I am not at all surprised by the closing of the poll gap. Some solid tories (myself included) are not impressed by the events of this week.
I shudder when I think of what Mrs May did in March and April 2019 which shafted the chances of hundreds of good councillor candidates. I hope Boris' personal life hasn't repeated the error.
Time for the backbenches to start having some influence, in my opinion. If he isn't up to the job, time to find a replacement. If he is, he will recognise that it is time for a reshuffle and some proper Conservative policies. Shelving this obsession with Green nonsense would be a good start.
What “Green nonsense” are you referring to?
Surely conserving the earth is the most conservative policy possible?
Conservative leaflets for this round of local elections have gone heavy on climate change but have more in common with the zealotry of XR than a measured and practical response for a brighter tomorrow.
I think CCHQ want people to hear "green jobs" but what's actually cut through is banning and taxing stuff as well as vegan signalling from a couple of ministers.
It's gone down like a cup of cold sick amongst many party members.
"gone down like a cup of cold sick"
This phrase intrigues me, it's virtually unheard in America. Though we get the meaning loud & clear!
Does anyone know the origin?
Monty Python. Is where I first saw it
I remember a rhyme in the 1960s about school dinners. Hot snot and bogie pie. All wrapped up in a dead dog’s eye. Creamy phlegm to make it thick. All washed down with a cup of cold sick.
Any earlier examples, PBers?
Sounds like luxury compared to what I was served up.
You were served? Luxury! We had to get up before dawn, walk 10 miles to scrap the day old roadkill off the motorway
I dread to think what the four Yorkshiremen were served for school dinners!
When I was in the 6th grade, the rumor was that our school cafeteria was putting saltpeter in the food to curb our adolescent sex drive. (Most of us didn't know what saltpeter was, but the name was certainly suggestive AND suspicious.)
Poor Boris - 'Johnson has told friends that he needs to earn about £300,000 a year — twice his salary — to keep his head above water, while a former No 10 insider said it was “received wisdom” that he is permanently broke.'
I thought a good chunk of conservatism was fiscal responsibility? Why do conservative members not care their figurehead displays none of the prudence the party championed for the last half century?
Extending this I have true blue relatives for whom adultery is a black mark against your character but for Johnson it is never mentioned.
To be fair Boris is a social democrat with a blue rosette, he is the least fiscally conservative Tory leader since Macmillan, certainly as far as spending is concerned.
He is also a social liberal, May was more socially conservative than Boris
That would be the Theresa May that introduced same sex marriage versus the Boris Johnson who used terms like tank topped bum boys?
I am not at all surprised by the closing of the poll gap. Some solid tories (myself included) are not impressed by the events of this week.
I shudder when I think of what Mrs May did in March and April 2019 which shafted the chances of hundreds of good councillor candidates. I hope Boris' personal life hasn't repeated the error.
Time for the backbenches to start having some influence, in my opinion. If he isn't up to the job, time to find a replacement. If he is, he will recognise that it is time for a reshuffle and some proper Conservative policies. Shelving this obsession with Green nonsense would be a good start.
What “Green nonsense” are you referring to?
Surely conserving the earth is the most conservative policy possible?
Conservative leaflets for this round of local elections have gone heavy on climate change but have more in common with the zealotry of XR than a measured and practical response for a brighter tomorrow.
I think CCHQ want people to hear "green jobs" but what's actually cut through is banning and taxing stuff as well as vegan signalling from a couple of ministers.
It's gone down like a cup of cold sick amongst many party members.
"gone down like a cup of cold sick"
This phrase intrigues me, it's virtually unheard in America. Though we get the meaning loud & clear!
Does anyone know the origin?
Monty Python. Is where I first saw it
I remember a rhyme in the 1960s about school dinners. Hot snot and bogie pie. All wrapped up in a dead dog’s eye. Creamy phlegm to make it thick. All washed down with a cup of cold sick.
Any earlier examples, PBers?
Sounds like luxury compared to what I was served up.
You were served? Luxury! We had to get up before dawn, walk 10 miles to scrap the day old roadkill off the motorway
And enjoyed cold pheasant (or was it peasant) on toast!
Only had roadkill at Christmas.
I would have had dead dog eye in a Xmas sock if it hadn’t fallen through the holes.
Went round grans on Sundays and she used to treat us to sugared fruit flies.
Why should anyone panic. Few give a shit about Scots Independence because it isn't going to happen anytime soon. Its a bit like Labour believing they xcan win outright at the next G E.
And yet BJ’s mouthpiece thinks he’s panicking.
'Fears SNP could launch independence bid immediately Several Cabinet ministers and senior figures close to Mr Johnson this weekend privately expressed their grave fears at the prospect of a big win for Ms Sturgeon who – Downing Street sources fear – could try to order a new independence referendum as soon as the result is announced.
A senior source said that the result was likely to be "bloody awful" in Scotland.
One minister said that the SNP were viewing Thursday’s vote as “a referendum on a referendum. There is no room for complacency. We are in a bare knuckle fight.”
Another Cabinet minister privately advocated voting for other unionist parties than the Conservatives to see off the SNP threat. They said people should "vote for parties that will save the Union and avoid Scotland going into the chaos of economic uncertainty at a time when we have to build back better under Covid".'
Perhaps - and its only an idea - the Tories could have retained more seats had they not sold out Scottish brexit-voting fishing communities. There is a reason that the farmer's big ScotCon boards keep having SCUM spray-painted on them...
I believe the approved BJ loyalist line now is that fisher folk were fucking fools for believing BJ and should have known that they were naught but pawns to be sacrificed. If only someone had tried to warn them that this would happen..
None of them represent fishing port constituencies at Holyood, they are all elected on the list for the vast North East region. Every Scottish region has at least 2 Tory list MSPs and most have 3 and 4 so your point is irrelevant
If the MSPs elected to the North East region do not represent the people in the North East region then what do you think they represent?
Happy to remove them if you don't want them. You do understand that at least a couple of these Tory seats will go Green don't you? Thats -2 for the union and +2 for independence.
Only votes for SNP and Alba MSPs therefore count as independence votes and on some current polls the SNP could even lose seats next week.
Not that it matters as we Tories are the UK government and we will refuse indyref2 anyway and Union matters are reserved to Westminster, though fewer SNP MSPs will make it easier when we do refuse indyref2
HYUFD as ever you are the voice of reason.
Rochdale will always live in his fantasy world. His party - it seems to change every minute - might one day win power!
I am not at all surprised by the closing of the poll gap. Some solid tories (myself included) are not impressed by the events of this week.
I shudder when I think of what Mrs May did in March and April 2019 which shafted the chances of hundreds of good councillor candidates. I hope Boris' personal life hasn't repeated the error.
Time for the backbenches to start having some influence, in my opinion. If he isn't up to the job, time to find a replacement. If he is, he will recognise that it is time for a reshuffle and some proper Conservative policies. Shelving this obsession with Green nonsense would be a good start.
What “Green nonsense” are you referring to?
Surely conserving the earth is the most conservative policy possible?
Conservative leaflets for this round of local elections have gone heavy on climate change but have more in common with the zealotry of XR than a measured and practical response for a brighter tomorrow.
I think CCHQ want people to hear "green jobs" but what's actually cut through is banning and taxing stuff as well as vegan signalling from a couple of ministers.
It's gone down like a cup of cold sick amongst many party members.
"gone down like a cup of cold sick"
This phrase intrigues me, it's virtually unheard in America. Though we get the meaning loud & clear!
Does anyone know the origin?
Monty Python. Is where I first saw it
I remember a rhyme in the 1960s about school dinners. Hot snot and bogie pie. All wrapped up in a dead dog’s eye. Creamy phlegm to make it thick. All washed down with a cup of cold sick.
Any earlier examples, PBers?
Sounds like luxury compared to what I was served up.
You were served? Luxury! We had to get up before dawn, walk 10 miles to scrap the day old roadkill off the motorway
I dread to think what the four Yorkshiremen were served for school dinners!
When I was in the 6th grade, the rumor was that our school cafeteria was putting saltpeter in the food to curb our adolescent sex drive. (Most of us didn't know what saltpeter was, but the name was certainly suggestive AND suspicious.)
No doubt true - but it did NOT work!
Off top my head, gunpowder? And that’s supposed to stop the banging?
Poor Boris - 'Johnson has told friends that he needs to earn about £300,000 a year — twice his salary — to keep his head above water, while a former No 10 insider said it was “received wisdom” that he is permanently broke.'
I thought a good chunk of conservatism was fiscal responsibility? Why do conservative members not care their figurehead displays none of the prudence the party championed for the last half century?
Extending this I have true blue relatives for whom adultery is a black mark against your character but for Johnson it is never mentioned.
To be fair Boris is a social democrat with a blue rosette, he is the least fiscally conservative Tory leader since Macmillan, certainly as far as spending is concerned.
He is also a social liberal, May was more socially conservative than Boris
The party members however..... I'm sure there are few who would speak up for the improvident.
