Interestingly, there is one PM currently hitting @Leon's age sweet spot. Step forward David Cameron. If he'd just taken over from the ageing Blair, I should imagine we would 've been in a very different place.
Neil Henderson @hendopolis · 27s INDEPENDENT DIGITAL: Summer death toll could hit 40,000 #TomorrowsPapersToday
If that is half way accurate, we are all f##ked....but I have a feeling their model is nonsense.
I, who I would say is on the pessimistic end, believe that to be a garbage number.
Based on the very scientific method of taking your guess that the current hotspots look like they could be 50% as bad as the autumn wave and eyeballing the national graph from last year I came up with a number of 10k.
Where on earth are you getting anything like 50% from?
Bolton: October 46 deaths, November (101), December (74), Jan (100), Feb (75)
It’s a difficult decision to make but hospitalisations and, significantly, ventilation beds in the NW are looking ominous. Hopefully things won’t be as bad this time round but a tough decision to make.
I said earlier today that the key figures wasn't cases, hospital occupancy or even admissions.
I said it was mechanical ventilation numbers.
And that I was fairly relaxed.
However I didn't realise the NW mechanical ventilation numbers were rising so fast. Still about half the speed of autumn so not pant shitting just yet but unequivocally cause for concern.
Boris should resign obviously.
That scale is extremely misleading, worthy of that Hames fellow from last year. It shows the current wave as a proportion of the previous wave, on a logarithmic scale. It should be on a linear scale becuase both series (wave 2 and wave 3) are exponential.
I am basing my pessimism off of looking at the absolute numbers not that chart.
The raw numbers don't seem to show anything like the rate of increase they did last September:
I kinda like Sleepy Joe (apart from the creepy bits), and I feel sorry for a rather doddery but well meaning old man with a sad life story, but I really really doubt he can see out this term, let alone win another won. Bet accordingly
The opposite, if Harris replaces Biden as the Democratic candidate in 2024 then Trump has an excellent chance of returning to the Oval Office in 2024 to complete his second term.
A Mclaughlin poll last month had Trump beating Harris 49% to 45% (p13).
Biden had an approval rating of 53% in the poll but just 47% had a favourable view of Harris.
It was only because Biden had enough appeal to a sufficient number of the white working class in the rustbelt swing states last year that Trump was beaten in my view, if the Democrats replace him with a woke candidate Trump will be back with a vengeance.
Neil Henderson @hendopolis · 27s INDEPENDENT DIGITAL: Summer death toll could hit 40,000 #TomorrowsPapersToday
If that is half way accurate, we are all f##ked....but I have a feeling their model is nonsense.
I, who I would say is on the pessimistic end, believe that to be a garbage number.
Based on the very scientific method of taking your guess that the current hotspots look like they could be 50% as bad as the autumn wave and eyeballing the national graph from last year I came up with a number of 10k.
Where on earth are you getting anything like 50% from?
Bolton: October 46 deaths, November (101), December (74), Jan (100), Feb (75)
It’s a difficult decision to make but hospitalisations and, significantly, ventilation beds in the NW are looking ominous. Hopefully things won’t be as bad this time round but a tough decision to make.
I said earlier today that the key figures wasn't cases, hospital occupancy or even admissions.
I said it was mechanical ventilation numbers.
And that I was fairly relaxed.
However I didn't realise the NW mechanical ventilation numbers were rising so fast. Still about half the speed of autumn so not pant shitting just yet but unequivocally cause for concern.
Boris should resign obviously.
That scale is extremely misleading, worthy of that Hames fellow from last year. It shows the current wave as a proportion of the previous wave, on a logarithmic scale. It should be on a linear scale becuase both series (wave 2 and wave 3) are exponential.
I am basing my pessimism off of looking at the absolute numbers not that chart.
The raw numbers don't seem to show anything like the rate of increase they did last September:
In the Northwest they are progressing about about half of autumn.
As I said, not trouser shitting.
But the danger is that the Northwest becomes the rest of the country.
But that's hospitals. Not deaths.
I think it's mechanical ventilation numbers, so a relatively good proxy for deaths.
Pretty large mountain to climb to get close i would say...
Looks like Stage 14 of Le Tour. Big chance for one of the sprinters who can survive the 2 big early climbs. Peter Sagan? Or maybe an Alaphillipe solo effort?
Ah, I guessed wrong. It's not Warwick, it's LSHTM. Another institution with a lot to answer for.
I'm reading the Indy write-up of this ridiculous model. It's a real peach. Note especially the following:
The LSHTM study submitted to Sage on 8 June said that a summer wave of infections comparable to those seen in spring and autumn 2020 could be expected, with a peak in August or September.
Well how very convenient. We must hunker down until the Autumn! The modellers will then claim that they've saved the NHS from collapse, release the blood curdling warnings of what will happen because of the cold weather and all the rest of the Autumnal excuses, and we'll be into the lockdown that they oh so desperately want to force upon us for the whole bloody Winter.
More than half of the hospitalisations and deaths are expected to occur in unvaccinated individuals, with deaths concentrated in the over-75 age group, said the paper.
What proportion of the over 75s have already been double jabbed? At a guess, something like 95%? Now, leaving aside the philosophical question of why we should suffer endless restrictions to protect a small minority of very, very selfish old crocs who put themselves in harms' way like this, how is the disease going to get at so many of them so quickly, against the backdrop of mass vaccination of most of the populace, good weather, and the fact that Delta has already been around for two months and has signally failed to cause any measurable increase in Covid deaths?
It's also at this point that we must once again recall that previous SAGE predictions of the impact of unlocking during the Spring have been hugely wide of the mark.
If the disease were as transmissible and lethal as these made up on the spot models, possessing as they do the predictive powers of Mystic Meg's bag of runes, suggest then we might as well give up and unlock anyway, because we're not going to be able to save any of these people. It will eventually seek and destroy the lot of them.
As it is, let's just say I remain less than wholly convinced...
