Actually Scotland shows some reasonably encouraging signs for Labour right now. The new guy is up quite a lot of points after the debate and the Tory is way down.
I am going to make a bet on Labour gains in 2024 in Scotland.
Surely the answer to the vaxport issue is to enable them, but wherever they are used, give people the legal alternative of a covid test?
If you haven’t had the vax but you ALSO refuse a test, well then that’s tough, you can’t go anywhere
Or just chuck social distancing into the bin from June 21st and be done with it. The government is imposing these restrictions, not the venues.
This, at least, is one argument that will be settled. I tend to agree with you that the SAGE pessimists are wrong. There won’t a be a 4th wave ‘like January’ (unless we are hideously unlucky with another mutation)
By late June it should be obvious if Covid has fizzled out, as it seems to be doing in Israel (and, increasingly, the UK)
If that’s the case then we can get rid of everything, from masks to hand San.
If, however, the SAGE gloomsters are right, then we will probably need vaxports everywhere. They will be the only way to alleviate the social and economic horrors of another lockdown
No, we can’t allow theatres, concert halls and nightclubs to reopen. They must remain CLOSED so that we can all be FREE
But they're imposing the social distancing rules making them uneconomic. It's a completelg circular argument. They're making it impossible for these venues to operate normally and then saying that the vaccine passport is the way out of it, not just junking the social distancing rules. It's the government regulations on social distancing that need to be binned forever.
To be fair, the options are something like -
1) Open up soon, with vaccine passports and tests and social distancing 2) Open up soon, with social distancing 3) Open up soon and let the unvaccinated take their chances. Along with those that the vaccine didn't work for 4) Open up later with everyone vaccinated.
Option 3) will mean that you will get a mini-epidemic among the unvaccinated/those the vaccine didn't take for.
Option 2) means more economic damage Option 1) Is what you don't want Option 4) leaves people demanding "I've had my shots, let me out!", lots of economic damage
Surely the answer to the vaxport issue is to enable them, but wherever they are used, give people the legal alternative of a covid test?
If you haven’t had the vax but you ALSO refuse a test, well then that’s tough, you can’t go anywhere
Or just chuck social distancing into the bin from June 21st and be done with it. The government is imposing these restrictions, not the venues.
I would have thought that the success of the vaccination program would allow the government to bring forward the June 21st - at least by two weeks so that we have no restrictions for the Euro 2021 tournament.
This country loves a good football tournament, and it would be a great start to post-Covid life to be able to enjoy this summer's tournament without having to worry about the minutiae of Covid regulations.
The whole point of pushing forward the vaccination drive was to allow us to put Covid behind us earlier, but the government seem determined to squander its success.
No, we can’t allow theatres, concert halls and nightclubs to reopen. They must remain CLOSED so that we can all be FREE
But they're imposing the social distancing rules making them uneconomic. It's a completelg circular argument. They're making it impossible for these venues to operate normally and then saying that the vaccine passport is the way out of it, not just junking the social distancing rules. It's the government regulations on social distancing that need to be binned forever.
To be fair, the options are something like -
1) Open up soon, with vaccine passports and tests and social distancing 2) Open up soon, with social distancing 3) Open up soon and let the unvaccinated take their chances. Along with those that the vaccine didn't work for 4) Open up later with everyone vaccinated.
Option 3) will mean that you will get a mini-epidemic among the unvaccinated/those the vaccine didn't take for.
Option 2) means more economic damage Option 1) Is what you don't want Option 4) leaves people demanding "I've had my shots, let me out!", lots of economic damage
Option 3 doesn't mean there will be a mini-epidemic. R should be way lower than as most vaccinated people won't be vectors able to transmit it to others.
Option 3 is a possibility but I suspect it's only a very slim (less than 5%) one.
Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc
He's Boris, its his name.
Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.
Starmer is sometimes called Keith.
It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
No he isn't, he's Johnson. That's how you refer to somebody in this context.
Surely the answer to the vaxport issue is to enable them, but wherever they are used, give people the legal alternative of a covid test?
If you haven’t had the vax but you ALSO refuse a test, well then that’s tough, you can’t go anywhere
Or just chuck social distancing into the bin from June 21st and be done with it. The government is imposing these restrictions, not the venues.
This, at least, is one argument that will be settled. I tend to agree with you that the SAGE pessimists are wrong. There won’t a be a 4th wave ‘like January’ (unless we are hideously unlucky with another mutation)
By late June it should be obvious if Covid has fizzled out, as it seems to be doing in Israel (and, increasingly, the UK)
If that’s the case then we can get rid of everything, from masks to hand San.
If, however, the SAGE gloomsters are right, then we will probably need vaxports everywhere. They will be the only way to alleviate the social and economic horrors of another lockdown
We are in this precarious twlight zone between where the end of the pandemic looks tantalisingly close yet not here yet. Think back 12 weeks to early January and remember how bleak it was. We would be delighted to be having this conversation then. In 11-12 weeks, June we will know a lot more. I'm optimistic.
No, we can’t allow theatres, concert halls and nightclubs to reopen. They must remain CLOSED so that we can all be FREE
But they're imposing the social distancing rules making them uneconomic. It's a completelg circular argument. They're making it impossible for these venues to operate normally and then saying that the vaccine passport is the way out of it, not just junking the social distancing rules. It's the government regulations on social distancing that need to be binned forever.
It depends what the bug does, dunnit?
If by June we are down to near zero covid (we will never hit zero) with no pressure on the NHS, cases minimal, a few deaths a day, then of course we must open up. Everything. I will burn my masks in a fearsome ritual.
From what I can tell there is a big debate WITHIN govt as to what will happen in the summer. Some SAGE pessimists are predicting a 4th wave nearly as bad as January. To me that seems highly unlikely because vaccines. But these people are boffins so we can’t completely dismiss them
The confusion on vaxports probably stems from this fierce internal HMG debate between the vaccine optimists and the 4th wave pessimists
Those sage pessimists put efficacy of 32% for a single dose and 62% for two doses into their model. We know actual observed efficacy of a single dose of either Pfizer or AZ is 80% and for two doses it's over 99% for AZ and over 99.9% for Pfizer on the cumulative hospitalisations measure.
Who is the fourth wave going to present itself in?
As I say, I agree with you. There’s a Telegraph piece today that points out these same doomy boffins predicted 4000 deaths a day in January. Absurdly over the top and gloomy, as it turned out
However they are clearly one voice advising the government, amongst others; hence, I think, the government looking nervy and super cautious
Surely the answer to the vaxport issue is to enable them, but wherever they are used, give people the legal alternative of a covid test?
If you haven’t had the vax but you ALSO refuse a test, well then that’s tough, you can’t go anywhere
Or just chuck social distancing into the bin from June 21st and be done with it. The government is imposing these restrictions, not the venues.
This, at least, is one argument that will be settled. I tend to agree with you that the SAGE pessimists are wrong. There won’t a be a 4th wave ‘like January’ (unless we are hideously unlucky with another mutation)
By late June it should be obvious if Covid has fizzled out, as it seems to be doing in Israel (and, increasingly, the UK)
If that’s the case then we can get rid of everything, from masks to hand San.
If, however, the SAGE gloomsters are right, then we will probably need vaxports everywhere. They will be the only way to alleviate the social and economic horrors of another lockdown
The sage pessimists are already wrong. They're putting in unnecessarily pessimistic inputs into their model to achieve their goal of scaring unwitting rubes into believing vaccine passports are a necessary evil. This was the same idiotic team that predicted a peak of 4k deaths per day (with a lockdown) by simply inputting unrealistic R values into their model.
They have an agenda, they will do whatever it takes to push it, this time they are downgrading the vaccine efficacy from 80% for a single dose and over 99% for two doses to 32% for a single dose and 62% for two doses.
There is no reason to do that. Literally, no reason. They are doing it so SAGE and these other public health bodies can hold onto this enormous power they have over the public at large.
Surely the answer to the vaxport issue is to enable them, but wherever they are used, give people the legal alternative of a covid test?
If you haven’t had the vax but you ALSO refuse a test, well then that’s tough, you can’t go anywhere
Or just chuck social distancing into the bin from June 21st and be done with it. The government is imposing these restrictions, not the venues.
This, at least, is one argument that will be settled. I tend to agree with you that the SAGE pessimists are wrong. There won’t a be a 4th wave ‘like January’ (unless we are hideously unlucky with another mutation)
By late June it should be obvious if Covid has fizzled out, as it seems to be doing in Israel (and, increasingly, the UK)
If that’s the case then we can get rid of everything, from masks to hand San.
