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If it looks like an outlier, walks like an outlier, and talks like an outlier then it probably is an

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  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,945
    dixiedean said:

    justin124 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    "The only thing in Starmer’s favour is that we’re a little over three years away from the scheduled date of the next general election, that gives him time to turn things around."

    Boris won't wait until the last minutes though. He'll do a Maggie and call the election in the fourth year (2023) IMO.

    To take advantage of new boundaries he would have to wait until Autumn 2023.
    Am I the only one who doesn't understand WHY it takes so long? Let's look at the case of Wales.

    There are FOUR Boundary Commissioners for Wales (they are supplied with plenty of backroom help).

    They have to redraw 31 seats. (Because Ynys Mon is protected and so its boundaries are fixed by the Irish Sea).

    How on earth does this take THREE YEARS?

    A competent individual should be able to get the job done in an afternoon with a penalized optimisation code.

    All right, so there is a comments & consultation process ... but this is NOT three years work for four people.
    God alone knows. AIUI the preference is always to avoid splitting wards when creating constituencies, so even with a complete redraw of the whole map they've only got to stitch together X-number of wards, each containing a known number of electors, to create seats of roughly the correct size.

    Taking sensible account of terrain, the catchment areas of towns, and local government boundaries (you probably wouldn't want to create a seat that straddled more than two council areas) means that giving the effort proper consideration would take rather more than an afternoon, but you'd think they'd have no trouble in getting Wales's relatively modest allocation done in a fortnight. The consultation process could be used to iron out any kinks, and voila! Whole thing done in six months.
    A full time PhD takes three years, during which an individual is expected to master a complex discipline, carry out original research, write it up & get it published.

    Joining together wards to form 31 roughly equal constituencies is a doddle by comparison. It really is not a hard problem.

    But it apparently takes numerous fat-arsed civil servants the same length of time as a PhD -- probably with access to many more resources and costing vastly more money.
    I whiled away an afternoon re-distributing Wales to prove my point in an argument on here.
    Only to discover later that they'd ringfenced Ynys Mon!
    It really didn't take more than a few hours using EC maps. No software needed.
    Only a few areas are not very obvious at all.
    Jesus lockdown was dull!!!
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Leon said:

    More seriously, THIS could destroy the Tories overnight


    ‘New Covid variants appear to be escaping vaccines, with the latest figures showing a doubling in cases of the South African mutation in the UK in the last month.’

    ‘The outbreak in London is thought to have been triggered by an individual travelling from a country in Africa to the UK in February, with cases spreading to members of their household and then to a care home in Lambeth, which is understood to have suffered at least 23 infections.’

    Why was ANYONE allowed into the UK from Africa in February? If they did get in, why weren’t they isolated in a prison-like environment for 3 weeks until tested 9 times and proven safe? I don’t care if they were coming back to see a dying mother. Tough shit. I haven’t seen my mother since last summer. No one in the UK can go anywhere

    This boils my blood. If all our lockdowns prove pointless because Boris couldn’t seal the borders I will vote Anything But Tory for the rest of recorded time

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/16/fears-covid-variants-escaping-vaccines-cases-south-african-strain/

    Based on my very limited layman's understanding of these variants it doesn't seem that complete vaccine escape is likely; however, the Government's handling of the borders has been deeply, deeply negligent.

    The one obsession they've indulged more weirdly and consistently than buggering about trying to get sunshine holidays up and running regardless is keeping the borders open so the entire world can come and have cold, wet holidays here. And no, the token impositions on red list countries don't count, when all you have to do if you are determined to get in is travel to a non-red list country and then make a false declaration when you arrive at the airport.

    I recall that story someone posted some months ago about the advice for travellers posted on the Dutch Foreign Ministry's website, which consisted of a single sentence: "Do not travel to the Netherlands." Other than in exceptional circumstances - truckers if we really can't manage without their deliveries, foreign diplomats, people coming to settle to do essential work - our advice to foreign visitors should be "Do not travel to the United Kingdom" until further notice. We do not need a constant influx of randoms arriving from across the globe because they feel like it.

    And certainly in the event that there is another lockdown at the end of all this, the least that the Tories can do is rid us of Boris Johnson. It might not save them but it would be nice if someone was, just for once, made to pay the price for a monumental fuck up.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,849
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    As I said a few days ago, India has the potential to be the worst Covid story of all (it was likewise the worst in Spanish flu)

    If this variant evades the vaccines, and if it can reinfect, then we are fucked. These are big ifs. But it is possible. Our government is, apparently, incapable of closing our borders, so it will come here in big waves (it is here already, in small numbers, of course)

    Well done, Boris. Well done
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,375
    In at least one variant, there appears to be a trade off between increased infectivity and increased susceptibility to vaccine neutralisation.
    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1383122519184461827

    Not seen anything yet which suggests we can’t control this thing.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,313
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    As I said a few days ago, India has the potential to be the worst Covid story of all (it was likewise the worst in Spanish flu)

    If this variant evades the vaccines, and if it can reinfect, then we are fucked. These are big ifs. But it is possible. Our government is, apparently, incapable of closing our borders, so it will come here in big waves (it is here already, in small numbers, of course)

    Well done, Boris. Well done
    Has anyone published the criteria for 'red listing' a country yet? It seems to be a rather arcane process. If there were a set of criteria it would be easier to hold politicians to account for not doing it.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,849
    Nigelb said:

    In at least one variant, there appears to be a trade off between increased infectivity and increased susceptibility to vaccine neutralisation.
    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1383122519184461827

    Not seen anything yet which suggests we can’t control this thing.

    Several of the safferbug victims in south london were vaxxed. We just don’t know how recently they were jabbed, nor how serious their afflictions

    On this info, much turns
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,849

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    As I said a few days ago, India has the potential to be the worst Covid story of all (it was likewise the worst in Spanish flu)

    If this variant evades the vaccines, and if it can reinfect, then we are fucked. These are big ifs. But it is possible. Our government is, apparently, incapable of closing our borders, so it will come here in big waves (it is here already, in small numbers, of course)

    Well done, Boris. Well done
    Has anyone published the criteria for 'red listing' a country yet? It seems to be a rather arcane process. If there were a set of criteria it would be easier to hold politicians to account for not doing it.
    The red list should be: the entire world.

    Tough shit if you get stuck on the wrong side of the barrier. We’re an island and we’re making the most of that. NZ, OZ and Taiwan show that this WORKS
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    The Bill is set for a comeback !
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    As I said a few days ago, India has the potential to be the worst Covid story of all (it was likewise the worst in Spanish flu)

    If this variant evades the vaccines, and if it can reinfect, then we are fucked. These are big ifs. But it is possible. Our government is, apparently, incapable of closing our borders, so it will come here in big waves (it is here already, in small numbers, of course)

    Well done, Boris. Well done
    There was, apparently, a bloody great stampede from Pakistan when it was announced (in advance, naturally, to give people time to get back and dodge the hotel quarantine requirement) that the country was going on the red list. I dare say the same will happen if and when India is similarly proscribed.

    Though it isn't yet, of course, so travellers from India are free to come here whenever they feel like it.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,849
    India is probably WORSE than it appears

    Thread: massive under-counting of deaths

    ‘(2) Things in MP are just as dire.

    At the two crematoriums in Bhopal, 187 bodies were cremated following Covid protocols in four days while the official death toll remained at five.’

    https://twitter.com/silvimort/status/1382937808357117953?s=21
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,849
    ‘(4) Crematoriums around the country are facing problems working overtime cremating bodies. The furnaces are becoming too hot and the metal structures are beginning to melt and deform.‘

    https://twitter.com/silvimort/status/1382940145700130816?s=21
  • Options
    londonpubmanlondonpubman Posts: 3,174
    In simple terms, we need to keep the borders closed unless for ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL travel.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,313
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    As I said a few days ago, India has the potential to be the worst Covid story of all (it was likewise the worst in Spanish flu)

    If this variant evades the vaccines, and if it can reinfect, then we are fucked. These are big ifs. But it is possible. Our government is, apparently, incapable of closing our borders, so it will come here in big waves (it is here already, in small numbers, of course)

    Well done, Boris. Well done
    Has anyone published the criteria for 'red listing' a country yet? It seems to be a rather arcane process. If there were a set of criteria it would be easier to hold politicians to account for not doing it.
    The red list should be: the entire world.

    Tough shit if you get stuck on the wrong side of the barrier. We’re an island and we’re making the most of that. NZ, OZ and Taiwan show that this WORKS
    Yes. There's something a little follow-the-money-esque about the whole thing isn't there? The Government just don't seem to want aviation to take a hit. Likewise commuting and London. Perhaps it relates to large scale projects like HS2 and Runway 3 that are considered too big to fail.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Floater said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Floater said:

    Sons bar has been closed by police for selling alcohol outside - at tables socially distanced - they argue that he heeds a takeaway license.

    As far as I can see he does not need one and have advised him to have them tell him exactly what law he is breaching

    No doubt a pain for him, but the fact the police are trying is good.
    Good in what sense?
    Good in the sense that they re the police and that there are infringements of the current regulations.
    You do not need a takeaway license as I understand it - so what law has he breached?

    The police said it was for not having a takeaway license - this is why I have asked him to get them to tell him exactly which law he has broken
    Check your son's license. Some premises are licensed for on-trade only, others for on and off trade.

    By "takeaway license" I'd presume they mean a license for off trade. In normal circumstances if a premise isn't licensed for off trade and people are taking alcohol away then that's a problem they'd be expected to clamp down on.

    But quite frankly now all on licenses really ought to be considered off ones in my opinion. No idea if they've changed the law on that though.
    There was also a technicality about pubs being allowed to sell takeaway drinks provided they were pre ordered
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,828

    In simple terms, we need to keep the borders closed unless for ABSOLUTELY ESSENTIAL travel.

    Well, perhaps, but it's clear middle-class vaccinated Britain is eagerly looking forward to its summer holidays in the Med and further afield.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,581
    Pulpstar said:

    The Bill is set for a comeback !

    Which Bill? The Fixed Term Parliament Act?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,849

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    As I said a few days ago, India has the potential to be the worst Covid story of all (it was likewise the worst in Spanish flu)

    If this variant evades the vaccines, and if it can reinfect, then we are fucked. These are big ifs. But it is possible. Our government is, apparently, incapable of closing our borders, so it will come here in big waves (it is here already, in small numbers, of course)

    Well done, Boris. Well done
    Has anyone published the criteria for 'red listing' a country yet? It seems to be a rather arcane process. If there were a set of criteria it would be easier to hold politicians to account for not doing it.
    The red list should be: the entire world.

    Tough shit if you get stuck on the wrong side of the barrier. We’re an island and we’re making the most of that. NZ, OZ and Taiwan show that this WORKS
    Yes. There's something a little follow-the-money-esque about the whole thing isn't there? The Government just don't seem to want aviation to take a hit. Likewise commuting and London. Perhaps it relates to large scale projects like HS2 and Runway 3 that are considered too big to fail.
    But it’s utterly short sighted. If we get hit by another wave of vaccine-escaping Covid, travel will be shattered for many years, as there will be zero confidence. The economy will crater. London likewise

    Far better to take the nasty pain of quarantining the whole country now, compared to the apocalyptic pain of more waves, more lockdowns, more deaths

    Also this from India. I have no idea if this is unusual. Varanasi often looks similar: multiple open crematoria. But Indians seem shocked:

    https://twitter.com/uroojkhantoi/status/1383122360920727552?s=21
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,907
    Charles said:

    Floater said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Floater said:

    Sons bar has been closed by police for selling alcohol outside - at tables socially distanced - they argue that he heeds a takeaway license.

    As far as I can see he does not need one and have advised him to have them tell him exactly what law he is breaching

    No doubt a pain for him, but the fact the police are trying is good.
    Good in what sense?
    Good in the sense that they re the police and that there are infringements of the current regulations.
    You do not need a takeaway license as I understand it - so what law has he breached?

    The police said it was for not having a takeaway license - this is why I have asked him to get them to tell him exactly which law he has broken
    Check your son's license. Some premises are licensed for on-trade only, others for on and off trade.

    By "takeaway license" I'd presume they mean a license for off trade. In normal circumstances if a premise isn't licensed for off trade and people are taking alcohol away then that's a problem they'd be expected to clamp down on.

    But quite frankly now all on licenses really ought to be considered off ones in my opinion. No idea if they've changed the law on that though.
    There was also a technicality about pubs being allowed to sell takeaway drinks provided they were pre ordered
    One of the pubs near me has been doing takeaway pints throughout, no need to pre-order, just turn up.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,849

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    As I said a few days ago, India has the potential to be the worst Covid story of all (it was likewise the worst in Spanish flu)

    If this variant evades the vaccines, and if it can reinfect, then we are fucked. These are big ifs. But it is possible. Our government is, apparently, incapable of closing our borders, so it will come here in big waves (it is here already, in small numbers, of course)

    Well done, Boris. Well done
    There was, apparently, a bloody great stampede from Pakistan when it was announced (in advance, naturally, to give people time to get back and dodge the hotel quarantine requirement) that the country was going on the red list. I dare say the same will happen if and when India is similarly proscribed.

