A big polling night sees setbacks for the Tories and Johnson – politicalbetting.com
A big polling night sees setbacks for the Tories and Johnson – politicalbetting.com
Johnson's net approval lead over Starmer from tonight's Opinium by region pic.twitter.com/OdqI0JPI6M
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I know there are local elections next week, and this site is concerned with politics, but I think these polls are next to useless.
But that's what happens when the bastard teenage son of the previous pope is made Pontiff.
According to the poll, conducted by Focaldata, 47% think the PM should resign if he is found to have broken electoral law; 36% said he should not resign.
Some of the comments and allegations on here this evening, if proven, must see his resignation and sometime in 2021 seems possible
I have no idea how this comes through on Thursday, but tonight Boris is not in the position most everyone expected before wallpapergate
Interesting times
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1388590332695257090?s=21
"Hard to stress how MASSIVE the implications are"
!!!!
Wait, this is a bunch of local elections, and a by election in an Opposition seat, in some obscure little hamlet in the desolate north, basically Tundra Central. They probably eat lichen up there.
AND this is during a plague which dwarfs the US presidential elections, let alone Welsh county councillors, FFS
No one cares. This will be forgotten about in a week, whatever happens
The only potentially big election is in Scotland, but these polls are irrelevant to that, and, besides, the only main reason they might be big Over Hadrians is if Nicola wins an incredibly big majority (thus potentially stoking her demand for indyref2) or if she fails to win a majority by quite a margin (thus threatening her position as leader)
Both of these are unlikely. These polls are not dramatic or even especially interesting
15 years on, I still find it funny.
Also, on all four competences he is well in front of Starmer
I am not suggesting Boris is not suffering a wallpapergate effect but this particular poll is not consistent with the narrative
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1388553502541111304?s=19
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1388595773026324483/photo/1
The December figure is from a 20,000 plus sample size MRP whilst this is a voting intention poll.
Pollsters have said comparing the two figures can be comparing apples to oranges.
Despite the huge handicap of losing almost every home game against the teams below us.
'Fears SNP could launch independence bid immediately
Several Cabinet ministers and senior figures close to Mr Johnson this weekend privately expressed their grave fears at the prospect of a big win for Ms Sturgeon who – Downing Street sources fear – could try to order a new independence referendum as soon as the result is announced.
A senior source said that the result was likely to be "bloody awful" in Scotland.
One minister said that the SNP were viewing Thursday’s vote as “a referendum on a referendum. There is no room for complacency. We are in a bare knuckle fight.”
Another Cabinet minister privately advocated voting for other unionist parties than the Conservatives to see off the SNP threat. They said people should "vote for parties that will save the Union and avoid Scotland going into the chaos of economic uncertainty at a time when we have to build back better under Covid".'
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/05/01/billions-scots-boris-johnson-plans-spending-spree-save-union/?utm_content=telegraph&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Echobox&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1619899315
28th February AZ secretly exports 300,000 vaccine doses from the UK to Australia.
4th March Italy blocks 250,000 doses from being exported to Australia.
?
A handicap is when your three first choice centre backs are ruled out with season ending injuries in October, November, and January.
To be fair - maybe this wallpaper stuff will help him realise that quickly..
Put the fear of God-and-Alba in them. "The UK is almost defenceless against the mighty Nicola, save your country on Thursday!!!!!" etc etc
The Scots would be silly not to vote SNP.
I think the PM should sack him.
Hang on though.
https://twitter.com/OzKaterji/status/1388598594584907776
https://twitter.com/Coldwar_Steve/status/1388598952954638340?s=20
Ironically centre back is the only position we could lose our first choice three without noticing much.
Moving on to WW2, (in a sense) my sense is that the C&UPS Boris is still the mightiest battleship in the Tory fleet, having recently routed the opposition by sinking their own prized if highly over-rated vessel, the LABS Jezzbolah.
Though sustaining some damage in its last encounter with the Labour flotilla, the Tory flagship is still cruising at speed, but now in the direction of a safe home port.
However, while Boris has suffered no obvious damage below the waterline, the good ship is experience serious bilge-pumping difficulties that threaten to sully the clear blue water.
And in the sky, a brave if scrawny and slow-moving Stringbags is flying over choppy seas and overcast skies, desperately seeking to locate the enemy. Whether or not this plucky band will succeed in scoring many or any significant hits upon the Tory battlewagon remains to be seen.
OF course, the icy waters of the North Atlantic are NOT the only front in this struggle. Indeed, the Red Horde is currently in a hostile posture toward one of it's key potential allies against the Blue Meanies, in a remote yet nonetheless critical battle field. Not to mention sideshows on the periphery of the globe, far far to the west of the Shepard's Bush roundabout.
The sooner they stop whinging and get on with running Scottish domestic policy the better, there will only be a chance of a meaningful indyref2 even being considered if Starmer becomes PM in 2024 reliant on SNP confidence and supply
(Not one of the 10 polls listed in the article has a the 6 point gap I think is the case. But the average is 5.9)
All the polls for weeks have been within these parameters, and as always any little shift in the trend can only be confirmed by waiting for the next one, which is why poll watching is such fun and never ends.
Hartlepool on these trends will stay Labour unless the Brexit gang turn up for the Tories. I suspect they will go shopping for gold plated wallpaper instead.
