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In the next election betting it’s now odds-on that the Tories will get a majority – politicalbetting

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  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,479

    Sandpit said:

    Death Rigby banging on about confusion and mixed messages....yawn.

    Just because *she* gets easily confused...
    No because Beth is right This is huge weakness that partisan PB Tories struggle to accept.
    I guess as always we can look at the one country Labour control.

    Wales.

    Drakeford has asked people in Wales not to go on holiday abroad in 2021, even though -- according to his Government -- they are allowed to.

    Drakeford added that he did not want to "make people feel guilty" about going abroad, but urged people to "think of their own safety and the safety of others".

    All crystal clear from Llafur in Wales -- no mixed messages there 😉

    Everything is allowed except it is also forbidden.
    As the Senedd elections showed the Welsh will do whatever Drakeford tells them to do because he is magnificent, they know divine brilliance when they see it.

    Keep reading my posts on Wales as you might learn something about Wales and her people.
    Maybe try living here
    If I didn't have any family commitments then I would.
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    Well that's it. All exams done. I think I'll open a few tinnys now!

    Congrats. But be sure, there will be more exams at some future point in your life. Enjoy the feeling while it lasts.
  • Options
    StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 14,475
    Cookie said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Cookie said:

    algarkirk said:

    Charles said:

    HYUFD said:

    Phil Thompson's vision of the future really is quite chilling - England as a high-density housing estate where everyone has to live on imported frozen kangaroo burgers.

    England already is a high density housing estate.

    Just some people want nice spacious detached homes surrounded by countryside while the plebs are piled high in tower blocks in the city even if they can afford to buy land in elsewhere.
    It is not an unreasonable aspiration to own a nice home.
    Agreed.

    So why do NIMBYs wish to deny that aspiration to others?
    Its when green belt is taken that problems arise. There is any amount of brownfield sites to be developed. The requisite infrastructure promised by developers surgery etc schools etc rarely happens so the existing infrastructure is overwhelmed.
    There aren't any number of brownfield sites. That's the problem.

    Population has increased by a sixth in recent years but housing hasn't and there aren't brownfield sites to cover the gap. Because whatever was on a brownfield site has a tendency to be replaced.

    If more infrastructure is needed then construct that too. On greenfield too.

    And if you don't want fields being developed then what is stopping you from buying the fields then refusing permission to build on them? Since you own them, you decide.
    Why has population increased when the UK birthrate is only 1.68 ie below replacement level? Immigration.

    So if the government reduce immigration via the new points system then the demand for new housing should fall too anyway
    The biggest impact is smaller household units - divorces, delays in partnering up, children moving out sooner etc
    If a population lives in 40 million houses and the occupancy changed from 2.1 to 2.0 you need nearly a million more houses for a reason which is invisible to the naked eye.

    And as you need most of them where pressure is already high and the NIMBYs most active it is a political and practical problem.

    Yes, lots of us have, over the past 30 years, vastly increased the amount of square footage of house we occupy - largely through the process described above. A family of four who bought their house in the 90s and lived in it perfectly happily is now a retired couple of two, living in the same house, plus two children each living in a small two bed flat. This process has happened over and over and over again. The result has been that those least able to afford a house are now sleeping on their Mum's sofa in her one bed flat.

    This has been the result of nothing more malign than demographic change.

    I was manning a consultation relating to a large greenfield housing development a couple of years back. Lots and lots and lots of people angry that their bit of countryside was going to be built on and that their roads would be busier. In amongst which, a cleaner at the community centre came to have a look. "Please," she said to me under her breath, "just build them. I don't care what they look like. I don't care about newts. I've got two grown up sons living in my living room because they can't get a house. Just build them."
    But, I suspect she didn't fill in the response form, while the middle-class* hordes who lived adjacent to the green belt in question did.

    *I don't use this pejoratively. I'm middle classs. It's a good thing to be. But we need to recognise that our views aren't necessarily those of everyone.
    This is an incredibly insightful post, and also demonstrates one of the massive problems of stamp duty: it's a frickin' tax on trading down.

    The tax system should encourage the efficient allocation of resources. Stamp duty does the opposite.
    Well that's very kind of you to say, but for the first half at least I am merely recycling the insight of someone I work with. Though of all the people I have worked with his is the brain I respect most on the subject.
    Interestingly though your conclusion is also his; we need better mechanisms - including the ones you and, I think, @ping on the previous thread, suggest for enabling and encouraging trading down.
    Tax reform is part of the solution, but probably a fairly minor one.

    Consider the people we are thinking about. Empty nesters; I imagine that they're in their late 50's, mortgage basically paid off, still working. Maybe winding down workwise, but because they can, rather than because they aren't coping physically or mentally. Financially, they're probably very comfortably off- they're not paying for children and their mortgage payments are low to zero.

    They have a family house that they don't really need. But after a decade or two, they've got it just right, it's full of their stuff and they entertain fantasies that their children will get round to providing grandchildren who will come to visit regularly.

    Downsizing in that context is a heck of an emotional wrench. And whilst tax incentives can incentivise anything, the target audience will need an awfully big bribe to be incentivised.

    Consider this, empty nesters on this site. Did you downsize when your children left home? Was the reason you didn't to do with stamp duty? Younger people- did your parents downsize when you left the family nest? Would you?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,479
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Spurs fans killing Harry with kindness. If it was Arsenal, they'd be burning an effigy of him!

    Of course Arsenal fans would be burning an effigy of Harry Kane because he's an Arsenal fan and betrayal hurts more when it is one of your own.

    https://twitter.com/brfootball/status/553477207243636738
    Love the 2000-02 shirt.
    I always liked that special kit you wore during the last season at Highbury.

    I kinda liked it when the RFU released an England alternate shirt that looked exactly like that.
    I didn't. I was bought the 04-05 shirt (I have AT THE LANE 04 on the back of it) as a Christmas present. Only lasted another few months (I know shirts only last one season these days, which I think the PL should put a stop to).

    And it's now known that the shirt from the first season at Highbury was red not that maroon we wore.
    Oh that's a disappointment.
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I'm certain that the media's behaviour over the last year has helped the Tories a lot.

    It is their acalculia that winds me up no end.

    How do these people with no numeracy or statistical ability survive in life?

    Edit - It was around last May when they seemed shocked that as tests ramped up confirmed positive tests would also go up.
    It's only when you leave school and start working that you realise how many allegedly intelligent people are innumerate.
    New word for me, acalculia. Like it. Now Gerstmann's Syndrome - that's an odd one.
  • Options
    Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,307
    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    moonshine said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    I observed something I couldn't account for yesterday, when my computer crashed. It could have been alien technology, but I think there are simpler explanations.

    Idiotic comparison. You may not know why it crashed. but a suitably skilled person could trace through the memory dump generated when your computer crashed and figure out why it happened.

    Nobody appears to know what the heck is going on with these UAPs, and their behaviour appears to suggest our understanding of physics is much more limited than we thought.
    That the UAPs aren't doing what people think they are, and it's faked video, an optical illusion or similar, is far more plausible than that the laws of physics aren't being obeyed.
    Not that there’s any point trying to persuade you but the ultra performance is explainable within the bounds of our physics even if requires magic from an engineering perspective.

    It would require a gravity well to be formed around the craft, bending spacetime. While moving at speeds closer to light requires ever more inordinate and unrealistic amounts of energy the closer you get to c, there’s actually nothing in our understanding of physics that says that spacetime cannot expand faster than light. In fact we think in many places it is doing so.

    This would explain several features, notably the transmedium performance, the lack of obvious propulsion means, the acceleration capabilities without causing sonic booms or combustion of atmospheric N2. And the strange visual blurring reported by military eye witnesses, that might also explain why the photos are never crystal clear. It would also presumably mean the time dilation effects from very fast speeds would not occur.

    This is without delving into our physics being utterly incomplete. The lack of compatibility between the Standard Model of QM and Relativity, even though both have excellent empirical support. Matter making up only 5% of the gravitational effects we can measure, with 27% dark matter and dark energy the rest. What is dark matter and where is it? We dunno. What is dark energy? We know less about that than dark matter.

    No doubt Philip Thompson can explain it all and hence tell us why the US defense and intelligence establishment is totally wrong with what now appears to be its leading hypothesis for these phenomena.
    Wait, what?
    Creating a gravity well and twisting space-time wouldn't avoid interactions with the medium.
    It would, though, have all sorts of repercussions. Colossal gravity waves, for a start, and we do have sensors for that. A gravity well like that would have big repercussions in all sorts of areas, from distorting orbits overhead through to ripping items off the ground and massive* issues caused in weather**
    It wouldn't avoid N2 combustion, or sonic booms (the air is still there and still has to go somewhere)

    * Pun intended
    ** Hey, @Leon - we've got a weather link for you!
    "the air is still there and still has to go somewhere"

    Is the absolute crucial part for me.

    Now, high altitude stuff on the edge of space is much more plausible because there's less air there.

    And here's the other thing: if you can avoid having your spaceship "interfering" with other matter (or to put it another way, using the same physical space without affecting it), then why can't these spaceships simply fly through the ground? Because that's matter too.

    Plus, if you're not interacting with matter around you, why is light bouncing off you?

    You don't need to be a genius to realise that videos like the Utah one are massively more likely to be done in After Effects than to be evidence of aliens on earth.

    (And it shouldn't surprise us that these videos are popping up at about the same time that it becomes easy for people at home to make videos like this.)
    Put the lack of sonic boom in the very big bucket labelled “physics we don’t understand” then. I’m not the one saying it. It’s the last Director of National Intelligence saying it. And the ex head of the programme appointed by Congress to investigate these military interactions.

    As Leon has tried to point out, you are all missing the story spectacularly. Don’t try and debunk a given video on YouTube. Explain what the f*** has happened to the public discourse on this in a matter of mere months, led by a string of senior and respectable figures who receive (or received) classified security briefings.
    "Don’t try and debunk a given video on YouTube. Explain what the f*** has happened to the public discourse on this in a matter of mere months"

    So. You're saying that because there are lots of news stories about something, that something must be happening more frequently?

    Do you really want to go there?
    Are we seeing a repetition of the Crying-Boy-Picture-and-House-Fires phenomenon?

    https://verityholloway.com/?p=6154
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,479
    TimT said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    I'm certain that the media's behaviour over the last year has helped the Tories a lot.

    It is their acalculia that winds me up no end.

    How do these people with no numeracy or statistical ability survive in life?

    Edit - It was around last May when they seemed shocked that as tests ramped up confirmed positive tests would also go up.
    It's only when you leave school and start working that you realise how many allegedly intelligent people are innumerate.
    New word for me, acalculia. Like it. Now Gerstmann's Syndrome - that's an odd one.
    It is a wonderful word, I loved it the first I heard it.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,267
    edited May 2021
    @DavidL

    I apologise for suggesting Yousaf might go to Education.

    I see he has in fact gone to Health, which is if anything somewhat worse.

    It may be a cunning plan to ensure that all Scots die before the age of ten all so there is no argument a Scottish generation lasts about eight years.

    Or it may just be that Sturgeon is the only person in the universe who doesn’t see him for the total arse he is.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,631
    A warning for crypto enthusiasts...

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crash-coinbase-cryptocurrency-exchanges-51621437348
    ... Trading crypto isn’t anything like stocks. Liquidity is relatively thin, and there are big spreads between the bid and ask prices. Commissions are steep. And as this morning’s outages indicate, the exchanges may not be equipped to handle a surge in volatility and sell orders—preventing investors from getting their money out fast.

    Bitcoin has been in a selloff for months and the downturn may be only be accelerating. The latest bad tidings came from China, which reiterated a ban on cryptocurrencies for domestic financial transactions. India also plans to ban cryptocurrencies and fine anyone trading or holding digital assets, according to a report in Reuters...
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    Nigelb said:

    A warning for crypto enthusiasts...

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crash-coinbase-cryptocurrency-exchanges-51621437348
    ... Trading crypto isn’t anything like stocks. Liquidity is relatively thin, and there are big spreads between the bid and ask prices. Commissions are steep. And as this morning’s outages indicate, the exchanges may not be equipped to handle a surge in volatility and sell orders—preventing investors from getting their money out fast.

    Bitcoin has been in a selloff for months and the downturn may be only be accelerating. The latest bad tidings came from China, which reiterated a ban on cryptocurrencies for domestic financial transactions. India also plans to ban cryptocurrencies and fine anyone trading or holding digital assets, according to a report in Reuters...

    There will be plenty of liquidity when the aliens start buying crypto
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,479
    Nigelb said:

    A warning for crypto enthusiasts...

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crash-coinbase-cryptocurrency-exchanges-51621437348
    ... Trading crypto isn’t anything like stocks. Liquidity is relatively thin, and there are big spreads between the bid and ask prices. Commissions are steep. And as this morning’s outages indicate, the exchanges may not be equipped to handle a surge in volatility and sell orders—preventing investors from getting their money out fast.

    Bitcoin has been in a selloff for months and the downturn may be only be accelerating. The latest bad tidings came from China, which reiterated a ban on cryptocurrencies for domestic financial transactions. India also plans to ban cryptocurrencies and fine anyone trading or holding digital assets, according to a report in Reuters...

    Believe it or not, I've been discussing vaginas as NFTs today.

    Cara Delevingne's vagina to be precise.

    Cara Delevingne is auctioning off an NFT artwork about her vagina to raise money for women’s rights and fighting the climate crisis.

    https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2021/05/18/cara-delevingne-nft-vagina-chemical-x/
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,479
    I have to say my job is very varied these days focussing on Scottish Independence and vaginas.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    I have to say my job is very varied these days focussing on Scottish Independence and vaginas.

    Never a dull day.....
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,479
    edited May 2021

    I have to say my job is very varied these days focussing on Scottish Independence and vaginas.

    Never a dull day.....
    An ex colleague spent ages on a case involving horse semen.

    I think she wrote the word ejaculation about 200 times in one report.

    It was serious stuff, about 100 ml could go for £50,000 a decade ago.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,267

    I have to say my job is very varied these days focussing on Scottish Independence and vaginas.

    I’m intrigued. Why the focus on Scottish vaginas?
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226
    tlg86 said:

    I'm certain that the media's behaviour over the last year has helped the Tories a lot.

    The media always helps the Tories.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,313
    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    moonshine said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    I observed something I couldn't account for yesterday, when my computer crashed. It could have been alien technology, but I think there are simpler explanations.

    Idiotic comparison. You may not know why it crashed. but a suitably skilled person could trace through the memory dump generated when your computer crashed and figure out why it happened.

    Nobody appears to know what the heck is going on with these UAPs, and their behaviour appears to suggest our understanding of physics is much more limited than we thought.
    That the UAPs aren't doing what people think they are, and it's faked video, an optical illusion or similar, is far more plausible than that the laws of physics aren't being obeyed.
    Not that there’s any point trying to persuade you but the ultra performance is explainable within the bounds of our physics even if requires magic from an engineering perspective.

    It would require a gravity well to be formed around the craft, bending spacetime. While moving at speeds closer to light requires ever more inordinate and unrealistic amounts of energy the closer you get to c, there’s actually nothing in our understanding of physics that says that spacetime cannot expand faster than light. In fact we think in many places it is doing so.

    This would explain several features, notably the transmedium performance, the lack of obvious propulsion means, the acceleration capabilities without causing sonic booms or combustion of atmospheric N2. And the strange visual blurring reported by military eye witnesses, that might also explain why the photos are never crystal clear. It would also presumably mean the time dilation effects from very fast speeds would not occur.

    This is without delving into our physics being utterly incomplete. The lack of compatibility between the Standard Model of QM and Relativity, even though both have excellent empirical support. Matter making up only 5% of the gravitational effects we can measure, with 27% dark matter and dark energy the rest. What is dark matter and where is it? We dunno. What is dark energy? We know less about that than dark matter.

    No doubt Philip Thompson can explain it all and hence tell us why the US defense and intelligence establishment is totally wrong with what now appears to be its leading hypothesis for these phenomena.
    Wait, what?
    Creating a gravity well and twisting space-time wouldn't avoid interactions with the medium.
    It would, though, have all sorts of repercussions. Colossal gravity waves, for a start, and we do have sensors for that. A gravity well like that would have big repercussions in all sorts of areas, from distorting orbits overhead through to ripping items off the ground and massive* issues caused in weather**
    It wouldn't avoid N2 combustion, or sonic booms (the air is still there and still has to go somewhere)

    * Pun intended
    ** Hey, @Leon - we've got a weather link for you!
    "the air is still there and still has to go somewhere"

    Is the absolute crucial part for me.

