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For the first time since GE2019 a CON overall majority is now favourite next general election outcom

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited May 9 in General
imageFor the first time since GE2019 a CON overall majority is now favourite next general election outcome – politicalbetting.com

In many ways it is quite extraordinary that on no occasion until this weekend general election in December 2019 has a Conservatives majority being the betting favourite for what will happen next time. The betdata.io above shows how the mood on the betting markets has changed over the past year or so and now the money is going on the Tories doing it.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 37,868
    First
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited May 9
    There is many things that could still go badly wrong for the Tories and I don't mean Boris flat refurb. The magic money forest is going to need to be replanted at some point and tough decisions will have to be made.

    Also, I am not convincesld the flat cap and whippet brigade are now Tory through and through...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889
    According to Sky the Tories would indeed win another majority of 48 if the local elections swing was repeated at the next general election but they would be down 16 seats to 349.

    The biggest gainers would be the LDs who would be up 11 seats, mainly in southern Remain areas, Labour would be up just 3 seats and the SNP up 2

    https://news.sky.com/story/election-results-tories-majority-would-be-cut-if-local-voting-was-translated-nationally-sky-news-analysis-12300569
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    Housekeeping question - had a couple posts recently that appear to have disappeared totally from the PB archive.

    Was this a unfortunate glitch? Well-deserved sanction? Work of the devil?

    Nothing imperishable OR actionable. Just curious.

    Only posts that I ever really wanted to save for posterity, got gobbled up - like everyone else from Classic PB - years ago.
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,614
    It's not all re-alignment. If the election cycle was summed up in 1 word it would be - Incumbency.

    All the high profile incumbents held or gained votes from Sturgeon to Drakeford to Khan to Johnson to Burnham.

    Not saying Labour don't have issues, not by a long, long chalk but: would Attlee have won an election in January 1945?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Keep an eye on the last point, everyone. If the Greens start polling several thousand votes in seats where they currently poll several hundred, then they are likely to come disproportionately from disgruntled ex-Labour voters of the radical left persuasion. It's the only place for people of that ilk who take strongly against Starmer to go.

    The greater the degree of fragmentation on the Left, the better for the Tories.

    There is many things that could still go badly wrong for the Tories and I don't mean Boris flat refurb. The magic money forest is going to need to be replanted at some point and tough decisions will have to be made.

    Also, I am not convinced the flat cap and whippet brigade are now Tory through and through...

    Absolutely true, but the Labour robot voter is, in large swathes of the land, a thing of the past.

    Having broken the habit of several lifetimes, that constituency seems unlikely to go back in a hurry or without very good reason, and there's no Farageist movement for them to defect to anymore, either.

    The Tories can't take their new coalition for granted, but one suspects that they aren't exactly itching for an excuse to go back to Labour, either.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    Sunil, know your an avid train rider. So three questions

    > did you ever observe Angela Rayner hoggging a whole compartment?

    > is is possible, that she saw you on a train, and lept to the (unwarranted obviously) conclusion you were a danger to her, yourself and/or others?

    > did you ever share a boxcar with Boxcar Willie?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 30,310

    There is many things that could still go badly wrong for the Tories and I don't mean Boris flat refurb. The magic money forest is going to need to be replanted at some point and tough decisions will have to be made.

    Also, I am not convincesld the flat cap and whippet brigade are now Tory through and through...

    The Bank has already fired the gun and given forwards guidance on interest rate rises at the back of 2021 and throughout 2022. The BoE clearly wants to reload the chambers sooner rather than later. It makes sense, we don't need 0.1% interest rates or any more QE, the economy will be back to where we were pre virus by around October/November this year and there may be no real permanent scarring as 2022 also looks like it will be a good year and make up for a lot of the lost growth trajectory from 2020 and 2021.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    HYUFD said:

    According to Sky the Tories would indeed win another majority of 48 if the local elections swing was repeated at the next general election but they would be down 16 seats to 349.

    The biggest gainers would be the LDs who would be up 11 seats, mainly in southern Remain areas, Labour would be up just 3 seats and the SNP up 2

    https://news.sky.com/story/election-results-tories-majority-would-be-cut-if-local-voting-was-translated-nationally-sky-news-analysis-12300569

    Has there ever been local elections which didn't over-predict LibDem seats at the next general election ?
    QTWTAIN. These kinds of prognostications are truly worthless.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219

    Keep an eye on the last point, everyone. If the Greens start polling several thousand votes in seats where they currently poll several hundred, then they are likely to come disproportionately from disgruntled ex-Labour voters of the radical left persuasion. It's the only place for people of that ilk who take strongly against Starmer to go.

    The greater the degree of fragmentation on the Left, the better for the Tories.

    There is many things that could still go badly wrong for the Tories and I don't mean Boris flat refurb. The magic money forest is going to need to be replanted at some point and tough decisions will have to be made.

    Also, I am not convinced the flat cap and whippet brigade are now Tory through and through...

    Absolutely true, but the Labour robot voter is, in large swathes of the land, a thing of the past.

    Having broken the habit of several lifetimes, that constituency seems unlikely to go back in a hurry or without very good reason, and there's no Farageist movement for them to defect to anymore, either.

    The Tories can't take their new coalition for granted, but one suspects that they aren't exactly itching for an excuse to go back to Labour, either.
    Skimming through returns, got the impression that while a good portion of increased Green votes came from Labour lefties, they were NOT the only source.

    For example, in Wales looked like some recovering Kippers voted Green?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 4,347
    Tory majority > 100.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    edited May 9

    Strange, I remember reading that Boris only knew how to beat discredited losers like Ken Livingstone and Jeremy Corbyn. Surely the tremendously forensic Sir Keir should be cleaning up by now against such a weak opponent?

    Unless...

    Once said on PB (a post that has been mercifully consigned to oblivion) that Boris Johnson was less likely to become Mayor of London than Dick Wittington's cat.

    Boy did I have egg on MY face. And still do!

    Though personally still think the feline better qualified, and NOT just for mayor.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 21,306
    Mike

    I think the Conservatives made a net gain among the Hertfordshire councils.

    Perhaps you should substitute Oxfordshire for Hertfordshire.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 30,310

    Tory majority > 100.

    Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.

    He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 41,201

    Strange, I remember reading that Boris only knew how to beat discredited losers like Ken Livingstone and Jeremy Corbyn. Surely the tremendously forensic Sir Keir should be cleaning up by now against such a weak opponent?

    Unless...

    Once said on PB (a post that has been mercifully consigned to oblivion) that Boris Johnson was less likely to become Mayor of London than Dick Wittington's cat.

    Boy did I have egg on MY face. And still do!

    Though personally still think the feline better qualified, and NOT just for mayor.
    When he has been Prime Minister for 18 years, people will still think "Boris Johnson - flash in the pan...." Lots have lost money underestimating Boris.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    MaxPB said:

    There is many things that could still go badly wrong for the Tories and I don't mean Boris flat refurb. The magic money forest is going to need to be replanted at some point and tough decisions will have to be made.

    Also, I am not convincesld the flat cap and whippet brigade are now Tory through and through...

    The Bank has already fired the gun and given forwards guidance on interest rate rises at the back of 2021 and throughout 2022. The BoE clearly wants to reload the chambers sooner rather than later. It makes sense, we don't need 0.1% interest rates or any more QE, the economy will be back to where we were pre virus by around October/November this year and there may be no real permanent scarring as 2022 also looks like it will be a good year and make up for a lot of the lost growth trajectory from 2020 and 2021.
    If we are fortunate then the big medium-term economic impacts of Covid may turn out to be (1) a large pile of extra Government debt, but debt taken out at exceptionally low interest rates against the background of forgiving money markets; (2) an acceleration in the move to online retail, which would only have happened over the next few years regardless; and (3) more working from home, which may well create more wealth than it destroys (by greatly cutting down on the time and money wasted through unnecessary commuting, and boosting disposable income and savings rates.)

