Mental. I'm honestly shocked that Labour are getting no look in despite the Tories delivering 125k excess deaths in a year and putting taxes up quite significantly for individuals.
The Tories did not deliver 125k excess deaths.
They did and they havent finished yet
World beating death rates down to Tory mismanagement of the crisis and 10 years of Austerity meaning our infrastructure going into it was terrible
Needs to be said every day like Labours recession
Theres an idea
Maybe saying it every day to a public who find the claim both implausible and opportunistic is part of the reason for the current poll movement.
I don't think that means a great deal about its actual worth, but it does demonstrate Rishi has done a good political job in selling it.
And that in a pandemic voters are much more understanding, which explains a lot about the failure of Labour to breakthrough, and also highlights that the Budget was actually a missed opportunity for changes that both parties agree privately need to be made, but are politically unpalatable.
I don't think that means a great deal about its actual worth, but it does demonstrate Rishi has done a good political job in selling it.
And that in a pandemic voters are much more understanding, which explains a lot about the failure of Labour to breakthrough, and also highlights that the Budget was actually a missed opportunity for changes that both parties agree privately need to be made, but are politically unpalatable.
A time to be bold and, possibly, even tell the unvarnished truth on a few difficult issues. There won't be another time when people will be as receptive.
Mental. I'm honestly shocked that Labour are getting no look in despite the Tories delivering 125k excess deaths in a year and putting taxes up quite significantly for individuals.
The Tories did not deliver 125k excess deaths.
They did and they havent finished yet
World beating death rates down to Tory mismanagement of the crisis and 10 years of Austerity meaning our infrastructure going into it was terrible
Needs to be said every day like Labours recession
Theres an idea
Maybe saying it every day to a public who find the claim both implausible and opportunistic is part of the reason for the current poll movement.
Realistically that has nothing to do with it. People are just satisfied with how things are going generally and are optimistic about the future. Why change?
Labour's problems are amply demonstrated by its leader, a north London lawyer, getting it oh so wrong about levelling up yesterday. Put Darlington solidly in the blue column next time - and probably a raft of Red Wall seats too, if the Keir sneer is all they are going to get.
Starmer didn't sneer about Darlington at all. The full quote was on the last thread - did you read it? He was making a valid point that any government that was deadly serious about levelling up would be doing much more radical reform than was contained in yesterday's budget. I don't have a problem with what Sunak announced on Darlington and other measures (and nor does Starmer), and it's a start, but the structural reforms needed to really equalise power, wealth and influence across the regions will take a lot more genuinely redistributive measures than the Tories would countenance, I suspect. At the moment, the shifting of resources to the north seems to be mainly focused on securing marginal seats. Mind you, I'm not sure that the current Labour Party would countenance the sort of changes needed to move power away from London either.
Yes. Not to be po-faced but the standard of political debate is really heading south.
Yes, I've been posting on here for a year now. (Before that I lurked, but was too busy to post because I had to earn a living - god knows how some people on here who still work find the time to post so much.) There remain many really interesting and thoughtful posters who contribute to debate, from all sides, and make me think. However, I'm pretty confident that there's been a notable increase over the last year in partisan point-scoring focusing on absolute trivia; it sort of mirrors the approach of a government in permanent campaigning, point-scoring mode, I guess. Far be it for me to suggest which side of the political spectrum most of the trivia comes from. And I'm not talking about the humorous posts, which are splendid - just the sort of fake news, attack the 'woke', gotcha posts.
Only a year? I've done a 3 stretch. Yes, there is perhaps a sense of PB.com BTL trending with the climate. There's a whiff of one party rule and triumphalism after the Johnson landslide and the realization that almost regardless of events, he and they can bank on 40% core support (and thus be hot favourites under FPTP) because they own the dominant English political identity of Leave. "Bliss it was in that dawn to be alive, but to be a Tory Leaver was very heaven". There's a lot of this sentiment and it fuels bumption. Ah well. Tides turn. Could do with that "onlylivingboy" poster back. Seem to have lost our midfield playmaker there.
Actually, I like to think if we were still in the EU we would indeed have persuaded them to behave in a more reasonable way, so I suppose I agree with Layla Moran on this.
But the argument makes no sense when it was being argued, and I accept I was one of them, that the UK going it alone would end up with a worse outcome than the EU on this issue.
She was surely one of the people outraged about our lack of involvement in the EU scheme on the basis we would face a worse outcome, therefore if she did argue that, her reasoning was that the UK was worse at such negotiations.
Accordingly, how can it be subsequently argued to also believe we would have improved their response?
Couldn't agree more with this article, which tackles everything I dislike about the Labour Party. Come down off the moral high ground and ditch the woke crap. Start talking about the difference you could make to people's lives.
Can what you suggest here - on tone and empathy - be combined with radical re-distributive policies, do you think?
