From what I've heard/expect I think the by election will be held either side of the summer and I'd expect the government to get a huge boost once we fully unlock on June 21st and the economy will soar.
So if the by election is held in July or September I'd expect a Tory gain due to the feelgood factor.
"We pride ourselves on not shying away from sensitive issues that other local politicians prefer not to discuss."
"Promotion of a unifying shared British identity."
Sufficient provision for the essential needs of the populace, otherwise preserving individual liberty."
No Labour votes here. Plenty for the "Eng Nat" Cons.
Depends. In Hartlepool and elsewhere, the Conservatives were able to take those votes because there was effectively nobody to stop them.
The Woolens have a local organisation and will presumably try to defend their votes. Obviously, the Conservatives start by finding an old Focus leaflet and cutting out the "Two Horse Race" artwork. But what else do they do? Reach out to the far right, or condemn it? It's not impossible, but it's not so trivially easy.
Yes, it's an interesting factor. The more votes the HWs get the better for Labour, I'd have thought, since if pushed to choose between Lab and Con, not many would choose Lab.
We're only one percent ahead of the Germans, and behind the Italians. Must strive to do better!
Good on the Greeks, they've got a great number! Knocking it out of the park there. 👍
the Danish number is a joke - 100% of Danes think their culture is better, but it causes huge problems because they are also trained to think they are nothing special - so actually 44% admitting what everyone in Denmark knows to be true is surprisingly high.
Indeed - I wonder what's special about Greeks that they're the only ones being honest?
The Queen's Speech - I haven't read about it. Can I assume that the fact that it has attracted little, if any, comment on here indicates that it is thin gruel, with nothing new to say and no surprises? And that social care has been kicked into the long grass again?
No surprise that the lowest are the Belgians, who don't really have a culture of their own.
I'm also not surprised by the Greeks. I have a Greek friend, and they are all taught at school to think about the history of ancient Greece and not about the sorry last two thousand years.
The Queen's Speech - I haven't read about it. Can I assume that the fact that it has attracted little, if any, comment on here indicates that it is thin gruel, with nothing new to say and no surprises? And that social care has been kicked into the long grass again?
I think the modern class divide is between those with enough resources/wealth/income to not need to work and those who do.
It’s called “financial independence retire early” in the vocab of those over at monevator and on r/FIRE Reddit
A key part of it is adjusting your wants/needs as well as building up assets/wealth/passive income.
Personally I don’t like “fire” as an aspiration. I see it as a lazy desire to live off other people, rather than economically contribute. It becomes less and less economically viable, the more of society subscribes to the idea.
I think it’s also, in reality, a psychological and health disaster for many people who reach their “goal” The mind and body need to be thoroughly exercised throughout life.
"We pride ourselves on not shying away from sensitive issues that other local politicians prefer not to discuss."
"Promotion of a unifying shared British identity."
Sufficient provision for the essential needs of the populace, otherwise preserving individual liberty."
No Labour votes here. Plenty for the "Eng Nat" Cons.
What about the above is "Eng Nat"? The only nationality mentioned is British.
Anyway, @kinbalu, after your success in Hartlepool, what's your prognosis here?
I was wrong last time about Hartlepool - the rules have changed. Not that the red wall is now a lot less Labour-friendly than before - we knew that. But that we no longer automatically see swings against the governing party. My prognosis was that those opposed to a mid-term government would always be more motivated to turn out than those who defend it - and that differential turn out would have probably seen Labour over the line. But as it happened it wasn't even close - we saw the sorts of turnout which imply that red wall voters are still motivated by punishing the Labour Party. So what's likely here? I still think the value is in Labour. In Hartlepool Con+BXP in 2019 would have beaten Labour; here Lab still wins that contest. We'd need to assume a HW-Con swing for the Cons to win it without a Lab-Con swing - a big stride, as who knows what they'll do - they probably won't vote Labour, but that's as much as we can say. We don't yet know what will happen with the candidate - will the candidate be as poor a choice for the local area as Paul Williams? Who will the Con candidate be? And presumably holding the by-election away from the local elections also benefits Labour (on my rule that opposition voters are more motivated).
My assumption is that most BXP voters will transfer to Con, but only a relatively small proportion of the HWs. On the basis of this churn the Con vote is roughly level with Lab or perhaps slightly ahead - but differential turnout will help the opposition party. Therefore Labour are value at any odds better than Evens. As Ladbrokes are offering 9/4, Labour are value, and I have placed my £5 on that outcome.
If Con win, but only win by a sliver, I can claim a moral victory, if not a financial one. If Con win relatively comfortably (2000 votes plus) then I am comfortably wrong, again.
It was a Tory seat in 1992 when the Tory lead here was 2.3% - compared to the GB lead of 7.6%. Might there still be a residual Jo Cox sympathy vote here which proves helpful to Labour?
I think the modern class divide is between those with enough resources/wealth/income to not need to work and those who do.
It’s called “financial independence retire early” in the vocab of those over at monevator and on r/FIRE Reddit
A key part of it is adjusting your wants/needs as well as building up assets/wealth/passive income.
Personally I don’t like “fire” as an aspiration. I see it as a lazy desire to live off other people, rather than economically contribute. It becomes less and less viable, the more of society subscribes to the idea.
How are you living off others?
I may retire in a little over 7 years time at the age of 50, I will be living off my own investments/savings/pensions.
I will be contributing by paying taxes on all the things I buy/contributing to the salaries of others, and thus the exchequer.
I think the modern class divide is between those with enough resources/wealth/income to not need to work and those who do.
It’s called “financial independence retire early” in the vocab of those over at monevator and on r/FIRE Reddit
A key part of it is adjusting your wants/needs as well as building up assets/wealth/passive income.
Personally I don’t like “fire” as an aspiration. I see it as a lazy desire to live off other people, rather than economically contribute. It becomes less and less viable, the more of society subscribes to the idea.
How are you living off others?
I may retire in a little over 7 years time at the age of 50, I will be living off my own investments/savings/pensions.
I will be contributing by paying taxes on all the things I buy/contributing to the salaries of others, and this the exchequer.
And contributing by having worked hard enough already to retire at 50. If you're working hard enough to save enough to retire at 50 you'll have contributed a lot more to the exchequer than if you'd spread those earnings out over another fifteen years.
Clare County Council has been forced to "pause" plans to erect a controversial statue of a Púca in the town of Ennistymon, after widespread local criticism of the proposed piece that it was "grotesque and scary".
The Council proposed placing the 6ft-tall interpretive art piece on a plinth at the end of Lower Church Hill in the town, as part of enhanced tourism and visitor measures to encourage more people to stay there.
The Council said the proposed "Púca of Ennistymon" sculpture was to form part of a €500,000 capital investment programme by Fáilte Ireland aimed at increasing visitor dwell in the town as well as improving and developing signage, pedestrian access and additional car parking.
This was to develop the town's untapped potential from being a transit zone that people pass through, to a destination where visitors want to stay longer and experience local culture.
"We pride ourselves on not shying away from sensitive issues that other local politicians prefer not to discuss."
"Promotion of a unifying shared British identity."
Sufficient provision for the essential needs of the populace, otherwise preserving individual liberty."
No Labour votes here. Plenty for the "Eng Nat" Cons.
Seems a bit "motherhood and Apple Pie" as the Americans would say.
Are you against the British identity?
Are you against individual liberty?
Are you against discussing sensitive issues?
All meaningless phrases. Where's the beef?
I have little interest in them other than from the by-election betting angle. They have the air of hardcore Ukip to me (the guy who formed them certainly is) and I think they'll be breaking heavily Con. If you wish to make another bad call by thinking something else, by all means go for it.
