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The Greensill/Cameron affair comes as postal vote are about to go out for the May 6th elections – po
The Greensill/Cameron affair comes as postal vote are about to go out for the May 6th elections – politicalbetting.com
The Greensill/Cameron web of lobbying is growing.Who else do we need to add? pic.twitter.com/dOqQ1ajjLt
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There’s obviously an ongoing issue around lobbying. Part of the problem, of course, is that the questionable relationships only reveal themselves as obviously dubious at a later date.
Meanwhile in the big news story, Daily Star has more on the aliens who have, allegedly, made a deal with Trump.
Maybe the deal was to have replaced Biden with a robot, Biden does come across as someone losing his faculties at an alarming rate.
Still no intention of voting Tory, though!
Its worth remembering that in 2017 when 38% was recorded in the Locals, the polls were putting the Tories on 45%.
The Tories are like-for-like polling down on 2017 so 36% or 37% would be more realistic.
Labour will lose and I expect most of the ordinary voters casting their votes will not be influenced by yet another lobbying scandal
This is a forum for the politically engaged and at times seems to talk to itself, rather than reflect public opinion
As for Greensill I doubt 1% will understand it although it does revive the traditional Tory sleaze meme. I very much doubt it is going to have a material impact despite some pretty shabby behaviour by Cameron at least.
I am totally against bribery and corruption if there is any but the fact that lobbying is supposed to be regulated means that it is accepted and legal. I presume when such rules were introduced it could have been banned!
There is significant corruption around the world that probably would affect and election - vaccine corruption where politicians, their friends or people they want get vaccinated first.
Just let the inquiry kick off but restrict it's remit.
Johnson may want to embarrass Cameron but has no intention of stopping wealthy chums from picking the public purse. His sole aim is to remain in power, and the purpose is to enjoy the baubles.
Of course they will be whipped
There is an independent enquiry and labour playing politics requires an equal response
Where the combined sleaze factor comes into play electorally is it will amplify the impact when the govt is eventually unpopular.
Their candidate don't seem to have any web presence at all either.
The party must be in dire straits round here...
"Rapid spread of coronavirus variants could necessitate the reimposition of lockdown measures, a scientist advising the Government said.
Professor Peter Openshaw said his fellow scientists were "very concerned" after a cluster of cases of the South African coronavirus variant were found in London."
Telegraph blog.
Once again no doubt talking in a "personal capacity".
I know from my own extended family that these public utterances are just causing undue worry amongst older folk who have been vaccinated.
Stop it.
Another senior Tory says they need to halt the revolving door before it toxifies the party in the eyes of the Red Wall again. The MP: “We have a culture where ministers and officials are working out how they’re going to retire while they’re still in office. It has to stop".
Or are you copying someone else's text without accreditation?
@harrytlambert
: Lab seats vulnerable if it loses Hartlepool
https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1382046522460794883
1980 40% Con
1981 38%
1982 40%
1983 39%
1984 38%
1985 32%
1986 34%
1987 38%
1988 39%
1989 36%
1990 33%
1991 35%
1992 46%
1993 31%
1994 28%
1995 25%
1996 29%
1998 37% Lab
1999 36%
2000 30%
2002 33%
2003 30%
2004 26%
2006 26%
2007 26%
2008 24%
2009 22%
2011 38% Con
2012 33%
2013 26%
2014 30%
2016 32%
2017 39%
2018 37%
2019 31%
From page 64 of report here:
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-7529/
If they're right then the status quo going into the next election ought to be a 110 seat majority, not an 80 seat majority.
I just cannot think of how I would sum this up to someone down the pub as to why it is an issue. I've got friends who can't stand Boris - who nothing he does can be seen without some sort of either conspiracy level intelligence or incompetence. I've got others who are generally supportive. I can't really see what I am supposed to get upset about. It's not a scandal if something is legal but people think the law should be changed.
So barring general election turnout in 1992, the last time a governing party got 40% was back in 1982.
Given Corbyn survived losing 382 Labour county councillors and control of 7 county councils in 2017 Starmer will certainly survive making Labour gains at county level.
Given too Labour only got 27% in the 2017 counties and 31% in the 2016 district elections which were when the local seats up this year were last up, even the 34% Yougov has Labour now on would be an improvement (other pollsters have Labour on 36%).
In fact given the LDs 15% in 2016 and 18% in 2017 and are now polling under 10% they may face the biggest losses, on paper at least, though they tend to do better locally than nationally
Sound of Metal is excellent. The film is proper film making and amongst others from it Riz deserves the Oscar.
Insofar as our discussions have any point, it might be to anticipate how public opinion could change in the future - and thereby affect betting outcomes. Inevitably when considering future hypotheticals there is the danger of wishful thinking, but there are some posters who can tell the difference.
There are also quite a lot of places now where Greys are being culled to keep them down.
Endless talk of variants. Safferbug in Clapham. Supervariant in Brazil. Scary new variant in India (which is surging into a terrifying second wave)
Meanwhile vaccines are suddenly less important... and we must expect new waves and 50,000 deaths. Hmm
Cui bono? I don’t believe the government wants us locked down forever; I do believe there is a group of scientists who are properly scared, and they are spooking the politicians
Although Cameron's name is to the fore there would appear to be the fingerprints of several serving Cabinet Ministers all over this unseemly mess.