No, and I don;t think they should be. "Radical re-distributive policies" is translated by Labour activists as smash capitalism, and by Labour-skeptics as a threat to their own taxes / jobs.
I don't think there is anything fundamentally broken in the economy that can't be fixed (the constitutional settlement is another thing entirely...). We have seen the Chancellor turbocharge one change I have called for - investment. The other major change is to pivot away from "benefits" and back to a social security safety net.
More investment by more businesses equals more jobs and more consumption. Couple that with an end to the notion that any handout to the needy is a personal affront to the taxpayer and we can build something sustainable.
Right, thanks. We see this a bit differently, I think. I totally agree with the point that Labour has to earn a hearing again with those of its traditional supporters who have started voting Tory. And if those people do feel sneered at by the party, this has to change as a prerequisite for any revival in that space (which is needed to have a chance). I myself suspect it's more about Tories telling folk that Labour sneer at them - this being a crossover opportunity from the Leave/Remain culture battles which they are running with for all they are worth because they know they have little else to offer - rather than much actual sneering going on, but that's by the by. Perception is reality in politics.
So, yes, the party has to deal with that, the empathy and tone, preferably without being patronizing and phony, but if patronizing and phony works, hell let's do it. But - and this for me is a big but - the actual policies rolled onto this more receptive pitch should be mainly about reducing the correlation between life prospects and birth circumstances, family affluence, your class, race, gender. There has to be an egalitarian spirit informing Labour's politics. If there isn't, I would still vote for them, that's a given, the worst Labour government is better in my eyes than the best Tory one, but I would no longer be enthused enough to stay a member.
Getting big business - instead of individuals and families alone - to share the burden of closing the deficit looks like a political masterstroke. As some of us may have observed yesterday.
As so often, a political masterstroke is economically illiterate.
Sunak is the most political chancellor since Gordon Brown.
Labour's problems are amply demonstrated by its leader, a north London lawyer, getting it oh so wrong about levelling up yesterday. Put Darlington solidly in the blue column next time - and probably a raft of Red Wall seats too, if the Keir sneer is all they are going to get.
Starmer didn't sneer about Darlington at all. The full quote was on the last thread - did you read it? He was making a valid point that any government that was deadly serious about levelling up would be doing much more radical reform than was contained in yesterday's budget. I don't have a problem with what Sunak announced on Darlington and other measures (and nor does Starmer), and it's a start, but the structural reforms needed to really equalise power, wealth and influence across the regions will take a lot more genuinely redistributive measures than the Tories would countenance, I suspect. At the moment, the shifting of resources to the north seems to be mainly focused on securing marginal seats. Mind you, I'm not sure that the current Labour Party would countenance the sort of changes needed to move power away from London either.
Yes. Not to be po-faced but the standard of political debate is really heading south.
Yes, I've been posting on here for a year now. (Before that I lurked, but was too busy to post because I had to earn a living - god knows how some people on here who still work find the time to post so much.) There remain many really interesting and thoughtful posters who contribute to debate, from all sides, and make me think. However, I'm pretty confident that there's been a notable increase over the last year in partisan point-scoring focusing on absolute trivia; it sort of mirrors the approach of a government in permanent campaigning, point-scoring mode, I guess. Far be it for me to suggest which side of the political spectrum most of the trivia comes from. And I'm not talking about the humorous posts, which are splendid - just the sort of fake news, attack the 'woke', gotcha posts.
Only a year? I've done a 3 stretch. Yes, there is perhaps a sense of PB.com BTL trending with the climate. There's a whiff of one party rule and triumphalism after the Johnson landslide and the realization that almost regardless of events, he and they can bank on 40% core support (and thus be hot favourites under FPTP) because they own the dominant English political identity of Leave. "Bliss it was in that dawn to be alive, but to be a Tory Leaver was very heaven". There's a lot of this sentiment and it fuels bumption. Ah well. Tides turn. Could do with that "onlylivingboy" poster back. Seem to have lost our midfield playmaker there.
C'mon Kinabalu, you're better than that.
Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive,
It's an iambic bleedin' pentameter, innit?
Neither of them is classic iambic pentameter, which requires one short unstressed syllable followed by one long stressed syllable, repeated five times per line
That's strange. PB Brains Trust I get it. But First Minister vs some random doctor?
Who do you think has the better access to the bigger picture and advice?
PB Brains Trust, obv.
While this is clearly a joke, in fact there has been some very sound thinking and advice on this very forum. There are enough experts from a wide variety of disciplines to contribute. A bit like how parliament ought to be, but sadly isn't. If pb was in charge of the pandemic response, it would have been 'different', but also interesting...
How `bout this for a PB.com cabinet:
Prime Minister: Stodge Chancellor of the Exchequer: Contrarian Foreign Secretary: DavidL Home Secretary: Black Rook Justice: Kinabalu Health: Gallowgate Work and pensions: Nabavi Education: Ydoethur Department for International Trade: PT Defence: HYUFD Secretary of State for Scotland: MalcyG Chief Whip: Topping
This a cabinet from the 1950s.
