If the SNP fail to win an outright majority then Westminster have every right to ignore the latest clamour. The SNP will always ask for independence: it's why they exist. But they didn't win an outright majority for it.
The system is rigged so they cannot get a majority you dummy.
I can’t keep saying this enough. If SNP do this, the UK govt will have four weeks to decide whether the legislation goes beyond Scot govt competence. It it decides it does (which it would). It HAS to take it to Supreme Court. Can’t just ignore
Some signs of life in the South and Wales and even possibly in Scotland.
In my view they could tie the Tories in terms of polling if Starmer is prepared to go to war with the minority of the membership that are loonies
The sequencing of results has fixed the narrative, and that has made BoJo look good. Starmer still has a rotten choice to make- which bits of his ragbag coalition does he prune, and which does he allow to wither in order that other bits can grow?
If you go for the polar opposite to BoJo, I reckon you end up around about Ashdown/Kennedy Lib Dems, minus Euro enthusiasm. More stuff, but accepting you have to pay for it. Sense of place, but not as closed and snarly as the government enjoy being. Pragmatic on most things; on you-know-what, one step back from embracing it (Remember kids, a plurality of the population think it's a mistake, even now.)
Is that where the market is? Maybe. Is Starmer the leader to go there? Maybe not, but I don't see who is better and available. Will the Labour Party follow him there? You tell me.
If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months.
Brexit is not remotely "sorted".
The effects have been masked by Covid, but it will continue to fuck up our lives for years to come.
BoZo is still campaigning on it
Speaking in Hartlepool, Boris Johnson has said it was "thanks to Brexit" that the government was able to pursue freeports, its own vaccine policy, and to fight off the European Super League. As far as I know, none of those are true.
Shaun Bailey has won 5 of the 7 London areas to have declared so far — on first preferences. And Sadiq Khan only two. Khan holds a narrow lead overall though.
I'm utterly astonished at this.
In no way on God's green earth did I ever predict Shaun Bailey or the Conservatives having a good result in London. Never.
Lots of analysis to do afterwards, methinks.
Khan has been an underwhelming mayor. Turnout is down and a decent chunk of voters are giving their first preferences to no-hopers. If the Tories had taken the election seriously and put up a decent candidate they may well have had a shot.
An outside chance perhaps but London is now very progressive - a relatively young, sophisticated and educated populace is never going to vote Tory willingly.
I fear for the Tories in London.
Are Bexley and Bromley, Ealing and Hillingdon, Brent and Harrow, Havering and Redbridge and West Central not parts of London ?
Bexley, Bromley, Havering are not representative of what London is/(has) transforming(ed) to. These are the least multi-cultural parts of London.
The other boroughs you mentioned have returned poor results for Sadiq - however, the constituency vote was much stronger for Labour I believe. So, yes Sadiq is under-performing as expected.
Bailey will on 1st prefs take Barnet and Camden, Croydon and Sutton, South West. Khan has gone backwards THE MOST in North East. If Labour aren't going forward in London against one of the Tories' worst candidates in years then there's no realignment, there's just the Labour party losing it's old heartlands.
Let's see what the Assembly votes are before we start talking about Labour going backwards in London. As things stand, it looks like very little change to 2016.
Labour could well lose a seat to the Greens on the list vote, the Tories will pick up the two that went to UKIP and the LDs will probably stay on one seat.
Lab 11 Con 10 Green 3 LD 1
The assembly has no virtually no powers, they need a two-thirds majority to overturn the mayor and this never happens, the London assembly should be abolished.
If the SNP fail to win an outright majority then Westminster have every right to ignore the latest clamour. The SNP will always ask for independence: it's why they exist. But they didn't win an outright majority for it.
The system is rigged so they cannot get a majority you dummy.
I do think we spend a lot of time on here churning over things which we think are important but which are less so to the majority of people. Wallpaper being an example. Scottish independence is probably another. There's no strong appetite north of the border to break away.
In January, I wrote about an imaginary dystopic end to the vaccines programme: where Global Britain ends up as “fortress Britain” living in fear of variants.
Labour needs a listening exercise but from my experience of working class life I think the middle class left think it’s all food banks and poverty. That’s not the experience of most working class people. They own their houses and go on nice holidays. Lab doesn’t speak to them.
Thats,certainly true of Hartlepool. People seemed to think, even on here, it was all grinding poverty and 5K houses when there are nice parts of the seat like Dalton Percy and Hart. The real issue for me is not why these areas left labour but why they still were supporting them.
I've just looked at my birthplace town of Sunderland in detail. Sunderland central would go blue on thses results and even the other 2 seats would be much more marginal. The same process is happening - Newcastle is rapidly becoming the only really safe area in the NE - a phenomenal change over the past 10-15 years.
Would the Newcastle holdout be because of the large number of state employees there?
Shaun Bailey has won 5 of the 7 London areas to have declared so far — on first preferences. And Sadiq Khan only two. Khan holds a narrow lead overall though.
I'm utterly astonished at this.
In no way on God's green earth did I ever predict Shaun Bailey or the Conservatives having a good result in London. Never.
Lots of analysis to do afterwards, methinks.
Khan has been an underwhelming mayor. Turnout is down and a decent chunk of voters are giving their first preferences to no-hopers. If the Tories had taken the election seriously and put up a decent candidate they may well have had a shot.
tbf a lot of it is Londoners understanding the system, assuming Khan can't be beaten, and enjoying themselves with their first preferences. I expect we'll see this in the transfers.
It'll be easier for Johnson to refuse another referendum if the unionist parties have won an overall majority of votes, even if they haven't done so in terms of seats. At the moment they're on about 51.5% of the constituency vote.
I agree with David. Assuming that later today the SNP with or without their Green vassals will hold 65+ seats in the new Holyrood Parliament. That gives them a Mandate to ask for and receive IndyRef2.
We now have an entire generation of voters who were not alive when Scotland was ruled from London and almost a generation who have not known anything other than voting in Holyrood elections. By 2024 another generation of older voters who have spent the majority of their lives voting at Westminster will have died and that ignores those still alive who want independence.
Boris can either grasp this nettle and basically dictate the date of IndyRef2 and impose the wording of the question or delay things and increase the festering resentment of Westminster, England and the English in the minds of particularly younger Scottish voters. The Union has a chance of surviving for at least a generation if an early IndyRef2 takes place. If the party I have always supported, the Tory Party seeks to kick the problem of IndyRef2 into the long grass, there will be no UK in a decade and the level of animosity between a great many Scots and their English neighbours will have boiled over and led to an extremely messy divorce.
The SNP doesn't need to worry about the economic realities of independence. It will have done its job and can leave the mess to others.
I have been genuinely shocked at the number of people within my own family circle who are rabid Nationalists and who speak of Westminster and the Tory Government as if it is the enemy or an evil empire oppressing the downtrodden Scots. The shadow of William Wallace hangs over Scotland and it is not going anywhere anytime soon!
'they’d have wanted a triple mandate, with pro-independence majorities in MSPs, the list vote and the constituency vote'
In what universe was a pro-independence majority on the list vote a possibility?
Perhaps a world where, you know, a majority of Scottish voters were in favour of independence? (Or even holding a referendum). There would clearly be a stronger case for a second referendum if it was seen to be on the grounds of confirming majorities (in votes cast) already demonstrated at the ballot box.
This is perfectly consistent with what was said in the aftermath of the first ref defeat, where it was said that the conditions for a rerun would require a clear demonstration (whether through polling or the ballot box) that it was something that was wanted and likely to succeed on the basis of known public opinion at the time. ie. that there was already evidence that the voters were convinced, and the onus in any Indy ref 2 campaign would be for those opposed to shift votes away.
I would suggest that in the aftermath of the Brexit vote many in the SNP were hopeful that this would materialise, and were mentally aligning the pro-EU vote with the pro-Indy vote, but have been disappointed the way it has developed since, with the pro-Union vote holding reasonably firm. Even if other electoral systems have worked massively in favour of the largely single major pro Indy party versus the split opposition.
Saying that it wasn’t very likely (pro Indy - SNP/Alba/Green - in this election) does not mean that it can’t be said to be desirable - arguably necessary - to provide an overwhelming case to challenge Westminster.
Labour needs a listening exercise but from my experience of working class life I think the middle class left think it’s all food banks and poverty. That’s not the experience of most working class people. They own their houses and go on nice holidays. Lab doesn’t speak to them.
Thats,certainly true of Hartlepool. People seemed to think, even on here, it was all grinding poverty and 5K houses when there are nice parts of the seat like Dalton Percy and Hart. The real issue for me is not why these areas left labour but why they still were supporting them.
I've just looked at my birthplace town of Sunderland in detail. Sunderland central would go blue on thses results and even the other 2 seats would be much more marginal. The same process is happening - Newcastle is rapidly becoming the only really safe area in the NE - a phenomenal change over the past 10-15 years.
Would the Newcastle holdout be because of the large number of state employees there?