    Though it isn't yet, of course, so travellers from India are free to come here whenever they feel like it.
    They’re not free to travel. You need a good reason like that tourist from Peru who ‘wanted to see Big Ben’
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,466
    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    As I said a few days ago, India has the potential to be the worst Covid story of all (it was likewise the worst in Spanish flu)

    If this variant evades the vaccines, and if it can reinfect, then we are fucked. These are big ifs. But it is possible. Our government is, apparently, incapable of closing our borders, so it will come here in big waves (it is here already, in small numbers, of course)

    Well done, Boris. Well done
    Has anyone published the criteria for 'red listing' a country yet? It seems to be a rather arcane process. If there were a set of criteria it would be easier to hold politicians to account for not doing it.
    The red list should be: the entire world.

    Tough shit if you get stuck on the wrong side of the barrier. We’re an island and we’re making the most of that. NZ, OZ and Taiwan show that this WORKS
    There were still quite a lot of tourists walking around London yesterday. I was surprised because I thought it was very difficult to be a foreign tourist in the UK at the moment.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    In at least one variant, there appears to be a trade off between increased infectivity and increased susceptibility to vaccine neutralisation.
    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1383122519184461827

    Not seen anything yet which suggests we can’t control this thing.

    Several of the safferbug victims in south london were vaxxed. We just don’t know how recently they were jabbed, nor how serious their afflictions

    On this info, much turns
    6 of the residents were more than 2 weeks post vax (not clear if this means first or second dose) and 1 staff too. The remainder appear to have been unvaccinated staff. Only 50% uptake apparently.

    https://diazhub.com/health/covid-london-just-half-of-carers-vaccinated-in-lambeth-care-home-with-south-africa-variant-outbreak/
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    Yes. There's something a little follow-the-money-esque about the whole thing isn't there? The Government just don't seem to want aviation to take a hit. Likewise commuting and London. Perhaps it relates to large scale projects like HS2 and Runway 3 that are considered too big to fail.

    I can not understand why so many people are still coming and going from this country over a year on. The risk of importing some new problem strain seems far too great to allow anything more than truly essential travel, and we should be watching like hawks everyone who enters the UK. The only thing that makes any sense to me for an explanation is that the Tory Party must be in hock to some airport or airline donors, which is why the Tories are still indicating to people that they will be able to get on a plane for some sun this summer.
  • Options
    valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 605

    valleyboy said:

    Omnium said:

    algarkirk said:

    Completely agree this is an outlier; but it's an outlier consistent with the trend that Labour are stuck and Tories have a tiny bit of upside potential looking at the trend.

    However in general, just because events are events and generally don't on average play to the governing party's advantage, it seems to me that the longer this goes on the more tempting it must be for Boris to look for an opening for an election ASAP.

    Because, 2017 debacle notwithstanding, with this set of Tories and this set of Labour politicians anyone reflecting on who is going to win extra votes in a short sharp campaign if it were now would say: Not Labour. The relevant charisma and wow factor is missing. Whatever their platform is, they have not even begun telling us.

    Their only real slogan would be 'Time for a Change'. The Tories would do well to find an opening before that slogan could be effective.

    Don't discount even 2022. 2023 is the latest from the perspective of now.

    The best case scenario for Labour is that Boris calls a snap poll and Labour immediately switches to a telegenic unknown like Allin-Khan, and squeezes largest party, Jacinda-style.
    Allin-Khan is by a country mile the most interesting possible future leader. This'd be like Maggie with the Tories though. A complete change.
    She's lovely. I'd marry her tomorrow. Think most of the heterosexual male population would too.
    She is lovely. But don't forget she unforgivably plageurised Johnson with the Love Actually, Andrew Lincoln/ Keira Knightly scene, a week before Johnson did it.
    I'd forgive her anything. I'm definitely in love.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531
    Andy_JS said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    As I said a few days ago, India has the potential to be the worst Covid story of all (it was likewise the worst in Spanish flu)

    If this variant evades the vaccines, and if it can reinfect, then we are fucked. These are big ifs. But it is possible. Our government is, apparently, incapable of closing our borders, so it will come here in big waves (it is here already, in small numbers, of course)

    Well done, Boris. Well done
    Has anyone published the criteria for 'red listing' a country yet? It seems to be a rather arcane process. If there were a set of criteria it would be easier to hold politicians to account for not doing it.
    The red list should be: the entire world.

    Tough shit if you get stuck on the wrong side of the barrier. We’re an island and we’re making the most of that. NZ, OZ and Taiwan show that this WORKS
    There were still quite a lot of tourists walking around London yesterday. I was surprised because I thought it was very difficult to be a foreign tourist in the UK at the moment.
    Perfect place to come if you need a break from plague lockdown in Paris, Berlin or Mumbai with our low rate of covid, attractions and pubs reopening etc.

    It is crazy that we are allowing this.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,313
    Leon said:

    Very sad about helen Mcrory

    Blistering performances in the first two series of Peaky Blinders

    But has anyone died after a ‘cowardly, half hearted battle with cancer’?

    RIP to her, that's sad.

    Before I say the following, I do speak as someone who has been affected by cancer indirectly as so many have - Mum suffered with a brain tumour, now fine, grandmother died of cancer etc., so I don't say this glibly.

    'Battling cancer' is just about the WORST thing you could tell someone to do. The absolute worst. 'Reclaiming your health' is what we should be telling people with cancer to do. 'Bravely reclaimed her health' is something we don't see in obituaries, because people who reclaim their health, win. People who battle cancer, lose.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,907
    valleyboy said:

    valleyboy said:

    Omnium said:

    algarkirk said:

    Completely agree this is an outlier; but it's an outlier consistent with the trend that Labour are stuck and Tories have a tiny bit of upside potential looking at the trend.

    However in general, just because events are events and generally don't on average play to the governing party's advantage, it seems to me that the longer this goes on the more tempting it must be for Boris to look for an opening for an election ASAP.

    Because, 2017 debacle notwithstanding, with this set of Tories and this set of Labour politicians anyone reflecting on who is going to win extra votes in a short sharp campaign if it were now would say: Not Labour. The relevant charisma and wow factor is missing. Whatever their platform is, they have not even begun telling us.

    Their only real slogan would be 'Time for a Change'. The Tories would do well to find an opening before that slogan could be effective.

    Don't discount even 2022. 2023 is the latest from the perspective of now.

    The best case scenario for Labour is that Boris calls a snap poll and Labour immediately switches to a telegenic unknown like Allin-Khan, and squeezes largest party, Jacinda-style.
    Allin-Khan is by a country mile the most interesting possible future leader. This'd be like Maggie with the Tories though. A complete change.
    She's lovely. I'd marry her tomorrow. Think most of the heterosexual male population would too.
    She is lovely. But don't forget she unforgivably plageurised Johnson with the Love Actually, Andrew Lincoln/ Keira Knightly scene, a week before Johnson did it.
    I'd forgive her anything. I'm definitely in love.
    Hard to tell on the internet whether you missed Mexican’s irony or whether you have just doubled-down on the irony.
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,828
    Looking at the weekly updated numbers, in my part of the world (Newham):

    Total population aged 50+ (according to NIMS): 88,031 - total having received first vaccination 61,119 which is 69.4%.

    Total population aged 70+ (according to NIMS): 17,842 - total having received first vaccination 14,177 which is 79.5%

    That leaves an estimated 3,700 people over 70 in Newham unprotected and nearly 27,000 over 50s in the same situation. Impossible to know how many of those not having had the first vaccination have refused or have some underlying health issue which prevents them being vaccinated or have not received an invitation to get a vaccine.

    Sobering when you hear news of new variants that so many remain completely defenceless.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,849
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    In at least one variant, there appears to be a trade off between increased infectivity and increased susceptibility to vaccine neutralisation.
    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1383122519184461827

    Not seen anything yet which suggests we can’t control this thing.

    Several of the safferbug victims in south london were vaxxed. We just don’t know how recently they were jabbed, nor how serious their afflictions

    On this info, much turns
    6 of the residents were more than 2 weeks post vax (not clear if this means first or second dose) and 1 staff too. The remainder appear to have been unvaccinated staff. Only 50% uptake apparently.

    https://diazhub.com/health/covid-london-just-half-of-carers-vaccinated-in-lambeth-care-home-with-south-africa-variant-outbreak/
    Not good. Now we need to know how sick they got, or how sick they still are

    Also: make the jab compulsory for anyone in this kind of job. Enough of being nice and liberal. Vax them
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,903
    edited April 2021
    I'm not sure we can reach true herd immunity for some of the more virulent variants without Covid ploughing through the population both vaxxed and unvaxxed (Highly likely more seriously in the unvaxxed)
    Life is going to be rough for antivaxxers in the winter.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,849
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm not sure we can reach herd immunity for some of the more virulent variants without Covid ploughing through the population.
    Life is going to be rough for antivaxxers in the winter.

    Let Darwin sort them out
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,639
    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Another confession

    Last night I drove COMPLETELY PISSED

    HAHAHAHAHAHA

    ok it was after midnight. The roads were deserted. And I only drive 30 yards to repark my car. BUT STILL

    I AM THE LORD OF MISRULE

    In all seriousness I wouldn’t have done that - drive 30 yards drunk at 1am - a year ago. A spirit of anarchy is abroad. The Rebel Yell echoes through the pine-stands

    About 5 years ago I reparked our car after a wedding. I swear my wife is a worse driver tired than I am after and long night of drinking (caveat - alcohol may have altered my mental faculties... ). It was only in a hotel car park but still felt daring...

    One wedding I went to, many years ago, I snorted coke off the bonnet of the happy couple’s hired Rolls Royce - in broad daylight, at 3pm, along with one of the bridesmaids. It was parked outside the very posh hotel, booked for the reception.

    Then I took the bridesmaid back to my family house and fucked her on the washing machine (spin cycle)

    I was a younger man then. These days I get excited if I drive tipsy for 30 meters on an empty road. SIGH
    You tumbled her on a washing machine?

    Sounds like the sort of crazy thing old @SeanT would do.
    Dunno about him, but I once co-hosted a very wild house party in Islington with quite famous people like **** ******* and ******* ******* all doing endless drugs in rather a surreal way. The surreality culminated when one of my housemates went into the bathroom to find a Bananarama being fucked on the tumbledryer
    Indeed. Very surreal to have a tumbledryer in the bathroom
    Only posh elites have separate rooms for separate activities, the rest of us have to double up :)
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,922
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    As I said a few days ago, India has the potential to be the worst Covid story of all (it was likewise the worst in Spanish flu)

    If this variant evades the vaccines, and if it can reinfect, then we are fucked. These are big ifs. But it is possible. Our government is, apparently, incapable of closing our borders, so it will come here in big waves (it is here already, in small numbers, of course)

    Well done, Boris. Well done
    Pfizer published efficacy numbers for the South African variant about 10 days ago - it was above 90%. In Israel, the SA variant is now the dominant local strain, but the vaccine is more than holding its own against it, with cases remaining at negligible levels.

    More worrying is that the AZ vaccine doesn't appear to perform as well as Pfizer. It may very well be that we'll be going round giving people a top-up of Moderna or Pfizer sooner rather than later.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,187
    glw said:

    Yes. There's something a little follow-the-money-esque about the whole thing isn't there? The Government just don't seem to want aviation to take a hit. Likewise commuting and London. Perhaps it relates to large scale projects like HS2 and Runway 3 that are considered too big to fail.

    I can not understand why so many people are still coming and going from this country over a year on. The risk of importing some new problem strain seems far too great to allow anything more than truly essential travel, and we should be watching like hawks everyone who enters the UK. The only thing that makes any sense to me for an explanation is that the Tory Party must be in hock to some airport or airline donors, which is why the Tories are still indicating to people that they will be able to get on a plane for some sun this summer.
    Starmer and Labour would be better off looking at this rather than document shredding companies.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    In at least one variant, there appears to be a trade off between increased infectivity and increased susceptibility to vaccine neutralisation.
    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1383122519184461827

    Not seen anything yet which suggests we can’t control this thing.

    Several of the safferbug victims in south london were vaxxed. We just don’t know how recently they were jabbed, nor how serious their afflictions

    On this info, much turns
    6 of the residents were more than 2 weeks post vax (not clear if this means first or second dose) and 1 staff too. The remainder appear to have been unvaccinated staff. Only 50% uptake apparently.

    https://diazhub.com/health/covid-london-just-half-of-carers-vaccinated-in-lambeth-care-home-with-south-africa-variant-outbreak/
    Not good. Now we need to know how sick they got, or how sick they still are

    Also: make the jab compulsory for anyone in this kind of job. Enough of being nice and liberal. Vax them
    I have no problem with that, indeed one London Trust (Chelsea and Westminster) is planning to do so.

