Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.
He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
I disagree: I think the Conservatives have only modest opportunities to take further seats from Labour in the old "Red Wall", but are under threat 20-30 seats if tactical voting returns. My central prediction is that the Conservatives end up with a 35-50 seat majority next time around, off a broadly similar vote share as 2019.
I can see the Conservatives sweeping the north if they carry on like this, which I think they will
Human nature is to attribute one's successes to oneself, while blaming others for whatever problems might befall you.
Which is why governments tend to lose popularity over time. Objectively, the period from 1992 to 1997 was one of great prosperity, with rapid growth, falling unemployment, and the like. Yet the government had managed to store up enough grievances, and their opponents were willing to tactically vote.
My gut is that the Conservative vote share will hold up well in 2024 (and which, by the way, would be the highest vote share of either Lab or Con since... well... a long time ago...). But it only takes a modest amount of tactical voting for that to result in them seeing a smaller majority.
Except that, in 2020, the government had three events which caused their rating to fall as a visible step change, with stasis in between. One was in May, caused by the Durham fiasco. One was in August, caused by the exam fiasco. One was in December, caused by the lockdown fiasco.
The Great Vaccination reset things, and has given the government another life.
But to bet on the next GE is to bet on the ratio of fiascos to triumphs for this government...
Yes, three years is a long time, so a Labour revival is very possible. Hard to see Starmer going though he should.
The mechanisms to challenge a Labour Leader are a much higher bar than a Tory one.
Stepping back, why exactly do you think Starmer should go? I ask because there is a hell of a lot of spin out there, if not some campaigns against him. Is the by election loss enough (normally it wouldn’t) or was the 1% swing not enough.
Meanwhile, as Labour politicians are kicking lumps out of each other, Priti Patel is engaged in some GOP style voter suppression tactics and other electoral changes that should substantially benefit Conservative candidates.
Yeah it's disgusting. What will count as acceptable ID? OK, driving licence and passport, obvs. But what about work IDs, university IDs, any other non-governmental IDs with a photo on?
If the government expect us to show photo ID to vote, then they should avail us of a universal form of photo ID, issued free of charge. A national ID card, if you will.
Of course, those on the right will scream that it is an intolerable outrage to expect a freeborn Englishman to carry an ID card; that will make us akin to a police state.
Accept when it comes to voting, apparently, when it's being justified to tackle a problem - voter fraud - that doesn't exist in any meaningful way in this country.
It's the shamelessness that really galls.
It's an expensive solution to a non existent problem. As of August 2020, one conviction and one caution had been secured for personation offences at elections held in 2019. There had been 20 allegations and the majority of cases led to no action....
Anyway the big news today and I hope everyone is looking forward to it as much as I am - the Prime Minister telling us whether we are going to be allowed to hug our families.
Be still my beating heart...
A further refinement of the absurd was Nadine Dorries on the R4 this morning, without a trace of irony telling us that we should wait with baited breath to find out whether the PM would announce it this afternoon.
I think that was the most pointless interview I’ve ever heard.
On topic, it's still too early for me to bet on the outcome of the next GE - which is 3 (very long) years away.
It's not too early for me to bet against who will be next PM, and that's where I'm focussing my main effort. I will switch tact about Autumn/Winter 2022.
You think there'll be a change in PM within those three long years?
I expect a change in PM. What I'm less sure about is Boris waiting three long years before calling a general election. The FTPA is on its way out, as pledged in the Conservative manifesto.
The nations are now significantly divided by party.
England is Tory thanks to Johnson turning the old Conservative and Unionist Party into a Blue Labour English Populist Party. I can't see how Johnson lasts much longer (there are always plots to topple the king, Johnson hands the plotters the axe and sticks his head down on the block) but the Tories will.
Wales is Labour thanks to their adaptability over Brexit and the strengthening Welsh identity politics. Wales is no longer that bit attached to England where they talk funny - they are a nation in their own right and increasingly doing things their own way.
Scotland is SNP and we've talked too much already about the forthcoming independence referendum furore.
And NI? Fun times ahead after Arlene "Shit the Bed" Forster has led Norniron out of the UK customs union and into semi-detachment and irrelevance as far as London is concerned. None of the mainstream UK parties trade in NI, but the old two-way fight between Unionists and Nationalists appears to have been joined by a non-aligned centre.
The forthcoming "Team UK" summit will be crucial. We know that Boris is all dominant in England, but in the other home nations he is nowhere. He can choose his moment in history and try to forge a new consensus that sustains partnership and co-operation.
Or he can bang the table as he does the dispatch box, say I have a majority of 82, Westminster rules, shut the fuck up. It doesn't matter that the UK parliament is sovereign over the national parliaments if the people of those nations and those parliaments believe that Westminster is directly acting against their will and their interests in a cavalier you will do what we say manner.
Johnson could be a giant of history. Or a sidenote when a furious Mrs Gove / Cummings alliance sinks him. His problem is that despite being tactically clever and lucky, he has never shown any ideas or aptitude to strategy.
Another way of looking at it is that the nationalists went backwards in both Wales and Scotland.
Rumours of the death of the UK have been greatly exaggerated.
How have the nationalists gone backwards in Scotland? Record turnout. Highest ever vote for the SNP. Highest ever majority of Yes MSPs.
Was chatting to some people yesterday about Boris. One of the things which hit home was about his 'positivity.'
Contrast that with Keir Starmer, and Labour generally, who are miserable moaning minnies by comparison.
It was the 'can do' attitude of Boris which was praised. His galvanising effect which is emblematic of what the tories are doing in the former Red Wall. As someone commented yesterday, it's not these deprived towns which now feel left behind. It's the Labour Party.
Its probably Carrie's "can do " attitude that caused the row about wall paper... at least its not as costly a blunder as Boris Island Airport.... (imagine if that had been started by now....)
Wow you're bitter.
I have little interest in the wallpaper. And no one I know does either.
Nor have I. I have a great deal of interest in lying about where he got the money from, though.
We've said on here before that our PM comes across as someone with whom it would fun to have a drink. Until it came to his turn to pay.
And Good Morning all.
Exactly. The "wallpaper" badging is an attempt to trivialize. It's not the wallpaper scandal. It's the undercover funding scandal.
Yes, good morning.
It is a chaotic mess. It was a mistake for SKS to make it all about the wallpaper. It allowed Boris to come back with the “while you are making a fuss about wallpaper we are doing xyz”.
Making a fuss over second order stuff like this is what you have subordinates for. He could have avoided it, and let one of his invisible shadow cabinet members become a little less invisible.
With his majority he should stop being frit on a few things and go for it - planning changes looked dead due to local opposition but after this week they should feel better.
But he needs to get a grip on social care already.
He risks seriously upsetting voters in the South who are fed up with huge estates being built .
"Risks" is putting it mildly. That's arguably the single biggest factor behind the Tories losing Oxfordshire yesterday.
HMG is at least talking about building in the north, though the risk is that a bonfire of regulations will mean more ticky-tacky in the south-east. Investment in new housing and even new towns should be directed up north and wherever else the local economy needs rejuvenation.
Up North we don't need houses - that's a southern issue.
There is a simple test to housing - are houses prices above 2004 levels - if so you haven't built enough.
Surely there are towns where you can find an entire street given away in a box of cornflakes? HMG should refurbish or replace them and then (almost) give them away, in order to stimulate the local economy.
In the south-east and particularly in London there are huge distortions caused by posh homes being bought off plan as investments, often from overseas, displacing people outwards if they are left empty or replacing ownership with private tenancies.
Nope - they were all sold for £50k plus a decade or so back to southerns wanting to make money from BTL..
If you are lucky enough to get a tenant who isn't into stealing boilers a LHA rate of £550 a month generates a decent return.
The nations are now significantly divided by party.
England is Tory thanks to Johnson turning the old Conservative and Unionist Party into a Blue Labour English Populist Party. I can't see how Johnson lasts much longer (there are always plots to topple the king, Johnson hands the plotters the axe and sticks his head down on the block) but the Tories will.
Wales is Labour thanks to their adaptability over Brexit and the strengthening Welsh identity politics. Wales is no longer that bit attached to England where they talk funny - they are a nation in their own right and increasingly doing things their own way.
Scotland is SNP and we've talked too much already about the forthcoming independence referendum furore.
And NI? Fun times ahead after Arlene "Shit the Bed" Forster has led Norniron out of the UK customs union and into semi-detachment and irrelevance as far as London is concerned. None of the mainstream UK parties trade in NI, but the old two-way fight between Unionists and Nationalists appears to have been joined by a non-aligned centre.
The forthcoming "Team UK" summit will be crucial. We know that Boris is all dominant in England, but in the other home nations he is nowhere. He can choose his moment in history and try to forge a new consensus that sustains partnership and co-operation.
Or he can bang the table as he does the dispatch box, say I have a majority of 82, Westminster rules, shut the fuck up. It doesn't matter that the UK parliament is sovereign over the national parliaments if the people of those nations and those parliaments believe that Westminster is directly acting against their will and their interests in a cavalier you will do what we say manner.
Johnson could be a giant of history. Or a sidenote when a furious Mrs Gove / Cummings alliance sinks him. His problem is that despite being tactically clever and lucky, he has never shown any ideas or aptitude to strategy.
Another way of looking at it is that the nationalists went backwards in both Wales and Scotland.
Rumours of the death of the UK have been greatly exaggerated.
How have the nationalists gone backwards in Scotland? Record turnout. Highest ever vote for the SNP. Highest ever majority of Yes MSPs.
Biggest ever vote for the Tories. SNP failed to get a majority despite huge pandemic boost. Super nationalists Alba completely cratered.
Anyway the big news today and I hope everyone is looking forward to it as much as I am - the Prime Minister telling us whether we are going to be allowed to hug our families.
Be still my beating heart...
Haven't seen my parents in 15 months. Expected them to die if they got Covid. Trust me, there are many of us whose heart is absolutely beating at the prospect of a hug from their mum.
And you need the PM to explain to you the relevant risks?
If you haven't seen your parents in 15 months that is on you. Isolate yourself for 14 days and go to see them.
I’m expecting COVID 19 positive tests to show a week on week rise today and for the zerocovidians to emerge from the woodwork right on cue. I think @another_richard is right about that.
Are the Tories doomed? (Something about Labour being set up well for the 2040s)
One on tribalism in America reminding the author of their native Somalia.
And one on how the Mongol Golden Horde was not barbarous and invented multiculturalism (feels like those aren't mutually exclusive)
Well played, those headlined did indeed grab my attention.
The Somalia-America comparison sounds the most interesting.
Re: Mongols (is there direct connection between Red Hordes and Golden Horde?) check out this clip, great throat singing! Reminds me of Native American music.
A friend of mine’s Grandfather still has the title Khan of the Golden Horde (my friend is the Prince of the Silver Tower). They’ve been in exile since Catherine the Great conquered Crimea and currently live in Petersham…
Another classic Charles bijou. I hope someone is preparing a book.
Prince of the Silver Tower is interestingly non-googleable.
That’s my rough translation - I think it is Menghu-Khan or something like that in Turkish (?)
Sounds exotic. Google tells me that there doesn't seem to be a current Khan of the Golden Horde.
Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.
He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
I disagree: I think the Conservatives have only modest opportunities to take further seats from Labour in the old "Red Wall", but are under threat 20-30 seats if tactical voting returns. My central prediction is that the Conservatives end up with a 35-50 seat majority next time around, off a broadly similar vote share as 2019.
I can see the Conservatives sweeping the north if they carry on like this, which I think they will
Human nature is to attribute one's successes to oneself, while blaming others for whatever problems might befall you.
Which is why governments tend to lose popularity over time. Objectively, the period from 1992 to 1997 was one of great prosperity, with rapid growth, falling unemployment, and the like. Yet the government had managed to store up enough grievances, and their opponents were willing to tactically vote.
My gut is that the Conservative vote share will hold up well in 2024 (and which, by the way, would be the highest vote share of either Lab or Con since... well... a long time ago...). But it only takes a modest amount of tactical voting for that to result in them seeing a smaller majority.
Except that, in 2020, the government had three events which caused their rating to fall as a visible step change, with stasis in between. One was in May, caused by the Durham fiasco. One was in August, caused by the exam fiasco. One was in December, caused by the lockdown fiasco.
The Great Vaccination reset things, and has given the government another life.
But to bet on the next GE is to bet on the ratio of fiascos to triumphs for this government...
Yes, three years is a long time, so a Labour revival is very possible. Hard to see Starmer going though he should.
The mechanisms to challenge a Labour Leader are a much higher bar than a Tory one.
Stepping back, why exactly do you think Starmer should go? I ask because there is a hell of a lot of spin out there, if not some campaigns against him. Is the by election loss enough (normally it wouldn’t) or was the 1% swing not enough.
Meanwhile, as Labour politicians are kicking lumps out of each other, Priti Patel is engaged in some GOP style voter suppression tactics and other electoral changes that should substantially benefit Conservative candidates.
Yeah it's disgusting. What will count as acceptable ID? OK, driving licence and passport, obvs. But what about work IDs, university IDs, any other non-governmental IDs with a photo on?
If the government expect us to show photo ID to vote, then they should avail us of a universal form of photo ID, issued free of charge. A national ID card, if you will.
Of course, those on the right will scream that it is an intolerable outrage to expect a freeborn Englishman to carry an ID card; that will make us akin to a police state.
Accept when it comes to voting, apparently, when it's being justified to tackle a problem - voter fraud - that doesn't exist in any meaningful way in this country.
It's the shamelessness that really galls.
It's an expensive solution to a non existent problem. As of August 2020, one conviction and one caution had been secured for personation offences at elections held in 2019. There had been 20 allegations and the majority of cases led to no action....
20 allegations imply it's not a big problem that people are caring about.
Now NI does have a similar scheme already but it did have historic problems with fraud so it was required. Here it seems completely pointless and creates a silo.
If Boris / the Tories want a photo ID card could they kindly just ask for it - I can see a pile of reasons for having them provided the rules are properly set over who can use it to access exactly what.
Given the effort taken by the police not to record a crime when my flat mate had his vote stolen in Tower Hill, it is quite surprising that *any* fraud was "found".
In 2019 at the GE I turned up to my polling station to find out that I had already voted. Everyone seemed relatively chillaxed and when I intimated that the boys in blue should be involved they seemed aghast at the thought.
With his majority he should stop being frit on a few things and go for it - planning changes looked dead due to local opposition but after this week they should feel better.
But he needs to get a grip on social care already.
He risks seriously upsetting voters in the South who are fed up with huge estates being built .
"Risks" is putting it mildly. That's arguably the single biggest factor behind the Tories losing Oxfordshire yesterday.
HMG is at least talking about building in the north, though the risk is that a bonfire of regulations will mean more ticky-tacky in the south-east. Investment in new housing and even new towns should be directed up north and wherever else the local economy needs rejuvenation.
Up North we don't need houses - that's a southern issue.
There is a simple test to housing - are houses prices above 2004 levels - if so you haven't built enough.
And that's the tightrope the government have to walk.
If house prices carry on rising, the government has failed. If house prices fall, some of those new homeowners are going to be stuck with negative equity, and they're not going to like the government at all.
Keeping that balance will require deftness of touch on the part of the gov... Oh dear.
Anyway the big news today and I hope everyone is looking forward to it as much as I am - the Prime Minister telling us whether we are going to be allowed to hug our families.
Be still my beating heart...
A further refinement of the absurd was Nadine Dorries on the R4 this morning, without a trace of irony telling us that we should wait with baited breath to find out whether the PM would announce it this afternoon.
Correction..
A further refinement of the absurd Nadine Dorries....
Anyway the big news today and I hope everyone is looking forward to it as much as I am - the Prime Minister telling us whether we are going to be allowed to hug our families.
Anyway the big news today and I hope everyone is looking forward to it as much as I am - the Prime Minister telling us whether we are going to be allowed to hug our families.
Be still my beating heart...
Haven't seen my parents in 15 months. Expected them to die if they got Covid. Trust me, there are many of us whose heart is absolutely beating at the prospect of a hug from their mum.
Of course. But whether or not that might be safe is not going to be determined by whatever the PM might or might not say this afternoon.
The nations are now significantly divided by party.
England is Tory thanks to Johnson turning the old Conservative and Unionist Party into a Blue Labour English Populist Party. I can't see how Johnson lasts much longer (there are always plots to topple the king, Johnson hands the plotters the axe and sticks his head down on the block) but the Tories will.