    Now, high altitude stuff on the edge of space is much more plausible because there's less air there.

    And here's the other thing: if you can avoid having your spaceship "interfering" with other matter (or to put it another way, using the same physical space without affecting it), then why can't these spaceships simply fly through the ground? Because that's matter too.

    Plus, if you're not interacting with matter around you, why is light bouncing off you?

    You don't need to be a genius to realise that videos like the Utah one are massively more likely to be done in After Effects than to be evidence of aliens on earth.

    (And it shouldn't surprise us that these videos are popping up at about the same time that it becomes easy for people at home to make videos like this.)
    Put the lack of sonic boom in the very big bucket labelled “physics we don’t understand” then. I’m not the one saying it. It’s the last Director of National Intelligence saying it. And the ex head of the programme appointed by Congress to investigate these military interactions.

    As Leon has tried to point out, you are all missing the story spectacularly. Don’t try and debunk a given video on YouTube. Explain what the f*** has happened to the public discourse on this in a matter of mere months, led by a string of senior and respectable figures who receive (or received) classified security briefings.
    First of all keep at it. Great to hear the latest scientific theories of UAPs and you seem to have a good grasp of what might be out there please keep us posted.

    I suppose it's just refreshing to see the transformation from internationally-renowned, author of spare, acute prose to a seer [sic] of extra-terrestrials.

    As I say, keep us posted!
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,543

    Well that's it. All exams done. I think I'll open a few tinnys now!

    Congratulations. For a few days you will be the only person in the world who knows whether cattle taken in withernam be irrepleviable.

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,479
    ydoethur said:

    I have to say my job is very varied these days focussing on Scottish Independence and vaginas.

    I’m intrigued. Why the focus on Scottish vaginas?
    Boredom.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,267

    ydoethur said:

    I have to say my job is very varied these days focussing on Scottish Independence and vaginas.

    I’m intrigued. Why the focus on Scottish vaginas?
    Boredom.
    *Raises eyebrows* Did you? #MeToo might be knocking on the door shortly...
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244
    rcs1000 said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    moonshine said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    I observed something I couldn't account for yesterday, when my computer crashed. It could have been alien technology, but I think there are simpler explanations.

    Idiotic comparison. You may not know why it crashed. but a suitably skilled person could trace through the memory dump generated when your computer crashed and figure out why it happened.

    Nobody appears to know what the heck is going on with these UAPs, and their behaviour appears to suggest our understanding of physics is much more limited than we thought.
    That the UAPs aren't doing what people think they are, and it's faked video, an optical illusion or similar, is far more plausible than that the laws of physics aren't being obeyed.
    Not that there’s any point trying to persuade you but the ultra performance is explainable within the bounds of our physics even if requires magic from an engineering perspective.

    It would require a gravity well to be formed around the craft, bending spacetime. While moving at speeds closer to light requires ever more inordinate and unrealistic amounts of energy the closer you get to c, there’s actually nothing in our understanding of physics that says that spacetime cannot expand faster than light. In fact we think in many places it is doing so.

    This would explain several features, notably the transmedium performance, the lack of obvious propulsion means, the acceleration capabilities without causing sonic booms or combustion of atmospheric N2. And the strange visual blurring reported by military eye witnesses, that might also explain why the photos are never crystal clear. It would also presumably mean the time dilation effects from very fast speeds would not occur.

    This is without delving into our physics being utterly incomplete. The lack of compatibility between the Standard Model of QM and Relativity, even though both have excellent empirical support. Matter making up only 5% of the gravitational effects we can measure, with 27% dark matter and dark energy the rest. What is dark matter and where is it? We dunno. What is dark energy? We know less about that than dark matter.

    No doubt Philip Thompson can explain it all and hence tell us why the US defense and intelligence establishment is totally wrong with what now appears to be its leading hypothesis for these phenomena.
    Wait, what?
    Creating a gravity well and twisting space-time wouldn't avoid interactions with the medium.
    It would, though, have all sorts of repercussions. Colossal gravity waves, for a start, and we do have sensors for that. A gravity well like that would have big repercussions in all sorts of areas, from distorting orbits overhead through to ripping items off the ground and massive* issues caused in weather**
    It wouldn't avoid N2 combustion, or sonic booms (the air is still there and still has to go somewhere)

    * Pun intended
    ** Hey, @Leon - we've got a weather link for you!
    )
    Put the lack of sonic boom in the very big bucket labelled “physics we don’t understand” then. I’m not the one saying it. It’s the last Director of National Intelligence saying it. And the ex head of the programme appointed by Congress to investigate these military interactions.

    As Leon has tried to point out, you are all missing the story spectacularly. Don’t try and debunk a given video on YouTube. Explain what the f*** has happened to the public discourse on this in a matter of mere months, led by a string of senior and respectable figures who receive (or received) classified security briefings.
    "Don’t try and debunk a given video on YouTube. Explain what the f*** has happened to the public discourse on this in a matter of mere months"

    So. You're saying that because there are lots of news stories about something, that something must be happening more frequently?

    Do you really want to go there?
    I’m not sure how you get from A to B there. These incidents might be happening more frequently. They might not be.

    What has changed quite fundamentally is that the topic has flipped from being one of ridicule, to one being given public credence by a raft of very senior people who have (or have very recently had) top security clearance. In some cases, with their views of the likely explanation pretty unambiguous.

    It puzzles me why you keep deflecting from this. You are a political geek. The transformation of this topic within the US political apparatus in the last year is extraordinary and as far as I’m aware, without precedent. Move away from the red rag of ET. Top figures of the Western security establishment are openly admitting they don’t have air or technological dominance over their own areas of military operation. By a long long way.

    Help me understand why this admission doesn’t matter?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285

    I have to say my job is very varied these days focussing on Scottish Independence and vaginas.

    Never a dull day.....
    An ex colleague spent ages on a case involving horse semen.

    I think she wrote the word ejaculation about 200 times in one report.

    It was serious stuff, about 100 ml could go for £50,000 a decade ago.
    I have been to a top stud farm in Kentucky....it was an eye opening experience.... although asking why you couldn't just do all of this via artificial insemination, wouldn't it be all much easier, didn't go down very well.
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,631
    RIP Charles Grodin.

    This is a magnificent eulogy (and perhaps suggests he might have been an early influence on the young David Cameron):
    https://slate.com/culture/2021/05/charles-grodin-miss-piggy-muppet-caper.html
  • Options
    AnExileinD4AnExileinD4 Posts: 337
    DougSeal said:

    Well that's it. All exams done. I think I'll open a few tinnys now!

    Congratulations! Whole new vistas of timesheets and attendance notes await you!
    I’ve been a lawyer for over 20 years and haven’t written an attendance note since I was a trainee. Do finance. It’s about making things happen, not being eternally surprised and disappointed.

  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,226
    algarkirk said:

    FWIW it seems to me that once you have allowed a tiny % for the chance of a Labour majority (which I would put generously at 5%) there is no way at this distance of mathematically or prophetically distinguishing between the chances of NOM or a Tory majority, and that each should be regarded as roughly a 48% chance.

    I price it as -

    Con 60%
    Lab 7%
    Hung 33%
  • Options
    pingping Posts: 3,731
    edited May 2021
    algarkirk said:

    Well that's it. All exams done. I think I'll open a few tinnys now!

    Congratulations. For a few days you will be the only person in the world who knows whether cattle taken in withernam be irrepleviable.

    After googling the definitions of those words, I still have absolutely no idea what your sentence means!

    I’m glad I never went into law….
  • Options
    AnExileinD4AnExileinD4 Posts: 337
    ping said:

    algarkirk said:

    Well that's it. All exams done. I think I'll open a few tinnys now!

    Congratulations. For a few days you will be the only person in the world who knows whether cattle taken in withernam be irrepleviable.

    After googling the definitions of those words, I still have absolutely no idea what your sentence means!

    I’m glad I never went into law….
    That’s because its nonsense for most sentient humans (it sounds like the sort of thing that Scots law would see as a good thing, so that comment remains).
  • Options
    No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 3,821

    tlg86 said:

    I'm certain that the media's behaviour over the last year has helped the Tories a lot.

    It is their acalculia that winds me up no end.
    n
    How do these people with no numeracy or statistical ability survive in life?

    Edit - It was around last May when they seemed shocked that as tests ramped up confirmed positive tests would also go up.
    And they sent their political journalists to the COVID briefings, trying to get a "gotcha" moment, when they ought to have sent their science correspondents.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,627
    Three anecdotes, none about Covid:

    1. The paddock behind our house has been empty all year, but this afternoon the farmer who rents it brought a flock of ewes and their lambs. Lovely to hear the baaing and bleating.

    2. Saw the first house martins of the year when I went for a walk.

    3. Also saw one of these UAP things when I was out. OK, I am 99.9999% certain that it was a balloon that some child had let go of, but you never know...

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,479
    edited May 2021

    I have to say my job is very varied these days focussing on Scottish Independence and vaginas.

    Never a dull day.....
    An ex colleague spent ages on a case involving horse semen.

    I think she wrote the word ejaculation about 200 times in one report.

    It was serious stuff, about 100 ml could go for £50,000 a decade ago.
    I have been to a top stud farm in Kentucky....it was an eye opening experience.... although asking why you couldn't just do all of this via artificial insemination, wouldn't it be all much easier, didn't go down very well.
    Yup, there is serious money and egos involved in this field.

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2006/may/07/horseracing.features

    One of the reasons the Glazers managed to take control of Manchester United was because of the consequences of a dispute over stud rights.

    https://www.goal.com/en-ph/news/how-a-racehorse-helped-the-glazer-family-take-control-of-man/15kf9x1h3xy8a1gakygb2unhd6
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,267
    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    moonshine said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    I observed something I couldn't account for yesterday, when my computer crashed. It could have been alien technology, but I think there are simpler explanations.

    Idiotic comparison. You may not know why it crashed. but a suitably skilled person could trace through the memory dump generated when your computer crashed and figure out why it happened.

    Nobody appears to know what the heck is going on with these UAPs, and their behaviour appears to suggest our understanding of physics is much more limited than we thought.
    That the UAPs aren't doing what people think they are, and it's faked video, an optical illusion or similar, is far more plausible than that the laws of physics aren't being obeyed.
    Not that there’s any point trying to persuade you but the ultra performance is explainable within the bounds of our physics even if requires magic from an engineering perspective.

    It would require a gravity well to be formed around the craft, bending spacetime. While moving at speeds closer to light requires ever more inordinate and unrealistic amounts of energy the closer you get to c, there’s actually nothing in our understanding of physics that says that spacetime cannot expand faster than light. In fact we think in many places it is doing so.

    This would explain several features, notably the transmedium performance, the lack of obvious propulsion means, the acceleration capabilities without causing sonic booms or combustion of atmospheric N2. And the strange visual blurring reported by military eye witnesses, that might also explain why the photos are never crystal clear. It would also presumably mean the time dilation effects from very fast speeds would not occur.

    This is without delving into our physics being utterly incomplete. The lack of compatibility between the Standard Model of QM and Relativity, even though both have excellent empirical support. Matter making up only 5% of the gravitational effects we can measure, with 27% dark matter and dark energy the rest. What is dark matter and where is it? We dunno. What is dark energy? We know less about that than dark matter.

    No doubt Philip Thompson can explain it all and hence tell us why the US defense and intelligence establishment is totally wrong with what now appears to be its leading hypothesis for these phenomena.
    Wait, what?
    Creating a gravity well and twisting space-time wouldn't avoid interactions with the medium.
    It would, though, have all sorts of repercussions. Colossal gravity waves, for a start, and we do have sensors for that. A gravity well like that would have big repercussions in all sorts of areas, from distorting orbits overhead through to ripping items off the ground and massive* issues caused in weather**
    It wouldn't avoid N2 combustion, or sonic booms (the air is still there and still has to go somewhere)

    * Pun intended
    ** Hey, @Leon - we've got a weather link for you!
    "the air is still there and still has to go somewhere"

    Is the absolute crucial part for me.

    Now, high altitude stuff on the edge of space is much more plausible because there's less air there.

    And here's the other thing: if you can avoid having your spaceship "interfering" with other matter (or to put it another way, using the same physical space without affecting it), then why can't these spaceships simply fly through the ground? Because that's matter too.

    Plus, if you're not interacting with matter around you, why is light bouncing off you?

    You don't need to be a genius to realise that videos like the Utah one are massively more likely to be done in After Effects than to be evidence of aliens on earth.

    (And it shouldn't surprise us that these videos are popping up at about the same time that it becomes easy for people at home to make videos like this.)
    Put the lack of sonic boom in the very big bucket labelled “physics we don’t understand” then. I’m not the one saying it. It’s the last Director of National Intelligence saying it. And the ex head of the programme appointed by Congress to investigate these military interactions.

    As Leon has tried to point out, you are all missing the story spectacularly. Don’t try and debunk a given video on YouTube. Explain what the f*** has happened to the public discourse on this in a matter of mere months, led by a string of senior and respectable figures who receive (or received) classified security briefings.
    Yes, the story is not the videos or eye witness accounts or radar detections. They are fascinating but pretty standard fare for a UFO Flap

    The story is the reaction by the American Establishment, entirely unlike anything seen before, and hard to explain unless they really are a bit spooked
  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,960

    Three anecdotes, none about Covid:

    1. The paddock behind our house has been empty all year, but this afternoon the farmer who rents it brought a flock of ewes and their lambs. Lovely to hear the baaing and bleating.

    2. Saw the first house martins of the year when I went for a walk.

    3. Also saw one of these UAP things when I was out. OK, I am 99.9999% certain that it was a balloon that some child had let go of, but you never know...

    We have had swallows back for about 3 weeks but are now getting large numbers of House Martins - up to 40 at a time - most evenings.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,786
    FPT
    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    ping said:

    Chameleon said:

    FWIW there does seem to be a real push from elements of the US to say that there are things out there doing stuff that we can't explain (from a former US President down), and moreover this has noticeably increased in intensity over the past 12 months.

    The question is why.

    Is it some sort of push to increase defence spending?

    Unlikely - there's no pushback to do so even without this.

    So why?

    Comedy value.
    Probably.

    However if the US had discovered (say) a radio signal or some other strong indicator of ET then I imagine they'd be really concerned as to how it might play. In that circumstance perhaps they'd roll out some weak (old and non genuine) stuff just to test the water. I have any such thing as a very low probability indeed, but it sort of fits the pattern, and one day (although perhaps not for many thousands of years) something will be found.

    Slightly more likely is that they want to spend more on space, and having some sort of unspecified threat allows some militarisation which would be completely unacceptable if the threat was only here on Earth.

    Anyway the ET aspect is most likely zero, nut there is just perhaps a politcal aspect.
    You don't even begin to explain why the Yankee political, military and journalistic establishment is behaving like this. I do not believe for a moment they would hype up an extra-terrestrial "threat" so as to "get more money for militarised space research". That's lunatic behaviour. These people, including Obama, are not lunatics
    I'm not explaining because I think all of this is very unlikely.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,543
    edited May 2021
    Congratulations. For a few days you will be the only person in the world who knows whether cattle taken in withernam be irrepleviable.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++

    After googling the definitions of those words, I still have absolutely no idea what your sentence means!

    I’m glad I never went into law….


    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++


    Fair enough. It is an ancient story about the unique and peculiar nature of English common law, unknown elsewhere in Europe.

    Sir Thomas More, meeting in Brussels a man who claimed to be able to answer any question of law but necessarily didn't know the common law tradition, puts that question to him. It's a 16th century legal joke. It is, as they say, the way they tell 'em.

    (In essence the question is whether: if A is ordered to give X to B but doesn't, and B takes Y from A instead (withernam), can A recover Y from B (replevin) in the case of cattle.


  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244
    Omnium said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    ping said:

    Chameleon said:

    FWIW there does seem to be a real push from elements of the US to say that there are things out there doing stuff that we can't explain (from a former US President down), and moreover this has noticeably increased in intensity over the past 12 months.

    The question is why.

    Is it some sort of push to increase defence spending?

    Unlikely - there's no pushback to do so even without this.

    So why?

    Comedy value.
    Probably.

    However if the US had discovered (say) a radio signal or some other strong indicator of ET then I imagine they'd be really concerned as to how it might play. In that circumstance perhaps they'd roll out some weak (old and non genuine) stuff just to test the water. I have any such thing as a very low probability indeed, but it sort of fits the pattern, and one day (although perhaps not for many thousands of years) something will be found.