Cyclefree is making the tea, right ?
Don't worry. I've been sacked after a rumpus at the first meeting and she is now at Justice.
The pb.com cabinet has now moved from the 1950s to the early 1960s.
Much more work needed on EDI, pb.com is still way, way behind the wicked Tories
Yes, and it needs root & branch reform not mere tinkering. We need to get more women and minorities (inc young people under 55) to want to enter PB.com in the first place. The barriers must be removed and at least for a period there could be value in giving things a firm push with some affirmative action.
I've just managed to get away from work and chores and am just catching up.
The rolling average for the UK positive test rate is now 84.4 per 100k; I can't remember the exact value from yesterday but I think it was 89-point-something, so once again down about five over a 24-hour period. Again there are only two local authority areas with rates above 200 per 100k: this time it's Corby and NW Leics, rather than Leicester. Numbers are still reasonably low all over Wales and have cratered almost everywhere South of London. Things still look like they're headed in the right direction.
Getting big business - instead of individuals and families alone - to share the burden of closing the deficit looks like a political masterstroke. As some of us may have observed yesterday.
As so often, a political masterstroke is economically illiterate.
Sunak is the most political chancellor since Gordon Brown.
The voting bloc (pensioners and house owners) have been protected.
The rest of us are getting austerity in public services, and if we do actually anticipate salary growth it will be clawed away in taxation.
That’s if we have a job. Unemployment is expected to rise to 7% by summer.
It’s about jobs, meaningful jobs. And support from state services that allow all to live in dignity.
Rishi’s budget actually continues the austerity of the 2010s, and doesn’t really do anything for jobs with the exception of the corporate investment subsidy.
Keir does get this I think, if my scanning of his budget response is fair - but he hasn’t figured out how to communicate that properly to the public in a compelling way.
Austerity is not quite the word for a Conservative government whose expenditure is £850 bn, a huge proportion of which is borrowed, and vast sums of which are redistributed to less well off people.
Austerity to public services. Austerity in wage growth.
Private sector wages won't grow as long as employers have an effectively infinite labour pool to fish in. I am a senior software engineer and can tell you when you go job hunting the wages companies offer now are on par with the wages they offered in 2002 outside of a couple of very niche specialities.
It used to be if your company decided against payrises then you could get one by changing job. No longer true anymore at least in my role. Think on that....I currently earn the same amount as I did in 2002. So do most of my colleagues. Yet we are constantly being told there is a shortage of it workers.
The only people I know who work in the private sector that have seen payrises are all minimum wage workers due to minimum wage being uprated.
Brexit for many was a chance to cut down the size of the labour pool. It was remainer Rose after all that said we should remain in the eu else wages might rise
No, I disagree. The reason wages haven’t risen are a combination of -
Globalisation, including offshoring A bias toward capital and away from labour The flourishing of zero-contract gig workers Stalled productivity growth in corporate UK
As far as I am concerned, European immigration was actually a great boost for U.K. productivity and actually tended to increase wages for native born employees.
Well lets see, wages were rising steadily in my industry slightly above inflation till 2002-2003....I wonder what happened then?
Same as for plumbers, electricians. When supply is higher than demand price decrease . Supply of labour increased you can try and blame it on other stuff all you want but we had all that stuff when wages were increasing too.
You just don't like being told that FoM caused any problems. It undoubtedly did.
Labour's problems are amply demonstrated by its leader, a north London lawyer, getting it oh so wrong about levelling up yesterday. Put Darlington solidly in the blue column next time - and probably a raft of Red Wall seats too, if the Keir sneer is all they are going to get.
Starmer didn't sneer about Darlington at all. The full quote was on the last thread - did you read it? He was making a valid point that any government that was deadly serious about levelling up would be doing much more radical reform than was contained in yesterday's budget. I don't have a problem with what Sunak announced on Darlington and other measures (and nor does Starmer), and it's a start, but the structural reforms needed to really equalise power, wealth and influence across the regions will take a lot more genuinely redistributive measures than the Tories would countenance, I suspect. At the moment, the shifting of resources to the north seems to be mainly focused on securing marginal seats. Mind you, I'm not sure that the current Labour Party would countenance the sort of changes needed to move power away from London either.
Yes. Not to be po-faced but the standard of political debate is really heading south.
Yes, I've been posting on here for a year now. (Before that I lurked, but was too busy to post because I had to earn a living - god knows how some people on here who still work find the time to post so much.) There remain many really interesting and thoughtful posters who contribute to debate, from all sides, and make me think. However, I'm pretty confident that there's been a notable increase over the last year in partisan point-scoring focusing on absolute trivia; it sort of mirrors the approach of a government in permanent campaigning, point-scoring mode, I guess. Far be it for me to suggest which side of the political spectrum most of the trivia comes from. And I'm not talking about the humorous posts, which are splendid - just the sort of fake news, attack the 'woke', gotcha posts.