One point - quite a few of the elderly non-vaccinated may have not been given the vaccine for medical reasons.
I do feel very sorry for the small minority of people who would really like the vaccines but can't have them - not just certain of the frail elderly but also some immunosuppressed persons, cancer patients and so on - but we've never mandated that the whole population should live in some kind of public health limbo to protect them from germs before, and we shouldn't start now.
EDIT: although that's one of the major excuses that I am afraid the Susan Michies of this world will deploy sooner rather than later: masks and social distancing forever, to create a hyperclean and as close to germ-free environment as possible.
The fact that this would likely have catastrophic long term consequences for human immune systems doesn't bother these people one iota, quite the reverse. The weaker they become, the more interventions would become necessary.
We'd all be spending our entire lives walking around in hazmat suits in twenty years' time.
The "germs rough up your immune system to make you a tougher, better person" isn't scientifically true.
People in the past just lived with appalling levels of disease.
IIRC it is something like 250K immunosuppressed people in the UK.
Neil Henderson @hendopolis · 27s INDEPENDENT DIGITAL: Summer death toll could hit 40,000 #TomorrowsPapersToday
If that is half way accurate, we are all f##ked....but I have a feeling their model is nonsense.
I, who I would say is on the pessimistic end, believe that to be a garbage number.
Based on the very scientific method of taking your guess that the current hotspots look like they could be 50% as bad as the autumn wave and eyeballing the national graph from last year I came up with a number of 10k.
Where on earth are you getting anything like 50% from?
Bolton: October 46 deaths, November (101), December (74), Jan (100), Feb (75)
It’s a difficult decision to make but hospitalisations and, significantly, ventilation beds in the NW are looking ominous. Hopefully things won’t be as bad this time round but a tough decision to make.
I said earlier today that the key figures wasn't cases, hospital occupancy or even admissions.
I said it was mechanical ventilation numbers.
And that I was fairly relaxed.
However I didn't realise the NW mechanical ventilation numbers were rising so fast. Still about half the speed of autumn so not pant shitting just yet but unequivocally cause for concern.
Boris should resign obviously.
That scale is extremely misleading, worthy of that Hames fellow from last year. It shows the current wave as a proportion of the previous wave, on a logarithmic scale. It should be on a linear scale becuase both series (wave 2 and wave 3) are exponential.
I am basing my pessimism off of looking at the absolute numbers not that chart.
The raw numbers don't seem to show anything like the rate of increase they did last September:
Neil Henderson @hendopolis · 27s INDEPENDENT DIGITAL: Summer death toll could hit 40,000 #TomorrowsPapersToday
If that is half way accurate, we are all f##ked....but I have a feeling their model is nonsense.
I, who I would say is on the pessimistic end, believe that to be a garbage number.
Based on the very scientific method of taking your guess that the current hotspots look like they could be 50% as bad as the autumn wave and eyeballing the national graph from last year I came up with a number of 10k.
Where on earth are you getting anything like 50% from?
Bolton: October 46 deaths, November (101), December (74), Jan (100), Feb (75)
It’s a difficult decision to make but hospitalisations and, significantly, ventilation beds in the NW are looking ominous. Hopefully things won’t be as bad this time round but a tough decision to make.
I said earlier today that the key figures wasn't cases, hospital occupancy or even admissions.
I said it was mechanical ventilation numbers.
And that I was fairly relaxed.
However I didn't realise the NW mechanical ventilation numbers were rising so fast. Still about half the speed of autumn so not pant shitting just yet but unequivocally cause for concern.
Boris should resign obviously.
That scale is extremely misleading, worthy of that Hames fellow from last year. It shows the current wave as a proportion of the previous wave, on a logarithmic scale. It should be on a linear scale becuase both series (wave 2 and wave 3) are exponential.
I am basing my pessimism off of looking at the absolute numbers not that chart.
The raw numbers don't seem to show anything like the rate of increase they did last September:
I kinda like Sleepy Joe (apart from the creepy bits), and I feel sorry for a rather doddery but well meaning old man with a sad life story, but I really really doubt he can see out this term, let alone win another won. Bet accordingly
In which case, bet on Harris for the nomination next time around: no matter how lacking in charisma she is, she'll be the sitting President.
I kinda like Sleepy Joe (apart from the creepy bits), and I feel sorry for a rather doddery but well meaning old man with a sad life story, but I really really doubt he can see out this term, let alone win another won. Bet accordingly
In which case, bet on Harris for the nomination next time around: no matter how lacking in charisma she is, she'll be the sitting President.
Then prepare for Trump 2 - The Revenge in 2024
Biden in ICU in a persistent vegetative state would be a better President than Trump.
I kinda like Sleepy Joe (apart from the creepy bits), and I feel sorry for a rather doddery but well meaning old man with a sad life story, but I really really doubt he can see out this term, let alone win another won. Bet accordingly
The opposite, if Harris replaces Biden as the Democratic candidate in 2024 then Trump has an excellent chance of returning to the Oval Office in 2024 to complete his second term.
A Mclaughlin poll last month had Trump beating Harris 49% to 45% (p13).
Biden had an approval rating of 53% in the poll but just 47% had a favourable view of Harris.
It was only because Biden had enough appeal to a sufficient number of the white working class in the rustbelt swing states last year that Trump was beaten in my view, if the Democrats replace him with a woke candidate Trump will be back with a vengeance.
Trump aint coming back under any scenario involving even vaguely fair democratic processes.
I don't care what random polling you dig out. And regardless of what anyone thinks about Biden, anyone who thinks Trump hasn't got serious mental impairment issues isn't looking very hard. And with a strong genetic pre-disposition to boot.
The only thing i'll give you is that she obviously isn't a slam dunk or anything close to it. But against somebody a lot saner or viable than Trump
I kinda like Sleepy Joe (apart from the creepy bits), and I feel sorry for a rather doddery but well meaning old man with a sad life story, but I really really doubt he can see out this term, let alone win another won. Bet accordingly
In which case, bet on Harris for the nomination next time around: no matter how lacking in charisma she is, she'll be the sitting President.
