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Keir Starmer now slumps to Corbyn levels in the latest Ipsos leader ratings – politicalbetting.com
Keir Starmer now slumps to Corbyn levels in the latest Ipsos leader ratings – politicalbetting.com
Yesterday in an interview Starmer was asked whether he could name his party’s candidate in next week’s Chesham and Amersham by-election. He couldn’t and another indication of how badly things are going for him.
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https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/15214155/footy-loving-landlord-pub-euro-championship-flags-decorated-sheffield/
But, if they're not progressing to significant numbers of hospitalisations then it may be best to ensure vaccination, use a bit of common sense and let it wash.
What a tagline!
His -ve numbers are very much in line with Lab+LD+Grn.
This would seem to be a good point of validation.
https://twitter.com/PinkNews/status/1402586773499244549?s=20
Like nationalists the world over, they are spending all their time trying to work out how to solve problems that are caused only by their nationalism.
https://notesonnationalism.substack.com/p/are-we-supposed-to-take-this-seriously
At least, that’s my excuse.
1) We are not at herd immunity(*) for COVID
2) It will be very difficult to reach herd immunity. It may well not be possible.
3) Unlocking will therefore cause a rise in cases.
4) The hope/intention is that the cases will not lead to a rise in serious illness/deaths, due to vaccinations
5) The political problem is vulnerable groups
*Meaning R is below 1 for no restrictions. COVID dies out by itself.
"A few days ahead of the G7, consultation with NGOs. From day one, France has worked to make solutions to the pandemic a global public good. Sharing of doses, opening-up of intellectual property, funding of health systems. It's up to the G7 to commit!" - President Macron
https://twitter.com/FranceintheUK/status/1402922665841770504?s=20
The worst thing for e.g. hospitality would be a return to (even local) lockdowns in response to a slightly-worse-than-expected exit spike now.
Hancock certainly seems to know his stuff, which you should hope for a Health Secretary nearly a year and a half into a pandemic, and has good answers for the things Cummings brought up.
So take your 85+ group, multiply it out... that's a quite a few people who have no vaccine at all. CFR is 30% for them - get Covid, and 1/3rd die.
When you add in the factor that these pockets of low/no vax are socially concentrated.....
You won't find any 'tables' since for reasons which ought to be obvious, it's not a group easy for statisticians to identify even if it were a priority for them, which it hasn't been.
Even the government's own publications suggest as much.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/721642/GEO-LGBT-factsheet.pdf
How many trans people are there?
We don’t know. No robust data on the UK trans population exists. We tentatively estimate that there are approximately 200,000-500,000 trans people in the UK. The Office for National Statistics is researching whether and how to develop a population estimate.
Facts and Figures
41% of trans men and trans women responding to
a Stonewall survey said they had experienced a hate crime or incident because of their gender identity in the last 12 months. They also found that 25% of trans people had experienced homelessness at some point in their lives. Our national LGBT survey found similar results, with 67% of trans respondents saying they had avoided being open about their gender identity for fear of a negative reaction from others...
The trend is not Starmer's friend in that chart in the OP. I wonder if we'll see crossover soon and Starmer even more unpopular than Corbyn at the same point?
Mr. Walker, point of order: the vast majority of those opposing May's deal were pro-EU.
I am sure it is very dispiriting for SKS. SKS can see Johnson is a rogue, as we all can.
But, enough of the UK electorate think Johnson is a loveable old rogue.
It is very obvious SKS is going down to defeat in 2024.
SKS is MORE wooden and accident-prone than Ed Miliband. (Even some of the accidents are the same -- remember when Ed Miliband could not name the SLAB leader).
How come Labour carries on making the same mistakes again and again?
Presumably we are due for Corbyn Mark II, after SKS has resigned at 3.00 am on Friday 3rd May 2024.
1. Labour never remove their leaders mid-term
2. Who (of the serious contenders) would want the job at the moment?
Stamer will be left in place to take the next general election loss... Burnham will stand at the next election and then after Starmer loses the general election there will be a leadership contest which Burnham will win.
Burnham will be quite a popular LOTO and with Boris likely to stand down at some point in the next Parliament and the Tories probably becoming very unpopular after 15-20 years in power Burnham will win the following election around 2027-2029 and return Labour to government!
Big unknown is how Scotland fits in to all this. On that I have no idea... but that's how Mystic GIN sees the rest of the decade panning out.
Bet accordingly (or not) haha!!!
https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1402901660867993601?s=20
I can’t remember the various polling, but there was a continued plurality for a soft Brexit.
Mays wasn’t a true soft Brexit, but not a true hard Brexit.
Her deal died because
a) an unholy alliance between hard core Brexiters, the DUP, and Boris-putschists.
b) she was unwilling to pass the deal with opposition votes, fearing it would mean the end of her premiership because of (a).
