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A big polling night sees setbacks for the Tories and Johnson – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,651
edited May 2021 in General
A big polling night sees setbacks for the Tories and Johnson – politicalbetting.com

Johnson's net approval lead over Starmer from tonight's Opinium by region pic.twitter.com/OdqI0JPI6M

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  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,301
    One
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,130
    edited May 2021
    Second like Labour.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,301
    tlg86 said:

    First

    Soz!
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 4,134
    Podium placing?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    @BluestBlue is usually such a diligent commentator on the polls. Hope he's OK.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    edited May 2021
    How far ahead was Ed Miliband as this point in the 2010-2015 Parliament? ;)
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,470
    edited May 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    @BluestBlue is usually such a diligent commentator on the polls. Hope he's OK.

    @MarqueeMark is also silent.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Anyone have a reasonably fact-based guestimate, as what percent of the expected vote has already been returned via postal ballots, in any of the various jurisdictions?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,130
    GIN1138 said:

    How far ahead was Ed Miliband as this point in the 2010-2015 Parliament? ;)

    And how far ahead was Theresa May?

    I know there are local elections next week, and this site is concerned with politics, but I think these polls are next to useless.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leon said:

    The awfulness of the "little bastard" accusation is that it attaches an instant shame to an innocent baby who, in every sense, had no say in the circumstances of his or her birth

    It is therefore akin to racism, or as bad as Critical Race Theory. It says you MUST be forever ashamed of yourself, because of your inferior birth, and that is that

    It is vile. Happily almost no-one apart from Justin feels this way, AFAIK. I have not heard these sentiments in decades

    Wait until you hear about what some in the Catholic Church say about babies and kids who are not baptised.
    They have no moral high horse to get on anyway - one of the chapters in my book on Popes talks about the 'Pornocracy', when St Peter's was turned into a literal whorehouse.

    But that's what happens when the bastard teenage son of the previous pope is made Pontiff.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Midlands the last holdout, quelle surprise.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    IshmaelZ said:

    @BluestBlue is usually such a diligent commentator on the polls. Hope he's OK.

    Indeed, I want to see his take on this supplementary.

    According to the poll, conducted by Focaldata, 47% think the PM should resign if he is found to have broken electoral law; 36% said he should not resign.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    kle4 said:

    Midlands the last holdout, quelle surprise.

    Brummies eh?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,119
    Gardenwalker said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    @BluestBlue is usually such a diligent commentator on the polls. Hope he's OK.

    @MarqueeMark is also silent.
    No he isn't nor was he. He has recently posted about doorstep feedback.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,591
    Gardenwalker said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    @BluestBlue is usually such a diligent commentator on the polls. Hope he's OK.

    @MarqueeMark is also silent.
    I am not and it does appear to have cut through

    Some of the comments and allegations on here this evening, if proven, must see his resignation and sometime in 2021 seems possible

    I have no idea how this comes through on Thursday, but tonight Boris is not in the position most everyone expected before wallpapergate

    Interesting times
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,819
    Gan on in here like?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,896
    Don’t panic, but..

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1388590332695257090?s=21
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    So will Moshiri sack the Italian Marco Silva once they fail to qualify for Europe?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,151
    edited May 2021
    FPT
    justin124 said:

    DavidL said:

    Well, putting aside the credibility of that information for a moment, if that was not the case they would have no chance would they? PVs tend to be older people who are disproportionately Conservative voters. They will be ahead right now. The question is whether they are ahead enough.

    I suspect that view is rather out of date. Back in the days when voters had to qualify for postal votes via a doctor's signature or on occupational grounds , the Tories usually did outperform in this group. However, since the use of a PV became simply a personal option requiring no qualification, party advantage has tended to be largely determined by levels of local party activism. In Hartlepool , I see no reason why that should favour the Tories - though the seat is not the Labour citadel which many seem to assume.
    justin124 said:

    Carries is not his wife - despite having had a little bastard with him.

    justin124 said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    You are a nasty bigot that shames this forum

    My views on this were mainstream several decades into your lifetime.
    I found the words in bold amusing at the time. More so after the last thread.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Daveyboy1961 said:

    Have I jiust gone back in time to Victorian times?

    Yes. It's time to paint Africa glorious Imperial Pink, so get a move on.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,301
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    @BluestBlue is usually such a diligent commentator on the polls. Hope he's OK.

    Indeed, I want to see his take on this supplementary.

    According to the poll, conducted by Focaldata, 47% think the PM should resign if he is found to have broken electoral law; 36% said he should not resign.
    I still read that as 'Fuck-all data'. And still find it funny.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,734
    Broken, sleazy Tories on the slide!
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,667
    Election Maps is flatulating hyperbolically

    "Hard to stress how MASSIVE the implications are"

    !!!!

    Wait, this is a bunch of local elections, and a by election in an Opposition seat, in some obscure little hamlet in the desolate north, basically Tundra Central. They probably eat lichen up there.

    AND this is during a plague which dwarfs the US presidential elections, let alone Welsh county councillors, FFS

    No one cares. This will be forgotten about in a week, whatever happens

    The only potentially big election is in Scotland, but these polls are irrelevant to that, and, besides, the only main reason they might be big Over Hadrians is if Nicola wins an incredibly big majority (thus potentially stoking her demand for indyref2) or if she fails to win a majority by quite a margin (thus threatening her position as leader)

    Both of these are unlikely. These polls are not dramatic or even especially interesting
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 7,119
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Don’t panic, but..

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1388590332695257090?s=21

    Why should anyone panic. Few give a shit about Scots Independence because it isn't going to happen anytime soon. Its a bit like Labour believing they xcan win outright at the next G E.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,730
    Leon said:

    Election Maps is flatulating hyperbolically

    "Hard to stress how MASSIVE the implications are"

    !!!!

    Wait, this is a bunch of local elections, and a by election in an Opposition seat, in some obscure little hamlet in the desolate north, basically Tundra Central. They probably eat lichen up there.

    AND this is during a plague which dwarfs the US presidential elections, let alone Welsh county councillors, FFS

    No one cares. This will be forgotten about in a week, whatever happens

    The only potentially big election is in Scotland, but these polls are irrelevant to that, and, besides, the only main reason they might be big Over Hadrians is if Nicola wins an incredibly big majority (thus potentially stoking her demand for indyref2) or if she fails to win a majority by quite a margin (thus threatening her position as leader)

    Both of these are unlikely. These polls are not dramatic or even especially interesting

    A lot of Tory councillors might care.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,712
    Enjoy it LAB fans. Three years to go 👍👍👍
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,573
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Broken, sleazy Tories on the slide!

    on the take more like.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    @BluestBlue is usually such a diligent commentator on the polls. Hope he's OK.

