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The Scottish leader ratings suggest that LAB might beat the Tories for second place – politicalbetti

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited April 8 in General
imageThe Scottish leader ratings suggest that LAB might beat the Tories for second place – politicalbetting.com

Ever since the SNP came to power in Scotland at the 2011 Holyrood elections I have paid more notice of leader ratings north of the border than voting intention numbers. Then at this stage the voting polls had SLAB in the lead but the then SNP leader Alex Salmond, totally dominated the leader ratings. On that basis I was posting on here saying that the SNP represented good value to win at odds longer than evens.

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    I made this point yesterday.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    DavidL said:

    I think it is very likely that Labour will beat the Tories this time out. As a Unionist I am much more interested in the overall situation between the groupings than how the vote is divided within them. I wish Sarwar every success in regaining votes and hopefully seats in Glasgow.

    Douglas Ross is proving a bit rubbish, I notice SCons have put Ruth Davidson front and centre recently in this campaign.

    A wise move.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455

    DavidL said:

    I think it is very likely that Labour will beat the Tories this time out. As a Unionist I am much more interested in the overall situation between the groupings than how the vote is divided within them. I wish Sarwar every success in regaining votes and hopefully seats in Glasgow.

    Douglas Ross is proving a bit rubbish, I notice SCons have put Ruth Davidson front and centre recently in this campaign.

    A wise move.
    I had a couple of rants about the utter incompetence of the Tory campaign last night. I don't feel any more cheerful about it this morning.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    IanB2 said:

    PB continues to be obsessed with Scotland, while the PM's lies come home to roost in Northern Ireland.

    We'll we're waiting for the Devil's Trifecta.

    Indyref2, a border poll in NI, and I'm working out what the third one in this awful trifecta will be.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,317
    NI: what about removing the border, effectively, on Ireland, removing the sea border (stupidly cutting a country in two) and having checks at the Irish border for the apparently sacred EU single market, funded in large part by the UK?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,174
    Shouldn't Galloway have been included in this :D ?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 9,508

    NI: what about removing the border, effectively, on Ireland, removing the sea border (stupidly cutting a country in two) and having checks at the Irish border for the apparently sacred EU single market, funded in large part by the UK?

    Why would Ireland agree to be removed from the EEA? If NI had voted to leave the EU then perhaps, but they voted against.

    England imposing its will on Ireland against their will. You can't see the problem with this?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 9,999

    IanB2 said:

    PB continues to be obsessed with Scotland, while the PM's lies come home to roost in Northern Ireland.

    We'll we're waiting for the Devil's Trifecta.

    Indyref2, a border poll in NI, and I'm working out what the third one in this awful trifecta will be.
    No 3. ART Davies becomes FM in Wales ensuring demands for Welsh Independence exceed 50% before the end of May.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,432
    IanB2 said:

    PB continues to be obsessed with Scotland, while the PM's lies come home to roost in Northern Ireland.

    Varadkar and Coveney are the root cause of current Belfast theatre. The posh boys saw a sleeping dog and just kept poking it despite saner voices saying leave it.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 12,698
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    I think it is very likely that Labour will beat the Tories this time out. As a Unionist I am much more interested in the overall situation between the groupings than how the vote is divided within them. I wish Sarwar every success in regaining votes and hopefully seats in Glasgow.

    Douglas Ross is proving a bit rubbish, I notice SCons have put Ruth Davidson front and centre recently in this campaign.

    A wise move.
    I had a couple of rants about the utter incompetence of the Tory campaign last night. I don't feel any more cheerful about it this morning.
    I did read the other day that they were thinking of deploying Boris Johnson to Scotland before voting day.

    But only if the spirit of Margaret Thatcher turns them down first.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 31,031
    @RochdalePioneers

    I'd rather not derail this thread on Ireland, which generates more heat than light.

    And I'm certainly not an expert on trade.

    But the vast bulk of trade can be managed through a trusted trader / self-decleration / spot-check system. And you can use intelligence led monitoring to cover the rest.

    The free movement of people is already covered by the CTA.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,738
    edited April 8
    FPT

    Charles said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    eek said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I'm not sure the message on the bus had much to do with it. There were Brexit options that did not require a sea border. Both the EU and UK politicians who refused to back concessionary position prior to Boris being elected, and of course Boris and his cronies doing the thing they said they would never do.
    Why should the EU do anything - this is an internal issue of a third party country.
    Because one of their members has a land border with said third party country and was determined not to have a hard border with it?
    Were the EU a party who signed the Good Friday Agreement?

    More to the point were they the Government who drove a bus through it without any thought of the consequences?
    The first question is irrelevant to the point I made and Ireland's position. And they were a signatory. The second suggests that the UK was to be trapped in the EU forever to meet an agreement which was based on a set of facts at the time it was entered. You want to score political points but surely you can see how absurd and undemocratic such a conclusion would be.

    May's solution was best on this and we need to try and get back there. Once again the loons on both sides who voted that down should hang their heads in shame.
    International treaties once signed continue in perpetuity - unless and until both sides negotiate and agree changes.

    The Good Friday Agreement is an international agreement that we have decided to ignore and challenge.
    We are not ignoring and challenging the GFA.

    We would be quite happy to continue to have the GFA in force and to have no checks between GB and NI.

    It's the EU that is creating the issue.
    As a well-educated sensible chap you know fully well that having declared ourselves a 3rd country that the border has to go somewhere. There seems to be this fantasy that we reach no deal of substance with the EU, have no border with them, and don't get in trouble with WTO rules. You know that it is nonsense. So why are you saying it? You aren't a moron like Brexit Hardman Steve Baker.
    We do seem to have a lot of people here who believe that we and the EU can ignore the issues of being a third party because this is Northern Ireland and the needs of the Good Friday Agreement clearly trumps WTO rules.

    But the EU can't do that because in their eyes the WTO rules (which need to by applied on all borders) are necessarily more important than the Good Friday that technically impacts only 1 part of a third party country (and one where the country has agreed is inside the EU's borders for convenience purposes).

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 9,508

    DavidL said:

    I think it is very likely that Labour will beat the Tories this time out. As a Unionist I am much more interested in the overall situation between the groupings than how the vote is divided within them. I wish Sarwar every success in regaining votes and hopefully seats in Glasgow.

    Douglas Ross is proving a bit rubbish, I notice SCons have put Ruth Davidson front and centre recently in this campaign.

    A wise move.
    I said at the time that Ross attacking Nippie on grounds of honesty and propriety was ludicrous. Now that she has been cleared and is rock solid in place the Tory attack appears even sillier as it fades into the background. That they have been reduced to sticking Baroness Chickenrun on their leaflets just makes it funnier.
  • CiceroCicero Posts: 664
    I think this Holyrood election could be shaping up to be a real stooshie.

    The Tories and the SNP are mirroring each other and its not the greatest of looks for either party, but especially the Tories. Although Salmond is definitely reminding people about the bad stuff in the SNP, I still think the Tories without Ruth that will get a bigger kicking.

    Sarwar and Willie Rennie are having a good campaign. Is it enough to beat the Nats? Not on the current polls, but, anecdotally, something is happening. A cheeky outside bet might be SLAB/SLib Dem and Greens

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 31,031

    IanB2 said:

    PB continues to be obsessed with Scotland, while the PM's lies come home to roost in Northern Ireland.

    We'll we're waiting for the Devil's Trifecta.

    Indyref2, a border poll in NI, and I'm working out what the third one in this awful trifecta will be.
    Trump launching the Confederated States of America?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 22,758

    NI: what about removing the border, effectively, on Ireland, removing the sea border (stupidly cutting a country in two) and having checks at the Irish border for the apparently sacred EU single market, funded in large part by the UK?

    Annex Ireland?

    Sure, why not? It went so well last time...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105
    edited April 8
    I have commented before that Douglas Ross (and RT Davies in Wales) are poor conservative leaders and I do expect Anas Sarwar and Labour to achieve second place

    I was impressed with him in the debate and to be honest I am relaxed if he does gain seats, as each seat gain helps to defeat independence

    I still expect Sturgeon to achieve a majority SNP vote and while I thought Salmond would gain a seat, I am less certain after yesterday's poll showing Alba on 3% and his refusal to condemn Russia for Salisbury
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    edited April 8
    If Labour come second, and if (if!) they, the Tories and the Liberal Democrats can cobble together 65 seats between them, surely things then become easier in terms of voting out the SNP? Ross would undoubtedly be willing to back Sarwar ahead of Sturgeon for FM under those circumstances whereas hell will freeze over before Labour back Ross.

