The prime minister approaches truth the way a toddler handles broccoli. He understands the idea that it contains some goodness, but it will touch his lips only if a higher authority compels it there. Everyone who has worked with him in journalism and politics describes a pattern of selfishness and unreliability. He craves affection and demands loyalty, but lacks the qualities that would cultivate proper friendship. The public bonhomie hides a private streak of brooding paranoia. Being incapable of faithfulness, he presumes others are just as ready to betray him, which they duly do, provoked by his duplicity.
Johnson is driven by a restless sense of his own entitlement to be at the apex of power and a conviction, supported by evidence gathered on his journey to the top, that rules are a trap to catch weaker men and honour is a plastic trophy that losers award themselves in consolation for unfulfilled ambition. Having such a personality at the heart of government makes a nonsense of unwritten protocol. Much of British politics proceeds by the observance of invisible rails guarding against the tyrannical caprices that formal constitutions explicitly prohibit.
Conservative MPs are not under any illusions about the man who leads them. They appointed a rogue as their king because they craved the success that his methods bring. It was inevitable that evidence of his unsuitability for the job would leak into the public domain, even if it takes a while for misrule to have an electoral consequence. The question pinging around Tory WhatsApp groups is how far the current furore reaches beyond Westminster.
Downing Street is now a machine for generating vindictive enmity. Energies that should be spent on policy are consumed settling scores and lighting new fires to fight old ones. This is not a phase, nor is it an accident. It is a new mode of government being improvised because events flattened the old way. The court of King Boris combines the zealotry of a revolution with the conceit of an empire and the probity of gangsters. It is hard to predict how long such a regime can last, but two things can be forecast with confidence: the fall will be messy, and few who cheer Johnson today will boast of having done so once he is gone.
This sort of dribble says so much more about the author than anyone else. But hopefully it made him feel better, more pure, or whatever.
Edit, I see @Leon has made the same point, apologies.
It doesn't strike me as particular contentious, as Johnson analyses go. The structural points are fairly sound, and have even been gently echoed in the rightwing press from time to time, with some of his nice verbal flourishes on top. Many Tories know they are riding the tiger of an expedient charlatan, and eventually that charlatanism will become too obvious, either now or later.
People make themselves look either philistine or ultra partisan calling that bad writing. It reminds me of when Leavers got so upset with Matthew Parris about his extreme Remoania that many of them started to slag him off as a writer, even though his columns were as erudite and elegant as ever. It's fascinating how bias can interfere with the appreciation of prose quality. I'm not immune. I once lashed out at a lacerating piece of antiwokery, calling it "pseudy" and "facile" and "bloated", when on reflection I realized that the actual writing (if not the sentiments) was high quality.
Quality of writing and quality of argument are linked but non identical matters. The excellent Matthew Parris in his great pro EU purple passages kept on forgetting that top quality journalism when making arguments has to deal with the weakness as well as the strength of their own position, and the strengths as well as the weaknesses of the opposition. He kept forgetting that decent prose doesn't make up for ignoring well founded and arguable claims. It just makes it glaringly obvious by the gap between the high quality prose and the middling contents.
They will open up the country quickly to get pressure off the buffoon, claim the virus is beaten.
If that was the case Boris rather than Hancock would be there.
This is to mark some achievement number or other and nothing more.
The clever thing to do would be to say that the data is looking a lot better than predicted so a review is being made to look into potentially bringing forward the timeline. That can then be speculated over for days, then in a few days time Boris can say "mission accomplished, we're bringing forward the 17 May unlocking by a fortnight.
So you think pubs that aren't open yet so won't have stock can open at zero notice?
Next Monday is the 3rd May...
Saying that you can open is not the same thing as saying you have to open.
There are many pubs open across the country for outside trade only so they'll have stock for that already, saying they can allow people inside is something businesses can adapt to rather rapidly. Similarly many restaurants have stock as they've been open for takeaways, so they'll be able to adapt to being open for tables too.
If premises wish to remain closed and still reopen 17 May that's their choice, nobody will be compelled to open but it would be nice for the business to have a choice.
Plus of course the 17 May opening has many other elements like allowing people into family and friends living rooms etc too.
You are penalising pubs that won't be ready.
How are they penalised? They can still open 17 May if they want to, so they're no worse off.
If indeed they're capable of opening say 10 May after a week to order stock, clean lines and get everything ready, then they're still better off by an entire week. An entire week in May, one of the busiest months in the year, its criminal to be saying they have to be shut by law. So best case they can reopen sooner, medium case they can reopen a bit sooner, worst case they stick to the original timeline. Win/win/neutral - no punishment.
They will open up the country quickly to get pressure off the buffoon, claim the virus is beaten.
If that was the case Boris rather than Hancock would be there.
This is to mark some achievement number or other and nothing more.
The clever thing to do would be to say that the data is looking a lot better than predicted so a review is being made to look into potentially bringing forward the timeline. That can then be speculated over for days, then in a few days time Boris can say "mission accomplished, we're bringing forward the 17 May unlocking by a fortnight.
So you think pubs that aren't open yet so won't have stock can open at zero notice?
Next Monday is the 3rd May...
Saying that you can open is not the same thing as saying you have to open.
There are many pubs open across the country for outside trade only so they'll have stock for that already, saying they can allow people inside is something businesses can adapt to rather rapidly. Similarly many restaurants have stock as they've been open for takeaways, so they'll be able to adapt to being open for tables too.
If premises wish to remain closed and still reopen 17 May that's their choice, nobody will be compelled to open but it would be nice for the business to have a choice.
Plus of course the 17 May opening has many other elements like allowing people into family and friends living rooms etc too.
You are penalising pubs that won't be ready.
Not really. People can still go to those pubs on the 17th.
Where I am, the households rules have already completely broken down and you still have to travel a very long way to find an area of map with more than 0-3 weekly cases.
It is hard to predict how long such a regime can last, but two things can be forecast with confidence: the fall will be messy, and few who cheer Johnson today will boast of having done so once he is gone.
The author clearly doesn't read PB
The fanbois will never leave him...
Big_G made his amazing journey on a two-way street.
BREAKING: Arlene Foster says she will step down as DUP leader and Northern Ireland’s First Minister, following calls within the party for a leadership contest. More on @SkyNews now.
But I think we can already answer the big question: Will the DUP appoint a leader who will let us into the secret of what the DUP wants from Brexit and the border issue instead of the long list of what they don't? QTWTAIN
And will a disgruntled Foster shuffle off to form the Uladh party?
Edit: not the 'Uladh' party, d'oh. Unless she has a major change of heart about Irish/British identity.
BREAKING: Arlene Foster says she will step down as DUP leader and Northern Ireland’s First Minister, following calls within the party for a leadership contest. More on @SkyNews now.
Which means that the next leader will be more unionist and Sinn Fein will win the 2022 election.
Not at all, Sinn Fein are only ahead now as the DUP have lost hardliners to Traditional Unionist Voice.
The latest NI Assembly poll has Sinn Fein on 24%, the DUP on 19%, the Alliance on 18% and the SDLP on 13%, the UUP on 12% and Traditional Unionist Voice on 10%.
If you are a moderate Unionist you will already be voting UUP not DUP. If you are a centrist you will be voting Alliance not DUP and if you are a Nationalist you will obviously never vote DUP anyway.
It is hardliners the DUP needs to win back
If the DUP moves to win back hardliners they are likely to lose softer voters to the Alliance.
No they won't.
Nobody who is voting DUP will ever vote Alliance, UUP or TUV is as far as they will go.
Equally nobody who is voting Alliance would ever vote DUP, UUP or SDLP would be as far as they would go.
It is voters lost to the TUV the DUP have to win back to retake the lead from SF
Roll out the footy analogies... 'We are 6-0 up, in the last minute of the game, but sides have lost from here before...'
LOL
I'd like to think our journalists would ask about lifting restrictions early, but I suspect they will be wittering on about holidays again, and with a subsidary about decorating... I firmly believe we have enough evidence in terms of cases (not rising), population antibodies (thanks ONS), evidence of real world vaccine effects (both within patient, and in preventing/reducing transmission) to be less cautious, but I'd be amazed if any of the lobby ask about it.
It is very odd how the May 17 date is now seemingly set in stone. What the government could offer – through its own rules – is a raft of so-called test events with full crowds – e.g. Royal Ascot and the England vs Scotland Euro 2021 match at Wembley. Those dates are so close to the end date of June 21 (just a few days before it) that imposing restrictions on them seems farcical.
It’s still only small percentages allowed in arenas after the 17th, not full houses?
When they talk about fans in grounds, I hadn’t realised for Leicester semi you could only go if you lived in Brent. The fans looked more bemused than excited.
That's the point I'm making. The events I cite are a few days before 21 June – they should be allowed full crowds.
Do you think there will be full crowds everywhere after 21 June? It’s not mandatory is it, venues have right to restrict and distance.
No it's not mandatory. If Ascot want to run a half crowd then up to them, ditto Wembley, pandemic or no pandemic, that's their right. But given those events I cite are literally a few days before 21 June then mandating the restrictions is farcical.
To put that in clear terms: England play Scotland on Friday 18 June. That's the biggest football match on these shores for years. The restrictions are due to be lifted the following Monday. Under the current plans, Wembley would be limited to 10,000 fans – not even enough to meet Scotland's away allocation, never mind England's. If the game were staged just 60 hours later, they could sell out all 90,000 tickets.
Royal Ascot is the same week 15-19 June.
What exactly is your point? I find it hard to infer from your posts at times.
My point being that your point is a good one. 60 hours later could be potential sell out. So why not special dispensation for the full house?
Well, the date may have been fabricated on basis it is sixty hours this side in the first place. My point being, if it was sixty hours or more later, they wouldn’t have tried to sell anything near the full house. The government and scientists wouldn’t’ the have been comfortable with that, nor Wembley stadium.
After June 21st it’s not normal, it’s new normal.
Eh? What does this mean? There are games in the tournament after 21 June, that will not be subject to restrictions. Why should England vs Scotland be? What is "new normal"?
An update on the vaccination programme in my county - Montgomery Co., MD. Today marks the start or walk-in vaccinations (no appointment) for all age groups at the vaccination supercenters.
50.4% have had one dose, 33.5% fully vaccinated. I am unsure if this is adults or total population.
The prime minister approaches truth the way a toddler handles broccoli. He understands the idea that it contains some goodness, but it will touch his lips only if a higher authority compels it there. Everyone who has worked with him in journalism and politics describes a pattern of selfishness and unreliability. He craves affection and demands loyalty, but lacks the qualities that would cultivate proper friendship. The public bonhomie hides a private streak of brooding paranoia. Being incapable of faithfulness, he presumes others are just as ready to betray him, which they duly do, provoked by his duplicity.
Johnson is driven by a restless sense of his own entitlement to be at the apex of power and a conviction, supported by evidence gathered on his journey to the top, that rules are a trap to catch weaker men and honour is a plastic trophy that losers award themselves in consolation for unfulfilled ambition. Having such a personality at the heart of government makes a nonsense of unwritten protocol. Much of British politics proceeds by the observance of invisible rails guarding against the tyrannical caprices that formal constitutions explicitly prohibit.
