Categories
In the next election betting it’s now odds-on that the Tories will get a majority – politicalbetting
In the next election betting it’s now odds-on that the Tories will get a majority – politicalbetting.com
Above is the betdata.io chart of Betfair’s next general election market and as can be seen for the first time the Tories are above a 50% chance to win a majority.
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
SeaShantyIrish2 said:
"the entire US political establishment, left to right, lining up behind the aliens hypothesis"
Really? That statement is itself nonsense.
Just bring up the New York Times website on you computer. And search of a mention of the word "alien". Which yours truly just did. With ZERO results.
Of course could be that the aliens are suppressing the "fact" that the "entire US political establishment" is as obsessed with UFOs or whatever the kids are calling them these days, as you are PRETENDING to be?
Remember Leon critiquing CycleFree for being MUCH MUCH MUCH to long with her commentaries.
Talk bout the Alien calling the Earthling green!
+++++++++
You didn't google very hard. The New York Times was actually the first major media corp to approach this in a serious way - famously so, in 2017:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/16/us/politics/pentagon-program-ufo-harry-reid.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/18/insider/secret-pentagon-ufo-program.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/29/science/ufos-aliens-space-travel.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/16/us/politics/unidentified-flying-object-navy.html
Which would be worthy of Batley & Spen in their prime!
Wake me up in 2025 for another look.
After a double lesson of intense studying of the Absurd, the futility of life, the pointlessness of it all ("I can't go on. I'll go on", "Your're on earth there's no cure for that" etc) for no apparent reason we, the students fell about laughing. We mocked the premise of SB's plays, our English Master, life, everything.
Said English Master became very upset and shouted at us to behave, stop, detentions, he threatened. We didn't and eventually it subsided.
What he didn't realise was that our little minds had had enough of the contemplation of death and nothingness and we therefore needed that outlet of irreverence, that dislocation from the real world of death and dying.
And what we did then is what people are doing now, analagously, with the UFO chat.
In addition, they have had enough of the virus and have been battered, psychologically, by reality. As such they are taking refuge in a super-reality.
We are all in a febrile state whereby our critical faculties have been battered by the relentless onslaught of The Virus. We are both ready to believe anything and also seek refuge from the world.
And hence UFOs.
Can spot the virus in waste water
That's potentially the biggest story in human history, I'm sorry it's not "moving fast enough" for you
The alternative explanations, that China has secret hypersonic tech and has done for decades, that America has this tech but is somehow scaring itself with it, or that the USA has gone totally mad, would just be the biggest geopolitical story since World War 2
Deary me
NYT ($) Guest Essay - Progressives Won Chile’s Election. And They Won Big.
Ariel Dorfman - Over the weekend, the people of Chile voted in a historic election to select the members of a body tasked with drafting a new Constitution to replace the one written in 1980 under the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet.
The final tally dealt a severe blow to the followers of General Pinochet, many of whom make up the center-right and right-wing coalition Chile Vamos, backed by the current president, Sebastián Piñera, which won just 37 of the 155 seats for the Constitutional Convention. . . .
The victors were a group of parties of a new-left coalition, Apruebo Dignidad (I Approve Dignity), which elected 28 representatives, and numerous independent candidates who had been active in the ongoing protests calling for reforms in education, health and pensions, and an end to the neoliberal economic model that has dominated Chile for almost half a century. The independent, left and center-left candidates secured a combined 101 seats, more than two-thirds of the Constitutional Convention. . . .
The October 2019 revolt terrified the ruling coalition of conservative politicians, and they reached an agreement with center-left parties holding a majority in Congress to call a referendum asking the nation whether it wanted a new Constitution. . . .
To make certain that they would wield a veto over the proceedings, many of General Pinochet’s followers in the Senate and Congress wrote into the agreement that the final document produced by the Constitutional Convention would have to be approved by a two-thirds majority. . . .
That calculation backfired spectacularly over the past weekend as Chile Vamos, despite an enormous financial advantage, lost badly to independent and opposition candidates, and was sidelined from decision-making when it comes to the new charter. The defeat is all the more striking because the coalition also lost most of the mayor’s and governor’s races . . .
