Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Some important breaking news for those betting on the Mayor of London – politicalbetting.com

13»

Comments

  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639

    gealbhan said:

    eek said:

    I think it’s the Cummings leak story -

    🚨 | BREAKING: Downing Street has accused Dominic Cummings of leaking the PM’s texts

    Meh. I don't see how that's news.

    Cummings has been doing leaking since Day One.
    And if the Dyson story is the best he's got left Boris has little to worry about.
    That’s not how it’s done though. Get attention, then throw the meat.

    It feels like something big is about to blow. Governments never get an easy ride for long, a crap storm just as people are voting tends to be the norm.
    My wife and I have already returned our postal votes
    2-0 Drakeford?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098

    Fenman said:

    National insurance includes Pension contributions, pensions over 67s have already paid for. We need a new NI category for pensioners calculated to contribute to Care and Health, but not pensions or unemployment benefits. This does not seem unreasonable.

    Nothing has been already paid for, everything is pay as you go.

    NI should be merged with Income Tax and applied as a flat rate without exemptions for age, self-employment or anything else.
    No, return NI to what it was originally created for ie to pay for unemployment insurance, pensions and healthcare and add social care to the latter
  • gealbhan said:

    eek said:

    I think it’s the Cummings leak story -

    🚨 | BREAKING: Downing Street has accused Dominic Cummings of leaking the PM’s texts

    Meh. I don't see how that's news.

    Cummings has been doing leaking since Day One.
    And if the Dyson story is the best he's got left Boris has little to worry about.
    That’s not how it’s done though. Get attention, then throw the meat.

    It feels like something big is about to blow. Governments never get an easy ride for long, a crap storm just as people are voting tends to be the norm.
    My wife and I have already returned our postal votes
    2-0 Drakeford?
    Not ever ever would I vote Labour in Wales

    My family have suffered too much through their failures in health and education over the last 22 years
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,475

    Did I just wake up and Lawrence Fox was being spoken of as a potential MP. Which Universe am I in?

    Dunno. We debated multiverses a couple of weeks ago on PB one evening, but i can't remember the answer.
    The answers, surely?
    Very amusing, but don't call him Shirley.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    HYUFD said:

    Fenman said:

    National insurance includes Pension contributions, pensions over 67s have already paid for. We need a new NI category for pensioners calculated to contribute to Care and Health, but not pensions or unemployment benefits. This does not seem unreasonable.

    Nothing has been already paid for, everything is pay as you go.

    NI should be merged with Income Tax and applied as a flat rate without exemptions for age, self-employment or anything else.
    No, return NI to what it was originally created for ie to pay for unemployment insurance, pensions and healthcare and add social care to the latter
    So considering NI isn't enough to pay for all that, then how much are you going to slash pensions and healthcare by? 🤔
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751
    Floater said:

    Jeezus fecking christ Merkel

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1385339738132000769

    "I am still stunned at this. India is in the middle of a humanitarian catastrophe and all Merkel has to say is she is worried whether Indian pharmaceutical products “will still come to us”? "

    Surely just the flip side of the EU concerns that European pharmaceutical products should be prevented from "going to others"?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,531
    tlg86 said:


    Neil Henderson
    @hendopolis
    TELEGRAPH: Cummings accused of leaking No10 texts #TomorrowsPapersToday

    Ka fucking boom!
    I was wondering how they found their way to the press...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Husband of Allegra Stratton suggesting the Government might have found a solution to social care here:

    "The best solution, however, may be to require the over-40s to buy compulsory social care insurance. The premiums could be deducted directly from their monthly salaries in the same way that student loan repayments are taken off young graduates’ wages."

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-the-tories-can-solve-their-youth-problem-7lsx5zc53

    :lol:

    How to lose an election.
    It's been introduced for private pensions with no issues.

    I think it's more politically acceptable than ever greater council tax rises or selling one's home - the question is the mechanism for the premium, and the amount.
    It's new, so it will be hated.
    Ok, but my council tax is going up an extra 2% each and every year because of this already, so, the dog has to bark somewhere.
    My council tax has been flat for 6 years. Sadiq has increased his charge by 8% pa
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    Endillion said:

    kle4 said:

    The reason why Fox / Reform / Reclaim aren't making any headway is because Johnson has stolen their clothes.

