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For the first time since GE2019 a CON overall majority is now favourite next general election outcom
For the first time since GE2019 a CON overall majority is now favourite next general election outcome – politicalbetting.com
In many ways it is quite extraordinary that on no occasion until this weekend general election in December 2019 has a Conservatives majority being the betting favourite for what will happen next time. The betdata.io above shows how the mood on the betting markets has changed over the past year or so and now the money is going on the Tories doing it.
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Also, I am not convincesld the flat cap and whippet brigade are now Tory through and through...
Unless...
The biggest gainers would be the LDs who would be up 11 seats, mainly in southern Remain areas, Labour would be up just 3 seats and the SNP up 2
https://news.sky.com/story/election-results-tories-majority-would-be-cut-if-local-voting-was-translated-nationally-sky-news-analysis-12300569
Was this a unfortunate glitch? Well-deserved sanction? Work of the devil?
Nothing imperishable OR actionable. Just curious.
Only posts that I ever really wanted to save for posterity, got gobbled up - like everyone else from Classic PB - years ago.
All the high profile incumbents held or gained votes from Sturgeon to Drakeford to Khan to Johnson to Burnham.
Not saying Labour don't have issues, not by a long, long chalk but: would Attlee have won an election in January 1945?
The greater the degree of fragmentation on the Left, the better for the Tories. Absolutely true, but the Labour robot voter is, in large swathes of the land, a thing of the past.
Having broken the habit of several lifetimes, that constituency seems unlikely to go back in a hurry or without very good reason, and there's no Farageist movement for them to defect to anymore, either.
The Tories can't take their new coalition for granted, but one suspects that they aren't exactly itching for an excuse to go back to Labour, either.
> did you ever observe Angela Rayner hoggging a whole compartment?
> is is possible, that she saw you on a train, and lept to the (unwarranted obviously) conclusion you were a danger to her, yourself and/or others?
> did you ever share a boxcar with Boxcar Willie?
For example, in Wales looked like some recovering Kippers voted Green?
Boy did I have egg on MY face. And still do!
Though personally still think the feline better qualified, and NOT just for mayor.
I think the Conservatives made a net gain among the Hertfordshire councils.
Perhaps you should substitute Oxfordshire for Hertfordshire.
He's completey misdiagnosed the issue with their core voters and I don't think he can ever win their trust on brexit or cultural values and Red Wall voters are "values voters", they will vote primarily for leaders who align with their culture and who they think they can sit and have a drink with in the pub. Starmer can talk economy until he is out of air to breathe and he won't win them over. He was remianer and mischief maker in chief, everyone remembers that.
The major challenges that the country faces going forward may have less to do with business failures and unemployment, and more to do with healthcare backlogs and lost time in school.
I think he may well limp on for now but if Lab do badly in local elections 2022 then he may be pushed then (I know Lab aren't known for ousting leaders but this one time they may succeed)
Agree much can go wrong, but any Party with an 80 seat majority has to be heavy favourite whatever the circumstances.
OR is the local council still conducting diversity/gender/emotional/sensory/culinary-sensitivity workshops & trainings for its ballot-box runners & vote-counters?
Hertfordshire is not as posh as those counties, with the notable exception of St Albans and more like Kent and Essex with lots of white working class and lower middle class residents and the Tories made gains on the whole there
Though wonder why YOU too are underestimating your hero? Only 18 years?
AND do you have an actual privy? Or will you need to pop down to the pub?
London is still stuffed to the gills with people who vowed they'd leave if he ever became mayor...
Boris may continue to defy gravity and dodge the bullets. He's built to do that.
Equally, one of the bullets may eventually hit; there are an awful lot of bullets heading in his general direction.
What I do expect is that the end, when it comes, will be incredibly swift. The unknown is which side of the next election it comes.
Instead, he just let them hang around to annoy you!
Tonight
@Jacob_Rees_Mogg
tells
@BBCcarolynquinn
there will be legislation in Queens Speech to repeal Fixed Term Parliament Act. So
@BorisJohnson
would be able to call early general election..
So he needs to look like a winner, and be better than any alternative. If those conditions no longer apply, his tenure will be measured in days.
Party activists and MPs tend to want to win, but if they can't, they often think you might as well lose with the right policies.
Now, will they remember to bring back the Septennial act?
Maybe toppling Starmer will fix everything. But maybe it will make things worse. I'm reminded of all the coups in South Vietnam.
But I didn’t have a penny.
A more popular leader, an 82 seat majority, leading in the polls at almost the half way stage... it is almost bomb proof
And Election 2021 was like a line of twisters racing across Kansas. General threat, somewhat localized, but massive destruction where one touches down.
Just ask Dorothy. And Keir. Who is hoping the Wizard of OzMandy can get him back home?
