On the "who's getting hospitalised/who will get hospitalised?" front, we don't need to guess. The NHS have published the age data up until the 6th of June.
I've had a bit of a play. Looking at the relationship between number of hospitalisations and number of cases 10 days earlier (very crude), it does look as though ages 0-5 and 6-17 are getting hospitalised in nearly twice the ratio they were before. 18-54 are up 25%-30%; 55-64 down to under half, and then down to a third and then a quarter as you get older. I'm assuming a chunk of the older ones are vax refusers and another chunk are breakthroughs.
The unhelpfully wide 18-54 is a max of pre-vaxxed and one-dose-vaxxed, with a handful of double-vaxxed, so it does look as though around double the ratio is about right for Delta.
However - that massive drop in the oldies in comparison to the young is why the numbers are so far down. If the proportion of cases had remained the same across all age ranges, we'd have passed 300 hospitalisations per day around the 5th of June (in England alone) and be past 3,000 in hospital (in comparison, we only passed 100 hospitalisations per day consistently on the 6th of June and had 807 in hospital).
(And this is over and above vax effects slowing spread and infections).
So the link between cases and hospitalisations isn't broken, but the ratio is significantly reduced (even in the face of Delta doubling it in raw terms) and that ratio will continue to go down week on week as more doses go into more arms.
However - should the cases continue to rise at the same rate and the ratio between cases and hospitalisations remain unchanged (which they won't, so this is a line that we should be peeling away from), we would be passing 350 admissions per day (largely in the young) by 21st of June and over 2000 in hospital by that point.
Should the proportion of 18-54 drop towards the 55-64s and the 55-64s join the older groups at their level, then that 350-odd will be c. 220-odd, and the number in hospital would drop to the 1200-1300 range by then.
I would also expect the increase in cases to be slowing down with the increased vaccination as well, but to extrapolate that would be to add crude estimate on top of crude estimate.
+1 on that.
If this analysis is correct, and I am not saying that is isn't, then pray tell why are other European countries opening up with far lower levels of vaccination than Britain? (as May pointed out today)
Why have some US states opened up completely for weeks with lower levels of vaccination?
For the above to happen without the health systems of these countries being swamped (which they are manifestly not), the assumptions you are making simply cannot be true.
It is just not possible. There must be other factors.
They are taking a risk based on current, falling numbers. The gamble is that by the time the next variant (probably Delta) hits them, they will be much more vaxed.
The Barbican started life as council flats, did it not? Town planning by the Luftwaffe.
Yes, I think it was. You won the lottery if you got a flat there and then Thatch gave you Right To Buy
I've been in a couple of Barbican flats, they are very nice inside. Well made. The brutalist exterior is not for everyone but I like the jagged silhouettes. Ceilings could be a tiny bit higher, but other than that rather pleasant. And wonderful views, especially at night. And of course you are surrounded by the gardens and history of the Barbican, which is still a bit of a hidden gem, despite the arts complex. It has a fabulous arboretum which few people know, see here
High rise if done well is fine for most people without kids, and that is quite a lot of people. Older people love the Barbican, for example
Barbican flats are very popular with very wealthy retired people, and with company CEOs and city financiers whose families are out in the sticks (or indeed around the world), giving them a safe flat a stone’s throw from the City and with a purpose built concert/cinema/theatre complex plus restaurants and bars with lots of up market clientele, right there.
Yes, it's a grand place to live
I nearly bought one, yonks ago. Kinda regret it now
Firstly, it is not really true that Green Belts have been expanded. They were a policy tool originating in the 1950s to limit the expansion of towns and cities as there was a worry about unplanned sprawl. Somehow, some places ended up with Green Belts, others didn't: it is somewhat random. As far as I know, most of them were designated in in the 1950's and 60's. Green Belts have subsequently become linked to ideals about towns and country and have taken on a mythology of their own. They certainly have a visual function in terms of seperating urban areas thus preserving their identity. However, because of the proximity to infrastructure and services, it is some of the best land to develop for housing in a productive and socially useful way. It is true that many of the problems to do with housing, particularly around the south east; and London in particular; could be addressed by way of developing this land; but this would undoubtedly result in a significant change to the urban and rural landscape, which needs to be considered carefully.
With regard to housing more generally, the idea that you should deregulate and let people build anything anywhere is one that can only be entertained if you are happy to have almost no countryside at all, because that is what would occur within a single generation: there would be large scale unplanned suburban sprawl of the type that the planning system was introduced in 1948 to stop from happening. This is along with many other potential adverse consequences, too many to list. The problem is that the demand for housing is endless, and the extent of developable land in this country is very limited. It is not at all like places like the USA or Scandinavia where there is a lot of land. Fortunately this won't happen, because people in England are fond of the Countryside. This is a seperate issue to Nimbyism, they shouldn't be confused.
(TBC)
Part of the problem is that people don't want to make obvious linkages. The Green Belt wasn't an issue (much) until the government decided that they wanted a bigger population.
Which leaves these options
- Stop the population growing - Everyone moves to flats which must get smaller, year by year - Fuck (some of) the Green Belt
The mystical brown fields sites will not solve the problem. Not at the current rates of population expansion.
The population isn't growing, UK births per mother is only 1.7 ie below the 2.1 required replacement rate.
It is increased immigration, divorces etc which has let to more demand. Tighten immigration controls further, encourage the traditional family and it would be less of an issue.
No reason why we cannot build more high rise flats in London and skyscrapers as befits a global city to reduce the pressure for increased housing in the greenbelt
Have you ever lived in a high rise? I have. It is awful. It is the equivalent of living like a fucking battery hen.
Depends, if you live in a high rise in central London with a view of the park and easy access to shops, cafes, nightlife etc as a young person it would be ideal.
Yep. People’s housing prefs change over time.
Where I think planning continues to err is in putting up high rises outside metro centres, often next to “transport hubs”.
The towers next to Woking Stn are hideous and don’t provide easy access to any sort of metropolitan life.
Completely agreed. Up here you get flats built (not especially high rise) as "affordable housing" within new housing estates far too often.
No reason for it whatsoever - and it makes absolutely no sense. Just use a bit more land and build more mews or semi detached housing.
There are effectively two or three different housing markets, and enlightened planning philosophy addresses each differently.
Greater London. Other metros. “Country”.
Although it is much better than it used to be, a lot of issues in this country just seem to be caused by shite development, in turn in response to various perversities in the system.
Agreed. Far too much of our regulations or principles are thought of by people who live in or commute to London and think that what works there applies to the rest of the nation.
In towns across the nation you can plot welfare, crime, economic development etc, etc, etc almost perfectly to housing density. The more dense the housing, the more the welfare dependancy, the more crime etc
In my ideal world in towns all new houses would be at least semi-detached with 2 off road parking spaces each.
Was with you until para 2. Density itself doesn’t increase crime etc. Again, Sth Ken and Notting Hill are not slums.
Where I think we might agree is that high rise is harder to make work for social housing; however even here there have been some v attractive developments in London over the last decade or so.
In fact, much of the best architecture where I live (Hackney, Islington) is via council-led densification of existing housing estates.
The demolition and rebuild of the Packington Estate, close to Angel tube, is an exemplar.
South Kensington and Notting Hill don't have the density of eg Tower Hamlets, but are themselves the exception that proves the rule.
Plus I specifically said towns. They're part of a city not a town aren't they?
Can you think of any town anywhere in the country where the low-crime, low-deprivation areas are the high density areas and the high crime, high deprivation areas are the low density ones?
What’s your point? You’re floundering, mate.
We don’t need to scrap the green belt, and maintaining it does not entail building inappropriate high-rises in “towns”.
My point is that everyone who wants to should be able to buy a nice house with a garden. Preferably I would suggest semidetached at least, but I know some people are keen on terraces or mews.
If you have an alternative solution instead of greenfield to make that possible then I'd love to hear it. So far I've never heard anyone suggest an alternative apart from brownfield which is patently absurd.
So what's your alternative?
I outlined it very briefly upthread.
In essence, yes we need to build more; the planning system must be simplified and govt needs to find social housing.
But all of this can be done I think without scrapping the green belt(s).
As I write in the middle of the city with the most pressing problem I can see with my own eyes the incredibly low density and also many brownfield opportunities.
I am not familiar with Warrington so don’t know what the answer is, but I figure part of it is ensuring Liverpool and Manchester are maxing density appropriately.
Warrington is fairly close to my ideal to be honest. Urban sprawl has pretty much connected the town with Manchester and Liverpool and more and more green land is being built on to provide decent housing. Though every new estate seems to include a block of flats for no good reason as part of "affordable housing" rules that should be abolished. Especially the outskirs of Warrington are developed as I like to see: Most of Sankey, Padgate, Winwick, Old Hall, Penketh, Woolston, Grappenhall, Walton etc
The worst areas of Warrington are the high density areas like 'awful Orford'.
As for Liverpool, its far too high density already.