    If, rather than being anti-woke, this administration pursued social-policy along the lines Cameron did then they'd be up to 10-12% in the polls.

    Isn't the main reason because Farage was banking on anti-lockdown sentiment driving support from disaffected Conservatives, and most people support harsh lockdown measures and those that don't are fractured into a dozen squabbling factions? And that while lots of people dislike what might be called excessive or pushy wokery, that is not something you can build a mass movement around? (like how green issues is not enough, as any party can go green, so Greens also go red)
    Interestingly, it's the Lib Dems who've been most able to capitalise on the anti-lockdown sentiment.
    It is just about possible that Ed Davey actually knows the meaning of the word "liberal".

    That would come as a nasty shock to their hordes (OK not "hordes", more like "both") of their remaining voters, who think they're supposed to be basically Labour-lite.
    Short memories, have they? LibDems were in coalition with the Conservatives less than a decade ago.
    Fewer than six years to be accurate.
  • londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,639
    Charles said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Husband of Allegra Stratton suggesting the Government might have found a solution to social care here:

    "The best solution, however, may be to require the over-40s to buy compulsory social care insurance. The premiums could be deducted directly from their monthly salaries in the same way that student loan repayments are taken off young graduates’ wages."

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-the-tories-can-solve-their-youth-problem-7lsx5zc53

    :lol:

    How to lose an election.
    It's been introduced for private pensions with no issues.

    I think it's more politically acceptable than ever greater council tax rises or selling one's home - the question is the mechanism for the premium, and the amount.
    It's new, so it will be hated.
    Ok, but my council tax is going up an extra 2% each and every year because of this already, so, the dog has to bark somewhere.
    My council tax has been flat for 6 years. Sadiq has increased his charge by 8% pa
    Remember the golden rule...under Labour you always pay more, always get less
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    Charles said:

    tlg86 said:

    tlg86 said:

    Husband of Allegra Stratton suggesting the Government might have found a solution to social care here:

    "The best solution, however, may be to require the over-40s to buy compulsory social care insurance. The premiums could be deducted directly from their monthly salaries in the same way that student loan repayments are taken off young graduates’ wages."

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-the-tories-can-solve-their-youth-problem-7lsx5zc53

    :lol:

    How to lose an election.
    It's been introduced for private pensions with no issues.

    I think it's more politically acceptable than ever greater council tax rises or selling one's home - the question is the mechanism for the premium, and the amount.
    It's new, so it will be hated.
    Ok, but my council tax is going up an extra 2% each and every year because of this already, so, the dog has to bark somewhere.
    My council tax has been flat for 6 years. Sadiq has increased his charge by 8% pa
    Remember the golden rule...under Labour you always pay more, always get less
    Strange. Cos I could swear my Tory council had jacked up the Council Tax. From a rate that already would make a Londoner's eyes water.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098
    Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    tlg86 said:

    Floater said:
    Could this do for Modi?
    Unlikely, the Indian Covid death rate of 134 per million is still well below the global average Covid death rate of 395 per million, yet alone our Covid death rate of 1,868 per milllion

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdUOA?Si

    A) it's a bit early to say, and India has a long way to go.

    B. it is highly unlikely that the published figures from India are complete.

    C) what happens in other countries matters less than what is happening in your own town. Hospitals running out of oxygen never looks good.
    India's younger than average population continues to keep its death rate down relative to the global average even if it sees more cases
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,098
    edited April 2021

    HYUFD said:

    Fenman said:

    National insurance includes Pension contributions, pensions over 67s have already paid for. We need a new NI category for pensioners calculated to contribute to Care and Health, but not pensions or unemployment benefits. This does not seem unreasonable.

    Nothing has been already paid for, everything is pay as you go.