    Slightly more likely is that they want to spend more on space, and having some sort of unspecified threat allows some militarisation which would be completely unacceptable if the threat was only here on Earth.

    Anyway the ET aspect is most likely zero, nut there is just perhaps a politcal aspect.
    You don't even begin to explain why the Yankee political, military and journalistic establishment is behaving like this. I do not believe for a moment they would hype up an extra-terrestrial "threat" so as to "get more money for militarised space research". That's lunatic behaviour. These people, including Obama, are not lunatics
    I'm not explaining because I think all of this is very unlikely.
    “I’m not bothering to attend a cobra meeting about a killer virus that you say will bring the world to its knees because I think it’s all a bit unlikely”.
  • Options
    EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    kinabalu said:

    tlg86 said:

    I'm certain that the media's behaviour over the last year has helped the Tories a lot.

    The media always helps the Tories.
    Certainly. The BBC lead the way, by overexposing Owen Jones to swing voters.
  • Options
    FF43FF43 Posts: 15,723

    Nigelb said:

    A warning for crypto enthusiasts...

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crash-coinbase-cryptocurrency-exchanges-51621437348
    ... Trading crypto isn’t anything like stocks. Liquidity is relatively thin, and there are big spreads between the bid and ask prices. Commissions are steep. And as this morning’s outages indicate, the exchanges may not be equipped to handle a surge in volatility and sell orders—preventing investors from getting their money out fast.

    Bitcoin has been in a selloff for months and the downturn may be only be accelerating. The latest bad tidings came from China, which reiterated a ban on cryptocurrencies for domestic financial transactions. India also plans to ban cryptocurrencies and fine anyone trading or holding digital assets, according to a report in Reuters...

    Believe it or not, I've been discussing vaginas as NFTs today.

    Cara Delevingne's vagina to be precise.

    Cara Delevingne is auctioning off an NFT artwork about her vagina to raise money for women’s rights and fighting the climate crisis.

    https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2021/05/18/cara-delevingne-nft-vagina-chemical-x/
    You might find this explanation interesting. Substitute Mona Lisa for vagina



    https://mobile.twitter.com/cherrycarat/status/1394198845744041984
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,267
    Omnium said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    ping said:

    Chameleon said:

    FWIW there does seem to be a real push from elements of the US to say that there are things out there doing stuff that we can't explain (from a former US President down), and moreover this has noticeably increased in intensity over the past 12 months.

    The question is why.

    Is it some sort of push to increase defence spending?

    Unlikely - there's no pushback to do so even without this.

    So why?

    Comedy value.
    Probably.

    However if the US had discovered (say) a radio signal or some other strong indicator of ET then I imagine they'd be really concerned as to how it might play. In that circumstance perhaps they'd roll out some weak (old and non genuine) stuff just to test the water. I have any such thing as a very low probability indeed, but it sort of fits the pattern, and one day (although perhaps not for many thousands of years) something will be found.

    Slightly more likely is that they want to spend more on space, and having some sort of unspecified threat allows some militarisation which would be completely unacceptable if the threat was only here on Earth.

    Anyway the ET aspect is most likely zero, nut there is just perhaps a politcal aspect.
    You don't even begin to explain why the Yankee political, military and journalistic establishment is behaving like this. I do not believe for a moment they would hype up an extra-terrestrial "threat" so as to "get more money for militarised space research". That's lunatic behaviour. These people, including Obama, are not lunatics
    I'm not explaining because I think all of this is very unlikely.
    With all due respect, that is limitlessly pathetic

    Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence

    That applies to both sides. Because any explanation for all this is gonna be crazy. How and why are all these highly-informed Americans acting so nuts, why push the narrative that it could be actual ALIENS?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    kinabalu said:

    algarkirk said:

    FWIW it seems to me that once you have allowed a tiny % for the chance of a Labour majority (which I would put generously at 5%) there is no way at this distance of mathematically or prophetically distinguishing between the chances of NOM or a Tory majority, and that each should be regarded as roughly a 48% chance.

    I price it as -

    Con 60%
    Lab 7%
    Hung 33%
    Ye that's about right. Most of Labour's 7% is due to time. If the election was tommorow they'd rightfully be sub 1%
  • Options
    ajbajb Posts: 122
    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    moonshine said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    I observed something I couldn't account for yesterday, when my computer crashed. It could have been alien technology, but I think there are simpler explanations.

    Idiotic comparison. You may not know why it crashed. but a suitably skilled person could trace through the memory dump generated when your computer crashed and figure out why it happened.

    Nobody appears to know what the heck is going on with these UAPs, and their behaviour appears to suggest our understanding of physics is much more limited than we thought.
    That the UAPs aren't doing what people think they are, and it's faked video, an optical illusion or similar, is far more plausible than that the laws of physics aren't being obeyed.
    Not that there’s any point trying to persuade you but the ultra performance is explainable within the bounds of our physics even if requires magic from an engineering perspective.

    It would require a gravity well to be formed around the craft, bending spacetime. While moving at speeds closer to light requires ever more inordinate and unrealistic amounts of energy the closer you get to c, there’s actually nothing in our understanding of physics that says that spacetime cannot expand faster than light. In fact we think in many places it is doing so.

    This would explain several features, notably the transmedium performance, the lack of obvious propulsion means, the acceleration capabilities without causing sonic booms or combustion of atmospheric N2. And the strange visual blurring reported by military eye witnesses, that might also explain why the photos are never crystal clear. It would also presumably mean the time dilation effects from very fast speeds would not occur.

    This is without delving into our physics being utterly incomplete. The lack of compatibility between the Standard Model of QM and Relativity, even though both have excellent empirical support. Matter making up only 5% of the gravitational effects we can measure, with 27% dark matter and dark energy the rest. What is dark matter and where is it? We dunno. What is dark energy? We know less about that than dark matter.

    No doubt Philip Thompson can explain it all and hence tell us why the US defense and intelligence establishment is totally wrong with what now appears to be its leading hypothesis for these phenomena.
    Wait, what?
    Creating a gravity well and twisting space-time wouldn't avoid interactions with the medium.
    It would, though, have all sorts of repercussions. Colossal gravity waves, for a start, and we do have sensors for that. A gravity well like that would have big repercussions in all sorts of areas, from distorting orbits overhead through to ripping items off the ground and massive* issues caused in weather**
    It wouldn't avoid N2 combustion, or sonic booms (the air is still there and still has to go somewhere)

    * Pun intended
    ** Hey, @Leon - we've got a weather link for you!
    "the air is still there and still has to go somewhere"

    Is the absolute crucial part for me.

    Now, high altitude stuff on the edge of space is much more plausible because there's less air there.

    And here's the other thing: if you can avoid having your spaceship "interfering" with other matter (or to put it another way, using the same physical space without affecting it), then why can't these spaceships simply fly through the ground? Because that's matter too.

    Plus, if you're not interacting with matter around you, why is light bouncing off you?

    You don't need to be a genius to realise that videos like the Utah one are massively more likely to be done in After Effects than to be evidence of aliens on earth.

    (And it shouldn't surprise us that these videos are popping up at about the same time that it becomes easy for people at home to make videos like this.)
    Put the lack of sonic boom in the very big bucket labelled “physics we don’t understand” then. I’m not the one saying it. It’s the last Director of National Intelligence saying it. And the ex head of the programme appointed by Congress to investigate these military interactions.

    As Leon has tried to point out, you are all missing the story spectacularly. Don’t try and debunk a given video on YouTube. Explain what the f*** has happened to the public discourse on this in a matter of mere months, led by a string of senior and respectable figures who receive (or received) classified security briefings.
    Yes, the story is not the videos or eye witness accounts or radar detections. They are fascinating but pretty standard fare for a UFO Flap

    The story is the reaction by the American Establishment, entirely unlike anything seen before, and hard to explain unless they really are a bit spooked
    The problem with "poeple who receive(d) security briefings", is that almost by definition they aren't supposed to let slip what is actually in them. Which means "can't rule out UFOs" could be cover for any number of things. A few that spring to mind are:
    • A new device the US are testing
    • A foreign snooping device
    • Someone has worked out how to hack military video feeds (not necessarily a state actor) and they haven't been caught yet
    • The US was trying out some psyops on their own people
    • They just want to use up media bandwidth at the moment
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,012
    The punters are about right on this, currently the Tories would likely be re elected with a majority and there is zero chance of a Labour majority, as OGH correctly states, without Labour regaining its seats in Scotland and the Red Wall.

    To get even a hung parliament would require LD gains from the Tories in the South and Labour gains from the Tories in London and the Red Wall.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,267
    ajb said:

    Leon said:

    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    FPT:

    moonshine said:

    .

    Nigelb said:

    I observed something I couldn't account for yesterday, when my computer crashed. It could have been alien technology, but I think there are simpler explanations.

    Idiotic comparison. You may not know why it crashed. but a suitably skilled person could trace through the memory dump generated when your computer crashed and figure out why it happened.

    Nobody appears to know what the heck is going on with these UAPs, and their behaviour appears to suggest our understanding of physics is much more limited than we thought.
    That the UAPs aren't doing what people think they are, and it's faked video, an optical illusion or similar, is far more plausible than that the laws of physics aren't being obeyed.
    Not that there’s any point trying to persuade you but the ultra performance is explainable within the bounds of our physics even if requires magic from an engineering perspective.

    It would require a gravity well to be formed around the craft, bending spacetime. While moving at speeds closer to light requires ever more inordinate and unrealistic amounts of energy the closer you get to c, there’s actually nothing in our understanding of physics that says that spacetime cannot expand faster than light. In fact we think in many places it is doing so.

    This would explain several features, notably the transmedium performance, the lack of obvious propulsion means, the acceleration capabilities without causing sonic booms or combustion of atmospheric N2. And the strange visual blurring reported by military eye witnesses, that might also explain why the photos are never crystal clear. It would also presumably mean the time dilation effects from very fast speeds would not occur.

    This is without delving into our physics being utterly incomplete. The lack of compatibility between the Standard Model of QM and Relativity, even though both have excellent empirical support. Matter making up only 5% of the gravitational effects we can measure, with 27% dark matter and dark energy the rest. What is dark matter and where is it? We dunno. What is dark energy? We know less about that than dark matter.

    No doubt Philip Thompson can explain it all and hence tell us why the US defense and intelligence establishment is totally wrong with what now appears to be its leading hypothesis for these phenomena.
    Wait, what?
    Creating a gravity well and twisting space-time wouldn't avoid interactions with the medium.
    It would, though, have all sorts of repercussions. Colossal gravity waves, for a start, and we do have sensors for that. A gravity well like that would have big repercussions in all sorts of areas, from distorting orbits overhead through to ripping items off the ground and massive* issues caused in weather**
    It wouldn't avoid N2 combustion, or sonic booms (the air is still there and still has to go somewhere)

    * Pun intended
    ** Hey, @Leon - we've got a weather link for you!
    "the air is still there and still has to go somewhere"

    Is the absolute crucial part for me.

    Now, high altitude stuff on the edge of space is much more plausible because there's less air there.

    And here's the other thing: if you can avoid having your spaceship "interfering" with other matter (or to put it another way, using the same physical space without affecting it), then why can't these spaceships simply fly through the ground? Because that's matter too.

    Plus, if you're not interacting with matter around you, why is light bouncing off you?

    You don't need to be a genius to realise that videos like the Utah one are massively more likely to be done in After Effects than to be evidence of aliens on earth.

    (And it shouldn't surprise us that these videos are popping up at about the same time that it becomes easy for people at home to make videos like this.)
    Put the lack of sonic boom in the very big bucket labelled “physics we don’t understand” then. I’m not the one saying it. It’s the last Director of National Intelligence saying it. And the ex head of the programme appointed by Congress to investigate these military interactions.

    As Leon has tried to point out, you are all missing the story spectacularly. Don’t try and debunk a given video on YouTube. Explain what the f*** has happened to the public discourse on this in a matter of mere months, led by a string of senior and respectable figures who receive (or received) classified security briefings.
    Yes, the story is not the videos or eye witness accounts or radar detections. They are fascinating but pretty standard fare for a UFO Flap

    The story is the reaction by the American Establishment, entirely unlike anything seen before, and hard to explain unless they really are a bit spooked
    The problem with "poeple who receive(d) security briefings", is that almost by definition they aren't supposed to let slip what is actually in them. Which means "can't rule out UFOs" could be cover for any number of things. A few that spring to mind are:
    • A new device the US are testing
    • A foreign snooping device
    • Someone has worked out how to hack military video feeds (not necessarily a state actor) and they haven't been caught yet
    • The US was trying out some psyops on their own people
    • They just want to use up media bandwidth at the moment
    All possible, but they all have problems


    1. New device - but these videos and accounts go back decades
    2. Foreign snooping device - ditto, also the physics-defying behaviour? 15,000 mph?
    3. Hacking - can they hack the brains of the pilots and the former president?
    4. Psyops - possible, but almost as alarming as aliens. Why?
    5. Media bandwith? - no. Insane
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    tlg86 said:

    I'm certain that the media's behaviour over the last year has helped the Tories a lot.

    It is their acalculia that winds me up no end.

    How do these people with no numeracy or statistical ability survive in life?

    Edit - It was around last May when they seemed shocked that as tests ramped up confirmed positive tests would also go up.
    To be fair, in a forum full of gamblers, we've had to explain how the false positive rate is not 8% (or indeed a 100% as I think the claims managed to reach at one point) many, many, many times.
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,543
    FF43 said:

    Nigelb said:

    A warning for crypto enthusiasts...

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crash-coinbase-cryptocurrency-exchanges-51621437348
    ... Trading crypto isn’t anything like stocks. Liquidity is relatively thin, and there are big spreads between the bid and ask prices. Commissions are steep. And as this morning’s outages indicate, the exchanges may not be equipped to handle a surge in volatility and sell orders—preventing investors from getting their money out fast.

    Bitcoin has been in a selloff for months and the downturn may be only be accelerating. The latest bad tidings came from China, which reiterated a ban on cryptocurrencies for domestic financial transactions. India also plans to ban cryptocurrencies and fine anyone trading or holding digital assets, according to a report in Reuters...

    Believe it or not, I've been discussing vaginas as NFTs today.

    Cara Delevingne's vagina to be precise.

    Cara Delevingne is auctioning off an NFT artwork about her vagina to raise money for women’s rights and fighting the climate crisis.

    https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2021/05/18/cara-delevingne-nft-vagina-chemical-x/
    You might find this explanation interesting. Substitute Mona Lisa for vagina



    https://mobile.twitter.com/cherrycarat/status/1394198845744041984
    Compared with which the of whether cattle taken in withernam be irrepleviable seems an intelligent and sensible one.

  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,786
    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    ping said:

    Chameleon said:

    FWIW there does seem to be a real push from elements of the US to say that there are things out there doing stuff that we can't explain (from a former US President down), and moreover this has noticeably increased in intensity over the past 12 months.

    The question is why.

    Is it some sort of push to increase defence spending?

    Unlikely - there's no pushback to do so even without this.

    So why?

    Comedy value.
    Probably.

    However if the US had discovered (say) a radio signal or some other strong indicator of ET then I imagine they'd be really concerned as to how it might play. In that circumstance perhaps they'd roll out some weak (old and non genuine) stuff just to test the water. I have any such thing as a very low probability indeed, but it sort of fits the pattern, and one day (although perhaps not for many thousands of years) something will be found.

    Slightly more likely is that they want to spend more on space, and having some sort of unspecified threat allows some militarisation which would be completely unacceptable if the threat was only here on Earth.

    Anyway the ET aspect is most likely zero, nut there is just perhaps a politcal aspect.
    You don't even begin to explain why the Yankee political, military and journalistic establishment is behaving like this. I do not believe for a moment they would hype up an extra-terrestrial "threat" so as to "get more money for militarised space research". That's lunatic behaviour. These people, including Obama, are not lunatics
    I'm not explaining because I think all of this is very unlikely.
    With all due respect, that is limitlessly pathetic

    Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence

    That applies to both sides. Because any explanation for all this is gonna be crazy. How and why are all these highly-informed Americans acting so nuts, why push the narrative that it could be actual ALIENS?
    Due respect noted. Abuse disregarded. I suggested a plausible idea which as I made very clear I think is very unlikely. It is plausible though.

    Nobody is actually doing anything at all about this stuff because it is very likely fantasy. It's not impossible though and in the wildly unlikely event that there is something then we might tease out the possibilities.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,479
    Alistair said:

    tlg86 said:

    I'm certain that the media's behaviour over the last year has helped the Tories a lot.

