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What YouGov was reporting a year ago today – politicalbetting.com
What YouGov was reporting a year ago today – politicalbetting.com
Thanks to John Rentoul for Tweeting the above poll data from April 3rd 2020. As can be seen the immediate polling reaction to the start of lockdown was to get behind the government and the Prime Minister.
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Improved yes but some distance from Office
May's elections are vital for Starmer
There's currently 3,600 people in hospital which means only 16 people on average per NHS trust and only 42 people on average per NHS foundation trust. That's pretty empty already.
In 2019 people were saying Labour was done and should split. On that metric the Labour rebound to lead in the polls (albeit fallen back a way now) and to be remotely competitive is nothing short of extraordinary and Starmer should take comfort in that.
The next year is going to be what is crucial for him, now he has to put some flesh on the bones, set out a few policies and ideas and see the public response. He can also hope for some kind of Lib Dem revival, possibly a pipe dream but who knows.
See the horrible example of Derek Draper.
EDIT: that 140,000 figure is just England, so the actual % will be lower.
What are the performance targets for Labour in Scotland this spring?
1. Prevent an SNP majority.
2. Prevent a Nationalist majority.
3. Come second.
4. Win at least one constituency from the SNP.
5. Win the Airdrie and Shotts by-election.
6. Form a minority government.
How far down the list of implausibility do they need to be to convince English voters they won't be beholden to the SNP at Westminster?
Much further then they are likely to reach I would guess.
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-danish-vaccine-passport-app-will-cause-domino-effect-across-europe-12264256
Unfortunately for those on here who are irritated or outraged, public sentiment for something like this is, and will continue to be, strong. The Government and their scientists have done an excellent job of scaring everyone witless, as has the pandemic itself, and there's no strong desire among the British public to gamble with one's life.
while (true) {
console.write("Keir Starmer is crap");
}
from case data
from hospitalisation data
Let's be fair - last April there was the same rallying round and support given to the Government here as there was in many other countries. Incumbent Governments, in many countries, regardless of political composition, all got a boost which some kept and others have lost.
Bulgaria votes tomorrow as we know - Albania votes on April 25th. As we know, Albania is governed by the Socialists who won 48% of the vote and 74 out of 140 seats in the 2017 elections. The opposition Democratic Party won 29% of the vote and 43 seats. The Socialist Integration Party got 14% of the vote and 19 seats.
The latest poll has the Socialists on 49% and the Democratic Party on 40% with Socialist Integration on 6% so you'd think the Socialists will maintain or slightly increase their majority but with the Democratic Party picking up perhaps 15 seats from Integration to be around 60 seats.
Elsewhere, a slightly mischievous poll from INSA in Germany which puts the Greens on top - not quite, all INSA has done is split the CDU and CSU votes so the Greens have 21%, CDU 19%, SPD 18%, AfD 11%, FDP 10.5%, Linke 8% and CSU 7%.
Is anyone suggesting the "Union" is about to split? It would be a huge event in German politics were that to happen.
Two other German polls (YouGov and Infratest) had very similar numbers - Union 27%, Greens 21-22%, SPD 16-17%.
Are we going to have a panic about these?
CFR seems to be heading down again - maybe. Very noisy data....
2. Jeremy Corbyn was a relative novelty in 2017. More folk had made up their minds about him by 2019
3. Get Brexit Done (which itself catalysed the breakdown in the cultural relationship between Labour and one wing of its support base, which had been underway for many years beforehand)
Anyway, Labour only did relatively well in 2017, when compared with what came before and especially since. And even then, they still finished well behind on seats, and they were still left sat on the Opposition benches. Worse, it is quite possible that the 36% they're now averaging in the polls (basically, the supporters that stuck with them in 2019, plus returning hardcore Remainers who lent their votes to the Lib Dems) constitutes their new ceiling of support. But time will tell.
Even the 35 to 44 age group are only 35% strongly in favour.....now I wonder which spends more and more frequently in hospitality the under 45s or the over
We used to have isolation hospitals for things like TB, didn't we?
In politics someone has to do well enough to lead a government even if they are all terrible. 2017 was the nadir of such moments.
