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The Tories move to a 62% chance in the Hartlepool betting after a seat poll from Survation has the T

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited April 6 in General
imageThe Tories move to a 62% chance in the Hartlepool betting after a seat poll from Survation has the Tories 7% ahead – politicalbetting.com

The above chart shows the results of a Survation poll, commissioned by the Communications Workers Union, on the May 6th by election in Hartlepool. Like almost all single seat poll it has a small sample which increases the margin or error it was conducted over the phone.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,560
    test
  • BournvilleBournville Posts: 98
    Second
  • MattWMattW Posts: 6,923
    Third
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 775
    Third like the LDs..... should be an interesting fight, my sense is that this will galvanise Labour's vote. I see that Cheryl Gillan's sad death has just created another byelection, this time a Tory hold
  • MattWMattW Posts: 6,923
    Bwahahah!
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,607
    I'm very sceptical of such polls - I guess it will be close on a low turnout. Probable Labour hold but ..'events dear boy, events'. Who knows?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,600
    Cant see it myself, put me in the ‘Labour hold by a couple of thousand, on a low turnout’ camp.

    There does appear to be something of an over-reaction in the market, to a small-sample poll conducted by telephone over a long weekend.

    Even if the Tories do somehow take it, the result will probably be lost in the noise of whatever else is happening that night - losing control of Wales and whatever happens in Scotland will be the bigger headlines.
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,607
    Further on by-elections it's true that Airdrie is an important test for both Sanwar and Starmer - Labour do need to win this one. A further thought on Hartlepool - is it as high on owner occupancy as many of the other 'Red Wall' gains? I suspect not but if it is that might explain a better Tory performance. It is all very interesting and I find myself a litle less sure of my feelings now than I was.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 775
    felix said:

    Further on by-elections it's true that Airdrie is an important test for both Sanwar and Starmer - Labour do need to win this one. A further thought on Hartlepool - is it as high on owner occupancy as many of the other 'Red Wall' gains? I suspect not but if it is that might explain a better Tory performance. It is all very interesting and I find myself a litle less sure of my feelings now than I was.

    it does seem labour have most to lose.... they need to win Hartlepool, need to do v well in Aiirdrie and ideally leave LDs 3rd in Amersham - anything less a bad set of results. for KS....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,172
    SNP will hold Airdrie
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,790
    edited April 6
    Peter Mandleson must be having an apoplectic fit!
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 9,508
    felix said:

    I'm very sceptical of such polls - I guess it will be close on a low turnout. Probable Labour hold but ..'events dear boy, events'. Who knows?

    As I keep pointing out this isn't just a by-election, it is Super Thursday. People are out to vote for their council, the metro Mayor, the PCC and their MP. Turnout will be very healthy.

    Nailed on Tory gain. As I have been saying consistently from the moment the by-election was announced. I know the area, I know the politics, I know several of the candidates.

    Tories are sweeping the board in this one. It isn't just Brexit, it's the long arrogant death-rattle of Labour in the NE and the absolute roll the Tories have been on there for the last few years.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    edited April 6
    Sandpit said:

    Cant see it myself, put me in the ‘Labour hold by a couple of thousand, on a low turnout’ camp.

    There does appear to be something of an over-reaction in the market, to a small-sample poll conducted by telephone over a long weekend.

    Even if the Tories do somehow take it, the result will probably be lost in the noise of whatever else is happening that night - losing control of Wales and whatever happens in Scotland will be the bigger headlines.

    Labour will not lose control of Wales unless the Tories win 30+ seats.

    There is no way the Tories can win 30+ seats, therefore there is no way Labour can lose control of Wales.

    What’s possible, as I said the other day, is that they might come second. I’ve been doing some more number crunching and I come out with Labour 23 Tory 22 Plaid 13 with two seats on the lists still uncertain. But that prediction is made on the calculation that Labour hold three seats at this election that they lost in 2019. If the Brexit vote (a) turns out and (b) votes Tory that could change very dramatically.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,387
    Mildly surprised to see it this much of a two horse race, with former Labour MPs and Ref UK all down at 1-2%. But the headline figure is roughly where I guessed last night. The national Tory lead is back to high single digits, so barely down on 2019, and the RefUK vote has good reason to break strongly to the Tories.

    My hot take is that the Labour selection was still a good call. This poll backs up Leave/Remain being a fading divide imho, with no hardcore remain or leave vote splintering off to other parties, in which case picking a doctor working on COVID vaccinations was as good optics as they could hope for.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,776

    Peter Mandleson must be having an apoplectic fit!

    Nah - he's a fighter, not a quitter.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,387
    As a side note: Some people last night were suggesting the LDs will focus on Amersham and Chesham. Is there time to hold it on the same day? If it is more than a week or two after I'd have thought the party could put resources into both, even if Hartlepool is hardly a priority target.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    felix said:

    I'm very sceptical of such polls - I guess it will be close on a low turnout. Probable Labour hold but ..'events dear boy, events'. Who knows?

    As I keep pointing out this isn't just a by-election, it is Super Thursday. People are out to vote for their council, the metro Mayor, the PCC and their MP. Turnout will be very healthy.

    Nailed on Tory gain. As I have been saying consistently from the moment the by-election was announced. I know the area, I know the politics, I know several of the candidates.

    Tories are sweeping the board in this one. It isn't just Brexit, it's the long arrogant death-rattle of Labour in the NE and the absolute roll the Tories have been on there for the last few years.
    If Brexit Party voters from 2019 turn to the Tories Labour should be panicking right now, and not just in the North East. Adding Brexit voters to Tory columns costs Labour, on a conservative estimate, about 40 seats. It would have added five in Wales alone and makes another six very marginal.

    I was assuming that they wouldn’t vote at all, now they’ve got what they wanted. Given the way it’s turning out they may still decide to not vote in future of course.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 22,750

    felix said:

    I'm very sceptical of such polls - I guess it will be close on a low turnout. Probable Labour hold but ..'events dear boy, events'. Who knows?

    As I keep pointing out this isn't just a by-election, it is Super Thursday. People are out to vote for their council, the metro Mayor, the PCC and their MP. Turnout will be very healthy.

    Nailed on Tory gain. As I have been saying consistently from the moment the by-election was announced. I know the area, I know the politics, I know several of the candidates.

    Tories are sweeping the board in this one. It isn't just Brexit, it's the long arrogant death-rattle of Labour in the NE and the absolute roll the Tories have been on there for the last few years.
    I have been on the Tories too. Starmer has badly mishandled the whole thing.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,790

    Peter Mandleson must be having an apoplectic fit!