If, however, the SAGE gloomsters are right, then we will probably need vaxports everywhere. They will be the only way to alleviate the social and economic horrors of another lockdown
The sage pessimists are already wrong. They're putting in unnecessarily pessimistic inputs into their model to achieve their goal of scaring unwitting rubes into believing vaccine passports are a necessary evil. This was the same idiotic team that predicted a peak of 4k deaths per day (with a lockdown) by simply inputting unrealistic R values into their model.
They have an agenda, they will do whatever it takes to push it, this time they are downgrading the vaccine efficacy from 80% for a single dose and over 99% for two doses to 32% for a single dose and 62% for two doses.
There is no reason to do that. Literally, no reason. They are doing it so SAGE and these other public health bodies can hold onto this enormous power they have over the public at large.
They might just be crap scientists. It seems we’ve got a few of those, along with many great ones
Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc
He's Boris, its his name.
Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.
Starmer is sometimes called Keith.
It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
No he isn't, he's Johnson. That's how you refer to somebody in this context.
You don't call Starmer "Keir".
You wish we all called Starmer "Keir", in other words.
Since we don't, you'll settle for us stopping calling Johnson "Boris".
Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc
He's Boris, its his name.
Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.
Starmer is sometimes called Keith.
It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
No he isn't, he's Johnson. That's how you refer to somebody in this context.
You don't call Starmer "Keir".
Well, quite often, we do. Not least because, like Boris, there aren't that many people around with his name.
Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc
He's Boris, its his name.
Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.
Starmer is sometimes called Keith.
It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
No he isn't, he's Johnson. That's how you refer to somebody in this context.
It’s staggering to me that a lot of people seem to think Labour is point scoring in a crisis when others simultaneously think they aren’t doing anything at all. I can’t comprehend that
Because you can take sensible constructive criticism. Hunt has done that e.g. he suggested things like having schools open for key worker kids and restricting visits to old people homes.
Labour response time and time again has been we agree, then complaining about more money needed or nit picking about nonsense. Then 2 weeks later moaning government doing it all wrong.
That wasn’t my point, my point is how so many people can think they’re not doing any opposition whilst others think it’s far too much. People really do have widely different perceptions, it’s actually kind of fascinating
Its almost as if people aren't a homogenous bloc so you can't please everyone all the time.
The problem is that Keir hasn't chosen a bloc. He vacillates between the two, so those who want opposition say he's not doing it, those who don't want nit picking think he is doing it. Because they both see him doing what they don't want.
Surely the answer to the vaxport issue is to enable them, but wherever they are used, give people the legal alternative of a covid test?
If you haven’t had the vax but you ALSO refuse a test, well then that’s tough, you can’t go anywhere
Or just chuck social distancing into the bin from June 21st and be done with it. The government is imposing these restrictions, not the venues.
This, at least, is one argument that will be settled. I tend to agree with you that the SAGE pessimists are wrong. There won’t a be a 4th wave ‘like January’ (unless we are hideously unlucky with another mutation)
By late June it should be obvious if Covid has fizzled out, as it seems to be doing in Israel (and, increasingly, the UK)
If that’s the case then we can get rid of everything, from masks to hand San.
If, however, the SAGE gloomsters are right, then we will probably need vaxports everywhere. They will be the only way to alleviate the social and economic horrors of another lockdown
The sage pessimists are already wrong. They're putting in unnecessarily pessimistic inputs into their model to achieve their goal of scaring unwitting rubes into believing vaccine passports are a necessary evil. This was the same idiotic team that predicted a peak of 4k deaths per day (with a lockdown) by simply inputting unrealistic R values into their model.
They have an agenda, they will do whatever it takes to push it, this time they are downgrading the vaccine efficacy from 80% for a single dose and over 99% for two doses to 32% for a single dose and 62% for two doses.
There is no reason to do that. Literally, no reason. They are doing it so SAGE and these other public health bodies can hold onto this enormous power they have over the public at large.
In the early days last year, the pessimists were right because they were just going on numbers and weren't distracted by analogies with flu. Now that we have a much better understanding of covid along with real-world immunological data, it's no longer justified to take that approach.
Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc
He's Boris, its his name.
Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.
Starmer is sometimes called Keith.
It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
No he isn't, he's Johnson. That's how you refer to somebody in this context.
You don't call Starmer "Keir".
You wish we all called Starmer "Keir", in other words.
Since we don't, you'll settle for us stopping calling Johnson "Boris".
Incorrect. Keir is Starmer, Boris is Johnson. Got nothing to do with that at all.
Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc
He's Boris, its his name.
Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.
Starmer is sometimes called Keith.
It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
No he isn't, he's Johnson. That's how you refer to somebody in this context.
You don't call Starmer "Keir".
You wish we all called Starmer "Keir", in other words.
Since we don't, you'll settle for us stopping calling Johnson "Boris".
Boris has become his brand name and everyone knows who he is
Unfortunately, for his opponents they are not going to be able to change that perception by insisting on calling him Johnson (who)
Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc
He's Boris, its his name.
Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.
Starmer is sometimes called Keith.
It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
No he isn't, he's Johnson. That's how you refer to somebody in this context.
You don't call Starmer "Keir".
You wish we all called Starmer "Keir", in other words.
Since we don't, you'll settle for us stopping calling Johnson "Boris".
Incorrect. Keir is Starmer, Boris is Johnson. Got nothing to do with that at all.
If you insist Mr Battery you can call people by their surname.
Surely the answer to the vaxport issue is to enable them, but wherever they are used, give people the legal alternative of a covid test?
If you haven’t had the vax but you ALSO refuse a test, well then that’s tough, you can’t go anywhere
Or just chuck social distancing into the bin from June 21st and be done with it. The government is imposing these restrictions, not the venues.
This, at least, is one argument that will be settled. I tend to agree with you that the SAGE pessimists are wrong. There won’t a be a 4th wave ‘like January’ (unless we are hideously unlucky with another mutation)
By late June it should be obvious if Covid has fizzled out, as it seems to be doing in Israel (and, increasingly, the UK)
If that’s the case then we can get rid of everything, from masks to hand San.
If, however, the SAGE gloomsters are right, then we will probably need vaxports everywhere. They will be the only way to alleviate the social and economic horrors of another lockdown
We are in this precarious twlight zone between where the end of the pandemic looks tantalisingly close yet not here yet. Think back 12 weeks to early January and remember how bleak it was. We would be delighted to be having this conversation then. In 11-12 weeks, June we will know a lot more. I'm optimistic.
The base case shouldn’t be steady state, in any case, but a steady improvement similar to that we saw last year between May and August. With vaccination proceeding steadily (even now in much of the EU) this year should surely be better still.
Having looked at the Hartlepool tables, there's only 2 real conclusions that you can take out.
1. Among BXP likely to vote (a tiny 13 unweighted), 60% to Con, 30% undecided, 0% to Lab means that it's likely that Con will harvest more of the BXP vote than Labour will.
2. SKS isn't very popular among any group.
Point 1 is the big one, BXP may have been the gateway drug, and while it's hard to draw conclusions from 13(!) likely to vote people, the sheer tilt towards the Cons indicates that those never Tories are at least sometimes Tories now. Good news for the incumbent Tees Valley Mayor.
The Tees Valley Mayor didn't need the Good News of a Pools by-election - he was walking to a big victory anyway. A combination of a politician who actually over-delivers, a well-resourced and professional media operation, then Unite imposing a Labour candidate so bad that most activists refuse to work for her meant that he was going to win big regardless.
Which may or may not be good news for him. Due to Osborne, the Tees Valley Mayor gets paid an absurd £35k. Which has to mean that young Ben is being supported by the benevolence of others. Potential for financial scandal if they get that wrong - why not simply pay him a sensible salary like the other mayors?
That salary is for a full-time, executive position, or does he cut ribbons and chair meetings two days a week? I’d expect a directly elected mayor to be full time, in which case the salary should be more in line with that of an MP.
Surely the answer to the vaxport issue is to enable them, but wherever they are used, give people the legal alternative of a covid test?
If you haven’t had the vax but you ALSO refuse a test, well then that’s tough, you can’t go anywhere
Or just chuck social distancing into the bin from June 21st and be done with it. The government is imposing these restrictions, not the venues.
