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What YouGov was reporting a year ago today – politicalbetting.com

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  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    When you put it like that...

    It sounds like an insurance policy.

    Open in the summer but if cases rise going into next winter they can either use the vaxport system or close until spring
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.

    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    valleyboy said:

    justin124 said:

    valleyboy said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Under the FTPA the latest an election can be held is the 2nd of July 2024.

    Repealing the FTPA isn't as easy as assumed, it's going to be tricky trying to restore a royal prerogative power especially as the government is going to argue the prerogative powers are not judicially reviewable, that's why the government has got the Lords involved at this early stage.

    Perhaps you'd care to clarify? - seems out of line with the 'five year term'.
    Click the download report here

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06111/

    On page 8 you'll notice this

    Following the early election, in December 2019, the next election is scheduled to take place on 2 May 2024. Parliament will be dissolved on 26 March 2024.

    and

    There is provision for the Prime Minister to make an order to extend this date for a maximum of two months to deal with unexpected developments. He/she must set out the reasons for the delay, and such an order must be approved by both Houses of Parliament before it can be made. One precedent is the foot and mouth disease outbreak in 2001 which delayed local elections by one month. (In 2001, the general election was held on the same day as the delayed local elections.)
    Thanks. I hadn't appreciated that May was explicitly favoued.

    Ok, so May 2024 is an even more likely date than I'd thought.
    I think May 2024 will be the date for GE simply for no other reason that boundary changes recommendations will not be received until July 2023.

    The primary legislation has been passed but I suspect there may be issues from the Welsh and the Tories (if the Tories look like they will win Wales) about reducing the Welsh number of MPs by 20%.
    The Tories are more likely to favour the reduction in seats because it makes it plausible for them to win Wales. It’s the Valleys where the heaviest cuts will fall and although the Tories have made progress there they’re still not in serious contention to win any seats on current boundaries except possibly Gower and a very long shot at Blaenau Gwent.

    Plus the changes if along the lines proposed would exterminate Labour outside the south, cut Plaid Cymru in half by costing them the current Carmarthen East and Ceredigion seats and leave Newport and Llanelli both looking vulnerable to a fairly modest Tory swing.

    So I do not see that as a problem. There might be a couple of cases of two Tory MPs fighting for the same seat in the north east but actually there are enough tempting targets to go round to buy off any losers.
    I was talking more about the optics, it isn't inconceivable that the Tories win* the Senedd elections next month that creates momentum for them for them in the GE, it'll be easy attack line for Labour to use about the Tories reducing Welsh influence in Parliament when they need it the most.
    I do not think that will resonate outside the Cardiff/Swansea/Merthyr triangle, if I’m honest. The immediate riposte is ‘you’ve had influence for years and things keep getting worse. Let’s try influencing the other lot.’

    Bear in mind, there is only one seat Labour have never held at any level in Wales. They’ve held all the others at one time or another and done fuck all with it. A trade Union exec once told me with a straight face that Nicholas Edwards had done far more for Wales than ever Peter Hain did (On the one occasion I met him, Edwards himself agreed, incidentally, and wasn’t amused when I tripped him up over one or two of his claims).

    So I think there isn’t a problem for the Tories in cutting seats outside the Valleys, and there aren’t many likely to go there anyway, while inside the valleys it will make no difference anyway.
    Aren't a number of seats in North Wales to go too? Labour only holds one of them.
    The way the boundaries were being drawn, with Anglesey protected, that Labour seat is in effect the only one that goes.

    There might be a bit of a scuffle between the MP for Montgomeryshire and one of the Clwyd seats, but elsewhere it’s as you were.

    In the south west, helpfully, the redrawn seats pitch incumbent Tories against incumbent PC.
    It doesn't appear to me as if there are sufficient seats in the North to go round for the available Tory MPs, even if we assume that the successor to the current Alyn & Deeside flips Lab to Con and that one extra seat is added, relative to the 2019 proposals, since Wales is now to receive 32 rather than 29 MPs. I guess that whoever is left without a chair when the music stops will be sent to try to lift Ceredigion plus whatever gets tacked onto it from Plaid, although then again I'm not sure I'd much fancy their chances. They might actually have more luck trying to prise Llanelli away from Labour, if it ends up having some more rural hinterland tacked onto it.
    Stephen Crabbe will be the candidate in Ceredigion and North Pembs unless he retires.

    Edit - and I would very much fancy their chances there, on current boundaries it would be a fairly comfortable Tory hold.

    Llanelli is another one the Tories might begin to challenge in.
    Cardigan has never elected a Tory as far as I know - it was Labour-held by Elystan Morgan 1966 - Feb 1974. Rural North Pembrokeshire tends to be less favourable for the Tories than South Pembrokeshire - with significant pockets of support for Plaid and - periodically - the LDs. Tactical anti - Tory voting there might be more effective than many assume.
    Crabb is not a natural fit there and most of his current seat would be likely to fall into the residual Pembroke seat. He is a Scot by birth - and not obviously culturally Welsh really.
    Quite. If the net effect of the boundary changes is not dissimilar to those previously proposed in 2018, then one would've thought that the two sitting Tories in the South West would go for the Carmarthen and Pembroke seats and leave the Ceredigion one well alone.
    The Carmarthen seat would be a likely Plaid hold - and Pembroke would be vulnerable to Labour in a reasonable year as evidenced by the 1992 result there.
    You think? Carmarthen East is a marginal and Plaid are nowhere in Carmarthen West & S Pembs.

    The Pembroke seat's not going to Labour unless there's a fairly hefty swing (7% at a rough guess.)

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Under the FTPA the latest an election can be held is the 2nd of July 2024.

    Repealing the FTPA isn't as easy as assumed, it's going to be tricky trying to restore a royal prerogative power especially as the government is going to argue the prerogative powers are not judicially reviewable, that's why the government has got the Lords involved at this early stage.

    Perhaps you'd care to clarify? - seems out of line with the 'five year term'.
    Click the download report here

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06111/

    On page 8 you'll notice this

    Following the early election, in December 2019, the next election is scheduled to take place on 2 May 2024. Parliament will be dissolved on 26 March 2024.

    and

    There is provision for the Prime Minister to make an order to extend this date for a maximum of two months to deal with unexpected developments. He/she must set out the reasons for the delay, and such an order must be approved by both Houses of Parliament before it can be made. One precedent is the foot and mouth disease outbreak in 2001 which delayed local elections by one month. (In 2001, the general election was held on the same day as the delayed local elections.)
    Thanks. I hadn't appreciated that May was explicitly favoued.

    Ok, so May 2024 is an even more likely date than I'd thought.
    I think May 2024 will be the date for GE simply for no other reason that boundary changes recommendations will not be received until July 2023.

    The primary legislation has been passed but I suspect there may be issues from the Welsh and the Tories (if the Tories look like they will win Wales) about reducing the Welsh number of MPs by 20%.
    The Tories are more likely to favour the reduction in seats because it makes it plausible for them to win Wales. It’s the Valleys where the heaviest cuts will fall and although the Tories have made progress there they’re still not in serious contention to win any seats on current boundaries except possibly Gower and a very long shot at Blaenau Gwent.

    Plus the changes if along the lines proposed would exterminate Labour outside the south, cut Plaid Cymru in half by costing them the current Carmarthen East and Ceredigion seats and leave Newport and Llanelli both looking vulnerable to a fairly modest Tory swing.

    So I do not see that as a problem. There might be a couple of cases of two Tory MPs fighting for the same seat in the north east but actually there are enough tempting targets to go round to buy off any losers.
    I was talking more about the optics, it isn't inconceivable that the Tories win* the Senedd elections next month that creates momentum for them for them in the GE, it'll be easy attack line for Labour to use about the Tories reducing Welsh influence in Parliament when they need it the most.
    I do not think that will resonate outside the Cardiff/Swansea/Merthyr triangle, if I’m honest. The immediate riposte is ‘you’ve had influence for years and things keep getting worse. Let’s try influencing the other lot.’

    Bear in mind, there is only one seat Labour have never held at any level in Wales. They’ve held all the others at one time or another and done fuck all with it. A trade Union exec once told me with a straight face that Nicholas Edwards had done far more for Wales than ever Peter Hain did (On the one occasion I met him, Edwards himself agreed, incidentally, and wasn’t amused when I tripped him up over one or two of his claims).

    So I think there isn’t a problem for the Tories in cutting seats outside the Valleys, and there aren’t many likely to go there anyway, while inside the valleys it will make no difference anyway.
    Aren't a number of seats in North Wales to go too? Labour only holds one of them.
    The way the boundaries were being drawn, with Anglesey protected, that Labour seat is in effect the only one that goes.

    There might be a bit of a scuffle between the MP for Montgomeryshire and one of the Clwyd seats, but elsewhere it’s as you were.

    In the south west, helpfully, the redrawn seats pitch incumbent Tories against incumbent PC.
    It doesn't appear to me as if there are sufficient seats in the North to go round for the available Tory MPs, even if we assume that the successor to the current Alyn & Deeside flips Lab to Con and that one extra seat is added, relative to the 2019 proposals, since Wales is now to receive 32 rather than 29 MPs. I guess that whoever is left without a chair when the music stops will be sent to try to lift Ceredigion plus whatever gets tacked onto it from Plaid, although then again I'm not sure I'd much fancy their chances. They might actually have more luck trying to prise Llanelli away from Labour, if it ends up having some more rural hinterland tacked onto it.
    Stephen Crabbe will be the candidate in Ceredigion and North Pembs unless he retires.

    Edit - and I would very much fancy their chances there, on current boundaries it would be a fairly comfortable Tory hold.

    Llanelli is another one the Tories might begin to challenge in.
    Cardigan has never elected a Tory as far as I know - it was Labour-held by Elystan Morgan 1966 - Feb 1974. Rural North Pembrokeshire tends to be less favourable for the Tories than South Pembrokeshire - with significant pockets of support for Plaid and - periodically - the LDs. Tactical anti - Tory voting there might be more effective than many assume.
    Crabb is not a natural fit there and most of his current seat would be likely to fall into the residual Pembroke seat. He is a Scot by birth - and not obviously culturally Welsh really.
    Quite. If the net effect of the boundary changes is not dissimilar to those previously proposed in 2018, then one would've thought that the two sitting Tories in the South West would go for the Carmarthen and Pembroke seats and leave the Ceredigion one well alone.
    The Carmarthen seat would be a likely Plaid hold - and Pembroke would be vulnerable to Labour in a reasonable year as evidenced by the 1992 result there.
    You think? Carmarthen East is a marginal and Plaid are nowhere in Carmarthen West & S Pembs.

    The Pembroke seat's not going to Labour unless there's a fairly hefty swing (7% at a rough guess.)
    Not necessarily - Pembroke went Labour by 755 in 1992 when the Tories led across GB by 7.6%. Preseli Pembrokeshire nearly fell to Labour in 2017.
    Plaid is very weak in the S Pembs part of the Carmarthen West seat , but much stronger beyond the Pembrokeshire border.
    Much will depend on the new Pembrokeshire boundaries. It may be that a bit of Cardigan will be included which could help the labour vote.
    The county was red from 1992 to 1997 when it split. Then Preseli till 2005 and Carms West 2010 , so there is a recent Labour history. No other parties have come close.
    It will be an interesting contest as neither current MP are particularly popular.
    The Pembrokeshire seat actually disappeared in 1983 when North Pembrokeshire was combined with Cardigan. In 1992 Nick Ainger gained the residual Pembroke seat from the Tory - Nicholas Bennett. Similar boundaries may well operate next time.
    Bennett was very unpopular. I've met him!
    Will be interesting when boundaries changed.
    Because you met him? Or did you meet him because he was unpopular?

    I think we should be told

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    edited April 2021
    Charles said:

    Floater said:
    Like my daughters school

    They were told to rewrite a “fairy tale” to “include social justice” in it

    She tried to use The Lion, the Witch & the Wardrobe & it was thrown out as “not being a fairy story”... but they let her use something with aliens in it instead
    Wikipedia tells me that A Christmas Carol counts as a English Fairy Tale, so in future I'd suggest just using that, as very few rewrites would be needed.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,083
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    These tweets are really useless. They say it's breaking but they are just repeating another news outlet, and they don't even give the link to the story.
    I love the classic 'The [media outlet] understands', that is, they read the story on someone else's site, which for obvious reasons they usually don't link to.