    The major challenges that the country faces going forward may have less to do with business failures and unemployment, and more to do with healthcare backlogs and lost time in school.
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 1,623
    So when do we think SKS will have to resign?

    I think he may well limp on for now but if Lab do badly in local elections 2022 then he may be pushed then (I know Lab aren't known for ousting leaders but this one time they may succeed)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804
    The only question about the header is "What took you so long"?
    Agree much can go wrong, but any Party with an 80 seat majority has to be heavy favourite whatever the circumstances.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    Any returns yet from Wokeshire?

    OR is the local council still conducting diversity/gender/emotional/sensory/culinary-sensitivity workshops & trainings for its ballot-box runners & vote-counters?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889
    edited May 9

    Mike

    I think the Conservatives made a net gain among the Hertfordshire councils.

    Perhaps you should substitute Oxfordshire for Hertfordshire.

    Indeed, the Tories lost seats in the poshest most upper middle class home counties, Oxfordshire and Surrey and Buckinghamshire unitary, mainly to the LDs and Independents and some Greens.

    Hertfordshire is not as posh as those counties, with the notable exception of St Albans and more like Kent and Essex with lots of white working class and lower middle class residents and the Tories made gains on the whole there
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    edited May 9

    Keep an eye on the last point, everyone. If the Greens start polling several thousand votes in seats where they currently poll several hundred, then they are likely to come disproportionately from disgruntled ex-Labour voters of the radical left persuasion. It's the only place for people of that ilk who take strongly against Starmer to go.

    The greater the degree of fragmentation on the Left, the better for the Tories.

    There is many things that could still go badly wrong for the Tories and I don't mean Boris flat refurb. The magic money forest is going to need to be replanted at some point and tough decisions will have to be made.

    Also, I am not convinced the flat cap and whippet brigade are now Tory through and through...

    Absolutely true, but the Labour robot voter is, in large swathes of the land, a thing of the past.

    Having broken the habit of several lifetimes, that constituency seems unlikely to go back in a hurry or without very good reason, and there's no Farageist movement for them to defect to anymore, either.

    The Tories can't take their new coalition for granted, but one suspects that they aren't exactly itching for an excuse to go back to Labour, either.
    Well not if they keep calling them thick racists and then pretendy flag shagging stuff.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    edited May 9

    Strange, I remember reading that Boris only knew how to beat discredited losers like Ken Livingstone and Jeremy Corbyn. Surely the tremendously forensic Sir Keir should be cleaning up by now against such a weak opponent?

    Unless...

    Once said on PB (a post that has been mercifully consigned to oblivion) that Boris Johnson was less likely to become Mayor of London than Dick Wittington's cat.

    Boy did I have egg on MY face. And still do!

    Though personally still think the feline better qualified, and NOT just for mayor.
    When he has been Prime Minister for 18 years, people will still think "Boris Johnson - flash in the pan...." Lots have lost money underestimating Boris.
    Am sure you are right - and also correct - on both counts.

    Though wonder why YOU too are underestimating your hero? Only 18 years?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 54,871

    There is many things that could still go badly wrong for the Tories and I don't mean Boris flat refurb. The magic money forest is going to need to be replanted at some point and tough decisions will have to be made.

    Also, I am not convincesld the flat cap and whippet brigade are now Tory through and through...

    Yeah, I think the next election will be very close.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889

    So when do we think SKS will have to resign?

    I think he may well limp on for now but if Lab do badly in local elections 2022 then he may be pushed then (I know Lab aren't known for ousting leaders but this one time they may succeed)

    Unless Burnham is an MP by then and replaces him removing Starmer would do nothing to help Labour at all, its problems run far deeper than him, they were trounced in 2019 before he became leader after all
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    HYUFD said:

    So when do we think SKS will have to resign?

    I think he may well limp on for now but if Lab do badly in local elections 2022 then he may be pushed then (I know Lab aren't known for ousting leaders but this one time they may succeed)

    Unless Burnham is an MP by then and replaces him removing Starmer would do nothing to help Labour at all, its problems run far deeper than him, they were trounced in 2019 before he became leader after all
    Tories tried reshuffling the deck chairs during the Blair Era, without notable success.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Mike

    I think the Conservatives made a net gain among the Hertfordshire councils.

    Perhaps you should substitute Oxfordshire for Hertfordshire.

    The LDs advanced and won control of St Albans, the Tories advanced and won control of Welwyn Hatfield, the Conservatives improved their position in Stevenage from a relatively low base, and there was a small shift from Con to LD at county level. Some shuffling about, but hardly the 'sizeable losses' suggested.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    So HYUFD, are you up for serving as a PB Privy Councillor?

    AND do you have an actual privy? Or will you need to pop down to the pub?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Strange, I remember reading that Boris only knew how to beat discredited losers like Ken Livingstone and Jeremy Corbyn. Surely the tremendously forensic Sir Keir should be cleaning up by now against such a weak opponent?

    Unless...

    Once said on PB (a post that has been mercifully consigned to oblivion) that Boris Johnson was less likely to become Mayor of London than Dick Wittington's cat.

    Boy did I have egg on MY face. And still do!

    Though personally still think the feline better qualified, and NOT just for mayor.
    Then you have seen, my dear Irish, but you have not observed.

    London is still stuffed to the gills with people who vowed they'd leave if he ever became mayor...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889

    HYUFD said:

    So when do we think SKS will have to resign?

    I think he may well limp on for now but if Lab do badly in local elections 2022 then he may be pushed then (I know Lab aren't known for ousting leaders but this one time they may succeed)

    Unless Burnham is an MP by then and replaces him removing Starmer would do nothing to help Labour at all, its problems run far deeper than him, they were trounced in 2019 before he became leader after all
    Tories tried reshuffling the deck chairs during the Blair Era, without notable success.
    Replacing Hague with IDS then Howard gained the Tories precisely 0.7% extra voteshare from 2001 to 2005, it was only Cameron who really made an advance, which Boris then put rocket boosters on in 2019
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So when do we think SKS will have to resign?

    I think he may well limp on for now but if Lab do badly in local elections 2022 then he may be pushed then (I know Lab aren't known for ousting leaders but this one time they may succeed)

    Unless Burnham is an MP by then and replaces him removing Starmer would do nothing to help Labour at all, its problems run far deeper than him, they were trounced in 2019 before he became leader after all
    Tories tried reshuffling the deck chairs during the Blair Era, without notable success.
    Replacing Hague with IDS then Howard gained the Tories precisely 0.7% extra voteshare from 2001 to 2005, it was only Cameron who really made an advance, which Boris then put rocket boosters on in 2019
    After Blair had exited stage right.
  • StuartinromfordStuartinromford Posts: 3,719
    RobD said:

    There is many things that could still go badly wrong for the Tories and I don't mean Boris flat refurb. The magic money forest is going to need to be replanted at some point and tough decisions will have to be made.

    Also, I am not convincesld the flat cap and whippet brigade are now Tory through and through...

    Yeah, I think the next election will be very close.
    It might, or it might not.
    Boris may continue to defy gravity and dodge the bullets. He's built to do that.
    Equally, one of the bullets may eventually hit; there are an awful lot of bullets heading in his general direction.

    What I do expect is that the end, when it comes, will be incredibly swift. The unknown is which side of the next election it comes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 67,843

    So HYUFD, are you up for serving as a PB Privy Councillor?