I'm not making a call this time. I know nothing about them and if BXP were prepared to go Tory and not be neverTories then there seems to be little reason these won't do the same.
UKIP is dead so hardcore UKIP is meaningless, just as those words in bold you highlighted are meaningless. You've not said what they mean to you that Labour should be against instead of being meaningless guff.
It's dead as a party but not as an attitude. In this sense it's still a lot of people and where their votes are going these days is a significant factor shaping our politics.
The Queen's Speech - I haven't read about it. Can I assume that the fact that it has attracted little, if any, comment on here indicates that it is thin gruel, with nothing new to say and no surprises? And that social care has been kicked into the long grass again?
Interestingly there is 1 line in that briefing that justifies doing it - from the summary so you don't need to read all of it.
International observers have commented on the trust-based nature of British general elections and recommended that asking for voter ID could improve the integrity of polls.
Given that we preach to others how to run their elections it's only fair that we follow their advice in it's entirety.
And there is zero mention of postal fraud which is worth emphasising given people's viewpoint that that is where the real fraud occurs.
"We pride ourselves on not shying away from sensitive issues that other local politicians prefer not to discuss."
"Promotion of a unifying shared British identity."
Sufficient provision for the essential needs of the populace, otherwise preserving individual liberty."
No Labour votes here. Plenty for the "Eng Nat" Cons.
Seems a bit "motherhood and Apple Pie" as the Americans would say.
Are you against the British identity?
Are you against individual liberty?
Are you against discussing sensitive issues?
All meaningless phrases. Where's the beef?
I have little interest in them other than from the by-election betting angle. They have the air of hardcore Ukip to me (the guy who formed them certainly is) and I think they'll be breaking heavily Con. If you wish to make another bad call by thinking something else, by all means go for it.
I'm not making a call this time. I know nothing about them and if BXP were prepared to go Tory and not be neverTories then there seems to be little reason these won't do the same.
UKIP is dead so hardcore UKIP is meaningless, just as those words in bold you highlighted are meaningless. You've not said what they mean to you that Labour should be against instead of being meaningless guff.
It's dead as a party but not as an attitude. In this sense it's still a lot of people and where their votes are going these days is a significant factor shaping our politics.
Yes good point and apologies because I rushed off yesterday when you were about to tell me what Labour, whose every spokesperson has said they must change, would actually change.
A self employed plumber will be declaring £15k of paye and pulling in the equivalent of £90k
Any decent accountant would be suggesting you report at least £35k to HMRC (I will emphasis that it's getting harder and harder to hide money from HMRC as their systems have improved exponentially over the years)
"We pride ourselves on not shying away from sensitive issues that other local politicians prefer not to discuss."
"Promotion of a unifying shared British identity."
Sufficient provision for the essential needs of the populace, otherwise preserving individual liberty."
No Labour votes here. Plenty for the "Eng Nat" Cons.
Seems a bit "motherhood and Apple Pie" as the Americans would say.
Are you against the British identity?
Are you against individual liberty?
Are you against discussing sensitive issues?
All meaningless phrases. Where's the beef?
I have little interest in them other than from the by-election betting angle. They have the air of hardcore Ukip to me (the guy who formed them certainly is) and I think they'll be breaking heavily Con. If you wish to make another bad call by thinking something else, by all means go for it.
I'm not making a call this time. I know nothing about them and if BXP were prepared to go Tory and not be neverTories then there seems to be little reason these won't do the same.
UKIP is dead so hardcore UKIP is meaningless, just as those words in bold you highlighted are meaningless. You've not said what they mean to you that Labour should be against instead of being meaningless guff.
It's dead as a party but not as an attitude. In this sense it's still a lot of people and where their votes are going these days is a significant factor shaping our politics.
Its dead as an attitude, we've left the EU. That was the unifying feature, beyond that they were just cranks.
"We pride ourselves on not shying away from sensitive issues that other local politicians prefer not to discuss."
"Promotion of a unifying shared British identity."
Sufficient provision for the essential needs of the populace, otherwise preserving individual liberty."
No Labour votes here. Plenty for the "Eng Nat" Cons.
Seems a bit "motherhood and Apple Pie" as the Americans would say.
Are you against the British identity?
Are you against individual liberty?
Are you against discussing sensitive issues?
All meaningless phrases. Where's the beef?
I have little interest in them other than from the by-election betting angle. They have the air of hardcore Ukip to me (the guy who formed them certainly is) and I think they'll be breaking heavily Con. If you wish to make another bad call by thinking something else, by all means go for it.
I'm not making a call this time. I know nothing about them and if BXP were prepared to go Tory and not be neverTories then there seems to be little reason these won't do the same.
UKIP is dead so hardcore UKIP is meaningless, just as those words in bold you highlighted are meaningless. You've not said what they mean to you that Labour should be against instead of being meaningless guff.
It's dead as a party but not as an attitude. In this sense it's still a lot of people and where their votes are going these days is a significant factor shaping our politics.
Its dead as an attitude, we've left the EU. That was the unifying feature, beyond that they were just cranks.
What's left of the attitude?
What remains of their attitude is that its imagined nature forms a convenient balustrade behind which @kini can feel better about himself and condemn others.
So, when the 17% for the greens goes down to 5%, where does it split? Strong chance of a LD pickup here on the basis that Lab are crap.
If the LDs gain Chesham and Amersham from the Tories and the Tories gain Batley and Spen from Labour it would be further evidence of the post Brexit realignment of our politics as shown too in the local elections, with Labour getting squeezed outside the big cities and Wales
So, when the 17% for the greens goes down to 5%, where does it split? Strong chance of a LD pickup here on the basis that Lab are crap.
If the LDs gain Chesham and Amersham from the Tories and the Tories gain Batley and Spen from Labour it would be further evidence of the post Brexit realignment of our politics as shown too in the local elections, with Labour getting squeezed outside the big cities and Wales
The tories losing C&A would be surely be a serious problem for Boris, especially if tory turnout was low.
The Queen's Speech - I haven't read about it. Can I assume that the fact that it has attracted little, if any, comment on here indicates that it is thin gruel, with nothing new to say and no surprises? And that social care has been kicked into the long grass again?
Thin indeed. Though I note, for those concerned about the security of postal voting, that the government proposes to grant votes to 3 million Britons who have lived overseas for longer than 15 years...
"We pride ourselves on not shying away from sensitive issues that other local politicians prefer not to discuss."
"Promotion of a unifying shared British identity."
Sufficient provision for the essential needs of the populace, otherwise preserving individual liberty."
No Labour votes here. Plenty for the "Eng Nat" Cons.
What about the above is "Eng Nat"? The only nationality mentioned is British.
Yes, it could be written by Gordon "British jobs for British workers" Brown.
Not really.
"British jobs for British workers" is infinitely more xenophobic than anything written there.
"British jobs for British workers" versus "Promoting a Unifying British Identity".
Depends on intent and context. You can imagine both being said by the Far Right. And it's hard to imagine anyone but the Far Right pushing the 2nd one.
Are you are into the promotion of a "unifying national identity" btw?
I missed the fact that in Starmer total bodge of a reshuffle he was supposed to be reducing the number of shadow ministers as it costs Labour a load of money (they have created a load of extra shadow's roles, shadowing well nobody because that job doesn't exist in government)...he has actually increased the number.