    But one annoying thing is when referencing, say, a government report, some outlets hardly ever seem to link to those reports (they have gotten a little better at linking externally though, so perhaps this is improving at last). As slanted and biased as Guido is, and thus only useful to a degree, he does at least usually put up full copies of that sort of thing.
    One thing that Daily Rant has done well during the pandemic, when they do an article on new COVID research, they nornally provide the link to the paper. Most newspapers / media outlets haven't done this, so no idea if it is a journalist being a moron or not.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    I would wonder if the government had lost their minds, were it not for the minor detail I never thought they found them in the first place.
    That really is going to cause a fabulous number of law suits if they push ahead with it.

    No legal requirement to have the app but you are not allowed back into the office without it.
    Companies try to force people to have the app - which is a change in their terms and conditions.
    People refuse.
    Company left with choice. Sack people and face unfair dismissal legal action or back down and people allowed to work from home indefinitely.

    The Government are genuinely mad if they try to force this through.
    What about people without smartphones? If it's 25% of the population as a whole, it must be over a third of the 40+ population.
    So the possibilities.
    1 The Johnson government has already reached the "in the bunker detached from reality" phase that Thatcher reached in about 1989 and none of her successors really attained.

    2 They know it's a scam, it's never going to happen, but the calculation is that it's in their partisan interest to propose it. Either because it polls well now, or it will allow a " we're so great, we don't need to do this after all" moment in three months' time.

    I must have missed something else for 3.

    To restate the b#++@#y obvious;

    The UK has already done enough jabs to stop pretty much all the foreseeable Covid deaths; say 90%. The EU isn't there yet, but will be there in a few weeks' time.

    The UK will hit herd immunity in June and everyone who can be done will be done in July.

    The time window where vaxports are needed internally is really short. So the benefits don't outweigh the costs in cash and national cohesion.
    Option 3 is there is a small group of anti vaxxers who can be turned by convincing them that life with jabs will be brutish, nasty and short.
    You might want to reread that last sentence.
    Was too late to edit when I saw but meant “without” obviously
    Didn't some publisher get in a LOT of trouble way back when, due to the same thing?

    "Thou shalt commit adultery."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,083

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It didn't take Israel 6 months to do this.
  • In terms of the Welsh boundaries:

    4 Lab seats go in Glamorgan and Gwent but they can probably flip Bridgend
    1 goes in Dyfed - likely PC
    Gwynedd, Conwy and Montgomeryshire are grouped for 3 (-1 PC)
    Denbighshire gets 1
    Flintshire and Wrexham get 3 (likely 2 Con, 1 Lab). So - 2 Con in the NE

    So my best guess is -3 Lab, -3 Con, -2 PC but there will be plenty of marginals up for grabs.
  • Time_to_LeaveTime_to_Leave Posts: 2,547
    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    Floater said:
    Like my daughters school

    They were told to rewrite a “fairy tale” to “include social justice” in it

    She tried to use The Lion, the Witch & the Wardrobe & it was thrown out as “not being a fairy story”... but they let her use something with aliens in it instead
    Wikipedia tells me that A Christmas Carol counts as a English Fairy Tale, so in future I'd suggest just using that, as very few rewrites would be needed.
    I think there’s an argument to be made that all fairy stories include a sense of social justice, as that was rather the point of them....
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,601

    Apologies if someone has done this or I've miscalculated, but screaming arb.

    Rose to lay for London Mayor back in to 22 at Smarkets.
    "Any other party" to win at Betfair 32 right now but 46 was getting taken earlier

    Though personally I'm not hedging!

    I've just laid some more on Rose at 17. It's quite ridiculous. I'm almost embarrassed to be taking this money.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    When you put it like that...

    It sounds like an insurance policy.

    Open in the summer but if cases rise going into next winter they can either use the vaxport system or close until spring
    Of course it’s an insurance policy. Even if we don’t need it this year (I suspect we will, sadly, because mutations) then we will need something very like it, ready to roll in a minute. Just as the South Koreans did, after SARS, hence their incredible success against Covid

    Also, anyone who wants a foreign holiday or a flight will need one of these anyhow

    Also also, they encourage the vaccine-hesitant to get a jab. See my link below. Israel is already doing it

    Has the collective IQ of PB dropped by 26 points? All the above is obvious
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    When you put it like that...

    It sounds like an insurance policy.

    Open in the summer but if cases rise going into next winter they can either use the vaxport system or close until spring
    Given what we know of the vax campaign - vast bulk of old and vulnerable done, and take-up likely to be very high amongst the young as well - there will be no conceivable value to the vax passport ID card scheme by the time it's up and running, and if the Government tries to shut everything down for the Winter on the basis of a bit of a flu spike then it can kiss re-election goodbye.

    Enough of this nonsense.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Charles said:

    Andy_JS said:

    ydoethur said:

    I would wonder if the government had lost their minds, were it not for the minor detail I never thought they found them in the first place.
    That really is going to cause a fabulous number of law suits if they push ahead with it.

    No legal requirement to have the app but you are not allowed back into the office without it.
    Companies try to force people to have the app - which is a change in their terms and conditions.
    People refuse.
    Company left with choice. Sack people and face unfair dismissal legal action or back down and people allowed to work from home indefinitely.

    The Government are genuinely mad if they try to force this through.
    What about people without smartphones? If it's 25% of the population as a whole, it must be over a third of the 40+ population.
    So the possibilities.
    1 The Johnson government has already reached the "in the bunker detached from reality" phase that Thatcher reached in about 1989 and none of her successors really attained.

    2 They know it's a scam, it's never going to happen, but the calculation is that it's in their partisan interest to propose it. Either because it polls well now, or it will allow a " we're so great, we don't need to do this after all" moment in three months' time.

    I must have missed something else for 3.

    To restate the b#++@#y obvious;

    The UK has already done enough jabs to stop pretty much all the foreseeable Covid deaths; say 90%. The EU isn't there yet, but will be there in a few weeks' time.

    The UK will hit herd immunity in June and everyone who can be done will be done in July.

    The time window where vaxports are needed internally is really short. So the benefits don't outweigh the costs in cash and national cohesion.
    Option 3 is there is a small group of anti vaxxers who can be turned by convincing them that life with jabs will be brutish, nasty and short.
    You might want to reread that last sentence.
    Was too late to edit when I saw but meant “without” obviously
    Didn't some publisher get in a LOT of trouble way back when, due to the same thing?

    "Thou shalt commit adultery."
    My favourite is the “treacle bible”

    “There is no more treacle in Gilead” according to Jeremiah

    They had a beautiful edition in St George’s Chapel when I was Chief Steward.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    In terms of the Welsh boundaries:

    4 Lab seats go in Glamorgan and Gwent but they can probably flip Bridgend
    1 goes in Dyfed - likely PC
    Gwynedd, Conwy and Montgomeryshire are grouped for 3 (-1 PC)
    Denbighshire gets 1
    Flintshire and Wrexham get 3 (likely 2 Con, 1 Lab). So - 2 Con in the NE

    So my best guess is -3 Lab, -3 Con, -2 PC but there will be plenty of marginals up for grabs.

    That was more like my best guess, too.
    Btw. They won't be "flipping" Bridgend. Rather the successor seat will expand. And take in more Labour friendly territory.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Leon said:

    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    When you put it like that...

    It sounds like an insurance policy.

    Open in the summer but if cases rise going into next winter they can either use the vaxport system or close until spring
    Of course it’s an insurance policy. Even if we don’t need it this year (I suspect we will, sadly, because mutations) then we will need something very like it, ready to roll in a minute. Just as the South Koreans did, after SARS, hence their incredible success against Covid

    Also, anyone who wants a foreign holiday or a flight will need one of these anyhow

    Also also, they encourage the vaccine-hesitant to get a jab. See my link below. Israel is already doing it

    Has the collective IQ of PB dropped by 26 points? All the above is obvious
    If it has, it will be still be higher than the average person who supports this 'papers please' mentality.

    No-one has yet explained to me why we don't need these against e.g. Measles?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    Quite.

    The good news, as I said a few days ago, is it won't be built correctly in the first place because of some massive architectural flaw. So it will go back to the drawing board. And then there will be a JR. Around November they may have a MVP. By which people will laugh at a government who thought such a ridiculous waste of time was required.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Charles said:

    Floater said:
    Like my daughters school

    They were told to rewrite a “fairy tale” to “include social justice” in it

    She tried to use The Lion, the Witch & the Wardrobe & it was thrown out as “not being a fairy story”... but they let her use something with aliens in it instead
    The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe not a fairy story?

    Far more of a fairy story than anything with aliens, and a well known allegory.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Andy_JS said:

    Looks like the Russians are getting ready for another military campaign.

    All this to avoid talk about Vlad's love child...................
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,710
    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    Floater said:
    Like my daughters school

    They were told to rewrite a “fairy tale” to “include social justice” in it

    She tried to use The Lion, the Witch & the Wardrobe & it was thrown out as “not being a fairy story”... but they let her use something with aliens in it instead
    Wikipedia tells me that A Christmas Carol counts as a English Fairy Tale, so in future I'd suggest just using that, as very few rewrites would be needed.
    It's quite an interesting challenge. I would suggest Bob Cratchett leads a workers revolt, organises a rent strike by Scrooges tenants. This causes Scrooges shareholders to call in his debts bankrupting him. The receiver appoints Cratchett as CEO of the organisation, which is incorporated as a workers co-operative. Being a good hearted soul, Cratchett employs Scrooge as clerk, with special responsibility for organising the works Christmas party.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Why? That's pathetic.

    Israel's app was launched back in February. I see no reason why one couldn't be ready for 21 June, given Israel had one ready for 4 February.
  • Barnesian said:

    Apologies if someone has done this or I've miscalculated, but screaming arb.

    Rose to lay for London Mayor back in to 22 at Smarkets.
    "Any other party" to win at Betfair 32 right now but 46 was getting taken earlier

    Though personally I'm not hedging!

    I've just laid some more on Rose at 17. It's quite ridiculous. I'm almost embarrassed to be taking this money.
    I made hundreds betting that Trump would lose, in early January, so I'm not too embarrassed here. At least the election hasn't happened yet!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Why? That's pathetic.

    Israel's app was launched back in February. I see no reason why one couldn't be ready for 21 June, given Israel had one ready for 4 February.
    Shall we add innovative and reliable app developer to your impressive list of spheres of expertise, Philip?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,706
    MattW said:
    There's no-one in the SNP talking more shite than Pete Wishart at the moment.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,083
    Floater said:
    Had to cancel their holidays to places like Salisbury...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,710
    Loyalists rioting now though, and attacking the police.

    What goes around comes around.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Why? That's pathetic.

    Israel's app was launched back in February. I see no reason why one couldn't be ready for 21 June, given Israel had one ready for 4 February.
    Israel has got the most advanced digitised medical records system in the world, one of the most technologically adept governments in the world and massive private sector resources that will do the work. We have the NHS, civil service and the usual third rate public sector contract companies that charge the earth and deliver bullshit. Theoretically my guys could whip up a workable app based on the internal skills we have and base it on GCP, probably in a couple of weeks. However, the people building it won't have that level of competency and freedom to get on with the job.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,870
    Andy_JS said:

    Looks like the Russians are getting ready for another military campaign.

    "Tsar Alexander reached Paris!" - Stalin, 1945.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    Quite.

    The good news, as I said a few days ago, is it won't be built correctly in the first place because of some massive architectural flaw. So it will go back to the drawing board. And then there will be a JR. Around November they may have a MVP. By which people will laugh at a government who thought such a ridiculous waste of time was required.
    Except that EU countries are bringing them in. And international airlines are demanding them. Apart from that, they are a ridiculous waste of time and won’t happen. Ok
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    Quite.

    The good news, as I said a few days ago, is it won't be built correctly in the first place because of some massive architectural flaw. So it will go back to the drawing board. And then there will be a JR. Around November they may have a MVP. By which people will laugh at a government who thought such a ridiculous waste of time was required.
    Except that EU countries are bringing them in. And international airlines are demanding them. Apart from that, they are a ridiculous waste of time and won’t happen. Ok
    Moving your goalposts again are you?

    We are not talking about your obsession for airlines and borders (anyone would think you were a travel writer), we're talking about demanding papers for domestic uses. Absolutely idiotic, a massively failure of public health policy, a civil liberties abomination and decidedly unBritish.

    The fearties can just stay in the jungle forever if they like; the rest of the county wants to crack on with normal life.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    Quite.

    The good news, as I said a few days ago, is it won't be built correctly in the first place because of some massive architectural flaw. So it will go back to the drawing board. And then there will be a JR. Around November they may have a MVP. By which people will laugh at a government who thought such a ridiculous waste of time was required.
    Except that EU countries are bringing them in. And international airlines are demanding them. Apart from that, they are a ridiculous waste of time and won’t happen. Ok
    For international use, that's a completely different prospect as it will most likely be attached to the existing system that works internationally and may even be accessible for Amadeus.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    Quite.