    Indeed, I want to see his take on this supplementary.

    According to the poll, conducted by Focaldata, 47% think the PM should resign if he is found to have broken electoral law; 36% said he should not resign.
    I still read that as 'Fuck-all data'. And still find it funny.
    I had an Italian colleague whose pronunciation of 'factor' broke me.

    15 years on, I still find it funny.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,591
    edited May 2021
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    @BluestBlue is usually such a diligent commentator on the polls. Hope he's OK.

    Indeed, I want to see his take on this supplementary.

    According to the poll, conducted by Focaldata, 47% think the PM should resign if he is found to have broken electoral law; 36% said he should not resign.
    You can maybe explain this poll as it was said the Conservative lead with this polling company had been reduced but these figures show an improvement

    Also, on all four competences he is well in front of Starmer

    I am not suggesting Boris is not suffering a wallpapergate effect but this particular poll is not consistent with the narrative

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1388553502541111304?s=19
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,760
    tlg86 said:

    Second like Labour.

    ...for the moment.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,573
    TELEGRAPH: Billions for Scots as PM bids to save Union #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1388595773026324483/photo/1
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,760
    londonpubman said:

    Enjoy it LAB fans. Three years to go 👍👍👍

    Up until tonight, I had it down as at least 8 more years to go.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    @BluestBlue is usually such a diligent commentator on the polls. Hope he's OK.

    Indeed, I want to see his take on this supplementary.

    According to the poll, conducted by Focaldata, 47% think the PM should resign if he is found to have broken electoral law; 36% said he should not resign.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    @BluestBlue is usually such a diligent commentator on the polls. Hope he's OK.

    Indeed, I want to see his take on this supplementary.

    According to the poll, conducted by Focaldata, 47% think the PM should resign if he is found to have broken electoral law; 36% said he should not resign.
    You can maybe explain this poll as it was said the Conservative lead with this polling company had been reduced bit these figures show an improvement

    Also, on all four competences he is well in front of Starmer

    I am not suggesting Boris is suffering a wallpapergate effect but this particular poll is not consistent with the narrative

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1388553502541111304?s=19
    It isn't comparing like with like.

    The December figure is from a 20,000 plus sample size MRP whilst this is a voting intention poll.

    Pollsters have said comparing the two figures can be comparing apples to oranges.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,524
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So will Moshiri sack the Italian Marco Silva once they fail to qualify for Europe?

    Nah. We're still only 2 points behind youse lot.
    Despite the huge handicap of losing almost every home game against the teams below us.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,667
    rottenborough said:

    TELEGRAPH: Billions for Scots as PM bids to save Union #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1388595773026324483/photo/1

    The English will buy off the Scots as the Canadians bought off the Quebecois
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,896
    squareroot2 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Don’t panic, but..

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1388590332695257090?s=21

    Why should anyone panic. Few give a shit about Scots Independence because it isn't going to happen anytime soon. Its a bit like Labour believing they xcan win outright at the next G E.
    And yet BJ’s mouthpiece thinks he’s panicking.

    'Fears SNP could launch independence bid immediately
    Several Cabinet ministers and senior figures close to Mr Johnson this weekend privately expressed their grave fears at the prospect of a big win for Ms Sturgeon who – Downing Street sources fear – could try to order a new independence referendum as soon as the result is announced.

    A senior source said that the result was likely to be "bloody awful" in Scotland.

    One minister said that the SNP were viewing Thursday’s vote as “a referendum on a referendum. There is no room for complacency. We are in a bare knuckle fight.”

    Another Cabinet minister privately advocated voting for other unionist parties than the Conservatives to see off the SNP threat. They said people should "vote for parties that will save the Union and avoid Scotland going into the chaos of economic uncertainty at a time when we have to build back better under Covid".'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/05/01/billions-scots-boris-johnson-plans-spending-spree-save-union/?utm_content=telegraph&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1619899315
  • UncleBulgariaUncleBulgaria Posts: 20
    So was the timeline:
    28th February AZ secretly exports 300,000 vaccine doses from the UK to Australia.
    4th March Italy blocks 250,000 doses from being exported to Australia.
    ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    dixiedean said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So will Moshiri sack the Italian Marco Silva once they fail to qualify for Europe?

    Nah. We're still only 2 points behind youse lot.
    Despite the huge handicap of losing almost every home game against the teams below us.
    That's not a handicap, that's being shit.

    A handicap is when your three first choice centre backs are ruled out with season ending injuries in October, November, and January.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,730
    Two car collision in Ryde; man in hospital
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,591
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    @BluestBlue is usually such a diligent commentator on the polls. Hope he's OK.

    Indeed, I want to see his take on this supplementary.

    According to the poll, conducted by Focaldata, 47% think the PM should resign if he is found to have broken electoral law; 36% said he should not resign.
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    @BluestBlue is usually such a diligent commentator on the polls. Hope he's OK.

    Indeed, I want to see his take on this supplementary.

    According to the poll, conducted by Focaldata, 47% think the PM should resign if he is found to have broken electoral law; 36% said he should not resign.
    You can maybe explain this poll as it was said the Conservative lead with this polling company had been reduced bit these figures show an improvement

    Also, on all four competences he is well in front of Starmer

    I am not suggesting Boris is suffering a wallpapergate effect but this particular poll is not consistent with the narrative

    https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1388553502541111304?s=19
    It isn't comparing like with like.

    The December figure is from a 20,000 plus sample size MRP whilst this is a voting intention poll.

    Pollsters have said comparing the two figures can be comparing apples to oranges.
    All very confusing but thank you
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,120
    rottenborough said:

    TELEGRAPH: Billions for Scots as PM bids to save Union #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1388595773026324483/photo/1

    It’s pretty clear to all Johnson is not the PM to “save the union”

    To be fair - maybe this wallpaper stuff will help him realise that quickly..
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,667
    edited May 2021
    Theuniondivvie said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Don’t panic, but..

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1388590332695257090?s=21

    Why should anyone panic. Few give a shit about Scots Independence because it isn't going to happen anytime soon. Its a bit like Labour believing they xcan win outright at the next G E.
    And yet BJ’s mouthpiece thinks he’s panicking.

