How big is your sample size for that? What odds will you offer me that Joe Biden will not get the Democratic nomination next time round?
I'm quite content on my betting position for 2016.
My sample goes all the way back to 1952.
So a sample set of four then?
Yes, put it this way, during the current primary format, no sitting Vice-President has failed to get his party's nomination, when he has gone for the nomination.
That's the indisputable fact.
Another indisputable fact: A vice-president hasn't won the nomination against a former First Lady who was runner up for the previous nomination then went on to be Secretary of State since at least the 1960s, if ever.
Hi Lucian - how are you doing? Hope you weren't in Oz to witness the humiliation? Having been on the 2002/3, 2006/7 and 2010/11 Ashes tours (and got out of Heathrow 24 hours before it shutdown with the bad weather in December 2010) I think I've dodged a few bullets on England cricket debacles, apart from being in Melbourne in 2006...although I did see Warne's 700th test wicket on a freezing boxing day back then!
I'm very much of the opinion that KP is behind all the trouble again....3rd strike and you're out after Moores 2009 and Strauss 2012 as far as I'm concerned if all the reports I'm getting are true. The Swann retirement statement, Selvey Guardian report, Vaughan comments today, the way KP got a bowl when the game was up in the 2nd innings in Sydney and KP's recent tweets all seem to point to that I think - your thoughts?
No. My trip to Aus was aborted by my impending arrival. I have no idea about the rights and wrongs of the KP/AF thing but he was right about Moores and Flower is a very lucky chap if he stays on. KP isn't behind all the players playing like dullard automatons.
KP bowling had more to do with Root being left out, is my thinking.
If I were in charge of the ECB I would ask Cook if he wants to be captain. If he does, I'd then ask him if he wants Flower, KP, both or neither.
If Cook doesn't want to be captain... um.
Whatever comes out in due course will be fascinating. Did you see this between KP and Root?
On Cook as captain, if my theory over KP is correct, then I'll excuse a lot given all the seeming distractions he was under. His captaincy of spinners leaves an awful lot to be desired, and I don't think he's the natural leader of men like Strauss was. The lack of any obvious alternative I think will save him. I think one of Cook, Flower or KP has to go though - lets see. It wouldn't surprise me to see the one day team perform much better, like 2006/7.....without KP there to get in the way.
Ecuador was absolutely amazing, every bit as good as I thought it was going to be. Anyone with an interest in wildlife / travelling has got to try to get to the Galapagos at some point...I feel incredibly priviledged to have been there given tourism has only been going there 30-35 years, and probably about 3 million people in total have been there as a tourist. Tourist numbers are effectively restricted now to 180k people per annum given the restriction of 100 tourist boats allowed to visit the islands.
Quito is a wonderful city, the old town is a great UNESCO heritage site, and the cable car (Teleferico) above the city is amazing too, with a lot of pleasant parks. Banos as an activity centre (poor mans version of Queenstown in New Zealand) is awesome too, and Cuenca is a beatiful colonial town as well. Was great to have feet in both hemispheres on the Equator as well near Cayambe. It was a shame I visitied Otavalo market on a Tuesday, when Saturday is the best day, but that was to fit in with when my Galapagos tour was leaving.
Having seen the Galapagos which was top of my tourist 'bucket' list, have got a lot of places now that I wish to visit having chatted away with my fellow travellers....such is life!
Nick, can you start a dip game on playdiplomacy? I'm sick of being stuffed by people I don't know. Much more fun with people who know who they are killing.
Lucian - it sounds good to me but I know HurstLlama tried last year and didn't get enough takers. Any other takers, folks?
As an alternative way of wasting time, there is a low-stakes private league on P*kerstars (typically $3 for an evening's tournament), which I play in as background while I'm translating to avoid dying of boredom - it's agreeable because there's a great deal of good-humoured banter and even an internet radio channel where the hosts natter inconsequentially, tell off-colour jokes and comment amiably about the players. I remember you said you liked low-stakes friendly games - if you want to join in (or anyone else here for that matter), you can do it via their website (google p*kerplayersplace, replacing the * by an o).
