Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

The by-election battle for Jo Cox’s old seat shouldn’t be as challenging for LAB as Hartlepool – pol

135678

Comments

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited May 2021

    Obviously if he was an MP then Mark Drakeford should replace Starmer.

    Just look how loved and admired he is in Brexit Wales.

    He lost Vale of Clwyd to the Tories with no gains other than from Plaid in the Rhondda last week, Drakeford held the Labour core vote in Wales and picked up a few Plaid and LD votes, there is no evidence he appeals to Tories
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,297
    kinabalu said:

    ping said:

    I think the modern class divide is between those with enough resources/wealth/income to not need to work and those who do.

    It’s called “financial independence retire early” in the vocab of those over at monevator and on r/FIRE Reddit

    A key part of it is adjusting your wants/needs as well as building up assets/wealth/passive income.

    Personally I don’t like “fire” as an aspiration. I see it as a lazy desire to live off other people, rather than economically contribute. It becomes less and less economically viable, the more of society subscribes to the idea.

    I think it’s also, in reality, a psychological and health disaster for many people who reach their “goal” The mind and body need to be thoroughly exercised throughout life.

    Everyone's different, I guess. I retired very early (just couldn't do it no more) and for a while it was great. But I get a creeping feeling of regret and waste as the years rack up. I think job satisfaction beats money. Wish I'd been a lumberjack.
    Job satisfaction and money not exactly correlated though?
    If I had enough money to retire, I'd spend my time doing useful things and cut out the pointless bureaucracy and endless meetings....
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    kinabalu said:

    Cookie said:

    Just heard an interesting Burnham-stat: Andy Burnham came first in every single ward in Greater Manchester.

    He's on a roll. Very short price for someone ineligible to stand but something is stopping me laying him.
    Been announced as a London Evening Standard columnist.

    Emily Sheffield
    @emilysheffield
    · 36m
    Delighted that northern firebrand @andyburnham Mayor of Greater Manchester joins as a new columnist next week, writing on the burning issues that unite our regions. Today he tells us, we don’t London to level down for the north to prosper. ⁦@standardnews⁩ #kingofthenorth
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    15m
    People are now more likely to vote Conservative if they are on low incomes than on high incomes. My analysis of the Great Class Inversion
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    kinabalu said:

    .

    kinabalu said:

    Fishing said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Here's the Woollens -

    https://www.alekslukic.co.uk/hwdi.htm

    "We pride ourselves on not shying away from sensitive issues that other local politicians prefer not to discuss."

    "Promotion of a unifying shared British identity."

    Sufficient provision for the essential needs of the populace, otherwise preserving individual liberty."

    No Labour votes here. Plenty for the "Eng Nat" Cons.

    What about the above is "Eng Nat"? The only nationality mentioned is British.
    Yes, it could be written by Gordon "British jobs for British workers" Brown.
    Not really.
    "British jobs for British workers" is infinitely more xenophobic than anything written there.
    "British jobs for British workers" versus "Promoting a Unifying British Identity".

    Depends on intent and context. You can imagine both being said by the Far Right. And it's hard to imagine anyone but the Far Right pushing the 2nd one.

    Are you are into the promotion of a "unifying national identity" btw?
    What on earth is far right about wanting to unify rather than divide people? 🤔

    I could imagine anyone pushing the second. A unifying national identity should include the best bits of your country - that is Tony Blair did with his flag waving "Cool Britannia".

    What's the best of Britain that unifies us to you? Yes that's what politicians tend to put forwards in any mainstream party in any country around the globe. If you consider that "off" rather than "meaningless guff everyone should find agreeable" then I think your political antenna is a bit broken.
    I was merely wondering if "promoting a unifying national identity" warmed your cockles. Seems it does. Doesn't do much for me, I must confess. But my cockles and yours are dissimilar, we know that. So no surprise there.

    As to whether it's "off", this depends on what's meant by "identity".

    And one has to get specific about it in order to tell. So, eg, if you wish a political party to promote a "Unifying English Identity" - which you do - what exactly does this mean to you?

    Happy to defer any judgement until you flesh it out for me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    edited May 2021

    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    15m
    People are now more likely to vote Conservative if they are on low incomes than on high incomes. My analysis of the Great Class Inversion

    Outside of those who live in social housing yes.

    LDs do much better amongst higher income earners than low income earners there too, Labour does about the same with both.
    https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1392114168048857093?s=20
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    The big problem for Starmer now is that while the reasons for his underperformance may have been beyond anyone during a pandemic vaccine driven recovery, the narrative now is that he isn't any good and that will be very difficult to shake off. I think this is a shame for British democracy, because while I am not a Labour supporter I think Starmer looks and sounds credible. Labour will almost certainly replace him with someone much worse!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,836

    I stay out of it but my wife's originally from Bulgaria and she says the Greeks all have their heads up their own arses.

    Not surprising. They have, or at least had the habit of all-out wrestling in the nude when well-oiled. Accidents will happen.
  • oggologioggologi Posts: 29
    Cookie said:

    LabourList says that one candidate favoured by Labour leadership for their nomination is Leeds Cllr Salma Arif.

    Just noted the above posted by Andrea (thanks @AndreaParma_82 ). Anyone know anything about this character? A very quick scan of her twitter feed and her concerns seem to be Palestine and women's rights.
    Labour will lose then. They still aren't learning are they.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    HYUFD said:

    John Rentoul
    @JohnRentoul
    ·
    15m
    People are now more likely to vote Conservative if they are on low incomes than on high incomes. My analysis of the Great Class Inversion

    Outside of those who live in social housing yes
    Not surprising given that getting a social housing house is like winning the lottery.

  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    .

    kinabalu said:

    Fishing said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Here's the Woollens -

    https://www.alekslukic.co.uk/hwdi.htm

    "We pride ourselves on not shying away from sensitive issues that other local politicians prefer not to discuss."

    "Promotion of a unifying shared British identity."

    Sufficient provision for the essential needs of the populace, otherwise preserving individual liberty."

    No Labour votes here. Plenty for the "Eng Nat" Cons.

    What about the above is "Eng Nat"? The only nationality mentioned is British.
    Yes, it could be written by Gordon "British jobs for British workers" Brown.
    Not really.
    "British jobs for British workers" is infinitely more xenophobic than anything written there.
    "British jobs for British workers" versus "Promoting a Unifying British Identity".

    Depends on intent and context. You can imagine both being said by the Far Right. And it's hard to imagine anyone but the Far Right pushing the 2nd one.

    Are you are into the promotion of a "unifying national identity" btw?
    What on earth is far right about wanting to unify rather than divide people? 🤔

    I could imagine anyone pushing the second. A unifying national identity should include the best bits of your country - that is Tony Blair did with his flag waving "Cool Britannia".

    What's the best of Britain that unifies us to you? Yes that's what politicians tend to put forwards in any mainstream party in any country around the globe. If you consider that "off" rather than "meaningless guff everyone should find agreeable" then I think your political antenna is a bit broken.
    I was merely wondering if "promoting a unifying national identity" warmed your cockles. Seems it does. Doesn't do much for me, I must confess. But my cockles and yours are dissimilar, we know that. So no surprise there.

    As to whether it's "off", this depends on what's meant by "identity".

    And one has to get specific about it in order to tell. So, eg, if you wish a political party to promote a "Unifying English Identity" - which you do - what exactly does this mean to you?

    Happy to defer any judgement until you flesh it out for me.
    Another post from Philip trying to convince us that he is not a far right nutter. He probably thinks we are all as gullible as he is.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    edited May 2021

    Does anybody else think labour loses a few hundred votes in the red wall every time a senior figure opens his or her gob about Israel/Palestine?

    IF I was Starmer that would be my first rule. If its not your job to talk about Israel/Palestine then stop f8cking talking about Israel/Palestine.

    Why would a Red Wally be more apathetic about Israeli atrocities than (say) Chinese ones?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370
    edited May 2021
    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    LabourList says that one candidate favoured by Labour leadership for their nomination is Leeds Cllr Salma Arif.

    Just noted the above posted by Andrea (thanks @AndreaParma_82 ). Anyone know anything about this character? A very quick scan of her twitter feed and her concerns seem to be Palestine and women's rights.
    Labour will lose then. They still aren't learning are they.
    This is her latest tweet

    https://twitter.com/CllrSalmaArif/status/1391878154277605376

    Our local MP @RichardBurgon has spoken out against the violence taking place on Jerusalem.

    Many of my local residents have reached out to me regarding the heartbreaking scenes in Jerusalem.

    Please write to your local MP to ensure this issue is raised.


    That's going to win over the Heavy Woollen group...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    And let's face it, for Labour to hold B&S and the LibDems to gain C&A, Boris is simply back where he was last Wednesday.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    eek said:

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    LabourList says that one candidate favoured by Labour leadership for their nomination is Leeds Cllr Salma Arif.

    Just noted the above posted by Andrea (thanks @AndreaParma_82 ). Anyone know anything about this character? A very quick scan of her twitter feed and her concerns seem to be Palestine and women's rights.
    Labour will lose then. They still aren't learning are they.
    This is her latest tweet

    https://twitter.com/CllrSalmaArif/status/1391878154277605376

    Our local MP @RichardBurgon has spoken out against the violence taking place on Jerusalem.

    Many of my local residents have reached out to me regarding the heartbreaking scenes in Jerusalem.

    Please write to your local MP to ensure this issue is raised.


    That's going to win over the Heavy Woollen group...
    Labour does not need to win them over, just ensure they stay Heavy Woollen and split the Leave vote so it does not all go Tory
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,001
    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    eek said:

    Fishing said:

    Winning two by-elections from the Opposition on the trot would be truly remarkable, especially if the Conservatives manage to retain Chesham and Amersham.

    Chesham and Amersham will be a not quite Lib Dem win - with Labour being either a bad third or a sensibly didn't try third (their vote will be the same regardless).

    50% Tory
    40% Lib Dem
    10% other would be my estimate
    Maybe, although it's worth remembering that the LDs are famously ruthless and excellent at by-elections in small town Tory seats, while the Conservatives aren't.
    This is a myth, or at least, a dying echo of what was once true.

    The Lib Dems have taken precisely one seat off the Tories at a by-election outside London in the last TWENTY years.

    Well, how many such by-elections have there been over the last couple of decades? There are far fewer be-elections generally than there used to be.

    Some people say the Lib Dems are starting to be forgiven for the coalition years. There was no sign of it in 2019, but I guess we'll find out soon if it's true in the home counties or not.

    Taking a look - if you include London, there were 11 by-elections in Tory-held seats over the past 20 years (9 outside London).
    Going backwards from the present:
    1 - Brecon & Radnorshire - outside London - LD gain
    2 - Sleaford & North Hykeham - outside London - Con hold
    3 - Richmond Park - inside London - LD gain
    4 - Witney - outside London - Con hold (LD swing of 19% from 4th)
    5 - Rochester & Strood - outside London - UKIP gain
    6 - Clacton - outside London - UKIP gain
    7 - Newark - outside London - Con hold
    8 - Corby - outside London - Lab gain
    9 - Haltemprice & Howden - outside London - Con hold (NB. LDs and Lab did not stand)
    10 - Henley - outside London - Con hold
    11 - Bromley & Chiselhurst - inside London - Con hold

    I think the LDs didn't really go for it in numbers 2, 5, 6 and certainly not 9.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    edited May 2021
    felix said:

    I was totally wrong about Hartlepool so dyor - but I expect narrow Tory/Labour holds in Chesham/Batley

    Should be closer, this one, cf Pools. No bet here as yet. One of my brothers lives up there so I'll be quizzing him when I get a chance.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,793

    The big problem for Starmer now is that while the reasons for his underperformance may have been beyond anyone during a pandemic vaccine driven recovery, the narrative now is that he isn't any good and that will be very difficult to shake off. I think this is a shame for British democracy, because while I am not a Labour supporter I think Starmer looks and sounds credible. Labour will almost certainly replace him with someone much worse!

