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After the damaging spat with Salmond can Sturgeon lead the SNP to a Holyrood majority on May 4th? –

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited March 11 in General
imageAfter the damaging spat with Salmond can Sturgeon lead the SNP to a Holyrood majority on May 4th? – politicalbetting.com

We are now just eight weeks away from the May 4th when there’ll be the biggest group of elections taking place in the UK outside a general election. For as well as those contests that were scheduled to take place this year there are all those which had to be postponed last year because of the pandemic.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 17,384
    edited March 11
    First like NOM.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,758
    Yes. Though I'm surprised at the BigG poll. I'd assume in general it's a proxy for indy support, but even without the yes drop itd be lower than I'd have thought. More thinking about 2022 or actually turning against idea?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 7,277
    edited March 11
    4th like the J&J vaccine.
    MattW said:

    WHY DO YOU KEEP RETWEETING THIS CLOWN?
    Because he is the epitome of Europhile stupidity.
    I think the claim that J&J were supposed to be ready to deliver as soon as approval by the EHA came through may well be a lie - just as was done with AZ.

    If I recall, the delivery schedule that UVDL was flourishing back in mid-Feb identified the expected date as Q2.
    Here you go. Senior EU source saying that if all goes well J&J doses *may* be available in *April*, and Stella Kyriakides saying that she cannot commit.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccine-eu-johnson-idUSKBN29I1EM

    Obligation to start immediately my arse.

    They need to acquaint themselves with the content of their contracts, and then work constructively within that.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,306
    No, Mike - May 4th is Star Wars Day.

    May 6th is when the Sith hits the fan...
  • Three local by-elections in Scotland this week.

    https://www.britainelects.com/2021/03/11/previewing-the-scottish-council-by-elections-of-11th-march/

    Aird and Loch Ness, Leaderdale and Melrose & Livingston South.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 1,796
    Cases up. but c. 1400 are unconfirmed LFD

    England hospital beds now below 7k from a peak of 34k, and dropping by c.500 on week days
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 6,648
    If that poll is correct then it thankfully doesn't bode well for the Scottish Nasty Party. We can but hope!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,542
    Almost 2k LFT positives in today's figures. Not surprised that PHE have made the data public becuase those tests are, IMO, worthless. The false positive/negative rate on them is far too high to be counted the same as a PCR positive.

    This is exactly what I feared would happen, we get a whole bunch of pointless tests pushing up the perceived infection rate. Soon we'll get the usual suspects like that idiot zero COVID Scottish woman talking about how risky the current timetable is etc...

    We really shouldn't have bothered with this strategy and just done it without the tests and had weekly PCR testing for teachers as a reduction in transmission vector.
  • Labour will make something of a comeback in Scotland, I think.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 48,044
    edited March 11
    Case decline slowing ("Back to School"?), deaths plumetting, positivity rate still ±0.5% - so still under control



  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 1,832
    maaarsh said:

    Cases up. but c. 1400 are unconfirmed LFD

    England hospital beds now below 7k from a peak of 34k, and dropping by c.500 on week days

    Time to hold our nerve re cases. Its the hospitals and deaths that should determine the unlocking.
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 1,796
    MaxPB said:

    Almost 2k LFT positives in today's figures. Not surprised that PHE have made the data public becuase those tests are, IMO, worthless. The false positive/negative rate on them is far too high to be counted the same as a PCR positive.

    This is exactly what I feared would happen, we get a whole bunch of pointless tests pushing up the perceived infection rate. Soon we'll get the usual suspects like that idiot zero COVID Scottish woman talking about how risky the current timetable is etc...

    We really shouldn't have bothered with this strategy and just done it without the tests and had weekly PCR testing for teachers as a reduction in transmission vector.

    Bingo. Based on current prevalance rate, even with the updated lower false positive estimate, would still expect c.75% of them to be false..