    NI should be merged with Income Tax and applied as a flat rate without exemptions for age, self-employment or anything else.
    No, return NI to what it was originally created for ie to pay for unemployment insurance, pensions and healthcare and add social care to the latter
    So considering NI isn't enough to pay for all that, then how much are you going to slash pensions and healthcare by? 🤔
    It is, just shift what you pay in income tax for that to NI and leave income tax to fund defence, the police, schools funding, culture etc
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 27,920

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1385346515649114112

    Finally, some big picture thinking from Labour

    Loft laggers of the world unite.....this same plan gets reannounced every year, is as regular as the stories of strawberry shortages.
    Green infrastructure, green industrial revolution. Not much for Boris to disagree with, at least at the slogan level.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    dixiedean said:

    Endillion said:

    kle4 said:

    The reason why Fox / Reform / Reclaim aren't making any headway is because Johnson has stolen their clothes.

    If, rather than being anti-woke, this administration pursued social-policy along the lines Cameron did then they'd be up to 10-12% in the polls.

    Isn't the main reason because Farage was banking on anti-lockdown sentiment driving support from disaffected Conservatives, and most people support harsh lockdown measures and those that don't are fractured into a dozen squabbling factions? And that while lots of people dislike what might be called excessive or pushy wokery, that is not something you can build a mass movement around? (like how green issues is not enough, as any party can go green, so Greens also go red)
    Interestingly, it's the Lib Dems who've been most able to capitalise on the anti-lockdown sentiment.
    It is just about possible that Ed Davey actually knows the meaning of the word "liberal".

    That would come as a nasty shock to their hordes (OK not "hordes", more like "both") of their remaining voters, who think they're supposed to be basically Labour-lite.
    Short memories, have they? LibDems were in coalition with the Conservatives less than a decade ago.
    Fewer than six years to be accurate.
    What a long f**king 6 years.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,870
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    kle4 said:

    For some reason when I saw the headline about important breaking news about the London mayoralty I assumed it was going to be about Brian Rose and urine.

    But there's some solid deadpan sass nevertheless.

    I saw that earlier and nearly barfed.

    I wasn't going to inflict that on PBers, I do have some decorum, believe it or not.
    I've arrived late to this story. Does it involve PVC and rubber hoses?
    No, you don't want to know, even I'm puking at such depravity.
    It’s how you survive if you get lost in the jungle. Urine is about 95% water.
    Not a good idea.

    If you are dehydrated, urine will be more concentrated than plasma and worsen your osmotic stress.

    Urine can be safely drunk if you are very well hydrated as it will be very dilute. Though why would you want to?
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iITtVjtr5-Y
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    https://twitter.com/PoliticsForAlI/status/1385346515649114112

    Finally, some big picture thinking from Labour

    Loft laggers of the world unite.....this same plan gets reannounced every year, is as regular as the stories of strawberry shortages.
    Green infrastructure, green industrial revolution. Not much for Boris to disagree with, at least at the slogan level.
    Get Green Done!
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Chris said:

    Floater said:

    Jeezus fecking christ Merkel

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1385339738132000769

    "I am still stunned at this. India is in the middle of a humanitarian catastrophe and all Merkel has to say is she is worried whether Indian pharmaceutical products “will still come to us”? "

    Surely just the flip side of the EU concerns that European pharmaceutical products should be prevented from "going to others"?
    The Indian Foreign Minister is pretty good on why vaccine exports need to continue in order to keep global supply chains going.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,206
    edited April 2021
    I know the BBC isn't good with numbers, but is this their worst effort at explaining something yet? The don't seem to understand how vaccine based herd immunity works at-all, and seem to be implying that if the vaccines are 90% effective, 10% of the population will get covid anyway 🤔. They therefore imply that contact tracing, face masks, endless testing will be required for ever. I presume none of them stop to wonder why we aren't in a permanent measles epidemic without such measures.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-40ac92b1-1750-4e86-9936-2cda6b0acb3f

    Frankly every single person involved in publishing this misleading rubbish should be dismissed immediately without compensation on the grounds of gross stupidity.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,585
    edited April 2021
    Floater said:

    Jeezus fecking christ Merkel

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1385339738132000769

    "I am still stunned at this. India is in the middle of a humanitarian catastrophe and all Merkel has to say is she is worried whether Indian pharmaceutical products “will still come to us”? "

    Merkel hasn't done anything wrong here. Her job is to do everything she can for Germans as far as Covid 19 is concerned.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,206
    Floater said:

    Jeezus fecking christ Merkel

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1385339738132000769

    "I am still stunned at this. India is in the middle of a humanitarian catastrophe and all Merkel has to say is she is worried whether Indian pharmaceutical products “will still come to us”? "

    Yes. She is keen to make sure that Germans get the vaccines they paid for.

