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After the longest wait for a by-election since GE1945 it looks like there’ll be two on the same say
After the longest wait for a by-election since GE1945 it looks like there’ll be two on the same say – politicalbetting.com
The Wikipedia panel above shows the outcome of the general election in the Scottish constituency of Airdrie and Shottswhere where there will be a Westminster by-election in the first week of May. It looks as though the LAB defence of Hartlepool will take place on the same day.
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Congratulations to Wales.
https://order-order.com/2021/03/26/blackfords-spectacular-by-election-own-goal/
Much deserved
Yikes
One in 25 people hospitalised with Covid-19 since December have had at least one dose of vaccine, with the majority infected shortly before or soon after vaccination – before immunity would have had time to develop
Why do I think that is the trap? Because the whole point seems to be that by moaning about the Conservatives doing it it reinforces the undercurrent that only Tories are patriotic or wave the flag, which you are right that is absurd, rather than challenges that undercurrent as you want. Why help the Tories by pretending that them waving the flag a bunch is insidious, rather than 'challenging' it by not getting worked up, and being patriotic in our own way, if we want, and not react as though the Tories waving flags about is something sinister?
Sure, the objection, the challenge, is the Tories are implying they are the only patriotic ones, but I feel like that is lost on a lot of people, who just go 'People are objecting to Tories waving the flag? I'm not a Tory, but what's the problem with that?' and then people have to explain that is not what they are doing, oh but ignore those extremists who are doing precisely that, and so on.
It costs the Tories nothing to do it, and won't always work, but some opposition people make it work. I don't think Keir will run into a problem, and not because he has put a flag up occasionally, but because people won't buy it, like they didn't buy it when Goldsmith tried to smear Khan 5 years ago.
That thing they jabbed in your arm, it ain't doing anything for you for at least 3 weeks.
USA buy-elections a function of who spews most dollars to attain political dominance.
Many countries bye-elections are where a dictator or military junta selflessly take it upon themselves to govern the grateful populace permanently. Robert Mugabe and Xi jinping are examples
UK by-elections are the odd we we appoint our rulers using a system of FPTP by election
Hope that clears it up for you.
We don't know how long immunity from the second dose of either Pfizer or Aztrazeneca will last. We know there are high levels of immunity 12 weeks after the first dose and within 7 days of the second dose they go higher still but for how long are or can such high levels be maintained?
The first person in the UK was vaccinated on December 8th and we know only a small percentage have received both vaccinations but is the planned date of September for booster vaccinations based on anything other than guesswork immunity will fade after 6 months or is there some science behind it?
Presumably, no one really knows when vaccinated people lose their immunity - hopefully they won't completely and hopefully we'll be spared any new surprise variants. The other expectation I have is or are better vaccines with more efficient and quicker immune responses which also last longer so we can move to an annual vaccination - possibly, in time, combined with the normal influenza vaccination to create one vaccination especially for older and more vulnerable people.
Khan will get attention as it is London, even though it is an obvious win.
Wales won't get massive attention unless the Tories really do run Labour close, or even come top.
Locals will depend on overall number of losses/gains, but unless it's a clear calamity for someone will be easy for the other side to distract.
Some other mayoralties will get some local notice, but most won't care.
Scotland will get a lot of attention come what May, as either the SNP get their majority, Indy supporters get their majority, which are both big news for what they will then claim a mandate for, or Unionists somehow graba majority, which would be big news indeed.
So yes, the by-elections will probably be a bit overshadowed, but a Tory win in Hartlepool on an otherwise mixed night would be a useful counter example, and Labour not breaking through by holding Hartlepool will get more attention than such a hold usually would, as it would be used to say Keir's tactics are working.
https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1375562851985858560?s=19
Perhaps Kentish Covid has now made its introductions
https://twitter.com/avivi/status/1375575135932006403?s=21
https://twitter.com/dgbassani/status/1375571027380596736?s=21
Bear in mind, that there won't be a step function, and that if immunity fades, it will be gradual.
https://twitter.com/nytpolitics/status/1375576808033300488
This town - https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Büsingen_am_Hochrhein - is German, and is surrounded on all sides by Switzerland.
They voted to combine with Switzerland, and the Swiss turned them down.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-56507988
Severity is highly correlated with the level of viral shedding.
More seriously people have talked for years about more emphasis on sport in schools and the like, so either we've not done it, or it hasn't worked, and either way, why not?
https://www.cnn.com/videos/tv/2021/03/26/lead-matt-rivers-dnt-live-jake-tapper.cnn
Burying corpses at night
There were discussions about Dominion status but apparently neither the British nor the Maltese liked that solution so Dom Mintoff suggested the solution whereby Malta would become part of the UK with 3 seats in Parliament. Basically they would have had the same status as Northern Ireland. This was approved by 77% of the electorate but on a 59% turnout. But the British decided that Malta would be too expensive - they needed an immediate £5 million bail out - and so decided not to proceed with the plans. This was in part driven by the different outlook of the UK and its decline as a naval power which made Malta less important. Instead Malta became independent in 1964.