Labour's Batley And Spen Candidate 'Must Be Working Class', Keir Starmer Told
Ian Lavery, Jon Trickett and Laura Smith draw battle lines as fallout from Hartlepool defeat continue
The joint statement from Lavery’s No Holding Back group, said Starmer must select someone with a working class background, and ideally a key worker, and “not repeat the errors that brought us such a humiliating defeat” in Hartlepool.
While unable to categorically define what was meant by “working class”, the group said it welcomed a debate with the Labour leadership on the issue.
One definition being looked at by the group was “people who have to work in order to provide sufficiently for themselves and their families”.
I think the modern class divide is between those with enough resources/wealth/income to not need to work and those who do.
It’s called “financial independence retire early” in the vocab of those over at monevator and on r/FIRE Reddit
A key part of it is adjusting your wants/needs as well as building up assets/wealth/passive income.
Personally I don’t like “fire” as an aspiration. I see it as a lazy desire to live off other people, rather than economically contribute. It becomes less and less economically viable, the more of society subscribes to the idea.
I think it’s also, in reality, a psychological and health disaster for many people who reach their “goal” The mind and body need to be thoroughly exercised throughout life.
Don’t a lot of the FIRE types retire at 35 and end up having to get a job again at 45 or 50, as they way underestimated what their life is like with such a small and variable income from their investments?
So, when the 17% for the greens goes down to 5%, where does it split? Strong chance of a LD pickup here on the basis that Lab are crap.
If the LDs gain Chesham and Amersham from the Tories and the Tories gain Batley and Spen from Labour it would be further evidence of the post Brexit realignment of our politics as shown too in the local elections, with Labour getting squeezed outside the big cities and Wales
The tories losing C&A would be surely be a serious problem for Boris, especially if tory turnout was low.
It would also put Tory MPs in Remain or soft Leave seats across the Home Counties at risk from the LDs, though Boris could counteract that with further gains from Labour in Midlands and Northern strong Leave seats like Batley and Spen and Hartlepool
"We pride ourselves on not shying away from sensitive issues that other local politicians prefer not to discuss."
"Promotion of a unifying shared British identity."
Sufficient provision for the essential needs of the populace, otherwise preserving individual liberty."
No Labour votes here. Plenty for the "Eng Nat" Cons.
What about the above is "Eng Nat"? The only nationality mentioned is British.
Yes, it could be written by Gordon "British jobs for British workers" Brown.
Not really.
"British jobs for British workers" is infinitely more xenophobic than anything written there.
"British jobs for British workers" versus "Promoting a Unifying British Identity".
Depends on intent and context. You can imagine both being said by the Far Right. And it's hard to imagine anyone but the Far Right pushing the 2nd one.
Are you are into the promotion of a "unifying national identity" btw?
What on earth is far right about wanting to unify rather than divide people? 🤔
I could imagine anyone pushing the second. A unifying national identity should include the best bits of your country - that is Tony Blair did with his flag waving "Cool Britannia".
What's the best of Britain that unifies us to you? Yes that's what politicians tend to put forwards in any mainstream party in any country around the globe. If you consider that "off" rather than "meaningless guff everyone should find agreeable" then I think your political antenna is a bit broken.
Labour's Batley And Spen Candidate 'Must Be Working Class', Keir Starmer Told
Ian Lavery, Jon Trickett and Laura Smith draw battle lines as fallout from Hartlepool defeat continue
The joint statement from Lavery’s No Holding Back group, said Starmer must select someone with a working class background, and ideally a key worker, and “not repeat the errors that brought us such a humiliating defeat” in Hartlepool.
While unable to categorically define what was meant by “working class”, the group said it welcomed a debate with the Labour leadership on the issue.
One definition being looked at by the group was “people who have to work in order to provide sufficiently for themselves and their families”.
I think the modern class divide is between those with enough resources/wealth/income to not need to work and those who do.
It’s called “financial independence retire early” in the vocab of those over at monevator and on r/FIRE Reddit
A key part of it is adjusting your wants/needs as well as building up assets/wealth/passive income.
Personally I don’t like “fire” as an aspiration. I see it as a lazy desire to live off other people, rather than economically contribute. It becomes less and less economically viable, the more of society subscribes to the idea.
I think it’s also, in reality, a psychological and health disaster for many people who reach their “goal” The mind and body need to be thoroughly exercised throughout life.
Everyone's different, I guess. I retired very early (just couldn't do it no more) and for a while it was great. But I get a creeping feeling of regret and waste as the years rack up. I think job satisfaction beats money. Wish I'd been a lumberjack.
So, when the 17% for the greens goes down to 5%, where does it split? Strong chance of a LD pickup here on the basis that Lab are crap.
If the LDs gain Chesham and Amersham from the Tories and the Tories gain Batley and Spen from Labour it would be further evidence of the post Brexit realignment of our politics as shown too in the local elections, with Labour getting squeezed outside the big cities and Wales
The tories losing C&A would be surely be a serious problem for Boris, especially if tory turnout was low.
It would also put Tory MPs in Remain or soft Leave seats across the Home Counties at risk from the LDs, though Boris could counteract that with further gains from Labour in Midlands and Northern strong Leave seats like Batley and Spen and Hartlepool
I think it would be a big mistake to assume the tory vote in the south is waning because the conservatives there are disappointed remainers.
I rather think it is partly because the voters there are conservatives.
Labour's Batley And Spen Candidate 'Must Be Working Class', Keir Starmer Told
Ian Lavery, Jon Trickett and Laura Smith draw battle lines as fallout from Hartlepool defeat continue
The joint statement from Lavery’s No Holding Back group, said Starmer must select someone with a working class background, and ideally a key worker, and “not repeat the errors that brought us such a humiliating defeat” in Hartlepool.
While unable to categorically define what was meant by “working class”, the group said it welcomed a debate with the Labour leadership on the issue.
One definition being looked at by the group was “people who have to work in order to provide sufficiently for themselves and their families”.
So, when the 17% for the greens goes down to 5%, where does it split? Strong chance of a LD pickup here on the basis that Lab are crap.
If the LDs gain Chesham and Amersham from the Tories and the Tories gain Batley and Spen from Labour it would be further evidence of the post Brexit realignment of our politics as shown too in the local elections, with Labour getting squeezed outside the big cities and Wales
The tories losing C&A would be surely be a serious problem for Boris, especially if tory turnout was low.
It would also put Tory MPs in Remain or soft Leave seats across the Home Counties at risk from the LDs, though Boris could counteract that with further gains from Labour in Midlands and Northern strong Leave seats like Batley and Spen and Hartlepool
I think it would be a big mistake to assume the tory vote in the south is waning because the conservatives there are disappointed remainers.
I rather think it is partly because the voters there are conservatives.
It is mainly due to Brexit and at a local level rising Nimbyism in the South East, even in 2019 at the general elections there was a swing from the Tories to the LDs in most Home Counties Remain seats relative to 2017 once Boris had taken over even before the lockdown and the big spending despite the swing from Labour to the Tories in the Midlands and North. In the May 2019 locals the LDs also made big gains from the Tories in places like Guildford
So, when the 17% for the greens goes down to 5%, where does it split? Strong chance of a LD pickup here on the basis that Lab are crap.
If the LDs gain Chesham and Amersham from the Tories and the Tories gain Batley and Spen from Labour it would be further evidence of the post Brexit realignment of our politics as shown too in the local elections, with Labour getting squeezed outside the big cities and Wales
The tories losing C&A would be surely be a serious problem for Boris, especially if tory turnout was low.
Not if the turnout is low - classic by-election moan tactic fronm the voters. I's be much more worried if the turnout was high!