No, it is the age profile.
Smaller towns have been losing their young to the University cities for decades. One reason Labour is finding it hard to win in towns like Hartlepool is that the towns are ageing faster than the rest of the country. Retired folk turn out and vote Tory.
Starmer should apologise for opposing Brexit. As should all of us in Labour.
The problem with this, though, is that a lot of the country, areas where Labour needs votes too, isn't feeling apologetic, and they do have more alternatives than in Mandelson's day.
If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months. Covid inside another 15-18 months. First half a dozen chapters of the memoirs then.
Sometimes I suppose political figures really are defined by something very early in their leadership. Will Boris spend his time chasing a different but elusive legacy to the above two? Or is there something else waiting over the hills for him...
We can be sure that a big part of what he will be remembered for is the reason that eventually removes him from office. The poll tax, sleaze, financial crisis, Brexit, Brexit...for five of the last six. Only Blair has avoided being remembered for why he left office, and given what he is remembered for, that's little consolation.
If LAB had a leader 80% as good at comms as Blair + focused on ActualReality, they'd win next GE easy. They don't/won't, P(80%), so impossible now to be confident re what will happen, both parties cd easily be hated/held in contempt at same time"
Starmer should apologise for opposing Brexit. As should all of us in Labour.
They should have abstained and allowed Mrs May's deal to go through, they could have said 'it's their deal not ours' and 'we don't like it but the electorate voted leave and the voters are always right' The Tories would still be in power with a minority government and there would be a General Election in 2022.
If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months. Covid inside another 15-18 months. First half a dozen chapters of the memoirs then.
Sometimes I suppose political figures really are defined by something very early in their leadership. Will Boris spend his time chasing a different but elusive legacy to the above two? Or is there something else waiting over the hills for him...
Usually, he ends up chasing women.
Don’t rule out that being his downfall again...
Indeed. An ever present risk he faces is of a wronged Carrie Antoinette doing a Cummings
Great article David. I think the tone of any negotiation should be different though. We should stress that we would regret Scotland's departure, but, unlike the EU, we wouldn't want to punish them. We should stress we would follow normal practice and accept arbitration on things like national debt and coastal limits. The case for independence is so bad we don't need to strike an aggressive deal too. We can stress on things like rules that we'd be flexible if we could, but if Scotland joins EU this won't be possible and a hard border is inevitable. The key thing as you say is setting terms of the campaign. We need to prevent the abuses of the 2014 Scotland referendum and 2016 Brexit where Scottish and UK governments respectively used the official machinery and public funds to come up with partisan analysis. We should then focus on the positive case- and take fight to SNP by suggesting a review of if powers and scrutiny of Scottish parliament and role of lord advocate in the light of the salmond enquiries.
Shaun Bailey has won 5 of the 7 London areas to have declared so far — on first preferences. And Sadiq Khan only two. Khan holds a narrow lead overall though.
I'm utterly astonished at this.
In no way on God's green earth did I ever predict Shaun Bailey or the Conservatives having a good result in London. Never.
Lots of analysis to do afterwards, methinks.
Khan has been an underwhelming mayor. Turnout is down and a decent chunk of voters are giving their first preferences to no-hopers. If the Tories had taken the election seriously and put up a decent candidate they may well have had a shot.
An outside chance perhaps but London is now very progressive - a relatively young, sophisticated and educated populace is never going to vote Tory willingly.
I fear for the Tories in London.
Are Bexley and Bromley, Ealing and Hillingdon, Brent and Harrow, Havering and Redbridge and West Central not parts of London ?
Bexley, Bromley, Havering are not representative of what London is/(has) transforming(ed) to. These are the least multi-cultural parts of London.
The other boroughs you mentioned have returned poor results for Sadiq - however, the constituency vote was much stronger for Labour I believe. So, yes Sadiq is under-performing as expected.
Bailey will on 1st prefs take Barnet and Camden, Croydon and Sutton, South West. Khan has gone backwards THE MOST in North East. If Labour aren't going forward in London against one of the Tories' worst candidates in years then there's no realignment, there's just the Labour party losing it's old heartlands.
It could be that the nature of the Goldsmith campaign last time repulsed heavily ethnic North East London particularly, and this is a bounce back?
Labour needs a listening exercise but from my experience of working class life I think the middle class left think it’s all food banks and poverty. That’s not the experience of most working class people. They own their houses and go on nice holidays. Lab doesn’t speak to them.
Thats,certainly true of Hartlepool. People seemed to think, even on here, it was all grinding poverty and 5K houses when there are nice parts of the seat like Dalton Percy and Hart. The real issue for me is not why these areas left labour but why they still were supporting them.
I've just looked at my birthplace town of Sunderland in detail. Sunderland central would go blue on thses results and even the other 2 seats would be much more marginal. The same process is happening - Newcastle is rapidly becoming the only really safe area in the NE - a phenomenal change over the past 10-15 years.
Would the Newcastle holdout be because of the large number of state employees there?
Not sure - possibly and lots of students plus a bit more m/c. Plus tothe south especially a lot of the smaller towns are very traditional Labour which moved little in 2019.
Not sure the best policy for Starmer is to go round saying we’re crap !
Quite amazed that instead of accepting these are strange elections and the vaccine rollout is having a large effect Labour seem determined to tell everyone they’re useless .
If LAB had a leader 80% as good at comms as Blair + focused on ActualReality, they'd win next GE easy. They don't/won't, P(80%), so impossible now to be confident re what will happen, both parties cd easily be hated/held in contempt at same time"
Labour needs a listening exercise but from my experience of working class life I think the middle class left think it’s all food banks and poverty. That’s not the experience of most working class people. They own their houses and go on nice holidays. Lab doesn’t speak to them.
Thats,certainly true of Hartlepool. People seemed to think, even on here, it was all grinding poverty and 5K houses when there are nice parts of the seat like Dalton Percy and Hart. The real issue for me is not why these areas left labour but why they still were supporting them.
I've just looked at my birthplace town of Sunderland in detail. Sunderland central would go blue on thses results and even the other 2 seats would be much more marginal. The same process is happening - Newcastle is rapidly becoming the only really safe area in the NE - a phenomenal change over the past 10-15 years.
Would the Newcastle holdout be because of the large number of state employees there?
No, it is the age profile.
Smaller towns have been losing their young to the University cities for decades. One reason Labour is finding it hard to win in towns like Hartlepool is that the towns are ageing faster than the rest of the country. Retired folk turn out and vote Tory.
Surely we keep being told that as the current younger groups get older they will bring their Labour allegiances with them. Of course the fact that has never yet happened in real life..........
The government should quietly get ready for exactly the form of action DH suggests but wait, giving now only the tiniest outline indications of the 'Herdson Process' to come. This alone will reassure unionists on both sides of the border.
There is a time for 'first draft' advantage, but in this case I suggest it is only after waiting to see how serious the SNP is about all this. NS has been saying, I think, not before about 2023 for a referendum, and clearly wants a 'wait till after pandemic' reason for inaction now.
The SNP can't win a Ref2, but can cause a nuisance. It is likely that NS is in fact content with what she has, and knows it can only get worse. This is one of those cases, assuming that the vote split and polling split continues roughly 50/50, where there is a first move disadvantage.
It doesn't look like the SNP leadership agree with the header...
Nippy said it last night, and Swinney this morning. They will legislate for a vote (on their terms) and if it passes with Green votes the only way BoZo can stop it is in the High Court
Shaun Bailey has won 5 of the 7 London areas to have declared so far — on first preferences. And Sadiq Khan only two. Khan holds a narrow lead overall though.
I'm utterly astonished at this.
In no way on God's green earth did I ever predict Shaun Bailey or the Conservatives having a good result in London. Never.
Lots of analysis to do afterwards, methinks.
Khan has been an underwhelming mayor. Turnout is down and a decent chunk of voters are giving their first preferences to no-hopers. If the Tories had taken the election seriously and put up a decent candidate they may well have had a shot.
An outside chance perhaps but London is now very progressive - a relatively young, sophisticated and educated populace is never going to vote Tory willingly.
I fear for the Tories in London.
Are Bexley and Bromley, Ealing and Hillingdon, Brent and Harrow, Havering and Redbridge and West Central not parts of London ?
Bexley, Bromley, Havering are not representative of what London is/(has) transforming(ed) to. These are the least multi-cultural parts of London.
The other boroughs you mentioned have returned poor results for Sadiq - however, the constituency vote was much stronger for Labour I believe. So, yes Sadiq is under-performing as expected.
Bailey will on 1st prefs take Barnet and Camden, Croydon and Sutton, South West. Khan has gone backwards THE MOST in North East. If Labour aren't going forward in London against one of the Tories' worst candidates in years then there's no realignment, there's just the Labour party losing it's old heartlands.
It could be that the nature of the Goldsmith campaign last time repulsed heavily ethnic North East London particularly, and this is a bounce back?