Wales is Labour thanks to their adaptability over Brexit and the strengthening Welsh identity politics. Wales is no longer that bit attached to England where they talk funny - they are a nation in their own right and increasingly doing things their own way.
Scotland is SNP and we've talked too much already about the forthcoming independence referendum furore.
And NI? Fun times ahead after Arlene "Shit the Bed" Forster has led Norniron out of the UK customs union and into semi-detachment and irrelevance as far as London is concerned. None of the mainstream UK parties trade in NI, but the old two-way fight between Unionists and Nationalists appears to have been joined by a non-aligned centre.
The forthcoming "Team UK" summit will be crucial. We know that Boris is all dominant in England, but in the other home nations he is nowhere. He can choose his moment in history and try to forge a new consensus that sustains partnership and co-operation.
Or he can bang the table as he does the dispatch box, say I have a majority of 82, Westminster rules, shut the fuck up. It doesn't matter that the UK parliament is sovereign over the national parliaments if the people of those nations and those parliaments believe that Westminster is directly acting against their will and their interests in a cavalier you will do what we say manner.
Johnson could be a giant of history. Or a sidenote when a furious Mrs Gove / Cummings alliance sinks him. His problem is that despite being tactically clever and lucky, he has never shown any ideas or aptitude to strategy.
Another way of looking at it is that the nationalists went backwards in both Wales and Scotland.
Rumours of the death of the UK have been greatly exaggerated.
How have the nationalists gone backwards in Scotland? Record turnout. Highest ever vote for the SNP. Highest ever majority of Yes MSPs.
Won fuck all in the Red Wall and London tho', that's the new threshold for a workable mandate isn't it?
Was chatting to some people yesterday about Boris. One of the things which hit home was about his 'positivity.'
Contrast that with Keir Starmer, and Labour generally, who are miserable moaning minnies by comparison.
It was the 'can do' attitude of Boris which was praised. His galvanising effect which is emblematic of what the tories are doing in the former Red Wall. As someone commented yesterday, it's not these deprived towns which now feel left behind. It's the Labour Party.
Its probably Carrie's "can do " attitude that caused the row about wall paper... at least its not as costly a blunder as Boris Island Airport.... (imagine if that had been started by now....)
Wow you're bitter.
I couldn't give a flying fuck about his wallpaper. And no one I know could either.
They did well politically to spin the issue as just about wallpaper. If Johnson had received the 50-100k in a brown envelope, you and others might have taken a different view.
That Boris could (and did) successfully spin a corruption and possibly bribery issue as being a mere disagreement over wallpaper shows the failure of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition. Nonetheless, it might yet end Boris's premiership.
The media interviewed voters in the red wall seats and they were united on saying the wallpaper issue was irrelevant, one of them saying that Keir Starmer was more interested in Boris Johnson's wallpaper than them
Richard Nixon was elected President by what is still a record margin, after Watergate.
Wallpapergate is not about wallpaper.
I have a very good Russian friend.
At the very height of the MP's expenses scandal -- flipping second homes, duck houses & moats, wallpaper and curtains, Chaytor, Moran & Devine -- he said to me:
"This is not corruption. You guys don't even understand what real corruption is."
OK, there were some MPs, who did some silly things, some little dodges, tiny acts of grift, fiddling the photocopying receipts, employing the relatives.
Not good, I agree. But, that is not what real corruption is.
It is possible that the Labour can get the Tories on corruption, but if so, it won't be on silly little things, like Wallpaper-gate. To compare Watergate to Wallpaper-gate is to misunderstand grossly what corruption is.
What Cameron did is corrupt. Or stupid. Or both.
Any yet again, there is plenty of real corruption in Corruption Bay, where the Labour party presides over the only the UK Parliament without a register of lobbyists, and has done for over a quarter of a century.
You must be quite disappointed by the Welsh results?
I have a feeling your ideal result would have had ALL parties move backwards somewhat. Instead, Drake has wind in his sails and you’re stuck with RT for the foreseeable too.
Will PC dump Price? What ministry will Llafur give Dodds, if any?
I think it would have been far better for Wales if Llafur had lost 10 seats, and been forced into a coalition in which they were just one voice.
But, the polls were steadily moving in Drakeford's direction over April, so in the end, I was resigned to modest Labour seat losses. Of course, the Drake made a modest gain !
I expect Wales will continue to go backwards in health, education and economic matters -- as compared to say Scotland or Northern Ireland (we are well behind England).
But, at least Leanne Woods lost. I actually think she is responsible for a lot of the factionalism in Plaid Cymru, which has diminished it seriously as an electoral force. It is not often remembered, but in the first set of elections after devolution, Plaid Cymru did better than the SNP.
Plaid Cymru have made almost as many destructive choices as the LibDems, and Leanne is responsible for much of that.
As regards Drakeford, I probably prefer him to his likely successor, the odious Ken Skates, who unfortunately retained Clwyd South (a constituency in which I would have voted Tory to rid Wales of an incubus).
I would have preferred the LibDems to have retained Brecon & Radnorshire, as I have a high opinion of the candidate, William Powell. Instead, the LibDems lost in B&R but picked up the Mid-Wales list seat in compensation, so we have ended up with Jane Dodds who I actively dislike.
I am not really Pro-Any Party, but I am Pro-Wales. I think Wales lost in 2021, again.
The nations are now significantly divided by party.
England is Tory thanks to Johnson turning the old Conservative and Unionist Party into a Blue Labour English Populist Party. I can't see how Johnson lasts much longer (there are always plots to topple the king, Johnson hands the plotters the axe and sticks his head down on the block) but the Tories will.
Wales is Labour thanks to their adaptability over Brexit and the strengthening Welsh identity politics. Wales is no longer that bit attached to England where they talk funny - they are a nation in their own right and increasingly doing things their own way.
Scotland is SNP and we've talked too much already about the forthcoming independence referendum furore.
And NI? Fun times ahead after Arlene "Shit the Bed" Forster has led Norniron out of the UK customs union and into semi-detachment and irrelevance as far as London is concerned. None of the mainstream UK parties trade in NI, but the old two-way fight between Unionists and Nationalists appears to have been joined by a non-aligned centre.
The forthcoming "Team UK" summit will be crucial. We know that Boris is all dominant in England, but in the other home nations he is nowhere. He can choose his moment in history and try to forge a new consensus that sustains partnership and co-operation.
Or he can bang the table as he does the dispatch box, say I have a majority of 82, Westminster rules, shut the fuck up. It doesn't matter that the UK parliament is sovereign over the national parliaments if the people of those nations and those parliaments believe that Westminster is directly acting against their will and their interests in a cavalier you will do what we say manner.
Johnson could be a giant of history. Or a sidenote when a furious Mrs Gove / Cummings alliance sinks him. His problem is that despite being tactically clever and lucky, he has never shown any ideas or aptitude to strategy.
Another way of looking at it is that the nationalists went backwards in both Wales and Scotland.
Rumours of the death of the UK have been greatly exaggerated.
How have the nationalists gone backwards in Scotland? Record turnout. Highest ever vote for the SNP. Highest ever majority of Yes MSPs.
Biggest ever vote for the Tories. SNP failed to get a majority despite huge pandemic boost. Super nationalists Alba completely cratered.
The nations are now significantly divided by party.
England is Tory thanks to Johnson turning the old Conservative and Unionist Party into a Blue Labour English Populist Party. I can't see how Johnson lasts much longer (there are always plots to topple the king, Johnson hands the plotters the axe and sticks his head down on the block) but the Tories will.
Wales is Labour thanks to their adaptability over Brexit and the strengthening Welsh identity politics. Wales is no longer that bit attached to England where they talk funny - they are a nation in their own right and increasingly doing things their own way.
Scotland is SNP and we've talked too much already about the forthcoming independence referendum furore.
And NI? Fun times ahead after Arlene "Shit the Bed" Forster has led Norniron out of the UK customs union and into semi-detachment and irrelevance as far as London is concerned. None of the mainstream UK parties trade in NI, but the old two-way fight between Unionists and Nationalists appears to have been joined by a non-aligned centre.
The forthcoming "Team UK" summit will be crucial. We know that Boris is all dominant in England, but in the other home nations he is nowhere. He can choose his moment in history and try to forge a new consensus that sustains partnership and co-operation.
Or he can bang the table as he does the dispatch box, say I have a majority of 82, Westminster rules, shut the fuck up. It doesn't matter that the UK parliament is sovereign over the national parliaments if the people of those nations and those parliaments believe that Westminster is directly acting against their will and their interests in a cavalier you will do what we say manner.
Johnson could be a giant of history. Or a sidenote when a furious Mrs Gove / Cummings alliance sinks him. His problem is that despite being tactically clever and lucky, he has never shown any ideas or aptitude to strategy.
Another way of looking at it is that the nationalists went backwards in both Wales and Scotland.
Rumours of the death of the UK have been greatly exaggerated.
How have the nationalists gone backwards in Scotland? Record turnout. Highest ever vote for the SNP. Highest ever majority of Yes MSPs.
Biggest ever vote for the Tories. SNP failed to get a majority despite huge pandemic boost. Super nationalists Alba completely cratered.
Borders , Shetland and other areas voted to remain in Britain. A referendum would see Scotland split into fragments around Glasgow and Dundee - a McGaza strip and the West Pest Bank.
Anyway the big news today and I hope everyone is looking forward to it as much as I am - the Prime Minister telling us whether we are going to be allowed to hug our families.
Be still my beating heart...
A further refinement of the absurd was Nadine Dorries on the R4 this morning, without a trace of irony telling us that we should wait with baited breath to find out whether the PM would announce it this afternoon.
I think that was the most pointless interview I’ve ever heard.
She had absolutely nothing to say!
A waste of everyone’s time
Such interviews are designed as a demonstration of public obeisance to the PM by the minister concerned. And to remind the Today programme that he is far too busy/important to make a personal appearance.
The nations are now significantly divided by party.
England is Tory thanks to Johnson turning the old Conservative and Unionist Party into a Blue Labour English Populist Party. I can't see how Johnson lasts much longer (there are always plots to topple the king, Johnson hands the plotters the axe and sticks his head down on the block) but the Tories will.
Wales is Labour thanks to their adaptability over Brexit and the strengthening Welsh identity politics. Wales is no longer that bit attached to England where they talk funny - they are a nation in their own right and increasingly doing things their own way.
Scotland is SNP and we've talked too much already about the forthcoming independence referendum furore.
And NI? Fun times ahead after Arlene "Shit the Bed" Forster has led Norniron out of the UK customs union and into semi-detachment and irrelevance as far as London is concerned. None of the mainstream UK parties trade in NI, but the old two-way fight between Unionists and Nationalists appears to have been joined by a non-aligned centre.
The forthcoming "Team UK" summit will be crucial. We know that Boris is all dominant in England, but in the other home nations he is nowhere. He can choose his moment in history and try to forge a new consensus that sustains partnership and co-operation.
Or he can bang the table as he does the dispatch box, say I have a majority of 82, Westminster rules, shut the fuck up. It doesn't matter that the UK parliament is sovereign over the national parliaments if the people of those nations and those parliaments believe that Westminster is directly acting against their will and their interests in a cavalier you will do what we say manner.
Johnson could be a giant of history. Or a sidenote when a furious Mrs Gove / Cummings alliance sinks him. His problem is that despite being tactically clever and lucky, he has never shown any ideas or aptitude to strategy.
Another way of looking at it is that the nationalists went backwards in both Wales and Scotland.
Rumours of the death of the UK have been greatly exaggerated.
How have the nationalists gone backwards in Scotland? Record turnout. Highest ever vote for the SNP. Highest ever majority of Yes MSPs.
An absurd argument by a Tory MSP being roundly ridiculed on Twitter.
Having been a pretty successful commercial manager for a few decades, one of my favourite bits of management-speak bullshit is "the number is the number". You may not like the number. It may be difficult politically to manage. But there is avoiding it and no point trying to manipulate it or lie about it as the deception will bite far harder than the truth.
Yes won. It is what it is. Trying to claim that only constituency votes count, and that seats that just re-elected SNP MSPs by a wide margin actually voted against them as Murdo is doing is just stupid.
Was chatting to some people yesterday about Boris. One of the things which hit home was about his 'positivity.'
Contrast that with Keir Starmer, and Labour generally, who are miserable moaning minnies by comparison.
It was the 'can do' attitude of Boris which was praised. His galvanising effect which is emblematic of what the tories are doing in the former Red Wall. As someone commented yesterday, it's not these deprived towns which now feel left behind. It's the Labour Party.
Its probably Carrie's "can do " attitude that caused the row about wall paper... at least its not as costly a blunder as Boris Island Airport.... (imagine if that had been started by now....)
Wow you're bitter.
I couldn't give a flying fuck about his wallpaper. And no one I know could either.
They did well politically to spin the issue as just about wallpaper. If Johnson had received the 50-100k in a brown envelope, you and others might have taken a different view.
That Boris could (and did) successfully spin a corruption and possibly bribery issue as being a mere disagreement over wallpaper shows the failure of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition. Nonetheless, it might yet end Boris's premiership.
The media interviewed voters in the red wall seats and they were united on saying the wallpaper issue was irrelevant, one of them saying that Keir Starmer was more interested in Boris Johnson's wallpaper than them
Richard Nixon was elected President by what is still a record margin, after Watergate.
Wallpapergate is not about wallpaper.
I have a very good Russian friend.
At the very height of the MP's expenses scandal -- flipping second homes, duck houses & moats, wallpaper and curtains, Chaytor, Moran & Devine -- he said to me:
"This is not corruption. You guys don't even understand what real corruption is."
OK, there were some MPs, who did some silly things, some little dodges, tiny acts of grift, fiddling the photocopying receipts, employing the relatives.
Not good, I agree. But, that is not what real corruption is.
It is possible that the Labour can get the Tories on corruption, but if so, it won't be on silly little things, like Wallpaper-gate. To compare Watergate to Wallpaper-gate is to misunderstand grossly what corruption is.
What Cameron did is corrupt. Or stupid. Or both.
Any yet again, there is plenty of real corruption in Corruption Bay, where the Labour party presides over the only the UK Parliament without a register of lobbyists, and has done for over a quarter of a century.
As you say, look at the expenses scandal. How many careers did that end, even for trivial amounts of money, where no-one sought influence, and usually with no illegality?
Wallpapergate is dangerous for Boris because he seems, at least at first glance and of course he still has not given a full account which might exonerate him, to have got himself tied up in technical offences. Can Boris rely on the Father Ted defence: it was just resting in my account?
And the number of positive tests is also increasing.
Fortunately with the vaccination program such a success it will have little effect.
But I wonder if the zero covid sociopaths will demand a continuation of restrictions.
The ZOE increase is interesting, but there is caution in the report to government about what it means in the context of high vaccination etc. I don't agree that cases are increasing - at worst they are flat (indicating an R of 1) but PCR confirmed are still gradually dropping. The key, as I think you agree, is that increased cases won't really matter as long as the hospitalisation and deaths stay low/keep declining.
The nations are now significantly divided by party.
England is Tory thanks to Johnson turning the old Conservative and Unionist Party into a Blue Labour English Populist Party. I can't see how Johnson lasts much longer (there are always plots to topple the king, Johnson hands the plotters the axe and sticks his head down on the block) but the Tories will.
Wales is Labour thanks to their adaptability over Brexit and the strengthening Welsh identity politics. Wales is no longer that bit attached to England where they talk funny - they are a nation in their own right and increasingly doing things their own way.
Scotland is SNP and we've talked too much already about the forthcoming independence referendum furore.
And NI? Fun times ahead after Arlene "Shit the Bed" Forster has led Norniron out of the UK customs union and into semi-detachment and irrelevance as far as London is concerned. None of the mainstream UK parties trade in NI, but the old two-way fight between Unionists and Nationalists appears to have been joined by a non-aligned centre.
The forthcoming "Team UK" summit will be crucial. We know that Boris is all dominant in England, but in the other home nations he is nowhere. He can choose his moment in history and try to forge a new consensus that sustains partnership and co-operation.
Or he can bang the table as he does the dispatch box, say I have a majority of 82, Westminster rules, shut the fuck up. It doesn't matter that the UK parliament is sovereign over the national parliaments if the people of those nations and those parliaments believe that Westminster is directly acting against their will and their interests in a cavalier you will do what we say manner.
Johnson could be a giant of history. Or a sidenote when a furious Mrs Gove / Cummings alliance sinks him. His problem is that despite being tactically clever and lucky, he has never shown any ideas or aptitude to strategy.