Opposition Leader Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Date of poll % % % Thatcher 38 51 -13 Nov 1978 Foot 13 69 -56 Aug 1982 Kinnock 27 61 -34 Dec 1988 Smith 33 41 -8 May 1993 Blair 42 35 +7 Sep 1996 Hague 19 56 -37 Jan 2000 Duncan Smith 16 53 -37 Feb 2003 Howard 23 49 -26 Jun 2005 Cameron 23 45 -22 Sep 2007 Miliband 25 63 -38 Dec 2014 Corbyn 17 72 -55 Feb 2019 Either it's a blip, or Starmer's toast.
Apparently Novavax is delaying seeking regulatory approval until Q3. Which doesn't seem to fit with them already having unblinded phase 3 trials here and being under review by the MHRA.
Winning two by-elections from the Opposition on the trot in mid-term would be truly remarkable, especially if the Conservatives manage to retain Chesham and Amersham.
Unofficial encouragement for Labour tactical voting could be crucial, and a very early test case of whether Starmer finally understands the importance of co-operation.
Because a LibDem win at Chesham and Amersham helps Starmer how? Just makes him look like a bigger loser if their deposit is gone too (which, realistically, it needs to happen for the LibDems to pull off a win). LibDems with the Big Mo to beat Boris - not really what Labour need, in a seat they were 4,200 ahead of the LibDems as recently as 2017. Unless there is a quid pro quo at Batley and Spen.
But the LibDems only have 4.7% at B&S, so not much to offer in return - even if they barely campaign there. If the Tories have a solid Brexiteer as their candidate there, they should mop up most of the Brexit Party/HWD Independent vote's combined 8,000 votes from 2019. With Boris and his Blimp making several visits, it's looking like another Hartlepool to me.
Chesham and Amersham needs the Greens not to stand, for starters. But again - why would they do that? They are the Party coming out the local elections with their tails up - not the LibDems, certainly not Labour. They could be looking for third place.
2 for 2 for the Tories in these by-elections is my reading of it.
Opposition Leader Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Date of poll % % % Thatcher 38 51 -13 Nov 1978 Foot 13 69 -56 Aug 1982 Kinnock 27 61 -34 Dec 1988 Smith 33 41 -8 May 1993 Blair 42 35 +7 Sep 1996 Hague 19 56 -37 Jan 2000 Duncan Smith 16 53 -37 Feb 2003 Howard 23 49 -26 Jun 2005 Cameron 23 45 -22 Sep 2007 Miliband 25 63 -38 Dec 2014 Corbyn 17 72 -55 Feb 2019 Either it's a blip, or Starmer's toast.
The only saving grace for Starmer is that the last 14 months the polls have been largely driven by the pandemic.
If this is the norm for the post pandemic phase then he's like a stepmom on Pornhub.
The only question is does the PLP have the desire to remove him?
Opposition Leader Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Date of poll % % % Thatcher 38 51 -13 Nov 1978 Foot 13 69 -56 Aug 1982 Kinnock 27 61 -34 Dec 1988 Smith 33 41 -8 May 1993 Blair 42 35 +7 Sep 1996 Hague 19 56 -37 Jan 2000 Duncan Smith 16 53 -37 Feb 2003 Howard 23 49 -26 Jun 2005 Cameron 23 45 -22 Sep 2007 Miliband 25 63 -38 Dec 2014 Corbyn 17 72 -55 Feb 2019 Either it's a blip, or Starmer's toast.
So on -48% Starmer is still better than Corbyn's -55% and Foot's -56% but nobody else, even Hague, IDS and Ed Miliband were doing a bit better than he is at their lowest point
So, when the 17% for the greens goes down to 5%, where does it split? Strong chance of a LD pickup here on the basis that Lab are crap.
If the LDs gain Chesham and Amersham from the Tories and the Tories gain Batley and Spen from Labour it would be further evidence of the post Brexit realignment of our politics as shown too in the local elections, with Labour getting squeezed outside the big cities and Wales
The tories losing C&A would be surely be a serious problem for Boris, especially if tory turnout was low.
It would also put Tory MPs in Remain or soft Leave seats across the Home Counties at risk from the LDs, though Boris could counteract that with further gains from Labour in Midlands and Northern strong Leave seats like Batley and Spen and Hartlepool
I think it would be a big mistake to assume the tory vote in the south is waning because the conservatives there are disappointed remainers.
I rather think it is partly because the voters there are conservatives.
I think the Cons could loose urban southern seats like High Wycombe and Bournemouth. The Tories though have to prove themselves up North. There will come a point when Brexit won't be the issue. It will be if Johnson promises on this so called levelling up is real or not. If Labour ever gets its arse in gear again, people could so easily switch back to Labour.
So, in fairness, he has finally cut through and is known by the voters. That was what he was aiming for, so it’s one objective down.
It also shows that even before the local elections, he was already in big trouble.
How many LOTOs have been this unpopular then gone on to win a general election?
I think Dave's worst rating with Ipsos Mori was minus -25 and he went onto become LOTO.
With YouGov it was minus 30 something.
Both were during the first Brown bounce.
IIRC they were the worst ratings for a LOTO to become PM.
A worse net ratings and same gross positive than Jo Swinson AFTER the 2019 GE where she lost her seat!
I see Corbyn once managed GP of 13 in the lead up to that election, but Sir Keir is more or less at Jezza levels of popularity now (when Jez was at his least popular)
Winning two by-elections from the Opposition on the trot in mid-term would be truly remarkable, especially if the Conservatives manage to retain Chesham and Amersham.
Unofficial encouragement for Labour tactical voting could be crucial, and a very early test case of whether Starmer finally understands the importance of co-operation.
Because a LibDem win at Chesham and Amersham helps Starmer how? Just makes him look like a bigger loser if their deposit is gone too (which, realistically, it needs to happen for the LibDems to pull off a win). LibDems with the Big Mo to beat Boris - not really what Labour need, in a seat they were 4,200 ahead of the LibDems as recently as 2017. Unless there is a quid pro quo at Batley and Spen.
But the LibDems only have 4.7% at B&S, so not much to offer in return - even if they barely campaign there. If the Tories have a solid Brexiteer as their candidate there, they should mop up most of the Brexit Party/HWD Independent vote's combined 8,000 votes from 2019. With Boris and his Blimp making several visits, it's looking like another Hartlepool to me.
Chesham and Amersham needs the Greens not to stand, for starters. But again - why would they do that? They are the Party coming out the local elections with their tails up - not the LibDems, certainly not Labour. They could be looking for third place.
2 for 2 for the Tories in these by-elections is my reading of it.
In most Home Counties seats the LDs, not Labour are the Tories main challengers and the LDs are far more likely to back Labour in a future hung parliament than they were in 2010.
Batley and Spen may depend on whether the HWDI candidate stands again and splits the Leave vote, enabling Labour to scrape back in
Opposition Leader Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Date of poll % % % Thatcher 38 51 -13 Nov 1978 Foot 13 69 -56 Aug 1982 Kinnock 27 61 -34 Dec 1988 Smith 33 41 -8 May 1993 Blair 42 35 +7 Sep 1996 Hague 19 56 -37 Jan 2000 Duncan Smith 16 53 -37 Feb 2003 Howard 23 49 -26 Jun 2005 Cameron 23 45 -22 Sep 2007 Miliband 25 63 -38 Dec 2014 Corbyn 17 72 -55 Feb 2019 Either it's a blip, or Starmer's toast.
The only saving grace for Starmer is that the last 14 months the polls have been largely driven by the pandemic.
If this is the norm for the post pandemic phase then he's like a stepmom on Pornhub.