This, at least, is one argument that will be settled. I tend to agree with you that the SAGE pessimists are wrong. There won’t a be a 4th wave ‘like January’ (unless we are hideously unlucky with another mutation)
By late June it should be obvious if Covid has fizzled out, as it seems to be doing in Israel (and, increasingly, the UK)
If that’s the case then we can get rid of everything, from masks to hand San.
If, however, the SAGE gloomsters are right, then we will probably need vaxports everywhere. They will be the only way to alleviate the social and economic horrors of another lockdown
The sage pessimists are already wrong. They're putting in unnecessarily pessimistic inputs into their model to achieve their goal of scaring unwitting rubes into believing vaccine passports are a necessary evil. This was the same idiotic team that predicted a peak of 4k deaths per day (with a lockdown) by simply inputting unrealistic R values into their model.
They have an agenda, they will do whatever it takes to push it, this time they are downgrading the vaccine efficacy from 80% for a single dose and over 99% for two doses to 32% for a single dose and 62% for two doses.
There is no reason to do that. Literally, no reason. They are doing it so SAGE and these other public health bodies can hold onto this enormous power they have over the public at large.
I will say it again.
We seem to have come a long way from the generally accepted notion on here that the government and SAGE 'do not want to keep us in lockdown a minute longer that necessary'
When I suggested SAGE had an agenda that was nothing to do with combatting the virus back in January, poster after poster lined up to call me anti-vaxxer, conspiracy theorist etc etc etc. and those were the polite descriptions.
The sage pessimists are already wrong. They're putting in unnecessarily pessimistic inputs into their model to achieve their goal of scaring unwitting rubes into believing vaccine passports are a necessary evil. This was the same idiotic team that predicted a peak of 4k deaths per day (with a lockdown) by simply inputting unrealistic R values into their model.
They have an agenda, they will do whatever it takes to push it, this time they are downgrading the vaccine efficacy from 80% for a single dose and over 99% for two doses to 32% for a single dose and 62% for two doses.
There is no reason to do that. Literally, no reason. They are doing it so SAGE and these other public health bodies can hold onto this enormous power they have over the public at large.
You are being very silly. Of course they're not trying 'to achieve their goal of scaring unwitting rubes into believing vaccine passports are a necessary evil'. For heaven's sake, get a grip!
On the substantive point, yes I agree their assumptions look over-cautious, provided that we don't get hit by vaccine-resistant variants. However, isn't the efficacy they've assumed that which refers to whether a vaccinated person can infect someone else? You are quoting the efficacy on symptomatic cases, which is potentially a very different number. There's not much data on the former.
Surely the answer to the vaxport issue is to enable them, but wherever they are used, give people the legal alternative of a covid test?
If you haven’t had the vax but you ALSO refuse a test, well then that’s tough, you can’t go anywhere
Or just chuck social distancing into the bin from June 21st and be done with it. The government is imposing these restrictions, not the venues.
This, at least, is one argument that will be settled. I tend to agree with you that the SAGE pessimists are wrong. There won’t a be a 4th wave ‘like January’ (unless we are hideously unlucky with another mutation)
By late June it should be obvious if Covid has fizzled out, as it seems to be doing in Israel (and, increasingly, the UK)
If that’s the case then we can get rid of everything, from masks to hand San.
If, however, the SAGE gloomsters are right, then we will probably need vaxports everywhere. They will be the only way to alleviate the social and economic horrors of another lockdown
The sage pessimists are already wrong. They're putting in unnecessarily pessimistic inputs into their model to achieve their goal of scaring unwitting rubes into believing vaccine passports are a necessary evil. This was the same idiotic team that predicted a peak of 4k deaths per day (with a lockdown) by simply inputting unrealistic R values into their model.
They have an agenda, they will do whatever it takes to push it, this time they are downgrading the vaccine efficacy from 80% for a single dose and over 99% for two doses to 32% for a single dose and 62% for two doses.
There is no reason to do that. Literally, no reason. They are doing it so SAGE and these other public health bodies can hold onto this enormous power they have over the public at large.
In the early days last year, the pessimists were right because they were just going on numbers and weren't distracted by analogies with flu. Now that we have a much better understanding of covid along with real-world immunological data, it's no longer justified to take that approach.
There is likely a psychological bias towards pessimism, as well. Throughout the pandemic the pessimists and lockdowners have generally been right. Remember when we thought ‘20,000 deaths would be quite good’ - now we have 150,000. Likewise, Boris was told, by the pessimists, to lock down immediately or else. He didn’t. Here we are.
Opening up too early, in the hope the plague is dying out, has usually been the route to disaster, locking down more severely always looks better (unless you actually worry about debt). Pessimism pays. Optimism is risky.
Having looked at the Hartlepool tables, there's only 2 real conclusions that you can take out.
1. Among BXP likely to vote (a tiny 13 unweighted), 60% to Con, 30% undecided, 0% to Lab means that it's likely that Con will harvest more of the BXP vote than Labour will.
2. SKS isn't very popular among any group.
Point 1 is the big one, BXP may have been the gateway drug, and while it's hard to draw conclusions from 13(!) likely to vote people, the sheer tilt towards the Cons indicates that those never Tories are at least sometimes Tories now. Good news for the incumbent Tees Valley Mayor.
The Tees Valley Mayor didn't need the Good News of a Pools by-election - he was walking to a big victory anyway. A combination of a politician who actually over-delivers, a well-resourced and professional media operation, then Unite imposing a Labour candidate so bad that most activists refuse to work for her meant that he was going to win big regardless.
Which may or may not be good news for him. Due to Osborne, the Tees Valley Mayor gets paid an absurd £35k. Which has to mean that young Ben is being supported by the benevolence of others. Potential for financial scandal if they get that wrong - why not simply pay him a sensible salary like the other mayors?
That salary is for a full-time, executive position, or does he cut ribbons and chair meetings two days a week? I’d expect a directly elected mayor to be full time, in which case the salary should be more in line with that of an MP.
It's an elected full time post. Osbourne really didn't like the idea thinking it would be another Labour disaster so really screwed up the pay.
Surely the answer to the vaxport issue is to enable them, but wherever they are used, give people the legal alternative of a covid test?
If you haven’t had the vax but you ALSO refuse a test, well then that’s tough, you can’t go anywhere
Or just chuck social distancing into the bin from June 21st and be done with it. The government is imposing these restrictions, not the venues.
This, at least, is one argument that will be settled. I tend to agree with you that the SAGE pessimists are wrong. There won’t a be a 4th wave ‘like January’ (unless we are hideously unlucky with another mutation)
By late June it should be obvious if Covid has fizzled out, as it seems to be doing in Israel (and, increasingly, the UK)
If that’s the case then we can get rid of everything, from masks to hand San.
If, however, the SAGE gloomsters are right, then we will probably need vaxports everywhere. They will be the only way to alleviate the social and economic horrors of another lockdown
The sage pessimists are already wrong. They're putting in unnecessarily pessimistic inputs into their model to achieve their goal of scaring unwitting rubes into believing vaccine passports are a necessary evil. This was the same idiotic team that predicted a peak of 4k deaths per day (with a lockdown) by simply inputting unrealistic R values into their model.
They have an agenda, they will do whatever it takes to push it, this time they are downgrading the vaccine efficacy from 80% for a single dose and over 99% for two doses to 32% for a single dose and 62% for two doses.
There is no reason to do that. Literally, no reason. They are doing it so SAGE and these other public health bodies can hold onto this enormous power they have over the public at large.
I will say it again.
We seem to have come a long way from the generally accepted notion on here that the government and SAGE 'do not want to keep us in lockdown a minute longer that necessary'
When I suggested SAGE had an agenda that was nothing to do with combatting the virus back in January, poster after poster lined up to call me anti-vaxxer, conspiracy theorist etc etc etc. and those were the polite descriptions.
You are.
SAGE aren't the government, they're advisors. The government has no interest or incentive in keeping us locked down a day more than needed. Its not good for the economy and its not good for winning votes.
No, we can’t allow theatres, concert halls and nightclubs to reopen. They must remain CLOSED so that we can all be FREE
But they're imposing the social distancing rules making them uneconomic. It's a completelg circular argument. They're making it impossible for these venues to operate normally and then saying that the vaccine passport is the way out of it, not just junking the social distancing rules. It's the government regulations on social distancing that need to be binned forever.
It depends what the bug does, dunnit?