The strange belief, or just hope, that the tea party would either tone it down or be content with a more moderate Christie type candidacy doesn't appear to be borne out out by the likes of this.
Tea Party leader accuses pro-choice state senate candidate of being worse than rapists, murderers http://bit.ly/K74DEf
It's a fairly safe bet that if any of the upcoming GOP circus candidates try to pander to those kind of extremist views again then which Dem stands against them will be pretty academic.
@Hunchman, Ave It has been around, I upset him though, I pointed out what good managers Brendan Rodgers and Malky Mackay are when they leave a small club like Watford and go to top clubs like Liverpool and Cardiff.
next pb meet he isn't buying me drinks, he'll be spitting in them
Thanks TSE. I'm intrigued as to how Solskjaer is going to do at Cardiff? Malky's treatment was one of the worst things I've seen in football in a very long time....hope he gets a deserved decent job somewhere soon, am sure he will one way or another. Everything is a lot more interesting post-Ferguson. It's hard enough to follow an 11 and a half year serving prime minister, its similary nigh on impossible to follow a 26 year football manager reign. I think Utd will try to stick behind Moyes come hell and high water, with the influence of Ferguson and Bobby Charlton....the latter remembers well the strife they went through in the early 1970's following the end of the Busby era.
Being manager at Cardff is a bit like being a servant to Caligula.
Expect a short life expectancy and irrational actions from your Master.
Ok, I can see the parallels with Southampton ditching Adkins for Mauricio Pochettino, I can't imagine the Southampton chairman sending tactical notes during a match, or telling the players to shoot from distance.
United, are a curious thing, I'm a fan of Moyes, but I wonder, how the Glazers will be able to cope with servicing their debt and providing a suitable transfer budget whilst out the Champions League.
When the great economic meltdown finally arrives, I'm going to be fascinated to see how the music stops with the Premiership...yes the clubs will survive in an altered form following mass bankruptcy. If I had a legal mind, would love to train as a football contract lawyer....all those 4 or 5 year player / manager contracts that are going to be annulled....it'll be an incredible spectacle to witness.
The problem with Biden is he is 71 now and would be 74 at the date of his inauguration. Reagan is the oldest president to start his term, being 69 at inauguration. Hillary is not much younger at 66 currently and would be as old as Reagan at inauguration.
Surely the Dems must have someone younger and fresher?
The problem with Biden is he is 71 now and would be 74 at the date of his inauguration. Reagan is the oldest president to start his term, being 69 at inauguration. Hillary is not much younger at 66 currently and would be as old as Reagan at inauguration.
Surely the Dems must have someone younger and fresher?
The problem with Biden is that he has no base constituency in the Democratic party. No one describes themselves as a Biden Democrat.
Seems like the obvious continuity candidate if Hillary falls over though. If not him, who?
@Hunchman, Ave It has been around, I upset him though, I pointed out what good managers Brendan Rodgers and Malky Mackay are when they leave a small club like Watford and go to top clubs like Liverpool and Cardiff.
next pb meet he isn't buying me drinks, he'll be spitting in them
Thanks TSE. I'm intrigued as to how Solskjaer is going to do at Cardiff? Malky's treatment was one of the worst things I've seen in football in a very long time....hope he gets a deserved decent job somewhere soon, am sure he will one way or another. Everything is a lot more interesting post-Ferguson. It's hard enough to follow an 11 and a half year serving prime minister, its similary nigh on impossible to follow a 26 year football manager reign. I think Utd will try to stick behind Moyes come hell and high water, with the influence of Ferguson and Bobby Charlton....the latter remembers well the strife they went through in the early 1970's following the end of the Busby era.
Being manager at Cardff is a bit like being a servant to Caligula.
Expect a short life expectancy and irrational actions from your Master.
Ok, I can see the parallels with Southampton ditching Adkins for Mauricio Pochettino, I can't imagine the Southampton chairman sending tactical notes during a match, or telling the players to shoot from distance.