    Yes, these things become a bit self-fulfilling: once a narrative settles of a leader being a loser it makes it very hard to shift.
    But for every action he's taken I'd see as positive he's taken at least one negative. And maybe it's the same for people whose views are the direct opposite to mine. Maybe he's spent so much time trying to be all things to all people he's ended up being nothing to anyone.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Hey Siri.

    Show me the Second Punic War in a polling format.


    So, in fairness, he has finally cut through and is known by the voters. That was what he was aiming for, so it’s one objective down.
    It also shows that even before the local elections, he was already in big trouble.

    How many LOTOs have been this unpopular then gone on to win a general election?
    I think Dave's worst rating with Ipsos Mori was minus -25 and he went onto become LOTO.

    With YouGov it was minus 30 something.

    Both were during the first Brown bounce.

    IIRC they were the worst ratings for a LOTO to become PM.
    Here you go:

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/opposition-party-leaders-ipsos-mori-satisfaction-ratings-1977-2019

    Opposition Leader Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Date of poll
    % % %
    Thatcher 38 51 -13 Nov 1978
    Foot 13 69 -56 Aug 1982
    Kinnock 27 61 -34 Dec 1988
    Smith 33 41 -8 May 1993
    Blair 42 35 +7 Sep 1996
    Hague 19 56 -37 Jan 2000
    Duncan Smith 16 53 -37 Feb 2003
    Howard 23 49 -26 Jun 2005
    Cameron 23 45 -22 Sep 2007
    Miliband 25 63 -38 Dec 2014
    Corbyn 17 72 -55 Feb 2019
    Either it's a blip, or Starmer's toast.
    The only saving grace for Starmer is that the last 14 months the polls have been largely driven by the pandemic.

    If this is the norm for the post pandemic phase then he's like a stepmom on Pornhub.

    The only question is does the PLP have the desire to remove him?
    I keep coming back to the question, that nobody's really answered - who would you replace him with?
    Major Dan Jarvis.
    Well quite. Personable, sane, doesn't keep banging on about Palestine. But does he want the job? All the signs I've seen are that he doesn't.
    I've never heard Dan Jarvis speak, or what he really is like. All I know is that he was in the armed forces and that is why many think he could be good for Labour. The image of an ex squaddie might play well with the public. Other than that I don't know.
    He's not strictly speaking a squaddie. He was an officer. BUT, and it's quite a big but, no one really thinks like that when you're talking about a Para or a Marine. He was the former. Pretty hard core.

    I've a Labour friend from Barnsley who has been banging on about Jarvis for what feels like years and years.
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Another reason to back the Tories in C&A is the last 10 by-elections caused by a death of the sitting MP have remained in the hands of the same party.

    We have to go back to Gwyneth Dunwoody's death in Crewe & Nantwich in 2008 when Cameron's Tories were on a roll for a seat to change hands. Perhaps in 2018 or 2023 this seat would be a risk for Boris but I think with the vaccine bounce they'll be just fine.
  • oggologioggologi Posts: 29

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Hey Siri.

    Show me the Second Punic War in a polling format.


    So, in fairness, he has finally cut through and is known by the voters. That was what he was aiming for, so it’s one objective down.
    It also shows that even before the local elections, he was already in big trouble.

    How many LOTOs have been this unpopular then gone on to win a general election?
    I think Dave's worst rating with Ipsos Mori was minus -25 and he went onto become LOTO.

    With YouGov it was minus 30 something.

    Both were during the first Brown bounce.

    IIRC they were the worst ratings for a LOTO to become PM.
    Here you go:

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/opposition-party-leaders-ipsos-mori-satisfaction-ratings-1977-2019

    Opposition Leader Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Date of poll
    % % %
    Thatcher 38 51 -13 Nov 1978
    Foot 13 69 -56 Aug 1982
    Kinnock 27 61 -34 Dec 1988
    Smith 33 41 -8 May 1993
    Blair 42 35 +7 Sep 1996
    Hague 19 56 -37 Jan 2000
    Duncan Smith 16 53 -37 Feb 2003
    Howard 23 49 -26 Jun 2005
    Cameron 23 45 -22 Sep 2007
    Miliband 25 63 -38 Dec 2014
    Corbyn 17 72 -55 Feb 2019
    Either it's a blip, or Starmer's toast.
    The only saving grace for Starmer is that the last 14 months the polls have been largely driven by the pandemic.

    If this is the norm for the post pandemic phase then he's like a stepmom on Pornhub.

    The only question is does the PLP have the desire to remove him?
    I keep coming back to the question, that nobody's really answered - who would you replace him with?
    Major Dan Jarvis.
    Well quite. Personable, sane, doesn't keep banging on about Palestine. But does he want the job? All the signs I've seen are that he doesn't.
    I've never heard Dan Jarvis speak, or what he really is like. All I know is that he was in the armed forces and that is why many think he could be good for Labour. The image of an ex squaddie might play well with the public. Other than that I don't know.
    He's not strictly speaking a squaddie. He was an officer. BUT, and it's quite a big but, no one really thinks like that when you're talking about a Para or a Marine. He was the former. Pretty hard core.

    I've a Labour friend from Barnsley who has been banging on about Jarvis for what feels like years and years.
    I'll have to find out more about him.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    Fishing said:

    Hey Siri.

    Show me the Second Punic War in a polling format.


    So, in fairness, he has finally cut through and is known by the voters. That was what he was aiming for, so it’s one objective down.
    It also shows that even before the local elections, he was already in big trouble.

    How many LOTOs have been this unpopular then gone on to win a general election?
    I think Dave's worst rating with Ipsos Mori was minus -25 and he went onto become LOTO.

    With YouGov it was minus 30 something.

    Both were during the first Brown bounce.

    IIRC they were the worst ratings for a LOTO to become PM.
    Here you go:

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/opposition-party-leaders-ipsos-mori-satisfaction-ratings-1977-2019

    Opposition Leader Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Date of poll
    % % %
    Thatcher 38 51 -13 Nov 1978
    Foot 13 69 -56 Aug 1982
    Kinnock 27 61 -34 Dec 1988
    Smith 33 41 -8 May 1993
    Blair 42 35 +7 Sep 1996
    Hague 19 56 -37 Jan 2000
    Duncan Smith 16 53 -37 Feb 2003
    Howard 23 49 -26 Jun 2005
    Cameron 23 45 -22 Sep 2007
    Miliband 25 63 -38 Dec 2014
    Corbyn 17 72 -55 Feb 2019
    Either it's a blip, or Starmer's toast.
    The only saving grace for Starmer is that the last 14 months the polls have been largely driven by the pandemic.

    If this is the norm for the post pandemic phase then he's like a stepmom on Pornhub.

    The only question is does the PLP have the desire to remove him?
    I think he'll be out if things haven't improved in around a year from now.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chameleon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chesham and Amersham local election voteshares last week

    Tories 43.6%
    LDs 22.9%
    Greens 17%
    Labour 10.5%
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1392093241844060165?s=20

    So, when the 17% for the greens goes down to 5%, where does it split? Strong chance of a LD pickup here on the basis that Lab are crap.
    If the LDs gain Chesham and Amersham from the Tories and the Tories gain Batley and Spen from Labour it would be further evidence of the post Brexit realignment of our politics as shown too in the local elections, with Labour getting squeezed outside the big cities and Wales
    The tories losing C&A would be surely be a serious problem for Boris, especially if tory turnout was low.
    It would also put Tory MPs in Remain or soft Leave seats across the Home Counties at risk from the LDs, though Boris could counteract that with further gains from Labour in Midlands and Northern strong Leave seats like Batley and Spen and Hartlepool
    I think it would be a big mistake to assume the tory vote in the south is waning because the conservatives there are disappointed remainers.

    I rather think it is partly because the voters there are conservatives.
    It is mainly due to Brexit and at a local level rising Nimbyism in the South East, even in 2019 at the general elections there was a swing from the Tories to the LDs in most Home Counties Remain seats relative to 2017 once Boris had taken over even before the lockdown and the big spending despite the swing from Labour to the Tories in the Midlands and North. In the May 2019 locals the LDs also made big gains from the Tories in places like Guildford
    It may also be because some of us find populism distasteful and un-Conservative. Some of us also find having someone who is a proven habitual liar without principles also un-Conservative. The Conservative Party has shifted it's base of support from those who thought Conservative values were the best for Britain to it's lowest common denominator of support who are essentially English Nationalists with fundamentally unpleasant views.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,901
    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    Anyhoo, it is official I am working class.

    Labour's Batley And Spen Candidate 'Must Be Working Class', Keir Starmer Told

    Ian Lavery, Jon Trickett and Laura Smith draw battle lines as fallout from Hartlepool defeat continue

    The joint statement from Lavery’s No Holding Back group, said Starmer must select someone with a working class background, and ideally a key worker, and “not repeat the errors that brought us such a humiliating defeat” in Hartlepool.

    While unable to categorically define what was meant by “working class”, the group said it welcomed a debate with the Labour leadership on the issue.

    One definition being looked at by the group was “people who have to work in order to provide sufficiently for themselves and their families”.


    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/batley-spen-working-class-labour_uk_6098f8c3e4b05fb33f4ef5ca

    That's a remarkably wide definition of working class. Must encompass 80% plus of the working age population.
    Was the Labour candidate in Hartlepool a key worker?
    He's a GP so yes.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Here's the Woollens -

    https://www.alekslukic.co.uk/hwdi.htm

    "We pride ourselves on not shying away from sensitive issues that other local politicians prefer not to discuss."

    "Promotion of a unifying shared British identity."

    Sufficient provision for the essential needs of the populace, otherwise preserving individual liberty."

    No Labour votes here. Plenty for the "Eng Nat" Cons.

    Seems a bit "motherhood and Apple Pie" as the Americans would say.

    Are you against the British identity?

    Are you against individual liberty?

    Are you against discussing sensitive issues?

    All meaningless phrases. Where's the beef?
    I have little interest in them other than from the by-election betting angle. They have the air of hardcore Ukip to me (the guy who formed them certainly is) and I think they'll be breaking heavily Con. If you wish to make another bad call by thinking something else, by all means go for it.
    I'm not making a call this time. I know nothing about them and if BXP were prepared to go Tory and not be neverTories then there seems to be little reason these won't do the same.

    UKIP is dead so hardcore UKIP is meaningless, just as those words in bold you highlighted are meaningless. You've not said what they mean to you that Labour should be against instead of being meaningless guff.
    It's dead as a party but not as an attitude. In this sense it's still a lot of people and where their votes are going these days is a significant factor shaping our politics.
    Its dead as an attitude, we've left the EU. That was the unifying feature, beyond that they were just cranks.

    What's left of the attitude?
    The attitude.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    eek said:

    Fishing said:

    Winning two by-elections from the Opposition on the trot would be truly remarkable, especially if the Conservatives manage to retain Chesham and Amersham.

    Chesham and Amersham will be a not quite Lib Dem win - with Labour being either a bad third or a sensibly didn't try third (their vote will be the same regardless).

    50% Tory
    40% Lib Dem
    10% other would be my estimate
    Maybe, although it's worth remembering that the LDs are famously ruthless and excellent at by-elections in small town Tory seats, while the Conservatives aren't.
    This is a myth, or at least, a dying echo of what was once true.

    The Lib Dems have taken precisely one seat off the Tories at a by-election outside London in the last TWENTY years.

    Well, how many such by-elections have there been over the last couple of decades? There are far fewer be-elections generally than there used to be.

    Some people say the Lib Dems are starting to be forgiven for the coalition years. There was no sign of it in 2019, but I guess we'll find out soon if it's true in the home counties or not.