Then prepare for Trump 2 - The Revenge in 2024
Biden in ICU in a persistent vegetative state would be a better President than Trump.
Konstantin Chernenko in his *current state* would be a better president.
I kinda like Sleepy Joe (apart from the creepy bits), and I feel sorry for a rather doddery but well meaning old man with a sad life story, but I really really doubt he can see out this term, let alone win another won. Bet accordingly
In which case, bet on Harris for the nomination next time around: no matter how lacking in charisma she is, she'll be the sitting President.
Then prepare for Trump 2 - The Revenge in 2024
Biden in ICU in a persistent vegetative state would be a better President than Trump.
The Democrats might need to nominate Biden even if he is in ICU in a persistent vegatative state as he would still be more likely to beat Trump than Harris would be
Ah, I guessed wrong. It's not Warwick, it's LSHTM. Another institution with a lot to answer for.
I'm reading the Indy write-up of this ridiculous model. It's a real peach. Note especially the following:
The LSHTM study submitted to Sage on 8 June said that a summer wave of infections comparable to those seen in spring and autumn 2020 could be expected, with a peak in August or September.
Well how very convenient. We must hunker down until the Autumn! The modellers will then claim that they've saved the NHS from collapse, release the blood curdling warnings of what will happen because of the cold weather and all the rest of the Autumnal excuses, and we'll be into the lockdown that they oh so desperately want to force upon us for the whole bloody Winter.
More than half of the hospitalisations and deaths are expected to occur in unvaccinated individuals, with deaths concentrated in the over-75 age group, said the paper.
What proportion of the over 75s have already been double jabbed? At a guess, something like 95%? Now, leaving aside the philosophical question of why we should suffer endless restrictions to protect a small minority of very, very selfish old crocs who put themselves in harms' way like this, how is the disease going to get at so many of them so quickly, against the backdrop of mass vaccination of most of the populace, good weather, and the fact that Delta has already been around for two months and has signally failed to cause any measurable increase in Covid deaths?
It's also at this point that we must once again recall that previous SAGE predictions of the impact of unlocking during the Spring have been hugely wide of the mark.
If the disease were as transmissible and lethal as these made up on the spot models, possessing as they do the predictive powers of Mystic Meg's bag of runes, suggest then we might as well give up and unlock anyway, because we're not going to be able to save any of these people. It will eventually seek and destroy the lot of them.
As it is, let's just say I remain less than wholly convinced...
One point - quite a few of the elderly non-vaccinated may have not been given the vaccine for medical reasons.
I do feel very sorry for the small minority of people who would really like the vaccines but can't have them - not just certain of the frail elderly but also some immunosuppressed persons, cancer patients and so on - but we've never mandated that the whole population should live in some kind of public health limbo to protect them from germs before, and we shouldn't start now.
EDIT: although that's one of the major excuses that I am afraid the Susan Michies of this world will deploy sooner rather than later: masks and social distancing forever, to create a hyperclean and as close to germ-free environment as possible.
The fact that this would likely have catastrophic long term consequences for human immune systems doesn't bother these people one iota, quite the reverse. The weaker they become, the more interventions would become necessary.
We'd all be spending our entire lives walking around in hazmat suits in twenty years' time.
The "germs rough up your immune system to make you a tougher, better person" isn't scientifically true.
People in the past just lived with appalling levels of disease.
IIRC it is something like 250K immunosuppressed people in the UK.
Strongly implicated in allergies at least, though.
Besides infectious disease suppression can genuinely cause serious problems further down the line. We know that the medics are already terrified of a massive flu season this year, after last year's appeared to have been wiped out by the restrictions (which will be one of the major planks in the Michie Brigade's strategy to persuade Johnson to bend to masks and distancing for the rest of time.) And here's another one I recently came across by chance:
Scientists are concerned that measures to combat Covid-19 have weakened the immune systems of young children who have not been able to build up resistance to common bugs, leaving them vulnerable when mask-wearing and social distancing eventually end.
Contact with viral pathogens happens on a fairly regular basis and although it does not always lead to sickness, the exposure helps shore the immune system against the threat should the bugs be encountered again.
Over the past 14 months or so, protracted restrictions on mixing and travel, alongside mask-wearing and social distancing, have not only reduced the risk of Covid but other respiratory bugs such as the flu – cases of which were basically nonexistent last winter, according to surveillance data largely encompassing England compiled by the Royal College of GPs (RCGP).
The article goes on to describe RSV, a disease that particularly affects babies which is already causing alarm bells of the "paediatric intensive care to be overwhelmed" variety. You can just imagine how a condition like that could be weaponised by the lockdown ultras. "If you don't support restrictions forever then babies will die and it will be your fault" would be just the sort of line they would relish taking.
The longer the restrictions persist for, the more they and the problems they cause risk turning into a vicious circle.
I kinda like Sleepy Joe (apart from the creepy bits), and I feel sorry for a rather doddery but well meaning old man with a sad life story, but I really really doubt he can see out this term, let alone win another won. Bet accordingly
In which case, bet on Harris for the nomination next time around: no matter how lacking in charisma she is, she'll be the sitting President.
Then prepare for Trump 2 - The Revenge in 2024
Biden in ICU in a persistent vegetative state would be a better President than Trump.
The Democrats might need to nominate Biden even if he is in ICU in a persistent vegatative state as he would still be more likely to beat Trump than Harris would be
Someone should run a poll:
Trump vs Biden both in a permanent vegetative state.
"Priti Patel has criticised the England football team for taking the knee at the European Championships, accusing them of engaging in gesture politics.
In contrast to Boris Johnson urging the country not to boo England players for their protest, his home secretary said that it was the fans’ choice whether they did so." (£)
Well, I have just done it, resigned form the conservative party. I know full well it will make no difference. but at least it separates me slightly from the Balls up.