Seems likely. Will the same be true in the CIty & East constituency?
If LAB had a leader 80% as good at comms as Blair + focused on ActualReality, they'd win next GE easy. They don't/won't, P(80%), so impossible now to be confident re what will happen, both parties cd easily be hated/held in contempt at same time"
Starmer should apologise for opposing Brexit. As should all of us in Labour.
Why?
It is a perfectly honourable, indeed a patriotic duty, to oppose things that you beleive are damaging for your country. If Brexiters now want to suggest that opposing their risky and difficult policies is some kind of thought crime, then I think that will ultimately destroy their policy, but quite possibly the country too.
Hubris comes before nemesis, or for those without the PMs interest in the classics, "Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall"
I presume cutting down the trees has had quite a political impact.
Not Leavers but Leafers?
I suppose theyr'e branching out and in the process trunKating Labour in another of their heartlands. I know I'm being a bit [a]corny here but Labour are losing the pop[u]lar vote!
I'm getting sick o' more tree puns....
You little beech.
Most politicians have a medlar tree (Mespilus germanica) planted in their gardens. And don't those politicians love meddling in our lives.
Not sure the best policy for Starmer is to go round saying we’re crap !
Quite amazed that instead of accepting these are strange elections and the vaccine rollout is having a large effect Labour seem determined to tell everyone they’re useless .
It seems too that the bad news for Labour was front loaded over a long results procession, making it look even worse.
Starmer always looks disappointed, it is part of the problem. I could forgive him being wooden if there was any real sign of vision and direction, but there isn't. Corbyn had many faults, but he had passion, and you know he believed in what he was saying.
Labour needs a listening exercise but from my experience of working class life I think the middle class left think it’s all food banks and poverty. That’s not the experience of most working class people. They own their houses and go on nice holidays. Lab doesn’t speak to them.
Thats,certainly true of Hartlepool. People seemed to think, even on here, it was all grinding poverty and 5K houses when there are nice parts of the seat like Dalton Percy and Hart. The real issue for me is not why these areas left labour but why they still were supporting them.
I've just looked at my birthplace town of Sunderland in detail. Sunderland central would go blue on thses results and even the other 2 seats would be much more marginal. The same process is happening - Newcastle is rapidly becoming the only really safe area in the NE - a phenomenal change over the past 10-15 years.
Yes, this is the Conservative side of any realignment going on; yet West Central in inner London is still held by the Tories and half of Sheffield is voting Green. It's just embarrassing from Labour tbh
Bailey’s performance in Ealing and Hillingdon was astonishing. It’s impossible to overstate just how poor a candidate he was, and yet he won on first preferences just because he ran under the Tory banner - in what is meant to be one of the new heartlands for Labour. This is potentially terminal. Now more than ever it’s time to wake up and smell the coffee.
Not sure the best policy for Starmer is to go round saying we’re crap !
Quite amazed that instead of accepting these are strange elections and the vaccine rollout is having a large effect Labour seem determined to tell everyone they’re useless .
The fact that this is mostly the vaccine rollout (cf. re-election of the SNP and Welsh Labour) isn't necessarily incompatible with UK Labour also being useless?
It'll be easier for Johnson to refuse another referendum if the unionist parties have won an overall majority of votes, even if they haven't done so in terms of seats. At the moment they're on about 51.5% of the constituency vote.
Labour needs a listening exercise but from my experience of working class life I think the middle class left think it’s all food banks and poverty. That’s not the experience of most working class people. They own their houses and go on nice holidays. Lab doesn’t speak to them.
Thats,certainly true of Hartlepool. People seemed to think, even on here, it was all grinding poverty and 5K houses when there are nice parts of the seat like Dalton Percy and Hart. The real issue for me is not why these areas left labour but why they still were supporting them.
I've just looked at my birthplace town of Sunderland in detail. Sunderland central would go blue on thses results and even the other 2 seats would be much more marginal. The same process is happening - Newcastle is rapidly becoming the only really safe area in the NE - a phenomenal change over the past 10-15 years.
Yes, this is the Conservative side of any realignment going on; yet West Central in inner London is still held by the Tories and half of Sheffield is voting Green. It's just embarrassing from Labour tbh
Bailey’s performance in Ealing and Hillingdon was astonishing. It’s impossible to overstate just how poor a candidate he was, and yet he won on first preferences just because he ran under the Tory banner - in what is meant to be one of the new heartlands for Labour. This is potentially terminal. Now more than ever it’s time to wake up and smell the coffee.
I don’t know the area v well, but is it an “anti-LTN” vote?
Not sure the best policy for Starmer is to go round saying we’re crap !
Quite amazed that instead of accepting these are strange elections and the vaccine rollout is having a large effect Labour seem determined to tell everyone they’re useless .
It seems too that the bad news for Labour was front loaded over a long results procession, making it look even worse.
Starmer always looks disappointed, it is part of the problem. I could forgive him being wooden if there was any real sign of vision and direction, but there isn't. Corbyn had many faults, but he had passion, and you know he believed in what he was saying.
He desperately needs some kind of operation for his “blocked nose”.
If LAB had a leader 80% as good at comms as Blair + focused on ActualReality, they'd win next GE easy. They don't/won't, P(80%), so impossible now to be confident re what will happen, both parties cd easily be hated/held in contempt at same time"
Labour needs a listening exercise but from my experience of working class life I think the middle class left think it’s all food banks and poverty. That’s not the experience of most working class people. They own their houses and go on nice holidays. Lab doesn’t speak to them.
Thats,certainly true of Hartlepool. People seemed to think, even on here, it was all grinding poverty and 5K houses when there are nice parts of the seat like Dalton Percy and Hart. The real issue for me is not why these areas left labour but why they still were supporting them.
I've just looked at my birthplace town of Sunderland in detail. Sunderland central would go blue on thses results and even the other 2 seats would be much more marginal. The same process is happening - Newcastle is rapidly becoming the only really safe area in the NE - a phenomenal change over the past 10-15 years.
Yes, this is the Conservative side of any realignment going on; yet West Central in inner London is still held by the Tories and half of Sheffield is voting Green. It's just embarrassing from Labour tbh
Bailey’s performance in Ealing and Hillingdon was astonishing. It’s impossible to overstate just how poor a candidate he was, and yet he won on first preferences just because he ran under the Tory banner - in what is meant to be one of the new heartlands for Labour. This is potentially terminal. Now more than ever it’s time to wake up and smell the coffee.
I don’t know the area v well, but is it an “anti-LTN” vote?
It’s been an issue, but fairly marginal I’d have thought.
If LAB had a leader 80% as good at comms as Blair + focused on ActualReality, they'd win next GE easy. They don't/won't, P(80%), so impossible now to be confident re what will happen, both parties cd easily be hated/held in contempt at same time"
The government should quietly get ready for exactly the form of action DH suggests but wait, giving now only the tiniest outline indications of the 'Herdson Process' to come. This alone will reassure unionists on both sides of the border.
There is a time for 'first draft' advantage, but in this case I suggest it is only after waiting to see how serious the SNP is about all this. NS has been saying, I think, not before about 2023 for a referendum, and clearly wants a 'wait till after pandemic' reason for inaction now.
The SNP can't win a Ref2, but can cause a nuisance. It is likely that NS is in fact content with what she has, and knows it can only get worse. This is one of those cases, assuming that the vote split and polling split continues roughly 50/50, where there is a first move disadvantage.
The other exception is whether the government has the skill (and shamelessness) to get away with David's proposition that "there shouldn't be a referendum until people know what they're voting for"....?
Do you have any analysis to go with that, Alistair? On outstanding constituencies and potential list effects? What's the max v mim 95% confidence range?
If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months. Covid inside another 15-18 months. First half a dozen chapters of the memoirs then.
Sometimes I suppose political figures really are defined by something very early in their leadership. Will Boris spend his time chasing a different but elusive legacy to the above two? Or is there something else waiting over the hills for him...
We can be sure that a big part of what he will be remembered for is the reason that eventually removes him from office. The poll tax, sleaze, financial crisis, Brexit, Brexit...for five of the last six. Only Blair has avoided being remembered for why he left office, and given what he is remembered for, that's little consolation.
Over-reaching and overwhelming hubris does indeed tend to precede a fall.
Headline 1 in the Mail : "Ministers say Boris could rule longer than Thatcher's 11 years - We're the true workers' party now !"
Headline 2 : "Boris Johnson and Carrie Symonds rent out their £1.2million south London townhouse to raise cash"
The problem with this theory is that Johnson doesn't control the narrative on the independence referendum any more than Cameron did on the Brexit one. In any case Johnson, massively unpopular in Scotland, is having to put the opposite to his Brexit argument.
The only reason to oppose a referendum is he is worried he will lose it and everyone knows that. That's his real issue.
Sadiq Khan's underperformance. I suggested on the last thread that the ballot paper was confusing. @Tres said that there were many spoiled ballots.