Only a year? I've done a 3 stretch. Yes, there is perhaps a sense of PB.com BTL trending with the climate. There's a whiff of one party rule and triumphalism after the Johnson landslide and the realization that almost regardless of events, he and they can bank on 40% core support (and thus be hot favourites under FPTP) because they own the dominant English political identity of Leave. "Bliss it was in that dawn to be alive, but to be a Tory Leaver was very heaven". There's a lot of this sentiment and it fuels bumption. Ah well. Tides turn. Could do with that "onlylivingboy" poster back. Seem to have lost our midfield playmaker there.
I'm too old and out of touch - what are you using BTL to mean? Not buy to let surely?
That's strange. PB Brains Trust I get it. But First Minister vs some random doctor?
Who do you think has the better access to the bigger picture and advice?
PB Brains Trust, obv.
While this is clearly a joke, in fact there has been some very sound thinking and advice on this very forum. There are enough experts from a wide variety of disciplines to contribute. A bit like how parliament ought to be, but sadly isn't. If pb was in charge of the pandemic response, it would have been 'different', but also interesting...
How `bout this for a PB.com cabinet:
Prime Minister: Stodge Chancellor of the Exchequer: Contrarian Foreign Secretary: DavidL Home Secretary: Black Rook Justice: Kinabalu Health: Gallowgate Work and pensions: Nabavi Education: Ydoethur Department for International Trade: PT Defence: HYUFD Secretary of State for Scotland: MalcyG Chief Whip: Topping
This a cabinet from the 1950s.
Cyclefree is making the tea, right ?
Don't worry. I've been sacked after a rumpus at the first meeting and she is now at Justice.
The pb.com cabinet has now moved from the 1950s to the early 1960s.
Much more work needed on EDI, pb.com is still way, way behind the wicked Tories
Yes, and it needs root & branch reform not mere tinkering. We need to get more women and minorities (inc young people under 55) to want to enter PB.com in the first place. The barriers must be removed and at least for a period there could be value in giving things a firm push with some affirmative action.
I, a formerly loyal tory voter, am completely and utterly furious with the party I used to support. I've never been more angry with them.
Every other tory voter, every single one, and a few non-tories besides, appear on board.
Ah well, a week is a long time in politics.
I think the root of your ire is the departure from basing decisions on conservative principles and instead basing them on naked populism. Is that right? Out of interest did you support Brexit?
On topic: nobody's going to offer an English Parliament. We only get that when the other three parts have all fallen off and the British state consequently ceases to exist by default.
Labour's problems are amply demonstrated by its leader, a north London lawyer, getting it oh so wrong about levelling up yesterday. Put Darlington solidly in the blue column next time - and probably a raft of Red Wall seats too, if the Keir sneer is all they are going to get.
Starmer didn't sneer about Darlington at all. The full quote was on the last thread - did you read it? He was making a valid point that any government that was deadly serious about levelling up would be doing much more radical reform than was contained in yesterday's budget. I don't have a problem with what Sunak announced on Darlington and other measures (and nor does Starmer), and it's a start, but the structural reforms needed to really equalise power, wealth and influence across the regions will take a lot more genuinely redistributive measures than the Tories would countenance, I suspect. At the moment, the shifting of resources to the north seems to be mainly focused on securing marginal seats. Mind you, I'm not sure that the current Labour Party would countenance the sort of changes needed to move power away from London either.
Yes. Not to be po-faced but the standard of political debate is really heading south.
Yes, I've been posting on here for a year now. (Before that I lurked, but was too busy to post because I had to earn a living - god knows how some people on here who still work find the time to post so much.) There remain many really interesting and thoughtful posters who contribute to debate, from all sides, and make me think. However, I'm pretty confident that there's been a notable increase over the last year in partisan point-scoring focusing on absolute trivia; it sort of mirrors the approach of a government in permanent campaigning, point-scoring mode, I guess. Far be it for me to suggest which side of the political spectrum most of the trivia comes from. And I'm not talking about the humorous posts, which are splendid - just the sort of fake news, attack the 'woke', gotcha posts.
Only a year? I've done a 3 stretch. Yes, there is perhaps a sense of PB.com BTL trending with the climate. There's a whiff of one party rule and triumphalism after the Johnson landslide and the realization that almost regardless of events, he and they can bank on 40% core support (and thus be hot favourites under FPTP) because they own the dominant English political identity of Leave. "Bliss it was in that dawn to be alive, but to be a Tory Leaver was very heaven". There's a lot of this sentiment and it fuels bumption. Ah well. Tides turn. Could do with that "onlylivingboy" poster back. Seem to have lost our midfield playmaker there.