.@UKSteel__ says removing import tariffs will be "hammer blow". "To remove huge elements of the protection steel manufacturers require against import surges is utter madness. On their first major test in a post-Brexit trading environment, the UK’s new system has failed." https://twitter.com/pkelso/status/1403326961477427206
Yes, God forbid British car makers should be able to buy cheap steel. They should be forced to pay more so foreigners can undercut them.
Back on topic, it looks as though the leaders of the Conservative Party are very busy with a lot of infighting. Remembering the fact that the public do not like divided parties, are there any implications here for the Chesham and Amersham byelection?
It is 40-50 year olds Labour needs to win voters from the Tories to get into government, 18-24s can do a protest vote to the Greens but they are overrepresented in safe Labour urban and university seats anyway
The Barbican started life as council flats, did it not? Town planning by the Luftwaffe.
Yes, I think it was. You won the lottery if you got a flat there and then Thatch gave you Right To Buy
I've been in a couple of Barbican flats, they are very nice inside. Well made. The brutalist exterior is not for everyone but I like the jagged silhouettes. Ceilings could be a tiny bit higher, but other than that rather pleasant. And wonderful views, especially at night. And of course you are surrounded by the gardens and history of the Barbican, which is still a bit of a hidden gem, despite the arts complex. It has a fabulous arboretum which few people know, see here
High rise if done well is fine for most people without kids, and that is quite a lot of people. Older people love the Barbican, for example
Barbican flats are very popular with very wealthy retired people, and with company CEOs and city financiers whose families are out in the sticks (or indeed around the world), giving them a safe flat a stone’s throw from the City and with a purpose built concert/cinema/theatre complex plus restaurants and bars with lots of up market clientele, right there.
Yes, it's a grand place to live
I nearly bought one, yonks ago. Kinda regret it now
One of my first jobs was planning the postal delivery routes for the City of London, and the Barbican ones were always the most popular among the staff. When it was raining you were mostly inside, and the Christmas tips amounted to weeks’ of extra wages. However hard we tried to prove that it could be done quickly by fewer people, the unions always worked hard to defend the status quo and you’d commonly see the Barbican posties finishing early and heading off as a team for their mid morning fry up. Those were the plummest jobs in the office and you needed many years of service to have a chance of being able to pick one up.
People who support more “liberal” or left-leaning sides of debates on culture war issues such as Black Lives Matter and transgender rights, and on party politics and Brexit, are more likely to say they struggle to be friends with those who take the opposing point of view, according to a new study.
Conversely, people who support more “traditional” or right-leaning sides of these debates tend to be more incorrect on some key social realities, such as earning gaps between ethnic minority and white workers and how likely transgender people are to be victims of crime.
35% of Labour supporters say it would be hard to be friends with people who vote Conservative – five times the proportion of Conservative supporters (7%) who say the same about those who vote Labour.
Labour supporters are more likely to describe Conservatives as selfish (74% vs 30%), closed-minded (75% vs 59%) and hypocritical (67% vs 52%) than the reverse, and half as likely to see them as honest (25% vs 50%) than the other way around.
On the "who's getting hospitalised/who will get hospitalised?" front, we don't need to guess. The NHS have published the age data up until the 6th of June.
I've had a bit of a play. Looking at the relationship between number of hospitalisations and number of cases 10 days earlier (very crude), it does look as though ages 0-5 and 6-17 are getting hospitalised in nearly twice the ratio they were before. 18-54 are up 25%-30%; 55-64 down to under half, and then down to a third and then a quarter as you get older. I'm assuming a chunk of the older ones are vax refusers and another chunk are breakthroughs.
The unhelpfully wide 18-54 is a max of pre-vaxxed and one-dose-vaxxed, with a handful of double-vaxxed, so it does look as though around double the ratio is about right for Delta.
However - that massive drop in the oldies in comparison to the young is why the numbers are so far down. If the proportion of cases had remained the same across all age ranges, we'd have passed 300 hospitalisations per day around the 5th of June (in England alone) and be past 3,000 in hospital (in comparison, we only passed 100 hospitalisations per day consistently on the 6th of June and had 807 in hospital).
(And this is over and above vax effects slowing spread and infections).
So the link between cases and hospitalisations isn't broken, but the ratio is significantly reduced (even in the face of Delta doubling it in raw terms) and that ratio will continue to go down week on week as more doses go into more arms.
However - should the cases continue to rise at the same rate and the ratio between cases and hospitalisations remain unchanged (which they won't, so this is a line that we should be peeling away from), we would be passing 350 admissions per day (largely in the young) by 21st of June and over 2000 in hospital by that point.
Should the proportion of 18-54 drop towards the 55-64s and the 55-64s join the older groups at their level, then that 350-odd will be c. 220-odd, and the number in hospital would drop to the 1200-1300 range by then.
I would also expect the increase in cases to be slowing down with the increased vaccination as well, but to extrapolate that would be to add crude estimate on top of crude estimate.
+1 on that.
If this analysis is correct, and I am not saying that is isn't, then pray tell why are other European countries opening up with far lower levels of vaccination than Britain? (as May pointed out today)
Why have some US states opened up completely for weeks with lower levels of vaccination?
For the above to happen without the health systems of these countries being swamped (which they are manifestly not), the assumptions you are making simply cannot be true.
It is just not possible. There must be other factors.
Delta is different, and the ratio of Delta to other variants is important.
First off: halve all numbers if Delta levels are negligible. Sorted. Second off: reduce spread significantly (in the UK, that would put spread into reverse) if Delta is not a significant chunk. So there would be, right now, maybe a half to a quarter of cases, multiplied by a ratio half of what it currently is. Hospitalisations would be maybe 40 per day (and dropping) and numbers in hospital maybe 300 (and dropping).
In England, Delta has grown to be the dominant strain almost everywhere (from a small percentage a few weeks back). As with Alpha, it grows under the waterline at first.
Here's an example. Say that you had 1000 cases per day and 6% were Delta and the rest were Alpha. And, say that you'd pushed Alpha down to an R of about 0.9 by a combination of vaccination and residual minor restrictions (in whichever ratio). But Delta is 50% more infectious than Alpha.
This is what the cases would look like iteration by iteration:
Each iteration is somewhere between 5 days and a week. The US is around the level of iteration 1. We're around iteration 12.
However - as vaccination levels increase, then the R value of even Delta comes down. The US is gambling that by the time they get to around iteration 10-12, their vax levels will be considerably higher.
We're hoping that as we dose 14 million more every four weeks, we won't see the latter stages of that rise.
The Barbican started life as council flats, did it not? Town planning by the Luftwaffe.
Yes, I think it was. You won the lottery if you got a flat there and then Thatch gave you Right To Buy
I've been in a couple of Barbican flats, they are very nice inside. Well made. The brutalist exterior is not for everyone but I like the jagged silhouettes. Ceilings could be a tiny bit higher, but other than that rather pleasant. And wonderful views, especially at night. And of course you are surrounded by the gardens and history of the Barbican, which is still a bit of a hidden gem, despite the arts complex. It has a fabulous arboretum which few people know, see here
High rise if done well is fine for most people without kids, and that is quite a lot of people. Older people love the Barbican, for example
Barbican flats are very popular with very wealthy retired people, and with company CEOs and city financiers whose families are out in the sticks (or indeed around the world), giving them a safe flat a stone’s throw from the City and with a purpose built concert/cinema/theatre complex plus restaurants and bars with lots of up market clientele, right there.
Yes, it's a grand place to live
The best thing about living in the Barbican is you don't have the Barbican destroying your view.
It's a horrific place to look at. Four stunningly ugly browney-grey concrete eyesores blighting so many views of St Paul's.
BREXIT When asked to score their feelings towards the other side out of 100 – with 100 the “warmest” feeling, and 0 the “coldest” – Remainers rate their feelings towards Leavers at 29 out of 100, while Leavers give Remain voters a much “warmer” rating of 42 out of 100.
29% of Remain supporters say it’s hard to be friends with people who voted Leave in the EU referendum – around four times the 7% of Leavers who say the same about Remain voters.
Johnson's government is reeling. It is all over the place.
May, acutely aware of the main chance as ever, senses it.
It won't be long before others do.
Could TMay return as PM? I notice she has been active in Chesham & Amersham
I wondered the same thing this morning.......!
She might well try. I am not sure May would succeed though. 2017 too bad a memory for many tories?
Could one bet on her trying and not succeeding ?
Just checked Oddscheker & she's not even a runner in their next PM market, while Ian Blackford, Piers Morgan & Cameron are!
What price would you back her at? & same question to you @MikeSmithson
Oh, an absolute outsider price no doubt, it just seems a bit weird that she’s not listed. Looking again the most popular bet aside from ‘other’ is Jeremy Corbyn.
I guess that’s because the market has been up since Boris took over as PM, so Jez was massive fav to be next PM for 5-6 months.