    I am required to be immunised against Hep B as a condition of employment, so there is precedent.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,313
    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    In at least one variant, there appears to be a trade off between increased infectivity and increased susceptibility to vaccine neutralisation.
    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1383122519184461827

    Not seen anything yet which suggests we can’t control this thing.

    Several of the safferbug victims in south london were vaxxed. We just don’t know how recently they were jabbed, nor how serious their afflictions

    On this info, much turns
    6 of the residents were more than 2 weeks post vax (not clear if this means first or second dose) and 1 staff too. The remainder appear to have been unvaccinated staff. Only 50% uptake apparently.

    https://diazhub.com/health/covid-london-just-half-of-carers-vaccinated-in-lambeth-care-home-with-south-africa-variant-outbreak/
    Not good. Now we need to know how sick they got, or how sick they still are

    Also: make the jab compulsory for anyone in this kind of job. Enough of being nice and liberal. Vax them
    It seems breathtakingly stupid to prevent (vaccinated) adults seeing their aged parents, but expose the same to un-vaccinated carers.

    These people need to be vaccinated now - anyone in care or healthcare.
  • Options
    FairlieredFairliered Posts: 3,966
    If every airline and every airport goes bust in order to keep us safe, and to allow socialising with family and friends, hugs, staycations and pints in pubs with friends, then, sorry airline industry, it’s been nice knowing you.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    More seriously, THIS could destroy the Tories overnight


    ‘New Covid variants appear to be escaping vaccines, with the latest figures showing a doubling in cases of the South African mutation in the UK in the last month.’

    ‘The outbreak in London is thought to have been triggered by an individual travelling from a country in Africa to the UK in February, with cases spreading to members of their household and then to a care home in Lambeth, which is understood to have suffered at least 23 infections.’

    Why was ANYONE allowed into the UK from Africa in February? If they did get in, why weren’t they isolated in a prison-like environment for 3 weeks until tested 9 times and proven safe? I don’t care if they were coming back to see a dying mother. Tough shit. I haven’t seen my mother since last summer. No one in the UK can go anywhere

    This boils my blood. If all our lockdowns prove pointless because Boris couldn’t seal the borders I will vote Anything But Tory for the rest of recorded time

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/16/fears-covid-variants-escaping-vaccines-cases-south-african-strain/

    23 cases in a care home? Would have all been well post vaccination. Ominous.

    Were any of them admitted
    I was told earlier this that the government will not place new residents in care homes unless at least 70% of staff are vaccinated. It’s causing some concern in the industry - hence Pete Calveley’s comments
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,849
    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Another confession

    Last night I drove COMPLETELY PISSED

    HAHAHAHAHAHA

    ok it was after midnight. The roads were deserted. And I only drive 30 yards to repark my car. BUT STILL

    I AM THE LORD OF MISRULE

    In all seriousness I wouldn’t have done that - drive 30 yards drunk at 1am - a year ago. A spirit of anarchy is abroad. The Rebel Yell echoes through the pine-stands

    About 5 years ago I reparked our car after a wedding. I swear my wife is a worse driver tired than I am after and long night of drinking (caveat - alcohol may have altered my mental faculties... ). It was only in a hotel car park but still felt daring...

    One wedding I went to, many years ago, I snorted coke off the bonnet of the happy couple’s hired Rolls Royce - in broad daylight, at 3pm, along with one of the bridesmaids. It was parked outside the very posh hotel, booked for the reception.

    Then I took the bridesmaid back to my family house and fucked her on the washing machine (spin cycle)

    I was a younger man then. These days I get excited if I drive tipsy for 30 meters on an empty road. SIGH
    You tumbled her on a washing machine?

    Sounds like the sort of crazy thing old @SeanT would do.
    Dunno about him, but I once co-hosted a very wild house party in Islington with quite famous people like **** ******* and ******* ******* all doing endless drugs in rather a surreal way. The surreality culminated when one of my housemates went into the bathroom to find a Bananarama being fucked on the tumbledryer
    Indeed. Very surreal to have a tumbledryer in the bathroom
    Only posh elites have separate rooms for separate activities, the rest of us have to double up :)
    Indeed, I’m such a pleb, compared to Charles, I don’t even have a special room for fucking a Bananarama on the tumble dryer, and it had to also be used as the room in which a Bananarama stimulates her clitoris during sex with a borrowed electric toothbrush

    I imagine Charles’ mansion has entire wings dedicated to these different pursuits
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,122
    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    More seriously, THIS could destroy the Tories overnight


    ‘New Covid variants appear to be escaping vaccines, with the latest figures showing a doubling in cases of the South African mutation in the UK in the last month.’

    ‘The outbreak in London is thought to have been triggered by an individual travelling from a country in Africa to the UK in February, with cases spreading to members of their household and then to a care home in Lambeth, which is understood to have suffered at least 23 infections.’

    Why was ANYONE allowed into the UK from Africa in February? If they did get in, why weren’t they isolated in a prison-like environment for 3 weeks until tested 9 times and proven safe? I don’t care if they were coming back to see a dying mother. Tough shit. I haven’t seen my mother since last summer. No one in the UK can go anywhere

    This boils my blood. If all our lockdowns prove pointless because Boris couldn’t seal the borders I will vote Anything But Tory for the rest of recorded time

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/16/fears-covid-variants-escaping-vaccines-cases-south-african-strain/

    23 cases in a care home? Would have all been well post vaccination. Ominous.

    Were any of them admitted
    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    In at least one variant, there appears to be a trade off between increased infectivity and increased susceptibility to vaccine neutralisation.
    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1383122519184461827

    Not seen anything yet which suggests we can’t control this thing.

    Several of the safferbug victims in south london were vaxxed. We just don’t know how recently they were jabbed, nor how serious their afflictions

    On this info, much turns
    I’ve said before that if the vaccine only stops hospitalisation and death, but people still get ill, it doesn’t matter. And older folks in care homes will likely not have strong immune systems. I note that most of the cases in the care homes were unvaccinated staff, the idiots.
    It’s late at night - don’t get sucked into the latest media scare. Immunologists are less worried than epidemiologists. That should give comfort.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,161

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    Nigelb said:

    In at least one variant, there appears to be a trade off between increased infectivity and increased susceptibility to vaccine neutralisation.
    https://twitter.com/EricTopol/status/1383122519184461827

    Not seen anything yet which suggests we can’t control this thing.

    Several of the safferbug victims in south london were vaxxed. We just don’t know how recently they were jabbed, nor how serious their afflictions

    On this info, much turns
    6 of the residents were more than 2 weeks post vax (not clear if this means first or second dose) and 1 staff too. The remainder appear to have been unvaccinated staff. Only 50% uptake apparently.

    https://diazhub.com/health/covid-london-just-half-of-carers-vaccinated-in-lambeth-care-home-with-south-africa-variant-outbreak/
    Not good. Now we need to know how sick they got, or how sick they still are

    Also: make the jab compulsory for anyone in this kind of job. Enough of being nice and liberal. Vax them
    It seems breathtakingly stupid to prevent (vaccinated) adults seeing their aged parents, but expose the same to un-vaccinated carers.

    These people need to be vaccinated now - anyone in care or healthcare.
    If Johnson and Shapps have blown the vaccine miracle by continuing to allow international travel then this government should be swept from office pronto.

    One final mistake too many.

    Time and time again this issue has been raised.
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm not sure we can reach true herd immunity for some of the more virulent variants without Covid ploughing through the population both vaxxed and unvaxxed (Highly likely more seriously in the unvaxxed)
    Life is going to be rough for antivaxxers in the winter.

    It does very much depend on the circumstances. If we're not doing too badly then nobody will mind; if a lot of the restrictions come back, and it can be pinned on the unvaccinated acting to drive transmission, then there will be ructions.

    In particular, we were discussing earlier today the possibility of mass refusal by the parents of schoolkids (MMR redux.) MMR refusal is controversial enough, and there have already been debates about making that vaccine compulsory since the UK lost its measles-free status. If unvaccinated kids start to screw up the ability of the whole of society to function then the pressure for compulsion (i.e. if parents still refuse, the kids are expelled from school and effectively placed under house arrest) will quickly become immense.

    Almost no-one will have sympathy for parents who refuse to have their kids jabbed because of infinitesimally small risks to the health of their progeny, even if rooted in genuine concerns - let alone some shit they read on Facebook. Au contraire: if that results in lockdown then most people would probably want to strangle them with their own bare hands.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,945
    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Another confession

    Last night I drove COMPLETELY PISSED

    HAHAHAHAHAHA

    ok it was after midnight. The roads were deserted. And I only drive 30 yards to repark my car. BUT STILL

    I AM THE LORD OF MISRULE

    In all seriousness I wouldn’t have done that - drive 30 yards drunk at 1am - a year ago. A spirit of anarchy is abroad. The Rebel Yell echoes through the pine-stands

    About 5 years ago I reparked our car after a wedding. I swear my wife is a worse driver tired than I am after and long night of drinking (caveat - alcohol may have altered my mental faculties... ). It was only in a hotel car park but still felt daring...

    One wedding I went to, many years ago, I snorted coke off the bonnet of the happy couple’s hired Rolls Royce - in broad daylight, at 3pm, along with one of the bridesmaids. It was parked outside the very posh hotel, booked for the reception.

    Then I took the bridesmaid back to my family house and fucked her on the washing machine (spin cycle)

    I was a younger man then. These days I get excited if I drive tipsy for 30 meters on an empty road. SIGH
    You tumbled her on a washing machine?

    Sounds like the sort of crazy thing old @SeanT would do.
    Dunno about him, but I once co-hosted a very wild house party in Islington with quite famous people like **** ******* and ******* ******* all doing endless drugs in rather a surreal way. The surreality culminated when one of my housemates went into the bathroom to find a Bananarama being fucked on the tumbledryer
    Indeed. Very surreal to have a tumbledryer in the bathroom
    Only posh elites have separate rooms for separate activities, the rest of us have to double up :)
    Indeed, I’m such a pleb, compared to Charles, I don’t even have a special room for fucking a Bananarama on the tumble dryer, and it had to also be used as the room in which a Bananarama stimulates her clitoris during sex with a borrowed electric toothbrush

    I imagine Charles’ mansion has entire wings dedicated to these different pursuits
    Does he also have staff to furnish? A sort of groom-of-the-implements?
    I envision a trusted servant, been with the family for generations, with white gloves, removing a cloche to reveal a selection on solid silver tray. Some of them even knapped from the finest flint.
  • Options
    valleyboyvalleyboy Posts: 605

    valleyboy said:

    valleyboy said:

    Omnium said:

    algarkirk said:

    Completely agree this is an outlier; but it's an outlier consistent with the trend that Labour are stuck and Tories have a tiny bit of upside potential looking at the trend.

    However in general, just because events are events and generally don't on average play to the governing party's advantage, it seems to me that the longer this goes on the more tempting it must be for Boris to look for an opening for an election ASAP.

    Because, 2017 debacle notwithstanding, with this set of Tories and this set of Labour politicians anyone reflecting on who is going to win extra votes in a short sharp campaign if it were now would say: Not Labour. The relevant charisma and wow factor is missing. Whatever their platform is, they have not even begun telling us.

    Their only real slogan would be 'Time for a Change'. The Tories would do well to find an opening before that slogan could be effective.

    Don't discount even 2022. 2023 is the latest from the perspective of now.

    The best case scenario for Labour is that Boris calls a snap poll and Labour immediately switches to a telegenic unknown like Allin-Khan, and squeezes largest party, Jacinda-style.
    Allin-Khan is by a country mile the most interesting possible future leader. This'd be like Maggie with the Tories though. A complete change.
    She's lovely. I'd marry her tomorrow. Think most of the heterosexual male population would too.
    She is lovely. But don't forget she unforgivably plageurised Johnson with the Love Actually, Andrew Lincoln/ Keira Knightly scene, a week before Johnson did it.
    I'd forgive her anything. I'm definitely in love.
    Hard to tell on the internet whether you missed Mexican’s irony or whether you have just doubled-down on the irony.
    Doubled down
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,059
    valleyboy said:

    valleyboy said:

    Omnium said:

    algarkirk said:

    Completely agree this is an outlier; but it's an outlier consistent with the trend that Labour are stuck and Tories have a tiny bit of upside potential looking at the trend.

    However in general, just because events are events and generally don't on average play to the governing party's advantage, it seems to me that the longer this goes on the more tempting it must be for Boris to look for an opening for an election ASAP.