    Not that I think it likely the unionist parties will get much over 50-55 seats, tbh.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 21,966
    TBH I suspect that the only answer to NI is mass migration to the UK from the likes of Co Down.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671
    Sarwar is clearly a significant improvement on Leonard.

    However in most constituency seats Labour is too far behind the SNP to win and with Sturgeon still having an even higher net favourability rating than Sturgeon that is unlikely to change. So the Tories and LDs are still likely to win more Holyrood constituencies than Labour. Currently 7 are held by the Conservatives, 4 by the LDs and only 3 by Labour. Ironically Labour's best chance for a gain may be Edinburgh Central where they are third behind the Conservatives and SNP but in 2016 lots of Conservative voters would have been Remainers in the referendum and may switch to Sarwar and Starmer's party now Corbyn has gone and Davidson is standing down.

    On the list Labour is likely to do better, that is where they could overtake the Conservatives
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 31,031
    edited April 8
    Scott_xP said:
    Convent talks...? Not sure allowing Boris anywhere near nuns is the best idea in the world...
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,317
    Mr. Pioneers, and you don't see a problem with the reverse of that?

    Is Northern Ireland an excuse to keep us locked in the EU, accepting whatever the EU determines with QMV (enacted after Brown reneged upon a promise for a referendum)?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105

    IanB2 said:

    PB continues to be obsessed with Scotland, while the PM's lies come home to roost in Northern Ireland.

    We'll we're waiting for the Devil's Trifecta.

    Indyref2, a border poll in NI, and I'm working out what the third one in this awful trifecta will be.
    No 3. ART Davies becomes FM in Wales ensuring demands for Welsh Independence exceed 50% before the end of May.
    Now then, behave !!!
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,432

    DavidL said:

    I think it is very likely that Labour will beat the Tories this time out. As a Unionist I am much more interested in the overall situation between the groupings than how the vote is divided within them. I wish Sarwar every success in regaining votes and hopefully seats in Glasgow.

    Douglas Ross is proving a bit rubbish, I notice SCons have put Ruth Davidson front and centre recently in this campaign.

    A wise move.
    I said at the time that Ross attacking Nippie on grounds of honesty and propriety was ludicrous. Now that she has been cleared and is rock solid in place the Tory attack appears even sillier as it fades into the background. That they have been reduced to sticking Baroness Chickenrun on their leaflets just makes it funnier.
    He doesnt need to, the vicar of Bath is on the case accusing her of trousering £600k. More mud and some of it will stick.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/snpswindlefinal.png
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671

    IanB2 said:

    PB continues to be obsessed with Scotland, while the PM's lies come home to roost in Northern Ireland.

    We'll we're waiting for the Devil's Trifecta.

    Indyref2, a border poll in NI, and I'm working out what the third one in this awful trifecta will be.
    No 3. ART Davies becomes FM in Wales ensuring demands for Welsh Independence exceed 50% before the end of May.
    If RT Davies becomes FM it will be because he is the most successful Welsh Tory leader ever and a humiliating result for Labour and Plaid, Wales voted for Brexit and it would cement Wales in Union with England even further.

    It would also almost certainly require the Tories to be over 40% in Wales
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671
    ydoethur said:

    If Labour come second, and if (if!) they, the Tories and the Liberal Democrats can cobble together 65 seats between them, surely things then become easier in terms of voting out the SNP? Ross would undoubtedly be willing to back Sarwar ahead of Sturgeon for FM under those circumstances whereas hell will freeze over before Labour back Ross.

    Not that I think it likely the unionist parties will get much over 50-55 seats, tbh.

    The Tories just want to block indyref2, they are happy for a neutered Sturgeon to continue as FM otherwise
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 9,999
    Scott_xP said:
    Is Louise Haigh mad? The last thing anyone needs is for a casual Johnson comment to fan the flames.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 9,508
    Charles said:

    @RochdalePioneers

    I'd rather not derail this thread on Ireland, which generates more heat than light.

    And I'm certainly not an expert on trade.

    But the vast bulk of trade can be managed through a trusted trader / self-decleration / spot-check system. And you can use intelligence led monitoring to cover the rest.

    The free movement of people is already covered by the CTA.

    And yet such an easy solution eludes us - because it isn't based in reality. The bulk of Irish trade is food. We need to completely align our SPS standards with the EU and do a deal to remove the checks. Our standards ARE completely aligned, but apparently we can't agree a deal because at some point in the future the EU may increase their standards just to spite us.

    Even outside of food, there are naysayers on this forum including your good self decrying the idea of agreed alignment which is the basis for trusted trader / self-declaration systems.

    There is plenty of relevance to Scotland though - England thinking that it can drag savage appendages like NI and Scotland around to do something stupid against their will. The big push towards another independence vote up here is largely thanks to Brexit (and the Boris corrupt organisation), and they are literally rioting in NI.

    "Respect democracy" doesn't work when its imposed destruction.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 1,997
    Scott_xP said:
    I think Johnson was right. Letting the Northern Irish tail wag the British dog again would have been ridiculous, and probably led to serious riots in England.

    My preferred solution is still for us to get rid of Northern Ireland, which has been an embarassing and expensive curse for centuries.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    Foxy said:

    NI: what about removing the border, effectively, on Ireland, removing the sea border (stupidly cutting a country in two) and having checks at the Irish border for the apparently sacred EU single market, funded in large part by the UK?

    Annex Ireland?

    Sure, why not? It went so well last time...
    Someone get on the blower to Pope Francis and ask him to issue a Papal Decree/Bull.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671

    IanB2 said:

    PB continues to be obsessed with Scotland, while the PM's lies come home to roost in Northern Ireland.

    We'll we're waiting for the Devil's Trifecta.

    Indyref2, a border poll in NI, and I'm working out what the third one in this awful trifecta will be.
    Boris will not allow a legal indyref2, Unionist parties still win more votes than Nationalists in NI so there will not be a border poll either.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105
    Cicero said:

    I think this Holyrood election could be shaping up to be a real stooshie.

    The Tories and the SNP are mirroring each other and its not the greatest of looks for either party, but especially the Tories. Although Salmond is definitely reminding people about the bad stuff in the SNP, I still think the Tories without Ruth that will get a bigger kicking.

    Sarwar and Willie Rennie are having a good campaign. Is it enough to beat the Nats? Not on the current polls, but, anecdotally, something is happening. A cheeky outside bet might be SLAB/SLib Dem and Greens

    You do know the Greens are pro independence so it will either be a SNP majority or a SNP/Greens coalition

    I just cannot see any further than that, unless something extraordinary happens
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,607
    Just a thought but if the Labour are increasing in Scotland howuch worse does that make their UK wide polling figure look ahead of all the other elections.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671
    Scott_xP said:
    The violence is mainly coming for the Loyalist side.

    They have seen that IRA violence got the Nationalists what they wanted ie an open border in Ireland and a border in the Irish Sea, so the old loyalist paramilitaries are reviving and will likely continue with violence unfortunately until the border in the Irish Sea with GB is removed.

  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,432
    edited April 8
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    PB continues to be obsessed with Scotland, while the PM's lies come home to roost in Northern Ireland.

    Varadkar and Coveney are the root cause of current Belfast theatre. The posh boys saw a sleeping dog and just kept poking it despite saner voices saying leave it.
    No, it is Johnsons deal. We signed up to it, we need to keep our word.

    I am surprised that so many PB Tories want to give in to rioters, when even a sit down protest in Bristol gets their goat.
    As an englishman your prime concern for NI is how it impacts your anti Boris shtick. Fair does. But as an Irishman I can assure the Varadkar Coveney stupidities are what is driving the current street theatre, which is why both of them now need 24/7 armed protection. Nobody so far is threatening to shoot BoJo.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    PB continues to be obsessed with Scotland, while the PM's lies come home to roost in Northern Ireland.

    We'll we're waiting for the Devil's Trifecta.

    Indyref2, a border poll in NI, and I'm working out what the third one in this awful trifecta will be.
    Trump launching the Confederated States of America?
    I did see a map the other day and the rumour location of America's nukes.