BREXIT When asked to score their feelings towards the other side out of 100 – with 100 the “warmest” feeling, and 0 the “coldest” – Remainers rate their feelings towards Leavers at 29 out of 100, while Leavers give Remain voters a much “warmer” rating of 42 out of 100.
29% of Remain supporters say it’s hard to be friends with people who voted Leave in the EU referendum – around four times the 7% of Leavers who say the same about Remain voters.
You mean remainers aren't very tolerant of people with different viewpoints? Colour me shocked. But at least they change their pants regularly
The Barbican started life as council flats, did it not? Town planning by the Luftwaffe.
Yes, I think it was. You won the lottery if you got a flat there and then Thatch gave you Right To Buy
I've been in a couple of Barbican flats, they are very nice inside. Well made. The brutalist exterior is not for everyone but I like the jagged silhouettes. Ceilings could be a tiny bit higher, but other than that rather pleasant. And wonderful views, especially at night. And of course you are surrounded by the gardens and history of the Barbican, which is still a bit of a hidden gem, despite the arts complex. It has a fabulous arboretum which few people know, see here
High rise if done well is fine for most people without kids, and that is quite a lot of people. Older people love the Barbican, for example
Barbican flats are very popular with very wealthy retired people, and with company CEOs and city financiers whose families are out in the sticks (or indeed around the world), giving them a safe flat a stone’s throw from the City and with a purpose built concert/cinema/theatre complex plus restaurants and bars with lots of up market clientele, right there.
Yes, it's a grand place to live
Horrific place to look at though. Four stunningly ugly browney-grey concrete eyesores.
I can remember it being built (or finished) in the early 80s, and someone I worked with had an aerial photo of the bomb site it had been for thirty years prior. The bomb site wasn't attractive either.
People who support more “liberal” or left-leaning sides of debates on culture war issues such as Black Lives Matter and transgender rights, and on party politics and Brexit, are more likely to say they struggle to be friends with those who take the opposing point of view, according to a new study.
Conversely, people who support more “traditional” or right-leaning sides of these debates tend to be more incorrect on some key social realities, such as earning gaps between ethnic minority and white workers and how likely transgender people are to be victims of crime.
35% of Labour supporters say it would be hard to be friends with people who vote Conservative – five times the proportion of Conservative supporters (7%) who say the same about those who vote Labour.
Labour supporters are more likely to describe Conservatives as selfish (74% vs 30%), closed-minded (75% vs 59%) and hypocritical (67% vs 52%) than the reverse, and half as likely to see them as honest (25% vs 50%) than the other way around.
That fits v well with my ‘lived experience’. You can see it too on here, those who don’t post anymore are generally lefties/Remainers who cannot accept the post Referendum political world
The Barbican started life as council flats, did it not? Town planning by the Luftwaffe.
Yes, I think it was. You won the lottery if you got a flat there and then Thatch gave you Right To Buy
I've been in a couple of Barbican flats, they are very nice inside. Well made. The brutalist exterior is not for everyone but I like the jagged silhouettes. Ceilings could be a tiny bit higher, but other than that rather pleasant. And wonderful views, especially at night. And of course you are surrounded by the gardens and history of the Barbican, which is still a bit of a hidden gem, despite the arts complex. It has a fabulous arboretum which few people know, see here
High rise if done well is fine for most people without kids, and that is quite a lot of people. Older people love the Barbican, for example
Barbican flats are very popular with very wealthy retired people, and with company CEOs and city financiers whose families are out in the sticks (or indeed around the world), giving them a safe flat a stone’s throw from the City and with a purpose built concert/cinema/theatre complex plus restaurants and bars with lots of up market clientele, right there.
Yes, it's a grand place to live
Horrific place to look at though. Four stunningly ugly browney-grey concrete eyesores.
The Barbican started life as council flats, did it not? Town planning by the Luftwaffe.
Yes, I think it was. You won the lottery if you got a flat there and then Thatch gave you Right To Buy
I've been in a couple of Barbican flats, they are very nice inside. Well made. The brutalist exterior is not for everyone but I like the jagged silhouettes. Ceilings could be a tiny bit higher, but other than that rather pleasant. And wonderful views, especially at night. And of course you are surrounded by the gardens and history of the Barbican, which is still a bit of a hidden gem, despite the arts complex. It has a fabulous arboretum which few people know, see here
High rise if done well is fine for most people without kids, and that is quite a lot of people. Older people love the Barbican, for example
Barbican flats are very popular with very wealthy retired people, and with company CEOs and city financiers whose families are out in the sticks (or indeed around the world), giving them a safe flat a stone’s throw from the City and with a purpose built concert/cinema/theatre complex plus restaurants and bars with lots of up market clientele, right there.
Yes, it's a grand place to live
Horrific place to look at though. Four stunningly ugly browney-grey concrete eyesores.
Grins for some reason the girlfriend decided to paint the outside of our house and a neighbour complained he didnt like it and it was an eyesore ( it was truth be told ) my response to him when he banged on the door was "yes but I live inside looking out so I don't have to look at it"
The Barbican started life as council flats, did it not? Town planning by the Luftwaffe.
Yes, I think it was. You won the lottery if you got a flat there and then Thatch gave you Right To Buy
I've been in a couple of Barbican flats, they are very nice inside. Well made. The brutalist exterior is not for everyone but I like the jagged silhouettes. Ceilings could be a tiny bit higher, but other than that rather pleasant. And wonderful views, especially at night. And of course you are surrounded by the gardens and history of the Barbican, which is still a bit of a hidden gem, despite the arts complex. It has a fabulous arboretum which few people know, see here
High rise if done well is fine for most people without kids, and that is quite a lot of people. Older people love the Barbican, for example
Barbican flats are very popular with very wealthy retired people, and with company CEOs and city financiers whose families are out in the sticks (or indeed around the world), giving them a safe flat a stone’s throw from the City and with a purpose built concert/cinema/theatre complex plus restaurants and bars with lots of up market clientele, right there.
Yes, it's a grand place to live
I nearly bought one, yonks ago. Kinda regret it now
The building I always wanted to live in was The Isokon in Belsize Park. I nearly rented a flat there in 2005 but dithered and didn’t. I think they were on the market for sale at about 150k then. Beautiful place, location, and history of the building
People who support more “liberal” or left-leaning sides of debates on culture war issues such as Black Lives Matter and transgender rights, and on party politics and Brexit, are more likely to say they struggle to be friends with those who take the opposing point of view, according to a new study.
Conversely, people who support more “traditional” or right-leaning sides of these debates tend to be more incorrect on some key social realities, such as earning gaps between ethnic minority and white workers and how likely transgender people are to be victims of crime.
35% of Labour supporters say it would be hard to be friends with people who vote Conservative – five times the proportion of Conservative supporters (7%) who say the same about those who vote Labour.
Labour supporters are more likely to describe Conservatives as selfish (74% vs 30%), closed-minded (75% vs 59%) and hypocritical (67% vs 52%) than the reverse, and half as likely to see them as honest (25% vs 50%) than the other way around.
That fits v well with my ‘lived experience’. You can see it too on here, those who don’t post anymore are generally lefties/Remainers who cannot accept the post Referendum political world
LOL. Top Satire! Even Vichy Regime was popular for two years.
The Barbican started life as council flats, did it not? Town planning by the Luftwaffe.
Yes, I think it was. You won the lottery if you got a flat there and then Thatch gave you Right To Buy
I've been in a couple of Barbican flats, they are very nice inside. Well made. The brutalist exterior is not for everyone but I like the jagged silhouettes. Ceilings could be a tiny bit higher, but other than that rather pleasant. And wonderful views, especially at night. And of course you are surrounded by the gardens and history of the Barbican, which is still a bit of a hidden gem, despite the arts complex. It has a fabulous arboretum which few people know, see here
High rise if done well is fine for most people without kids, and that is quite a lot of people. Older people love the Barbican, for example
Barbican flats are very popular with very wealthy retired people, and with company CEOs and city financiers whose families are out in the sticks (or indeed around the world), giving them a safe flat a stone’s throw from the City and with a purpose built concert/cinema/theatre complex plus restaurants and bars with lots of up market clientele, right there.
Yes, it's a grand place to live
Horrific place to look at though. Four stunningly ugly browney-grey concrete eyesores.
I can remember it being built (or finished) in the early 80s, and someone I worked with had an aerial photo of the bomb site it had been for thirty years prior. The bomb site wasn't attractive either.
That's a great slogan for brutalist architecture - "Slightly better looking than a bomb site and fewer dead"
People who support more “liberal” or left-leaning sides of debates on culture war issues such as Black Lives Matter and transgender rights, and on party politics and Brexit, are more likely to say they struggle to be friends with those who take the opposing point of view, according to a new study.
Conversely, people who support more “traditional” or right-leaning sides of these debates tend to be more incorrect on some key social realities, such as earning gaps between ethnic minority and white workers and how likely transgender people are to be victims of crime.