    Nah - he's a fighter, not a quitter.
    Really.. what have you heard from Mandleson since 2010... bugger all...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,776
    Quincel said:

    Mildly surprised to see it this much of a two horse race, with former Labour MPs and Ref UK all down at 1-2%. But the headline figure is roughly where I guessed last night. The national Tory lead is back to high single digits, so barely down on 2019, and the RefUK vote has good reason to break strongly to the Tories.

    My hot take is that the Labour selection was still a good call. This poll backs up Leave/Remain being a fading divide imho, with no hardcore remain or leave vote splintering off to other parties, in which case picking a doctor working on COVID vaccinations was as good optics as they could hope for.

    But a doctor working on Covid vaccinations is just reminding Hartlepool voters "Hey, Boris did Brexit AND oversaw that vaccination campaign. Legend...."
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 9,291
    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    I'm very sceptical of such polls - I guess it will be close on a low turnout. Probable Labour hold but ..'events dear boy, events'. Who knows?

    As I keep pointing out this isn't just a by-election, it is Super Thursday. People are out to vote for their council, the metro Mayor, the PCC and their MP. Turnout will be very healthy.

    Nailed on Tory gain. As I have been saying consistently from the moment the by-election was announced. I know the area, I know the politics, I know several of the candidates.

    Tories are sweeping the board in this one. It isn't just Brexit, it's the long arrogant death-rattle of Labour in the NE and the absolute roll the Tories have been on there for the last few years.
    If Brexit Party voters from 2019 turn to the Tories Labour should be panicking right now, and not just in the North East. Adding Brexit voters to Tory columns costs Labour, on a conservative estimate, about 40 seats. It would have added five in Wales alone and makes another six very marginal.

    I was assuming that they wouldn’t vote at all, now they’ve got what they wanted. Given the way it’s turning out they may still decide to not vote in future of course.
    Panicking is pointless. What Brexit party voters do in 2021 and 2024 are very likely different things.

    If Brexit is a roaring success, they will vote Tory in 2024 and deservedly so.
    If Brexit is a complete shambles, they wont vote Tory in 2024 and deservedly so.

    The next election depends largely on the performance of the govt, not the opposition. Panicking is about the worst thing Labour can do. Plod on and be ready to come in if the Tory vote collapses is their correct strategy, prosaic as it is.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,172
    A classic Hartlepool moment
    https://youtu.be/j7p8hfaVz6E
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    I'm very sceptical of such polls - I guess it will be close on a low turnout. Probable Labour hold but ..'events dear boy, events'. Who knows?

    As I keep pointing out this isn't just a by-election, it is Super Thursday. People are out to vote for their council, the metro Mayor, the PCC and their MP. Turnout will be very healthy.

    Nailed on Tory gain. As I have been saying consistently from the moment the by-election was announced. I know the area, I know the politics, I know several of the candidates.

    Tories are sweeping the board in this one. It isn't just Brexit, it's the long arrogant death-rattle of Labour in the NE and the absolute roll the Tories have been on there for the last few years.
    If Brexit Party voters from 2019 turn to the Tories Labour should be panicking right now, and not just in the North East. Adding Brexit voters to Tory columns costs Labour, on a conservative estimate, about 40 seats. It would have added five in Wales alone and makes another six very marginal.

    I was assuming that they wouldn’t vote at all, now they’ve got what they wanted. Given the way it’s turning out they may still decide to not vote in future of course.
    Panicking is pointless. What Brexit party voters do in 2021 and 2024 are very likely different things.

    If Brexit is a roaring success, they will vote Tory in 2024 and deservedly so.
    If Brexit is a complete shambles, they wont vote Tory in 2024 and deservedly so.

    The next election depends largely on the performance of the govt, not the opposition. Panicking is about the worst thing Labour can do. Plod on and be ready to come in if the Tory vote collapses is their correct strategy, prosaic as it is.
    The problem being if they are even willing to consider voting Tory Labour will have to act defensively to hold on to those seats they have. Which will make it much harder to go on the attack in those seats they need to win back.

    Much harder to campaign in Blyth Valley if you also have to put resources into Wansbeck, Easington and the three Sunderland seats.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,387

    Quincel said:

    Mildly surprised to see it this much of a two horse race, with former Labour MPs and Ref UK all down at 1-2%. But the headline figure is roughly where I guessed last night. The national Tory lead is back to high single digits, so barely down on 2019, and the RefUK vote has good reason to break strongly to the Tories.

    My hot take is that the Labour selection was still a good call. This poll backs up Leave/Remain being a fading divide imho, with no hardcore remain or leave vote splintering off to other parties, in which case picking a doctor working on COVID vaccinations was as good optics as they could hope for.

    But a doctor working on Covid vaccinations is just reminding Hartlepool voters "Hey, Boris did Brexit AND oversaw that vaccination campaign. Legend...."
    I'm not sure Labour could choose a candidate who would make another issue prominent, COVID is the issue of the day and it will be for the next month or more. At least they can try and get some of the warm fuzzies shared with their candidate.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,790
    Labour have nothing to say.. where are the policies to help them win???They don't even have a charismatic leader.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 12,698
    Tory chances probably rest on how badly they screw up the vaccine passports

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1379316594619379712

    https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1379312421739900928
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 9,291

    Labour have nothing to say.. where are the policies to help them win???They don't even have a charismatic leader.

    If only we could perhaps analyse historic personality ratings and election results this thread might go somewhere new.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,962
    Happy New Tax Year, everyone.

    And a beautiful morning it is too, lovely sunshine, calm sea, and barely a cloud in the sky. But only 1C.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 39,776
    edited April 6
    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    I'm very sceptical of such polls - I guess it will be close on a low turnout. Probable Labour hold but ..'events dear boy, events'. Who knows?

    As I keep pointing out this isn't just a by-election, it is Super Thursday. People are out to vote for their council, the metro Mayor, the PCC and their MP. Turnout will be very healthy.

    Nailed on Tory gain. As I have been saying consistently from the moment the by-election was announced. I know the area, I know the politics, I know several of the candidates.

    Tories are sweeping the board in this one. It isn't just Brexit, it's the long arrogant death-rattle of Labour in the NE and the absolute roll the Tories have been on there for the last few years.
    If Brexit Party voters from 2019 turn to the Tories Labour should be panicking right now, and not just in the North East. Adding Brexit voters to Tory columns costs Labour, on a conservative estimate, about 40 seats. It would have added five in Wales alone and makes another six very marginal.

    I was assuming that they wouldn’t vote at all, now they’ve got what they wanted. Given the way it’s turning out they may still decide to not vote in future of course.
    Tories picking up 4 out of 5 Brexit voters (as this poll suggests) also shifts many Tory MPs from marginal to much, much trickier for Labour. For example, if anyone thought Bolsover was a crazy seat for the Tories to win, they would be over 50% with 4/5 of the 2019 Brexit vote.