    Because, 2017 debacle notwithstanding, with this set of Tories and this set of Labour politicians anyone reflecting on who is going to win extra votes in a short sharp campaign if it were now would say: Not Labour. The relevant charisma and wow factor is missing. Whatever their platform is, they have not even begun telling us.

    Their only real slogan would be 'Time for a Change'. The Tories would do well to find an opening before that slogan could be effective.

    Don't discount even 2022. 2023 is the latest from the perspective of now.

    The best case scenario for Labour is that Boris calls a snap poll and Labour immediately switches to a telegenic unknown like Allin-Khan, and squeezes largest party, Jacinda-style.
    Allin-Khan is by a country mile the most interesting possible future leader. This'd be like Maggie with the Tories though. A complete change.
    She's lovely. I'd marry her tomorrow. Think most of the heterosexual male population would too.
    She is lovely. But don't forget she unforgivably plageurised Johnson with the Love Actually, Andrew Lincoln/ Keira Knightly scene, a week before Johnson did it.
    I'd forgive her anything. I'm definitely in love.
    Re-read what I wrote, and you will realise you won't have to forgive her for anything.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Another confession

    Last night I drove COMPLETELY PISSED

    HAHAHAHAHAHA

    ok it was after midnight. The roads were deserted. And I only drive 30 yards to repark my car. BUT STILL

    I AM THE LORD OF MISRULE

    In all seriousness I wouldn’t have done that - drive 30 yards drunk at 1am - a year ago. A spirit of anarchy is abroad. The Rebel Yell echoes through the pine-stands

    About 5 years ago I reparked our car after a wedding. I swear my wife is a worse driver tired than I am after and long night of drinking (caveat - alcohol may have altered my mental faculties... ). It was only in a hotel car park but still felt daring...

    One wedding I went to, many years ago, I snorted coke off the bonnet of the happy couple’s hired Rolls Royce - in broad daylight, at 3pm, along with one of the bridesmaids. It was parked outside the very posh hotel, booked for the reception.

    Then I took the bridesmaid back to my family house and fucked her on the washing machine (spin cycle)

    I was a younger man then. These days I get excited if I drive tipsy for 30 meters on an empty road. SIGH
    You tumbled her on a washing machine?

    Sounds like the sort of crazy thing old @SeanT would do.
    Dunno about him, but I once co-hosted a very wild house party in Islington with quite famous people like **** ******* and ******* ******* all doing endless drugs in rather a surreal way. The surreality culminated when one of my housemates went into the bathroom to find a Bananarama being fucked on the tumbledryer
    Indeed. Very surreal to have a tumbledryer in the bathroom
    Only posh elites have separate rooms for separate activities, the rest of us have to double up :)
    Doubling up sounds kinky
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,849
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    More seriously, THIS could destroy the Tories overnight


    ‘New Covid variants appear to be escaping vaccines, with the latest figures showing a doubling in cases of the South African mutation in the UK in the last month.’

    ‘The outbreak in London is thought to have been triggered by an individual travelling from a country in Africa to the UK in February, with cases spreading to members of their household and then to a care home in Lambeth, which is understood to have suffered at least 23 infections.’

    Why was ANYONE allowed into the UK from Africa in February? If they did get in, why weren’t they isolated in a prison-like environment for 3 weeks until tested 9 times and proven safe? I don’t care if they were coming back to see a dying mother. Tough shit. I haven’t seen my mother since last summer. No one in the UK can go anywhere

    This boils my blood. If all our lockdowns prove pointless because Boris couldn’t seal the borders I will vote Anything But Tory for the rest of recorded time

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/16/fears-covid-variants-escaping-vaccines-cases-south-african-strain/

    23 cases in a care home? Would have all been well post vaccination. Ominous.

    Were any of them admitted
    I was told earlier this that the government will not place new residents in care homes unless at least 70% of staff are vaccinated. It’s causing some concern in the industry - hence Pete Calveley’s comments
    Yes, that’s all well and good, Charles, but the more pressing question is: do you have a room dedicated to fucking-a-Bananarama-on-the-tumble-dryer, and, presuming you do, like most well-educated English gentlefolk, what do you do with this room on the rare occasions when it doesn’t actually contain a Bananarama being fucked on the tumbledryer?

    You can’t avoid these questions forever, it’s like the SNP and the currency issue.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,161
    "On Friday, Downing Street pushed back against suggestions that a decision on placing India on the travel "red list" had been delayed due to Mr Johnson's trip." (Telegraph).

    Would be laugh out loud funny it's so obviously utter horse shit if this wasn't so serious. :angry:
  • Options
    TimSTimS Posts: 9,501
    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    To put this into perspective though, 233,757 scaled for population is the equivalent of 11,405 cases in the UK, and 1,338 deaths is like 65 deaths. It's such a huge country. And the anecdotal reports of "most households having someone" with Covid this week suggest to me some places may already be getting close to saturation.

    Of course variants don't care about per capita figures, they just like lots and lots of infections so India like Brazil is an ideal variant breeding ground, but there's a long way to go before India gets even close to the levels of infection and death of most of Western Europe. And they're the world's biggest vaccine producer.

    The Latin American story is the most tragic. Just month upon month of relentless infection and death in Mexico, Peru, Brazil, Colombia, Argentina and so on.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,046

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    As I said a few days ago, India has the potential to be the worst Covid story of all (it was likewise the worst in Spanish flu)

    If this variant evades the vaccines, and if it can reinfect, then we are fucked. These are big ifs. But it is possible. Our government is, apparently, incapable of closing our borders, so it will come here in big waves (it is here already, in small numbers, of course)

    Well done, Boris. Well done
    There was, apparently, a bloody great stampede from Pakistan when it was announced (in advance, naturally, to give people time to get back and dodge the hotel quarantine requirement) that the country was going on the red list. I dare say the same will happen if and when India is similarly proscribed.

    Though it isn't yet, of course, so travellers from India are free to come here whenever they feel like it.
    I seriously suspect that the government wants all variants to get here so that they can then remove all international travels restrictions on the basis that they don't work.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,945
    Off topic. Am binge watching the West Wing from the beginning.
    Quality TV, but I can't see it except backwards through the filter of Trump.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,161
    dixiedean said:

    Off topic. Am binge watching the West Wing from the beginning.
    Quality TV, but I can't see it except backwards through the filter of Trump.

    Interesting. Bartlet is of course the antithesis of Trump.
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,466
    Why does Johnson need to travel to India? Never heard of Zoom...
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549

    If Johnson and Shapps have blown the vaccine miracle by continuing to allow international travel then this government should be swept from office pronto.

    One final mistake too many.

    Time and time again this issue has been raised.

    I can see civil unrest if the government says something like "the Bhutan strain has escaped our vaccines, we need to lockdown immediately for another three months".
  • Options
    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,122

    dixiedean said:

    Off topic. Am binge watching the West Wing from the beginning.
    Quality TV, but I can't see it except backwards through the filter of Trump.

    Interesting. Bartlet is of course the antithesis of Trump.
    Although of course only one is a fictional character...
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,375
    edited April 2021
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    dixiedean said:

    Leon said:

    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    ydoethur said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Another confession

    Last night I drove COMPLETELY PISSED

    HAHAHAHAHAHA

    ok it was after midnight. The roads were deserted. And I only drive 30 yards to repark my car. BUT STILL

    I AM THE LORD OF MISRULE

    In all seriousness I wouldn’t have done that - drive 30 yards drunk at 1am - a year ago. A spirit of anarchy is abroad. The Rebel Yell echoes through the pine-stands

    About 5 years ago I reparked our car after a wedding. I swear my wife is a worse driver tired than I am after and long night of drinking (caveat - alcohol may have altered my mental faculties... ). It was only in a hotel car park but still felt daring...

    One wedding I went to, many years ago, I snorted coke off the bonnet of the happy couple’s hired Rolls Royce - in broad daylight, at 3pm, along with one of the bridesmaids. It was parked outside the very posh hotel, booked for the reception.

    Then I took the bridesmaid back to my family house and fucked her on the washing machine (spin cycle)

    I was a younger man then. These days I get excited if I drive tipsy for 30 meters on an empty road. SIGH
    You tumbled her on a washing machine?

    Sounds like the sort of crazy thing old @SeanT would do.
    Dunno about him, but I once co-hosted a very wild house party in Islington with quite famous people like **** ******* and ******* ******* all doing endless drugs in rather a surreal way. The surreality culminated when one of my housemates went into the bathroom to find a Bananarama being fucked on the tumbledryer
    Indeed. Very surreal to have a tumbledryer in the bathroom
    Only posh elites have separate rooms for separate activities, the rest of us have to double up :)
    Indeed, I’m such a pleb, compared to Charles, I don’t even have a special room for fucking a Bananarama on the tumble dryer, and it had to also be used as the room in which a Bananarama stimulates her clitoris during sex with a borrowed electric toothbrush

    I imagine Charles’ mansion has entire wings dedicated to these different pursuits
    Does he also have staff to furnish? A sort of groom-of-the-implements?
    I envision a trusted servant, been with the family for generations, with white gloves, removing a cloche to reveal a selection on solid silver tray. Some of them even knapped from the finest flint.
    Did you mean a cloth instead of a cloche? The latter would be weird
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,907

    valleyboy said:

    valleyboy said:

    Omnium said:

    algarkirk said:

    Completely agree this is an outlier; but it's an outlier consistent with the trend that Labour are stuck and Tories have a tiny bit of upside potential looking at the trend.

    However in general, just because events are events and generally don't on average play to the governing party's advantage, it seems to me that the longer this goes on the more tempting it must be for Boris to look for an opening for an election ASAP.

    Because, 2017 debacle notwithstanding, with this set of Tories and this set of Labour politicians anyone reflecting on who is going to win extra votes in a short sharp campaign if it were now would say: Not Labour. The relevant charisma and wow factor is missing. Whatever their platform is, they have not even begun telling us.

    Their only real slogan would be 'Time for a Change'. The Tories would do well to find an opening before that slogan could be effective.

    Don't discount even 2022. 2023 is the latest from the perspective of now.

    The best case scenario for Labour is that Boris calls a snap poll and Labour immediately switches to a telegenic unknown like Allin-Khan, and squeezes largest party, Jacinda-style.
    Allin-Khan is by a country mile the most interesting possible future leader. This'd be like Maggie with the Tories though. A complete change.
    She's lovely. I'd marry her tomorrow. Think most of the heterosexual male population would too.
    She is lovely. But don't forget she unforgivably plageurised Johnson with the Love Actually, Andrew Lincoln/ Keira Knightly scene, a week before Johnson did it.
    I'd forgive her anything. I'm definitely in love.
    Re-read what I wrote, and you will realise you won't have to forgive her for anything.
    Double irony I have just ascertained.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,161

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    As I said a few days ago, India has the potential to be the worst Covid story of all (it was likewise the worst in Spanish flu)

    If this variant evades the vaccines, and if it can reinfect, then we are fucked. These are big ifs. But it is possible. Our government is, apparently, incapable of closing our borders, so it will come here in big waves (it is here already, in small numbers, of course)

    Well done, Boris. Well done
    There was, apparently, a bloody great stampede from Pakistan when it was announced (in advance, naturally, to give people time to get back and dodge the hotel quarantine requirement) that the country was going on the red list. I dare say the same will happen if and when India is similarly proscribed.

    Though it isn't yet, of course, so travellers from India are free to come here whenever they feel like it.
    I seriously suspect that the government wants all variants to get here so that they can then remove all international travels restrictions on the basis that they don't work.
    It just beggars belief.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    More seriously, THIS could destroy the Tories overnight


    ‘New Covid variants appear to be escaping vaccines, with the latest figures showing a doubling in cases of the South African mutation in the UK in the last month.’

    ‘The outbreak in London is thought to have been triggered by an individual travelling from a country in Africa to the UK in February, with cases spreading to members of their household and then to a care home in Lambeth, which is understood to have suffered at least 23 infections.’

    Why was ANYONE allowed into the UK from Africa in February? If they did get in, why weren’t they isolated in a prison-like environment for 3 weeks until tested 9 times and proven safe? I don’t care if they were coming back to see a dying mother. Tough shit. I haven’t seen my mother since last summer. No one in the UK can go anywhere

    This boils my blood. If all our lockdowns prove pointless because Boris couldn’t seal the borders I will vote Anything But Tory for the rest of recorded time

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/16/fears-covid-variants-escaping-vaccines-cases-south-african-strain/

    23 cases in a care home? Would have all been well post vaccination. Ominous.

    Were any of them admitted
    I was told earlier this that the government will not place new residents in care homes unless at least 70% of staff are vaccinated. It’s causing some concern in the industry - hence Pete Calveley’s comments
    Yes, that’s all well and good, Charles, but the more pressing question is: do you have a room dedicated to fucking-a-Bananarama-on-the-tumble-dryer, and, presuming you do, like most well-educated English gentlefolk, what do you do with this room on the rare occasions when it doesn’t actually contain a Bananarama being fucked on the tumbledryer?