Personally, I think it's important that we hear from the 32% from time to time.
It’s about jobs, meaningful jobs. And support from state services that allow all to live in dignity.
Rishi’s budget actually continues the austerity of the 2010s, and doesn’t really do anything for jobs with the exception of the corporate investment subsidy.
Keir does get this I think, if my scanning of his budget response is fair - but he hasn’t figured out how to communicate that properly to the public in a compelling way.
Austerity is not quite the word for a Conservative government whose expenditure is £850 bn, a huge proportion of which is borrowed, and vast sums of which are redistributed to less well off people.
Austerity to public services. Austerity in wage growth.
Private sector wages won't grow as long as employers have an effectively infinite labour pool to fish in. I am a senior software engineer and can tell you when you go job hunting the wages companies offer now are on par with the wages they offered in 2002 outside of a couple of very niche specialities.
It used to be if your company decided against payrises then you could get one by changing job. No longer true anymore at least in my role. Think on that....I currently earn the same amount as I did in 2002. So do most of my colleagues. Yet we are constantly being told there is a shortage of it workers.
The only people I know who work in the private sector that have seen payrises are all minimum wage workers due to minimum wage being uprated.
Brexit for many was a chance to cut down the size of the labour pool. It was remainer Rose after all that said we should remain in the eu else wages might rise
No, I disagree. The reason wages haven’t risen are a combination of -
Globalisation, including offshoring A bias toward capital and away from labour The flourishing of zero-contract gig workers Stalled productivity growth in corporate UK
As far as I am concerned, European immigration was actually a great boost for U.K. productivity and actually tended to increase wages for native born employees.
Well lets see, wages were rising steadily in my industry slightly above inflation till 2002-2003....I wonder what happened then?
Same as for plumbers, electricians. When supply is higher than demand price decrease . Supply of labour increased you can try and blame it on other stuff all you want but we had all that stuff when wages were increasing too.
You just don't like being told that FoM caused any problems. It undoubtedly did.
No; we didn’t have all that stuff. Sorry.
Sadly it is just anecdote versus anecdote.
I employ software developers. I have pretty much near-shored or off-shored all if now but I reserve U.K. for niche / high value specialism.
Like you say there is and always was a shortage of skilled developers, which does not fit your insinuation that flat wages are because of over-supply.
On topic, an interesting thread. I would never vote Labour, so my thoughts on this are not worth much, but the suggestions seem sensible.
I'm not sure about 4. though. Focusing on local issues hasn't done much for the LibDems at a national level, which is what counts in this country. And Labour is dedicated to the mass, uniform, national institutions like the NHS and is allergic to any talk about the postcode lottery, etc. It would lose too much of its client base in the public sector without necessarily gaining much support.
Labour's problems are amply demonstrated by its leader, a north London lawyer, getting it oh so wrong about levelling up yesterday. Put Darlington solidly in the blue column next time - and probably a raft of Red Wall seats too, if the Keir sneer is all they are going to get.
Starmer didn't sneer about Darlington at all. The full quote was on the last thread - did you read it? He was making a valid point that any government that was deadly serious about levelling up would be doing much more radical reform than was contained in yesterday's budget. I don't have a problem with what Sunak announced on Darlington and other measures (and nor does Starmer), and it's a start, but the structural reforms needed to really equalise power, wealth and influence across the regions will take a lot more genuinely redistributive measures than the Tories would countenance, I suspect. At the moment, the shifting of resources to the north seems to be mainly focused on securing marginal seats. Mind you, I'm not sure that the current Labour Party would countenance the sort of changes needed to move power away from London either.
Yes. Not to be po-faced but the standard of political debate is really heading south.
Yes, I've been posting on here for a year now. (Before that I lurked, but was too busy to post because I had to earn a living - god knows how some people on here who still work find the time to post so much.) There remain many really interesting and thoughtful posters who contribute to debate, from all sides, and make me think. However, I'm pretty confident that there's been a notable increase over the last year in partisan point-scoring focusing on absolute trivia; it sort of mirrors the approach of a government in permanent campaigning, point-scoring mode, I guess. Far be it for me to suggest which side of the political spectrum most of the trivia comes from. And I'm not talking about the humorous posts, which are splendid - just the sort of fake news, attack the 'woke', gotcha posts.
Only a year? I've done a 3 stretch. Yes, there is perhaps a sense of PB.com BTL trending with the climate. There's a whiff of one party rule and triumphalism after the Johnson landslide and the realization that almost regardless of events, he and they can bank on 40% core support (and thus be hot favourites under FPTP) because they own the dominant English political identity of Leave. "Bliss it was in that dawn to be alive, but to be a Tory Leaver was very heaven". There's a lot of this sentiment and it fuels bumption. Ah well. Tides turn. Could do with that "onlylivingboy" poster back. Seem to have lost our midfield playmaker there.