Another way of looking at it is that the nationalists went backwards in both Wales and Scotland.
Rumours of the death of the UK have been greatly exaggerated.
How have the nationalists gone backwards in Scotland? Record turnout. Highest ever vote for the SNP. Highest ever majority of Yes MSPs.
An absurd argument by a Tory MSP being roundly ridiculed on Twitter.
Having been a pretty successful commercial manager for a few decades, one of my favourite bits of management-speak bullshit is "the number is the number". You may not like the number. It may be difficult politically to manage. But there is avoiding it and no point trying to manipulate it or lie about it as the deception will bite far harder than the truth.
Yes won. It is what it is. Trying to claim that only constituency votes count, and that seats that just re-elected SNP MSPs by a wide margin actually voted against them as Murdo is doing is just stupid.
Be careful you will bring HYUFD back now others are quoting his logic.
Anyway the big news today and I hope everyone is looking forward to it as much as I am - the Prime Minister telling us whether we are going to be allowed to hug our families.
Be still my beating heart...
Haven't seen my parents in 15 months. Expected them to die if they got Covid. Trust me, there are many of us whose heart is absolutely beating at the prospect of a hug from their mum.
And you need the PM to explain to you the relevant risks?
If you haven't seen your parents in 15 months that is on you. Isolate yourself for 14 days and go to see them.
I haven't seen them for 15 months because we were in lockdown, then they were shielding, then they were in lockdown then we all were in lockdown. For old people in the North West lockdown has been a permanent feature.
Yes, we could have binned off the regulations. I could have seen them. I could have killed them - as we saw with the kill your Granny christmas amnesty and the monster spike through January.
I can isolate myself. I can't isolate my kids or my teaching assistant wife. And Pox spread like wildfire through schools.
The nations are now significantly divided by party.
England is Tory thanks to Johnson turning the old Conservative and Unionist Party into a Blue Labour English Populist Party. I can't see how Johnson lasts much longer (there are always plots to topple the king, Johnson hands the plotters the axe and sticks his head down on the block) but the Tories will.
Wales is Labour thanks to their adaptability over Brexit and the strengthening Welsh identity politics. Wales is no longer that bit attached to England where they talk funny - they are a nation in their own right and increasingly doing things their own way.
Scotland is SNP and we've talked too much already about the forthcoming independence referendum furore.
And NI? Fun times ahead after Arlene "Shit the Bed" Forster has led Norniron out of the UK customs union and into semi-detachment and irrelevance as far as London is concerned. None of the mainstream UK parties trade in NI, but the old two-way fight between Unionists and Nationalists appears to have been joined by a non-aligned centre.
The forthcoming "Team UK" summit will be crucial. We know that Boris is all dominant in England, but in the other home nations he is nowhere. He can choose his moment in history and try to forge a new consensus that sustains partnership and co-operation.
Or he can bang the table as he does the dispatch box, say I have a majority of 82, Westminster rules, shut the fuck up. It doesn't matter that the UK parliament is sovereign over the national parliaments if the people of those nations and those parliaments believe that Westminster is directly acting against their will and their interests in a cavalier you will do what we say manner.
Johnson could be a giant of history. Or a sidenote when a furious Mrs Gove / Cummings alliance sinks him. His problem is that despite being tactically clever and lucky, he has never shown any ideas or aptitude to strategy.
Another way of looking at it is that the nationalists went backwards in both Wales and Scotland.
Rumours of the death of the UK have been greatly exaggerated.
How have the nationalists gone backwards in Scotland? Record turnout. Highest ever vote for the SNP. Highest ever majority of Yes MSPs.
Biggest ever vote for the Tories. SNP failed to get a majority despite huge pandemic boost. Super nationalists Alba completely cratered.
Another fantasist running away from the reality of how people voted. Happily you have zero relevance to events!
Borders , Shetland and other areas voted to remain in Britain. A referendum would see Scotland split into fragments around Glasgow and Dundee - a McGaza strip and the West Pest Bank.
You be donning the khaki and picking up a rifle, Harry?
Was chatting to some people yesterday about Boris. One of the things which hit home was about his 'positivity.'
Contrast that with Keir Starmer, and Labour generally, who are miserable moaning minnies by comparison.
It was the 'can do' attitude of Boris which was praised. His galvanising effect which is emblematic of what the tories are doing in the former Red Wall. As someone commented yesterday, it's not these deprived towns which now feel left behind. It's the Labour Party.
Its probably Carrie's "can do " attitude that caused the row about wall paper... at least its not as costly a blunder as Boris Island Airport.... (imagine if that had been started by now....)
Wow you're bitter.
I couldn't give a flying fuck about his wallpaper. And no one I know could either.
They did well politically to spin the issue as just about wallpaper. If Johnson had received the 50-100k in a brown envelope, you and others might have taken a different view.
That Boris could (and did) successfully spin a corruption and possibly bribery issue as being a mere disagreement over wallpaper shows the failure of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition. Nonetheless, it might yet end Boris's premiership.
The media interviewed voters in the red wall seats and they were united on saying the wallpaper issue was irrelevant, one of them saying that Keir Starmer was more interested in Boris Johnson's wallpaper than them
Richard Nixon was elected President by what is still a record margin, after Watergate.
Wallpapergate is not about wallpaper.
I have a very good Russian friend.
At the very height of the MP's expenses scandal -- flipping second homes, duck houses & moats, wallpaper and curtains, Chaytor, Moran & Devine -- he said to me:
"This is not corruption. You guys don't even understand what real corruption is."
OK, there were some MPs, who did some silly things, some little dodges, tiny acts of grift, fiddling the photocopying receipts, employing the relatives.
Not good, I agree. But, that is not what real corruption is.
It is possible that the Labour can get the Tories on corruption, but if so, it won't be on silly little things, like Wallpaper-gate. To compare Watergate to Wallpaper-gate is to misunderstand grossly what corruption is.
What Cameron did is corrupt. Or stupid. Or both.
Any yet again, there is plenty of real corruption in Corruption Bay, where the Labour party presides over the only the UK Parliament without a register of lobbyists, and has done for over a quarter of a century.
As you say, look at the expenses scandal. How many careers did that end, even for trivial amounts of money, where no-one sought influence, and usually with no illegality?
Wallpapergate is dangerous for Boris because he seems, at least at first glance and of course he still has not given a full account which might exonerate him, to have got himself tied up in technical offences. Can Boris rely on the Father Ted defence: it was just resting in my account?
If he is that desperate why not the Redknapp defence, the bank account is in the name of my dog Dilyn, your honour.
Anyway the big news today and I hope everyone is looking forward to it as much as I am - the Prime Minister telling us whether we are going to be allowed to hug our families.
Be still my beating heart...
Haven't seen my parents in 15 months. Expected them to die if they got Covid. Trust me, there are many of us whose heart is absolutely beating at the prospect of a hug from their mum.
Of course. But whether or not that might be safe is not going to be determined by whatever the PM might or might not say this afternoon.
True. They have now had both doses. I have had my first last week. So we're looking for a date I can come down later this month.
Point is though that going to see frail parents in the midst of a pandemic whilst exposed to pox risk on a daily basis through schools would have been bloody stupid.
Anyway the big news today and I hope everyone is looking forward to it as much as I am - the Prime Minister telling us whether we are going to be allowed to hug our families.
Be still my beating heart...
Haven't seen my parents in 15 months. Expected them to die if they got Covid. Trust me, there are many of us whose heart is absolutely beating at the prospect of a hug from their mum.
And you need the PM to explain to you the relevant risks?
If you haven't seen your parents in 15 months that is on you. Isolate yourself for 14 days and go to see them.
I haven't seen them for 15 months because we were in lockdown, then they were shielding, then they were in lockdown then we all were in lockdown. For old people in the North West lockdown has been a permanent feature.
Yes, we could have binned off the regulations. I could have seen them. I could have killed them - as we saw with the kill your Granny christmas amnesty and the monster spike through January.
I can isolate myself. I can't isolate my kids or my teaching assistant wife. And Pox spread like wildfire through schools.
Mate I feel for you really I do. Must have been terrible.
But you could have gone to see your parents if you managed it appropriately. If you had wanted to see them you could have seen them.
And newsflash - even with vaccines (90-95% efficacy?) the virus will be about and hence people will need to be aware of the risks after May 17th. Are you planning to go to see your parents on May 18th? Like it's all of a sudden safe?
For a number of reasons the govt has put the fear of bejeezus into the country about this so that BoJo can come onto our screens and pronounce himself as the bringer of hugs.
Meanwhile everyone had the option to think through the risks, based upon the available evidence, the whole time.
Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.
He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
I disagree: I think the Conservatives have only modest opportunities to take further seats from Labour in the old "Red Wall", but are under threat 20-30 seats if tactical voting returns. My central prediction is that the Conservatives end up with a 35-50 seat majority next time around, off a broadly similar vote share as 2019.
I can see the Conservatives sweeping the north if they carry on like this, which I think they will
Human nature is to attribute one's successes to oneself, while blaming others for whatever problems might befall you.
Which is why governments tend to lose popularity over time. Objectively, the period from 1992 to 1997 was one of great prosperity, with rapid growth, falling unemployment, and the like. Yet the government had managed to store up enough grievances, and their opponents were willing to tactically vote.
My gut is that the Conservative vote share will hold up well in 2024 (and which, by the way, would be the highest vote share of either Lab or Con since... well... a long time ago...). But it only takes a modest amount of tactical voting for that to result in them seeing a smaller majority.
Except that, in 2020, the government had three events which caused their rating to fall as a visible step change, with stasis in between. One was in May, caused by the Durham fiasco. One was in August, caused by the exam fiasco. One was in December, caused by the lockdown fiasco.
The Great Vaccination reset things, and has given the government another life.
But to bet on the next GE is to bet on the ratio of fiascos to triumphs for this government...
Yes, three years is a long time, so a Labour revival is very possible. Hard to see Starmer going though he should.
The mechanisms to challenge a Labour Leader are a much higher bar than a Tory one.
Stepping back, why exactly do you think Starmer should go? I ask because there is a hell of a lot of spin out there, if not some campaigns against him. Is the by election loss enough (normally it wouldn’t) or was the 1% swing not enough.
I also think Starmer should go.
And the reason is this: all the evidence we have suggests he has no ability to lead the party toward recovery.
He’s terrible on TV: robotic, banal, insincere, slightly fearful.
His candidate selection in Hartlepool, and his farcical “reshuffle” shows he can’t do strategy or tactics. He has no political cunning.
He’s done us all a great service by ejecting Corbyn and removing the anti-semitic stain from Labour, but he now needs to step aside.
He’s not up to it.
He has the ability (in terms of potential) but not the experience.
His biggest problem now is that, once people have settled on a view of a new leader - generally towards the end of their first year - it is exceptionally difficult for them to reinvent themselves in the public mind
Though Thatcher's ratings were pretty poor through '78 and '79, and Cameron wasn't doing well in 2007/8. Blair was different sure, but he was uniquely talented and took over when the Major government was already broken-backed.
Conclusion: If Johnson can get to the next election without a major failure, he'll win. If there is a major failure, Starmer's profound mediocrity won't matter so much.
And depending on one's views of Johnson and his way of governing, a major failure is either impossible or inevitable.
Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.
He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
I disagree: I think the Conservatives have only modest opportunities to take further seats from Labour in the old "Red Wall", but are under threat 20-30 seats if tactical voting returns. My central prediction is that the Conservatives end up with a 35-50 seat majority next time around, off a broadly similar vote share as 2019.
I can see the Conservatives sweeping the north if they carry on like this, which I think they will
Human nature is to attribute one's successes to oneself, while blaming others for whatever problems might befall you.
Which is why governments tend to lose popularity over time. Objectively, the period from 1992 to 1997 was one of great prosperity, with rapid growth, falling unemployment, and the like. Yet the government had managed to store up enough grievances, and their opponents were willing to tactically vote.
My gut is that the Conservative vote share will hold up well in 2024 (and which, by the way, would be the highest vote share of either Lab or Con since... well... a long time ago...). But it only takes a modest amount of tactical voting for that to result in them seeing a smaller majority.
Except that, in 2020, the government had three events which caused their rating to fall as a visible step change, with stasis in between. One was in May, caused by the Durham fiasco. One was in August, caused by the exam fiasco. One was in December, caused by the lockdown fiasco.
The Great Vaccination reset things, and has given the government another life.
But to bet on the next GE is to bet on the ratio of fiascos to triumphs for this government...
Yes, three years is a long time, so a Labour revival is very possible. Hard to see Starmer going though he should.
The mechanisms to challenge a Labour Leader are a much higher bar than a Tory one.
Stepping back, why exactly do you think Starmer should go? I ask because there is a hell of a lot of spin out there, if not some campaigns against him. Is the by election loss enough (normally it wouldn’t) or was the 1% swing not enough.
Meanwhile, as Labour politicians are kicking lumps out of each other, Priti Patel is engaged in some GOP style voter suppression tactics and other electoral changes that should substantially benefit Conservative candidates.
Yeah it's disgusting. What will count as acceptable ID? OK, driving licence and passport, obvs. But what about work IDs, university IDs, any other non-governmental IDs with a photo on?
If the government expect us to show photo ID to vote, then they should avail us of a universal form of photo ID, issued free of charge. A national ID card, if you will.
Of course, those on the right will scream that it is an intolerable outrage to expect a freeborn Englishman to carry an ID card; that will make us akin to a police state.
Accept when it comes to voting, apparently, when it's being justified to tackle a problem - voter fraud - that doesn't exist in any meaningful way in this country.
It's the shamelessness that really galls.
It's an expensive solution to a non existent problem. As of August 2020, one conviction and one caution had been secured for personation offences at elections held in 2019. There had been 20 allegations and the majority of cases led to no action....
A couple of orders of magnitude less than might be put off voting by this unnecessary scheme, very probably.
Any illegal vote represents the theft from another individual of their entire stake in democracy. If you want to trivialise it you should voluntarily disenfranchise yourself to show how trivial it is. Would you be happy with that!
Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.
He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
I disagree: I think the Conservatives have only modest opportunities to take further seats from Labour in the old "Red Wall", but are under threat 20-30 seats if tactical voting returns. My central prediction is that the Conservatives end up with a 35-50 seat majority next time around, off a broadly similar vote share as 2019.
I can see the Conservatives sweeping the north if they carry on like this, which I think they will
Human nature is to attribute one's successes to oneself, while blaming others for whatever problems might befall you.
Which is why governments tend to lose popularity over time. Objectively, the period from 1992 to 1997 was one of great prosperity, with rapid growth, falling unemployment, and the like. Yet the government had managed to store up enough grievances, and their opponents were willing to tactically vote.
My gut is that the Conservative vote share will hold up well in 2024 (and which, by the way, would be the highest vote share of either Lab or Con since... well... a long time ago...). But it only takes a modest amount of tactical voting for that to result in them seeing a smaller majority.
Except that, in 2020, the government had three events which caused their rating to fall as a visible step change, with stasis in between. One was in May, caused by the Durham fiasco. One was in August, caused by the exam fiasco. One was in December, caused by the lockdown fiasco.
The Great Vaccination reset things, and has given the government another life.
But to bet on the next GE is to bet on the ratio of fiascos to triumphs for this government...
Yes, three years is a long time, so a Labour revival is very possible. Hard to see Starmer going though he should.
The mechanisms to challenge a Labour Leader are a much higher bar than a Tory one.
Stepping back, why exactly do you think Starmer should go? I ask because there is a hell of a lot of spin out there, if not some campaigns against him. Is the by election loss enough (normally it wouldn’t) or was the 1% swing not enough.
Meanwhile, as Labour politicians are kicking lumps out of each other, Priti Patel is engaged in some GOP style voter suppression tactics and other electoral changes that should substantially benefit Conservative candidates.
Yeah it's disgusting. What will count as acceptable ID? OK, driving licence and passport, obvs. But what about work IDs, university IDs, any other non-governmental IDs with a photo on?
If the government expect us to show photo ID to vote, then they should avail us of a universal form of photo ID, issued free of charge. A national ID card, if you will.
Of course, those on the right will scream that it is an intolerable outrage to expect a freeborn Englishman to carry an ID card; that will make us akin to a police state.
Accept when it comes to voting, apparently, when it's being justified to tackle a problem - voter fraud - that doesn't exist in any meaningful way in this country.
It's the shamelessness that really galls.