    Taking a look - if you include London, there were 11 by-elections in Tory-held seats over the past 20 years (9 outside London).
    Going backwards from the present:
    1 - Brecon & Radnorshire - outside London - LD gain
    2 - Sleaford & North Hykeham - outside London - Con hold
    3 - Richmond Park - inside London - LD gain
    4 - Witney - outside London - Con hold (LD swing of 19% from 4th)
    5 - Rochester & Strood - outside London - UKIP gain
    6 - Clacton - outside London - UKIP gain
    7 - Newark - outside London - Con hold
    8 - Corby - outside London - Lab gain
    9 - Haltemprice & Howden - outside London - Con hold (NB. LDs and Lab did not stand)
    10 - Henley - outside London - Con hold
    11 - Bromley & Chiselhurst - inside London - Con hold

    I think the LDs didn't really go for it in numbers 2, 5, 6 and certainly not 9.
    Just goes to show how most by-elections now have their own special circumstances. Boris going off to be Mayor, David Davis having an ego meltdown, UKIP defectors, Heathrow runway, recalled by the voters.... Mostly these days not well respected MP dies in the job and has to be replaced, which was much more common decades back. Which is why C&A is rather unusual.
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    Anyhoo, it is official I am working class.

    Labour's Batley And Spen Candidate 'Must Be Working Class', Keir Starmer Told

    Ian Lavery, Jon Trickett and Laura Smith draw battle lines as fallout from Hartlepool defeat continue

    The joint statement from Lavery’s No Holding Back group, said Starmer must select someone with a working class background, and ideally a key worker, and “not repeat the errors that brought us such a humiliating defeat” in Hartlepool.

    While unable to categorically define what was meant by “working class”, the group said it welcomed a debate with the Labour leadership on the issue.

    One definition being looked at by the group was “people who have to work in order to provide sufficiently for themselves and their families”.


    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/batley-spen-working-class-labour_uk_6098f8c3e4b05fb33f4ef5ca

    That's a remarkably wide definition of working class. Must encompass 80% plus of the working age population.
    Was the Labour candidate in Hartlepool a key worker?
    He's a GP so yes.
    An ultra-remainer bestie of Keir Starmer who was Chief Executive officer of Hartlepool and Stockton Health GP Federation. He kept his hand in as a GP of sorts whilst an MP in order not to lose his medical licence.

    I suppose you could call that a key worker but ... hmmm

    I really don't think Labour get their problem yet.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    Anyhoo, it is official I am working class.

    Labour's Batley And Spen Candidate 'Must Be Working Class', Keir Starmer Told

    Ian Lavery, Jon Trickett and Laura Smith draw battle lines as fallout from Hartlepool defeat continue

    The joint statement from Lavery’s No Holding Back group, said Starmer must select someone with a working class background, and ideally a key worker, and “not repeat the errors that brought us such a humiliating defeat” in Hartlepool.

    While unable to categorically define what was meant by “working class”, the group said it welcomed a debate with the Labour leadership on the issue.

    One definition being looked at by the group was “people who have to work in order to provide sufficiently for themselves and their families”.


    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/batley-spen-working-class-labour_uk_6098f8c3e4b05fb33f4ef5ca

    That's a remarkably wide definition of working class. Must encompass 80% plus of the working age population.
    Was the Labour candidate in Hartlepool a key worker?
    He's a GP so yes.
    Only the Labour party in its current crisis could decide to spend the time post-local elections having an internal debate about what is meant by the term 'working class'.

    Beyond parody now.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    Anyhoo, it is official I am working class.

    Labour's Batley And Spen Candidate 'Must Be Working Class', Keir Starmer Told

    Ian Lavery, Jon Trickett and Laura Smith draw battle lines as fallout from Hartlepool defeat continue

    The joint statement from Lavery’s No Holding Back group, said Starmer must select someone with a working class background, and ideally a key worker, and “not repeat the errors that brought us such a humiliating defeat” in Hartlepool.

    While unable to categorically define what was meant by “working class”, the group said it welcomed a debate with the Labour leadership on the issue.

    One definition being looked at by the group was “people who have to work in order to provide sufficiently for themselves and their families”.


    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/batley-spen-working-class-labour_uk_6098f8c3e4b05fb33f4ef5ca

    That's a remarkably wide definition of working class. Must encompass 80% plus of the working age population.
    Was the Labour candidate in Hartlepool a key worker?
    He's a GP so yes.
    I'm sure even Bill Gates when he was at Microsoft would think he was doing it to provide for his family. Ludicrous definition.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    Anyhoo, it is official I am working class.

    Labour's Batley And Spen Candidate 'Must Be Working Class', Keir Starmer Told

    Ian Lavery, Jon Trickett and Laura Smith draw battle lines as fallout from Hartlepool defeat continue

    The joint statement from Lavery’s No Holding Back group, said Starmer must select someone with a working class background, and ideally a key worker, and “not repeat the errors that brought us such a humiliating defeat” in Hartlepool.

    While unable to categorically define what was meant by “working class”, the group said it welcomed a debate with the Labour leadership on the issue.

    One definition being looked at by the group was “people who have to work in order to provide sufficiently for themselves and their families”.


    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/batley-spen-working-class-labour_uk_6098f8c3e4b05fb33f4ef5ca

    That's a remarkably wide definition of working class. Must encompass 80% plus of the working age population.
    Was the Labour candidate in Hartlepool a key worker?
    He's a GP so yes.
    An ultra-remainer bestie of Keir Starmer who was Chief Executive officer of Hartlepool and Stockton Health GP Federation. He kept his hand in as a GP of sorts whilst an MP in order not to lose his medical licence.

    I suppose you could call that a key worker but ... hmmm

    I really don't think Labour get their problem yet.
    he wasn't a bestie of Keir as far as I was aware.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    edited May 2021
    Is Ed Balls working "in order to provide sufficiently for themselves and their families”?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Here's the Woollens -

    https://www.alekslukic.co.uk/hwdi.htm

    "We pride ourselves on not shying away from sensitive issues that other local politicians prefer not to discuss."

    "Promotion of a unifying shared British identity."

    Sufficient provision for the essential needs of the populace, otherwise preserving individual liberty."

    No Labour votes here. Plenty for the "Eng Nat" Cons.

    Seems a bit "motherhood and Apple Pie" as the Americans would say.

    Are you against the British identity?

    Are you against individual liberty?

    Are you against discussing sensitive issues?

    All meaningless phrases. Where's the beef?
    I have little interest in them other than from the by-election betting angle. They have the air of hardcore Ukip to me (the guy who formed them certainly is) and I think they'll be breaking heavily Con. If you wish to make another bad call by thinking something else, by all means go for it.
    I'm not making a call this time. I know nothing about them and if BXP were prepared to go Tory and not be neverTories then there seems to be little reason these won't do the same.

    UKIP is dead so hardcore UKIP is meaningless, just as those words in bold you highlighted are meaningless. You've not said what they mean to you that Labour should be against instead of being meaningless guff.
    It's dead as a party but not as an attitude. In this sense it's still a lot of people and where their votes are going these days is a significant factor shaping our politics.
    Its dead as an attitude, we've left the EU. That was the unifying feature, beyond that they were just cranks.

    What's left of the attitude?
    The attitude.
    The UKIP/Brexit Party attitude is far more insidious than the actual act of exiting the EU. Exiting the EU was just a symptom of the belief set held by many of the people that vote that way. It is a belief set also held by Scottish nationalists; a belief set that is about hatred of other people, division and at the more extreme end a menace with a threat of violence. It is a political genie that is well out of the bottle. It will take generations to get it back in.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,717

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    Anyhoo, it is official I am working class.

    Labour's Batley And Spen Candidate 'Must Be Working Class', Keir Starmer Told

    Ian Lavery, Jon Trickett and Laura Smith draw battle lines as fallout from Hartlepool defeat continue

    The joint statement from Lavery’s No Holding Back group, said Starmer must select someone with a working class background, and ideally a key worker, and “not repeat the errors that brought us such a humiliating defeat” in Hartlepool.

    While unable to categorically define what was meant by “working class”, the group said it welcomed a debate with the Labour leadership on the issue.

    One definition being looked at by the group was “people who have to work in order to provide sufficiently for themselves and their families”.


    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/batley-spen-working-class-labour_uk_6098f8c3e4b05fb33f4ef5ca

    That's a remarkably wide definition of working class. Must encompass 80% plus of the working age population.
    Was the Labour candidate in Hartlepool a key worker?
    He's a GP so yes.
    Only the Labour party in its current crisis could decide to spend the time post-local elections having an internal debate about what is meant by the term 'working class'.

    Beyond parody now.
    Do they want to drop the r?

  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    geoffw said:

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    Anyhoo, it is official I am working class.

    Labour's Batley And Spen Candidate 'Must Be Working Class', Keir Starmer Told

    Ian Lavery, Jon Trickett and Laura Smith draw battle lines as fallout from Hartlepool defeat continue

    The joint statement from Lavery’s No Holding Back group, said Starmer must select someone with a working class background, and ideally a key worker, and “not repeat the errors that brought us such a humiliating defeat” in Hartlepool.

    While unable to categorically define what was meant by “working class”, the group said it welcomed a debate with the Labour leadership on the issue.

    One definition being looked at by the group was “people who have to work in order to provide sufficiently for themselves and their families”.


    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/batley-spen-working-class-labour_uk_6098f8c3e4b05fb33f4ef5ca

    That's a remarkably wide definition of working class. Must encompass 80% plus of the working age population.
    Was the Labour candidate in Hartlepool a key worker?
    He's a GP so yes.
    Only the Labour party in its current crisis could decide to spend the time post-local elections having an internal debate about what is meant by the term 'working class'.

    Beyond parody now.
    Do they want to drop the r?

    Brilliant :smiley:
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    eek said:

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    Anyhoo, it is official I am working class.

    Labour's Batley And Spen Candidate 'Must Be Working Class', Keir Starmer Told

    Ian Lavery, Jon Trickett and Laura Smith draw battle lines as fallout from Hartlepool defeat continue

    The joint statement from Lavery’s No Holding Back group, said Starmer must select someone with a working class background, and ideally a key worker, and “not repeat the errors that brought us such a humiliating defeat” in Hartlepool.

    While unable to categorically define what was meant by “working class”, the group said it welcomed a debate with the Labour leadership on the issue.

    One definition being looked at by the group was “people who have to work in order to provide sufficiently for themselves and their families”.


    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/batley-spen-working-class-labour_uk_6098f8c3e4b05fb33f4ef5ca

    That's a remarkably wide definition of working class. Must encompass 80% plus of the working age population.
    Was the Labour candidate in Hartlepool a key worker?
    He's a GP so yes.
    An ultra-remainer bestie of Keir Starmer who was Chief Executive officer of Hartlepool and Stockton Health GP Federation. He kept his hand in as a GP of sorts whilst an MP in order not to lose his medical licence.

    I suppose you could call that a key worker but ... hmmm

    I really don't think Labour get their problem yet.
    he wasn't a bestie of Keir as far as I was aware.
    Yeah he was Keir's choice for the seat
  • eekeek Posts: 28,370

    eek said:

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    Anyhoo, it is official I am working class.

    Labour's Batley And Spen Candidate 'Must Be Working Class', Keir Starmer Told

    Ian Lavery, Jon Trickett and Laura Smith draw battle lines as fallout from Hartlepool defeat continue

    The joint statement from Lavery’s No Holding Back group, said Starmer must select someone with a working class background, and ideally a key worker, and “not repeat the errors that brought us such a humiliating defeat” in Hartlepool.

    While unable to categorically define what was meant by “working class”, the group said it welcomed a debate with the Labour leadership on the issue.

    One definition being looked at by the group was “people who have to work in order to provide sufficiently for themselves and their families”.


    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/batley-spen-working-class-labour_uk_6098f8c3e4b05fb33f4ef5ca

    That's a remarkably wide definition of working class. Must encompass 80% plus of the working age population.
    Was the Labour candidate in Hartlepool a key worker?
    He's a GP so yes.
    An ultra-remainer bestie of Keir Starmer who was Chief Executive officer of Hartlepool and Stockton Health GP Federation. He kept his hand in as a GP of sorts whilst an MP in order not to lose his medical licence.