    How is her behaviour any different to the behaviour of our government?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,206

    Erhhhh...that isn't in the rules...

    The social services manager from Walsall, UK, who was in India visiting family, began ringing local travel agents in attempt to beat the Friday deadline.

    BBC News - Coronavirus: 'We want to get home, but there aren't any tickets'
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56846968

    My sympathy meter is currently at very low levels.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    rcs1000 said:

    Floater said:

    Jeezus fecking christ Merkel

    https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1385339738132000769

    "I am still stunned at this. India is in the middle of a humanitarian catastrophe and all Merkel has to say is she is worried whether Indian pharmaceutical products “will still come to us”? "

    Yes. She is keen to make sure that Germans get the vaccines they paid for.

    How is her behaviour any different to the behaviour of our government?
    In all fairness, what public comment has our government made on receiving half of the 10 million doses from India, or on AZ exporting a million UK doses to Aus?

    While I'm generally not a Conservative party supporter (some members I am a fan of, while the rest can get in the sea), they've been one of few world governments to act in a moral and sensible way wrt to vaccinations.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,201
    edited April 2021
    theProle said:

    I know the BBC isn't good with numbers, but is this their worst effort at explaining something yet? The don't seem to understand how vaccine based herd immunity works at-all, and seem to be implying that if the vaccines are 90% effective, 10% of the population will get covid anyway 🤔. They therefore imply that contact tracing, face masks, endless testing will be required for ever. I presume none of them stop to wonder why we aren't in a permanent measles epidemic without such measures.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-40ac92b1-1750-4e86-9936-2cda6b0acb3f

    Frankly every single person involved in publishing this misleading rubbish should be dismissed immediately without compensation on the grounds of gross stupidity.

    You need to have

    Population uptake > 1/Vaccine Efficacy - 1/ (R0 * Vaccine efficacy)

    That pushes Rt < 1.

    At that point you still keep Non pharma interventions till you get cases as low as you want whilst not destroying your economy to push down case numbers (Case numbers should drop quickly) - crucially after they're released Rt never goes above 1.

    Some difficulties though

    i) Different variants likely have higher R0 than baseline Covid.
    ii) Different vaccines have different efficacies against different variants.
    iii) Noone actually really knows the true Veff for vaccines or true R0 for Covid.
    iv) There's no paediatric approval yet so population uptake is going to top out (Israel has hit this issue)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfTxgm088a4&ab_channel=TomRocksMaths
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,206
    edited April 2021
    Pulpstar said:

    theProle said:

    I know the BBC isn't good with numbers, but is this their worst effort at explaining something yet? The don't seem to understand how vaccine based herd immunity works at-all, and seem to be implying that if the vaccines are 90% effective, 10% of the population will get covid anyway 🤔. They therefore imply that contact tracing, face masks, endless testing will be required for ever. I presume none of them stop to wonder why we aren't in a permanent measles epidemic without such measures.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-40ac92b1-1750-4e86-9936-2cda6b0acb3f

    Frankly every single person involved in publishing this misleading rubbish should be dismissed immediately without compensation on the grounds of gross stupidity.

    You need to have

    Population uptake > 1/Vaccine Efficacy - 1/ (R0 * Vaccine efficacy)

    That pushes Rt < 1.

    At that point you still keep Non pharma interventions till you get cases as low as you want whilst not destroying your economy to push down case numbers (Case numbers should drop quickly) - crucially after they're released Rt never goes above 1.

