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With the Cummings Commons Committee starting at 0930 – the former advisor Tweets a pic of pre-lockdo

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 2021 in General
imageWith the Cummings Commons Committee starting at 0930 – the former advisor Tweets a pic of pre-lockdown Number 10 strategy white board – politicalbetting.com

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  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,799
    edited May 2021
    DC?

    I meant first, of course.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,799
    Am I stuck in some sort of virtual waiting room whilst everyone else has fun on the real version of this thread or is my paranoia just getting the better of me?
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,800
    edited May 2021
    I'm not sure what he's trying to prove except that the government was looking at all the options and that it wanted to avoid the health service collapsing?

    Isn't this an official secret btw or don't we care about that any more?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 19,568
    Popcorn on standby... GOI!
  • kjhkjh Posts: 8,304
    I wonder why looking at that white board makes me very nervous about Government brain storming and planning process generally. Eek.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,992
    GIN1138 said:

    Popcorn on standby... GOI!

    I'd save your popcorn. I genuinely doubt there is anything to see here.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 8,304
    Also all Govts seem to be able to waste so much money (I still can't see how they spent all that money on that press room), but they can only find a knackered whiteboard to plan the pandemic resolution.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,322
    I find Dominic's point very hard to follow.

    Existing pandemic response plans did not include a lockdown (this seems like Dom thinks no lockdown = "herd immunity"). Indeed, their baseline assumption - that community spread of a flu-like virus was inevitable - was arguably in opposition to this.

    He says that this is from 13 March 2020.

    This was about a week (but not more) after it should have been apparent from Italy's experience that an exponential rise in cases would occur in the UK sooner or later. So we can that the government was a little bit slow there. We can also see that from 14 March 2020 the government had effectively concluded that full lockdown was needed, but it did not implement this until 23 March 2020 (although it did 'pre-brief' this, with some effect).

    This is not revolutionary information. In fact it is not even surprising that the government was a bit slow to implement measures that went far beyond anything ever announced in a hundred years. Sadly, that delay cost lives, but it does not demonstrate a conspiracy.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,547
    DavidL said:

    kjh said:

    I wonder why looking at that white board makes me very nervous about Government brain storming and planning process generally. Eek.

    Whiteboards have never produced anything good in my experience. Banal, lowest common denominator dribble is the most they can aspire to and they generally fall short.
    That’s cos you are in law.
    In tech I’d say they are indispensable.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,992

    Maybe it's just me, but I reckon the most egregious mistakes made by government were in November/December 2020 (including Christmas), leading to the catastrophic death toll in January, rather than in February/March last year. The latter was more forgivable.

    But the whiteboard was wiped clean by Kate Bingham.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,687

    DavidL said:

    kjh said:

    I wonder why looking at that white board makes me very nervous about Government brain storming and planning process generally. Eek.

    Whiteboards have never produced anything good in my experience. Banal, lowest common denominator dribble is the most they can aspire to and they generally fall short.
    That’s cos you are in law.
    In tech I’d say they are indispensable.
    I was thinking this. We used whiteboards for everything in my previous engineering career.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 36,605

    Maybe it's just me, but I reckon the most egregious mistakes made by government were in November/December 2020 (including Christmas), leading to the catastrophic death toll in January, rather than in February/March last year. The latter was more forgivable.

    Earlier than that, June when we kept the borders open with no quarantine on arrival.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 23,986

    The only interesting thing on that whiteboard are the words, “Who do we not save?”

    Again, far too precise in their thinking in my opinion.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,927
    Batley & Spen
    6/4 Labour is still available from Ladbrokes and several of the smaller bookmakers on Oddschecker.

    Best prices are unchanged for days:-
    4/7 Conservative
    6/4 Labour
    100/1 bar
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,568
    That is not an unreasonable assumption on the vaccine at the time
  • FishingFishing Posts: 3,800
    edited May 2021

    The only interesting thing on that whiteboard are the words, “Who do we not save?”

    I think it would be worse if they weren't there.

    To govern is to choose, and to choose in health matters is usually to decide whom to save and whom to let die.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,992
    kjh said:

    Also all Govts seem to be able to waste so much money (I still can't see how they spent all that money on that press room), but they can only find a knackered whiteboard to plan the pandemic resolution.