BBC News - Maya Forstater: Woman wins tribunal appeal over transgender tweet
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57426579
Of more concern, will be the split among those who actually attend the matches.
Burnham has shown more ... street wisdom ... on how to oppose Boris than SKS.
Agreed, it was mainly posturing and emptiness, but it worked.
That's politics. That's what SKS is crap at.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O6aBWssGnng
Stand out line: one aircraft was seen doing 46,000 miles an hour - 60 times the speed of sound
And not a boo to be heard.
The victory for Maya Forstater, who was backed by JK Rowling and SNP MP Joanna Cherry QC, means people with ‘gender critical’ beliefs must not be sacked simply for holding them.
However, they cannot express them in a way that discriminates against trans people.
Ms Cherry said the decision should end discrimination against academics, trade unionists and others like herself who had been bullied and threatened because of their beliefs.
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19362788.maya-forstater-wins-landmark-employment-case-gender-critical-beliefs/
b) She was unable to pass the deal with opposition votes because the opposition opposed. Had Corbyn whipped his MPs to abstain on the Meaningful Vote then the deal would have gone through, we'd have been trapped in a ludicrous BRINO backstop deal and the Tory party would have been torn asunder in bitterness.
I said at the time that when you've got MPs who really like the EU and MPs who really dislike the EU voting the same way, someone's screwing it up.
The dumb soft pro-EU MPs of the Commons rejected everything and guaranteed that we'd leave on harder terms. It was epitomised by the lauded Grieve shrieking it was 'too late' when he was given the exact concession he'd asked for, but still didn't vote for it.
I know this is going over old ground, but people generally should try to at least learn something from it. To tie it into the football story, pointing at people and telling them they're wicked for disliking the EU, or a gesture associated with iconoclast barbarians, isn't going to persuade them. The Little Englander nonsense from Cameron was dumb as hell, yet there were plenty of pro-EU types here tittering about it.
Why would anyone vote for an opposition that has supported the government at every turn during one of the most important periods of post-war history? Even Jezza realised that an opposition should oppose.
And national emergency my arse. Of course it was an extreme time but we weren't at war.
I guess all politicians do though, Boris does too now I come to think of it
Starmer can take comfort from the fact that the only alternative Labour figures who are seen to be better potential PMs than him, Khan and Burnham, are not even MPs at present
He could have played to his strengths as a serious, thoughtful type, to come up with constructive suggestions on how things might be done better, but he’s said nothing substantive except in hindsight, and focussed excessively on trivialities like wallpaper.
SKS fans please explain
The pro-EU MPs swallowed their own spin hook, line and sinker and thought they would win and overturn Brexit entirely rather than compromise on a BRINO Backstop that effectively kept us trapped in the Single Market and Customs Union with the EU having a veto on us ever leaving it.
Seeing Grieve kicked out of the party after his behaviour, then comprehensively thrashed at Beaconsfield and an hard rather than soft Brexit follow was really enjoyable.
I don't hold out much hope for this country having enlightened leadership any time soon. I hope it's cyclical but I worry we are in secular decline.
Johnson's genius has been his non-stop campaigning throughout the pandemic (something I was critical of, considering it tasteless during the height of a pandemic where thousands of people were dying each week). The campaigning has paid dividends and has given the impression that vaccine, procurement, programming and delivery were all entirely his gift to the nation, and now we a reaping the benefits- a nation unlocked and Covid vanquished. (Remember, perception, not reality, although the link between Covid and deaths seems over).
I still cannot see past the early stages of a chaotic economy this time next year, which is why I feel Johnson should go very, very, early Spring/ early Autumn 2022. I believe the economic strife will take a year or so to fully make its mark on Johnson, which is why 2024 is too late.
The tribunal decision seems pretty uncontroversial to me. Has Starmer ever even hinted that it's OK to sack someone simply for holding such beliefs ?
Opposing would have involved taking a different view to government and selling it. All Labour has to said, "they should have done the same things, but harder, earlier and for longer". Doing something else would have involved political skill and leadership. It is not obvious that Starmer, or indeed the people around him, have the mental mindmap to do that.
For example, if one or two young people die in August as a result then the salience of that will be far higher than if hundreds of older people are dying daily, and burying it as a result, and therefore there will be a higher "shock" factor with political consequences.
People get far more upset by a gut-wrenching personal tragedy than a statistic.
The most damaging form of such discrimination, and it's far from uncommon, is when it comes from those individuals' own families. Which is what accounts for that homelessness figure.
"She believes trans women holding certificates that recognise their transgender identity cannot describe themselves as women."
BBC News - Maya Forstater: Woman wins tribunal appeal over transgender tweet
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57426579