    Just glad they have split the figures out as it could have easily been kept under wraps given how keen they are to promote the narrative that R is about to go back over 1.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 11,569
    If the SNP win a majority, but the polls look like a No, what will Sturgeon do?
    What will the PM do?
    We could be in the ludicrous situation of Westminster urging Indyref2 and the SNP trying to delay it.
    Nowt surprises me much these days.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 5,677

    Case decline slowing ("Back to School"?), deaths plumetting, positivity rate still ±0.5% - so still under control



    Very encouraging figures today.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 11,117
    A group of SNP-Independence voters concerned they might lose, I suspect.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,542

    maaarsh said:

    Cases up. but c. 1400 are unconfirmed LFD

    England hospital beds now below 7k from a peak of 34k, and dropping by c.500 on week days

    Time to hold our nerve re cases. Its the hospitals and deaths that should determine the unlocking.
    Yes, a bunch of under 16s testing positive really isn't a big deal but now I fear the zero COVID chumps will have their day in the sun based on completely worthless tests.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 28,426
    NB logarithmic scale, so this is very encouraging indeed:

    https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1370044730193633280
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 65,452
    maaarsh said:

    MaxPB said:

    Almost 2k LFT positives in today's figures. Not surprised that PHE have made the data public becuase those tests are, IMO, worthless. The false positive/negative rate on them is far too high to be counted the same as a PCR positive.

    This is exactly what I feared would happen, we get a whole bunch of pointless tests pushing up the perceived infection rate. Soon we'll get the usual suspects like that idiot zero COVID Scottish woman talking about how risky the current timetable is etc...

    We really shouldn't have bothered with this strategy and just done it without the tests and had weekly PCR testing for teachers as a reduction in transmission vector.

    Bingo. Based on current prevalance rate, even with the updated lower false positive estimate, would still expect c.75% of them to be false..

    Just glad they have split the figures out as it could have easily been kept under wraps given how keen they are to promote the narrative that R is about to go back over 1.
    We don't know the false positive % amongst LFDs and it's not trivial to work out given PCRs can also give false negative. Simply publishing the confirmed and uncofirmed LFD numbers is the best approach for now. Schools will remain the last unvaxxed bastion for the virus - but given that kids don't tend to suffer too much with it and the importance of education that's a tradeoff the Gov't is willing to make, hopefully paediatric trials mean kids to be vaxxed too at some point.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,542

    Labour will make something of a comeback in Scotland, I think.

    I actually think so too, the new leader and that MSP questioning Sturgeon in the inquiry are both significant improvements on the previous team in Scotland. I think the Tories will hold on as well because Murray seems to be up to the job, the level of vitriol from the Nats on here against both unionists leaders (Lab/Tory) shows they now fear the result in May where they didn't under the previous leaders of both Scottish parties.

    It's all slipping away from the SNP and as that happens the bitterness levels will only increase from them and their supporters.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 4,735

    maaarsh said:

    Cases up. but c. 1400 are unconfirmed LFD

    England hospital beds now below 7k from a peak of 34k, and dropping by c.500 on week days

    Time to hold our nerve re cases. Its the hospitals and deaths that should determine the unlocking.
    Your nervousness about the goalposts being shifted again is palpable.

  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,811
    I'd expect that the SNP will do well in the upcoming election. Someone posted a poll (on the previous thread?) saying that only 1 in 8 SNP voters reckon Ms Sturgeon was lying in her evidence. So whatever relevance/influence Mr Salmond had among them seems to have faded and I'd expect the spat will act as a powerful GOTV factor.

    Good afternoon, everybody.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 48,044
    edited March 11
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 20,726
    kle4 said:

    Yes. Though I'm surprised at the BigG poll. I'd assume in general it's a proxy for indy support, but even without the yes drop itd be lower than I'd have thought. More thinking about 2022 or actually turning against idea?

    I imagine there are a fair number of Sindy supporters who nevertheless feel that this year - with the pandemic and all - would not be ideal for a Referendum.
  • AlistairMAlistairM Posts: 232

    Case decline slowing ("Back to School"?), deaths plumetting, positivity rate still ±0.5% - so still under control



    I'd fully expected cases to go about a couple of K this week due to all the extra testing. The fact that it took until Wednesday for the number to be above the previous week (and by less than 200) I think is very good news. I believe that this week will be a bit like what turned out to be the "snow week" and then the downward trend in cases should resume.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 1,377
    MaxPB said:

    maaarsh said:

    Cases up. but c. 1400 are unconfirmed LFD

    England hospital beds now below 7k from a peak of 34k, and dropping by c.500 on week days

    Time to hold our nerve re cases. Its the hospitals and deaths that should determine the unlocking.
    Yes, a bunch of under 16s testing positive really isn't a big deal but now I fear the zero COVID chumps will have their day in the sun based on completely worthless tests.
    Fortunately the ONS surveys will give a much clearer picture on cases.