    I suppose you could call that a key worker but ... hmmm

    I really don't think Labour get their problem yet.
    he wasn't a bestie of Keir as far as I was aware.
    Yeah he was Keir's choice for the seat
    Nope he was Jenny Chapman's choice for the seat (Jenny supposedly had local knowledge).

    Jenny Chapman is also Keir's political secretary
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Hey Siri.

    Show me the Second Punic War in a polling format.


    So, in fairness, he has finally cut through and is known by the voters. That was what he was aiming for, so it’s one objective down.
    It also shows that even before the local elections, he was already in big trouble.

    How many LOTOs have been this unpopular then gone on to win a general election?
    I think Dave's worst rating with Ipsos Mori was minus -25 and he went onto become LOTO.

    With YouGov it was minus 30 something.

    Both were during the first Brown bounce.

    IIRC they were the worst ratings for a LOTO to become PM.
    Here you go:

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/opposition-party-leaders-ipsos-mori-satisfaction-ratings-1977-2019

    Opposition Leader Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Date of poll
    % % %
    Thatcher 38 51 -13 Nov 1978
    Foot 13 69 -56 Aug 1982
    Kinnock 27 61 -34 Dec 1988
    Smith 33 41 -8 May 1993
    Blair 42 35 +7 Sep 1996
    Hague 19 56 -37 Jan 2000
    Duncan Smith 16 53 -37 Feb 2003
    Howard 23 49 -26 Jun 2005
    Cameron 23 45 -22 Sep 2007
    Miliband 25 63 -38 Dec 2014
    Corbyn 17 72 -55 Feb 2019
    Either it's a blip, or Starmer's toast.
    The only saving grace for Starmer is that the last 14 months the polls have been largely driven by the pandemic.

    If this is the norm for the post pandemic phase then he's like a stepmom on Pornhub.

    The only question is does the PLP have the desire to remove him?
    I keep coming back to the question, that nobody's really answered - who would you replace him with?
    Major Dan Jarvis.
    Well quite. Personable, sane, doesn't keep banging on about Palestine. But does he want the job? All the signs I've seen are that he doesn't.
    I've never heard Dan Jarvis speak, or what he really is like. All I know is that he was in the armed forces and that is why many think he could be good for Labour. The image of an ex squaddie might play well with the public. Other than that I don't know.
    He's not strictly speaking a squaddie. He was an officer. BUT, and it's quite a big but, no one really thinks like that when you're talking about a Para or a Marine. He was the former. Pretty hard core.

    I've a Labour friend from Barnsley who has been banging on about Jarvis for what feels like years and years.
    How's Jarvis going to get past the membership vote though? Surely he will be viewed with suspicion by the bien pensants of N London and Middling University Labour club?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I see the Dem Congress is about to sabotage Biden's wildly popular plan to increase corporate taxes.

    Why are the Dems populated by absolute thickos?
  • Cocky_cockneyCocky_cockney Posts: 760
    eek said:

    eek said:

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    Anyhoo, it is official I am working class.

    Labour's Batley And Spen Candidate 'Must Be Working Class', Keir Starmer Told

    Ian Lavery, Jon Trickett and Laura Smith draw battle lines as fallout from Hartlepool defeat continue

    The joint statement from Lavery’s No Holding Back group, said Starmer must select someone with a working class background, and ideally a key worker, and “not repeat the errors that brought us such a humiliating defeat” in Hartlepool.

    While unable to categorically define what was meant by “working class”, the group said it welcomed a debate with the Labour leadership on the issue.

    One definition being looked at by the group was “people who have to work in order to provide sufficiently for themselves and their families”.


    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/batley-spen-working-class-labour_uk_6098f8c3e4b05fb33f4ef5ca

    That's a remarkably wide definition of working class. Must encompass 80% plus of the working age population.
    Was the Labour candidate in Hartlepool a key worker?
    He's a GP so yes.
    An ultra-remainer bestie of Keir Starmer who was Chief Executive officer of Hartlepool and Stockton Health GP Federation. He kept his hand in as a GP of sorts whilst an MP in order not to lose his medical licence.

    I suppose you could call that a key worker but ... hmmm

    I really don't think Labour get their problem yet.
    he wasn't a bestie of Keir as far as I was aware.
    Yeah he was Keir's choice for the seat
    Nope he was Jenny Chapman's choice for the seat (Jenny supposedly had local knowledge).

    Jenny Chapman is also Keir's political secretary
    Er, I think you are not merely splitting hairs but totally wayward.

    Keir Starmer explicitly wanted his buddy Paul Williams to come back to Parliament. They worked closely in the previous regime as fellow ultra remainers.

    https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/keir-starmer-paul-williams-hartlepool-b1820015.html

    https://www.independent.co.uk/independentpremium/voices/labour-hartlepool-election-brexit-b1841716.html

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,805

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    Anyhoo, it is official I am working class.

    Labour's Batley And Spen Candidate 'Must Be Working Class', Keir Starmer Told

    Ian Lavery, Jon Trickett and Laura Smith draw battle lines as fallout from Hartlepool defeat continue

    The joint statement from Lavery’s No Holding Back group, said Starmer must select someone with a working class background, and ideally a key worker, and “not repeat the errors that brought us such a humiliating defeat” in Hartlepool.

    While unable to categorically define what was meant by “working class”, the group said it welcomed a debate with the Labour leadership on the issue.

    One definition being looked at by the group was “people who have to work in order to provide sufficiently for themselves and their families”.


    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/batley-spen-working-class-labour_uk_6098f8c3e4b05fb33f4ef5ca

    That's a remarkably wide definition of working class. Must encompass 80% plus of the working age population.
    Was the Labour candidate in Hartlepool a key worker?
    He's a GP so yes.
    Only the Labour party in its current crisis could decide to spend the time post-local elections having an internal debate about what is meant by the term 'working class'.

    Beyond parody now.
    It's completely ridiculous. How have Labour got into a position where they don't even know what it is to be working class.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    Is Ed Balls working "in order to provide sufficiently for themselves and their families”?

    Ed Balls appears to be having huge fun since he left politics (if you can count being tasered by US police as "fun"). Why would he want to return, to lead Labour to defeat in 2024 against Boris?
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341
    oggologi said:

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Hey Siri.

    Show me the Second Punic War in a polling format.


    So, in fairness, he has finally cut through and is known by the voters. That was what he was aiming for, so it’s one objective down.
    It also shows that even before the local elections, he was already in big trouble.

    How many LOTOs have been this unpopular then gone on to win a general election?
    I think Dave's worst rating with Ipsos Mori was minus -25 and he went onto become LOTO.

    With YouGov it was minus 30 something.

    Both were during the first Brown bounce.

    IIRC they were the worst ratings for a LOTO to become PM.
    Here you go:

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/opposition-party-leaders-ipsos-mori-satisfaction-ratings-1977-2019

    Opposition Leader Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Date of poll
    % % %
    Thatcher 38 51 -13 Nov 1978
    Foot 13 69 -56 Aug 1982
    Kinnock 27 61 -34 Dec 1988
    Smith 33 41 -8 May 1993
    Blair 42 35 +7 Sep 1996
    Hague 19 56 -37 Jan 2000
    Duncan Smith 16 53 -37 Feb 2003
    Howard 23 49 -26 Jun 2005
    Cameron 23 45 -22 Sep 2007
    Miliband 25 63 -38 Dec 2014
    Corbyn 17 72 -55 Feb 2019
    Either it's a blip, or Starmer's toast.
    The only saving grace for Starmer is that the last 14 months the polls have been largely driven by the pandemic.

    If this is the norm for the post pandemic phase then he's like a stepmom on Pornhub.

    The only question is does the PLP have the desire to remove him?
    I keep coming back to the question, that nobody's really answered - who would you replace him with?
    Major Dan Jarvis.
    Well quite. Personable, sane, doesn't keep banging on about Palestine. But does he want the job? All the signs I've seen are that he doesn't.
    I've never heard Dan Jarvis speak, or what he really is like. All I know is that he was in the armed forces and that is why many think he could be good for Labour. The image of an ex squaddie might play well with the public. Other than that I don't know.
    He's not strictly speaking a squaddie. He was an officer. BUT, and it's quite a big but, no one really thinks like that when you're talking about a Para or a Marine. He was the former. Pretty hard core.

    I've a Labour friend from Barnsley who has been banging on about Jarvis for what feels like years and years.
    I'll have to find out more about him.
    He always reminds me of the older one of The Chuckle Brothers.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,164

    Starmer (again) carefully phrased:

    "My dad was a tool maker, he worked on the factory floor all his life". He also owned the factory.


    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1392122217887117314?s=20

    Starmer's biggest lie which shows in his angst-ridden facial expressions is the pretend patriotism and the pretend acceptance of Brexit. Boris is no angel of course but he's the ultimate pragmatist - hence the lack of angst. It infuriates purists of whatever political view but I think it pretty well sums it up.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    MaxPB said:

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    Anyhoo, it is official I am working class.

    Labour's Batley And Spen Candidate 'Must Be Working Class', Keir Starmer Told

    Ian Lavery, Jon Trickett and Laura Smith draw battle lines as fallout from Hartlepool defeat continue

    The joint statement from Lavery’s No Holding Back group, said Starmer must select someone with a working class background, and ideally a key worker, and “not repeat the errors that brought us such a humiliating defeat” in Hartlepool.

    While unable to categorically define what was meant by “working class”, the group said it welcomed a debate with the Labour leadership on the issue.

    One definition being looked at by the group was “people who have to work in order to provide sufficiently for themselves and their families”.


    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/batley-spen-working-class-labour_uk_6098f8c3e4b05fb33f4ef5ca

    That's a remarkably wide definition of working class. Must encompass 80% plus of the working age population.
    Was the Labour candidate in Hartlepool a key worker?
    He's a GP so yes.
    Only the Labour party in its current crisis could decide to spend the time post-local elections having an internal debate about what is meant by the term 'working class'.

    Beyond parody now.
    It's completely ridiculous. How have Labour got into a position where they don't even know what it is to be working class.
    How many of their voters could now march behind a Trade Union banner?

    Solicitors? Architects? Chartered surveyors?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Alistair said:

    I see the Dem Congress is about to sabotage Biden's wildly popular plan to increase corporate taxes.

    Why are the Dems populated by absolute thickos?

    Things have gone slightly Pete Tong for Biden in the last few days. Yes, I know I will be accused of bias but a few of the choice news items:

    - April job data last month was anaemic yet employers are complaining they can't find workers. Biden's benefits handouts is being widely blamed;
    - the hacking of the oil pipeline infrastructure has sent gasoline prices rocketing;
    - the stock markets are in retreat, as investors dump tech stocks and fears grow about inflation, on which;
    - company results season has given plenty of indications the US is about to be hit by a wage of inflation in the Autumn.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    TOPPING said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Here's the Woollens -

    https://www.alekslukic.co.uk/hwdi.htm

    "We pride ourselves on not shying away from sensitive issues that other local politicians prefer not to discuss."

    "Promotion of a unifying shared British identity."

    Sufficient provision for the essential needs of the populace, otherwise preserving individual liberty."

    No Labour votes here. Plenty for the "Eng Nat" Cons.

    Seems a bit "motherhood and Apple Pie" as the Americans would say.

    Are you against the British identity?

    Are you against individual liberty?

    Are you against discussing sensitive issues?

    All meaningless phrases. Where's the beef?
    I have little interest in them other than from the by-election betting angle. They have the air of hardcore Ukip to me (the guy who formed them certainly is) and I think they'll be breaking heavily Con. If you wish to make another bad call by thinking something else, by all means go for it.
    I'm not making a call this time. I know nothing about them and if BXP were prepared to go Tory and not be neverTories then there seems to be little reason these won't do the same.