    The good news, as I said a few days ago, is it won't be built correctly in the first place because of some massive architectural flaw. So it will go back to the drawing board. And then there will be a JR. Around November they may have a MVP. By which people will laugh at a government who thought such a ridiculous waste of time was required.
    Except that EU countries are bringing them in. And international airlines are demanding them. Apart from that, they are a ridiculous waste of time and won’t happen. Ok
    Moving your goalposts again are you?

    We are not talking about your obsession for airlines and borders (anyone would think you were a travel writer), we're talking about demanding papers for domestic uses. Absolutely idiotic, a massively failure of public health policy, a civil liberties abomination and decidedly unBritish.

    The fearties can just stay in the jungle forever if they like; the rest of the county wants to crack on with normal life.
    But your obsessions collide with, well, reality. If it can be done internationally it can be done domestically. There is no technological problem. Might the government shy from the fence because of some diehard libertarians? Perhaps. But I doubt it. They will bring it in for a few months to nudge the vax-hesitant. That is the biggest win
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380
    valleyboy said:

    justin124 said:

    valleyboy said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Under the FTPA the latest an election can be held is the 2nd of July 2024.

    Repealing the FTPA isn't as easy as assumed, it's going to be tricky trying to restore a royal prerogative power especially as the government is going to argue the prerogative powers are not judicially reviewable, that's why the government has got the Lords involved at this early stage.

    Perhaps you'd care to clarify? - seems out of line with the 'five year term'.
    Click the download report here

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06111/

    On page 8 you'll notice this

    Following the early election, in December 2019, the next election is scheduled to take place on 2 May 2024. Parliament will be dissolved on 26 March 2024.

    and

    There is provision for the Prime Minister to make an order to extend this date for a maximum of two months to deal with unexpected developments. He/she must set out the reasons for the delay, and such an order must be approved by both Houses of Parliament before it can be made. One precedent is the foot and mouth disease outbreak in 2001 which delayed local elections by one month. (In 2001, the general election was held on the same day as the delayed local elections.)
    Thanks. I hadn't appreciated that May was explicitly favoued.

    Ok, so May 2024 is an even more likely date than I'd thought.
    I think May 2024 will be the date for GE simply for no other reason that boundary changes recommendations will not be received until July 2023.

    The primary legislation has been passed but I suspect there may be issues from the Welsh and the Tories (if the Tories look like they will win Wales) about reducing the Welsh number of MPs by 20%.
    The Tories are more likely to favour the reduction in seats because it makes it plausible for them to win Wales. It’s the Valleys where the heaviest cuts will fall and although the Tories have made progress there they’re still not in serious contention to win any seats on current boundaries except possibly Gower and a very long shot at Blaenau Gwent.

    Plus the changes if along the lines proposed would exterminate Labour outside the south, cut Plaid Cymru in half by costing them the current Carmarthen East and Ceredigion seats and leave Newport and Llanelli both looking vulnerable to a fairly modest Tory swing.

    So I do not see that as a problem. There might be a couple of cases of two Tory MPs fighting for the same seat in the north east but actually there are enough tempting targets to go round to buy off any losers.
    I was talking more about the optics, it isn't inconceivable that the Tories win* the Senedd elections next month that creates momentum for them for them in the GE, it'll be easy attack line for Labour to use about the Tories reducing Welsh influence in Parliament when they need it the most.
    I do not think that will resonate outside the Cardiff/Swansea/Merthyr triangle, if I’m honest. The immediate riposte is ‘you’ve had influence for years and things keep getting worse. Let’s try influencing the other lot.’

    Bear in mind, there is only one seat Labour have never held at any level in Wales. They’ve held all the others at one time or another and done fuck all with it. A trade Union exec once told me with a straight face that Nicholas Edwards had done far more for Wales than ever Peter Hain did (On the one occasion I met him, Edwards himself agreed, incidentally, and wasn’t amused when I tripped him up over one or two of his claims).

    So I think there isn’t a problem for the Tories in cutting seats outside the Valleys, and there aren’t many likely to go there anyway, while inside the valleys it will make no difference anyway.
    Aren't a number of seats in North Wales to go too? Labour only holds one of them.
    The way the boundaries were being drawn, with Anglesey protected, that Labour seat is in effect the only one that goes.

    There might be a bit of a scuffle between the MP for Montgomeryshire and one of the Clwyd seats, but elsewhere it’s as you were.

    In the south west, helpfully, the redrawn seats pitch incumbent Tories against incumbent PC.
    It doesn't appear to me as if there are sufficient seats in the North to go round for the available Tory MPs, even if we assume that the successor to the current Alyn & Deeside flips Lab to Con and that one extra seat is added, relative to the 2019 proposals, since Wales is now to receive 32 rather than 29 MPs. I guess that whoever is left without a chair when the music stops will be sent to try to lift Ceredigion plus whatever gets tacked onto it from Plaid, although then again I'm not sure I'd much fancy their chances. They might actually have more luck trying to prise Llanelli away from Labour, if it ends up having some more rural hinterland tacked onto it.
    Stephen Crabbe will be the candidate in Ceredigion and North Pembs unless he retires.

    Edit - and I would very much fancy their chances there, on current boundaries it would be a fairly comfortable Tory hold.

    Llanelli is another one the Tories might begin to challenge in.
    Cardigan has never elected a Tory as far as I know - it was Labour-held by Elystan Morgan 1966 - Feb 1974. Rural North Pembrokeshire tends to be less favourable for the Tories than South Pembrokeshire - with significant pockets of support for Plaid and - periodically - the LDs. Tactical anti - Tory voting there might be more effective than many assume.
    Crabb is not a natural fit there and most of his current seat would be likely to fall into the residual Pembroke seat. He is a Scot by birth - and not obviously culturally Welsh really.
    Quite. If the net effect of the boundary changes is not dissimilar to those previously proposed in 2018, then one would've thought that the two sitting Tories in the South West would go for the Carmarthen and Pembroke seats and leave the Ceredigion one well alone.
    The Carmarthen seat would be a likely Plaid hold - and Pembroke would be vulnerable to Labour in a reasonable year as evidenced by the 1992 result there.
    You think? Carmarthen East is a marginal and Plaid are nowhere in Carmarthen West & S Pembs.

    The Pembroke seat's not going to Labour unless there's a fairly hefty swing (7% at a rough guess.)

    justin124 said:

    justin124 said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    dixiedean said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    Omnium said:

    Omnium said:

    Under the FTPA the latest an election can be held is the 2nd of July 2024.

    Repealing the FTPA isn't as easy as assumed, it's going to be tricky trying to restore a royal prerogative power especially as the government is going to argue the prerogative powers are not judicially reviewable, that's why the government has got the Lords involved at this early stage.

    Perhaps you'd care to clarify? - seems out of line with the 'five year term'.
    Click the download report here

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/sn06111/

    On page 8 you'll notice this

    Following the early election, in December 2019, the next election is scheduled to take place on 2 May 2024. Parliament will be dissolved on 26 March 2024.

    and

    There is provision for the Prime Minister to make an order to extend this date for a maximum of two months to deal with unexpected developments. He/she must set out the reasons for the delay, and such an order must be approved by both Houses of Parliament before it can be made. One precedent is the foot and mouth disease outbreak in 2001 which delayed local elections by one month. (In 2001, the general election was held on the same day as the delayed local elections.)
    Thanks. I hadn't appreciated that May was explicitly favoued.

    Ok, so May 2024 is an even more likely date than I'd thought.
    I think May 2024 will be the date for GE simply for no other reason that boundary changes recommendations will not be received until July 2023.

    The primary legislation has been passed but I suspect there may be issues from the Welsh and the Tories (if the Tories look like they will win Wales) about reducing the Welsh number of MPs by 20%.
    The Tories are more likely to favour the reduction in seats because it makes it plausible for them to win Wales. It’s the Valleys where the heaviest cuts will fall and although the Tories have made progress there they’re still not in serious contention to win any seats on current boundaries except possibly Gower and a very long shot at Blaenau Gwent.

    Plus the changes if along the lines proposed would exterminate Labour outside the south, cut Plaid Cymru in half by costing them the current Carmarthen East and Ceredigion seats and leave Newport and Llanelli both looking vulnerable to a fairly modest Tory swing.

    So I do not see that as a problem. There might be a couple of cases of two Tory MPs fighting for the same seat in the north east but actually there are enough tempting targets to go round to buy off any losers.
    I was talking more about the optics, it isn't inconceivable that the Tories win* the Senedd elections next month that creates momentum for them for them in the GE, it'll be easy attack line for Labour to use about the Tories reducing Welsh influence in Parliament when they need it the most.
    I do not think that will resonate outside the Cardiff/Swansea/Merthyr triangle, if I’m honest. The immediate riposte is ‘you’ve had influence for years and things keep getting worse. Let’s try influencing the other lot.’

    Bear in mind, there is only one seat Labour have never held at any level in Wales. They’ve held all the others at one time or another and done fuck all with it. A trade Union exec once told me with a straight face that Nicholas Edwards had done far more for Wales than ever Peter Hain did (On the one occasion I met him, Edwards himself agreed, incidentally, and wasn’t amused when I tripped him up over one or two of his claims).

    So I think there isn’t a problem for the Tories in cutting seats outside the Valleys, and there aren’t many likely to go there anyway, while inside the valleys it will make no difference anyway.
    Aren't a number of seats in North Wales to go too? Labour only holds one of them.
    The way the boundaries were being drawn, with Anglesey protected, that Labour seat is in effect the only one that goes.

    There might be a bit of a scuffle between the MP for Montgomeryshire and one of the Clwyd seats, but elsewhere it’s as you were.

    In the south west, helpfully, the redrawn seats pitch incumbent Tories against incumbent PC.
    It doesn't appear to me as if there are sufficient seats in the North to go round for the available Tory MPs, even if we assume that the successor to the current Alyn & Deeside flips Lab to Con and that one extra seat is added, relative to the 2019 proposals, since Wales is now to receive 32 rather than 29 MPs. I guess that whoever is left without a chair when the music stops will be sent to try to lift Ceredigion plus whatever gets tacked onto it from Plaid, although then again I'm not sure I'd much fancy their chances. They might actually have more luck trying to prise Llanelli away from Labour, if it ends up having some more rural hinterland tacked onto it.
    Stephen Crabbe will be the candidate in Ceredigion and North Pembs unless he retires.

    Edit - and I would very much fancy their chances there, on current boundaries it would be a fairly comfortable Tory hold.

    Llanelli is another one the Tories might begin to challenge in.
    Cardigan has never elected a Tory as far as I know - it was Labour-held by Elystan Morgan 1966 - Feb 1974. Rural North Pembrokeshire tends to be less favourable for the Tories than South Pembrokeshire - with significant pockets of support for Plaid and - periodically - the LDs. Tactical anti - Tory voting there might be more effective than many assume.
    Crabb is not a natural fit there and most of his current seat would be likely to fall into the residual Pembroke seat. He is a Scot by birth - and not obviously culturally Welsh really.
    Quite. If the net effect of the boundary changes is not dissimilar to those previously proposed in 2018, then one would've thought that the two sitting Tories in the South West would go for the Carmarthen and Pembroke seats and leave the Ceredigion one well alone.
    The Carmarthen seat would be a likely Plaid hold - and Pembroke would be vulnerable to Labour in a reasonable year as evidenced by the 1992 result there.
    You think? Carmarthen East is a marginal and Plaid are nowhere in Carmarthen West & S Pembs.

    The Pembroke seat's not going to Labour unless there's a fairly hefty swing (7% at a rough guess.)
    Not necessarily - Pembroke went Labour by 755 in 1992 when the Tories led across GB by 7.6%. Preseli Pembrokeshire nearly fell to Labour in 2017.
    Plaid is very weak in the S Pembs part of the Carmarthen West seat , but much stronger beyond the Pembrokeshire border.
    Much will depend on the new Pembrokeshire boundaries. It may be that a bit of Cardigan will be included which could help the labour vote.
    The county was red from 1992 to 1997 when it split. Then Preseli till 2005 and Carms West 2010 , so there is a recent Labour history. No other parties have come close.
    It will be an interesting contest as neither current MP are particularly popular.
    The Pembrokeshire seat actually disappeared in 1983 when North Pembrokeshire was combined with Cardigan. In 1992 Nick Ainger gained the residual Pembroke seat from the Tory - Nicholas Bennett. Similar boundaries may well operate next time.
    Bennett was very unpopular. I've met him!
    Will be interesting when boundaries changed.
    Wasn't it claimed that Bennett had his constituency home in Llandewi Velfrey, because it was about as close as he could get to London and still be in the constituency?