    As noted, cases alone should not be the determining factor anyway, but it would still be good to have good data on cases. If cases (from the survey) don't start going up or only go up very slowly then it really is good news.

    The problem with hospitalisations/deaths as determining factor is the lag - if they start going up quickly it's already a bit late. But if the ratio of those to survey cases 2-3 weeks before keep dropping then there can be more confidence to not get too concerned about real case increases.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 432
    I am an SNP voter, who wants an independence referendum. I would want it to be delayed until Sturgeon has been replaced by someone more trustworthy. Maybe I’m one of the 6% drop.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 13,623
    Regarding the Police & Crime Commissar elections, I trust that all PBers with a vote in these elections will perform their civic duty and spoil their ballots. Sketches of genitalia optional.

    Happily, the role is being abolished in West Yorks.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,542
    Selebian said:

    MaxPB said:

    maaarsh said:

    Cases up. but c. 1400 are unconfirmed LFD

    England hospital beds now below 7k from a peak of 34k, and dropping by c.500 on week days

    Time to hold our nerve re cases. Its the hospitals and deaths that should determine the unlocking.
    Yes, a bunch of under 16s testing positive really isn't a big deal but now I fear the zero COVID chumps will have their day in the sun based on completely worthless tests.
    Fortunately the ONS surveys will give a much clearer picture on cases.

    As noted, cases alone should not be the determining factor anyway, but it would still be good to have good data on cases. If cases (from the survey) don't start going up or only go up very slowly then it really is good news.

    The problem with hospitalisations/deaths as determining factor is the lag - if they start going up quickly it's already a bit late. But if the ratio of those to survey cases 2-3 weeks before keep dropping then there can be more confidence to not get too concerned about real case increases.
    Yes agreed, going back to yesterday's discussion, I do wish that the government gave the ONS more funding for the study. Enough to allow it to do it in real time with door knocking and overnight results/collation two or three times per week rather than the weekly test based on lagged postal testing.

    I think if the ONS data varies from the LFT positives then the latter should simply be junked for this purpose. The only use case I have for them are to do mass regional testing with door knocking and follow up PCR tests for positives or likely positives.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 17,384

    Regarding the Police & Crime Commissar elections, I trust that all PBers with a vote in these elections will perform their civic duty and spoil their ballots. Sketches of genitalia optional.

    Happily, the role is being abolished in West Yorks.

    The tosser in Surrey put up their share of council tax by 5%.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 40,123
    Stocky said:

    Case decline slowing ("Back to School"?), deaths plumetting, positivity rate still ±0.5% - so still under control



    Very encouraging figures today.
    Deaths now sub-1,000 a week and falling fast. I suspect in a normal winter, early March flu deaths are not less than that.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 4,735
    MaxPB said:

    maaarsh said:

    Cases up. but c. 1400 are unconfirmed LFD

    England hospital beds now below 7k from a peak of 34k, and dropping by c.500 on week days

    Time to hold our nerve re cases. Its the hospitals and deaths that should determine the unlocking.
    Yes, a bunch of under 16s testing positive really isn't a big deal but now I fear the zero COVID chumps will have their day in the sun based on completely worthless tests.
    LOL You don't trust the Johnson government to stick with their timetable?

    What on earth do you base that lack of faith on?
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 1,796
    138 deaths reported in England today. 47 of those were over 3 weeks old in terms of actual date of death, including 3 from last year. Same as false positives will fog up cases, the big lags are going to start to make up an increasing share of the deaths number reported. Reality of deaths right now is already under 100 per day.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,676
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,676
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K population

    image
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,676
    edited March 11
    UK local R

    image
  • eekeek Posts: 12,249
    edited March 11
    tlg86 said:

    Regarding the Police & Crime Commissar elections, I trust that all PBers with a vote in these elections will perform their civic duty and spoil their ballots. Sketches of genitalia optional.

    Happily, the role is being abolished in West Yorks.

    The tosser in Surrey put up their share of council tax by 5%.
    In Durham it's gone up 7%

    But I will be voting for the Labour candidate as I do actually think a police commissioner should know something about policing.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,676
    UK cases summary

    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
    image
  • maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 1,796
    Selebian said:

    MaxPB said:

    maaarsh said:

    Cases up. but c. 1400 are unconfirmed LFD

    England hospital beds now below 7k from a peak of 34k, and dropping by c.500 on week days

    Time to hold our nerve re cases. Its the hospitals and deaths that should determine the unlocking.
    Yes, a bunch of under 16s testing positive really isn't a big deal but now I fear the zero COVID chumps will have their day in the sun based on completely worthless tests.
    Fortunately the ONS surveys will give a much clearer picture on cases.