    Some difficulties though

    i) Different variants likely have higher R0 than baseline Covid.
    ii) Different vaccines have different efficacies against different variants.
    iii) Noone actually really knows the true Veff for vaccines or true R0 for Covid.
    iv) There's no paediatric approval yet so population uptake is going to top out (Israel has hit this issue)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfTxgm088a4&ab_channel=TomRocksMaths
    I understand all that perfectly well. The BBC it seems doesn't, at least based on the features I linked. It makes no attempt to explain any of this, but instead implies that even if we vaxed 100% of the population with a 90% effective vaccine against all variants, Covid would sweep through the remaining 10%. This is obviously abject nonsense. I know they like to keep explanations simple, but this is so misleading its outrageous.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,206
    theProle said:

    Pulpstar said:

    theProle said:

    I know the BBC isn't good with numbers, but is this their worst effort at explaining something yet? The don't seem to understand how vaccine based herd immunity works at-all, and seem to be implying that if the vaccines are 90% effective, 10% of the population will get covid anyway 🤔. They therefore imply that contact tracing, face masks, endless testing will be required for ever. I presume none of them stop to wonder why we aren't in a permanent measles epidemic without such measures.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-40ac92b1-1750-4e86-9936-2cda6b0acb3f

    Frankly every single person involved in publishing this misleading rubbish should be dismissed immediately without compensation on the grounds of gross stupidity.

    You need to have

    Population uptake > 1/Vaccine Efficacy - 1/ (R0 * Vaccine efficacy)

    That pushes Rt < 1.

    At that point you still keep Non pharma interventions till you get cases as low as you want whilst not destroying your economy to push down case numbers (Case numbers should drop quickly) - crucially after they're released Rt never goes above 1.

    Some difficulties though

    i) Different variants likely have higher R0 than baseline Covid.
    ii) Different vaccines have different efficacies against different variants.
    iii) Noone actually really knows the true Veff for vaccines or true R0 for Covid.
    iv) There's no paediatric approval yet so population uptake is going to top out (Israel has hit this issue)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OfTxgm088a4&ab_channel=TomRocksMaths
    I understand all that perfectly well. The BBC it seems doesn't, at least based on the features I linked. It makes no attempt to explain any of this, but instead implies that even if we vaxed 100% of the population with a 90% effective vaccine against all variants, Covid would sweep through the remaining 10%. This is obviously abject nonsense. I know they like to keep explanations simple, but this is so misleading its outrageous.
    The YouTube video is also too pessimistic. Even people for whom the vaccine is not completely effective are likely to have much less viral shedding than the unvaccinated.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,585
    edited April 2021
    "22,617 people are currently predicted to have symptomatic COVID in the UK"

    https://covid.joinzoe.com/data

    Many districts are estimated to have less than 10 people with the virus according to this page. For instance Tandridge in Surrey with 8 estimated cases. Tandridge has a population of about 90,000.

    And some areas that were previously badly affected have very low numbers: for example Leicester with just 52.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,464
    theProle said:

    I know the BBC isn't good with numbers, but is this their worst effort at explaining something yet? The don't seem to understand how vaccine based herd immunity works at-all, and seem to be implying that if the vaccines are 90% effective, 10% of the population will get covid anyway 🤔. They therefore imply that contact tracing, face masks, endless testing will be required for ever. I presume none of them stop to wonder why we aren't in a permanent measles epidemic without such measures.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-40ac92b1-1750-4e86-9936-2cda6b0acb3f

    Frankly every single person involved in publishing this misleading rubbish should be dismissed immediately without compensation on the grounds of gross stupidity.

    I cant see what is misleading?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,080
    India healthcare system is imploding...

    Sir Ganga Ram Hospital in Delhi says ventilators are "not working effectively" and the hospital will run out of oxygen in less than an hour. 60 lives are at risk - ANI

    BREAKING: 2 New Delhi hospitals treating COVID-19 patients issue SOS, say they're running out of oxygen

    ---

    And in the Far East, COVID on the rise.

    BREAKING: Japanese government declares state of emergency in Tokyo, Osaka, Hyogo, and Kyoto due to coronavirus

    NEW: Thailand reports 2,070 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase on record
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,000
    Dominic Cummings is accused of leaking Boris Johnson’s texts with Sir James Dyson

    Boris Johnson believes that Dominic Cummings is behind damaging leaks including the disclosure of the prime minister’s text messages.

    A No 10 source claimed that Johnson’s former senior adviser was “engaged in systematic leaking” and “bitter about what’s happened since he left”.

    The prime minister was “saddened about what Dom is doing”, the source said as they accused him of “undermining the government and the party”.


    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/dominic-cummings-is-accused-of-leaking-boris-johnsons-texts-with-sir-james-dyson-xnsq9spbp
This discussion has been closed.