    Labour have a bunch of seats from 2019 move into the "tricky, require defending" column. Seats like Blaydon, Easington and Angela Rayner's Ashton-under-Lyne seat. Or become hyper-marginals - Bradford South for example.

    If Labour has the campaign cash next time out to invest in say 100 target seats - where do they put it?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 16,337

    Labour have nothing to say.. where are the policies to help them win???They don't even have a charismatic leader.

    SKS fans please respond.

    No Labour leader since WW2 has lost their 1st by election where they were incumbent.

    Until now?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,172
    I note on the bottom of the ticker Labour held Wimbledon in 2001 !
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,560
    Has anyone got a link to the poll data tables?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 9,508

    Quincel said:

    Mildly surprised to see it this much of a two horse race, with former Labour MPs and Ref UK all down at 1-2%. But the headline figure is roughly where I guessed last night. The national Tory lead is back to high single digits, so barely down on 2019, and the RefUK vote has good reason to break strongly to the Tories.

    My hot take is that the Labour selection was still a good call. This poll backs up Leave/Remain being a fading divide imho, with no hardcore remain or leave vote splintering off to other parties, in which case picking a doctor working on COVID vaccinations was as good optics as they could hope for.

    But a doctor working on Covid vaccinations is just reminding Hartlepool voters "Hey, Boris did Brexit AND oversaw that vaccination campaign. Legend...."
    He's also doing campaign videos openly lying through his teeth about hospital provision. The lie exposed is doing the rounds on monkey hangers Facebook...
  • eekeek Posts: 11,737
    edited April 6

    Has anyone got a link to the poll data tables?

    Doesn't seem to be there yet just the summary at https://cdn.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/04174005/CWU-Hartlepool-Constituency-Poll-Summary-Document.pdf

    My only comment on this is that this is a phone poll so presumably done via landlines (identifiably local) rather than mobile phones which may bias the results but it confirms my view from the moment this election was announced - the Brexit vote has swung to the Tories and this will be reinforced as the mayoral election emphasises Ben Houchen's successes elsewhere in the region.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,962
    Tories seem to be getting incredibly excited this morning on the back of a dodgy small sample phone poll made immediately after the latest unlocking, commissioned by a highly corbynite trade union with an axe to grind.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 9,508

    Labour have nothing to say.. where are the policies to help them win???They don't even have a charismatic leader.

    SKS fans please respond.

    No Labour leader since WW2 has lost their 1st by election where they were incumbent.

    Until now?
    It isn't an either/or - the response to Keith being shit isn't to go back to status quo ante as we know Jezbollah was shitter.

    Labour needs to decide what it stands for and who it speaks to. The problem over the last few decades on areas like Teesside is it stood for and spoke to its own magnificence. Everything may be shit round here but that was all Thatcha, so don't blame us for doing Fuck All since then.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    edited April 6

    ydoethur said:

    felix said:

    I'm very sceptical of such polls - I guess it will be close on a low turnout. Probable Labour hold but ..'events dear boy, events'. Who knows?

    As I keep pointing out this isn't just a by-election, it is Super Thursday. People are out to vote for their council, the metro Mayor, the PCC and their MP. Turnout will be very healthy.

    Nailed on Tory gain. As I have been saying consistently from the moment the by-election was announced. I know the area, I know the politics, I know several of the candidates.

    Tories are sweeping the board in this one. It isn't just Brexit, it's the long arrogant death-rattle of Labour in the NE and the absolute roll the Tories have been on there for the last few years.
    If Brexit Party voters from 2019 turn to the Tories Labour should be panicking right now, and not just in the North East. Adding Brexit voters to Tory columns costs Labour, on a conservative estimate, about 40 seats. It would have added five in Wales alone and makes another six very marginal.

    I was assuming that they wouldn’t vote at all, now they’ve got what they wanted. Given the way it’s turning out they may still decide to not vote in future of course.
    Tories picking up 4 out of 5 Brexit voters (as this poll suggests) also shifts many Tory MPs from marginal to much, much trickier for Labour. For example, if anyone thought Bolsover was a crazy seat for the Tories to win, they would be over 50% with 4/5 of the 2019 Brexit vote.

    Labour have a bunch of seats from 2019 move into the "tricky, require defending" column. Seats like Blaydon, Easington and Angela Rayner's Ashton-under-Lyne seat. Or become hyper-marginals - Bradford South for example.

    If Labour has the campaign cash next time out to invest in say 100 target seats - where do they put it?
    The other point is, I was assuming the Brexit party vote had in some cases actually hurt Labour by siphoning off potential voters.

    If however they would otherwise have voted Tory en bloc, then Labour were very lucky. They would have faced their most disastrous defeat since 1931.

    So the unwind effect I was assuming would occur looks as though it won’t.

    However, this is one poll with a significant MoE. Let’s see the results.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 9,291
    Scott_xP said:

    Tory chances probably rest on how badly they screw up the vaccine passports

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1379316594619379712

    https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1379312421739900928

    I am against them for all but international travel but key objections were 1) introduction before all are offered a vaccine 2) use in everyday places like pubs and restaurants.

    If it is for big events like festivals or mass sporting events only and after everyone has been offered the jab my opposition drops from the furious down to mild annoyance.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 1,319
    Scott_xP said:

    Tory chances probably rest on how badly they screw up the vaccine passports

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1379316594619379712

    https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1379312421739900928

    I want 90k at Wembley. And I think it’s entirely sensible to say it should happen for England vs Scotland and we could get away without vaccine certificates for it.

    The government’s main problem on this is it’s setting up an unBrittish and illiberal policy without explaining in what basis it will be rescinded. If there was an automatic sunset clause when say 80% [pick a number] of over 18s had received two doses, I wouldn’t grumble. It’s this implicit undertone that once they’re implemented they’re never disappearing. Much as with masks.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,317
    Good morning, everyone.

    Argh!

    You don't pay off a deficit. That's an incorrect question. Boo and, if I may say so, hiss!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    Labour have nothing to say.. where are the policies to help them win???They don't even have a charismatic leader.

    SKS fans please respond.

    No Labour leader since WW2 has lost their 1st by election where they were incumbent.

    Until now?
    Although the last leader who lost his first by election as an incumbent did OK at the following election.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Brecon_and_Radnorshire_by-election
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,317
    Mr. Doethur, Basil II lost his first battle as emperor of Byzantium.

    In retrospect, the Bulgars may have regretted earning his lasting enmity.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 6,923
    edited April 6
    Foxy said:
    Deficit / Debt confusion.