Personally, I think it's important that we hear from the 32% from time to time.
I've just managed to get away from work and chores and am just catching up.
The rolling average for the UK positive test rate is now 84.4 per 100k; I can't remember the exact value from yesterday but I think it was 89-point-something, so once again down about five over a 24-hour period. Again there are only two local authority areas with rates above 200 per 100k: this time it's Corby and NW Leics, rather than Leicester. Numbers are still reasonably low all over Wales and have cratered almost everywhere South of London. Things still look like they're headed in the right direction.
Come May, maybe even April, case numbers will be similar to last summer, and at least the most vulnerable half of the country will have had the vaccine, probably significantly more than that.
Yet the govt has given us not before dates placing restrictions on re-opening that will keep us closed 4-8 weeks longer than necessary. Their folly is the very definition of dates not data.
Labour's problems are amply demonstrated by its leader, a north London lawyer, getting it oh so wrong about levelling up yesterday. Put Darlington solidly in the blue column next time - and probably a raft of Red Wall seats too, if the Keir sneer is all they are going to get.
Starmer didn't sneer about Darlington at all. The full quote was on the last thread - did you read it? He was making a valid point that any government that was deadly serious about levelling up would be doing much more radical reform than was contained in yesterday's budget. I don't have a problem with what Sunak announced on Darlington and other measures (and nor does Starmer), and it's a start, but the structural reforms needed to really equalise power, wealth and influence across the regions will take a lot more genuinely redistributive measures than the Tories would countenance, I suspect. At the moment, the shifting of resources to the north seems to be mainly focused on securing marginal seats. Mind you, I'm not sure that the current Labour Party would countenance the sort of changes needed to move power away from London either.
Yes. Not to be po-faced but the standard of political debate is really heading south.
Yes, I've been posting on here for a year now. (Before that I lurked, but was too busy to post because I had to earn a living - god knows how some people on here who still work find the time to post so much.) There remain many really interesting and thoughtful posters who contribute to debate, from all sides, and make me think. However, I'm pretty confident that there's been a notable increase over the last year in partisan point-scoring focusing on absolute trivia; it sort of mirrors the approach of a government in permanent campaigning, point-scoring mode, I guess. Far be it for me to suggest which side of the political spectrum most of the trivia comes from. And I'm not talking about the humorous posts, which are splendid - just the sort of fake news, attack the 'woke', gotcha posts.
Only a year? I've done a 3 stretch. Yes, there is perhaps a sense of PB.com BTL trending with the climate. There's a whiff of one party rule and triumphalism after the Johnson landslide and the realization that almost regardless of events, he and they can bank on 40% core support (and thus be hot favourites under FPTP) because they own the dominant English political identity of Leave. "Bliss it was in that dawn to be alive, but to be a Tory Leaver was very heaven". There's a lot of this sentiment and it fuels bumption. Ah well. Tides turn. Could do with that "onlylivingboy" poster back. Seem to have lost our midfield playmaker there.
C'mon Kinabalu, you're better than that.
Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive,
It's an iambic bleedin' pentameter, innit?
Yes, I know that full well. But I'm dumbing down a bit so as not to appear sneery and out of touch with the bread & butter and the salt on the earth.
Looking ahead to the local elections, if you use that YouGov poll as the result (I know, but bear with me), then:
compared to 2016, the Conservatives would have a 1% swing from Labour and a 9% swing from the LibDems
compared to 2017, the Conservatives would have a 7% swing from Labour and a 12% swing from the LibDems
Both Sir Ed and Sir Keir may want to look away.
Of course, as more people get jabbed, as the country opens up, as Covid recedes by early May, these numbers may understate the Conservative lead....
2017 Locals
CON 38 LAB 27 LD 18
So where do you get your 7% swing LAB to CON
Or are you comparing the position after the absolute boy almost pulled back the massive lead in a month despite being shot in the back every day by his own side.
Labour's problems are amply demonstrated by its leader, a north London lawyer, getting it oh so wrong about levelling up yesterday. Put Darlington solidly in the blue column next time - and probably a raft of Red Wall seats too, if the Keir sneer is all they are going to get.
Starmer didn't sneer about Darlington at all. The full quote was on the last thread - did you read it? He was making a valid point that any government that was deadly serious about levelling up would be doing much more radical reform than was contained in yesterday's budget. I don't have a problem with what Sunak announced on Darlington and other measures (and nor does Starmer), and it's a start, but the structural reforms needed to really equalise power, wealth and influence across the regions will take a lot more genuinely redistributive measures than the Tories would countenance, I suspect. At the moment, the shifting of resources to the north seems to be mainly focused on securing marginal seats. Mind you, I'm not sure that the current Labour Party would countenance the sort of changes needed to move power away from London either.