I am not at all surprised by the closing of the poll gap. Some solid tories (myself included) are not impressed by the events of this week.
I shudder when I think of what Mrs May did in March and April 2019 which shafted the chances of hundreds of good councillor candidates. I hope Boris' personal life hasn't repeated the error.
Time for the backbenches to start having some influence, in my opinion. If he isn't up to the job, time to find a replacement. If he is, he will recognise that it is time for a reshuffle and some proper Conservative policies. Shelving this obsession with Green nonsense would be a good start.
What “Green nonsense” are you referring to?
Surely conserving the earth is the most conservative policy possible?
Conservative leaflets for this round of local elections have gone heavy on climate change but have more in common with the zealotry of XR than a measured and practical response for a brighter tomorrow.
I think CCHQ want people to hear "green jobs" but what's actually cut through is banning and taxing stuff as well as vegan signalling from a couple of ministers.
It's gone down like a cup of cold sick amongst many party members.
"gone down like a cup of cold sick"
This phrase intrigues me, it's virtually unheard in America. Though we get the meaning loud & clear!
Does anyone know the origin?
Monty Python. Is where I first saw it
I remember a rhyme in the 1960s about school dinners. Hot snot and bogie pie. All wrapped up in a dead dog’s eye. Creamy phlegm to make it thick. All washed down with a cup of cold sick.
Any earlier examples, PBers?
Sounds like luxury compared to what I was served up.
You were served? Luxury! We had to get up before dawn, walk 10 miles to scrap the day old roadkill off the motorway
And enjoyed cold pheasant (or was it peasant) on toast!
Only had roadkill at Christmas.
I would have had dead dog eye in a Xmas sock if it hadn’t fallen through the holes.
Went round grans on Sundays and she used to treat us to sugared fruit flies.
I am not at all surprised by the closing of the poll gap. Some solid tories (myself included) are not impressed by the events of this week.
I shudder when I think of what Mrs May did in March and April 2019 which shafted the chances of hundreds of good councillor candidates. I hope Boris' personal life hasn't repeated the error.
Time for the backbenches to start having some influence, in my opinion. If he isn't up to the job, time to find a replacement. If he is, he will recognise that it is time for a reshuffle and some proper Conservative policies. Shelving this obsession with Green nonsense would be a good start.
What “Green nonsense” are you referring to?
Surely conserving the earth is the most conservative policy possible?
Conservative leaflets for this round of local elections have gone heavy on climate change but have more in common with the zealotry of XR than a measured and practical response for a brighter tomorrow.
I think CCHQ want people to hear "green jobs" but what's actually cut through is banning and taxing stuff as well as vegan signalling from a couple of ministers.
It's gone down like a cup of cold sick amongst many party members.
"gone down like a cup of cold sick"
This phrase intrigues me, it's virtually unheard in America. Though we get the meaning loud & clear!
Does anyone know the origin?
Monty Python. Is where I first saw it
I remember a rhyme in the 1960s about school dinners. Hot snot and bogie pie. All wrapped up in a dead dog’s eye. Creamy phlegm to make it thick. All washed down with a cup of cold sick.
Any earlier examples, PBers?
Sounds like luxury compared to what I was served up.
You were served? Luxury! We had to get up before dawn, walk 10 miles to scrap the day old roadkill off the motorway
And enjoyed cold pheasant (or was it peasant) on toast!
Only had roadkill at Christmas.
I would have had dead dog eye in a Xmas sock if it hadn’t fallen through the holes.
Went round grans on Sundays and she used to treat us to sugared fruit flies.
Used to chew tar off road.
Your Gran must have been rich if she could afford sugar for the fruit flies. She wasn’t from Yorkshire, obviously.
Poor Boris - 'Johnson has told friends that he needs to earn about £300,000 a year — twice his salary — to keep his head above water, while a former No 10 insider said it was “received wisdom” that he is permanently broke.'
I thought a good chunk of conservatism was fiscal responsibility? Why do conservative members not care their figurehead displays none of the prudence the party championed for the last half century?
Extending this I have true blue relatives for whom adultery is a black mark against your character but for Johnson it is never mentioned.
To be fair Boris is a social democrat with a blue rosette, he is the least fiscally conservative Tory leader since Macmillan, certainly as far as spending is concerned.
He is also a social liberal, May was more socially conservative than Boris
That would be the Theresa May that introduced same sex marriage versus the Boris Johnson who used terms like tank topped bum boys?
One of the most amusing things about recent Tory politics are the three completely different stands their three most recent leaders have espoused (liberal socially, right-wing economics/authoritarian, right-wing/liberal-centrist, left wing).
In the absence of opposition the tories have created their own opposition. I just hope that the current position of the big two continue the revival of the orange-bookers.
Vegans can go to hell in a handcart if they expect others to join them in their cult. Cult, religion, whatever you want to call it, it isn't ethics and it isn't science.
I'm happy to do my part for the environment but that does not mean changing from being an omnivore.
I'd give short shrift to any vegan getting on their high horse about their lifestyle, but playing devil's advocateI don't actually think I've ever met a vegan who adhered to the stereotype of banging on about it, and it seems unlikely there are so few I've never met one.
I know quite several dozen, because I work in the animal welfare sector. I'm not one myself, but have never met one who was anything but amicably accepting that different people have different preferences. No doubt there are exceptions, but it's a caricature like the bloated capitalist or the woke-mad ideologue. For that matter, I know vegans who aren't in XR, and XR supporters who aren't vegan.
There's a well-researched scientific case for less meat production, though, advanced by report like EAT:Lancet which have no interest whatever in animal welfare. Briefly, current levels of consumption generate demand for intensive farms, which depend on massive grain imports, typically as a result of forest clearances in South America. It's generally accepted by scientists that this can't go on indefinitely. It doesn't mean you can't eat meat, but reduction is a helpful idea. If the reduction takes the form of focusing on higher-welfare meat, typically grass-fed, so much the better. The Tories are well up on this, to be fair, and it's presumably their publications on the issue that have annoyed Philip.
Great to see signs in the polls of the shine coming off the magnificent man.
But I'm not moved for Hartlepool and neither is the market. Cons 1.6.
It's not entirely fair to you, since you'll deserve all the kudos if you're right, but for all the other usual suspects:
if the Tories win Hartlepool after the entire media have serially unloaded their bowels on Boris, I will NEVER shut up about it...
But what is the point of never shutting up about an odds on favourite winning? Where does mindless cheerleading get you?
Wait a minute, so do today's polls matter or don't they? You presumably think they should affect the odds of the Tories winning Parliamentary seats, otherwise what's the point in discussing them at all? If Boris has now entered a fatal tailspin and is running neck-and-neck with Labour, those odds must be wrong.
Calm down. They matter, but only a tiny bit. They may faintly hint at an inflection in a trend. They are not the reason for thinking we are past peak Boris, they are merely consistent with that view. Hartlepool will be done and dusted before May 26, before the resolution of wallpapergate, before people have had time to process new facts and change minds.
As someone astutely pointed out yesterday you cannot see Black Wednesday in the polling for 1992.
Well, you're the one who requested my personal input on today's polls, so that's exactly what you got.
I'm not sure that last point about 1992 is actually correct - Labour took the lead in the average of all the polls within a few weeks of Black Wednesday and never lost it during that Parliament. By December 1992, they had a 15-point average lead.
Now, perhaps Boris' wallpaper will cause interest rates to hit double digits and have a material impact on people's lives; or perhaps they'll go back to caring about the things that do actually affect them, like the return of all their freedoms and the economy roaring back to life. Who knows?
Poor Boris - 'Johnson has told friends that he needs to earn about £300,000 a year — twice his salary — to keep his head above water, while a former No 10 insider said it was “received wisdom” that he is permanently broke.'
I thought a good chunk of conservatism was fiscal responsibility? Why do conservative members not care their figurehead displays none of the prudence the party championed for the last half century?
Extending this I have true blue relatives for whom adultery is a black mark against your character but for Johnson it is never mentioned.
To be fair Boris is a social democrat with a blue rosette, he is the least fiscally conservative Tory leader since Macmillan, certainly as far as spending is concerned.
He is also a social liberal, May was more socially conservative than Boris
That would be the Theresa May that introduced same sex marriage versus the Boris Johnson who used terms like tank topped bum boys?
I am not at all surprised by the closing of the poll gap. Some solid tories (myself included) are not impressed by the events of this week.
I shudder when I think of what Mrs May did in March and April 2019 which shafted the chances of hundreds of good councillor candidates. I hope Boris' personal life hasn't repeated the error.
Time for the backbenches to start having some influence, in my opinion. If he isn't up to the job, time to find a replacement. If he is, he will recognise that it is time for a reshuffle and some proper Conservative policies. Shelving this obsession with Green nonsense would be a good start.
What “Green nonsense” are you referring to?
Surely conserving the earth is the most conservative policy possible?