    'Fears SNP could launch independence bid immediately
    Several Cabinet ministers and senior figures close to Mr Johnson this weekend privately expressed their grave fears at the prospect of a big win for Ms Sturgeon who – Downing Street sources fear – could try to order a new independence referendum as soon as the result is announced.

    A senior source said that the result was likely to be "bloody awful" in Scotland.

    One minister said that the SNP were viewing Thursday’s vote as “a referendum on a referendum. There is no room for complacency. We are in a bare knuckle fight.”

    Another Cabinet minister privately advocated voting for other unionist parties than the Conservatives to see off the SNP threat. They said people should "vote for parties that will save the Union and avoid Scotland going into the chaos of economic uncertainty at a time when we have to build back better under Covid".'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/05/01/billions-scots-boris-johnson-plans-spending-spree-save-union/?utm_content=telegraph&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1619899315
    It may be true, but this is, of course, exactly the message any UK Tory leader would pump out, just before a Holyrood election, to scare Scots into voting anti-SNP (and hopefully for the Tories).

    Put the fear of God-and-Alba in them. "The UK is almost defenceless against the mighty Nicola, save your country on Thursday!!!!!" etc etc
  • pingping Posts: 3,805
    rottenborough said:

    TELEGRAPH: Billions for Scots as PM bids to save Union #TomorrowsPapersToday

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1388595773026324483/photo/1

    Grr.

    The Scots would be silly not to vote SNP.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,524
    Theuniondivvie said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Don’t panic, but..

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1388590332695257090?s=21

    Why should anyone panic. Few give a shit about Scots Independence because it isn't going to happen anytime soon. Its a bit like Labour believing they xcan win outright at the next G E.
    And yet BJ’s mouthpiece thinks he’s panicking.

    'Fears SNP could launch independence bid immediately
    Several Cabinet ministers and senior figures close to Mr Johnson this weekend privately expressed their grave fears at the prospect of a big win for Ms Sturgeon who – Downing Street sources fear – could try to order a new independence referendum as soon as the result is announced.

    A senior source said that the result was likely to be "bloody awful" in Scotland.

    One minister said that the SNP were viewing Thursday’s vote as “a referendum on a referendum. There is no room for complacency. We are in a bare knuckle fight.”

    Another Cabinet minister privately advocated voting for other unionist parties than the Conservatives to see off the SNP threat. They said people should "vote for parties that will save the Union and avoid Scotland going into the chaos of economic uncertainty at a time when we have to build back better under Covid".'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/05/01/billions-scots-boris-johnson-plans-spending-spree-save-union/?utm_content=telegraph&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1619899315
    Surely the "Minister for the Union" ought to have been aware of this and all over it much earlier?
    I think the PM should sack him.
    Hang on though.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    It’s been 10 years since this guy incidentally live tweeted the Osama Bin Laden assassination.

    https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1388598594584907776
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 44,896
    In a nutshell

    https://twitter.com/Coldwar_Steve/status/1388598952954638340?s=20
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,524
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    dixiedean said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So will Moshiri sack the Italian Marco Silva once they fail to qualify for Europe?

    Nah. We're still only 2 points behind youse lot.
    Despite the huge handicap of losing almost every home game against the teams below us.
    That's not a handicap, that's being shit.

    A handicap is when your three first choice centre backs are ruled out with season ending injuries in October, November, and January.
    That's not having any depth. In this we are much alike.
    Ironically centre back is the only position we could lose our first choice three without noticing much.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Few threads ago, PBers held impromptu inquest re: the impact of the British transfer of Heligoland to Germany upon naval warfare during WW1.

    Moving on to WW2, (in a sense) my sense is that the C&UPS Boris is still the mightiest battleship in the Tory fleet, having recently routed the opposition by sinking their own prized if highly over-rated vessel, the LABS Jezzbolah.

    Though sustaining some damage in its last encounter with the Labour flotilla, the Tory flagship is still cruising at speed, but now in the direction of a safe home port.

    However, while Boris has suffered no obvious damage below the waterline, the good ship is experience serious bilge-pumping difficulties that threaten to sully the clear blue water.

    And in the sky, a brave if scrawny and slow-moving Stringbags is flying over choppy seas and overcast skies, desperately seeking to locate the enemy. Whether or not this plucky band will succeed in scoring many or any significant hits upon the Tory battlewagon remains to be seen.

    OF course, the icy waters of the North Atlantic are NOT the only front in this struggle. Indeed, the Red Horde is currently in a hostile posture toward one of it's key potential allies against the Blue Meanies, in a remote yet nonetheless critical battle field. Not to mention sideshows on the periphery of the globe, far far to the west of the Shepard's Bush roundabout.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,933
    Theuniondivvie said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Don’t panic, but..

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1388590332695257090?s=21

    Why should anyone panic. Few give a shit about Scots Independence because it isn't going to happen anytime soon. Its a bit like Labour believing they xcan win outright at the next G E.
    And yet BJ’s mouthpiece thinks he’s panicking.

    'Fears SNP could launch independence bid immediately
    Several Cabinet ministers and senior figures close to Mr Johnson this weekend privately expressed their grave fears at the prospect of a big win for Ms Sturgeon who – Downing Street sources fear – could try to order a new independence referendum as soon as the result is announced.

    A senior source said that the result was likely to be "bloody awful" in Scotland.

    One minister said that the SNP were viewing Thursday’s vote as “a referendum on a referendum. There is no room for complacency. We are in a bare knuckle fight.”

    Another Cabinet minister privately advocated voting for other unionist parties than the Conservatives to see off the SNP threat. They said people should "vote for parties that will save the Union and avoid Scotland going into the chaos of economic uncertainty at a time when we have to build back better under Covid".'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/05/01/billions-scots-boris-johnson-plans-spending-spree-save-union/?utm_content=telegraph&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1619899315
    It does not matter because what ever happens on Thursday the UK government will refuse a legal indyref2 and as Union matters are reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998 there is nothing the Natonalists can do about it.

    The sooner they stop whinging and get on with running Scottish domestic policy the better, there will only be a chance of a meaningful indyref2 even being considered if Starmer becomes PM in 2024 reliant on SNP confidence and supply
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,667
    IanB2 said:

    Two car collision in Ryde; man in hospital

    скрытный русский агент снова с нами
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Theuniondivvie said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Don’t panic, but..