Courtesy of PB's punted candidate, Count Binface, here is a picture of the paper (assuming this works).
Note the rubric at the top refers to columns A and B, but that the candidates are split into two columns. Shaun Bailey is at the top of what might be column A, but isn't. Sadiq Khan part-way down the right-hand column, which might be B. Hold on, there's a big A at top-right for the Animal Welfare Party. It's a mess.
And despite the rubric saying to vote twice, there was an explanatory note that it was OK to vote only once (like the other two ballot papers Londoners received).
My guess is that some would-be Sadiq voters did not vote for him because he was harder to find and was in what might be mistaken for column B, or voted in a way that spoiled their ballot, perhaps by voting for four candidates: columns A and B on the left; then columns A and B on the right. Or took the left-hand lot to be the first choice candidates, and the right-hand ones to be the second choice candidates.
If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months. Covid inside another 15-18 months. First half a dozen chapters of the memoirs then.
Sometimes I suppose political figures really are defined by something very early in their leadership. Will Boris spend his time chasing a different but elusive legacy to the above two? Or is there something else waiting over the hills for him...
We can be sure that a big part of what he will be remembered for is the reason that eventually removes him from office. The poll tax, sleaze, financial crisis, Brexit, Brexit...for five of the last six. Only Blair has avoided being remembered for why he left office, and given what he is remembered for, that's little consolation.
If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months. Covid inside another 15-18 months. First half a dozen chapters of the memoirs then.
Sometimes I suppose political figures really are defined by something very early in their leadership. Will Boris spend his time chasing a different but elusive legacy to the above two? Or is there something else waiting over the hills for him...
We can be sure that a big part of what he will be remembered for is the reason that eventually removes him from office. The poll tax, sleaze, financial crisis, Brexit, Brexit...for five of the last six. Only Blair has avoided being remembered for why he left office, and given what he is remembered for, that's little consolation.
Over-reaching and overwhelming hubris does indeed tend to precede a fall.
Headline 1 in the Mail : "Ministers say Boris could rule longer than Thatcher's 11 years - We're the true workers' party now !"
Headline 2 : "Boris Johnson and Carrie Symonds rent out their £1.2million south London townhouse to raise cash"
If he’s short of money, why doesn’t he just sell it? £1.2 million should keep him going for a few years.
Labour needs a listening exercise but from my experience of working class life I think the middle class left think it’s all food banks and poverty. That’s not the experience of most working class people. They own their houses and go on nice holidays. Lab doesn’t speak to them.
Thats,certainly true of Hartlepool. People seemed to think, even on here, it was all grinding poverty and 5K houses when there are nice parts of the seat like Dalton Percy and Hart. The real issue for me is not why these areas left labour but why they still were supporting them.
I've just looked at my birthplace town of Sunderland in detail. Sunderland central would go blue on thses results and even the other 2 seats would be much more marginal. The same process is happening - Newcastle is rapidly becoming the only really safe area in the NE - a phenomenal change over the past 10-15 years.
Would the Newcastle holdout be because of the large number of state employees there?
No, it is the age profile.
Smaller towns have been losing their young to the University cities for decades. One reason Labour is finding it hard to win in towns like Hartlepool is that the towns are ageing faster than the rest of the country. Retired folk turn out and vote Tory.
Surely we keep being told that as the current younger groups get older they will bring their Labour allegiances with them. Of course the fact that has never yet happened in real life..........
No, I mean that the age demographics of the towns compared to university cities are increasingly divergent. The Centre for Towns has an interesting tool, which needs updating with this year's census data, but I doubt there has been any change to the long term trend. This article covers the issue well.
If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months. Covid inside another 15-18 months. First half a dozen chapters of the memoirs then.
Sometimes I suppose political figures really are defined by something very early in their leadership. Will Boris spend his time chasing a different but elusive legacy to the above two? Or is there something else waiting over the hills for him...
We can be sure that a big part of what he will be remembered for is the reason that eventually removes him from office. The poll tax, sleaze, financial crisis, Brexit, Brexit...for five of the last six. Only Blair has avoided being remembered for why he left office, and given what he is remembered for, that's little consolation.
If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months. Covid inside another 15-18 months. First half a dozen chapters of the memoirs then.
Sometimes I suppose political figures really are defined by something very early in their leadership. Will Boris spend his time chasing a different but elusive legacy to the above two? Or is there something else waiting over the hills for him...
We can be sure that a big part of what he will be remembered for is the reason that eventually removes him from office. The poll tax, sleaze, financial crisis, Brexit, Brexit...for five of the last six. Only Blair has avoided being remembered for why he left office, and given what he is remembered for, that's little consolation.
Over-reaching and overwhelming hubris does indeed tend to precede a fall.
Headline 1 in the Mail : "Ministers say Boris could rule longer than Thatcher's 11 years - We're the true workers' party now !"
Headline 2 : "Boris Johnson and Carrie Symonds rent out their £1.2million south London townhouse to raise cash"
If he’s short of money, why doesn’t he just sell it? £1.2 million should keep him going for a few years.
I’m a supporter of the Union. But I don’t see how you can look at today’s results in Scotland and today’s results in England and not acknowledge that an unbridgeable political and cultural gulf has formed."
If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months. Covid inside another 15-18 months. First half a dozen chapters of the memoirs then.
Sometimes I suppose political figures really are defined by something very early in their leadership. Will Boris spend his time chasing a different but elusive legacy to the above two? Or is there something else waiting over the hills for him...
We can be sure that a big part of what he will be remembered for is the reason that eventually removes him from office. The poll tax, sleaze, financial crisis, Brexit, Brexit...for five of the last six. Only Blair has avoided being remembered for why he left office, and given what he is remembered for, that's little consolation.
If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months. Covid inside another 15-18 months. First half a dozen chapters of the memoirs then.
Sometimes I suppose political figures really are defined by something very early in their leadership. Will Boris spend his time chasing a different but elusive legacy to the above two? Or is there something else waiting over the hills for him...
We can be sure that a big part of what he will be remembered for is the reason that eventually removes him from office. The poll tax, sleaze, financial crisis, Brexit, Brexit...for five of the last six. Only Blair has avoided being remembered for why he left office, and given what he is remembered for, that's little consolation.
Over-reaching and overwhelming hubris does indeed tend to precede a fall.
Headline 1 in the Mail : "Ministers say Boris could rule longer than Thatcher's 11 years - We're the true workers' party now !"
Headline 2 : "Boris Johnson and Carrie Symonds rent out their £1.2million south London townhouse to raise cash"
If he’s short of money, why doesn’t he just sell it? £1.2 million should keep him going for a few years.
The problem with this theory is that Johnson doesn't control the narrative on the independence referendum any more than Cameron did on the Brexit one. In any case Johnson, massively unpopular in Scotland, is having to put the opposite to his Brexit argument.
The only reason to oppose a referendum is he is worried he will lose it and everyone knows that. That's his real issue.
No problem for him to oppose Scotland going indepedent, I expect he has the 'other' article that he didn't use backing remain. Just change EU to Scotland and job done.
If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months. Covid inside another 15-18 months. First half a dozen chapters of the memoirs then.
Sometimes I suppose political figures really are defined by something very early in their leadership. Will Boris spend his time chasing a different but elusive legacy to the above two? Or is there something else waiting over the hills for him...
We can be sure that a big part of what he will be remembered for is the reason that eventually removes him from office. The poll tax, sleaze, financial crisis, Brexit, Brexit...for five of the last six. Only Blair has avoided being remembered for why he left office, and given what he is remembered for, that's little consolation.
If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months. Covid inside another 15-18 months. First half a dozen chapters of the memoirs then.
Sometimes I suppose political figures really are defined by something very early in their leadership. Will Boris spend his time chasing a different but elusive legacy to the above two? Or is there something else waiting over the hills for him...
We can be sure that a big part of what he will be remembered for is the reason that eventually removes him from office. The poll tax, sleaze, financial crisis, Brexit, Brexit...for five of the last six. Only Blair has avoided being remembered for why he left office, and given what he is remembered for, that's little consolation.
Over-reaching and overwhelming hubris does indeed tend to precede a fall.
Headline 1 in the Mail : "Ministers say Boris could rule longer than Thatcher's 11 years - We're the true workers' party now !"
Headline 2 : "Boris Johnson and Carrie Symonds rent out their £1.2million south London townhouse to raise cash"
If he’s short of money, why doesn’t he just sell it? £1.2 million should keep him going for a few years.
Isn't it Carrie's? And presumably has a mortgage.
Speaking as somebody who owns a second house, and lets it out, I think I would sell it if I needed money (although as it happens I don’t, which saves me agonising over what to do about the tenant if I sell up). Then clear the mortgage and invest/use the capital.
The real problem however with Johnson appears to be less that he needs money than that he needs to learn to live within his means.
Sadiq Khan's underperformance. I suggested on the last thread that the ballot paper was confusing. @Tres said that there were many spoiled ballots.