    UKIP is dead so hardcore UKIP is meaningless, just as those words in bold you highlighted are meaningless. You've not said what they mean to you that Labour should be against instead of being meaningless guff.
    It's dead as a party but not as an attitude. In this sense it's still a lot of people and where their votes are going these days is a significant factor shaping our politics.
    Its dead as an attitude, we've left the EU. That was the unifying feature, beyond that they were just cranks.

    What's left of the attitude?
    What remains of their attitude is that its imagined nature forms a convenient balustrade behind which @kini can feel better about himself and condemn others.
    What is the matter with you?

    Ukip attracted a big vote in their prime. Not so long ago either. So where is that vote going now and what's driving it?

    Surely a more fascinating topic for a politics site than how I happen to be feeling about myself.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496
    edited May 2021

    Agree.

    Class has nothing to do with:
    -your accent
    -where you live
    -where you grew up
    -what your parents do
    -where you went to school

    These things remain important in supporting certain individuals to change their class position, but they don’t come into the definition of class.

    https://twitter.com/graceblakeley/status/1392045008560312320

    I wonder how that works out in actual terms of, say, JRM (dad editor of the Times, accent - how would one describe it, education Eton and Oxford, smart house in Westminster, even smarter in the country, aristocratic wife, 119 children with names from the ancien regime) or Samantha Cameron, as contrasted say with the lovely chap who cleans my windows or the equally lovely chaps who empty our bins.

    Mostly their background things assist them to stay much the same rather than change class.

    I don't think it's a problem BTW, I think it's all part of life's rich pattern
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034
    Boris on fire at the dispatch box

    His delivery should be compulsory listening for Starmer and Labour to understand just why he has his highest ratings and not Starmer's -48
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    LabourList says that one candidate favoured by Labour leadership for their nomination is Leeds Cllr Salma Arif.

    Just noted the above posted by Andrea (thanks @AndreaParma_82 ). Anyone know anything about this character? A very quick scan of her twitter feed and her concerns seem to be Palestine and women's rights.
    Labour will lose then. They still aren't learning are they.
    Depends. Is there a large muslim vote in this constituency?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377
    edited May 2021
    Yet again, I'd like to thank the PB Tories for their regular advice on who should be the next Labour leader. Today there have been recommendations for Andy Burnham, Ed Balls and Dan Jarvis - interesting, it ebbs and flows a bit but they all have something in common. You Tories should have taken our advice and gone for Jeremy Hunt - we kept telling you Boris was a bad 'un.

    Speculation is interesting, of course, but we are stuck with Starmer, for good or bad, for at least another year - he needs more than 14 months as Leader in a pandemic before fair and full assessment.

    I'm also grateful for the advice that any mention, let alone discussion, of Israel/Palestine should not pass the lips of anybody connected to the Labour Party. The bad things going on over there are all over the news, but lefties should maintain a a Trappist silence, because Corbyn I assume. I take it we're still allowed to talk about China, as long as we say the right things?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,218

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Hey Siri.

    Show me the Second Punic War in a polling format.


    So, in fairness, he has finally cut through and is known by the voters. That was what he was aiming for, so it’s one objective down.
    It also shows that even before the local elections, he was already in big trouble.

    How many LOTOs have been this unpopular then gone on to win a general election?
    I think Dave's worst rating with Ipsos Mori was minus -25 and he went onto become LOTO.

    With YouGov it was minus 30 something.

    Both were during the first Brown bounce.

    IIRC they were the worst ratings for a LOTO to become PM.
    Here you go:

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/opposition-party-leaders-ipsos-mori-satisfaction-ratings-1977-2019

    Opposition Leader Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Date of poll
    % % %
    Thatcher 38 51 -13 Nov 1978
    Foot 13 69 -56 Aug 1982
    Kinnock 27 61 -34 Dec 1988
    Smith 33 41 -8 May 1993
    Blair 42 35 +7 Sep 1996
    Hague 19 56 -37 Jan 2000
    Duncan Smith 16 53 -37 Feb 2003
    Howard 23 49 -26 Jun 2005
    Cameron 23 45 -22 Sep 2007
    Miliband 25 63 -38 Dec 2014
    Corbyn 17 72 -55 Feb 2019
    Either it's a blip, or Starmer's toast.
    The only saving grace for Starmer is that the last 14 months the polls have been largely driven by the pandemic.

    If this is the norm for the post pandemic phase then he's like a stepmom on Pornhub.

    The only question is does the PLP have the desire to remove him?
    I keep coming back to the question, that nobody's really answered - who would you replace him with?
    Major Dan Jarvis.
    Well quite. Personable, sane, doesn't keep banging on about Palestine. But does he want the job? All the signs I've seen are that he doesn't.
    I've never heard Dan Jarvis speak, or what he really is like. All I know is that he was in the armed forces and that is why many think he could be good for Labour. The image of an ex squaddie might play well with the public. Other than that I don't know.
    He's not strictly speaking a squaddie. He was an officer. BUT, and it's quite a big but, no one really thinks like that when you're talking about a Para or a Marine. He was the former. Pretty hard core.

    I've a Labour friend from Barnsley who has been banging on about Jarvis for what feels like years and years.
    How's Jarvis going to get past the membership vote though? Surely he will be viewed with suspicion by the bien pensants of N London and Middling University Labour club?
    Not just that.

    I think we can be sure that the Friends of Angela Rayner have not been briefing away in order to make Dan Jarvis party leader.

    Basically, politicians who are more concerned with making themselves look good against their leader instead of making their leader look the best they can deserve to lose.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Hey Siri.

    Show me the Second Punic War in a polling format.


    So, in fairness, he has finally cut through and is known by the voters. That was what he was aiming for, so it’s one objective down.
    It also shows that even before the local elections, he was already in big trouble.

    How many LOTOs have been this unpopular then gone on to win a general election?
    I think Dave's worst rating with Ipsos Mori was minus -25 and he went onto become LOTO.

    With YouGov it was minus 30 something.

    Both were during the first Brown bounce.

    IIRC they were the worst ratings for a LOTO to become PM.
    Here you go:

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/opposition-party-leaders-ipsos-mori-satisfaction-ratings-1977-2019

    Opposition Leader Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Date of poll
    % % %
    Thatcher 38 51 -13 Nov 1978
    Foot 13 69 -56 Aug 1982
    Kinnock 27 61 -34 Dec 1988
    Smith 33 41 -8 May 1993
    Blair 42 35 +7 Sep 1996
    Hague 19 56 -37 Jan 2000
    Duncan Smith 16 53 -37 Feb 2003
    Howard 23 49 -26 Jun 2005
    Cameron 23 45 -22 Sep 2007
    Miliband 25 63 -38 Dec 2014
    Corbyn 17 72 -55 Feb 2019
    Either it's a blip, or Starmer's toast.
    The only saving grace for Starmer is that the last 14 months the polls have been largely driven by the pandemic.

    If this is the norm for the post pandemic phase then he's like a stepmom on Pornhub.

    The only question is does the PLP have the desire to remove him?
    I keep coming back to the question, that nobody's really answered - who would you replace him with?
    Major Dan Jarvis.
    Well quite. Personable, sane, doesn't keep banging on about Palestine. But does he want the job? All the signs I've seen are that he doesn't.
    I've never heard Dan Jarvis speak, or what he really is like. All I know is that he was in the armed forces and that is why many think he could be good for Labour. The image of an ex squaddie might play well with the public. Other than that I don't know.
    He's not strictly speaking a squaddie. He was an officer. BUT, and it's quite a big but, no one really thinks like that when you're talking about a Para or a Marine. He was the former. Pretty hard core.

    I've a Labour friend from Barnsley who has been banging on about Jarvis for what feels like years and years.
    How's Jarvis going to get past the membership vote though? Surely he will be viewed with suspicion by the bien pensants of N London and Middling University Labour club?
    I just looked ta his Wiki page. he looks far too electable to be elected to Labour Leader. Absolutely no chance.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921
    Alistair said:

    I see the Dem Congress is about to sabotage Biden's wildly popular plan to increase corporate taxes.

    Why are the Dems populated by absolute thickos?

    Some want to increase gas and diesel tax instead which I am sure would go down like a lead balloon with their constituents

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/some-democrats-cool-to-bidens-plan-to-boost-corporate-tax-rate-11617537601
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    MaxPB said:

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    Anyhoo, it is official I am working class.

    Labour's Batley And Spen Candidate 'Must Be Working Class', Keir Starmer Told

    Ian Lavery, Jon Trickett and Laura Smith draw battle lines as fallout from Hartlepool defeat continue

    The joint statement from Lavery’s No Holding Back group, said Starmer must select someone with a working class background, and ideally a key worker, and “not repeat the errors that brought us such a humiliating defeat” in Hartlepool.

    While unable to categorically define what was meant by “working class”, the group said it welcomed a debate with the Labour leadership on the issue.

    One definition being looked at by the group was “people who have to work in order to provide sufficiently for themselves and their families”.


    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/batley-spen-working-class-labour_uk_6098f8c3e4b05fb33f4ef5ca

    That's a remarkably wide definition of working class. Must encompass 80% plus of the working age population.
    Was the Labour candidate in Hartlepool a key worker?
    He's a GP so yes.
    Only the Labour party in its current crisis could decide to spend the time post-local elections having an internal debate about what is meant by the term 'working class'.

    Beyond parody now.
    It's completely ridiculous. How have Labour got into a position where they don't even know what it is to be working class.
    I don't think that's fair. As I've previously argued here, "working class" now means different things to different people. A plumber in Durham earning 50k+ and owns a 3 bed semi probably thinks they're working class. A vegan paralegal in London earning 20k and renting with 6 other people probably thinks they're working class too...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Boris on fire at the dispatch box

    His delivery should be compulsory listening for Starmer and Labour to understand just why he has his highest ratings and not Starmer's -48

    He's orders of magnitudes better at prepared speeches than thinking on his feet at PMQs....
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239

    Boris on fire at the dispatch box

    Not just his pants for once?
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 17,218

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chameleon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chesham and Amersham local election voteshares last week

    Tories 43.6%
    LDs 22.9%
    Greens 17%
    Labour 10.5%
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1392093241844060165?s=20

    So, when the 17% for the greens goes down to 5%, where does it split? Strong chance of a LD pickup here on the basis that Lab are crap.
    If the LDs gain Chesham and Amersham from the Tories and the Tories gain Batley and Spen from Labour it would be further evidence of the post Brexit realignment of our politics as shown too in the local elections, with Labour getting squeezed outside the big cities and Wales
    The tories losing C&A would be surely be a serious problem for Boris, especially if tory turnout was low.
    It would also put Tory MPs in Remain or soft Leave seats across the Home Counties at risk from the LDs, though Boris could counteract that with further gains from Labour in Midlands and Northern strong Leave seats like Batley and Spen and Hartlepool
    I think it would be a big mistake to assume the tory vote in the south is waning because the conservatives there are disappointed remainers.

    I rather think it is partly because the voters there are conservatives.
    It is mainly due to Brexit and at a local level rising Nimbyism in the South East, even in 2019 at the general elections there was a swing from the Tories to the LDs in most Home Counties Remain seats relative to 2017 once Boris had taken over even before the lockdown and the big spending despite the swing from Labour to the Tories in the Midlands and North. In the May 2019 locals the LDs also made big gains from the Tories in places like Guildford
    It may also be because some of us find populism distasteful and un-Conservative. Some of us also find having someone who is a proven habitual liar without principles also un-Conservative. The Conservative Party has shifted it's base of support from those who thought Conservative values were the best for Britain to it's lowest common denominator of support who are essentially English Nationalists with fundamentally unpleasant views.
    Trouble is that I can think of quite a few people like that on this site (what would you call a UK version of the Lincoln Project, anyway?), but it's still a fairly small niche in the wider population.

    For now.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    Boris on fire at the dispatch box

    His delivery should be compulsory listening for Starmer and Labour to understand just why he has his highest ratings and not Starmer's -48

    He has done well, but he is still a twat. You are blind to that though. One thing he is very good at is he can fool some of the people all of the time.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134
    rkrkrk said:

    kinabalu said:

    ping said:

    I think the modern class divide is between those with enough resources/wealth/income to not need to work and those who do.