It's an expensive solution to a non existent problem. As of August 2020, one conviction and one caution had been secured for personation offences at elections held in 2019. There had been 20 allegations and the majority of cases led to no action....
A couple of orders of magnitude less than might be put off voting by this unnecessary scheme, very probably.
Any illegal vote represents the theft from another individual of their entire stake in democracy. If you want to trivialise it you should voluntarily disenfranchise yourself to show how trivial it is. Would you be happy with that!
The nations are now significantly divided by party.
England is Tory thanks to Johnson turning the old Conservative and Unionist Party into a Blue Labour English Populist Party. I can't see how Johnson lasts much longer (there are always plots to topple the king, Johnson hands the plotters the axe and sticks his head down on the block) but the Tories will.
Wales is Labour thanks to their adaptability over Brexit and the strengthening Welsh identity politics. Wales is no longer that bit attached to England where they talk funny - they are a nation in their own right and increasingly doing things their own way.
Scotland is SNP and we've talked too much already about the forthcoming independence referendum furore.
And NI? Fun times ahead after Arlene "Shit the Bed" Forster has led Norniron out of the UK customs union and into semi-detachment and irrelevance as far as London is concerned. None of the mainstream UK parties trade in NI, but the old two-way fight between Unionists and Nationalists appears to have been joined by a non-aligned centre.
The forthcoming "Team UK" summit will be crucial. We know that Boris is all dominant in England, but in the other home nations he is nowhere. He can choose his moment in history and try to forge a new consensus that sustains partnership and co-operation.
Or he can bang the table as he does the dispatch box, say I have a majority of 82, Westminster rules, shut the fuck up. It doesn't matter that the UK parliament is sovereign over the national parliaments if the people of those nations and those parliaments believe that Westminster is directly acting against their will and their interests in a cavalier you will do what we say manner.
Johnson could be a giant of history. Or a sidenote when a furious Mrs Gove / Cummings alliance sinks him. His problem is that despite being tactically clever and lucky, he has never shown any ideas or aptitude to strategy.
Another way of looking at it is that the nationalists went backwards in both Wales and Scotland.
Rumours of the death of the UK have been greatly exaggerated.
How have the nationalists gone backwards in Scotland? Record turnout. Highest ever vote for the SNP. Highest ever majority of Yes MSPs.
Biggest ever vote for the Tories. SNP failed to get a majority despite huge pandemic boost. Super nationalists Alba completely cratered.
The nations are now significantly divided by party.
England is Tory thanks to Johnson turning the old Conservative and Unionist Party into a Blue Labour English Populist Party. I can't see how Johnson lasts much longer (there are always plots to topple the king, Johnson hands the plotters the axe and sticks his head down on the block) but the Tories will.
Wales is Labour thanks to their adaptability over Brexit and the strengthening Welsh identity politics. Wales is no longer that bit attached to England where they talk funny - they are a nation in their own right and increasingly doing things their own way.
Scotland is SNP and we've talked too much already about the forthcoming independence referendum furore.
And NI? Fun times ahead after Arlene "Shit the Bed" Forster has led Norniron out of the UK customs union and into semi-detachment and irrelevance as far as London is concerned. None of the mainstream UK parties trade in NI, but the old two-way fight between Unionists and Nationalists appears to have been joined by a non-aligned centre.
The forthcoming "Team UK" summit will be crucial. We know that Boris is all dominant in England, but in the other home nations he is nowhere. He can choose his moment in history and try to forge a new consensus that sustains partnership and co-operation.
Or he can bang the table as he does the dispatch box, say I have a majority of 82, Westminster rules, shut the fuck up. It doesn't matter that the UK parliament is sovereign over the national parliaments if the people of those nations and those parliaments believe that Westminster is directly acting against their will and their interests in a cavalier you will do what we say manner.
Johnson could be a giant of history. Or a sidenote when a furious Mrs Gove / Cummings alliance sinks him. His problem is that despite being tactically clever and lucky, he has never shown any ideas or aptitude to strategy.
Another way of looking at it is that the nationalists went backwards in both Wales and Scotland.
Rumours of the death of the UK have been greatly exaggerated.
How have the nationalists gone backwards in Scotland? Record turnout. Highest ever vote for the SNP. Highest ever majority of Yes MSPs.
Biggest ever vote for the Tories. SNP failed to get a majority despite huge pandemic boost. Super nationalists Alba completely cratered.
Borders , Shetland and other areas voted to remain in Britain. A referendum would see Scotland split into fragments around Glasgow and Dundee - a McGaza strip and the West Pest Bank.
Scotland really isn't SNP. I know. I live here.
Sturgeon's success was greatly aided by her presiding over the pandemic. Just as Drakeford's was. I lost count of the number of people who gave her credit for that and, probably, their votes. Her soft-pedalling indy during the campaign helped too.
There is nothing inevitable about independence. But it does require Westminster to start paying attention, and responding appropriately.
The Scots Tories held the line pretty successfully but all eyes now should turn to Anas Sarwar and his attempt to rebuild Scottish Labour. Ruth Davidson showed what can be done.
Anyway the big news today and I hope everyone is looking forward to it as much as I am - the Prime Minister telling us whether we are going to be allowed to hug our families.
Be still my beating heart...
Haven't seen my parents in 15 months. Expected them to die if they got Covid. Trust me, there are many of us whose heart is absolutely beating at the prospect of a hug from their mum.
And you need the PM to explain to you the relevant risks?
If you haven't seen your parents in 15 months that is on you. Isolate yourself for 14 days and go to see them.
I haven't seen them for 15 months because we were in lockdown, then they were shielding, then they were in lockdown then we all were in lockdown. For old people in the North West lockdown has been a permanent feature.
Yes, we could have binned off the regulations. I could have seen them. I could have killed them - as we saw with the kill your Granny christmas amnesty and the monster spike through January.
I can isolate myself. I can't isolate my kids or my teaching assistant wife. And Pox spread like wildfire through schools.
Mate I feel for you really I do. Must have been terrible.
But you could have gone to see your parents if you managed it appropriately. If you had wanted to see them you could have seen them.
And newsflash - even with vaccines (90-95% efficacy?) the virus will be about and hence people will need to be aware of the risks after May 17th. Are you planning to go to see your parents on May 18th? Like it's all of a sudden safe?
For a number of reasons the govt has put the fear of bejeezus into the country about this so that BoJo can come onto our screens and pronounce himself as the bringer of hugs.
Meanwhile everyone had the option to think through the risks, based upon the available evidence, the whole time.
It was one thing to stand a distance apart when your parents live round the corner. It's another thing entirely when they are x hours away.
Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.
He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
I disagree: I think the Conservatives have only modest opportunities to take further seats from Labour in the old "Red Wall", but are under threat 20-30 seats if tactical voting returns. My central prediction is that the Conservatives end up with a 35-50 seat majority next time around, off a broadly similar vote share as 2019.
I can see the Conservatives sweeping the north if they carry on like this, which I think they will
Human nature is to attribute one's successes to oneself, while blaming others for whatever problems might befall you.
Which is why governments tend to lose popularity over time. Objectively, the period from 1992 to 1997 was one of great prosperity, with rapid growth, falling unemployment, and the like. Yet the government had managed to store up enough grievances, and their opponents were willing to tactically vote.
My gut is that the Conservative vote share will hold up well in 2024 (and which, by the way, would be the highest vote share of either Lab or Con since... well... a long time ago...). But it only takes a modest amount of tactical voting for that to result in them seeing a smaller majority.
Except that, in 2020, the government had three events which caused their rating to fall as a visible step change, with stasis in between. One was in May, caused by the Durham fiasco. One was in August, caused by the exam fiasco. One was in December, caused by the lockdown fiasco.
The Great Vaccination reset things, and has given the government another life.
But to bet on the next GE is to bet on the ratio of fiascos to triumphs for this government...
Yes, three years is a long time, so a Labour revival is very possible. Hard to see Starmer going though he should.
The mechanisms to challenge a Labour Leader are a much higher bar than a Tory one.
Stepping back, why exactly do you think Starmer should go? I ask because there is a hell of a lot of spin out there, if not some campaigns against him. Is the by election loss enough (normally it wouldn’t) or was the 1% swing not enough.
Meanwhile, as Labour politicians are kicking lumps out of each other, Priti Patel is engaged in some GOP style voter suppression tactics and other electoral changes that should substantially benefit Conservative candidates.
Yeah it's disgusting. What will count as acceptable ID? OK, driving licence and passport, obvs. But what about work IDs, university IDs, any other non-governmental IDs with a photo on?
If the government expect us to show photo ID to vote, then they should avail us of a universal form of photo ID, issued free of charge. A national ID card, if you will.
Of course, those on the right will scream that it is an intolerable outrage to expect a freeborn Englishman to carry an ID card; that will make us akin to a police state.
Accept when it comes to voting, apparently, when it's being justified to tackle a problem - voter fraud - that doesn't exist in any meaningful way in this country.
It's the shamelessness that really galls.
It's an expensive solution to a non existent problem. As of August 2020, one conviction and one caution had been secured for personation offences at elections held in 2019. There had been 20 allegations and the majority of cases led to no action....
A couple of orders of magnitude less than might be put off voting by this unnecessary scheme, very probably.
Any illegal vote represents the theft from another individual of their entire stake in democracy. If you want to trivialise it you should voluntarily disenfranchise yourself to show how trivial it is. Would you be happy with that!
That is absurd. Most of the stake in democracy does not come from the act of voting as an individual. My vote has never ever mattered at a GE because I havent lived in a marginal. My benefit in democracy comes from the fact that our leaders know they can be kicked out within a few years, and therefore to some extent have to reflect the priorities and mood of the country.
Everything's going so well for Johnson at the moment, I can't help feeling something's going to come out of the woodwork to derail his premiership at some point over the next 12 to 18 months. It happened to Tony Blair when he looked utterly invincible, first with the fuel protests in the year 2000, and the with Iraq in 2003. You could also include being slow-handclapped by the Women's Institute around the same time. I remember what a shock that was, because it was the first time anything had remotely gone wrong for him since he became leader of the Labour Party in 1994, even though it was rather trivial in hindsight.
I'm not sure the arrival of a pandemic classifies as going well. Provides opportunities for success or failure and massive spending.
Covid has been sensationally good for the PM. OK so 150k people are dead but as Philip lovingly points out people die anyway. What Covid has done for the PM is lengthy - foster that blitz spirit, gain people's sympathy (he almost died / he's doing his best), spaff fucktons of money at people his party would not have given much of anything to otherwise, reward friends and party donors, and come out the back end with a vaccination boost.
What would the last 15 months have been like for him without Covid? All the focus would have been on Brexit, on a negotiation that failed to achieve any of its key objectives, of a chaotic exit of the EEA and CU, of cuts biting in places like Hartlepool.
There seem to be posts eulogising Liar like he is some kind of political genius - he isn't. Yes he is smart tactically but has never displayed any nous for strategy. He's just very very very lucky that disasters like Covid drop into his lap like a love bomb from General Galtieri did to transform Thatcher's premiership.
You really do come across as just plainly bitter
About what? I am (a) not pushing for Labour and (b) not that bothered about the Tories dominating England having left the country.
Engage on the point. The Tories would have had a tough year had it not been for Covid. The effective bribe money on offer to Hartlepool voters wouldn't have been there without Covid.
We have no idea how politics would have worked out without covid and speculating on something that did not happen does not add to the debate of what has happened, because covid has happened and like all things in politics unexpected events arise
So how does that make me bitter?
I can *speculate* about how the published Tory policies would have played out. A significant number of people other than me have commentated on the transformation in Tory fiscal policies. That transformation plainly has an impact on how people see the government.
In itself it doesn't but your use of language indicates a nuance to your attitude, and to be honest you would be a much better poster if you avoided it
Anyway the big news today and I hope everyone is looking forward to it as much as I am - the Prime Minister telling us whether we are going to be allowed to hug our families.
Be still my beating heart...
Haven't seen my parents in 15 months. Expected them to die if they got Covid. Trust me, there are many of us whose heart is absolutely beating at the prospect of a hug from their mum.
And you need the PM to explain to you the relevant risks?
If you haven't seen your parents in 15 months that is on you. Isolate yourself for 14 days and go to see them.
I haven't seen them for 15 months because we were in lockdown, then they were shielding, then they were in lockdown then we all were in lockdown. For old people in the North West lockdown has been a permanent feature.
Yes, we could have binned off the regulations. I could have seen them. I could have killed them - as we saw with the kill your Granny christmas amnesty and the monster spike through January.
I can isolate myself. I can't isolate my kids or my teaching assistant wife. And Pox spread like wildfire through schools.
As a senior citizen with quite a few similar friends, who I mostly only see on Zoom nowadays, I know pretty well all the Grannies are longing to see, and hug, their grandchildren 'for real'.
All but one of our grandchildren are beyond the hugging stage.... two adults, four teenagers...... just one primary school age. And we won't see her for months; her bit of the family lives abroad.
Anyway the big news today and I hope everyone is looking forward to it as much as I am - the Prime Minister telling us whether we are going to be allowed to hug our families.
Be still my beating heart...
Haven't seen my parents in 15 months. Expected them to die if they got Covid. Trust me, there are many of us whose heart is absolutely beating at the prospect of a hug from their mum.
And you need the PM to explain to you the relevant risks?
If you haven't seen your parents in 15 months that is on you. Isolate yourself for 14 days and go to see them.
I haven't seen them for 15 months because we were in lockdown, then they were shielding, then they were in lockdown then we all were in lockdown. For old people in the North West lockdown has been a permanent feature.
Yes, we could have binned off the regulations. I could have seen them. I could have killed them - as we saw with the kill your Granny christmas amnesty and the monster spike through January.
I can isolate myself. I can't isolate my kids or my teaching assistant wife. And Pox spread like wildfire through schools.
Mate I feel for you really I do. Must have been terrible.
But you could have gone to see your parents if you managed it appropriately. If you had wanted to see them you could have seen them.
And newsflash - even with vaccines (90-95% efficacy?) the virus will be about and hence people will need to be aware of the risks after May 17th. Are you planning to go to see your parents on May 18th? Like it's all of a sudden safe?
For a number of reasons the govt has put the fear of bejeezus into the country about this so that BoJo can come onto our screens and pronounce himself as the bringer of hugs.
Meanwhile everyone had the option to think through the risks, based upon the available evidence, the whole time.
It was one thing to stand a distance apart when your parents live round the corner. It's another thing entirely when they are x hours away.
Yes, the difference is x hours.
The care home scandal will, I hope, prove to be just that and in that case absolutely, if you try to see your parents you are liable to be arrested.
For the remainder, it is up to individuals to assess the risks. Live with a TA and have kids? OK fine, isolate yourself in the home, take regular tests, and go to see your parents.
I have a friend whose wife is a nurse and they literally isolated her from him and their two children. Horrible, obvs, but they felt it was necessary.
Not to speak for anyone else, but if @RochdalePioneers had wanted to go to see his parents over the past 15 months he could have done so rather than wait for his hero Boris to tell him he could.
In itself it doesn't but your use of language indicates a nuance to your attitude, and to be honest you would be a much better poster if you avoided it
Erm, if you're going to start preaching on "nuance" of "use of language", perhaps re-read your own comment and realise quite how staggeringly patronising that sounds.
Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.
He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
I disagree: I think the Conservatives have only modest opportunities to take further seats from Labour in the old "Red Wall", but are under threat 20-30 seats if tactical voting returns. My central prediction is that the Conservatives end up with a 35-50 seat majority next time around, off a broadly similar vote share as 2019.
I can see the Conservatives sweeping the north if they carry on like this, which I think they will
Human nature is to attribute one's successes to oneself, while blaming others for whatever problems might befall you.
Which is why governments tend to lose popularity over time. Objectively, the period from 1992 to 1997 was one of great prosperity, with rapid growth, falling unemployment, and the like. Yet the government had managed to store up enough grievances, and their opponents were willing to tactically vote.
My gut is that the Conservative vote share will hold up well in 2024 (and which, by the way, would be the highest vote share of either Lab or Con since... well... a long time ago...). But it only takes a modest amount of tactical voting for that to result in them seeing a smaller majority.
Except that, in 2020, the government had three events which caused their rating to fall as a visible step change, with stasis in between. One was in May, caused by the Durham fiasco. One was in August, caused by the exam fiasco. One was in December, caused by the lockdown fiasco.
The Great Vaccination reset things, and has given the government another life.
But to bet on the next GE is to bet on the ratio of fiascos to triumphs for this government...