Courtesy of PB's punted candidate, Count Binface, here is a picture of the paper (assuming this works).
Note the rubric at the top refers to columns A and B, but that the candidates are split into two columns. Shaun Bailey is at the top of what might be column A, but isn't. Sadiq Khan part-way down the right-hand column, which might be B. Hold on, there's a big A at top-right for the Animal Welfare Party. It's a mess.
And despite the rubric saying to vote twice, there was an explanatory note that it was OK to vote only once (like the other two ballot papers Londoners received).
My guess is that some would-be Sadiq voters did not vote for him because he was harder to find and was in what might be mistaken for column B, or voted in a way that spoiled their ballot, perhaps by voting for four candidates: columns A and B on the left; then columns A and B on the right. Or took the left-hand lot to be the first choice candidates, and the right-hand ones to be the second choice candidates.
Interesting. We'll have to see whether spoilt papers are higher than usual.
Sadiq Khan's underperformance. I suggested on the last thread that the ballot paper was confusing. @Tres said that there were many spoiled ballots.
Courtesy of PB's punted candidate, Count Binface, here is a picture of the paper (assuming this works).
Note the rubric at the top refers to columns A and B, but that the candidates are split into two columns. Shaun Bailey is at the top of what might be column A, but isn't. Sadiq Khan part-way down the right-hand column, which might be B. Hold on, there's a big A at top-right for the Animal Welfare Party. It's a mess.
And despite the rubric saying to vote twice, there was an explanatory note that it was OK to vote only once (like the other two ballot papers Londoners received).
My guess is that some would-be Sadiq voters did not vote for him because he was harder to find and was in what might be mistaken for column B, or voted in a way that spoiled their ballot, perhaps by voting for four candidates: columns A and B on the left; then columns A and B on the right. Or took the left-hand lot to be the first choice candidates, and the right-hand ones to be the second choice candidates.
Sorry but if a voter is too thick to understand that voting paper, they should not have the vote. It’s not that hard.
If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months. Covid inside another 15-18 months. First half a dozen chapters of the memoirs then.
Sometimes I suppose political figures really are defined by something very early in their leadership. Will Boris spend his time chasing a different but elusive legacy to the above two? Or is there something else waiting over the hills for him...
We can be sure that a big part of what he will be remembered for is the reason that eventually removes him from office. The poll tax, sleaze, financial crisis, Brexit, Brexit...for five of the last six. Only Blair has avoided being remembered for why he left office, and given what he is remembered for, that's little consolation.
If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months. Covid inside another 15-18 months. First half a dozen chapters of the memoirs then.
Sometimes I suppose political figures really are defined by something very early in their leadership. Will Boris spend his time chasing a different but elusive legacy to the above two? Or is there something else waiting over the hills for him...
We can be sure that a big part of what he will be remembered for is the reason that eventually removes him from office. The poll tax, sleaze, financial crisis, Brexit, Brexit...for five of the last six. Only Blair has avoided being remembered for why he left office, and given what he is remembered for, that's little consolation.
Over-reaching and overwhelming hubris does indeed tend to precede a fall.
Headline 1 in the Mail : "Ministers say Boris could rule longer than Thatcher's 11 years - We're the true workers' party now !"
Headline 2 : "Boris Johnson and Carrie Symonds rent out their £1.2million south London townhouse to raise cash"
If he’s short of money, why doesn’t he just sell it? £1.2 million should keep him going for a few years.
He has a massive mortgage. Its not 1.2m cash
But if they sold it, they wouldn’t need to pay the mortgage.
I'm not seeing many good answers for how Labour need to do things differently. To be fair they are in the same situation as social democrat parties elsewhere that are up against populists. Do they say, we are more honest and more competent? Problem, people don't care about the first and don't believe the second. Do they try a me-too populism. In which case why not go for the real thing?
Sadiq Khan's underperformance. I suggested on the last thread that the ballot paper was confusing. @Tres said that there were many spoiled ballots.
Courtesy of PB's punted candidate, Count Binface, here is a picture of the paper (assuming this works).
Note the rubric at the top refers to columns A and B, but that the candidates are split into two columns. Shaun Bailey is at the top of what might be column A, but isn't. Sadiq Khan part-way down the right-hand column, which might be B. Hold on, there's a big A at top-right for the Animal Welfare Party. It's a mess.
And despite the rubric saying to vote twice, there was an explanatory note that it was OK to vote only once (like the other two ballot papers Londoners received).
My guess is that some would-be Sadiq voters did not vote for him because he was harder to find and was in what might be mistaken for column B, or voted in a way that spoiled their ballot, perhaps by voting for four candidates: columns A and B on the left; then columns A and B on the right. Or took the left-hand lot to be the first choice candidates, and the right-hand ones to be the second choice candidates.
Sorry but if a voter is too thick to understand that voting paper, they should not have the vote. It’s not that hard.
It isn’t well designed either though, is it? Unnecessarily so.
I would have gone for ‘box a’ and ‘box b’ to avoid possible confusion.
Starmer should apologise for opposing Brexit. As should all of us in Labour.
Why?
It is a perfectly honourable, indeed a patriotic duty, to oppose things that you beleive are damaging for your country. If Brexiters now want to suggest that opposing their risky and difficult policies is some kind of thought crime, then I think that will ultimately destroy their policy, but quite possibly the country too.
Hubris comes before nemesis, or for those without the PMs interest in the classics, "Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall"
And in crude political terms, it doesn't work.
In honour of the mention of Domski (does he ever regret his part in elevating BoJo to his current position?), let's think about the branches of future history.
In one branch, Brexit works. In that case, Johnson wins next time easily anyway. Starmer apologising won't help.
In the other, Brexit doesn't work. In that case, Starmer can say in 2024 "I warned against it, tried to stop this happening, here's how we fix it from here". Apologising now cuts that possibility off.
Now, notice I'm not assigning probabilities here (bad Stuart, you'll never get your superforecaster badge this way). But it's not necessary. And anyone who has been paying attention here knows what I think.
Now this sucks if you are a Labour MP in a Brexitty Red Wall seat. But in that case, you're kinda stuffed anyway, and SKS apologising won't change that.
Labour needs a listening exercise but from my experience of working class life I think the middle class left think it’s all food banks and poverty. That’s not the experience of most working class people. They own their houses and go on nice holidays. Lab doesn’t speak to them.
And Labour are telling them they can't go on holiday, and they must go vegan. Plus they're a bit thick and racist.
If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months. Covid inside another 15-18 months. First half a dozen chapters of the memoirs then.
Sometimes I suppose political figures really are defined by something very early in their leadership. Will Boris spend his time chasing a different but elusive legacy to the above two? Or is there something else waiting over the hills for him...
We can be sure that a big part of what he will be remembered for is the reason that eventually removes him from office. The poll tax, sleaze, financial crisis, Brexit, Brexit...for five of the last six. Only Blair has avoided being remembered for why he left office, and given what he is remembered for, that's little consolation.
If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months. Covid inside another 15-18 months. First half a dozen chapters of the memoirs then.
Sometimes I suppose political figures really are defined by something very early in their leadership. Will Boris spend his time chasing a different but elusive legacy to the above two? Or is there something else waiting over the hills for him...
We can be sure that a big part of what he will be remembered for is the reason that eventually removes him from office. The poll tax, sleaze, financial crisis, Brexit, Brexit...for five of the last six. Only Blair has avoided being remembered for why he left office, and given what he is remembered for, that's little consolation.
Over-reaching and overwhelming hubris does indeed tend to precede a fall.
Headline 1 in the Mail : "Ministers say Boris could rule longer than Thatcher's 11 years - We're the true workers' party now !"
Headline 2 : "Boris Johnson and Carrie Symonds rent out their £1.2million south London townhouse to raise cash"
If he’s short of money, why doesn’t he just sell it? £1.2 million should keep him going for a few years.
Isn't it Carrie's? And presumably has a mortgage.
Speaking as somebody who owns a second house, and lets it out, I think I would sell it if I needed money (although as it happens I don’t, which saves me agonising over what to do about the tenant if I sell up). Then clear the mortgage and invest/use the capital.
The real problem however with Johnson appears to be less that he needs money than that he needs to learn to live within his means.
Sadiq Khan's underperformance. I suggested on the last thread that the ballot paper was confusing. @Tres said that there were many spoiled ballots.
Courtesy of PB's punted candidate, Count Binface, here is a picture of the paper (assuming this works).
Note the rubric at the top refers to columns A and B, but that the candidates are split into two columns. Shaun Bailey is at the top of what might be column A, but isn't. Sadiq Khan part-way down the right-hand column, which might be B. Hold on, there's a big A at top-right for the Animal Welfare Party. It's a mess.
And despite the rubric saying to vote twice, there was an explanatory note that it was OK to vote only once (like the other two ballot papers Londoners received).