    Illiterate pollster.
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,607
    IanB2 said:

    Tories seem to be getting incredibly excited this morning on the back of a dodgy small sample phone poll made immediately after the latest unlocking, commissioned by a highly corbynite trade union with an axe to grind.

    Of course you wouldn't wish to accuse Survation of bending to client demands would you? But then you seem to be selectively reading the comments of several Tory posters myself included
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,387
    edited April 6
    moonshine said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tory chances probably rest on how badly they screw up the vaccine passports

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1379316594619379712

    https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1379312421739900928

    I want 90k at Wembley. And I think it’s entirely sensible to say it should happen for England vs Scotland and we could get away without vaccine certificates for it.

    The government’s main problem on this is it’s setting up an unBrittish and illiberal policy without explaining in what basis it will be rescinded. If there was an automatic sunset clause when say 80% [pick a number] of over 18s had received two doses, I wouldn’t grumble. It’s this implicit undertone that once they’re implemented they’re never disappearing. Much as with masks.
    What makes you think the laws around masks are never disappearing? I'd be extremely surprised if there was any law requiring mask use in shops in 12 months time, for example.

    I think an automatic sunset clause would be quite clever, but I don't think that without one there is any reason to expect most COVID measures to have any staying power. I think they are widely seen as a response to a very specific situation.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 6,923

    Labour have nothing to say.. where are the policies to help them win???They don't even have a charismatic leader.

    SKS fans please respond.

    No Labour leader since WW2 has lost their 1st by election where they were incumbent.

    Until now?
    How is SKS incumbent?

    REcumbent, more like.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,560
    eek said:

    Has anyone got a link to the poll data tables?

    Doesn't seem to be there yet just the summary at https://cdn.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/04174005/CWU-Hartlepool-Constituency-Poll-Summary-Document.pdf

    My only comment on this is that this is a phone poll so presumably done via landlines (identifiably local) rather than mobile phones which may bias the results but it confirms my view from the moment this election was announced - the Brexit vote has swung to the Tories and this will be reinforced as the mayoral election emphasises Ben Houchen's successes elsewhere in the region.
    I don't think you can make judgement until you have seen the data tables.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509

    Mr. Doethur, Basil II lost his first battle as emperor of Byzantium.

    In retrospect, the Bulgars may have regretted earning his lasting enmity.

    Eye, eye.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 21,966
    Good Morning. As Mr B2 notes, it's sunny if unseasonably cold.

    Just seen the picture of Boris on the front page of the the Times, in the BBC's round-up of the papers.. He looks manic.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,962

    Mr. Doethur, Basil II lost his first battle as emperor of Byzantium.

    In retrospect, the Bulgars may have regretted earning his lasting enmity.

    Eye eye, a bit early in the morning for ancient history.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 16,337

    Labour have nothing to say.. where are the policies to help them win???They don't even have a charismatic leader.

    SKS fans please respond.

    No Labour leader since WW2 has lost their 1st by election where they were incumbent.

    Until now?
    It isn't an either/or - the response to Keith being shit isn't to go back to status quo ante as we know Jezbollah was shitter.

    Labour needs to decide what it stands for and who it speaks to. The problem over the last few decades on areas like Teesside is it stood for and spoke to its own magnificence. Everything may be shit round here but that was all Thatcha, so don't blame us for doing Fuck All since then.
    SKS fans please explain who Labour stands for.

    And how come if Jezza was shittier he never lost Hartlepool?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,600
    Here’s the angle Starmer should have been looking for, handed to him on a plate by Fraser Nelson.

    Vaccine passports, you see, are racist.
    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1378276188959997952
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    I agree with Mike that Labour are clear value here now.

    This poll is more than slightly suspect, with a small data set and the telephone angle no doubt making it difficult to get a balanced poll. We retain a landline for internet services but we very, very rarely even answer it these days as everyone we want to speak to calls on the mobiles. I suspect that is not unusual which means those answering landlines are likely to be older and possibly poorer than the average. I would not be inclined to give it much weight and this is not a criticism of Survation, its the reality that they have to deal with in a time of Covid.

    As @Foxy has already pointed out the other questions are not exactly compatible with a Tory lead either. The responses are to the left of SKS, to the extent that he has a view at all.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    Quincel said:

    moonshine said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tory chances probably rest on how badly they screw up the vaccine passports

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1379316594619379712

    https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1379312421739900928

    I want 90k at Wembley. And I think it’s entirely sensible to say it should happen for England vs Scotland and we could get away without vaccine certificates for it.

    The government’s main problem on this is it’s setting up an unBrittish and illiberal policy without explaining in what basis it will be rescinded. If there was an automatic sunset clause when say 80% [pick a number] of over 18s had received two doses, I wouldn’t grumble. It’s this implicit undertone that once they’re implemented they’re never disappearing. Much as with masks.
    What makes you think the laws around masks are never disappearing? I'd be extremely surprised if there was any law requiring mask use in shops in 12 months time, for example.

    I think an automatic sunset clause would be quite clever, but I don't think that without one there is any reason to expect most COVID measures to have any staying power. I think they are widely seen as a response to a very specific situation.
    The other point is, there is no legal way to enforce mask wearing in shops. Under the law, a simple declaration that you are exempt cannot be challenged.

    Therefore, as soon as people think there is no point in wearing one, they will stop wearing one,and there is nothing that can be done about it.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,737

    Labour have nothing to say.. where are the policies to help them win???They don't even have a charismatic leader.

    SKS fans please respond.

    No Labour leader since WW2 has lost their 1st by election where they were incumbent.

    Until now?
    It isn't an either/or - the response to Keith being shit isn't to go back to status quo ante as we know Jezbollah was shitter.

    Labour needs to decide what it stands for and who it speaks to. The problem over the last few decades on areas like Teesside is it stood for and spoke to its own magnificence. Everything may be shit round here but that was all Thatcha, so don't blame us for doing Fuck All since then.
    SKS fans please explain who Labour stands for.

    And how come if Jezza was shittier he never lost Hartlepool?
    Split vote - as I stated at the 2019 election - Nigel Farage cost the Tories 15-20 seats minimum
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 6,560
    On Betfair the Tories now a 65% chance
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,962
    ydoethur said:

    Mr. Doethur, Basil II lost his first battle as emperor of Byzantium.

    In retrospect, the Bulgars may have regretted earning his lasting enmity.

    Eye, eye.
    Being a fraction of a second earlier is no good if you fail on the punctuation ;)
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,387

    Labour have nothing to say.. where are the policies to help them win???They don't even have a charismatic leader.

    SKS fans please respond.

    No Labour leader since WW2 has lost their 1st by election where they were incumbent.