Conservative MPs are not under any illusions about the man who leads them. They appointed a rogue as their king because they craved the success that his methods bring. It was inevitable that evidence of his unsuitability for the job would leak into the public domain, even if it takes a while for misrule to have an electoral consequence. The question pinging around Tory WhatsApp groups is how far the current furore reaches beyond Westminster.
Downing Street is now a machine for generating vindictive enmity. Energies that should be spent on policy are consumed settling scores and lighting new fires to fight old ones. This is not a phase, nor is it an accident. It is a new mode of government being improvised because events flattened the old way. The court of King Boris combines the zealotry of a revolution with the conceit of an empire and the probity of gangsters. It is hard to predict how long such a regime can last, but two things can be forecast with confidence: the fall will be messy, and few who cheer Johnson today will boast of having done so once he is gone.
This sort of dribble says so much more about the author than anyone else. But hopefully it made him feel better, more pure, or whatever.
Edit, I see @Leon has made the same point, apologies.
It’s not as banal or embarrassing as Marina Hyde but it’s still rather smug and self serving. It just comes over as all being a game to these people.
Who do you like as a politics writer then? Fraser Nelson?
Not really read a great deal from him. Andrew Rawnsley, Tim Shipman and Peter Oborne are okay. Can’t say I go out of my way to read a great deal of political commentary. The threads here are usually okay.
My business partner is generally very supportive of Johnson. Not an enthusiast, but very much prefers him to any Labour offerings. He said to me today that the wallpaper doesn't worry him at all, but the bodies piled up comment does, adding it's exactly the sort of thing, the "stupid b******" would say.
So just froth? Maybe, but maybe not.
This is what I was thinking when Nick Robinson was cooing over Sarah Vine's favourable view of Boris Johnson's wallpaper this morning.
The press have decided that the refurbishment is the bigger story, for now, but the 'bodies' comment and issue will anger a lot more people, I think.
I wonder also if the refurbishment funding might be set alongside the government decision not to help the leaseholders in flats where government legislation has put them on the hook for £90k or so to pay for replacement of flammable insulation. The comparison isn’t exactly fair, but neither is the treatment of the leaseholders.
They will open up the country quickly to get pressure off the buffoon, claim the virus is beaten.
If that was the case Boris rather than Hancock would be there.
This is to mark some achievement number or other and nothing more.
The clever thing to do would be to say that the data is looking a lot better than predicted so a review is being made to look into potentially bringing forward the timeline. That can then be speculated over for days, then in a few days time Boris can say "mission accomplished, we're bringing forward the 17 May unlocking by a fortnight.
So you think pubs that aren't open yet so won't have stock can open at zero notice?
Next Monday is the 3rd May...
Saying that you can open is not the same thing as saying you have to open.
There are many pubs open across the country for outside trade only so they'll have stock for that already, saying they can allow people inside is something businesses can adapt to rather rapidly. Similarly many restaurants have stock as they've been open for takeaways, so they'll be able to adapt to being open for tables too.
If premises wish to remain closed and still reopen 17 May that's their choice, nobody will be compelled to open but it would be nice for the business to have a choice.
Plus of course the 17 May opening has many other elements like allowing people into family and friends living rooms etc too.
You are penalising pubs that won't be ready.
Keeping the status quo would equally penalise pubs that are/could be ready, surely.
The prime minister approaches truth the way a toddler handles broccoli. He understands the idea that it contains some goodness, but it will touch his lips only if a higher authority compels it there. Everyone who has worked with him in journalism and politics describes a pattern of selfishness and unreliability. He craves affection and demands loyalty, but lacks the qualities that would cultivate proper friendship. The public bonhomie hides a private streak of brooding paranoia. Being incapable of faithfulness, he presumes others are just as ready to betray him, which they duly do, provoked by his duplicity.
Johnson is driven by a restless sense of his own entitlement to be at the apex of power and a conviction, supported by evidence gathered on his journey to the top, that rules are a trap to catch weaker men and honour is a plastic trophy that losers award themselves in consolation for unfulfilled ambition. Having such a personality at the heart of government makes a nonsense of unwritten protocol. Much of British politics proceeds by the observance of invisible rails guarding against the tyrannical caprices that formal constitutions explicitly prohibit.
Conservative MPs are not under any illusions about the man who leads them. They appointed a rogue as their king because they craved the success that his methods bring. It was inevitable that evidence of his unsuitability for the job would leak into the public domain, even if it takes a while for misrule to have an electoral consequence. The question pinging around Tory WhatsApp groups is how far the current furore reaches beyond Westminster.
Downing Street is now a machine for generating vindictive enmity. Energies that should be spent on policy are consumed settling scores and lighting new fires to fight old ones. This is not a phase, nor is it an accident. It is a new mode of government being improvised because events flattened the old way. The court of King Boris combines the zealotry of a revolution with the conceit of an empire and the probity of gangsters. It is hard to predict how long such a regime can last, but two things can be forecast with confidence: the fall will be messy, and few who cheer Johnson today will boast of having done so once he is gone.
This sort of dribble says so much more about the author than anyone else. But hopefully it made him feel better, more pure, or whatever.
Edit, I see @Leon has made the same point, apologies.
It doesn't strike me as particular contentious, as Johnson analyses go. The structural points are fairly sound, and have even been gently echoed in the rightwing press from time to time, with some of his nice verbal flourishes on top. Many Tories know they are riding the tiger of an expedient charlatan, and eventually that charlatanism will become too obvious, either now or later.
People make themselves look either philistine or ultra partisan calling that bad writing. It reminds me of when Leavers got so upset with Matthew Parris about his extreme Remoania that many of them started to slag him off as a writer, even though his columns were as erudite and elegant as ever. It's fascinating how bias can interfere with the appreciation of prose quality. I'm not immune. I once lashed out at a lacerating piece of antiwokery, calling it "pseudy" and "facile" and "bloated", when on reflection I realized that the actual writing (if not the sentiments) was high quality.
Quality of writing and quality of argument are linked but non identical matters. The excellent Matthew Parris in his great pro EU purple passages kept on forgetting that top quality journalism when making arguments has to deal with the weakness as well as the strength of their own position, and the strengths as well as the weaknesses of the opposition. He kept forgetting that decent prose doesn't make up for ignoring well founded and arguable claims. It just makes it glaringly obvious by the gap between the high quality prose and the middling contents.
That's true. And in fact I'd say it's rare to see profound insight delivered in pisspoor prose and banality in really good prose. But it is possible. I'd say the latter is more common. Leon on here is an example. He pulls off this trick sometimes.
They will open up the country quickly to get pressure off the buffoon, claim the virus is beaten.
If that was the case Boris rather than Hancock would be there.
This is to mark some achievement number or other and nothing more.
The clever thing to do would be to say that the data is looking a lot better than predicted so a review is being made to look into potentially bringing forward the timeline. That can then be speculated over for days, then in a few days time Boris can say "mission accomplished, we're bringing forward the 17 May unlocking by a fortnight.
So you think pubs that aren't open yet so won't have stock can open at zero notice?
Next Monday is the 3rd May...
Saying that you can open is not the same thing as saying you have to open.
There are many pubs open across the country for outside trade only so they'll have stock for that already, saying they can allow people inside is something businesses can adapt to rather rapidly. Similarly many restaurants have stock as they've been open for takeaways, so they'll be able to adapt to being open for tables too.
If premises wish to remain closed and still reopen 17 May that's their choice, nobody will be compelled to open but it would be nice for the business to have a choice.
Plus of course the 17 May opening has many other elements like allowing people into family and friends living rooms etc too.
Why can't Labour supporters see that making a fuss about Johnson's apartment is entirely the wrong subject to have a go at him with? It ought to be all about his failure to close the borders in March last year, and also his bizarre assertion that vaccines aren't causing the number of cases to drop when most of the experts say it is. They always seem to choose the wrong subject.
"Why will the Prime Minister not acknowledge how incredibly impactful the Government Vaccine Rollout has been? This flies in the face of most experts who say it is the primary reason we can reopen our economy and relax the lockdown restrictions!"
- Anonymous, but correct, Leader of the Opposition
(Sorry to be so sarky, but how on earth is attacking Johnson for not giving enough credit to the vaccination effort possibly the right move?!)
My business partner is generally very supportive of Johnson. Not an enthusiast, but very much prefers him to any Labour offerings. He said to me today that the wallpaper doesn't worry him at all, but the bodies piled up comment does, adding it's exactly the sort of thing, the "stupid b******" would say.
So just froth? Maybe, but maybe not.
This is what I was thinking when Nick Robinson was cooing over Sarah Vine's favourable view of Boris Johnson's wallpaper this morning.
The press have decided that the refurbishment is the bigger story, for now, but the 'bodies' comment and issue will anger a lot more people, I think.
Derry Irvine spent a lot more on wallpaper iirc
You always seem to react to potential wrong doings by pointing out that someone on the other side probably did something worse. Two wrongs do not make a right. Boris either did something wrong or he didn't. What Derry Irvine did is irrelevant to Boris's situation.
“Tonight is the triumph of Boris Johnson, his advisors and his style.
His honeymoon will not last because he will remain a rather nasty unempathetic coward with a lack of respect for the truth and for others.
But Tory MPs, as ever, have little sentiment in dumping leaders.”
I think Boris is fairly safe, but not prepared to bet the bank on it. Respect to those in deep.
One of my most controversial opinions is that this isn't in fact true, and that Tory MPs have only been ruthless this century once which was against IDS. Hague and Howard went after losing election. Cameron lost a referendum, May lost an election and still survived for a couple of years despite 80% of the party wanting her out.
Even Major held on for 5 years with a tiny majority (and years when it was obvious he was on the way to defeat) and Thatcher was deposed but only after a very long premiership making enemies over time and not before becoming electorally problematic.
Labour, who are often suggested to be less ruthless, got Blair to step down midway through a parliament too. And the move against Corbyn where almost the entire shadow cabinet resigned was more ruthless than anything the Tories have done for decades - it just didn't work because they don't have a 1922 Vote of No Confidence mechanism. But the Tories rarely use that mechanism, in truth. Nor does it cause leaders to resign in fear of losing one.
I think you are right. Look ar Australia if you want ruthless.
“ The Sputnik V vaccine Ad5 vector is evidently replication competent. The makers apparently neglected to delete E1, so getting this vaccine means being infected with live adenovirus 5.
That's a shocking error. Especially given all that we know about Ad5 and HIV susceptibility. Whatever authorisations this has need to be rescinded ASAP.
So the antivaxxers kinda have a point…
Nope. The vaccine in question hasn't been approved by our regulator. So that's a stupid post by you I'm afraid.
On the positive side, it should mean that an increasing number of people get vaccinated by Sputnik-5, and without having to bother with all the hassle of getting an injection.
Not necessarily, as this thread discusses. https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1387397186372005893 ... I don't know enough about the specific AdV system used here, but it's reasonable to think that if E1 recombined w/ the Ad vector, it might replace spike. So that's doubly bad: you not only have a replication-competent Ad5, it's not expressing spike. Which is...the entire point....