Yes, three years is a long time, so a Labour revival is very possible. Hard to see Starmer going though he should.
The mechanisms to challenge a Labour Leader are a much higher bar than a Tory one.
Stepping back, why exactly do you think Starmer should go? I ask because there is a hell of a lot of spin out there, if not some campaigns against him. Is the by election loss enough (normally it wouldn’t) or was the 1% swing not enough.
Meanwhile, as Labour politicians are kicking lumps out of each other, Priti Patel is engaged in some GOP style voter suppression tactics and other electoral changes that should substantially benefit Conservative candidates.
Yeah it's disgusting. What will count as acceptable ID? OK, driving licence and passport, obvs. But what about work IDs, university IDs, any other non-governmental IDs with a photo on?
If the government expect us to show photo ID to vote, then they should avail us of a universal form of photo ID, issued free of charge. A national ID card, if you will.
Of course, those on the right will scream that it is an intolerable outrage to expect a freeborn Englishman to carry an ID card; that will make us akin to a police state.
Accept when it comes to voting, apparently, when it's being justified to tackle a problem - voter fraud - that doesn't exist in any meaningful way in this country.
It's the shamelessness that really galls.
It's an expensive solution to a non existent problem. As of August 2020, one conviction and one caution had been secured for personation offences at elections held in 2019. There had been 20 allegations and the majority of cases led to no action....
A couple of orders of magnitude less than might be put off voting by this unnecessary scheme, very probably.
Any illegal vote represents the theft from another individual of their entire stake in democracy. If you want to trivialise it you should voluntarily disenfranchise yourself to show how trivial it is. Would you be happy with that!
That is absurd. Most of the stake in democracy does not come from the act of voting as an individual. My vote has never ever mattered at a GE because I havent lived in a marginal. My benefit in democracy comes from the fact that our leaders know they can be kicked out within a few years, and therefore to some extent have to reflect the priorities and mood of the country.
Things are the sum of their parts.
I take it you would be happy to be disenfranchised?
Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.
He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
I disagree: I think the Conservatives have only modest opportunities to take further seats from Labour in the old "Red Wall", but are under threat 20-30 seats if tactical voting returns. My central prediction is that the Conservatives end up with a 35-50 seat majority next time around, off a broadly similar vote share as 2019.
I can see the Conservatives sweeping the north if they carry on like this, which I think they will
Human nature is to attribute one's successes to oneself, while blaming others for whatever problems might befall you.
Which is why governments tend to lose popularity over time. Objectively, the period from 1992 to 1997 was one of great prosperity, with rapid growth, falling unemployment, and the like. Yet the government had managed to store up enough grievances, and their opponents were willing to tactically vote.
My gut is that the Conservative vote share will hold up well in 2024 (and which, by the way, would be the highest vote share of either Lab or Con since... well... a long time ago...). But it only takes a modest amount of tactical voting for that to result in them seeing a smaller majority.
Except that, in 2020, the government had three events which caused their rating to fall as a visible step change, with stasis in between. One was in May, caused by the Durham fiasco. One was in August, caused by the exam fiasco. One was in December, caused by the lockdown fiasco.
The Great Vaccination reset things, and has given the government another life.
But to bet on the next GE is to bet on the ratio of fiascos to triumphs for this government...
Yes, three years is a long time, so a Labour revival is very possible. Hard to see Starmer going though he should.
The mechanisms to challenge a Labour Leader are a much higher bar than a Tory one.
Stepping back, why exactly do you think Starmer should go? I ask because there is a hell of a lot of spin out there, if not some campaigns against him. Is the by election loss enough (normally it wouldn’t) or was the 1% swing not enough.
Meanwhile, as Labour politicians are kicking lumps out of each other, Priti Patel is engaged in some GOP style voter suppression tactics and other electoral changes that should substantially benefit Conservative candidates.
Yeah it's disgusting. What will count as acceptable ID? OK, driving licence and passport, obvs. But what about work IDs, university IDs, any other non-governmental IDs with a photo on?
If the government expect us to show photo ID to vote, then they should avail us of a universal form of photo ID, issued free of charge. A national ID card, if you will.
Of course, those on the right will scream that it is an intolerable outrage to expect a freeborn Englishman to carry an ID card; that will make us akin to a police state.
Accept when it comes to voting, apparently, when it's being justified to tackle a problem - voter fraud - that doesn't exist in any meaningful way in this country.
It's the shamelessness that really galls.
It's an expensive solution to a non existent problem. As of August 2020, one conviction and one caution had been secured for personation offences at elections held in 2019. There had been 20 allegations and the majority of cases led to no action....
If you are simply using the votes of people you don't think are going to turn up you have a very high risk of being caught (the person is known, the person has voted, etc) and you can only get away with a few and you need to have several of you to turn up (the same person can't keep appearing obviously). We were aware of this being a problem in a ward. You can appoint someone to challenge voters. It is rarely used, but we did it. Can't remember the details now. However we found the police particularly unhelpful. Having made the challenge the person 'did a runner', the police refused to act.
If you are doing it by registering no existent people there are better ways of resolving this by tightening up the registration. Again very difficult to get away with a substantial number without getting caught.
Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.
He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
I disagree: I think the Conservatives have only modest opportunities to take further seats from Labour in the old "Red Wall", but are under threat 20-30 seats if tactical voting returns. My central prediction is that the Conservatives end up with a 35-50 seat majority next time around, off a broadly similar vote share as 2019.
I can see the Conservatives sweeping the north if they carry on like this, which I think they will
Human nature is to attribute one's successes to oneself, while blaming others for whatever problems might befall you.
Which is why governments tend to lose popularity over time. Objectively, the period from 1992 to 1997 was one of great prosperity, with rapid growth, falling unemployment, and the like. Yet the government had managed to store up enough grievances, and their opponents were willing to tactically vote.
My gut is that the Conservative vote share will hold up well in 2024 (and which, by the way, would be the highest vote share of either Lab or Con since... well... a long time ago...). But it only takes a modest amount of tactical voting for that to result in them seeing a smaller majority.
Except that, in 2020, the government had three events which caused their rating to fall as a visible step change, with stasis in between. One was in May, caused by the Durham fiasco. One was in August, caused by the exam fiasco. One was in December, caused by the lockdown fiasco.
The Great Vaccination reset things, and has given the government another life.
But to bet on the next GE is to bet on the ratio of fiascos to triumphs for this government...
Yes, three years is a long time, so a Labour revival is very possible. Hard to see Starmer going though he should.
The mechanisms to challenge a Labour Leader are a much higher bar than a Tory one.
Stepping back, why exactly do you think Starmer should go? I ask because there is a hell of a lot of spin out there, if not some campaigns against him. Is the by election loss enough (normally it wouldn’t) or was the 1% swing not enough.
Meanwhile, as Labour politicians are kicking lumps out of each other, Priti Patel is engaged in some GOP style voter suppression tactics and other electoral changes that should substantially benefit Conservative candidates.
Yeah it's disgusting. What will count as acceptable ID? OK, driving licence and passport, obvs. But what about work IDs, university IDs, any other non-governmental IDs with a photo on?
If the government expect us to show photo ID to vote, then they should avail us of a universal form of photo ID, issued free of charge. A national ID card, if you will.
Of course, those on the right will scream that it is an intolerable outrage to expect a freeborn Englishman to carry an ID card; that will make us akin to a police state.
Accept when it comes to voting, apparently, when it's being justified to tackle a problem - voter fraud - that doesn't exist in any meaningful way in this country.
It's the shamelessness that really galls.
It's quite transparent why they are doing so. A day after the Conservatives lose but two mayoralties they decide, let's change the system to our advantage.
I have a feeling that once the Covid dust settles, these sort of Dick Dastardly scams will blow up in their faces.
The only reason we have the Supplementary Vote system for Mayoral elections, rather than AV, is that SV is better for Labour than AV. It was a scam in the first place.
I prefer a Labour scam to a Tory one, but the status quo is short of a democratic ideal.
Was chatting to some people yesterday about Boris. One of the things which hit home was about his 'positivity.'
Contrast that with Keir Starmer, and Labour generally, who are miserable moaning minnies by comparison.
It was the 'can do' attitude of Boris which was praised. His galvanising effect which is emblematic of what the tories are doing in the former Red Wall. As someone commented yesterday, it's not these deprived towns which now feel left behind. It's the Labour Party.
Its probably Carrie's "can do " attitude that caused the row about wall paper... at least its not as costly a blunder as Boris Island Airport.... (imagine if that had been started by now....)
Wow you're bitter.
I couldn't give a flying fuck about his wallpaper. And no one I know could either.
They did well politically to spin the issue as just about wallpaper. If Johnson had received the 50-100k in a brown envelope, you and others might have taken a different view.
That Boris could (and did) successfully spin a corruption and possibly bribery issue as being a mere disagreement over wallpaper shows the failure of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition. Nonetheless, it might yet end Boris's premiership.
The media interviewed voters in the red wall seats and they were united on saying the wallpaper issue was irrelevant, one of them saying that Keir Starmer was more interested in Boris Johnson's wallpaper than them
Richard Nixon was elected President by what is still a record margin, after Watergate.
Wallpapergate is not about wallpaper.
I have a very good Russian friend.
At the very height of the MP's expenses scandal -- flipping second homes, duck houses & moats, wallpaper and curtains, Chaytor, Moran & Devine -- he said to me:
"This is not corruption. You guys don't even understand what real corruption is."
OK, there were some MPs, who did some silly things, some little dodges, tiny acts of grift, fiddling the photocopying receipts, employing the relatives.
Not good, I agree. But, that is not what real corruption is.
It is possible that the Labour can get the Tories on corruption, but if so, it won't be on silly little things, like Wallpaper-gate. To compare Watergate to Wallpaper-gate is to misunderstand grossly what corruption is.
What Cameron did is corrupt. Or stupid. Or both.
Any yet again, there is plenty of real corruption in Corruption Bay, where the Labour party presides over the only the UK Parliament without a register of lobbyists, and has done for over a quarter of a century.
You must be quite disappointed by the Welsh results?
I have a feeling your ideal result would have had ALL parties move backwards somewhat. Instead, Drake has wind in his sails and you’re stuck with RT for the foreseeable too.
Will PC dump Price? What ministry will Llafur give Dodds, if any?
The Welsh results were much in line with expectations with labour receiving a Drakeford vaccine bounce, the conservatives having their best ever Welsh performance and Plaid going backwards
You only need to look at a map of the Welsh constituencies to see the large divide between the tightly packed South Wales for labour and the rest of the Principality
The good news is that Drakeford has defeated the independence cause and as I have said on several occasions, I give him great credit for that
The nations are now significantly divided by party.
England is Tory thanks to Johnson turning the old Conservative and Unionist Party into a Blue Labour English Populist Party. I can't see how Johnson lasts much longer (there are always plots to topple the king, Johnson hands the plotters the axe and sticks his head down on the block) but the Tories will.
Wales is Labour thanks to their adaptability over Brexit and the strengthening Welsh identity politics. Wales is no longer that bit attached to England where they talk funny - they are a nation in their own right and increasingly doing things their own way.
Scotland is SNP and we've talked too much already about the forthcoming independence referendum furore.
And NI? Fun times ahead after Arlene "Shit the Bed" Forster has led Norniron out of the UK customs union and into semi-detachment and irrelevance as far as London is concerned. None of the mainstream UK parties trade in NI, but the old two-way fight between Unionists and Nationalists appears to have been joined by a non-aligned centre.
The forthcoming "Team UK" summit will be crucial. We know that Boris is all dominant in England, but in the other home nations he is nowhere. He can choose his moment in history and try to forge a new consensus that sustains partnership and co-operation.
Or he can bang the table as he does the dispatch box, say I have a majority of 82, Westminster rules, shut the fuck up. It doesn't matter that the UK parliament is sovereign over the national parliaments if the people of those nations and those parliaments believe that Westminster is directly acting against their will and their interests in a cavalier you will do what we say manner.
Johnson could be a giant of history. Or a sidenote when a furious Mrs Gove / Cummings alliance sinks him. His problem is that despite being tactically clever and lucky, he has never shown any ideas or aptitude to strategy.
Another way of looking at it is that the nationalists went backwards in both Wales and Scotland.
Rumours of the death of the UK have been greatly exaggerated.
How have the nationalists gone backwards in Scotland? Record turnout. Highest ever vote for the SNP. Highest ever majority of Yes MSPs.
Biggest ever vote for the Tories. SNP failed to get a majority despite huge pandemic boost. Super nationalists Alba completely cratered.
Another fantasist running away from the reality of how people voted. Happily you have zero relevance to events!
Anyway the big news today and I hope everyone is looking forward to it as much as I am - the Prime Minister telling us whether we are going to be allowed to hug our families.
Be still my beating heart...
Haven't seen my parents in 15 months. Expected them to die if they got Covid. Trust me, there are many of us whose heart is absolutely beating at the prospect of a hug from their mum.
And you need the PM to explain to you the relevant risks?
If you haven't seen your parents in 15 months that is on you. Isolate yourself for 14 days and go to see them.
I haven't seen them for 15 months because we were in lockdown, then they were shielding, then they were in lockdown then we all were in lockdown. For old people in the North West lockdown has been a permanent feature.
Yes, we could have binned off the regulations. I could have seen them. I could have killed them - as we saw with the kill your Granny christmas amnesty and the monster spike through January.
I can isolate myself. I can't isolate my kids or my teaching assistant wife. And Pox spread like wildfire through schools.
Mate I feel for you really I do. Must have been terrible.
But you could have gone to see your parents if you managed it appropriately. If you had wanted to see them you could have seen them.
And newsflash - even with vaccines (90-95% efficacy?) the virus will be about and hence people will need to be aware of the risks after May 17th. Are you planning to go to see your parents on May 18th? Like it's all of a sudden safe?
For a number of reasons the govt has put the fear of bejeezus into the country about this so that BoJo can come onto our screens and pronounce himself as the bringer of hugs.
Meanwhile everyone had the option to think through the risks, based upon the available evidence, the whole time.
I offered that as an option several times - they declined. And I understand why. I'm not going there on the first day because its suddenly safe (as thay would be stupid). I am organising a trip now that they have had both doses and I have had one and the pox is back down to minor numbers.
The chance of me killing my dad has dropped sufficiently to make it ok. I don't get though how I could have managed it appropriately? Even last summer when a version of normal returned briefly they were either shielding or locked down due to the pox running rampant in the NW. And at my end with wife and kids in school there was no way to isolate myself from it.
The nations are now significantly divided by party.
England is Tory thanks to Johnson turning the old Conservative and Unionist Party into a Blue Labour English Populist Party. I can't see how Johnson lasts much longer (there are always plots to topple the king, Johnson hands the plotters the axe and sticks his head down on the block) but the Tories will.
Wales is Labour thanks to their adaptability over Brexit and the strengthening Welsh identity politics. Wales is no longer that bit attached to England where they talk funny - they are a nation in their own right and increasingly doing things their own way.
Scotland is SNP and we've talked too much already about the forthcoming independence referendum furore.
And NI? Fun times ahead after Arlene "Shit the Bed" Forster has led Norniron out of the UK customs union and into semi-detachment and irrelevance as far as London is concerned. None of the mainstream UK parties trade in NI, but the old two-way fight between Unionists and Nationalists appears to have been joined by a non-aligned centre.
The forthcoming "Team UK" summit will be crucial. We know that Boris is all dominant in England, but in the other home nations he is nowhere. He can choose his moment in history and try to forge a new consensus that sustains partnership and co-operation.
Or he can bang the table as he does the dispatch box, say I have a majority of 82, Westminster rules, shut the fuck up. It doesn't matter that the UK parliament is sovereign over the national parliaments if the people of those nations and those parliaments believe that Westminster is directly acting against their will and their interests in a cavalier you will do what we say manner.
Johnson could be a giant of history. Or a sidenote when a furious Mrs Gove / Cummings alliance sinks him. His problem is that despite being tactically clever and lucky, he has never shown any ideas or aptitude to strategy.
The "Team UK" summit sounds rather like similar get-togethers in Canada between the Prime Minister and provincial premiers. In which the former is not necessarily or even usual predominant but instead barely first among equals.
I hope thats the case. There needs to be an open and frank discussion about the way forward because the union in its current form is unsustainable.
I actually agree with you but independence is not the answer
No it isn't. Again I campaigned for the LibDems AGAINST independence. But independence is what a majority of votes have been cast for.