    It is all about balancing want and need. A top quality whiteboard or gold curtains. Something had to give.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Sean_F said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    I've never done drugs, or fired a gun (excepting an air pistol and an air rifle).

    If you learn history then you'll encounter gay people and bi people and all other sorts. Slicing them off into a separate segment as if you can divide the gay Sacred Band from the bi Alexander and the straight(ish) Silver Shields is a bloody odd way to carve up a historical narrative.

    I remember Hadrian being described as “a member of the LGBT community” at the British Museum, something that would have bemused any elite Roman male. The essential distinction in Rome was not gay/straight but active/passive.
    It's what comes of being more interested in trying to shoehorn historical figures into modern narratives, rather than trying to appreciate them and their times for what they actually were.

    AFAIK the entire conception of hetero/homosexuality would've been quite alien to the classical Romans. Theirs was a culture very remote in time and conception from ours, which at the time of Hadrian was still not significantly influenced by Judaeo-Christian mores. I believe it was Suetonius who remarked upon the fact that Claudius only had sex with women and Galba with men, simply because both predilections were regarded as atypical at the time!

    Mind you, I've never much liked the entire concept of LGBT (or the more extended alphabet soup acronyms) either. If we're no longer meant to be talking about the "BAME community" anymore, then maybe the concept of "LGBT(QIA+) community" can be next for the chopping block? It's really not much of a thing outside of certain activist circles.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    The only interesting thing on that whiteboard are the words, “Who do we not save?”

    Dom Cummings?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,687

    Sean_F said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    I've never done drugs, or fired a gun (excepting an air pistol and an air rifle).

    If you learn history then you'll encounter gay people and bi people and all other sorts. Slicing them off into a separate segment as if you can divide the gay Sacred Band from the bi Alexander and the straight(ish) Silver Shields is a bloody odd way to carve up a historical narrative.

    I remember Hadrian being described as “a member of the LGBT community” at the British Museum, something that would have bemused any elite Roman male. The essential distinction in Rome was not gay/straight but active/passive.
    It's what comes of being more interested in trying to shoehorn historical figures into modern narratives, rather than trying to appreciate them and their times for what they actually were.

    AFAIK the entire conception of hetero/homosexuality would've been quite alien to the classical Romans. Theirs was a culture very remote in time and conception from ours, which at the time of Hadrian was still not significantly influenced by Judaeo-Christian mores. I believe it was Suetonius who remarked upon the fact that Claudius only had sex with women and Galba with men, simply because both predilections were regarded as atypical at the time!

    Mind you, I've never much liked the entire concept of LGBT (or the more extended alphabet soup acronyms) either. If we're no longer meant to be talking about the "BAME community" anymore, then maybe the concept of "LGBT(QIA+) community" can be next for the chopping block? It's really not much of a thing outside of certain activist circles.
    Yeah but if you're a kid who is confused and afraid about your sexuality, hearing that a well-known historical figure may have been the same as you is likely to be comforting.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 45,799

    DavidL said:

    kjh said:

    I wonder why looking at that white board makes me very nervous about Government brain storming and planning process generally. Eek.

    Whiteboards have never produced anything good in my experience. Banal, lowest common denominator dribble is the most they can aspire to and they generally fall short.
    That’s cos you are in law.
    In tech I’d say they are indispensable.
    Interesting. In law the idea that you can say anything meaningful in a brief phrase without qualifications is risible. In tech equations etc may mean that the board actually has something significant on it.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,853
    Taz said:

    That is not an unreasonable assumption on the vaccine at the time

    The number of people that had antibody protection via vaccine on the last day of 2020 was perhaps 1/2 a million. For all intents and purposes the working assumption, no vaccine in 2020 was entirely correct.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 18,992

    The only interesting thing on that whiteboard are the words, “Who do we not save?”

    Dom Cummings?
    Although lots and lots of goodwill was expended on saving Cummings last year.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Mr Barnard Castle doesn't look well to me.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,853
    What is the "RCW" referred to in point 2 ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Mistakes were made.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,687
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    kjh said:

    I wonder why looking at that white board makes me very nervous about Government brain storming and planning process generally. Eek.