I'm sure many have contemplated similar.
I'm sticking around; I want to be able to vote for Baker if necessary.
Steve Baker as leader?
He might be right on covid restrictions, but he's a barking mad voter repellent.
Yes, but since when has been barking mad and voter repellent been a problem for leadership challengers?
I once spent a relatively well lubricated evening with my old university tutor arguing that Steve Baker was a value bet during the last leadership election. My thought at the time was that if the main criteria for leading the party was Brexit zealotry then he was the logical conclusion. Maybe if COVID skepticism takes hold of the party I'll be proved right.
As an aside I've worked with him and he's incredibly nice despite being against almost everything I believe in.
I kinda like Sleepy Joe (apart from the creepy bits), and I feel sorry for a rather doddery but well meaning old man with a sad life story, but I really really doubt he can see out this term, let alone win another won. Bet accordingly
The opposite, if Harris replaces Biden as the Democratic candidate in 2024 then Trump has an excellent chance of returning to the Oval Office in 2024 to complete his second term.
A Mclaughlin poll last month had Trump beating Harris 49% to 45% (p13).
Biden had an approval rating of 53% in the poll but just 47% had a favourable view of Harris.
It was only because Biden had enough appeal to a sufficient number of the white working class in the rustbelt swing states last year that Trump was beaten in my view, if the Democrats replace him with a woke candidate Trump will be back with a vengeance.
Trump aint coming back under any scenario involving even vaguely fair democratic processes.
I don't care what random polling you dig out. And regardless of what anyone thinks about Biden, anyone who thinks Trump hasn't got serious mental impairment issues isn't looking very hard. And with a strong genetic pre-disposition to boot.
The only thing i'll give you is that she obviously isn't a slam dunk or anything close to it. But against somebody a lot saner or viable than Trump
57% of Republican primary voters would vote for Trump if he runs again in 2024, miles ahead of second placed Pence on 10% and De Santis on 8% in 3rd.
Well, I have just done it, resigned form the conservative party. I know full well it will make no difference. but at least it separates me slightly from the Balls up.
I'm sure many have contemplated similar.
I'm sticking around; I want to be able to vote for Baker if necessary.
Steve Baker as leader?
He might be right on covid restrictions, but he's a barking mad voter repellent.
Yes, but since when has been barking mad and voter repellent been a problem for leadership challengers?
I once spent a relatively well lubricated evening with my old university tutor arguing that Steve Baker was a value bet during the last leadership election. My thought at the time was that if the main criteria for leading the party was Brexit zealotry then he was the logical conclusion. Maybe if COVID skepticism takes hold of the party I'll be proved right.
As an aside I've worked with him and he's incredibly nice despite being against almost everything I believe in.
I’ve talked about backing him for next PM a lot, but can’t remember if I have
"Priti Patel has criticised the England football team for taking the knee at the European Championships, accusing them of engaging in gesture politics.
In contrast to Boris Johnson urging the country not to boo England players for their protest, his home secretary said that it was the fans’ choice whether they did so." (£)
All the talk is of accelerating second doses yet the average gap is now 79 - 80 days.
I'd be interested to know how they calculate the "average gap". Is it distorted by second vaccine refuseniks, or does it only include info from those who have had two jabs. ie. if somebody had an AZ in say early Feb, but has avoided having a second, do they appear in the figures as a 4 month gap (and counting)?
Well, I have just done it, resigned form the conservative party. I know full well it will make no difference. but at least it separates me slightly from the Balls up.
I'm sure many have contemplated similar.
I'm sticking around; I want to be able to vote for Baker if necessary.
Steve Baker as leader?
He might be right on covid restrictions, but he's a barking mad voter repellent.
Yes, but since when has been barking mad and voter repellent been a problem for leadership challengers?
I once spent a relatively well lubricated evening with my old university tutor arguing that Steve Baker was a value bet during the last leadership election. My thought at the time was that if the main criteria for leading the party was Brexit zealotry then he was the logical conclusion. Maybe if COVID skepticism takes hold of the party I'll be proved right.
As an aside I've worked with him and he's incredibly nice despite being against almost everything I believe in.
I’ve talked about backing him for next PM a lot, but can’t remember if I have
£14 at 80ish/1 next Con leader
He also quite obviously expected a decent ministerial appointment under Boris and didn't get it. I can see him leading a coup attempt, although maybe not succeeding.
As with most PM's with a big majority Boris is getting too big for his boots!
Boris should reflect that he was only give his 80 seat majority to "Get Brexit Done" and it can be taken away from him as easily as it was given to him..,.
I find it odd how the JCVI decision was a) for people aged 18-30 to be given the opportunity to make an informed decision to take AstraZeneca and b) for risks of AZ to be weighed against circulation of virus/speed of rollout - yet the first didn't happen and neither is the second
All the talk is of accelerating second doses yet the average gap is now 79 - 80 days.
I'd be interested to know how they calculate the "average gap". Is it distorted by second vaccine refuseniks, or does it only include info from those who have had two jabs. ie. if somebody had an AZ in say early Feb, but has avoided having a second, do they appear in the figures as a 4 month gap (and counting)?
Israel has a pretty mature vax program now. It's at 63.27% fully vaxxed and 59.42% single vaxxed. 3 weeks ago it was 59.12% and 62.86%.
There's ~3.44% of population who aren't bothering to get second vaxxed perhaps... If similar is happening in the UK then the gap between people actively seeking the second dose and first dose drops considerably.
Karen in the hair salon is probably wondering why she should bother with her second jab after today's disappointment.
Has there been any update on modified vaccines? Are we still going to start in September with boosters?
If they are, how long before SAGE tells Johnson he needs to hold off on Step 4 until all adults have had their boosters?
I give it four weeks.