But then, Boris will be Boris, and his friends can be a bit lairy too. Besides which the voters love them all anyway, and just want to go to the pub. So why the fuss?.
Last week there were two stories:
(1) Pfizer announced that, based on long term trial data, it's vaccine was 90+% effective against the SA variant. (As in there was a 10- or 20-1 ratio between the number of people in the placebo and the trial group that ended up with a case of SA Covid.) This is, I think you will agree, excellent news.
(2) An Israeli study noted that of the - extremely small number of people in hospital with Covid - more of them had SA variant CV19 than other variants. The study basically said this suggested that vaccine was less effective against the variant. Two words from this report ("break through") were then taken to suggest Pfizer was somehow innefective against SA variant Covid.
The second - panic filled and largely inaccurate - story got all the headlines, while the first was basically ignored.
The irony though - and it’s one I don’t think he ever quite appreciated - is he wanted to clear out the civil service and replace it with people much more like himself. And yet, in his overwhelming arrogance, coupled with a private education and profound ignorance of what he was talking about, he was very like too many of our worst civil servants.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_United_Kingdom_local_elections
In 2017 UKIP got 4% of the vote in the local elections.
In 2016 UKIP got 12% of the vote in the local elections.
The difference being roughly the increase in the Conservative vote from 2016 to 2017.
So there should be scope for the Conservatives to make gains from 2016 but not from 2017.
It would be staggering, maybe even shocking, if the government did not get credit.
When things are not going well, and the economy is stuttering, then stories like this will gain traction. And, I suspect, there's a lot of shit still to come out re Greensill/GFG.
I’m just thinking that given recent comments on your part where you talk about sending all our remaining soldiers and tanks to Scotland to hold it by force, you should be wary of such parallels.
A confident future is guaranteed.
Lobby is far wider in scope than paid lobbying businesses and ex-Ministers moneygrubbing.
For example, the likes of Oxfam have in house lobbyists, and an APPG can be purchased for chump-change if all else has failed.
The scope is wrong. Ironically one group that need to be included are the members of the "Alliance for Lobbying Transparency".
https://commonsbusiness.parliament.uk/document/46725/html#_idTextAnchor004
When he wears his Jekyll hat, he is data driven and really very sensible and worth following.
When he wears his HYde hat, he just lets rip with his fantasies. He's still worth following for the entertainment value.
The HoC numbers are calculated by Rallings and Thrasher are calculated afterwards when all the data is available.
The 1992 local elections took place a month after the general election while the opposition parties were demoralised.
It seems that the only control they want is over what British people do in Britain.
If states or nations have the will to break away from the Union the Federal government equally has to have the will to stop that, constitutions alone would not be enough.
However that does not have to be by force, as I also said the carrot like the devomax Canada gave Quebec could also be used
One of the differences between past or current practitioners and keyboard warriors, I suspect. Knowing to fear the power of trivial events (dear boy).
We cannot afford, mentally or economically, another three month national full lockdown next winter. In the very worse case we should advise the very vulnerable to lockdown and the rest get on with life including schools remaining open.
I fear though we are already being soften up for one.
What worries me more is the drift away from avoiding hospitalisation and death, to a more zero Covid approach. If the vaccines meant no one needed hospital (and ignoring long Covid for the sake of brevity) then I wouldn’t care if we all caught Covid in any given year. And there would be no need for any other measures. Yet I sense some would now to head for elimination by the back door.
Unless you think the Chinese would try and release another one that would evade the vaccines. But I don’t think even Xi would be so stupid as to hope to get away with that twice.
I don’t think it was manufactured in a lab, though. It’s doing exactly what China doesn’t want it to do - killing off the elderly in the west and leaving the younger economic producers untouched. An attempt to extend their power would have been the other way around.
If it had genuinely rampaged through China killing more than 350,000, then I might have wondered if it was a rather drastic attempted solution to their demographic problem. But as it didn’t, and as it seems to have taken them by surprise as well given their confused and incoherent response, I’m thinking it’s unlikely.
You missed the ruction yesterday? Boris telling Sky that he wasn't pursuing a zero COVID strategy? That is, that unlocking would increase cases, hospitalisations and possibly deaths.
The BBC projected share in 2017 local elections was
Con 38
Lab 27
LD 18
So that doesn't leave 25% leftover for UKIP.
Does the campaigning for a general election in itself drive up turnout for the local elections? The first intimation I had that there were elections round here (other than PB, obviously) was when I got my polling card yesterday. Otherwise, everywhere is dead silent. No posters, no TV broadcasts, no leaflets - OK, so no canvassers anyway at the moment, but still, nothing at all is a bit limp.
Yes, I live in a safe Labour ward and therefore am probably assumed to be not worth canvassing. But you can understand when they’re this low key why people don’t bother to or even realise they could/should turn out.
Edit - and I note @Gallowgate hasn’t been contacted by the challengers in his ward either.