There are, however, some disquieting signals ahead. Only 43 percent of the population voted in this election, compared with the more than 50 percent who turned out last year and overwhelmingly approved the idea of creating a new Constitution.
This absenteeism can be partly attributed to the pandemic (which also stopped me and my wife from traveling to Chile to cast our votes) and partly to the widespread apathy of vast sectors of the electorate, particularly among the poorest families. . . .
The other problem is that though nearly 75 percent of the delegates embody a progressive agenda, they are fragmented and tend to squabble among themselves, making it difficult to reach a consensus on how far to carry out the reforms Chile requires.
None of this detracts from the encouraging message and example that Chile sends out to the world at a time of rising authoritarianism . . .
Have all the fun you want with this, but do NOT expect folks to actually take you seriously when you are babbling for comic relief. You've driven this gambit into the ground, and them some. About as amusing as the last few seasons of "Frazier"!
The tax system should encourage the efficient allocation of resources. Stamp duty does the opposite.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/startswithabang/2021/05/19/why-arent-astronomers-paying-more-attention-to-ufos/?sh=31753fc96d8e&utm_campaign=socialflowForbesMainTwitter&utm_medium=social&utm_source=ForbesMainTwitter
And now I am actually gonna do some work
You set us all up for that, didn't you?
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1395045719187283971
Creating a gravity well and twisting space-time wouldn't avoid interactions with the medium.
It would, though, have all sorts of repercussions. Colossal gravity waves, for a start, and we do have sensors for that. A gravity well like that would have big repercussions in all sorts of areas, from distorting orbits overhead through to ripping items off the ground and massive* issues caused in weather**
It wouldn't avoid N2 combustion, or sonic booms (the air is still there and still has to go somewhere)
* Pun intended
** Hey, @Leon - we've got a weather link for you!
@DPJHodges
·
3m
Hospitalisations from Indian variant currently flat. That’s the key statistic.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2021/may/18/ben-jennings-on-the-lifting-of-lockdown-cartoon
Is the absolute crucial part for me.
Now, high altitude stuff on the edge of space is much more plausible because there's less air there.
And here's the other thing: if you can avoid having your spaceship "interfering" with other matter (or to put it another way, using the same physical space without affecting it), then why can't these spaceships simply fly through the ground? Because that's matter too.
Plus, if you're not interacting with matter around you, why is light bouncing off you?
You don't need to be a genius to realise that videos like the Utah one are massively more likely to be done in After Effects than to be evidence of aliens on earth.
(And it shouldn't surprise us that these videos are popping up at about the same time that it becomes easy for people at home to make videos like this.)
We've got past that. But the constraints imposed by Plan Inspectors and developers wriggling out of delivering social housing remain a real hurdle.
Interestingly though your conclusion is also his; we need better mechanisms - including the ones you and, I think, @ping on the previous thread, suggest for enabling and encouraging trading down.
Wales.
Drakeford has asked people in Wales not to go on holiday abroad in 2021, even though -- according to his Government -- they are allowed to.
Drakeford added that he did not want to "make people feel guilty" about going abroad, but urged people to "think of their own safety and the safety of others".
All crystal clear from Llafur in Wales -- no mixed messages there 😉
Everything is allowed except it is also forbidden.
The second question is, is it such a bad idea that the government should use criminal sanctions to stop it? I would say not given our current projection in terms of vaccinations, hospitalisations and deaths. The risk is not negligible but it does not justify criminal penalties.
How many times do journalists literally ask a question that Hancock or JVT have just specifically talked about.
The public ask better questions.
Remember, this is a highly paid UK journalist we are talking about -- so someone with no discernible talent or understanding of numbers or judgment of risk or scientific ability.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GtpMxXSPEhU
Or the other one is they ask a question where there is clearly no answer e.g. can you tell us to the percentage point how much more deadly is the Indian variant and on what second of what hour of what day will we stop being able to wear a mask.
Keep reading my posts on Wales as you might learn something about Wales and her people.
Sort of the opposite of the great John Cole.
https://twitter.com/brfootball/status/553477207243636738
President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have appeared so in lockstep that it’s hard to remember how tense their early campaign days were.