    AND do you have an actual privy? Or will you need to pop down to the pub?

    I'd think if someone is providing you counsel, as a councillor, it's up to you to provide them a privy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 87,889

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So when do we think SKS will have to resign?

    I think he may well limp on for now but if Lab do badly in local elections 2022 then he may be pushed then (I know Lab aren't known for ousting leaders but this one time they may succeed)

    Unless Burnham is an MP by then and replaces him removing Starmer would do nothing to help Labour at all, its problems run far deeper than him, they were trounced in 2019 before he became leader after all
    Tories tried reshuffling the deck chairs during the Blair Era, without notable success.
    Replacing Hague with IDS then Howard gained the Tories precisely 0.7% extra voteshare from 2001 to 2005, it was only Cameron who really made an advance, which Boris then put rocket boosters on in 2019
    After Blair had exited stage right.
    In which case Labour would have to wait for Boris to depart the stage to really make progress again, Boris like Blair being their party's best votewinner for over a generation
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219

    Strange, I remember reading that Boris only knew how to beat discredited losers like Ken Livingstone and Jeremy Corbyn. Surely the tremendously forensic Sir Keir should be cleaning up by now against such a weak opponent?

    Unless...

    Once said on PB (a post that has been mercifully consigned to oblivion) that Boris Johnson was less likely to become Mayor of London than Dick Wittington's cat.

    Boy did I have egg on MY face. And still do!

    Though personally still think the feline better qualified, and NOT just for mayor.
    Then you have seen, my dear Irish, but you have not observed.

    London is still stuffed to the gills with people who vowed they'd leave if he ever became mayor...
    Perhaps IF Boris had been a GOOD mayor - or was a good PM - he'd have made them keep their promise by driving them forcibly into exile?

    Instead, he just let them hang around to annoy you!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 16,425
    The silver lining of all this is that Labour have received a timely wake up call. If there had been no Hartlepool by-election it could have meandered on. It now has a chance to sort things out.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,186
    https://twitter.com/carolewalkercw/status/1391511092489342990

    Tonight
    @Jacob_Rees_Mogg
    tells
    @BBCcarolynquinn
    there will be legislation in Queens Speech to repeal Fixed Term Parliament Act. So
    @BorisJohnson
    would be able to call early general election..
  • FishingFishing Posts: 2,739
    edited May 9
    HYUFD said:

    So when do we think SKS will have to resign?

    I think he may well limp on for now but if Lab do badly in local elections 2022 then he may be pushed then (I know Lab aren't known for ousting leaders but this one time they may succeed)

    Unless Burnham is an MP by then and replaces him removing Starmer would do nothing to help Labour at all, its problems run far deeper than him, they were trounced in 2019 before he became leader after all
    Yes, Starmer doesn't have any deep support in the Party as far as I can tell, like David Cameron with the Conservatives back in the day. He was tolerated because they thought he was a winner, because he was there (the power of incumbency) and because there was no obvious alternative. Starmer is the same, but facing a much more formidable opponent than Gordon Brown.

    So he needs to look like a winner, and be better than any alternative. If those conditions no longer apply, his tenure will be measured in days.

    Party activists and MPs tend to want to win, but if they can't, they often think you might as well lose with the right policies.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 54,871
    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/carolewalkercw/status/1391511092489342990

    Tonight
    @Jacob_Rees_Mogg
    tells
    @BBCcarolynquinn
    there will be legislation in Queens Speech to repeal Fixed Term Parliament Act. So
    @BorisJohnson
    would be able to call early general election..

    Just rejoice at that news.

    Now, will they remember to bring back the Septennial act?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 4,347
    MaxPB said:

    Tory majority > 100.

    Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.

    He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
    The only people with a worse diagnosis of Labour's problems than Sir Keir Starmer are the continuity Corbynites.

    Maybe toppling Starmer will fix everything. But maybe it will make things worse. I'm reminded of all the coups in South Vietnam.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So when do we think SKS will have to resign?

    I think he may well limp on for now but if Lab do badly in local elections 2022 then he may be pushed then (I know Lab aren't known for ousting leaders but this one time they may succeed)

    Unless Burnham is an MP by then and replaces him removing Starmer would do nothing to help Labour at all, its problems run far deeper than him, they were trounced in 2019 before he became leader after all
    Tories tried reshuffling the deck chairs during the Blair Era, without notable success.
    Replacing Hague with IDS then Howard gained the Tories precisely 0.7% extra voteshare from 2001 to 2005, it was only Cameron who really made an advance, which Boris then put rocket boosters on in 2019
    After Blair had exited stage right.
    And the economy stage left.
  • isamisam Posts: 37,436
    I said to my girlfriend the other day that 7/4 on Con Maj was the best bet in the world and I should try and get 20k on it

    But I didn’t have a penny.

    A more popular leader, an 82 seat majority, leading in the polls at almost the half way stage... it is almost bomb proof
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    Jonathan said:

    The silver lining of all this is that Labour have received a timely wake up call. If there had been no Hartlepool by-election it could have meandered on. It now has a chance to sort things out.

    True. Even a tornado can have a silver lining.

    And Election 2021 was like a line of twisters racing across Kansas. General threat, somewhat localized, but massive destruction where one touches down.

    Just ask Dorothy. And Keir. Who is hoping the Wizard of OzMandy can get him back home?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    HYUFD said:

    Mike

    I think the Conservatives made a net gain among the Hertfordshire councils.

    Perhaps you should substitute Oxfordshire for Hertfordshire.

    Indeed, the Tories lost seats in the poshest most upper middle class home counties, Oxfordshire and Surrey and Buckinghamshire unitary, mainly to the LDs and Independents and some Greens.

    Hertfordshire is not as posh as those counties, with the notable exception of St Albans and more like Kent and Essex with lots of white working class and lower middle class residents and the Tories made gains on the whole there
    Herts is small but heterogeneous, encompassing as it does over a million people.

    The Eastern half of the county would've been part of the Kingdom of Essex, if you go back far enough. One is also half-tempted to invoke the Danelaw boundary at this point. And then there are the new towns, the bits in the South that are almost part of London (some of which was inherited from Middlesex) and some of the Remainian spirit exhibiting itself in the North as well, where I suspect we have a meaningful cohort of exiles priced out of Cambridge.

    It's all quite complicated.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    Strange, I remember reading that Boris only knew how to beat discredited losers like Ken Livingstone and Jeremy Corbyn. Surely the tremendously forensic Sir Keir should be cleaning up by now against such a weak opponent?

    Unless...

    Once said on PB (a post that has been mercifully consigned to oblivion) that Boris Johnson was less likely to become Mayor of London than Dick Wittington's cat.

    Boy did I have egg on MY face. And still do!

    Though personally still think the feline better qualified, and NOT just for mayor.
    Then you have seen, my dear Irish, but you have not observed.

    London is still stuffed to the gills with people who vowed they'd leave if he ever became mayor...
    Perhaps IF Boris had been a GOOD mayor - or was a good PM - he'd have made them keep their promise by driving them forcibly into exile?

    Instead, he just let them hang around to annoy you!
    Annoy me? Just imagining their faces over the last few days makes me smile...
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    edited May 9
    Sounds like Chapman and Starmer already know their Batley candidate. Reports suggest it won’t be someone local. I agree with the Caroline Flint suggestion but I wonder if too many bridges were burned when she spoke out against The Peoples Vote and voted against the party whip in 2019.