As for local elections and so on, well I am off to vote Labour, something I have not done in a GE for ages, and no plans to start.
Is this going to change a single vote?
As a canny Scot I might even be minded to vote SNP to screw even more out of the Tory twats in Westminster.
Didn’t the last BMG have yes leading?
However it should be remembered Ed Miliband won his first local elections in 2011 by 2% over the Tories, even Kinnock was only 1% behind Thatcher's Tories in his first locals in 1984. Labour led the 2016 locals by 1% in Corbyn's first electoral test, despite his abysmal local result the following year, so even if Starmer is 1% behind on Thursday it would only be par for the course for a Labour opposition leader.
Still miles behind Blair who won his first local elections by a huge 22% margin over Major's Tories in 1995
I reckon both are true, The UKG is now focussing on the need to fend off indyref2 bids, and how that will be done, facing another SNP govt (having been distracted for a year or more by Covid)
Meanwhile they see also some benefit in exaggerating the threat, so as to energise anti-Nat voters
Maybe he’s not that bad after all.
I shudder when I think of what Mrs May did in March and April 2019 which shafted the chances of hundreds of good councillor candidates. I hope Boris' personal life hasn't repeated the error.
Time for the backbenches to start having some influence, in my opinion. If he isn't up to the job, time to find a replacement. If he is, he will recognise that it is time for a reshuffle and some proper Conservative policies. Shelving this obsession with Green nonsense would be a good start.
Surely conserving the earth is the most conservative policy possible?
Care to declare on the record that this is the moment that his luck finally runs out forever? Somehow, I don't think you will.
Remember 1986 LAB miles clear in local elections, took til 1997 to win GE.
LAB enjoy your win next week, not coming at any GE soon.
👍👍
“Wetting themselves”
Quite.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election_(2010–2012)#2012
The PB leads from May 2012 bring back some memories of the EICIPM era:
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/02/will-tomorrow-see-the-return-of-the-anti-tory-tactical-voter/
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/02/is-a-boris-victory-worse-for-the-cameroons-than-a-defeat/
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/05/will-cameron-go-the-way-of-heath/
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/05/when-is-boris-going-to-return-to-westminster/
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/08/dave-nick-go-to-essex-to-renew-their-marriage-vows/
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/09/what-are-the-chances-of-an-mp-defection-to-ukip/
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/10/have-the-blues-been-pinning-too-much-on-geeky-edm/
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/12/will-hunt-have-to-go/
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/13/miliband-takes-a-6pc-net-lead-in-yougovs-leader-ratings/
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/15/camerons-mori-ratings-now-worse-than-gordon-browns/
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/19/the-labed-surge-continues-with-the-borisken-top-pollster/
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/19/lab-increases-its-lead-by-4pc-with-comres-online/
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/20/is-jeremy-hunt-going-to-survive/
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/25/is-europe-the-issue-that-will-end-the-coalition/
https://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2012/05/26/the-first-splits-between-cameron-and-osborne-emerge/
There is sod all the Nationalists can do about it
He ran in 2019 against Tory policies of the preceding 40 years. He has no ability to control his expenditure. And he tells folk what they want to hear.
You can't have both the PM and "proper Conservative policies."
But I'm not moved for Hartlepool and neither is the market. Cons 1.6.
It was such joy I couldn't bring myself to post the results from literally every other poll ever.
EDIT - Fun fact. Current NYC front-runner Andrew Yang, is the first candidate for Mayor of the Big Apple to have an agricultural policy since Fiorello La Guardia.
However, do NOT think that's the reason that the Little Flower was elected back then, OR that Yang is leading the pack today.
if the Tories win Hartlepool after the entire media have serially unloaded their bowels on Boris, I will NEVER shut up about it...
The judges concluded: “Were the Court to have been of the view that it ought to have answered the questions asked, it would have done so as a matter of straightforward statutory interpretation” of the Scotland Act 1998. “The question would have been whether an Act to hold a referendum on Scottish Independence ‘relates to the Union of the Kingdoms of Scotland and England’ or ‘the Parliament of the United Kingdom’ having regard to its effect in all the circumstances. Viewed in this way, it may not be too difficult to arrive at a conclusion, but that is a matter, perhaps, for another day.”
I think CCHQ want people to hear "green jobs" but what's actually cut through is banning and taxing stuff as well as vegan signalling from a couple of ministers.
It's gone down like a cup of cold sick amongst many party members.
Even the very lucky run out of luck eventually. I think this is the beginning of the end. He is perilously exposed over wallpaper issues (which are in reality dishonesty and false accounting issues), the vaccine effect will wear off, the Brexit effect will wear off, the Red Wall will revert to type. He needs a huge brand new piece of good luck to appear over the horizon. Could happen, but. I don't now see him fighting the next GE.
And I am just trying to state things the way I see them, so no need to sound so manic about "knee jerkers." I have never previously predicted his downfall. I said about Cummings/Barnard Castle that it was *IN THE LONG RUN* deeply damaging, and I feel pretty confident I was right about that.
I haven’t received any Conservative Party literature this time around, at least not yet...
@danieltilles1
The queue for Covid vaccines in Kraków this morning, after they were made available over the weekend without registration"
https://twitter.com/danieltilles1/status/1388460831390769152