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1388590332695257090?s=21

    Why should anyone panic. Few give a shit about Scots Independence because it isn't going to happen anytime soon. Its a bit like Labour believing they xcan win outright at the next G E.
    And yet BJ’s mouthpiece thinks he’s panicking.

    'Fears SNP could launch independence bid immediately
    Several Cabinet ministers and senior figures close to Mr Johnson this weekend privately expressed their grave fears at the prospect of a big win for Ms Sturgeon who – Downing Street sources fear – could try to order a new independence referendum as soon as the result is announced.

    A senior source said that the result was likely to be "bloody awful" in Scotland.

    One minister said that the SNP were viewing Thursday’s vote as “a referendum on a referendum. There is no room for complacency. We are in a bare knuckle fight.”

    Another Cabinet minister privately advocated voting for other unionist parties than the Conservatives to see off the SNP threat. They said people should "vote for parties that will save the Union and avoid Scotland going into the chaos of economic uncertainty at a time when we have to build back better under Covid".'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/05/01/billions-scots-boris-johnson-plans-spending-spree-save-union/?utm_content=telegraph&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1619899315
    He should save our money - Nicola is running away from a new referendum now
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,337
    I think we should calm down. If in reality Tories are 42 and Lab 36 (which I think is about right) the polls with normal variation will normally register between Tories 39 and 45, Labour 33 and 39. Tories 45 and Labour 33 is a 12 point gap, Tories 39 and Labour 39 is exactly 12 points different, ie zero. These normal variations look much more startling than they are. Occasional outliers will be outside this but obvious because they are rare and different.

    (Not one of the 10 polls listed in the article has a the 6 point gap I think is the case. But the average is 5.9)

    All the polls for weeks have been within these parameters, and as always any little shift in the trend can only be confirmed by waiting for the next one, which is why poll watching is such fun and never ends.

    Hartlepool on these trends will stay Labour unless the Brexit gang turn up for the Tories. I suspect they will go shopping for gold plated wallpaper instead.

    As for local elections and so on, well I am off to vote Labour, something I have not done in a GE for ages, and no plans to start.
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,470
    Leon said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Don’t panic, but..

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1388590332695257090?s=21

    Why should anyone panic. Few give a shit about Scots Independence because it isn't going to happen anytime soon. Its a bit like Labour believing they xcan win outright at the next G E.
    And yet BJ’s mouthpiece thinks he’s panicking.

    'Fears SNP could launch independence bid immediately
    Several Cabinet ministers and senior figures close to Mr Johnson this weekend privately expressed their grave fears at the prospect of a big win for Ms Sturgeon who – Downing Street sources fear – could try to order a new independence referendum as soon as the result is announced.

    A senior source said that the result was likely to be "bloody awful" in Scotland.

    One minister said that the SNP were viewing Thursday’s vote as “a referendum on a referendum. There is no room for complacency. We are in a bare knuckle fight.”

    Another Cabinet minister privately advocated voting for other unionist parties than the Conservatives to see off the SNP threat. They said people should "vote for parties that will save the Union and avoid Scotland going into the chaos of economic uncertainty at a time when we have to build back better under Covid".'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/05/01/billions-scots-boris-johnson-plans-spending-spree-save-union/?utm_content=telegraph&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1619899315
    It may be true, but this is, of course, exactly the message any UK Tory leader would pump out, just before a Holyrood election, to scare Scots into voting anti-SNP (and hopefully for the Tories).

    Put the fear of God-and-Alba in them. "The UK is almost defenceless against the mighty Nicola, save your country on Thursday!! " etc etc
    But does anyone in Scotland read the Telegraph?
    Is this going to change a single vote?

    As a canny Scot I might even be minded to vote SNP to screw even more out of the Tory twats in Westminster.
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,120
    Also - I bet you that BMG Scotland poll shows the SNP majority is basically knife edge as we had thought it was going to be.

    Didn’t the last BMG have yes leading?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    Right, I must abed, but to keep you all excited, tomorrow afternoon's thread is about AV and electoral reform.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    SandyRentool said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    @BluestBlue is usually such a diligent commentator on the polls. Hope he's OK.

    Indeed, I want to see his take on this supplementary.

    According to the poll, conducted by Focaldata, 47% think the PM should resign if he is found to have broken electoral law; 36% said he should not resign.
    I still read that as 'Fuck-all data'. And still find it funny.
    Is that akin to the Naked News? IF so, a positive step toward encouraging statistical literacy!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,933
    edited May 2021
    Good polls tonight for Labour with the Tory lead cut to 1% with Survation and focaldata and 5% with Opinium.

    However it should be remembered Ed Miliband won his first local elections in 2011 by 2% over the Tories, even Kinnock was only 1% behind Thatcher's Tories in his first locals in 1984. Labour led the 2016 locals by 1% in Corbyn's first electoral test, despite his abysmal local result the following year, so even if Starmer is 1% behind on Thursday it would only be par for the course for a Labour opposition leader.

    Still miles behind Blair who won his first local elections by a huge 22% margin over Major's Tories in 1995
  • LeonLeon Posts: 64,667
    Gardenwalker said:

    Leon said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Don’t panic, but..

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1388590332695257090?s=21

    Why should anyone panic. Few give a shit about Scots Independence because it isn't going to happen anytime soon. Its a bit like Labour believing they xcan win outright at the next G E.
    And yet BJ’s mouthpiece thinks he’s panicking.

    'Fears SNP could launch independence bid immediately
    Several Cabinet ministers and senior figures close to Mr Johnson this weekend privately expressed their grave fears at the prospect of a big win for Ms Sturgeon who – Downing Street sources fear – could try to order a new independence referendum as soon as the result is announced.

    A senior source said that the result was likely to be "bloody awful" in Scotland.

    One minister said that the SNP were viewing Thursday’s vote as “a referendum on a referendum. There is no room for complacency. We are in a bare knuckle fight.”

    Another Cabinet minister privately advocated voting for other unionist parties than the Conservatives to see off the SNP threat. They said people should "vote for parties that will save the Union and avoid Scotland going into the chaos of economic uncertainty at a time when we have to build back better under Covid".'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/05/01/billions-scots-boris-johnson-plans-spending-spree-save-union/?utm_content=telegraph&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1619899315
    It may be true, but this is, of course, exactly the message any UK Tory leader would pump out, just before a Holyrood election, to scare Scots into voting anti-SNP (and hopefully for the Tories).

    Put the fear of God-and-Alba in them. "The UK is almost defenceless against the mighty Nicola, save your country on Thursday!! " etc etc
    But does anyone in Scotland read the Telegraph?
    Is this going to change a single vote?