Yes. Not to be po-faced but the standard of political debate is really heading south.
Yes, I've been posting on here for a year now. (Before that I lurked, but was too busy to post because I had to earn a living - god knows how some people on here who still work find the time to post so much.) There remain many really interesting and thoughtful posters who contribute to debate, from all sides, and make me think. However, I'm pretty confident that there's been a notable increase over the last year in partisan point-scoring focusing on absolute trivia; it sort of mirrors the approach of a government in permanent campaigning, point-scoring mode, I guess. Far be it for me to suggest which side of the political spectrum most of the trivia comes from. And I'm not talking about the humorous posts, which are splendid - just the sort of fake news, attack the 'woke', gotcha posts.
Only a year? I've done a 3 stretch. Yes, there is perhaps a sense of PB.com BTL trending with the climate. There's a whiff of one party rule and triumphalism after the Johnson landslide and the realization that almost regardless of events, he and they can bank on 40% core support (and thus be hot favourites under FPTP) because they own the dominant English political identity of Leave. "Bliss it was in that dawn to be alive, but to be a Tory Leaver was very heaven". There's a lot of this sentiment and it fuels bumption. Ah well. Tides turn. Could do with that "onlylivingboy" poster back. Seem to have lost our midfield playmaker there.
Personally, I think it's important that we hear from the 32% from time to time.
How gracious.
Thank you. Not too often, obviously, since we operate on First To Post The Post here.
Labour's problems are amply demonstrated by its leader, a north London lawyer, getting it oh so wrong about levelling up yesterday. Put Darlington solidly in the blue column next time - and probably a raft of Red Wall seats too, if the Keir sneer is all they are going to get.
Starmer didn't sneer about Darlington at all. The full quote was on the last thread - did you read it? He was making a valid point that any government that was deadly serious about levelling up would be doing much more radical reform than was contained in yesterday's budget. I don't have a problem with what Sunak announced on Darlington and other measures (and nor does Starmer), and it's a start, but the structural reforms needed to really equalise power, wealth and influence across the regions will take a lot more genuinely redistributive measures than the Tories would countenance, I suspect. At the moment, the shifting of resources to the north seems to be mainly focused on securing marginal seats. Mind you, I'm not sure that the current Labour Party would countenance the sort of changes needed to move power away from London either.
Yes. Not to be po-faced but the standard of political debate is really heading south.
Yes, I've been posting on here for a year now. (Before that I lurked, but was too busy to post because I had to earn a living - god knows how some people on here who still work find the time to post so much.) There remain many really interesting and thoughtful posters who contribute to debate, from all sides, and make me think. However, I'm pretty confident that there's been a notable increase over the last year in partisan point-scoring focusing on absolute trivia; it sort of mirrors the approach of a government in permanent campaigning, point-scoring mode, I guess. Far be it for me to suggest which side of the political spectrum most of the trivia comes from. And I'm not talking about the humorous posts, which are splendid - just the sort of fake news, attack the 'woke', gotcha posts.
Only a year? I've done a 3 stretch. Yes, there is perhaps a sense of PB.com BTL trending with the climate. There's a whiff of one party rule and triumphalism after the Johnson landslide and the realization that almost regardless of events, he and they can bank on 40% core support (and thus be hot favourites under FPTP) because they own the dominant English political identity of Leave. "Bliss it was in that dawn to be alive, but to be a Tory Leaver was very heaven". There's a lot of this sentiment and it fuels bumption. Ah well. Tides turn. Could do with that "onlylivingboy" poster back. Seem to have lost our midfield playmaker there.
I'm too old and out of touch - what are you using BTL to mean? Not buy to let surely?
The Author was part of the "under any other leader Labour would be 20% ahead" club on here.
The Author hated Corbyn so much he left joined the LDs tried to rejoin Lab and the went back to the LDs
SKS is failing miserably. I was in a Branch meeting last night where 90% of the participants thought he was a complete disaster.
Right Wing Labour have no decent policies, no idea of how to win, and will end up with a result in 2024 worse than 2017
In fact IMO Labour will not exceed the 40% achieved with a radical Agenda which inspired millions for a very long time or maybe never.
2017 was last chance saloon given 2019 was dominated by BREXIT and people like the Author and even Labours own staff were working against a win.
The way I see it - which you`re not going to like - is that the LP can only win a GE by keeping on board voters who though traditionally voted Labour for yonks (out of habit/family history/union instruction) are actually ideologically conservative. Now that the spell is broken, particularly in the Red Wall seats, I`m struggling to see how you get these voters back by trumpeting policies which don`t align with your former voters` beliefs.
I, a formerly loyal tory voter, am completely and utterly furious with the party I used to support. I've never been more angry with them.
Every other tory voter, every single one, and a few non-tories besides, appear on board.
Ah well, a week is a long time in politics.