" . . . Biden arrived in Miami in late June 2019 as a teetering frontrunner, under fire for having just gotten nostalgic talking about the old days in the Senate working with segregationists. Harris arrived seemingly on the cusp of being a superstar, though her strength as a candidate was shakier under the surface than anyone outside the campaign sensed. Everyone who was paying attention remembers what happened next: Harris scored the most viral moment of the race by slamming Biden for his 1970s position on busing, linking the attack to the story of a girl who had needed to be bused herself, and punctuating it: “That little girl was me.”
But the never-before-told story of what happened behind the scenes as Harris prepared for that debate, and Biden and his team in turn responded, explains how close Harris came to not getting picked for the ticket—and why she and Biden both have worked so hard to build up their relationship in the months since. . . . .
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/05/19/edward-isaac-dovere-2020-campaign-book-excerpt-joe-biden-kamala-harris-489347
As Leon has tried to point out, you are all missing the story spectacularly. Don’t try and debunk a given video on YouTube. Explain what the f*** has happened to the public discourse on this in a matter of mere months, led by a string of senior and respectable figures who receive (or received) classified security briefings.
Wait a minute, maybe the 'aliens' are actually long-lost humans who have finally made it back to Earth ... and are extremely confused...
How do these people with no numeracy or statistical ability survive in life?
Edit - It was around last May when they seemed shocked that as tests ramped up confirmed positive tests would also go up.
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/04/18/is-mark-drakeford-the-new-sir-winston-churchill/
You even fooled Casino Royale to follow you into an obvious loser.
You even wrote:
"On that basis I make the 25/1 on the Tories stupendous value, if you’re lucky like me, Ladbrokes may even boost the odds to 28/1."
And you didn't even realise why Ladbrokes -- after they stopped guffawing -- let you have better odds. 😀😀😀
Free up enough land for everyone to get a good home if they want one, not just "social housing".
NYC Attorney General investigating the Trump Organization 'in a criminal capacity'
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-organization-criminal-investigation-new-york/
I presume that this means the AG thinks the organization may have committed crimes, rather than that the AG is going about his own work in a criminal manner.
Here's my most considered posts on the matter.
YouGov and Opinium show different things on the VI but are consistent in showing the Welsh rate and prefer Mark Drakeford
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/04/20/the-welsh-look-like-cementing-their-role-as-the-mitch-mcconnell-of-british-politics/
and
Looking at those supplementaries past form suggests Drakeford’s leadership might be responsible for Labour doing better than the headline voting intention suggests, even if Boris Johnson premiership isn’t on the ballot paper in May’s Senedd election. Perhaps Welsh Labour should rebrand themselves as the Mark Drakeford Party to capitalise on his excellent leader and supplementary ratings.
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2021/03/28/the-prince-of-wales-of-peoples-hearts-in-peoples-hearts-and-votes/
You do realise that Ladbrokes for example boosted my bet of Sunak as next PM from 200/1 to 250/1, I mean who is laughing now? They've done it for a couple of other winners.
It’s actually the best argument against televised briefings/press conferences. Put it all off cameras and they might actually have a motivation to ask some decent (and different!) questions.
That is why Ladbrokes gave you better odds.
I kinda liked it when the RFU released an England alternate shirt that looked exactly like that.
Contrast with Cole. Year after year he reported on the Thatcher government and yet never once did he allow his own politics to get anywhere near his reports.
Modern reporters reek of their opinions.
So. You're saying that because there are lots of news stories about something, that something must be happening more frequently?
Do you really want to go there?
And it's now known that the shirt from the first season at Highbury was red not that maroon we wore.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2021/03/23/ufo-report-covid-bill/
It's worth noting I don't think any satellite imagery of UAPs has been seen yet.
Even if you don't think aliens are invovled, for the man who was the head of the US Intelligence Community until early this year to say such things is pretty far out.
I don't expect people to do things like to do standard deviations in their heads but I would like them to have an understanding mean, median, and modal.
Have a bit of thinking before you blast out a big number because you think it is interesting.
It is not something limited to journalists in this country.
https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/mar/06/msnbc/bad-math-msnbc-bloombergs-ad-spending-wasnt-enough/