    As a canny Scot I might even be minded to vote SNP to screw even more out of the Tory twats in Westminster.
    Theuniondivvie of that ilk is cutting and pasting, so it might get traction in the glens


    I reckon both are true, The UKG is now focussing on the need to fend off indyref2 bids, and how that will be done, facing another SNP govt (having been distracted for a year or more by Covid)

    Meanwhile they see also some benefit in exaggerating the threat, so as to energise anti-Nat voters
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,316
    I am not at all surprised by the closing of the poll gap. Some solid tories (myself included) are not impressed by the events of this week.

    I shudder when I think of what Mrs May did in March and April 2019 which shafted the chances of hundreds of good councillor candidates. I hope Boris' personal life hasn't repeated the error.

    Time for the backbenches to start having some influence, in my opinion. If he isn't up to the job, time to find a replacement. If he is, he will recognise that it is time for a reshuffle and some proper Conservative policies. Shelving this obsession with Green nonsense would be a good start.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,933
    HYUFD said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Don’t panic, but..

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1388590332695257090?s=21

    Why should anyone panic. Few give a shit about Scots Independence because it isn't going to happen anytime soon. Its a bit like Labour believing they xcan win outright at the next G E.
    And yet BJ’s mouthpiece thinks he’s panicking.

    'Fears SNP could launch independence bid immediately
    Several Cabinet ministers and senior figures close to Mr Johnson this weekend privately expressed their grave fears at the prospect of a big win for Ms Sturgeon who – Downing Street sources fear – could try to order a new independence referendum as soon as the result is announced.

    A senior source said that the result was likely to be "bloody awful" in Scotland.

    One minister said that the SNP were viewing Thursday’s vote as “a referendum on a referendum. There is no room for complacency. We are in a bare knuckle fight.”

    Another Cabinet minister privately advocated voting for other unionist parties than the Conservatives to see off the SNP threat. They said people should "vote for parties that will save the Union and avoid Scotland going into the chaos of economic uncertainty at a time when we have to build back better under Covid".'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/05/01/billions-scots-boris-johnson-plans-spending-spree-save-union/?utm_content=telegraph&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1619899315
    It does not matter because what ever happens on Thursday the UK government will refuse a legal indyref2 and as Union matters are reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998 there is nothing the Natonalists can do about it.

    The sooner they stop whinging and get on with running Scottish domestic policy the better, there will only be a chance of a meaningful indyref2 even being considered if Starmer becomes PM in 2024 reliant on SNP confidence and supply
    Plus some current polls have the SNP actually losing seats anyway
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,819
    Mortimer said:

    I am not at all surprised by the closing of the poll gap. Some solid tories (myself included) are not impressed by the events of this week.

    I shudder when I think of what Mrs May did in March and April 2019 which shafted the chances of hundreds of good councillor candidates. I hope Boris' personal life hasn't repeated the error.

    Time for the backbenches to start having some influence, in my opinion. If he isn't up to the job, time to find a replacement. If he is, he will recognise that it is time for a reshuffle and some proper Conservative policies. Shelving this obsession with Green nonsense would be a good start.

    What “Green nonsense” are you referring to?

    Surely conserving the earth is the most conservative policy possible?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,933
    Razedabode said:

    Also - I bet you that BMG Scotland poll shows the SNP majority is basically knife edge as we had thought it was going to be.

    Didn’t the last BMG have yes leading?

    Indeed, tonight's poll has No and Yes each on 50%, still miles behind the near 60% Yes was on last year
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited May 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    @BluestBlue is usually such a diligent commentator on the polls. Hope he's OK.

    Lol @IshmaelZ - your concern is much appreciated. I'll just point out, as before, that knee-jerkers on PB have predicted at least 24 of the last 0 political endgames for Boris Johnson. Once the media shitstorm subsides, his polling will improve, as it did after the Supreme Court 'crisis', after he 'died in a ditch', after Phonegate (which caused the final YouGov MRP to predict a majority of only 28), after Cummingsgate Mark 1, and after the series of tiers and lockdowns in winter, when it seemed there was little hope of us getting out of the pandemic at all.

    Care to declare on the record that this is the moment that his luck finally runs out forever? Somehow, I don't think you will.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 15,337
    Floater said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Don’t panic, but..

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1388590332695257090?s=21

    Why should anyone panic. Few give a shit about Scots Independence because it isn't going to happen anytime soon. Its a bit like Labour believing they xcan win outright at the next G E.
    And yet BJ’s mouthpiece thinks he’s panicking.

    'Fears SNP could launch independence bid immediately
    Several Cabinet ministers and senior figures close to Mr Johnson this weekend privately expressed their grave fears at the prospect of a big win for Ms Sturgeon who – Downing Street sources fear – could try to order a new independence referendum as soon as the result is announced.

    A senior source said that the result was likely to be "bloody awful" in Scotland.

    One minister said that the SNP were viewing Thursday’s vote as “a referendum on a referendum. There is no room for complacency. We are in a bare knuckle fight.”

    Another Cabinet minister privately advocated voting for other unionist parties than the Conservatives to see off the SNP threat. They said people should "vote for parties that will save the Union and avoid Scotland going into the chaos of economic uncertainty at a time when we have to build back better under Covid".'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/05/01/billions-scots-boris-johnson-plans-spending-spree-save-union/?utm_content=telegraph&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1619899315
    He should save our money - Nicola is running away from a new referendum now
    Logic suggests that it would be axiomatic that Boris and Nicola could not possibly want a referendum at the same time, but there could be lots of times when one or other might want one. This gives Boris a huge advantage - like tennis if you could be server in every game.

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,819
    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    Also - I bet you that BMG Scotland poll shows the SNP majority is basically knife edge as we had thought it was going to be.

    Didn’t the last BMG have yes leading?

    Indeed, tonight's poll has No and Yes each on 50%, still miles behind the near 60% Yes was on last year
    You sound a bit rattled
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,712
    Hard left wetting themselves on here. Most too young to remember LAB being a credible government.

    Remember 1986 LAB miles clear in local elections, took til 1997 to win GE.

    LAB enjoy your win next week, not coming at any GE soon.

    👍👍
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,854
    Leon said:

    IanB2 said:

    Two car collision in Ryde; man in hospital

    скрытный русский агент снова с нами
    Иди и порежь несколько камней
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    Also - I bet you that BMG Scotland poll shows the SNP majority is basically knife edge as we had thought it was going to be.