    It is their acalculia that winds me up no end.

    How do these people with no numeracy or statistical ability survive in life?

    Edit - It was around last May when they seemed shocked that as tests ramped up confirmed positive tests would also go up.
    To be fair, in a forum full of gamblers, we've had to explain how the false positive rate is not 8% (or indeed a 100% as I think the claims managed to reach at one point) many, many, many times.
    Yes, we also had to explain many many times that the trendlines Alistair Hames was adding to his graphs were a massive red flag about his numbers.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,012
    Richard Burgon urges sanctions on Israel as Biden tells Netanyahu he expects a 'significant de-escalation' in the violence between Israelis and Palestinians.

    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1395008623428968450?s=20

    https://twitter.com/politico/status/1395042868553781254?s=20
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,681
    Nigelb said:

    A warning for crypto enthusiasts...

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crash-coinbase-cryptocurrency-exchanges-51621437348
    ... Trading crypto isn’t anything like stocks. Liquidity is relatively thin, and there are big spreads between the bid and ask prices. Commissions are steep. And as this morning’s outages indicate, the exchanges may not be equipped to handle a surge in volatility and sell orders—preventing investors from getting their money out fast.

    Bitcoin has been in a selloff for months and the downturn may be only be accelerating. The latest bad tidings came from China, which reiterated a ban on cryptocurrencies for domestic financial transactions. India also plans to ban cryptocurrencies and fine anyone trading or holding digital assets, according to a report in Reuters...

    Cryptocurrencies are the biggest and best pyramid scheme in history surely?
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,786
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    A warning for crypto enthusiasts...

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crash-coinbase-cryptocurrency-exchanges-51621437348
    ... Trading crypto isn’t anything like stocks. Liquidity is relatively thin, and there are big spreads between the bid and ask prices. Commissions are steep. And as this morning’s outages indicate, the exchanges may not be equipped to handle a surge in volatility and sell orders—preventing investors from getting their money out fast.

    Bitcoin has been in a selloff for months and the downturn may be only be accelerating. The latest bad tidings came from China, which reiterated a ban on cryptocurrencies for domestic financial transactions. India also plans to ban cryptocurrencies and fine anyone trading or holding digital assets, according to a report in Reuters...

    Cryptocurrencies are the biggest and best pyramid scheme in history surely?
    South Seas bubble was more important.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,012
    Pelosi calls for US boycott of Beijing Winter Olympics next year

    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1394812031950274560?s=20
  • Options
    algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 10,543
    edited May 2021
    HYUFD said:

    The punters are about right on this, currently the Tories would likely be re elected with a majority and there is zero chance of a Labour majority, as OGH correctly states, without Labour regaining its seats in Scotland and the Red Wall.

    To get even a hung parliament would require LD gains from the Tories in the South and Labour gains from the Tories in London and the Red Wall.

    Broadly agree with this account. But, while ATM there is zero chance of a Labour majority there is up to three years for a Black Swan to appear, so is is small but not zero.

    I don't think there is any way of distinguishing between the chances of a Tory victory or NOM if the election is more than a short time away, which obvs it is. So I put it at 48% each. It's a bet on a two horse race in 23/24 with no form guide.

  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,012
    New French Harris poll

    Round 1

    Le Pen 29%
    Macron 27%
    Melenchon 13%
    Barnier 6% (Bertrand would get 14% as LR candidate)
    Hidalgo 6%
    Jadot 6%

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1395070200094109700?s=20
    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1395069416224788482?s=20

    Run off

    Macron 53%
    Le Pen 47%

    https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1395074752289681412?s=20
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,124

    I have to say my job is very varied these days focussing on Scottish Independence and vaginas.

    Never a dull day.....
    An ex colleague spent ages on a case involving horse semen.

    I think she wrote the word ejaculation about 200 times in one report.

    It was serious stuff, about 100 ml could go for £50,000 a decade ago.
    I have been to a top stud farm in Kentucky....it was an eye opening experience.... although asking why you couldn't just do all of this via artificial insemination, wouldn't it be all much easier, didn't go down very well.
    I believe eye opening is part of the process
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,193
    HYUFD said:

    Pelosi calls for US boycott of Beijing Winter Olympics next year

    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1394812031950274560?s=20

    Diplomatic boycott
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,681
    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    A warning for crypto enthusiasts...

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crash-coinbase-cryptocurrency-exchanges-51621437348
    ... Trading crypto isn’t anything like stocks. Liquidity is relatively thin, and there are big spreads between the bid and ask prices. Commissions are steep. And as this morning’s outages indicate, the exchanges may not be equipped to handle a surge in volatility and sell orders—preventing investors from getting their money out fast.

    Bitcoin has been in a selloff for months and the downturn may be only be accelerating. The latest bad tidings came from China, which reiterated a ban on cryptocurrencies for domestic financial transactions. India also plans to ban cryptocurrencies and fine anyone trading or holding digital assets, according to a report in Reuters...

    Cryptocurrencies are the biggest and best pyramid scheme in history surely?
    South Seas bubble was more important.
    As a percentage of global capital, inflation adjusted, which is the bigger?

    The total crypto market capitalisation was US $2 trillion a few months ago. Obviously smaller now.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,786
    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    A warning for crypto enthusiasts...

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crash-coinbase-cryptocurrency-exchanges-51621437348
    ... Trading crypto isn’t anything like stocks. Liquidity is relatively thin, and there are big spreads between the bid and ask prices. Commissions are steep. And as this morning’s outages indicate, the exchanges may not be equipped to handle a surge in volatility and sell orders—preventing investors from getting their money out fast.

    Bitcoin has been in a selloff for months and the downturn may be only be accelerating. The latest bad tidings came from China, which reiterated a ban on cryptocurrencies for domestic financial transactions. India also plans to ban cryptocurrencies and fine anyone trading or holding digital assets, according to a report in Reuters...

    Cryptocurrencies are the biggest and best pyramid scheme in history surely?
    South Seas bubble was more important.
    As a percentage of global capital, inflation adjusted, which is the bigger?

    The total crypto market capitalisation was US $2 trillion a few months ago. Obviously smaller now.
    I don't know but I'd guess the South Seas. But that was a time when it pretty much soaked up most of the risk capital available. Crypto-stuff represents a huge number, but it's almost all money that didn't exist, now apparently does, and may well not exist in the future.

    I'm personally very deliberately not involved, long or short.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pelosi calls for US boycott of Beijing Winter Olympics next year

    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1394812031950274560?s=20

    Diplomatic boycott
    Ah, so not quite a repeat of 1980.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,267
    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    ping said:

    Chameleon said:

    FWIW there does seem to be a real push from elements of the US to say that there are things out there doing stuff that we can't explain (from a former US President down), and moreover this has noticeably increased in intensity over the past 12 months.

    The question is why.

    Is it some sort of push to increase defence spending?

    Unlikely - there's no pushback to do so even without this.

    So why?

    Comedy value.
    Probably.

    However if the US had discovered (say) a radio signal or some other strong indicator of ET then I imagine they'd be really concerned as to how it might play. In that circumstance perhaps they'd roll out some weak (old and non genuine) stuff just to test the water. I have any such thing as a very low probability indeed, but it sort of fits the pattern, and one day (although perhaps not for many thousands of years) something will be found.

    Slightly more likely is that they want to spend more on space, and having some sort of unspecified threat allows some militarisation which would be completely unacceptable if the threat was only here on Earth.

    Anyway the ET aspect is most likely zero, nut there is just perhaps a politcal aspect.
    You don't even begin to explain why the Yankee political, military and journalistic establishment is behaving like this. I do not believe for a moment they would hype up an extra-terrestrial "threat" so as to "get more money for militarised space research". That's lunatic behaviour. These people, including Obama, are not lunatics
    I'm not explaining because I think all of this is very unlikely.
    With all due respect, that is limitlessly pathetic

    Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence

    That applies to both sides. Because any explanation for all this is gonna be crazy. How and why are all these highly-informed Americans acting so nuts, why push the narrative that it could be actual ALIENS?
    Due respect noted. Abuse disregarded. I suggested a plausible idea which as I made very clear I think is very unlikely. It is plausible though.

    Nobody is actually doing anything at all about this stuff because it is very likely fantasy. It's not impossible though and in the wildly unlikely event that there is something then we might tease out the possibilities.
    Sorry for the snappiness, but it is frustrating when you just don't address the question. If you don't believe it can possibly be aliens (and I totally get that, I find it very hard to believe myself) then you do have to explain why the US authorities are behaving as if they have evidence that this "could" be aliens

    Why would they even go down that road?
  • Options
    TazTaz Posts: 11,193
    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pelosi calls for US boycott of Beijing Winter Olympics next year

    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1394812031950274560?s=20

    Diplomatic boycott
    Ah, so not quite a repeat of 1980.
    No, I think they like the gold medals
  • Options
    AnExileinD4AnExileinD4 Posts: 337
    Sandpit said:

    Taz said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pelosi calls for US boycott of Beijing Winter Olympics next year

    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1394812031950274560?s=20

    Diplomatic boycott
    Ah, so not quite a repeat of 1980.
    More anal swabbing though.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,862
    HYUFD said:

    The punters are about right on this, currently the Tories would likely be re elected with a majority and there is zero chance of a Labour majority, as OGH correctly states, without Labour regaining its seats in Scotland and the Red Wall.

    To get even a hung parliament would require LD gains from the Tories in the South and Labour gains from the Tories in London and the Red Wall.

    From the perspective of Labour's 15th safest seat nationally and 5th safest in London, I suspect very little will change here.

    Milton Keynes North requires a 5% swing from Conservative to Labour - it's not ben Labour since (notionally) 2005 and in 2019, the Labour vote fell back to the LDs with the CON vote rising slightly.

    The key to changing the Government, to be blunt, is to reduce the numbers voting Conservative and encouraging those who do want to vote against the Government to vote tactically where it is most likely to dislodge a sitting Conservative MP - hardly rocket science.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    A warning for crypto enthusiasts...

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crash-coinbase-cryptocurrency-exchanges-51621437348
    ... Trading crypto isn’t anything like stocks. Liquidity is relatively thin, and there are big spreads between the bid and ask prices. Commissions are steep. And as this morning’s outages indicate, the exchanges may not be equipped to handle a surge in volatility and sell orders—preventing investors from getting their money out fast.

    Bitcoin has been in a selloff for months and the downturn may be only be accelerating. The latest bad tidings came from China, which reiterated a ban on cryptocurrencies for domestic financial transactions. India also plans to ban cryptocurrencies and fine anyone trading or holding digital assets, according to a report in Reuters...

    Cryptocurrencies are the biggest and best pyramid scheme in history surely?
    South Seas bubble was more important.
    As a percentage of global capital, inflation adjusted, which is the bigger?

    The total crypto market capitalisation was US $2 trillion a few months ago. Obviously smaller now.
    Bitcoin is off 30% in the last fortnight!

    They’re nothing more than digital tulips.
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,786
    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    ping said:

    Chameleon said:

    FWIW there does seem to be a real push from elements of the US to say that there are things out there doing stuff that we can't explain (from a former US President down), and moreover this has noticeably increased in intensity over the past 12 months.

    The question is why.

    Is it some sort of push to increase defence spending?

    Unlikely - there's no pushback to do so even without this.

    So why?

    Comedy value.
    Probably.

    However if the US had discovered (say) a radio signal or some other strong indicator of ET then I imagine they'd be really concerned as to how it might play. In that circumstance perhaps they'd roll out some weak (old and non genuine) stuff just to test the water. I have any such thing as a very low probability indeed, but it sort of fits the pattern, and one day (although perhaps not for many thousands of years) something will be found.

    Slightly more likely is that they want to spend more on space, and having some sort of unspecified threat allows some militarisation which would be completely unacceptable if the threat was only here on Earth.

    Anyway the ET aspect is most likely zero, nut there is just perhaps a politcal aspect.
    You don't even begin to explain why the Yankee political, military and journalistic establishment is behaving like this. I do not believe for a moment they would hype up an extra-terrestrial "threat" so as to "get more money for militarised space research". That's lunatic behaviour. These people, including Obama, are not lunatics
    I'm not explaining because I think all of this is very unlikely.
    With all due respect, that is limitlessly pathetic

    Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence

    That applies to both sides. Because any explanation for all this is gonna be crazy. How and why are all these highly-informed Americans acting so nuts, why push the narrative that it could be actual ALIENS?
    Due respect noted. Abuse disregarded. I suggested a plausible idea which as I made very clear I think is very unlikely. It is plausible though.

    Nobody is actually doing anything at all about this stuff because it is very likely fantasy. It's not impossible though and in the wildly unlikely event that there is something then we might tease out the possibilities.
    Sorry for the snappiness, but it is frustrating when you just don't address the question. If you don't believe it can possibly be aliens (and I totally get that, I find it very hard to believe myself) then you do have to explain why the US authorities are behaving as if they have evidence that this "could" be aliens

    Why would they even go down that road?
    I believe completely that it could be aliens, but I assign that a very low probability (very low indeed). If we wait long enough I assign a very high probability to us finding intelligent life elsewhere. Long enough might be millions of years though.

    Overall I have no idea why the US might be doing this. All I can think of it is in order to change the political agenda with regards to what happens in space in the future. There's a tiny possibility that it might be that they've actually found something. Both of these reasons - small chance and tiny chance I think make sense as I've represented them. Clearly though they are, so far as I am concerned, possibilities rather than anything likely to be true.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,871
    edited May 2021
    algarkirk said:

    HYUFD said:

    The punters are about right on this, currently the Tories would likely be re elected with a majority and there is zero chance of a Labour majority, as OGH correctly states, without Labour regaining its seats in Scotland and the Red Wall.

    To get even a hung parliament would require LD gains from the Tories in the South and Labour gains from the Tories in London and the Red Wall.

    Broadly agree with this account. But, while ATM there is zero chance of a Labour majority there is up to three years for a Black Swan to appear, so is is small but not zero.

    I don't think there is any way of distinguishing between the chances of a Tory victory or NOM if the election is more than a short time away, which obvs it is. So I put it at 48% each. It's a bet on a two horse race in 23/24 with no form guide.

    SKS needs snookers.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,862
    Evening all :)

    Tentative signs the miserable git in North London will be able to enjoy his Galician Fish Stew lunch with our future alien overlords in slightly warmer conditions by this time next week.

    Not guaranteed and not all models suggesting it will last but perhaps 48-72 hours of more typical late May weather.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,267
    HYUFD said:

    Richard Burgon urges sanctions on Israel as Biden tells Netanyahu he expects a 'significant de-escalation' in the violence between Israelis and Palestinians.

    https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1395008623428968450?s=20

    https://twitter.com/politico/status/1395042868553781254?s=20

    For a moment I thought Burgon had told Netanyahu he expected a significant de-escalation.

    I was startled to learn how self-important Burgon had become.
  • Options
    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,898
    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    ping said:

    Chameleon said:

    FWIW there does seem to be a real push from elements of the US to say that there are things out there doing stuff that we can't explain (from a former US President down), and moreover this has noticeably increased in intensity over the past 12 months.

    The question is why.

    Is it some sort of push to increase defence spending?

    Unlikely - there's no pushback to do so even without this.

    So why?

    Comedy value.
    Probably.

    However if the US had discovered (say) a radio signal or some other strong indicator of ET then I imagine they'd be really concerned as to how it might play. In that circumstance perhaps they'd roll out some weak (old and non genuine) stuff just to test the water. I have any such thing as a very low probability indeed, but it sort of fits the pattern, and one day (although perhaps not for many thousands of years) something will be found.

    Slightly more likely is that they want to spend more on space, and having some sort of unspecified threat allows some militarisation which would be completely unacceptable if the threat was only here on Earth.

    Anyway the ET aspect is most likely zero, nut there is just perhaps a politcal aspect.
    You don't even begin to explain why the Yankee political, military and journalistic establishment is behaving like this. I do not believe for a moment they would hype up an extra-terrestrial "threat" so as to "get more money for militarised space research". That's lunatic behaviour. These people, including Obama, are not lunatics
    I'm not explaining because I think all of this is very unlikely.
    With all due respect, that is limitlessly pathetic

    Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence

    That applies to both sides. Because any explanation for all this is gonna be crazy. How and why are all these highly-informed Americans acting so nuts, why push the narrative that it could be actual ALIENS?
    Due respect noted. Abuse disregarded. I suggested a plausible idea which as I made very clear I think is very unlikely. It is plausible though.