    A CSA would be the world's second largest holder of nuclear weapons, behind Russia and ahead of the rump USA.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 31,031
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    PB continues to be obsessed with Scotland, while the PM's lies come home to roost in Northern Ireland.

    Varadkar and Coveney are the root cause of current Belfast theatre. The posh boys saw a sleeping dog and just kept poking it despite saner voices saying leave it.
    No, it is Johnsons deal. We signed up to it, we need to keep our word.

    I am surprised that so many PB Tories want to give in to rioters, when even a sit down protest in Bristol gets their goat.
    The current structure is unworkable. It's only the deal because Vardkar and Coveney refused to look at alternatives.

    @Alanbrooke and I both know something about Irish politics (him more than me to be fair!)
  • FossFoss Posts: 282
    'Dump Northern Ireland' would likely be a vote winner in large parts of England. Starmer should try it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    PB continues to be obsessed with Scotland, while the PM's lies come home to roost in Northern Ireland.

    Varadkar and Coveney are the root cause of current Belfast theatre. The posh boys saw a sleeping dog and just kept poking it despite saner voices saying leave it.
    No, it is Johnsons deal. We signed up to it, we need to keep our word.

    I am surprised that so many PB Tories want to give in to rioters, when even a sit down protest in Bristol gets their goat.
    As and englishman your prime concern for NI is how it impacts your anti Boris shtick. Fair does. But as an Irishman I can assure the Varadkar Coveney stupidities are what is driving the current street theatre, which is why both of them now need 24/7 armed protection. Nobody so far is threatening to shoot BoJo.
    Boris Johnson has armed bodyguards for that very reason.

    IIRC the only cabinet ministers who received armed bodyguards/protection is the Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary, Defence Secretary, and the NI Secretary.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 31,031

    Charles said:

    @RochdalePioneers

    I'd rather not derail this thread on Ireland, which generates more heat than light.

    And I'm certainly not an expert on trade.

    But the vast bulk of trade can be managed through a trusted trader / self-decleration / spot-check system. And you can use intelligence led monitoring to cover the rest.

    The free movement of people is already covered by the CTA.

    And yet such an easy solution eludes us - because it isn't based in reality. The bulk of Irish trade is food. We need to completely align our SPS standards with the EU and do a deal to remove the checks. Our standards ARE completely aligned, but apparently we can't agree a deal because at some point in the future the EU may increase their standards just to spite us.

    Even outside of food, there are naysayers on this forum including your good self decrying the idea of agreed alignment which is the basis for trusted trader / self-declaration systems.

    There is plenty of relevance to Scotland though - England thinking that it can drag savage appendages like NI and Scotland around to do something stupid against their will. The big push towards another independence vote up here is largely thanks to Brexit (and the Boris corrupt organisation), and they are literally rioting in NI.

    "Respect democracy" doesn't work when its imposed destruction.
    Why doesn't self-decleration work for food standards as well?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671

    Charles said:

    IanB2 said:

    PB continues to be obsessed with Scotland, while the PM's lies come home to roost in Northern Ireland.

    We'll we're waiting for the Devil's Trifecta.

    Indyref2, a border poll in NI, and I'm working out what the third one in this awful trifecta will be.
    Trump launching the Confederated States of America?
    I did see a map the other day and the rumour location of America's nukes.

    A CSA would be the world's second largest holder of nuclear weapons, behind Russia and ahead of the rump USA.
    The rump USA would be politically closer to Canada than the CSA too
  • kjhkjh Posts: 3,008
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    PB continues to be obsessed with Scotland, while the PM's lies come home to roost in Northern Ireland.

    Varadkar and Coveney are the root cause of current Belfast theatre. The posh boys saw a sleeping dog and just kept poking it despite saner voices saying leave it.
    No, it is Johnsons deal. We signed up to it, we need to keep our word.

    I am surprised that so many PB Tories want to give in to rioters, when even a sit down protest in Bristol gets their goat.
    The current structure is unworkable. It's only the deal because Vardkar and Coveney refused to look at alternatives.

    @Alanbrooke and I both know something about Irish politics (him more than me to be fair!)
    What alternatives? This was always an unsolvable problem of Brexit.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671
    edited April 8
    felix said:

    Just a thought but if the Labour are increasing in Scotland howuch worse does that make their UK wide polling figure look ahead of all the other elections.

    They aren't really, Sarwar is popular but Labour are still on only about 20% in Scotland, still below their UK average of about 34% and far below their London rating of almost 50%
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 22,758
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    PB continues to be obsessed with Scotland, while the PM's lies come home to roost in Northern Ireland.

    Varadkar and Coveney are the root cause of current Belfast theatre. The posh boys saw a sleeping dog and just kept poking it despite saner voices saying leave it.
    No, it is Johnsons deal. We signed up to it, we need to keep our word.

    I am surprised that so many PB Tories want to give in to rioters, when even a sit down protest in Bristol gets their goat.
    The current structure is unworkable. It's only the deal because Vardkar and Coveney refused to look at alternatives.

    @Alanbrooke and I both know something about Irish politics (him more than me to be fair!)
    Yes, the Brexit deal is unworkable.

    If only someone had noticed...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    edited April 8
    felix said:

    Just a thought but if the Labour are increasing in Scotland howuch worse does that make their UK wide polling figure look ahead of all the other elections.

    Not much, if the polling is accurate.

    Remember the collapse in Scotland when they tumbled from 42% of the vote to 24% in 2015 only impacted the GB share of the vote by the less than 1%.

    So even if they poll 30% in Scotland then it won't make much difference to the headline GB share of the vote.

    In fact Labour are polling in the mid 30s GB wide, and mid 20s in Scotland, you can argue they are doing better in the rest of GB than Scotland.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,729

    Charles said:

    @RochdalePioneers

    I'd rather not derail this thread on Ireland, which generates more heat than light.

    And I'm certainly not an expert on trade.

    But the vast bulk of trade can be managed through a trusted trader / self-decleration / spot-check system. And you can use intelligence led monitoring to cover the rest.

    The free movement of people is already covered by the CTA.

    And yet such an easy solution eludes us - because it isn't based in reality. The bulk of Irish trade is food. We need to completely align our SPS standards with the EU and do a deal to remove the checks. Our standards ARE completely aligned, but apparently we can't agree a deal because at some point in the future the EU may increase their standards just to spite us.

    Even outside of food, there are naysayers on this forum including your good self decrying the idea of agreed alignment which is the basis for trusted trader / self-declaration systems.

    There is plenty of relevance to Scotland though - England thinking that it can drag savage appendages like NI and Scotland around to do something stupid against their will. The big push towards another independence vote up here is largely thanks to Brexit (and the Boris corrupt organisation), and they are literally rioting in NI.

    "Respect democracy" doesn't work when its imposed destruction.
    We don't "need" to align our SPS with the EU.

    It would be entirely possible to diverge with the EU but to recognise each others's SPS as "equivalent" and remove the need for checks etc
    .
    That may affect the "integrity" of the Single Market but so be it, we would be making the same compromise in return. That is a genuine compromise, not chaining one party to another like a slave.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,174
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    PB continues to be obsessed with Scotland, while the PM's lies come home to roost in Northern Ireland.

    Varadkar and Coveney are the root cause of current Belfast theatre. The posh boys saw a sleeping dog and just kept poking it despite saner voices saying leave it.
    No, it is Johnsons deal. We signed up to it, we need to keep our word.

    I am surprised that so many PB Tories want to give in to rioters, when even a sit down protest in Bristol gets their goat.
    The loyalist thugs on the Shankhill Road are making a calculation that violence might well get them what they want (Rid of the Irish sea border). It might not be wrong in the long term, it wasn't for the IRA.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 9,999
    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    PB continues to be obsessed with Scotland, while the PM's lies come home to roost in Northern Ireland.

    We'll we're waiting for the Devil's Trifecta.

    Indyref2, a border poll in NI, and I'm working out what the third one in this awful trifecta will be.
    No 3. ART Davies becomes FM in Wales ensuring demands for Welsh Independence exceed 50% before the end of May.
    If RT Davies becomes FM it will be because he is the most successful Welsh Tory leader ever and a humiliating result for Labour and Plaid, Wales voted for Brexit and it would cement Wales in Union with England even further.