    Until now?
    It isn't an either/or - the response to Keith being shit isn't to go back to status quo ante as we know Jezbollah was shitter.

    Labour needs to decide what it stands for and who it speaks to. The problem over the last few decades on areas like Teesside is it stood for and spoke to its own magnificence. Everything may be shit round here but that was all Thatcha, so don't blame us for doing Fuck All since then.
    SKS fans please explain who Labour stands for.

    And how come if Jezza was shittier he never lost Hartlepool?
    I'm not a big SKS fan, but Jezza didn't lose Hartlepool because Farage accidentally split the Leave vote. As others have pointed out, this poll has Labour getting slightly more support than in 2019 - but with the Tories consolidating a larger bloc which existed in 2019 too.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    edited April 6
    IanB2 said:

    Mr. Doethur, Basil II lost his first battle as emperor of Byzantium.

    In retrospect, the Bulgars may have regretted earning his lasting enmity.

    Eye eye, a bit early in the morning for ancient history.
    Samthing in that.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,737

    eek said:

    Has anyone got a link to the poll data tables?

    Doesn't seem to be there yet just the summary at https://cdn.survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/04/04174005/CWU-Hartlepool-Constituency-Poll-Summary-Document.pdf

    My only comment on this is that this is a phone poll so presumably done via landlines (identifiably local) rather than mobile phones which may bias the results but it confirms my view from the moment this election was announced - the Brexit vote has swung to the Tories and this will be reinforced as the mayoral election emphasises Ben Houchen's successes elsewhere in the region.
    I don't think you can make judgement until you have seen the data tables.
    My judgement is based on my knowledge of the area.

    Remember both RochdalePioneer and myself are locals and left leaning. Yet both of us have been clear from the beginning that this is a nailed on Tory win.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 16,337
    DavidL said:

    I agree with Mike that Labour are clear value here now.

    This poll is more than slightly suspect, with a small data set and the telephone angle no doubt making it difficult to get a balanced poll. We retain a landline for internet services but we very, very rarely even answer it these days as everyone we want to speak to calls on the mobiles. I suspect that is not unusual which means those answering landlines are likely to be older and possibly poorer than the average. I would not be inclined to give it much weight and this is not a criticism of Survation, its the reality that they have to deal with in a time of Covid.

    As @Foxy has already pointed out the other questions are not exactly compatible with a Tory lead either. The responses are to the left of SKS, to the extent that he has a view at all.

    Re other questions can SKS fans please tell us his stance.

    Can't see him being in favour of a large NHS pay award or Nationalising RM??
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 55,317
    Mr. B2, it's only around a thousand years ago.
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,024
    IanB2 said:

    Tories seem to be getting incredibly excited this morning on the back of a dodgy small sample phone poll made immediately after the latest unlocking, commissioned by a highly corbynite trade union with an axe to grind.

    Absolutely. I'll be stunned if this goes Tory. Look at the other issues - a list of things to point out for a Labour candidate.

    I also can't see the brexit vote breaking 80% to the Tories. I've been mulling this over for a while and Brexit / Refuk seem to have run their course, but surely people voted for them as a protest against the Tories and Labour. I don't think historically where they haven't stood that the vote has automatically gone to the Tories.

  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,387
    DavidL said:

    I agree with Mike that Labour are clear value here now.

    This poll is more than slightly suspect, with a small data set and the telephone angle no doubt making it difficult to get a balanced poll. We retain a landline for internet services but we very, very rarely even answer it these days as everyone we want to speak to calls on the mobiles. I suspect that is not unusual which means those answering landlines are likely to be older and possibly poorer than the average. I would not be inclined to give it much weight and this is not a criticism of Survation, its the reality that they have to deal with in a time of Covid.

    As @Foxy has already pointed out the other questions are not exactly compatible with a Tory lead either. The responses are to the left of SKS, to the extent that he has a view at all.

    I don't think we should take the poll as gospel, but I'd caution against being too suspect of the policy/VI split. The public are consistently left-wing economically (and socially conservative on immigration, law and order, and some other areas). But polls showing the public preferred the policies of Ed Miliband in 2015 and Jeremy Corbyn in 2019 didn't lead those same public to vote for them to run the country. Rail nationalisation, for example, has been popular forever - but Labour can still hurt their brand by backing it if it plays into an image that they are anti-business.

    Another good example of a policy where the public are far more left-wing than you'd think is rent controls, which if memory serves is backed by a majority...of Tory voters...and about 80% of the public overall. Funnily enough, despite being rather left-wing myself on most issues I am one of the 20%.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 22,750
    DavidL said:

    I agree with Mike that Labour are clear value here now.

    This poll is more than slightly suspect, with a small data set and the telephone angle no doubt making it difficult to get a balanced poll. We retain a landline for internet services but we very, very rarely even answer it these days as everyone we want to speak to calls on the mobiles. I suspect that is not unusual which means those answering landlines are likely to be older and possibly poorer than the average. I would not be inclined to give it much weight and this is not a criticism of Survation, its the reality that they have to deal with in a time of Covid.

    As @Foxy has already pointed out the other questions are not exactly compatible with a Tory lead either. The responses are to the left of SKS, to the extent that he has a view at all.

    I think the point is that the voters in Hartlepool want a magic money tree and believe that the Tories will provide one.
  • prh47bridgeprh47bridge Posts: 340
    Quincel said:

    As a side note: Some people last night were suggesting the LDs will focus on Amersham and Chesham. Is there time to hold it on the same day? If it is more than a week or two after I'd have thought the party could put resources into both, even if Hartlepool is hardly a priority target.

    No, there isn't. The earliest the writ could be moved is when Parliament returns next week. The minimum time from then to the election is 21 working days.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 9,508

    Labour have nothing to say.. where are the policies to help them win???They don't even have a charismatic leader.

    SKS fans please respond.

    No Labour leader since WW2 has lost their 1st by election where they were incumbent.

    Until now?
    It isn't an either/or - the response to Keith being shit isn't to go back to status quo ante as we know Jezbollah was shitter.

    Labour needs to decide what it stands for and who it speaks to. The problem over the last few decades on areas like Teesside is it stood for and spoke to its own magnificence. Everything may be shit round here but that was all Thatcha, so don't blame us for doing Fuck All since then.
    SKS fans please explain who Labour stands for.

    And how come if Jezza was shittier he never lost Hartlepool?
    The irony here is that I, a traitor who fucked off to join the Tories LibDems want Paul Williams and Labour to win, and you the proper socialist want Labour to lose.