I think CCHQ want people to hear "green jobs" but what's actually cut through is banning and taxing stuff as well as vegan signalling from a couple of ministers.
I can believe the former, but I cannot believe for a second that 'vegan signalling' has had any cut through whatsoever.
BTW, there is a famous vegan strip club in Portland, Oregon. (No doubt some close to Boris will wish to do some first-person research?)
One thing I've NOT been able to figure out: are the customers vegan, or the strippers? Or both?
Poor Boris - 'Johnson has told friends that he needs to earn about £300,000 a year — twice his salary — to keep his head above water, while a former No 10 insider said it was “received wisdom” that he is permanently broke.'
I thought a good chunk of conservatism was fiscal responsibility? Why do conservative members not care their figurehead displays none of the prudence the party championed for the last half century?
Extending this I have true blue relatives for whom adultery is a black mark against your character but for Johnson it is never mentioned.
Very similar to Americans who would turn their own child from their door, for committing one-tenth of the abominations & blasphemies attributed to Trumpsky, their Great White Hope.
I am not at all surprised by the closing of the poll gap. Some solid tories (myself included) are not impressed by the events of this week.
I shudder when I think of what Mrs May did in March and April 2019 which shafted the chances of hundreds of good councillor candidates. I hope Boris' personal life hasn't repeated the error.
Time for the backbenches to start having some influence, in my opinion. If he isn't up to the job, time to find a replacement. If he is, he will recognise that it is time for a reshuffle and some proper Conservative policies. Shelving this obsession with Green nonsense would be a good start.
What “Green nonsense” are you referring to?
Surely conserving the earth is the most conservative policy possible?
Conservative leaflets for this round of local elections have gone heavy on climate change but have more in common with the zealotry of XR than a measured and practical response for a brighter tomorrow.
I think CCHQ want people to hear "green jobs" but what's actually cut through is banning and taxing stuff as well as vegan signalling from a couple of ministers.
It's gone down like a cup of cold sick amongst many party members.
"gone down like a cup of cold sick"
This phrase intrigues me, it's virtually unheard in America. Though we get the meaning loud & clear!
Does anyone know the origin?
Monty Python. Is where I first saw it
I remember a rhyme in the 1960s about school dinners. Hot snot and bogie pie. All wrapped up in a dead dog’s eye. Creamy phlegm to make it thick. All washed down with a cup of cold sick.
Any earlier examples, PBers?
Sounds like luxury compared to what I was served up.
You were served? Luxury! We had to get up before dawn, walk 10 miles to scrap the day old roadkill off the motorway
And enjoyed cold pheasant (or was it peasant) on toast!
Only had roadkill at Christmas.
I would have had dead dog eye in a Xmas sock if it hadn’t fallen through the holes.
Went round grans on Sundays and she used to treat us to sugared fruit flies.
Used to chew tar off road.
Sugar with yer flies? Luxury!
We had to catch them first, so she could put them in the fruit cake.
Anyway, this isn’t politics or betting. Shall we talk about how the Tories have slashed foreign aid, will get years of negative coverage for doing it, is it really going to turn into a vote winner?
There must be a reason Thatcher, Major Cameron resisted the calls of the right wing press telling them its an easy sell merely helping India a bit less with their space programme?
I am not at all surprised by the closing of the poll gap. Some solid tories (myself included) are not impressed by the events of this week.
I shudder when I think of what Mrs May did in March and April 2019 which shafted the chances of hundreds of good councillor candidates. I hope Boris' personal life hasn't repeated the error.
Time for the backbenches to start having some influence, in my opinion. If he isn't up to the job, time to find a replacement. If he is, he will recognise that it is time for a reshuffle and some proper Conservative policies. Shelving this obsession with Green nonsense would be a good start.
What “Green nonsense” are you referring to?
Surely conserving the earth is the most conservative policy possible?
I think CCHQ want people to hear "green jobs" but what's actually cut through is banning and taxing stuff as well as vegan signalling from a couple of ministers.
I can believe the former, but I cannot believe for a second that 'vegan signalling' has had any cut through whatsoever.
BTW, there is a famous vegan strip club in Portland, Oregon. (No doubt some close to Boris will wish to do some first-person research?)
One thing I've NOT been able to figure out: are the customers vegan, or the strippers? Or both?
Did you make appropriate enquiries?
Am trying to save up the bus fare to investigate. Which is why I suggested a PB Expeditionary Farce to help finance this quest for knowledge, enlightenment and (dare I say it?) moral & physical uplift
I am not at all surprised by the closing of the poll gap. Some solid tories (myself included) are not impressed by the events of this week.
I shudder when I think of what Mrs May did in March and April 2019 which shafted the chances of hundreds of good councillor candidates. I hope Boris' personal life hasn't repeated the error.
Time for the backbenches to start having some influence, in my opinion. If he isn't up to the job, time to find a replacement. If he is, he will recognise that it is time for a reshuffle and some proper Conservative policies. Shelving this obsession with Green nonsense would be a good start.
What “Green nonsense” are you referring to?
Surely conserving the earth is the most conservative policy possible?
I think CCHQ want people to hear "green jobs" but what's actually cut through is banning and taxing stuff as well as vegan signalling from a couple of ministers.
I can believe the former, but I cannot believe for a second that 'vegan signalling' has had any cut through whatsoever.
BTW, there is a famous vegan strip club in Portland, Oregon. (No doubt some close to Boris will wish to do some first-person research?)
One thing I've NOT been able to figure out: are the customers vegan, or the strippers? Or both?
Did you make appropriate enquiries?
Am trying to save up the bus fare to investigate. Which is why I suggested a PB Expeditionary Farce to help finance this quest for knowledge, enlightenment and (dare I say it?) moral & physical uplift
Maybe it would be easier if you became PM and asked a Tory donor to pay? It's the fash.
I am not at all surprised by the closing of the poll gap. Some solid tories (myself included) are not impressed by the events of this week.
I shudder when I think of what Mrs May did in March and April 2019 which shafted the chances of hundreds of good councillor candidates. I hope Boris' personal life hasn't repeated the error.
Time for the backbenches to start having some influence, in my opinion. If he isn't up to the job, time to find a replacement. If he is, he will recognise that it is time for a reshuffle and some proper Conservative policies. Shelving this obsession with Green nonsense would be a good start.
What “Green nonsense” are you referring to?
Surely conserving the earth is the most conservative policy possible?
Conservative leaflets for this round of local elections have gone heavy on climate change but have more in common with the zealotry of XR than a measured and practical response for a brighter tomorrow.
I think CCHQ want people to hear "green jobs" but what's actually cut through is banning and taxing stuff as well as vegan signalling from a couple of ministers.
It's gone down like a cup of cold sick amongst many party members.
"gone down like a cup of cold sick"
This phrase intrigues me, it's virtually unheard in America. Though we get the meaning loud & clear!
Does anyone know the origin?
Monty Python. Is where I first saw it
I remember a rhyme in the 1960s about school dinners. Hot snot and bogie pie. All wrapped up in a dead dog’s eye. Creamy phlegm to make it thick. All washed down with a cup of cold sick.
Any earlier examples, PBers?
Sounds like luxury compared to what I was served up.
You were served? Luxury! We had to get up before dawn, walk 10 miles to scrap the day old roadkill off the motorway
And enjoyed cold pheasant (or was it peasant) on toast!
Only had roadkill at Christmas.
I would have had dead dog eye in a Xmas sock if it hadn’t fallen through the holes.
Went round grans on Sundays and she used to treat us to sugared fruit flies.
Used to chew tar off road.
Sugar with yer flies? Luxury!
We had to catch them first, so she could put them in the fruit cake.
Anyway, this isn’t politics or betting. Shall we talk about how the Tories have slashed foreign aid, will get years of negative coverage for doing it, is it really going to turn into a vote winner?
There must be a reason Thatcher, Major Cameron resisted the calls of the right wing press telling them its an easy sell merely helping India a bit less with their space programme?
Flies? Fruitcake? Luxury! We had to make do with gnats and bath salts!
Great to see signs in the polls of the shine coming off the magnificent man.
But I'm not moved for Hartlepool and neither is the market. Cons 1.6.
It's not entirely fair to you, since you'll deserve all the kudos if you're right, but for all the other usual suspects:
if the Tories win Hartlepool after the entire media have serially unloaded their bowels on Boris, I will NEVER shut up about it...
But what is the point of never shutting up about an odds on favourite winning? Where does mindless cheerleading get you?
Wait a minute, so do today's polls matter or don't they? You presumably think they should affect the odds of the Tories winning Parliamentary seats, otherwise what's the point in discussing them at all? If Boris has now entered a fatal tailspin and is running neck-and-neck with Labour, those odds must be wrong.
Calm down. They matter, but only a tiny bit. They may faintly hint at an inflection in a trend. They are not the reason for thinking we are past peak Boris, they are merely consistent with that view. Hartlepool will be done and dusted before May 26, before the resolution of wallpapergate, before people have had time to process new facts and change minds.