    As noted, cases alone should not be the determining factor anyway, but it would still be good to have good data on cases. If cases (from the survey) don't start going up or only go up very slowly then it really is good news.

    The problem with hospitalisations/deaths as determining factor is the lag - if they start going up quickly it's already a bit late. But if the ratio of those to survey cases 2-3 weeks before keep dropping then there can be more confidence to not get too concerned about real case increases.
    I'm hope the ONS survey have now fixed their issue of repeatedly finding cases from people who had it 6 weeks earlier - for most of Jan & Feb their survey became pretty useless, claiming rates weren't falling despite the obvious.

    https://twitter.com/SueC00K/status/1369228306999087104
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,676
    UK hospitals

    image
    image
    image
    image
  • kamskikamski Posts: 1,944
    I misread it as "Prince William says Royal Family is not very much racist" which does sound more believable, and I guess lots of us can relate to having someone in the family who is a bit racist...
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,676
    UK deaths

    image
    image
    image
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 20,726

    I am an SNP voter, who wants an independence referendum. I would want it to be delayed until Sturgeon has been replaced by someone more trustworthy. Maybe I’m one of the 6% drop.

    I thought it was more you doubted her desire to get a Referendum rather than her ability to fight and win it?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,676
    UK R

    from case data

    image
    image

    from hospitalisations

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,676
    Age related data

    image
    image
    image
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 3,094
    The politics of Scotland are particularly vexed. One point which may be worth considering goes like this:

    Boris has no intention of losing Scotland on his watch, even though without Scotland he has better electoral chances.
    In current circumstances Labour have virtually no chance of forming a government without SNP support.
    In the next GE everyone will know that a vote for Labour is a vote to give SNP a central place in government and a second referendum when they want, as part of the Faustian pact.
    This increases Tory chances as against Labour in England.
    Boris could call a second referendum and try to win it in 2022/2023.
    But by doing so shoots his own fox and loses his election ammunition.
    So after the next election is the earliest for a second referendum.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,676
    Age related data, scaled to 100K population per age group

    image
    image
    image
  • CookieCookie Posts: 2,714
    The thing is, though - if not indy - what? Abolishing devolution, or even scaling it back, is never going to fly. But the current asymmetric arrangement is unstable and is always going to be a ratchet to 'more devolution' until Scotland is fully out the door. There's no appetite for an English parliament to balance things up - not that having one partner ten times the size of the next biggest could ever be called 'balanced'. And Balkanising England into regions seems fiercely unpopular. I've tried (devolution to county/city region level throughout the UK?) but I don't see any endpoint which doesn't result in Sindy.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 40,661
    algarkirk said:

    The politics of Scotland are particularly vexed. One point which may be worth considering goes like this:

    Boris has no intention of losing Scotland on his watch, even though without Scotland he has better electoral chances.
    In current circumstances Labour have virtually no chance of forming a government without SNP support.
    In the next GE everyone will know that a vote for Labour is a vote to give SNP a central place in government and a second referendum when they want, as part of the Faustian pact.
    This increases Tory chances as against Labour in England.
    Boris could call a second referendum and try to win it in 2022/2023.
    But by doing so shoots his own fox and loses his election ammunition.
    So after the next election is the earliest for a second referendum.

    And that assumes a pro independence majority continues in Scotland
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 13,676
    UK Vaccinations

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    image
    image
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 1,377
    That 14.8% in the UK points to sunny uplands for the Lib Dems :wink:
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 48,044
    EU gets "the reply in Arkell vs Pressdram":

    https://twitter.com/ReutersUK/status/1370050667189002246?s=20
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 20,726
    dixiedean said:

    If the SNP win a majority, but the polls look like a No, what will Sturgeon do?
    What will the PM do?
    We could be in the ludicrous situation of Westminster urging Indyref2 and the SNP trying to delay it.
    Nowt surprises me much these days.