    It would also almost certainly require the Tories to be over 40% in Wales
    That would indeed be true to just before the point where you write "cement Wales in Union with England even further". Do you think that blithering clown would do anything other than make the Conservatives unelectable in Wales for the remainder of the Millenium? And if Llafur are dead in the water, where does that lead us? PC!
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 15,856
    Cicero said:

    I think this Holyrood election could be shaping up to be a real stooshie.

    The Tories and the SNP are mirroring each other and its not the greatest of looks for either party, but especially the Tories. Although Salmond is definitely reminding people about the bad stuff in the SNP, I still think the Tories without Ruth that will get a bigger kicking.

    Sarwar and Willie Rennie are having a good campaign. Is it enough to beat the Nats? Not on the current polls, but, anecdotally, something is happening. A cheeky outside bet might be SLAB/SLib Dem and Greens

    We're well into wild speculation here, but what is the dominant feeling in Scottish Greens? Are they mostly about independence with an environmental/leftist side-dish, or the other way round? If they actually did have a choice between SNP and a Lab/Lib partnership, what would they do?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    IanB2 said:

    PB continues to be obsessed with Scotland, while the PM's lies come home to roost in Northern Ireland.

    We'll we're waiting for the Devil's Trifecta.

    Indyref2, a border poll in NI, and I'm working out what the third one in this awful trifecta will be.
    No 3. ART Davies becomes FM in Wales ensuring demands for Welsh Independence exceed 50% before the end of May.
    Welsh independence referendum under those circumstances.

    *Any given unionist points at RT* You want that man to have unlimited power?

    Support for independence drops to -5% and stays there for 50 years.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 9,508

    I have commented before that Douglas Ross (and RT Davies in Wales) are poor conservative leaders and I do expect Anas Sarwar and Labour to achieve second place

    I was impressed with him in the debate and to be honest I am relaxed if he does gain seats, as each seat gain helps to defeat independence

    I still expect Sturgeon to achieve a majority SNP vote and while I thought Salmond would gain a seat, I am less certain after yesterday's poll showing Alba on 3% and his refusal to condemn Russia for Salisbury

    I expect Salmond to win his seat. 3% nationally will translate to enough in the NE region where he is top of the Alba list.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671
    Fishing said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I think Johnson was right. Letting the Northern Irish tail wag the British dog again would have been ridiculous, and probably led to serious riots in England.

    My preferred solution is still for us to get rid of Northern Ireland, which has been an embarassing and expensive curse for centuries.
    Certainly not from the Conservative and Unionist Party, the latter part of which came from opposition even to Irish Home Rule
  • eekeek Posts: 11,738

    Charles said:

    @RochdalePioneers

    I'd rather not derail this thread on Ireland, which generates more heat than light.

    And I'm certainly not an expert on trade.

    But the vast bulk of trade can be managed through a trusted trader / self-decleration / spot-check system. And you can use intelligence led monitoring to cover the rest.

    The free movement of people is already covered by the CTA.

    And yet such an easy solution eludes us - because it isn't based in reality. The bulk of Irish trade is food. We need to completely align our SPS standards with the EU and do a deal to remove the checks. Our standards ARE completely aligned, but apparently we can't agree a deal because at some point in the future the EU may increase their standards just to spite us.

    Even outside of food, there are naysayers on this forum including your good self decrying the idea of agreed alignment which is the basis for trusted trader / self-declaration systems.

    There is plenty of relevance to Scotland though - England thinking that it can drag savage appendages like NI and Scotland around to do something stupid against their will. The big push towards another independence vote up here is largely thanks to Brexit (and the Boris corrupt organisation), and they are literally rioting in NI.

    "Respect democracy" doesn't work when its imposed destruction.
    We don't "need" to align our SPS with the EU.

    It would be entirely possible to diverge with the EU but to recognise each others's SPS as "equivalent" and remove the need for checks etc
    .
    That may affect the "integrity" of the Single Market but so be it, we would be making the same compromise in return. That is a genuine compromise, not chaining one party to another like a slave.
    We need to agree to the things the EU require - as strangely enough the EU hold all the cards and have the ability to say No No No...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671
    edited April 8

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    PB continues to be obsessed with Scotland, while the PM's lies come home to roost in Northern Ireland.

    We'll we're waiting for the Devil's Trifecta.

    Indyref2, a border poll in NI, and I'm working out what the third one in this awful trifecta will be.
    No 3. ART Davies becomes FM in Wales ensuring demands for Welsh Independence exceed 50% before the end of May.
    If RT Davies becomes FM it will be because he is the most successful Welsh Tory leader ever and a humiliating result for Labour and Plaid, Wales voted for Brexit and it would cement Wales in Union with England even further.

    It would also almost certainly require the Tories to be over 40% in Wales
    That would indeed be true to just before the point where you write "cement Wales in Union with England even further". Do you think that blithering clown would do anything other than make the Conservatives unelectable in Wales for the remainder of the Millenium? And if Llafur are dead in the water, where does that lead us? PC!
    If the Tories are over 40% (which they would need to be to form a deal with Abolish which is the only way RT becomes FM), then RT would likely scrap the Senedd anyway with Abolish and Wales would return to full union with England. RT would clearly not be unelectable in Wales, the opposite, he would be the most successful Tory leader in Wales ever if he got over 40%.

    RT would get rewarded with a safe seat at Westminster then after
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    edited April 8
    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I think Johnson was right. Letting the Northern Irish tail wag the British dog again would have been ridiculous, and probably led to serious riots in England.

    My preferred solution is still for us to get rid of Northern Ireland, which has been an embarassing and expensive curse for centuries.
    Certainly not from the Conservative and Unionist Party, the latter part of which came from opposition even to Irish Home Rule
    That was the old Conservative Party, Boris Johnson's new Tory party, of which you are an enthusiastic cheerleader, is prepared to sacrifice the Union for Brexit.

    [Conservative} Party members are also willing to sacrifice another fundamental tenet of Conservative belief in order to bring about Brexit: unionism.* Asked whether they would rather avert Brexit if it would lead to Scotland or Northern Ireland breaking away from the UK, respectively 63% and 59% of party members would be willing to pay for Brexit with the breakup of the United Kingdom.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/18/most-conservative-members-would-see-party-destroye
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,432

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    PB continues to be obsessed with Scotland, while the PM's lies come home to roost in Northern Ireland.

    Varadkar and Coveney are the root cause of current Belfast theatre. The posh boys saw a sleeping dog and just kept poking it despite saner voices saying leave it.
    No, it is Johnsons deal. We signed up to it, we need to keep our word.

    I am surprised that so many PB Tories want to give in to rioters, when even a sit down protest in Bristol gets their goat.
    As and englishman your prime concern for NI is how it impacts your anti Boris shtick. Fair does. But as an Irishman I can assure the Varadkar Coveney stupidities are what is driving the current street theatre, which is why both of them now need 24/7 armed protection. Nobody so far is threatening to shoot BoJo.
    Boris Johnson has armed bodyguards for that very reason.

    IIRC the only cabinet ministers who received armed bodyguards/protection is the Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary, Defence Secretary, and the NI Secretary.
    He's a PM and always has protection, but I m not aware of any NI paramilitaries recently issuing a death threat. Varadkar and Coveny

    https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2021/03/22/news/leo-varadkar-being-guarded-round-the-clock-following-death-threats-2262594/

    Coveney is now worried things might get out of hand. A bit late Im afraid .

    https://news.yahoo.com/northern-ireland-riots-must-stop-074522319.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMJQGFuwzN5oiRRE7ujZqGmEECk7nWgqjF4E77nROKQFH33EIBT3n8lQ7SUKk7CEcORaf0tVSXnuOPrLy2FEQU_k6cTNfxrvQYVS_P7Jf8fwXN6WNwT0E0ENqCjDoa9ZSRohkKh9SsF2B9ohzIXMXV_FXMq_uo7t19a6XV4W8GO2

    His warning someone might get killed, has a worried personal ring to it.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 1,246
    Foxy said:

    NI: what about removing the border, effectively, on Ireland, removing the sea border (stupidly cutting a country in two) and having checks at the Irish border for the apparently sacred EU single market, funded in large part by the UK?

    Annex Ireland?