I took Robert's comment to be meant in jest.
Me too. I wasn’t dissing him, just using it as a hook to point out we don’t really know what’s going on with the Sputnik vaccine (and it might well vary from batch to batch).
BREAKING: Arlene Foster says she will step down as DUP leader and Northern Ireland’s First Minister, following calls within the party for a leadership contest. More on @SkyNews now.
Which means that the next leader will be more unionist and Sinn Fein will win the 2022 election.
As Mr Herdson observes:
In the current climate, this can only mean a shift to a more hardline position. That's a normal tendency of leadership elections as candidates chase members' votes but will likely be magnified this time because of anger about the NI-GB border.
My business partner is generally very supportive of Johnson. Not an enthusiast, but very much prefers him to any Labour offerings. He said to me today that the wallpaper doesn't worry him at all, but the bodies piled up comment does, adding it's exactly the sort of thing, the "stupid b******" would say.
So just froth? Maybe, but maybe not.
This is what I was thinking when Nick Robinson was cooing over Sarah Vine's favourable view of Boris Johnson's wallpaper this morning.
The press have decided that the refurbishment is the bigger story, for now, but the 'bodies' comment and issue will anger a lot more people, I think.
I wonder also if the refurbishment funding might be set alongside the government decision not to help the leaseholders in flats where government legislation has put them on the hook for £90k or so to pay for replacement of flammable insulation. The comparison isn’t exactly fair, but neither is the treatment of the leaseholders.
John Lewis furniture nightmare. Or potentially burned to death in your own home nightmare.
BREAKING: Arlene Foster says she will step down as DUP leader and Northern Ireland’s First Minister, following calls within the party for a leadership contest. More on @SkyNews now.
Which means that the next leader will be more unionist and Sinn Fein will win the 2022 election.
Not at all, Sinn Fein are only ahead now as the DUP have lost hardliners to Traditional Unionist Voice.
The latest NI Assembly poll has Sinn Fein on 24%, the DUP on 19%, the Alliance on 18% and the SDLP on 13%, the UUP on 12% and Traditional Unionist Voice on 10%.
If you are a moderate Unionist you will already be voting UUP not DUP. If you are a centrist you will be voting Alliance not DUP and if you are a Nationalist you will obviously never vote DUP anyway.
It is hardliners the DUP needs to win back
If the DUP moves to win back hardliners they are likely to lose softer voters to the Alliance.
No they won't.
Nobody who is voting DUP will ever vote Alliance, UUP or TUV is as far as they will go.
Equally nobody who is voting Alliance would ever vote DUP, UUP or SDLP would be as far as they would go.
It is voters lost to the TUV the DUP have to win back to retake the lead from SF
Unusual circumstances, I know, but can the 2010 General Election result in East Belfast, for example, be explained without very significant DUP/Alliance switching?
Why can't Labour supporters see that making a fuss about Johnson's apartment is entirely the wrong subject to have a go at him with? It ought to be all about his failure to close the borders in March last year, and also his bizarre assertion that vaccines aren't causing the number of cases to drop when most of the experts say it is. They always seem to choose the wrong subject.
The wallpaper is a sideshow, which on its own cuts no ice. However as part of a suite of scandals it adds a little extra spice into the mix.
Closing borders is not a popular criticism of the PM, particularly as we (the Royal we) all spent much of the early summer gaming our holiday destinations to avoid Covid travel inconvenience.
It is hard to predict how long such a regime can last, but two things can be forecast with confidence: the fall will be messy, and few who cheer Johnson today will boast of having done so once he is gone.
The author clearly doesn't read PB
The fanbois will never leave him...
Big_G made his amazing journey on a two-way street.
...and several times over. Maybe he was lost?
Do you enjoy being personal
Maybe I am just a loyal party member, apart from twice voting Blair.
And on Boris I would be quite content to see Rishi move into no 10 tomorrow
But Boris does annoy so many of his opponents who cannot stand him I find it quite amusing they do not seem to be getting anywhere
Mind you, next Thursday may change that perception
And at my age I have learnt a well known motto, adapt, adopt and improve and if I change my mind so be it
The prime minister approaches truth the way a toddler handles broccoli. He understands the idea that it contains some goodness, but it will touch his lips only if a higher authority compels it there. Everyone who has worked with him in journalism and politics describes a pattern of selfishness and unreliability. He craves affection and demands loyalty, but lacks the qualities that would cultivate proper friendship. The public bonhomie hides a private streak of brooding paranoia. Being incapable of faithfulness, he presumes others are just as ready to betray him, which they duly do, provoked by his duplicity.
Johnson is driven by a restless sense of his own entitlement to be at the apex of power and a conviction, supported by evidence gathered on his journey to the top, that rules are a trap to catch weaker men and honour is a plastic trophy that losers award themselves in consolation for unfulfilled ambition. Having such a personality at the heart of government makes a nonsense of unwritten protocol. Much of British politics proceeds by the observance of invisible rails guarding against the tyrannical caprices that formal constitutions explicitly prohibit.
Conservative MPs are not under any illusions about the man who leads them. They appointed a rogue as their king because they craved the success that his methods bring. It was inevitable that evidence of his unsuitability for the job would leak into the public domain, even if it takes a while for misrule to have an electoral consequence. The question pinging around Tory WhatsApp groups is how far the current furore reaches beyond Westminster.
Downing Street is now a machine for generating vindictive enmity. Energies that should be spent on policy are consumed settling scores and lighting new fires to fight old ones. This is not a phase, nor is it an accident. It is a new mode of government being improvised because events flattened the old way. The court of King Boris combines the zealotry of a revolution with the conceit of an empire and the probity of gangsters. It is hard to predict how long such a regime can last, but two things can be forecast with confidence: the fall will be messy, and few who cheer Johnson today will boast of having done so once he is gone.
This sort of dribble says so much more about the author than anyone else. But hopefully it made him feel better, more pure, or whatever.
Edit, I see @Leon has made the same point, apologies.
It doesn't strike me as particular contentious, as Johnson analyses go. The structural points are fairly sound, and have even been gently echoed in the rightwing press from time to time, with some of his nice verbal flourishes on top. Many Tories know they are riding the tiger of an expedient charlatan, and eventually that charlatanism will become too obvious, either now or later.
People make themselves look either philistine or ultra partisan calling that bad writing. It reminds me of when Leavers got so upset with Matthew Parris about his extreme Remoania that many of them started to slag him off as a writer, even though his columns were as erudite and elegant as ever. It's fascinating how bias can interfere with the appreciation of prose quality. I'm not immune. I once lashed out at a lacerating piece of antiwokery, calling it "pseudy" and "facile" and "bloated", when on reflection I realized that the actual writing (if not the sentiments) was high quality.
Quality of writing and quality of argument are linked but non identical matters. The excellent Matthew Parris in his great pro EU purple passages kept on forgetting that top quality journalism when making arguments has to deal with the weakness as well as the strength of their own position, and the strengths as well as the weaknesses of the opposition. He kept forgetting that decent prose doesn't make up for ignoring well founded and arguable claims. It just makes it glaringly obvious by the gap between the high quality prose and the middling contents.
Fair point. An easy trap to fall into when you care passionately about an issue.
What proportion of the population needs antibodies to trigger for herd immunity with the Kent R? 68% is adults only of course, kiddiewinks will drag it down.
There are people in Northern Ireland with a British identity, others are Irish, others are Northern Irish, others are a mixture of all three and some are new and emerging. We must all learn to be generous to each other, live together and share this wonderful country.
The future of unionism and Northern Ireland will not be found in division, it will only be found in sharing this place we all are privileged to call home.
BREAKING: Arlene Foster says she will step down as DUP leader and Northern Ireland’s First Minister, following calls within the party for a leadership contest. More on @SkyNews now.
Which means that the next leader will be more unionist and Sinn Fein will win the 2022 election.
As Mr Herdson observes:
In the current climate, this can only mean a shift to a more hardline position. That's a normal tendency of leadership elections as candidates chase members' votes but will likely be magnified this time because of anger about the NI-GB border.
The prime minister approaches truth the way a toddler handles broccoli. He understands the idea that it contains some goodness, but it will touch his lips only if a higher authority compels it there. Everyone who has worked with him in journalism and politics describes a pattern of selfishness and unreliability. He craves affection and demands loyalty, but lacks the qualities that would cultivate proper friendship. The public bonhomie hides a private streak of brooding paranoia. Being incapable of faithfulness, he presumes others are just as ready to betray him, which they duly do, provoked by his duplicity.
Johnson is driven by a restless sense of his own entitlement to be at the apex of power and a conviction, supported by evidence gathered on his journey to the top, that rules are a trap to catch weaker men and honour is a plastic trophy that losers award themselves in consolation for unfulfilled ambition. Having such a personality at the heart of government makes a nonsense of unwritten protocol. Much of British politics proceeds by the observance of invisible rails guarding against the tyrannical caprices that formal constitutions explicitly prohibit.
Conservative MPs are not under any illusions about the man who leads them. They appointed a rogue as their king because they craved the success that his methods bring. It was inevitable that evidence of his unsuitability for the job would leak into the public domain, even if it takes a while for misrule to have an electoral consequence. The question pinging around Tory WhatsApp groups is how far the current furore reaches beyond Westminster.
Downing Street is now a machine for generating vindictive enmity. Energies that should be spent on policy are consumed settling scores and lighting new fires to fight old ones. This is not a phase, nor is it an accident. It is a new mode of government being improvised because events flattened the old way. The court of King Boris combines the zealotry of a revolution with the conceit of an empire and the probity of gangsters. It is hard to predict how long such a regime can last, but two things can be forecast with confidence: the fall will be messy, and few who cheer Johnson today will boast of having done so once he is gone.
Terrific piece of prose. I really am wondering whether to close my bet on him still being PM on 1st July 2022. It's still in decent profit but it's getting smaller. Maybe Johnson's days truly are numbered. Maybe I've been calling this wrong and El Capitano (Topping) has it right. That he's so enormously and obviously unfit to be PM that he simply cannot last for more than a couple of years. Hmm. Dunno.
Don’t be swayed by prose in the guardian. Mistaking elegance for insight will make you a fool. For betting purposes it’s irrelevant.
The value is on him staying the course, IMO
It's not the eloquence it's the argument. That if something is truly absurd, the fact of it being so will dawn at some point. If it has not yet happened, (eg No Deal Brexit, EU Ref2, Trump 2nd Term, PM Corbyn) it will never happen, and if it has happened (eg Boris Johnson as PM) it will be reversed.
But then again, there's the inertia rule that says far more big things (eg the lurid Fall of Johnson) don't happen than happen. And he's popular. And he won a landslide GE quite recently. And the polls are good. And he's about to win Hartlepool.
So on balance, 1.47 to still be PM on 1st July next year? Yep, still more a buy than a lay, isn't it.
Have you got any bets on Johnson exit markets?
The thing that makes this different/dangerous is that there is someone close to the PM who is clearly out to get him.