The only question is does the PLP have the desire to remove him?
I keep coming back to the question, that nobody's really answered - who would you replace him with?
Opposition Leader Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Date of poll % % % Thatcher 38 51 -13 Nov 1978 Foot 13 69 -56 Aug 1982 Kinnock 27 61 -34 Dec 1988 Smith 33 41 -8 May 1993 Blair 42 35 +7 Sep 1996 Hague 19 56 -37 Jan 2000 Duncan Smith 16 53 -37 Feb 2003 Howard 23 49 -26 Jun 2005 Cameron 23 45 -22 Sep 2007 Miliband 25 63 -38 Dec 2014 Corbyn 17 72 -55 Feb 2019 Either it's a blip, or Starmer's toast.
The only saving grace for Starmer is that the last 14 months the polls have been largely driven by the pandemic.
If this is the norm for the post pandemic phase then he's like a stepmom on Pornhub.
The only question is does the PLP have the desire to remove him?
That's the bit I'm not qualified to read.
But I get the impression that some members of the PLP want him gone and would be happy to make trouble for him, no matter how damaging that is to the PLP as a whole. More the thousand cuts to John Major than the swift brutal felling of IDS.
On class: a huge amount of classification in the UK goes on based on your accent, where you live, what your parents did for a living and where you went to school.
It probably shouldn't be this way but, let's face it, we all know it's true.
Opposition Leader Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Date of poll % % % Thatcher 38 51 -13 Nov 1978 Foot 13 69 -56 Aug 1982 Kinnock 27 61 -34 Dec 1988 Smith 33 41 -8 May 1993 Blair 42 35 +7 Sep 1996 Hague 19 56 -37 Jan 2000 Duncan Smith 16 53 -37 Feb 2003 Howard 23 49 -26 Jun 2005 Cameron 23 45 -22 Sep 2007 Miliband 25 63 -38 Dec 2014 Corbyn 17 72 -55 Feb 2019 Either it's a blip, or Starmer's toast.
The only saving grace for Starmer is that the last 14 months the polls have been largely driven by the pandemic.
If this is the norm for the post pandemic phase then he's like a stepmom on Pornhub.
The only question is does the PLP have the desire to remove him?
I keep coming back to the question, that nobody's really answered - who would you replace him with?
Major Dan Jarvis.
Labour have a patriotism problem/perception and he'd fix that.
Chesham and Amersham needs the Greens not to stand, for starters. But again - why would they do that? They are the Party coming out the local elections with their tails up - not the LibDems, certainly not Labour. They could be looking for third place.
2 for 2 for the Tories in these by-elections is my reading of it.
Fully agree that the Greens need to stand down in C&A for the LibDems to win, and they won't.
That said, the LDs have much better ground game than the Greens. Greens do ok at putting up posters in their own windows but I have never seen a Green canvasser.
Opposition Leader Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Date of poll % % % Thatcher 38 51 -13 Nov 1978 Foot 13 69 -56 Aug 1982 Kinnock 27 61 -34 Dec 1988 Smith 33 41 -8 May 1993 Blair 42 35 +7 Sep 1996 Hague 19 56 -37 Jan 2000 Duncan Smith 16 53 -37 Feb 2003 Howard 23 49 -26 Jun 2005 Cameron 23 45 -22 Sep 2007 Miliband 25 63 -38 Dec 2014 Corbyn 17 72 -55 Feb 2019 Either it's a blip, or Starmer's toast.
The only saving grace for Starmer is that the last 14 months the polls have been largely driven by the pandemic.
If this is the norm for the post pandemic phase then he's like a stepmom on Pornhub.
The only question is does the PLP have the desire to remove him?
I keep coming back to the question, that nobody's really answered - who would you replace him with?
Major Dan Jarvis.
Well quite. Personable, sane, doesn't keep banging on about Palestine. But does he want the job? All the signs I've seen are that he doesn't.
Opposition Leader Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Date of poll % % % Thatcher 38 51 -13 Nov 1978 Foot 13 69 -56 Aug 1982 Kinnock 27 61 -34 Dec 1988 Smith 33 41 -8 May 1993 Blair 42 35 +7 Sep 1996 Hague 19 56 -37 Jan 2000 Duncan Smith 16 53 -37 Feb 2003 Howard 23 49 -26 Jun 2005 Cameron 23 45 -22 Sep 2007 Miliband 25 63 -38 Dec 2014 Corbyn 17 72 -55 Feb 2019 Either it's a blip, or Starmer's toast.
The only saving grace for Starmer is that the last 14 months the polls have been largely driven by the pandemic.
If this is the norm for the post pandemic phase then he's like a stepmom on Pornhub.
The only question is does the PLP have the desire to remove him?
I think the PLP need to learn to be ruthless on leaders that the public just don't click with. The party's downfall is keeping lameduck leaders when they know very well they are doing badly.
Winning two by-elections from the Opposition on the trot in mid-term would be truly remarkable, especially if the Conservatives manage to retain Chesham and Amersham.
Unofficial encouragement for Labour tactical voting could be crucial, and a very early test case of whether Starmer finally understands the importance of co-operation.
Because a LibDem win at Chesham and Amersham helps Starmer how? Just makes him look like a bigger loser if their deposit is gone too (which, realistically, it needs to happen for the LibDems to pull off a win). LibDems with the Big Mo to beat Boris - not really what Labour need, in a seat they were 4,200 ahead of the LibDems as recently as 2017. Unless there is a quid pro quo at Batley and Spen.
But the LibDems only have 4.7% at B&S, so not much to offer in return - even if they barely campaign there. If the Tories have a solid Brexiteer as their candidate there, they should mop up most of the Brexit Party/HWD Independent vote's combined 8,000 votes from 2019. With Boris and his Blimp making several visits, it's looking like another Hartlepool to me.
Chesham and Amersham needs the Greens not to stand, for starters. But again - why would they do that? They are the Party coming out the local elections with their tails up - not the LibDems, certainly not Labour. They could be looking for third place.
2 for 2 for the Tories in these by-elections is my reading of it.
In most Home Counties seats the LDs, not Labour are the Tories main challengers and the LDs are far more likely to back Labour in a future hung parliament than they were in 2010.
Batley and Spen may depend on whether the HWDI candidate stands again and splits the Leave vote, enabling Labour to scrape back in
No doubt, Boris is currently listening to their demands to have the Heavy Woollen District upgraded with gold wallpaper.....
On topic, I agree with Mike - a tight race and depends on candidates.
It's interesting how important your formative experiences are. I broke my duck in political campaigning in the 1990s when the Lib Dems ran supreme at local level and in by-elections.
I therefore have a lasting terror of them I can't shake, and I feel a knot in my stomach whenever I see lots of yellow diamonds, even though their electoral performance has been poor for the last 10 years.
Opposition Leader Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Date of poll % % % Thatcher 38 51 -13 Nov 1978 Foot 13 69 -56 Aug 1982 Kinnock 27 61 -34 Dec 1988 Smith 33 41 -8 May 1993 Blair 42 35 +7 Sep 1996 Hague 19 56 -37 Jan 2000 Duncan Smith 16 53 -37 Feb 2003 Howard 23 49 -26 Jun 2005 Cameron 23 45 -22 Sep 2007 Miliband 25 63 -38 Dec 2014 Corbyn 17 72 -55 Feb 2019 Either it's a blip, or Starmer's toast.
The only saving grace for Starmer is that the last 14 months the polls have been largely driven by the pandemic.
If this is the norm for the post pandemic phase then he's like a stepmom on Pornhub.
