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This polling on the COVID crisis from Survation is not very good for ministers – politicalbetting.co
This polling on the COVID crisis from Survation is not very good for ministers – politicalbetting.com
With our lives continuing to be constrained by the anti-COVID protection measures perceptions like the above look set to have a big impact. The most damaging one above is on the statement about tens of thousands having died. What is interesting is that the same poll has the Tories unchanged with a 10% lead.
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Voters clearly felt the government locked down too late last year but the success of the vaccination programme this year has boosted its reputation on the handling of the Covid pandemic for now
‘Now that B.1.617 variants are emerging here in Houston presumably elsewhere medrxiv.org/content/10.110… my concern is that these VOCs will accelerate across Southern US this summer among the high percentage of unvaccinated. South vaccinated at one-half level of the North, troubling’
https://twitter.com/peterhotez/status/1398606165060329473?s=21
Which they would probably have settled for. A very poor end to a crisis is not the way you want to be remembered....
However, it should be noted it was tried in Wales and didn’t work.
I regret, as someone who was a Labour supporter most of his adult life, that credible alternative is just not there at the moment. Labour is an untenable coalition of strong minded socialists and equally strong minded social liberals. The problem is that the former is an anathema in the South, the latter an anathema in the Midlands and North. Until someone can square that circle the Tories can spectacularly screw up as often as they like.
Which unfortunately had the predictable side effect of spreading cases much faster.
However, that was before vaccines.
I still think that the biggest mistake all the way through has not been to temporarily reorganise the school year so that all holidays lasted at least two weeks, even if we’d had to reduce teaching days. After all, it would hardly have been worse than nine weeks of lockdown. And I think it could have been sold to the staff and their unions as a one-off.
Edit - although Wales’ circuit breaker wasn’t a complete disaster. It led them to make the early call on cancelling exams and moving to a sensible replacement, rather than England and especially Scotland, where the whole thing has been made up on the back of a fag packet. Again.
If the economy goes downhill in the next few years then while a Labour majority remains unlikely a PM Starmer propped up by LD gains in the South, Labour gains in London and part of the Red Wall and the SNP remains possible
Lockdowns work over longer time scales - just look at the start of lockdowns in various countries vs when the effects really started to show.
Now, some elections are harder to win from opposition than others, but they do need to be won rather than just being the other lot.
So really I'd say its just a white label VI poll
So far, in this crisis we have
- Lockdowns work
- Vaccines work
Both take weeks to take effect. Changing the trajectory of this disease can't be done in 2 weeks. It has been demonstrated by the start of lockdowns in dozens of countries.
Clear blue sky, cricket being played, people sitting in the park in small groups
Who would have thought a little slice of normalcy would lift the spirits that much.
But what am I saying - too many vested interests in a band aid, plus a sticking plaster, plus something as a solution.....
If the choice is between Con and a Lab/LD/SNP stitch up, then Con keeps winning almost however badly they do. If they need to switch out the leader after a few years, then they’ll do it. As happened in 1990, 2003 and 2019.
Lab needs to be in 1997 territory, or Con will keep winning.
‘12 Conclusion
Up until this point, we have been presenting each of our claims in a vacuum. Let us put them together:
At some point in late 2019, many people who visited the The Huanan Seafood Market fell ill due to a new disease. To date the origin of this disease is unknown.
This market is less than 9 miles away from The Wuhan Institute of Virology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, which:
Collaborated with French authorities to construct its BSL-4 lab, however the company meant to inspect its safety standards bailed out of the project and French scientists who were supposed to work there were never sent there
Developed chimeric SARS-like coronaviruses
Conducted ’dangerous’ gain-of-function research on the SARS-CoV-1 virus
Established a 96.2% match with SARS-CoV-2 and a virus they sampled from a cave over 1,000 miles away from Wuhan
Injected live piglets with bat coronaviruses as recently as July 2019: Paper 5, Paper 7, Paper 8
Tested its disinfecting procedures with a bat coronavirus
Published a paper on a close descendant of SARS-CoV-1, MERS-CoV, in November 2019
Collected bat samples with improper PPE even after a researcher was bitten by one
Was hiring researchers to work on bat coronaviruses as recently as November 2019
The United States State Department claimed had ’inadequate safety’
Deleted a press release detailing a U.S. State Department visit
Has not provided concrete evidence that one of their prior researchers is still alive, despite rumors on Chinese social media that they are "Patient Zero", despite one of their other top researchers coming out and swearing the virus had nothing to do with her lab.....’