Yes.
"I set up the election for his landslide. I did all the work to prop the lazy fucker up in the job. Then he sacks me just cos his girly tells him to and now the treacherous little runt is trashing me all over the shop. It's not on. Nobody puts Dom in the corner like that. I'm gonna send him down. Send him down to Chinatown."
Always worth remembering that Cummings is not a conservative (either with a big C or a little c).
(I know ... some would say that he is a big C ...)
He hates the trad Tory party by all accounts. Although if he brings down Johnson he might be empowering the sort of Tories he hates.
I just read that the WHO is opening up COVAX for individual donations. Great idea, once they give the details I'm going to make a donation and I'd urge all PBers to do the same if that can. Ultimately, it's on all of us to get this under control and we can't be a vaccinated island watching the rest of the world burn.
BREAKING: Arlene Foster says she will step down as DUP leader and Northern Ireland’s First Minister, following calls within the party for a leadership contest. More on @SkyNews now.
Which means that the next leader will be more unionist and Sinn Fein will win the 2022 election.
As Mr Herdson observes:
In the current climate, this can only mean a shift to a more hardline position. That's a normal tendency of leadership elections as candidates chase members' votes but will likely be magnified this time because of anger about the NI-GB border.
Yep - it's a swing to the headline with middle class unionists probably heading towards the Alliance as they will have a chance of winning.
HUYFD has this idea that all votes are split on religious lines but that really isn't the case when you start looking at those with a university education.
What proportion of the population needs antibodies to trigger for herd immunity with the Kent R? 68% is adults only of course, kiddiewinks will drag it down.
Tricky as we don't really know the R with no interventions, but it seems likely that by 80% we should be seeing a significant effect. The other issue is this - if everyone who would require hospital care or might die is protected, then it is less important if there are still reservoirs of Covid among the youngsters (issues with long covid aside).
What proportion of the population needs antibodies to trigger for herd immunity with the Kent R? 68% is adults only of course, kiddiewinks will drag it down.
Let's lock the little bastards down. Permanently. Time to go full King Herod.
I wonder also if the refurbishment funding might be set alongside the government decision not to help the leaseholders in flats where government legislation has put them on the hook for £90k or so to pay for replacement of flammable insulation. The comparison isn’t exactly fair, but neither is the treatment of the leaseholders.
Ooo yes. This should be memo'd to SKS pronto if you have his co-ordinates.
BREAKING: Arlene Foster says she will step down as DUP leader and Northern Ireland’s First Minister, following calls within the party for a leadership contest. More on @SkyNews now.
Which means that the next leader will be more unionist and Sinn Fein will win the 2022 election.
As Mr Herdson observes:
In the current climate, this can only mean a shift to a more hardline position. That's a normal tendency of leadership elections as candidates chase members' votes but will likely be magnified this time because of anger about the NI-GB border.
Yep - it's a swing to the headline with middle class unionists probably heading towards the Alliance as they will have a chance of winning.
HUYFD has this idea that all votes are split on religious lines but that really isn't the case when you start looking at those with a university education.
Most middle class moderate Unionists already vote UUP or Alliance anyway.
It is working class Unionists or middle class hardliners who are the DUP's core vote and it is they who they have been leaking to TUV
What proportion of the population needs antibodies to trigger for herd immunity with the Kent R? 68% is adults only of course, kiddiewinks will drag it down.
Let's lock the little bastards down. Permanently. Time to go full King Herod.
So the accusations about Tories and consumable babies may not be a myth be after all.
What proportion of the population needs antibodies to trigger for herd immunity with the Kent R? 68% is adults only of course, kiddiewinks will drag it down.
Let's lock the little bastards down. Permanently. Time to go full King Herod.
Even Long Covid would be a breeze compared to being permanently locked in a small flat with a couple of toddlers. Parents would be glad to go to hospital for the break from them I'd imagine.
BREAKING: Arlene Foster says she will step down as DUP leader and Northern Ireland’s First Minister, following calls within the party for a leadership contest. More on @SkyNews now.
Which means that the next leader will be more unionist and Sinn Fein will win the 2022 election.
As Mr Herdson observes:
In the current climate, this can only mean a shift to a more hardline position. That's a normal tendency of leadership elections as candidates chase members' votes but will likely be magnified this time because of anger about the NI-GB border.
Yep - it's a swing to the headline with middle class unionists probably heading towards the Alliance as they will have a chance of winning.
HUYFD has this idea that all votes are split on religious lines but that really isn't the case when you start looking at those with a university education.
What price a UUP recovery? On which note whatever happened to @Lucian_Fletcher ? He was the go to guy on NI and the UUP in particular.
BREAKING: Arlene Foster says she will step down as DUP leader and Northern Ireland’s First Minister, following calls within the party for a leadership contest. More on @SkyNews now.
What proportion of the population needs antibodies to trigger for herd immunity with the Kent R? 68% is adults only of course, kiddiewinks will drag it down.
Let's lock the little bastards down. Permanently. Time to go full King Herod.
So the accusations about Tories and consumable babies may not be a myth be after all.
Herod has been very cruelly treated by history, IMHO.
At worst, he's guilty of acting out of an abundance of caution.
It is hard to predict how long such a regime can last, but two things can be forecast with confidence: the fall will be messy, and few who cheer Johnson today will boast of having done so once he is gone.
The author clearly doesn't read PB
The fanbois will never leave him...
Big_G made his amazing journey on a two-way street.
...and several times over. Maybe he was lost?
Do you enjoy being personal
Maybe I am just a loyal party member, apart from twice voting Blair.
And on Boris I would be quite content to see Rishi move into no 10 tomorrow
But Boris does annoy so many of his opponents who cannot stand him I find it quite amusing they do not seem to be getting anywhere
Mind you, next Thursday may change that perception
And at my age I have learnt a well known motto, adapt, adopt and improve and if I change my mind so be it
I'll owe you a pint of Felinfoel Double Dragon if RT becomes FM. You can hold me to that!
BREAKING: Arlene Foster says she will step down as DUP leader and Northern Ireland’s First Minister, following calls within the party for a leadership contest. More on @SkyNews now.
Which means that the next leader will be more unionist and Sinn Fein will win the 2022 election.
Not at all, Sinn Fein are only ahead now as the DUP have lost hardliners to Traditional Unionist Voice.
The latest NI Assembly poll has Sinn Fein on 24%, the DUP on 19%, the Alliance on 18% and the SDLP on 13%, the UUP on 12% and Traditional Unionist Voice on 10%.
If you are a moderate Unionist you will already be voting UUP not DUP. If you are a centrist you will be voting Alliance not DUP and if you are a Nationalist you will obviously never vote DUP anyway.
It is hardliners the DUP needs to win back
If the DUP moves to win back hardliners they are likely to lose softer voters to the Alliance.
No they won't.
Nobody who is voting DUP will ever vote Alliance, UUP or TUV is as far as they will go.
Equally nobody who is voting Alliance would ever vote DUP, UUP or SDLP would be as far as they would go.
It is voters lost to the TUV the DUP have to win back to retake the lead from SF
Unusual circumstances, I know, but can the 2010 General Election result in East Belfast, for example, be explained without very significant DUP/Alliance switching?
TUV went from 0% in East Belfast in 2005 to 5% in East Belfast in 2010 at the DUP's expense.
The Alliance vote now is also higher in East Belfast at 44% than it was in 2010 when they got 32%, so any middle class Unionists who might have switched to the Alliance have likely already done so.
The brute facts are these, currently the DUP trail SF by 5% with the TUV on 10% so if the DUP continued on their current course SF would win most seats next year, only by winning back hardliners lost to TUV can the DUP retake first place.
In NI terms Foster is May and the DUP need a Boris to recover votes lost to the TUV, the NI Brexit Party
The one thing that came out of PMQs for me was Boris's denial he said those words and challenged those who said he had to bring forward their evidence, as they have none
The simple task for the so called whstlblowers is to bring forward a tape or recording of him saying those words and he has to resign following his HOC denial today
I would also caution those who may want to accuse Boris, that in view of how angry he was they do not stray into controversial legal territory
I wonder also if the refurbishment funding might be set alongside the government decision not to help the leaseholders in flats where government legislation has put them on the hook for £90k or so to pay for replacement of flammable insulation. The comparison isn’t exactly fair, but neither is the treatment of the leaseholders.
Ooo yes. This should be memo'd to SKS pronto if you have his co-ordinates.
The government has "made leaseholders responsible" for anything. A combination of the terms of their leases and the malpractice and subsequent collapse of the building firms responsible has hung them out to dry, along with a critical shortage of appropriately qualified surveyors.
BREAKING: Arlene Foster says she will step down as DUP leader and Northern Ireland’s First Minister, following calls within the party for a leadership contest. More on @SkyNews now.
Which means that the next leader will be more unionist and Sinn Fein will win the 2022 election.
Not at all, Sinn Fein are only ahead now as the DUP have lost hardliners to Traditional Unionist Voice.
The latest NI Assembly poll has Sinn Fein on 24%, the DUP on 19%, the Alliance on 18% and the SDLP on 13%, the UUP on 12% and Traditional Unionist Voice on 10%.
If you are a moderate Unionist you will already be voting UUP not DUP. If you are a centrist you will be voting Alliance not DUP and if you are a Nationalist you will obviously never vote DUP anyway.
It is hardliners the DUP needs to win back
If the DUP moves to win back hardliners they are likely to lose softer voters to the Alliance.
No they won't.
Nobody who is voting DUP will ever vote Alliance, UUP or TUV is as far as they will go.
Equally nobody who is voting Alliance would ever vote DUP, UUP or SDLP would be as far as they would go.
It is voters lost to the TUV the DUP have to win back to retake the lead from SF
Not quite true, there is a large element of negative voting in NI especially when its FPTP. So otherwise moderate people will vote for people they dont like because they like the other lot even less.
From a politician with no axe to grind (former Chief Minister of Guernsey):
In my contact through @BICSecretariat, I always found @DUPleader personally courteous and polite as well as clear and forthright in expressing her views during British-Irish Council Summit meetings. I wish her and her family well for her future after she steps down.
BREAKING: Arlene Foster says she will step down as DUP leader and Northern Ireland’s First Minister, following calls within the party for a leadership contest. More on @SkyNews now.
Which means that the next leader will be more unionist and Sinn Fein will win the 2022 election.
As Mr Herdson observes:
In the current climate, this can only mean a shift to a more hardline position. That's a normal tendency of leadership elections as candidates chase members' votes but will likely be magnified this time because of anger about the NI-GB border.
Yep - it's a swing to the headline with middle class unionists probably heading towards the Alliance as they will have a chance of winning.
HUYFD has this idea that all votes are split on religious lines but that really isn't the case when you start looking at those with a university education.
What price a UUP recovery? On which note whatever happened to @Lucian_Fletcher ? He was the go to guy on NI and the UUP in particular.
Funny you mention that, I was about to message him and Alanbrooke to see if they are up for a guest piece on this.