    You can’t avoid these questions forever, it’s like the SNP and the currency issue.
    I spent a very fun evening with Marianne Faithful when I was young. She could have made one of your devices out of her voice
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    As I said a few days ago, India has the potential to be the worst Covid story of all (it was likewise the worst in Spanish flu)

    If this variant evades the vaccines, and if it can reinfect, then we are fucked. These are big ifs. But it is possible. Our government is, apparently, incapable of closing our borders, so it will come here in big waves (it is here already, in small numbers, of course)

    Well done, Boris. Well done
    Pfizer published efficacy numbers for the South African variant about 10 days ago - it was above 90%. In Israel, the SA variant is now the dominant local strain, but the vaccine is more than holding its own against it, with cases remaining at negligible levels.

    More worrying is that the AZ vaccine doesn't appear to perform as well as Pfizer. It may very well be that we'll be going round giving people a top-up of Moderna or Pfizer sooner rather than later.
    There was an interesting but small study out of Israel that appeared to show that there may be some breakthrough of the SA variant in Pfizer immunised.

    https://twitter.com/Reuters_Health/status/1381117346333519873?s=19
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,849
    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    To put this into perspective though, 233,757 scaled for population is the equivalent of 11,405 cases in the UK, and 1,338 deaths is like 65 deaths. It's such a huge country. And the anecdotal reports of "most households having someone" with Covid this week suggest to me some places may already be getting close to saturation.

    Of course variants don't care about per capita figures, they just like lots and lots of infections so India like Brazil is an ideal variant breeding ground, but there's a long way to go before India gets even close to the levels of infection and death of most of Western Europe. And they're the world's biggest vaccine producer.

    The Latin American story is the most tragic. Just month upon month of relentless infection and death in Mexico, Peru, Brazil, Colombia, Argentina and so on.
    Read the links I posted below. There’s lots of evidence India is vastly under-reporting Covid-19 deaths. It has a populist right wing leader like Brazil....

    One tweet I read (by a not obviously crazy man) said multiply it by 5 or even 10

    5 would be 6,000 deaths a day. The worst in the world yet, and still going up
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,945

    dixiedean said:

    Off topic. Am binge watching the West Wing from the beginning.
    Quality TV, but I can't see it except backwards through the filter of Trump.

    Interesting. Bartlet is of course the antithesis of Trump.
    He has, however, just cheated at sport. Bringing a ringer into a basketball game.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,922

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    As I said a few days ago, India has the potential to be the worst Covid story of all (it was likewise the worst in Spanish flu)

    If this variant evades the vaccines, and if it can reinfect, then we are fucked. These are big ifs. But it is possible. Our government is, apparently, incapable of closing our borders, so it will come here in big waves (it is here already, in small numbers, of course)

    Well done, Boris. Well done
    Has anyone published the criteria for 'red listing' a country yet? It seems to be a rather arcane process. If there were a set of criteria it would be easier to hold politicians to account for not doing it.
    The red list should be: the entire world.

    Tough shit if you get stuck on the wrong side of the barrier. We’re an island and we’re making the most of that. NZ, OZ and Taiwan show that this WORKS
    Yes. There's something a little follow-the-money-esque about the whole thing isn't there? The Government just don't seem to want aviation to take a hit. Likewise commuting and London. Perhaps it relates to large scale projects like HS2 and Runway 3 that are considered too big to fail.
    It's also a little more complex than that.

    We have truckers coming in, and the other islands don't. Completely sealing the borders is therefore much harder for us than for them. I mean, we could do it, but there would be an economic impact for us that the other islands simply don't get.

    But here's the other thing. Israel is a little bit ahead of us, and has opened the borders and removed restrictons and...

    They're doing fine. All the evidence - so far - is that vaccines are incredibly effective at preventing both serious disease and transmission of the virus.

  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,849
    Andy_JS said:

    Why does Johnson need to travel to India? Never heard of Zoom...

    The theory on Twitter is that he wants to seal a UK/India trade deal in person, to vindicate Brexit

    Personally I don’t believe it. I think it’s just basic incompetence and a fear of grasping the nettle of true border closure. Because it WOULD mean severe economic pain, and scarring for a century

    But the alternative is surely worse, now
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,046
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    As I said a few days ago, India has the potential to be the worst Covid story of all (it was likewise the worst in Spanish flu)

    If this variant evades the vaccines, and if it can reinfect, then we are fucked. These are big ifs. But it is possible. Our government is, apparently, incapable of closing our borders, so it will come here in big waves (it is here already, in small numbers, of course)

    Well done, Boris. Well done
    Has anyone published the criteria for 'red listing' a country yet? It seems to be a rather arcane process. If there were a set of criteria it would be easier to hold politicians to account for not doing it.
    The red list should be: the entire world.

    Tough shit if you get stuck on the wrong side of the barrier. We’re an island and we’re making the most of that. NZ, OZ and Taiwan show that this WORKS
    Yes. There's something a little follow-the-money-esque about the whole thing isn't there? The Government just don't seem to want aviation to take a hit. Likewise commuting and London. Perhaps it relates to large scale projects like HS2 and Runway 3 that are considered too big to fail.
    It's also a little more complex than that.

    We have truckers coming in, and the other islands don't. Completely sealing the borders is therefore much harder for us than for them. I mean, we could do it, but there would be an economic impact for us that the other islands simply don't get.

    But here's the other thing. Israel is a little bit ahead of us, and has opened the borders and removed restrictons and...

    They're doing fine. All the evidence - so far - is that vaccines are incredibly effective at preventing both serious disease and transmission of the virus.

    Truckers is one thing.

    People flying in from Africa or Peru or India is another.
  • Options
    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,129
    glw said:

    'Battling cancer' is just about the WORST thing you could tell someone to do. The absolute worst. 'Reclaiming your health' is what we should be telling people with cancer to do. 'Bravely reclaimed her health' is something we don't see in obituaries, because people who reclaim their health, win. People who battle cancer, lose.

    I really dislike the "battling cancer" talk. It implies that somehow the sufferer has some ability to fend off cancer. "If you fight harder you'll live." It's nonsense. The best description I've heard was one Danny Baker came up with, when he had cancer he said he was not battling cancer, but he was the the battlefield for a fight between cancer and medicine. From the people I've known who have had cancer that seems much more accurate.
    Battling can mean "struggling with" - which makes more sense. But I think it's just a turn of phrase really in the cancer context. The idea is to inject agency into a situation that is removing it. The strictly accurate word is "hosting" but this is understandably not a way that most people would want to put it.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,849
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    As I said a few days ago, India has the potential to be the worst Covid story of all (it was likewise the worst in Spanish flu)

    If this variant evades the vaccines, and if it can reinfect, then we are fucked. These are big ifs. But it is possible. Our government is, apparently, incapable of closing our borders, so it will come here in big waves (it is here already, in small numbers, of course)

    Well done, Boris. Well done
    Has anyone published the criteria for 'red listing' a country yet? It seems to be a rather arcane process. If there were a set of criteria it would be easier to hold politicians to account for not doing it.
    The red list should be: the entire world.

    Tough shit if you get stuck on the wrong side of the barrier. We’re an island and we’re making the most of that. NZ, OZ and Taiwan show that this WORKS
    Yes. There's something a little follow-the-money-esque about the whole thing isn't there? The Government just don't seem to want aviation to take a hit. Likewise commuting and London. Perhaps it relates to large scale projects like HS2 and Runway 3 that are considered too big to fail.
    It's also a little more complex than that.

    We have truckers coming in, and the other islands don't. Completely sealing the borders is therefore much harder for us than for them. I mean, we could do it, but there would be an economic impact for us that the other islands simply don't get.

    But here's the other thing. Israel is a little bit ahead of us, and has opened the borders and removed restrictons and...

    They're doing fine. All the evidence - so far - is that vaccines are incredibly effective at preventing both serious disease and transmission of the virus.

    Utter bollocks. Israel has not ‘opened its borders’. Here, look:

    https://israel.travel/covid19/

    ‘At the moment, and until further notice, entry to Israel will be refused to non-citizens or non-residents of Israel arriving from anywhere in the world. In exceptional cases, one may apply for approval of the Foreign Ministry subject to proof of the ability to remain in self-isolation for 14 days.’

    Also, the variants of concern, now, are the flash new Brazilian and this exciting Indian twist. SAbug is so Last Winter
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,161

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    As I said a few days ago, India has the potential to be the worst Covid story of all (it was likewise the worst in Spanish flu)

    If this variant evades the vaccines, and if it can reinfect, then we are fucked. These are big ifs. But it is possible. Our government is, apparently, incapable of closing our borders, so it will come here in big waves (it is here already, in small numbers, of course)

    Well done, Boris. Well done
    Has anyone published the criteria for 'red listing' a country yet? It seems to be a rather arcane process. If there were a set of criteria it would be easier to hold politicians to account for not doing it.
    The red list should be: the entire world.

    Tough shit if you get stuck on the wrong side of the barrier. We’re an island and we’re making the most of that. NZ, OZ and Taiwan show that this WORKS
    Yes. There's something a little follow-the-money-esque about the whole thing isn't there? The Government just don't seem to want aviation to take a hit. Likewise commuting and London. Perhaps it relates to large scale projects like HS2 and Runway 3 that are considered too big to fail.
    It's also a little more complex than that.

    We have truckers coming in, and the other islands don't. Completely sealing the borders is therefore much harder for us than for them. I mean, we could do it, but there would be an economic impact for us that the other islands simply don't get.

    But here's the other thing. Israel is a little bit ahead of us, and has opened the borders and removed restrictons and...

    They're doing fine. All the evidence - so far - is that vaccines are incredibly effective at preventing both serious disease and transmission of the virus.

    Truckers is one thing.

    People flying in from Africa or Peru or India is another.
    Exactly. Stop what can be stopped. Allow only absolutely essential freight and so on.

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,922
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    As I said a few days ago, India has the potential to be the worst Covid story of all (it was likewise the worst in Spanish flu)

    If this variant evades the vaccines, and if it can reinfect, then we are fucked. These are big ifs. But it is possible. Our government is, apparently, incapable of closing our borders, so it will come here in big waves (it is here already, in small numbers, of course)

    Well done, Boris. Well done
    Has anyone published the criteria for 'red listing' a country yet? It seems to be a rather arcane process. If there were a set of criteria it would be easier to hold politicians to account for not doing it.
    The red list should be: the entire world.

    Tough shit if you get stuck on the wrong side of the barrier. We’re an island and we’re making the most of that. NZ, OZ and Taiwan show that this WORKS
    Yes. There's something a little follow-the-money-esque about the whole thing isn't there? The Government just don't seem to want aviation to take a hit. Likewise commuting and London. Perhaps it relates to large scale projects like HS2 and Runway 3 that are considered too big to fail.
    It's also a little more complex than that.

    We have truckers coming in, and the other islands don't. Completely sealing the borders is therefore much harder for us than for them. I mean, we could do it, but there would be an economic impact for us that the other islands simply don't get.

    But here's the other thing. Israel is a little bit ahead of us, and has opened the borders and removed restrictons and...

    They're doing fine. All the evidence - so far - is that vaccines are incredibly effective at preventing both serious disease and transmission of the virus.

    Utter bollocks. Israel has not ‘opened its borders’. Here, look:

    https://israel.travel/covid19/

    ‘At the moment, and until further notice, entry to Israel will be refused to non-citizens or non-residents of Israel arriving from anywhere in the world. In exceptional cases, one may apply for approval of the Foreign Ministry subject to proof of the ability to remain in self-isolation for 14 days.’

    Also, the variants of concern, now, are the flash new Brazilian and this exciting Indian twist. SAbug is so Last Winter
    I apologise, I thought the previous resrtrictions had been lifted.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,161
    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    As I said a few days ago, India has the potential to be the worst Covid story of all (it was likewise the worst in Spanish flu)

    If this variant evades the vaccines, and if it can reinfect, then we are fucked. These are big ifs. But it is possible. Our government is, apparently, incapable of closing our borders, so it will come here in big waves (it is here already, in small numbers, of course)

    Well done, Boris. Well done
    Pfizer published efficacy numbers for the South African variant about 10 days ago - it was above 90%. In Israel, the SA variant is now the dominant local strain, but the vaccine is more than holding its own against it, with cases remaining at negligible levels.

    More worrying is that the AZ vaccine doesn't appear to perform as well as Pfizer. It may very well be that we'll be going round giving people a top-up of Moderna or Pfizer sooner rather than later.
    There was an interesting but small study out of Israel that appeared to show that there may be some breakthrough of the SA variant in Pfizer immunised.

    https://twitter.com/Reuters_Health/status/1381117346333519873?s=19
    That article says the SA prevalence in Israel is low.