    Sure, why not? It went so well last time...
    Maybe the UK should instead apply to join the Republic? Everyone happy: Irish nationalists get a united Ireland (plus more!), Northern Ireland gets to remain in the UK (a meaningless, but notional province of Greater Ireland). Remainers get re-entry to the EU via the backdoor. Brexiteers... er, well, nevermind, they're never happy :wink:
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 22,758

    I have commented before that Douglas Ross (and RT Davies in Wales) are poor conservative leaders and I do expect Anas Sarwar and Labour to achieve second place

    I was impressed with him in the debate and to be honest I am relaxed if he does gain seats, as each seat gain helps to defeat independence

    I still expect Sturgeon to achieve a majority SNP vote and while I thought Salmond would gain a seat, I am less certain after yesterday's poll showing Alba on 3% and his refusal to condemn Russia for Salisbury

    I expect Salmond to win his seat. 3% nationally will translate to enough in the NE region where he is top of the Alba list.
    He is going to be Billy No-Mates though! SNP majority looks pretty nailed on by the polling, and the trend is in that direction.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 9,508
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    @RochdalePioneers

    I'd rather not derail this thread on Ireland, which generates more heat than light.

    And I'm certainly not an expert on trade.

    But the vast bulk of trade can be managed through a trusted trader / self-decleration / spot-check system. And you can use intelligence led monitoring to cover the rest.

    The free movement of people is already covered by the CTA.

    And yet such an easy solution eludes us - because it isn't based in reality. The bulk of Irish trade is food. We need to completely align our SPS standards with the EU and do a deal to remove the checks. Our standards ARE completely aligned, but apparently we can't agree a deal because at some point in the future the EU may increase their standards just to spite us.

    Even outside of food, there are naysayers on this forum including your good self decrying the idea of agreed alignment which is the basis for trusted trader / self-declaration systems.

    There is plenty of relevance to Scotland though - England thinking that it can drag savage appendages like NI and Scotland around to do something stupid against their will. The big push towards another independence vote up here is largely thanks to Brexit (and the Boris corrupt organisation), and they are literally rioting in NI.

    "Respect democracy" doesn't work when its imposed destruction.
    Why doesn't self-decleration work for food standards as well?

    As self-declaration doesn't work for non-food why would it work for food?

    To have such an agreement you have to have an agreement on standards which you are declaring compliance with. Otherwise self-declaration is "I declare that my goods are non-compliant with your standards".

    The problem is that despite our current and declared future alignment with EU standards, we won't agree to anything. Us. Not them.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 9,999
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    PB continues to be obsessed with Scotland, while the PM's lies come home to roost in Northern Ireland.

    We'll we're waiting for the Devil's Trifecta.

    Indyref2, a border poll in NI, and I'm working out what the third one in this awful trifecta will be.
    No 3. ART Davies becomes FM in Wales ensuring demands for Welsh Independence exceed 50% before the end of May.
    If RT Davies becomes FM it will be because he is the most successful Welsh Tory leader ever and a humiliating result for Labour and Plaid, Wales voted for Brexit and it would cement Wales in Union with England even further.

    It would also almost certainly require the Tories to be over 40% in Wales
    That would indeed be true to just before the point where you write "cement Wales in Union with England even further". Do you think that blithering clown would do anything other than make the Conservatives unelectable in Wales for the remainder of the Millenium? And if Llafur are dead in the water, where does that lead us? PC!
    If the Tories are over 40% (which they would need to be to form a deal with Abolish which is the only way RT becomes FM), then RT would likely scrap the Senedd anyway with Abolish and Wales would return to full union with England. RT would clearly not be unelectable in Wales, the opposite, he would be the most successful Tory leader in Wales ever if he got over 40%.

    RT would get rewarded with a safe seat at Westminster then after
    ...and as such my anticipation of a surge in Welsh independence post FM RT, is reality.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671
    edited April 8
    Foss said:

    'Dump Northern Ireland' would likely be a vote winner in large parts of England. Starmer should try it.

    Starmer would align the whole UK back closer to the single market and customs union, making the border in the Irish Sea largely redundant anyway so it would no longer be an issue
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,729
    eek said:

    Charles said:

    @RochdalePioneers

    I'd rather not derail this thread on Ireland, which generates more heat than light.

    And I'm certainly not an expert on trade.

    But the vast bulk of trade can be managed through a trusted trader / self-decleration / spot-check system. And you can use intelligence led monitoring to cover the rest.

    The free movement of people is already covered by the CTA.

    And yet such an easy solution eludes us - because it isn't based in reality. The bulk of Irish trade is food. We need to completely align our SPS standards with the EU and do a deal to remove the checks. Our standards ARE completely aligned, but apparently we can't agree a deal because at some point in the future the EU may increase their standards just to spite us.

    Even outside of food, there are naysayers on this forum including your good self decrying the idea of agreed alignment which is the basis for trusted trader / self-declaration systems.

    There is plenty of relevance to Scotland though - England thinking that it can drag savage appendages like NI and Scotland around to do something stupid against their will. The big push towards another independence vote up here is largely thanks to Brexit (and the Boris corrupt organisation), and they are literally rioting in NI.

    "Respect democracy" doesn't work when its imposed destruction.
    We don't "need" to align our SPS with the EU.

    It would be entirely possible to diverge with the EU but to recognise each others's SPS as "equivalent" and remove the need for checks etc
    .
    That may affect the "integrity" of the Single Market but so be it, we would be making the same compromise in return. That is a genuine compromise, not chaining one party to another like a slave.
    We need to agree to the things the EU require - as strangely enough the EU hold all the cards and have the ability to say No No No...
    We absolutely do not and they don't hold the cards.

    We should just invoke Article 16, abolish all Irish Sea checks and leave it at that if the EU don't compromise. Article 16 applies so we would not be breaking international law. The EU wouldn't be getting what they want and the only way for them then to get "integrity" is either to reach a satisfactory compromise, or erect the border themselves, which is what the choice should have always been had May not been so weak and Boris not inherited May's mess.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 9,508

    Charles said:

    @RochdalePioneers

    I'd rather not derail this thread on Ireland, which generates more heat than light.

    And I'm certainly not an expert on trade.

    But the vast bulk of trade can be managed through a trusted trader / self-decleration / spot-check system. And you can use intelligence led monitoring to cover the rest.

    The free movement of people is already covered by the CTA.

    And yet such an easy solution eludes us - because it isn't based in reality. The bulk of Irish trade is food. We need to completely align our SPS standards with the EU and do a deal to remove the checks. Our standards ARE completely aligned, but apparently we can't agree a deal because at some point in the future the EU may increase their standards just to spite us.

    Even outside of food, there are naysayers on this forum including your good self decrying the idea of agreed alignment which is the basis for trusted trader / self-declaration systems.

    There is plenty of relevance to Scotland though - England thinking that it can drag savage appendages like NI and Scotland around to do something stupid against their will. The big push towards another independence vote up here is largely thanks to Brexit (and the Boris corrupt organisation), and they are literally rioting in NI.

    "Respect democracy" doesn't work when its imposed destruction.
    We don't "need" to align our SPS with the EU.

    It would be entirely possible to diverge with the EU but to recognise each others's SPS as "equivalent" and remove the need for checks etc
    .
    That may affect the "integrity" of the Single Market but so be it, we would be making the same compromise in return. That is a genuine compromise, not chaining one party to another like a slave.
    Mate, you keep dancing on this same pinhead. If our standards are "equivalent" then it means they are close enough to the required standard. Which they are now. And will be in the future as we declare that standards will only ever be increased. So we could do this as you suggest, but it is declaring that our standards will different *but directly comparable* to EU ones. Which you won't accept.

    We can't wildly diverge our standards and recognise an equivalence which isn't there.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,560
    HYUFD said:

    Foss said:

    'Dump Northern Ireland' would likely be a vote winner in large parts of England. Starmer should try it.

    Starmer would align the whole UK back closer to the single market and customs union, making the border in the Irish Sea largely redundant anyway so it would no longer be an issue
    What a great vote winner.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,738

    eek said:

    Charles said:

    @RochdalePioneers

    I'd rather not derail this thread on Ireland, which generates more heat than light.

    And I'm certainly not an expert on trade.

    But the vast bulk of trade can be managed through a trusted trader / self-decleration / spot-check system. And you can use intelligence led monitoring to cover the rest.