    Nobody is actually doing anything at all about this stuff because it is very likely fantasy. It's not impossible though and in the wildly unlikely event that there is something then we might tease out the possibilities.
    Sorry for the snappiness, but it is frustrating when you just don't address the question. If you don't believe it can possibly be aliens (and I totally get that, I find it very hard to believe myself) then you do have to explain why the US authorities are behaving as if they have evidence that this "could" be aliens

    Why would they even go down that road?
    Because talking about a pandemic or increasing racial tensions is bad for ratings of the guys in charge?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    A warning for crypto enthusiasts...

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crash-coinbase-cryptocurrency-exchanges-51621437348
    ... Trading crypto isn’t anything like stocks. Liquidity is relatively thin, and there are big spreads between the bid and ask prices. Commissions are steep. And as this morning’s outages indicate, the exchanges may not be equipped to handle a surge in volatility and sell orders—preventing investors from getting their money out fast.

    Bitcoin has been in a selloff for months and the downturn may be only be accelerating. The latest bad tidings came from China, which reiterated a ban on cryptocurrencies for domestic financial transactions. India also plans to ban cryptocurrencies and fine anyone trading or holding digital assets, according to a report in Reuters...

    Cryptocurrencies are the biggest and best pyramid scheme in history surely?
    South Seas bubble was more important.
    As a percentage of global capital, inflation adjusted, which is the bigger?

    The total crypto market capitalisation was US $2 trillion a few months ago. Obviously smaller now.
    Bitcoin is off 30% in the last fortnight!

    They’re nothing more than digital tulips.
    But @contrarian was convinced that the Definitely not a Ponzi Scheme Coin was only at the foothills of its rise.
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    A warning for crypto enthusiasts...

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crash-coinbase-cryptocurrency-exchanges-51621437348
    ... Trading crypto isn’t anything like stocks. Liquidity is relatively thin, and there are big spreads between the bid and ask prices. Commissions are steep. And as this morning’s outages indicate, the exchanges may not be equipped to handle a surge in volatility and sell orders—preventing investors from getting their money out fast.

    Bitcoin has been in a selloff for months and the downturn may be only be accelerating. The latest bad tidings came from China, which reiterated a ban on cryptocurrencies for domestic financial transactions. India also plans to ban cryptocurrencies and fine anyone trading or holding digital assets, according to a report in Reuters...

    Cryptocurrencies are the biggest and best pyramid scheme in history surely?
    You do not buy bitcoin to make money. You buy it to 'disappear' assets from your government.

    Which doesn't matter much if you live in Britain.

    But say you lived in Venezuela. Or China. Or Russia. Or anywhere that arbitrary confiscation of property by government is common.


  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    A warning for crypto enthusiasts...

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crash-coinbase-cryptocurrency-exchanges-51621437348
    ... Trading crypto isn’t anything like stocks. Liquidity is relatively thin, and there are big spreads between the bid and ask prices. Commissions are steep. And as this morning’s outages indicate, the exchanges may not be equipped to handle a surge in volatility and sell orders—preventing investors from getting their money out fast.

    Bitcoin has been in a selloff for months and the downturn may be only be accelerating. The latest bad tidings came from China, which reiterated a ban on cryptocurrencies for domestic financial transactions. India also plans to ban cryptocurrencies and fine anyone trading or holding digital assets, according to a report in Reuters...

    Cryptocurrencies are the biggest and best pyramid scheme in history surely?
    South Seas bubble was more important.
    As a percentage of global capital, inflation adjusted, which is the bigger?

    The total crypto market capitalisation was US $2 trillion a few months ago. Obviously smaller now.
    Bitcoin is off 30% in the last fortnight!

    They’re nothing more than digital tulips.
    At least you had a nice flower with tulips.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    A warning for crypto enthusiasts...

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crash-coinbase-cryptocurrency-exchanges-51621437348
    ... Trading crypto isn’t anything like stocks. Liquidity is relatively thin, and there are big spreads between the bid and ask prices. Commissions are steep. And as this morning’s outages indicate, the exchanges may not be equipped to handle a surge in volatility and sell orders—preventing investors from getting their money out fast.

    Bitcoin has been in a selloff for months and the downturn may be only be accelerating. The latest bad tidings came from China, which reiterated a ban on cryptocurrencies for domestic financial transactions. India also plans to ban cryptocurrencies and fine anyone trading or holding digital assets, according to a report in Reuters...

    Cryptocurrencies are the biggest and best pyramid scheme in history surely?
    You do not buy bitcoin to make money. You buy it to 'disappear' assets from your government.

    Which doesn't matter much if you live in Britain.

    But say you lived in Venezuela. Or China. Or Russia. Or anywhere that arbitrary confiscation of property by government is common.


    But bitcoin is terrible for that.

    Sure it's supposedly anonymous but it has no intrinsic worth. So it's not worth holding. Which destroys its purpose in being anonymous.

    So you can buy bitcoins with real money, then buy something with your coins, but you can only do that if you has real money in the first place.

    If bitcoin had a steady and stable value of exchange then it might serve a purpose. But it doesn't.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    A warning for crypto enthusiasts...

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crash-coinbase-cryptocurrency-exchanges-51621437348
    ... Trading crypto isn’t anything like stocks. Liquidity is relatively thin, and there are big spreads between the bid and ask prices. Commissions are steep. And as this morning’s outages indicate, the exchanges may not be equipped to handle a surge in volatility and sell orders—preventing investors from getting their money out fast.

    Bitcoin has been in a selloff for months and the downturn may be only be accelerating. The latest bad tidings came from China, which reiterated a ban on cryptocurrencies for domestic financial transactions. India also plans to ban cryptocurrencies and fine anyone trading or holding digital assets, according to a report in Reuters...

    Cryptocurrencies are the biggest and best pyramid scheme in history surely?
    You do not buy bitcoin to make money. You buy it to 'disappear' assets from your government.

    Which doesn't matter much if you live in Britain.

    But say you lived in Venezuela. Or China. Or Russia. Or anywhere that arbitrary confiscation of property by government is common.


    Deciding to disappear assets into a digital system mostly controlled by the Chinese seems a bit dumb to me.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,681

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    A warning for crypto enthusiasts...

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crash-coinbase-cryptocurrency-exchanges-51621437348
    ... Trading crypto isn’t anything like stocks. Liquidity is relatively thin, and there are big spreads between the bid and ask prices. Commissions are steep. And as this morning’s outages indicate, the exchanges may not be equipped to handle a surge in volatility and sell orders—preventing investors from getting their money out fast.

    Bitcoin has been in a selloff for months and the downturn may be only be accelerating. The latest bad tidings came from China, which reiterated a ban on cryptocurrencies for domestic financial transactions. India also plans to ban cryptocurrencies and fine anyone trading or holding digital assets, according to a report in Reuters...

    Cryptocurrencies are the biggest and best pyramid scheme in history surely?
    You do not buy bitcoin to make money. You buy it to 'disappear' assets from your government.

    Which doesn't matter much if you live in Britain.

    But say you lived in Venezuela. Or China. Or Russia. Or anywhere that arbitrary confiscation of property by government is common.


    It does still require the bigger fool as a customer though.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,001
    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    ping said:

    Chameleon said:

    FWIW there does seem to be a real push from elements of the US to say that there are things out there doing stuff that we can't explain (from a former US President down), and moreover this has noticeably increased in intensity over the past 12 months.

    The question is why.

    Is it some sort of push to increase defence spending?

    Unlikely - there's no pushback to do so even without this.

    So why?

    Comedy value.
    Probably.

    However if the US had discovered (say) a radio signal or some other strong indicator of ET then I imagine they'd be really concerned as to how it might play. In that circumstance perhaps they'd roll out some weak (old and non genuine) stuff just to test the water. I have any such thing as a very low probability indeed, but it sort of fits the pattern, and one day (although perhaps not for many thousands of years) something will be found.

    Slightly more likely is that they want to spend more on space, and having some sort of unspecified threat allows some militarisation which would be completely unacceptable if the threat was only here on Earth.

    Anyway the ET aspect is most likely zero, nut there is just perhaps a politcal aspect.
    You don't even begin to explain why the Yankee political, military and journalistic establishment is behaving like this. I do not believe for a moment they would hype up an extra-terrestrial "threat" so as to "get more money for militarised space research". That's lunatic behaviour. These people, including Obama, are not lunatics
    I'm not explaining because I think all of this is very unlikely.
    With all due respect, that is limitlessly pathetic

    Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence

    That applies to both sides. Because any explanation for all this is gonna be crazy. How and why are all these highly-informed Americans acting so nuts, why push the narrative that it could be actual ALIENS?
    Due respect noted. Abuse disregarded. I suggested a plausible idea which as I made very clear I think is very unlikely. It is plausible though.

    Nobody is actually doing anything at all about this stuff because it is very likely fantasy. It's not impossible though and in the wildly unlikely event that there is something then we might tease out the possibilities.
    Sorry for the snappiness, but it is frustrating when you just don't address the question. If you don't believe it can possibly be aliens (and I totally get that, I find it very hard to believe myself) then you do have to explain why the US authorities are behaving as if they have evidence that this "could" be aliens

    Why would they even go down that road?
    1. There are plenty of unexplained things seen by military pilots over the last 50 years
    2. Obama made a joking comment on a TV show
    3. There have been a raft of videos from drones in the last couple of years that *may* show things

    These things may - or may not - be evidence of UFOs.

    In the old days, unexplained things were "god". Now, they're UFOs. In the future they may be specific alien races, and they may be some other part of science.

    It's great and exciting that we're talking about this stuff.

    But the only things we've seen that are genuinely highly supportive of alien intelligent life visiting us are those recent videos. And these videos are also the ones that are - to be blunt - the ones that are easiest to fake.

    I'd be incredibly excited if it turned out we weren't alone and were being visited by another intelligence. It would genuinely be the biggest, most exciting story in human history.

    But the evidence we have is not yet there.

    It's like attributing the Lisbon earthquake of 1755 to God's displeasure. Yes, something happened. Yes, God's displeasure is an explanation. But it is not the only explanation. And it may very well not be the correct one.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,581
    Barack Obama talks about UFOs again on late night television

    https://www.khon2.com/news/national/barack-obama-talks-about-ufos-again-on-late-night-television/

    Reggie Watts
    All this talk about dem aliens with the you know, what are they, UAFs [UAPs] or whatever they call them, you know all the footage and I want to talk about… what is your, like I know that doesn’t necessarily mean aliens, it is just a UAF [UAP], but I was wondering if you have a theory about that?

    Barack Obama
    Well, when it when it comes to aliens, there’s some things I just can’t tell you on air.

    James Corden
    But you’ll tell us off air? Great!

    Barack Obama
    But the truth is that when I came into office, I asked, right, I was like alright, is there the lab somewhere where we’re keeping the alien specimens and space ship? And you know, they did a little bit of research and the answer was no. But what is true, and I’m actually being serious here, is that there are, there’s footage and records of objects in the skies, that we don’t know exactly what they are, we can’t explain how they moved, their trajectory. They did not have an easily explainable pattern. And so, you know I think that people still take seriously trying to investigate and figure out what that is. But I have nothing to report to you today. Unless like that, so here’s the question, Reggie might secretly be an alien, right? You remember in Men in Black? And so when he asks all these questions, he’s deflecting. Think about it.

    James Corden
    You are not the first person to have this thought.

    Barack Obama
    Do we know what he what he looks like behind those glasses? His eyes might blink in the wrong direction. So that’s a question that everybody can think about.

    James Corden
    Reggie, is that correct?

    Reggie Watts
    A hundy percenty.

    This is not the first time the former president has spoken on late night tv about UFOs. In December 2020, he answered a variety of unusual questions from late night talk show host Stephen Colbert. One of those questions was about UFOs.

    More recently, former President George W. Bush talked with Jimmy Kimmel about UFOs. Kimmel showed Mr. Bush the night vision video filmmaker Jeremy Corbell published. Kimmel then asked if the former president would be surprised if we were visited by creatures from another planet. President Bush quickly and enthusiastically said, “Yeah!”

    SSI2 - May I hazard a guess, that members of the former POTUS Club (#45 need not apply) are under the impression, that riffing about space aliens on TV is way more likely to generate positive feedback across the demographic & ideological spectrum, that discussing terrestrial aliens or other earth-bound political issues & controversies. INCLUDING those that can be traced back to their own administrations?
  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    ping said:

    Chameleon said:

    FWIW there does seem to be a real push from elements of the US to say that there are things out there doing stuff that we can't explain (from a former US President down), and moreover this has noticeably increased in intensity over the past 12 months.

    The question is why.

    Is it some sort of push to increase defence spending?

    Unlikely - there's no pushback to do so even without this.

    So why?

    Comedy value.
    Probably.

    However if the US had discovered (say) a radio signal or some other strong indicator of ET then I imagine they'd be really concerned as to how it might play. In that circumstance perhaps they'd roll out some weak (old and non genuine) stuff just to test the water. I have any such thing as a very low probability indeed, but it sort of fits the pattern, and one day (although perhaps not for many thousands of years) something will be found.

    Slightly more likely is that they want to spend more on space, and having some sort of unspecified threat allows some militarisation which would be completely unacceptable if the threat was only here on Earth.

    Anyway the ET aspect is most likely zero, nut there is just perhaps a politcal aspect.
    You don't even begin to explain why the Yankee political, military and journalistic establishment is behaving like this. I do not believe for a moment they would hype up an extra-terrestrial "threat" so as to "get more money for militarised space research". That's lunatic behaviour. These people, including Obama, are not lunatics
    I'm not explaining because I think all of this is very unlikely.
    With all due respect, that is limitlessly pathetic

    Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence

    That applies to both sides. Because any explanation for all this is gonna be crazy. How and why are all these highly-informed Americans acting so nuts, why push the narrative that it could be actual ALIENS?
    Due respect noted. Abuse disregarded. I suggested a plausible idea which as I made very clear I think is very unlikely. It is plausible though.

    Nobody is actually doing anything at all about this stuff because it is very likely fantasy. It's not impossible though and in the wildly unlikely event that there is something then we might tease out the possibilities.
    Sorry for the snappiness, but it is frustrating when you just don't address the question. If you don't believe it can possibly be aliens (and I totally get that, I find it very hard to believe myself) then you do have to explain why the US authorities are behaving as if they have evidence that this "could" be aliens

    Why would they even go down that road?
    1. There are plenty of unexplained things seen by military pilots over the last 50 years
    2. Obama made a joking comment on a TV show
    3. There have been a raft of videos from drones in the last couple of years that *may* show things

    These things may - or may not - be evidence of UFOs.

    In the old days, unexplained things were "god". Now, they're UFOs. In the future they may be specific alien races, and they may be some other part of science.

    It's great and exciting that we're talking about this stuff.

    But the only things we've seen that are genuinely highly supportive of alien intelligent life visiting us are those recent videos. And these videos are also the ones that are - to be blunt - the ones that are easiest to fake.

    I'd be incredibly excited if it turned out we weren't alone and were being visited by another intelligence. It would genuinely be the biggest, most exciting story in human history.

    But the evidence we have is not yet there.

    It's like attributing the Lisbon earthquake of 1755 to God's displeasure. Yes, something happened. Yes, God's displeasure is an explanation. But it is not the only explanation. And it may very well not be the correct one.
    So why are they all saying it Robert?
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    A warning for crypto enthusiasts...

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crash-coinbase-cryptocurrency-exchanges-51621437348
    ... Trading crypto isn’t anything like stocks. Liquidity is relatively thin, and there are big spreads between the bid and ask prices. Commissions are steep. And as this morning’s outages indicate, the exchanges may not be equipped to handle a surge in volatility and sell orders—preventing investors from getting their money out fast.

    Bitcoin has been in a selloff for months and the downturn may be only be accelerating. The latest bad tidings came from China, which reiterated a ban on cryptocurrencies for domestic financial transactions. India also plans to ban cryptocurrencies and fine anyone trading or holding digital assets, according to a report in Reuters...

    Cryptocurrencies are the biggest and best pyramid scheme in history surely?
    South Seas bubble was more important.
    As a percentage of global capital, inflation adjusted, which is the bigger?

    The total crypto market capitalisation was US $2 trillion a few months ago. Obviously smaller now.
    Bitcoin is off 30% in the last fortnight!

    They’re nothing more than digital tulips.
    But @contrarian was convinced that the Definitely not a Ponzi Scheme Coin was only at the foothills of its rise.
    A Ponzi scheme offers returns or insurance, such as the UK welfare state. Bitcoin offers nothing. Except a measure of confidentiality.