    I'd say the SNP cannot afford to get a Referendum AND lose it. That would surely kill Sindy as a serious proposition for a long long time.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 5,677
    edited March 11
    1) Drakeford is another example of politicking a national emergency. He's clearly concerned that if the notion that we're out of the woods takes hold he'll have less to criticise the government about.
    2) Johnson's date of June 21 is not a "return to normal" date it is an end of legal restrictions date; not the same thing. There will likely still be guidance but we shall be free to ignore it if we wish.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 4,945
    edited March 11
    Asked by the i if he was hoping to see some form of normality return later this year Mr Drakeford said: "“I don’t think it is realistic to say that. I think coronavirus is with us for the rest of this year.

    "Another wave is baked into things now – it’s how we deal with that and have [another] wave that is as suppressed as we can make it so that we don’t have to take the sort of drastic action we’ve had to in the last 12 months.

    "But that does mean that things like social distancing, handwashing, and respect in the way we deal with other people, thinking carefully about the number of people we mix with – I think that’s with us for the whole of this calendar year.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,712
    edited March 11
    MaxPB said:

    Labour will make something of a comeback in Scotland, I think.

    I actually think so too, the new leader and that MSP questioning Sturgeon in the inquiry are both significant improvements on the previous team in Scotland. I think the Tories will hold on as well because Murray seems to be up to the job, the level of vitriol from the Nats on here against both unionists leaders (Lab/Tory) shows they now fear the result in May where they didn't under the previous leaders of both Scottish parties.

    It's all slipping away from the SNP and as that happens the bitterness levels will only increase from them and their supporters.
    Who is this Murray that you think is up to the job?
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 432

    Stocky said:

    Case decline slowing ("Back to School"?), deaths plumetting, positivity rate still ±0.5% - so still under control



    Very encouraging figures today.
    Deaths now sub-1,000 a week and falling fast. I suspect in a normal winter, early March flu deaths are not less than that.
    Are figures for excess still published?
  • StockyStocky Posts: 5,677
    kinabalu said:

    dixiedean said:

    If the SNP win a majority, but the polls look like a No, what will Sturgeon do?
    What will the PM do?
    We could be in the ludicrous situation of Westminster urging Indyref2 and the SNP trying to delay it.
    Nowt surprises me much these days.

    I'd say the SNP cannot afford to get a Referendum AND lose it. That would surely kill Sindy as a serious proposition for a long long time.
    That was said with regard to the first one.
  • eekeek Posts: 12,249
    What's the point asking for paperwork for items we would have accepted without paperwork on 30th December 2020?

    It makes little sense to insist on paperwork when we don't need it.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,306
    kinabalu said:

    dixiedean said:

    If the SNP win a majority, but the polls look like a No, what will Sturgeon do?
    What will the PM do?
    We could be in the ludicrous situation of Westminster urging Indyref2 and the SNP trying to delay it.
    Nowt surprises me much these days.

    I'd say the SNP cannot afford to get a Referendum AND lose it. That would surely kill Sindy as a serious proposition for a long long time.
    Maybe a whole 50 dog years...
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 8,492

    Case decline slowing ("Back to School"?), deaths plumetting, positivity rate still ±0.5% - so still under control



    Sure just a function of vastly increased testing.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 432
    edited March 11
    kinabalu said:

    I am an SNP voter, who wants an independence referendum. I would want it to be delayed until Sturgeon has been replaced by someone more trustworthy. Maybe I’m one of the 6% drop.

    I thought it was more you doubted her desire to get a Referendum rather than her ability to fight and win it?
    A bit of both, TBH.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 84,095
    Certainly from today's Comres it looks like the SNP could lose their majority at Holyrood.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1370002135362985987?s=20

    Parties have also been able to deliver leaflets and to canvass with facemasks, 1 per door, since Monday
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 3,331
    I thought SNP policy was for a referendum in 2022, not this year? Possibly a rather pointless question.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 84,095
    Floater said:
    That is a traditional Tuvalu welcome, it would have been rude to refuse it
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 10,637
    MaxPB said:

    Labour will make something of a comeback in Scotland, I think.

    I actually think so too, the new leader and that MSP questioning Sturgeon in the inquiry are both significant improvements on the previous team in Scotland. I think the Tories will hold on as well because Murray seems to be up to the job, the level of vitriol from the Nats on here against both unionists leaders (Lab/Tory) shows they now fear the result in May where they didn't under the previous leaders of both Scottish parties.