    The free movement of people is already covered by the CTA.

    And yet such an easy solution eludes us - because it isn't based in reality. The bulk of Irish trade is food. We need to completely align our SPS standards with the EU and do a deal to remove the checks. Our standards ARE completely aligned, but apparently we can't agree a deal because at some point in the future the EU may increase their standards just to spite us.

    Even outside of food, there are naysayers on this forum including your good self decrying the idea of agreed alignment which is the basis for trusted trader / self-declaration systems.

    There is plenty of relevance to Scotland though - England thinking that it can drag savage appendages like NI and Scotland around to do something stupid against their will. The big push towards another independence vote up here is largely thanks to Brexit (and the Boris corrupt organisation), and they are literally rioting in NI.

    "Respect democracy" doesn't work when its imposed destruction.
    We don't "need" to align our SPS with the EU.

    It would be entirely possible to diverge with the EU but to recognise each others's SPS as "equivalent" and remove the need for checks etc
    .
    That may affect the "integrity" of the Single Market but so be it, we would be making the same compromise in return. That is a genuine compromise, not chaining one party to another like a slave.
    We need to agree to the things the EU require - as strangely enough the EU hold all the cards and have the ability to say No No No...
    We absolutely do not and they don't hold the cards.

    We should just invoke Article 16, abolish all Irish Sea checks and leave it at that if the EU don't compromise. Article 16 applies so we would not be breaking international law. The EU wouldn't be getting what they want and the only way for them then to get "integrity" is either to reach a satisfactory compromise, or erect the border themselves, which is what the choice should have always been had May not been so weak and Boris not inherited May's mess.
    Do you have a clue what Article 16 actually is?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    edited April 8

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    PB continues to be obsessed with Scotland, while the PM's lies come home to roost in Northern Ireland.

    Varadkar and Coveney are the root cause of current Belfast theatre. The posh boys saw a sleeping dog and just kept poking it despite saner voices saying leave it.
    No, it is Johnsons deal. We signed up to it, we need to keep our word.

    I am surprised that so many PB Tories want to give in to rioters, when even a sit down protest in Bristol gets their goat.
    As and englishman your prime concern for NI is how it impacts your anti Boris shtick. Fair does. But as an Irishman I can assure the Varadkar Coveney stupidities are what is driving the current street theatre, which is why both of them now need 24/7 armed protection. Nobody so far is threatening to shoot BoJo.
    Boris Johnson has armed bodyguards for that very reason.

    IIRC the only cabinet ministers who received armed bodyguards/protection is the Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary, Defence Secretary, and the NI Secretary.
    He's a PM and always has protection, but I m not aware of any NI paramilitaries recently issuing a death threat. Varadkar and Coveny

    https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2021/03/22/news/leo-varadkar-being-guarded-round-the-clock-following-death-threats-2262594/

    Coveney is now worried things might get out of hand. A bit late Im afraid .

    https://news.yahoo.com/northern-ireland-riots-must-stop-074522319.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMJQGFuwzN5oiRRE7ujZqGmEECk7nWgqjF4E77nROKQFH33EIBT3n8lQ7SUKk7CEcORaf0tVSXnuOPrLy2FEQU_k6cTNfxrvQYVS_P7Jf8fwXN6WNwT0E0ENqCjDoa9ZSRohkKh9SsF2B9ohzIXMXV_FXMq_uo7t19a6XV4W8GO2

    His warning someone might get killed, has a worried personal ring to it.
    Want to know something funny somebody in the army told me a few years ago.

    Since the mid 80s (ever since the Anglo-Irish Agreement) the Taoiseach's Gardaí security detail has been supplemented by ex British military personnel. There was only ever one caveat, no ex parachute regiment.

    But nobody likes to talk about it, but it is one of the reasons why British troops parading in Dublin for Ian Malone's funeral in 2003 went so unremarked and without incident.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 6,440
    Fishing said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I think Johnson was right. Letting the Northern Irish tail wag the British dog again would have been ridiculous, and probably led to serious riots in England.

    My preferred solution is still for us to get rid of Northern Ireland, which has been an embarassing and expensive curse for centuries.
    Serious riots in England? Who would have been the rioters? Little Englanders in their Bath Chairs? Cheered on by keyboard warriors? Nigel Farage standing on the barricades? Don't be ridiculous.

    Northern Ireland is a complex issue and cannot be written off with simplistic platitudes. Interesting how people who have banged on about how democracy should not be ignored on their one-off marginal "victory" on Brexit can be so slap dash about people in NI because they don't like their accents.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,432
    edited April 8
    Foxy said:

    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    PB continues to be obsessed with Scotland, while the PM's lies come home to roost in Northern Ireland.

    Varadkar and Coveney are the root cause of current Belfast theatre. The posh boys saw a sleeping dog and just kept poking it despite saner voices saying leave it.
    No, it is Johnsons deal. We signed up to it, we need to keep our word.

    I am surprised that so many PB Tories want to give in to rioters, when even a sit down protest in Bristol gets their goat.
    The current structure is unworkable. It's only the deal because Vardkar and Coveney refused to look at alternatives.

    @Alanbrooke and I both know something about Irish politics (him more than me to be fair!)
    Yes, the Brexit deal is unworkable.

    If only someone had noticed...
    The NI side of it as many pointed out at the time is workable witrh a bit of common sense on both sides. However since NI was weaponised in the negotiations common sense got thrown out the window. The EU has now walked off to fry bigger fish and RoI is now stuck with the problem.

    The Irish position in the negotiations has been a foreign policy failure. The hardline approavh didnt stop Brexit and only sets Ireland up as a patsy in the next round of haggling.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,105
    edited April 8
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    PB continues to be obsessed with Scotland, while the PM's lies come home to roost in Northern Ireland.

    We'll we're waiting for the Devil's Trifecta.

    Indyref2, a border poll in NI, and I'm working out what the third one in this awful trifecta will be.
    No 3. ART Davies becomes FM in Wales ensuring demands for Welsh Independence exceed 50% before the end of May.
    If RT Davies becomes FM it will be because he is the most successful Welsh Tory leader ever and a humiliating result for Labour and Plaid, Wales voted for Brexit and it would cement Wales in Union with England even further.

    It would also almost certainly require the Tories to be over 40% in Wales
    That would indeed be true to just before the point where you write "cement Wales in Union with England even further". Do you think that blithering clown would do anything other than make the Conservatives unelectable in Wales for the remainder of the Millenium? And if Llafur are dead in the water, where does that lead us? PC!
    If the Tories are over 40% (which they would need to be to form a deal with Abolish which is the only way RT becomes FM), then RT would likely scrap the Senedd anyway with Abolish and Wales would return to full union with England. RT would clearly not be unelectable in Wales, the opposite, he would be the most successful Tory leader in Wales ever if he got over 40%.

    RT would get rewarded with a safe seat at Westminster then after
    You are talking utter rubbish again

    Any attempt to scap the Senedd will see the end of the conservatives in Wales

    Also show me where any conservative candidate has affirmed their desire to end devolution
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,729

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    @RochdalePioneers

    I'd rather not derail this thread on Ireland, which generates more heat than light.

    And I'm certainly not an expert on trade.

    But the vast bulk of trade can be managed through a trusted trader / self-decleration / spot-check system. And you can use intelligence led monitoring to cover the rest.

    The free movement of people is already covered by the CTA.

    And yet such an easy solution eludes us - because it isn't based in reality. The bulk of Irish trade is food. We need to completely align our SPS standards with the EU and do a deal to remove the checks. Our standards ARE completely aligned, but apparently we can't agree a deal because at some point in the future the EU may increase their standards just to spite us.

    Even outside of food, there are naysayers on this forum including your good self decrying the idea of agreed alignment which is the basis for trusted trader / self-declaration systems.

    There is plenty of relevance to Scotland though - England thinking that it can drag savage appendages like NI and Scotland around to do something stupid against their will. The big push towards another independence vote up here is largely thanks to Brexit (and the Boris corrupt organisation), and they are literally rioting in NI.

    "Respect democracy" doesn't work when its imposed destruction.
    Why doesn't self-decleration work for food standards as well?

    As self-declaration doesn't work for non-food why would it work for food?

    To have such an agreement you have to have an agreement on standards which you are declaring compliance with. Otherwise self-declaration is "I declare that my goods are non-compliant with your standards".