    @rcs1000 says its dominant.

    ?
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,849

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    As I said a few days ago, India has the potential to be the worst Covid story of all (it was likewise the worst in Spanish flu)

    If this variant evades the vaccines, and if it can reinfect, then we are fucked. These are big ifs. But it is possible. Our government is, apparently, incapable of closing our borders, so it will come here in big waves (it is here already, in small numbers, of course)

    Well done, Boris. Well done
    Has anyone published the criteria for 'red listing' a country yet? It seems to be a rather arcane process. If there were a set of criteria it would be easier to hold politicians to account for not doing it.
    The red list should be: the entire world.

    Tough shit if you get stuck on the wrong side of the barrier. We’re an island and we’re making the most of that. NZ, OZ and Taiwan show that this WORKS
    Yes. There's something a little follow-the-money-esque about the whole thing isn't there? The Government just don't seem to want aviation to take a hit. Likewise commuting and London. Perhaps it relates to large scale projects like HS2 and Runway 3 that are considered too big to fail.
    It's also a little more complex than that.

    We have truckers coming in, and the other islands don't. Completely sealing the borders is therefore much harder for us than for them. I mean, we could do it, but there would be an economic impact for us that the other islands simply don't get.

    But here's the other thing. Israel is a little bit ahead of us, and has opened the borders and removed restrictons and...

    They're doing fine. All the evidence - so far - is that vaccines are incredibly effective at preventing both serious disease and transmission of the virus.

    Truckers is one thing.

    People flying in from Africa or Peru or India is another.
    Exactly. Stop what can be stopped. Allow only absolutely essential freight and so on.

    Also truck drivers can be isolated very easily. They come into the country in a sealed cabin. Literally. They don’t drop off their goods then do a walking tour of Savernake Forest. They’re on a job. So. Get them tested. Make them stay in designated, quarantined hotels. Ask them politely to leave again, without interacting with the natives. It’s not quantum chromodynamics

  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531
    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    To put this into perspective though, 233,757 scaled for population is the equivalent of 11,405 cases in the UK, and 1,338 deaths is like 65 deaths. It's such a huge country. And the anecdotal reports of "most households having someone" with Covid this week suggest to me some places may already be getting close to saturation.

    Of course variants don't care about per capita figures, they just like lots and lots of infections so India like Brazil is an ideal variant breeding ground, but there's a long way to go before India gets even close to the levels of infection and death of most of Western Europe. And they're the world's biggest vaccine producer.

    The Latin American story is the most tragic. Just month upon month of relentless infection and death in Mexico, Peru, Brazil, Colombia, Argentina and so on.
    I think though that India should be regarded as a continent, and the rates considered by state. It seems to be mostly Maharashta, Delhi and Gujerat that are affected, with much lower rates elsewhere. This must be very hard on those particular areas.

    Ahmedabad sounds bad. A lot of Leicester folk have family there.

    https://twitter.com/LangaMahesh/status/1382913258286370818?s=09
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,046

    If every airline and every airport goes bust in order to keep us safe, and to allow socialising with family and friends, hugs, staycations and pints in pubs with friends, then, sorry airline industry, it’s been nice knowing you.

    If by staycation you mean holidays in the UK then the description should be holidays in the UK.

    Is there any other country in which people describe a holiday in their own country as something other than a holiday ?
  • Options
    Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    As I said a few days ago, India has the potential to be the worst Covid story of all (it was likewise the worst in Spanish flu)

    If this variant evades the vaccines, and if it can reinfect, then we are fucked. These are big ifs. But it is possible. Our government is, apparently, incapable of closing our borders, so it will come here in big waves (it is here already, in small numbers, of course)

    Well done, Boris. Well done
    There was, apparently, a bloody great stampede from Pakistan when it was announced (in advance, naturally, to give people time to get back and dodge the hotel quarantine requirement) that the country was going on the red list. I dare say the same will happen if and when India is similarly proscribed.

    Though it isn't yet, of course, so travellers from India are free to come here whenever they feel like it.
    I seriously suspect that the government wants all variants to get here so that they can then remove all international travels restrictions on the basis that they don't work.
    My personal theory is that, having already had the Kent Plague thoroughly saturate the land, they are now gambling that they can get away with letting in a certain number of other variant cases (though without them gaining a proper foothold,) so that a continual atmosphere of low-level emergency can be maintained. If there are always panic stories about variants in the press and a continuous rolling program of surge testing all over the country, then things cannot go back to normal - and that's the excuse for...

    +maintaining many of the restrictions indefinitely (the scientists mostly seem to expect, and to want, a load of rules this Winter anyway, so it's easiest not to get rid of them in the first place)
    +introducing ID cards, as a trade off for loosening some of these endless restrictions, once the system has been built and made to work

    Emergency also serves to defang the (in any event) weak opposition, and it plays very well with many millions of very frightened old people who aren't bothered if it's made inconvenient and unpleasant to go out and do things (because they mostly don't go out and do things); approve of enforced mask wearing and social distancing everywhere when they do make the anxiety-filled hobble to the shops a couple of times a week; and who will show their appreciation by voting Conservative even more enthusiastically than they already do.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,161
    glw said:

    If Johnson and Shapps have blown the vaccine miracle by continuing to allow international travel then this government should be swept from office pronto.

    One final mistake too many.

    Time and time again this issue has been raised.

    I can see civil unrest if the government says something like "the Bhutan strain has escaped our vaccines, we need to lockdown immediately for another three months".
    Indeed. Time to learn from Sweden in that case. Schools stay open for example.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,922

    Foxy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    As I said a few days ago, India has the potential to be the worst Covid story of all (it was likewise the worst in Spanish flu)

    If this variant evades the vaccines, and if it can reinfect, then we are fucked. These are big ifs. But it is possible. Our government is, apparently, incapable of closing our borders, so it will come here in big waves (it is here already, in small numbers, of course)

    Well done, Boris. Well done
    Pfizer published efficacy numbers for the South African variant about 10 days ago - it was above 90%. In Israel, the SA variant is now the dominant local strain, but the vaccine is more than holding its own against it, with cases remaining at negligible levels.

    More worrying is that the AZ vaccine doesn't appear to perform as well as Pfizer. It may very well be that we'll be going round giving people a top-up of Moderna or Pfizer sooner rather than later.
    There was an interesting but small study out of Israel that appeared to show that there may be some breakthrough of the SA variant in Pfizer immunised.

    https://twitter.com/Reuters_Health/status/1381117346333519873?s=19
    That article says the SA prevalence in Israel is low.

    @rcs1000 says its dominant.

    ?
    They aren't in disagreement. See https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.06.21254882v1.full

    It means the overall prevalence of the SA variant is low, simply because CV19 cases are low.
  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,849
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    As I said a few days ago, India has the potential to be the worst Covid story of all (it was likewise the worst in Spanish flu)

    If this variant evades the vaccines, and if it can reinfect, then we are fucked. These are big ifs. But it is possible. Our government is, apparently, incapable of closing our borders, so it will come here in big waves (it is here already, in small numbers, of course)

    Well done, Boris. Well done
    Has anyone published the criteria for 'red listing' a country yet? It seems to be a rather arcane process. If there were a set of criteria it would be easier to hold politicians to account for not doing it.
    The red list should be: the entire world.

    Tough shit if you get stuck on the wrong side of the barrier. We’re an island and we’re making the most of that. NZ, OZ and Taiwan show that this WORKS
    Yes. There's something a little follow-the-money-esque about the whole thing isn't there? The Government just don't seem to want aviation to take a hit. Likewise commuting and London. Perhaps it relates to large scale projects like HS2 and Runway 3 that are considered too big to fail.
    It's also a little more complex than that.

    We have truckers coming in, and the other islands don't. Completely sealing the borders is therefore much harder for us than for them. I mean, we could do it, but there would be an economic impact for us that the other islands simply don't get.

    But here's the other thing. Israel is a little bit ahead of us, and has opened the borders and removed restrictons and...

    They're doing fine. All the evidence - so far - is that vaccines are incredibly effective at preventing both serious disease and transmission of the virus.

    Utter bollocks. Israel has not ‘opened its borders’. Here, look:

    https://israel.travel/covid19/

    ‘At the moment, and until further notice, entry to Israel will be refused to non-citizens or non-residents of Israel arriving from anywhere in the world. In exceptional cases, one may apply for approval of the Foreign Ministry subject to proof of the ability to remain in self-isolation for 14 days.’

    Also, the variants of concern, now, are the flash new Brazilian and this exciting Indian twist. SAbug is so Last Winter
    I apologise, I thought the previous resrtrictions had been lifted.
    That was swift and gracious. Fair enough

    I do like your optimism on Covid-19, and often find it a tonic. But for the moment, on the new variants, it is misplaced. We just don’t know yet
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531
    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    As I said a few days ago, India has the potential to be the worst Covid story of all (it was likewise the worst in Spanish flu)

    If this variant evades the vaccines, and if it can reinfect, then we are fucked. These are big ifs. But it is possible. Our government is, apparently, incapable of closing our borders, so it will come here in big waves (it is here already, in small numbers, of course)

    Well done, Boris. Well done
    Has anyone published the criteria for 'red listing' a country yet? It seems to be a rather arcane process. If there were a set of criteria it would be easier to hold politicians to account for not doing it.
    The red list should be: the entire world.

    Tough shit if you get stuck on the wrong side of the barrier. We’re an island and we’re making the most of that. NZ, OZ and Taiwan show that this WORKS
    Yes. There's something a little follow-the-money-esque about the whole thing isn't there? The Government just don't seem to want aviation to take a hit. Likewise commuting and London. Perhaps it relates to large scale projects like HS2 and Runway 3 that are considered too big to fail.
    It's also a little more complex than that.

    We have truckers coming in, and the other islands don't. Completely sealing the borders is therefore much harder for us than for them. I mean, we could do it, but there would be an economic impact for us that the other islands simply don't get.

    But here's the other thing. Israel is a little bit ahead of us, and has opened the borders and removed restrictons and...

    They're doing fine. All the evidence - so far - is that vaccines are incredibly effective at preventing both serious disease and transmission of the virus.

    Utter bollocks. Israel has not ‘opened its borders’. Here, look:

    https://israel.travel/covid19/

    ‘At the moment, and until further notice, entry to Israel will be refused to non-citizens or non-residents of Israel arriving from anywhere in the world. In exceptional cases, one may apply for approval of the Foreign Ministry subject to proof of the ability to remain in self-isolation for 14 days.’

    Also, the variants of concern, now, are the flash new Brazilian and this exciting Indian twist. SAbug is so Last Winter
    I apologise, I thought the previous resrtrictions had been lifted.
    That was swift and gracious. Fair enough

    I do like your optimism on Covid-19, and often find it a tonic. But for the moment, on the new variants, it is misplaced. We just don’t know yet
    Yes. By far the biggest threat to recovery is new resistant variants. Unlock internally, but lockdown the borders please.
  • Options
    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,046

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    As I said a few days ago, India has the potential to be the worst Covid story of all (it was likewise the worst in Spanish flu)

    If this variant evades the vaccines, and if it can reinfect, then we are fucked. These are big ifs. But it is possible. Our government is, apparently, incapable of closing our borders, so it will come here in big waves (it is here already, in small numbers, of course)

    Well done, Boris. Well done
    There was, apparently, a bloody great stampede from Pakistan when it was announced (in advance, naturally, to give people time to get back and dodge the hotel quarantine requirement) that the country was going on the red list. I dare say the same will happen if and when India is similarly proscribed.

    Though it isn't yet, of course, so travellers from India are free to come here whenever they feel like it.
    I seriously suspect that the government wants all variants to get here so that they can then remove all international travels restrictions on the basis that they don't work.
    My personal theory is that, having already had the Kent Plague thoroughly saturate the land, they are now gambling that they can get away with letting in a certain number of other variant cases (though without them gaining a proper foothold,) so that a continual atmosphere of low-level emergency can be maintained. If there are always panic stories about variants in the press and a continuous rolling program of surge testing all over the country, then things cannot go back to normal - and that's the excuse for...

    +maintaining many of the restrictions indefinitely (the scientists mostly seem to expect, and to want, a load of rules this Winter anyway, so it's easiest not to get rid of them in the first place)
    +introducing ID cards, as a trade off for loosening some of these endless restrictions, once the system has been built and made to work

    Emergency also serves to defang the (in any event) weak opposition, and it plays very well with many millions of very frightened old people who aren't bothered if it's made inconvenient and unpleasant to go out and do things (because they mostly don't go out and do things); approve of enforced mask wearing and social distancing everywhere when they do make the anxiety-filled hobble to the shops a couple of times a week; and who will show their appreciation by voting Conservative even more enthusiastically than they already do.
    I would add:

    1) They don't want to upset people who like unrestricted travel - politicians, media types, holiday obsessives.