    Mind you, I wasn't much of a fan of Ainger's either.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,671
    Floater said:
    Volunteers with access to BUKs?

    Best avoid overflying the area.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Floater said:
    Volunteers with access to BUKs?

    Best avoid overflying the area.
    I was thinking the same thing
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    Quite.

    The good news, as I said a few days ago, is it won't be built correctly in the first place because of some massive architectural flaw. So it will go back to the drawing board. And then there will be a JR. Around November they may have a MVP. By which people will laugh at a government who thought such a ridiculous waste of time was required.
    Except that EU countries are bringing them in. And international airlines are demanding them. Apart from that, they are a ridiculous waste of time and won’t happen. Ok
    Moving your goalposts again are you?

    We are not talking about your obsession for airlines and borders (anyone would think you were a travel writer), we're talking about demanding papers for domestic uses. Absolutely idiotic, a massively failure of public health policy, a civil liberties abomination and decidedly unBritish.

    The fearties can just stay in the jungle forever if they like; the rest of the county wants to crack on with normal life.
    But your obsessions collide with, well, reality. If it can be done internationally it can be done domestically. There is no technological problem. Might the government shy from the fence because of some diehard libertarians? Perhaps. But I doubt it. They will bring it in for a few months to nudge the vax-hesitant. That is the biggest win
    It's not the same thing. Your understanding of the tech that is required is basically zero so don't embarrass yourself.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Leon said:

    Floater said:
    True story: my younger daughter, now 14, was witnessed doing a Hitler salute *in utero*. She would have got away with it, being a fetus, but she was caught via ultrasound, thank God. She’s been in re-education ever since birth and she can now only say ‘whiteness are evil innit’, when she’s not drooling. A lucky escape, frankly
    On Thursday my mates son and his friends found out that ‘konnichiwa’ was a Japanese greeting, and kept saying it to each other in the playground - two of them pulled their eyes back to look oriental, and the head teacher told them if they were ten years old instead of only nine she’d have called the police.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    Quite.

    The good news, as I said a few days ago, is it won't be built correctly in the first place because of some massive architectural flaw. So it will go back to the drawing board. And then there will be a JR. Around November they may have a MVP. By which people will laugh at a government who thought such a ridiculous waste of time was required.
    Except that EU countries are bringing them in. And international airlines are demanding them. Apart from that, they are a ridiculous waste of time and won’t happen. Ok
    Moving your goalposts again are you?

    We are not talking about your obsession for airlines and borders (anyone would think you were a travel writer), we're talking about demanding papers for domestic uses. Absolutely idiotic, a massively failure of public health policy, a civil liberties abomination and decidedly unBritish.

    The fearties can just stay in the jungle forever if they like; the rest of the county wants to crack on with normal life.
    But your obsessions collide with, well, reality. If it can be done internationally it can be done domestically. There is no technological problem. Might the government shy from the fence because of some diehard libertarians? Perhaps. But I doubt it. They will bring it in for a few months to nudge the vax-hesitant. That is the biggest win
    I think that party has gone to your head. Or maybe your flint napping has taken you back to the stone age. Technology is one of the many hurdles. The most important one, however, is that it won't be necessary....

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,617
    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    Quite.

    The good news, as I said a few days ago, is it won't be built correctly in the first place because of some massive architectural flaw. So it will go back to the drawing board. And then there will be a JR. Around November they may have a MVP. By which people will laugh at a government who thought such a ridiculous waste of time was required.
    Except that EU countries are bringing them in. And international airlines are demanding them. Apart from that, they are a ridiculous waste of time and won’t happen. Ok
    Moving your goalposts again are you?

    We are not talking about your obsession for airlines and borders (anyone would think you were a travel writer), we're talking about demanding papers for domestic uses. Absolutely idiotic, a massively failure of public health policy, a civil liberties abomination and decidedly unBritish.

    The fearties can just stay in the jungle forever if they like; the rest of the county wants to crack on with normal life.
    But your obsessions collide with, well, reality. If it can be done internationally it can be done domestically. There is no technological problem. Might the government shy from the fence because of some diehard libertarians? Perhaps. But I doubt it. They will bring it in for a few months to nudge the vax-hesitant. That is the biggest win
    You must have become an enfeebled degenerate to think today was freezing.

    Time to dispense with your wearied urban soul and delicate eloi physique and rediscover your Nietzschean superman by seeing some of England during this wonderful spring weather.
  • MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    I don't agree with this. The verification function can be quite separate from a track-and-trace function, and doesn't need online access. (Also 100,000 requests per second is the entire population in 10 minutes, which doesn't seem very realistic.) I'm not saying that they *will* do this well, and temptation to centralize a database they could much more sensibly be federal will cause them trouble, but a scalable design is easy to envisage.

    (I've done consultancy on projects not dissimilar to this.)

    --AS
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    Quite.

    The good news, as I said a few days ago, is it won't be built correctly in the first place because of some massive architectural flaw. So it will go back to the drawing board. And then there will be a JR. Around November they may have a MVP. By which people will laugh at a government who thought such a ridiculous waste of time was required.
    Except that EU countries are bringing them in. And international airlines are demanding them. Apart from that, they are a ridiculous waste of time and won’t happen. Ok
    Moving your goalposts again are you?

    We are not talking about your obsession for airlines and borders (anyone would think you were a travel writer), we're talking about demanding papers for domestic uses. Absolutely idiotic, a massively failure of public health policy, a civil liberties abomination and decidedly unBritish.

    The fearties can just stay in the jungle forever if they like; the rest of the county wants to crack on with normal life.
    But your obsessions collide with, well, reality. If it can be done internationally it can be done domestically. There is no technological problem. Might the government shy from the fence because of some diehard libertarians? Perhaps. But I doubt it. They will bring it in for a few months to nudge the vax-hesitant. That is the biggest win
    You must have become an enfeebled degenerate to think today was freezing.

    Time to dispense with your wearied urban soul and delicate eloi physique and rediscover your Nietzschean superman by seeing some of England during this wonderful spring weather.
    Minus 2 here Tuesday
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    Quite.

    The good news, as I said a few days ago, is it won't be built correctly in the first place because of some massive architectural flaw. So it will go back to the drawing board. And then there will be a JR. Around November they may have a MVP. By which people will laugh at a government who thought such a ridiculous waste of time was required.
    Except that EU countries are bringing them in. And international airlines are demanding them. Apart from that, they are a ridiculous waste of time and won’t happen. Ok
    Moving your goalposts again are you?

    We are not talking about your obsession for airlines and borders (anyone would think you were a travel writer), we're talking about demanding papers for domestic uses. Absolutely idiotic, a massively failure of public health policy, a civil liberties abomination and decidedly unBritish.

    The fearties can just stay in the jungle forever if they like; the rest of the county wants to crack on with normal life.
    But your obsessions collide with, well, reality. If it can be done internationally it can be done domestically. There is no technological problem. Might the government shy from the fence because of some diehard libertarians? Perhaps. But I doubt it. They will bring it in for a few months to nudge the vax-hesitant. That is the biggest win
    It's not the same thing. Your understanding of the tech that is required is basically zero so don't embarrass yourself.
    The tech can be as advanced or as primitive as the government deems necessary. Eg I have to show a bar code to get in my gym. It could literally be that simple, you get your second jab, HMG sends you a barcode or a QR code which deems you vax-safe. Yes, this is highly open to abuse or duplicity, but then, this is just a code to get into a soccer match or a festival. Who is going to game this, and manipulate it: what’s the point?

    All the government needs is 85% take up and it does the job. It is just meant to nudge society.

    Your feverish wet dreams of a surveillance society have sent you down a mental cul de sac. The government does not wish to observe our every genital twitch. It wants to assist society to reopen
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Why? That's pathetic.

    Israel's app was launched back in February. I see no reason why one couldn't be ready for 21 June, given Israel had one ready for 4 February.
    Shall we add innovative and reliable app developer to your impressive list of spheres of expertise, Philip?
    No absolutely not.

    Just seems typical of this country though that it takes months to do what other nations can do in weeks, years to do what other nations can do within months.

    If we're spending billions on a project it ought to be possible to get the best brains in the world who can build something reliable quickly, like the Israelis did.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Barnesian said:

    Apologies if someone has done this or I've miscalculated, but screaming arb.

    Rose to lay for London Mayor back in to 22 at Smarkets.
    "Any other party" to win at Betfair 32 right now but 46 was getting taken earlier

    Though personally I'm not hedging!

    I've just laid some more on Rose at 17. It's quite ridiculous. I'm almost embarrassed to be taking this money.
    Laying Rose is a bet so outrageously nailed on I honestly wouldn't object to people borrowing money to wager on it. I'm not outright recommending that, and I haven't done it, but it is a very rare example of an actual sure-fire winner.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Have I got this right...a vaccine passport to go to a comedy club "later this month".

    And only over-50s have been vaccinated.

    Dear God.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MaxPB said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Why? That's pathetic.

    Israel's app was launched back in February. I see no reason why one couldn't be ready for 21 June, given Israel had one ready for 4 February.
    Israel has got the most advanced digitised medical records system in the world, one of the most technologically adept governments in the world and massive private sector resources that will do the work. We have the NHS, civil service and the usual third rate public sector contract companies that charge the earth and deliver bullshit. Theoretically my guys could whip up a workable app based on the internal skills we have and base it on GCP, probably in a couple of weeks. However, the people building it won't have that level of competency and freedom to get on with the job.
    If we're getting the civil service and third rate public sector contractors involved then that is part of the problem.

    The Vaccine Task Force didn't rely upon third rate contractors or the civil service. If this damn silly thing is going to be done, it ought to be done properly. The VTF contracted some of the best people in the world, that's how it succeeded. Bloody imbeciles if they're doing this scheme and not doing the same now.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    TOPPING said:

    Have I got this right...a vaccine passport to go to a comedy club "later this month".

    And only over-50s have been vaccinated.

    Dear God.

    Gonna be a golden couple of months for politically incorrect comics.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    Quincel said:

    TOPPING said:

    Have I got this right...a vaccine passport to go to a comedy club "later this month".

    And only over-50s have been vaccinated.

    Dear God.

    Gonna be a golden couple of months for politically incorrect comics.
    They'll have to shout and be done by 9pm I imagine.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited April 2021
    The picture used on the BBC website to illustrate the vaccine passport for comedy clubs is of 20-30 yr olds in an audience.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    edited April 2021
    TOPPING said:

    Have I got this right...a vaccine passport to go to a comedy club "later this month".

    And only over-50s have been vaccinated.

    Dear God.

    I thought Gove was bright.

    Doesn't he realise this is an absolute albatross?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    I don't agree with this. The verification function can be quite separate from a track-and-trace function, and doesn't need online access. (Also 100,000 requests per second is the entire population in 10 minutes, which doesn't seem very realistic.) I'm not saying that they *will* do this well, and temptation to centralize a database they could much more sensibly be federal will cause them trouble, but a scalable design is easy to envisage.

    (I've done consultancy on projects not dissimilar to this.)

    --AS
    The verification system will need a secure chain. The point is the peak usage will be very high as on weekends sports stadiums will be open all over the country and millions of people will go to football matches at 3pm. The Premier League alone will have around 1m spectators per weekend in a short space of time, then you've got championship and other sports as well with similar usage times. Then in the evenings clubs and bars will also have very high peak usage from 9pm to 12am.

    The database would need to be a row ordered single source of truth running on mega cluster on AWS or GCP with capacity for at least 100k simultaneous accesses. As far as databases go it's not such a big deal IMO. It's the secure chain and giving access to every Tom, Dick and Harry in the country while maintaining some kind of security over the information in it. That isn't going to be easy. For international travel it is because they can link any system to Amadeus and essential airlines can require it during the booking process.

    I think the temptation will be to go with a dual app system with a BYOD on the check side, but that would be horribly insecure.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TOPPING said:

    The picture used on the BBC website to illustrate the vaccine passport for comedy clubs is of 20-30 yr olds in an audience.

    Probably just a stock image.

    Though bear in mind a quarter of that age group have actually been vaccinated. People tend to forget that.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    edited April 2021

    TOPPING said:

    The picture used on the BBC website to illustrate the vaccine passport for comedy clubs is of 20-30 yr olds in an audience.

    Probably just a stock image.

    Though bear in mind a quarter of that age group have actually been vaccinated. People tend to forget that.
    And a large % have actually had Covid.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,586
    If someone is using an app on a phone as a vaccine certificate, how does that prove identity? You might be borrowing a phone belonging to another member of your family who's had the jab, whereas you haven't.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    Quite.