Nah, they won't be ready until 2022, Pfizer have updated clients and told them that booster jabs are Q12022 delivery at the earliest. Moderna are saying late Q4 but we haven't bought any and even that's probably going to slip to Q12022 as regulators figure out what kind of trials they need for modified vaccines.
So full lockdown by October it is then...
It wouldn't surprise me at all, regardless of what kind of boosters are or are not available.
FWIW, I'm pretty sure I recall Windbag wibbling about boosters at his presser this evening, but if there is a campaign it looks like it's going to end up consisting of unmodified AZ and keeping our fingers crossed that the variant issues don't get significantly worse. If Max is right then we can forget about mRNA and Novavax might not arrive this side of the heat death of the universe.
We've got 60m Pfizer doses for H2 and ostensibly 50m CureVac for Q2 also. We'll have about 40m leftover from Pfizer for booster shots. I have no idea why the government hasn't bought all of the Moderna it can. It should be approaching Moderna for UK based manufacturing and giving them all of the subsidies in the world. We need to replace AZ as the long term vaccine and Moderna feels like a good fit.
It does seem that mRNA is the future, the lack of investment into mRNA is beginning to look like a real problem.
I find it odd how the JCVI decision was a) for people aged 18-30 to be given the opportunity to make an informed decision to take AstraZeneca and b) for risks of AZ to be weighed against circulation of virus/speed of rollout - yet the first didn't happen and neither is the second
I find it odd how the JCVI decision was a) for people aged 18-30 to be given the opportunity to make an informed decision to take AstraZeneca and b) for risks of AZ to be weighed against circulation of virus/speed of rollout - yet the first didn't happen and neither is the second
I wonder if there is an optimum age to become a Very Senior Politician
On a hunch, I'd say yes, just as there is an optimum age to be a top lyric poet (early 20s), mathematician (20s), goalkeeper (around 30?), novelist (30s-60s), flint knapper (78!), and so on
A great politician needs at least some of the vigour of youth, combined with the wisdom and neutrality of age, plus the advanced social network of midlife. And the experience gained thereby
As Margaret Thatcher was clearly our greatest ever prime minister I'm taking her as an examplar. She was 54 when she became prime minister. Young enough to work insane hours, old enough to have acquired great social networks, much life experience - and to judge people, shrewdly (a skill that really does only come with age)
54 then, That's it. That's the ideal age to take the top job. I'm not far beyond this so if anyone wants to suggest that I become PM in the Covid Coalition I won't resist.
Frankly, I would have done better than Boris since late January 2020
Mrs Thatcher would certainly have followed the science, as she did with AIDS and global warming, and arguably economics too. But remember by the end Mrs Thatcher had begun her mental decline, possibly not helped by a decade of self-imposed sleep deprivation. So 54 may be too old (or more likely, we should follow the Americans and kick them out after eight years at the top).
2/3rds of adults 2nd dosed, all adults offered 1st dose and UK supply of 2.6 million a week means an average rollout to 19th July of 228633 firsts and 142796 seconds.
Hancock was asked in the Commons if he would rule out the reimposition of restrictions in Autumn if there were signs of rising case numbers. He refused.
Now it’s a tool in the Govt armoury, and a tool that can be deployed with public support no less, they clearly have no intention of giving it away. Even if Covid is utterly defeated. All they need is to roll out the models and crank up the rhetoric and... bingo! It’ll work for every winter NHS crisis for ever more. And basically makes any sort of business potentially affected by such decisions impossible when three months trade can be effectively taken away via ministerial diktat.
Hancock was asked in the Commons if he would rule out the reimposition of restrictions in Autumn if there were signs of rising case numbers. He refused.
Now it’s a tool in the Govt armoury, and a tool that can be deployed with public support no less, they clearly have no intention of giving it away. Even if Covid is utterly defeated. All they need is to roll out the models and crank up the rhetoric and... bingo! It’ll work for every winter NHS crisis for ever more. And basically makes any sort of business potentially affected by such decisions impossible when three months trade can be effectively taken away via ministerial diktat.
Well, I have just done it, resigned form the conservative party. I know full well it will make no difference. but at least it separates me slightly from the Balls up.
I'm sure many have contemplated similar.
I'm sticking around; I want to be able to vote for Baker if necessary.
Steve Baker as leader?
He might be right on covid restrictions, but he's a barking mad voter repellent.
Yes, but since when has been barking mad and voter repellent been a problem for leadership challengers?
I once spent a relatively well lubricated evening with my old university tutor arguing that Steve Baker was a value bet during the last leadership election. My thought at the time was that if the main criteria for leading the party was Brexit zealotry then he was the logical conclusion. Maybe if COVID skepticism takes hold of the party I'll be proved right.
As an aside I've worked with him and he's incredibly nice despite being against almost everything I believe in.
I’ve talked about backing him for next PM a lot, but can’t remember if I have
£14 at 80ish/1 next Con leader
He also quite obviously expected a decent ministerial appointment under Boris and didn't get it. I can see him leading a coup attempt, although maybe not succeeding.
Wasn't he given a bit of a hurry up in his seat? I thought he stepped back to protect his majority? Wycombe is trending away from the Tories as fast as almost anywhere ISTR.
All the talk is of accelerating second doses yet the average gap is now 79 - 80 days.
I'd be interested to know how they calculate the "average gap". Is it distorted by second vaccine refuseniks, or does it only include info from those who have had two jabs. ie. if somebody had an AZ in say early Feb, but has avoided having a second, do they appear in the figures as a 4 month gap (and counting)?
Israel has a pretty mature vax program now. It's at 63.27% fully vaxxed and 59.42% single vaxxed. 3 weeks ago it was 59.12% and 62.86%.
There's ~3.44% of population who aren't bothering to get second vaxxed perhaps... If similar is happening in the UK then the gap between people actively seeking the second dose and first dose drops considerably.
Karen in the hair salon is probably wondering why she should bother with her second jab after today's disappointment.
What would be the logic behind getting first and not second? Can't see it myself.