I still marvel at the fact that the British chose to reject the referendum result which inevitably was seen by many in Malta as a snub. Not least because the British Government had been joint conveners of the referendum.
Fascinating things, and do rather make a mockery of when people rather simplistic suggest X should be part of Y because it is on the same island/penninsula, as though borders have to make sense.
https://twitter.com/poder360/status/1375427313064632328?s=21
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/India–Bangladesh_enclaves
I remember in school learning how to bake Cornish pasties —- but not how to properly chop vegetables, why a sofrito is used in almost every recipe, and the best ways to treat carrot.
That was 30 years ago, in another country, but doubt its any better now (and is probably worse).
70 years later he is still collecting a modest naval pension.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/mar/03/welcome-to-the-land-that-no-country-wants-bir-tawil
THE SEYCHELLES
One of the most beautiful island chains on earth
This is the one I was thinking of - the world's only third order enclave, a piece of India within a piece of Bangladesh within a piece of India within Bangladesh.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dahala_Khagrabari
https://www.dw.com/en/belgium-and-netherlands-swap-land-in-the-new-year/a-41988494
Around four years ago, things came to a head after a couple walking on one of the peninsulas stumbled across a headless body.
They informed the Dutch authorities, but police in the Netherlands were unable to investigate as the body was found on Belgian territory.
On the other side, Belgian authorities had a difficult time getting to the crime scene. Belgian police are not allowed to cross into the Netherlands without receiving special permission, so they had to travel by boat.
Well, that's the next The Bridge style drama sorted.
Dahagram - similar name! - is now the only remaining (Bangladeshi) enclave.
I can only double-face palm so many times.
But yes they did a much better job of hanging on to nice bits of the world, which is galling when we conquered so much more. On the other they can’t get over the fact everywhere speaks English, so history has a way of evening out...
Also suspect fact that Maltese are "Levintine" and NOT Anglo-Saxon (or Celt) MIGHT have had something to do with it. Despite their more-than-loyal record during WW2.
Does anyone here actually knows what the real deal was?
Addendum - Just saw the comment by RT downthred.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Liberland
Basically territory claimed by neither Croatia or Serbia. Due to the Danube having shifted course.
It’s not as beautiful as the Seychelles but the seas are magnificent and the food is some of the best in the world
Sigh
Media reports tonight that also work on combined flu / covid jab coming.
And of course work on huge home built production capacity coming online in next few months
Has he been to America? They do quite ‘heavy policing’, it often involves shooting people dead
‘It’s a tight race in Gozo, malta’
‘Labour doing well here in grand cayman island’
‘Reporting now from the famous beach of la digue, in the Seychelles, where the lib dems are putting up a stiff fight’
‘Breaking news from South Georgia: a lost deposit for the guano party, which is in coalition with UKIP’
It was a very hostile atmosphere, with brooding stares at us. Eventually one of our fellow passengers spoke to us. We apologised for not understanding him as we spoke little French. Instantly the atmosphere changed. Once the passengers realised we were not French, it was fine, and we were plied with fruit and cane sprit. They waved us off happily at the airport
The airport was closed and no buses back, but that is another story!
I wonder what would happen in this country if heaven forbid, Boris, Whitty et al. had to come out and say that the first gen vaccines were ineffective against the Mumbai variant and the lockdown had to continue indefinitely. The country would crack. I wonder what, if anything, the government could do in that scenario.
The English speaking Caribbean generally lives up to its stereotype: relaxed, hedonistic, super friendly. Have another banana. Lots of smiles. Many islands have drug or crime issues but they are universal. The smiles are sincere
Far fewer smiles on French islands. Surly resentment is the tone.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_European_Parliament_election_in_Gibraltar
New Caledonia is rather a special case, with a reasonable sized white town and a melanesian hinterland. Each is effectively self governing now, which has reduced friction.
https://vassallohistory.wordpress.com/parliament/referenda/
If you scroll down they have the original proposal.
We could even put in a late bid for PNG, Tuvalu, the Solomons
The Corona virus that is causing Covid is essentially a virus that is stable in the bat population, bats have adapts and developed the required proteins to be almost immune and the virus mutates very very slowly in bats as it has been in that species for an incredibly long time.
The virus has jumped to humans and is now going through rapid mutations to adapt to be best suited in humans, evolution through natural selection and all that.
At some point the virus will find a mutation that best suits it's new human hosts, until that time mutations will continue at pace and possibly become more rapid until the virus adapts to it's new host an settles down.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Committee_of_the_Regions
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/03/26/exclusive-over-70s-get-booster-covid-vaccines-september/
I'm all for an uplifting ending. I wish some of today's academic tomes could take a more furiously optimistic approach.
Anyway, the point of all this is that up until 1855 at least, Danish history appeared to consist of expending vast amounts of time and resources over several generations trying to integrate Schleswig-Holstein into the Danish state, only to lose it again almost immediately, over and over again.
Lots of social problems, but also a land of enormous potential.
A good partner and project for post brexit Britain.
It was expected, when they went Indy, they would become a republic. They didn’t. They prefer the crown and links to Britain. Let us make them the fifth constituent nation in the UK