    Whiteboards have never produced anything good in my experience. Banal, lowest common denominator dribble is the most they can aspire to and they generally fall short.
    That’s cos you are in law.
    In tech I’d say they are indispensable.
    Interesting. In law the idea that you can say anything meaningful in a brief phrase without qualifications is risible. In tech equations etc may mean that the board actually has something significant on it.
    We tended to use them for tracking projects, production line scheduling, 'roadblocks' — that kind of thing.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 17,547
    I’m not (currently) watching this.
    But fascinating historical irony that this testimony is almost one year to the day since the rose garden press conference.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,853
    Lockdown = |e|o stays home

    |e|o ??
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,687
    Pulpstar said:

    Lockdown = |e|o stays home

    |e|o ??

    'Everyone' perhaps?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Pulpstar said:

    Lockdown = |e|o stays home

    |e|o ??

    "expected or ordered to"??
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,927

    DavidL said:

    kjh said:

    I wonder why looking at that white board makes me very nervous about Government brain storming and planning process generally. Eek.

    Whiteboards have never produced anything good in my experience. Banal, lowest common denominator dribble is the most they can aspire to and they generally fall short.
    That’s cos you are in law.
    In tech I’d say they are indispensable.
    I was thinking this. We used whiteboards for everything in my previous engineering career.
    For WFH types, Magic Whiteboards (rolls of white plastic) are excellent.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,183
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    kjh said:

    I wonder why looking at that white board makes me very nervous about Government brain storming and planning process generally. Eek.

    Whiteboards have never produced anything good in my experience. Banal, lowest common denominator dribble is the most they can aspire to and they generally fall short.
    That’s cos you are in law.
    In tech I’d say they are indispensable.
    Interesting. In law the idea that you can say anything meaningful in a brief phrase without qualifications is risible. In tech equations etc may mean that the board actually has something significant on it.
    It's less about equations as it is about dependencies. This is related to that. This can't happen until after the other. It can be useful to show this visually.

    I would have thought you would have similar dependencies in the law.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    Beth Rigby
    @BethRigby
    ·
    1m
    Quite the opening statement, and looked like Cummings emotional as he delivered it: "The truth is that senior ministers, officials, advisers - like me, fell disastrously short of the standards the public has a right to expect of its government"Beth Rigby
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 2,822
    Pulpstar said:

    Lockdown = |e|o stays home

    |e|o ??

    Everyone.


    FPT - who do we NOT save:
    https://www.nice.org.uk/process/pmg6/chapter/assessing-cost-effectiveness

    Why would that be a surprising thing to ask?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,985

    Sean_F said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    I've never done drugs, or fired a gun (excepting an air pistol and an air rifle).

    If you learn history then you'll encounter gay people and bi people and all other sorts. Slicing them off into a separate segment as if you can divide the gay Sacred Band from the bi Alexander and the straight(ish) Silver Shields is a bloody odd way to carve up a historical narrative.

    I remember Hadrian being described as “a member of the LGBT community” at the British Museum, something that would have bemused any elite Roman male. The essential distinction in Rome was not gay/straight but active/passive.
    It's what comes of being more interested in trying to shoehorn historical figures into modern narratives, rather than trying to appreciate them and their times for what they actually were.

    AFAIK the entire conception of hetero/homosexuality would've been quite alien to the classical Romans. Theirs was a culture very remote in time and conception from ours, which at the time of Hadrian was still not significantly influenced by Judaeo-Christian mores. I believe it was Suetonius who remarked upon the fact that Claudius only had sex with women and Galba with men, simply because both predilections were regarded as atypical at the time!

    Mind you, I've never much liked the entire concept of LGBT (or the more extended alphabet soup acronyms) either. If we're no longer meant to be talking about the "BAME community" anymore, then maybe the concept of "LGBT(QIA+) community" can be next for the chopping block? It's really not much of a thing outside of certain activist circles.
    Yes, the issue isn't an objection to examining history "as it actually was" the issue is putting a political
    judgement on that history from a Left-modernist perspective, and then preaching those conclusions at people.