As someone astutely pointed out yesterday you cannot see Black Wednesday in the polling for 1992.
Well, you're the one who requested my personal input on today's polls, so that's exactly what you got.
I'm not sure that last point about 1992 is actually correct - Labour took the lead in the average of all the polls within a few weeks of Black Wednesday and never lost it during that Parliament. By December 1992, they had a 15-point average lead.
Now, perhaps Boris' wallpaper will cause interest rates to hit double digits and have a material impact on people's lives; or perhaps they'll go back to caring about the things that do actually affect them, like the return of all their freedoms and the economy roaring back to life. Who knows?
It's not about the gold wallpaper! That is merely a manifestation of the abuse of power which seems to surround Johnson and his lapdogs. However the revelations this evening from TSE regarding funding of childcare and payments made directly by donors to contractors, if they turn out to be true, are incendiary. You may be correct and Johnson will survive because he is awesome, but you are even having loyal Johnsonians like BigG. raising an eyebrow and questioning what the hell has been going on?
They have - apparently - some 9 million members now (including me). They already have on record all the information they need for those members to make the normal adjustments needed for any reputable BPC poll. I assume they could run algorithms to do this automatically in very short order by computer.
So when it comes to these key political polls do they not simply ask everyone of their members? even if only 1% replied that is still 90,000 responses which would make it a far better poll than anything else normally done by pollsters.
So why do they not do this? Why do they only ask these polling questions of a tiny fraction of their members?
Is their some technical factor that would render such large polls less accurate than one of 2200 people?
90,000 responses would cost them somewhere between £45,000 and £90,000 to the panel that replied as opposed to £1,100 to £2,200 for a normal poll.
No client will pay that for a poll.
YouGov UK's profit for the year ending July 2020 was £15.4m, now YouGov poll every week, they'd be wiping out a lot of profit for little return.
On the MOE calculator the MOE would be something like 0.5 versus 2.
I must admit I am confused as to where the costs lie. I would have thought that with modern computing and given that the whole process is effectively automated, the cost of processing 90,000 responses is tiny and requires little more actual work than processing 2200.
Call me old fashioned. But he turned one two days ago. Isn't this a vital time in a child's bonding and development when he ought to be spending as much time as possible with his mother and father? Whatever. Childcare costs are a huge political issue. Can't afford a nanny is Red Wall sympathy catnip I imagine. We've all been there.
Poor Boris - 'Johnson has told friends that he needs to earn about £300,000 a year — twice his salary — to keep his head above water, while a former No 10 insider said it was “received wisdom” that he is permanently broke.'
I thought a good chunk of conservatism was fiscal responsibility? Why do conservative members not care their figurehead displays none of the prudence the party championed for the last half century?
Extending this I have true blue relatives for whom adultery is a black mark against your character but for Johnson it is never mentioned.
To be fair Boris is a social democrat with a blue rosette, he is the least fiscally conservative Tory leader since Macmillan, certainly as far as spending is concerned.
He is also a social liberal, May was more socially conservative than Boris
That would be the Theresa May that introduced same sex marriage versus the Boris Johnson who used terms like tank topped bum boys?
That would be the xenophobic Theresa May who was responsible for the Windrush scandal?
They have - apparently - some 9 million members now (including me). They already have on record all the information they need for those members to make the normal adjustments needed for any reputable BPC poll. I assume they could run algorithms to do this automatically in very short order by computer.
So when it comes to these key political polls do they not simply ask everyone of their members? even if only 1% replied that is still 90,000 responses which would make it a far better poll than anything else normally done by pollsters.
So why do they not do this? Why do they only ask these polling questions of a tiny fraction of their members?
Is their some technical factor that would render such large polls less accurate than one of 2200 people?
90,000 responses would cost them somewhere between £45,000 and £90,000 to the panel that replied as opposed to £1,100 to £2,200 for a normal poll.
No client will pay that for a poll.
YouGov UK's profit for the year ending July 2020 was £15.4m, now YouGov poll every week, they'd be wiping out a lot of profit for little return.
On the MOE calculator the MOE would be something like 0.5 versus 2.
I must admit I am confused as to where the costs lie. I would have thought that with modern computing and given that the whole process is effectively automated, the cost of processing 90,000 responses is tiny and requires little more actual work than processing 2200.
Every time somebody completes a political poll YouGov gives them 50p or a £1 (dependent on the length of it).
More respondents means more money YouGov have to pay.
BTW, in addition to CD06 special election for US House, also local elections from Sabine Pass to El Paso, from Brownsville to Texhoma. Including:
> an open mayoral race in changing Fort Worth > San Antonio’s mayor vies for reelection with pandemic focus > homeless camping ordinance in the crosshairs in Austin > police collective bargaining at stake in San Antonio > entire Dallas City Council is on the ballot > Lubbock voters to decide on banning abortion in their city and make it the next sanctuary city for the unborn" shortly after Planned Parenthood opened a clinic there > Bernie Sanders has endorsed progressives in two San Antonio races, for city council and school board
Poor Boris - 'Johnson has told friends that he needs to earn about £300,000 a year — twice his salary — to keep his head above water, while a former No 10 insider said it was “received wisdom” that he is permanently broke.'
I thought a good chunk of conservatism was fiscal responsibility? Why do conservative members not care their figurehead displays none of the prudence the party championed for the last half century?
Extending this I have true blue relatives for whom adultery is a black mark against your character but for Johnson it is never mentioned.
To be fair Boris is a social democrat with a blue rosette, he is the least fiscally conservative Tory leader since Macmillan, certainly as far as spending is concerned.
He is also a social liberal, May was more socially conservative than Boris
That would be the Theresa May that introduced same sex marriage versus the Boris Johnson who used terms like tank topped bum boys?
That would be the xenophobic Theresa May who was responsible for the Windrush scandal?
Socially schizophrenic? Would seen to cover both TM and BJ.
Considering Boris gave the Red Wall seamless Brexit and Jabs back to normal, it would be odd if he wasn’t enjoying a bounce and lead in this springs election - comparisons with past probably misleading. Anything like level pegging suggests something about his style counteracts his governments fine delivery?
Also, recent non you gov polling, isn’t great for Labour only if compared will the yougov polling.
Great to see signs in the polls of the shine coming off the magnificent man.
But I'm not moved for Hartlepool and neither is the market. Cons 1.6.
It's not entirely fair to you, since you'll deserve all the kudos if you're right, but for all the other usual suspects:
if the Tories win Hartlepool after the entire media have serially unloaded their bowels on Boris, I will NEVER shut up about it...
But what is the point of never shutting up about an odds on favourite winning? Where does mindless cheerleading get you?
Wait a minute, so do today's polls matter or don't they? You presumably think they should affect the odds of the Tories winning Parliamentary seats, otherwise what's the point in discussing them at all? If Boris has now entered a fatal tailspin and is running neck-and-neck with Labour, those odds must be wrong.
Calm down. They matter, but only a tiny bit. They may faintly hint at an inflection in a trend. They are not the reason for thinking we are past peak Boris, they are merely consistent with that view. Hartlepool will be done and dusted before May 26, before the resolution of wallpapergate, before people have had time to process new facts and change minds.
As someone astutely pointed out yesterday you cannot see Black Wednesday in the polling for 1992.
Well, you're the one who requested my personal input on today's polls, so that's exactly what you got.
I'm not sure that last point about 1992 is actually correct - Labour took the lead in the average of all the polls within a few weeks of Black Wednesday and never lost it during that Parliament. By December 1992, they had a 15-point average lead.
Now, perhaps Boris' wallpaper will cause interest rates to hit double digits and have a material impact on people's lives; or perhaps they'll go back to caring about the things that do actually affect them, like the return of all their freedoms and the economy roaring back to life. Who knows?
A very weak false dichotomy. It isn't wallpaper vs "all their freedoms", it's about being governed by the corrupt and dishonest (if that is what people decide is happening). The two things are equally fundamental.
I've had two through the door. They mention climate change a lot.
It's the mood music and what underlies it that worries people.
People will vote for it if it makes their lives better. If it entails lots of sacrifices, taxes and restrictions then they will tell them to get stuffed, regardless of what they tell pollsters now.
It's interesting politics. The Tory core vote hates it passionately. Maybe it appeals to the more middle of the road types, its hard to tell. I suspect it turns as many off as it gains.
The problem for those who think this is unbounded stupidity is that this is the political concensus. There is no serious alternative party to the green/vegan/woke lunacy currently being rammed down our throats - the best we can do is to sit on our hands, which doesn't show up nearly as clearly in the results. We need a UKIP type force which allows us to register our disapproval by eating into the Tory vote in the same way that UKIP's ever growing vote set in motion our path out of the EU, against the wishes of almost every front-bench politican from every party.