    2) They don't want to upset economic sectors which want unrestricted travel - not just aviation but those who want migrant workers to move around the world quickly and cheaply (see allowing Polish abattoir workers to come to the UK before Christmas as an example).
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,313
    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    As I said a few days ago, India has the potential to be the worst Covid story of all (it was likewise the worst in Spanish flu)

    If this variant evades the vaccines, and if it can reinfect, then we are fucked. These are big ifs. But it is possible. Our government is, apparently, incapable of closing our borders, so it will come here in big waves (it is here already, in small numbers, of course)

    Well done, Boris. Well done
    Has anyone published the criteria for 'red listing' a country yet? It seems to be a rather arcane process. If there were a set of criteria it would be easier to hold politicians to account for not doing it.
    The red list should be: the entire world.

    Tough shit if you get stuck on the wrong side of the barrier. We’re an island and we’re making the most of that. NZ, OZ and Taiwan show that this WORKS
    Yes. There's something a little follow-the-money-esque about the whole thing isn't there? The Government just don't seem to want aviation to take a hit. Likewise commuting and London. Perhaps it relates to large scale projects like HS2 and Runway 3 that are considered too big to fail.
    It's also a little more complex than that.

    We have truckers coming in, and the other islands don't. Completely sealing the borders is therefore much harder for us than for them. I mean, we could do it, but there would be an economic impact for us that the other islands simply don't get.

    But here's the other thing. Israel is a little bit ahead of us, and has opened the borders and removed restrictons and...

    They're doing fine. All the evidence - so far - is that vaccines are incredibly effective at preventing both serious disease and transmission of the virus.

    Yes, that is a blessing, however, if it is complex, I don't see that complexity in your post. If you're driving an HGV, come on in. That still excludes a vast amount of people currently being allowed to meander in.
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,211
    Foxy said:

    TimS said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    To put this into perspective though, 233,757 scaled for population is the equivalent of 11,405 cases in the UK, and 1,338 deaths is like 65 deaths. It's such a huge country. And the anecdotal reports of "most households having someone" with Covid this week suggest to me some places may already be getting close to saturation.

    Of course variants don't care about per capita figures, they just like lots and lots of infections so India like Brazil is an ideal variant breeding ground, but there's a long way to go before India gets even close to the levels of infection and death of most of Western Europe. And they're the world's biggest vaccine producer.

    The Latin American story is the most tragic. Just month upon month of relentless infection and death in Mexico, Peru, Brazil, Colombia, Argentina and so on.
    I think though that India should be regarded as a continent, and the rates considered by state. It seems to be mostly Maharashta, Delhi and Gujerat that are affected, with much lower rates elsewhere. This must be very hard on those particular areas.

    Ahmedabad sounds bad. A lot of Leicester folk have family there.

    https://twitter.com/LangaMahesh/status/1382913258286370818?s=09
    Must have been the cricket?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,059
    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    More seriously, THIS could destroy the Tories overnight


    ‘New Covid variants appear to be escaping vaccines, with the latest figures showing a doubling in cases of the South African mutation in the UK in the last month.’

    ‘The outbreak in London is thought to have been triggered by an individual travelling from a country in Africa to the UK in February, with cases spreading to members of their household and then to a care home in Lambeth, which is understood to have suffered at least 23 infections.’

    Why was ANYONE allowed into the UK from Africa in February? If they did get in, why weren’t they isolated in a prison-like environment for 3 weeks until tested 9 times and proven safe? I don’t care if they were coming back to see a dying mother. Tough shit. I haven’t seen my mother since last summer. No one in the UK can go anywhere

    This boils my blood. If all our lockdowns prove pointless because Boris couldn’t seal the borders I will vote Anything But Tory for the rest of recorded time

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/16/fears-covid-variants-escaping-vaccines-cases-south-african-strain/

    23 cases in a care home? Would have all been well post vaccination. Ominous.

    Were any of them admitted
    I was told earlier this that the government will not place new residents in care homes unless at least 70% of staff are vaccinated. It’s causing some concern in the industry - hence Pete Calveley’s comments
    Yes, that’s all well and good, Charles, but the more pressing question is: do you have a room dedicated to fucking-a-Bananarama-on-the-tumble-dryer, and, presuming you do, like most well-educated English gentlefolk, what do you do with this room on the rare occasions when it doesn’t actually contain a Bananarama being fucked on the tumbledryer?

    You can’t avoid these questions forever, it’s like the SNP and the currency issue.
    I spent a very fun evening with Marianne Faithful when I was young. She could have made one of your devices out of her voice
    I thought she favoured confectionery.
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,059
    John Dawes RIP
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,826
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    More seriously, THIS could destroy the Tories overnight


    ‘New Covid variants appear to be escaping vaccines, with the latest figures showing a doubling in cases of the South African mutation in the UK in the last month.’

    ‘The outbreak in London is thought to have been triggered by an individual travelling from a country in Africa to the UK in February, with cases spreading to members of their household and then to a care home in Lambeth, which is understood to have suffered at least 23 infections.’

    Why was ANYONE allowed into the UK from Africa in February? If they did get in, why weren’t they isolated in a prison-like environment for 3 weeks until tested 9 times and proven safe? I don’t care if they were coming back to see a dying mother. Tough shit. I haven’t seen my mother since last summer. No one in the UK can go anywhere

    This boils my blood. If all our lockdowns prove pointless because Boris couldn’t seal the borders I will vote Anything But Tory for the rest of recorded time

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/16/fears-covid-variants-escaping-vaccines-cases-south-african-strain/

    23 cases in a care home? Would have all been well post vaccination. Ominous.

    Were any of them admitted
    I was told earlier this that the government will not place new residents in care homes unless at least 70% of staff are vaccinated. It’s causing some concern in the industry - hence Pete Calveley’s comments
    Yes, that’s all well and good, Charles, but the more pressing question is: do you have a room dedicated to fucking-a-Bananarama-on-the-tumble-dryer, and, presuming you do, like most well-educated English gentlefolk, what do you do with this room on the rare occasions when it doesn’t actually contain a Bananarama being fucked on the tumbledryer?

    You can’t avoid these questions forever, it’s like the SNP and the currency issue.
    I spent a very fun evening with Marianne Faithful when I was young. She could have made one of your devices out of her voice
    I thought she favoured confectionery.
    She claimed that was malicious slander
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    More seriously, THIS could destroy the Tories overnight


    ‘New Covid variants appear to be escaping vaccines, with the latest figures showing a doubling in cases of the South African mutation in the UK in the last month.’

    ‘The outbreak in London is thought to have been triggered by an individual travelling from a country in Africa to the UK in February, with cases spreading to members of their household and then to a care home in Lambeth, which is understood to have suffered at least 23 infections.’

    Why was ANYONE allowed into the UK from Africa in February? If they did get in, why weren’t they isolated in a prison-like environment for 3 weeks until tested 9 times and proven safe? I don’t care if they were coming back to see a dying mother. Tough shit. I haven’t seen my mother since last summer. No one in the UK can go anywhere

    This boils my blood. If all our lockdowns prove pointless because Boris couldn’t seal the borders I will vote Anything But Tory for the rest of recorded time

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/16/fears-covid-variants-escaping-vaccines-cases-south-african-strain/

    23 cases in a care home? Would have all been well post vaccination. Ominous.

    Were any of them admitted
    I was told earlier this that the government will not place new residents in care homes unless at least 70% of staff are vaccinated. It’s causing some concern in the industry - hence Pete Calveley’s comments
    Yes, that’s all well and good, Charles, but the more pressing question is: do you have a room dedicated to fucking-a-Bananarama-on-the-tumble-dryer, and, presuming you do, like most well-educated English gentlefolk, what do you do with this room on the rare occasions when it doesn’t actually contain a Bananarama being fucked on the tumbledryer?

    You can’t avoid these questions forever, it’s like the SNP and the currency issue.
    I spent a very fun evening with Marianne Faithful when I was young. She could have made one of your devices out of her voice
    I thought she favoured confectionery.
    Men are from Mars, women from Venus.

    Marianne Faithful is the exception that proves the rule.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,922
    Right, I'm off to do some work. Have a great weekend all.
  • Options
    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,313
    kinabalu said:

    glw said:

    'Battling cancer' is just about the WORST thing you could tell someone to do. The absolute worst. 'Reclaiming your health' is what we should be telling people with cancer to do. 'Bravely reclaimed her health' is something we don't see in obituaries, because people who reclaim their health, win. People who battle cancer, lose.

    I really dislike the "battling cancer" talk. It implies that somehow the sufferer has some ability to fend off cancer. "If you fight harder you'll live." It's nonsense. The best description I've heard was one Danny Baker came up with, when he had cancer he said he was not battling cancer, but he was the the battlefield for a fight between cancer and medicine. From the people I've known who have had cancer that seems much more accurate.
    Battling can mean "struggling with" - which makes more sense. But I think it's just a turn of phrase really in the cancer context. The idea is to inject agency into a situation that is removing it. The strictly accurate word is "hosting" but this is understandably not a way that most people would want to put it.
    I don't agree with glw above, or this post, I am afraid. The sufferer absolutely has agency in the situation, and their body is still on their side, and wants to be healthy.

    The reason I disagree so strongly with the terminology of 'battling cancer' is because it focuses the mind of the individual on this 'thing' that is in their body, as opposed to what it should be focused upon - restoring the body to health. There are a million ways to help reclaim health following a diagnosis of cancer, and I do not believe that any cancer is terminal, because if a body got into the process, it has the capacity, properly supported, to reverse the process.

    'Hosting cancer' is an equally negative expression - again, it focuses on the cancer, not the return to health.

    I apply the same philosophy to 'battling racism' as you know.

  • Options
    LeonLeon Posts: 46,849
    Some tough videos out of India atm.

    "Biggest difference between 2020 and 2021 is that I am treating 5 year old children with serious pneumonia"- Doctor Swaroop Hegde tells me as I report #OnTheRoad from the SRV COVID Hospital in Mumbai. His full interview is dire & a must watch here: youtube.com/watch?v=j3En5w…“

    https://twitter.com/bdutt/status/1382987875331940355?s=21
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,059
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    More seriously, THIS could destroy the Tories overnight


    ‘New Covid variants appear to be escaping vaccines, with the latest figures showing a doubling in cases of the South African mutation in the UK in the last month.’

    ‘The outbreak in London is thought to have been triggered by an individual travelling from a country in Africa to the UK in February, with cases spreading to members of their household and then to a care home in Lambeth, which is understood to have suffered at least 23 infections.’

    Why was ANYONE allowed into the UK from Africa in February? If they did get in, why weren’t they isolated in a prison-like environment for 3 weeks until tested 9 times and proven safe? I don’t care if they were coming back to see a dying mother. Tough shit. I haven’t seen my mother since last summer. No one in the UK can go anywhere

    This boils my blood. If all our lockdowns prove pointless because Boris couldn’t seal the borders I will vote Anything But Tory for the rest of recorded time

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/16/fears-covid-variants-escaping-vaccines-cases-south-african-strain/

    23 cases in a care home? Would have all been well post vaccination. Ominous.

    Were any of them admitted
    I was told earlier this that the government will not place new residents in care homes unless at least 70% of staff are vaccinated. It’s causing some concern in the industry - hence Pete Calveley’s comments
    Yes, that’s all well and good, Charles, but the more pressing question is: do you have a room dedicated to fucking-a-Bananarama-on-the-tumble-dryer, and, presuming you do, like most well-educated English gentlefolk, what do you do with this room on the rare occasions when it doesn’t actually contain a Bananarama being fucked on the tumbledryer?

    You can’t avoid these questions forever, it’s like the SNP and the currency issue.
    I spent a very fun evening with Marianne Faithful when I was young. She could have made one of your devices out of her voice
    I thought she favoured confectionery.
    Men are from Mars, women from Venus.

    Marianne Faithful is the exception that proves the rule.
    I wonder whether @MarqueeMark 's movie biopic of Sir Mick's former squeeze will contain any product placement?
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,531
    edited April 2021

    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Leon said:

    More seriously, THIS could destroy the Tories overnight


    ‘New Covid variants appear to be escaping vaccines, with the latest figures showing a doubling in cases of the South African mutation in the UK in the last month.’

    ‘The outbreak in London is thought to have been triggered by an individual travelling from a country in Africa to the UK in February, with cases spreading to members of their household and then to a care home in Lambeth, which is understood to have suffered at least 23 infections.’