  • Options
    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,960
    Following on from Sandy's earlier mention of House Martins, had a magnificent display this evening of two Hobbies doing a courtship soar on a thermal.

    This is no coincidence as Hobbies predate on House Martins, amongst other birds and insects, to the extent that Martins have a specific 'Hobby alarm call'.

    (Boring fact of note, The creator of a famous tabletop football game wanted to name his new game 'The Hobby' but the patent office would not let him. So instead he named it Subbuteo - which is the latin name for the Hobby)
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,267
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    ping said:

    Chameleon said:

    FWIW there does seem to be a real push from elements of the US to say that there are things out there doing stuff that we can't explain (from a former US President down), and moreover this has noticeably increased in intensity over the past 12 months.

    The question is why.

    Is it some sort of push to increase defence spending?

    Unlikely - there's no pushback to do so even without this.

    So why?

    Comedy value.
    Probably.

    However if the US had discovered (say) a radio signal or some other strong indicator of ET then I imagine they'd be really concerned as to how it might play. In that circumstance perhaps they'd roll out some weak (old and non genuine) stuff just to test the water. I have any such thing as a very low probability indeed, but it sort of fits the pattern, and one day (although perhaps not for many thousands of years) something will be found.

    Slightly more likely is that they want to spend more on space, and having some sort of unspecified threat allows some militarisation which would be completely unacceptable if the threat was only here on Earth.

    Anyway the ET aspect is most likely zero, nut there is just perhaps a politcal aspect.
    You don't even begin to explain why the Yankee political, military and journalistic establishment is behaving like this. I do not believe for a moment they would hype up an extra-terrestrial "threat" so as to "get more money for militarised space research". That's lunatic behaviour. These people, including Obama, are not lunatics
    I'm not explaining because I think all of this is very unlikely.
    With all due respect, that is limitlessly pathetic

    Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence

    That applies to both sides. Because any explanation for all this is gonna be crazy. How and why are all these highly-informed Americans acting so nuts, why push the narrative that it could be actual ALIENS?
    Due respect noted. Abuse disregarded. I suggested a plausible idea which as I made very clear I think is very unlikely. It is plausible though.

    Nobody is actually doing anything at all about this stuff because it is very likely fantasy. It's not impossible though and in the wildly unlikely event that there is something then we might tease out the possibilities.
    Sorry for the snappiness, but it is frustrating when you just don't address the question. If you don't believe it can possibly be aliens (and I totally get that, I find it very hard to believe myself) then you do have to explain why the US authorities are behaving as if they have evidence that this "could" be aliens

    Why would they even go down that road?
    1. There are plenty of unexplained things seen by military pilots over the last 50 years
    2. Obama made a joking comment on a TV show
    3. There have been a raft of videos from drones in the last couple of years that *may* show things

    These things may - or may not - be evidence of UFOs.

    In the old days, unexplained things were "god". Now, they're UFOs. In the future they may be specific alien races, and they may be some other part of science.

    It's great and exciting that we're talking about this stuff.

    But the only things we've seen that are genuinely highly supportive of alien intelligent life visiting us are those recent videos. And these videos are also the ones that are - to be blunt - the ones that are easiest to fake.

    I'd be incredibly excited if it turned out we weren't alone and were being visited by another intelligence. It would genuinely be the biggest, most exciting story in human history.

    But the evidence we have is not yet there.

    It's like attributing the Lisbon earthquake of 1755 to God's displeasure. Yes, something happened. Yes, God's displeasure is an explanation. But it is not the only explanation. And it may very well not be the correct one.
    Logical, but a bit dull!

    This is a fascinating interview with the "Tic Tac" pilot:

    "But to see something that could go from a hover with no rotor wash, no wings, no discernible propulsion…and you can see that on the IR. There’s no plume coming out of it. It’s just sitting there in space. And then to back that up with the coverage of what the radar was seeing. We don’t have, at least in modern, reactive propulsion – you know, suckers and blowers…jet engines – we don’t have the ability to react that quick and counter drag. I mean, this thing moved through the atmosphere like it just…like it, there was no constraints on it. It just did whatever it wanted to do."

    His interviewer concludes:

    "And for you dear listener, I leave this open. I don’t know what to tell ya. Prior to this interview, I would have told you there is no such thing as UFOs or extraterrestrial activity here in our atmosphere. But after listening to Commander Fravor’s story – and I was even on the ship that day. I don’t remember why I didn’t get more involved with it – but after looking him in the eye and hearing his explanation as you just did, I don’t know what to think. So, I’ll leave it up to you. Could be from somewhere else. It could be from another government or maybe our own.”

    https://www.ufojoe.net/fravor-technology-not-developed-on-this-planet


    His clear hints about a "cover up" are quite startling
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,267
    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    ping said:

    Chameleon said:

    FWIW there does seem to be a real push from elements of the US to say that there are things out there doing stuff that we can't explain (from a former US President down), and moreover this has noticeably increased in intensity over the past 12 months.

    The question is why.

    Is it some sort of push to increase defence spending?

    Unlikely - there's no pushback to do so even without this.

    So why?

    Comedy value.
    Probably.

    However if the US had discovered (say) a radio signal or some other strong indicator of ET then I imagine they'd be really concerned as to how it might play. In that circumstance perhaps they'd roll out some weak (old and non genuine) stuff just to test the water. I have any such thing as a very low probability indeed, but it sort of fits the pattern, and one day (although perhaps not for many thousands of years) something will be found.

    Slightly more likely is that they want to spend more on space, and having some sort of unspecified threat allows some militarisation which would be completely unacceptable if the threat was only here on Earth.

    Anyway the ET aspect is most likely zero, nut there is just perhaps a politcal aspect.
    You don't even begin to explain why the Yankee political, military and journalistic establishment is behaving like this. I do not believe for a moment they would hype up an extra-terrestrial "threat" so as to "get more money for militarised space research". That's lunatic behaviour. These people, including Obama, are not lunatics
    I'm not explaining because I think all of this is very unlikely.
    With all due respect, that is limitlessly pathetic

    Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence

    That applies to both sides. Because any explanation for all this is gonna be crazy. How and why are all these highly-informed Americans acting so nuts, why push the narrative that it could be actual ALIENS?
    Due respect noted. Abuse disregarded. I suggested a plausible idea which as I made very clear I think is very unlikely. It is plausible though.

    Nobody is actually doing anything at all about this stuff because it is very likely fantasy. It's not impossible though and in the wildly unlikely event that there is something then we might tease out the possibilities.
    Sorry for the snappiness, but it is frustrating when you just don't address the question. If you don't believe it can possibly be aliens (and I totally get that, I find it very hard to believe myself) then you do have to explain why the US authorities are behaving as if they have evidence that this "could" be aliens

    Why would they even go down that road?
    I believe completely that it could be aliens, but I assign that a very low probability (very low indeed). If we wait long enough I assign a very high probability to us finding intelligent life elsewhere. Long enough might be millions of years though.

    Overall I have no idea why the US might be doing this. All I can think of it is in order to change the political agenda with regards to what happens in space in the future. There's a tiny possibility that it might be that they've actually found something. Both of these reasons - small chance and tiny chance I think make sense as I've represented them. Clearly though they are, so far as I am concerned, possibilities rather than anything likely to be true.
    Fair enough. The mystery abides
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,786
    edited May 2021
    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    ping said:

    Chameleon said:

    FWIW there does seem to be a real push from elements of the US to say that there are things out there doing stuff that we can't explain (from a former US President down), and moreover this has noticeably increased in intensity over the past 12 months.

    The question is why.

    Is it some sort of push to increase defence spending?

    Unlikely - there's no pushback to do so even without this.

    So why?

    Comedy value.
    Probably.

    However if the US had discovered (say) a radio signal or some other strong indicator of ET then I imagine they'd be really concerned as to how it might play. In that circumstance perhaps they'd roll out some weak (old and non genuine) stuff just to test the water. I have any such thing as a very low probability indeed, but it sort of fits the pattern, and one day (although perhaps not for many thousands of years) something will be found.

    Slightly more likely is that they want to spend more on space, and having some sort of unspecified threat allows some militarisation which would be completely unacceptable if the threat was only here on Earth.

    Anyway the ET aspect is most likely zero, nut there is just perhaps a politcal aspect.
    You don't even begin to explain why the Yankee political, military and journalistic establishment is behaving like this. I do not believe for a moment they would hype up an extra-terrestrial "threat" so as to "get more money for militarised space research". That's lunatic behaviour. These people, including Obama, are not lunatics
    I'm not explaining because I think all of this is very unlikely.
    With all due respect, that is limitlessly pathetic

    Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence

    That applies to both sides. Because any explanation for all this is gonna be crazy. How and why are all these highly-informed Americans acting so nuts, why push the narrative that it could be actual ALIENS?
    Due respect noted. Abuse disregarded. I suggested a plausible idea which as I made very clear I think is very unlikely. It is plausible though.

    Nobody is actually doing anything at all about this stuff because it is very likely fantasy. It's not impossible though and in the wildly unlikely event that there is something then we might tease out the possibilities.
    Sorry for the snappiness, but it is frustrating when you just don't address the question. If you don't believe it can possibly be aliens (and I totally get that, I find it very hard to believe myself) then you do have to explain why the US authorities are behaving as if they have evidence that this "could" be aliens

    Why would they even go down that road?
    I believe completely that it could be aliens, but I assign that a very low probability (very low indeed). If we wait long enough I assign a very high probability to us finding intelligent life elsewhere. Long enough might be millions of years though.

    Overall I have no idea why the US might be doing this. All I can think of it is in order to change the political agenda with regards to what happens in space in the future. There's a tiny possibility that it might be that they've actually found something. Both of these reasons - small chance and tiny chance I think make sense as I've represented them. Clearly though they are, so far as I am concerned, possibilities rather than anything likely to be true.
    Fair enough. The mystery abides
    It does. What do you have to offer in terms of ideas?

    PS. Absolutely mad and unthought out ideas are fine in mine book. I'll not criticise.
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,581
    moonshine said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    ping said:

    Chameleon said:

    FWIW there does seem to be a real push from elements of the US to say that there are things out there doing stuff that we can't explain (from a former US President down), and moreover this has noticeably increased in intensity over the past 12 months.

    The question is why.

    Is it some sort of push to increase defence spending?

    Unlikely - there's no pushback to do so even without this.

    So why?

    Comedy value.
    Probably.

    However if the US had discovered (say) a radio signal or some other strong indicator of ET then I imagine they'd be really concerned as to how it might play. In that circumstance perhaps they'd roll out some weak (old and non genuine) stuff just to test the water. I have any such thing as a very low probability indeed, but it sort of fits the pattern, and one day (although perhaps not for many thousands of years) something will be found.

    Slightly more likely is that they want to spend more on space, and having some sort of unspecified threat allows some militarisation which would be completely unacceptable if the threat was only here on Earth.

    Anyway the ET aspect is most likely zero, nut there is just perhaps a politcal aspect.
    You don't even begin to explain why the Yankee political, military and journalistic establishment is behaving like this. I do not believe for a moment they would hype up an extra-terrestrial "threat" so as to "get more money for militarised space research". That's lunatic behaviour. These people, including Obama, are not lunatics
    I'm not explaining because I think all of this is very unlikely.
    With all due respect, that is limitlessly pathetic

    Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence

    That applies to both sides. Because any explanation for all this is gonna be crazy. How and why are all these highly-informed Americans acting so nuts, why push the narrative that it could be actual ALIENS?
    Due respect noted. Abuse disregarded. I suggested a plausible idea which as I made very clear I think is very unlikely. It is plausible though.

    Nobody is actually doing anything at all about this stuff because it is very likely fantasy. It's not impossible though and in the wildly unlikely event that there is something then we might tease out the possibilities.
    Sorry for the snappiness, but it is frustrating when you just don't address the question. If you don't believe it can possibly be aliens (and I totally get that, I find it very hard to believe myself) then you do have to explain why the US authorities are behaving as if they have evidence that this "could" be aliens

    Why would they even go down that road?
    1. There are plenty of unexplained things seen by military pilots over the last 50 years
    2. Obama made a joking comment on a TV show
    3. There have been a raft of videos from drones in the last couple of years that *may* show things

    These things may - or may not - be evidence of UFOs.

    In the old days, unexplained things were "god". Now, they're UFOs. In the future they may be specific alien races, and they may be some other part of science.

    It's great and exciting that we're talking about this stuff.

    But the only things we've seen that are genuinely highly supportive of alien intelligent life visiting us are those recent videos. And these videos are also the ones that are - to be blunt - the ones that are easiest to fake.

    I'd be incredibly excited if it turned out we weren't alone and were being visited by another intelligence. It would genuinely be the biggest, most exciting story in human history.

    But the evidence we have is not yet there.

    It's like attributing the Lisbon earthquake of 1755 to God's displeasure. Yes, something happened. Yes, God's displeasure is an explanation. But it is not the only explanation. And it may very well not be the correct one.
    So why are they all saying it Robert?
    "[A]ll" are NOT "saying it". And even "they" who are, aren't "saying" it all the time.

    Rather, it is you (and others) projecting your own thoughts (which we've all had) across space & time.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    A warning for crypto enthusiasts...

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crash-coinbase-cryptocurrency-exchanges-51621437348
    ... Trading crypto isn’t anything like stocks. Liquidity is relatively thin, and there are big spreads between the bid and ask prices. Commissions are steep. And as this morning’s outages indicate, the exchanges may not be equipped to handle a surge in volatility and sell orders—preventing investors from getting their money out fast.

    Bitcoin has been in a selloff for months and the downturn may be only be accelerating. The latest bad tidings came from China, which reiterated a ban on cryptocurrencies for domestic financial transactions. India also plans to ban cryptocurrencies and fine anyone trading or holding digital assets, according to a report in Reuters...

    Cryptocurrencies are the biggest and best pyramid scheme in history surely?
    South Seas bubble was more important.
    As a percentage of global capital, inflation adjusted, which is the bigger?

    The total crypto market capitalisation was US $2 trillion a few months ago. Obviously smaller now.
    Bitcoin is off 30% in the last fortnight!

    They’re nothing more than digital tulips.
    But @contrarian was convinced that the Definitely not a Ponzi Scheme Coin was only at the foothills of its rise.
    A Ponzi scheme offers returns or insurance, such as the UK welfare state. Bitcoin offers nothing. Except a measure of confidentiality.

    Yeah cryptos aren't a ponzi or scam. Some of the stuff around them is mind, but the actual currencies are - well you buy 1 Bitcoin, you own one bitcoin. The value of that particular bitcoin will go up and down relative to other currencies the same as USD/GBP (Albeit loads more volatile).
    I'm suspicious of the adverts for "Earn 7% on your crpyto" - those feel scammy tbh...
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,267
    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    ping said:

    Chameleon said:

    FWIW there does seem to be a real push from elements of the US to say that there are things out there doing stuff that we can't explain (from a former US President down), and moreover this has noticeably increased in intensity over the past 12 months.

    The question is why.

    Is it some sort of push to increase defence spending?

    Unlikely - there's no pushback to do so even without this.

    So why?

    Comedy value.
    Probably.

    However if the US had discovered (say) a radio signal or some other strong indicator of ET then I imagine they'd be really concerned as to how it might play. In that circumstance perhaps they'd roll out some weak (old and non genuine) stuff just to test the water. I have any such thing as a very low probability indeed, but it sort of fits the pattern, and one day (although perhaps not for many thousands of years) something will be found.

    Slightly more likely is that they want to spend more on space, and having some sort of unspecified threat allows some militarisation which would be completely unacceptable if the threat was only here on Earth.

    Anyway the ET aspect is most likely zero, nut there is just perhaps a politcal aspect.
    You don't even begin to explain why the Yankee political, military and journalistic establishment is behaving like this. I do not believe for a moment they would hype up an extra-terrestrial "threat" so as to "get more money for militarised space research". That's lunatic behaviour. These people, including Obama, are not lunatics
    I'm not explaining because I think all of this is very unlikely.
    With all due respect, that is limitlessly pathetic

    Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence

    That applies to both sides. Because any explanation for all this is gonna be crazy. How and why are all these highly-informed Americans acting so nuts, why push the narrative that it could be actual ALIENS?
    Due respect noted. Abuse disregarded. I suggested a plausible idea which as I made very clear I think is very unlikely. It is plausible though.