    The good news, as I said a few days ago, is it won't be built correctly in the first place because of some massive architectural flaw. So it will go back to the drawing board. And then there will be a JR. Around November they may have a MVP. By which people will laugh at a government who thought such a ridiculous waste of time was required.
    Except that EU countries are bringing them in. And international airlines are demanding them. Apart from that, they are a ridiculous waste of time and won’t happen. Ok
    Moving your goalposts again are you?

    We are not talking about your obsession for airlines and borders (anyone would think you were a travel writer), we're talking about demanding papers for domestic uses. Absolutely idiotic, a massively failure of public health policy, a civil liberties abomination and decidedly unBritish.

    The fearties can just stay in the jungle forever if they like; the rest of the county wants to crack on with normal life.
    But your obsessions collide with, well, reality. If it can be done internationally it can be done domestically. There is no technological problem. Might the government shy from the fence because of some diehard libertarians? Perhaps. But I doubt it. They will bring it in for a few months to nudge the vax-hesitant. That is the biggest win
    It's not the same thing. Your understanding of the tech that is required is basically zero so don't embarrass yourself.
    The tech can be as advanced or as primitive as the government deems necessary. Eg I have to show a bar code to get in my gym. It could literally be that simple, you get your second jab, HMG sends you a barcode or a QR code which deems you vax-safe. Yes, this is highly open to abuse or duplicity, but then, this is just a code to get into a soccer match or a festival. Who is going to game this, and manipulate it: what’s the point?

    All the government needs is 85% take up and it does the job. It is just meant to nudge society.

    Your feverish wet dreams of a surveillance society have sent you down a mental cul de sac. The government does not wish to observe our every genital twitch. It wants to assist society to reopen
    You're buying into their bullshit narrative that we need this to reopen. We don't. We need vaccines to reopen and we've got them. Everything else is a distraction. You're in favour of them because the government has scared you into thinking they're a necessity. The moment you realise they aren't you'll realise they're just an unnecessary intrusion into everyone's lives.

    For someone who has boasted about living on the edge of the law and being a rebellious cunt for years the fact that you're meekly falling into line ready comply with the lockdown and zero COVID ultras so they can gift you your life back is a bit disappointing.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,586
    Floater said:
    Didn't we just have a government report that said this sort of thing was a load of nonsense?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    I don't agree with this. The verification function can be quite separate from a track-and-trace function, and doesn't need online access. (Also 100,000 requests per second is the entire population in 10 minutes, which doesn't seem very realistic.) I'm not saying that they *will* do this well, and temptation to centralize a database they could much more sensibly be federal will cause them trouble, but a scalable design is easy to envisage.

    (I've done consultancy on projects not dissimilar to this.)

    --AS
    The verification system will need a secure chain. The point is the peak usage will be very high as on weekends sports stadiums will be open all over the country and millions of people will go to football matches at 3pm. The Premier League alone will have around 1m spectators per weekend in a short space of time, then you've got championship and other sports as well with similar usage times. Then in the evenings clubs and bars will also have very high peak usage from 9pm to 12am.

    The database would need to be a row ordered single source of truth running on mega cluster on AWS or GCP with capacity for at least 100k simultaneous accesses. As far as databases go it's not such a big deal IMO. It's the secure chain and giving access to every Tom, Dick and Harry in the country while maintaining some kind of security over the information in it. That isn't going to be easy. For international travel it is because they can link any system to Amadeus and essential airlines can require it during the booking process.

    I think the temptation will be to go with a dual app system with a BYOD on the check side, but that would be horribly insecure.
    Horribly insecure is fine. It’s a societal nudge
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Andy_JS said:

    If someone is using an app on a phone as a vaccine certificate, how does that prove identity? You might be borrowing a phone belonging to another member of your family who's had the jab, whereas you haven't.

    I may be missing a lot of complications, but can it not be a form of photo-ID like railcards? Mine is on my phone and has my picture and status.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    I don't agree with this. The verification function can be quite separate from a track-and-trace function, and doesn't need online access. (Also 100,000 requests per second is the entire population in 10 minutes, which doesn't seem very realistic.) I'm not saying that they *will* do this well, and temptation to centralize a database they could much more sensibly be federal will cause them trouble, but a scalable design is easy to envisage.

    (I've done consultancy on projects not dissimilar to this.)

    --AS
    The verification system will need a secure chain. The point is the peak usage will be very high as on weekends sports stadiums will be open all over the country and millions of people will go to football matches at 3pm. The Premier League alone will have around 1m spectators per weekend in a short space of time, then you've got championship and other sports as well with similar usage times. Then in the evenings clubs and bars will also have very high peak usage from 9pm to 12am.

    The database would need to be a row ordered single source of truth running on mega cluster on AWS or GCP with capacity for at least 100k simultaneous accesses. As far as databases go it's not such a big deal IMO. It's the secure chain and giving access to every Tom, Dick and Harry in the country while maintaining some kind of security over the information in it. That isn't going to be easy. For international travel it is because they can link any system to Amadeus and essential airlines can require it during the booking process.

    I think the temptation will be to go with a dual app system with a BYOD on the check side, but that would be horribly insecure.
    Horribly insecure is fine. It’s a societal nudge
    Great. So massive data leak. That is what you want, is it?

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2021
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    Quite.

    The good news, as I said a few days ago, is it won't be built correctly in the first place because of some massive architectural flaw. So it will go back to the drawing board. And then there will be a JR. Around November they may have a MVP. By which people will laugh at a government who thought such a ridiculous waste of time was required.
    Except that EU countries are bringing them in. And international airlines are demanding them. Apart from that, they are a ridiculous waste of time and won’t happen. Ok
    Moving your goalposts again are you?

    We are not talking about your obsession for airlines and borders (anyone would think you were a travel writer), we're talking about demanding papers for domestic uses. Absolutely idiotic, a massively failure of public health policy, a civil liberties abomination and decidedly unBritish.

    The fearties can just stay in the jungle forever if they like; the rest of the county wants to crack on with normal life.
    But your obsessions collide with, well, reality. If it can be done internationally it can be done domestically. There is no technological problem. Might the government shy from the fence because of some diehard libertarians? Perhaps. But I doubt it. They will bring it in for a few months to nudge the vax-hesitant. That is the biggest win
    It's not the same thing. Your understanding of the tech that is required is basically zero so don't embarrass yourself.
    The tech can be as advanced or as primitive as the government deems necessary. Eg I have to show a bar code to get in my gym. It could literally be that simple, you get your second jab, HMG sends you a barcode or a QR code which deems you vax-safe. Yes, this is highly open to abuse or duplicity, but then, this is just a code to get into a soccer match or a festival. Who is going to game this, and manipulate it: what’s the point?

    All the government needs is 85% take up and it does the job. It is just meant to nudge society.

    Your feverish wet dreams of a surveillance society have sent you down a mental cul de sac. The government does not wish to observe our every genital twitch. It wants to assist society to reopen
    You're buying into their bullshit narrative that we need this to reopen. We don't. We need vaccines to reopen and we've got them. Everything else is a distraction. You're in favour of them because the government has scared you into thinking they're a necessity. The moment you realise they aren't you'll realise they're just an unnecessary intrusion into everyone's lives.

    For someone who has boasted about living on the edge of the law and being a rebellious cunt for years the fact that you're meekly falling into line ready comply with the lockdown and zero COVID ultras so they can gift you your life back is a bit disappointing.
    This is like watching the scene in Cool Hand Luke when he had to keep digging trenches then fill them back in again, and eventually pleads with the guards to make it stop, leading to the other prisoners, who had until then lived vicariously through his rebelliousness, to disown him
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,586
    Quincel said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If someone is using an app on a phone as a vaccine certificate, how does that prove identity? You might be borrowing a phone belonging to another member of your family who's had the jab, whereas you haven't.

    I may be missing a lot of complications, but can it not be a form of photo-ID like railcards? Mine is on my phone and has my picture and status.
    I've got tickets for England vs New Zealand in June. It'll be interesting to see what happens.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Quincel said:

    Andy_JS said:

    If someone is using an app on a phone as a vaccine certificate, how does that prove identity? You might be borrowing a phone belonging to another member of your family who's had the jab, whereas you haven't.

    I may be missing a lot of complications, but can it not be a form of photo-ID like railcards? Mine is on my phone and has my picture and status.
    And mine is on a piece of paper.

    I won't be using any phone based app for this....
  • MonkeysMonkeys Posts: 757
    I might be way off, but the government suggesting there might be vaccine passports is probably useful in itself to motivate younger people to get vaccinated in the first place, even if the passports never materialise
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    WE NEED TO RETURN TO MILITANT CHRISTIANITY
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    Monkeys said:

    I might be way off, but the government suggesting there might be vaccine passports is probably useful in itself to motivate younger people to get vaccinated in the first place, even if the passports never materialise

    The delay of this month is really starting to grate now. Just get on with it so these farcical restrictions can stop and the fearties can see that the war with Covid is over, and they can come out of the jungle without a digital footprint required.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,586
    edited April 2021
    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    I don't agree with this. The verification function can be quite separate from a track-and-trace function, and doesn't need online access. (Also 100,000 requests per second is the entire population in 10 minutes, which doesn't seem very realistic.) I'm not saying that they *will* do this well, and temptation to centralize a database they could much more sensibly be federal will cause them trouble, but a scalable design is easy to envisage.

    (I've done consultancy on projects not dissimilar to this.)

    --AS
    The verification system will need a secure chain. The point is the peak usage will be very high as on weekends sports stadiums will be open all over the country and millions of people will go to football matches at 3pm. The Premier League alone will have around 1m spectators per weekend in a short space of time, then you've got championship and other sports as well with similar usage times. Then in the evenings clubs and bars will also have very high peak usage from 9pm to 12am.

    The database would need to be a row ordered single source of truth running on mega cluster on AWS or GCP with capacity for at least 100k simultaneous accesses. As far as databases go it's not such a big deal IMO. It's the secure chain and giving access to every Tom, Dick and Harry in the country while maintaining some kind of security over the information in it. That isn't going to be easy. For international travel it is because they can link any system to Amadeus and essential airlines can require it during the booking process.

    I think the temptation will be to go with a dual app system with a BYOD on the check side, but that would be horribly insecure.
    Horribly insecure is fine. It’s a societal nudge
    Great. So massive data leak. That is what you want, is it?

    The problem is a lot of people have spent the last 10 years putting most of their private life voluntarily online for the entire world to see, so they have an entirely different view of privacy to the rest of us. They probably wouldn't care if the government knows everything about them. But a lot of other people do still care about privacy.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    I don't agree with this. The verification function can be quite separate from a track-and-trace function, and doesn't need online access. (Also 100,000 requests per second is the entire population in 10 minutes, which doesn't seem very realistic.) I'm not saying that they *will* do this well, and temptation to centralize a database they could much more sensibly be federal will cause them trouble, but a scalable design is easy to envisage.

    (I've done consultancy on projects not dissimilar to this.)

    --AS
    The verification system will need a secure chain. The point is the peak usage will be very high as on weekends sports stadiums will be open all over the country and millions of people will go to football matches at 3pm. The Premier League alone will have around 1m spectators per weekend in a short space of time, then you've got championship and other sports as well with similar usage times. Then in the evenings clubs and bars will also have very high peak usage from 9pm to 12am.

    The database would need to be a row ordered single source of truth running on mega cluster on AWS or GCP with capacity for at least 100k simultaneous accesses. As far as databases go it's not such a big deal IMO. It's the secure chain and giving access to every Tom, Dick and Harry in the country while maintaining some kind of security over the information in it. That isn't going to be easy. For international travel it is because they can link any system to Amadeus and essential airlines can require it during the booking process.

    I think the temptation will be to go with a dual app system with a BYOD on the check side, but that would be horribly insecure.
    Like I say, I think this can be done differently. The check can be pushed to offline devices via a digital signature, unless the government is planning to record every access (I have no reason to think that they need to). All the authentication is done by the issuer of the token. Track and trace data can be stored locally and pseudonymously until and unless required by the track and trace system. Absent some clever crypto (which I cannot be bothered to think about at the moment) the pseudonymity would be imperfect, in that venues could theoretically conspire to track unnamed individuals across sites, but this is unlikely to be a major concern.

    I'm not saying they won't screw it up, not least because they are probably not consulting experts about it, but in my professional opinion it can be done relatively lightweight.

    --AS
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    Quite.