If by June we are down to near zero covid (we will never hit zero) with no pressure on the NHS, cases minimal, a few deaths a day, then of course we must open up. Everything. I will burn my masks in a fearsome ritual.
From what I can tell there is a big debate WITHIN govt as to what will happen in the summer. Some SAGE pessimists are predicting a 4th wave nearly as bad as January. To me that seems highly unlikely because vaccines. But these people are boffins so we can’t completely dismiss them
The confusion on vaxports probably stems from this fierce internal HMG debate between the vaccine optimists and the 4th wave pessimists
Those sage pessimists put efficacy of 32% for a single dose and 62% for two doses into their model. We know actual observed efficacy of a single dose of either Pfizer or AZ is 80% and for two doses it's over 99% for AZ and over 99.9% for Pfizer on the cumulative hospitalisations measure.
Who is the fourth wave going to present itself in?
I think the issue with the survation poll is that because the Brexit Party is now ancient history many of those sampled have either forgotten - or chosen not to remember - that they voted Brexit.
Surely the answer to the vaxport issue is to enable them, but wherever they are used, give people the legal alternative of a covid test?
If you haven’t had the vax but you ALSO refuse a test, well then that’s tough, you can’t go anywhere
Or just chuck social distancing into the bin from June 21st and be done with it. The government is imposing these restrictions, not the venues.
This, at least, is one argument that will be settled. I tend to agree with you that the SAGE pessimists are wrong. There won’t a be a 4th wave ‘like January’ (unless we are hideously unlucky with another mutation)
By late June it should be obvious if Covid has fizzled out, as it seems to be doing in Israel (and, increasingly, the UK)
If that’s the case then we can get rid of everything, from masks to hand San.
If, however, the SAGE gloomsters are right, then we will probably need vaxports everywhere. They will be the only way to alleviate the social and economic horrors of another lockdown
The sage pessimists are already wrong. They're putting in unnecessarily pessimistic inputs into their model to achieve their goal of scaring unwitting rubes into believing vaccine passports are a necessary evil. This was the same idiotic team that predicted a peak of 4k deaths per day (with a lockdown) by simply inputting unrealistic R values into their model.
They have an agenda, they will do whatever it takes to push it, this time they are downgrading the vaccine efficacy from 80% for a single dose and over 99% for two doses to 32% for a single dose and 62% for two doses.
There is no reason to do that. Literally, no reason. They are doing it so SAGE and these other public health bodies can hold onto this enormous power they have over the public at large.
Is it the public at large they are trying to scare or the govt ministers who overruled them when they wanted a lockdown last autumn? I suspect it is as much the latter as the former, but agree it is agenda driven and goes beyond developing a cautious approach.
Yes, he should have invented his own advice like a Proper Politician rather than hiding behind medical decisions of the national regulator.
WOW that really is funny,
Correct me if I'm wrong but if Boris had done a Ron de Santis and told the scientists where to go at any stage over the past year, I reckon I would still have been able to hear your voice over the more general screeching about recklessness, following the science, people dying, lockdown harder, isn;t Italy great, isn;t Belgium wonderful etc.
No, we can’t allow theatres, concert halls and nightclubs to reopen. They must remain CLOSED so that we can all be FREE
But they're imposing the social distancing rules making them uneconomic. It's a completelg circular argument. They're making it impossible for these venues to operate normally and then saying that the vaccine passport is the way out of it, not just junking the social distancing rules. It's the government regulations on social distancing that need to be binned forever.
It depends what the bug does, dunnit?
If by June we are down to near zero covid (we will never hit zero) with no pressure on the NHS, cases minimal, a few deaths a day, then of course we must open up. Everything. I will burn my masks in a fearsome ritual.
From what I can tell there is a big debate WITHIN govt as to what will happen in the summer. Some SAGE pessimists are predicting a 4th wave nearly as bad as January. To me that seems highly unlikely because vaccines. But these people are boffins so we can’t completely dismiss them
The confusion on vaxports probably stems from this fierce internal HMG debate between the vaccine optimists and the 4th wave pessimists
Those sage pessimists put efficacy of 32% for a single dose and 62% for two doses into their model. We know actual observed efficacy of a single dose of either Pfizer or AZ is 80% and for two doses it's over 99% for AZ and over 99.9% for Pfizer on the cumulative hospitalisations measure.
Who is the fourth wave going to present itself in?
Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc
He's Boris, its his name.
Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.
Starmer is sometimes called Keith.
It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
No he isn't, he's Johnson. That's how you refer to somebody in this context.
For the EU to overtake the UK (and wouldn't it be good if they did), the UK would have to become the sleeping hare.
An interesting take. Germany is around 20m 'first' jabs behind the UK, this may decrease slowly as the UK focuses on second doses but in reality Germany is at least 2 months behind the UK, same with France. If the race is to immunize the vulnerable first and unlock the economy then the EU has already lost.
Yes, he should have invented his own advice like a Proper Politician rather than hiding behind medical decisions of the national regulator.
WOW that really is funny,
Correct me if I'm wrong but if Boris had done a Ron de Santis and told the scientists where to go at any stage over the past year, I reckon I would still have been able to hear your voice over the more general screeching about recklessness, following the science, people dying, lockdown harder, isn;t Italy great, isn;t Belgium wonderful etc.
So you think Johnson should be deciding which vaccines to use, and who should get them?
No, we can’t allow theatres, concert halls and nightclubs to reopen. They must remain CLOSED so that we can all be FREE
But they're imposing the social distancing rules making them uneconomic. It's a completelg circular argument. They're making it impossible for these venues to operate normally and then saying that the vaccine passport is the way out of it, not just junking the social distancing rules. It's the government regulations on social distancing that need to be binned forever.
It depends what the bug does, dunnit?
If by June we are down to near zero covid (we will never hit zero) with no pressure on the NHS, cases minimal, a few deaths a day, then of course we must open up. Everything. I will burn my masks in a fearsome ritual.
From what I can tell there is a big debate WITHIN govt as to what will happen in the summer. Some SAGE pessimists are predicting a 4th wave nearly as bad as January. To me that seems highly unlikely because vaccines. But these people are boffins so we can’t completely dismiss them
The confusion on vaxports probably stems from this fierce internal HMG debate between the vaccine optimists and the 4th wave pessimists
Those sage pessimists put efficacy of 32% for a single dose and 62% for two doses into their model. We know actual observed efficacy of a single dose of either Pfizer or AZ is 80% and for two doses it's over 99% for AZ and over 99.9% for Pfizer on the cumulative hospitalisations measure.
Who is the fourth wave going to present itself in?
No, we can’t allow theatres, concert halls and nightclubs to reopen. They must remain CLOSED so that we can all be FREE
But they're imposing the social distancing rules making them uneconomic. It's a completelg circular argument. They're making it impossible for these venues to operate normally and then saying that the vaccine passport is the way out of it, not just junking the social distancing rules. It's the government regulations on social distancing that need to be binned forever.
It depends what the bug does, dunnit?
If by June we are down to near zero covid (we will never hit zero) with no pressure on the NHS, cases minimal, a few deaths a day, then of course we must open up. Everything. I will burn my masks in a fearsome ritual.
From what I can tell there is a big debate WITHIN govt as to what will happen in the summer. Some SAGE pessimists are predicting a 4th wave nearly as bad as January. To me that seems highly unlikely because vaccines. But these people are boffins so we can’t completely dismiss them
The confusion on vaxports probably stems from this fierce internal HMG debate between the vaccine optimists and the 4th wave pessimists
Those sage pessimists put efficacy of 32% for a single dose and 62% for two doses into their model. We know actual observed efficacy of a single dose of either Pfizer or AZ is 80% and for two doses it's over 99% for AZ and over 99.9% for Pfizer on the cumulative hospitalisations measure.
Who is the fourth wave going to present itself in?
Yes, he should have invented his own advice like a Proper Politician rather than hiding behind medical decisions of the national regulator.
WOW that really is funny,
Correct me if I'm wrong but if Boris had done a Ron de Santis and told the scientists where to go at any stage over the past year, I reckon I would still have been able to hear your voice over the more general screeching about recklessness, following the science, people dying, lockdown harder, isn;t Italy great, isn;t Belgium wonderful etc.
Boris did. Remember last summer he refused to do a circuit break in September. Right decision.
Surely the answer to the vaxport issue is to enable them, but wherever they are used, give people the legal alternative of a covid test?