I'm quite surprised Farrage isn't making the running on this - he'd be well placed to do so, there is a substantial overlap between being a Brexiter and not being into eco nonsense, with potential for a strong sideswipe at continuing social distancing/mask wear etc after the pandemic has obviously run its course. He also knows a thing or two about how to launch a "pressure group" party from scratch. If he couldn't knock 10% off the Tories poll lead a month after launch I'd probably be willing to fry and eat my flat cap. Maybe he believes in green hair-shirtism, or feels its someone else's turn to shake up British politics.
Great to see signs in the polls of the shine coming off the magnificent man.
But I'm not moved for Hartlepool and neither is the market. Cons 1.6.
It's not entirely fair to you, since you'll deserve all the kudos if you're right, but for all the other usual suspects:
if the Tories win Hartlepool after the entire media have serially unloaded their bowels on Boris, I will NEVER shut up about it...
But what is the point of never shutting up about an odds on favourite winning? Where does mindless cheerleading get you?
Wait a minute, so do today's polls matter or don't they? You presumably think they should affect the odds of the Tories winning Parliamentary seats, otherwise what's the point in discussing them at all? If Boris has now entered a fatal tailspin and is running neck-and-neck with Labour, those odds must be wrong.
Calm down. They matter, but only a tiny bit. They may faintly hint at an inflection in a trend. They are not the reason for thinking we are past peak Boris, they are merely consistent with that view. Hartlepool will be done and dusted before May 26, before the resolution of wallpapergate, before people have had time to process new facts and change minds.
As someone astutely pointed out yesterday you cannot see Black Wednesday in the polling for 1992.
Well, you're the one who requested my personal input on today's polls, so that's exactly what you got.
I'm not sure that last point about 1992 is actually correct - Labour took the lead in the average of all the polls within a few weeks of Black Wednesday and never lost it during that Parliament. By December 1992, they had a 15-point average lead.
Now, perhaps Boris' wallpaper will cause interest rates to hit double digits and have a material impact on people's lives; or perhaps they'll go back to caring about the things that do actually affect them, like the return of all their freedoms and the economy roaring back to life. Who knows?
A very weak false dichotomy. It isn't wallpaper vs "all their freedoms", it's about being governed by the corrupt and dishonest (if that is what people decide is happening). The two things are equally fundamental.
I’m sure cash for curtains isn’t cutting through with red wall Brexit types. It’s not like a massive taxpayer money grab or taxpayer money waste. And it’s impossible extrapolate that one story to a whole sleazy party on the take so it matters more than Brexit delivery or vaccination programme. There will be a clear Tory bounce in these elections.
I’m thinking there is something else at play. Boris as a PM as a drag on the polling and votes of his government. He did win a huge majority being himself, take and hold London too, but voters have now watched him in the job for a lot longer, and needn’t fear Labour in the same way as they did at the GE.
IMO this government is neither sleazy nor hapless, I think Boris becoming a drag on the sort of polling it could be enjoying.
Cummings advice to him was right. You are putting yourself in the share price shredding place where you can’t properly answer fair enough questions.
Great to see signs in the polls of the shine coming off the magnificent man.
But I'm not moved for Hartlepool and neither is the market. Cons 1.6.
It's not entirely fair to you, since you'll deserve all the kudos if you're right, but for all the other usual suspects:
if the Tories win Hartlepool after the entire media have serially unloaded their bowels on Boris, I will NEVER shut up about it...
But what is the point of never shutting up about an odds on favourite winning? Where does mindless cheerleading get you?
Wait a minute, so do today's polls matter or don't they? You presumably think they should affect the odds of the Tories winning Parliamentary seats, otherwise what's the point in discussing them at all? If Boris has now entered a fatal tailspin and is running neck-and-neck with Labour, those odds must be wrong.
Calm down. They matter, but only a tiny bit. They may faintly hint at an inflection in a trend. They are not the reason for thinking we are past peak Boris, they are merely consistent with that view. Hartlepool will be done and dusted before May 26, before the resolution of wallpapergate, before people have had time to process new facts and change minds.
As someone astutely pointed out yesterday you cannot see Black Wednesday in the polling for 1992.
Another county heard from - votes reported from Tarrant Co + Ellis Co
Candidates with at least 4% of total reported
Jake Ellzey Republican 6,731 15.64%
Susan Wright Republican 6,594 15.32
Jana Lynne Sanchez Democrat 6,143 14.27
Brian Harrison Republican 5,274 12.25
Shawn Lassiter Democrat 3,856 8.96
Tammy Allison Democrat 2,390 5.55
John Castro Republican 2,095 4.87
Lydia Bean Democrat 1,751 4.07
Note - clear that no one will get majority tonight, so top two advance to runoff later this month.
Further note that multiple Republicans fractionate the GOP vote, but similar phenomena on Democratic side risks having no Dem in final Top Two.
Another note - Susan Wright is widow of ex-Congressman; Jake Ellzey was social aide to Trumpsky White House and lost GOP nomination in 2020; Jana Sanchez was 2020 Democratic nominee; Shawn Lassiter is endorsed by Bernie Sanders.
By county, Sanchez 1st in Tarrant early returns, followed by Wright in 2nd and Ellzey in 3rd; in Ellis, Ellzey is 1st, Wright 2nd, Sanchez 3rd; still no returns from Navarro.
TX CD06 is a three horse race tonight, with Bernie's nag a spoiler and the rest of the field (Dem & Rep) also too far back to do anything but impede the ponies at the head of the pack.
IANAL and have no idea about the legal case, but the charge that Boris is using government announcements to spread party propaganda has also been raised against the SNP. And many Conservative planted questions at PMQs sounded more like electioneering than attempts to hold the executive to account, especially where the questioner stumbled over names but Boris did not. Even the Speaker suggested Boris could answer a question that went unheard because a Tory MP could not unmute herself. https://youtu.be/gzNAeFSqOyI?t=62s
FYI, former WWE wrestler and 2020 Nevada congressional candidate Dan Rodimer currently has garnered 1,171 votes (2.6%) in CD06, and is in 11th place out of 23 candidates on the ballot today.
PBers may be interested to know the views of leading candidates in TX CD06 on the the Heligoland Question:
> Susan Wright (R) "I do not want anyone to go to Hell, on land or sea."
> Jake Ellzey (R) "I stand 1000% behind President Trump and his outstanding progress in resolving this important international issue in the American interest."
> Jana Lynne Sanchez (D) "I am running because I believe in family wage jobs, cheaper prescription drugs, expanded unemployment relief, and President Biden's infrastructure program, which no doubt will be a bridge connecting Heligoland to the future.
> Shawn Lassiter (D) "Justice for all means justice for Heligoland and it's diverse but oppressed population. I will fight alongside Bernie and AOC to liberate the Heligolanders from the shackles of the oppressors who are currently oppressing them so oppressively.
I've had two through the door. They mention climate change a lot.
It's the mood music and what underlies it that worries people.
People will vote for it if it makes their lives better. If it entails lots of sacrifices, taxes and restrictions then they will tell them to get stuffed, regardless of what they tell pollsters now.
It's interesting politics. The Tory core vote hates it passionately. Maybe it appeals to the more middle of the road types, its hard to tell. I suspect it turns as many off as it gains.
The problem for those who think this is unbounded stupidity is that this is the political concensus. There is no serious alternative party to the green/vegan/woke lunacy currently being rammed down our throats - the best we can do is to sit on our hands, which doesn't show up nearly as clearly in the results. We need a UKIP type force which allows us to register our disapproval by eating into the Tory vote in the same way that UKIP's ever growing vote set in motion our path out of the EU, against the wishes of almost every front-bench politican from every party.
I'm quite surprised Farrage isn't making the running on this - he'd be well placed to do so, there is a substantial overlap between being a Brexiter and not being into eco nonsense, with potential for a strong sideswipe at continuing social distancing/mask wear etc after the pandemic has obviously run its course. He also knows a thing or two about how to launch a "pressure group" party from scratch. If he couldn't knock 10% off the Tories poll lead a month after launch I'd probably be willing to fry and eat my flat cap. Maybe he believes in green hair-shirtism, or feels its someone else's turn to shake up British politics.
The Green madness that stops you from buying a car with a petrol engine? The Green madness that prevents you from buying a steak or a McDonalds?
What Green madness?
The UK offers some fairly modest tax benefits for cutting down your carbon consumption. But you know what, even if global warming wasn't a thing, they would still be a good idea, because they'd reduce our dependence on foreigners who don't like us very much. Minimising the amount of British pounds shipped off the Middle East to buy oil sounds like quite a sensible strategy, irrespective of whether global warming is real or not.
And for all the talk of woke, I struggle to see any actual "woke" in my actual life.
The sum total of people who have asked me to call the by an obscure pronoun is... ummmm... none. I read more about woke on-line, and here people bewailing it, but the reality is that outside the fevered imagination of Meghan, it doesn't really exist for 99% of people. But you know what, if someone said to me, please call me "she" I'd do it anyway. That's not woke, that's common courtesy, just as I'd call someone Moon Unit, if that was what they wanted to be called.