My guess is that some would-be Sadiq voters did not vote for him because he was harder to find and was in what might be mistaken for column B, or voted in a way that spoiled their ballot, perhaps by voting for four candidates: columns A and B on the left; then columns A and B on the right. Or took the left-hand lot to be the first choice candidates, and the right-hand ones to be the second choice candidates.
Sorry but if a voter is too thick to understand that voting paper, they should not have the vote. It’s not that hard.
It isn’t well designed either though, is it? Unnecessarily so.
I would have gone for ‘box a’ and ‘box b’ to avoid possible confusion.
It is a very poor design, but it’s clutching at straws to blame this for a perceived poor result for khan, and I stand by my comment. I voted in three different ballots on Thursday, each with different rules. I was advised what to do on receiving the three slips.
I'm not seeing many good answers for how Labour need to do things differently. To be fair they are in the same situation as social democrat parties elsewhere that are up against populists. Do they say, we are more honest and more competent? Problem, people don't care about the first and don't believe the second. Do they try a me-too populism. In which case why not go for the real thing?
Tricky.
Yes, it is an issue across the continent, and in the USA, where Biden is a relic of Social Democracy's heyday. FPTP fossilised the system and is a major bar to new parties becoming effective.
Sadiq Khan's underperformance. I suggested on the last thread that the ballot paper was confusing. @Tres said that there were many spoiled ballots.
Courtesy of PB's punted candidate, Count Binface, here is a picture of the paper (assuming this works).
Note the rubric at the top refers to columns A and B, but that the candidates are split into two columns. Shaun Bailey is at the top of what might be column A, but isn't. Sadiq Khan part-way down the right-hand column, which might be B. Hold on, there's a big A at top-right for the Animal Welfare Party. It's a mess.
And despite the rubric saying to vote twice, there was an explanatory note that it was OK to vote only once (like the other two ballot papers Londoners received).
My guess is that some would-be Sadiq voters did not vote for him because he was harder to find and was in what might be mistaken for column B, or voted in a way that spoiled their ballot, perhaps by voting for four candidates: columns A and B on the left; then columns A and B on the right. Or took the left-hand lot to be the first choice candidates, and the right-hand ones to be the second choice candidates.
Sorry but if a voter is too thick to understand that voting paper, they should not have the vote. It’s not that hard.
I think that's a bit hard. You're in the polling booth, not your normal habitat, first time you look at it is when you are about to vote and you think 'what the XXXX'. You're also conscious that you had to queue to get in and there are other people behind you muttering. It's not hard, but it's unnecessarily confusing. Who designed it?
If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months.
Brexit is not remotely "sorted".
The effects have been masked by Covid, but it will continue to fuck up our lives for years to come.
BoZo is still campaigning on it
Speaking in Hartlepool, Boris Johnson has said it was "thanks to Brexit" that the government was able to pursue freeports, its own vaccine policy, and to fight off the European Super League. As far as I know, none of those are true.
If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months. Covid inside another 15-18 months. First half a dozen chapters of the memoirs then.
Sometimes I suppose political figures really are defined by something very early in their leadership. Will Boris spend his time chasing a different but elusive legacy to the above two? Or is there something else waiting over the hills for him...
We can be sure that a big part of what he will be remembered for is the reason that eventually removes him from office. The poll tax, sleaze, financial crisis, Brexit, Brexit...for five of the last six. Only Blair has avoided being remembered for why he left office, and given what he is remembered for, that's little consolation.
If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months. Covid inside another 15-18 months. First half a dozen chapters of the memoirs then.
Sometimes I suppose political figures really are defined by something very early in their leadership. Will Boris spend his time chasing a different but elusive legacy to the above two? Or is there something else waiting over the hills for him...
We can be sure that a big part of what he will be remembered for is the reason that eventually removes him from office. The poll tax, sleaze, financial crisis, Brexit, Brexit...for five of the last six. Only Blair has avoided being remembered for why he left office, and given what he is remembered for, that's little consolation.
Over-reaching and overwhelming hubris does indeed tend to precede a fall.
Headline 1 in the Mail : "Ministers say Boris could rule longer than Thatcher's 11 years - We're the true workers' party now !"
Headline 2 : "Boris Johnson and Carrie Symonds rent out their £1.2million south London townhouse to raise cash"
If he’s short of money, why doesn’t he just sell it? £1.2 million should keep him going for a few years.
Isn't it Carrie's? And presumably has a mortgage.
Speaking as somebody who owns a second house, and lets it out, I think I would sell it if I needed money (although as it happens I don’t, which saves me agonising over what to do about the tenant if I sell up). Then clear the mortgage and invest/use the capital.
The real problem however with Johnson appears to be less that he needs money than that he needs to learn to live within his means.
His hero Churchill used to run up big debts.....
His hero Churchill lost an election to a boring lefty lawyer. Twice.
(Right now, it's hard to see. But it would be damn funny.)
Sadiq Khan's underperformance. I suggested on the last thread that the ballot paper was confusing. @Tres said that there were many spoiled ballots.
Courtesy of PB's punted candidate, Count Binface, here is a picture of the paper (assuming this works).
Note the rubric at the top refers to columns A and B, but that the candidates are split into two columns. Shaun Bailey is at the top of what might be column A, but isn't. Sadiq Khan part-way down the right-hand column, which might be B. Hold on, there's a big A at top-right for the Animal Welfare Party. It's a mess.
And despite the rubric saying to vote twice, there was an explanatory note that it was OK to vote only once (like the other two ballot papers Londoners received).
My guess is that some would-be Sadiq voters did not vote for him because he was harder to find and was in what might be mistaken for column B, or voted in a way that spoiled their ballot, perhaps by voting for four candidates: columns A and B on the left; then columns A and B on the right. Or took the left-hand lot to be the first choice candidates, and the right-hand ones to be the second choice candidates.
Sorry but if a voter is too thick to understand that voting paper, they should not have the vote. It’s not that hard.
i would say that if whoever is designing and signing off the paper is too thick to see this is pretty confusing (and slightly inaccurate in terms of narrative) then they should not be in the job. Dont these things get stress tested before beign signed off?
Sadiq Khan's underperformance. I suggested on the last thread that the ballot paper was confusing. @Tres said that there were many spoiled ballots.
Courtesy of PB's punted candidate, Count Binface, here is a picture of the paper (assuming this works).
Note the rubric at the top refers to columns A and B, but that the candidates are split into two columns. Shaun Bailey is at the top of what might be column A, but isn't. Sadiq Khan part-way down the right-hand column, which might be B. Hold on, there's a big A at top-right for the Animal Welfare Party. It's a mess.
And despite the rubric saying to vote twice, there was an explanatory note that it was OK to vote only once (like the other two ballot papers Londoners received).
My guess is that some would-be Sadiq voters did not vote for him because he was harder to find and was in what might be mistaken for column B, or voted in a way that spoiled their ballot, perhaps by voting for four candidates: columns A and B on the left; then columns A and B on the right. Or took the left-hand lot to be the first choice candidates, and the right-hand ones to be the second choice candidates.
Interesting. We'll have to see whether spoilt papers are higher than usual.
I agree with DJL. If I were Khan I wouldn't be happy with that. He will lose votes.
Also Bailey at top of the paper is a big plus for him.
I'm not seeing many good answers for how Labour need to do things differently. To be fair they are in the same situation as social democrat parties elsewhere that are up against populists. Do they say, we are more honest and more competent? Problem, people don't care about the first and don't believe the second. Do they try a me-too populism. In which case why not go for the real thing?
Tricky.
We have been here before though. Look at the 1980s, when the left the world over seemed in complete disarray as Communism imploded and was hurriedly abandoned by both the Soviets and China. There was serious talk in the mid-1980s that it was impossible for Labour to win another election because of the changes to the global economy. In Germany, Kohl held power for 16 years, which included the absorption of the DDR. In America, a new left wing Democratic Party won just one election between 1964 and 1992, and it needed a lot of help from the Republicans to do that. In France, Mitterrand May look like an exception, but he was frequently in coalition with the Gaullists and his tenure saw the collapse of the Communist party.
And yet the left came back. Since 1992 the Republicans have won the popular vote just once. Merkel has stayed in power by compromising with the SPD. Blair - well, enough said.
I don’t think we should write them off yet. Yes, the populist right is in ascendant almost everywhere at the moment, and not just in Europe - we could mention Bolsonaro, arguably Maduro, Duterte, Morrison, Modi, Xi, Khan, El Sisi, Netanyahu, Erdogan, Putin as well - but that may change. When they fail, people will look for alternatives, as they did before.
If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months. Covid inside another 15-18 months. First half a dozen chapters of the memoirs then.
Sometimes I suppose political figures really are defined by something very early in their leadership. Will Boris spend his time chasing a different but elusive legacy to the above two? Or is there something else waiting over the hills for him...