    The Tory candidate will equally be interesting. I’m expecting a fresh face as they went backwards on votes and share in 2019. It’ll will be interesting to see who Boris has up his sleeve, but will assume there are plenty of leave supporting Yorkshiremen and women they can pick from.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    edited May 9
    RobD said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/carolewalkercw/status/1391511092489342990

    Tonight
    @Jacob_Rees_Mogg
    tells
    @BBCcarolynquinn
    there will be legislation in Queens Speech to repeal Fixed Term Parliament Act. So
    @BorisJohnson
    would be able to call early general election..

    Just rejoice at that news.

    Now, will they remember to bring back the Septennial act?
    And the Black Act? THAT would REALLY get BLM going!

    Current Leader of the House IS noted for his progressivism.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 54,871

    RobD said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/carolewalkercw/status/1391511092489342990

    Tonight
    @Jacob_Rees_Mogg
    tells
    @BBCcarolynquinn
    there will be legislation in Queens Speech to repeal Fixed Term Parliament Act. So
    @BorisJohnson
    would be able to call early general election..

    Just rejoice at that news.

    Now, will they remember to bring back the Septennial act?
    And the Black Act? THAT would REALLY get BLM going!
    What has that got to do with anything? Jeez.
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    I think we're getting to the stage where X Factor politics means the Labour leader HAS to have a regional accent, regardless of what they're actually saying.

    Burnham makes me sick, but I suspect he might have a better chance that Starmer

    It really has come to this - cos he's got a scouse accent, he'll do better than anyone who has a London constituency

    We may as well just toss a coin or settle things by Twitter 'likes'
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    isam said:

    I said to my girlfriend the other day that 7/4 on Con Maj was the best bet in the world and I should try and get 20k on it

    But I didn’t have a penny.

    A more popular leader, an 82 seat majority, leading in the polls at almost the half way stage... it is almost bomb proof

    You've got a girlfriend, have you?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 54,871
    Brom said:

    Sounds like Chapman and Starmer already know their Batley candidate. Reports suggest it won’t be someone local. I agree with the Caroline Flint suggestion but I wonder if too many bridges were burned when she spoke out against The Peoples Vote and voted against the party whip in 2019.

    The Tory candidate will equally be interesting. I’m expecting a fresh face as they went backwards on votes and share in 2019. It’ll will be interesting to see who Boris has up his sleeve, but will assume there are plenty of leave supporting Yorkshiremen and women they can pick from.

    They've had good success with candidates parachuted in from the Cayman islands. Wonder if he's been looking there for some more options.
  • isamisam Posts: 37,436
    MaxPB said:

    Tory majority > 100.

    Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.

    He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
    Print up the electoral literature in the 64% of seats that voted Leave with a nice big pic of Sir Keir trying to box & this quote

    "I'm really pleased that, whatever outcome the next Prime Minister puts before us, whether that's a deal of some sort or no deal, we've agreed that it must be subject to another referendum, and in that referendum Remain must be an option, and Labour will be campaigning for Remain.

    That's a really important point of principle" - Sir Keir Starmer 2019
  • isamisam Posts: 37,436

    isam said:

    I said to my girlfriend the other day that 7/4 on Con Maj was the best bet in the world and I should try and get 20k on it

    But I didn’t have a penny.

    A more popular leader, an 82 seat majority, leading in the polls at almost the half way stage... it is almost bomb proof

    You've got a girlfriend, have you?
    You sound surprised! Yes I have!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 67,843
    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/carolewalkercw/status/1391511092489342990

    Tonight
    @Jacob_Rees_Mogg
    tells
    @BBCcarolynquinn
    there will be legislation in Queens Speech to repeal Fixed Term Parliament Act. So
    @BorisJohnson
    would be able to call early general election..

    Both parties wanted to repeal the Act, so aside from small details there cannot be that much argument about it.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804

    HYUFD said:

    Mike

    I think the Conservatives made a net gain among the Hertfordshire councils.

    Perhaps you should substitute Oxfordshire for Hertfordshire.

    Indeed, the Tories lost seats in the poshest most upper middle class home counties, Oxfordshire and Surrey and Buckinghamshire unitary, mainly to the LDs and Independents and some Greens.

    Hertfordshire is not as posh as those counties, with the notable exception of St Albans and more like Kent and Essex with lots of white working class and lower middle class residents and the Tories made gains on the whole there
    Herts is small but heterogeneous, encompassing as it does over a million people.

    The Eastern half of the county would've been part of the Kingdom of Essex, if you go back far enough. One is also half-tempted to invoke the Danelaw boundary at this point. And then there are the new towns, the bits in the South that are almost part of London (some of which was inherited from Middlesex) and some of the Remainian spirit exhibiting itself in the North as well, where I suspect we have a meaningful cohort of exiles priced out of Cambridge.

    It's all quite complicated.
    As indeed is the North. Teesside now more Tory than Surrey. S Yorks, Humberside and the rural NE following apace.
    Tyneside, W Yorks and N West moving at no greater speed than the national average.
  • PeterMannionPeterMannion Posts: 712
    I agree that the Labour majority odds were too high, but at 13% they could be a good trading bet, as any sign of improvement will make the odds go above 13% (regardless of the fact that it's still a very tough task)
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,195
    MaxPB said:

    Tory majority > 100.

    Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.

    He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
    You used the pub thing on a post in the last thread, commenting that Labour used to be the party of pint drinkers but is now the party of wine drinkers. It's common on here - most would rather have a pint with Boris rather than Keir.

    But I think, as a generalisation, that the 'bloke in the pub' thing is mildly sexist, not consciously so of course, and neglects the fact that half of the voters are female, and most of these don't want to be blokeish and drink pints down the pub. Indeed, many women drink wine down the pub.

    I expect now to be called 'woke' and that I'm the epitome of all that is wrong with the modern left and that's why we lost the red wall. But to me, women count (and vote).
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 4,347
    Jonathan said:

    The silver lining of all this is that Labour have received a timely wake up call. If there had been no Hartlepool by-election it could have meandered on. It now has a chance to sort things out.

    Things can always get better.

    It's always harder than it looks though. And right now it looks very hard.
  • isamisam Posts: 37,436

    MaxPB said:

    Tory majority > 100.

    Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.

    He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
    You used the pub thing on a post in the last thread, commenting that Labour used to be the party of pint drinkers but is now the party of wine drinkers. It's common on here - most would rather have a pint with Boris rather than Keir.

    But I think, as a generalisation, that the 'bloke in the pub' thing is mildly sexist, not consciously so of course, and neglects the fact that half of the voters are female, and most of these don't want to be blokeish and drink pints down the pub. Indeed, many women drink wine down the pub.

    I expect now to be called 'woke' and that I'm the epitome of all that is wrong with the modern left and that's why we lost the red wall. But to me, women count (and vote).
    No, women like fine wine, Belgian chocolates, Hello magazine & the manly smell of a pipe!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219

    I think we're getting to the stage where X Factor politics means the Labour leader HAS to have a regional accent, regardless of what they're actually saying.

    Burnham makes me sick, but I suspect he might have a better chance that Starmer

    It really has come to this - cos he's got a scouse accent, he'll do better than anyone who has a London constituency

    We may as well just toss a coin or settle things by Twitter 'likes'

    Where is Dr Doolittle when we need him?

    "I can turn a Mayfair Duchess into a Middlesbrough Dental Hygienist!"
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 67,843
    RobD said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/carolewalkercw/status/1391511092489342990

    Tonight
    @Jacob_Rees_Mogg
    tells
    @BBCcarolynquinn
    there will be legislation in Queens Speech to repeal Fixed Term Parliament Act. So
    @BorisJohnson
    would be able to call early general election..

    Just rejoice at that news.

    Now, will they remember to bring back the Septennial act?
    No new legislation (even restoration of old Acts) until they either enforce existing Acts (or repeal the ones they do not want) - why'd they even pass the Easter Act 1928 if they were never going to enforce it?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804

    I think we're getting to the stage where X Factor politics means the Labour leader HAS to have a regional accent, regardless of what they're actually saying.