The only question is does the PLP have the desire to remove him?
I keep coming back to the question, that nobody's really answered - who would you replace him with?
Major Dan Jarvis.
Well quite. Personable, sane, doesn't keep banging on about Palestine. But does he want the job? All the signs I've seen are that he doesn't.
I think his kids are now old enough for him to become Leader of Her Majesty's Most Loyal Opposition.
Opposition Leader Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Date of poll % % % Thatcher 38 51 -13 Nov 1978 Foot 13 69 -56 Aug 1982 Kinnock 27 61 -34 Dec 1988 Smith 33 41 -8 May 1993 Blair 42 35 +7 Sep 1996 Hague 19 56 -37 Jan 2000 Duncan Smith 16 53 -37 Feb 2003 Howard 23 49 -26 Jun 2005 Cameron 23 45 -22 Sep 2007 Miliband 25 63 -38 Dec 2014 Corbyn 17 72 -55 Feb 2019 Either it's a blip, or Starmer's toast.
The only saving grace for Starmer is that the last 14 months the polls have been largely driven by the pandemic.
If this is the norm for the post pandemic phase then he's like a stepmom on Pornhub.
The only question is does the PLP have the desire to remove him?
I think the PLP need to learn to be ruthless on leaders that the public just don't click with. The party's downfall is keeping lameduck leaders when they know very well they are doing badly.
It's a good point. The tories can be much more ruthless about their leaders when they need to be.
Opposition Leader Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Date of poll % % % Thatcher 38 51 -13 Nov 1978 Foot 13 69 -56 Aug 1982 Kinnock 27 61 -34 Dec 1988 Smith 33 41 -8 May 1993 Blair 42 35 +7 Sep 1996 Hague 19 56 -37 Jan 2000 Duncan Smith 16 53 -37 Feb 2003 Howard 23 49 -26 Jun 2005 Cameron 23 45 -22 Sep 2007 Miliband 25 63 -38 Dec 2014 Corbyn 17 72 -55 Feb 2019 Either it's a blip, or Starmer's toast.
The only saving grace for Starmer is that the last 14 months the polls have been largely driven by the pandemic.
If this is the norm for the post pandemic phase then he's like a stepmom on Pornhub.
The only question is does the PLP have the desire to remove him?
I keep coming back to the question, that nobody's really answered - who would you replace him with?
Major Dan Jarvis.
Well quite. Personable, sane, doesn't keep banging on about Palestine. But does he want the job? All the signs I've seen are that he doesn't.
More to the point, what would the membership think? He was an evil baby murderer in their eyes.
The Queen's Speech - I haven't read about it. Can I assume that the fact that it has attracted little, if any, comment on here indicates that it is thin gruel, with nothing new to say and no surprises? And that social care has been kicked into the long grass again?
Interestingly there is 1 line in that briefing that justifies doing it - from the summary so you don't need to read all of it.
International observers have commented on the trust-based nature of British general elections and recommended that asking for voter ID could improve the integrity of polls.
Given that we preach to others how to run their elections it's only fair that we follow their advice in it's entirety.
And there is zero mention of postal fraud which is worth emphasising given people's viewpoint that that is where the real fraud occurs.
Yes, but the observers probably didn't realise how weird GB is in not having proper ID cards.
Opposition Leader Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Date of poll % % % Thatcher 38 51 -13 Nov 1978 Foot 13 69 -56 Aug 1982 Kinnock 27 61 -34 Dec 1988 Smith 33 41 -8 May 1993 Blair 42 35 +7 Sep 1996 Hague 19 56 -37 Jan 2000 Duncan Smith 16 53 -37 Feb 2003 Howard 23 49 -26 Jun 2005 Cameron 23 45 -22 Sep 2007 Miliband 25 63 -38 Dec 2014 Corbyn 17 72 -55 Feb 2019 Either it's a blip, or Starmer's toast.
The only saving grace for Starmer is that the last 14 months the polls have been largely driven by the pandemic.
If this is the norm for the post pandemic phase then he's like a stepmom on Pornhub.
The only question is does the PLP have the desire to remove him?
I think the PLP need to learn to be ruthless on leaders that the public just don't click with. The party's downfall is keeping lameduck leaders when they know very well they are doing badly.
It's a good point. The tories can be much more ruthless when they need to be.
As William Hague puts it, the Conservative Party is an absolute monarchy moderated by regicide.
Winning two by-elections from the Opposition on the trot in mid-term would be truly remarkable, especially if the Conservatives manage to retain Chesham and Amersham.
Unofficial encouragement for Labour tactical voting could be crucial, and a very early test case of whether Starmer finally understands the importance of co-operation.
Because a LibDem win at Chesham and Amersham helps Starmer how? Just makes him look like a bigger loser if their deposit is gone too (which, realistically, it needs to happen for the LibDems to pull off a win). LibDems with the Big Mo to beat Boris - not really what Labour need, in a seat they were 4,200 ahead of the LibDems as recently as 2017. Unless there is a quid pro quo at Batley and Spen.
But the LibDems only have 4.7% at B&S, so not much to offer in return - even if they barely campaign there. If the Tories have a solid Brexiteer as their candidate there, they should mop up most of the Brexit Party/HWD Independent vote's combined 8,000 votes from 2019. With Boris and his Blimp making several visits, it's looking like another Hartlepool to me.
Chesham and Amersham needs the Greens not to stand, for starters. But again - why would they do that? They are the Party coming out the local elections with their tails up - not the LibDems, certainly not Labour. They could be looking for third place.
2 for 2 for the Tories in these by-elections is my reading of it.
In most Home Counties seats the LDs, not Labour are the Tories main challengers and the LDs are far more likely to back Labour in a future hung parliament than they were in 2010.
Batley and Spen may depend on whether the HWDI candidate stands again and splits the Leave vote, enabling Labour to scrape back in
No doubt, Boris is currently listening to their demands to have the Heavy Woollen District upgraded with gold wallpaper.....
Great "loyal address" - surprising though to hear that Shailesh Vara was the first non-white Conservative to speak from the dispatch box. Its something you don't think about anymore but when you consider the party and makeup of Parliament now compared to twenty years ago, with the makeup of the Cabinet, its a real transformation within one generation.
Opposition Leader Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Date of poll % % % Thatcher 38 51 -13 Nov 1978 Foot 13 69 -56 Aug 1982 Kinnock 27 61 -34 Dec 1988 Smith 33 41 -8 May 1993 Blair 42 35 +7 Sep 1996 Hague 19 56 -37 Jan 2000 Duncan Smith 16 53 -37 Feb 2003 Howard 23 49 -26 Jun 2005 Cameron 23 45 -22 Sep 2007 Miliband 25 63 -38 Dec 2014 Corbyn 17 72 -55 Feb 2019 Either it's a blip, or Starmer's toast.
The only saving grace for Starmer is that the last 14 months the polls have been largely driven by the pandemic.
If this is the norm for the post pandemic phase then he's like a stepmom on Pornhub.
The only question is does the PLP have the desire to remove him?
I keep coming back to the question, that nobody's really answered - who would you replace him with?
Major Dan Jarvis.
Labour have a patriotism problem/perception and he'd fix that.
Totally agree. Kind-of a northerner too. Well a lot more northern creds than the Starmer types.
On class: a huge amount of classification in the UK goes on based on your accent, where you live, what your parents did for a living and where you went to school.
It probably shouldn't be this way but, let's face it, we all know it's true.
"It is impossible for an Englishman to open his mouth without making some other Englishman hate or despise him."