United, are a curious thing, I'm a fan of Moyes, but I wonder, how the Glazers will be able to cope with servicing their debt and providing a suitable transfer budget whilst out the Champions League.
When the great economic meltdown finally arrives, I'm going to be fascinated to see how the music stops with the Premiership...yes the clubs will survive in an altered form following mass bankruptcy. If I had a legal mind, would love to train as a football contract lawyer....all those 4 or 5 year player / manager contracts that are going to be annulled....it'll be an incredible spectacle to witness.
@Hunchman, Ave It has been around, I upset him though, I pointed out what good managers Brendan Rodgers and Malky Mackay are when they leave a small club like Watford and go to top clubs like Liverpool and Cardiff.
next pb meet he isn't buying me drinks, he'll be spitting in them
Thanks TSE. I'm intrigued as to how Solskjaer is going to do at Cardiff? Malky's treatment was one of the worst things I've seen in football in a very long time....hope he gets a deserved decent job somewhere soon, am sure he will one way or another. Everything is a lot more interesting post-Ferguson. It's hard enough to follow an 11 and a half year serving prime minister, its similary nigh on impossible to follow a 26 year football manager reign. I think Utd will try to stick behind Moyes come hell and high water, with the influence of Ferguson and Bobby Charlton....the latter remembers well the strife they went through in the early 1970's following the end of the Busby era.
Being manager at Cardff is a bit like being a servant to Caligula.
Expect a short life expectancy and irrational actions from your Master.
Ok, I can see the parallels with Southampton ditching Adkins for Mauricio Pochettino, I can't imagine the Southampton chairman sending tactical notes during a match, or telling the players to shoot from distance.
United, are a curious thing, I'm a fan of Moyes, but I wonder, how the Glazers will be able to cope with servicing their debt and providing a suitable transfer budget whilst out the Champions League.
When the great economic meltdown finally arrives, I'm going to be fascinated to see how the music stops with the Premiership...yes the clubs will survive in an altered form following mass bankruptcy. If I had a legal mind, would love to train as a football contract lawyer....all those 4 or 5 year player / manager contracts that are going to be annulled....it'll be an incredible spectacle to witness.
Meltdown of the prem o_O ?!
Exponential growth rates don't have a history of finishing well......
re Pietersen - Unfair perhaps, but you've got to be suspicious of someone who's number one fan is Piers Morgan. Having known Cook at school I expect he's an easy enough teammate to get along with but I don't imagine he's the sort of guy who'd thrive in a dressing room where there's a lot of conflict. Maybe that would call for someone like Hussain.
Nick, can you start a dip game on playdiplomacy? I'm sick of being stuffed by people I don't know. Much more fun with people who know who they are killing.
Lucian - it sounds good to me but I know HurstLlama tried last year and didn't get enough takers. Any other takers, folks?
As an alternative way of wasting time, there is a low-stakes private league on P*kerstars (typically $3 for an evening's tournament), which I play in as background while I'm translating to avoid dying of boredom - it's agreeable because there's a great deal of good-humoured banter and even an internet radio channel where the hosts natter inconsequentially, tell off-colour jokes and comment amiably about the players. I remember you said you liked low-stakes friendly games - if you want to join in (or anyone else here for that matter), you can do it via their website (google p*kerplayersplace, replacing the * by an o).
Can't get away with doing that at work or at home now the missus is there semi-permanently.
United, are a curious thing, I'm a fan of Moyes, but I wonder, how the Glazers will be able to cope with servicing their debt and providing a suitable transfer budget whilst out the Champions League.
Yes, that humungous debt was viable under fergie, but without...
I don't think the Glazers have the luxury of giving Moyes time. (not too much, anyway)
I have lurked on this site for many years and i think that banning people just because they have gone too far on an occassion is ott. I for one have always enjoyed seants contribution he brings humour and controversy to the debates and well the site has become boring dull and ogh has definately drifted from a non partisan position to left bias more and more. I think the site has lost its way
"I don't think the Glazers have the luxury of giving Moyes time. (not too much, anyway)"
Are you seriously suggesting that instead they can afford to pay off virtually his full six year contract said to be worth around £5 million per annum?