35% of Labour supporters say it would be hard to be friends with people who vote Conservative – five times the proportion of Conservative supporters (7%) who say the same about those who vote Labour.
Labour supporters are more likely to describe Conservatives as selfish (74% vs 30%), closed-minded (75% vs 59%) and hypocritical (67% vs 52%) than the reverse, and half as likely to see them as honest (25% vs 50%) than the other way around.
That fits v well with my ‘lived experience’. You can see it too on here, those who don’t post anymore are generally lefties/Remainers who cannot accept the post Referendum political world
You can also see it on here, those who lash out vitriolically at others and are generally angry are those Remainers who can't accept what has happened.
There's a lot of bitterness about. A shame really.
BREXIT When asked to score their feelings towards the other side out of 100 – with 100 the “warmest” feeling, and 0 the “coldest” – Remainers rate their feelings towards Leavers at 29 out of 100, while Leavers give Remain voters a much “warmer” rating of 42 out of 100.
29% of Remain supporters say it’s hard to be friends with people who voted Leave in the EU referendum – around four times the 7% of Leavers who say the same about Remain voters.
It's hard to know whether this is Remainers being intolerant or Leavers being objectively worse people, though. What we need is an independent rating of the two groups, eg from someone who didn't care either way and didn't vote. Also, it is unarguable that Leavers' actions have had a bigger negative effect on Remainers than vice versa, simply because they won and got to impose their views on Remainers. Why would Leavers hate Remainers? Getting called nasty names on Twitter doesn't really compare in magnitude to having your rights to live and work anywhere in Europe taken away from you, unless you are an extreme Snowflake.
I feel happy seeing that, as I predicted the Greens would eat up the young Corbynite vote as soon as Starmer took over
We will revisit your happiness after the 23/24 election.
It will be interesting to see with the death of the Brexit Party whether the Tories can achieve a 7th consecutive increase in vote share at the next election - and a 4th consecutive one in office.
The French President making that co-ordination meeting very public. For EU leaders the message on NI protocols (from EU & US) put ‘loud & clear’ this week (according to 2 EU sources) but these leaders will undoubtedly raise too
BREXIT When asked to score their feelings towards the other side out of 100 – with 100 the “warmest” feeling, and 0 the “coldest” – Remainers rate their feelings towards Leavers at 29 out of 100, while Leavers give Remain voters a much “warmer” rating of 42 out of 100.
29% of Remain supporters say it’s hard to be friends with people who voted Leave in the EU referendum – around four times the 7% of Leavers who say the same about Remain voters.
It's hard to know whether this is Remainers being intolerant or Leavers being objectively worse people, though. What we need is an independent rating of the two groups, eg from someone who didn't care either way and didn't vote. Also, it is unarguable that Leavers' actions have had a bigger negative effect on Remainers than vice versa, simply because they won and got to impose their views on Remainers. Why would Leavers hate Remainers? Getting called nasty names on Twitter doesn't really compare in magnitude to having your rights to live and work anywhere in Europe taken away from you, unless you are an extreme Snowflake.
Well you also then have to admit that for 40 odd years the euphiles got to impose their views on the eusceptics. Why I remember someone on this board laughing about Brown signing lisbon without the promised referendum
The takeaway is surely this: get the AZ jabs out of the frigging warehouse and into young people TODAY. I am stupefied this is not happening
With some very dubious and crude estimates used, I make it just under 5 weeks jabbing at current rates to get R from 1.5 down to 1.0, and between 8 and 9 weeks to get a residual R of 2.5 down to 1.0.
The estimated COVID-19 reproduction "R" number in England has risen to between 1.2 and 1.4 with the daily growth rate of infections also up compared to last week, Britain's health ministry said on Friday.
The Barbican started life as council flats, did it not? Town planning by the Luftwaffe.
Yes, I think it was. You won the lottery if you got a flat there and then Thatch gave you Right To Buy
I've been in a couple of Barbican flats, they are very nice inside. Well made. The brutalist exterior is not for everyone but I like the jagged silhouettes. Ceilings could be a tiny bit higher, but other than that rather pleasant. And wonderful views, especially at night. And of course you are surrounded by the gardens and history of the Barbican, which is still a bit of a hidden gem, despite the arts complex. It has a fabulous arboretum which few people know, see here
High rise if done well is fine for most people without kids, and that is quite a lot of people. Older people love the Barbican, for example
Barbican flats are very popular with very wealthy retired people, and with company CEOs and city financiers whose families are out in the sticks (or indeed around the world), giving them a safe flat a stone’s throw from the City and with a purpose built concert/cinema/theatre complex plus restaurants and bars with lots of up market clientele, right there.
Yes, it's a grand place to live
I nearly bought one, yonks ago. Kinda regret it now
One of my first jobs was planning the postal delivery routes for the City of London, and the Barbican ones were always the most popular among the staff. When it was raining you were mostly inside, and the Christmas tips amounted to weeks’ of extra wages. However hard we tried to prove that it could be done quickly by fewer people, the unions always worked hard to defend the status quo and you’d commonly see the Barbican posties finishing early and heading off as a team for their mid morning fry up. Those were the plummest jobs in the office and you needed many years of service to have a chance of being able to pick one up.
Sort of job that gets passed from father to son. Like the bins.
BREXIT When asked to score their feelings towards the other side out of 100 – with 100 the “warmest” feeling, and 0 the “coldest” – Remainers rate their feelings towards Leavers at 29 out of 100, while Leavers give Remain voters a much “warmer” rating of 42 out of 100.
29% of Remain supporters say it’s hard to be friends with people who voted Leave in the EU referendum – around four times the 7% of Leavers who say the same about Remain voters.
It's hard to know whether this is Remainers being intolerant or Leavers being objectively worse people, though. What we need is an independent rating of the two groups, eg from someone who didn't care either way and didn't vote. Also, it is unarguable that Leavers' actions have had a bigger negative effect on Remainers than vice versa, simply because they won and got to impose their views on Remainers. Why would Leavers hate Remainers? Getting called nasty names on Twitter doesn't really compare in magnitude to having your rights to live and work anywhere in Europe taken away from you, unless you are an extreme Snowflake.
I think it's also partly expectations. Most remainers expected to win in 2016, while most leavers didn't. Inevitably, then, remainers are much more disappointed and often bitter at having lost than I suspect leavers would have been.
The Barbican started life as council flats, did it not? Town planning by the Luftwaffe.
Yes, I think it was. You won the lottery if you got a flat there and then Thatch gave you Right To Buy
I've been in a couple of Barbican flats, they are very nice inside. Well made. The brutalist exterior is not for everyone but I like the jagged silhouettes. Ceilings could be a tiny bit higher, but other than that rather pleasant. And wonderful views, especially at night. And of course you are surrounded by the gardens and history of the Barbican, which is still a bit of a hidden gem, despite the arts complex. It has a fabulous arboretum which few people know, see here
High rise if done well is fine for most people without kids, and that is quite a lot of people. Older people love the Barbican, for example
At least the Germans built their flak towers during the war - not after.
I feel happy seeing that, as I predicted the Greens would eat up the young Corbynite vote as soon as Starmer took over
We will revisit your happiness after the 23/24 election.
It will be interesting to see with the death of the Brexit Party whether the Tories can achieve a 7th consecutive increase in vote share at the next election - and a 4th consecutive one in office.
Absolutely. Wether they can continue to defy political gravity. Which the weight of history says you can’t do, without stealing your opponents clothes.
BREXIT When asked to score their feelings towards the other side out of 100 – with 100 the “warmest” feeling, and 0 the “coldest” – Remainers rate their feelings towards Leavers at 29 out of 100, while Leavers give Remain voters a much “warmer” rating of 42 out of 100.
29% of Remain supporters say it’s hard to be friends with people who voted Leave in the EU referendum – around four times the 7% of Leavers who say the same about Remain voters.
It's hard to know whether this is Remainers being intolerant or Leavers being objectively worse people, though. What we need is an independent rating of the two groups, eg from someone who didn't care either way and didn't vote. Also, it is unarguable that Leavers' actions have had a bigger negative effect on Remainers than vice versa, simply because they won and got to impose their views on Remainers. Why would Leavers hate Remainers? Getting called nasty names on Twitter doesn't really compare in magnitude to having your rights to live and work anywhere in Europe taken away from you, unless you are an extreme Snowflake.
Well you also then have to admit that for 40 odd years the euphiles got to impose their views on the eusceptics. Why I remember someone on this board laughing about Brown signing lisbon without the promised referendum
For sure, but this poll is current. Right now, I think it is undeniable that if either side has a legitimate grievance against the other it is Remainers, simply because they lost.
People who support more “liberal” or left-leaning sides of debates on culture war issues such as Black Lives Matter and transgender rights, and on party politics and Brexit, are more likely to say they struggle to be friends with those who take the opposing point of view, according to a new study.