    Few would have a problem with unearthing new information and letting people take their own view on it.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,171
    edited May 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    Lockdown = |e|o stays home

    |e|o ??

    I like how even the government whiteboard's first thought on that is that means pubs must close.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,322

    Pulpstar said:

    Lockdown = |e|o stays home

    |e|o ??

    "expected or ordered to"??
    surely it's just "everyone"
  • Daveyboy1961Daveyboy1961 Posts: 2,923

    Pulpstar said:

    Lockdown = |e|o stays home

    |e|o ??

    "expected or ordered to"??
    every one?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,985

    Sean_F said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    I've never done drugs, or fired a gun (excepting an air pistol and an air rifle).

    If you learn history then you'll encounter gay people and bi people and all other sorts. Slicing them off into a separate segment as if you can divide the gay Sacred Band from the bi Alexander and the straight(ish) Silver Shields is a bloody odd way to carve up a historical narrative.

    I remember Hadrian being described as “a member of the LGBT community” at the British Museum, something that would have bemused any elite Roman male. The essential distinction in Rome was not gay/straight but active/passive.
    Mind you, I've never much liked the entire concept of LGBT (or the more extended alphabet soup acronyms) either. If we're no longer meant to be talking about the "BAME community" anymore, then maybe the concept of "LGBT(QIA+) community" can be next for the chopping block? It's really not much of a thing outside of certain activist circles.
    PS. It's Pride month next week, so prepare yourself for 4 full-on weeks (at least) of that.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,927
    The woman sitting behind Cummings is in danger of losing her mask but is anyone else wearing one?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,603

    Maybe it's just me, but I reckon the most egregious mistakes made by government were in November/December 2020 (including Christmas), leading to the catastrophic death toll in January, rather than in February/March last year. The latter was more forgivable.

    Yes, the whole pre-Christmas period, with the ridiculous unlocking for shopping, the failed-at-the-last-minute attempt to save Christmas, and the single day back at primary school in early January, was a fiasco.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,687
    edited May 2021
    Dom Cummings has an odd accent — posh English with the odd bit of North East twang creeping in.
  • TimSTimS Posts: 3,623
    This is really looking like a damp squib isn't it? I mean the whiteboard: hardly sensational. People in power workshopping approach to an emerging crisis. It's what we'd expect them to do.
  • TazTaz Posts: 6,568

    Mistakes were made.

    Thing is every govt has made mistakes, everyone and Taiwan, which he mentioned, is having a tough time of it now.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,927
    edited May 2021
    Deleted.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,446
    Popcorn overload for the media....
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Sean_F said:

    Good morning, everyone.

    I've never done drugs, or fired a gun (excepting an air pistol and an air rifle).

    If you learn history then you'll encounter gay people and bi people and all other sorts. Slicing them off into a separate segment as if you can divide the gay Sacred Band from the bi Alexander and the straight(ish) Silver Shields is a bloody odd way to carve up a historical narrative.

    I remember Hadrian being described as “a member of the LGBT community” at the British Museum, something that would have bemused any elite Roman male. The essential distinction in Rome was not gay/straight but active/passive.
    Mind you, I've never much liked the entire concept of LGBT (or the more extended alphabet soup acronyms) either. If we're no longer meant to be talking about the "BAME community" anymore, then maybe the concept of "LGBT(QIA+) community" can be next for the chopping block? It's really not much of a thing outside of certain activist circles.
    PS. It's Pride month next week, so prepare yourself for 4 full-on weeks (at least) of that.
    Oh that's OK. I don't find alphabetsoupism particularly offensive, merely nebulous and inaccurate.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,279
    IanB2 said:

    Maybe it's just me, but I reckon the most egregious mistakes made by government were in November/December 2020 (including Christmas), leading to the catastrophic death toll in January, rather than in February/March last year. The latter was more forgivable.

    Yes, the whole pre-Christmas period, with the ridiculous unlocking for shopping, the failed-at-the-last-minute attempt to save Christmas, and the single day back at primary school in early January, was a fiasco.
    After Cummins was sacked. Just saying!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 42,433
    DavidL said:

    Am I stuck in some sort of virtual waiting room whilst everyone else has fun on the real version of this thread or is my paranoia just getting the better of me?