I was totally wrong about Hartlepool so dyor - but I expect narrow Tory/Labour holds in Chesham/Batley
I'm not sure about Chesham & Amersham being narrow. Lib Dems will come second, but surely the point of Starmer is he appeals more in the home counties than Corbyn ever did. Plus if it happens on the same day as Batley & Spen then much of the focus will be up North and the Lib Dems might struggle to get the attention they might get in a stand alone by-election.
Tories picking a remainy Nicky Morgan/Justine Greening type candidate (constituency 55% remain) should see them comfortably over the line against a backdrop of lockdown loosening and good weather. Cheryl Gillan herself was a 'leaver' and won by 15,000 votes in 2019 so not sure it's going to be an obvious constituency for a Boris/Brexit backlash.
Opposition Leader Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Date of poll % % % Thatcher 38 51 -13 Nov 1978 Foot 13 69 -56 Aug 1982 Kinnock 27 61 -34 Dec 1988 Smith 33 41 -8 May 1993 Blair 42 35 +7 Sep 1996 Hague 19 56 -37 Jan 2000 Duncan Smith 16 53 -37 Feb 2003 Howard 23 49 -26 Jun 2005 Cameron 23 45 -22 Sep 2007 Miliband 25 63 -38 Dec 2014 Corbyn 17 72 -55 Feb 2019 Either it's a blip, or Starmer's toast.
Starmer's worst with Ipsos Mori is -11, only YouGov are showing crazily negative figures (so far)
I was totally wrong about Hartlepool so dyor - but I expect narrow Tory/Labour holds in Chesham/Batley
I'm not sure about Chesham & Amersham being narrow. Lib Dems will come second, but surely the point of Starmer is he appeals more in the home counties than Corbyn ever did. Plus if it happens on the same day as Batley & Spen then much of the focus will be up North and the Lib Dems might struggle to get the attention they might get in a stand alone by-election.
Tories picking a remainy Nicky Morgan/Justine Greening type candidate (constituency 55% remain) should see them comfortably over the line against a backdrop of lockdown loosening and good weather. Cheryl Gillan herself was a 'leaver' and won by 15,000 votes in 2019 so not sure it's going to be an obvious constituency for a Boris/Brexit backlash.
If you are campaigning there the biggest issue (for Amersham at least) is the impact of the HS2 construction work.
For Chesham it's a different issue - as Chesham is very much Watford / High Wycombe it's where you live when you can't afford anywhere else.
Opposition Leader Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Date of poll % % % Thatcher 38 51 -13 Nov 1978 Foot 13 69 -56 Aug 1982 Kinnock 27 61 -34 Dec 1988 Smith 33 41 -8 May 1993 Blair 42 35 +7 Sep 1996 Hague 19 56 -37 Jan 2000 Duncan Smith 16 53 -37 Feb 2003 Howard 23 49 -26 Jun 2005 Cameron 23 45 -22 Sep 2007 Miliband 25 63 -38 Dec 2014 Corbyn 17 72 -55 Feb 2019 Either it's a blip, or Starmer's toast.
The only saving grace for Starmer is that the last 14 months the polls have been largely driven by the pandemic.
If this is the norm for the post pandemic phase then he's like a stepmom on Pornhub.
The only question is does the PLP have the desire to remove him?
I keep coming back to the question, that nobody's really answered - who would you replace him with?
Major Dan Jarvis.
Well quite. Personable, sane, doesn't keep banging on about Palestine. But does he want the job? All the signs I've seen are that he doesn't.
I've never heard Dan Jarvis speak, or what he really is like. All I know is that he was in the armed forces and that is why many think he could be good for Labour. The image of an ex squaddie might play well with the public. Other than that I don't know.
LabourList says that one candidate favoured by Labour leadership for their nomination is Leeds Cllr Salma Arif.
Just noted the above posted by Andrea (thanks @AndreaParma_82 ). Anyone know anything about this character? A very quick scan of her twitter feed and her concerns seem to be Palestine and women's rights.
I was totally wrong about Hartlepool so dyor - but I expect narrow Tory/Labour holds in Chesham/Batley
I'm not sure about Chesham & Amersham being narrow. Lib Dems will come second, but surely the point of Starmer is he appeals more in the home counties than Corbyn ever did. Plus if it happens on the same day as Batley & Spen then much of the focus will be up North and the Lib Dems might struggle to get the attention they might get in a stand alone by-election.
Tories picking a remainy Nicky Morgan/Justine Greening type candidate (constituency 55% remain) should see them comfortably over the line against a backdrop of lockdown loosening and good weather. Cheryl Gillan herself was a 'leaver' and won by 15,000 votes in 2019 so not sure it's going to be an obvious constituency for a Boris/Brexit backlash.
It was 55% Remain and the Tories local election share in the area last week was 12% below the share Cheryl Gillan got even at the 2019 general election with the LDs a clear second and Labour 4th behind the Greens.
If the LDs squeeze the Green and Labour votes it could be close
Apparently Novavax is delaying seeking regulatory approval until Q3. Which doesn't seem to fit with them already having unblinded phase 3 trials here and being under review by the MHRA.
They have made a submission to the MHRA based on interim data, but it's not really enough to get approval and the rate of "events" has slowed to a crawl in the UK and US (where the main trials are taking place) as the infection rate has completely crashed. There are also some ethical concerns that control group members remain unvaccinated even though three approved vaccines are now widely available in both countries so the trial itself may need to be reformulated a bit to be measured against a different vaccine which is yet another complication for them.
The fastest movers have had the effect of making it very difficult for later arrivals to get approved as well because the bar is usually set higher given that we have got safe efficacious vaccines already approved. If Novavax had started their trial just 6 weeks earlier they'd have got approval in Feb/March just like Moderna. Novavax will get approval but these delays must be extremely frustrating for them and their clients (and people waiting to be vaccinated).
Loyal address proposed by Shailesh Vara MP (North West Cambridgeshire) and seconded by Katherine Fletcher MP (South Ribble) - a BAME man and northern woman.....
I was totally wrong about Hartlepool so dyor - but I expect narrow Tory/Labour holds in Chesham/Batley
I'm not sure about Chesham & Amersham being narrow. Lib Dems will come second, but surely the point of Starmer is he appeals more in the home counties than Corbyn ever did. Plus if it happens on the same day as Batley & Spen then much of the focus will be up North and the Lib Dems might struggle to get the attention they might get in a stand alone by-election.
Tories picking a remainy Nicky Morgan/Justine Greening type candidate (constituency 55% remain) should see them comfortably over the line against a backdrop of lockdown loosening and good weather. Cheryl Gillan herself was a 'leaver' and won by 15,000 votes in 2019 so not sure it's going to be an obvious constituency for a Boris/Brexit backlash.
If you are campaigning there the biggest issue (for Amersham at least) is the impact of the HS2 construction work.
For Chesham it's a different issue - as Chesham is very much Watford / High Wycombe it's where you live when you can't afford anywhere else.
I presume HS2 would have been a similar issue in 2019. Just noticed the Tories have selected Peter Fleet - Chairman, Advisor and NED; former Group Vice President of global auto manufacturer; previously lived in Cologne, Bangkok and Shanghai.
Comments
So if the by election is held in July or September I'd expect a Tory gain due to the feelgood factor.
You think Labour will hold here?
I'm also not surprised by the Greeks. I have a Greek friend, and they are all taught at school to think about the history of ancient Greece and not about the sorry last two thousand years.
It really doesn't contain anything of interest
The Voter ID briefing is separate and can be found at https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9187/
It’s called “financial independence retire early” in the vocab of those over at monevator and on r/FIRE Reddit
A key part of it is adjusting your wants/needs as well as building up assets/wealth/passive income.