Conversely, people who support more “traditional” or right-leaning sides of these debates tend to be more incorrect on some key social realities, such as earning gaps between ethnic minority and white workers and how likely transgender people are to be victims of crime.
35% of Labour supporters say it would be hard to be friends with people who vote Conservative – five times the proportion of Conservative supporters (7%) who say the same about those who vote Labour.
Labour supporters are more likely to describe Conservatives as selfish (74% vs 30%), closed-minded (75% vs 59%) and hypocritical (67% vs 52%) than the reverse, and half as likely to see them as honest (25% vs 50%) than the other way around.
That fits v well with my ‘lived experience’. You can see it too on here, those who don’t post anymore are generally lefties/Remainers who cannot accept the post Referendum political world
You can also see it on here, those who lash out vitriolically at others and are generally angry are those Remainers who can't accept what has happened.
There's a lot of bitterness about. A shame really.
Oh dear, the old scratched record again. Move on Phil, move on! lol. I am beginning to think you and Isam need to keep justifying it to yourselves because you know it is a pointless crock of shit, (just like Bozo does)
It is 40-50 year olds Labour needs to win voters from the Tories to get into government, 18-24s can do a protest vote to the Greens but they are overrepresented in safe Labour urban and university seats anyway
The world stopped when Jezza took to the stage at Glastonbury for some stary-eyed supporters.
BREXIT When asked to score their feelings towards the other side out of 100 – with 100 the “warmest” feeling, and 0 the “coldest” – Remainers rate their feelings towards Leavers at 29 out of 100, while Leavers give Remain voters a much “warmer” rating of 42 out of 100.
29% of Remain supporters say it’s hard to be friends with people who voted Leave in the EU referendum – around four times the 7% of Leavers who say the same about Remain voters.
It's hard to know whether this is Remainers being intolerant or Leavers being objectively worse people, though. What we need is an independent rating of the two groups, eg from someone who didn't care either way and didn't vote. Also, it is unarguable that Leavers' actions have had a bigger negative effect on Remainers than vice versa, simply because they won and got to impose their views on Remainers. Why would Leavers hate Remainers? Getting called nasty names on Twitter doesn't really compare in magnitude to having your rights to live and work anywhere in Europe taken away from you, unless you are an extreme Snowflake.
Well you also then have to admit that for 40 odd years the euphiles got to impose their views on the eusceptics. Why I remember someone on this board laughing about Brown signing lisbon without the promised referendum
For sure, but this poll is current. Right now, I think it is undeniable that if either side has a legitimate grievance against the other it is Remainers, simply because they lost.
I wonder what a similar poll would have found between 2017-19 when Remainers were preventing Brexit happening, and calling out anyone who thought the vote should just be respected rather than ran again
Andrew Lilico @andrew_lilico I feel like we are still nowhere on debating the question: "How many hospitalisations per week, at peak, is acceptable for an Exit Wave if the NHS is not at any threat of being swamped?" That is *the* key qstn re whether we should proceed with Step 4 now.
If the NHS is not at any threat of being swamped, then any number that happens is the right answer.
Parliament needs a proper debate. Can't be left to Gove and Hancock to decide on their own. More balanced approach and a wider debate needed or we will never get out of this.
Where is Sunak? He has been very very quiet of late.
Well, if restrictions are to be continued then the planned removal of support for affected businesses will have to continue. And nothing has been said about this, has it? It couldn't possibly be because they are going to continue with restrictions but remove the support, could it?
Firstly, it is not really true that Green Belts have been expanded. They were a policy tool originating in the 1950s to limit the expansion of towns and cities as there was a worry about unplanned sprawl. Somehow, some places ended up with Green Belts, others didn't: it is somewhat random. As far as I know, most of them were designated in in the 1950's and 60's. Green Belts have subsequently become linked to ideals about towns and country and have taken on a mythology of their own. They certainly have a visual function in terms of seperating urban areas thus preserving their identity. However, because of the proximity to infrastructure and services, it is some of the best land to develop for housing in a productive and socially useful way. It is true that many of the problems to do with housing, particularly around the south east; and London in particular; could be addressed by way of developing this land; but this would undoubtedly result in a significant change to the urban and rural landscape, which needs to be considered carefully.
With regard to housing more generally, the idea that you should deregulate and let people build anything anywhere is one that can only be entertained if you are happy to have almost no countryside at all, because that is what would occur within a single generation: there would be large scale unplanned suburban sprawl of the type that the planning system was introduced in 1948 to stop from happening. This is along with many other potential adverse consequences, too many to list. The problem is that the demand for housing is endless, and the extent of developable land in this country is very limited. It is not at all like places like the USA or Scandinavia where there is a lot of land. Fortunately this won't happen, because people in England are fond of the Countryside. This is a seperate issue to Nimbyism, they shouldn't be confused.
(TBC)
Part of the problem is that people don't want to make obvious linkages. The Green Belt wasn't an issue (much) until the government decided that they wanted a bigger population.
Which leaves these options
- Stop the population growing - Everyone moves to flats which must get smaller, year by year - Fuck (some of) the Green Belt
The mystical brown fields sites will not solve the problem. Not at the current rates of population expansion.
The population isn't growing, UK births per mother is only 1.8.
It is increased immigration, divorces etc which has let to more demand. Tighten immigration controls further, encourage the traditional family and it would be less of an issue.
No reason why we cannot build more high rise flats in London and skyscrapers as befits a global city to reduce the pressure for increased housing in the greenbelt
Apart from most people don't really want to live in high rises. I have met many that expressed a desire for a detatched house never yet have I heard anyone yearn to live on the 20th floor of nelson mandela towers
Understandably. Most people want to be cremated after their death not while they're asleep.
On the "who's getting hospitalised/who will get hospitalised?" front, we don't need to guess. The NHS have published the age data up until the 6th of June.
I've had a bit of a play. Looking at the relationship between number of hospitalisations and number of cases 10 days earlier (very crude), it does look as though ages 0-5 and 6-17 are getting hospitalised in nearly twice the ratio they were before. 18-54 are up 25%-30%; 55-64 down to under half, and then down to a third and then a quarter as you get older. I'm assuming a chunk of the older ones are vax refusers and another chunk are breakthroughs.
The unhelpfully wide 18-54 is a max of pre-vaxxed and one-dose-vaxxed, with a handful of double-vaxxed, so it does look as though around double the ratio is about right for Delta.
However - that massive drop in the oldies in comparison to the young is why the numbers are so far down. If the proportion of cases had remained the same across all age ranges, we'd have passed 300 hospitalisations per day around the 5th of June (in England alone) and be past 3,000 in hospital (in comparison, we only passed 100 hospitalisations per day consistently on the 6th of June and had 807 in hospital).
(And this is over and above vax effects slowing spread and infections).
So the link between cases and hospitalisations isn't broken, but the ratio is significantly reduced (even in the face of Delta doubling it in raw terms) and that ratio will continue to go down week on week as more doses go into more arms.
However - should the cases continue to rise at the same rate and the ratio between cases and hospitalisations remain unchanged (which they won't, so this is a line that we should be peeling away from), we would be passing 350 admissions per day (largely in the young) by 21st of June and over 2000 in hospital by that point.
Should the proportion of 18-54 drop towards the 55-64s and the 55-64s join the older groups at their level, then that 350-odd will be c. 220-odd, and the number in hospital would drop to the 1200-1300 range by then.
I would also expect the increase in cases to be slowing down with the increased vaccination as well, but to extrapolate that would be to add crude estimate on top of crude estimate.
+1 on that.
If this analysis is correct, and I am not saying that is isn't, then pray tell why are other European countries opening up with far lower levels of vaccination than Britain? (as May pointed out today)
Why have some US states opened up completely for weeks with lower levels of vaccination?
For the above to happen without the health systems of these countries being swamped (which they are manifestly not), the assumptions you are making simply cannot be true.
It is just not possible. There must be other factors.
Delta is different, and the ratio of Delta to other variants is important.
First off: halve all numbers if Delta levels are negligible. Sorted. Second off: reduce spread significantly (in the UK, that would put spread into reverse) if Delta is not a significant chunk. So there would be, right now, maybe a half to a quarter of cases, multiplied by a ratio half of what it currently is. Hospitalisations would be maybe 40 per day (and dropping) and numbers in hospital maybe 300 (and dropping).
In England, Delta has grown to be the dominant strain almost everywhere (from a small percentage a few weeks back). As with Alpha, it grows under the waterline at first.
Here's an example. Say that you had 1000 cases per day and 6% were Delta and the rest were Alpha. And, say that you'd pushed Alpha down to an R of about 0.9 by a combination of vaccination and residual minor restrictions (in whichever ratio). But Delta is 50% more infectious than Alpha.
This is what the cases would look like iteration by iteration:
Each iteration is somewhere between 5 days and a week. The US is around the level of iteration 1. We're around iteration 12.
However - as vaccination levels increase, then the R value of even Delta comes down. The US is gambling that by the time they get to around iteration 10-12, their vax levels will be considerably higher.