And vegans? They exist. So what? In my 46 years on Planet Earth, exactly one person (a rather attractive young German lady) has ever prostheliyzed veganism. Which led me to say "show me a man who's a vegan, and I'll show you a man who's trying to shag a vegan". Suffice to say, it didn't go down well.
It seems that you (and Farage these days as well) like railing against a threat that doesn't really exist.
Think new votes all from Tarrant. Which means it is NOT looking good for Sanchez or the Democrats. Meaning that May 24th runoff will likely be between Republicans Wright and Ellzey.
More votes in from Ellis, methinks (am working on something else). Gap between 2nd & 3rd now just over 700, with not too many votes yet from Navarro where in early returns had Wright 1st, Ellzey 2nd, Sanchez 3rd by a longshot.
Susan Wright << AP: "advances to runoff" Republican 13,020 18.4%
Jake Ellzey Republican 10,083 14.2
Jana Lynne Sanchez Democrat 9,627 13.6
Brian Harrison Republican 7,874 11.1
Shawn Lassiter Democrat 6,385 9.0
Sanchez now - 456 behind Ellzey
NYT says Navarro now 100% counted, Ellis 98%, Tarrant 92% thus still possible that Sanchez MIGHT swap places with Ellzey to make the cut for the runoff along with Wright.
Believe word that the DM journo is searching for is "putsch". Or rather, attempted putsch as Starmer's problem, at least at the moment, is NOT that he's too moderate, but rather too boring. And not in a soothing Uncle Joe sorta way.
I've had two through the door. They mention climate change a lot.
It's the mood music and what underlies it that worries people.
People will vote for it if it makes their lives better. If it entails lots of sacrifices, taxes and restrictions then they will tell them to get stuffed, regardless of what they tell pollsters now.
It's interesting politics. The Tory core vote hates it passionately. Maybe it appeals to the more middle of the road types, its hard to tell. I suspect it turns as many off as it gains.
The problem for those who think this is unbounded stupidity is that this is the political concensus. There is no serious alternative party to the green/vegan/woke lunacy currently being rammed down our throats - the best we can do is to sit on our hands, which doesn't show up nearly as clearly in the results. We need a UKIP type force which allows us to register our disapproval by eating into the Tory vote in the same way that UKIP's ever growing vote set in motion our path out of the EU, against the wishes of almost every front-bench politican from every party.
I'm quite surprised Farrage isn't making the running on this - he'd be well placed to do so, there is a substantial overlap between being a Brexiter and not being into eco nonsense, with potential for a strong sideswipe at continuing social distancing/mask wear etc after the pandemic has obviously run its course. He also knows a thing or two about how to launch a "pressure group" party from scratch. If he couldn't knock 10% off the Tories poll lead a month after launch I'd probably be willing to fry and eat my flat cap. Maybe he believes in green hair-shirtism, or feels its someone else's turn to shake up British politics.
What is the Tory core vote.... is it the over 50s, white small town/shires voter (probbaly male)...? I struggle to identify what this core is -perhaps an indicator as to what a powerful GOTV machine they possess, 2019 saw a Tory victory based on an unprecedented coalition not seen since 1997 or 1983 it wont be repeated in a hurry and I am not sure whipping up a culture war against the environmental agenda will keep it together. CCHQ probably keep a close eye on NF as he is a fantastic barometer for my (simplistic) core Tory......
IF it transpires, that Jake Ellzey makes the runoff along with Susan Wright, then it will be 2nd time in just over a year that he has run against a Wright; against Ron Wright in March 2020 primary, and against Susan Wright in May 2020 runoff.
Should this be the scenario, then my fearless prediction is that once again Wright will triummph.
Why? Because Democrats who bother to show up for the runoff (and many will) will break for Wright and help put her over the top. Despite the fact that she's endorsed by Trumpsky. Cause she is the widow, not a flaming nutbag (relatively speaking) whereas her opponent is more that way AND has the lean & hungry look of an apparatchik on the make.
Plus think the robocalls accusing Susan Wright of murdering her husband for political gain are HELPING her (though they've stopped I'm guessing) today and for the remainder of the merry month of May.
Nearly 500 more votes reported, and Sanchez has closed the gap a bit, to within 362 but no clue how many remaining. AP has NOT called this yet, except that Wright is clearly in the runoff.
Poor Boris - 'Johnson has told friends that he needs to earn about £300,000 a year — twice his salary — to keep his head above water, while a former No 10 insider said it was “received wisdom” that he is permanently broke.'
They have - apparently - some 9 million members now (including me). They already have on record all the information they need for those members to make the normal adjustments needed for any reputable BPC poll. I assume they could run algorithms to do this automatically in very short order by computer.
So when it comes to these key political polls do they not simply ask everyone of their members? even if only 1% replied that is still 90,000 responses which would make it a far better poll than anything else normally done by pollsters.
So why do they not do this? Why do they only ask these polling questions of a tiny fraction of their members?
Is their some technical factor that would render such large polls less accurate than one of 2200 people?
I have wondered this myself.
My own completely unsupported guess is that they feel the experiment might change the outcome. Most people don’t think about how they will vote very often. Imagine being asked about it every week or two. Those being asked might start thinking about politics more often and become unrepresentative.
Also, you could make the same point another any other poll they do, and it isn’t realistic to ask everybody about everything all the time. They are a business, selling their wares, and each respondent costs them £5. Since costs are pro-rata to poll size, it would be bad business to hugely increase their costs for a marginal benefit (outside a GE when the MRP does just that).
The second is likely the real reason, but the first is the more interesting.
I am not at all surprised by the closing of the poll gap. Some solid tories (myself included) are not impressed by the events of this week.
I shudder when I think of what Mrs May did in March and April 2019 which shafted the chances of hundreds of good councillor candidates. I hope Boris' personal life hasn't repeated the error.
Time for the backbenches to start having some influence, in my opinion. If he isn't up to the job, time to find a replacement. If he is, he will recognise that it is time for a reshuffle and some proper Conservative policies. Shelving this obsession with Green nonsense would be a good start.
What “Green nonsense” are you referring to?
Surely conserving the earth is the most conservative policy possible?
Conservative leaflets for this round of local elections have gone heavy on climate change but have more in common with the zealotry of XR than a measured and practical response for a brighter tomorrow.
I think CCHQ want people to hear "green jobs" but what's actually cut through is banning and taxing stuff as well as vegan signalling from a couple of ministers.
It's gone down like a cup of cold sick amongst many party members.
"gone down like a cup of cold sick"
This phrase intrigues me, it's virtually unheard in America. Though we get the meaning loud & clear!
Does anyone know the origin?
Monty Python. Is where I first saw it
I remember a rhyme in the 1960s about school dinners. Hot snot and bogie pie. All wrapped up in a dead dog’s eye. Creamy phlegm to make it thick. All washed down with a cup of cold sick.
Any earlier examples, PBers?
Sounds like luxury compared to what I was served up.
You were served? Luxury! We had to get up before dawn, walk 10 miles to scrap the day old roadkill off the motorway
I dread to think what the four Yorkshiremen were served for school dinners!
When I was in the 6th grade, the rumor was that our school cafeteria was putting saltpeter in the food to curb our adolescent sex drive. (Most of us didn't know what saltpeter was, but the name was certainly suggestive AND suspicious.)
No doubt true - but it did NOT work!
Off top my head, gunpowder? And that’s supposed to stop the banging?
A component - potassium nitrate. The old name means ‘salt of the rock’(from the Latin sal petrae).
‘Peter’ was also old slang for penis (see Shakespeare), evidently still around in the US of Shanty’s youth....
Believe word that the DM journo is searching for is "putsch". Or rather, attempted putsch as Starmer's problem, at least at the moment, is NOT that he's too moderate, but rather too boring. And not in a soothing Uncle Joe sorta way.
There’s something buttoned up and inauthentic about Starmer (a perception which might be unfair, but it’s certainly how he comes across). Simply impossible to say that about the meanderingly loquacious Biden.
Great to see signs in the polls of the shine coming off the magnificent man.
But I'm not moved for Hartlepool and neither is the market. Cons 1.6.
It's not entirely fair to you, since you'll deserve all the kudos if you're right, but for all the other usual suspects:
if the Tories win Hartlepool after the entire media have serially unloaded their bowels on Boris, I will NEVER shut up about it...
But what is the point of never shutting up about an odds on favourite winning? Where does mindless cheerleading get you?
Wait a minute, so do today's polls matter or don't they? You presumably think they should affect the odds of the Tories winning Parliamentary seats, otherwise what's the point in discussing them at all? If Boris has now entered a fatal tailspin and is running neck-and-neck with Labour, those odds must be wrong.
Calm down. They matter, but only a tiny bit. They may faintly hint at an inflection in a trend. They are not the reason for thinking we are past peak Boris, they are merely consistent with that view. Hartlepool will be done and dusted before May 26, before the resolution of wallpapergate, before people have had time to process new facts and change minds.