There's a lot of hard work for Labour to do just to lay the groundwork for looking like a credible government-in-waiting.
2. Hopeless. There will not be a Unionist majority
3. Possible, but the battle between SCON and SLAB for second place does not, in and of itself, mean anything. If SLAB can't get anywhere close to the SNP then it's just the electoral equivalent of two bald men arguing over the proverbial comb
4. Possible, I suppose. I don't know enough to answer this question, the SNP seems very secure in its constituencies but there are plenty for Labour to choose from
5. Highly unlikely
6. LOL!
No voter in England who doesn't trust Labour not to throw their money at Scotland is going to have their mind changed by anything short of the implosion of the SNP and the return of the Scottish Labour bloc at Westminster, which certainly won't be happening at the next GE and might never happen at all. Scotland is a millstone around Starmer's neck.
The permanent ICU staff are shattered physically and mentally, so are on recovery leave so they still have a lot of our staff. It will be a week or two before we can scale up elective outpatients and surgical work, but even then only partially as we need social distancing still.
Sir Keir may be a decent bloke, I am sure he means well, but that doesn't stop me noticing that his ratings are crap, and that Leaders of the Opposition with such ratings, whose party trails in the polls, when up against a PM that the public find more charismatic, don't really get the top job. I am banging on about it because no one else seems to want to admit it. This place is called politcal betting after all, and I am someone who bets a lot, and likes politics, I assumed others might too
Martin Kettle - Guardian
That's certainly true for all of us about the result of a 2024 general election.
while (true) {
console.write("crap");
}
You'd never make it as a computer programmer. All that would print is the string "crap". Surely you meant to use crap the variable?
That, in turn, is part of the broader media contribution to the election result. It was presented as and assumed to be a one-horse race, so most of the attention was devoted to picking apart Theresa May's flawed manifesto. Very little scrutiny was afforded to Labour's plans.
“Better than Corbyn” is not an epitaph any LotO should be content with
Therefore it is massively in Boris and Tory interest to engineer an election as soon as this parliament has run long enough that it is plausible to get away with it. Which is sometime in 2022 or 2023.
It is a tribute to May's special incompetence that she failed to win a Boris type majority.
"Under New Management" was the line, I think
If that was true, he wasn't that invisible really - more likely I would say that the more people see of him, the less impressed they are. The Dont Knows are far fewer than they were a year ago, and they have turned into negative views of him
Plus memories of 2017 are still fresh.
https://twitter.com/MilesMJohnson/status/1378285429141729281
Should we be on the Conservatives at Evens to win Hartlepool because Starmer's ratings are so bad?
I've had a look at the Betfair market - £14 to back the Conservatives to win most seats at 1.58 or £24 on Labour at 2.58. Not exactly frantic - what would you suggest? Based on how bad Starmer's ratings are and the electoral mountain so often pointed out by OGH and others, I assume you'll be on at 1.58 - looks a good bet if you don't mind the cash sitting there for three years and, to be fair, it's still miles better than any savings account.
Indeed, as has been pointed out on this site on numerous past occasions, some democracies have been under single party rule more-or-less continuously for periods of decades at a time. Exhibit A: Japan. It's not inconceivable that England may be entering a period of one-and-a-half party politics, in which the second party is simultaneously too weak to win and too strong to be displaced by anything better. We just don't know.
Cheers.
It’s the long hours + no breaks + stress + no prospects of improvement that breaks people
I find this kind of comment boring, the BBC believes in Britain, Channel 4 believes in Britain, the Sun believes in Britain, the Telegraph believes in Britain. They just don't all believe that means the same thing
For a party that regards itself as a moral crusade and always on the side of righteousness, that's going to be very difficult indeed to overcome. You can't imagine Labour's members being willing to listen to an equivalent of Theresa May's infamous 2002 conference speech. Being perfect themselves, if the voters criticise them then it must be the voters that are at fault. False consciousness and all that.
If it did happen it would be strange. Firstly it would take so long to know - 18 years of Tory rule is clearly not long enough - and secondly the iron electoral law ruling against third parties since the 1920s means that it would take a meteorite of an explosion to shift the system along.