    Burnham makes me sick, but I suspect he might have a better chance that Starmer

    It really has come to this - cos he's got a scouse accent, he'll do better than anyone who has a London constituency

    We may as well just toss a coin or settle things by Twitter 'likes'

    What's his Scouse accent got to do with owt? (He doesn't have one btw). You would have thought that might be a drawback on getting 2/3 of the vote in GM.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/carolewalkercw/status/1391511092489342990

    Tonight
    @Jacob_Rees_Mogg
    tells
    @BBCcarolynquinn
    there will be legislation in Queens Speech to repeal Fixed Term Parliament Act. So
    @BorisJohnson
    would be able to call early general election..

    Just rejoice at that news.

    Now, will they remember to bring back the Septennial act?
    And the Black Act? THAT would REALLY get BLM going!
    What has that got to do with anything? Jeez.
    I am NOT the Son of God! Or even His third cousin twice removed.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219

    Strange, I remember reading that Boris only knew how to beat discredited losers like Ken Livingstone and Jeremy Corbyn. Surely the tremendously forensic Sir Keir should be cleaning up by now against such a weak opponent?

    Unless...

    Once said on PB (a post that has been mercifully consigned to oblivion) that Boris Johnson was less likely to become Mayor of London than Dick Wittington's cat.

    Boy did I have egg on MY face. And still do!

    Though personally still think the feline better qualified, and NOT just for mayor.
    Then you have seen, my dear Irish, but you have not observed.

    London is still stuffed to the gills with people who vowed they'd leave if he ever became mayor...
    Perhaps IF Boris had been a GOOD mayor - or was a good PM - he'd have made them keep their promise by driving them forcibly into exile?

    Instead, he just let them hang around to annoy you!
    Annoy me? Just imagining their faces over the last few days makes me smile...
    Watching their faces turn Blue?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,195
    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tory majority > 100.

    Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.

    He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
    You used the pub thing on a post in the last thread, commenting that Labour used to be the party of pint drinkers but is now the party of wine drinkers. It's common on here - most would rather have a pint with Boris rather than Keir.

    But I think, as a generalisation, that the 'bloke in the pub' thing is mildly sexist, not consciously so of course, and neglects the fact that half of the voters are female, and most of these don't want to be blokeish and drink pints down the pub. Indeed, many women drink wine down the pub.

    I expect now to be called 'woke' and that I'm the epitome of all that is wrong with the modern left and that's why we lost the red wall. But to me, women count (and vote).
    No, women like fine wine, Belgian chocolates, Hello magazine & the manly smell of a pipe!
    No surprise that you contribute to the stereotype. You should meet my wife - she doesn't quite fit it......
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 30,310

    MaxPB said:

    Tory majority > 100.

    Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.

    He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
    You used the pub thing on a post in the last thread, commenting that Labour used to be the party of pint drinkers but is now the party of wine drinkers. It's common on here - most would rather have a pint with Boris rather than Keir.

    But I think, as a generalisation, that the 'bloke in the pub' thing is mildly sexist, not consciously so of course, and neglects the fact that half of the voters are female, and most of these don't want to be blokeish and drink pints down the pub. Indeed, many women drink wine down the pub.

    I expect now to be called 'woke' and that I'm the epitome of all that is wrong with the modern left and that's why we lost the red wall. But to me, women count (and vote).
    Few things here, I'd suggest you're being mildly sexist because women can and do drink beer. Nowhere in my posts did I mention gender, you inferred that. I specifically said "wine drinkers at dinner parties" rather than "beer drinkers at the pub" that's not a male/female split and again, I'd suggest you're the one stereotyping by suggesting one.

    Ultimately, this is Labour's problem in a nutshell. You're bringing gender into something that doesn't need it, women also to to pubs (as much as men, in my experience) and they enjoy a drink and a chat at the pub (again, as much as men in my experience). The "would I want to have a drink with this person test" isn't just something men think about, women have the same test as well and for someone who likes to throw the sexism accusation around I think maybe a look in the mirror is necessary.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219

    HYUFD said:

    Mike

    I think the Conservatives made a net gain among the Hertfordshire councils.

    Perhaps you should substitute Oxfordshire for Hertfordshire.

    Indeed, the Tories lost seats in the poshest most upper middle class home counties, Oxfordshire and Surrey and Buckinghamshire unitary, mainly to the LDs and Independents and some Greens.

    Hertfordshire is not as posh as those counties, with the notable exception of St Albans and more like Kent and Essex with lots of white working class and lower middle class residents and the Tories made gains on the whole there
    Herts is small but heterogeneous, encompassing as it does over a million people.

    The Eastern half of the county would've been part of the Kingdom of Essex, if you go back far enough. One is also half-tempted to invoke the Danelaw boundary at this point. And then there are the new towns, the bits in the South that are almost part of London (some of which was inherited from Middlesex) and some of the Remainian spirit exhibiting itself in the North as well, where I suspect we have a meaningful cohort of exiles priced out of Cambridge.

    It's all quite complicated.
    "One is also half-tempted to invoke the Danelaw boundary at this point."

    If you compare a map of pre-1914 Poland, partitioned between three Empires, and overlay it on a map of the 2019 Polish presidential election, the correlation is both obvious & striking.
  • isamisam Posts: 37,436

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tory majority > 100.

    Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.

    He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
    You used the pub thing on a post in the last thread, commenting that Labour used to be the party of pint drinkers but is now the party of wine drinkers. It's common on here - most would rather have a pint with Boris rather than Keir.

    But I think, as a generalisation, that the 'bloke in the pub' thing is mildly sexist, not consciously so of course, and neglects the fact that half of the voters are female, and most of these don't want to be blokeish and drink pints down the pub. Indeed, many women drink wine down the pub.

    I expect now to be called 'woke' and that I'm the epitome of all that is wrong with the modern left and that's why we lost the red wall. But to me, women count (and vote).
    No, women like fine wine, Belgian chocolates, Hello magazine & the manly smell of a pipe!
    No surprise that you contribute to the stereotype. You should meet my wife - she doesn't quite fit it......
    Haha I’m quoting Swiss Toni from The Fast Show circa 1998!!

    I thought you sounded rather old fashioned to be honest, with the “women like wine” post. But never mind 😊
  • RobDRobD Posts: 54,871

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/carolewalkercw/status/1391511092489342990

    Tonight
    @Jacob_Rees_Mogg
    tells
    @BBCcarolynquinn
    there will be legislation in Queens Speech to repeal Fixed Term Parliament Act. So
    @BorisJohnson
    would be able to call early general election..

    Just rejoice at that news.

    Now, will they remember to bring back the Septennial act?
    And the Black Act? THAT would REALLY get BLM going!
    What has that got to do with anything? Jeez.
    I am NOT the Son of God! Or even His third cousin twice removed.
    What are you on about?
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tory majority > 100.

    Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.

    He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
    You used the pub thing on a post in the last thread, commenting that Labour used to be the party of pint drinkers but is now the party of wine drinkers. It's common on here - most would rather have a pint with Boris rather than Keir.

    But I think, as a generalisation, that the 'bloke in the pub' thing is mildly sexist, not consciously so of course, and neglects the fact that half of the voters are female, and most of these don't want to be blokeish and drink pints down the pub. Indeed, many women drink wine down the pub.

    I expect now to be called 'woke' and that I'm the epitome of all that is wrong with the modern left and that's why we lost the red wall. But to me, women count (and vote).
    No, women like fine wine, Belgian chocolates, Hello magazine & the manly smell of a pipe!
    No surprise that you contribute to the stereotype. You should meet my wife - she doesn't quite fit it......
    Ah, she prefers Swiss chocolates?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tory majority > 100.

    Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.

    He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
    You used the pub thing on a post in the last thread, commenting that Labour used to be the party of pint drinkers but is now the party of wine drinkers. It's common on here - most would rather have a pint with Boris rather than Keir.

    But I think, as a generalisation, that the 'bloke in the pub' thing is mildly sexist, not consciously so of course, and neglects the fact that half of the voters are female, and most of these don't want to be blokeish and drink pints down the pub. Indeed, many women drink wine down the pub.

    I expect now to be called 'woke' and that I'm the epitome of all that is wrong with the modern left and that's why we lost the red wall. But to me, women count (and vote).
    No, women like fine wine, Belgian chocolates, Hello magazine & the manly smell of a pipe!
    No surprise that you contribute to the stereotype. You should meet my wife - she doesn't quite fit it......
    She likes Belgian wine? And the smell of Hello magazine in her pipe?
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Floater said:

    https://twitter.com/carolewalkercw/status/1391511092489342990

    Tonight
    @Jacob_Rees_Mogg
    tells
    @BBCcarolynquinn
    there will be legislation in Queens Speech to repeal Fixed Term Parliament Act. So
    @BorisJohnson
    would be able to call early general election..

    Just rejoice at that news.

    Now, will they remember to bring back the Septennial act?
    And the Black Act? THAT would REALLY get BLM going!
    What has that got to do with anything? Jeez.
    I am NOT the Son of God! Or even His third cousin twice removed.
    What are you on about?
    What are YOU on about, calling yours truly Jesus? Even I think that blasphemous!
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,195
    edited May 9
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tory majority > 100.

    Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.

    He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
    You used the pub thing on a post in the last thread, commenting that Labour used to be the party of pint drinkers but is now the party of wine drinkers. It's common on here - most would rather have a pint with Boris rather than Keir.

    But I think, as a generalisation, that the 'bloke in the pub' thing is mildly sexist, not consciously so of course, and neglects the fact that half of the voters are female, and most of these don't want to be blokeish and drink pints down the pub. Indeed, many women drink wine down the pub.

    I expect now to be called 'woke' and that I'm the epitome of all that is wrong with the modern left and that's why we lost the red wall. But to me, women count (and vote).
    Few things here, I'd suggest you're being mildly sexist because women can and do drink beer. Nowhere in my posts did I mention gender, you inferred that. I specifically said "wine drinkers at dinner parties" rather than "beer drinkers at the pub" that's not a male/female split and again, I'd suggest you're the one stereotyping by suggesting one.

    Ultimately, this is Labour's problem in a nutshell. You're bringing gender into something that doesn't need it, women also to to pubs (as much as men, in my experience) and they enjoy a drink and a chat at the pub (again, as much as men in my experience). The "would I want to have a drink with this person test" isn't just something men think about, women have the same test as well and for someone who likes to throw the sexism accusation around I think maybe a look in the mirror is necessary.
    Methinks you doth protest too much. I wasn't just thinking of you, but you really can't deny that the 'pub test' is a blokeish one, that's just disingenuous. You wrote Those people who go to the local for a few jars after a day of work - you didn't specify men, good on you, and of course women drink beer at the pub. But most people would interpret a 'few jars after a day of work' to mean men - be honest. It's not a surprise on a site that is dominated by men, and of course I said I'd regret mentioning it, but there you go - as predicted, I was told to look in the mirror.

    And anyway, my main point was that I think the 'Boris brand' is a harder sell with female voters, who may run out of patience first.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    So when do we think SKS will have to resign?

    I think he may well limp on for now but if Lab do badly in local elections 2022 then he may be pushed then (I know Lab aren't known for ousting leaders but this one time they may succeed)

    Unless Burnham is an MP by then and replaces him removing Starmer would do nothing to help Labour at all, its problems run far deeper than him, they were trounced in 2019 before he became leader after all
    Tories tried reshuffling the deck chairs during the Blair Era, without notable success.
    Replacing Hague with IDS then Howard gained the Tories precisely 0.7% extra voteshare from 2001 to 2005, it was only Cameron who really made an advance, which Boris then put rocket boosters on in 2019
    After Blair had exited stage right.
    In which case Labour would have to wait for Boris to depart the stage to really make progress again, Boris like Blair being their party's best votewinner for over a generation
    You may have a point. Though would substitute "could" for would (in your comment & this one!)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    The next crisis for the Union will come when Holyrood approves a referendum bill and challenges Westminster to go to the Supreme Court to strike it down as illegal, which it would be.

    But the Johnson government need not fall into that trap.

    What if a private citizen took the Scottish Government to Scotland’s Court of Session, the highest court north of border, on the grounds that its referendum bill was illegal? Canny Unionists are thinking of a Scottish Gina Miller, the wealthy woman who used the English courts to cause the Brexiteers such pain.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9559933/ANDREW-NEIL-Nicola-Sturgeons-canny-switch-Arthur-Daley-proud.html
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 30,310
    edited May 9

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tory majority > 100.

    Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.

    He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
    You used the pub thing on a post in the last thread, commenting that Labour used to be the party of pint drinkers but is now the party of wine drinkers. It's common on here - most would rather have a pint with Boris rather than Keir.

    But I think, as a generalisation, that the 'bloke in the pub' thing is mildly sexist, not consciously so of course, and neglects the fact that half of the voters are female, and most of these don't want to be blokeish and drink pints down the pub. Indeed, many women drink wine down the pub.

    I expect now to be called 'woke' and that I'm the epitome of all that is wrong with the modern left and that's why we lost the red wall. But to me, women count (and vote).
    Few things here, I'd suggest you're being mildly sexist because women can and do drink beer. Nowhere in my posts did I mention gender, you inferred that. I specifically said "wine drinkers at dinner parties" rather than "beer drinkers at the pub" that's not a male/female split and again, I'd suggest you're the one stereotyping by suggesting one.

    Ultimately, this is Labour's problem in a nutshell. You're bringing gender into something that doesn't need it, women also to to pubs (as much as men, in my experience) and they enjoy a drink and a chat at the pub (again, as much as men in my experience). The "would I want to have a drink with this person test" isn't just something men think about, women have the same test as well and for someone who likes to throw the sexism accusation around I think maybe a look in the mirror is necessary.
    Methinks you doth protest too much. I wasn't just thinking of you, but you really can't deny that the 'pub test' is a blokeish one, that's just disingenuous. You wrote Those people who go to the local for a few jars after a day of work - you didn't specify men, good on you, and of course women drink beer at the pub. But most people would interpret a 'few jars after a day of work' to mean men - be honest. It's not a surprise on a site that is dominated by men, and of course I said I'd regret mentioning it, but there you go - as predicted, I was told to look in the mirror.
    Most people are wrong, then. The pub/drink test ultimately boils down to "would I want to meet this person socially" and "would they be good company". Again, if you're not just being obtuse and you really think this is a male exclusive test then maybe it's not me that's being sexist. You're trying to put words in my mouth that I didn't say based in your own sexist prejudices about women who apparently all drink wine and don't socialise with people at the pub.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    dixiedean said:

    You know commenting on a niche politics website is very much like making love to a beautiful woman.
    You hammer home your point, however ridiculous, until you are spent and exhausted.

    Thread over....winner.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,195

    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tory majority > 100.

    Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.

    He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
    You used the pub thing on a post in the last thread, commenting that Labour used to be the party of pint drinkers but is now the party of wine drinkers. It's common on here - most would rather have a pint with Boris rather than Keir.