    Nobody is actually doing anything at all about this stuff because it is very likely fantasy. It's not impossible though and in the wildly unlikely event that there is something then we might tease out the possibilities.
    Sorry for the snappiness, but it is frustrating when you just don't address the question. If you don't believe it can possibly be aliens (and I totally get that, I find it very hard to believe myself) then you do have to explain why the US authorities are behaving as if they have evidence that this "could" be aliens

    Why would they even go down that road?
    I believe completely that it could be aliens, but I assign that a very low probability (very low indeed). If we wait long enough I assign a very high probability to us finding intelligent life elsewhere. Long enough might be millions of years though.

    Overall I have no idea why the US might be doing this. All I can think of it is in order to change the political agenda with regards to what happens in space in the future. There's a tiny possibility that it might be that they've actually found something. Both of these reasons - small chance and tiny chance I think make sense as I've represented them. Clearly though they are, so far as I am concerned, possibilities rather than anything likely to be true.
    Who was it said ‘the most compelling evidence that there is intelligent life in the universe is that it’s never tried to contact us?’
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited May 2021
    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    ping said:

    Chameleon said:

    FWIW there does seem to be a real push from elements of the US to say that there are things out there doing stuff that we can't explain (from a former US President down), and moreover this has noticeably increased in intensity over the past 12 months.

    The question is why.

    Is it some sort of push to increase defence spending?

    Unlikely - there's no pushback to do so even without this.

    So why?

    Comedy value.
    Probably.

    However if the US had discovered (say) a radio signal or some other strong indicator of ET then I imagine they'd be really concerned as to how it might play. In that circumstance perhaps they'd roll out some weak (old and non genuine) stuff just to test the water. I have any such thing as a very low probability indeed, but it sort of fits the pattern, and one day (although perhaps not for many thousands of years) something will be found.

    Slightly more likely is that they want to spend more on space, and having some sort of unspecified threat allows some militarisation which would be completely unacceptable if the threat was only here on Earth.

    Anyway the ET aspect is most likely zero, nut there is just perhaps a politcal aspect.
    You don't even begin to explain why the Yankee political, military and journalistic establishment is behaving like this. I do not believe for a moment they would hype up an extra-terrestrial "threat" so as to "get more money for militarised space research". That's lunatic behaviour. These people, including Obama, are not lunatics
    I'm not explaining because I think all of this is very unlikely.
    With all due respect, that is limitlessly pathetic

    Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence

    That applies to both sides. Because any explanation for all this is gonna be crazy. How and why are all these highly-informed Americans acting so nuts, why push the narrative that it could be actual ALIENS?
    Due respect noted. Abuse disregarded. I suggested a plausible idea which as I made very clear I think is very unlikely. It is plausible though.

    Nobody is actually doing anything at all about this stuff because it is very likely fantasy. It's not impossible though and in the wildly unlikely event that there is something then we might tease out the possibilities.
    Sorry for the snappiness, but it is frustrating when you just don't address the question. If you don't believe it can possibly be aliens (and I totally get that, I find it very hard to believe myself) then you do have to explain why the US authorities are behaving as if they have evidence that this "could" be aliens

    Why would they even go down that road?
    I believe completely that it could be aliens, but I assign that a very low probability (very low indeed). If we wait long enough I assign a very high probability to us finding intelligent life elsewhere. Long enough might be millions of years though.

    Overall I have no idea why the US might be doing this. All I can think of it is in order to change the political agenda with regards to what happens in space in the future. There's a tiny possibility that it might be that they've actually found something. Both of these reasons - small chance and tiny chance I think make sense as I've represented them. Clearly though they are, so far as I am concerned, possibilities rather than anything likely to be true.
    Who was it said ‘the most compelling evidence that there is intelligent life in the universe is that it’s never tried to contact us?’
    Sounds like one of Reagan's quips ?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    A warning for crypto enthusiasts...

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crash-coinbase-cryptocurrency-exchanges-51621437348
    ... Trading crypto isn’t anything like stocks. Liquidity is relatively thin, and there are big spreads between the bid and ask prices. Commissions are steep. And as this morning’s outages indicate, the exchanges may not be equipped to handle a surge in volatility and sell orders—preventing investors from getting their money out fast.

    Bitcoin has been in a selloff for months and the downturn may be only be accelerating. The latest bad tidings came from China, which reiterated a ban on cryptocurrencies for domestic financial transactions. India also plans to ban cryptocurrencies and fine anyone trading or holding digital assets, according to a report in Reuters...

    Cryptocurrencies are the biggest and best pyramid scheme in history surely?
    South Seas bubble was more important.
    As a percentage of global capital, inflation adjusted, which is the bigger?

    The total crypto market capitalisation was US $2 trillion a few months ago. Obviously smaller now.
    Bitcoin is off 30% in the last fortnight!

    They’re nothing more than digital tulips.
    But @contrarian was convinced that the Definitely not a Ponzi Scheme Coin was only at the foothills of its rise.
    A Ponzi scheme offers returns or insurance, such as the UK welfare state. Bitcoin offers nothing. Except a measure of confidentiality.

    No a Ponzi scheme supposedly offers returns, but without guaranteed returns or insurance.

    Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme. Buy into it because the value is going to go up, so you can make money when it does go up. The only reason it was going up was because there were enough gullible idiots before you who thought it was going up (like all Ponzi schemes, getting in and out early enough can be profitable) but if you're the gullible idiot still holding it when the music stops? Ouch.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,267
    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    ping said:

    Chameleon said:

    FWIW there does seem to be a real push from elements of the US to say that there are things out there doing stuff that we can't explain (from a former US President down), and moreover this has noticeably increased in intensity over the past 12 months.

    The question is why.

    Is it some sort of push to increase defence spending?

    Unlikely - there's no pushback to do so even without this.

    So why?

    Comedy value.
    Probably.

    However if the US had discovered (say) a radio signal or some other strong indicator of ET then I imagine they'd be really concerned as to how it might play. In that circumstance perhaps they'd roll out some weak (old and non genuine) stuff just to test the water. I have any such thing as a very low probability indeed, but it sort of fits the pattern, and one day (although perhaps not for many thousands of years) something will be found.

    Slightly more likely is that they want to spend more on space, and having some sort of unspecified threat allows some militarisation which would be completely unacceptable if the threat was only here on Earth.

    Anyway the ET aspect is most likely zero, nut there is just perhaps a politcal aspect.
    You don't even begin to explain why the Yankee political, military and journalistic establishment is behaving like this. I do not believe for a moment they would hype up an extra-terrestrial "threat" so as to "get more money for militarised space research". That's lunatic behaviour. These people, including Obama, are not lunatics
    I'm not explaining because I think all of this is very unlikely.
    With all due respect, that is limitlessly pathetic

    Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence

    That applies to both sides. Because any explanation for all this is gonna be crazy. How and why are all these highly-informed Americans acting so nuts, why push the narrative that it could be actual ALIENS?
    Due respect noted. Abuse disregarded. I suggested a plausible idea which as I made very clear I think is very unlikely. It is plausible though.

    Nobody is actually doing anything at all about this stuff because it is very likely fantasy. It's not impossible though and in the wildly unlikely event that there is something then we might tease out the possibilities.
    Sorry for the snappiness, but it is frustrating when you just don't address the question. If you don't believe it can possibly be aliens (and I totally get that, I find it very hard to believe myself) then you do have to explain why the US authorities are behaving as if they have evidence that this "could" be aliens

    Why would they even go down that road?
    I believe completely that it could be aliens, but I assign that a very low probability (very low indeed). If we wait long enough I assign a very high probability to us finding intelligent life elsewhere. Long enough might be millions of years though.

    Overall I have no idea why the US might be doing this. All I can think of it is in order to change the political agenda with regards to what happens in space in the future. There's a tiny possibility that it might be that they've actually found something. Both of these reasons - small chance and tiny chance I think make sense as I've represented them. Clearly though they are, so far as I am concerned, possibilities rather than anything likely to be true.
    Who was it said ‘the most compelling evidence that there is intelligent life in the universe is that it’s never tried to contact us?’
    Sounds like one of Reagan's quips ?
    It’s possible. I don’t actually remember who said it so it wasn’t a test!
  • Options
    SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 15,581
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    A warning for crypto enthusiasts...

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crash-coinbase-cryptocurrency-exchanges-51621437348
    ... Trading crypto isn’t anything like stocks. Liquidity is relatively thin, and there are big spreads between the bid and ask prices. Commissions are steep. And as this morning’s outages indicate, the exchanges may not be equipped to handle a surge in volatility and sell orders—preventing investors from getting their money out fast.

    Bitcoin has been in a selloff for months and the downturn may be only be accelerating. The latest bad tidings came from China, which reiterated a ban on cryptocurrencies for domestic financial transactions. India also plans to ban cryptocurrencies and fine anyone trading or holding digital assets, according to a report in Reuters...

    Cryptocurrencies are the biggest and best pyramid scheme in history surely?
    South Seas bubble was more important.
    As a percentage of global capital, inflation adjusted, which is the bigger?

    The total crypto market capitalisation was US $2 trillion a few months ago. Obviously smaller now.
    Bitcoin is off 30% in the last fortnight!

    They’re nothing more than digital tulips.
    But @contrarian was convinced that the Definitely not a Ponzi Scheme Coin was only at the foothills of its rise.
    A Ponzi scheme offers returns or insurance, such as the UK welfare state. Bitcoin offers nothing. Except a measure of confidentiality.

    Yeah cryptos aren't a ponzi or scam. Some of the stuff around them is mind, but the actual currencies are - well you buy 1 Bitcoin, you own one bitcoin. The value of that particular bitcoin will go up and down relative to other currencies the same as USD/GBP (Albeit loads more volatile).
    I'm suspicious of the adverts for "Earn 7% on your crpyto" - those feel scammy tbh...
    Really?

    NYT ($) Elon Musk impostors scammed $2 million in cryptocurrency, U.S. says

    nvestors lost $2 million in six months to fraudsters who impersonated Musk, the Federal Trade Commission said in a report released Monday that was meant to draw attention to a spike in cryptocurrency scams.

    The commission found that nearly 7,000 people lost a reported $80 million overall from October through March as part of various scams targeting investors in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin, a nebulous marketplace that Musk has bullishly promoted on Twitter. The median amount that they lost was $1,900, according to the commission.

    The spate of fraud cases — a nearly 1,000% increase compared with the same period the previous year, the report said — came as the price of Bitcoin and Dogecoin soared toward record highs.

    “All of this plays right into the hands of scammers,” the commission’s report said. “They blend into the scene with claims that can seem plausible because cryptocurrency is unknown territory for many people.”

    A spokeswoman for the commission said in an email Tuesday that officials had received 133 complaints from people claiming to have been duped by the impersonators. They said they had seen videos on YouTube with text running across the screen alerting them to a supposed “giveaway” from Musk, the spokeswoman said.

    SSI2 - here is link to the Federal Trade Commission report:

    https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/blogs/data-spotlight/2021/05/cryptocurrency-buzz-drives-record-investment-scam-losses
  • Options
    OmniumOmnium Posts: 9,786
    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    ping said:

    Chameleon said:

    FWIW there does seem to be a real push from elements of the US to say that there are things out there doing stuff that we can't explain (from a former US President down), and moreover this has noticeably increased in intensity over the past 12 months.

    The question is why.

    Is it some sort of push to increase defence spending?

    Unlikely - there's no pushback to do so even without this.

    So why?

    Comedy value.
    Probably.

    However if the US had discovered (say) a radio signal or some other strong indicator of ET then I imagine they'd be really concerned as to how it might play. In that circumstance perhaps they'd roll out some weak (old and non genuine) stuff just to test the water. I have any such thing as a very low probability indeed, but it sort of fits the pattern, and one day (although perhaps not for many thousands of years) something will be found.

    Slightly more likely is that they want to spend more on space, and having some sort of unspecified threat allows some militarisation which would be completely unacceptable if the threat was only here on Earth.

    Anyway the ET aspect is most likely zero, nut there is just perhaps a politcal aspect.
    You don't even begin to explain why the Yankee political, military and journalistic establishment is behaving like this. I do not believe for a moment they would hype up an extra-terrestrial "threat" so as to "get more money for militarised space research". That's lunatic behaviour. These people, including Obama, are not lunatics
    I'm not explaining because I think all of this is very unlikely.
    With all due respect, that is limitlessly pathetic

    Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence

    That applies to both sides. Because any explanation for all this is gonna be crazy. How and why are all these highly-informed Americans acting so nuts, why push the narrative that it could be actual ALIENS?
    Due respect noted. Abuse disregarded. I suggested a plausible idea which as I made very clear I think is very unlikely. It is plausible though.

    Nobody is actually doing anything at all about this stuff because it is very likely fantasy. It's not impossible though and in the wildly unlikely event that there is something then we might tease out the possibilities.
    Sorry for the snappiness, but it is frustrating when you just don't address the question. If you don't believe it can possibly be aliens (and I totally get that, I find it very hard to believe myself) then you do have to explain why the US authorities are behaving as if they have evidence that this "could" be aliens

    Why would they even go down that road?
    I believe completely that it could be aliens, but I assign that a very low probability (very low indeed). If we wait long enough I assign a very high probability to us finding intelligent life elsewhere. Long enough might be millions of years though.

    Overall I have no idea why the US might be doing this. All I can think of it is in order to change the political agenda with regards to what happens in space in the future. There's a tiny possibility that it might be that they've actually found something. Both of these reasons - small chance and tiny chance I think make sense as I've represented them. Clearly though they are, so far as I am concerned, possibilities rather than anything likely to be true.
    Who was it said ‘the most compelling evidence that there is intelligent life in the universe is that it’s never tried to contact us?’
    Not heard that before, so I guess you did.

    It is of course a compelling argument, but then the simulation argument is compelling too. It's all very odd.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    A warning for crypto enthusiasts...

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crash-coinbase-cryptocurrency-exchanges-51621437348
    ... Trading crypto isn’t anything like stocks. Liquidity is relatively thin, and there are big spreads between the bid and ask prices. Commissions are steep. And as this morning’s outages indicate, the exchanges may not be equipped to handle a surge in volatility and sell orders—preventing investors from getting their money out fast.

    Bitcoin has been in a selloff for months and the downturn may be only be accelerating. The latest bad tidings came from China, which reiterated a ban on cryptocurrencies for domestic financial transactions. India also plans to ban cryptocurrencies and fine anyone trading or holding digital assets, according to a report in Reuters...

    Cryptocurrencies are the biggest and best pyramid scheme in history surely?
    South Seas bubble was more important.
    As a percentage of global capital, inflation adjusted, which is the bigger?

    The total crypto market capitalisation was US $2 trillion a few months ago. Obviously smaller now.
    Bitcoin is off 30% in the last fortnight!

    They’re nothing more than digital tulips.
    But @contrarian was convinced that the Definitely not a Ponzi Scheme Coin was only at the foothills of its rise.
    A Ponzi scheme offers returns or insurance, such as the UK welfare state. Bitcoin offers nothing. Except a measure of confidentiality.

    Yeah cryptos aren't a ponzi or scam. Some of the stuff around them is mind, but the actual currencies are - well you buy 1 Bitcoin, you own one bitcoin. The value of that particular bitcoin will go up and down relative to other currencies the same as USD/GBP (Albeit loads more volatile).
    I'm suspicious of the adverts for "Earn 7% on your crpyto" - those feel scammy tbh...
    Really?

    NYT ($) Elon Musk impostors scammed $2 million in cryptocurrency, U.S. says

    nvestors lost $2 million in six months to fraudsters who impersonated Musk, the Federal Trade Commission said in a report released Monday that was meant to draw attention to a spike in cryptocurrency scams.

    The commission found that nearly 7,000 people lost a reported $80 million overall from October through March as part of various scams targeting investors in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin, a nebulous marketplace that Musk has bullishly promoted on Twitter. The median amount that they lost was $1,900, according to the commission.

    The spate of fraud cases — a nearly 1,000% increase compared with the same period the previous year, the report said — came as the price of Bitcoin and Dogecoin soared toward record highs.

    “All of this plays right into the hands of scammers,” the commission’s report said. “They blend into the scene with claims that can seem plausible because cryptocurrency is unknown territory for many people.”

    A spokeswoman for the commission said in an email Tuesday that officials had received 133 complaints from people claiming to have been duped by the impersonators. They said they had seen videos on YouTube with text running across the screen alerting them to a supposed “giveaway” from Musk, the spokeswoman said.