    The problem is that despite our current and declared future alignment with EU standards, we won't agree to anything. Us. Not them.
    Why can't companies declare that they are compliant? Even if the standards here are different, companies could choose to meet EU standards and declare that so long as there's an intersection where its possible for them to meet our standards and theirs simultaneously. Like Chinese companies being able to put a CE Mark on their products despite China not having EU standards.

    We have no reason to agree to future alignment. There's no need for that for declarations, nor is there a need for that for equivalence. So the EU could rely on either declarations or equivalence, not alignment. Until then we should walk away and invoke A16.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 20,040
    On topic, my impression of the new SLAB leader is quite positive as regards 'look and feel", how he comes over.
  • ClippPClippP Posts: 657
    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I think Johnson was right. Letting the Northern Irish tail wag the British dog again would have been ridiculous, and probably led to serious riots in England.

    My preferred solution is still for us to get rid of Northern Ireland, which has been an embarassing and expensive curse for centuries.
    Certainly not from the Conservative and Unionist Party, the latter part of which came from opposition even to Irish Home Rule
    The Conservatives were mistaken to oppose Mr Gladstone's very reasonable proposals for Home Rule. Just think of all the problems that that would have saved us, if it had gone through the century before last. But the Conservatives spend all their time playing party politics, and never stop to think of the long-term interests of the country. They didn't then, and they don't now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,174
    10.45% positivity rate in India yesterday.

    Brazil, infinite......
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    PB continues to be obsessed with Scotland, while the PM's lies come home to roost in Northern Ireland.

    Varadkar and Coveney are the root cause of current Belfast theatre. The posh boys saw a sleeping dog and just kept poking it despite saner voices saying leave it.
    No, it is Johnsons deal. We signed up to it, we need to keep our word.

    I am surprised that so many PB Tories want to give in to rioters, when even a sit down protest in Bristol gets their goat.
    As and englishman your prime concern for NI is how it impacts your anti Boris shtick. Fair does. But as an Irishman I can assure the Varadkar Coveney stupidities are what is driving the current street theatre, which is why both of them now need 24/7 armed protection. Nobody so far is threatening to shoot BoJo.
    Boris Johnson has armed bodyguards for that very reason.

    IIRC the only cabinet ministers who received armed bodyguards/protection is the Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary, Defence Secretary, and the NI Secretary.
    He's a PM and always has protection, but I m not aware of any NI paramilitaries recently issuing a death threat. Varadkar and Coveny

    https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2021/03/22/news/leo-varadkar-being-guarded-round-the-clock-following-death-threats-2262594/

    Coveney is now worried things might get out of hand. A bit late Im afraid .

    https://news.yahoo.com/northern-ireland-riots-must-stop-074522319.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMJQGFuwzN5oiRRE7ujZqGmEECk7nWgqjF4E77nROKQFH33EIBT3n8lQ7SUKk7CEcORaf0tVSXnuOPrLy2FEQU_k6cTNfxrvQYVS_P7Jf8fwXN6WNwT0E0ENqCjDoa9ZSRohkKh9SsF2B9ohzIXMXV_FXMq_uo7t19a6XV4W8GO2

    His warning someone might get killed, has a worried personal ring to it.
    Want to know something funny somebody in the army told me a few years ago.

    Since the mid 80s (ever since the Anglo-Irish Agreement) the Taoiseach's Gardaí security detail has been supplemented by ex British military personnel. There was only ever one caveat, no ex parachute regiment.

    But nobody likes to talk about it, but it is one of the reasons why British troops parading in Dublin for Keith Malone's funeral in 2003 went so unremarked and without incident.
    Who or what was Keith Malone?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 20,040
    From the digital leader of the supposedly "unpatriotic" modern metro left -
    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1379902486002143237
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,600
    The resolution to the "Irish Sea Border' issue, is for the EU to pretend it's there, and for the UK to pretend it isn't.

    Classic Northern Irish Fudge.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 6,440

    Cicero said:

    I think this Holyrood election could be shaping up to be a real stooshie.

    The Tories and the SNP are mirroring each other and its not the greatest of looks for either party, but especially the Tories. Although Salmond is definitely reminding people about the bad stuff in the SNP, I still think the Tories without Ruth that will get a bigger kicking.

    Sarwar and Willie Rennie are having a good campaign. Is it enough to beat the Nats? Not on the current polls, but, anecdotally, something is happening. A cheeky outside bet might be SLAB/SLib Dem and Greens

    You do know the Greens are pro independence so it will either be a SNP majority or a SNP/Greens coalition

    I just cannot see any further than that, unless something extraordinary happens
    I imagine the Greens adherence to independence will be about as sincere as the average middle class Green voter that drives around in a 4x4 ( "look I know I shouldn't, but how else can I get all the kids to my first choice school?") and takes their holiday in the Maldives
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    edited April 8
    kinabalu said:

    From the digital leader of the supposedly "unpatriotic" modern metro left -
    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1379902486002143237

    Nothing to do with patriotism, Owen Jones attended Oxford University.

    People who born/grew up in Sheffield and attended Oxbridge are ghastly, ghastly people.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 9,999
    ydoethur said:

    IanB2 said:

    PB continues to be obsessed with Scotland, while the PM's lies come home to roost in Northern Ireland.

    We'll we're waiting for the Devil's Trifecta.

    Indyref2, a border poll in NI, and I'm working out what the third one in this awful trifecta will be.
    No 3. ART Davies becomes FM in Wales ensuring demands for Welsh Independence exceed 50% before the end of May.
    Welsh independence referendum under those circumstances.

    *Any given unionist points at RT* You want that man to have unlimited power?

    Support for independence drops to -5% and stays there for 50 years.
    I hadn't thought of that.

    I really should do some work!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    IanB2 said:

    PB continues to be obsessed with Scotland, while the PM's lies come home to roost in Northern Ireland.

    We'll we're waiting for the Devil's Trifecta.

    Indyref2, a border poll in NI, and I'm working out what the third one in this awful trifecta will be.
    No 3. ART Davies becomes FM in Wales ensuring demands for Welsh Independence exceed 50% before the end of May.
    If RT Davies becomes FM it will be because he is the most successful Welsh Tory leader ever and a humiliating result for Labour and Plaid, Wales voted for Brexit and it would cement Wales in Union with England even further.

    It would also almost certainly require the Tories to be over 40% in Wales
    That would indeed be true to just before the point where you write "cement Wales in Union with England even further". Do you think that blithering clown would do anything other than make the Conservatives unelectable in Wales for the remainder of the Millenium? And if Llafur are dead in the water, where does that lead us? PC!
    If the Tories are over 40% (which they would need to be to form a deal with Abolish which is the only way RT becomes FM), then RT would likely scrap the Senedd anyway with Abolish and Wales would return to full union with England. RT would clearly not be unelectable in Wales, the opposite, he would be the most successful Tory leader in Wales ever if he got over 40%.

    RT would get rewarded with a safe seat at Westminster then after
    ...and as such my anticipation of a surge in Welsh independence post FM RT, is reality.
    It isn't, if the Tories get over 40% and Abolish get 10%+ (which is the only way RT becomes FM), then RT would clearly have a mandate to abolish the Senedd.

    Wales would return to just being part of Westminster and Welsh voters would have voted for that
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 52,729

    Charles said:

    @RochdalePioneers

    I'd rather not derail this thread on Ireland, which generates more heat than light.

    And I'm certainly not an expert on trade.

    But the vast bulk of trade can be managed through a trusted trader / self-decleration / spot-check system. And you can use intelligence led monitoring to cover the rest.

    The free movement of people is already covered by the CTA.

    And yet such an easy solution eludes us - because it isn't based in reality. The bulk of Irish trade is food. We need to completely align our SPS standards with the EU and do a deal to remove the checks. Our standards ARE completely aligned, but apparently we can't agree a deal because at some point in the future the EU may increase their standards just to spite us.

    Even outside of food, there are naysayers on this forum including your good self decrying the idea of agreed alignment which is the basis for trusted trader / self-declaration systems.

    There is plenty of relevance to Scotland though - England thinking that it can drag savage appendages like NI and Scotland around to do something stupid against their will. The big push towards another independence vote up here is largely thanks to Brexit (and the Boris corrupt organisation), and they are literally rioting in NI.