    But I think, as a generalisation, that the 'bloke in the pub' thing is mildly sexist, not consciously so of course, and neglects the fact that half of the voters are female, and most of these don't want to be blokeish and drink pints down the pub. Indeed, many women drink wine down the pub.

    I expect now to be called 'woke' and that I'm the epitome of all that is wrong with the modern left and that's why we lost the red wall. But to me, women count (and vote).
    No, women like fine wine, Belgian chocolates, Hello magazine & the manly smell of a pipe!
    No surprise that you contribute to the stereotype. You should meet my wife - she doesn't quite fit it......
    Ah, she prefers Swiss chocolates?
    No, she's off chocolate completely at the moment. She does drink wine, and lager. She's very bright, very beautiful, and makes mincemeat out of patronising macho men, as it happens. But then I'm biased.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    Any chance HMG will bring back the Occasional Conformity Act, a back-to-basics Tory policy?

    Only substituting C&UP branch meetings for CoE Sunday services?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,022
    Brom said:

    Sounds like Chapman and Starmer already know their Batley candidate. Reports suggest it won’t be someone local. I agree with the Caroline Flint suggestion but I wonder if too many bridges were burned when she spoke out against The Peoples Vote and voted against the party whip in 2019.

    The Tory candidate will equally be interesting. I’m expecting a fresh face as they went backwards on votes and share in 2019. It’ll will be interesting to see who Boris has up his sleeve, but will assume there are plenty of leave supporting Yorkshiremen and women they can pick from.

    Labour have selected Dr Paul Williams.

    Only joking.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 28,980

    The next crisis for the Union will come when Holyrood approves a referendum bill and challenges Westminster to go to the Supreme Court to strike it down as illegal, which it would be.

    But the Johnson government need not fall into that trap.

    What if a private citizen took the Scottish Government to Scotland’s Court of Session, the highest court north of border, on the grounds that its referendum bill was illegal? Canny Unionists are thinking of a Scottish Gina Miller, the wealthy woman who used the English courts to cause the Brexiteers such pain.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9559933/ANDREW-NEIL-Nicola-Sturgeons-canny-switch-Arthur-Daley-proud.html

    The Sage of Paisley has definitely got his pudgy, wee finger on the constitutional pulse.

    https://twitter.com/PaddyBriggs/status/1391392516314968067?s=20
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 2,195
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Tory majority > 100.

    Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.

    He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
    You used the pub thing on a post in the last thread, commenting that Labour used to be the party of pint drinkers but is now the party of wine drinkers. It's common on here - most would rather have a pint with Boris rather than Keir.

    But I think, as a generalisation, that the 'bloke in the pub' thing is mildly sexist, not consciously so of course, and neglects the fact that half of the voters are female, and most of these don't want to be blokeish and drink pints down the pub. Indeed, many women drink wine down the pub.

    I expect now to be called 'woke' and that I'm the epitome of all that is wrong with the modern left and that's why we lost the red wall. But to me, women count (and vote).
    Few things here, I'd suggest you're being mildly sexist because women can and do drink beer. Nowhere in my posts did I mention gender, you inferred that. I specifically said "wine drinkers at dinner parties" rather than "beer drinkers at the pub" that's not a male/female split and again, I'd suggest you're the one stereotyping by suggesting one.

    Ultimately, this is Labour's problem in a nutshell. You're bringing gender into something that doesn't need it, women also to to pubs (as much as men, in my experience) and they enjoy a drink and a chat at the pub (again, as much as men in my experience). The "would I want to have a drink with this person test" isn't just something men think about, women have the same test as well and for someone who likes to throw the sexism accusation around I think maybe a look in the mirror is necessary.
    Methinks you doth protest too much. I wasn't just thinking of you, but you really can't deny that the 'pub test' is a blokeish one, that's just disingenuous. You wrote Those people who go to the local for a few jars after a day of work - you didn't specify men, good on you, and of course women drink beer at the pub. But most people would interpret a 'few jars after a day of work' to mean men - be honest. It's not a surprise on a site that is dominated by men, and of course I said I'd regret mentioning it, but there you go - as predicted, I was told to look in the mirror.
    Most people are wrong, then. The pub/drink test ultimately boils down to "would I want to meet this person socially" and "would they be good company". Again, if you're not just being obtuse and you really think this is a male exclusive test then maybe it's not me that's being sexist. You're trying to put words in my mouth that I didn't say based in your own sexist prejudices about women who apparently all drink wine and don't socialise with people at the pub.
    I don't want to pursue this, and I'm off to bed. But your last sentence is, precisely, putting words into my mouth that I never wrote.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 32,735
    dixiedean said:

    You know commenting on a niche politics website is very much like making love to a beautiful woman.
    You hammer home your point, however ridiculous, until you are spent and exhausted.

    Only to be asked, is that it ?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 13,804
    Nigelb said:

    dixiedean said:

    You know commenting on a niche politics website is very much like making love to a beautiful woman.
    You hammer home your point, however ridiculous, until you are spent and exhausted.

    Only to be asked, is that it ?
    Yes. Long after the recipient has lost interest.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,147
    "@MrHarryCole

    Despite attempting to can Angela Rayner, after a day of tense talks she emerged with the title: Deputy Leader, Shadow First Secretary of State, Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Shadow Secretary of State for the Future of Work.

    Her allies said the multiple jobs added up to a promotion, but Starmer's supporters rejected that as "spin."

    Anger after day of chaos triggered by early leaks overshadowed silver linings on Super Thursday pounding."

    https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1391532067993882625
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 9,755
    Boris and beer go together like red wine and sofas.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,007
    I'm sure I'm not the only one who thinks the odds on a Conservative majority are still far too skinny: I think the real chance is in the 65-75% range.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,007
    MaxPB said:

    Tory majority > 100.

    Honestly if Starmer is leader at the next election I think the Tories will increase their majority, not go go all Sion Simon.

    He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
    I disagree: I think the Conservatives have only modest opportunities to take further seats from Labour in the old "Red Wall", but are under threat 20-30 seats if tactical voting returns. My central prediction is that the Conservatives end up with a 35-50 seat majority next time around, off a broadly similar vote share as 2019.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 16,895
    MaxPB said:



    Few things here, I'd suggest you're being mildly sexist because women can and do drink beer. Nowhere in my posts did I mention gender, you inferred that. I specifically said "wine drinkers at dinner parties" rather than "beer drinkers at the pub" that's not a male/female split and again, I'd suggest you're the one stereotyping by suggesting one.

    Ultimately, this is Labour's problem in a nutshell. You're bringing gender into something that doesn't need it, women also to to pubs (as much as men, in my experience) and they enjoy a drink and a chat at the pub (again, as much as men in my experience). The "would I want to have a drink with this person test" isn't just something men think about, women have the same test as well and for someone who likes to throw the sexism accusation around I think maybe a look in the mirror is necessary.

    Without getting into that, note that seemingly only about half the population ever go to a pub, a wine bar or a club (https://www.statista.com/statistics/557584/going-to-pubs-bars-clubs-by-age-uk-england/ ). 29% go at least once a week, the others less often. On here one gets the impression that lots of people think everyone pops in several times a week. It's one of those things that depend on your social circle - I currently know quite a few people at work who go regularly; in my previous job for a similar charity, the number seemed to be zero. The difference was that that one was in London, where there are so many other options - here in Godalming, if you don't go to a puib and can't afford to go regularly to restaurants, you're pretty stuck.

    I'm not sure it's a key thing for political leaders, in fact. Looking at recent ones, which ones can you readily imagine in a pub out of choice?: Boris yes, May no, Cameron maybe, Brown no, Blair no, Major no (except after cricket), Thatcher?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,007
    isam said:

    I said to my girlfriend the other day that 7/4 on Con Maj was the best bet in the world and I should try and get 20k on it

    But I didn’t have a penny.