As someone astutely pointed out yesterday you cannot see Black Wednesday in the polling for 1992.
Well, you're the one who requested my personal input on today's polls, so that's exactly what you got.
I'm not sure that last point about 1992 is actually correct - Labour took the lead in the average of all the polls within a few weeks of Black Wednesday and never lost it during that Parliament. By December 1992, they had a 15-point average lead.
Now, perhaps Boris' wallpaper will cause interest rates to hit double digits and have a material impact on people's lives; or perhaps they'll go back to caring about the things that do actually affect them, like the return of all their freedoms and the economy roaring back to life. Who knows?
Taking your argument to the absurd - Musolini got the trains running on time, so the other stuff he did was ok then?
They have - apparently - some 9 million members now (including me). They already have on record all the information they need for those members to make the normal adjustments needed for any reputable BPC poll. I assume they could run algorithms to do this automatically in very short order by computer.
So when it comes to these key political polls do they not simply ask everyone of their members? even if only 1% replied that is still 90,000 responses which would make it a far better poll than anything else normally done by pollsters.
So why do they not do this? Why do they only ask these polling questions of a tiny fraction of their members?
Is their some technical factor that would render such large polls less accurate than one of 2200 people?
Why should anyone panic. Few give a shit about Scots Independence because it isn't going to happen anytime soon. Its a bit like Labour believing they xcan win outright at the next G E.
And yet BJ’s mouthpiece thinks he’s panicking.
'Fears SNP could launch independence bid immediately Several Cabinet ministers and senior figures close to Mr Johnson this weekend privately expressed their grave fears at the prospect of a big win for Ms Sturgeon who – Downing Street sources fear – could try to order a new independence referendum as soon as the result is announced.
A senior source said that the result was likely to be "bloody awful" in Scotland.
One minister said that the SNP were viewing Thursday’s vote as “a referendum on a referendum. There is no room for complacency. We are in a bare knuckle fight.”
Another Cabinet minister privately advocated voting for other unionist parties than the Conservatives to see off the SNP threat. They said people should "vote for parties that will save the Union and avoid Scotland going into the chaos of economic uncertainty at a time when we have to build back better under Covid".'
Perhaps - and its only an idea - the Tories could have retained more seats had they not sold out Scottish brexit-voting fishing communities. There is a reason that the farmer's big ScotCon boards keep having SCUM spray-painted on them...
I believe the approved BJ loyalist line now is that fisher folk were fucking fools for believing BJ and should have known that they were naught but pawns to be sacrificed. If only someone had tried to warn them that this would happen..
None of them represent fishing port constituencies at Holyood, they are all elected on the list for the vast North East region. Every Scottish region has at least 2 Tory list MSPs and most have 3 and 4 so your point is irrelevant
If the MSPs elected to the North East region do not represent the people in the North East region then what do you think they represent?
Happy to remove them if you don't want them. You do understand that at least a couple of these Tory seats will go Green don't you? Thats -2 for the union and +2 for independence.
Only votes for SNP and Alba MSPs therefore count as independence votes and on some current polls the SNP could even lose seats next week.
Not that it matters as we Tories are the UK government and we will refuse indyref2 anyway and Union matters are reserved to Westminster, though fewer SNP MSPs will make it easier when we do refuse indyref2
BTW your disdain for - and ignorance of - democracy is why those Tory MSPs you don't think exist will lose their seats.
Who cares, it is what Green voters think that matters and they now oppose independence which we Tories will respect when we refuse indyref2 and refuse any change to the Union for the rest of our time in office
When people ask me "Alistair, why do you say HYUFD is a tedious bore who obsessively clings to the result of a single poll that supports his position in the face of overwhelming counter evidence" this is the one I will point at.
Good Law Project is having considerable success, and this despite an obstructive government which can afford indefinite amounts for lawyers to represent it. See https://goodlawproject.org/news/
Believe word that the DM journo is searching for is "putsch". Or rather, attempted putsch as Starmer's problem, at least at the moment, is NOT that he's too moderate, but rather too boring. And not in a soothing Uncle Joe sorta way.
There’s something buttoned up and inauthentic about Starmer (a perception which might be unfair, but it’s certainly how he comes across). Simply impossible to say that about the meanderingly loquacious Biden.
And even when Biden is creepy, he is authentically creepy
Comments
No doubt true - but it did NOT work!
I would have had dead dog eye in a Xmas sock if it hadn’t fallen through the holes.
Went round grans on Sundays and she used to treat us to sugared fruit flies.
Used to chew tar off road.
He's a Lib Dem now.
In the absence of opposition the tories have created their own opposition. I just hope that the current position of the big two continue the revival of the orange-bookers.
There's a well-researched scientific case for less meat production, though, advanced by report like EAT:Lancet which have no interest whatever in animal welfare. Briefly, current levels of consumption generate demand for intensive farms, which depend on massive grain imports, typically as a result of forest clearances in South America. It's generally accepted by scientists that this can't go on indefinitely. It doesn't mean you can't eat meat, but reduction is a helpful idea. If the reduction takes the form of focusing on higher-welfare meat, typically grass-fed, so much the better. The Tories are well up on this, to be fair, and it's presumably their publications on the issue that have annoyed Philip.
Always new HMRC couldn't count...
https://www.crowdjustice.com/case/feathering-party-nest/?utm_source=CrowdJustice&utm_campaign=27afdd1e1f-NO10APRIL2021&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_7304756a43-27afdd1e1f-169782313
I'm not sure that last point about 1992 is actually correct - Labour took the lead in the average of all the polls within a few weeks of Black Wednesday and never lost it during that Parliament. By December 1992, they had a 15-point average lead.
Now, perhaps Boris' wallpaper will cause interest rates to hit double digits and have a material impact on people's lives; or perhaps they'll go back to caring about the things that do actually affect them, like the return of all their freedoms and the economy roaring back to life. Who knows?
Not everyone is unhappy.
Anyway, this isn’t politics or betting. Shall we talk about how the Tories have slashed foreign aid, will get years of negative coverage for doing it, is it really going to turn into a vote winner?
There must be a reason Thatcher, Major Cameron resisted the calls of the right wing press telling them its an easy sell merely helping India a bit less with their space programme?
It's the fash.
But he turned one two days ago. Isn't this a vital time in a child's bonding and development when he ought to be spending as much time as possible with his mother and father?
Whatever. Childcare costs are a huge political issue.
Can't afford a nanny is Red Wall sympathy catnip I imagine. We've all been there.
More respondents means more money YouGov have to pay.
BTW, in addition to CD06 special election for US House, also local elections from Sabine Pass to El Paso, from Brownsville to Texhoma. Including:
> an open mayoral race in changing Fort Worth
> San Antonio’s mayor vies for reelection with pandemic focus
> homeless camping ordinance in the crosshairs in Austin
> police collective bargaining at stake in San Antonio
> entire Dallas City Council is on the ballot
> Lubbock voters to decide on banning abortion in their city and make it the next sanctuary city for the unborn" shortly after Planned Parenthood opened a clinic there
> Bernie Sanders has endorsed progressives in two San Antonio races, for city council and school board
https://www.texastribune.org/2021/04/30/texas-local-elections-may-1/
Note that election officials in CD06 counties have MORE to count than just votes for US House.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/1388632094797176839
The changes since the last Panelbase poll which was not for the Sunday Times are
Yes +1%
No - 3%
Also, recent non you gov polling, isn’t great for Labour only if compared will the yougov polling.
The problem for those who think this is unbounded stupidity is that this is the political concensus. There is no serious alternative party to the green/vegan/woke lunacy currently being rammed down our throats - the best we can do is to sit on our hands, which doesn't show up nearly as clearly in the results. We need a UKIP type force which allows us to register our disapproval by eating into the Tory vote in the same way that UKIP's ever growing vote set in motion our path out of the EU, against the wishes of almost every front-bench politican from every party.
I'm quite surprised Farrage isn't making the running on this - he'd be well placed to do so, there is a substantial overlap between being a Brexiter and not being into eco nonsense, with potential for a strong sideswipe at continuing social distancing/mask wear etc after the pandemic has obviously run its course. He also knows a thing or two about how to launch a "pressure group" party from scratch. If he couldn't knock 10% off the Tories poll lead a month after launch I'd probably be willing to fry and eat my flat cap. Maybe he believes in green hair-shirtism, or feels its someone else's turn to shake up British politics.
DEEP IN THE HEART OF TEXAS
by Don Swander & June Hershey (performed by Bob Wills and His Texas Playboys)
The stars at night are big and bright
Deep in the heart of Texas
The prairie sky is wide and high
Deep in the heart of Texas
The sage in bloom is like perfume
Deep in the heart of Texas
Reminds me of the one I love
Deep in the heart of Texas
The coyotes wail along the trail
Deep in the heart of Texas
The rabbits rush around the brush
Deep in the heart of Texas
The cowboys cry k'ai yippee y'ai
Deep in the heart of Texas
The dawgies bawl and bawl and bawl
Deep in the heart of Texas
Bob Wills & His Texas Playboys "Deep In The Heart Of Texas"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OI9JGBoQF8M
FYI - Bob Wills was the Father of Western Swing, one of the true greats of country (and western) music.