    It's all slipping away from the SNP and as that happens the bitterness levels will only increase from them and their supporters.
    Eh? Mr Murray is a Labour MP. Mind, it can be difficult to tell the difference with him and the Tories sometimes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,758
    HYUFD said:

    Certainly from today's Comres it looks like the SNP could lose their majority at Holyrood.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1370002135362985987?s=20

    Parties have also been able to deliver leaflets and to canvass with facemasks, 1 per door, since Monday

    29 for Con looks awfully high from recent predictions, but an overall result closer to standing still would be good. Really need it to be a trend, not a flash in the pan though.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,306
    HYUFD said:
    'When Menico sends its people, they’re not sending their best... They’re sending people that have lots of problems, and they’re bringing those problems to us. They’re bringing drugs. They’re bringing crime. They’re rapists. And some, I assume, are good people...'
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 20,726
    Stocky said:

    1) Drakeford is another example of politicking a national emergency. He's clearly concerned that if the notion that we're out of the woods takes hold he'll have less to criticise the government about.
    2) Johnson's date of June 21 is not a "return to normal" date it is an end of legal restrictions date; not the same thing. There will likely still be guidance but we shall be free to ignore it if we wish.
    Noooo - your exotic apostrophes have gone!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,279
    HYUFD said:

    Certainly from today's Comres it looks like the SNP could lose their majority at Holyrood.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1370002135362985987?s=20

    Parties have also been able to deliver leaflets and to canvass with facemasks, 1 per door, since Monday

    Point of order, they don't currently have one.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 10,637
    HYUFD said:

    Certainly from today's Comres it looks like the SNP could lose their majority at Holyrood.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1370002135362985987?s=20

    Parties have also been able to deliver leaflets and to canvass with facemasks, 1 per door, since Monday

    So? Still a pro-independence majority which is what really counts.

    On your previous logic, I could argue that the massive defeat of the Tories, ie the single largest unionist party, shows that unionism is something Mr Johnson should reject.

    And I'd be tempted to put a bet on Mr Wightman getting an independent's list seat in the Highlands and Islands.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 27,996

    Regarding the Police & Crime Commissar elections, I trust that all PBers with a vote in these elections will perform their civic duty and spoil their ballots. Sketches of genitalia optional.

    Happily, the role is being abolished in West Yorks.

    Absolutely. The whole idea of this democratically accountable position was absurd from the start.

    We the people want no say whatsoever in these things.
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 432
    HYUFD said:

    Certainly from today's Comres it looks like the SNP could lose their majority at Holyrood.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1370002135362985987?s=20

    Parties have also been able to deliver leaflets and to canvass with facemasks, 1 per door, since Monday

    The SNP don’t currently have a majority. They rely on another party (normally the Greens) to pass legislation.

  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 10,637
    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly from today's Comres it looks like the SNP could lose their majority at Holyrood.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1370002135362985987?s=20

    Parties have also been able to deliver leaflets and to canvass with facemasks, 1 per door, since Monday

    Point of order, they don't currently have one.
    It does make one wonder about experts when they make basic mistakes like that.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,542

    EU gets "the reply in Arkell vs Pressdram":

    https://twitter.com/ReutersUK/status/1370050667189002246?s=20

    Points to the FDA being ready to approve it soon. The UK data is undeniably good and a single dose of AZ has higher efficacy than the already approved J&J vaccine.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,271
    eek said:

    What's the point asking for paperwork for items we would have accepted without paperwork on 30th December 2020?

    It makes little sense to insist on paperwork when we don't need it.
    Because all the countries that the UK did require that paperwork from on 30th December, and still does, will be complaining to the WTO that the UK is giving the EU preferential treatment.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 2,714

    MaxPB said:

    Almost 2k LFT positives in today's figures. Not surprised that PHE have made the data public becuase those tests are, IMO, worthless. The false positive/negative rate on them is far too high to be counted the same as a PCR positive.

    This is exactly what I feared would happen, we get a whole bunch of pointless tests pushing up the perceived infection rate. Soon we'll get the usual suspects like that idiot zero COVID Scottish woman talking about how risky the current timetable is etc...

    We really shouldn't have bothered with this strategy and just done it without the tests and had weekly PCR testing for teachers as a reduction in transmission vector.