So we either engage head on and reshape a country that works. Or we deploy the HYUFD / Craft Cockney / Leon approach and tell Scotland they can't have it and thus make independence inevitable.
Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.
He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
I disagree: I think the Conservatives have only modest opportunities to take further seats from Labour in the old "Red Wall", but are under threat 20-30 seats if tactical voting returns. My central prediction is that the Conservatives end up with a 35-50 seat majority next time around, off a broadly similar vote share as 2019.
I can see the Conservatives sweeping the north if they carry on like this, which I think they will
Human nature is to attribute one's successes to oneself, while blaming others for whatever problems might befall you.
Which is why governments tend to lose popularity over time. Objectively, the period from 1992 to 1997 was one of great prosperity, with rapid growth, falling unemployment, and the like. Yet the government had managed to store up enough grievances, and their opponents were willing to tactically vote.
My gut is that the Conservative vote share will hold up well in 2024 (and which, by the way, would be the highest vote share of either Lab or Con since... well... a long time ago...). But it only takes a modest amount of tactical voting for that to result in them seeing a smaller majority.
Except that, in 2020, the government had three events which caused their rating to fall as a visible step change, with stasis in between. One was in May, caused by the Durham fiasco. One was in August, caused by the exam fiasco. One was in December, caused by the lockdown fiasco.
The Great Vaccination reset things, and has given the government another life.
But to bet on the next GE is to bet on the ratio of fiascos to triumphs for this government...
Yes, three years is a long time, so a Labour revival is very possible. Hard to see Starmer going though he should.
The mechanisms to challenge a Labour Leader are a much higher bar than a Tory one.
Stepping back, why exactly do you think Starmer should go? I ask because there is a hell of a lot of spin out there, if not some campaigns against him. Is the by election loss enough (normally it wouldn’t) or was the 1% swing not enough.
Meanwhile, as Labour politicians are kicking lumps out of each other, Priti Patel is engaged in some GOP style voter suppression tactics and other electoral changes that should substantially benefit Conservative candidates.
Yeah it's disgusting. What will count as acceptable ID? OK, driving licence and passport, obvs. But what about work IDs, university IDs, any other non-governmental IDs with a photo on?
If the government expect us to show photo ID to vote, then they should avail us of a universal form of photo ID, issued free of charge. A national ID card, if you will.
Of course, those on the right will scream that it is an intolerable outrage to expect a freeborn Englishman to carry an ID card; that will make us akin to a police state.
Accept when it comes to voting, apparently, when it's being justified to tackle a problem - voter fraud - that doesn't exist in any meaningful way in this country.
It's the shamelessness that really galls.
It's an expensive solution to a non existent problem. As of August 2020, one conviction and one caution had been secured for personation offences at elections held in 2019. There had been 20 allegations and the majority of cases led to no action....
A couple of orders of magnitude less than might be put off voting by this unnecessary scheme, very probably.
Any illegal vote represents the theft from another individual of their entire stake in democracy. If you want to trivialise it you should voluntarily disenfranchise yourself to show how trivial it is. Would you be happy with that!
You ignore my point, which was about the proportionality of the proposed measures. You are trivialising the costs.
Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.
He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
I disagree: I think the Conservatives have only modest opportunities to take further seats from Labour in the old "Red Wall", but are under threat 20-30 seats if tactical voting returns. My central prediction is that the Conservatives end up with a 35-50 seat majority next time around, off a broadly similar vote share as 2019.
I can see the Conservatives sweeping the north if they carry on like this, which I think they will
Human nature is to attribute one's successes to oneself, while blaming others for whatever problems might befall you.
Which is why governments tend to lose popularity over time. Objectively, the period from 1992 to 1997 was one of great prosperity, with rapid growth, falling unemployment, and the like. Yet the government had managed to store up enough grievances, and their opponents were willing to tactically vote.
My gut is that the Conservative vote share will hold up well in 2024 (and which, by the way, would be the highest vote share of either Lab or Con since... well... a long time ago...). But it only takes a modest amount of tactical voting for that to result in them seeing a smaller majority.
Except that, in 2020, the government had three events which caused their rating to fall as a visible step change, with stasis in between. One was in May, caused by the Durham fiasco. One was in August, caused by the exam fiasco. One was in December, caused by the lockdown fiasco.
The Great Vaccination reset things, and has given the government another life.
But to bet on the next GE is to bet on the ratio of fiascos to triumphs for this government...
Yes, three years is a long time, so a Labour revival is very possible. Hard to see Starmer going though he should.
The mechanisms to challenge a Labour Leader are a much higher bar than a Tory one.
Stepping back, why exactly do you think Starmer should go? I ask because there is a hell of a lot of spin out there, if not some campaigns against him. Is the by election loss enough (normally it wouldn’t) or was the 1% swing not enough.
Meanwhile, as Labour politicians are kicking lumps out of each other, Priti Patel is engaged in some GOP style voter suppression tactics and other electoral changes that should substantially benefit Conservative candidates.
Yeah it's disgusting. What will count as acceptable ID? OK, driving licence and passport, obvs. But what about work IDs, university IDs, any other non-governmental IDs with a photo on?
If the government expect us to show photo ID to vote, then they should avail us of a universal form of photo ID, issued free of charge. A national ID card, if you will.
Of course, those on the right will scream that it is an intolerable outrage to expect a freeborn Englishman to carry an ID card; that will make us akin to a police state.
Accept when it comes to voting, apparently, when it's being justified to tackle a problem - voter fraud - that doesn't exist in any meaningful way in this country.
It's the shamelessness that really galls.
It's quite transparent why they are doing so. A day after the Conservatives lose but two mayoralties they decide, let's change the system to our advantage.
I have a feeling that once the Covid dust settles, these sort of Dick Dastardly scams will blow up in their faces.
The only reason we have the Supplementary Vote system for Mayoral elections, rather than AV, is that SV is better for Labour than AV. It was a scam in the first place.
I prefer a Labour scam to a Tory one, but the status quo is short of a democratic ideal.
Given that 1/6 of votes in London were cast incorrectly SV seems too complex for the benefits it offers.
Anyway the big news today and I hope everyone is looking forward to it as much as I am - the Prime Minister telling us whether we are going to be allowed to hug our families.
Be still my beating heart...
Haven't seen my parents in 15 months. Expected them to die if they got Covid. Trust me, there are many of us whose heart is absolutely beating at the prospect of a hug from their mum.
And you need the PM to explain to you the relevant risks?
If you haven't seen your parents in 15 months that is on you. Isolate yourself for 14 days and go to see them.
I haven't seen them for 15 months because we were in lockdown, then they were shielding, then they were in lockdown then we all were in lockdown. For old people in the North West lockdown has been a permanent feature.
Yes, we could have binned off the regulations. I could have seen them. I could have killed them - as we saw with the kill your Granny christmas amnesty and the monster spike through January.
I can isolate myself. I can't isolate my kids or my teaching assistant wife. And Pox spread like wildfire through schools.
Mate I feel for you really I do. Must have been terrible.
But you could have gone to see your parents if you managed it appropriately. If you had wanted to see them you could have seen them.
And newsflash - even with vaccines (90-95% efficacy?) the virus will be about and hence people will need to be aware of the risks after May 17th. Are you planning to go to see your parents on May 18th? Like it's all of a sudden safe?
For a number of reasons the govt has put the fear of bejeezus into the country about this so that BoJo can come onto our screens and pronounce himself as the bringer of hugs.
Meanwhile everyone had the option to think through the risks, based upon the available evidence, the whole time.
I offered that as an option several times - they declined. And I understand why. I'm not going there on the first day because its suddenly safe (as thay would be stupid). I am organising a trip now that they have had both doses and I have had one and the pox is back down to minor numbers.
The chance of me killing my dad has dropped sufficiently to make it ok. I don't get though how I could have managed it appropriately? Even last summer when a version of normal returned briefly they were either shielding or locked down due to the pox running rampant in the NW. And at my end with wife and kids in school there was no way to isolate myself from it.
I also understand if they have decided against. But it is possible. Just isolate yourself and test.
Everything's going so well for Johnson at the moment, I can't help feeling something's going to come out of the woodwork to derail his premiership at some point over the next 12 to 18 months. It happened to Tony Blair when he looked utterly invincible, first with the fuel protests in the year 2000, and the with Iraq in 2003. You could also include being slow-handclapped by the Women's Institute around the same time. I remember what a shock that was, because it was the first time anything had remotely gone wrong for him since he became leader of the Labour Party in 1994, even though it was rather trivial in hindsight.
I'm not sure the arrival of a pandemic classifies as going well. Provides opportunities for success or failure and massive spending.
Covid has been sensationally good for the PM. OK so 150k people are dead but as Philip lovingly points out people die anyway. What Covid has done for the PM is lengthy - foster that blitz spirit, gain people's sympathy (he almost died / he's doing his best), spaff fucktons of money at people his party would not have given much of anything to otherwise, reward friends and party donors, and come out the back end with a vaccination boost.
What would the last 15 months have been like for him without Covid? All the focus would have been on Brexit, on a negotiation that failed to achieve any of its key objectives, of a chaotic exit of the EEA and CU, of cuts biting in places like Hartlepool.
There seem to be posts eulogising Liar like he is some kind of political genius - he isn't. Yes he is smart tactically but has never displayed any nous for strategy. He's just very very very lucky that disasters like Covid drop into his lap like a love bomb from General Galtieri did to transform Thatcher's premiership.
You really do come across as just plainly bitter
About what? I am (a) not pushing for Labour and (b) not that bothered about the Tories dominating England having left the country.
Engage on the point. The Tories would have had a tough year had it not been for Covid. The effective bribe money on offer to Hartlepool voters wouldn't have been there without Covid.
We have no idea how politics would have worked out without covid and speculating on something that did not happen does not add to the debate of what has happened, because covid has happened and like all things in politics unexpected events arise
So how does that make me bitter?
I can *speculate* about how the published Tory policies would have played out. A significant number of people other than me have commentated on the transformation in Tory fiscal policies. That transformation plainly has an impact on how people see the government.
In itself it doesn't but your use of language indicates a nuance to your attitude, and to be honest you would be a much better poster if you avoided it
I'll take that under advisement. I'm a Lancastrian, we call it as we see it, and some posters on here post rampant lies claimed as truths. Can't help calling that out, and when they keep going calling them out as the prannocks they are.
With respect to the "you're bitter" argument have you now accepted that this was a statement made in error...? I don't care whether you have or haven't, I'm just curious.
Everything's going so well for Johnson at the moment, I can't help feeling something's going to come out of the woodwork to derail his premiership at some point over the next 12 to 18 months. It happened to Tony Blair when he looked utterly invincible, first with the fuel protests in the year 2000, and the with Iraq in 2003. You could also include being slow-handclapped by the Women's Institute around the same time. I remember what a shock that was, because it was the first time anything had remotely gone wrong for him since he became leader of the Labour Party in 1994, even though it was rather trivial in hindsight.
I'm not sure the arrival of a pandemic classifies as going well. Provides opportunities for success or failure and massive spending.
Covid has been sensationally good for the PM. OK so 150k people are dead but as Philip lovingly points out people die anyway. What Covid has done for the PM is lengthy - foster that blitz spirit, gain people's sympathy (he almost died / he's doing his best), spaff fucktons of money at people his party would not have given much of anything to otherwise, reward friends and party donors, and come out the back end with a vaccination boost.
What would the last 15 months have been like for him without Covid? All the focus would have been on Brexit, on a negotiation that failed to achieve any of its key objectives, of a chaotic exit of the EEA and CU, of cuts biting in places like Hartlepool.
There seem to be posts eulogising Liar like he is some kind of political genius - he isn't. Yes he is smart tactically but has never displayed any nous for strategy. He's just very very very lucky that disasters like Covid drop into his lap like a love bomb from General Galtieri did to transform Thatcher's premiership.
You really do come across as just plainly bitter
About what? I am (a) not pushing for Labour and (b) not that bothered about the Tories dominating England having left the country.
Engage on the point. The Tories would have had a tough year had it not been for Covid. The effective bribe money on offer to Hartlepool voters wouldn't have been there without Covid.
Untrue. Towns deal, future night street fund, levelling up funds. These are all pre covid town investment programmes.
Give over. Thats a sticking plaster at best. The towns deal at best pays for one project in one of the winning towns. And "levelling up funds" are what exactly? These areas needed hosing with cash - happened because of Covid and wouldn't have happened otherwise.
How can I say this with confidence? Because Mansfield. One of the early blue wins in the wall. Has had an enormous £12m. Wow! That will make all the difference...
Yes £12m is a lot of money. If you think it isn't then it goes to show that nothing will ever be good enough.
"Hosing with cash" isn't a solution either, what's needed is to create the conditions that allow for further growth, which creates a virtuous positive feedback loop.
Despite attempting to can Angela Rayner, after a day of tense talks she emerged with the title: Deputy Leader, Shadow First Secretary of State, Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Shadow Secretary of State for the Future of Work.
Her allies said the multiple jobs added up to a promotion, but Starmer's supporters rejected that as "spin."
Its about the first interesting thing Sir Bland has done. But its a screw up.
Taking the knee in his office in his shiny suit was interesting. But not in a good way.
I was chatting to a friend about moving the European Cup Final to Wembley and he said that had full stadiums continued through covid the fans would not have supported the gesture and made it known
I suspect that he is right
It might mean something different in the USA, so I’m been charitable to people from there who do it, but here it means you are allowing yourself to be subjugated. It works in the context of asking for permission to get married, but even that dates itself to subjugating yourself to the nobleman.
You take the knee for your Sovereign and the woman you wish to marry. Anything else is a sign of immense weakness and cowardice.
You kneel before God. You nod to your Sovereign (true Brits don’t bow at the waist)
I'll kowtow/salaam to that. Preferably the latter.
Batley & Spen is a nailed on Tory gain unless Labour manages to find a big beast of the Ed Balls mould to contest the seat. Even were Ed to stand*, it would be tight.
*I doubt he will. He has a flourishing, lucrative media (and promising culinary) career and has moved on from politics, which is the nation’s loss.
The Heavy Woollens are good old fashioned working class bigots. Don't like pikeys or foreigners, think they are patriots, want Asian criminals locked up.
Anyway the big news today and I hope everyone is looking forward to it as much as I am - the Prime Minister telling us whether we are going to be allowed to hug our families.
Be still my beating heart...
Haven't seen my parents in 15 months. Expected them to die if they got Covid. Trust me, there are many of us whose heart is absolutely beating at the prospect of a hug from their mum.
I've only hugged my dad once in my life, as far as I can recall, but perhaps this is time.
The nations are now significantly divided by party.
England is Tory thanks to Johnson turning the old Conservative and Unionist Party into a Blue Labour English Populist Party. I can't see how Johnson lasts much longer (there are always plots to topple the king, Johnson hands the plotters the axe and sticks his head down on the block) but the Tories will.
Wales is Labour thanks to their adaptability over Brexit and the strengthening Welsh identity politics. Wales is no longer that bit attached to England where they talk funny - they are a nation in their own right and increasingly doing things their own way.
Scotland is SNP and we've talked too much already about the forthcoming independence referendum furore.
And NI? Fun times ahead after Arlene "Shit the Bed" Forster has led Norniron out of the UK customs union and into semi-detachment and irrelevance as far as London is concerned. None of the mainstream UK parties trade in NI, but the old two-way fight between Unionists and Nationalists appears to have been joined by a non-aligned centre.
The forthcoming "Team UK" summit will be crucial. We know that Boris is all dominant in England, but in the other home nations he is nowhere. He can choose his moment in history and try to forge a new consensus that sustains partnership and co-operation.
Or he can bang the table as he does the dispatch box, say I have a majority of 82, Westminster rules, shut the fuck up. It doesn't matter that the UK parliament is sovereign over the national parliaments if the people of those nations and those parliaments believe that Westminster is directly acting against their will and their interests in a cavalier you will do what we say manner.
Johnson could be a giant of history. Or a sidenote when a furious Mrs Gove / Cummings alliance sinks him. His problem is that despite being tactically clever and lucky, he has never shown any ideas or aptitude to strategy.
Another way of looking at it is that the nationalists went backwards in both Wales and Scotland.
Rumours of the death of the UK have been greatly exaggerated.
How have the nationalists gone backwards in Scotland? Record turnout. Highest ever vote for the SNP. Highest ever majority of Yes MSPs.