The one thing that came out of PMQs for me was Boris's denial he said those words and challenged those who said he had to bring forward their evidence, as they have none
The simple task for the so called whstlblowers is to bring forward a tape or recording of him saying those words and he has to resign following his HOC denial today
I would also caution those who may want to accuse Boris, that in view of how angry he was they do not stray into contravesal legal territory
I would love to see Boris Johnson try to sue someone accusing him of lying for libel. It would be like Jeremy Corbyn suing someone for calling him anti-Semitic.
There are people in Northern Ireland with a British identity, others are Irish, others are Northern Irish, others are a mixture of all three and some are new and emerging. We must all learn to be generous to each other, live together and share this wonderful country.
The future of unionism and Northern Ireland will not be found in division, it will only be found in sharing this place we all are privileged to call home.
I wonder also if the refurbishment funding might be set alongside the government decision not to help the leaseholders in flats where government legislation has put them on the hook for £90k or so to pay for replacement of flammable insulation. The comparison isn’t exactly fair, but neither is the treatment of the leaseholders.
Ooo yes. This should be memo'd to SKS pronto if you have his co-ordinates.
The government has "made leaseholders responsible" for anything. A combination of the terms of their leases and the malpractice and subsequent collapse of the building firms responsible has hung them out to dry, along with a critical shortage of appropriately qualified surveyors.
Yes, this is a massive issue. It's impacting (negatively) a large proportion of the people I know in the flesh & blood arena. In less exceptional times I think it would be really featuring.
As BBC Political Correspondent, a lot of what LauraK does is report on what the government of the day is saying, from Government sources, so she'll seem biased to whoever is in power. Didn't we call Nick Robinson "toenails," when Gordon Brown was PM, but I didn't see bias from him against Cameron when he took power. She's just doing her job.
BREAKING: Arlene Foster says she will step down as DUP leader and Northern Ireland’s First Minister, following calls within the party for a leadership contest. More on @SkyNews now.
Which means that the next leader will be more unionist and Sinn Fein will win the 2022 election.
Not at all, Sinn Fein are only ahead now as the DUP have lost hardliners to Traditional Unionist Voice.
The latest NI Assembly poll has Sinn Fein on 24%, the DUP on 19%, the Alliance on 18% and the SDLP on 13%, the UUP on 12% and Traditional Unionist Voice on 10%.
If you are a moderate Unionist you will already be voting UUP not DUP. If you are a centrist you will be voting Alliance not DUP and if you are a Nationalist you will obviously never vote DUP anyway.
It is hardliners the DUP needs to win back
If the DUP moves to win back hardliners they are likely to lose softer voters to the Alliance.
No they won't.
Nobody who is voting DUP will ever vote Alliance, UUP or TUV is as far as they will go.
Equally nobody who is voting Alliance would ever vote DUP, UUP or SDLP would be as far as they would go.
It is voters lost to the TUV the DUP have to win back to retake the lead from SF
Not quite true, there is a large element of negative voting in NI especially when its FPTP. So otherwise moderate people will vote for people they dont like because they like the other lot even less.
In a few constituencies like Fermanagh and South Tyrone where the UUP are the main opponents to SF, in most constituencies however the DUP are the main Unionist party.
At Stormont constituencies are less relevant anywhere as it is pure STV PR
I just read that the WHO is opening up COVAX for individual donations. Great idea, once they give the details I'm going to make a donation and I'd urge all PBers to do the same if that can. Ultimately, it's on all of us to get this under control and we can't be a vaccinated island watching the rest of the world burn.
I think my per capita share of the cut in the international aid budget is about £100. How many AZ doses could I buy with that?
I just read that the WHO is opening up COVAX for individual donations. Great idea, once they give the details I'm going to make a donation and I'd urge all PBers to do the same if that can. Ultimately, it's on all of us to get this under control and we can't be a vaccinated island watching the rest of the world burn.
I think my per capita share of the cut in the international aid budget is about £100. How many AZ doses could I buy with that?
About 30, but they'll end up sitting in an Emergent Biosciences warehouse in Baltimore.
The one thing that came out of PMQs for me was Boris's denial he said those words and challenged those who said he had to bring forward their evidence, as they have none
The simple task for the so called whstlblowers is to bring forward a tape or recording of him saying those words and he has to resign following his HOC denial today
I would also caution those who may want to accuse Boris, that in view of how angry he was they do not stray into contravesal legal territory
I would love to see Boris Johnson try to sue someone accusing him of lying for libel. It would be like Jeremy Corbyn suing someone for calling him anti-Semitic.
The one thing that came out of PMQs for me was Boris's denial he said those words and challenged those who said he had to bring forward their evidence, as they have none
The simple task for the so called whstlblowers is to bring forward a tape or recording of him saying those words and he has to resign following his HOC denial today
I would also caution those who may want to accuse Boris, that in view of how angry he was they do not stray into controversial legal territory
Do you think he knows there's no tape and therefore is safe to lie through his teeth about it?
My business partner is generally very supportive of Johnson. Not an enthusiast, but very much prefers him to any Labour offerings. He said to me today that the wallpaper doesn't worry him at all, but the bodies piled up comment does, adding it's exactly the sort of thing, the "stupid b******" would say.
So just froth? Maybe, but maybe not.
This is what I was thinking when Nick Robinson was cooing over Sarah Vine's favourable view of Boris Johnson's wallpaper this morning.
The press have decided that the refurbishment is the bigger story, for now, but the 'bodies' comment and issue will anger a lot more people, I think.
Derry Irvine spent a lot more on wallpaper iirc
You always seem to react to potential wrong doings by pointing out that someone on the other side probably did something worse. Two wrongs do not make a right. Boris either did something wrong or he didn't. What Derry Irvine did is irrelevant to Boris's situation.
Do I? While the left scream at Boris its fair play to comment that... let him who is without sin cast the first stone.
Its a tad ironic that journos, who are one the least trusted sections of our society, are critical of others . I wonder how honest journalists are with their expenses.
BREAKING: Arlene Foster says she will step down as DUP leader and Northern Ireland’s First Minister, following calls within the party for a leadership contest. More on @SkyNews now.
Which means that the next leader will be more unionist and Sinn Fein will win the 2022 election.
Not at all, Sinn Fein are only ahead now as the DUP have lost hardliners to Traditional Unionist Voice.
The latest NI Assembly poll has Sinn Fein on 24%, the DUP on 19%, the Alliance on 18% and the SDLP on 13%, the UUP on 12% and Traditional Unionist Voice on 10%.
If you are a moderate Unionist you will already be voting UUP not DUP. If you are a centrist you will be voting Alliance not DUP and if you are a Nationalist you will obviously never vote DUP anyway.
It is hardliners the DUP needs to win back
If the DUP moves to win back hardliners they are likely to lose softer voters to the Alliance.
No they won't.
Nobody who is voting DUP will ever vote Alliance, UUP or TUV is as far as they will go.
Equally nobody who is voting Alliance would ever vote DUP, UUP or SDLP would be as far as they would go.
It is voters lost to the TUV the DUP have to win back to retake the lead from SF
Unusual circumstances, I know, but can the 2010 General Election result in East Belfast, for example, be explained without very significant DUP/Alliance switching?
TUV went from 0% in East Belfast in 2005 to 5% in East Belfast in 2010 at the DUP's expense.
The Alliance vote now is also higher in East Belfast at 44% than it was in 2010 when they got 32%, so any middle class Unionists who might have switched to the Alliance have likely already done so.
The brute facts are these, currently the DUP trail SF by 5% with the TUV on 10% so if the DUP continued on their current course SF would win most seats next year, only by winning back hardliners lost to TUV can the DUP retake first place.
In NI terms Foster is May and the DUP need a Boris to recover votes lost to the TUV, the NI Brexit Party
The point in Belfast East in 2010 is the Alliance vote was up 25%, and DUP down 16%. It's almost impossible to model that without significant DUP to Alliance switching.
Overall, I simply think you underestimate the breadth of these churches. Plenty of people voted Corbyn in 2017 and Johnson in 2019 for instance - not vast numbers but enough to contribute to the result meaningfully. Ditto, there are material numbers of Obama/Trump voters. It's all a bit eccentric, sure. But you often go too far stereotyping party vote, and miss the fact that these things may not be huge but do happen and do matter.
Roll out the footy analogies... 'We are 6-0 up, in the last minute of the game, but sides have lost from here before...'
LOL
I'd like to think our journalists would ask about lifting restrictions early, but I suspect they will be wittering on about holidays again, and with a subsidary about decorating... I firmly believe we have enough evidence in terms of cases (not rising), population antibodies (thanks ONS), evidence of real world vaccine effects (both within patient, and in preventing/reducing transmission) to be less cautious, but I'd be amazed if any of the lobby ask about it.
It is very odd how the May 17 date is now seemingly set in stone. What the government could offer – through its own rules – is a raft of so-called test events with full crowds – e.g. Royal Ascot and the England vs Scotland Euro 2021 match at Wembley. Those dates are so close to the end date of June 21 (just a few days before it) that imposing restrictions on them seems farcical.
It’s still only small percentages allowed in arenas after the 17th, not full houses?
When they talk about fans in grounds, I hadn’t realised for Leicester semi you could only go if you lived in Brent. The fans looked more bemused than excited.
That's the point I'm making. The events I cite are a few days before 21 June – they should be allowed full crowds.
Do you think there will be full crowds everywhere after 21 June? It’s not mandatory is it, venues have right to restrict and distance.
No it's not mandatory. If Ascot want to run a half crowd then up to them, ditto Wembley, pandemic or no pandemic, that's their right. But given those events I cite are literally a few days before 21 June then mandating the restrictions is farcical.
To put that in clear terms: England play Scotland on Friday 18 June. That's the biggest football match on these shores for years. The restrictions are due to be lifted the following Monday. Under the current plans, Wembley would be limited to 10,000 fans – not even enough to meet Scotland's away allocation, never mind England's. If the game were staged just 60 hours later, they could sell out all 90,000 tickets.
Royal Ascot is the same week 15-19 June.
What exactly is your point? I find it hard to infer from your posts at times.
My point being that your point is a good one. 60 hours later could be potential sell out. So why not special dispensation for the full house?
Well, the date may have been fabricated on basis it is sixty hours this side in the first place. My point being, if it was sixty hours or more later, they wouldn’t have tried to sell anything near the full house. The government and scientists wouldn’t’ the have been comfortable with that, nor Wembley stadium.
After June 21st it’s not normal, it’s new normal.
Eh? What does this mean? There are games in the tournament after 21 June, that will not be subject to restrictions. Why should England vs Scotland be? What is "new normal"?
A phrase that the frit like to bandy around to make themselves feel better....
“ The Sputnik V vaccine Ad5 vector is evidently replication competent. The makers apparently neglected to delete E1, so getting this vaccine means being infected with live adenovirus 5.
That's a shocking error. Especially given all that we know about Ad5 and HIV susceptibility. Whatever authorisations this has need to be rescinded ASAP.
So the antivaxxers kinda have a point…
Nope. The vaccine in question hasn't been approved by our regulator. So that's a stupid post by you I'm afraid.