    Ha, someone’s been spending too much time with Teams and WebEx. ;)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 31,942
    Pulpstar said:

    Taz said:

    That is not an unreasonable assumption on the vaccine at the time

    The number of people that had antibody protection via vaccine on the last day of 2020 was perhaps 1/2 a million. For all intents and purposes the working assumption, no vaccine in 2020 was entirely correct.
    It was my understanding that by any previous experience, a vaccine being ready to use in 2020 was something close to ridiculous.

    What happened was the war-time-development* effect on process and systems - enough pressure was applied to reduce actions in the vaccine creation process to what *needed* to be done, rather than "but, traditionally..."

    *In operational research, this effect is well known and rather interesting.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103

    Pulpstar said:

    Lockdown = |e|o stays home

    |e|o ??

    "expected or ordered to"??
    every one?
    quite possibly. But I'm sure at some point they must have debated ordering and making a legal requirement against a more advice/guidance approach?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 31,942
    Pulpstar said:

    Lockdown = |e|o stays home

    |e|o ??

    "Everyone" ?
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,171
    TimS said:

    This is really looking like a damp squib isn't it? I mean the whiteboard: hardly sensational. People in power workshopping approach to an emerging crisis. It's what we'd expect them to do.

    They might as well subtitle all the committees and investigations with the phrase "With The Benefit Of Hindsight".

    Yes mistakes were undoubtedly made, but ultimately there was never any "perfect" way through. Just muddling through as best we all can balancing difficult decisions which have complex mixes of upsides and downsides. Which is essentially politics in general.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 55,345
    edited May 2021
    Cummings trashing Cobra meetings saying they were leaking

    Cummings did not go to Cobra nor advised Boris to go either
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,183
    I wasn't expecting an apology from Cummings.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 31,942
    edited May 2021
    kjh said:

    Also all Govts seem to be able to waste so much money (I still can't see how they spent all that money on that press room), but they can only find a knackered whiteboard to plan the pandemic resolution.

    There is a blog by Mr Cummings, while not in government, in which he pointed out that Cabinet Room is less functional than at the time of the First World War.

    The fireplace has been blocked up. Which makes disposing of confidential waste harder.

    EDIT: There is a semi-apocryphal story that the operations centres for the US military received massive upgrades in the wake of the film War Games. The politicians who went on tours were appalled/startled by how low tech they were, compared to the film.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,955

    Dom Cummings has an odd accent — posh English with the odd bit of North East twang creeping in.

    Presumably his parents sent him to a posh school to prevent him sounding like a proper Geordie, so job done from their point of view.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,687
    edited May 2021
    DoCu really is the buzzword king isn't he?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,446

    DoCu really is the buzzword king isn't he?

    I would never have guessed.....
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578

    I wasn't expecting an apology from Cummings.

    I think Dom is thinking "where can I make the most money from this". He's got no chance of getting back at the heart of Government (forget all the stuff about Gove becoming PM) so he will have to do a book deal. Criticising Boris will endear him to the Guardian and make some publisher pony up some cash for his memoirs.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 72,853
    The 'seal off the vulnerable and let it rip through the rest of the population plan'.

    In theory it could work BUT

    i) You need to identify who is vulnerable - it's broadly correlated with age and comorbifity but you'll get some outliers who it kills outside those groups.
    ii) You need a hard cutoff if you're assuming differential action between the groups. Someone just below the shielding cut-off may have a minutely differing risk to someone above but their prescribed course of action will be completely different.
    iii) People above the cutoff may well have interaction, even through no fault of their own with those below. e.g. Old people need to head into hospital for things other than Covid. People in the more vulnerable group will not hermetically seal themselves off forever.
    iv) Even if everyone followed it 100% you'd get a certain level of mortality in the lesser vulnerable group.
    v) Spread through the lesser vulnerable group might lead to more transmissible mutations. This means ultimately your lesser vulnerable group isn't large enough so you need to release people from the more vulnerable group to achieve herd immunity.
    vii) People in the spread group may well try and err... avoid the virus by lessening their contact levels.
    viii) The temptation/pressure to lock everyone down as the bodies hit the floor rack up will be immense.

