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After the damaging spat with Salmond can Sturgeon lead the SNP to a Holyrood majority on May 4th? –
After the damaging spat with Salmond can Sturgeon lead the SNP to a Holyrood majority on May 4th? – politicalbetting.com
We are now just eight weeks away from the May 4th when there’ll be the biggest group of elections taking place in the UK outside a general election. For as well as those contests that were scheduled to take place this year there are all those which had to be postponed last year because of the pandemic.
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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-vaccine-eu-johnson-idUSKBN29I1EM
Obligation to start immediately my arse.
They need to acquaint themselves with the content of their contracts, and then work constructively within that.
May 6th is when the Sith hits the fan...
https://www.britainelects.com/2021/03/11/previewing-the-scottish-council-by-elections-of-11th-march/
Aird and Loch Ness, Leaderdale and Melrose & Livingston South.
https://twitter.com/AyoCaesar/status/1369976435105030155
England hospital beds now below 7k from a peak of 34k, and dropping by c.500 on week days
This is exactly what I feared would happen, we get a whole bunch of pointless tests pushing up the perceived infection rate. Soon we'll get the usual suspects like that idiot zero COVID Scottish woman talking about how risky the current timetable is etc...
We really shouldn't have bothered with this strategy and just done it without the tests and had weekly PCR testing for teachers as a reduction in transmission vector.
Just glad they have split the figures out as it could have easily been kept under wraps given how keen they are to promote the narrative that R is about to go back over 1.
https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1370041348074696707?s=20
What will the PM do?
We could be in the ludicrous situation of Westminster urging Indyref2 and the SNP trying to delay it.
Nowt surprises me much these days.
https://twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1370044730193633280
It's all slipping away from the SNP and as that happens the bitterness levels will only increase from them and their supporters.
Good afternoon, everybody.
And the country that has lowest score for "Weakened the EU" is....the UK!
https://twitter.com/DarrenEuronews/status/1370045028303826945?s=20
As noted, cases alone should not be the determining factor anyway, but it would still be good to have good data on cases. If cases (from the survey) don't start going up or only go up very slowly then it really is good news.
The problem with hospitalisations/deaths as determining factor is the lag - if they start going up quickly it's already a bit late. But if the ratio of those to survey cases 2-3 weeks before keep dropping then there can be more confidence to not get too concerned about real case increases.
Happily, the role is being abolished in West Yorks.
I think if the ONS data varies from the LFT positives then the latter should simply be junked for this purpose. The only use case I have for them are to do mass regional testing with door knocking and follow up PCR tests for positives or likely positives.
What on earth do you base that lack of faith on?
https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1370048869703290884?s=20
But I will be voting for the Labour candidate as I do actually think a police commissioner should know something about policing.
https://twitter.com/SueC00K/status/1369228306999087104
Drakeford:
June 21 freedom is 'fanciful'
LOL
from case data
from hospitalisations
Boris has no intention of losing Scotland on his watch, even though without Scotland he has better electoral chances.
In current circumstances Labour have virtually no chance of forming a government without SNP support.
In the next GE everyone will know that a vote for Labour is a vote to give SNP a central place in government and a second referendum when they want, as part of the Faustian pact.
This increases Tory chances as against Labour in England.
Boris could call a second referendum and try to win it in 2022/2023.
But by doing so shoots his own fox and loses his election ammunition.
So after the next election is the earliest for a second referendum.
Brexit is a disaster
https://twitter.com/ReutersUK/status/1370050667189002246?s=20
2) Johnson's date of June 21 is not a "return to normal" date it is an end of legal restrictions date; not the same thing. There will likely still be guidance but we shall be free to ignore it if we wish.
For the 8th of March (latest date to be sure almost all data is in), there were 1,481,812 LFTs given in England to provide 1,012 positives. Thus a positive rate under 0.07%.
Therefore a false positive rate of, at the very worst, under 0.07%
That ain't bad, I'd have said.
"Another wave is baked into things now – it’s how we deal with that and have [another] wave that is as suppressed as we can make it so that we don’t have to take the sort of drastic action we’ve had to in the last 12 months.
"But that does mean that things like social distancing, handwashing, and respect in the way we deal with other people, thinking carefully about the number of people we mix with – I think that’s with us for the whole of this calendar year.”
It makes little sense to insist on paperwork when we don't need it.
https://twitter.com/BallotBoxScot/status/1370002135362985987?s=20
Parties have also been able to deliver leaflets and to canvass with facemasks, 1 per door, since Monday
On your previous logic, I could argue that the massive defeat of the Tories, ie the single largest unionist party, shows that unionism is something Mr Johnson should reject.
And I'd be tempted to put a bet on Mr Wightman getting an independent's list seat in the Highlands and Islands.
We the people want no say whatsoever in these things.
But similarly, it seems unlikely to my non-specialist brain that false positives can be much lower than that. Tests simply aren't - as I understand it - that accurate. So it may well be the case that the majority of the LFTs are positive.
That's still a very low false positive rate, as you say, so at the macro level, assuming we make the correct inferences, not a problem. But it's an awful lot of people who we're going to ruin the next fortnight for unnecessarily.
Will we make the right inferences? The signs are better than I feared - noises have been made about decoupling of positive tests from hospitalisations and deaths, and how it is the latter which is more important. I'm pleased to see this. And being clear about the results from LFTs is also encouraging. However, there will always be voices not to reopen, and this does play into their hands, because most people don't [ay enough attention to the details.
And while I know that positive tests aren't the best data we have, they are a) the richest data source, and b) a leading indicator - so it's a little sad that we can't use them in the way we'd like.
Never change, PB Scotch experts!
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/5jtqxj3u8b/TimesResults_Scotland_210308_W1.pdf
Not sure if that transfers across. But the psychology would be similar.