Categories
With just eight campaigning days to go – Tories still strong favourites to take Batley & Spen – poli
With just eight campaigning days to go – Tories still strong favourites to take Batley & Spen – politicalbetting.com
The chart shows the latest betting on next week’s by-election in Batley & Spen where Labour is pinning its hopes on Jo Cox’s sister to see them home in what could be a tricky contest. This isn’t helped by ex LAB and then Respect MP, George Galloway standing on an anti-Starmer platform.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
Not exactly confident.
O/T - Can someone explain to me why discussions of white privilege which really only started in the UK in the last few years is the reason why white working class children have had poor educational outcomes for decades?
Am I missing something major or are people talking shite?
England have two players in isolation because they briefly came into contact with Billy Gilmour but no Scotland player or coaching staff have been in close contact with Billy Gilmour.
An absolute disgrace.
One win in the south doesn't mean they're going to win everywhere.
The other example is from 1962.
It is inexplicable and frankly absurd
Scotland deserve to be humiliated on a par with the times they drew with Iran and The Faroe Islands.
Whilst I am not SKS's greatest fan, the blame for the unnecessary by-election in B&S is properly laid at Tracy Brabin's door.
She saw a lucrative & more powerful position, and went for it -- heedless of the difficulties it would make for Labour.
If she had wanted to stand for Mayor, she should have stood down in December 1999 as MP for B&S.
If we see an outbreak in the Croatian team at the weekend, we know exactly what has REALLY happened.
The attitude of aggressive disparagement towards the working class is not. As is the recognition that this disparagement is not applied to the same behaviours when evinced by members of protected minority groups.
I suggest you try this book by a noted right wing, reactionary extremist (Owen Jones) - https://www.amazon.co.uk/s?k=9781781683989
I've read the SC report - absolutely no evidence on the 'white privilege' thing, and as you say white w/c poor/FSM children have had the poorest educational outcomes of all social groups (except those in care) ever since meaningful data started being collected about 30 years ago.
YouGov: Do Britons think the process of Brexit complete?
ALL BRITONS
Yes - 9% / No - 72%
REMAIN VOTERS
Yes - 6% / No - 81%
LEAVE VOTERS
Yes - 13% / No - 71%
https://t.co/R96KVhVMVE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfduUFF_i1A
Yes - 110% / No - Shut Up!!!
If you look at the stats you can tell roughly where most people will end up in an educational outcome by their class and the occupation of their parents, which is why you see so many black and other non white children at the bottom of the education league tables.
My life outcome was largely determined by the fact my father was a doctor from Dore, if my father had been a bus driver from Darnall I know my life outcomes would be so much different for the worse.
It does feel like only the little people have to follow the rules.
UK Polls all over the place currently - for every ComRes, there's a Delta Poll showing the Conservatives ahead 41-35 with the LDs on 10 so perhaps we need some time for the latest events to settle, percolate or not.
Elsewhere, the latest INSA poll in Germany as follows:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 28.5% (-4.5)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 19% (+10)
SPD-S&D: 15.5% (-5)
FDP-RE: 14% (+3)
AfD-ID: 10.5% (-2)
LINKE-LEFT: 7% (-2)
Changes from the 2017 Bundestag election shown.
Better for the Union than the mid-20s of a month ago but all still very much to play for with the FDP continuing to edge up towards their 2009 result when, under Westerwelle, they won 93 seats and 14.8% of the vote. Both the Union and the SPD are staring at their worst results since 1945 by quite some way and of course for the Greens their best by a very long way.
By the way, if you want to see how wrong polls can be, last Sunday's Armenia result is one for the records. A remarkable "win" for Civil Contract and the supposedly unpopular Pashinyan, who, despite presiding over a humiliating military defeat, lost only 16 seats in the Parliament and still won 72 of 101. One wonders what he would have to do to lose his majority (or perhaps one shouldn't).
The effects of parents from portions of the Hindu Indian community ramming their children through medical school, accountancy (and now IT) are very evident, for example.
Recently, in New York, the more liberal types were fighting a battle to stop all the places at certain high achieving state schools going to members of the Chinese community. Because the poor people in that community were doing things like spending literally half their income on tutors for little Johnny.
The outbreak of hostilities in Israel/Gaza came at a bad time, and I would guess Galloway -- ever the brilliantly cynical exploiter of opportunities -- has taken enough Muslim votes to gift the seat to the Tories.
It also did occur to me that Kim Leadbetter might find rather more scrutiny into her private life as a by-election candidate than as director of a local charity.
Again, if Labour wanted to change the MP at B&S from Tracy Brabin to Kim Leadbetter (who seems very well qualified for the position), it would have been better to do this at GE 2019.
Years ago I lived in Bradford and I would have been much more confident that someone who was gifted in the Muslim community would have a better chance of social mobility than someone from the large sink estate of white people
Though obviously I accept you are talking in generalisations and what you say is generally true.
Though being working poor is not such a disadvantage if you are lucky enough to be from a stable family which values education.The real killer of chances is a poor and chaotic background.