    So you'd need perfectly defined groups; perfect spread behaviour amongst the spread group, perfect shielding behaviour amongst the shielding group, a big appetite for death...
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,927

    The woman sitting behind Cummings is in danger of losing her mask but is anyone else wearing one?

    She has removed her mask.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 55,103
    LOL.


    "I'm not smart"

    "I'm not technical. I don't understand the models"

    Jeez christ.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,183

    Pulpstar said:

    Taz said:

    That is not an unreasonable assumption on the vaccine at the time

    The number of people that had antibody protection via vaccine on the last day of 2020 was perhaps 1/2 a million. For all intents and purposes the working assumption, no vaccine in 2020 was entirely correct.
    It was my understanding that by any previous experience, a vaccine being ready to use in 2020 was something close to ridiculous.

    What happened was the war-time-development* effect on process and systems - enough pressure was applied to reduce actions in the vaccine creation process to what *needed* to be done, rather than "but, traditionally..."

    *In operational research, this effect is well known and rather interesting.
    One of the most interesting questions for the next time from the long Cummings Twitter thread is whether we could reduce the time required to prove and approve a vaccine even further by using human challenge trials.

    If we'd been able to start vaccinating people in September, or even earlier, that would have made a huge difference
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,687
    I feel DoCu is using this as a public pitch for future work.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 48,985
    What's this warm yellow ball doing in the sky?

    Weird.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,955

    Biggest surprise so far: Dom says he wasn't the smartest one in the room.

    That is probably true but I bet he doesn't actually believe it.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 31,942

    LOL.


    "I'm not smart"

    "I'm not technical. I don't understand the models"

    Jeez christ.

    So he is ahead of the media and quite a few scientists. If he actually believes that.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,446
    Pulpstar said:

    The 'seal off the vulnerable and let it rip through the rest of the population plan'.

    In theory it could work BUT

    i) You need to identify who is vulnerable - it's broadly correlated with age and comorbifity but you'll get some outliers who it kills outside those groups.
    ii) You need a hard cutoff if you're assuming differential action between the groups. Someone just below the shielding cut-off may have a minutely differing risk to someone above but their prescribed course of action will be completely different.
    iii) People above the cutoff may well have interaction, even through no fault of their own with those below. e.g. Old people need to head into hospital for things other than Covid. People in the more vulnerable group will not hermetically seal themselves off forever.
    iv) Even if everyone followed it 100% you'd get a certain level of mortality in the lesser vulnerable group.
    v) Spread through the lesser vulnerable group might lead to more transmissible mutations. This means ultimately your lesser vulnerable group isn't large enough so you need to release people from the more vulnerable group to achieve herd immunity.
    vii) People in the spread group may well try and err... avoid the virus by lessening their contact levels.
    viii) The temptation/pressure to lock everyone down as the bodies hit the floor rack up will be immense.

    So you'd need perfectly defined groups; perfect spread behaviour amongst the spread group, perfect shielding behaviour amongst the shielding group, a big appetite for death...

    I think again it comes down to the infamous first academic paper that said vast majority will only suffer mild symptoms...which the author meant not need hospital treatment, not as was taken by many to mean everybody under 80 will just have a bad cold.

    It set the tone as a disease that only oldies were in danger.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,171

    What's this warm yellow ball doing in the sky?

    Weird.

    Sounds ominous.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 31,942

    Pulpstar said:

    Taz said:

    That is not an unreasonable assumption on the vaccine at the time

    The number of people that had antibody protection via vaccine on the last day of 2020 was perhaps 1/2 a million. For all intents and purposes the working assumption, no vaccine in 2020 was entirely correct.
    It was my understanding that by any previous experience, a vaccine being ready to use in 2020 was something close to ridiculous.

    What happened was the war-time-development* effect on process and systems - enough pressure was applied to reduce actions in the vaccine creation process to what *needed* to be done, rather than "but, traditionally..."

    *In operational research, this effect is well known and rather interesting.
    One of the most interesting questions for the next time from the long Cummings Twitter thread is whether we could reduce the time required to prove and approve a vaccine even further by using human challenge trials.