There is a plenty of space for a social and economic justice program. The key is to sell it as social and economic justice for *everyone* rather than a matrix of special interests. If you look at the Labour manifesto in 45, for example, it was about *everyone* - not just a set of client groups.
‘The market is also less than 3 miles away from the Wuhan Centre for Disease Control, which:
Was actually already accused of being the source of the outbreak from a now-withdrawn academic paper from a notable Chinese scholar at the South China University of China
Once kept horseshoe bats, a known reservoir of SARS-CoV-1, within its labs
Once performed surgery on live animals within its labs
Is continuing to refuse an independent investigation into the outbreak origins and threatened Australia with boycotts if they investigated
Had a researcher who quarantined on two separate occasions; once upon coming into contact with bat blood after being ’attacked’ and another time when he was urinated upon in a cave while wearing inadequate personal protection
Let us also look at the actions of China before and after the outbreak, which:
Had the SARS-CoV-1 virus escape from a lab in Beijing, twice
Compensated families after 27 students were infected with Brucella bacteria during an anatomy course in 2011
Is currently investigating a similar Brucella outbreak amongst "over 100 Students and Staff" in December 2019
Issued bio-safety guidelines to ’fix chronic management loopholes at virus labs’
Arrested a ’top academician’ for illegally selling lab animals and ’experimental milk’ in January 2020
Censored local medical professionals who attempted to report the outbreak
Ordered local labs to destroy any samples of the new virus
Back to the market: the The Huanan Seafood Market didn’t even have bats for sale, and most bats species in Wuhan would be hibernating at the time of outbreak. It was reported that 34% of cases had no contact with the market, and ’No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases’.
If an infected animal was indeed the culprit, why did it fail to infect a single person outside of the market? It could not have been infected at the market, because there were no bats that could serve as sources of infection. So, where were all the infected people outside of Wuhan by the time SARS-CoV-2 started spreading in the market?
We hope that this document adequately addressed each claim with what evidence is available and fulfilled its secondary responsibility of educating you on biolaboratory safety. By now, we hope you understand that these claims are not impossible; they are in fact more than likely.’
I think the hibernation bit is wrong
https://project-evidence.github.io/
If its not taking off in the part of Dewsbury where the poor Asians live then it will struggle almost everywhere else.
Yes business will say they need notice, but really they are screwed regardless.
However, I am amused by the fact that the DfE’s proposed new school year assumes there are eighteen weeks between 1st September and 25th December instead of the sixteen and a half weeks there actually are.
I mean, all teachers knew that they were innumerate cretins who make Indie Sage look like models of ability and integrity but we never thought they would display it quite so blatantly.
Starmer has neutralised the reason to vote against Labour, but he's also neutralised the reason to vote for Labour for many too. Hence the disappointment of @bigjohnowls and others who were attracted to Corbynism.
Starmer is just neutral. Beige.
The problem for Labour is they seem to want to win purely by virtue of "not being Tories" which has kind of been all Labour has had going for it for a while, but the problem is the public don't hate the Tories in the same way as Labour hardcore do.
So Starmer is neither giving a reason for or against voting Labour. Leaving the field to Boris. Boris is giving a reason for people to vote Tory, Starmer is not giving a reason for people to vote Labour, so the Tories win by default.
No noticeable difference in outcome.
However winning in 2024 would still be quite a feat, with Boris winning a general election after 10 years of his party in power, something only Major managed to do in 1992 in the last 100 years
Back on 1st September for seven weeks
Break up around the 20th October for two weeks.
Back on the 3rd November for another seven weeks
Then break up on 21st December for two weeks.
Back on the 3rd Jan for six weeks
Break up on the 14th Feb for one week
Back on the 21st for six weeks
Off on the 2nd April for two weeks
Back on the sixteenth for seven weeks
Off on the 4th June for two weeks - possibly move the early summer bank holiday to match
Back on the 18th for seven weeks
Off from the 5th August for (approximately) four weeks.
Roughly speaking, that would work out at what we have now, much better spaced out. And I think many staff would be happy to have the break at the start of June for a decent holiday (perhaps abroad) to compensate for losing time in July. Plus, extending the half term in the brutally long autumn term would help a lot.
Of course, there are issues. Exam marking and moderation springs to mind. When would it happen and who would do it? Couldn’t be teachers as we’d be teaching.
There are other questions though. Do we need school terms to be so long? Private schools have 10% fewer contact days and yet dominate exam results. Of course, they also have longer teaching days and very much smaller class sizes.