On the positive side, it should mean that an increasing number of people get vaccinated by Sputnik-5, and without having to bother with all the hassle of getting an injection.
Not necessarily, as this thread discusses. https://twitter.com/angie_rasmussen/status/1387397186372005893 ... I don't know enough about the specific AdV system used here, but it's reasonable to think that if E1 recombined w/ the Ad vector, it might replace spike. So that's doubly bad: you not only have a replication-competent Ad5, it's not expressing spike. Which is...the entire point....
Don't worry, I was making a gag. And clearly there is going to be a big problem of human immune systems recognising the adenovirus part of the vaccine (because they were infected with it through "escape"), and therefore making it massively less effective.
As BBC Political Correspondent, a lot of what LauraK does is report on what the government of the day is saying, from Government sources, so she'll seem biased to whoever is in power. Didn't we call Nick Robinson "toenails," when Gordon Brown was PM, but I didn't see bias from him against Cameron when he took power. She's just doing her job.
The problem I have with lauraK is that she managed to completely miss Theresa Mays election gamble. For someone so well connected, she monumentally misread / allowed herself to be mislead.
I was betting on that and lost a lot of money. Her job is to be critical, not just buy into the governments narrative and allow herself to be played like a violin.
I am sure the lefties on here are grateful to Mr Smithson for allowing them a thread to froth over. Its been a long time where the left have had to suck it up... Time to give them a moment to enjoy, if wallpaper be the subject of their wrath, so be it.
Wallpaper does seem an odd thing to give him a pasting over.
The one thing that came out of PMQs for me was Boris's denial he said those words and challenged those who said he had to bring forward their evidence, as they have none
The simple task for the so called whstlblowers is to bring forward a tape or recording of him saying those words and he has to resign following his HOC denial today
I would also caution those who may want to accuse Boris, that in view of how angry he was they do not stray into controversial legal territory
Do you think he knows there's no tape and therefore is safe to lie through his teeth about it?
What are the odds of a Machiavellian operative like Dom not having recorded on his mobile phone a ranting Johnson, for future leverage?
As BBC Political Correspondent, a lot of what LauraK does is report on what the government of the day is saying, from Government sources, so she'll seem biased to whoever is in power. Didn't we call Nick Robinson "toenails," when Gordon Brown was PM, but I didn't see bias from him against Cameron when he took power. She's just doing her job.
Fair point. It's just she often seems to simply pass on what she's been told without subjecting it to any due diligence or critical attention. So things sometimes get more weight than they should.
It is hard to predict how long such a regime can last, but two things can be forecast with confidence: the fall will be messy, and few who cheer Johnson today will boast of having done so once he is gone.
The author clearly doesn't read PB
The fanbois will never leave him...
Big_G made his amazing journey on a two-way street.
...and several times over. Maybe he was lost?
Do you enjoy being personal
Maybe I am just a loyal party member, apart from twice voting Blair.
And on Boris I would be quite content to see Rishi move into no 10 tomorrow
But Boris does annoy so many of his opponents who cannot stand him I find it quite amusing they do not seem to be getting anywhere
Mind you, next Thursday may change that perception
And at my age I have learnt a well known motto, adapt, adopt and improve and if I change my mind so be it
I'll owe you a pint of Felinfoel Double Dragon if RT becomes FM. You can hold me to that!
We both agree that is not going to happen
Though Adam Price taking FM is not a complete fantasy
The one thing that came out of PMQs for me was Boris's denial he said those words and challenged those who said he had to bring forward their evidence, as they have none
The simple task for the so called whstlblowers is to bring forward a tape or recording of him saying those words and he has to resign following his HOC denial today
I would also caution those who may want to accuse Boris, that in view of how angry he was they do not stray into contravesal legal territory
I would love to see Boris Johnson try to sue someone accusing him of lying for libel. It would be like Jeremy Corbyn suing someone for calling him anti-Semitic.
As BBC Political Correspondent, a lot of what LauraK does is report on what the government of the day is saying, from Government sources, so she'll seem biased to whoever is in power. Didn't we call Nick Robinson "toenails," when Gordon Brown was PM, but I didn't see bias from him against Cameron when he took power. She's just doing her job.
Bashing LauraK does seem to have become something of a national sport.
She's accused of bias from both the right and the left so maybe she is straighter that people think. Personally, I would find it hard to divine her political affiliation. If pressed I'd say a liberal but not sure.
It is hard to predict how long such a regime can last, but two things can be forecast with confidence: the fall will be messy, and few who cheer Johnson today will boast of having done so once he is gone.
The author clearly doesn't read PB
The fanbois will never leave him...
Big_G made his amazing journey on a two-way street.
...and several times over. Maybe he was lost?
Do you enjoy being personal
Maybe I am just a loyal party member, apart from twice voting Blair.
And on Boris I would be quite content to see Rishi move into no 10 tomorrow
But Boris does annoy so many of his opponents who cannot stand him I find it quite amusing they do not seem to be getting anywhere
Mind you, next Thursday may change that perception
And at my age I have learnt a well known motto, adapt, adopt and improve and if I change my mind so be it
I'll owe you a pint of Felinfoel Double Dragon if RT becomes FM. You can hold me to that!
We both agree that is not going to happen
Though Adam Price taking FM is not a complete fantasy
I'll happily buy you a pint of Double Dragon should that come to pass
As BBC Political Correspondent, a lot of what LauraK does is report on what the government of the day is saying, from Government sources, so she'll seem biased to whoever is in power. Didn't we call Nick Robinson "toenails," when Gordon Brown was PM, but I didn't see bias from him against Cameron when he took power. She's just doing her job.
Fair point. It's just she often seems to simply pass on what she's been told without subjecting it to any due diligence or critical attention. So things sometimes get more weight than they should.
She tweets to much, as do a lot of them. A lot of it is passing on placed snippets. A lot ends with a question mark.
These people need to be journalists not gossip mongers... verify what you're being told, interpret and translate it, and report the story, not the snippet.
The one thing that came out of PMQs for me was Boris's denial he said those words and challenged those who said he had to bring forward their evidence, as they have none
The simple task for the so called whstlblowers is to bring forward a tape or recording of him saying those words and he has to resign following his HOC denial today
I would also caution those who may want to accuse Boris, that in view of how angry he was they do not stray into controversial legal territory
Do you think he knows there's no tape and therefore is safe to lie through his teeth about it?
What are the odds of a Machiavellian operative like Dom not having recorded on his mobile phone a ranting Johnson, for future leverage?
And when would the best time to play such a recording be? say when sat in Parliament answering questions...
As BBC Political Correspondent, a lot of what LauraK does is report on what the government of the day is saying, from Government sources, so she'll seem biased to whoever is in power. Didn't we call Nick Robinson "toenails," when Gordon Brown was PM, but I didn't see bias from him against Cameron when he took power. She's just doing her job.
The problem I have with lauraK is that she managed to completely miss Theresa Mays election gamble. For someone so well connected, she monumentally misread / allowed herself to be mislead.
I was betting on that and lost a lot of money. Her job is to be critical, not just buy into the governments narrative and allow herself to be played like a violin.
I was a bit tongue-in-cheek earlier today calling her a 'BBC lefty' in response to someone saying she must be right because Momentum call her a Tory. The fact is I couldn't say if she's left or right, quite frankly I find her to be a very dull empty vessel.
All she does most of the time is copy and paste press releases by the parties. So sometimes it will be "government sources say [xyz]" and other times it will be "Labour sources say [abc]" but that's just copying and pasting what others are telling her.
No proper investigations, when she gets to ask questions whether to Boris, Hancock or Starmer, they're typically rather vapid questions. Hence all the questions from her and others about holidays etc knowing they won't get an answer. Nothing cutting or insightful against anyone.
She's simply really weak and not impressive at all. A Political Editor really ought to be able to do more than just copy and paste the soundbites that others wish to give to them.
The one thing that came out of PMQs for me was Boris's denial he said those words and challenged those who said he had to bring forward their evidence, as they have none
The simple task for the so called whstlblowers is to bring forward a tape or recording of him saying those words and he has to resign following his HOC denial today
I would also caution those who may want to accuse Boris, that in view of how angry he was they do not stray into controversial legal territory
Do you think he knows there's no tape and therefore is safe to lie through his teeth about it?
What are the odds of a Machiavellian operative like Dom not having recorded on his mobile phone a ranting Johnson, for future leverage?
I'm finding this one hard to call. I can see why he might have the goods. But somehow I just can't see that moment where the tape comes out and we're all listening to it and going, "Ooo, Boris!" That's an American type happening. No, I think not. Pity.
I am sure the lefties on here are grateful to Mr Smithson for allowing them a thread to froth over. Its been a long time where the left have had to suck it up... Time to give them a moment to enjoy, if wallpaper be the subject of their wrath, so be it.
As Boris paid for the wallpaper himself it makes it even more bizarre
I just read that the WHO is opening up COVAX for individual donations. Great idea, once they give the details I'm going to make a donation and I'd urge all PBers to do the same if that can. Ultimately, it's on all of us to get this under control and we can't be a vaccinated island watching the rest of the world burn.
I think my per capita share of the cut in the international aid budget is about £100. How many AZ doses could I buy with that?
The one thing that came out of PMQs for me was Boris's denial he said those words and challenged those who said he had to bring forward their evidence, as they have none
The simple task for the so called whstlblowers is to bring forward a tape or recording of him saying those words and he has to resign following his HOC denial today
I would also caution those who may want to accuse Boris, that in view of how angry he was they do not stray into controversial legal territory
Do you think he knows there's no tape and therefore is safe to lie through his teeth about it?
What are the odds of a Machiavellian operative like Dom not having recorded on his mobile phone a ranting Johnson, for future leverage?
And when would the best time to play such a recording be? say when sat in Parliament answering questions...
I understand he was not present when the alleged remarks were made by Boris
As BBC Political Correspondent, a lot of what LauraK does is report on what the government of the day is saying, from Government sources, so she'll seem biased to whoever is in power. Didn't we call Nick Robinson "toenails," when Gordon Brown was PM, but I didn't see bias from him against Cameron when he took power. She's just doing her job.
The problem I have with lauraK is that she managed to completely miss Theresa Mays election gamble. For someone so well connected, she monumentally misread / allowed herself to be mislead.
I was betting on that and lost a lot of money. Her job is to be critical, not just buy into the governments narrative and allow herself to be played like a violin.
I was a bit tongue-in-cheek earlier today calling her a 'BBC lefty' in response to someone saying she must be right because Momentum call her a Tory. The fact is I couldn't say if she's left or right, quite frankly I find her to be a very dull empty vessel.
All she does most of the time is copy and paste press releases by the parties. So sometimes it will be "government sources say [xyz]" and other times it will be "Labour sources say [abc]" but that's just copying and pasting what others are telling her.
No proper investigations, when she gets to ask questions whether to Boris, Hancock or Starmer, they're typically rather vapid questions. Hence all the questions from her and others about holidays etc knowing they won't get an answer. Nothing cutting or insightful against anyone.
She's simply really weak and not impressive at all. A Political Editor really ought to be able to do more than just copy and paste the soundbites that others wish to give to them.