    You don't see the problem?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 1,712
    Interesting - Nadhim Zahawi just confirmed moderna in use in the 3rd week of April. I assume that is the week after next (so from 19th). Good news.
  • eekeek Posts: 11,737
    moonshine said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tory chances probably rest on how badly they screw up the vaccine passports

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1379316594619379712

    https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1379312421739900928

    I want 90k at Wembley. And I think it’s entirely sensible to say it should happen for England vs Scotland and we could get away without vaccine certificates for it.

    The government’s main problem on this is it’s setting up an unBrittish and illiberal policy without explaining in what basis it will be rescinded. If there was an automatic sunset clause when say 80% [pick a number] of over 18s had received two doses, I wouldn’t grumble. It’s this implicit undertone that once they’re implemented they’re never disappearing. Much as with masks.
    Yet equally you can't insist on vaccine passports until all over 18s have had the chance to receive two doses.

    Anything else is going to look biased and would instantly fail on age discrimination grounds. Worse how can an establishment insist on their customers being vaccinated when their casual staff won't have been.

    The idea of vaccine passports / certificates is flawed...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,172
    DavidL said:

    I agree with Mike that Labour are clear value here now.

    Where has Mike said this ?

  • prh47bridgeprh47bridge Posts: 340
    moonshine said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tory chances probably rest on how badly they screw up the vaccine passports

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1379316594619379712

    https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1379312421739900928

    I want 90k at Wembley. And I think it’s entirely sensible to say it should happen for England vs Scotland and we could get away without vaccine certificates for it.

    The government’s main problem on this is it’s setting up an unBrittish and illiberal policy without explaining in what basis it will be rescinded. If there was an automatic sunset clause when say 80% [pick a number] of over 18s had received two doses, I wouldn’t grumble. It’s this implicit undertone that once they’re implemented they’re never disappearing. Much as with masks.
    Compulsory masks are disappearing. The current regulations on masks in England cease to apply for public transport on 15th June and for other settings on 24th July. The government could, of course, extend the regulations but, as things stand, compulsory face masks will come to an end this summer.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    edited April 6
    eek said:

    Labour have nothing to say.. where are the policies to help them win???They don't even have a charismatic leader.

    SKS fans please respond.

    No Labour leader since WW2 has lost their 1st by election where they were incumbent.

    Until now?
    It isn't an either/or - the response to Keith being shit isn't to go back to status quo ante as we know Jezbollah was shitter.

    Labour needs to decide what it stands for and who it speaks to. The problem over the last few decades on areas like Teesside is it stood for and spoke to its own magnificence. Everything may be shit round here but that was all Thatcha, so don't blame us for doing Fuck All since then.
    SKS fans please explain who Labour stands for.

    And how come if Jezza was shittier he never lost Hartlepool?
    Split vote - as I stated at the 2019 election - Nigel Farage cost the Tories 15-20 seats minimum
    More than that. I make it six in the NE, five in Wales, three in the WestMidlands, four in the north west, ten in Yorkshire, and one in the East Midlands. That’s without checking the southern areas, where there may be a few more. It also doesn’t include seats which would have become extremely tight.

    I hadn’t bothered to do that before because I simply didn’t think it was likely people who voted Brexit would otherwise have voted Tory. But if this poll is right, I was very wrong.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 9,508
    eek said:

    Labour have nothing to say.. where are the policies to help them win???They don't even have a charismatic leader.

    SKS fans please respond.

    No Labour leader since WW2 has lost their 1st by election where they were incumbent.

    Until now?
    It isn't an either/or - the response to Keith being shit isn't to go back to status quo ante as we know Jezbollah was shitter.

    Labour needs to decide what it stands for and who it speaks to. The problem over the last few decades on areas like Teesside is it stood for and spoke to its own magnificence. Everything may be shit round here but that was all Thatcha, so don't blame us for doing Fuck All since then.
    SKS fans please explain who Labour stands for.

    And how come if Jezza was shittier he never lost Hartlepool?
    Split vote - as I stated at the 2019 election - Nigel Farage cost the Tories 15-20 seats minimum
    Stockton North being a prime example. The Brexit Party went for it - and entertainingly many of their activists were ex Tories. Including one notable ex Tory councillor who had been booted in one of the Tory purges they used to regularly do on Teesside. Chatting with said ex-councillor at the count, and putting it to him that the neck and neck Lab / Con piles wouldn't be without them running a spoiler campaign, he said they HAD to campaign hard to put the shits up Boris. Apparently winning 120 seats and doing a poor Brexit was less important than 80 seats and doing it right.

    The Tories could have taken all kinds of unlikely seats on the night had BXP not deliberately split the vote to keep the Tories honest.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,172

    eek said:

    Labour have nothing to say.. where are the policies to help them win???They don't even have a charismatic leader.

    SKS fans please respond.

    No Labour leader since WW2 has lost their 1st by election where they were incumbent.

    Until now?
    It isn't an either/or - the response to Keith being shit isn't to go back to status quo ante as we know Jezbollah was shitter.

    Labour needs to decide what it stands for and who it speaks to. The problem over the last few decades on areas like Teesside is it stood for and spoke to its own magnificence. Everything may be shit round here but that was all Thatcha, so don't blame us for doing Fuck All since then.
    SKS fans please explain who Labour stands for.

    And how come if Jezza was shittier he never lost Hartlepool?
    Split vote - as I stated at the 2019 election - Nigel Farage cost the Tories 15-20 seats minimum
    Stockton North being a prime example. The Brexit Party went for it - and entertainingly many of their activists were ex Tories. Including one notable ex Tory councillor who had been booted in one of the Tory purges they used to regularly do on Teesside. Chatting with said ex-councillor at the count, and putting it to him that the neck and neck Lab / Con piles wouldn't be without them running a spoiler campaign, he said they HAD to campaign hard to put the shits up Boris. Apparently winning 120 seats and doing a poor Brexit was less important than 80 seats and doing it right.

    The Tories could have taken all kinds of unlikely seats on the night had BXP not deliberately split the vote to keep the Tories honest.
    Labour Ed Miliband 15,740
    Conservative Katrina Sale 13,370
  • felixfelix Posts: 12,607
    DavidL said:

    I agree with Mike that Labour are clear value here now.

    This poll is more than slightly suspect, with a small data set and the telephone angle no doubt making it difficult to get a balanced poll. We retain a landline for internet services but we very, very rarely even answer it these days as everyone we want to speak to calls on the mobiles. I suspect that is not unusual which means those answering landlines are likely to be older and possibly poorer than the average. I would not be inclined to give it much weight and this is not a criticism of Survation, its the reality that they have to deal with in a time of Covid.

    As @Foxy has already pointed out the other questions are not exactly compatible with a Tory lead either. The responses are to the left of SKS, to the extent that he has a view at all.