I remember the spat between tim and SeanT. Both had strayed well beyond reasonable banter, a temporary ban is a sensible bit of moderation to allow cooling off. I have been moderated myself on occasion and have no complaints about this.
I do not think Mike has drifted particularly politically since I have followed the site. I think he feels particularly strongly on some issues because of family connections, such as his dislike of Gove, but has also expressed the view that his preferred outcome in 2015 is for the current coalition to continue. Hardly a leftist view! It may just be that his centrist politics are not so far from my own.
One problem for leftist posters on here is that there is very little positive to say on the left. There is widespread dislike of many policies (I share Mikes dislike of Goves policies), and of welfare cuts, but there is very little alternative vision to expound. To an extent this is also true of the kippers.
It is much easier to find fault with any govt than to come up with an alternative that can work in the real world.
Curse this insomnia, but great to have nighthawks to fill the insomniac hours.
I have lurked on this site for many years and i think that banning people just because they have gone too far on an occassion is ott. I for one have always enjoyed seants contribution he brings humour and controversy to the debates and well the site has become boring dull and ogh has definately drifted from a non partisan position to left bias more and more. I think the site has lost its way
Comments
http://xkcd.com/1122/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkSwZgW49Lo
On Cook as captain, if my theory over KP is correct, then I'll excuse a lot given all the seeming distractions he was under. His captaincy of spinners leaves an awful lot to be desired, and I don't think he's the natural leader of men like Strauss was. The lack of any obvious alternative I think will save him. I think one of Cook, Flower or KP has to go though - lets see. It wouldn't surprise me to see the one day team perform much better, like 2006/7.....without KP there to get in the way.
Quito is a wonderful city, the old town is a great UNESCO heritage site, and the cable car (Teleferico) above the city is amazing too, with a lot of pleasant parks. Banos as an activity centre (poor mans version of Queenstown in New Zealand) is awesome too, and Cuenca is a beatiful colonial town as well. Was great to have feet in both hemispheres on the Equator as well near Cayambe. It was a shame I visitied Otavalo market on a Tuesday, when Saturday is the best day, but that was to fit in with when my Galapagos tour was leaving.
Having seen the Galapagos which was top of my tourist 'bucket' list, have got a lot of places now that I wish to visit having chatted away with my fellow travellers....such is life!
As an alternative way of wasting time, there is a low-stakes private league on P*kerstars (typically $3 for an evening's tournament), which I play in as background while I'm translating to avoid dying of boredom - it's agreeable because there's a great deal of good-humoured banter and even an internet radio channel where the hosts natter inconsequentially, tell off-colour jokes and comment amiably about the players. I remember you said you liked low-stakes friendly games - if you want to join in (or anyone else here for that matter), you can do it via their website (google p*kerplayersplace, replacing the * by an o).
It's a fairly safe bet that if any of the upcoming GOP circus candidates try to pander to those kind of extremist views again then which Dem stands against them will be pretty academic.
Good night all.
I don't think the Glazers have the luxury of giving Moyes time. (not too much, anyway)
Are you seriously suggesting that instead they can afford to pay off virtually his full six year contract said to be worth around £5 million per annum?
Whatever else one thinks of recent changes to the site, this is undeniably the case.
I do not think Mike has drifted particularly politically since I have followed the site. I think he feels particularly strongly on some issues because of family connections, such as his dislike of Gove, but has also expressed the view that his preferred outcome in 2015 is for the current coalition to continue. Hardly a leftist view! It may just be that his centrist politics are not so far from my own.
One problem for leftist posters on here is that there is very little positive to say on the left. There is widespread dislike of many policies (I share Mikes dislike of Goves policies), and of welfare cuts, but there is very little alternative vision to expound. To an extent this is also true of the kippers.
It is much easier to find fault with any govt than to come up with an alternative that can work in the real world.
Curse this insomnia, but great to have nighthawks to fill the insomniac hours.