    The good news, as I said a few days ago, is it won't be built correctly in the first place because of some massive architectural flaw. So it will go back to the drawing board. And then there will be a JR. Around November they may have a MVP. By which people will laugh at a government who thought such a ridiculous waste of time was required.
    Except that EU countries are bringing them in. And international airlines are demanding them. Apart from that, they are a ridiculous waste of time and won’t happen. Ok
    Moving your goalposts again are you?

    We are not talking about your obsession for airlines and borders (anyone would think you were a travel writer), we're talking about demanding papers for domestic uses. Absolutely idiotic, a massively failure of public health policy, a civil liberties abomination and decidedly unBritish.

    The fearties can just stay in the jungle forever if they like; the rest of the county wants to crack on with normal life.
    But your obsessions collide with, well, reality. If it can be done internationally it can be done domestically. There is no technological problem. Might the government shy from the fence because of some diehard libertarians? Perhaps. But I doubt it. They will bring it in for a few months to nudge the vax-hesitant. That is the biggest win
    It's not the same thing. Your understanding of the tech that is required is basically zero so don't embarrass yourself.
    The tech can be as advanced or as primitive as the government deems necessary. Eg I have to show a bar code to get in my gym. It could literally be that simple, you get your second jab, HMG sends you a barcode or a QR code which deems you vax-safe. Yes, this is highly open to abuse or duplicity, but then, this is just a code to get into a soccer match or a festival. Who is going to game this, and manipulate it: what’s the point?

    All the government needs is 85% take up and it does the job. It is just meant to nudge society.

    Your feverish wet dreams of a surveillance society have sent you down a mental cul de sac. The government does not wish to observe our every genital twitch. It wants to assist society to reopen
    You're buying into their bullshit narrative that we need this to reopen. We don't. We need vaccines to reopen and we've got them. Everything else is a distraction. You're in favour of them because the government has scared you into thinking they're a necessity. The moment you realise they aren't you'll realise they're just an unnecessary intrusion into everyone's lives.

    For someone who has boasted about living on the edge of the law and being a rebellious cunt for years the fact that you're meekly falling into line ready comply with the lockdown and zero COVID ultras so they can gift you your life back is a bit disappointing.
    You’re either drunk or stoned. Both are admirable
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,617
    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    Quite.

    The good news, as I said a few days ago, is it won't be built correctly in the first place because of some massive architectural flaw. So it will go back to the drawing board. And then there will be a JR. Around November they may have a MVP. By which people will laugh at a government who thought such a ridiculous waste of time was required.
    Except that EU countries are bringing them in. And international airlines are demanding them. Apart from that, they are a ridiculous waste of time and won’t happen. Ok
    Moving your goalposts again are you?

    We are not talking about your obsession for airlines and borders (anyone would think you were a travel writer), we're talking about demanding papers for domestic uses. Absolutely idiotic, a massively failure of public health policy, a civil liberties abomination and decidedly unBritish.

    The fearties can just stay in the jungle forever if they like; the rest of the county wants to crack on with normal life.
    But your obsessions collide with, well, reality. If it can be done internationally it can be done domestically. There is no technological problem. Might the government shy from the fence because of some diehard libertarians? Perhaps. But I doubt it. They will bring it in for a few months to nudge the vax-hesitant. That is the biggest win
    You must have become an enfeebled degenerate to think today was freezing.

    Time to dispense with your wearied urban soul and delicate eloi physique and rediscover your Nietzschean superman by seeing some of England during this wonderful spring weather.
    Minus 2 here Tuesday
    For a couple of hours in the middle of the night maybe.

    So what ?

    Its going to be sunny and dry tomorrow and Monday while people are off work.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,586
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    Quite.

    The good news, as I said a few days ago, is it won't be built correctly in the first place because of some massive architectural flaw. So it will go back to the drawing board. And then there will be a JR. Around November they may have a MVP. By which people will laugh at a government who thought such a ridiculous waste of time was required.
    Except that EU countries are bringing them in. And international airlines are demanding them. Apart from that, they are a ridiculous waste of time and won’t happen. Ok
    Moving your goalposts again are you?

    We are not talking about your obsession for airlines and borders (anyone would think you were a travel writer), we're talking about demanding papers for domestic uses. Absolutely idiotic, a massively failure of public health policy, a civil liberties abomination and decidedly unBritish.

    The fearties can just stay in the jungle forever if they like; the rest of the county wants to crack on with normal life.
    But your obsessions collide with, well, reality. If it can be done internationally it can be done domestically. There is no technological problem. Might the government shy from the fence because of some diehard libertarians? Perhaps. But I doubt it. They will bring it in for a few months to nudge the vax-hesitant. That is the biggest win
    It's not the same thing. Your understanding of the tech that is required is basically zero so don't embarrass yourself.
    The tech can be as advanced or as primitive as the government deems necessary. Eg I have to show a bar code to get in my gym. It could literally be that simple, you get your second jab, HMG sends you a barcode or a QR code which deems you vax-safe. Yes, this is highly open to abuse or duplicity, but then, this is just a code to get into a soccer match or a festival. Who is going to game this, and manipulate it: what’s the point?

    All the government needs is 85% take up and it does the job. It is just meant to nudge society.

    Your feverish wet dreams of a surveillance society have sent you down a mental cul de sac. The government does not wish to observe our every genital twitch. It wants to assist society to reopen
    You're buying into their bullshit narrative that we need this to reopen. We don't. We need vaccines to reopen and we've got them. Everything else is a distraction. You're in favour of them because the government has scared you into thinking they're a necessity. The moment you realise they aren't you'll realise they're just an unnecessary intrusion into everyone's lives.

    For someone who has boasted about living on the edge of the law and being a rebellious cunt for years the fact that you're meekly falling into line ready comply with the lockdown and zero COVID ultras so they can gift you your life back is a bit disappointing.
    I'd rather keep things closed for a few more weeks/months if we could avoid implementing something that might one day turn into a social credit system. Wait until everyone's vaccinated.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    edited April 2021
    Leon said:



    You’re either drunk or stoned. Both are admirable

    Either way, if true, in the morning he'll be sober.

    But I'm going to predict that you'll still be cheering on the Govt giving away our freedoms unnecessarily.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    Quite.

    The good news, as I said a few days ago, is it won't be built correctly in the first place because of some massive architectural flaw. So it will go back to the drawing board. And then there will be a JR. Around November they may have a MVP. By which people will laugh at a government who thought such a ridiculous waste of time was required.
    Except that EU countries are bringing them in. And international airlines are demanding them. Apart from that, they are a ridiculous waste of time and won’t happen. Ok
    Moving your goalposts again are you?

    We are not talking about your obsession for airlines and borders (anyone would think you were a travel writer), we're talking about demanding papers for domestic uses. Absolutely idiotic, a massively failure of public health policy, a civil liberties abomination and decidedly unBritish.

    The fearties can just stay in the jungle forever if they like; the rest of the county wants to crack on with normal life.
    But your obsessions collide with, well, reality. If it can be done internationally it can be done domestically. There is no technological problem. Might the government shy from the fence because of some diehard libertarians? Perhaps. But I doubt it. They will bring it in for a few months to nudge the vax-hesitant. That is the biggest win
    You must have become an enfeebled degenerate to think today was freezing.

    Time to dispense with your wearied urban soul and delicate eloi physique and rediscover your Nietzschean superman by seeing some of England during this wonderful spring weather.
    Minus 2 here Tuesday
    For a couple of hours in the middle of the night maybe.

    So what ?

    Its going to be sunny and dry tomorrow and Monday while people are off work.
    At 10am, although that is a ‘feels like -2” apparently.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    Quite.

    The good news, as I said a few days ago, is it won't be built correctly in the first place because of some massive architectural flaw. So it will go back to the drawing board. And then there will be a JR. Around November they may have a MVP. By which people will laugh at a government who thought such a ridiculous waste of time was required.
    Except that EU countries are bringing them in. And international airlines are demanding them. Apart from that, they are a ridiculous waste of time and won’t happen. Ok
    Moving your goalposts again are you?

    We are not talking about your obsession for airlines and borders (anyone would think you were a travel writer), we're talking about demanding papers for domestic uses. Absolutely idiotic, a massively failure of public health policy, a civil liberties abomination and decidedly unBritish.

    The fearties can just stay in the jungle forever if they like; the rest of the county wants to crack on with normal life.
    But your obsessions collide with, well, reality. If it can be done internationally it can be done domestically. There is no technological problem. Might the government shy from the fence because of some diehard libertarians? Perhaps. But I doubt it. They will bring it in for a few months to nudge the vax-hesitant. That is the biggest win
    You must have become an enfeebled degenerate to think today was freezing.

    Time to dispense with your wearied urban soul and delicate eloi physique and rediscover your Nietzschean superman by seeing some of England during this wonderful spring weather.
    Minus 2 here Tuesday
    For a couple of hours in the middle of the night maybe.

    So what ?

    Its going to be sunny and dry tomorrow and Monday while people are off work.
    At 10am, although that is a ‘feels like -2” apparently.
    My phone tells me the highest temp today was 11 degrees. My phone is wrong.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    I don't agree with this. The verification function can be quite separate from a track-and-trace function, and doesn't need online access. (Also 100,000 requests per second is the entire population in 10 minutes, which doesn't seem very realistic.) I'm not saying that they *will* do this well, and temptation to centralize a database they could much more sensibly be federal will cause them trouble, but a scalable design is easy to envisage.

    (I've done consultancy on projects not dissimilar to this.)

    --AS
    The verification system will need a secure chain. The point is the peak usage will be very high as on weekends sports stadiums will be open all over the country and millions of people will go to football matches at 3pm. The Premier League alone will have around 1m spectators per weekend in a short space of time, then you've got championship and other sports as well with similar usage times. Then in the evenings clubs and bars will also have very high peak usage from 9pm to 12am.

    The database would need to be a row ordered single source of truth running on mega cluster on AWS or GCP with capacity for at least 100k simultaneous accesses. As far as databases go it's not such a big deal IMO. It's the secure chain and giving access to every Tom, Dick and Harry in the country while maintaining some kind of security over the information in it. That isn't going to be easy. For international travel it is because they can link any system to Amadeus and essential airlines can require it during the booking process.

    I think the temptation will be to go with a dual app system with a BYOD on the check side, but that would be horribly insecure.
    Like I say, I think this can be done differently. The check can be pushed to offline devices via a digital signature, unless the government is planning to record every access (I have no reason to think that they need to). All the authentication is done by the issuer of the token. Track and trace data can be stored locally and pseudonymously until and unless required by the track and trace system. Absent some clever crypto (which I cannot be bothered to think about at the moment) the pseudonymity would be imperfect, in that venues could theoretically conspire to track unnamed individuals across sites, but this is unlikely to be a major concern.

    I'm not saying they won't screw it up, not least because they are probably not consulting experts about it, but in my professional opinion it can be done relatively lightweight.

    --AS
    I think they are planning to record device level accesses so they can use the information to ping users with isolation notices that no one will pay any attention to. That's the complicating factor IMO.

    A simple checking system wouldn't be an issue and most people would just deal with it, the issue is that they're also proposing to use the checking system as a tracking system with movement data stored. There's about a million reasons why this is a terrible idea and the stuff about people scanning the vaccine status of their friends probably means they want a BYOD and publicly accessible API with minimal authentication. To my mind it's a real recipe for disaster, even if the location data is stored on a write access only database to authenticated users it's dangerously public and it's a virtual certainty that the security will fuck up and people will be able to get read access.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    edited April 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    Quite.

    The good news, as I said a few days ago, is it won't be built correctly in the first place because of some massive architectural flaw. So it will go back to the drawing board. And then there will be a JR. Around November they may have a MVP. By which people will laugh at a government who thought such a ridiculous waste of time was required.
    Except that EU countries are bringing them in. And international airlines are demanding them. Apart from that, they are a ridiculous waste of time and won’t happen. Ok
    Moving your goalposts again are you?

    We are not talking about your obsession for airlines and borders (anyone would think you were a travel writer), we're talking about demanding papers for domestic uses. Absolutely idiotic, a massively failure of public health policy, a civil liberties abomination and decidedly unBritish.

    The fearties can just stay in the jungle forever if they like; the rest of the county wants to crack on with normal life.
    But your obsessions collide with, well, reality. If it can be done internationally it can be done domestically. There is no technological problem. Might the government shy from the fence because of some diehard libertarians? Perhaps. But I doubt it. They will bring it in for a few months to nudge the vax-hesitant. That is the biggest win
    It's not the same thing. Your understanding of the tech that is required is basically zero so don't embarrass yourself.
    The tech can be as advanced or as primitive as the government deems necessary. Eg I have to show a bar code to get in my gym. It could literally be that simple, you get your second jab, HMG sends you a barcode or a QR code which deems you vax-safe. Yes, this is highly open to abuse or duplicity, but then, this is just a code to get into a soccer match or a festival. Who is going to game this, and manipulate it: what’s the point?