    Why was ANYONE allowed into the UK from Africa in February? If they did get in, why weren’t they isolated in a prison-like environment for 3 weeks until tested 9 times and proven safe? I don’t care if they were coming back to see a dying mother. Tough shit. I haven’t seen my mother since last summer. No one in the UK can go anywhere

    This boils my blood. If all our lockdowns prove pointless because Boris couldn’t seal the borders I will vote Anything But Tory for the rest of recorded time

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/16/fears-covid-variants-escaping-vaccines-cases-south-african-strain/

    23 cases in a care home? Would have all been well post vaccination. Ominous.

    Were any of them admitted
    I was told earlier this that the government will not place new residents in care homes unless at least 70% of staff are vaccinated. It’s causing some concern in the industry - hence Pete Calveley’s comments
    Yes, that’s all well and good, Charles, but the more pressing question is: do you have a room dedicated to fucking-a-Bananarama-on-the-tumble-dryer, and, presuming you do, like most well-educated English gentlefolk, what do you do with this room on the rare occasions when it doesn’t actually contain a Bananarama being fucked on the tumbledryer?

    You can’t avoid these questions forever, it’s like the SNP and the currency issue.
    I spent a very fun evening with Marianne Faithful when I was young. She could have made one of your devices out of her voice
    I thought she favoured confectionery.
    Men are from Mars, women from Venus.

    Marianne Faithful is the exception that proves the rule.
    I wonder whether @MarqueeMark 's movie biopic of Sir Mick's former squeeze will contain any product placement?
    You can't lick that for a pun.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Three years is a long time in politics, a very long time. Nonetheless, I'm going to stick my neck out and say that it's not long enough for Sir Keir to turn things round. He's dull as ditchwater, he's an awful speaker, he doesn't seem to have any coherent position on anything, and Labour is starting from a very bad position electorally, organisationally, and in terms of public perception following the Corbyn years.

    Even all that might not be irretrievable if it weren't for the fact that his shadow cabinet is even worse. At least one can envisage Starmer as PM without difficulty, but even Labour party members don't seem to think much of the Shadow Chancellor, Shadow Health Sec or Shadow Home Sec, if indeed they've noticed them at all.

    It's a hell of a lot to turn round, and as things stand he seems to be losing ground, not gaining it.

    For someone with an astute political sixth sense, and with such an analytical track record as yourself, I am surprised you aren't considering how volatlle or even soft three or four percent of the Tory vote has been over the last year. That could make a big difference, come the next election.

    As it stands today, it looks like a comfortable Johnsonian Conservatives win, but if Johnson has another mare of a few months, as he his from late spring to December last year, and it occurs between now and the next election he could be in a spot of bother. Remember too, since mid December and the vaccine roll out, the news agenda until this week was wholly positive to the Johnson cause. That has changed this week and the news has been more Boris neutral (which is why I am more surprised by the YouGov than the Survation). I say Boris neutral as I am convinced the Cameron saga is associated with the Blair era rather than the Johnson era. If the Yougov is true it might be a case of the captives thanking their captors for their release this week.

    And then there is the economy to consider. Will it play out as a three year post Brexit and post pandemic spending boom, as Philip Thompson asserts or will it be somewhat less impressive?

    Starmer is no Blair, but neither is he an IDS or a Corbyn. Maybe he is Michael Howard, and the time is not quite right, but as I keep saying, Starmer doesn't scare the horses, and Governments lose elections. Besides which, after five years of Johnson, we might decide we want a Prime Minister who is somewhat less erratic.
    I don't disagree with most of that, and I do agree that the most likely thing is that the current government (which is, after all, IMO the worst since WWII) will become very unpopular over the next couple of years.

    But that's not enough. The mantra that it is governments that lose elections is only half-true in my view. Yes, government unpopularity is a necessary condition for a change of regime, but it's not a sufficient condition: the opposition also needs to be a credible alternative. Think 1992 or 2005.

    In addition, there's the Scotland millstone hanging around Starmer's neck, making the task even harder than it was for his predecessors.
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,907

    If every airline and every airport goes bust in order to keep us safe, and to allow socialising with family and friends, hugs, staycations and pints in pubs with friends, then, sorry airline industry, it’s been nice knowing you.

    If by staycation you mean holidays in the UK then the description should be holidays in the UK.

    Is there any other country in which people describe a holiday in their own country as something other than a holiday ?
    Very good post. It’s a daft usage.

    I always took staycation to mean “days off spent in my home” - I’m sure that was its meaning at some stage?

    Do Parisians consider it a “staycation” when they go skiing at Les Arcs in the February half term?

  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,059

    Three years is a long time in politics, a very long time. Nonetheless, I'm going to stick my neck out and say that it's not long enough for Sir Keir to turn things round. He's dull as ditchwater, he's an awful speaker, he doesn't seem to have any coherent position on anything, and Labour is starting from a very bad position electorally, organisationally, and in terms of public perception following the Corbyn years.

    Even all that might not be irretrievable if it weren't for the fact that his shadow cabinet is even worse. At least one can envisage Starmer as PM without difficulty, but even Labour party members don't seem to think much of the Shadow Chancellor, Shadow Health Sec or Shadow Home Sec, if indeed they've noticed them at all.

    It's a hell of a lot to turn round, and as things stand he seems to be losing ground, not gaining it.

    For someone with an astute political sixth sense, and with such an analytical track record as yourself, I am surprised you aren't considering how volatlle or even soft three or four percent of the Tory vote has been over the last year. That could make a big difference, come the next election.

    As it stands today, it looks like a comfortable Johnsonian Conservatives win, but if Johnson has another mare of a few months, as he his from late spring to December last year, and it occurs between now and the next election he could be in a spot of bother. Remember too, since mid December and the vaccine roll out, the news agenda until this week was wholly positive to the Johnson cause. That has changed this week and the news has been more Boris neutral (which is why I am more surprised by the YouGov than the Survation). I say Boris neutral as I am convinced the Cameron saga is associated with the Blair era rather than the Johnson era. If the Yougov is true it might be a case of the captives thanking their captors for their release this week.

    And then there is the economy to consider. Will it play out as a three year post Brexit and post pandemic spending boom, as Philip Thompson asserts or will it be somewhat less impressive?

    Starmer is no Blair, but neither is he an IDS or a Corbyn. Maybe he is Michael Howard, and the time is not quite right, but as I keep saying, Starmer doesn't scare the horses, and Governments lose elections. Besides which, after five years of Johnson, we might decide we want a Prime Minister who is somewhat less erratic.
    I don't disagree with most of that, and I do agree that the most likely thing is that the current government (which is, after all, IMO the worst since WWII) will become very unpopular over the next couple of years.

    But that's not enough. The mantra that it is governments that lose elections is only half-true in my view. Yes, government unpopularity is a necessary condition for a change of regime, but it's not a sufficient condition: the opposition also needs to be a credible alternative. Think 1992 or 2005.

    In addition, there's the Scotland millstone hanging around Starmer's neck, making the task even harder than it was for his predecessors.
    Scotland is indeed a big problem.

    In some respects it would be poetic justice if Johnson is still holding the parcel and carries the can for the carnage that will occur post GE 2023/4. I am of an age where another 8 years of Johnson will see around half of my remaining years under the management of this ****wit.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607

    rcs1000 said:

    Leon said:

    Leon said:

    Foxy said:

    Andy_JS said:

    We have a potentially dangerous variant from India, but I don't think India has been put on the red list yet?

    Looking grim:

    BREAKING: India reports 233,757 new coronavirus cases, by far the biggest one-day increase so far, and a record 1,338 new deaths

    https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1383127597236764676?s=19
    As I said a few days ago, India has the potential to be the worst Covid story of all (it was likewise the worst in Spanish flu)

    If this variant evades the vaccines, and if it can reinfect, then we are fucked. These are big ifs. But it is possible. Our government is, apparently, incapable of closing our borders, so it will come here in big waves (it is here already, in small numbers, of course)

    Well done, Boris. Well done
    Has anyone published the criteria for 'red listing' a country yet? It seems to be a rather arcane process. If there were a set of criteria it would be easier to hold politicians to account for not doing it.
    The red list should be: the entire world.

    Tough shit if you get stuck on the wrong side of the barrier. We’re an island and we’re making the most of that. NZ, OZ and Taiwan show that this WORKS
    Yes. There's something a little follow-the-money-esque about the whole thing isn't there? The Government just don't seem to want aviation to take a hit. Likewise commuting and London. Perhaps it relates to large scale projects like HS2 and Runway 3 that are considered too big to fail.
    It's also a little more complex than that.

    We have truckers coming in, and the other islands don't. Completely sealing the borders is therefore much harder for us than for them. I mean, we could do it, but there would be an economic impact for us that the other islands simply don't get.

    But here's the other thing. Israel is a little bit ahead of us, and has opened the borders and removed restrictons and...

    They're doing fine. All the evidence - so far - is that vaccines are incredibly effective at preventing both serious disease and transmission of the virus.

    Truckers is one thing.

    People flying in from Africa or Peru or India is another.
    Exactly. Stop what can be stopped. Allow only absolutely essential freight and so on.

    This is what Starmer needs to be smashing the government on every single day.

    "The government has undoubtedly done a wonderful job with procuring vaccines for the country and the NHS has duly given them out to 33m people, why then is the government risking this great work by keeping the border open [list examples of imported variants]."

    Just ask Boris the same fucking question six times until he answers, do it every fucking week and every single time there's a new imported variant get a boost in the polls and also get the huge "I fucking told you, you lying cunt" moment. He'd have had three of these already vs none at the moment.
  • Options
    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Cookie said:

    If every airline and every airport goes bust in order to keep us safe, and to allow socialising with family and friends, hugs, staycations and pints in pubs with friends, then, sorry airline industry, it’s been nice knowing you.

    If by staycation you mean holidays in the UK then the description should be holidays in the UK.

    Is there any other country in which people describe a holiday in their own country as something other than a holiday ?
    Yes, until recently a staycation was a holiday IN YOUR OWN HOUSE.
    If a holiday has to leave this country to be a holiday then significant chunks of our population never have a holiday.
    I have, as it happens, been abroad a handful of times in the last twelve years (three). But I consider holidays no less of a holiday for not leaving these shores.
    I stay in my own home when I go to California. Does that make it a staycation?
  • Options
    AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 19,907
    edited April 2021

    Three years is a long time in politics, a very long time. Nonetheless, I'm going to stick my neck out and say that it's not long enough for Sir Keir to turn things round. He's dull as ditchwater, he's an awful speaker, he doesn't seem to have any coherent position on anything, and Labour is starting from a very bad position electorally, organisationally, and in terms of public perception following the Corbyn years.

    Even all that might not be irretrievable if it weren't for the fact that his shadow cabinet is even worse. At least one can envisage Starmer as PM without difficulty, but even Labour party members don't seem to think much of the Shadow Chancellor, Shadow Health Sec or Shadow Home Sec, if indeed they've noticed them at all.

    It's a hell of a lot to turn round, and as things stand he seems to be losing ground, not gaining it.

    For someone with an astute political sixth sense, and with such an analytical track record as yourself, I am surprised you aren't considering how volatlle or even soft three or four percent of the Tory vote has been over the last year. That could make a big difference, come the next election.

    As it stands today, it looks like a comfortable Johnsonian Conservatives win, but if Johnson has another mare of a few months, as he his from late spring to December last year, and it occurs between now and the next election he could be in a spot of bother. Remember too, since mid December and the vaccine roll out, the news agenda until this week was wholly positive to the Johnson cause. That has changed this week and the news has been more Boris neutral (which is why I am more surprised by the YouGov than the Survation). I say Boris neutral as I am convinced the Cameron saga is associated with the Blair era rather than the Johnson era. If the Yougov is true it might be a case of the captives thanking their captors for their release this week.

    And then there is the economy to consider. Will it play out as a three year post Brexit and post pandemic spending boom, as Philip Thompson asserts or will it be somewhat less impressive?

    Starmer is no Blair, but neither is he an IDS or a Corbyn. Maybe he is Michael Howard, and the time is not quite right, but as I keep saying, Starmer doesn't scare the horses, and Governments lose elections. Besides which, after five years of Johnson, we might decide we want a Prime Minister who is somewhat less erratic.
    I don't disagree with most of that, and I do agree that the most likely thing is that the current government (which is, after all, IMO the worst since WWII) will become very unpopular over the next couple of years.

    But that's not enough. The mantra that it is governments that lose elections is only half-true in my view. Yes, government unpopularity is a necessary condition for a change of regime, but it's not a sufficient condition: the opposition also needs to be a credible alternative. Think 1992 or 2005.

    In addition, there's the Scotland millstone hanging around Starmer's neck, making the task even harder than it was for his predecessors.
    My view is that Sir Keir’s value-add is to detoxify the party following the Corbyn years. Labour will need a rapid-fire switch to a telegenic female leader to win. This switch should be made close to the general election. Novelty can work, if you have a fairly benign party in place to back it up.

    Rosena Allin-Khan is the one to watch.
This discussion has been closed.