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The Tories move to a 62% chance in the Hartlepool betting after a seat poll from Survation has the T
The Tories move to a 62% chance in the Hartlepool betting after a seat poll from Survation has the Tories 7% ahead – politicalbetting.com
The above chart shows the results of a Survation poll, commissioned by the Communications Workers Union, on the May 6th by election in Hartlepool. Like almost all single seat poll it has a small sample which increases the margin or error it was conducted over the phone.
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There does appear to be something of an over-reaction in the market, to a small-sample poll conducted by telephone over a long weekend.
Even if the Tories do somehow take it, the result will probably be lost in the noise of whatever else is happening that night - losing control of Wales and whatever happens in Scotland will be the bigger headlines.
Nailed on Tory gain. As I have been saying consistently from the moment the by-election was announced. I know the area, I know the politics, I know several of the candidates.
Tories are sweeping the board in this one. It isn't just Brexit, it's the long arrogant death-rattle of Labour in the NE and the absolute roll the Tories have been on there for the last few years.
There is no way the Tories can win 30+ seats, therefore there is no way Labour can lose control of Wales.
What’s possible, as I said the other day, is that they might come second. I’ve been doing some more number crunching and I come out with Labour 23 Tory 22 Plaid 13 with two seats on the lists still uncertain. But that prediction is made on the calculation that Labour hold three seats at this election that they lost in 2019. If the Brexit vote (a) turns out and (b) votes Tory that could change very dramatically.
My hot take is that the Labour selection was still a good call. This poll backs up Leave/Remain being a fading divide imho, with no hardcore remain or leave vote splintering off to other parties, in which case picking a doctor working on COVID vaccinations was as good optics as they could hope for.
I was assuming that they wouldn’t vote at all, now they’ve got what they wanted. Given the way it’s turning out they may still decide to not vote in future of course.
If Brexit is a roaring success, they will vote Tory in 2024 and deservedly so.
If Brexit is a complete shambles, they wont vote Tory in 2024 and deservedly so.
The next election depends largely on the performance of the govt, not the opposition. Panicking is about the worst thing Labour can do. Plod on and be ready to come in if the Tory vote collapses is their correct strategy, prosaic as it is.
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1379214032478015494?s=19
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1379214037112750081?s=19
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1379214041583869961?s=19
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1379214047846006785?s=19
https://youtu.be/j7p8hfaVz6E
Much harder to campaign in Blyth Valley if you also have to put resources into Wansbeck, Easington and the three Sunderland seats.
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1379316594619379712
https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1379312421739900928
And a beautiful morning it is too, lovely sunshine, calm sea, and barely a cloud in the sky. But only 1C.
Labour have a bunch of seats from 2019 move into the "tricky, require defending" column. Seats like Blaydon, Easington and Angela Rayner's Ashton-under-Lyne seat. Or become hyper-marginals - Bradford South for example.
If Labour has the campaign cash next time out to invest in say 100 target seats - where do they put it?
No Labour leader since WW2 has lost their 1st by election where they were incumbent.
Until now?
My only comment on this is that this is a phone poll so presumably done via landlines (identifiably local) rather than mobile phones which may bias the results but it confirms my view from the moment this election was announced - the Brexit vote has swung to the Tories and this will be reinforced as the mayoral election emphasises Ben Houchen's successes elsewhere in the region.
Labour needs to decide what it stands for and who it speaks to. The problem over the last few decades on areas like Teesside is it stood for and spoke to its own magnificence. Everything may be shit round here but that was all Thatcha, so don't blame us for doing Fuck All since then.
If however they would otherwise have voted Tory en bloc, then Labour were very lucky. They would have faced their most disastrous defeat since 1931.
So the unwind effect I was assuming would occur looks as though it won’t.
However, this is one poll with a significant MoE. Let’s see the results.
If it is for big events like festivals or mass sporting events only and after everyone has been offered the jab my opposition drops from the furious down to mild annoyance.
The government’s main problem on this is it’s setting up an unBrittish and illiberal policy without explaining in what basis it will be rescinded. If there was an automatic sunset clause when say 80% [pick a number] of over 18s had received two doses, I wouldn’t grumble. It’s this implicit undertone that once they’re implemented they’re never disappearing. Much as with masks.
Argh!
You don't pay off a deficit. That's an incorrect question. Boo and, if I may say so, hiss!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Brecon_and_Radnorshire_by-election
In retrospect, the Bulgars may have regretted earning his lasting enmity.
Illiterate pollster.
I think an automatic sunset clause would be quite clever, but I don't think that without one there is any reason to expect most COVID measures to have any staying power. I think they are widely seen as a response to a very specific situation.
REcumbent, more like.
Just seen the picture of Boris on the front page of the the Times, in the BBC's round-up of the papers.. He looks manic.
And how come if Jezza was shittier he never lost Hartlepool?
Vaccine passports, you see, are racist.
https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1378276188959997952
This poll is more than slightly suspect, with a small data set and the telephone angle no doubt making it difficult to get a balanced poll. We retain a landline for internet services but we very, very rarely even answer it these days as everyone we want to speak to calls on the mobiles. I suspect that is not unusual which means those answering landlines are likely to be older and possibly poorer than the average. I would not be inclined to give it much weight and this is not a criticism of Survation, its the reality that they have to deal with in a time of Covid.
As @Foxy has already pointed out the other questions are not exactly compatible with a Tory lead either. The responses are to the left of SKS, to the extent that he has a view at all.
Therefore, as soon as people think there is no point in wearing one, they will stop wearing one,and there is nothing that can be done about it.
Remember both RochdalePioneer and myself are locals and left leaning. Yet both of us have been clear from the beginning that this is a nailed on Tory win.
Can't see him being in favour of a large NHS pay award or Nationalising RM??
I also can't see the brexit vote breaking 80% to the Tories. I've been mulling this over for a while and Brexit / Refuk seem to have run their course, but surely people voted for them as a protest against the Tories and Labour. I don't think historically where they haven't stood that the vote has automatically gone to the Tories.
Another good example of a policy where the public are far more left-wing than you'd think is rent controls, which if memory serves is backed by a majority...of Tory voters...and about 80% of the public overall. Funnily enough, despite being rather left-wing myself on most issues I am one of the 20%.
ToriesLibDems want Paul Williams and Labour to win, and you the proper socialist want Labour to lose.You don't see the problem?
Anything else is going to look biased and would instantly fail on age discrimination grounds. Worse how can an establishment insist on their customers being vaccinated when their casual staff won't have been.
The idea of vaccine passports / certificates is flawed...
I hadn’t bothered to do that before because I simply didn’t think it was likely people who voted Brexit would otherwise have voted Tory. But if this poll is right, I was very wrong.
The Tories could have taken all kinds of unlikely seats on the night had BXP not deliberately split the vote to keep the Tories honest.
Conservative Katrina Sale 13,370
You should read to the end. Its much easier to do with Mike's headers than some of the contributions (many of which are very good).
Do I think we should do this? No. Do I understand why some are attracted to the idea? Yes.
Now I don't know local politics in the North East and they seem to have fallen out of love with Labour - but there is a loyalty to Labour, and it is all very well telling a pollster you will vote Tory, but going to the polling station and putting and X in a box for the evil Tories is surely a step beyond Ukip/Brexit
Even when not compulsory, their use will still be much more widespread than before the current pandemic.
The question though is how long the forest lasts, and what happens when it is finished? I reckon it will last until 2024, then quite a reckoning.
There is no party to vote for who wants sound money and a balanced budget. Voters who want these things are like the designated driver at a stag night.
That isn’t a delusion, David.