Yesterdays polling with remain on 58% v leave 42% and only one in eight Scots think it is a priority issue confirmed the recent trend away from independence
Furthermore, I really do think Sturgeon only values her own legacy, and she will not gamble it without a clear majority of Scots demanding it, and that is not the same as a SNP/Green alliance promoting it
With his majority he should stop being frit on a few things and go for it - planning changes looked dead due to local opposition but after this week they should feel better.
But he needs to get a grip on social care already.
He risks seriously upsetting voters in the South who are fed up with huge estates being built .
"Risks" is putting it mildly. That's arguably the single biggest factor behind the Tories losing Oxfordshire yesterday.
HMG is at least talking about building in the north, though the risk is that a bonfire of regulations will mean more ticky-tacky in the south-east. Investment in new housing and even new towns should be directed up north and wherever else the local economy needs rejuvenation.
Up North we don't need houses - that's a southern issue.
There is a simple test to housing - are houses prices above 2004 levels - if so you haven't built enough.
And that's the tightrope the government have to walk.
If house prices carry on rising, the government has failed. If house prices fall, some of those new homeowners are going to be stuck with negative equity, and they're not going to like the government at all.
Keeping that balance will require deftness of touch on the part of the gov... Oh dear.
The balance is to get incomes rising faster than house prices, thus lowering the house price to earnings ratio.
Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.
He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
I disagree: I think the Conservatives have only modest opportunities to take further seats from Labour in the old "Red Wall", but are under threat 20-30 seats if tactical voting returns. My central prediction is that the Conservatives end up with a 35-50 seat majority next time around, off a broadly similar vote share as 2019.
I can see the Conservatives sweeping the north if they carry on like this, which I think they will
Human nature is to attribute one's successes to oneself, while blaming others for whatever problems might befall you.
Which is why governments tend to lose popularity over time. Objectively, the period from 1992 to 1997 was one of great prosperity, with rapid growth, falling unemployment, and the like. Yet the government had managed to store up enough grievances, and their opponents were willing to tactically vote.
My gut is that the Conservative vote share will hold up well in 2024 (and which, by the way, would be the highest vote share of either Lab or Con since... well... a long time ago...). But it only takes a modest amount of tactical voting for that to result in them seeing a smaller majority.
Except that, in 2020, the government had three events which caused their rating to fall as a visible step change, with stasis in between. One was in May, caused by the Durham fiasco. One was in August, caused by the exam fiasco. One was in December, caused by the lockdown fiasco.
The Great Vaccination reset things, and has given the government another life.
But to bet on the next GE is to bet on the ratio of fiascos to triumphs for this government...
Yes, three years is a long time, so a Labour revival is very possible. Hard to see Starmer going though he should.
The mechanisms to challenge a Labour Leader are a much higher bar than a Tory one.
Stepping back, why exactly do you think Starmer should go? I ask because there is a hell of a lot of spin out there, if not some campaigns against him. Is the by election loss enough (normally it wouldn’t) or was the 1% swing not enough.
Meanwhile, as Labour politicians are kicking lumps out of each other, Priti Patel is engaged in some GOP style voter suppression tactics and other electoral changes that should substantially benefit Conservative candidates.
Yeah it's disgusting. What will count as acceptable ID? OK, driving licence and passport, obvs. But what about work IDs, university IDs, any other non-governmental IDs with a photo on?
If the government expect us to show photo ID to vote, then they should avail us of a universal form of photo ID, issued free of charge. A national ID card, if you will.
Of course, those on the right will scream that it is an intolerable outrage to expect a freeborn Englishman to carry an ID card; that will make us akin to a police state.
Accept when it comes to voting, apparently, when it's being justified to tackle a problem - voter fraud - that doesn't exist in any meaningful way in this country.
It's the shamelessness that really galls.
It's an expensive solution to a non existent problem. As of August 2020, one conviction and one caution had been secured for personation offences at elections held in 2019. There had been 20 allegations and the majority of cases led to no action....
A couple of orders of magnitude less than might be put off voting by this unnecessary scheme, very probably.
Any illegal vote represents the theft from another individual of their entire stake in democracy. If you want to trivialise it you should voluntarily disenfranchise yourself to show how trivial it is. Would you be happy with that!
You ignore my point, which was about the proportionality of the proposed measures. You are trivialising the costs.
No I am not. I don't know what they are anyway, but they wouldn't be much. Your link says the government wants to spend "millions". Millions is not very much these days.
With his majority he should stop being frit on a few things and go for it - planning changes looked dead due to local opposition but after this week they should feel better.
But he needs to get a grip on social care already.
He risks seriously upsetting voters in the South who are fed up with huge estates being built .
"Risks" is putting it mildly. That's arguably the single biggest factor behind the Tories losing Oxfordshire yesterday.
HMG is at least talking about building in the north, though the risk is that a bonfire of regulations will mean more ticky-tacky in the south-east. Investment in new housing and even new towns should be directed up north and wherever else the local economy needs rejuvenation.
Up North we don't need houses - that's a southern issue.
There is a simple test to housing - are houses prices above 2004 levels - if so you haven't built enough.
And that's the tightrope the government have to walk.
If house prices carry on rising, the government has failed. If house prices fall, some of those new homeowners are going to be stuck with negative equity, and they're not going to like the government at all.
Keeping that balance will require deftness of touch on the part of the gov... Oh dear.
The balance is to get incomes rising faster than house prices, thus lowering the house price to earnings ratio.
Was chatting to some people yesterday about Boris. One of the things which hit home was about his 'positivity.'
Contrast that with Keir Starmer, and Labour generally, who are miserable moaning minnies by comparison.
It was the 'can do' attitude of Boris which was praised. His galvanising effect which is emblematic of what the tories are doing in the former Red Wall. As someone commented yesterday, it's not these deprived towns which now feel left behind. It's the Labour Party.
Its probably Carrie's "can do " attitude that caused the row about wall paper... at least its not as costly a blunder as Boris Island Airport.... (imagine if that had been started by now....)
Wow you're bitter.
I couldn't give a flying fuck about his wallpaper. And no one I know could either.
They did well politically to spin the issue as just about wallpaper. If Johnson had received the 50-100k in a brown envelope, you and others might have taken a different view.
That Boris could (and did) successfully spin a corruption and possibly bribery issue as being a mere disagreement over wallpaper shows the failure of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition. Nonetheless, it might yet end Boris's premiership.
The media interviewed voters in the red wall seats and they were united on saying the wallpaper issue was irrelevant, one of them saying that Keir Starmer was more interested in Boris Johnson's wallpaper than them
Richard Nixon was elected President by what is still a record margin, after Watergate.
Wallpapergate is not about wallpaper.
I have a very good Russian friend.
At the very height of the MP's expenses scandal -- flipping second homes, duck houses & moats, wallpaper and curtains, Chaytor, Moran & Devine -- he said to me:
"This is not corruption. You guys don't even understand what real corruption is."
OK, there were some MPs, who did some silly things, some little dodges, tiny acts of grift, fiddling the photocopying receipts, employing the relatives.
Not good, I agree. But, that is not what real corruption is.
It is possible that the Labour can get the Tories on corruption, but if so, it won't be on silly little things, like Wallpaper-gate. To compare Watergate to Wallpaper-gate is to misunderstand grossly what corruption is.
What Cameron did is corrupt. Or stupid. Or both.
Any yet again, there is plenty of real corruption in Corruption Bay, where the Labour party presides over the only the UK Parliament without a register of lobbyists, and has done for over a quarter of a century.
You must be quite disappointed by the Welsh results?
I have a feeling your ideal result would have had ALL parties move backwards somewhat. Instead, Drake has wind in his sails and you’re stuck with RT for the foreseeable too.
Will PC dump Price? What ministry will Llafur give Dodds, if any?
I think it would have been far better for Wales if Llafur had lost 10 seats, and been forced into a coalition in which they were just one voice.
But, the polls were steadily moving in Drakeford's direction over April, so in the end, I was resigned to modest Labour seat losses. Of course, the Drake made a modest gain !
I expect Wales will continue to go backwards in health, education and economic matters -- as compared to say Scotland or Northern Ireland (we are well behind England).
But, at least Leanne Woods lost. I actually think she is responsible for a lot of the factionalism in Plaid Cymru, which has diminished it seriously as an electoral force. It is not often remembered, but in the first set of elections after devolution, Plaid Cymru did better than the SNP.
Plaid Cymru have made almost as many destructive choices as the LibDems, and Leanne is responsible for much of that.
As regards Drakeford, I probably prefer him to his likely successor, the odious Ken Skates, who unfortunately retained Clwyd South (a constituency in which I would have voted Tory to rid Wales of an incubus).
I would have preferred the LibDems to have retained Brecon & Radnorshire, as I have a high opinion of the candidate, William Powell. Instead, the LibDems lost in B&R but picked up the Mid-Wales list seat in compensation, so we have ended up with Jane Dodds who I actively dislike.
I am not really Pro-Any Party, but I am Pro-Wales. I think Wales lost in 2021, again.
Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.
He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
I disagree: I think the Conservatives have only modest opportunities to take further seats from Labour in the old "Red Wall", but are under threat 20-30 seats if tactical voting returns. My central prediction is that the Conservatives end up with a 35-50 seat majority next time around, off a broadly similar vote share as 2019.
I can see the Conservatives sweeping the north if they carry on like this, which I think they will
Human nature is to attribute one's successes to oneself, while blaming others for whatever problems might befall you.
Which is why governments tend to lose popularity over time. Objectively, the period from 1992 to 1997 was one of great prosperity, with rapid growth, falling unemployment, and the like. Yet the government had managed to store up enough grievances, and their opponents were willing to tactically vote.
My gut is that the Conservative vote share will hold up well in 2024 (and which, by the way, would be the highest vote share of either Lab or Con since... well... a long time ago...). But it only takes a modest amount of tactical voting for that to result in them seeing a smaller majority.
Except that, in 2020, the government had three events which caused their rating to fall as a visible step change, with stasis in between. One was in May, caused by the Durham fiasco. One was in August, caused by the exam fiasco. One was in December, caused by the lockdown fiasco.
The Great Vaccination reset things, and has given the government another life.
But to bet on the next GE is to bet on the ratio of fiascos to triumphs for this government...
Yes, three years is a long time, so a Labour revival is very possible. Hard to see Starmer going though he should.
The mechanisms to challenge a Labour Leader are a much higher bar than a Tory one.
Stepping back, why exactly do you think Starmer should go? I ask because there is a hell of a lot of spin out there, if not some campaigns against him. Is the by election loss enough (normally it wouldn’t) or was the 1% swing not enough.
Meanwhile, as Labour politicians are kicking lumps out of each other, Priti Patel is engaged in some GOP style voter suppression tactics and other electoral changes that should substantially benefit Conservative candidates.
Yeah it's disgusting. What will count as acceptable ID? OK, driving licence and passport, obvs. But what about work IDs, university IDs, any other non-governmental IDs with a photo on?
If the government expect us to show photo ID to vote, then they should avail us of a universal form of photo ID, issued free of charge. A national ID card, if you will.
Of course, those on the right will scream that it is an intolerable outrage to expect a freeborn Englishman to carry an ID card; that will make us akin to a police state.
Accept when it comes to voting, apparently, when it's being justified to tackle a problem - voter fraud - that doesn't exist in any meaningful way in this country.
It's the shamelessness that really galls.
It's quite transparent why they are doing so. A day after the Conservatives lose but two mayoralties they decide, let's change the system to our advantage.
I have a feeling that once the Covid dust settles, these sort of Dick Dastardly scams will blow up in their faces.
The only reason we have the Supplementary Vote system for Mayoral elections, rather than AV, is that SV is better for Labour than AV. It was a scam in the first place.
I prefer a Labour scam to a Tory one, but the status quo is short of a democratic ideal.
Given that 1/6 of votes in London were cast incorrectly SV seems too complex for the benefits it offers.
Give over.... We have already established on here that the problem was the design of the ballot paper, not the principle of the voting system. You Conservatives just can't help spinning everything, can you?
Well, first already big trucking operations are struggling to cover their delivery schedules. The @TheGrocer reported last month that Spar shops in midlands getting 'capped' deliveries...so less to sell /6
Everything's going so well for Johnson at the moment, I can't help feeling something's going to come out of the woodwork to derail his premiership at some point over the next 12 to 18 months. It happened to Tony Blair when he looked utterly invincible, first with the fuel protests in the year 2000, and the with Iraq in 2003. You could also include being slow-handclapped by the Women's Institute around the same time. I remember what a shock that was, because it was the first time anything had remotely gone wrong for him since he became leader of the Labour Party in 1994, even though it was rather trivial in hindsight.
I'm not sure the arrival of a pandemic classifies as going well. Provides opportunities for success or failure and massive spending.
Covid has been sensationally good for the PM. OK so 150k people are dead but as Philip lovingly points out people die anyway. What Covid has done for the PM is lengthy - foster that blitz spirit, gain people's sympathy (he almost died / he's doing his best), spaff fucktons of money at people his party would not have given much of anything to otherwise, reward friends and party donors, and come out the back end with a vaccination boost.
What would the last 15 months have been like for him without Covid? All the focus would have been on Brexit, on a negotiation that failed to achieve any of its key objectives, of a chaotic exit of the EEA and CU, of cuts biting in places like Hartlepool.
There seem to be posts eulogising Liar like he is some kind of political genius - he isn't. Yes he is smart tactically but has never displayed any nous for strategy. He's just very very very lucky that disasters like Covid drop into his lap like a love bomb from General Galtieri did to transform Thatcher's premiership.
You really do come across as just plainly bitter
About what? I am (a) not pushing for Labour and (b) not that bothered about the Tories dominating England having left the country.
Engage on the point. The Tories would have had a tough year had it not been for Covid. The effective bribe money on offer to Hartlepool voters wouldn't have been there without Covid.
Untrue. Towns deal, future night street fund, levelling up funds. These are all pre covid town investment programmes.
Give over. Thats a sticking plaster at best. The towns deal at best pays for one project in one of the winning towns. And "levelling up funds" are what exactly? These areas needed hosing with cash - happened because of Covid and wouldn't have happened otherwise.
How can I say this with confidence? Because Mansfield. One of the early blue wins in the wall. Has had an enormous £12m. Wow! That will make all the difference...
Yes £12m is a lot of money. If you think it isn't then it goes to show that nothing will ever be good enough.
"Hosing with cash" isn't a solution either, what's needed is to create the conditions that allow for further growth, which creates a virtuous positive feedback loop.
When it comes to town centre improvements £12m really doesn't go very far.
For instance Middlesbrough Station is getting £35m and that really is a small station. Darlington Bank Top is getting £105m - so it's refurbished prior to the 2025 celebrations.
Anyway the big news today and I hope everyone is looking forward to it as much as I am - the Prime Minister telling us whether we are going to be allowed to hug our families.
Be still my beating heart...
Haven't seen my parents in 15 months. Expected them to die if they got Covid. Trust me, there are many of us whose heart is absolutely beating at the prospect of a hug from their mum.
Of course. But whether or not that might be safe is not going to be determined by whatever the PM might or might not say this afternoon.
True. They have now had both doses. I have had my first last week. So we're looking for a date I can come down later this month.
Point is though that going to see frail parents in the midst of a pandemic whilst exposed to pox risk on a daily basis through schools would have been bloody stupid.
Absolutely agree, and I don't dismiss the need for government to communicate health advice. However, the absurd 'drama' of today's supposed announcement is more than a little silly.
The Heavy Woollens are good old fashioned working class bigots. Don't like pikeys or foreigners, think they are patriots, want Asian criminals locked up.
Please do write labour leaflets. Pikeys (the term you used) are loathed when they turn up in areas make illegal camps etc etc. But I can understand why some who don’t interact with the mess afterwards might be dismissive to those that do. But when did it become bigoted to want to lock up Asian criminals?
Well, first already big trucking operations are struggling to cover their delivery schedules. The @TheGrocer reported last month that Spar shops in midlands getting 'capped' deliveries...so less to sell /6
Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.
He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
I disagree: I think the Conservatives have only modest opportunities to take further seats from Labour in the old "Red Wall", but are under threat 20-30 seats if tactical voting returns. My central prediction is that the Conservatives end up with a 35-50 seat majority next time around, off a broadly similar vote share as 2019.
I can see the Conservatives sweeping the north if they carry on like this, which I think they will
Human nature is to attribute one's successes to oneself, while blaming others for whatever problems might befall you.
Which is why governments tend to lose popularity over time. Objectively, the period from 1992 to 1997 was one of great prosperity, with rapid growth, falling unemployment, and the like. Yet the government had managed to store up enough grievances, and their opponents were willing to tactically vote.