    All the government needs is 85% take up and it does the job. It is just meant to nudge society.

    Your feverish wet dreams of a surveillance society have sent you down a mental cul de sac. The government does not wish to observe our every genital twitch. It wants to assist society to reopen
    You're buying into their bullshit narrative that we need this to reopen. We don't. We need vaccines to reopen and we've got them. Everything else is a distraction. You're in favour of them because the government has scared you into thinking they're a necessity. The moment you realise they aren't you'll realise they're just an unnecessary intrusion into everyone's lives.

    For someone who has boasted about living on the edge of the law and being a rebellious cunt for years the fact that you're meekly falling into line ready comply with the lockdown and zero COVID ultras so they can gift you your life back is a bit disappointing.
    I'd rather keep things closed for a few more weeks/months if we could avoid implementing something that might one day turn into a social credit system. Wait until everyone's vaccinated.
    Sorry just took a time out to watch Frampton-Herring.

    "A few more months"? Are you out of your mind?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    Quite.

    The good news, as I said a few days ago, is it won't be built correctly in the first place because of some massive architectural flaw. So it will go back to the drawing board. And then there will be a JR. Around November they may have a MVP. By which people will laugh at a government who thought such a ridiculous waste of time was required.
    Except that EU countries are bringing them in. And international airlines are demanding them. Apart from that, they are a ridiculous waste of time and won’t happen. Ok
    Moving your goalposts again are you?

    We are not talking about your obsession for airlines and borders (anyone would think you were a travel writer), we're talking about demanding papers for domestic uses. Absolutely idiotic, a massively failure of public health policy, a civil liberties abomination and decidedly unBritish.

    The fearties can just stay in the jungle forever if they like; the rest of the county wants to crack on with normal life.
    But your obsessions collide with, well, reality. If it can be done internationally it can be done domestically. There is no technological problem. Might the government shy from the fence because of some diehard libertarians? Perhaps. But I doubt it. They will bring it in for a few months to nudge the vax-hesitant. That is the biggest win
    You must have become an enfeebled degenerate to think today was freezing.

    Time to dispense with your wearied urban soul and delicate eloi physique and rediscover your Nietzschean superman by seeing some of England during this wonderful spring weather.
    Minus 2 here Tuesday
    For a couple of hours in the middle of the night maybe.

    So what ?

    Its going to be sunny and dry tomorrow and Monday while people are off work.
    At 10am, although that is a ‘feels like -2” apparently.
    15 degrees and sunny tomorrow. Apparently. Tried in vain to find someone who's not already going out to lunch with friends...
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:



    You’re either drunk or stoned. Both are admirable

    Either way, if true, in the morning he'll be sober.

    But I'm going to predict that you'll still be cheering on the Govt giving away our freedoms unnecessarily.

    I predict it will be like the barcode to get in to my gym. Stored on my phone. Easily done, no real time data accessed online, but also quite easily faked. But really, where’s the motive? If you manage to fake it, this means you’ve got unvaxxed access to Aston Villa versus Bournemouth if you can afford a ticket! Well done. You’ve still got to pay

    That’s it. This will reassure nervous older folk, and younger people, who tend to be more vax hesitant, will think Oh god, why am I bothering, I’ll get the jab then

    Job done all round. No one’s liberty pillaged
  • Question, why does the device need to check in with the server every time to get the vaccination status? Can't it store it securely on device, there are already applications that do this - and Apple has things like the Secure Enclave which works with Face ID/Touch ID to secure data on device.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,617
    isam said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    Quite.

    The good news, as I said a few days ago, is it won't be built correctly in the first place because of some massive architectural flaw. So it will go back to the drawing board. And then there will be a JR. Around November they may have a MVP. By which people will laugh at a government who thought such a ridiculous waste of time was required.
    Except that EU countries are bringing them in. And international airlines are demanding them. Apart from that, they are a ridiculous waste of time and won’t happen. Ok
    Moving your goalposts again are you?

    We are not talking about your obsession for airlines and borders (anyone would think you were a travel writer), we're talking about demanding papers for domestic uses. Absolutely idiotic, a massively failure of public health policy, a civil liberties abomination and decidedly unBritish.

    The fearties can just stay in the jungle forever if they like; the rest of the county wants to crack on with normal life.
    But your obsessions collide with, well, reality. If it can be done internationally it can be done domestically. There is no technological problem. Might the government shy from the fence because of some diehard libertarians? Perhaps. But I doubt it. They will bring it in for a few months to nudge the vax-hesitant. That is the biggest win
    It's not the same thing. Your understanding of the tech that is required is basically zero so don't embarrass yourself.
    The tech can be as advanced or as primitive as the government deems necessary. Eg I have to show a bar code to get in my gym. It could literally be that simple, you get your second jab, HMG sends you a barcode or a QR code which deems you vax-safe. Yes, this is highly open to abuse or duplicity, but then, this is just a code to get into a soccer match or a festival. Who is going to game this, and manipulate it: what’s the point?

    All the government needs is 85% take up and it does the job. It is just meant to nudge society.

    Your feverish wet dreams of a surveillance society have sent you down a mental cul de sac. The government does not wish to observe our every genital twitch. It wants to assist society to reopen
    You're buying into their bullshit narrative that we need this to reopen. We don't. We need vaccines to reopen and we've got them. Everything else is a distraction. You're in favour of them because the government has scared you into thinking they're a necessity. The moment you realise they aren't you'll realise they're just an unnecessary intrusion into everyone's lives.

    For someone who has boasted about living on the edge of the law and being a rebellious cunt for years the fact that you're meekly falling into line ready comply with the lockdown and zero COVID ultras so they can gift you your life back is a bit disappointing.
    This is like watching the scene in Cool Hand Luke when he had to keep digging trenches then fill them back in again, and eventually pleads with the guards to make it stop, leading to the other prisoners, who had until then lived vicariously through his rebelliousness, to disown him
    It seems Leon is the sort of man who takes his shoes off after entering another house.

    Not an alpha member of the collective.
  • SeaShantyIrish2SeaShantyIrish2 Posts: 17,559
    Foxy said:

    Loyalists rioting now though, and attacking the police.

    What goes around comes around.
    Best (or at least least horrific) story I ever heard re: sectarian disturbance in Northern Ireland, was about a similar donnybrook about 70 years or so ago, sparked by similar sort of nonsense and personnel.

    Back then, loyalist youth were rioting versus loyalist RUC on a fine spring/summer evening in Belfast. The mob was levering up paving stones from the street, and the more ardent were rushing forward and hurling them at the Forces of Order.

    A senior RUC officer soon noticed that one of the rioters stood out, on account of his physical size AND the extreme range he was achieving chucking pavers at the coppers. Which was due both to his girth and his superior technique, which was underhanded.

    The officer gave the order - "See that big fellar - get him!" And a squad of riot cops ran out, grabbed the perp and hauled him back to police lines.

    A few days later, after the dust had settled, the officer - who was force's chief - had a quiet talk with the lad. Who in short order found himself to be a new RUC recruit AND a leading light of the RUC and NI shot put teams. The next year, he won an Olympic medal.

    When asked for comment, the old cop replied, "Thank God it was a Protestant mob!"
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,865
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    Quite.

    The good news, as I said a few days ago, is it won't be built correctly in the first place because of some massive architectural flaw. So it will go back to the drawing board. And then there will be a JR. Around November they may have a MVP. By which people will laugh at a government who thought such a ridiculous waste of time was required.
    Except that EU countries are bringing them in. And international airlines are demanding them. Apart from that, they are a ridiculous waste of time and won’t happen. Ok
    Moving your goalposts again are you?

    We are not talking about your obsession for airlines and borders (anyone would think you were a travel writer), we're talking about demanding papers for domestic uses. Absolutely idiotic, a massively failure of public health policy, a civil liberties abomination and decidedly unBritish.

    The fearties can just stay in the jungle forever if they like; the rest of the county wants to crack on with normal life.
    But your obsessions collide with, well, reality. If it can be done internationally it can be done domestically. There is no technological problem. Might the government shy from the fence because of some diehard libertarians? Perhaps. But I doubt it. They will bring it in for a few months to nudge the vax-hesitant. That is the biggest win
    It's not the same thing. Your understanding of the tech that is required is basically zero so don't embarrass yourself.
    The tech can be as advanced or as primitive as the government deems necessary. Eg I have to show a bar code to get in my gym. It could literally be that simple, you get your second jab, HMG sends you a barcode or a QR code which deems you vax-safe. Yes, this is highly open to abuse or duplicity, but then, this is just a code to get into a soccer match or a festival. Who is going to game this, and manipulate it: what’s the point?

    All the government needs is 85% take up and it does the job. It is just meant to nudge society.

    Your feverish wet dreams of a surveillance society have sent you down a mental cul de sac. The government does not wish to observe our every genital twitch. It wants to assist society to reopen
    You're buying into their bullshit narrative that we need this to reopen. We don't. We need vaccines to reopen and we've got them. Everything else is a distraction. You're in favour of them because the government has scared you into thinking they're a necessity. The moment you realise they aren't you'll realise they're just an unnecessary intrusion into everyone's lives.

    For someone who has boasted about living on the edge of the law and being a rebellious cunt for years the fact that you're meekly falling into line ready comply with the lockdown and zero COVID ultras so they can gift you your life back is a bit disappointing.
    You’re either drunk or stoned. Both are admirable
    Going down swinging I see, but no answer to the actual charge. You've lost your edge, lockdown has robbed you of what made you interesting and unique. Its turned you into a dreary man with dreary ambitions that depend on being gifted the ability to live life to its fullest by a bunch of dullard politicians who can't wait get all of this population movement data and then allow local councils to fine people for putting the wrong type of rubbish in the wrong bin based on the data they get. That's your life now mate, it's sad that lockdown has done this to you, begging the politicians for permission to live normally.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,617
    isam said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    Quite.

    The good news, as I said a few days ago, is it won't be built correctly in the first place because of some massive architectural flaw. So it will go back to the drawing board. And then there will be a JR. Around November they may have a MVP. By which people will laugh at a government who thought such a ridiculous waste of time was required.
    Except that EU countries are bringing them in. And international airlines are demanding them. Apart from that, they are a ridiculous waste of time and won’t happen. Ok
    Moving your goalposts again are you?

    We are not talking about your obsession for airlines and borders (anyone would think you were a travel writer), we're talking about demanding papers for domestic uses. Absolutely idiotic, a massively failure of public health policy, a civil liberties abomination and decidedly unBritish.

    The fearties can just stay in the jungle forever if they like; the rest of the county wants to crack on with normal life.
    But your obsessions collide with, well, reality. If it can be done internationally it can be done domestically. There is no technological problem. Might the government shy from the fence because of some diehard libertarians? Perhaps. But I doubt it. They will bring it in for a few months to nudge the vax-hesitant. That is the biggest win
    You must have become an enfeebled degenerate to think today was freezing.

    Time to dispense with your wearied urban soul and delicate eloi physique and rediscover your Nietzschean superman by seeing some of England during this wonderful spring weather.
    Minus 2 here Tuesday
    For a couple of hours in the middle of the night maybe.

    So what ?

    Its going to be sunny and dry tomorrow and Monday while people are off work.
    At 10am, although that is a ‘feels like -2” apparently.
    But still sunny and dry.

    Embrace the cold for a final brief occasion before the six months of heat.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    edited April 2021
    Leon said:

    WE NEED TO RETURN TO MILITANT CHRISTIANITY

    Selling up and giving it all to the poor?
    You can wash their feet after they've taken their shoes off too.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 32,586
    Guess what? It's another app!

    "Grandparents could use Covid passport app to screen birthday party guests "

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/03/grandparents-could-use-covid-passport-app-screen-birthday-party/
  • LeonLeon Posts: 55,429
    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    Quite.

    The good news, as I said a few days ago, is it won't be built correctly in the first place because of some massive architectural flaw. So it will go back to the drawing board. And then there will be a JR. Around November they may have a MVP. By which people will laugh at a government who thought such a ridiculous waste of time was required.
    Except that EU countries are bringing them in. And international airlines are demanding them. Apart from that, they are a ridiculous waste of time and won’t happen. Ok
    Moving your goalposts again are you?

    We are not talking about your obsession for airlines and borders (anyone would think you were a travel writer), we're talking about demanding papers for domestic uses. Absolutely idiotic, a massively failure of public health policy, a civil liberties abomination and decidedly unBritish.