The Eastern half of the county would've been part of the Kingdom of Essex, if you go back far enough. One is also half-tempted to invoke the Danelaw boundary at this point. And then there are the new towns, the bits in the South that are almost part of London (some of which was inherited from Middlesex) and some of the Remainian spirit exhibiting itself in the North as well, where I suspect we have a meaningful cohort of exiles priced out of Cambridge.
It's all quite complicated.
The Tory candidate will equally be interesting. I’m expecting a fresh face as they went backwards on votes and share in 2019. It’ll will be interesting to see who Boris has up his sleeve, but will assume there are plenty of leave supporting Yorkshiremen and women they can pick from.
Current Leader of the House IS noted for his progressivism.
Burnham makes me sick, but I suspect he might have a better chance that Starmer
It really has come to this - cos he's got a scouse accent, he'll do better than anyone who has a London constituency
We may as well just toss a coin or settle things by Twitter 'likes'
"I'm really pleased that, whatever outcome the next Prime Minister puts before us, whether that's a deal of some sort or no deal, we've agreed that it must be subject to another referendum, and in that referendum Remain must be an option, and Labour will be campaigning for Remain.
That's a really important point of principle" - Sir Keir Starmer 2019
Tyneside, W Yorks and N West moving at no greater speed than the national average.
But I think, as a generalisation, that the 'bloke in the pub' thing is mildly sexist, not consciously so of course, and neglects the fact that half of the voters are female, and most of these don't want to be blokeish and drink pints down the pub. Indeed, many women drink wine down the pub.
I expect now to be called 'woke' and that I'm the epitome of all that is wrong with the modern left and that's why we lost the red wall. But to me, women count (and vote).
It's always harder than it looks though. And right now it looks very hard.
"I can turn a Mayfair Duchess into a Middlesbrough Dental Hygienist!"
Ultimately, this is Labour's problem in a nutshell. You're bringing gender into something that doesn't need it, women also to to pubs (as much as men, in my experience) and they enjoy a drink and a chat at the pub (again, as much as men in my experience). The "would I want to have a drink with this person test" isn't just something men think about, women have the same test as well and for someone who likes to throw the sexism accusation around I think maybe a look in the mirror is necessary.
If you compare a map of pre-1914 Poland, partitioned between three Empires, and overlay it on a map of the 2019 Polish presidential election, the correlation is both obvious & striking.
I thought you sounded rather old fashioned to be honest, with the “women like wine” post. But never mind 😊
And anyway, my main point was that I think the 'Boris brand' is a harder sell with female voters, who may run out of patience first.
You hammer home your point, however ridiculous, until you are spent and exhausted.
But the Johnson government need not fall into that trap.
What if a private citizen took the Scottish Government to Scotland’s Court of Session, the highest court north of border, on the grounds that its referendum bill was illegal? Canny Unionists are thinking of a Scottish Gina Miller, the wealthy woman who used the English courts to cause the Brexiteers such pain.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/debate/article-9559933/ANDREW-NEIL-Nicola-Sturgeons-canny-switch-Arthur-Daley-proud.html
Only substituting C&UP branch meetings for CoE Sunday services?
Only joking.
https://twitter.com/PaddyBriggs/status/1391392516314968067?s=20
Despite attempting to can Angela Rayner, after a day of tense talks she emerged with the title: Deputy Leader, Shadow First Secretary of State, Shadow Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster and Shadow Secretary of State for the Future of Work.
Her allies said the multiple jobs added up to a promotion, but Starmer's supporters rejected that as "spin."
Anger after day of chaos triggered by early leaks overshadowed silver linings on Super Thursday pounding."
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1391532067993882625
I'm not sure it's a key thing for political leaders, in fact. Looking at recent ones, which ones can you readily imagine in a pub out of choice?: Boris yes, May no, Cameron maybe, Brown no, Blair no, Major no (except after cricket), Thatcher?
(Many of which, of course, have nothing do with the performance of the governing party. Remember pretty much every incumbent government got kicked out after the Global Financial Crisis, irrespective of whether they'd done a good or a bad job.)
Reckon that he was a fairly regular at his local, though certainly NOT a bar fly or anything close. Just sociable within his circle. Which probably met in a pub (but NOT one with sawdust on the floor) or at the golf course club house.
Personally am allergic to barrooms, and generally only drink beer when a restaurant, rarely wine or spirits anywhere. Have zero problemo with others doing as they wish - provided they do NOT puke on my shoes!
Of course the kid must be just about old enough to lose herself in a pub!
Boris Johnson eyes biggest overhaul of Britain's planning laws for 70 years in bid to ease system for new homes to be built
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9560481/Boris-Johnson-eyes-overhaul-Britains-planning-laws-new-homes-built.html
If he gets the balancing act right, getting people into their own homes earlier, while not destroying the savings of the oldies... then he'll deserve to win in 2024.