    It’s called “financial independence retire early” in the vocab of those over at monevator and on r/FIRE Reddit

    A key part of it is adjusting your wants/needs as well as building up assets/wealth/passive income.

    Personally I don’t like “fire” as an aspiration. I see it as a lazy desire to live off other people, rather than economically contribute. It becomes less and less economically viable, the more of society subscribes to the idea.

    I think it’s also, in reality, a psychological and health disaster for many people who reach their “goal” The mind and body need to be thoroughly exercised throughout life.

    Everyone's different, I guess. I retired very early (just couldn't do it no more) and for a while it was great. But I get a creeping feeling of regret and waste as the years rack up. I think job satisfaction beats money. Wish I'd been a lumberjack.
    Job satisfaction and money not exactly correlated though?
    If I had enough money to retire, I'd spend my time doing useful things and cut out the pointless bureaucracy and endless meetings....
    Yes that's a great vision. But what I find is that if you're doing something for free it has a slightly artificial feel to it. Bit silly, I know, but there you go.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,377
    MaxPB said:

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    Anyhoo, it is official I am working class.

    Labour's Batley And Spen Candidate 'Must Be Working Class', Keir Starmer Told

    Ian Lavery, Jon Trickett and Laura Smith draw battle lines as fallout from Hartlepool defeat continue

    The joint statement from Lavery’s No Holding Back group, said Starmer must select someone with a working class background, and ideally a key worker, and “not repeat the errors that brought us such a humiliating defeat” in Hartlepool.

    While unable to categorically define what was meant by “working class”, the group said it welcomed a debate with the Labour leadership on the issue.

    One definition being looked at by the group was “people who have to work in order to provide sufficiently for themselves and their families”.


    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/batley-spen-working-class-labour_uk_6098f8c3e4b05fb33f4ef5ca

    That's a remarkably wide definition of working class. Must encompass 80% plus of the working age population.
    Was the Labour candidate in Hartlepool a key worker?
    He's a GP so yes.
    Only the Labour party in its current crisis could decide to spend the time post-local elections having an internal debate about what is meant by the term 'working class'.

    Beyond parody now.
    It's completely ridiculous. How have Labour got into a position where they don't even know what it is to be working class.
    Because definitions of social class have been hugely contentious for at least the last 30 years among academic specialists, social researchers and government agencies?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    Boris on fire at the dispatch box

    His delivery should be compulsory listening for Starmer and Labour to understand just why he has his highest ratings and not Starmer's -48

    His pants, you mean?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,793

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    LabourList says that one candidate favoured by Labour leadership for their nomination is Leeds Cllr Salma Arif.

    Just noted the above posted by Andrea (thanks @AndreaParma_82 ). Anyone know anything about this character? A very quick scan of her twitter feed and her concerns seem to be Palestine and women's rights.
    Labour will lose then. They still aren't learning are they.
    Depends. Is there a large muslim vote in this constituency?
    Yes.
    Presumably that is largely voting Labour anyway.
    But if Labour can keep up the 2019 vote they should win.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    Yet again, I'd like to thank the PB Tories for their regular advice on who should be the next Labour leader. Today there have been recommendations for Andy Burnham, Ed Balls and Dan Jarvis - interesting, it ebbs and flows a bit but they all have something in common. You Tories should have taken our advice and gone for Jeremy Hunt - we kept telling you Boris was a bad 'un.

    Speculation is interesting, of course, but we are stuck with Starmer, for good or bad, for at least another year - he needs more than 14 months as Leader in a pandemic before fair and full assessment.

    I'm also grateful for the advice that any mention, let alone discussion, of Israel/Palestine should not pass the lips of anybody connected to the Labour Party. The bad things going on over there are all over the news, but lefties should maintain a a Trappist silence, because Corbyn I assume. I take it we're still allowed to talk about China, as long as we say the right things?

    Hey, my advice to Labour is: keep Starmer in place as long as you can. Replacing him after the next election works just fine for me....
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,310

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chameleon said:

    HYUFD said:

    Chesham and Amersham local election voteshares last week

    Tories 43.6%
    LDs 22.9%
    Greens 17%
    Labour 10.5%
    https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1392093241844060165?s=20

    So, when the 17% for the greens goes down to 5%, where does it split? Strong chance of a LD pickup here on the basis that Lab are crap.
    If the LDs gain Chesham and Amersham from the Tories and the Tories gain Batley and Spen from Labour it would be further evidence of the post Brexit realignment of our politics as shown too in the local elections, with Labour getting squeezed outside the big cities and Wales
    The tories losing C&A would be surely be a serious problem for Boris, especially if tory turnout was low.
    It would also put Tory MPs in Remain or soft Leave seats across the Home Counties at risk from the LDs, though Boris could counteract that with further gains from Labour in Midlands and Northern strong Leave seats like Batley and Spen and Hartlepool
    I think it would be a big mistake to assume the tory vote in the south is waning because the conservatives there are disappointed remainers.

    I rather think it is partly because the voters there are conservatives.
    It is mainly due to Brexit and at a local level rising Nimbyism in the South East, even in 2019 at the general elections there was a swing from the Tories to the LDs in most Home Counties Remain seats relative to 2017 once Boris had taken over even before the lockdown and the big spending despite the swing from Labour to the Tories in the Midlands and North. In the May 2019 locals the LDs also made big gains from the Tories in places like Guildford
    It may also be because some of us find populism distasteful and un-Conservative. Some of us also find having someone who is a proven habitual liar without principles also un-Conservative. The Conservative Party has shifted it's base of support from those who thought Conservative values were the best for Britain to it's lowest common denominator of support who are essentially English Nationalists with fundamentally unpleasant views.
    Trouble is that I can think of quite a few people like that on this site (what would you call a UK version of the Lincoln Project, anyway?), but it's still a fairly small niche in the wider population.

    For now.
    For now indeed.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Yet again, I'd like to thank the PB Tories for their regular advice on who should be the next Labour leader. Today there have been recommendations for Andy Burnham, Ed Balls and Dan Jarvis - interesting, it ebbs and flows a bit but they all have something in common. You Tories should have taken our advice and gone for Jeremy Hunt - we kept telling you Boris was a bad 'un.

    Speculation is interesting, of course, but we are stuck with Starmer, for good or bad, for at least another year - he needs more than 14 months as Leader in a pandemic before fair and full assessment.

    I'm also grateful for the advice that any mention, let alone discussion, of Israel/Palestine should not pass the lips of anybody connected to the Labour Party. The bad things going on over there are all over the news, but lefties should maintain a a Trappist silence, because Corbyn I assume. I take it we're still allowed to talk about China, as long as we say the right things?

    Don't know about other PB Tories, but you'll get no such silly arguments from me. Dear Keir should be given all the time he needs as LOTO - a decade, if he wants it - and the more of it he spends talking about Palestine, the better.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    Has John Bercow got a book to sell or something? He seems to be popping up a lot in the media to tell us how he voted Labour.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    Alistair said:

    I see the Dem Congress is about to sabotage Biden's wildly popular plan to increase corporate taxes.

    Why are the Dems populated by absolute thickos?

    Because they listen too much to the donors and not enough to the voters.

    Corporate Democrat hypocracy is a brilliant spectator sport.

    It’s also how we ended up with Donald John Trump as President for four years.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 35,990
    Boris Johnson reveals to the Commons that he will set up a public inquiry into his Government's handling of covid "within this session". That means within the next 12 months.
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1392127574235615236
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Hey Siri.

    Show me the Second Punic War in a polling format.


    So, in fairness, he has finally cut through and is known by the voters. That was what he was aiming for, so it’s one objective down.
    It also shows that even before the local elections, he was already in big trouble.

    How many LOTOs have been this unpopular then gone on to win a general election?
    I think Dave's worst rating with Ipsos Mori was minus -25 and he went onto become LOTO.

    With YouGov it was minus 30 something.

    Both were during the first Brown bounce.

    IIRC they were the worst ratings for a LOTO to become PM.
    Here you go:

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/opposition-party-leaders-ipsos-mori-satisfaction-ratings-1977-2019

    Opposition Leader Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Date of poll
    % % %
    Thatcher 38 51 -13 Nov 1978
    Foot 13 69 -56 Aug 1982
    Kinnock 27 61 -34 Dec 1988
    Smith 33 41 -8 May 1993
    Blair 42 35 +7 Sep 1996
    Hague 19 56 -37 Jan 2000
    Duncan Smith 16 53 -37 Feb 2003
    Howard 23 49 -26 Jun 2005
    Cameron 23 45 -22 Sep 2007
    Miliband 25 63 -38 Dec 2014
    Corbyn 17 72 -55 Feb 2019
    Either it's a blip, or Starmer's toast.
    The only saving grace for Starmer is that the last 14 months the polls have been largely driven by the pandemic.

    If this is the norm for the post pandemic phase then he's like a stepmom on Pornhub.

    The only question is does the PLP have the desire to remove him?
    I keep coming back to the question, that nobody's really answered - who would you replace him with?
    Major Dan Jarvis.
    Well quite. Personable, sane, doesn't keep banging on about Palestine. But does he want the job? All the signs I've seen are that he doesn't.
    I've never heard Dan Jarvis speak, or what he really is like. All I know is that he was in the armed forces and that is why many think he could be good for Labour. The image of an ex squaddie might play well with the public. Other than that I don't know.
    He's not strictly speaking a squaddie. He was an officer. BUT, and it's quite a big but, no one really thinks like that when you're talking about a Para or a Marine. He was the former. Pretty hard core.

    I've a Labour friend from Barnsley who has been banging on about Jarvis for what feels like years and years.
    How's Jarvis going to get past the membership vote though? Surely he will be viewed with suspicion by the bien pensants of N London and Middling University Labour club?
    I just looked ta his Wiki page. he looks far too electable to be elected to Labour Leader. Absolutely no chance.
    The next leader absolutely must be a woman apparently.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 12,496

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Here's the Woollens -

    https://www.alekslukic.co.uk/hwdi.htm

    "We pride ourselves on not shying away from sensitive issues that other local politicians prefer not to discuss."

    "Promotion of a unifying shared British identity."

    Sufficient provision for the essential needs of the populace, otherwise preserving individual liberty."

    No Labour votes here. Plenty for the "Eng Nat" Cons.

    Seems a bit "motherhood and Apple Pie" as the Americans would say.

    Are you against the British identity?

    Are you against individual liberty?

    Are you against discussing sensitive issues?

    All meaningless phrases. Where's the beef?
    I have little interest in them other than from the by-election betting angle. They have the air of hardcore Ukip to me (the guy who formed them certainly is) and I think they'll be breaking heavily Con. If you wish to make another bad call by thinking something else, by all means go for it.
    I'm not making a call this time. I know nothing about them and if BXP were prepared to go Tory and not be neverTories then there seems to be little reason these won't do the same.

    UKIP is dead so hardcore UKIP is meaningless, just as those words in bold you highlighted are meaningless. You've not said what they mean to you that Labour should be against instead of being meaningless guff.
    It's dead as a party but not as an attitude. In this sense it's still a lot of people and where their votes are going these days is a significant factor shaping our politics.
    Its dead as an attitude, we've left the EU. That was the unifying feature, beyond that they were just cranks.

    What's left of the attitude?
    The attitude.
    The UKIP/Brexit Party attitude is far more insidious than the actual act of exiting the EU. Exiting the EU was just a symptom of the belief set held by many of the people that vote that way. It is a belief set also held by Scottish nationalists; a belief set that is about hatred of other people, division and at the more extreme end a menace with a threat of violence. It is a political genie that is well out of the bottle. It will take generations to get it back in.
    Voters make sure that Ukip and the Brexit party are not allowed anywhere near the levers of power but are used only as a tactical device; whereas divisive nationalists in Scotland.....