We're hoping that as we dose 14 million more every four weeks, we won't see the latter stages of that rise.
We are just unlucky to be the only european country with a substantial Indian population.
I feel happy seeing that, as I predicted the Greens would eat up the young Corbynite vote as soon as Starmer took over
We will revisit your happiness after the 23/24 election.
It's a foregone conclusion. Another win for Boris.
I don’t think so.
We're halfway through the electoral cycle; the Tories are about 10 points ahead, Boris is ahead of Starmer in leader ratings. Midterm should be a time of plenty for the opposition, instead they've lost one by-election, got trounced in local elections and may well win another. Wales, the one place they're holding up on it's own isn't enough for Labour to win. Starmer's ratings are seriously underwater. There's no resurgence in Scotland for Labour. I'd love to see your workings for Starmer to become PM at the next election.
BREXIT When asked to score their feelings towards the other side out of 100 – with 100 the “warmest” feeling, and 0 the “coldest” – Remainers rate their feelings towards Leavers at 29 out of 100, while Leavers give Remain voters a much “warmer” rating of 42 out of 100.
29% of Remain supporters say it’s hard to be friends with people who voted Leave in the EU referendum – around four times the 7% of Leavers who say the same about Remain voters.
It's hard to know whether this is Remainers being intolerant or Leavers being objectively worse people, though. What we need is an independent rating of the two groups, eg from someone who didn't care either way and didn't vote. Also, it is unarguable that Leavers' actions have had a bigger negative effect on Remainers than vice versa, simply because they won and got to impose their views on Remainers. Why would Leavers hate Remainers? Getting called nasty names on Twitter doesn't really compare in magnitude to having your rights to live and work anywhere in Europe taken away from you, unless you are an extreme Snowflake.
Well you also then have to admit that for 40 odd years the euphiles got to impose their views on the eusceptics. Why I remember someone on this board laughing about Brown signing lisbon without the promised referendum
For sure, but this poll is current. Right now, I think it is undeniable that if either side has a legitimate grievance against the other it is Remainers, simply because they lost.
Well eusceptics lost for 40 years, each step not getting a say, each election not having a party that was on their side and they could vote for because they cared about other issues as well. If either of the main parties had been not captured by euphilia they would have had an outlet a lot earlier. We should have had a referendum on every treaty and we would still probably have been in the eu albeit a much more restricted one
For some reason that reminds me of the Rowan Atkinson story - he discovered that he could buy super cars, crash them (he seems to have bad luck with his driving), get them repaired multiple times, then sell them at a big profit, as owned by R.A.....
His McLaren F1 accident was the biggest single vehicle claim in UK insurance history.
Really? Given the issue of princelings in mega cars in London, I am astonished that someone hasn't managed to write off his Veyron*, his mates Veyron, and a bunch of innocent passersby......
EDIT - Talking of idiots, a local fool has stuck an L badge on his Tesla P100D and is teaching his children to drive in it. Given that he also has one of those tiny Fiats, is this insane? Or is that just me?
Anyone who can afford a Tesla can afford to pay for proper driving lessons, although these have only recently reopened after lockdown. Once the children can drive a bit, there probably is an argument for introducing them to electric cars, just as there is for showing them how to drive on motorways or in bad weather.
Teaching your children to drive is perfectly sensible.
Teaching them to drive in a large car with super car acceleration - which has created a genre of videos on Reddit and elsewhere with the results of accidentally hitting the accelerator at the wrong moment - seems stupid.
There is a a reason why driving school cars are small hatch backs, with small engines.
Not all driving school cars! This one just opened up near me... https://edi-uae.com/en/platinum-Driving-Course/ “ You want to drive a luxury car, so why not learn to drive safely in one too! “We are proud to launch the “Platinum Driving Course,” for our customers to learn how to drive on luxury-high end cars ie Mini Cooper, Bentley Bentayga, Porsche Cayenne, Range Rover Sport, Mercedes G500 & C200, TESLA, and Nissan Patrol are chosen to keep customer’s exclusivity in mind. ”
People who support more “liberal” or left-leaning sides of debates on culture war issues such as Black Lives Matter and transgender rights, and on party politics and Brexit, are more likely to say they struggle to be friends with those who take the opposing point of view, according to a new study.
Conversely, people who support more “traditional” or right-leaning sides of these debates tend to be more incorrect on some key social realities, such as earning gaps between ethnic minority and white workers and how likely transgender people are to be victims of crime.
35% of Labour supporters say it would be hard to be friends with people who vote Conservative – five times the proportion of Conservative supporters (7%) who say the same about those who vote Labour.
Labour supporters are more likely to describe Conservatives as selfish (74% vs 30%), closed-minded (75% vs 59%) and hypocritical (67% vs 52%) than the reverse, and half as likely to see them as honest (25% vs 50%) than the other way around.
I wouldn't be friends with somebody who I thought was racist or homophobic. I don't think that makes me intolerant. You don't have to tolerate other people's intolerance.
People who support more “liberal” or left-leaning sides of debates on culture war issues such as Black Lives Matter and transgender rights, and on party politics and Brexit, are more likely to say they struggle to be friends with those who take the opposing point of view, according to a new study.
Conversely, people who support more “traditional” or right-leaning sides of these debates tend to be more incorrect on some key social realities, such as earning gaps between ethnic minority and white workers and how likely transgender people are to be victims of crime.
35% of Labour supporters say it would be hard to be friends with people who vote Conservative – five times the proportion of Conservative supporters (7%) who say the same about those who vote Labour.
Labour supporters are more likely to describe Conservatives as selfish (74% vs 30%), closed-minded (75% vs 59%) and hypocritical (67% vs 52%) than the reverse, and half as likely to see them as honest (25% vs 50%) than the other way around.
That fits v well with my ‘lived experience’. You can see it too on here, those who don’t post anymore are generally lefties/Remainers who cannot accept the post Referendum political world
You can also see it on here, those who lash out vitriolically at others and are generally angry are those Remainers who can't accept what has happened.
There's a lot of bitterness about. A shame really.
Oh dear, the old scratched record again. Move on Phil, move on! lol. I am beginning to think you and Isam need to keep justifying it to yourselves because you know it is a pointless crock of shit, (just like Bozo does)
BREXIT When asked to score their feelings towards the other side out of 100 – with 100 the “warmest” feeling, and 0 the “coldest” – Remainers rate their feelings towards Leavers at 29 out of 100, while Leavers give Remain voters a much “warmer” rating of 42 out of 100.
29% of Remain supporters say it’s hard to be friends with people who voted Leave in the EU referendum – around four times the 7% of Leavers who say the same about Remain voters.
It's hard to know whether this is Remainers being intolerant or Leavers being objectively worse people, though. What we need is an independent rating of the two groups, eg from someone who didn't care either way and didn't vote. Also, it is unarguable that Leavers' actions have had a bigger negative effect on Remainers than vice versa, simply because they won and got to impose their views on Remainers. Why would Leavers hate Remainers? Getting called nasty names on Twitter doesn't really compare in magnitude to having your rights to live and work anywhere in Europe taken away from you, unless you are an extreme Snowflake.
I think it's also partly expectations. Most remainers expected to win in 2016, while most leavers didn't. Inevitably, then, remainers are much more disappointed and often bitter at having lost than I suspect leavers would have been.
Indeed plus I think many Remainers really haven't reconciled themselves to losing as a result. They just don't understand Brexit, they just don't understand the idea they've been rejected.
Hence the desperation to overturn it, the belief that only idiots or fools were "misled", the gullibility of the likes of Carole Codswallop and those who read her to believe there were nefarious actions in the referendum to steal the result and all of the conspiracy theories she has come up with and been believed. Hence also the malicious prosecutions of the likes of Darren Grimes, which the courts then tossed out.
If you can't understand where other people are coming from, that just shows your own ignorance, not that the other people are fools.
The Barbican started life as council flats, did it not? Town planning by the Luftwaffe.
Yes, I think it was. You won the lottery if you got a flat there and then Thatch gave you Right To Buy
I've been in a couple of Barbican flats, they are very nice inside. Well made. The brutalist exterior is not for everyone but I like the jagged silhouettes. Ceilings could be a tiny bit higher, but other than that rather pleasant. And wonderful views, especially at night. And of course you are surrounded by the gardens and history of the Barbican, which is still a bit of a hidden gem, despite the arts complex. It has a fabulous arboretum which few people know, see here
High rise if done well is fine for most people without kids, and that is quite a lot of people. Older people love the Barbican, for example
Barbican flats are very popular with very wealthy retired people, and with company CEOs and city financiers whose families are out in the sticks (or indeed around the world), giving them a safe flat a stone’s throw from the City and with a purpose built concert/cinema/theatre complex plus restaurants and bars with lots of up market clientele, right there.
Yes, it's a grand place to live
Horrific place to look at though. Four stunningly ugly browney-grey concrete eyesores.