    The fearties can just stay in the jungle forever if they like; the rest of the county wants to crack on with normal life.
    But your obsessions collide with, well, reality. If it can be done internationally it can be done domestically. There is no technological problem. Might the government shy from the fence because of some diehard libertarians? Perhaps. But I doubt it. They will bring it in for a few months to nudge the vax-hesitant. That is the biggest win
    It's not the same thing. Your understanding of the tech that is required is basically zero so don't embarrass yourself.
    The tech can be as advanced or as primitive as the government deems necessary. Eg I have to show a bar code to get in my gym. It could literally be that simple, you get your second jab, HMG sends you a barcode or a QR code which deems you vax-safe. Yes, this is highly open to abuse or duplicity, but then, this is just a code to get into a soccer match or a festival. Who is going to game this, and manipulate it: what’s the point?

    All the government needs is 85% take up and it does the job. It is just meant to nudge society.

    Your feverish wet dreams of a surveillance society have sent you down a mental cul de sac. The government does not wish to observe our every genital twitch. It wants to assist society to reopen
    You're buying into their bullshit narrative that we need this to reopen. We don't. We need vaccines to reopen and we've got them. Everything else is a distraction. You're in favour of them because the government has scared you into thinking they're a necessity. The moment you realise they aren't you'll realise they're just an unnecessary intrusion into everyone's lives.

    For someone who has boasted about living on the edge of the law and being a rebellious cunt for years the fact that you're meekly falling into line ready comply with the lockdown and zero COVID ultras so they can gift you your life back is a bit disappointing.
    You’re either drunk or stoned. Both are admirable
    Going down swinging I see, but no answer to the actual charge. You've lost your edge, lockdown has robbed you of what made you interesting and unique. Its turned you into a dreary man with dreary ambitions that depend on being gifted the ability to live life to its fullest by a bunch of dullard politicians who can't wait get all of this population movement data and then allow local councils to fine people for putting the wrong type of rubbish in the wrong bin based on the data they get. That's your life now mate, it's sad that lockdown has done this to you, begging the politicians for permission to live normally.
    Ok, let’s stop pretending. I love you too. I’ve just tried to deny it. But a man can only deny his true nature for so long.

    Let us away! Let us steal, hand in hand, into the starlit night
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410
    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    Quite.

    The good news, as I said a few days ago, is it won't be built correctly in the first place because of some massive architectural flaw. So it will go back to the drawing board. And then there will be a JR. Around November they may have a MVP. By which people will laugh at a government who thought such a ridiculous waste of time was required.
    Except that EU countries are bringing them in. And international airlines are demanding them. Apart from that, they are a ridiculous waste of time and won’t happen. Ok
    Moving your goalposts again are you?

    We are not talking about your obsession for airlines and borders (anyone would think you were a travel writer), we're talking about demanding papers for domestic uses. Absolutely idiotic, a massively failure of public health policy, a civil liberties abomination and decidedly unBritish.

    The fearties can just stay in the jungle forever if they like; the rest of the county wants to crack on with normal life.
    But your obsessions collide with, well, reality. If it can be done internationally it can be done domestically. There is no technological problem. Might the government shy from the fence because of some diehard libertarians? Perhaps. But I doubt it. They will bring it in for a few months to nudge the vax-hesitant. That is the biggest win
    You must have become an enfeebled degenerate to think today was freezing.

    Time to dispense with your wearied urban soul and delicate eloi physique and rediscover your Nietzschean superman by seeing some of England during this wonderful spring weather.
    Minus 2 here Tuesday
    For a couple of hours in the middle of the night maybe.

    So what ?

    Its going to be sunny and dry tomorrow and Monday while people are off work.
    At 10am, although that is a ‘feels like -2” apparently.
    15 degrees and sunny tomorrow. Apparently. Tried in vain to find someone who's not already going out to lunch with friends...
    I'm not.
    Though in my defence partner and kids are off to the in laws.
    I'm gonna spend a few hours alone in my house for the first time in 2 348 713 days.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    This remainer says he loves the UK

    https://twitter.com/BrexitBuster/status/1378348217201479684

    Not so sure about that mate

    Another remainer

    https://twitter.com/tonyrawdin9/status/1378434509037842437/photo/1

    He might want to think about that and Brexit for a second - oh wait the EU seem hell bent on not treating us as friends and allies
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    I don't agree with this. The verification function can be quite separate from a track-and-trace function, and doesn't need online access. (Also 100,000 requests per second is the entire population in 10 minutes, which doesn't seem very realistic.) I'm not saying that they *will* do this well, and temptation to centralize a database they could much more sensibly be federal will cause them trouble, but a scalable design is easy to envisage.

    (I've done consultancy on projects not dissimilar to this.)

    --AS
    The verification system will need a secure chain. The point is the peak usage will be very high as on weekends sports stadiums will be open all over the country and millions of people will go to football matches at 3pm. The Premier League alone will have around 1m spectators per weekend in a short space of time, then you've got championship and other sports as well with similar usage times. Then in the evenings clubs and bars will also have very high peak usage from 9pm to 12am.

    The database would need to be a row ordered single source of truth running on mega cluster on AWS or GCP with capacity for at least 100k simultaneous accesses. As far as databases go it's not such a big deal IMO. It's the secure chain and giving access to every Tom, Dick and Harry in the country while maintaining some kind of security over the information in it. That isn't going to be easy. For international travel it is because they can link any system to Amadeus and essential airlines can require it during the booking process.

    I think the temptation will be to go with a dual app system with a BYOD on the check side, but that would be horribly insecure.
    Like I say, I think this can be done differently. The check can be pushed to offline devices via a digital signature, unless the government is planning to record every access (I have no reason to think that they need to). All the authentication is done by the issuer of the token. Track and trace data can be stored locally and pseudonymously until and unless required by the track and trace system. Absent some clever crypto (which I cannot be bothered to think about at the moment) the pseudonymity would be imperfect, in that venues could theoretically conspire to track unnamed individuals across sites, but this is unlikely to be a major concern.

    I'm not saying they won't screw it up, not least because they are probably not consulting experts about it, but in my professional opinion it can be done relatively lightweight.

    --AS
    I think they are planning to record device level accesses so they can use the information to ping users with isolation notices that no one will pay any attention to. That's the complicating factor IMO.

    A simple checking system wouldn't be an issue and most people would just deal with it, the issue is that they're also proposing to use the checking system as a tracking system with movement data stored. There's about a million reasons why this is a terrible idea and the stuff about people scanning the vaccine status of their friends probably means they want a BYOD and publicly accessible API with minimal authentication. To my mind it's a real recipe for disaster, even if the location data is stored on a write access only database to authenticated users it's dangerously public and it's a virtual certainty that the security will fuck up and people will be able to get read access.
    Hmm, that does sound complex. I hadn't heard that they were planning to let people check their friends' status.

    Clearly there has been some briefing and counter-briefing in the media, so I'm reserving judgement until they actually publish proposals. It doesn't make a lot of sense to me to do automatic isolation notices for the use-cases that they have been most recently leaking (stadiums, concerts, broadly large scale venues).

    If only they took expert advice (as opposed to management consultant advice) this could have been cleared up much earlier in the process. The way the leaks have been veering all over the place suggests that either there is a lot of infighting, or that they are still trying to work out what they are trying to achieve. Which doesn't usually end well. I guess we'll find out in due course.

    --AS
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    dixiedean said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    Quite.

    The good news, as I said a few days ago, is it won't be built correctly in the first place because of some massive architectural flaw. So it will go back to the drawing board. And then there will be a JR. Around November they may have a MVP. By which people will laugh at a government who thought such a ridiculous waste of time was required.
    Except that EU countries are bringing them in. And international airlines are demanding them. Apart from that, they are a ridiculous waste of time and won’t happen. Ok
    Moving your goalposts again are you?

    We are not talking about your obsession for airlines and borders (anyone would think you were a travel writer), we're talking about demanding papers for domestic uses. Absolutely idiotic, a massively failure of public health policy, a civil liberties abomination and decidedly unBritish.

    The fearties can just stay in the jungle forever if they like; the rest of the county wants to crack on with normal life.
    But your obsessions collide with, well, reality. If it can be done internationally it can be done domestically. There is no technological problem. Might the government shy from the fence because of some diehard libertarians? Perhaps. But I doubt it. They will bring it in for a few months to nudge the vax-hesitant. That is the biggest win
    You must have become an enfeebled degenerate to think today was freezing.

    Time to dispense with your wearied urban soul and delicate eloi physique and rediscover your Nietzschean superman by seeing some of England during this wonderful spring weather.
    Minus 2 here Tuesday
    For a couple of hours in the middle of the night maybe.

    So what ?

    Its going to be sunny and dry tomorrow and Monday while people are off work.
    At 10am, although that is a ‘feels like -2” apparently.
    15 degrees and sunny tomorrow. Apparently. Tried in vain to find someone who's not already going out to lunch with friends...
    I'm not.
    Though in my defence partner and kids are off to the in laws.
    I'm gonna spend a few hours alone in my house for the first time in 2 348 713 days.
    Sounds like bliss tbh :smiley:
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,992
    dixiedean said:

    TOPPING said:

    isam said:

    isam said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    Leon said:

    Mortimer said:

    MaxPB said:

    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    What's the point then. Unless they're seriously saying that the night economy will need to stay closed until then?!
    Not read the small print beyond the headline, but surely 21 June is "months" away?

    If any of these venues are closed after 21 June that is a massive failure as far as I'm concerned.
    Bear in mind the app, that will no doubt come with a multi billion pound price tag, isn't expected until the Autumn. Bear in mind, also, that government technology projects rarely deliver on time.

    So, are we planning on reopening venues without Vaxports, and then requiring them in 2022? Or are we planning to not reopen the venues, even though much of the population will be fully vaccinated, and CV19 incidence is going to be very low?
    Utter madness.

    This app will be at best laughed at, at worst an albatross around the neck of this Govt.
    Is it Boris' method of revenge on Gove? That is honestly the only reason I can see for getting him to do this job....
    Erm, we already have an NHS app, and an NHS Covid app. Displaying a vaccination status is not a hard thing to achieve. This isn’t complex like the contact detection.
    It's a hugely complicated thing to do as it needs a secure chain scanning system operated by third parties almost like the actual passports system in airports but open to people who sell you popcorn in cinemas, not people who have had years of training for it. In addition it needs real time database response for a huge number of simultaneous checks per second in peak usage scenarios. Making 100,000 requests to a database per second without having the likes of Cloudflare involved due to the sensitive nature of the data in question.

    The app that is needed is nothing like what has been built. It needs a whole new data infrastructure that is essentially bomb proof or it will result in crowd crushes at football stadiums.
    Quite.

    The good news, as I said a few days ago, is it won't be built correctly in the first place because of some massive architectural flaw. So it will go back to the drawing board. And then there will be a JR. Around November they may have a MVP. By which people will laugh at a government who thought such a ridiculous waste of time was required.
    Except that EU countries are bringing them in. And international airlines are demanding them. Apart from that, they are a ridiculous waste of time and won’t happen. Ok
    Moving your goalposts again are you?

    We are not talking about your obsession for airlines and borders (anyone would think you were a travel writer), we're talking about demanding papers for domestic uses. Absolutely idiotic, a massively failure of public health policy, a civil liberties abomination and decidedly unBritish.

    The fearties can just stay in the jungle forever if they like; the rest of the county wants to crack on with normal life.
    But your obsessions collide with, well, reality. If it can be done internationally it can be done domestically. There is no technological problem. Might the government shy from the fence because of some diehard libertarians? Perhaps. But I doubt it. They will bring it in for a few months to nudge the vax-hesitant. That is the biggest win
    You must have become an enfeebled degenerate to think today was freezing.

    Time to dispense with your wearied urban soul and delicate eloi physique and rediscover your Nietzschean superman by seeing some of England during this wonderful spring weather.
    Minus 2 here Tuesday
    For a couple of hours in the middle of the night maybe.

    So what ?

    Its going to be sunny and dry tomorrow and Monday while people are off work.
    At 10am, although that is a ‘feels like -2” apparently.
    15 degrees and sunny tomorrow. Apparently. Tried in vain to find someone who's not already going out to lunch with friends...
    I'm not.
    Though in my defence partner and kids are off to the in laws.
    I'm gonna spend a few hours alone in my house for the first time in 2 348 713 days.
    Binge watch/play something? Over the past year I had dinner three times with friends. Three times. Amazing to think about it like that.
  • Support for independence when undecideds are excluded is 51 per cent, with 49 per cent opposed, and more than half (54 per cent) want another referendum within the next five years.
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