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561

    Boris on fire at the dispatch box

    His delivery should be compulsory listening for Starmer and Labour to understand just why he has his highest ratings and not Starmer's -48

    Very recently, Boris does seem to have finally shaken off his long Covid - and returned to the politician we have known in past times.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    Cookie said:

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    LabourList says that one candidate favoured by Labour leadership for their nomination is Leeds Cllr Salma Arif.

    Just noted the above posted by Andrea (thanks @AndreaParma_82 ). Anyone know anything about this character? A very quick scan of her twitter feed and her concerns seem to be Palestine and women's rights.
    Labour will lose then. They still aren't learning are they.
    Depends. Is there a large muslim vote in this constituency?
    Yes.
    Presumably that is largely voting Labour anyway.
    But if Labour can keep up the 2019 vote they should win.
    Interesting. This definitely needs to be considered. This isn't 97%+ white Hartlepool.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034

    Boris on fire at the dispatch box

    His delivery should be compulsory listening for Starmer and Labour to understand just why he has his highest ratings and not Starmer's -48

    He has done well, but he is still a twat. You are blind to that though. One thing he is very good at is he can fool some of the people all of the time.
    I accept Boris is marmite and of course many dislike him with a passion

    I am content to support him on the Queen's Speech but not sure voter ID is necessary

    Furthermore, I am a conservative member and cannot support Labour or the Lib Dems in their present form
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    Here's the Woollens -

    https://www.alekslukic.co.uk/hwdi.htm

    "We pride ourselves on not shying away from sensitive issues that other local politicians prefer not to discuss."

    "Promotion of a unifying shared British identity."

    Sufficient provision for the essential needs of the populace, otherwise preserving individual liberty."

    No Labour votes here. Plenty for the "Eng Nat" Cons.

    Seems a bit "motherhood and Apple Pie" as the Americans would say.

    Are you against the British identity?

    Are you against individual liberty?

    Are you against discussing sensitive issues?

    All meaningless phrases. Where's the beef?
    I have little interest in them other than from the by-election betting angle. They have the air of hardcore Ukip to me (the guy who formed them certainly is) and I think they'll be breaking heavily Con. If you wish to make another bad call by thinking something else, by all means go for it.
    I'm not making a call this time. I know nothing about them and if BXP were prepared to go Tory and not be neverTories then there seems to be little reason these won't do the same.

    UKIP is dead so hardcore UKIP is meaningless, just as those words in bold you highlighted are meaningless. You've not said what they mean to you that Labour should be against instead of being meaningless guff.
    It's dead as a party but not as an attitude. In this sense it's still a lot of people and where their votes are going these days is a significant factor shaping our politics.
    Its dead as an attitude, we've left the EU. That was the unifying feature, beyond that they were just cranks.

    What's left of the attitude?
    The attitude.
    The UKIP/Brexit Party attitude is far more insidious than the actual act of exiting the EU. Exiting the EU was just a symptom of the belief set held by many of the people that vote that way. It is a belief set also held by Scottish nationalists; a belief set that is about hatred of other people, division and at the more extreme end a menace with a threat of violence. It is a political genie that is well out of the bottle. It will take generations to get it back in.
    Agree re Brit Nat. Scot Nat, though, I don't equate to that (although I know you do). For me, being genuinely about sovereign self-determination, it's not a malign movement. You can see this from the Scots posters on here. They're not McFarages or McRobinsons.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,793

    Starmer (again) carefully phrased:

    "My dad was a tool maker, he worked on the factory floor all his life". He also owned the factory.


    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1392122217887117314?s=20

    Is that really true? Kier Starmer's dad owned the factory?

    I mean, of course, I don't think ill of him for having a middle class background. I have a middle class background. But he's always seemed fairly keen to let it be known he came from working class (sorry) origins.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    edited May 2021
    Keir Starmer’s leadership ratings now worse than Jeremy Corbyn’s, polls show
    Labour leader now less popular than his predecessor at same point in tenure

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/keir-starmer-polls-corbyn-labour-b1845588.html?utm_content=Echobox&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1620740099
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454

    Keir Starmer’s leadership ratings now worse than Jeremy Corbyn’s, polls show
    Labour leader now less popular than his predecessor at same point in tenure

    It's amusing that you're using the guy you think is brilliant — Jeremy Corbyn — as some sort of unpopularity benchmark.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    edited May 2021

    Boris on fire at the dispatch box

    His delivery should be compulsory listening for Starmer and Labour to understand just why he has his highest ratings and not Starmer's -48

    Very recently, Boris does seem to have finally shaken off his long Covid - and returned to the politician we have known in past times.
    For several months after his spell in hospital he was clearly suffering. We know Boris like to ramble and not keen on being a girly swot on the details, but he would literally get confused / forget questions being asked at those briefing (and it wasn't a diversion tactic, that ones from the public are rarely hard hitting Andrew Neil killer ones).
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    edited May 2021

    Starmer (again) carefully phrased:

    "My dad was a tool maker, he worked on the factory floor all his life". He also owned the factory.


    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1392122217887117314?s=20

    I'm not sure this is the zinger you think it is. The self-employed and small business owners are the bedrock of the new northern Conservative vote. They still think they're working class. What matters is getting "stuck in" to the graft.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034
    Scott_xP said:

    Boris Johnson reveals to the Commons that he will set up a public inquiry into his Government's handling of covid "within this session". That means within the next 12 months.
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1392127574235615236

    A public enquiry is necessary and I expect it will take a long time and likely make lots of recommendations but I doubt Boris, Nicola, Drakeford or Foster will have much to fear
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    Scott_xP said:

    Boris Johnson reveals to the Commons that he will set up a public inquiry into his Government's handling of covid "within this session". That means within the next 12 months.
    https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/status/1392127574235615236

    Another promise that will not happen then.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,805

    MaxPB said:

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    Anyhoo, it is official I am working class.

    Labour's Batley And Spen Candidate 'Must Be Working Class', Keir Starmer Told

    Ian Lavery, Jon Trickett and Laura Smith draw battle lines as fallout from Hartlepool defeat continue

    The joint statement from Lavery’s No Holding Back group, said Starmer must select someone with a working class background, and ideally a key worker, and “not repeat the errors that brought us such a humiliating defeat” in Hartlepool.

    While unable to categorically define what was meant by “working class”, the group said it welcomed a debate with the Labour leadership on the issue.

    One definition being looked at by the group was “people who have to work in order to provide sufficiently for themselves and their families”.


    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/batley-spen-working-class-labour_uk_6098f8c3e4b05fb33f4ef5ca

    That's a remarkably wide definition of working class. Must encompass 80% plus of the working age population.
    Was the Labour candidate in Hartlepool a key worker?
    He's a GP so yes.
    Only the Labour party in its current crisis could decide to spend the time post-local elections having an internal debate about what is meant by the term 'working class'.

    Beyond parody now.
    It's completely ridiculous. How have Labour got into a position where they don't even know what it is to be working class.
    I don't think that's fair. As I've previously argued here, "working class" now means different things to different people. A plumber in Durham earning 50k+ and owns a 3 bed semi probably thinks they're working class. A vegan paralegal in London earning 20k and renting with 6 other people probably thinks they're working class too...
    The vegan paralegal definitely doesn't think they're working class.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,716
    HYUFD said:

    Alistair said:

    I see the Dem Congress is about to sabotage Biden's wildly popular plan to increase corporate taxes.

    Why are the Dems populated by absolute thickos?

    Some want to increase gas and diesel tax instead which I am sure would go down like a lead balloon with their constituents

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/some-democrats-cool-to-bidens-plan-to-boost-corporate-tax-rate-11617537601
    They need a chat with Bill Clinton. He knows all about raising petrol/gas tax from his first stint as Governor.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,585
    MaxPB said:

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    Anyhoo, it is official I am working class.

    Labour's Batley And Spen Candidate 'Must Be Working Class', Keir Starmer Told

    Ian Lavery, Jon Trickett and Laura Smith draw battle lines as fallout from Hartlepool defeat continue

    The joint statement from Lavery’s No Holding Back group, said Starmer must select someone with a working class background, and ideally a key worker, and “not repeat the errors that brought us such a humiliating defeat” in Hartlepool.

    While unable to categorically define what was meant by “working class”, the group said it welcomed a debate with the Labour leadership on the issue.

    One definition being looked at by the group was “people who have to work in order to provide sufficiently for themselves and their families”.


    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/batley-spen-working-class-labour_uk_6098f8c3e4b05fb33f4ef5ca

    That's a remarkably wide definition of working class. Must encompass 80% plus of the working age population.
    Was the Labour candidate in Hartlepool a key worker?
    He's a GP so yes.
    Only the Labour party in its current crisis could decide to spend the time post-local elections having an internal debate about what is meant by the term 'working class'.

    Beyond parody now.
    It's completely ridiculous. How have Labour got into a position where they don't even know what it is to be working class.
    Because most of those who are working class, are no longer Union members.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,793

    Cookie said:

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    LabourList says that one candidate favoured by Labour leadership for their nomination is Leeds Cllr Salma Arif.

    Just noted the above posted by Andrea (thanks @AndreaParma_82 ). Anyone know anything about this character? A very quick scan of her twitter feed and her concerns seem to be Palestine and women's rights.
    Labour will lose then. They still aren't learning are they.
    Depends. Is there a large muslim vote in this constituency?
    Yes.
    Presumably that is largely voting Labour anyway.
    But if Labour can keep up the 2019 vote they should win.
    Interesting. This definitely needs to be considered. This isn't 97%+ white Hartlepool.
    No, I believe it's about 20% South Asian (mainly Muslim). Do you remember the Batley Grammar School incident? That was here.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,860
    Sounds like we’re in a war zone here, with ships’ cannon and gunfire out at sea. Presumably practicing for war with China?

    A military supply ship has appeared on the scene, as well
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,561
    Cookie said:

    Starmer (again) carefully phrased:

    "My dad was a tool maker, he worked on the factory floor all his life". He also owned the factory.


    https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1392122217887117314?s=20

    Is that really true? Kier Starmer's dad owned the factory?

    I mean, of course, I don't think ill of him for having a middle class background. I have a middle class background. But he's always seemed fairly keen to let it be known he came from working class (sorry) origins.
    If you were wondering about that "working class confusion" at the heart of the party.....
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    Anyhoo, it is official I am working class.

    Labour's Batley And Spen Candidate 'Must Be Working Class', Keir Starmer Told

    Ian Lavery, Jon Trickett and Laura Smith draw battle lines as fallout from Hartlepool defeat continue

    The joint statement from Lavery’s No Holding Back group, said Starmer must select someone with a working class background, and ideally a key worker, and “not repeat the errors that brought us such a humiliating defeat” in Hartlepool.

    While unable to categorically define what was meant by “working class”, the group said it welcomed a debate with the Labour leadership on the issue.

    One definition being looked at by the group was “people who have to work in order to provide sufficiently for themselves and their families”.


    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/batley-spen-working-class-labour_uk_6098f8c3e4b05fb33f4ef5ca

    That's a remarkably wide definition of working class. Must encompass 80% plus of the working age population.
    Was the Labour candidate in Hartlepool a key worker?
    He's a GP so yes.
    Only the Labour party in its current crisis could decide to spend the time post-local elections having an internal debate about what is meant by the term 'working class'.

    Beyond parody now.
    It's completely ridiculous. How have Labour got into a position where they don't even know what it is to be working class.
    I don't think that's fair. As I've previously argued here, "working class" now means different things to different people. A plumber in Durham earning 50k+ and owns a 3 bed semi probably thinks they're working class. A vegan paralegal in London earning 20k and renting with 6 other people probably thinks they're working class too...
    The vegan paralegal definitely doesn't think they're working class.
    They certainly do, like, and why shouldn't they?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    Blackford already going on about independence - so much for focus on recovery from the pandemic!
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    kinabalu said:

    Fishing said:

    Hey Siri.