I find it odd how the JCVI decision was a) for people aged 18-30 to be given the opportunity to make an informed decision to take AstraZeneca and b) for risks of AZ to be weighed against circulation of virus/speed of rollout - yet the first didn't happen and neither is the second
The returns of delaying past 4 weeks start to err.. diminish as Vallance said.
The “diminishing returns” argument rests on 1) dismissing the option of reversing the road map and 2) the idea that it is better to ride out this wave in summer rather than autumn/winter. It is purely a comparison between two scenarios neither of which do much (through restrictions alone) to impede the spread of the virus.
Of course neither 1), nor the possibility of a further waves in winter are ruled out...
All the talk is of accelerating second doses yet the average gap is now 79 - 80 days.
I'd be interested to know how they calculate the "average gap". Is it distorted by second vaccine refuseniks, or does it only include info from those who have had two jabs. ie. if somebody had an AZ in say early Feb, but has avoided having a second, do they appear in the figures as a 4 month gap (and counting)?
Israel has a pretty mature vax program now. It's at 63.27% fully vaxxed and 59.42% single vaxxed. 3 weeks ago it was 59.12% and 62.86%.
There's ~3.44% of population who aren't bothering to get second vaxxed perhaps... If similar is happening in the UK then the gap between people actively seeking the second dose and first dose drops considerably.
Karen in the hair salon is probably wondering why she should bother with her second jab after today's disappointment.
What would be the logic behind getting first and not second? Can't see it myself.
People who had the first AZ dose before there were any safety concerns raised about it. Including people under 40. The rules of course don’t prevent them having a second dose, but it wouldn’t be surprising if some chose to opt out.
Also people who just had a bad reaction first time and don’t want to do it again.
Hancock was asked in the Commons if he would rule out the reimposition of restrictions in Autumn if there were signs of rising case numbers. He refused.
Now it’s a tool in the Govt armoury, and a tool that can be deployed with public support no less, they clearly have no intention of giving it away. Even if Covid is utterly defeated. All they need is to roll out the models and crank up the rhetoric and... bingo! It’ll work for every winter NHS crisis for ever more. And basically makes any sort of business potentially affected by such decisions impossible when three months trade can be effectively taken away via ministerial diktat.
The Germans have a long tradition of very hefty swingback. Seems to be repeating. Nevertheless. Those are still stonking figures for the Greens. And very impressive FDP. And poor for AfD and Linke. Seems discontent with the governing Parties has drifted to the sensible alternatives.
Hancock was asked in the Commons if he would rule out the reimposition of restrictions in Autumn if there were signs of rising case numbers. He refused.
Now it’s a tool in the Govt armoury, and a tool that can be deployed with public support no less, they clearly have no intention of giving it away. Even if Covid is utterly defeated. All they need is to roll out the models and crank up the rhetoric and... bingo! It’ll work for every winter NHS crisis for ever more. And basically makes any sort of business potentially affected by such decisions impossible when three months trade can be effectively taken away via ministerial diktat.
The 1922 will remove Boris if this goes on much longer I'm convinced of that...
All the talk is of accelerating second doses yet the average gap is now 79 - 80 days.
I'd be interested to know how they calculate the "average gap". Is it distorted by second vaccine refuseniks, or does it only include info from those who have had two jabs. ie. if somebody had an AZ in say early Feb, but has avoided having a second, do they appear in the figures as a 4 month gap (and counting)?
Israel has a pretty mature vax program now. It's at 63.27% fully vaxxed and 59.42% single vaxxed. 3 weeks ago it was 59.12% and 62.86%.
There's ~3.44% of population who aren't bothering to get second vaxxed perhaps... If similar is happening in the UK then the gap between people actively seeking the second dose and first dose drops considerably.
Karen in the hair salon is probably wondering why she should bother with her second jab after today's disappointment.
What would be the logic behind getting first and not second? Can't see it myself.
People who had the first AZ dose before there were any safety concerns raised about it. Including people under 40. The rules of course don’t prevent them having a second dose, but it wouldn’t be surprising if some chose to opt out.
Also people who just had a bad reaction first time and don’t want to do it again.
OK, thanks. Seems a bit thin. AZ problems seem to be exclusively first dose, and, if you've had a bad reaction, maybe an indication of how bad a bout of Covid might be? Nowt as queer as folk, I suppose.
Hancock was asked in the Commons if he would rule out the reimposition of restrictions in Autumn if there were signs of rising case numbers. He refused.
Now it’s a tool in the Govt armoury, and a tool that can be deployed with public support no less, they clearly have no intention of giving it away. Even if Covid is utterly defeated. All they need is to roll out the models and crank up the rhetoric and... bingo! It’ll work for every winter NHS crisis for ever more. And basically makes any sort of business potentially affected by such decisions impossible when three months trade can be effectively taken away via ministerial diktat.
The 1922 will remove Boris if this goes on much longer I'm convinced of that...
83 majority. Opinion poll lead of c.13%. Upcoming double by-election wins for one net gain. 70%+ support for this extension. Why on Earth would they do such a thing?
Hancock was asked in the Commons if he would rule out the reimposition of restrictions in Autumn if there were signs of rising case numbers. He refused.
Now it’s a tool in the Govt armoury, and a tool that can be deployed with public support no less, they clearly have no intention of giving it away. Even if Covid is utterly defeated. All they need is to roll out the models and crank up the rhetoric and... bingo! It’ll work for every winter NHS crisis for ever more. And basically makes any sort of business potentially affected by such decisions impossible when three months trade can be effectively taken away via ministerial diktat.
The 1922 will remove Boris if this goes on much longer I'm convinced of that...
83 majority. Opinion poll lead of c.13%. Upcoming double by-election wins for one net gain. 70%+ support for this extension. Why on Earth would they do such a thing?