Personally I don’t like “fire” as an aspiration. I see it as a lazy desire to live off other people, rather than economically contribute. It becomes less and less economically viable, the more of society subscribes to the idea.
I think it’s also, in reality, a psychological and health disaster for many people who reach their “goal” The mind and body need to be thoroughly exercised throughout life.
I may retire in a little over 7 years time at the age of 50, I will be living off my own investments/savings/pensions.
I will be contributing by paying taxes on all the things I buy/contributing to the salaries of others, and thus the exchequer.
If you're working hard enough to save enough to retire at 50 you'll have contributed a lot more to the exchequer than if you'd spread those earnings out over another fifteen years.
Clare County Council has been forced to "pause" plans to erect a controversial statue of a Púca in the town of Ennistymon, after widespread local criticism of the proposed piece that it was "grotesque and scary".
The Council proposed placing the 6ft-tall interpretive art piece on a plinth at the end of Lower Church Hill in the town, as part of enhanced tourism and visitor measures to encourage more people to stay there.
The Council said the proposed "Púca of Ennistymon" sculpture was to form part of a €500,000 capital investment programme by Fáilte Ireland aimed at increasing visitor dwell in the town as well as improving and developing signage, pedestrian access and additional car parking.
This was to develop the town's untapped potential from being a transit zone that people pass through, to a destination where visitors want to stay longer and experience local culture.
https://www.rte.ie/news/munster/2021/0511/1220954-clare-puca-statue-ennistymon/
International observers have commented on the trust-based nature of British general elections
and recommended that asking for voter ID could improve the integrity of polls.
Given that we preach to others how to run their elections it's only fair that we follow their advice in it's entirety.
And there is zero mention of postal fraud which is worth emphasising given people's viewpoint that that is where the real fraud occurs.
What's left of the attitude?
How many LOTOs have been this unpopular then gone on to win a general election?
England 76,110 1st doses / 192,723 2nd doses
Scotland 3,718 / 17,198
Wales 13,680 / 8,261
NI 5,456 / 9,534
https://twitter.com/HugoGye/status/1392103250250317826?s=20
Though I note, for those concerned about the security of postal voting, that the government proposes to grant votes to 3 million Britons who have lived overseas for longer than 15 years...
On YouGov's data it took Corbyn until 2019 before he was this unpopular. Yikes!
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/12/17/corbyn-favourability-plummets-back-election-defeat
Depends on intent and context. You can imagine both being said by the Far Right. And it's hard to imagine anyone but the Far Right pushing the 2nd one.
Are you are into the promotion of a "unifying national identity" btw?
Drives the hard left crazy, who see working class as 14 years down t'pit, pigeons or ferrets, have been arrested 3 times on the picket line.
I could imagine anyone pushing the second. A unifying national identity should include the best bits of your country - that is Tony Blair did with his flag waving "Cool Britannia".
What's the best of Britain that unifies us to you? Yes that's what politicians tend to put forwards in any mainstream party in any country around the globe. If you consider that "off" rather than "meaningless guff everyone should find agreeable" then I think your political antenna is a bit broken.
IF I was Starmer that would be my first rule. If its not your job to talk about Israel/Palestine then stop f8cking talking about Israel/Palestine.
I'm guessing Obama and Biden who said that are "far right" since @kinabalu decreed that seeking to have a "unifying national identity" is "far right".
I rather think it is partly because the voters there are conservatives.
With YouGov it was minus 30 something.
Both were during the first Brown bounce.
IIRC they were the worst ratings for a LOTO to become PM.
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/opposition-party-leaders-ipsos-mori-satisfaction-ratings-1977-2019
Opposition Leader Satisfied Dissatisfied Net satisfaction Date of poll
% % %
Thatcher 38 51 -13 Nov 1978
Foot 13 69 -56 Aug 1982
Kinnock 27 61 -34 Dec 1988
Smith 33 41 -8 May 1993
Blair 42 35 +7 Sep 1996
Hague 19 56 -37 Jan 2000
Duncan Smith 16 53 -37 Feb 2003
Howard 23 49 -26 Jun 2005
Cameron 23 45 -22 Sep 2007
Miliband 25 63 -38 Dec 2014
Corbyn 17 72 -55 Feb 2019
Either it's a blip, or Starmer's toast.
Apparently Novavax is delaying seeking regulatory approval until Q3. Which doesn't seem to fit with them already having unblinded phase 3 trials here and being under review by the MHRA.
If it’s after the election, then Burnham, Balls, David Miliband et al are all potentially in play.
According to ship finder, both HMS Mersey, and an unnamed warship on maritime security, are sailing about out there.
But the LibDems only have 4.7% at B&S, so not much to offer in return - even if they barely campaign there. If the Tories have a solid Brexiteer as their candidate there, they should mop up most of the Brexit Party/HWD Independent vote's combined 8,000 votes from 2019. With Boris and his Blimp making several visits, it's looking like another Hartlepool to me.
Chesham and Amersham needs the Greens not to stand, for starters. But again - why would they do that? They are the Party coming out the local elections with their tails up - not the LibDems, certainly not Labour. They could be looking for third place.
2 for 2 for the Tories in these by-elections is my reading of it.
If this is the norm for the post pandemic phase then he's like a stepmom on Pornhub.
The only question is does the PLP have the desire to remove him?
If Labour ever gets its arse in gear again, people could so easily switch back to Labour.
I see Corbyn once managed GP of 13 in the lead up to that election, but Sir Keir is more or less at Jezza levels of popularity now (when Jez was at his least popular)
Batley and Spen may depend on whether the HWDI candidate stands again and splits the Leave vote, enabling Labour to scrape back in
But I get the impression that some members of the PLP want him gone and would be happy to make trouble for him, no matter how damaging that is to the PLP as a whole. More the thousand cuts to John Major than the swift brutal felling of IDS.
Oh wait, that's not what your wife meant.
It probably shouldn't be this way but, let's face it, we all know it's true.
Labour have a patriotism problem/perception and he'd fix that.
That said, the LDs have much better ground game than the Greens. Greens do ok at putting up posters in their own windows but I have never seen a Green canvasser.
Just look how loved and admired he is in Brexit Wales.
It's interesting how important your formative experiences are. I broke my duck in political campaigning in the 1990s when the Lib Dems ran supreme at local level and in by-elections.
I therefore have a lasting terror of them I can't shake, and I feel a knot in my stomach whenever I see lots of yellow diamonds, even though their electoral performance has been poor for the last 10 years.
Tories picking a remainy Nicky Morgan/Justine Greening type candidate (constituency 55% remain) should see them comfortably over the line against a backdrop of lockdown loosening and good weather. Cheryl Gillan herself was a 'leaver' and won by 15,000 votes in 2019 so not sure it's going to be an obvious constituency for a Boris/Brexit backlash.
Starmer's worst with Ipsos Mori is -11, only YouGov are showing crazily negative figures (so far)
For Chesham it's a different issue - as Chesham is very much Watford / High Wycombe it's where you live when you can't afford anywhere else.
If the LDs squeeze the Green and Labour votes it could be close
The fastest movers have had the effect of making it very difficult for later arrivals to get approved as well because the bar is usually set higher given that we have got safe efficacious vaccines already approved. If Novavax had started their trial just 6 weeks earlier they'd have got approval in Feb/March just like Moderna. Novavax will get approval but these delays must be extremely frustrating for them and their clients (and people waiting to be vaccinated).
Would think he'll be a decent fit there.