I would imagine she is on text message terms with many senior politicians and hence whatever she says has gone through the filter of plausibility from those "sources" which are not to be sniffed at.
I am sure the lefties on here are grateful to Mr Smithson for allowing them a thread to froth over. Its been a long time where the left have had to suck it up... Time to give them a moment to enjoy, if wallpaper be the subject of their wrath, so be it.
KS's advisors probably suggested throwing some policies against the wall to see if they stick, so of course SirKS plumped for wallpaper.
The one thing that came out of PMQs for me was Boris's denial he said those words and challenged those who said he had to bring forward their evidence, as they have none
The simple task for the so called whstlblowers is to bring forward a tape or recording of him saying those words and he has to resign following his HOC denial today
I would also caution those who may want to accuse Boris, that in view of how angry he was they do not stray into controversial legal territory
Do you think he knows there's no tape and therefore is safe to lie through his teeth about it?
What are the odds of a Machiavellian operative like Dom not having recorded on his mobile phone a ranting Johnson, for future leverage?
I'm finding this one hard to call. I can see why he might have the goods. But somehow I just can't see that moment where the tape comes out and we're all listening to it and going, "Ooo, Boris!" That's an American type happening. No, I think not. Pity.
Dom might be (and I am not saying he is) the sort of duplicitous b****** who would record EVERYTHING.
Nestlé to cut almost 600 jobs as it closes UK factory and moves some production to Europe
Detail: It said it plans to invest £20.2m in York to "modernise and increase production of KitKat in the city where the brand was first created in 1935".
A further £9.2m will be invested in Halifax to "equip the factory to take on the largest portion of Fawdon's current production"
I guess "consolidating production and investing in £29,400,000 in other UK production sites" is not as "newsworthy" as moves some production to Europe when the "largest proportion" is staying in the UK.....
I am sure the lefties on here are grateful to Mr Smithson for allowing them a thread to froth over. Its been a long time where the left have had to suck it up... Time to give them a moment to enjoy, if wallpaper be the subject of their wrath, so be it.
As Boris paid for the wallpaper himself it makes it even more bizarre
Seriously doubt your PM pays for ANYTHING himself. Just like his role model Trumpsky.
BREAKING: Arlene Foster says she will step down as DUP leader and Northern Ireland’s First Minister, following calls within the party for a leadership contest. More on @SkyNews now.
Which means that the next leader will be more unionist and Sinn Fein will win the 2022 election.
As Mr Herdson observes:
In the current climate, this can only mean a shift to a more hardline position. That's a normal tendency of leadership elections as candidates chase members' votes but will likely be magnified this time because of anger about the NI-GB border.
It does occur to me that Fosters resignation is not a good moment for NI
Does anyone on PB know if any party at all in NI has an actual workable policy, without unicorns, on what the UK policy on the implementation of Brexit with regard to RoI, NI and the border should be as from where we are now?
If none have one then it is fair to say that there isn't one available. Which would be a critical fact right now.
As BBC Political Correspondent, a lot of what LauraK does is report on what the government of the day is saying, from Government sources, so she'll seem biased to whoever is in power. Didn't we call Nick Robinson "toenails," when Gordon Brown was PM, but I didn't see bias from him against Cameron when he took power. She's just doing her job.
The problem I have with lauraK is that she managed to completely miss Theresa Mays election gamble. For someone so well connected, she monumentally misread / allowed herself to be mislead.
I was betting on that and lost a lot of money. Her job is to be critical, not just buy into the governments narrative and allow herself to be played like a violin.
I was a bit tongue-in-cheek earlier today calling her a 'BBC lefty' in response to someone saying she must be right because Momentum call her a Tory. The fact is I couldn't say if she's left or right, quite frankly I find her to be a very dull empty vessel.
All she does most of the time is copy and paste press releases by the parties. So sometimes it will be "government sources say [xyz]" and other times it will be "Labour sources say [abc]" but that's just copying and pasting what others are telling her.
No proper investigations, when she gets to ask questions whether to Boris, Hancock or Starmer, they're typically rather vapid questions. Hence all the questions from her and others about holidays etc knowing they won't get an answer. Nothing cutting or insightful against anyone.
She's simply really weak and not impressive at all. A Political Editor really ought to be able to do more than just copy and paste the soundbites that others wish to give to them.
I would imagine she is on text message terms with many senior politicians and hence whatever she says has gone through the filter of plausibility from those "sources" which are not to be sniffed at.
Oh absolutely, but as I said that's just copying and pasting what others want to say.
She really ought to be more competent at stuff other than that. As she represents the BBC she's almost inevitably the first journalist to be called to ask a question, so should have a humdinger lined up sometimes, but its always vapid stuff. When was the last time she asked something unexpected and insightful? I can't think of any time.
BREAKING: Arlene Foster says she will step down as DUP leader and Northern Ireland’s First Minister, following calls within the party for a leadership contest. More on @SkyNews now.
Which means that the next leader will be more unionist and Sinn Fein will win the 2022 election.
Not at all, Sinn Fein are only ahead now as the DUP have lost hardliners to Traditional Unionist Voice.
The latest NI Assembly poll has Sinn Fein on 24%, the DUP on 19%, the Alliance on 18% and the SDLP on 13%, the UUP on 12% and Traditional Unionist Voice on 10%.
If you are a moderate Unionist you will already be voting UUP not DUP. If you are a centrist you will be voting Alliance not DUP and if you are a Nationalist you will obviously never vote DUP anyway.
It is hardliners the DUP needs to win back
If the DUP moves to win back hardliners they are likely to lose softer voters to the Alliance.
No they won't.
Nobody who is voting DUP will ever vote Alliance, UUP or TUV is as far as they will go.
Equally nobody who is voting Alliance would ever vote DUP, UUP or SDLP would be as far as they would go.
It is voters lost to the TUV the DUP have to win back to retake the lead from SF
Unusual circumstances, I know, but can the 2010 General Election result in East Belfast, for example, be explained without very significant DUP/Alliance switching?
TUV went from 0% in East Belfast in 2005 to 5% in East Belfast in 2010 at the DUP's expense.
The Alliance vote now is also higher in East Belfast at 44% than it was in 2010 when they got 32%, so any middle class Unionists who might have switched to the Alliance have likely already done so.
The brute facts are these, currently the DUP trail SF by 5% with the TUV on 10% so if the DUP continued on their current course SF would win most seats next year, only by winning back hardliners lost to TUV can the DUP retake first place.
In NI terms Foster is May and the DUP need a Boris to recover votes lost to the TUV, the NI Brexit Party
The point in Belfast East in 2010 is the Alliance vote was up 25%, and DUP down 16%. It's almost impossible to model that without significant DUP to Alliance switching.
Overall, I simply think you underestimate the breadth of these churches. Plenty of people voted Corbyn in 2017 and Johnson in 2019 for instance - not vast numbers but enough to contribute to the result meaningfully. Ditto, there are material numbers of Obama/Trump voters. It's all a bit eccentric, sure. But you often go too far stereotyping party vote, and miss the fact that these things may not be huge but do happen and do matter.
And, AIUI, fewer young people are (or were) leaving NI these days, and some at least of the older, more hidebound, DUP-ers must of necessity have 'faced the final curtain'. What was the age range of deaths in Norn as a result of Covid? We know that it disproportionately affects those in disadvantaged areas.
As BBC Political Correspondent, a lot of what LauraK does is report on what the government of the day is saying, from Government sources, so she'll seem biased to whoever is in power. Didn't we call Nick Robinson "toenails," when Gordon Brown was PM, but I didn't see bias from him against Cameron when he took power. She's just doing her job.
The problem I have with lauraK is that she managed to completely miss Theresa Mays election gamble. For someone so well connected, she monumentally misread / allowed herself to be mislead.
I was betting on that and lost a lot of money. Her job is to be critical, not just buy into the governments narrative and allow herself to be played like a violin.
I was a bit tongue-in-cheek earlier today calling her a 'BBC lefty' in response to someone saying she must be right because Momentum call her a Tory. The fact is I couldn't say if she's left or right, quite frankly I find her to be a very dull empty vessel.
All she does most of the time is copy and paste press releases by the parties. So sometimes it will be "government sources say [xyz]" and other times it will be "Labour sources say [abc]" but that's just copying and pasting what others are telling her.
No proper investigations, when she gets to ask questions whether to Boris, Hancock or Starmer, they're typically rather vapid questions. Hence all the questions from her and others about holidays etc knowing they won't get an answer. Nothing cutting or insightful against anyone.
She's simply really weak and not impressive at all. A Political Editor really ought to be able to do more than just copy and paste the soundbites that others wish to give to them.
Wahay. Big big moment. Thompson walks back a piece of nonsense. Hats off in fact - and fine to claim tongue in cheek.
I am sure the lefties on here are grateful to Mr Smithson for allowing them a thread to froth over. Its been a long time where the left have had to suck it up... Time to give them a moment to enjoy, if wallpaper be the subject of their wrath, so be it.
As Boris paid for the wallpaper himself it makes it even more bizarre
Seriously doubt your PM pays for ANYTHING himself. Just like his role model Trumpsky.
He must pay for something. He earns enough dosh and given he's skint must spend all the dosh he earns one way or another.
What proportion of the population needs antibodies to trigger for herd immunity with the Kent R? 68% is adults only of course, kiddiewinks will drag it down.
If kiddies are 20% of the population, that equates to about 54.5% of the total population. So I'd say we need another 13m or so first doses to get there.
The presser won't be good news (as in early unlockdown good news) because without fail that would be Bozza delivering it. Despite the flak he would take for Wallpapergate.
BREAKING: Arlene Foster says she will step down as DUP leader and Northern Ireland’s First Minister, following calls within the party for a leadership contest. More on @SkyNews now.
Which means that the next leader will be more unionist and Sinn Fein will win the 2022 election.
Not at all, Sinn Fein are only ahead now as the DUP have lost hardliners to Traditional Unionist Voice.
The latest NI Assembly poll has Sinn Fein on 24%, the DUP on 19%, the Alliance on 18% and the SDLP on 13%, the UUP on 12% and Traditional Unionist Voice on 10%.
If you are a moderate Unionist you will already be voting UUP not DUP. If you are a centrist you will be voting Alliance not DUP and if you are a Nationalist you will obviously never vote DUP anyway.
It is hardliners the DUP needs to win back
If the DUP moves to win back hardliners they are likely to lose softer voters to the Alliance.
No they won't.
Nobody who is voting DUP will ever vote Alliance, UUP or TUV is as far as they will go.
Equally nobody who is voting Alliance would ever vote DUP, UUP or SDLP would be as far as they would go.
It is voters lost to the TUV the DUP have to win back to retake the lead from SF
Unusual circumstances, I know, but can the 2010 General Election result in East Belfast, for example, be explained without very significant DUP/Alliance switching?
TUV went from 0% in East Belfast in 2005 to 5% in East Belfast in 2010 at the DUP's expense.
The Alliance vote now is also higher in East Belfast at 44% than it was in 2010 when they got 32%, so any middle class Unionists who might have switched to the Alliance have likely already done so.