    Didn’t the last BMG have yes leading?

    Indeed, tonight's poll has No and Yes each on 50%, still miles behind the near 60% Yes was on last year
    You sound a bit rattled
    How do we invade when our carriers are off to the far east?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,819
    londonpubman said:

    Hard left wetting themselves on here. Most too young to remember LAB being a credible government.

    Remember 1986 LAB miles clear in local elections, took til 1997 to win GE.

    LAB enjoy your win next week, not coming at any GE soon.

    👍👍

    “Hard left”

    “Wetting themselves”

    Quite.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,179
    GIN1138 said:

    How far ahead was Ed Miliband as this point in the 2010-2015 Parliament? ;)

    Either side of 10% ahead.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election_(2010–2012)#2012

    The PB leads from May 2012 bring back some memories of the EICIPM era:

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/02/will-tomorrow-see-the-return-of-the-anti-tory-tactical-voter/

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/02/is-a-boris-victory-worse-for-the-cameroons-than-a-defeat/

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/05/will-cameron-go-the-way-of-heath/

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/05/when-is-boris-going-to-return-to-westminster/

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/08/dave-nick-go-to-essex-to-renew-their-marriage-vows/

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/09/what-are-the-chances-of-an-mp-defection-to-ukip/

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/10/have-the-blues-been-pinning-too-much-on-geeky-edm/

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/12/will-hunt-have-to-go/

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/13/miliband-takes-a-6pc-net-lead-in-yougovs-leader-ratings/

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/15/camerons-mori-ratings-now-worse-than-gordon-browns/

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/19/the-labed-surge-continues-with-the-borisken-top-pollster/

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/19/lab-increases-its-lead-by-4pc-with-comres-online/

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/20/is-jeremy-hunt-going-to-survive/

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/25/is-europe-the-issue-that-will-end-the-coalition/

    https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/26/the-first-splits-between-cameron-and-osborne-emerge/
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,933
    edited May 2021
    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    Also - I bet you that BMG Scotland poll shows the SNP majority is basically knife edge as we had thought it was going to be.

    Didn’t the last BMG have yes leading?

    Indeed, tonight's poll has No and Yes each on 50%, still miles behind the near 60% Yes was on last year
    You sound a bit rattled
    Of course not, we Tories will refuse a legal indyref2 and any change to the status of the Union as long as we stay in power.

    There is sod all the Nationalists can do about it
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Don’t panic, but..

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1388590332695257090?s=21

    BMG had SNP at 48% Constituency Vote and 42% on the List in Mid March,
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Gallowgate said:

    Has anyone noted that Corbynistas hate Keir Starmer more than they hate Blair, never mind the Tories?

    Maybe he’s not that bad after all.

    I see your point, then I saw him trying to punch .........
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,524
    Mortimer said:

    I am not at all surprised by the closing of the poll gap. Some solid tories (myself included) are not impressed by the events of this week.

    I shudder when I think of what Mrs May did in March and April 2019 which shafted the chances of hundreds of good councillor candidates. I hope Boris' personal life hasn't repeated the error.

    Time for the backbenches to start having some influence, in my opinion. If he isn't up to the job, time to find a replacement. If he is, he will recognise that it is time for a reshuffle and some proper Conservative policies. Shelving this obsession with Green nonsense would be a good start.

    Sorry.
    He ran in 2019 against Tory policies of the preceding 40 years. He has no ability to control his expenditure. And he tells folk what they want to hear.
    You can't have both the PM and "proper Conservative policies."
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Mexicanpete said:

    londonpubman said:

    Enjoy it LAB fans. Three years to go 👍👍👍

    Up until tonight, I had it down as at least 8 more years to go.
    Don't worry - it still is.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,712
    Gallowgate said:

    londonpubman said:

    Hard left wetting themselves on here. Most too young to remember LAB being a credible government.

    Remember 1986 LAB miles clear in local elections, took til 1997 to win GE.

    LAB enjoy your win next week, not coming at any GE soon.

    👍👍

    “Hard left”

    “Wetting themselves”

    Quite.
    Hope you are on here on Friday when LAB win Hartlepool. Another Gallowgate forecast success 👍
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,854
    londonpubman said:

    Hard left wetting themselves on here. Most too young to remember LAB being a credible government.

    Remember 1986 LAB miles clear in local elections, took til 1997 to win GE.

    LAB enjoy your win next week, not coming at any GE soon.

    👍👍

    You must introduce me to this Hard Left PB you’ve somehow identified.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 47,010
    Great to see signs in the polls of the shine coming off the magnificent man.

    But I'm not moved for Hartlepool and neither is the market. Cons 1.6.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,819
    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    Also - I bet you that BMG Scotland poll shows the SNP majority is basically knife edge as we had thought it was going to be.

    Didn’t the last BMG have yes leading?

    Indeed, tonight's poll has No and Yes each on 50%, still miles behind the near 60% Yes was on last year
    You sound a bit rattled
    Of course not, we will refuse a legal indyref2 and any change to the status of the Union as long as we Tories stay in power.

    There is sod all the Nationalists can do about it
    Every time someone posts something about IndyRef2, this is you:


  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,120
    Alistair said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Don’t panic, but..

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1388590332695257090?s=21

    BMG had SNP at 48% Constituency Vote and 42% on the List in Mid March,
    Interesting - you can see how tight it’ll be ..
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    Also - I bet you that BMG Scotland poll shows the SNP majority is basically knife edge as we had thought it was going to be.

    Didn’t the last BMG have yes leading?

    Indeed, tonight's poll has No and Yes each on 50%, still miles behind the near 60% Yes was on last year
    You sound a bit rattled
    Of course not, we will refuse a legal indyref2 and any change to the status of the Union as long as we Tories stay in power.

    There is sod all the Nationalists can do about it
    Every time someone posts something about IndyRef2, this is you:


    I felt so happy for HYUFD after he found aa subsample of a non BPC member poll showed Green voters not backing independence.

    It was such joy I couldn't bring myself to post the results from literally every other poll ever.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,760
    BluestBlue said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    londonpubman said:

    Enjoy it LAB fans. Three years to go 👍👍👍

    Up until tonight, I had it down as at least 8 more years to go.
    Don't worry - it still is.
    You may well be right, but I would appreciate a little analysis rather than your dreary "loser, loser" chant.
  • kjhkjh Posts: 13,116
    DougSeal said:

    londonpubman said:

    Hard left wetting themselves on here. Most too young to remember LAB being a credible government.