    Show me the Second Punic War in a polling format.


    So, in fairness, he has finally cut through and is known by the voters. That was what he was aiming for, so it’s one objective down.
    It also shows that even before the local elections, he was already in big trouble.

    How many LOTOs have been this unpopular then gone on to win a general election?
    I think Dave's worst rating with Ipsos Mori was minus -25 and he went onto become LOTO.

    With YouGov it was minus 30 something.

    Both were during the first Brown bounce.

    IIRC they were the worst ratings for a LOTO to become PM.
    Here you go:

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/opposition-party-leaders-ipsos-mori-satisfaction-ratings-1977-2019

    Opposition Leader Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Date of poll
    % % %
    Thatcher 38 51 -13 Nov 1978
    Foot 13 69 -56 Aug 1982
    Kinnock 27 61 -34 Dec 1988
    Smith 33 41 -8 May 1993
    Blair 42 35 +7 Sep 1996
    Hague 19 56 -37 Jan 2000
    Duncan Smith 16 53 -37 Feb 2003
    Howard 23 49 -26 Jun 2005
    Cameron 23 45 -22 Sep 2007
    Miliband 25 63 -38 Dec 2014
    Corbyn 17 72 -55 Feb 2019
    Either it's a blip, or Starmer's toast.
    The only saving grace for Starmer is that the last 14 months the polls have been largely driven by the pandemic.

    If this is the norm for the post pandemic phase then he's like a stepmom on Pornhub.

    The only question is does the PLP have the desire to remove him?
    I think he'll be out if things haven't improved in around a year from now.
    I fail to see how he would survive the loss of Batley & Spen.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 17,405
    Xtrain said:

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Hey Siri.

    Show me the Second Punic War in a polling format.


    So, in fairness, he has finally cut through and is known by the voters. That was what he was aiming for, so it’s one objective down.
    It also shows that even before the local elections, he was already in big trouble.

    How many LOTOs have been this unpopular then gone on to win a general election?
    I think Dave's worst rating with Ipsos Mori was minus -25 and he went onto become LOTO.

    With YouGov it was minus 30 something.

    Both were during the first Brown bounce.

    IIRC they were the worst ratings for a LOTO to become PM.
    Here you go:

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/opposition-party-leaders-ipsos-mori-satisfaction-ratings-1977-2019

    Opposition Leader Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Date of poll
    % % %
    Thatcher 38 51 -13 Nov 1978
    Foot 13 69 -56 Aug 1982
    Kinnock 27 61 -34 Dec 1988
    Smith 33 41 -8 May 1993
    Blair 42 35 +7 Sep 1996
    Hague 19 56 -37 Jan 2000
    Duncan Smith 16 53 -37 Feb 2003
    Howard 23 49 -26 Jun 2005
    Cameron 23 45 -22 Sep 2007
    Miliband 25 63 -38 Dec 2014
    Corbyn 17 72 -55 Feb 2019
    Either it's a blip, or Starmer's toast.
    The only saving grace for Starmer is that the last 14 months the polls have been largely driven by the pandemic.

    If this is the norm for the post pandemic phase then he's like a stepmom on Pornhub.

    The only question is does the PLP have the desire to remove him?
    I keep coming back to the question, that nobody's really answered - who would you replace him with?
    Major Dan Jarvis.
    Well quite. Personable, sane, doesn't keep banging on about Palestine. But does he want the job? All the signs I've seen are that he doesn't.
    I've never heard Dan Jarvis speak, or what he really is like. All I know is that he was in the armed forces and that is why many think he could be good for Labour. The image of an ex squaddie might play well with the public. Other than that I don't know.
    He's not strictly speaking a squaddie. He was an officer. BUT, and it's quite a big but, no one really thinks like that when you're talking about a Para or a Marine. He was the former. Pretty hard core.

    I've a Labour friend from Barnsley who has been banging on about Jarvis for what feels like years and years.
    How's Jarvis going to get past the membership vote though? Surely he will be viewed with suspicion by the bien pensants of N London and Middling University Labour club?
    I just looked ta his Wiki page. he looks far too electable to be elected to Labour Leader. Absolutely no chance.
    The next leader absolutely must be a woman apparently.
    Or at least self-identify as...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,997
    Hands, face and empty space: where Covid has left politics | Anywhere but Westminster

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Np8WjKAbbQk
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,454
    IanB2 said:

    Sounds like we’re in a war zone here, with ships’ cannon and gunfire out at sea. Presumably practicing for war with China?

    A military supply ship has appeared on the scene, as well

    That's the Epping Forest Town Council fleet getting ready for the invasion of Scotland
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Boris directing a kidney punch to Labour's Brechtian tendency:

    He quotes the defeated Amber Valley Labour council leader who responded to defeat by saying: “The voters have let us down. I hope they don’t live to regret it.” Johnson says that is Labour’s approach; they want to change, not themselves, but the electorate.
  • XtrainXtrain Posts: 341

    Xtrain said:

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    Fishing said:

    Fishing said:

    Hey Siri.

    Show me the Second Punic War in a polling format.


    So, in fairness, he has finally cut through and is known by the voters. That was what he was aiming for, so it’s one objective down.
    It also shows that even before the local elections, he was already in big trouble.

    How many LOTOs have been this unpopular then gone on to win a general election?
    I think Dave's worst rating with Ipsos Mori was minus -25 and he went onto become LOTO.

    With YouGov it was minus 30 something.

    Both were during the first Brown bounce.

    IIRC they were the worst ratings for a LOTO to become PM.
    Here you go:

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/opposition-party-leaders-ipsos-mori-satisfaction-ratings-1977-2019

    Opposition Leader Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Date of poll
    % % %
    Thatcher 38 51 -13 Nov 1978
    Foot 13 69 -56 Aug 1982
    Kinnock 27 61 -34 Dec 1988
    Smith 33 41 -8 May 1993
    Blair 42 35 +7 Sep 1996
    Hague 19 56 -37 Jan 2000
    Duncan Smith 16 53 -37 Feb 2003
    Howard 23 49 -26 Jun 2005
    Cameron 23 45 -22 Sep 2007
    Miliband 25 63 -38 Dec 2014
    Corbyn 17 72 -55 Feb 2019
    Either it's a blip, or Starmer's toast.
    The only saving grace for Starmer is that the last 14 months the polls have been largely driven by the pandemic.

    If this is the norm for the post pandemic phase then he's like a stepmom on Pornhub.

    The only question is does the PLP have the desire to remove him?
    I keep coming back to the question, that nobody's really answered - who would you replace him with?
    Major Dan Jarvis.
    Well quite. Personable, sane, doesn't keep banging on about Palestine. But does he want the job? All the signs I've seen are that he doesn't.
    I've never heard Dan Jarvis speak, or what he really is like. All I know is that he was in the armed forces and that is why many think he could be good for Labour. The image of an ex squaddie might play well with the public. Other than that I don't know.
    He's not strictly speaking a squaddie. He was an officer. BUT, and it's quite a big but, no one really thinks like that when you're talking about a Para or a Marine. He was the former. Pretty hard core.

    I've a Labour friend from Barnsley who has been banging on about Jarvis for what feels like years and years.
    How's Jarvis going to get past the membership vote though? Surely he will be viewed with suspicion by the bien pensants of N London and Middling University Labour club?
    I just looked ta his Wiki page. he looks far too electable to be elected to Labour Leader. Absolutely no chance.
    The next leader absolutely must be a woman apparently.
    Or at least self-identify as...
    That's one way of improving his ratings!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,662
    kinabalu said:

    Boris on fire at the dispatch box

    His delivery should be compulsory listening for Starmer and Labour to understand just why he has his highest ratings and not Starmer's -48

    His pants, you mean?
    Have to say if its Boris vs SKS in GE2024 and the former is still pursuing the levelling up agenda

    Put me down as a maybe
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,921

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    oggologi said:

    Cookie said:

    Anyhoo, it is official I am working class.

    Labour's Batley And Spen Candidate 'Must Be Working Class', Keir Starmer Told

    Ian Lavery, Jon Trickett and Laura Smith draw battle lines as fallout from Hartlepool defeat continue

    The joint statement from Lavery’s No Holding Back group, said Starmer must select someone with a working class background, and ideally a key worker, and “not repeat the errors that brought us such a humiliating defeat” in Hartlepool.

    While unable to categorically define what was meant by “working class”, the group said it welcomed a debate with the Labour leadership on the issue.

    One definition being looked at by the group was “people who have to work in order to provide sufficiently for themselves and their families”.


    https://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/batley-spen-working-class-labour_uk_6098f8c3e4b05fb33f4ef5ca

    That's a remarkably wide definition of working class. Must encompass 80% plus of the working age population.
    Was the Labour candidate in Hartlepool a key worker?
    He's a GP so yes.
    Only the Labour party in its current crisis could decide to spend the time post-local elections having an internal debate about what is meant by the term 'working class'.

    Beyond parody now.
    It's completely ridiculous. How have Labour got into a position where they don't even know what it is to be working class.
    I don't think that's fair. As I've previously argued here, "working class" now means different things to different people. A plumber in Durham earning 50k+ and owns a 3 bed semi probably thinks they're working class. A vegan paralegal in London earning 20k and renting with 6 other people probably thinks they're working class too...
    The vegan paralegal definitely doesn't think they're working class.
    They certainly do, like, and why shouldn't they?
    As in their eyes it would mean identifying themselves as the same class as non graduate, Brexit voting, now Tory voting, oiks
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,134

    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    .

    kinabalu said:

    Fishing said:

    Cookie said:

    kinabalu said:

    Here's the Woollens -

    https://www.alekslukic.co.uk/hwdi.htm

    "We pride ourselves on not shying away from sensitive issues that other local politicians prefer not to discuss."

    "Promotion of a unifying shared British identity."

    Sufficient provision for the essential needs of the populace, otherwise preserving individual liberty."

    No Labour votes here. Plenty for the "Eng Nat" Cons.

    What about the above is "Eng Nat"? The only nationality mentioned is British.
    Yes, it could be written by Gordon "British jobs for British workers" Brown.
    Not really.
    "British jobs for British workers" is infinitely more xenophobic than anything written there.
    "British jobs for British workers" versus "Promoting a Unifying British Identity".

    Depends on intent and context. You can imagine both being said by the Far Right. And it's hard to imagine anyone but the Far Right pushing the 2nd one.

    Are you are into the promotion of a "unifying national identity" btw?
    What on earth is far right about wanting to unify rather than divide people? 🤔

    I could imagine anyone pushing the second. A unifying national identity should include the best bits of your country - that is Tony Blair did with his flag waving "Cool Britannia".

    What's the best of Britain that unifies us to you? Yes that's what politicians tend to put forwards in any mainstream party in any country around the globe. If you consider that "off" rather than "meaningless guff everyone should find agreeable" then I think your political antenna is a bit broken.
    I was merely wondering if "promoting a unifying national identity" warmed your cockles. Seems it does. Doesn't do much for me, I must confess. But my cockles and yours are dissimilar, we know that. So no surprise there.

    As to whether it's "off", this depends on what's meant by "identity".

    And one has to get specific about it in order to tell. So, eg, if you wish a political party to promote a "Unifying English Identity" - which you do - what exactly does this mean to you?

    Happy to defer any judgement until you flesh it out for me.
    Another post from Philip trying to convince us that he is not a far right nutter. He probably thinks we are all as gullible as he is.
    Well let's see how he gets on with explaining what his desired policy of "Promoting A Unified English Identity" actually means in practice.

    Choppy waters, no question, but perhaps his kayak will be sturdy enough.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,034
    IanB2 said:

    Sounds like we’re in a war zone here, with ships’ cannon and gunfire out at sea. Presumably practicing for war with China?

    A military supply ship has appeared on the scene, as well

    There have been similar reports of naval ships off Liverpool and I did read that naval exercises were being conducted off Anglesey
This discussion has been closed.