    A more popular leader, an 82 seat majority, leading in the polls at almost the half way stage... it is almost bomb proof

    It's far from bomb proof, as there's still three years until the next election, and there's no shortage of things that can go wrong. But it is excellent value.

    (Many of which, of course, have nothing do with the performance of the governing party. Remember pretty much every incumbent government got kicked out after the Global Financial Crisis, irrespective of whether they'd done a good or a bad job.)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,007

    MaxPB said:



    Few things here, I'd suggest you're being mildly sexist because women can and do drink beer. Nowhere in my posts did I mention gender, you inferred that. I specifically said "wine drinkers at dinner parties" rather than "beer drinkers at the pub" that's not a male/female split and again, I'd suggest you're the one stereotyping by suggesting one.

    Ultimately, this is Labour's problem in a nutshell. You're bringing gender into something that doesn't need it, women also to to pubs (as much as men, in my experience) and they enjoy a drink and a chat at the pub (again, as much as men in my experience). The "would I want to have a drink with this person test" isn't just something men think about, women have the same test as well and for someone who likes to throw the sexism accusation around I think maybe a look in the mirror is necessary.

    Without getting into that, note that seemingly only about half the population ever go to a pub, a wine bar or a club (https://www.statista.com/statistics/557584/going-to-pubs-bars-clubs-by-age-uk-england/ ). 29% go at least once a week, the others less often. On here one gets the impression that lots of people think everyone pops in several times a week. It's one of those things that depend on your social circle - I currently know quite a few people at work who go regularly; in my previous job for a similar charity, the number seemed to be zero. The difference was that that one was in London, where there are so many other options - here in Godalming, if you don't go to a puib and can't afford to go regularly to restaurants, you're pretty stuck.

    I'm not sure it's a key thing for political leaders, in fact. Looking at recent ones, which ones can you readily imagine in a pub out of choice?: Boris yes, May no, Cameron maybe, Brown no, Blair no, Major no (except after cricket), Thatcher?
    Cameron famously accidentally left a child at a pub, so I think he's a "yes".
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219

    MaxPB said:



    Few things here, I'd suggest you're being mildly sexist because women can and do drink beer. Nowhere in my posts did I mention gender, you inferred that. I specifically said "wine drinkers at dinner parties" rather than "beer drinkers at the pub" that's not a male/female split and again, I'd suggest you're the one stereotyping by suggesting one.

    Ultimately, this is Labour's problem in a nutshell. You're bringing gender into something that doesn't need it, women also to to pubs (as much as men, in my experience) and they enjoy a drink and a chat at the pub (again, as much as men in my experience). The "would I want to have a drink with this person test" isn't just something men think about, women have the same test as well and for someone who likes to throw the sexism accusation around I think maybe a look in the mirror is necessary.

    Without getting into that, note that seemingly only about half the population ever go to a pub, a wine bar or a club (https://www.statista.com/statistics/557584/going-to-pubs-bars-clubs-by-age-uk-england/ ). 29% go at least once a week, the others less often. On here one gets the impression that lots of people think everyone pops in several times a week. It's one of those things that depend on your social circle - I currently know quite a few people at work who go regularly; in my previous job for a similar charity, the number seemed to be zero. The difference was that that one was in London, where there are so many other options - here in Godalming, if you don't go to a puib and can't afford to go regularly to restaurants, you're pretty stuck.

    I'm not sure it's a key thing for political leaders, in fact. Looking at recent ones, which ones can you readily imagine in a pub out of choice?: Boris yes, May no, Cameron maybe, Brown no, Blair no, Major no (except after cricket), Thatcher?
    Re: Margaret Thatcher, would guess that she went occasionally, with Denis. For a bit of a breather but mostly to please and be with him.

    Reckon that he was a fairly regular at his local, though certainly NOT a bar fly or anything close. Just sociable within his circle. Which probably met in a pub (but NOT one with sawdust on the floor) or at the golf course club house.

    Personally am allergic to barrooms, and generally only drink beer when a restaurant, rarely wine or spirits anywhere. Have zero problemo with others doing as they wish - provided they do NOT puke on my shoes!
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:



    Few things here, I'd suggest you're being mildly sexist because women can and do drink beer. Nowhere in my posts did I mention gender, you inferred that. I specifically said "wine drinkers at dinner parties" rather than "beer drinkers at the pub" that's not a male/female split and again, I'd suggest you're the one stereotyping by suggesting one.

    Ultimately, this is Labour's problem in a nutshell. You're bringing gender into something that doesn't need it, women also to to pubs (as much as men, in my experience) and they enjoy a drink and a chat at the pub (again, as much as men in my experience). The "would I want to have a drink with this person test" isn't just something men think about, women have the same test as well and for someone who likes to throw the sexism accusation around I think maybe a look in the mirror is necessary.

    Without getting into that, note that seemingly only about half the population ever go to a pub, a wine bar or a club (https://www.statista.com/statistics/557584/going-to-pubs-bars-clubs-by-age-uk-england/ ). 29% go at least once a week, the others less often. On here one gets the impression that lots of people think everyone pops in several times a week. It's one of those things that depend on your social circle - I currently know quite a few people at work who go regularly; in my previous job for a similar charity, the number seemed to be zero. The difference was that that one was in London, where there are so many other options - here in Godalming, if you don't go to a puib and can't afford to go regularly to restaurants, you're pretty stuck.

    I'm not sure it's a key thing for political leaders, in fact. Looking at recent ones, which ones can you readily imagine in a pub out of choice?: Boris yes, May no, Cameron maybe, Brown no, Blair no, Major no (except after cricket), Thatcher?
    Cameron famously accidentally left a child at a pub, so I think he's a "yes".
    OR perhaps that proves he was distracted in an unfamiliar environment?

    Of course the kid must be just about old enough to lose herself in a pub!
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,318
    rcs1000 said:

    I'm sure I'm not the only one who thinks the odds on a Conservative majority are still far too skinny: I think the real chance is in the 65-75% range.

    Agreed, laying Lab is probably the more attractive side of the bet for me. Essentially risk free, although opportunity cost, and risk of substantial inflation eats into it a bit.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 5,219
    Actually, an Occasional Conformity Act sounds like it's right up Boris Johnson's alley.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 64,417
    More of Boris in his hi-viz jackets for the next few years....

    Boris Johnson eyes biggest overhaul of Britain's planning laws for 70 years in bid to ease system for new homes to be built

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9560481/Boris-Johnson-eyes-overhaul-Britains-planning-laws-new-homes-built.html
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 40,007

    More of Boris in his hi-viz jackets for the next few years....

    Boris Johnson eyes biggest overhaul of Britain's planning laws for 70 years in bid to ease system for new homes to be built

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9560481/Boris-Johnson-eyes-overhaul-Britains-planning-laws-new-homes-built.html

    Interesting.

    If he gets the balancing act right, getting people into their own homes earlier, while not destroying the savings of the oldies... then he'll deserve to win in 2024.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,022
    edited May 10
    Everything's going so well for Johnson at the moment, I can't help feeling something's going to come out of the woodwork to derail his premiership at some point over the next 12 to 18 months. It happened to Tony Blair when he looked utterly invincible, first with the fuel protests in the year 2000, and the with Iraq in 2003. You could also include being slow-handclapped by the Women's Institute around the same time. I remember what a shock that was, because it was the first time anything had remotely gone wrong for him since he became leader of the Labour Party in 1994, even though it was rather trivial in hindsight.
This discussion has been closed.