    Remember 1986 LAB miles clear in local elections, took til 1997 to win GE.

    LAB enjoy your win next week, not coming at any GE soon.

    👍👍

    You must introduce me to this Hard Left PB you’ve somehow identified.
    Wasting your time. I challenged pubman last time he came up with this phrase to name them. Failed to and just got insulting.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Funny how democracy for some is only when it suits them . We had years of respect the will of the people re Brexit but now if the SNP get a majority democracy dies in a ditch ! Bozo just causes mayhem and then will piss off to let someone else to clean up his mess ! If anyone deserves to lose the Union it should be on his watch but he’s too spineless to face the music !
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    edited May 2021
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Right, I must abed, but to keep you all excited, tomorrow afternoon's thread is about AV and electoral reform.

    With the upcoming Ranked Choice Vote for the next Mayor of New York City as the focus?

    EDIT - Fun fact. Current NYC front-runner Andrew Yang, is the first candidate for Mayor of the Big Apple to have an agricultural policy since Fiorello La Guardia.

    However, do NOT think that's the reason that the Little Flower was elected back then, OR that Yang is leading the pack today.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    kinabalu said:

    Great to see signs in the polls of the shine coming off the magnificent man.

    But I'm not moved for Hartlepool and neither is the market. Cons 1.6.

    It's not entirely fair to you, since you'll deserve all the kudos if you're right, but for all the other usual suspects:

    if the Tories win Hartlepool after the entire media have serially unloaded their bowels on Boris, I will NEVER shut up about it...
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,819
    edited May 2021
    BluestBlue said:

    kinabalu said:

    Great to see signs in the polls of the shine coming off the magnificent man.

    But I'm not moved for Hartlepool and neither is the market. Cons 1.6.

    It's not entirely fair to you, since you'll deserve all the kudos if you're right, but for all the other usual suspects:

    if the Tories win Hartlepool after the entire media have serially unloaded their bowels on Boris, I will NEVER shut up about it...
    I mean, the Tories will win Hartlepool
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 22,470
    BluestBlue said:

    kinabalu said:

    Great to see signs in the polls of the shine coming off the magnificent man.

    But I'm not moved for Hartlepool and neither is the market. Cons 1.6.

    It's not entirely fair to you, since you'll deserve all the kudos if you're right, but for all the other usual suspects:

    if the Tories win Hartlepool after the entire media have serially unloaded their bowels on Boris, I will NEVER shut up about it...
    I think Boris has rather unloaded his own bowels.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,237
    HYUFD said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Don’t panic, but..

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1388590332695257090?s=21

    Why should anyone panic. Few give a shit about Scots Independence because it isn't going to happen anytime soon. Its a bit like Labour believing they xcan win outright at the next G E.
    And yet BJ’s mouthpiece thinks he’s panicking.

    'Fears SNP could launch independence bid immediately
    Several Cabinet ministers and senior figures close to Mr Johnson this weekend privately expressed their grave fears at the prospect of a big win for Ms Sturgeon who – Downing Street sources fear – could try to order a new independence referendum as soon as the result is announced.

    A senior source said that the result was likely to be "bloody awful" in Scotland.

    One minister said that the SNP were viewing Thursday’s vote as “a referendum on a referendum. There is no room for complacency. We are in a bare knuckle fight.”

    Another Cabinet minister privately advocated voting for other unionist parties than the Conservatives to see off the SNP threat. They said people should "vote for parties that will save the Union and avoid Scotland going into the chaos of economic uncertainty at a time when we have to build back better under Covid".'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/05/01/billions-scots-boris-johnson-plans-spending-spree-save-union/?utm_content=telegraph&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1619899315
    It does not matter because what ever happens on Thursday the UK government will refuse a legal indyref2 and as Union matters are reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998 there is nothing the Natonalists can do about it.

    The sooner they stop whinging and get on with running Scottish domestic policy the better, there will only be a chance of a meaningful indyref2 even being considered if Starmer becomes PM in 2024 reliant on SNP confidence and supply
    From yesterday’s decision not to allow an appeal in the Keatings Section 30 case:

    The judges concluded: “Were the Court to have been of the view that it ought to have answered the questions asked, it would have done so as a matter of straightforward statutory interpretation” of the Scotland Act 1998. “The question would have been whether an Act to hold a referendum on Scottish Independence ‘relates to the Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England’ or ‘the Parliament of the United Kingdom’ having regard to its effect in all the circumstances. Viewed in this way, it may not be too difficult to arrive at a conclusion, but that is a matter, perhaps, for another day.”
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,186
    Gallowgate said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am not at all surprised by the closing of the poll gap. Some solid tories (myself included) are not impressed by the events of this week.

    I shudder when I think of what Mrs May did in March and April 2019 which shafted the chances of hundreds of good councillor candidates. I hope Boris' personal life hasn't repeated the error.

    Time for the backbenches to start having some influence, in my opinion. If he isn't up to the job, time to find a replacement. If he is, he will recognise that it is time for a reshuffle and some proper Conservative policies. Shelving this obsession with Green nonsense would be a good start.

    What “Green nonsense” are you referring to?

    Surely conserving the earth is the most conservative policy possible?
    Conservative leaflets for this round of local elections have gone heavy on climate change but have more in common with the zealotry of XR than a measured and practical response for a brighter tomorrow.

    I think CCHQ want people to hear "green jobs" but what's actually cut through is banning and taxing stuff as well as vegan signalling from a couple of ministers.

    It's gone down like a cup of cold sick amongst many party members.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    BluestBlue said:

    IshmaelZ said:

    @BluestBlue is usually such a diligent commentator on the polls. Hope he's OK.

    Lol @IshmaelZ - your concern is much appreciated. I'll just point out, as before, that knee-jerkers on PB have predicted at least 24 of the last 0 political endgames for Boris Johnson. Once the media shitstorm subsides, his polling will improve, as it did after the Supreme Court 'crisis', after he 'died in a ditch', after Phonegate (which caused the final YouGov MRP to predict a majority of only 28), after Cummingsgate Mark 1, and after the series of tiers and lockdowns in winter, when it seemed there was little hope of us getting out of the pandemic at all.

    Care to declare on the record that this is the moment that his luck finally runs out forever? Somehow, I don't think you will.
    Yes.