    "Respect democracy" doesn't work when its imposed destruction.
    We don't "need" to align our SPS with the EU.

    It would be entirely possible to diverge with the EU but to recognise each others's SPS as "equivalent" and remove the need for checks etc
    .
    That may affect the "integrity" of the Single Market but so be it, we would be making the same compromise in return. That is a genuine compromise, not chaining one party to another like a slave.
    Mate, you keep dancing on this same pinhead. If our standards are "equivalent" then it means they are close enough to the required standard. Which they are now. And will be in the future as we declare that standards will only ever be increased. So we could do this as you suggest, but it is declaring that our standards will different *but directly comparable* to EU ones. Which you won't accept.

    We can't wildly diverge our standards and recognise an equivalence which isn't there.
    Yes we can. We can recognise our standards as currently equivalent but not commit to alignment, with a dispute system if divergence occurs in the future.

    No commitments then, and if divergence leads to issues in the future you cross that bridge when you get there. If it doesn't, there's no issue.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 20,040

    kinabalu said:

    From the digital leader of the supposedly "unpatriotic" modern metro left -
    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1379902486002143237

    Nothing to do with patriotism, Owen Jones attended Oxford University.

    People who grew up in Sheffield and attended Oxbridge are ghastly, ghastly people.
    :smile: - Is that a sly self-dig?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 83,671
    edited April 8

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I think Johnson was right. Letting the Northern Irish tail wag the British dog again would have been ridiculous, and probably led to serious riots in England.

    My preferred solution is still for us to get rid of Northern Ireland, which has been an embarassing and expensive curse for centuries.
    Certainly not from the Conservative and Unionist Party, the latter part of which came from opposition even to Irish Home Rule
    That was the old Conservative Party, Boris Johnson's new Tory party, of which you are an enthusiastic cheerleader, is prepared to sacrifice the Union for Brexit.

    [Conservative} Party members are also willing to sacrifice another fundamental tenet of Conservative belief in order to bring about Brexit: unionism.* Asked whether they would rather avert Brexit if it would lead to Scotland or Northern Ireland breaking away from the UK, respectively 63% and 59% of party members would be willing to pay for Brexit with the breakup of the United Kingdom.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/18/most-conservative-members-would-see-party-destroye
    In case you did not notice Brexit was delivered in 2020, so that poll is now irrelevant.

    We already have Brexit, so no forced choice is needed and Boris can now focus on banning a legal indyref2 and ignoring Sturgeon, who as the previous thread showed 73% of Tory voters despise
  • FishingFishing Posts: 1,997
    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I think Johnson was right. Letting the Northern Irish tail wag the British dog again would have been ridiculous, and probably led to serious riots in England.

    My preferred solution is still for us to get rid of Northern Ireland, which has been an embarassing and expensive curse for centuries.
    Certainly not from the Conservative and Unionist Party, the latter part of which came from opposition even to Irish Home Rule
    It is true, but political positions of a century and a half ago should not determine what we think or do today.

    Northern Ireland is a huge drain on our economy and politics and gives us nothing in return. The Republicans actively want to sabotage the country, and the Unionists would have landed us with Corbyn in 2017 if we hadn't bribed them. So we're much better off without them.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,174
    edited April 8
    Probably best if under 30s get the ultrastrength Pfizer/Moderna. Let's be honest here people head out out way more in their 20s than 30s generally.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,600
    Pulpstar said:

    10.45% positivity rate in India yesterday.

    Brazil, infinite......

    India, South America, Eastern Europe, all look in real trouble at the moment.

    We in the West need to get our own populations vaccinated as soon as possible, then do everything we can to help out the rest of the world - including vaccines, medical staff, equipment and supplies.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    ydoethur said:

    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    PB continues to be obsessed with Scotland, while the PM's lies come home to roost in Northern Ireland.

    Varadkar and Coveney are the root cause of current Belfast theatre. The posh boys saw a sleeping dog and just kept poking it despite saner voices saying leave it.
    No, it is Johnsons deal. We signed up to it, we need to keep our word.

    I am surprised that so many PB Tories want to give in to rioters, when even a sit down protest in Bristol gets their goat.
    As and englishman your prime concern for NI is how it impacts your anti Boris shtick. Fair does. But as an Irishman I can assure the Varadkar Coveney stupidities are what is driving the current street theatre, which is why both of them now need 24/7 armed protection. Nobody so far is threatening to shoot BoJo.
    Boris Johnson has armed bodyguards for that very reason.

    IIRC the only cabinet ministers who received armed bodyguards/protection is the Foreign Secretary, Home Secretary, Defence Secretary, and the NI Secretary.
    He's a PM and always has protection, but I m not aware of any NI paramilitaries recently issuing a death threat. Varadkar and Coveny

    https://www.irishnews.com/news/northernirelandnews/2021/03/22/news/leo-varadkar-being-guarded-round-the-clock-following-death-threats-2262594/

    Coveney is now worried things might get out of hand. A bit late Im afraid .

    https://news.yahoo.com/northern-ireland-riots-must-stop-074522319.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuYmluZy5jb20v&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAMJQGFuwzN5oiRRE7ujZqGmEECk7nWgqjF4E77nROKQFH33EIBT3n8lQ7SUKk7CEcORaf0tVSXnuOPrLy2FEQU_k6cTNfxrvQYVS_P7Jf8fwXN6WNwT0E0ENqCjDoa9ZSRohkKh9SsF2B9ohzIXMXV_FXMq_uo7t19a6XV4W8GO2

    His warning someone might get killed, has a worried personal ring to it.
    Want to know something funny somebody in the army told me a few years ago.

    Since the mid 80s (ever since the Anglo-Irish Agreement) the Taoiseach's Gardaí security detail has been supplemented by ex British military personnel. There was only ever one caveat, no ex parachute regiment.

    But nobody likes to talk about it, but it is one of the reasons why British troops parading in Dublin for Keith Malone's funeral in 2003 went so unremarked and without incident.
    Who or what was Keith Malone?
    My bad, I meant Ian Malone.

    Keith Malone is a friend of mine.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 21,432
    Fishing said:

    HYUFD said:

    Fishing said:

    Scott_xP said:
    I think Johnson was right. Letting the Northern Irish tail wag the British dog again would have been ridiculous, and probably led to serious riots in England.

    My preferred solution is still for us to get rid of Northern Ireland, which has been an embarassing and expensive curse for centuries.
    Certainly not from the Conservative and Unionist Party, the latter part of which came from opposition even to Irish Home Rule
    It is true, but political positions of a century and a half ago should not determine what we think or do today.

    Northern Ireland is a huge drain on our economy and politics and gives us nothing in return. The Republicans actively want to sabotage the country, and the Unionists would have landed us with Corbyn in 2017 if we hadn't bribed them. So we're much better off without them.
    I feel that about London

    can we ditch that too ?
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 14,627

    DavidL said:

    I think it is very likely that Labour will beat the Tories this time out. As a Unionist I am much more interested in the overall situation between the groupings than how the vote is divided within them. I wish Sarwar every success in regaining votes and hopefully seats in Glasgow.

    Douglas Ross is proving a bit rubbish, I notice SCons have put Ruth Davidson front and centre recently in this campaign.

    A wise move.
    I said at the time that Ross attacking Nippie on grounds of honesty and propriety was ludicrous. Now that she has been cleared and is rock solid in place the Tory attack appears even sillier as it fades into the background. That they have been reduced to sticking Baroness Chickenrun on their leaflets just makes it funnier.
    He doesnt need to, the vicar of Bath is on the case accusing her of trousering £600k. More mud and some of it will stick.

    https://wingsoverscotland.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/snpswindlefinal.png
    She hasn't been cleared, RP is deliberately misrepresenting the facts to suit his (bizarrely) favourable to the SNP schtick. I expect this to last a relatively short period into his residence in Scotland, where he'll gradually realise what the SNP are actually all about.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 91,671
    kinabalu said:

    kinabalu said:

    From the digital leader of the supposedly "unpatriotic" modern metro left -
    https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1379902486002143237

    Nothing to do with patriotism, Owen Jones attended Oxford University.

    People who grew up in Sheffield and attended Oxbridge are ghastly, ghastly people.
    :smile: - Is that a sly self-dig?
    Well you know me, I am the master of subtlety.
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