    However, that would suggest that the same people are saying two different things which adds to the confusion.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,962
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    I agree with Mike that Labour are clear value here now.

    Where has Mike said this ?

    Did you read the lead??
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    I agree with Mike that Labour are clear value here now.

    Where has Mike said this ?

    In the thread header, he says "At 25% I think LAB is now value."

    You should read to the end. Its much easier to do with Mike's headers than some of the contributions (many of which are very good).
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 1,712
    eek said:

    moonshine said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tory chances probably rest on how badly they screw up the vaccine passports

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1379316594619379712

    https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1379312421739900928

    I want 90k at Wembley. And I think it’s entirely sensible to say it should happen for England vs Scotland and we could get away without vaccine certificates for it.

    The government’s main problem on this is it’s setting up an unBrittish and illiberal policy without explaining in what basis it will be rescinded. If there was an automatic sunset clause when say 80% [pick a number] of over 18s had received two doses, I wouldn’t grumble. It’s this implicit undertone that once they’re implemented they’re never disappearing. Much as with masks.
    Yet equally you can't insist on vaccine passports until all over 18s have had the chance to receive two doses.

    Anything else is going to look biased and would instantly fail on age discrimination grounds. Worse how can an establishment insist on their customers being vaccinated when their casual staff won't have been.

    The idea of vaccine passports / certificates is flawed...
    I think this is why it’s a trinity - vaccinated, positive test (and recovered) or recent negative test. I know this is anathema to some, but in the period from may to end of summer (or whenever all over 18 have been offered the vaccine) there is a logic to this in the right setting. Get to Wembley, show your fa cup final ticket and Your Covid status certificate.
    Do I think we should do this? No. Do I understand why some are attracted to the idea? Yes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,962
    Ashworth on R4, laying into vaccine passports whilst doggedly refusing to say Labour would vote against them.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    felix said:

    DavidL said:

    I agree with Mike that Labour are clear value here now.

    This poll is more than slightly suspect, with a small data set and the telephone angle no doubt making it difficult to get a balanced poll. We retain a landline for internet services but we very, very rarely even answer it these days as everyone we want to speak to calls on the mobiles. I suspect that is not unusual which means those answering landlines are likely to be older and possibly poorer than the average. I would not be inclined to give it much weight and this is not a criticism of Survation, its the reality that they have to deal with in a time of Covid.

    As @Foxy has already pointed out the other questions are not exactly compatible with a Tory lead either. The responses are to the left of SKS, to the extent that he has a view at all.

    However, that would suggest that the same people are saying two different things which adds to the confusion.
    It may be that Boris is simply riding a wave on the back of his vaccination triumph but it does suggest to me that there is some fairly fallow territory for Labour to plough if they can get a hearing.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,387
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    I agree with Mike that Labour are clear value here now.

    Where has Mike said this ?

    In the thread header, he says "At 25% I think LAB is now value."

    You should read to the end. Its much easier to do with Mike's headers than some of the contributions (many of which are very good).
    It is worth noting that Labour are now 40% on Smarkets. I agree that Labour were value at 25%, but at 40% I'd say the odds are about right.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,790

    moonshine said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tory chances probably rest on how badly they screw up the vaccine passports

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1379316594619379712

    https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1379312421739900928

    I want 90k at Wembley. And I think it’s entirely sensible to say it should happen for England vs Scotland and we could get away without vaccine certificates for it.

    The government’s main problem on this is it’s setting up an unBrittish and illiberal policy without explaining in what basis it will be rescinded. If there was an automatic sunset clause when say 80% [pick a number] of over 18s had received two doses, I wouldn’t grumble. It’s this implicit undertone that once they’re implemented they’re never disappearing. Much as with masks.
    Compulsory masks are disappearing. The current regulations on masks in England cease to apply for public transport on 15th June and for other settings on 24th July. The government could, of course, extend the regulations but, as things stand, compulsory face masks will come to an end this summer.
    It won't stop me wearing one ..
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,024
    DavidL said:

    I agree with Mike that Labour are clear value here now.

    This poll is more than slightly suspect, with a small data set and the telephone angle no doubt making it difficult to get a balanced poll. We retain a landline for internet services but we very, very rarely even answer it these days as everyone we want to speak to calls on the mobiles. I suspect that is not unusual which means those answering landlines are likely to be older and possibly poorer than the average. I would not be inclined to give it much weight and this is not a criticism of Survation, its the reality that they have to deal with in a time of Covid.

    As @Foxy has already pointed out the other questions are not exactly compatible with a Tory lead either. The responses are to the left of SKS, to the extent that he has a view at all.

    If you were a union with an axe to grind against Starmer, and wanted to target the most brexit-y voters then a phone poll on landlines would be the way to go.

    Now I don't know local politics in the North East and they seem to have fallen out of love with Labour - but there is a loyalty to Labour, and it is all very well telling a pollster you will vote Tory, but going to the polling station and putting and X in a box for the evil Tories is surely a step beyond Ukip/Brexit
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,024
    edited April 6
    ...
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 1,712

    moonshine said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tory chances probably rest on how badly they screw up the vaccine passports

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1379316594619379712

    https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1379312421739900928

    I want 90k at Wembley. And I think it’s entirely sensible to say it should happen for England vs Scotland and we could get away without vaccine certificates for it.

    The government’s main problem on this is it’s setting up an unBrittish and illiberal policy without explaining in what basis it will be rescinded. If there was an automatic sunset clause when say 80% [pick a number] of over 18s had received two doses, I wouldn’t grumble. It’s this implicit undertone that once they’re implemented they’re never disappearing. Much as with masks.
    Compulsory masks are disappearing. The current regulations on masks in England cease to apply for public transport on 15th June and for other settings on 24th July. The government could, of course, extend the regulations but, as things stand, compulsory face masks will come to an end this summer.
    It won't stop me wearing one ..
    And that is your right. I have lost faith in the hand sanitising as the evidence has shown that aerosols are by far and away the biggest form of spread. I wash them when dirty and before eating. But that is my choice too.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,172
    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    I agree with Mike that Labour are clear value here now.

    Where has Mike said this ?

    Did you read the lead??
    I missed it under the graph >< !
    DavidL said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    I agree with Mike that Labour are clear value here now.

    Where has Mike said this ?

    In the thread header, he says "At 25% I think LAB is now value."

    You should read to the end. Its much easier to do with Mike's headers than some of the contributions (many of which are very good).
    Alas the 3-1 on Labour came and went whilst I was sleeping.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 2,790
    IanB2 said:

    Tories seem to be getting incredibly excited this morning on the back of a dodgy small sample phone poll made immediately after the latest unlocking, commissioned by a highly corbynite trade union with an axe to grind.