    Even the very lucky run out of luck eventually. I think this is the beginning of the end. He is perilously exposed over wallpaper issues (which are in reality dishonesty and false accounting issues), the vaccine effect will wear off, the Brexit effect will wear off, the Red Wall will revert to type. He needs a huge brand new piece of good luck to appear over the horizon. Could happen, but. I don't now see him fighting the next GE.

    And I am just trying to state things the way I see them, so no need to sound so manic about "knee jerkers." I have never previously predicted his downfall. I said about Cummings/Barnard Castle that it was *IN THE LONG RUN* deeply damaging, and I feel pretty confident I was right about that.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,301
    BluestBlue said:

    kinabalu said:

    Great to see signs in the polls of the shine coming off the magnificent man.

    But I'm not moved for Hartlepool and neither is the market. Cons 1.6.

    It's not entirely fair to you, since you'll deserve all the kudos if you're right, but for all the other usual suspects:

    if the Tories win Hartlepool after the entire media have serially unloaded their bowels on Boris, I will NEVER shut up about it...
    Not the entire media. The Express is still pompom waving for Bozo. Some of their front pages are just ridiculous.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,819
    sarissa said:

    HYUFD said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    squareroot2 said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Don’t panic, but..

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1388590332695257090?s=21

    Why should anyone panic. Few give a shit about Scots Independence because it isn't going to happen anytime soon. Its a bit like Labour believing they xcan win outright at the next G E.
    And yet BJ’s mouthpiece thinks he’s panicking.

    'Fears SNP could launch independence bid immediately
    Several Cabinet ministers and senior figures close to Mr Johnson this weekend privately expressed their grave fears at the prospect of a big win for Ms Sturgeon who – Downing Street sources fear – could try to order a new independence referendum as soon as the result is announced.

    A senior source said that the result was likely to be "bloody awful" in Scotland.

    One minister said that the SNP were viewing Thursday’s vote as “a referendum on a referendum. There is no room for complacency. We are in a bare knuckle fight.”

    Another Cabinet minister privately advocated voting for other unionist parties than the Conservatives to see off the SNP threat. They said people should "vote for parties that will save the Union and avoid Scotland going into the chaos of economic uncertainty at a time when we have to build back better under Covid".'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/05/01/billions-scots-boris-johnson-plans-spending-spree-save-union/?utm_content=telegraph&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1619899315
    It does not matter because what ever happens on Thursday the UK government will refuse a legal indyref2 and as Union matters are reserved to Westminster under the Scotland Act 1998 there is nothing the Natonalists can do about it.

    The sooner they stop whinging and get on with running Scottish domestic policy the better, there will only be a chance of a meaningful indyref2 even being considered if Starmer becomes PM in 2024 reliant on SNP confidence and supply
    From yesterday’s decision not to allow an appeal in the Keatings Section 30 case:

    The judges concluded: “Were the Court to have been of the view that it ought to have answered the questions asked, it would have done so as a matter of straightforward statutory interpretation” of the Scotland Act 1998. “The question would have been whether an Act to hold a referendum on Scottish Independence ‘relates to the Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England’ or ‘the Parliament of the United Kingdom’ having regard to its effect in all the circumstances. Viewed in this way, it may not be too difficult to arrive at a conclusion, but that is a matter, perhaps, for another day.”
    Interesting...
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 2,237
    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    Also - I bet you that BMG Scotland poll shows the SNP majority is basically knife edge as we had thought it was going to be.

    Didn’t the last BMG have yes leading?

    Indeed, tonight's poll has No and Yes each on 50%, still miles behind the near 60% Yes was on last year
    When was that?



  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,301
    Gardenwalker said:

    BluestBlue said:

    kinabalu said:

    Great to see signs in the polls of the shine coming off the magnificent man.

    But I'm not moved for Hartlepool and neither is the market. Cons 1.6.

    It's not entirely fair to you, since you'll deserve all the kudos if you're right, but for all the other usual suspects:

    if the Tories win Hartlepool after the entire media have serially unloaded their bowels on Boris, I will NEVER shut up about it...
    I think Boris has rather unloaded his own bowels.
    All over his donor-funded luxury bedding.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,819
    Casino_Royale said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Mortimer said:

    I am not at all surprised by the closing of the poll gap. Some solid tories (myself included) are not impressed by the events of this week.

    I shudder when I think of what Mrs May did in March and April 2019 which shafted the chances of hundreds of good councillor candidates. I hope Boris' personal life hasn't repeated the error.

    Time for the backbenches to start having some influence, in my opinion. If he isn't up to the job, time to find a replacement. If he is, he will recognise that it is time for a reshuffle and some proper Conservative policies. Shelving this obsession with Green nonsense would be a good start.

    What “Green nonsense” are you referring to?

    Surely conserving the earth is the most conservative policy possible?
    Conservative leaflets for this round of local elections have gone heavy on climate change but have more in common with the zealotry of XR than a measured and practical response for a brighter tomorrow.

    I think CCHQ want people to hear "green jobs" but what's actually cut through is banning and taxing stuff as well as vegan signalling from a couple of ministers.

    It's gone down like a cup of cold sick amongst many party members.
    What kind of things have the leaflets talked about?

    I haven’t received any Conservative Party literature this time around, at least not yet...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,730
    Floater said:

    Gallowgate said:

    HYUFD said:

    Razedabode said:

    Also - I bet you that BMG Scotland poll shows the SNP majority is basically knife edge as we had thought it was going to be.

    Didn’t the last BMG have yes leading?

    Indeed, tonight's poll has No and Yes each on 50%, still miles behind the near 60% Yes was on last year
    You sound a bit rattled
    How do we invade when our carriers are off to the far east?
    They haven’t gone, yet, I saw both of them when walking the dog earlier.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 37,189
    edited May 2021
    "Daniel Tilles
    @danieltilles1

    The queue for Covid vaccines in Kraków this morning, after they were made available over the weekend without registration"

    https://twitter.com/danieltilles1/status/1388460831390769152
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    BluestBlue said:

    kinabalu said:

    Great to see signs in the polls of the shine coming off the magnificent man.

    But I'm not moved for Hartlepool and neither is the market. Cons 1.6.

    It's not entirely fair to you, since you'll deserve all the kudos if you're right, but for all the other usual suspects:

    if the Tories win Hartlepool after the entire media have serially unloaded their bowels on Boris, I will NEVER shut up about it...
    But what is the point of never shutting up about an odds on favourite winning? Where does mindless cheerleading get you?
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