And ultimately, until the latter is properly embraced in state schools so we target 20 instead of 30 as the acceptable maximum - possibly paid for by abolishing the DfE, OFSTED and Ofqual, sacking all their staff and putting their money towards hiring extra teachers - all this is tinkering about the edges.
It’s fine for them to campaign against ‘bankers’ or ‘businessmen’, ignoring the fact that they actually mean everyone’s pension scheme - but when they campaign against Jews and tell the white people they’re all racists, funnily enough we end up with a Conservative government.
They need to be positive, as opposed to angry, with a vision that appeals to everyone.
Angela Rayner demands detailed answers on Boris Johnson’s refurb
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2021/may/29/angela-rayner-demands-detailed-answers-on-boris-johnsons-refurb
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VxNOynEJ6wc
Boris will always have his passionate supporters as Corbyn did his but there are more passionate Brexiteers than passionate Socialists in the UK so the Tories will always win that ideological argument.
To win a majority and get voters voting for them Labour needs a centrist leader and ideally a charismatic leader like Blair, otherwise they need a leader who will not scare centrist voters if the economy goes into recession and they are looking for an alternative, Starmer is not Corbyn or Kinnock even if he is no Blair either so he has that advantage if the economy goes downhill before 2024.
(I've long thought this, and have been wrong so far)
My word. This story is so shocking and extraordinary I’m actually struggling to get my head round it:
Canada mourns as remains of 215 children found at indigenous school
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-57291530
If this is borne out by further investigation, it will make that scandal uncovered in Ireland a decade ago look like a picnic.
Me:
Canada's dirty, unacknowledged secret. Brutal treatment of children taken from their parents in handcuffs.
Worse than Ireland. Not quite as bad as Oz, but they have, at least confronted it a little.
The vaccine effect becomes clearer and clearer. In a complete reverse of the earlier situation of the epidemic, we have cases rising among the younger groups, and admissions to match.
Of further interest is this
note the *increase* in deaths among 85-89, despite a general fall in other groups. This corresponds to the comments that "many" of the deaths are now among elderly, unvaccinated people.
What absolutely do know that barring a miracle Labour are likely to remain out if office until they can find someone to square the circle between the two sides of the party that are at war with each other and until they lose the anti semitic label attached to the party.
I think a few light years should sort it all out.
First, what happens to support for these statements if you attach Cummings or Starmer to them? Back in the 2000s, adding the Conservative label was enough to make popular policies unpopular.
Second, how long will the government be able to dine out on having done a good job on vaccination? At the moment, it's understandable that it squashes any potential criticism as effectively a hobnailed boot squashes a snail. But that won't work forever. Will it?
On my current family tree obsession; I've hit the mother lode!
I've found a direct line back to the Battle of Hastings, and beyond. Turns out I'm a descendant of Robert Bigod, William the Conqueror's chamberlain.
Since this leads me back into Norman nobility, it pretty much takes me everywhere. Including made up places.
According to work done by others I have blood links to the first Duke of Normandy, Kings and Queens of every medieval European country, lines back to Holy Roman Emperors and Roman Emprerors. And then even more fun with Uther Pendragon, Queen Viviene of Avallon (revered as Lady of the Lake and who it's claimed is descended from Mary Magdalene and JESUS ffs), to Kings of Greek states who claimed descendence from their Gods - I've found claimed blood links back to Zeus and Gaia..
I think my work there might be done.
The problem was we didn't use that breathing space, then too slow to lockdown (and didn't close the borders) and too slow to ramp up testing. We did the same at Christmas time, it was clear what needed to be done, and Boris waited a week too long.
The initial decision pushed by Witty and Valance to only test incoming hospital patients was madness.
For what it's worth nobody understands much of physics, but there's more than that in that there are certainly missing (and probably impossible to understand) pieces.
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1398679204556939265?s=19
Cannot of itself
Move
From a cold body to a hotter.
Labour can move further left, but that does not really help them build a winning Coalition.
Boris wants to make his mark as a famous PM like Churchill & so I am sure he will do whatever it takes to remain popular and win the next election, irrespective of ideology.
In fact, Boris is almost completely free of ideology. If we need to spend more money for Boris to get elected again, then we'll spend it.
Sure, there will ultimately be an electoral reckoning, but I don't think it will be in 2024.
In fact, I don't think Boris will be leading the Tories when the bill is presented. Some other luckless individual will be.
Boris will have done a runner.
The Starmer surge is on!