My gut is that the Conservative vote share will hold up well in 2024 (and which, by the way, would be the highest vote share of either Lab or Con since... well... a long time ago...). But it only takes a modest amount of tactical voting for that to result in them seeing a smaller majority.
Except that, in 2020, the government had three events which caused their rating to fall as a visible step change, with stasis in between. One was in May, caused by the Durham fiasco. One was in August, caused by the exam fiasco. One was in December, caused by the lockdown fiasco.
The Great Vaccination reset things, and has given the government another life.
But to bet on the next GE is to bet on the ratio of fiascos to triumphs for this government...
Yes, three years is a long time, so a Labour revival is very possible. Hard to see Starmer going though he should.
The mechanisms to challenge a Labour Leader are a much higher bar than a Tory one.
Stepping back, why exactly do you think Starmer should go? I ask because there is a hell of a lot of spin out there, if not some campaigns against him. Is the by election loss enough (normally it wouldn’t) or was the 1% swing not enough.
Meanwhile, as Labour politicians are kicking lumps out of each other, Priti Patel is engaged in some GOP style voter suppression tactics and other electoral changes that should substantially benefit Conservative candidates.
Yeah it's disgusting. What will count as acceptable ID? OK, driving licence and passport, obvs. But what about work IDs, university IDs, any other non-governmental IDs with a photo on?
If the government expect us to show photo ID to vote, then they should avail us of a universal form of photo ID, issued free of charge. A national ID card, if you will.
Of course, those on the right will scream that it is an intolerable outrage to expect a freeborn Englishman to carry an ID card; that will make us akin to a police state.
Accept when it comes to voting, apparently, when it's being justified to tackle a problem - voter fraud - that doesn't exist in any meaningful way in this country.
It's the shamelessness that really galls.
It's an expensive solution to a non existent problem. As of August 2020, one conviction and one caution had been secured for personation offences at elections held in 2019. There had been 20 allegations and the majority of cases led to no action....
A couple of orders of magnitude less than might be put off voting by this unnecessary scheme, very probably.
Any illegal vote represents the theft from another individual of their entire stake in democracy. If you want to trivialise it you should voluntarily disenfranchise yourself to show how trivial it is. Would you be happy with that!
You ignore my point, which was about the proportionality of the proposed measures. You are trivialising the costs.
No I am not. I don't know what they are anyway, but they wouldn't be much. Your link says the government wants to spend "millions". Millions is not very much these days.
The cost is also (and more importantly) measured on how many votes such measures might discourage.
Great to see Boris’s Tories described as ‘Blue Labour’. That’s who I have wanted to vote for all along. I thought Ed Miliband was going to go down that route when he enlisted the help of Maurice Glasman, but he bottled it. It seems many ex Labour voters feel the same
Well, first already big trucking operations are struggling to cover their delivery schedules. The @TheGrocer reported last month that Spar shops in midlands getting 'capped' deliveries...so less to sell /6
Not a surprise and it's going to get a whole lot worse.
A lot of drivers have gone back home to Europe.
The IR35 changes back in April have seriously reduced the take home pay of agency drivers where previously limited companies and any other trick you can think of has been used to keep costs as low as possible.
Basically delivery costs are going to have to rise 20-30% (to cover tax that was previously being avoided) and no one wishes to pay for it.
Oh and next week everyone is going to want to spend the week in the pub.
Not to speak for anyone else, but if @RochdalePioneers had wanted to go to see his parents over the past 15 months he could have done so rather than wait for his hero Boris to tell him he could.
Well, first already big trucking operations are struggling to cover their delivery schedules. The @TheGrocer reported last month that Spar shops in midlands getting 'capped' deliveries...so less to sell /6
I'm sure the HGV drivers when they go to vote next are going to be distraught at the idea they might get more pay. Absolutely devastated. Importing more people who are willing to work at minimum wage is not the solution to drive the economy forwards instead of paying people a decent wage and investing to become more efficient.
Ladbrokes Batley and Spen Conservatives 1/4 Labour 3/1
The Conservatives certainly have a good chance in Batley and Spen which was 60% Leave and where the Tories and Labour were neck and neck on Thursday in the locals.
However the LDs made gains in Bucks too and will fancy their chances of making inroads or even taking Chesham and Amersham too which was 55% Remain
Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.
He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
I disagree: I think the Conservatives have only modest opportunities to take further seats from Labour in the old "Red Wall", but are under threat 20-30 seats if tactical voting returns. My central prediction is that the Conservatives end up with a 35-50 seat majority next time around, off a broadly similar vote share as 2019.
I can see the Conservatives sweeping the north if they carry on like this, which I think they will
Human nature is to attribute one's successes to oneself, while blaming others for whatever problems might befall you.
Which is why governments tend to lose popularity over time. Objectively, the period from 1992 to 1997 was one of great prosperity, with rapid growth, falling unemployment, and the like. Yet the government had managed to store up enough grievances, and their opponents were willing to tactically vote.
My gut is that the Conservative vote share will hold up well in 2024 (and which, by the way, would be the highest vote share of either Lab or Con since... well... a long time ago...). But it only takes a modest amount of tactical voting for that to result in them seeing a smaller majority.
Except that, in 2020, the government had three events which caused their rating to fall as a visible step change, with stasis in between. One was in May, caused by the Durham fiasco. One was in August, caused by the exam fiasco. One was in December, caused by the lockdown fiasco.
The Great Vaccination reset things, and has given the government another life.
But to bet on the next GE is to bet on the ratio of fiascos to triumphs for this government...
Yes, three years is a long time, so a Labour revival is very possible. Hard to see Starmer going though he should.
The mechanisms to challenge a Labour Leader are a much higher bar than a Tory one.
Stepping back, why exactly do you think Starmer should go? I ask because there is a hell of a lot of spin out there, if not some campaigns against him. Is the by election loss enough (normally it wouldn’t) or was the 1% swing not enough.
Meanwhile, as Labour politicians are kicking lumps out of each other, Priti Patel is engaged in some GOP style voter suppression tactics and other electoral changes that should substantially benefit Conservative candidates.
Yeah it's disgusting. What will count as acceptable ID? OK, driving licence and passport, obvs. But what about work IDs, university IDs, any other non-governmental IDs with a photo on?
If the government expect us to show photo ID to vote, then they should avail us of a universal form of photo ID, issued free of charge. A national ID card, if you will.
Of course, those on the right will scream that it is an intolerable outrage to expect a freeborn Englishman to carry an ID card; that will make us akin to a police state.
Accept when it comes to voting, apparently, when it's being justified to tackle a problem - voter fraud - that doesn't exist in any meaningful way in this country.
It's the shamelessness that really galls.
It's quite transparent why they are doing so. A day after the Conservatives lose but two mayoralties they decide, let's change the system to our advantage.
I have a feeling that once the Covid dust settles, these sort of Dick Dastardly scams will blow up in their faces.
The only reason we have the Supplementary Vote system for Mayoral elections, rather than AV, is that SV is better for Labour than AV. It was a scam in the first place.
I prefer a Labour scam to a Tory one, but the status quo is short of a democratic ideal.
Given that 1/6 of votes in London were cast incorrectly SV seems too complex for the benefits it offers.
Give over.... We have already established on here that the problem was the design of the ballot paper, not the principle of the voting system. You Conservatives just can't help spinning everything, can you?
I'm not a Tory - but I don't think design is the only issue.
The Heavy Woollens are good old fashioned working class bigots. Don't like pikeys or foreigners, think they are patriots, want Asian criminals locked up.
Let's identify and demonise an outgroup. Such larks.
Comments
She had absolutely nothing to say!
A waste of everyone’s time
"One must be as radical as reality itself." As Father Lenin, who was correct in all things, said.
Conservatives 1/4
Labour 3/1
If you are lucky enough to get a tenant who isn't into stealing boilers a LHA rate of £550 a month generates a decent return.
If you haven't seen your parents in 15 months that is on you. Isolate yourself for 14 days and go to see them.
If house prices carry on rising, the government has failed.
If house prices fall, some of those new homeowners are going to be stuck with negative equity, and they're not going to like the government at all.
Keeping that balance will require deftness of touch on the part of the gov... Oh dear.
A further refinement of the absurd Nadine Dorries....
But, the polls were steadily moving in Drakeford's direction over April, so in the end, I was resigned to modest Labour seat losses. Of course, the Drake made a modest gain !
I expect Wales will continue to go backwards in health, education and economic matters -- as compared to say Scotland or Northern Ireland (we are well behind England).
But, at least Leanne Woods lost. I actually think she is responsible for a lot of the factionalism in Plaid Cymru, which has diminished it seriously as an electoral force. It is not often remembered, but in the first set of elections after devolution, Plaid Cymru did better than the SNP.
Plaid Cymru have made almost as many destructive choices as the LibDems, and Leanne is responsible for much of that.
As regards Drakeford, I probably prefer him to his likely successor, the odious Ken Skates, who unfortunately retained Clwyd South (a constituency in which I would have voted Tory to rid Wales of an incubus).
I would have preferred the LibDems to have retained Brecon & Radnorshire, as I have a high opinion of the candidate, William Powell. Instead, the LibDems lost in B&R but picked up the Mid-Wales list seat in compensation, so we have ended up with Jane Dodds who I actively dislike.
I am not really Pro-Any Party, but I am Pro-Wales. I think Wales lost in 2021, again.
Having been a pretty successful commercial manager for a few decades, one of my favourite bits of management-speak bullshit is "the number is the number". You may not like the number. It may be difficult politically to manage. But there is avoiding it and no point trying to manipulate it or lie about it as the deception will bite far harder than the truth.
Yes won. It is what it is. Trying to claim that only constituency votes count, and that seats that just re-elected SNP MSPs by a wide margin actually voted against them as Murdo is doing is just stupid.
Wallpapergate is dangerous for Boris because he seems, at least at first glance and of course he still has not given a full account which might exonerate him, to have got himself tied up in technical offences. Can Boris rely on the Father Ted defence: it was just resting in my account?
Yes, we could have binned off the regulations. I could have seen them. I could have killed them - as we saw with the kill your Granny christmas amnesty and the monster spike through January.
I can isolate myself. I can't isolate my kids or my teaching assistant wife. And Pox spread like wildfire through schools.
Point is though that going to see frail parents in the midst of a pandemic whilst exposed to pox risk on a daily basis through schools would have been bloody stupid.
But you could have gone to see your parents if you managed it appropriately. If you had wanted to see them you could have seen them.
And newsflash - even with vaccines (90-95% efficacy?) the virus will be about and hence people will need to be aware of the risks after May 17th. Are you planning to go to see your parents on May 18th? Like it's all of a sudden safe?
For a number of reasons the govt has put the fear of bejeezus into the country about this so that BoJo can come onto our screens and pronounce himself as the bringer of hugs.
Meanwhile everyone had the option to think through the risks, based upon the available evidence, the whole time.
Conclusion: If Johnson can get to the next election without a major failure, he'll win. If there is a major failure, Starmer's profound mediocrity won't matter so much.
And depending on one's views of Johnson and his way of governing, a major failure is either impossible or inevitable.
Bookies are only interested in gamblers that lose.
Sturgeon's success was greatly aided by her presiding over the pandemic. Just as Drakeford's was. I lost count of the number of people who gave her credit for that and, probably, their votes. Her soft-pedalling indy during the campaign helped too.
There is nothing inevitable about independence. But it does require Westminster to start paying attention, and responding appropriately.
The Scots Tories held the line pretty successfully but all eyes now should turn to Anas Sarwar and his attempt to rebuild Scottish Labour. Ruth Davidson showed what can be done.
@Stocky This is certainly true.
All but one of our grandchildren are beyond the hugging stage.... two adults, four teenagers...... just one primary school age. And we won't see her for months; her bit of the family lives abroad.
The care home scandal will, I hope, prove to be just that and in that case absolutely, if you try to see your parents you are liable to be arrested.
For the remainder, it is up to individuals to assess the risks. Live with a TA and have kids? OK fine, isolate yourself in the home, take regular tests, and go to see your parents.
I have a friend whose wife is a nurse and they literally isolated her from him and their two children. Horrible, obvs, but they felt it was necessary.
Not to speak for anyone else, but if @RochdalePioneers had wanted to go to see his parents over the past 15 months he could have done so rather than wait for his hero Boris to tell him he could.
What is the equivalent level of such fraud in other comparable countries?
I take it you would be happy to be disenfranchised?
If you are doing it by registering no existent people there are better ways of resolving this by tightening up the registration. Again very difficult to get away with a substantial number without getting caught.
I prefer a Labour scam to a Tory one, but the status quo is short of a democratic ideal.
You only need to look at a map of the Welsh constituencies to see the large divide between the tightly packed South Wales for labour and the rest of the Principality
The good news is that Drakeford has defeated the independence cause and as I have said on several occasions, I give him great credit for that
The chance of me killing my dad has dropped sufficiently to make it ok. I don't get though how I could have managed it appropriately? Even last summer when a version of normal returned briefly they were either shielding or locked down due to the pox running rampant in the NW. And at my end with wife and kids in school there was no way to isolate myself from it.
Labour will be a very poor third in Chesham and Amersham (where really they shouldn't be given their new heartlands) and a poor second at Batley.
Not that it would fix anything but there comes a time when you need to clear out a leader who has failed to make an impression
Must dash will be back shortly.
With respect to the "you're bitter" argument have you now accepted that this was a statement made in error...? I don't care whether you have or haven't, I'm just curious.
@LogisticsUKNews @RHARodMcKenzie Well it's a triple whammy of factors:
1. Brexit/Covid (EU drivers which UK was reliant upon going home)
2. Covid. 28,000 HGV tests missed during lockdown
3. Brexit/Immigration: no legal route to recruit foreign HGV drivers /3
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1391679496722468866
"Hosing with cash" isn't a solution either, what's needed is to create the conditions that allow for further growth, which creates a virtuous positive feedback loop.
*I doubt he will. He has a flourishing, lucrative media (and promising culinary) career and has moved on from politics, which is the nation’s loss.
Furthermore, I really do think Sturgeon only values her own legacy, and she will not gamble it without a clear majority of Scots demanding it, and that is not the same as a SNP/Green alliance promoting it
We’re talking fractions of a percent, ffs
That’s the least painful long term solution.
If there's a shortage of drivers then hire drivers, and pay them a decent wage.
Maybe some Deliveroo style drivers might want to train to be HGV drivers if offered a decent wage for doing the job.
Well, first already big trucking operations are struggling to cover their delivery schedules. The @TheGrocer reported last month that Spar shops in midlands getting 'capped' deliveries...so less to sell /6
https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/wholesalers/driver-shortage-leading-to-availability-issues-in-convenience-stores/655558.article#.YIp5On5TvHo.twitter
I'm not.
For instance Middlesbrough Station is getting £35m and that really is a small station. Darlington Bank Top is getting £105m - so it's refurbished prior to the 2025 celebrations.
However, the absurd 'drama' of today's supposed announcement is more than a little silly.
Tories 47.2%
Brexit 2.0%
Scotland E 21 (Independence)
SNP 47.7%
Green 1.3%
The SNP mandate in Scotland is just as strong as the Tory mandate in England.
A lot of drivers have gone back home to Europe.
The IR35 changes back in April have seriously reduced the take home pay of agency drivers where previously limited companies and any other trick you can think of has been used to keep costs as low as possible.
Basically delivery costs are going to have to rise 20-30% (to cover tax that was previously being avoided) and no one wishes to pay for it.
Oh and next week everyone is going to want to spend the week in the pub.
https://twitter.com/BigB3nn_/status/1391680662818721792
Benjamin
@BigB3nn_
Excellent news, hopefully it will lead to an improvement in pay and conditions for drivers who have had the piss taken out of them for far too long
I'm sure the HGV drivers when they go to vote next are going to be distraught at the idea they might get more pay. Absolutely devastated. Importing more people who are willing to work at minimum wage is not the solution to drive the economy forwards instead of paying people a decent wage and investing to become more efficient.
However the LDs made gains in Bucks too and will fancy their chances of making inroads or even taking Chesham and Amersham too which was 55% Remain
And the market will correct it, with higher prices and reduced availability.
I thought that EVS was a massive lay, but maybe he’s in more trouble than I thought
https://twitter.com/pmdfoster/status/1391683644167802885
You'd rather import more people to work for minimum wage supplemented by in-work benefits instead?