If you haven’t had the vax but you ALSO refuse a test, well then that’s tough, you can’t go anywhere
Or just chuck social distancing into the bin from June 21st and be done with it. The government is imposing these restrictions, not the venues.
This, at least, is one argument that will be settled. I tend to agree with you that the SAGE pessimists are wrong. There won’t a be a 4th wave ‘like January’ (unless we are hideously unlucky with another mutation)
By late June it should be obvious if Covid has fizzled out, as it seems to be doing in Israel (and, increasingly, the UK)
If that’s the case then we can get rid of everything, from masks to hand San.
If, however, the SAGE gloomsters are right, then we will probably need vaxports everywhere. They will be the only way to alleviate the social and economic horrors of another lockdown
The sage pessimists are already wrong. They're putting in unnecessarily pessimistic inputs into their model to achieve their goal of scaring unwitting rubes into believing vaccine passports are a necessary evil. This was the same idiotic team that predicted a peak of 4k deaths per day (with a lockdown) by simply inputting unrealistic R values into their model.
They have an agenda, they will do whatever it takes to push it, this time they are downgrading the vaccine efficacy from 80% for a single dose and over 99% for two doses to 32% for a single dose and 62% for two doses.
There is no reason to do that. Literally, no reason. They are doing it so SAGE and these other public health bodies can hold onto this enormous power they have over the public at large.
In the early days last year, the pessimists were right because they were just going on numbers and weren't distracted by analogies with flu. Now that we have a much better understanding of covid along with real-world immunological data, it's no longer justified to take that approach.
There is likely a psychological bias towards pessimism, as well. Throughout the pandemic the pessimists and lockdowners have generally been right. Remember when we thought ‘20,000 deaths would be quite good’ - now we have 150,000. Likewise, Boris was told, by the pessimists, to lock down immediately or else. He didn’t. Here we are.
Opening up too early, in the hope the plague is dying out, has usually been the route to disaster, locking down more severely always looks better (unless you actually worry about debt). Pessimism pays. Optimism is risky.
That's a very important point underlying the (now arguably irrationally fearful) psychology of many people. Every single time during this pandemic that a country has erred on the side of optimism, the disease has come roaring back and kicked them in the teeth.
The vaccines will change that, and Israel should become the real-life laboratory that convinces the general public that it's safe to come out of our caves. But I don't blame people for not instantly losing their learned aversion to sticking their hand in the fire, even once you give them a glove and assure them that it's flame-resistant.
No, we can’t allow theatres, concert halls and nightclubs to reopen. They must remain CLOSED so that we can all be FREE
But they're imposing the social distancing rules making them uneconomic. It's a completelg circular argument. They're making it impossible for these venues to operate normally and then saying that the vaccine passport is the way out of it, not just junking the social distancing rules. It's the government regulations on social distancing that need to be binned forever.
It depends what the bug does, dunnit?
If by June we are down to near zero covid (we will never hit zero) with no pressure on the NHS, cases minimal, a few deaths a day, then of course we must open up. Everything. I will burn my masks in a fearsome ritual.
From what I can tell there is a big debate WITHIN govt as to what will happen in the summer. Some SAGE pessimists are predicting a 4th wave nearly as bad as January. To me that seems highly unlikely because vaccines. But these people are boffins so we can’t completely dismiss them
The confusion on vaxports probably stems from this fierce internal HMG debate between the vaccine optimists and the 4th wave pessimists
Those sage pessimists put efficacy of 32% for a single dose and 62% for two doses into their model. We know actual observed efficacy of a single dose of either Pfizer or AZ is 80% and for two doses it's over 99% for AZ and over 99.9% for Pfizer on the cumulative hospitalisations measure.
Who is the fourth wave going to present itself in?
If we're patient for another month, then probably not.
Chile is quite a bit behind us in vaccination coverage.
You can see the vaccine effect in Chile, cases amongst the oldest cohorts are decreasing. The big surge is coming from the younger, unvaccinated people.
I think there's a role for pessimistic advice. I'm not going to damn SAGE for sounding a note of caution. We'd have done better in 2020 if we listened to the pessimists more than we did.
But the situation has changed. Waiting for the vaccines was my justification for enduring lockdown, for not taking my chances with infection. The vaccines genuinely make Covid not as bad as the flu.
The government should be able to make the right judgement on the basis of the variety of advice they are offered. They made the wrong choice last autumn, and listened to Gupta, et al. Now they're making the wrong choice and erring on the side of pessimism.
For the EU to overtake the UK (and wouldn't it be good if they did), the UK would have to become the sleeping hare.
I think it is fairly clear that the "base" assumption is that for much of this month, we are going to be vaccinating mostly 2nd doses. This is level that has supplies already in the pipeline etc.
Any additional supplies (India, J&J, Moderna) are not being taken, I think, as "good news when they have actually happened".
As for Europe - well, they would have to accelerate a great deal to catch up. I hope they will. The other issue is that it then takes time for the protection to get to full strength. What this means, is that even with 1% per day vaccination rates, it will take a couple of months for Europe to get to where we are.
The sage pessimists are already wrong. They're putting in unnecessarily pessimistic inputs into their model to achieve their goal of scaring unwitting rubes into believing vaccine passports are a necessary evil. This was the same idiotic team that predicted a peak of 4k deaths per day (with a lockdown) by simply inputting unrealistic R values into their model.
They have an agenda, they will do whatever it takes to push it, this time they are downgrading the vaccine efficacy from 80% for a single dose and over 99% for two doses to 32% for a single dose and 62% for two doses.
There is no reason to do that. Literally, no reason. They are doing it so SAGE and these other public health bodies can hold onto this enormous power they have over the public at large.
You are being very silly. Of course they're not trying 'to achieve their goal of scaring unwitting rubes into believing vaccine passports are a necessary evil'. For heaven's sake, get a grip!
On the substantive point, yes I agree their assumptions look over-cautious, provided that we don't get hit by vaccine-resistant variants. However, isn't the efficacy they've assumed that which refers to whether a vaccinated person can infect someone else? You are quoting the efficacy on symptomatic cases, which is potentially a very different number. There's not much data on the former.
Now that the idea SAGE has an agenda is mainstream (Iain Duncan Smith today saying exactly as Max is arguing), the specious bullsgh8t that some are peddling on here is thankfully getting challenged more widely.
It isn't just debatable that SAGE has an agenda. Its bloody obvious.
No, we can’t allow theatres, concert halls and nightclubs to reopen. They must remain CLOSED so that we can all be FREE
Much more worrying is the "if social distancing has to stay beyond June 21st".
On June 21st all restrictions end, right?
I don't believe a word this government says on anything.
It is extremely sad that we know, as we did over the past year when govt ministers were sent out to do the morning radios that anything they said was not going to happen was going to happen and vice versa, we are in a place today where the government's duplicity is not even a cause for comment.
It actually makes most sense to vote for the Unionist party closest to the SNP on the constituency vote in 2016, then vote for your preferred party, including Galloway's, on the list
The sage pessimists are already wrong. They're putting in unnecessarily pessimistic inputs into their model to achieve their goal of scaring unwitting rubes into believing vaccine passports are a necessary evil. This was the same idiotic team that predicted a peak of 4k deaths per day (with a lockdown) by simply inputting unrealistic R values into their model.
They have an agenda, they will do whatever it takes to push it, this time they are downgrading the vaccine efficacy from 80% for a single dose and over 99% for two doses to 32% for a single dose and 62% for two doses.
There is no reason to do that. Literally, no reason. They are doing it so SAGE and these other public health bodies can hold onto this enormous power they have over the public at large.
You are being very silly. Of course they're not trying 'to achieve their goal of scaring unwitting rubes into believing vaccine passports are a necessary evil'. For heaven's sake, get a grip!
On the substantive point, yes I agree their assumptions look over-cautious, provided that we don't get hit by vaccine-resistant variants. However, isn't the efficacy they've assumed that which refers to whether a vaccinated person can infect someone else? You are quoting the efficacy on symptomatic cases, which is potentially a very different number. There's not much data on the former.
Now that the idea SAGE has an agenda is mainstream (Iain Duncan Smith today saying exactly as Max is arguing), the specious bullsgh8t that some are peddling on here is thankfully getting challenged more widely.
It isn't just debatable that SAGE has an agenda. Its bloody obvious.