    False positive rates on LFTs can't be higher than the total positive rate.
    For the 8th of March (latest date to be sure almost all data is in), there were 1,481,812 LFTs given in England to provide 1,012 positives. Thus a positive rate under 0.07%.

    Therefore a false positive rate of, at the very worst, under 0.07%
    That ain't bad, I'd have said.
    Well yes.
    But similarly, it seems unlikely to my non-specialist brain that false positives can be much lower than that. Tests simply aren't - as I understand it - that accurate. So it may well be the case that the majority of the LFTs are positive.
    That's still a very low false positive rate, as you say, so at the macro level, assuming we make the correct inferences, not a problem. But it's an awful lot of people who we're going to ruin the next fortnight for unnecessarily.

    Will we make the right inferences? The signs are better than I feared - noises have been made about decoupling of positive tests from hospitalisations and deaths, and how it is the latter which is more important. I'm pleased to see this. And being clear about the results from LFTs is also encouraging. However, there will always be voices not to reopen, and this does play into their hands, because most people don't [ay enough attention to the details.

    And while I know that positive tests aren't the best data we have, they are a) the richest data source, and b) a leading indicator - so it's a little sad that we can't use them in the way we'd like.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,279
    HYUFD said:
    A fair compromise given that women have to be in the kitchen by 6pm.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,542
    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    Labour will make something of a comeback in Scotland, I think.

    I actually think so too, the new leader and that MSP questioning Sturgeon in the inquiry are both significant improvements on the previous team in Scotland. I think the Tories will hold on as well because Murray seems to be up to the job, the level of vitriol from the Nats on here against both unionists leaders (Lab/Tory) shows they now fear the result in May where they didn't under the previous leaders of both Scottish parties.

    It's all slipping away from the SNP and as that happens the bitterness levels will only increase from them and their supporters.
    Eh? Mr Murray is a Labour MP. Mind, it can be difficult to tell the difference with him and the Tories sometimes.
    Meant to say Ross, apologies for not knowing all of the random Scottish politicians by name.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 8,492
    MaxPB said:

    Almost 2k LFT positives in today's figures. Not surprised that PHE have made the data public becuase those tests are, IMO, worthless. The false positive/negative rate on them is far too high to be counted the same as a PCR positive.

    This is exactly what I feared would happen, we get a whole bunch of pointless tests pushing up the perceived infection rate. Soon we'll get the usual suspects like that idiot zero COVID Scottish woman talking about how risky the current timetable is etc...

    We really shouldn't have bothered with this strategy and just done it without the tests and had weekly PCR testing for teachers as a reduction in transmission vector.

    This is indeed the danger. I too am concerned about this. People don't seem to grasp that more testing = more positive tests (not actually more cases).
  • FairlieredFairliered Posts: 432
    edited March 11
    Putting my non-partisan hat back on: would the UK Government be willing to give up tax and spending powers, i.e. devo max?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 26,712
    edited March 11
    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    Labour will make something of a comeback in Scotland, I think.

    I actually think so too, the new leader and that MSP questioning Sturgeon in the inquiry are both significant improvements on the previous team in Scotland. I think the Tories will hold on as well because Murray seems to be up to the job, the level of vitriol from the Nats on here against both unionists leaders (Lab/Tory) shows they now fear the result in May where they didn't under the previous leaders of both Scottish parties.

    It's all slipping away from the SNP and as that happens the bitterness levels will only increase from them and their supporters.
    Eh? Mr Murray is a Labour MP. Mind, it can be difficult to tell the difference with him and the Tories sometimes.
    I think its Douglas Ross, currently MP for Moray, that's being referred to. I saw someone refer to him on twitter as Forres Gump recently which tickled me.

    Never change, PB Scotch experts!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 53,279
    Carnyx said:

    RobD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly from today's Comres it looks like the SNP could lose their majority at Holyrood.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1370002135362985987?s=20

    Parties have also been able to deliver leaflets and to canvass with facemasks, 1 per door, since Monday

    Point of order, they don't currently have one.
    It does make one wonder about experts when they make basic mistakes like that.
    I'm guessing he meant their projected majority.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 10,637
    MaxPB said:

    Carnyx said:

    MaxPB said:

    Labour will make something of a comeback in Scotland, I think.

    I actually think so too, the new leader and that MSP questioning Sturgeon in the inquiry are both significant improvements on the previous team in Scotland. I think the Tories will hold on as well because Murray seems to be up to the job, the level of vitriol from the Nats on here against both unionists leaders (Lab/Tory) shows they now fear the result in May where they didn't under the previous leaders of both Scottish parties.