Because fundamentally this can't go on indefinitely... Boris was elected to "Get Brexit Done" not to keep us all under house arrest for years on end while he goes swanning around Cornwall and Belgium living it up with global leaders (none of whom bother with social distancing, face masks etc etc themselves seemingly...)
Hancock was asked in the Commons if he would rule out the reimposition of restrictions in Autumn if there were signs of rising case numbers. He refused.
Now it’s a tool in the Govt armoury, and a tool that can be deployed with public support no less, they clearly have no intention of giving it away. Even if Covid is utterly defeated. All they need is to roll out the models and crank up the rhetoric and... bingo! It’ll work for every winter NHS crisis for ever more. And basically makes any sort of business potentially affected by such decisions impossible when three months trade can be effectively taken away via ministerial diktat.
The 1922 will remove Boris if this goes on much longer I'm convinced of that...
83 majority. Opinion poll lead of c.13%. Upcoming double by-election wins for one net gain. 70%+ support for this extension. Why on Earth would they do such a thing?
Because fundamentally this can't go on indefinitely... Boris was elected to "Get Brexit Done" not to keep us all under house arrest for years on end while he goes swanning around Cornwall and Belgium living it up with global leaders (none of whom bother with social distancing, face masks etc etc themselves seemingly...)
"Ever get the feeling you've been cheated? Good night." Never mind the bollocks.
Hancock was asked in the Commons if he would rule out the reimposition of restrictions in Autumn if there were signs of rising case numbers. He refused.
Now it’s a tool in the Govt armoury, and a tool that can be deployed with public support no less, they clearly have no intention of giving it away. Even if Covid is utterly defeated. All they need is to roll out the models and crank up the rhetoric and... bingo! It’ll work for every winter NHS crisis for ever more. And basically makes any sort of business potentially affected by such decisions impossible when three months trade can be effectively taken away via ministerial diktat.
The 1922 will remove Boris if this goes on much longer I'm convinced of that...
83 majority. Opinion poll lead of c.13%. Upcoming double by-election wins for one net gain. 70%+ support for this extension. Why on Earth would they do such a thing?
Because fundamentally this can't go on indefinitely... Boris was elected to "Get Brexit Done" not to keep us all under house arrest for years on end while he goes swanning around Cornwall and Belgium living it up with global leaders (none of whom bother with social distancing, face masks etc etc themselves seemingly...)
Ever get the feeling you've been cheated? Good night.
I've heard several people point out the hypocrisy of the government with the G7 and NATO summits over the past day or two. Boris and the global elites living it up while the plebs are being kept under lock and key.
I think it's playing very badly even with lockdown supporters. I'll be amazed of the Conservative poll rating doesn't crater in the weekend polls...
Hancock was asked in the Commons if he would rule out the reimposition of restrictions in Autumn if there were signs of rising case numbers. He refused.
Now it’s a tool in the Govt armoury, and a tool that can be deployed with public support no less, they clearly have no intention of giving it away. Even if Covid is utterly defeated. All they need is to roll out the models and crank up the rhetoric and... bingo! It’ll work for every winter NHS crisis for ever more. And basically makes any sort of business potentially affected by such decisions impossible when three months trade can be effectively taken away via ministerial diktat.
This might not be the case if the government had ever acted to increase NHS capacity to avoid annual NHS winter crises rather than deride those warnings.
Hancock was asked in the Commons if he would rule out the reimposition of restrictions in Autumn if there were signs of rising case numbers. He refused.
Now it’s a tool in the Govt armoury, and a tool that can be deployed with public support no less, they clearly have no intention of giving it away. Even if Covid is utterly defeated. All they need is to roll out the models and crank up the rhetoric and... bingo! It’ll work for every winter NHS crisis for ever more. And basically makes any sort of business potentially affected by such decisions impossible when three months trade can be effectively taken away via ministerial diktat.
The 1922 will remove Boris if this goes on much longer I'm convinced of that...
83 majority. Opinion poll lead of c.13%. Upcoming double by-election wins for one net gain. 70%+ support for this extension. Why on Earth would they do such a thing?
Because fundamentally this can't go on indefinitely... Boris was elected to "Get Brexit Done" not to keep us all under house arrest for years on end while he goes swanning around Cornwall and Belgium living it up with global leaders (none of whom bother with social distancing, face masks etc etc themselves seemingly...)
Ever get the feeling you've been cheated? Good night.
I've heard several people point out the hypocrisy of the government with the G7 and NATO summits over the past day or two. Boris and the global elites living it up while the plebs are being kept under lock and key.
I think it's playing very badly even with lockdown supporters. I'll be amazed of the Conservative poll rating doesn't crater in the weekend polls...
We shall see. Goodnight.
I predict it will balloon. No sign of any of these quarantining of course.
Comments
Step forward David Cameron.
If he'd just taken over from the ageing Blair, I should imagine we would 've been in a very different place.
Especially given suggestions that case numbers are already showing signs of plateauing/tailing off (graph is of mech vent in North West)
A Mclaughlin poll last month had Trump beating Harris 49% to 45% (p13).
Biden had an approval rating of 53% in the poll but just 47% had a favourable view of Harris.
It was only because Biden had enough appeal to a sufficient number of the white working class in the rustbelt swing states last year that Trump was beaten in my view, if the Democrats replace him with a woke candidate Trump will be back with a vengeance.
https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/National-Monthly-Omnibus-MAY-Release-1.pdf
Big chance for one of the sprinters who can survive the 2 big early climbs.
Peter Sagan?
Or maybe an Alaphillipe solo effort?
People in the past just lived with appalling levels of disease.
IIRC it is something like 250K immunosuppressed people in the UK.
His calculations are rational.
I don't care what random polling you dig out. And regardless of what anyone thinks about Biden, anyone who thinks Trump hasn't got serious mental impairment issues isn't looking very hard. And with a strong genetic pre-disposition to boot.