I’m thinking there is something else at play. Boris as a PM as a drag on the polling and votes of his government. He did win a huge majority being himself, take and hold London too, but voters have now watched him in the job for a lot longer, and needn’t fear Labour in the same way as they did at the GE.
IMO this government is neither sleazy nor hapless, I think Boris becoming a drag on the sort of polling it could be enjoying.
Cummings advice to him was right. You are putting yourself in the share price shredding place where you can’t properly answer fair enough questions.
Time for Rishi.
Candidates with at least 1% of total reported
Jana Lynne Sanchez
Democrat
5,059 16.4%
Susan Wright
Republican
4,544 14.7
Shawn Lassiter
Democrat
3,469 11.2
Jake Ellzey
Republican
3,114 10.1
Brian Harrison
Republican
2,718 8.8
Tammy Allison
Democrat
2,306 7.5
John Castro
Republican
1,907 6.2
Lydia Bean
Democrat
1,432 4.6
Michael Ballantine
Republican
1,290 4.2
Dan Rodimer
Republican
914 3.0
Daryl Eddings
Democrat
818 2.6
Michael Wood
Republican
818 2.6
Patrick Moses
Democrat
653 2.1
Mike Egan
Republican
597 1.9
Manuel Salazar
Democrat
352 1.1
Candidates with at least 4% of total reported
Jake Ellzey Republican 6,731 15.64%
Susan Wright Republican 6,594 15.32
Jana Lynne Sanchez Democrat 6,143 14.27
Brian Harrison Republican 5,274 12.25
Shawn Lassiter Democrat 3,856 8.96
Tammy Allison Democrat 2,390 5.55
John Castro Republican 2,095 4.87
Lydia Bean Democrat 1,751 4.07
Note - clear that no one will get majority tonight, so top two advance to runoff later this month.
Further note that multiple Republicans fractionate the GOP vote, but similar phenomena on Democratic side risks having no Dem in final Top Two.
Another note - Susan Wright is widow of ex-Congressman; Jake Ellzey was social aide to Trumpsky White House and lost GOP nomination in 2020; Jana Sanchez was 2020 Democratic nominee; Shawn Lassiter is endorsed by Bernie Sanders.
https://youtu.be/gzNAeFSqOyI?t=62s
As for Sanchez, she now trails both Wright and Ellzey by just under 700 votes. She MUST get a good bump out of Tarrant IF she's gonna make the runoff.
Susan Wright Republican 7,110 15.73%
Jake Ellzey Republican 7,100 15.71
Jana Lynne Sanchez Democrat 6,332 14.01
Brian Harrison Republican 5,788 12.81
Shawn Lassiter Democrat 3,906 8.64
> Susan Wright (R) "I do not want anyone to go to Hell, on land or sea."
> Jake Ellzey (R) "I stand 1000% behind President Trump and his outstanding progress in resolving this important international issue in the American interest."
> Jana Lynne Sanchez (D) "I am running because I believe in family wage jobs, cheaper prescription drugs, expanded unemployment relief, and President Biden's infrastructure program, which no doubt will be a bridge connecting Heligoland to the future.
> Shawn Lassiter (D) "Justice for all means justice for Heligoland and it's diverse but oppressed population. I will fight alongside Bernie and AOC to liberate the Heligolanders from the shackles of the oppressors who are currently oppressing them so oppressively.
The Green madness that prevents you from buying a steak or a McDonalds?
What Green madness?
The UK offers some fairly modest tax benefits for cutting down your carbon consumption. But you know what, even if global warming wasn't a thing, they would still be a good idea, because they'd reduce our dependence on foreigners who don't like us very much. Minimising the amount of British pounds shipped off the Middle East to buy oil sounds like quite a sensible strategy, irrespective of whether global warming is real or not.
And for all the talk of woke, I struggle to see any actual "woke" in my actual life.
The sum total of people who have asked me to call the by an obscure pronoun is... ummmm... none. I read more about woke on-line, and here people bewailing it, but the reality is that outside the fevered imagination of Meghan, it doesn't really exist for 99% of people. But you know what, if someone said to me, please call me "she" I'd do it anyway. That's not woke, that's common courtesy, just as I'd call someone Moon Unit, if that was what they wanted to be called.
And vegans? They exist. So what? In my 46 years on Planet Earth, exactly one person (a rather attractive young German lady) has ever prostheliyzed veganism. Which led me to say "show me a man who's a vegan, and I'll show you a man who's trying to shag a vegan". Suffice to say, it didn't go down well.
It seems that you (and Farage these days as well) like railing against a threat that doesn't really exist.
Susan Wright
Republican
8,257 16.2%
Jake Ellzey
Republican
7,487 14.7
Jana Lynne Sanchez
Democrat
7,200 14.1
Brian Harrison
Republican
6,007 11.8
Shawn Lassiter
Democrat
4,652 9.1
Think new votes all from Tarrant. Which means it is NOT looking good for Sanchez or the Democrats. Meaning that May 24th runoff will likely be between Republicans Wright and Ellzey.
Republican
9,466 17.2%
Jake Ellzey
Republican
8,364 15.2
Jana Lynne Sanchez
Democrat
7,630 13.8
Brian Harrison
Republican
6,570 11.9
Shawn Lassiter
Democrat
4,908 8.9
More votes in from Ellis, methinks (am working on something else). Gap between 2nd & 3rd now just over 700, with not too many votes yet from Navarro where in early returns had Wright 1st, Ellzey 2nd, Sanchez 3rd by a longshot.
Republican
13,020 18.4%
Jake Ellzey
Republican
10,083 14.2
Jana Lynne Sanchez
Democrat
9,627 13.6
Brian Harrison
Republican
7,874 11.1
Shawn Lassiter
Democrat
6,385 9.0
Sanchez now - 456 behind Ellzey
NYT says Navarro now 100% counted, Ellis 98%, Tarrant 92% thus still possible that Sanchez MIGHT swap places with Ellzey to make the cut for the runoff along with Wright.
Republican
13,893 18.9%
Jake Ellzey
Republican
10,402 14.2
Jana Lynne Sanchez
Democrat
9,816 13.4
Brian Harrison
Republican
8,280 11.3
Gap between Ellzey & Sanchez now 386 votes.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9533513/Sir-Keir-Starmer-faces-hard-Left-coup-fails-revive-Labours-fortunes.html
Wright 8,006
Ellzey 4,283
Sanchez 7,603
Ellis
Wright 4,498
Ellzey 5,431
Sanchez 1,835
Navarro
Wright 1,389
Ellzey 688
Sanchez 378
Republican
13,893 18.9%
Jake Ellzey
Republican
10,402 14.2
Jana Lynne Sanchez
Democrat
9,816 13.4
Brian Harrison
Republican
8,280 11.3
Total reported
73,470
Ellzey versus Sanchez now 586; she needs strong showing from remaining Tarrant ballots.
Should this be the scenario, then my fearless prediction is that once again Wright will triummph.
Why? Because Democrats who bother to show up for the runoff (and many will) will break for Wright and help put her over the top. Despite the fact that she's endorsed by Trumpsky. Cause she is the widow, not a flaming nutbag (relatively speaking) whereas her opponent is more that way AND has the lean & hungry look of an apparatchik on the make.
Plus think the robocalls accusing Susan Wright of murdering her husband for political gain are HELPING her (though they've stopped I'm guessing) today and for the remainder of the merry month of May.
Republican
15,020 19.2%
Jake Ellzey
Republican
10,842 13.9
Jana Lynne Sanchez
Democrat
10,476 13.4
Brian Harrison
Republican
8,474 10.8
Total reported
78,204
Nearly 500 more votes reported, and Sanchez has closed the gap a bit, to within 362 but no clue how many remaining. AP has NOT called this yet, except that Wright is clearly in the runoff.
Voters don’t like it when politicians behave as if they can do what they like. Hubris felled May, it will fell the clown.
My own completely unsupported guess is that they feel the experiment might change the outcome. Most people don’t think about how they will vote very often. Imagine being asked about it every week or two. Those being asked might start thinking about politics more often and become unrepresentative.
Also, you could make the same point another any other poll they do, and it isn’t realistic to ask everybody about everything all the time. They are a business, selling their wares, and each respondent costs them £5. Since costs are pro-rata to poll size, it would be bad business to hugely increase their costs for a marginal benefit (outside a GE when the MRP does just that).
The second is likely the real reason, but the first is the more interesting.
The old name means ‘salt of the rock’(from the Latin sal petrae).
‘Peter’ was also old slang for penis (see Shakespeare), evidently still around in the US of Shanty’s youth....
See https://goodlawproject.org/news/