    It's all slipping away from the SNP and as that happens the bitterness levels will only increase from them and their supporters.
    Eh? Mr Murray is a Labour MP. Mind, it can be difficult to tell the difference with him and the Tories sometimes.
    Meant to say Ross, apologies for not knowing all of the random Scottish politicians by name.
    One does tend to confuse one's Mormaers and Thanes.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 64,758
    Carnyx said:

    HYUFD said:

    Certainly from today's Comres it looks like the SNP could lose their majority at Holyrood.

    https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1370002135362985987?s=20

    Parties have also been able to deliver leaflets and to canvass with facemasks, 1 per door, since Monday

    So? Still a pro-independence majority which is what really counts.
    The SNP in themselves not having a majority, makes it easier for Boris to ignore demands for a referendum, even though it makes no practical difference to either the parliament having a Sindy majority, nor indeed to his decision to ignore the demands, which would happen regardless. So it matters in the sense of the arguments used to ignore will alter slightly, but the core issues would be unchanged.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 4,069
    eek said:

    What's the point asking for paperwork for items we would have accepted without paperwork on 30th December 2020?

    It makes little sense to insist on paperwork when we don't need it.
    Indeed. There seems little danger continuing to import from the EU paperwork-free. We know their regulatory standards are up to snuff.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 84,095

    I thought SNP policy was for a referendum in 2022, not this year? Possibly a rather pointless question.
    Scots oppose a referendum next year by 48% to 33%. Only 42% of Scots even support an indyref2 in the next 5 years.

    https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/5jtqxj3u8b/TimesResults_Scotland_210308_W1.pdf
  • Yet the YouGov poll says the SNP are on course for a majority, although curiously they have the same independence scores as ComRes.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 27,542

    MaxPB said:

    Almost 2k LFT positives in today's figures. Not surprised that PHE have made the data public becuase those tests are, IMO, worthless. The false positive/negative rate on them is far too high to be counted the same as a PCR positive.

    This is exactly what I feared would happen, we get a whole bunch of pointless tests pushing up the perceived infection rate. Soon we'll get the usual suspects like that idiot zero COVID Scottish woman talking about how risky the current timetable is etc...

    We really shouldn't have bothered with this strategy and just done it without the tests and had weekly PCR testing for teachers as a reduction in transmission vector.

    False positive rates on LFTs can't be higher than the total positive rate.
    For the 8th of March (latest date to be sure almost all data is in), there were 1,481,812 LFTs given in England to provide 1,012 positives. Thus a positive rate under 0.07%.

    Therefore a false positive rate of, at the very worst, under 0.07%
    That ain't bad, I'd have said.
    I mean in absolute terms because of such a huge number of tests it can add up and make something from nothing. The whole LFT scheme just seems needless and looking for trouble that doesn't exist.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 11,569
    kinabalu said:

    dixiedean said:

    If the SNP win a majority, but the polls look like a No, what will Sturgeon do?
    What will the PM do?
    We could be in the ludicrous situation of Westminster urging Indyref2 and the SNP trying to delay it.
    Nowt surprises me much these days.

    I'd say the SNP cannot afford to get a Referendum AND lose it. That would surely kill Sindy as a serious proposition for a long long time.
    That's what happened in Quebec. Even though the second one was wafer thin (and slightly dubious).
    Not sure if that transfers across. But the psychology would be similar.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 20,726

    kinabalu said:

    dixiedean said:

    If the SNP win a majority, but the polls look like a No, what will Sturgeon do?
    What will the PM do?
    We could be in the ludicrous situation of Westminster urging Indyref2 and the SNP trying to delay it.
    Nowt surprises me much these days.

    I'd say the SNP cannot afford to get a Referendum AND lose it. That would surely kill Sindy as a serious proposition for a long long time.
    Maybe a whole 50 dog years...
    I don't think that sets a precedent. There's a compelling case for another vote now (subject to Holyrood mandate) because Scotland is being yanked out of the EU against their clear and settled will. But if they get it and vote No again, I think that's it for quite some time. The notion they will keep having Sindy Referendums every second Tuesday until they fluke a Yes is for the birds. That's a view held only by Scotophobes of the utmost paranoia.
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