I like them. Brooding and wild
They were the tallest towers in London when first built in about 1970.
BREXIT When asked to score their feelings towards the other side out of 100 – with 100 the “warmest” feeling, and 0 the “coldest” – Remainers rate their feelings towards Leavers at 29 out of 100, while Leavers give Remain voters a much “warmer” rating of 42 out of 100.
29% of Remain supporters say it’s hard to be friends with people who voted Leave in the EU referendum – around four times the 7% of Leavers who say the same about Remain voters.
You mean remainers aren't very tolerant of people with different viewpoints? Colour me shocked. But at least they change their pants regularly
As the sage of Hartlepool says, "lose, lose lose, Blair, Blair, Blair, lose, lose, lose, lose".
Yes, I think someone else would be doing better. Sir Keir is the architect of ‘The Peoples Vote’, a strident and proud Remainer who boasted of wanting to overturn The Leave victory. That’s a big reason why he is doomed.
I feel happy seeing that, as I predicted the Greens would eat up the young Corbynite vote as soon as Starmer took over
We will revisit your happiness after the 23/24 election.
I am getting ever more confident on my prediction of labour having less seats after the next election
There will have to be several strong years of delivery by the incumbents for that to happen.
Feel free to save that post and say "I told you so". I think even if nothing changes next election labour might gain a seat or two in the south east but will lose 10 to 15 more redwall seats
States of Guernsey COVID update - all the members of the British Irish Council are worried about the Delta variant - and since 2 jabs is required to be effective - so for the CTA "2 jabs + 14 days' = no restrictions. Estimate that by mid August the entire adult population will have 2 jabs + 2 weeks, so opening up beyond the CTA will have more checks/requirements.
People who support more “liberal” or left-leaning sides of debates on culture war issues such as Black Lives Matter and transgender rights, and on party politics and Brexit, are more likely to say they struggle to be friends with those who take the opposing point of view, according to a new study.
Conversely, people who support more “traditional” or right-leaning sides of these debates tend to be more incorrect on some key social realities, such as earning gaps between ethnic minority and white workers and how likely transgender people are to be victims of crime.
35% of Labour supporters say it would be hard to be friends with people who vote Conservative – five times the proportion of Conservative supporters (7%) who say the same about those who vote Labour.
Labour supporters are more likely to describe Conservatives as selfish (74% vs 30%), closed-minded (75% vs 59%) and hypocritical (67% vs 52%) than the reverse, and half as likely to see them as honest (25% vs 50%) than the other way around.
That fits v well with my ‘lived experience’. You can see it too on here, those who don’t post anymore are generally lefties/Remainers who cannot accept the post Referendum political world
You can also see it on here, those who lash out vitriolically at others and are generally angry are those Remainers who can't accept what has happened.
There's a lot of bitterness about. A shame really.
Oh dear, the old scratched record again. Move on Phil, move on! lol. I am beginning to think you and Isam need to keep justifying it to yourselves because you know it is a pointless crock of shit, (just like Bozo does)
I wonder what part of "those who lash out vitriolically at others and are generally angry" bitterness got your attention? 🤔
I've moved on. I've been talking about housing and other issues. Its people like you and @Scott_xP who keep choosing to bring the topic back to Europe. Why can't you let it go?
BREXIT When asked to score their feelings towards the other side out of 100 – with 100 the “warmest” feeling, and 0 the “coldest” – Remainers rate their feelings towards Leavers at 29 out of 100, while Leavers give Remain voters a much “warmer” rating of 42 out of 100.
29% of Remain supporters say it’s hard to be friends with people who voted Leave in the EU referendum – around four times the 7% of Leavers who say the same about Remain voters.
It's hard to know whether this is Remainers being intolerant or Leavers being objectively worse people, though. What we need is an independent rating of the two groups, eg from someone who didn't care either way and didn't vote. Also, it is unarguable that Leavers' actions have had a bigger negative effect on Remainers than vice versa, simply because they won and got to impose their views on Remainers. Why would Leavers hate Remainers? Getting called nasty names on Twitter doesn't really compare in magnitude to having your rights to live and work anywhere in Europe taken away from you, unless you are an extreme Snowflake.
Well you also then have to admit that for 40 odd years the euphiles got to impose their views on the eusceptics. Why I remember someone on this board laughing about Brown signing lisbon without the promised referendum
For sure, but this poll is current. Right now, I think it is undeniable that if either side has a legitimate grievance against the other it is Remainers, simply because they lost.
Well eusceptics lost for 40 years, each step not getting a say, each election not having a party that was on their side and they could vote for because they cared about other issues as well. If either of the main parties had been not captured by euphilia they would have had an outlet a lot earlier. We should have had a referendum on every treaty and we would still probably have been in the eu albeit a much more restricted one
I don't disagree but this is just whataboutery. The question is why *right now* do Remainers dislike Leavers more than vice versa, and I think the answer is self-evident.
People who support more “liberal” or left-leaning sides of debates on culture war issues such as Black Lives Matter and transgender rights, and on party politics and Brexit, are more likely to say they struggle to be friends with those who take the opposing point of view, according to a new study.
Conversely, people who support more “traditional” or right-leaning sides of these debates tend to be more incorrect on some key social realities, such as earning gaps between ethnic minority and white workers and how likely transgender people are to be victims of crime.
35% of Labour supporters say it would be hard to be friends with people who vote Conservative – five times the proportion of Conservative supporters (7%) who say the same about those who vote Labour.
Labour supporters are more likely to describe Conservatives as selfish (74% vs 30%), closed-minded (75% vs 59%) and hypocritical (67% vs 52%) than the reverse, and half as likely to see them as honest (25% vs 50%) than the other way around.
That fits v well with my ‘lived experience’. You can see it too on here, those who don’t post anymore are generally lefties/Remainers who cannot accept the post Referendum political world
You can also see it on here, those who lash out vitriolically at others and are generally angry are those Remainers who can't accept what has happened.
There's a lot of bitterness about. A shame really.
It's people like you and Isam that can't move on. We were all very happy that Johnson's oven ready (for the microwave) deal ended the uncertainty.
It is your boy Frost who is claiming the EU 'done him up like a kipper'. Don't blame former-Remainers, we took your word that it was a 'great deal'.
The only ones whining on about Brexit are the PB Boris fanclub.
As the sage of Hartlepool says, "lose, lose lose, Blair, Blair, Blair, lose, lose, lose, lose".
Yes, I think someone else would be doing better. Sir Keir is the architect of ‘The Peoples Vote’, a strident and proud Remainer who boasted of wanting to overturn The Leave victory. That’s a big reason why he is doomed.
I was winding him up to be honest.
I said weeks ago that the best option Labour had was John Mann (now in the lords, of course) partly because he supported Brexit.
People who support more “liberal” or left-leaning sides of debates on culture war issues such as Black Lives Matter and transgender rights, and on party politics and Brexit, are more likely to say they struggle to be friends with those who take the opposing point of view, according to a new study.
Conversely, people who support more “traditional” or right-leaning sides of these debates tend to be more incorrect on some key social realities, such as earning gaps between ethnic minority and white workers and how likely transgender people are to be victims of crime.
35% of Labour supporters say it would be hard to be friends with people who vote Conservative – five times the proportion of Conservative supporters (7%) who say the same about those who vote Labour.
Labour supporters are more likely to describe Conservatives as selfish (74% vs 30%), closed-minded (75% vs 59%) and hypocritical (67% vs 52%) than the reverse, and half as likely to see them as honest (25% vs 50%) than the other way around.
That fits v well with my ‘lived experience’. You can see it too on here, those who don’t post anymore are generally lefties/Remainers who cannot accept the post Referendum political world
You can also see it on here, those who lash out vitriolically at others and are generally angry are those Remainers who can't accept what has happened.
There's a lot of bitterness about. A shame really.
It's people like you and Isam that can't move on. We were all very happy that Johnson's oven ready (for the microwave) deal ended the uncertainty.
It is your boy Frost who is claiming the EU 'done him up like a kipper'. Don't blame former-Remainers, we took your word that it was a 'great deal'.
The only ones whining on about Brexit are the PB Boris fanclub.
Ah sheer bliss and contentment put into words. Why can’t I be as happy? ☹️
Context here on whether young people should be given AZ on a balance of risks basis. I would say the crossover is between the Low (55/100 000) and Medium (400/100 000) case rates. This analysis was pre-delta so the crossover may be a bit lower.
I feel happy seeing that, as I predicted the Greens would eat up the young Corbynite vote as soon as Starmer took over
We will revisit your happiness after the 23/24 election.
I am getting ever more confident on my prediction of labour having less seats after the next election
There will have to be several strong years of delivery by the incumbents for that to happen.
Feel free to save that post and say "I told you so". I think even if nothing changes next election labour might gain a seat or two in the south east but will lose 10 to 15 more redwall seats
Courageous long way out mid term current polls with jab effect prediction from you. Can you also say what the weather is going to be like late May 2024?