We can be sure that a big part of what he will be remembered for is the reason that eventually removes him from office. The poll tax, sleaze, financial crisis, Brexit, Brexit...for five of the last six. Only Blair has avoided being remembered for why he left office, and given what he is remembered for, that's little consolation.
If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months. Covid inside another 15-18 months. First half a dozen chapters of the memoirs then.
Sometimes I suppose political figures really are defined by something very early in their leadership. Will Boris spend his time chasing a different but elusive legacy to the above two? Or is there something else waiting over the hills for him...
We can be sure that a big part of what he will be remembered for is the reason that eventually removes him from office. The poll tax, sleaze, financial crisis, Brexit, Brexit...for five of the last six. Only Blair has avoided being remembered for why he left office, and given what he is remembered for, that's little consolation.
Over-reaching and overwhelming hubris does indeed tend to precede a fall.
Headline 1 in the Mail : "Ministers say Boris could rule longer than Thatcher's 11 years - We're the true workers' party now !"
Headline 2 : "Boris Johnson and Carrie Symonds rent out their £1.2million south London townhouse to raise cash"
If he’s short of money, why doesn’t he just sell it? £1.2 million should keep him going for a few years.
Reading between the lines, it’s mostly the bank’s house, rather than Johnson’s. And he’s struggling to make his repayments at the same time as keeping his girlfriend in the style she expects.
If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months.
Brexit is not remotely "sorted".
The effects have been masked by Covid, but it will continue to fuck up our lives for years to come.
BoZo is still campaigning on it
Speaking in Hartlepool, Boris Johnson has said it was "thanks to Brexit" that the government was able to pursue freeports, its own vaccine policy, and to fight off the European Super League. As far as I know, none of those are true.
Peter Walker 99 doesn’t know much about the world then does he
Peter Walker 99 is right of course.
But nobody seems to care; Boris is a compelling myth maker. In fact, if you actually voted for Brexit you’ll absolutely lap up the idea that you saved the Premiership etc.
If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months. Covid inside another 15-18 months. First half a dozen chapters of the memoirs then.
Sometimes I suppose political figures really are defined by something very early in their leadership. Will Boris spend his time chasing a different but elusive legacy to the above two? Or is there something else waiting over the hills for him...
We can be sure that a big part of what he will be remembered for is the reason that eventually removes him from office. The poll tax, sleaze, financial crisis, Brexit, Brexit...for five of the last six. Only Blair has avoided being remembered for why he left office, and given what he is remembered for, that's little consolation.
If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months. Covid inside another 15-18 months. First half a dozen chapters of the memoirs then.
Sometimes I suppose political figures really are defined by something very early in their leadership. Will Boris spend his time chasing a different but elusive legacy to the above two? Or is there something else waiting over the hills for him...
We can be sure that a big part of what he will be remembered for is the reason that eventually removes him from office. The poll tax, sleaze, financial crisis, Brexit, Brexit...for five of the last six. Only Blair has avoided being remembered for why he left office, and given what he is remembered for, that's little consolation.
Over-reaching and overwhelming hubris does indeed tend to precede a fall.
Headline 1 in the Mail : "Ministers say Boris could rule longer than Thatcher's 11 years - We're the true workers' party now !"
Headline 2 : "Boris Johnson and Carrie Symonds rent out their £1.2million south London townhouse to raise cash"
If he’s short of money, why doesn’t he just sell it? £1.2 million should keep him going for a few years.
Isn't it Carrie's? And presumably has a mortgage.
Speaking as somebody who owns a second house, and lets it out, I think I would sell it if I needed money (although as it happens I don’t, which saves me agonising over what to do about the tenant if I sell up). Then clear the mortgage and invest/use the capital.
The real problem however with Johnson appears to be less that he needs money than that he needs to learn to live within his means.
His hero Churchill used to run up big debts.....
His hero Churchill lost an election to a boring lefty lawyer. Twice.
(Right now, it's hard to see. But it would be damn funny.)
Indeed, Churchill only won one General Election, and didn't finish that term...
If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months. Covid inside another 15-18 months. First half a dozen chapters of the memoirs then.
Sometimes I suppose political figures really are defined by something very early in their leadership. Will Boris spend his time chasing a different but elusive legacy to the above two? Or is there something else waiting over the hills for him...
We can be sure that a big part of what he will be remembered for is the reason that eventually removes him from office. The poll tax, sleaze, financial crisis, Brexit, Brexit...for five of the last six. Only Blair has avoided being remembered for why he left office, and given what he is remembered for, that's little consolation.
If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months. Covid inside another 15-18 months. First half a dozen chapters of the memoirs then.
Sometimes I suppose political figures really are defined by something very early in their leadership. Will Boris spend his time chasing a different but elusive legacy to the above two? Or is there something else waiting over the hills for him...
We can be sure that a big part of what he will be remembered for is the reason that eventually removes him from office. The poll tax, sleaze, financial crisis, Brexit, Brexit...for five of the last six. Only Blair has avoided being remembered for why he left office, and given what he is remembered for, that's little consolation.
Over-reaching and overwhelming hubris does indeed tend to precede a fall.
Headline 1 in the Mail : "Ministers say Boris could rule longer than Thatcher's 11 years - We're the true workers' party now !"
Headline 2 : "Boris Johnson and Carrie Symonds rent out their £1.2million south London townhouse to raise cash"
If he’s short of money, why doesn’t he just sell it? £1.2 million should keep him going for a few years.
Reading between the lines, it’s mostly the bank’s house, rather than Johnson’s. And he’s struggling to make his repayments at the same time as keeping his girlfriend in the style she expects.
He won’t make much from letting it out, after he’s paid interest. London yields are shite, and it’s not in an ideal location for the corporate rentals market.
If LAB had a leader 80% as good at comms as Blair + focused on ActualReality, they'd win next GE easy. They don't/won't, P(80%), so impossible now to be confident re what will happen, both parties cd easily be hated/held in contempt at same time"
If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months. Covid inside another 15-18 months. First half a dozen chapters of the memoirs then.
Sometimes I suppose political figures really are defined by something very early in their leadership. Will Boris spend his time chasing a different but elusive legacy to the above two? Or is there something else waiting over the hills for him...
We can be sure that a big part of what he will be remembered for is the reason that eventually removes him from office. The poll tax, sleaze, financial crisis, Brexit, Brexit...for five of the last six. Only Blair has avoided being remembered for why he left office, and given what he is remembered for, that's little consolation.
If these tales are even halfway true, it’s interesting to speculate what history will remember Boris Johnson as being important for.
Brexit was all sorted inside his first 6 months. Covid inside another 15-18 months. First half a dozen chapters of the memoirs then.
Sometimes I suppose political figures really are defined by something very early in their leadership. Will Boris spend his time chasing a different but elusive legacy to the above two? Or is there something else waiting over the hills for him...
We can be sure that a big part of what he will be remembered for is the reason that eventually removes him from office. The poll tax, sleaze, financial crisis, Brexit, Brexit...for five of the last six. Only Blair has avoided being remembered for why he left office, and given what he is remembered for, that's little consolation.
Over-reaching and overwhelming hubris does indeed tend to precede a fall.
Headline 1 in the Mail : "Ministers say Boris could rule longer than Thatcher's 11 years - We're the true workers' party now !"
Headline 2 : "Boris Johnson and Carrie Symonds rent out their £1.2million south London townhouse to raise cash"
If he’s short of money, why doesn’t he just sell it? £1.2 million should keep him going for a few years.
Isn't it Carrie's? And presumably has a mortgage.
Speaking as somebody who owns a second house, and lets it out, I think I would sell it if I needed money (although as it happens I don’t, which saves me agonising over what to do about the tenant if I sell up). Then clear the mortgage and invest/use the capital.
The real problem however with Johnson appears to be less that he needs money than that he needs to learn to live within his means.
His hero Churchill used to run up big debts.....
His hero Churchill lost an election to a boring lefty lawyer. Twice.
(Right now, it's hard to see. But it would be damn funny.)
Since Heath, Tory leaders only get to lose one election.
I an surprised too. I wonder if it is the inshore fishermen getting upset at Brexit?
Another point - it must make Alistair Carmichael MP feel very uneasy about his seat, though he's an Orcadian and that part of his constituency held up quite well from his point of view.
Comments
More here https://news.sky.com/story/nicola-sturgeon-scotland-independence-referendum-would-be-legal-unless-court-blocks-it-12292827 https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1390920474478120961
https://twitter.com/paul_keller/status/1390025113232416772?s=19
Starmer still has a rotten choice to make- which bits of his ragbag coalition does he prune, and which does he allow to wither in order that other bits can grow?
If you go for the polar opposite to BoJo, I reckon you end up around about Ashdown/Kennedy Lib Dems, minus Euro enthusiasm. More stuff, but accepting you have to pay for it. Sense of place, but not as closed and snarly as the government enjoy being. Pragmatic on most things; on you-know-what, one step back from embracing it (Remember kids, a plurality of the population think it's a mistake, even now.)
Is that where the market is? Maybe.