    SSI2 - here is link to the Federal Trade Commission report:

    https://www.ftc.gov/news-events/blogs/data-spotlight/2021/05/cryptocurrency-buzz-drives-record-investment-scam-losses
    Yes, that's what I've just said - there are loads of scams and so forth surrounding cryptocurrencies, but if you buy 1 ETH on Coinbase or Binance.com then you fundamentally own 1 Eth.
    If you send 1 Eth to Elonmuskimposter3209943049034 from twitter in the hopes he'll send you 10 Eth in a week, well you've been scammed.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,267
    Omnium said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    ping said:

    Chameleon said:

    FWIW there does seem to be a real push from elements of the US to say that there are things out there doing stuff that we can't explain (from a former US President down), and moreover this has noticeably increased in intensity over the past 12 months.

    The question is why.

    Is it some sort of push to increase defence spending?

    Unlikely - there's no pushback to do so even without this.

    So why?

    Comedy value.
    Probably.

    However if the US had discovered (say) a radio signal or some other strong indicator of ET then I imagine they'd be really concerned as to how it might play. In that circumstance perhaps they'd roll out some weak (old and non genuine) stuff just to test the water. I have any such thing as a very low probability indeed, but it sort of fits the pattern, and one day (although perhaps not for many thousands of years) something will be found.

    Slightly more likely is that they want to spend more on space, and having some sort of unspecified threat allows some militarisation which would be completely unacceptable if the threat was only here on Earth.

    Anyway the ET aspect is most likely zero, nut there is just perhaps a politcal aspect.
    You don't even begin to explain why the Yankee political, military and journalistic establishment is behaving like this. I do not believe for a moment they would hype up an extra-terrestrial "threat" so as to "get more money for militarised space research". That's lunatic behaviour. These people, including Obama, are not lunatics
    I'm not explaining because I think all of this is very unlikely.
    With all due respect, that is limitlessly pathetic

    Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence

    That applies to both sides. Because any explanation for all this is gonna be crazy. How and why are all these highly-informed Americans acting so nuts, why push the narrative that it could be actual ALIENS?
    Due respect noted. Abuse disregarded. I suggested a plausible idea which as I made very clear I think is very unlikely. It is plausible though.

    Nobody is actually doing anything at all about this stuff because it is very likely fantasy. It's not impossible though and in the wildly unlikely event that there is something then we might tease out the possibilities.
    Sorry for the snappiness, but it is frustrating when you just don't address the question. If you don't believe it can possibly be aliens (and I totally get that, I find it very hard to believe myself) then you do have to explain why the US authorities are behaving as if they have evidence that this "could" be aliens

    Why would they even go down that road?
    I believe completely that it could be aliens, but I assign that a very low probability (very low indeed). If we wait long enough I assign a very high probability to us finding intelligent life elsewhere. Long enough might be millions of years though.

    Overall I have no idea why the US might be doing this. All I can think of it is in order to change the political agenda with regards to what happens in space in the future. There's a tiny possibility that it might be that they've actually found something. Both of these reasons - small chance and tiny chance I think make sense as I've represented them. Clearly though they are, so far as I am concerned, possibilities rather than anything likely to be true.
    Who was it said ‘the most compelling evidence that there is intelligent life in the universe is that it’s never tried to contact us?’
    Not heard that before, so I guess you did.

    It is of course a compelling argument, but then the simulation argument is compelling too. It's all very odd.
    If Wired can be trusted, it was Bill Watterson:

    https://www.wired.com/2010/08/are-we-alone-in-the-universe/
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929

    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    A warning for crypto enthusiasts...

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crash-coinbase-cryptocurrency-exchanges-51621437348
    ... Trading crypto isn’t anything like stocks. Liquidity is relatively thin, and there are big spreads between the bid and ask prices. Commissions are steep. And as this morning’s outages indicate, the exchanges may not be equipped to handle a surge in volatility and sell orders—preventing investors from getting their money out fast.

    Bitcoin has been in a selloff for months and the downturn may be only be accelerating. The latest bad tidings came from China, which reiterated a ban on cryptocurrencies for domestic financial transactions. India also plans to ban cryptocurrencies and fine anyone trading or holding digital assets, according to a report in Reuters...

    Cryptocurrencies are the biggest and best pyramid scheme in history surely?
    South Seas bubble was more important.
    As a percentage of global capital, inflation adjusted, which is the bigger?

    The total crypto market capitalisation was US $2 trillion a few months ago. Obviously smaller now.
    Bitcoin is off 30% in the last fortnight!

    They’re nothing more than digital tulips.
    But @contrarian was convinced that the Definitely not a Ponzi Scheme Coin was only at the foothills of its rise.
    A Ponzi scheme offers returns or insurance, such as the UK welfare state. Bitcoin offers nothing. Except a measure of confidentiality.

    Yeah cryptos aren't a ponzi or scam. Some of the stuff around them is mind, but the actual currencies are - well you buy 1 Bitcoin, you own one bitcoin. The value of that particular bitcoin will go up and down relative to other currencies the same as USD/GBP (Albeit loads more volatile).
    I'm suspicious of the adverts for "Earn 7% on your crpyto" - those feel scammy tbh...
    Really?

    NYT ($) Elon Musk impostors scammed $2 million in cryptocurrency, U.S. says

    Investors lost $2 million in six months to fraudsters
    Also real misuse of the word "investor" here. "Fuckwits" a better description.
  • Options
    contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited May 2021

    Sandpit said:

    Foxy said:

    Omnium said:

    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    A warning for crypto enthusiasts...

    https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-crash-coinbase-cryptocurrency-exchanges-51621437348
    ... Trading crypto isn’t anything like stocks. Liquidity is relatively thin, and there are big spreads between the bid and ask prices. Commissions are steep. And as this morning’s outages indicate, the exchanges may not be equipped to handle a surge in volatility and sell orders—preventing investors from getting their money out fast.

    Bitcoin has been in a selloff for months and the downturn may be only be accelerating. The latest bad tidings came from China, which reiterated a ban on cryptocurrencies for domestic financial transactions. India also plans to ban cryptocurrencies and fine anyone trading or holding digital assets, according to a report in Reuters...

    Cryptocurrencies are the biggest and best pyramid scheme in history surely?
    South Seas bubble was more important.
    As a percentage of global capital, inflation adjusted, which is the bigger?

    The total crypto market capitalisation was US $2 trillion a few months ago. Obviously smaller now.
    Bitcoin is off 30% in the last fortnight!

    They’re nothing more than digital tulips.
    But @contrarian was convinced that the Definitely not a Ponzi Scheme Coin was only at the foothills of its rise.
    A Ponzi scheme offers returns or insurance, such as the UK welfare state. Bitcoin offers nothing. Except a measure of confidentiality.

    No a Ponzi scheme supposedly offers returns, but without guaranteed returns or insurance.

    Bitcoin is a Ponzi scheme. Buy into it because the value is going to go up, so you can make money when it does go up. The only reason it was going up was because there were enough gullible idiots before you who thought it was going up (like all Ponzi schemes, getting in and out early enough can be profitable) but if you're the gullible idiot still holding it when the music stops? Ouch.
    Don't buy it to make money. Let's say you squirrelled away a few quid of bitcoin every month for your life. You shuffle off this mortal coil. In your will you leave, say, a million quid of assets plus a bitcoin account and password confidentially given.

    The revenue stings your beneficiaries for death duties on the estate. They claim there's another million in the bitcoin account and they want the tax.

    If they don't have the details of the account, which they won't, your beneficiaries can tell them to go f8ck themselves.

  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 24,983
    MaxPB said:

    Looks like the UK is set to get a Tesla gigafactory, I expect lots and lots of ministers to be relieved as it signals to the rest of the car industry that it's time to invest in the UK to stay competitive here. From what I understand it's going to be an absolutely giant one too, not just for domestic production but for exports to the EU and other territories.

    A Tesla factory not the Blyth attempt? any idea where in the UK?
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    ping said:

    Chameleon said:

    FWIW there does seem to be a real push from elements of the US to say that there are things out there doing stuff that we can't explain (from a former US President down), and moreover this has noticeably increased in intensity over the past 12 months.

    The question is why.

    Is it some sort of push to increase defence spending?

    Unlikely - there's no pushback to do so even without this.

    So why?

    Comedy value.
    Probably.

    However if the US had discovered (say) a radio signal or some other strong indicator of ET then I imagine they'd be really concerned as to how it might play. In that circumstance perhaps they'd roll out some weak (old and non genuine) stuff just to test the water. I have any such thing as a very low probability indeed, but it sort of fits the pattern, and one day (although perhaps not for many thousands of years) something will be found.

    Slightly more likely is that they want to spend more on space, and having some sort of unspecified threat allows some militarisation which would be completely unacceptable if the threat was only here on Earth.

    Anyway the ET aspect is most likely zero, nut there is just perhaps a politcal aspect.
    You don't even begin to explain why the Yankee political, military and journalistic establishment is behaving like this. I do not believe for a moment they would hype up an extra-terrestrial "threat" so as to "get more money for militarised space research". That's lunatic behaviour. These people, including Obama, are not lunatics
    I'm not explaining because I think all of this is very unlikely.
    With all due respect, that is limitlessly pathetic

    Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence

    That applies to both sides. Because any explanation for all this is gonna be crazy. How and why are all these highly-informed Americans acting so nuts, why push the narrative that it could be actual ALIENS?
    Because they're not being nuts, only nutters on the internet are being nuts.

    Obama on a comedy show says that there are things that can't be explained (a truism, there are always things that can't be explained) - nutters run around like he just confirmed that Big Foot is hiding Nessie and ET.

    Things that can't be explained can include a many varied things: videos that are faked but nobody can debunk, or is going to be bothered to debunk - or illusions that can't be explained - or limited evidence that leaves a mystery that can't be answered - or the list goes on.

    Can't be explained doesn't mean God and doesn't mean aliens.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 47,267
    edited May 2021
    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    ping said:

    Chameleon said:

    FWIW there does seem to be a real push from elements of the US to say that there are things out there doing stuff that we can't explain (from a former US President down), and moreover this has noticeably increased in intensity over the past 12 months.

    The question is why.

    Is it some sort of push to increase defence spending?

    Unlikely - there's no pushback to do so even without this.

    So why?

    Comedy value.
    Probably.

    However if the US had discovered (say) a radio signal or some other strong indicator of ET then I imagine they'd be really concerned as to how it might play. In that circumstance perhaps they'd roll out some weak (old and non genuine) stuff just to test the water. I have any such thing as a very low probability indeed, but it sort of fits the pattern, and one day (although perhaps not for many thousands of years) something will be found.

    Slightly more likely is that they want to spend more on space, and having some sort of unspecified threat allows some militarisation which would be completely unacceptable if the threat was only here on Earth.

    Anyway the ET aspect is most likely zero, nut there is just perhaps a politcal aspect.
    You don't even begin to explain why the Yankee political, military and journalistic establishment is behaving like this. I do not believe for a moment they would hype up an extra-terrestrial "threat" so as to "get more money for militarised space research". That's lunatic behaviour. These people, including Obama, are not lunatics
    I'm not explaining because I think all of this is very unlikely.
    With all due respect, that is limitlessly pathetic

    Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence

    That applies to both sides. Because any explanation for all this is gonna be crazy. How and why are all these highly-informed Americans acting so nuts, why push the narrative that it could be actual ALIENS?
    Due respect noted. Abuse disregarded. I suggested a plausible idea which as I made very clear I think is very unlikely. It is plausible though.

    Nobody is actually doing anything at all about this stuff because it is very likely fantasy. It's not impossible though and in the wildly unlikely event that there is something then we might tease out the possibilities.
    Sorry for the snappiness, but it is frustrating when you just don't address the question. If you don't believe it can possibly be aliens (and I totally get that, I find it very hard to believe myself) then you do have to explain why the US authorities are behaving as if they have evidence that this "could" be aliens

    Why would they even go down that road?
    I believe completely that it could be aliens, but I assign that a very low probability (very low indeed). If we wait long enough I assign a very high probability to us finding intelligent life elsewhere. Long enough might be millions of years though.

    Overall I have no idea why the US might be doing this. All I can think of it is in order to change the political agenda with regards to what happens in space in the future. There's a tiny possibility that it might be that they've actually found something. Both of these reasons - small chance and tiny chance I think make sense as I've represented them. Clearly though they are, so far as I am concerned, possibilities rather than anything likely to be true.
    Fair enough. The mystery abides
    It does. What do you have to offer in terms of ideas?

    PS. Absolutely mad and unthought out ideas are fine in mine book. I'll not criticise.
    I find it almost impossible to believe it is aliens. But that could be my Normalcy Bias

    But I can see with my own eyes that a lot of clever, informed people think this is a real possibility, and the evidence is growing in plausibility, but far from convincing. But then I also wonder what we would find *convincing*. Advanced intelligent alien life on earth would be outside our normal world-view, and so profoundly unsettling to many, we might refuse to believe it, even if we had the "Philip Thompson Experience" and the genderfluid sex aliens raped us from behind with their intergalactic love-bassoons

    I just dunno. Fascinating story, and a welcome break from Covid, so thanks America



  • Options
    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,244

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    FPT

    Leon said:

    Omnium said:

    ping said:

    Chameleon said:

    FWIW there does seem to be a real push from elements of the US to say that there are things out there doing stuff that we can't explain (from a former US President down), and moreover this has noticeably increased in intensity over the past 12 months.

    The question is why.

    Is it some sort of push to increase defence spending?

    Unlikely - there's no pushback to do so even without this.

    So why?

    Comedy value.
    Probably.

    However if the US had discovered (say) a radio signal or some other strong indicator of ET then I imagine they'd be really concerned as to how it might play. In that circumstance perhaps they'd roll out some weak (old and non genuine) stuff just to test the water. I have any such thing as a very low probability indeed, but it sort of fits the pattern, and one day (although perhaps not for many thousands of years) something will be found.

    Slightly more likely is that they want to spend more on space, and having some sort of unspecified threat allows some militarisation which would be completely unacceptable if the threat was only here on Earth.

    Anyway the ET aspect is most likely zero, nut there is just perhaps a politcal aspect.
    You don't even begin to explain why the Yankee political, military and journalistic establishment is behaving like this. I do not believe for a moment they would hype up an extra-terrestrial "threat" so as to "get more money for militarised space research". That's lunatic behaviour. These people, including Obama, are not lunatics
    I'm not explaining because I think all of this is very unlikely.
    With all due respect, that is limitlessly pathetic

    Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence

    That applies to both sides. Because any explanation for all this is gonna be crazy. How and why are all these highly-informed Americans acting so nuts, why push the narrative that it could be actual ALIENS?
    Because they're not being nuts, only nutters on the internet are being nuts.

    Obama on a comedy show says that there are things that can't be explained (a truism, there are always things that can't be explained) - nutters run around like he just confirmed that Big Foot is hiding Nessie and ET.

    Things that can't be explained can include a many varied things: videos that are faked but nobody can debunk, or is going to be bothered to debunk - or illusions that can't be explained - or limited evidence that leaves a mystery that can't be answered - or the list goes on.

    Can't be explained doesn't mean God and doesn't mean aliens.
    Philip, you are hopelessly out of touch with the serious statements made on this to both tv and print media in recent weeks and months by a string of very senior people in the US. Go and do your research and come back.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    Looks like the UK is set to get a Tesla gigafactory, I expect lots and lots of ministers to be relieved as it signals to the rest of the car industry that it's time to invest in the UK to stay competitive here. From what I understand it's going to be an absolutely giant one too, not just for domestic production but for exports to the EU and other territories.

    Almost inevitable after the Brexit trade deal ironically.

    The EU's insistence essentially that the deal only applied if batteries were made in the UK gave a humongous incentive to get batteries made in the UK. If batteries are made in the UK, then cars can be made and exported to the EU, so why not invest here?

    Win, win. Of all the border pedantry the EU insisted upon, the battery one was possibly the most perverse and oddest of all. Completely incentivises UK production of batteries.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    eek said:

    MaxPB said:

    Looks like the UK is set to get a Tesla gigafactory, I expect lots and lots of ministers to be relieved as it signals to the rest of the car industry that it's time to invest in the UK to stay competitive here. From what I understand it's going to be an absolutely giant one too, not just for domestic production but for exports to the EU and other territories.

    A Tesla factory not the Blyth attempt? any idea where in the UK?
    The Blyth one is separate and will supply batteries to the general supply chain, the Tesla gigafactory is to make batteries for Tesla cars which are planned to be manufactured in the UK and the EU.

    There's loads of sites up for contention but the government is pushing the northern options afaik.
This discussion has been closed.