BREXIT When asked to score their feelings towards the other side out of 100 – with 100 the “warmest” feeling, and 0 the “coldest” – Remainers rate their feelings towards Leavers at 29 out of 100, while Leavers give Remain voters a much “warmer” rating of 42 out of 100.
29% of Remain supporters say it’s hard to be friends with people who voted Leave in the EU referendum – around four times the 7% of Leavers who say the same about Remain voters.
You mean remainers aren't very tolerant of people with different viewpoints? Colour me shocked. But at least they change their pants regularly
You're not the most tolerant yourself tbf.
I am robust in my language it is true that is not the same as being intolerant though it is more through frustration. For example you and I have crossed swords on the abolition of private schools
Me : If you do that x y z will happen You: It won't happen don't worry Me: But it already happens You: It won't happen don't worry Me: gets frustrated and uses robust language
BREXIT When asked to score their feelings towards the other side out of 100 – with 100 the “warmest” feeling, and 0 the “coldest” – Remainers rate their feelings towards Leavers at 29 out of 100, while Leavers give Remain voters a much “warmer” rating of 42 out of 100.
29% of Remain supporters say it’s hard to be friends with people who voted Leave in the EU referendum – around four times the 7% of Leavers who say the same about Remain voters.
It's easy to be chillaxed after winning. Those numbers would be inverted if it'd had gone Ref2 and Remain.
I feel happy seeing that, as I predicted the Greens would eat up the young Corbynite vote as soon as Starmer took over
We will revisit your happiness after the 23/24 election.
I am getting ever more confident on my prediction of labour having less seats after the next election
There will have to be several strong years of delivery by the incumbents for that to happen.
Feel free to save that post and say "I told you so". I think even if nothing changes next election labour might gain a seat or two in the south east but will lose 10 to 15 more redwall seats
Courageous long way out mid term current polls with jab effect prediction from you. Can you also say what the weather is going to be like late May 2024?
As the sage of Hartlepool says, "lose, lose lose, Blair, Blair, Blair, lose, lose, lose, lose".
Yes, I think someone else would be doing better. Sir Keir is the architect of ‘The Peoples Vote’, a strident and proud Remainer who boasted of wanting to overturn The Leave victory. That’s a big reason why he is doomed.
Comments
I nearly bought one, yonks ago. Kinda regret it now
The worst areas of Warrington are the high density areas like 'awful Orford'.
As for Liverpool, its far too high density already.
1. Tony Blair +35 <- lol
2. Boris Johnson -3
3. Margaret Thatcher -27
4. David Cameron -28
5. Theresa May -32
6. Gordon Brown - 39
7. John Major -44
Ipsos MORI
Ht @Keiranpedley </i>
https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1403321611026108417?s=20
Meanwhile, anyone who actually prefers Corbyn and his crew to Starmer and his crew will always be a laughing stock from here on.
Conversely, people who support more “traditional” or right-leaning sides of these debates tend to be more incorrect on some key social realities, such as earning gaps between ethnic minority and white workers and how likely transgender people are to be victims of crime.
35% of Labour supporters say it would be hard to be friends with people who vote Conservative – five times the proportion of Conservative supporters (7%) who say the same about those who vote Labour.
Labour supporters are more likely to describe Conservatives as selfish (74% vs 30%), closed-minded (75% vs 59%) and hypocritical (67% vs 52%) than the reverse, and half as likely to see them as honest (25% vs 50%) than the other way around.
https://www.kcl.ac.uk/news/liberals-have-most-difficulty-getting-along-with-opponents-on-culture-war-issues#.YMMzREyKI44.twitter
Like everyone does when SKS starts to speak!
First off: halve all numbers if Delta levels are negligible. Sorted.
Second off: reduce spread significantly (in the UK, that would put spread into reverse) if Delta is not a significant chunk. So there would be, right now, maybe a half to a quarter of cases, multiplied by a ratio half of what it currently is. Hospitalisations would be maybe 40 per day (and dropping) and numbers in hospital maybe 300 (and dropping).
In England, Delta has grown to be the dominant strain almost everywhere (from a small percentage a few weeks back). As with Alpha, it grows under the waterline at first.
Here's an example. Say that you had 1000 cases per day and 6% were Delta and the rest were Alpha. And, say that you'd pushed Alpha down to an R of about 0.9 by a combination of vaccination and residual minor restrictions (in whichever ratio). But Delta is 50% more infectious than Alpha.
This is what the cases would look like iteration by iteration:
Each iteration is somewhere between 5 days and a week. The US is around the level of iteration 1.
We're around iteration 12.
However - as vaccination levels increase, then the R value of even Delta comes down. The US is gambling that by the time they get to around iteration 10-12, their vax levels will be considerably higher.
We're hoping that as we dose 14 million more every four weeks, we won't see the latter stages of that rise.
It's a horrific place to look at. Four stunningly ugly browney-grey concrete eyesores blighting so many views of St Paul's.
BREXIT When asked to score their feelings towards the other side out of 100 – with 100 the “warmest” feeling, and 0 the “coldest” – Remainers rate their feelings towards Leavers at 29 out of 100, while Leavers give Remain voters a much “warmer” rating of 42 out of 100.
29% of Remain supporters say it’s hard to be friends with people who voted Leave in the EU referendum – around four times the 7% of Leavers who say the same about Remain voters.
If thats the plan Lab is completely fucked.
Chris Curtis
@chriscurtis94
Average voting intention of 18-24s from most recent
@YouGov
@RedfieldWilton
@SavantaComRes
polls:
Con 23
Lab 48
LD 8
Grn 15
Average voting intention of 18-34s from most recent @OpiniumResearch
@Survation
@IpsosMORI
polls:
Con 24
Lab 48
LD 9
Grn 11
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Con 23 (+2)
Lab 48 (-8)
LD 8 (-3)
Grn 15 (+11)
Didn’t end well 🥲
Lib Dems still moribund with younger voters.
There's a lot of bitterness about. A shame really.
Also, it is unarguable that Leavers' actions have had a bigger negative effect on Remainers than vice versa, simply because they won and got to impose their views on Remainers. Why would Leavers hate Remainers? Getting called nasty names on Twitter doesn't really compare in magnitude to having your rights to live and work anywhere in Europe taken away from you, unless you are an extreme Snowflake.
Literally what is the point of picking at 95mph bowler if he only bowls with a soft ball.
https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1403332201887027201?s=20
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/breaking-englands-covid-r-rate-24298873?7789=
https://twitter.com/FlashCric/status/1402985369872650250
I loathe puritanism.
https://www.techdirt.com/articles/20210609/16382846962/florida-sheriffs-intelligence-led-policing-effort-is-nothing-more-than-targeted-harassment-program.shtml
coming to uk police forces near you soon
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2021/jun/10/scotland-will-not-take-knee-at-euro-2020-but-pledge-to-tackle-racism )
Were there any?
Akin to "anti-racists" who are happy to use racial epithets against non-whites expressing wrongthink.
The mantle of virtue is what counts, rather than actually possessing it.
As the sage of Hartlepool says, "lose, lose lose, Blair, Blair, Blair, lose, lose, lose, lose".
I'd love to see your workings for Starmer to become PM at the next election.
https://edi-uae.com/en/platinum-Driving-Course/
“ You want to drive a luxury car, so why not learn to drive safely in one too!
“We are proud to launch the “Platinum Driving Course,” for our customers to learn how to drive on luxury-high end cars ie Mini Cooper, Bentley Bentayga, Porsche Cayenne, Range Rover Sport, Mercedes G500 & C200, TESLA, and Nissan Patrol are chosen to keep customer’s exclusivity in mind. ”
Hence the desperation to overturn it, the belief that only idiots or fools were "misled", the gullibility of the likes of Carole Codswallop and those who read her to believe there were nefarious actions in the referendum to steal the result and all of the conspiracy theories she has come up with and been believed. Hence also the malicious prosecutions of the likes of Darren Grimes, which the courts then tossed out.
If you can't understand where other people are coming from, that just shows your own ignorance, not that the other people are fools.
I've moved on. I've been talking about housing and other issues. Its people like you and @Scott_xP who keep choosing to bring the topic back to Europe. Why can't you let it go?
It is your boy Frost who is claiming the EU 'done him up like a kipper'. Don't blame former-Remainers, we took your word that it was a 'great deal'.
The only ones whining on about Brexit are the PB Boris fanclub.
I said weeks ago that the best option Labour had was John Mann (now in the lords, of course) partly because he supported Brexit.
https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/documents/chmp-annex/annex-vaxzevria-art53-visual-risk-contextualisation_en.pdf
Me : If you do that x y z will happen
You: It won't happen don't worry
Me: But it already happens
You: It won't happen don't worry
Me: gets frustrated and uses robust language
I mean I'm contemplating no longer telling jokes.
There's always a prat who will take offence and my high quality jokes.
A sad day for the world.
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