Is Starmer the leader to go there? Maybe not, but I don't see who is better and available.
Will the Labour Party follow him there? You tell me.
The effects have been masked by Covid, but it will continue to fuck up our lives for years to come.
BoZo is still campaigning on it
Speaking in Hartlepool, Boris Johnson has said it was "thanks to Brexit" that the government was able to pursue freeports, its own vaccine policy, and to fight off the European Super League. As far as I know, none of those are true.
(quote from PA News wire) https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1390666920697925634/photo/1
Lab 11
Con 10
Green 3
LD 1
The assembly has no virtually no powers, they need a two-thirds majority to overturn the mayor and this never happens, the London assembly should be abolished.
Now the gvt is openly describing Britain as a “fortress” against Covid. My original column:-
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/01/21/vaccines-may-bring-freedom-athome-usher-fortress-britain/amp/
We now have an entire generation of voters who were not alive when Scotland was ruled from London and almost a generation who have not known anything other than voting in Holyrood elections. By 2024 another generation of older voters who have spent the majority of their lives voting at Westminster will have died and that ignores those still alive who want independence.
Boris can either grasp this nettle and basically dictate the date of IndyRef2 and impose the wording of the question or delay things and increase the festering resentment of Westminster, England and the English in the minds of particularly younger Scottish voters. The Union has a chance of surviving for at least a generation if an early IndyRef2 takes place. If the party I have always supported, the Tory Party seeks to kick the problem of IndyRef2 into the long grass, there will be no UK in a decade and the level of animosity between a great many Scots and their English neighbours will have boiled over and led to an extremely messy divorce.
The SNP doesn't need to worry about the economic realities of independence. It will have done its job and can leave the mess to others.
I have been genuinely shocked at the number of people within my own family circle who are rabid Nationalists and who speak of Westminster and the Tory Government as if it is the enemy or an evil empire oppressing the downtrodden Scots. The shadow of William Wallace hangs over Scotland and it is not going anywhere anytime soon!
This is perfectly consistent with what was said in the aftermath of the first ref defeat, where it was said that the conditions for a rerun would require a clear demonstration (whether through polling or the ballot box) that it was something that was wanted and likely to succeed on the basis of known public opinion at the time. ie. that there was already evidence that the voters were convinced, and the onus in any Indy ref 2 campaign would be for those opposed to shift votes away.
I would suggest that in the aftermath of the Brexit vote many in the SNP were hopeful that this would materialise, and were mentally aligning the pro-EU vote with the pro-Indy vote, but have been disappointed the way it has developed since, with the pro-Union vote holding reasonably firm. Even if other electoral systems have worked massively in favour of the largely single major pro Indy party versus the split opposition.
Saying that it wasn’t very likely (pro Indy - SNP/Alba/Green - in this election) does not mean that it can’t be said to be desirable - arguably necessary - to provide an overwhelming case to challenge Westminster.
Smaller towns have been losing their young to the University cities for decades. One reason Labour is finding it hard to win in towns like Hartlepool is that the towns are ageing faster than the rest of the country. Retired folk turn out and vote Tory.
@Dominic2306
If LAB had a leader 80% as good at comms as Blair + focused on ActualReality, they'd win next GE easy. They don't/won't, P(80%), so impossible now to be confident re what will happen, both parties cd easily be hated/held in contempt at same time"
https://twitter.com/Dominic2306/status/1390608783458635776
The Tories would still be in power with a minority government and there would be a General Election in 2022.
Quite amazed that instead of accepting these are strange elections and the vaccine rollout is having a large effect Labour seem determined to tell everyone they’re useless .
@londonelects
Good morning! Day 2 of the count is about to begin."
https://twitter.com/londonelects/status/1390923176293670914
The government should quietly get ready for exactly the form of action DH suggests but wait, giving now only the tiniest outline indications of the 'Herdson Process' to come. This alone will reassure unionists on both sides of the border.
There is a time for 'first draft' advantage, but in this case I suggest it is only after waiting to see how serious the SNP is about all this. NS has been saying, I think, not before about 2023 for a referendum, and clearly wants a 'wait till after pandemic' reason for inaction now.
The SNP can't win a Ref2, but can cause a nuisance. It is likely that NS is in fact content with what she has, and knows it can only get worse. This is one of those cases, assuming that the vote split and polling split continues roughly 50/50, where there is a first move disadvantage.
Nippy said it last night, and Swinney this morning. They will legislate for a vote (on their terms) and if it passes with Green votes the only way BoZo can stop it is in the High Court
Would be v funny.
It is a perfectly honourable, indeed a patriotic duty, to oppose things that you beleive are damaging for your country. If Brexiters now want to suggest that opposing their risky and difficult policies is some kind of thought crime, then I think that will ultimately destroy their policy, but quite possibly the country too.
Hubris comes before nemesis, or for those without the PMs interest in the classics, "Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall"
Starmer always looks disappointed, it is part of the problem. I could forgive him being wooden if there was any real sign of vision and direction, but there isn't. Corbyn had many faults, but he had passion, and you know he believed in what he was saying.
Where on Earth is the money going?
Boris's big mistake was to hang on to Cummings.
But I can’t help but admire his campaigning nous.
I'm still shy of backing it.
Over-reaching and overwhelming hubris does indeed tend to precede a fall.
Headline 1 in the Mail : "Ministers say Boris could rule longer than Thatcher's 11 years - We're the true workers' party now !"
Headline 2 : "Boris Johnson and Carrie Symonds rent out their £1.2million south London townhouse to raise cash"
The only reason to oppose a referendum is he is worried he will lose it and everyone knows that. That's his real issue.
Courtesy of PB's punted candidate, Count Binface, here is a picture of the paper (assuming this works).
Note the rubric at the top refers to columns A and B, but that the candidates are split into two columns. Shaun Bailey is at the top of what might be column A, but isn't. Sadiq Khan part-way down the right-hand column, which might be B. Hold on, there's a big A at top-right for the Animal Welfare Party. It's a mess.
And despite the rubric saying to vote twice, there was an explanatory note that it was OK to vote only once (like the other two ballot papers Londoners received).
My guess is that some would-be Sadiq voters did not vote for him because he was harder to find and was in what might be mistaken for column B, or voted in a way that spoiled their ballot, perhaps by voting for four candidates: columns A and B on the left; then columns A and B on the right. Or took the left-hand lot to be the first choice candidates, and the right-hand ones to be the second choice candidates.
https://jonn.substack.com/p/its-the-demographics-stupid
@DPJHodges
I’m a supporter of the Union. But I don’t see how you can look at today’s results in Scotland and today’s results in England and not acknowledge that an unbridgeable political and cultural gulf has formed."
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1390781380590768133
The real problem however with Johnson appears to be less that he needs money than that he needs to learn to live within his means.
Tricky.
It's an odd way of being arm-in-arm, too.
I would have gone for ‘box a’ and ‘box b’ to avoid possible confusion.
Where on Earth is the money going?
Have you seen the price of wallpaper?
In honour of the mention of Domski (does he ever regret his part in elevating BoJo to his current position?), let's think about the branches of future history.
In one branch, Brexit works. In that case, Johnson wins next time easily anyway. Starmer apologising won't help.
In the other, Brexit doesn't work. In that case, Starmer can say in 2024 "I warned against it, tried to stop this happening, here's how we fix it from here". Apologising now cuts that possibility off.
Now, notice I'm not assigning probabilities here (bad Stuart, you'll never get your superforecaster badge this way). But it's not necessary. And anyone who has been paying attention here knows what I think.
Now this sucks if you are a Labour MP in a Brexitty Red Wall seat. But in that case, you're kinda stuffed anyway, and SKS apologising won't change that.
Why would they vote Labour?
You're also conscious that you had to queue to get in and there are other people behind you muttering.
It's not hard, but it's unnecessarily confusing. Who designed it?
(Right now, it's hard to see. But it would be damn funny.)
Also Bailey at top of the paper is a big plus for him.
And yet the left came back. Since 1992 the Republicans have won the popular vote just once. Merkel has stayed in power by compromising with the SPD. Blair - well, enough said.
I don’t think we should write them off yet. Yes, the populist right is in ascendant almost everywhere at the moment, and not just in Europe - we could mention Bolsonaro, arguably Maduro, Duterte, Morrison, Modi, Xi, Khan, El Sisi, Netanyahu, Erdogan, Putin as well - but that may change. When they fail, people will look for alternatives, as they did before.
But nobody seems to care; Boris is a compelling myth maker. In fact, if you actually voted for Brexit you’ll absolutely lap up the idea that you saved the Premiership etc.
https://twitter.com/joshken01/status/1390787445097123844?s=21
Any insight?
I an surprised too. I wonder if it is the inshore fishermen getting upset at Brexit?
Another point - it must make Alistair Carmichael MP feel very uneasy about his seat, though he's an Orcadian and that part of his constituency held up quite well from his point of view.