Yes. Its agenda is to stop people getting ill and dying. As any doctor would. They may be making some errors in getting there but they are human beings too who want, one day, to be able to go on holiday etc again.
Having looked at the Hartlepool tables, there's only 2 real conclusions that you can take out.
1. Among BXP likely to vote (a tiny 13 unweighted), 60% to Con, 30% undecided, 0% to Lab means that it's likely that Con will harvest more of the BXP vote than Labour will.
2. SKS isn't very popular among any group.
Point 1 is the big one, BXP may have been the gateway drug, and while it's hard to draw conclusions from 13(!) likely to vote people, the sheer tilt towards the Cons indicates that those never Tories are at least sometimes Tories now. Good news for the incumbent Tees Valley Mayor.
The Tees Valley Mayor didn't need the Good News of a Pools by-election - he was walking to a big victory anyway. A combination of a politician who actually over-delivers, a well-resourced and professional media operation, then Unite imposing a Labour candidate so bad that most activists refuse to work for her meant that he was going to win big regardless.
Which may or may not be good news for him. Due to Osborne, the Tees Valley Mayor gets paid an absurd £35k. Which has to mean that young Ben is being supported by the benevolence of others. Potential for financial scandal if they get that wrong - why not simply pay him a sensible salary like the other mayors?
That salary is for a full-time, executive position, or does he cut ribbons and chair meetings two days a week? I’d expect a directly elected mayor to be full time, in which case the salary should be more in line with that of an MP.
Full time non-executive. The role was created by Osborne for an expected Labour win. Give it minimal power and salary. Then the Tories won and after a slow start young Ben does a whole pile of stuff that is entirely without his remit but he drives anyway.
For the EU to overtake the UK (and wouldn't it be good if they did), the UK would have to become the sleeping hare.
I think it is fairly clear that the "base" assumption is that for much of this month, we are going to be vaccinating mostly 2nd doses. This is level that has supplies already in the pipeline etc.
Any additional supplies (India, J&J, Moderna) are not being taken, I think, as "good news when they have actually happened".
As for Europe - well, they would have to accelerate a great deal to catch up. I hope they will. The other issue is that it then takes time for the protection to get to full strength. What this means, is that even with 1% per day vaccination rates, it will take a couple of months for Europe to get to where we are.
Hence my comment that the article implicitly assumes that we basically stop vaccinating.
Having looked at the Hartlepool tables, there's only 2 real conclusions that you can take out.
1. Among BXP likely to vote (a tiny 13 unweighted), 60% to Con, 30% undecided, 0% to Lab means that it's likely that Con will harvest more of the BXP vote than Labour will.
2. SKS isn't very popular among any group.
Point 1 is the big one, BXP may have been the gateway drug, and while it's hard to draw conclusions from 13(!) likely to vote people, the sheer tilt towards the Cons indicates that those never Tories are at least sometimes Tories now. Good news for the incumbent Tees Valley Mayor.
The Tees Valley Mayor didn't need the Good News of a Pools by-election - he was walking to a big victory anyway. A combination of a politician who actually over-delivers, a well-resourced and professional media operation, then Unite imposing a Labour candidate so bad that most activists refuse to work for her meant that he was going to win big regardless.
Which may or may not be good news for him. Due to Osborne, the Tees Valley Mayor gets paid an absurd £35k. Which has to mean that young Ben is being supported by the benevolence of others. Potential for financial scandal if they get that wrong - why not simply pay him a sensible salary like the other mayors?
That salary is for a full-time, executive position, or does he cut ribbons and chair meetings two days a week? I’d expect a directly elected mayor to be full time, in which case the salary should be more in line with that of an MP.
Full time non-executive. The role was created by Osborne for an expected Labour win. Give it minimal power and salary. Then the Tories won and after a slow start young Ben does a whole pile of stuff that is entirely without his remit but he drives anyway.
Yes, he should have invented his own advice like a Proper Politician rather than hiding behind medical decisions of the national regulator.
WOW that really is funny,
Correct me if I'm wrong but if Boris had done a Ron de Santis and told the scientists where to go at any stage over the past year, I reckon I would still have been able to hear your voice over the more general screeching about recklessness, following the science, people dying, lockdown harder, isn;t Italy great, isn;t Belgium wonderful etc.
Every man is an island, etc. It is sad but understandable that people (here on PB and more broadly) are very happy with any and every illiberal measure and only get upset or angry when their own red lines are crossed.
Daily figures really don't matter, especially at weekends. If we have limited numbers of vaccines compared to capacity, it is actually better that they are done on fewer days, so the medics involved can do more of their normal non vaccine work.
Surely the answer to the vaxport issue is to enable them, but wherever they are used, give people the legal alternative of a covid test?
If you haven’t had the vax but you ALSO refuse a test, well then that’s tough, you can’t go anywhere
Or just chuck social distancing into the bin from June 21st and be done with it. The government is imposing these restrictions, not the venues.
This, at least, is one argument that will be settled. I tend to agree with you that the SAGE pessimists are wrong. There won’t a be a 4th wave ‘like January’ (unless we are hideously unlucky with another mutation)
By late June it should be obvious if Covid has fizzled out, as it seems to be doing in Israel (and, increasingly, the UK)
If that’s the case then we can get rid of everything, from masks to hand San.
If, however, the SAGE gloomsters are right, then we will probably need vaxports everywhere. They will be the only way to alleviate the social and economic horrors of another lockdown
The sage pessimists are already wrong. They're putting in unnecessarily pessimistic inputs into their model to achieve their goal of scaring unwitting rubes into believing vaccine passports are a necessary evil. This was the same idiotic team that predicted a peak of 4k deaths per day (with a lockdown) by simply inputting unrealistic R values into their model.
They have an agenda, they will do whatever it takes to push it, this time they are downgrading the vaccine efficacy from 80% for a single dose and over 99% for two doses to 32% for a single dose and 62% for two doses.
There is no reason to do that. Literally, no reason. They are doing it so SAGE and these other public health bodies can hold onto this enormous power they have over the public at large.
I will say it again.
We seem to have come a long way from the generally accepted notion on here that the government and SAGE 'do not want to keep us in lockdown a minute longer that necessary'
When I suggested SAGE had an agenda that was nothing to do with combatting the virus back in January, poster after poster lined up to call me anti-vaxxer, conspiracy theorist etc etc etc. and those were the polite descriptions.
You are.
SAGE aren't the government, they're advisors. The government has no interest or incentive in keeping us locked down a day more than needed. Its not good for the economy and its not good for winning votes.
Daily figures really don't matter, especially at weekends. If we have limited numbers of vaccines compared to capacity, it is actually better that they are done on fewer days, so the medics involved can do more of their normal non vaccine work.
Daily figures matter to me. When they are good they gave me a little fillip. When they are bad, like today, I sigh.
Easter Sunday and Bank Holiday Monday effect. Entirely predictable.
Figures will get back to normal by Thursday.
I hope you’re right. You were certainly right to question this giddy optimism earlier today
Pulpstar said: I reckon about 200k second and 50k first doses reporting today.
2nd doses HAVE to go into arms at an average of more than 300k till the 22nd April, and then the figure ups. 50k is more of a guess on first doses and is the important figure wrt speed of the process overall.
The sage pessimists are already wrong. They're putting in unnecessarily pessimistic inputs into their model to achieve their goal of scaring unwitting rubes into believing vaccine passports are a necessary evil. This was the same idiotic team that predicted a peak of 4k deaths per day (with a lockdown) by simply inputting unrealistic R values into their model.
They have an agenda, they will do whatever it takes to push it, this time they are downgrading the vaccine efficacy from 80% for a single dose and over 99% for two doses to 32% for a single dose and 62% for two doses.
There is no reason to do that. Literally, no reason. They are doing it so SAGE and these other public health bodies can hold onto this enormous power they have over the public at large.
You are being very silly. Of course they're not trying 'to achieve their goal of scaring unwitting rubes into believing vaccine passports are a necessary evil'. For heaven's sake, get a grip!
On the substantive point, yes I agree their assumptions look over-cautious, provided that we don't get hit by vaccine-resistant variants. However, isn't the efficacy they've assumed that which refers to whether a vaccinated person can infect someone else? You are quoting the efficacy on symptomatic cases, which is potentially a very different number. There's not much data on the former.
I think even for infection and infectiousness rates, at least for the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, the model is way too cautious. The last study I saw from the US implied that these two vaccines produce much higher levels against infection (90% after 2 shots, 80-85%% for a single dose of Pfizer), and almost 100% against infectiousness.