The only thing i'll give you is that she obviously isn't a slam dunk or anything close to it. But against somebody a lot saner or viable than Trump
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/558296-california-reopening-economy-lifting-covid-19-restrictions
Still a lot further ahead to freedom than we are though
Besides infectious disease suppression can genuinely cause serious problems further down the line. We know that the medics are already terrified of a massive flu season this year, after last year's appeared to have been wiped out by the restrictions (which will be one of the major planks in the Michie Brigade's strategy to persuade Johnson to bend to masks and distancing for the rest of time.) And here's another one I recently came across by chance:
Scientists are concerned that measures to combat Covid-19 have weakened the immune systems of young children who have not been able to build up resistance to common bugs, leaving them vulnerable when mask-wearing and social distancing eventually end.
Contact with viral pathogens happens on a fairly regular basis and although it does not always lead to sickness, the exposure helps shore the immune system against the threat should the bugs be encountered again.
Over the past 14 months or so, protracted restrictions on mixing and travel, alongside mask-wearing and social distancing, have not only reduced the risk of Covid but other respiratory bugs such as the flu – cases of which were basically nonexistent last winter, according to surveillance data largely encompassing England compiled by the Royal College of GPs (RCGP).
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/jun/09/covid-distancing-may-have-weakened-childrens-immune-system-experts-say
The article goes on to describe RSV, a disease that particularly affects babies which is already causing alarm bells of the "paediatric intensive care to be overwhelmed" variety. You can just imagine how a condition like that could be weaponised by the lockdown ultras. "If you don't support restrictions forever then babies will die and it will be your fault" would be just the sort of line they would relish taking.
The longer the restrictions persist for, the more they and the problems they cause risk turning into a vicious circle.
Trump vs Biden both in a permanent vegetative state.
#EURO2020 latest: Scotland favourites to win group D after Nicola Sturgeon demands fixtures are replayed until they get a result she’s happy with.
https://twitter.com/haveigotnews/status/1404454854500683790?s=21
https://interaktiv.tagesspiegel.de/lab/karte-sars-cov-2-in-deutschland-landkreise/
At a low level but growing quickly.
Germany is a few weeks behind Britain but also a few weeks behind on vaccinations as well.
As an aside I've worked with him and he's incredibly nice despite being against almost everything I believe in.
https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-content/uploads/2021/05/National-Monthly-Omnibus-MAY-Release-1.pdf (p12)
If Harris is the Democratic nominee he might win the general election too
£14 at 80ish/1 next Con leader
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.183248117
(I live a few miles up the 5)
As with most PM's with a big majority Boris is getting too big for his boots!
Boris should reflect that he was only give his 80 seat majority to "Get Brexit Done" and it can be taken away from him as easily as it was given to him..,.
https://twitter.com/stephenkb/status/1404437399275511810?s=20
Sid in the warehouse I think is asking the same question as lorry loads more of the stuff arrives every other day...
And of course the risk assessment was taken before the Indian variant.
There's ~3.44% of population who aren't bothering to get second vaxxed perhaps...
If similar is happening in the UK then the gap between people actively seeking the second dose and first dose drops considerably.
Karen in the hair salon is probably wondering why she should bother with her second jab after today's disappointment.
https://www.ukri.org/our-work/tackling-the-impact-of-covid-19/vaccines-and-treatments/imperial-covid-19-vaccine-trial-expands-to-additional-sites/
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/14/englands-covid-lockdown-lifting-is-a-four-week-delay-enough
Better lockdown until 2045 just in case...
i) No need to boosterise under 40s
ii) Faster rollout
iii) Greater neutralising efficacy for potential viral hotbeds such as nightclubs. The returns of delaying past 4 weeks start to err.. diminish as Vallance said.
"@EuropeElects
Germany, INSA poll:
CDU/CSU-EPP: 27.5% (+1)
GRÜNE-G/EFA: 19.5% (-1)
SPD-S&D: 16.5% (+1)
FDP-RE: 13.5%
AfD-ID: 11%
LINKE-LEFT: 6% (-1)
+/- vs. 4-7 June 2021
Fieldwork: 11-14 June 2021
Sample size: 2,038"
https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1404496016632602633
Now it’s a tool in the Govt armoury, and a tool that can be deployed with public support no less, they clearly have no intention of giving it away. Even if Covid is utterly defeated. All they need is to roll out the models and crank up the rhetoric and... bingo! It’ll work for every winter NHS crisis for ever more. And basically makes any sort of business potentially affected by such decisions impossible when three months trade can be effectively taken away via ministerial diktat.
Wycombe is trending away from the Tories as fast as almost anywhere ISTR.
Can't see it myself.
Of course neither 1), nor the possibility of a further waves in winter are ruled out...
Sienna Rodgers"
https://labourlist.org/2021/06/labour-set-to-blame-covid-unlocking-delay-on-johnsons-border-negligence/
Also people who just had a bad reaction first time and don’t want to do it again.
“Irreversible”. This summer.
Nevertheless. Those are still stonking figures for the Greens. And very impressive FDP.
And poor for AfD and Linke.
Seems discontent with the governing Parties has drifted to the sensible alternatives.
AZ problems seem to be exclusively first dose, and, if you've had a bad reaction, maybe an indication of how bad a bout of Covid might be?
Nowt as queer as folk, I suppose.
Why on Earth would they do such a thing?
Because fundamentally this can't go on indefinitely... Boris was elected to "Get Brexit Done" not to keep us all under house arrest for years on end while he goes swanning around Cornwall and Belgium living it up with global leaders (none of whom bother with social distancing, face masks etc etc themselves seemingly...)
Good night."
Never mind the bollocks.
I think it's playing very badly even with lockdown supporters. I'll be amazed of the Conservative poll rating doesn't crater in the weekend polls...
We shall see. Goodnight.
"Portland was once a byword for tattooed vegan microbrewers
Now Oregon’s biggest city has become infamous for something else"
https://www.economist.com/united-states/2021/06/12/portland-was-once-a-byword-for-tattooed-vegan-microbrewers