    If we'd been able to start vaccinating people in September, or even earlier, that would have made a huge difference
    The big question is whether the mRNA technology can be used to tweak the vaccine, without requiring a full re-trial, IIRC
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    I feel DoCu is using this as a public pitch for future work.

    Burning his bridges with the streams of consciousness recently has probably destroyed any chance of that with any serious politician.

    Other than Gove who would trust him now?
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,507
    Pulpstar said:

    The 'seal off the vulnerable and let it rip through the rest of the population plan'.

    In theory it could work BUT

    i) You need to identify who is vulnerable - it's broadly correlated with age and comorbifity but you'll get some outliers who it kills outside those groups.
    ii) You need a hard cutoff if you're assuming differential action between the groups. Someone just below the shielding cut-off may have a minutely differing risk to someone above but their prescribed course of action will be completely different.
    iii) People above the cutoff may well have interaction, even through no fault of their own with those below. e.g. Old people need to head into hospital for things other than Covid. People in the more vulnerable group will not hermetically seal themselves off forever.
    iv) Even if everyone followed it 100% you'd get a certain level of mortality in the lesser vulnerable group.
    v) Spread through the lesser vulnerable group might lead to more transmissible mutations. This means ultimately your lesser vulnerable group isn't large enough so you need to release people from the more vulnerable group to achieve herd immunity.
    vii) People in the spread group may well try and err... avoid the virus by lessening their contact levels.
    viii) The temptation/pressure to lock everyone down as the bodies hit the floor rack up will be immense.

    So you'd need perfectly defined groups; perfect spread behaviour amongst the spread group, perfect shielding behaviour amongst the shielding group, a big appetite for death...

    And if we defined the vulnerable as Groups 1-9 of the JCVI charts, we're talking literally half of the population of the UK, anyway. Which makes it even harder.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 11,183
    Pulpstar said:

    The 'seal off the vulnerable and let it rip through the rest of the population plan'.

    In theory it could work BUT

    i) You need to identify who is vulnerable - it's broadly correlated with age and comorbifity but you'll get some outliers who it kills outside those groups.
    ii) You need a hard cutoff if you're assuming differential action between the groups. Someone just below the shielding cut-off may have a minutely differing risk to someone above but their prescribed course of action will be completely different.
    iii) People above the cutoff may well have interaction, even through no fault of their own with those below. e.g. Old people need to head into hospital for things other than Covid. People in the more vulnerable group will not hermetically seal themselves off forever.
    iv) Even if everyone followed it 100% you'd get a certain level of mortality in the lesser vulnerable group.
    v) Spread through the lesser vulnerable group might lead to more transmissible mutations. This means ultimately your lesser vulnerable group isn't large enough so you need to release people from the more vulnerable group to achieve herd immunity.
    vii) People in the spread group may well try and err... avoid the virus by lessening their contact levels.
    viii) The temptation/pressure to lock everyone down as the bodies hit the floor rack up will be immense.

    So you'd need perfectly defined groups; perfect spread behaviour amongst the spread group, perfect shielding behaviour amongst the shielding group, a big appetite for death...

    It doesn't work mathematically. As soon as you increase the size of the circulating population by releasing people from the shielding group you don't have herd immunity anymore. The virus spreads again.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 16,258

    I feel DoCu is using this as a public pitch for future work.

    Is there much of a job market for a dysfunctional, dishonest egomaniac with bad eyesight and hand writing?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 18,687
    edited May 2021

    I feel DoCu is using this as a public pitch for future work.

    Burning his bridges with the streams of consciousness recently has probably destroyed any chance of that with any serious politician.

    Other than Gove who would trust him now?
    The private sector?

    Keir? :D
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,446

    What's this warm yellow ball doing in the sky?

    Weird.

    Run..........
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,493

    What's this warm yellow ball doing in the sky?

    Weird.

    Don't get UFO spotters excited....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,446

    Pulpstar said:

    Taz said:

    That is not an unreasonable assumption on the vaccine at the time

    The number of people that had antibody protection via vaccine on the last day of 2020 was perhaps 1/2 a million. For all intents and purposes the working assumption, no vaccine in 2020 was entirely correct.
    It was my understanding that by any previous experience, a vaccine being ready to use in 2020 was something close to ridiculous.