Having looked at the Hartlepool tables, there's only 2 real conclusions that you can take out.
1. Among BXP likely to vote (a tiny 13 unweighted), 60% to Con, 30% undecided, 0% to Lab means that it's likely that Con will harvest more of the BXP vote than Labour will.
2. SKS isn't very popular among any group.
Point 1 is the big one, BXP may have been the gateway drug, and while it's hard to draw conclusions from 13(!) likely to vote people, the sheer tilt towards the Cons indicates that those never Tories are at least sometimes Tories now. Good news for the incumbent Tees Valley Mayor.
The Tees Valley Mayor didn't need the Good News of a Pools by-election - he was walking to a big victory anyway. A combination of a politician who actually over-delivers, a well-resourced and professional media operation, then Unite imposing a Labour candidate so bad that most activists refuse to work for her meant that he was going to win big regardless.
Which may or may not be good news for him. Due to Osborne, the Tees Valley Mayor gets paid an absurd £35k. Which has to mean that young Ben is being supported by the benevolence of others. Potential for financial scandal if they get that wrong - why not simply pay him a sensible salary like the other mayors?
That salary is for a full-time, executive position, or does he cut ribbons and chair meetings two days a week? I’d expect a directly elected mayor to be full time, in which case the salary should be more in line with that of an MP.
Full time non-executive. The role was created by Osborne for an expected Labour win. Give it minimal power and salary. Then the Tories won and after a slow start young Ben does a whole pile of stuff that is entirely without his remit but he drives anyway.
Daily figures really don't matter, especially at weekends. If we have limited numbers of vaccines compared to capacity, it is actually better that they are done on fewer days, so the medics involved can do more of their normal non vaccine work.
Daily figures matter to me. When they are good they gave me a little fillip. When they are bad, like today, I sigh.
Did you inform SAGE of this matter of great import? They might just have omitted it from their model, it is a pandemic after all so they didn't have time for such detail.
Yes, he should have invented his own advice like a Proper Politician rather than hiding behind medical decisions of the national regulator.
WOW that really is funny,
Correct me if I'm wrong but if Boris had done a Ron de Santis and told the scientists where to go at any stage over the past year, I reckon I would still have been able to hear your voice over the more general screeching about recklessness, following the science, people dying, lockdown harder, isn;t Italy great, isn;t Belgium wonderful etc.
Every man is an island, etc. It is sad but understandable that people (here on PB and more broadly) are very happy with any and every illiberal measure and only get upset or angry when their own red lines are crossed.
What's sad to me is that so few people can recognise illiberal developments when they occur. Ignorance about how oppression starts, how it spreads and how it works is almost total.
Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc
We're seriously still doing the whinge that calling him Boris either makes no sense or is unfair (as some claim)?! Like there's some cast iron rule that PMs are only ever referred to by their last name?
Of all the many pedantic gripes political wonks obsess over, I find this one to be probably the most bizarre.
He's known, politically, as Boris. He just is. No, not everyone will use it, but many will, and tying ourselves in mental knots to avoid it or get others to not know him as such is pointless and silly. Why do people throw strops over the fact Boris often goes by Boris? As with so much to do with Boris, it's really not worth it.
And for what it is worth I do generally refer to Starmer as Keir.
Easter Sunday and Bank Holiday Monday effect. Entirely predictable.
Figures will get back to normal by Thursday.
Was told by the Centre for Life staff that they would be closed Good Friday and Easter Sunday. Not sure if they did or if that was the case elsewhere. I don't begrudge them this in the slightest, if so.
Yes, he should have invented his own advice like a Proper Politician rather than hiding behind medical decisions of the national regulator.
WOW that really is funny,
Correct me if I'm wrong but if Boris had done a Ron de Santis and told the scientists where to go at any stage over the past year, I reckon I would still have been able to hear your voice over the more general screeching about recklessness, following the science, people dying, lockdown harder, isn;t Italy great, isn;t Belgium wonderful etc.
Every man is an island, etc. It is sad but understandable that people (here on PB and more broadly) are very happy with any and every illiberal measure and only get upset or angry when their own red lines are crossed.
We all have our red lines, and not just on this issue. I gave up on the idea that we lived in a genuinely liberal society once we accepted without a murmur that people could be sent to prison for speech crimes like posting the wrong thing on Twitter. Ever since the nation failed to rise up en masse against that kind of authoritarianism, most other measures just merit a shrug from me.
While BoZo basks in the success of the British Vaccine, there must be some element of risk in being so closely associated with the only vaccine that is being shunned by the rest of the World
Such a revealing post, Scott.
Yes the underlying nastiness of it reveals one sick poster!
The sage pessimists are already wrong. They're putting in unnecessarily pessimistic inputs into their model to achieve their goal of scaring unwitting rubes into believing vaccine passports are a necessary evil. This was the same idiotic team that predicted a peak of 4k deaths per day (with a lockdown) by simply inputting unrealistic R values into their model.
They have an agenda, they will do whatever it takes to push it, this time they are downgrading the vaccine efficacy from 80% for a single dose and over 99% for two doses to 32% for a single dose and 62% for two doses.
There is no reason to do that. Literally, no reason. They are doing it so SAGE and these other public health bodies can hold onto this enormous power they have over the public at large.
You are being very silly. Of course they're not trying 'to achieve their goal of scaring unwitting rubes into believing vaccine passports are a necessary evil'. For heaven's sake, get a grip!
On the substantive point, yes I agree their assumptions look over-cautious, provided that we don't get hit by vaccine-resistant variants. However, isn't the efficacy they've assumed that which refers to whether a vaccinated person can infect someone else? You are quoting the efficacy on symptomatic cases, which is potentially a very different number. There's not much data on the former.
Over cautious is a huge understatement. It's simply wrong. Their model is trying to forwards project the hospitalisation rate and they've used incorrect values on hospitalisation efficacy of the two main vaccines in use in this country. They've adjusted their inputs to try and get the outcome they wanted, I see data modellers do it all the time and it's always bad practice. They want to tell a certain story and now that the data no longer helps them tell it they've simply changed the data.
Again, I'll put it quite simply, does it matter if 1m people per day get infected if only 100 of those end up in hospital? Even at the top end of any projection we're looking at maybe 50k infections per day, with the known efficacy of two doses for over 50s even if all 50k were in those more vulnerable groups we're looking at 10 hospitalisations per day from vaccinated people.
You're being incredibly naïve if you truly believe that these now all powerful scientists and public health people will willingly give up all of these interesting new tools they have at their disposal. They are trying to browbeat the public and politicians into giving them a permanent say in how we live with doom mongering data models that only a very small number of people will understand.
Calling Johnson "Boris" of course is also ridiculous. He is Johnson, just as Theresa was May, Tony was Blair etc
He's Boris, its his name.
Just like in Blair's day he was often called Tony, in Cameron's day he was often called Dave, Sturgeon is often called Nicola. Trump was often called Donald, even Biden has sometimes been called Jo.
Starmer is sometimes called Keith.
It happens. We don't live in a prim and proper 19th century society when people can only use surnames.
Boris is a lot more recognisable. There's only one Boris (at least outside Russia). There are lots of Johnsons such as the former postman and ripper of Jon Lansman.
Daily figures really don't matter, especially at weekends. If we have limited numbers of vaccines compared to capacity, it is actually better that they are done on fewer days, so the medics involved can do more of their normal non vaccine work.
Daily figures matter to me. When they are good they gave me a little fillip. When they are bad, like today, I sigh.
Did you inform SAGE of this matter of great import? They might just have omitted it from their model, it is a pandemic after all so they didn't have time for such detail.
SAGE is well aware of my attitude and they have promised to do better.
The sage pessimists are already wrong. They're putting in unnecessarily pessimistic inputs into their model to achieve their goal of scaring unwitting rubes into believing vaccine passports are a necessary evil. This was the same idiotic team that predicted a peak of 4k deaths per day (with a lockdown) by simply inputting unrealistic R values into their model.
They have an agenda, they will do whatever it takes to push it, this time they are downgrading the vaccine efficacy from 80% for a single dose and over 99% for two doses to 32% for a single dose and 62% for two doses.
There is no reason to do that. Literally, no reason. They are doing it so SAGE and these other public health bodies can hold onto this enormous power they have over the public at large.