"There’s only one George Galloway. Six-term Parliamentarian, freedom fighter, man of the world. Writer, broadcaster, film-maker. Football and boxing enthusiast, movie-goer, box-set binger. Husband, father of five children, Scottish of Irish background, honorary Palestinian, Iraqi, Syrian, Egyptian… Friend of Fidel Castro, Hugo Chavez, Benazir Bhutto, Yasser Arafat, Tariq Aziz. Trembling with indignation at any injustice, anywhere."
https://www.georgegalloway.com
1. Pretend that we are taking the rules about Covid tracing and isolation seriously, even though we aren't in this instance
2. Ensure that the English authorities aren't accused of only picking on the Scots
3. Keep both sides in the tournament, rather than becoming hugely unpopular (and risking an international incident) by forcing them - or, even worse, Scotland but not England - to isolate en masse (and, by extension, withdraw from the competition and disrupt the whole tournament in the process)
It's all quite arbitrary and has nothing really to do with suppressing the wretched virus at all, beyond conning the general public into believing that the rules apply equally to everyone and should therefore continue to be tolerated. They don't, of course.
Of course it is nowhere near complete and this poll does not surprise me at all
I doubt I would be even at 10%
But the parents with kids are probably shopping online much more at the minute.
As someone who was educated in class sizes of around 10-14 pupils I maintain that is one of the major reasons public schools have such good outcomes.
Even if you're the best teacher in the world you won't be able to help pupils when class sizes are approaching the mid 20s.
Not for me, Clive.
BWC kids were in fact doing slightly worse than before, IIRC
2Walker
5Stones
6Maguire
3Shaw
14Phillips
4Rice
25Saka
7Grealish
10Sterling
9Kane
What's Sancho done wrong? Foden not even on the bench
Anything other than A was seen as a failure (well apart from art, I can't draw stick men, my father gave me a pass on that),
I was lucky in the respect that every good grade I usually received a nice reward from my parents which they could more than afford.
Although I had to wait until after my GCSEs to get Sky because my father was worried getting Sky would impact my grades.
"Hello, my name is Inigo Montoya, you killed my father, prepare to die."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/57551368
Who could England get if they come 3rd? Because it sounds like a good idea to throw this one..
I can see him damaging Labour big time but I don't think he has a hope in hell of actually winning, even with a low turn out. The Tories will hold around 40%, many LDs and Greens will vote tactically for Labour. Where does GG get his majority from?
I can see Tory 40, Lab 40+10 (LD and Green) - say 20 to GG. So Lab 30 and GG 20.
What scenario gives GG a majority? I cannot see it.
I think the spectacular 2012 Bradford West by-election with a 36% swing is colouring views. But GG is not the fresh exciting breath of fresh air that he was. He's well past his sell by date.
Mr Galloway has been spending time getting to know residents and business owners in Batley and Spen"
https://www.examinerlive.co.uk/news/west-yorkshire-news/george-galloway-settles-heckmondwike-morrisons-20856279
Obviously nothing confirmed yet but Southgate didn't seem too convinced. Big blow to lose Mount in particular?
----
Madness.....just test him every day. Its a week until the last 16 match.
There's going to be a lot of gutted kids, so long as the Lego store remains open then I'll be happy, oops, the kids will be happy.
Taking attendance of 37 must have taken up most of the lesson.
Have to say building epic Lego sets kept me sane during lockdown.
I’ve been held at gunpoint in the Lebanon, strafed by Israelis in the mountains, and attacked with a knife in Marseilles, I’ve been slammed in jail as an innocent man. I’ve overdosed on heroin multiple times, I’ve been trapped on a troop train in Siberia, I’ve been lost in the murderous desert of Sechura next a puma rape room. I’ve climbed the high lava lakes of Ethiopia, I’ve lingered in the deathliest place on earth (Yungay, Chile), I’ve broken down in Death Valley, I’ve kayaked in Antarctica with the inventor of Antarctic kayaking (who got scared by the conditions), I’ve jumped off the Dolomites with the world champion paraglider, I’ve had near-fatal heatstroke in Namibia, I’ve smoked dope through the thighbone of a springbok with the last San bushmen, and I once scored crack in Alphabet City, NYC, IN THE 80S - but nothing has fucked with my head so much as a woman. They are brutal
Edit: FU, FU.
And we all know what comes after that.
I think the most likely scenario is that Galloway takes enough from Labour to hand the seat to the Conservatives, albeit with the Conservative vote share barely changing from 2019.
My kids lost interest in Lego around the time I bought them a Playstation, which was back in 2016.
Curiously the family spend on Lego has gone up since 2016.
When I was about 14 and screaming from boredom in a provinicial English city, I swore to myself I would not have a boring life, and I would have loads of stories
I managed all that. But at some cost. Risk comes at a cost. To others as much as oneself
Can you get a PS5 retail in the U.K. yet? Still no sign of them out here, except for a few scalpers