    The mere fact that the Tories could win is nothing short of amazing....
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455

    DavidL said:

    I agree with Mike that Labour are clear value here now.

    This poll is more than slightly suspect, with a small data set and the telephone angle no doubt making it difficult to get a balanced poll. We retain a landline for internet services but we very, very rarely even answer it these days as everyone we want to speak to calls on the mobiles. I suspect that is not unusual which means those answering landlines are likely to be older and possibly poorer than the average. I would not be inclined to give it much weight and this is not a criticism of Survation, its the reality that they have to deal with in a time of Covid.

    As @Foxy has already pointed out the other questions are not exactly compatible with a Tory lead either. The responses are to the left of SKS, to the extent that he has a view at all.

    If you were a union with an axe to grind against Starmer, and wanted to target the most brexit-y voters then a phone poll on landlines would be the way to go.

    Now I don't know local politics in the North East and they seem to have fallen out of love with Labour - but there is a loyalty to Labour, and it is all very well telling a pollster you will vote Tory, but going to the polling station and putting and X in a box for the evil Tories is surely a step beyond Ukip/Brexit
    Survation are a proper pollster, even if they were operating under very difficult circumstances. I very much doubt that they set out to do anything like that, even if the result probably suited their paymasters just fine.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 32,962
    Sounds like Cammo's Greensill has taken Credit Suisse down with it
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 30,600
    edited April 6

    moonshine said:

    Scott_xP said:

    Tory chances probably rest on how badly they screw up the vaccine passports

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1379316594619379712

    https://twitter.com/adamfleming/status/1379312421739900928

    I want 90k at Wembley. And I think it’s entirely sensible to say it should happen for England vs Scotland and we could get away without vaccine certificates for it.

    The government’s main problem on this is it’s setting up an unBrittish and illiberal policy without explaining in what basis it will be rescinded. If there was an automatic sunset clause when say 80% [pick a number] of over 18s had received two doses, I wouldn’t grumble. It’s this implicit undertone that once they’re implemented they’re never disappearing. Much as with masks.
    Compulsory masks are disappearing. The current regulations on masks in England cease to apply for public transport on 15th June and for other settings on 24th July. The government could, of course, extend the regulations but, as things stand, compulsory face masks will come to an end this summer.
    It won't stop me wearing one ..
    They’re not going to be going away, especially on crowded public transport and in the winter months.

    Even when not compulsory, their use will still be much more widespread than before the current pandemic.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 3,387
    A random thought: If this poll is wrong and Labour are actually a bit ahead and go on to win then the legacy of this poll will be to create a false narrative that Labour clawed it back in the local campaign. I suspect there will be very little other polling, sadly.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    IanB2 said:

    Ashworth on R4, laying into vaccine passports whilst doggedly refusing to say Labour would vote against them.

    This really is undermining SKS. Has he a firm view on anything (other than a delusion that despite being unable to make up his mind he would be a better PM)?
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 9,508

    DavidL said:

    I agree with Mike that Labour are clear value here now.

    This poll is more than slightly suspect, with a small data set and the telephone angle no doubt making it difficult to get a balanced poll. We retain a landline for internet services but we very, very rarely even answer it these days as everyone we want to speak to calls on the mobiles. I suspect that is not unusual which means those answering landlines are likely to be older and possibly poorer than the average. I would not be inclined to give it much weight and this is not a criticism of Survation, its the reality that they have to deal with in a time of Covid.

    As @Foxy has already pointed out the other questions are not exactly compatible with a Tory lead either. The responses are to the left of SKS, to the extent that he has a view at all.

    If you were a union with an axe to grind against Starmer, and wanted to target the most brexit-y voters then a phone poll on landlines would be the way to go.

    Now I don't know local politics in the North East and they seem to have fallen out of love with Labour - but there is a loyalty to Labour, and it is all very well telling a pollster you will vote Tory, but going to the polling station and putting and X in a box for the evil Tories is surely a step beyond Ukip/Brexit
    Why? So many of them will already be doing so - Ben Houchen will win by a landslide, and likely now a comfortable win for the Tory PCC candidate. Once you lose that habit of always voting Labour, all kinds of things are possible as witnessed by the Tory MP elected in Bolsover. As I keep pointing out, this is merely one of many votes happening that day, turnout will be decent, many (formerly) LLLLLL voters will be putting a cross against the Tory Mayor so why not for Tory cash for the town as well?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 22,750
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    I agree with Mike that Labour are clear value here now.

    This poll is more than slightly suspect, with a small data set and the telephone angle no doubt making it difficult to get a balanced poll. We retain a landline for internet services but we very, very rarely even answer it these days as everyone we want to speak to calls on the mobiles. I suspect that is not unusual which means those answering landlines are likely to be older and possibly poorer than the average. I would not be inclined to give it much weight and this is not a criticism of Survation, its the reality that they have to deal with in a time of Covid.

    As @Foxy has already pointed out the other questions are not exactly compatible with a Tory lead either. The responses are to the left of SKS, to the extent that he has a view at all.

    I think the point is that the voters in Hartlepool want a magic money tree and believe that the Tories will provide one.
    In fairness to date Rishi has been burning his way through the magic money forest with the rapaciousness of an Amazonian logger so it is perhaps not surprising they approve. Like the Amazon, however, the forest is not endless, nor is it quite as magical as it appears.
    Pedantically, it is farmers not loggers burning the rainforest surely?

    The question though is how long the forest lasts, and what happens when it is finished? I reckon it will last until 2024, then quite a reckoning.

    There is no party to vote for who wants sound money and a balanced budget. Voters who want these things are like the designated driver at a stag night.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 37,509
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Ashworth on R4, laying into vaccine passports whilst doggedly refusing to say Labour would vote against them.

    This really is undermining SKS. Has he a firm view on anything (other than a delusion that despite being unable to make up his mind he would be a better PM)?
    *looks hard at Boris Johnson*

    That isn’t a delusion, David.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,172
    Do I lay Laurence Fox at 739 -1 or does he shorten further ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 36,455
    IanB2 said:

    Sounds like Cammo's Greensill has taken Credit Suisse down with it

    Don't think that they are in any danger of going down but they have certainly taken a serious hit. Why do you say that? The article I read suggested a loss of £900m in Q1, not great but nothing like enough to bring a bank like that down.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 22,750
    DavidL said:

    IanB2 said:

    Ashworth on R4, laying into vaccine passports whilst doggedly refusing to say Labour would vote against them.

    This really is undermining SKS. Has he a firm view on anything (other than a delusion that despite being unable to make up his mind he would be a better PM)?
    I think that SKS only positive legacy is going to be the cleaning of Labour's Augean stables. That is important, but won't win him an election.
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