You are being very silly. Of course they're not trying 'to achieve their goal of scaring unwitting rubes into believing vaccine passports are a necessary evil'. For heaven's sake, get a grip!
On the substantive point, yes I agree their assumptions look over-cautious, provided that we don't get hit by vaccine-resistant variants. However, isn't the efficacy they've assumed that which refers to whether a vaccinated person can infect someone else? You are quoting the efficacy on symptomatic cases, which is potentially a very different number. There's not much data on the former.
Over cautious is a huge understatement. It's simply wrong. Their model is trying to forwards project the hospitalisation rate and they've used incorrect values on hospitalisation efficacy of the two main vaccines in use in this country. They've adjusted their inputs to try and get the outcome they wanted, I see data modellers do it all the time and it's always bad practice. They want to tell a certain story and now that the data no longer helps them tell it they've simply changed the data.
Again, I'll put it quite simply, does it matter if 1m people per day get infected if only 100 of those end up in hospital? Even at the top end of any projection we're looking at maybe 50k infections per day, with the known efficacy of two doses for over 50s even if all 50k were in those more vulnerable groups we're looking at 10 hospitalisations per day from vaccinated people.
You're being incredibly naïve if you truly believe that these now all powerful scientists and public health people will willingly give up all of these interesting new tools they have at their disposal. They are trying to browbeat the public and politicians into giving them a permanent say in how we live with doom mongering data models that only a very small number of people will understand.
Boris is a stage name, a character, played by the man also known as BoZo
Are you suggesting it's all a fraudulent enterprise? So rather than being a cheerful chaotic clown figure he is really a cold, calculating, self-serving narcissist.
Comments
I am going to make a bet on Labour gains in 2024 in Scotland.
By late June it should be obvious if Covid has fizzled out, as it seems to be doing in Israel (and, increasingly, the UK)
If that’s the case then we can get rid of everything, from masks to hand San.
If, however, the SAGE gloomsters are right, then we will probably need vaxports everywhere. They will be the only way to alleviate the social and economic horrors of another lockdown
This country loves a good football tournament, and it would be a great start to post-Covid life to be able to enjoy this summer's tournament without having to worry about the minutiae of Covid regulations.
The whole point of pushing forward the vaccination drive was to allow us to put Covid behind us earlier, but the government seem determined to squander its success.
Option 3 is a possibility but I suspect it's only a very slim (less than 5%) one.
You don't call Starmer "Keir".
Oh goody, are we back to re-weighting polls again?
However they are clearly one voice advising the government, amongst others; hence, I think, the government looking nervy and super cautious
They have an agenda, they will do whatever it takes to push it, this time they are downgrading the vaccine efficacy from 80% for a single dose and over 99% for two doses to 32% for a single dose and 62% for two doses.
There is no reason to do that. Literally, no reason. They are doing it so SAGE and these other public health bodies can hold onto this enormous power they have over the public at large.
https://twitter.com/tripperhead/status/1379391071554179081
Since we don't, you'll settle for us stopping calling Johnson "Boris".
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/3337288/#Comment_3337288 It is his name, get over it.
The only exception is when I am taking the piss out of people that call Johnson "Boris".
Boris = Johnson.
End of story. Get over it.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9440013/Moderna-jab-deployed-fortnight-minister-reveals-experts-Valnevas-vaccine.html
Unfortunately, for his opponents they are not going to be able to change that perception by insisting on calling him Johnson (who)
Many of us don't.
Friends and family call him Alex.
Boris is a stage name, a character, played by the man also known as BoZo
We seem to have come a long way from the generally accepted notion on here that the government and SAGE 'do not want to keep us in lockdown a minute longer that necessary'
When I suggested SAGE had an agenda that was nothing to do with combatting the virus back in January, poster after poster lined up to call me anti-vaxxer, conspiracy theorist etc etc etc. and those were the polite descriptions.
On the substantive point, yes I agree their assumptions look over-cautious, provided that we don't get hit by vaccine-resistant variants. However, isn't the efficacy they've assumed that which refers to whether a vaccinated person can infect someone else? You are quoting the efficacy on symptomatic cases, which is potentially a very different number. There's not much data on the former.
Opening up too early, in the hope the plague is dying out, has usually been the route to disaster, locking down more severely always looks better (unless you actually worry about debt). Pessimism pays. Optimism is risky.
SAGE aren't the government, they're advisors. The government has no interest or incentive in keeping us locked down a day more than needed. Its not good for the economy and its not good for winning votes.
https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2021/mar/28/chile-coronavirus-lockdowns-vaccination-success
If we're patient for another month, then probably not.
I hope they are PDQ, but I do not see that.
Correct me if I'm wrong but if Boris had done a Ron de Santis and told the scientists where to go at any stage over the past year, I reckon I would still have been able to hear your voice over the more general screeching about recklessness, following the science, people dying, lockdown harder, isn;t Italy great, isn;t Belgium wonderful etc.
I'll get my coat.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/06/modelling-data-support-accelerating-release-lockdown-not-delaying/
Seems the models being discussed are pessimistic wrt to inputs as mention by MaxPB.
That implies under 100k for the whole UK
The vaccines will change that, and Israel should become the real-life laboratory that convinces the general public that it's safe to come out of our caves. But I don't blame people for not instantly losing their learned aversion to sticking their hand in the fire, even once you give them a glove and assure them that it's flame-resistant.
But the situation has changed. Waiting for the vaccines was my justification for enduring lockdown, for not taking my chances with infection. The vaccines genuinely make Covid not as bad as the flu.
The government should be able to make the right judgement on the basis of the variety of advice they are offered. They made the wrong choice last autumn, and listened to Gupta, et al. Now they're making the wrong choice and erring on the side of pessimism.
Any additional supplies (India, J&J, Moderna) are not being taken, I think, as "good news when they have actually happened".
As for Europe - well, they would have to accelerate a great deal to catch up. I hope they will. The other issue is that it then takes time for the protection to get to full strength. What this means, is that even with 1% per day vaccination rates, it will take a couple of months for Europe to get to where we are.
It isn't just debatable that SAGE has an agenda. Its bloody obvious.
Figures will get back to normal by Thursday.
Tuesday 06-04-2021 2,820 / 1,568
Monday 05-04-2021 17,729 / 4,238
Sunday 04-04-2021 0 / 0
Saturday 03-04-2021 28,758 / 13,907
Friday 02-04-2021 0 / 0
Thursday 01-04-2021 16,702 / 11,601
https://www.gazettelive.co.uk/news/teesside-news/chance-tees-valley-mayors-special-13062441
Definitely worth a substantial boost
Pulpstar said:
I reckon about 200k second and 50k first doses reporting today.
Monday 05-04-2021 26,617 2nd 39,491
Sunday 04-04-2021 74,512 2nd 157,903
Saturday 03-04-2021 68,281 2nd 215,754
Friday 02-04-2021 122,410 2nd 411,998
Thursday 01-04-2021 188,045 2nd 341,748
Wednesday 31-03-2021 176,063 2nd 233,828
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-29/pfizer-moderna-vaccines-prevent-infections-in-real-world-study
Of all the many pedantic gripes political wonks obsess over, I find this one to be probably the most bizarre.
He's known, politically, as Boris. He just is. No, not everyone will use it, but many will, and tying ourselves in mental knots to avoid it or get others to not know him as such is pointless and silly. Why do people throw strops over the fact Boris often goes by Boris? As with so much to do with Boris, it's really not worth it.
And for what it is worth I do generally refer to Starmer as Keir.
I don't begrudge them this in the slightest, if so.
The anti-vaxxerss say:
"Chile is vaccinating with Sinovac and it doesn't work for them, that's why they are in lockdown"
However: ICU hospitalisations are in free fall in patients> 60 years old, prioritized in vaccination
First doses will pick up again from start May as the vaccine supply improves again.
We remain on track.
Again, I'll put it quite simply, does it matter if 1m people per day get infected if only 100 of those end up in hospital? Even at the top end of any projection we're looking at maybe 50k infections per day, with the known efficacy of two doses for over 50s even if all 50k were in those more vulnerable groups we're looking at 10 hospitalisations per day from vaccinated people.
You're being incredibly naïve if you truly believe that these now all powerful scientists and public health people will willingly give up all of these interesting new tools they have at their disposal. They are trying to browbeat the public and politicians into giving them a permanent say in how we live with doom mongering data models that only a very small number of people will understand.