    What happened was the war-time-development* effect on process and systems - enough pressure was applied to reduce actions in the vaccine creation process to what *needed* to be done, rather than "but, traditionally..."

    *In operational research, this effect is well known and rather interesting.
    One of the most interesting questions for the next time from the long Cummings Twitter thread is whether we could reduce the time required to prove and approve a vaccine even further by using human challenge trials.

    If we'd been able to start vaccinating people in September, or even earlier, that would have made a huge difference
    The big question is whether the mRNA technology can be used to tweak the vaccine, without requiring a full re-trial, IIRC
    I thought the government have already said yes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,603
    Presumably if there is a question designed to bring the killer information onto the table, Hunt will be the one who has (been given) it.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 10,955

    I feel DoCu is using this as a public pitch for future work.

    Burning his bridges with the streams of consciousness recently has probably destroyed any chance of that with any serious politician.

    Other than Gove who would trust him now?
    The private sector?

    Keir? :D
    He has extensive contacts in the world of finance and is probably already on somebody's payroll.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 15,467

    What's this warm yellow ball doing in the sky?

    Weird.

    Thoughts and prayers with @Leon - what’s he going to do with himself now he can no longer whine endlessly about the weather?

    theweatherincamdentown.com
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 4,507

    Pulpstar said:

    The 'seal off the vulnerable and let it rip through the rest of the population plan'.

    In theory it could work BUT

    i) You need to identify who is vulnerable - it's broadly correlated with age and comorbifity but you'll get some outliers who it kills outside those groups.
    ii) You need a hard cutoff if you're assuming differential action between the groups. Someone just below the shielding cut-off may have a minutely differing risk to someone above but their prescribed course of action will be completely different.
    iii) People above the cutoff may well have interaction, even through no fault of their own with those below. e.g. Old people need to head into hospital for things other than Covid. People in the more vulnerable group will not hermetically seal themselves off forever.
    iv) Even if everyone followed it 100% you'd get a certain level of mortality in the lesser vulnerable group.
    v) Spread through the lesser vulnerable group might lead to more transmissible mutations. This means ultimately your lesser vulnerable group isn't large enough so you need to release people from the more vulnerable group to achieve herd immunity.
    vii) People in the spread group may well try and err... avoid the virus by lessening their contact levels.
    viii) The temptation/pressure to lock everyone down as the bodies hit the floor rack up will be immense.

    So you'd need perfectly defined groups; perfect spread behaviour amongst the spread group, perfect shielding behaviour amongst the shielding group, a big appetite for death...

    It doesn't work mathematically. As soon as you increase the size of the circulating population by releasing people from the shielding group you don't have herd immunity anymore. The virus spreads again.
    It's really just a straw to cling to to support the hope that "this isn't happening/it's not really bad/I don't want to be severely impacted/can it just go away?"

    Which is a very natural human impulse, but not so good for making life or death decisions.
    For policy-makers or pilots alike.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,603

    What's this warm yellow ball doing in the sky?

    Weird.

    Someone has taken the lid off of our tupperware box
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 43,603

    What's this warm yellow ball doing in the sky?

    Weird.

    Thoughts and prayers with @Leon - what’s he going to do with himself now he can no longer whine endlessly about the weather?

    theweatherincamdentown.com
    Go back to predicting things after the event, perhaps.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 29,279

    I feel DoCu is using this as a public pitch for future work.

    Burning his bridges with the streams of consciousness recently has probably destroyed any chance of that with any serious politician.

    Other than Gove who would trust him now?
    And vice versa?
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 17,927
    edited May 2021
    Lab leak theory gets an airing. PB (well, @Leon mainly) leads the way!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 73,446

    What's this warm yellow ball doing in the sky?

    Weird.

    Thoughts and prayers with @Leon - what’s he going to do with himself now he can no longer whine endlessly about the weather?

    theweatherincamdentown.com
    I thought he was banging on about property prices in deprived areas of London... the other night i thought i had accidentally logged onto Foxtons.
This discussion has been closed.