The brute facts are these, currently the DUP trail SF by 5% with the TUV on 10% so if the DUP continued on their current course SF would win most seats next year, only by winning back hardliners lost to TUV can the DUP retake first place.
In NI terms Foster is May and the DUP need a Boris to recover votes lost to the TUV, the NI Brexit Party
The point in Belfast East in 2010 is the Alliance vote was up 25%, and DUP down 16%. It's almost impossible to model that without significant DUP to Alliance switching.
Overall, I simply think you underestimate the breadth of these churches. Plenty of people voted Corbyn in 2017 and Johnson in 2019 for instance - not vast numbers but enough to contribute to the result meaningfully. Ditto, there are material numbers of Obama/Trump voters. It's all a bit eccentric, sure. But you often go too far stereotyping party vote, and miss the fact that these things may not be huge but do happen and do matter.
They did so to get Brexit done. DUP voters have switched to TUV to stop the NI Protocol and fight the Irish Sea border at all costs.
The number of Obama/Trump voters was not very many at all given Trump got a lower voteshare in 2016 than Romney did in 2012. It was Obama voters who went 3rd party or stayed home in 2016 and for Biden in 2020 who were key.
The key point remains under Foster the DUP were 5% behind SF, if they continued as they were then SF would be the largest party next year.
Only by regaining hardline Unionist voters lost to TUV (now polling 10%) could the DUP have a chance to regain first place and beat SF again (SF having no equivalent party like TUV to lose hardline Nationalists too like the SNP now have Alba for example)
The one thing that came out of PMQs for me was Boris's denial he said those words and challenged those who said he had to bring forward their evidence, as they have none
The simple task for the so called whstlblowers is to bring forward a tape or recording of him saying those words and he has to resign following his HOC denial today
I would also caution those who may want to accuse Boris, that in view of how angry he was they do not stray into controversial legal territory
Do you think he knows there's no tape and therefore is safe to lie through his teeth about it?
What are the odds of a Machiavellian operative like Dom not having recorded on his mobile phone a ranting Johnson, for future leverage?
Which points back to the central mystery:
What does D Cummings want?
It can't be a something, like a job or a policy. He's been so obvious in threatening BoJo that anything he gets will look like a blatant payoff. If the plan was blackmail, it would need to be discreet; hack into the Downing Street streetlights to flash out a coded message or something.
Tempting to think that it's to catapult Gove into No 10, and the clock is really ticking on that one now, but that would be mad. Though that doesn't rule it out.
Is it just to destroy Boris, whether for revenge or guilt? It might also destroy Dom, but as things stand, he's dead anyway- so what's he got to lose?
Comments
If indeed they're capable of opening say 10 May after a week to order stock, clean lines and get everything ready, then they're still better off by an entire week. An entire week in May, one of the busiest months in the year, its criminal to be saying they have to be shut by law. So best case they can reopen sooner, medium case they can reopen a bit sooner, worst case they stick to the original timeline. Win/win/neutral - no punishment.
Where I am, the households rules have already completely broken down and you still have to travel a very long way to find an area of map with more than 0-3 weekly cases.
Nobody who is voting DUP will ever vote Alliance, UUP or TUV is as far as they will go.
Equally nobody who is voting Alliance would ever vote DUP, UUP or SDLP would be as far as they would go.
It is voters lost to the TUV the DUP have to win back to retake the lead from SF
However, I fear the situation will be worse for her departure.
50.4% have had one dose, 33.5% fully vaccinated. I am unsure if this is adults or total population.
Not really read a great deal from him. Andrew Rawnsley, Tim Shipman and Peter Oborne are okay. Can’t say I go out of my way to read a great deal of political commentary. The threads here are usually okay.
The comparison isn’t exactly fair, but neither is the treatment of the leaseholders.
Increase in protection across all four UK nations"
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/thanks-to-vaccines-68-of-adults-in-england-have-covid-antibodies-phm59rm25
- Anonymous, but correct, Leader of the Opposition
(Sorry to be so sarky, but how on earth is attacking Johnson for not giving enough credit to the vaccination effort possibly the right move?!)
I wasn’t dissing him, just using it as a hook to point out we don’t really know what’s going on with the Sputnik vaccine (and it might well vary from batch to batch).
In the current climate, this can only mean a shift to a more hardline position. That's a normal tendency of leadership elections as candidates chase members' votes but will likely be magnified this time because of anger about the NI-GB border.
Trouble ahead, I'm afraid.
https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1387422864119304194?s=20
Or potentially burned to death in your own home nightmare.
Closing borders is not a popular criticism of the PM, particularly as we (the Royal we) all spent much of the early summer gaming our holiday destinations to avoid Covid travel inconvenience.
Maybe I am just a loyal party member, apart from twice voting Blair.
And on Boris I would be quite content to see Rishi move into no 10 tomorrow
But Boris does annoy so many of his opponents who cannot stand him I find it quite amusing they do not seem to be getting anywhere
Mind you, next Thursday may change that perception
And at my age I have learnt a well known motto, adapt, adopt and improve and if I change my mind so be it
An easy trap to fall into when you care passionately about an issue.
There are people in Northern Ireland with a British identity, others are Irish, others are Northern Irish, others are a mixture of all three and some are new and emerging. We must all learn to be generous to each other, live together and share this wonderful country.
The future of unionism and Northern Ireland will not be found in division, it will only be found in sharing this place we all are privileged to call home.
https://mydup.com/news/statement-by-rt-hon-arlene-foster-mla?token=8hhrY5xG4j5Acq-vO2TBwEcF8MUd8yjC
https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/sleaze-claims-boris-johnson-red-wall-voters-flat-carrie-symonds-b932159.html?utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Twitter#Echobox=1619618417
HUYFD has this idea that all votes are split on religious lines but that really isn't the case when you start looking at those with a university education.
It is working class Unionists or middle class hardliners who are the DUP's core vote and it is they who they have been leaking to TUV
On which note whatever happened to @Lucian_Fletcher ?
He was the go to guy on NI and the UUP in particular.
At worst, he's guilty of acting out of an abundance of caution.
The Alliance vote now is also higher in East Belfast at 44% than it was in 2010 when they got 32%, so any middle class Unionists who might have switched to the Alliance have likely already done so.
The brute facts are these, currently the DUP trail SF by 5% with the TUV on 10% so if the DUP continued on their current course SF would win most seats next year, only by winning back hardliners lost to TUV can the DUP retake first place.
In NI terms Foster is May and the DUP need a Boris to recover votes lost to the TUV, the NI Brexit Party
The simple task for the so called whstlblowers is to bring forward a tape or recording of him saying those words and he has to resign following his HOC denial today
I would also caution those who may want to accuse Boris, that in view of how angry he was they do not stray into controversial legal territory
In my contact through @BICSecretariat, I always found @DUPleader personally courteous and polite as well as clear and forthright in expressing her views during British-Irish Council Summit meetings. I wish her and her family well for her future after she steps down.
https://twitter.com/gavinstpier/status/1387430604044648452?s=20
At Stormont constituencies are less relevant anywhere as it is pure STV PR
Its a tad ironic that journos, who are one the least trusted sections of our society, are critical of others . I wonder how honest journalists are with their expenses.
Overall, I simply think you underestimate the breadth of these churches. Plenty of people voted Corbyn in 2017 and Johnson in 2019 for instance - not vast numbers but enough to contribute to the result meaningfully. Ditto, there are material numbers of Obama/Trump voters. It's all a bit eccentric, sure. But you often go too far stereotyping party vote, and miss the fact that these things may not be huge but do happen and do matter.
I was betting on that and lost a lot of money. Her job is to be critical, not just buy into the governments narrative and allow herself to be played like a violin.
Though Adam Price taking FM is not a complete fantasy
https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/04/28/brazil-rejects-the-gamaleya-vaccine
She's accused of bias from both the right and the left so maybe she is straighter that people think. Personally, I would find it hard to divine her political affiliation. If pressed I'd say a liberal but not sure.
These people need to be journalists not gossip mongers... verify what you're being told, interpret and translate it, and report the story, not the snippet.
All she does most of the time is copy and paste press releases by the parties. So sometimes it will be "government sources say [xyz]" and other times it will be "Labour sources say [abc]" but that's just copying and pasting what others are telling her.
No proper investigations, when she gets to ask questions whether to Boris, Hancock or Starmer, they're typically rather vapid questions. Hence all the questions from her and others about holidays etc knowing they won't get an answer. Nothing cutting or insightful against anyone.
She's simply really weak and not impressive at all. A Political Editor really ought to be able to do more than just copy and paste the soundbites that others wish to give to them.
Edit: I see Robert beat me to it.
Hospitalisations in particular at 124 v 192 last Weds.
He can see the writing on the wall, and he’s just spent nine grand having it papered...
https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/boris-johnson-downing-street-flat-scandal-b1838974.html https://twitter.com/tompeck/status/1387433692616921094/photo/1
Nestlé to cut almost 600 jobs as it closes UK factory and moves some production to Europe
Detail: It said it plans to invest £20.2m in York to "modernise and increase production of KitKat in the city where the brand was first created in 1935".
A further £9.2m will be invested in Halifax to "equip the factory to take on the largest portion of Fawdon's current production"
https://news.sky.com/story/nestl-to-cut-almost-600-jobs-as-it-closes-uk-factory-and-moves-some-production-to-europe-12289465
I guess "consolidating production and investing in £29,400,000 in other UK production sites" is not as "newsworthy" as moves some production to Europe when the "largest proportion" is staying in the UK.....
If none have one then it is fair to say that there isn't one available. Which would be a critical fact right now.
She really ought to be more competent at stuff other than that. As she represents the BBC she's almost inevitably the first journalist to be called to ask a question, so should have a humdinger lined up sometimes, but its always vapid stuff. When was the last time she asked something unexpected and insightful? I can't think of any time.
What was the age range of deaths in Norn as a result of Covid? We know that it disproportionately affects those in disadvantaged areas.
4.53 pm. 28th April 2021.
The number of Obama/Trump voters was not very many at all given Trump got a lower voteshare in 2016 than Romney did in 2012. It was Obama voters who went 3rd party or stayed home in 2016 and for Biden in 2020 who were key.
The key point remains under Foster the DUP were 5% behind SF, if they continued as they were then SF would be the largest party next year.
Only by regaining hardline Unionist voters lost to TUV (now polling 10%) could the DUP have a chance to regain first place and beat SF again (SF having no equivalent party like TUV to lose hardline Nationalists too like the SNP now have Alba for example)
What does D Cummings want?
It can't be a something, like a job or a policy. He's been so obvious in threatening BoJo that anything he gets will look like a blatant payoff. If the plan was blackmail, it would need to be discreet; hack into the Downing Street streetlights to flash out a coded message or something.
Tempting to think that it's to catapult Gove into No 10, and the clock is really ticking on that one now, but that would be mad. Though that doesn't rule it out.
Is it just to destroy Boris, whether for revenge or guilt? It might also destroy Dom, but as things stand, he's dead anyway- so what's he got to lose?