I think the root of your ire is the departure from basing decisions on conservative principles and instead basing them on naked populism. Is that right? Out of interest did you support Brexit?
Yep Brexiteer but big Thatcherite through and through. Which tells you everything
It’s about jobs, meaningful jobs. And support from state services that allow all to live in dignity.
Rishi’s budget actually continues the austerity of the 2010s, and doesn’t really do anything for jobs with the exception of the corporate investment subsidy.
Keir does get this I think, if my scanning of his budget response is fair - but he hasn’t figured out how to communicate that properly to the public in a compelling way.
Austerity is not quite the word for a Conservative government whose expenditure is £850 bn, a huge proportion of which is borrowed, and vast sums of which are redistributed to less well off people.
Austerity to public services. Austerity in wage growth.
Private sector wages won't grow as long as employers have an effectively infinite labour pool to fish in. I am a senior software engineer and can tell you when you go job hunting the wages companies offer now are on par with the wages they offered in 2002 outside of a couple of very niche specialities.
It used to be if your company decided against payrises then you could get one by changing job. No longer true anymore at least in my role. Think on that....I currently earn the same amount as I did in 2002. So do most of my colleagues. Yet we are constantly being told there is a shortage of it workers.
The only people I know who work in the private sector that have seen payrises are all minimum wage workers due to minimum wage being uprated.
Brexit for many was a chance to cut down the size of the labour pool. It was remainer Rose after all that said we should remain in the eu else wages might rise
No, I disagree. The reason wages haven’t risen are a combination of -
Globalisation, including offshoring A bias toward capital and away from labour The flourishing of zero-contract gig workers Stalled productivity growth in corporate UK
As far as I am concerned, European immigration was actually a great boost for U.K. productivity and actually tended to increase wages for native born employees.
Well lets see, wages were rising steadily in my industry slightly above inflation till 2002-2003....I wonder what happened then?
Same as for plumbers, electricians. When supply is higher than demand price decrease . Supply of labour increased you can try and blame it on other stuff all you want but we had all that stuff when wages were increasing too.
You just don't like being told that FoM caused any problems. It undoubtedly did.
No; we didn’t have all that stuff. Sorry.
Sadly it is just anecdote versus anecdote.
I employ software developers. I have pretty much near-shored or off-shored all if now but I reserve U.K. for niche / high value specialism.
Like you say there is and always was a shortage of skilled developers, which does not fit your insinuation that flat wages are because of over-supply.
Off shoring and near shoring are part of the infinite pool of labour however so it backs what I said. You wanted the job done cheaper so you used the infinite pool.
There are many tasks that have to be done here however and that is where fom comes in because where they couldn't offshore or near shore they suddenly had a pool of eastern european developers that would move here and do the job cheaper. Yet you claim that has no effect on wages.....pull the other one
I, a formerly loyal tory voter, am completely and utterly furious with the party I used to support. I've never been more angry with them.
Every other tory voter, every single one, and a few non-tories besides, appear on board.
Ah well, a week is a long time in politics.
I think the root of your ire is the departure from basing decisions on conservative principles and instead basing them on naked populism. Is that right? Out of interest did you support Brexit?
Yep Brexiteer but big Thatcherite through and through. Which tells you everything
So you were happy with the populism that gave you Brexit but not the current populism?
Looking ahead to the local elections, if you use that YouGov poll as the result (I know, but bear with me), then:
compared to 2016, the Conservatives would have a 1% swing from Labour and a 9% swing from the LibDems
compared to 2017, the Conservatives would have a 7% swing from Labour and a 12% swing from the LibDems
Both Sir Ed and Sir Keir may want to look away.
Of course, as more people get jabbed, as the country opens up, as Covid recedes by early May, these numbers may understate the Conservative lead....
2017 Locals
CON 38 LAB 27 LD 18
So where do you get your 7% swing LAB to CON
Or are you comparing the position after the absolute boy almost pulled back the massive lead in a month despite being shot in the back every day by his own side.
Oops - swap those years around!
compared to 2016, the Conservatives would have a 7% swing from Labour and a 12% swing from the LibDems
compared to 2017, the Conservatives would have a 1% swing from Labour and a 9% swing from the LibDems
Labour's problems are amply demonstrated by its leader, a north London lawyer, getting it oh so wrong about levelling up yesterday. Put Darlington solidly in the blue column next time - and probably a raft of Red Wall seats too, if the Keir sneer is all they are going to get.
Starmer didn't sneer about Darlington at all. The full quote was on the last thread - did you read it? He was making a valid point that any government that was deadly serious about levelling up would be doing much more radical reform than was contained in yesterday's budget. I don't have a problem with what Sunak announced on Darlington and other measures (and nor does Starmer), and it's a start, but the structural reforms needed to really equalise power, wealth and influence across the regions will take a lot more genuinely redistributive measures than the Tories would countenance, I suspect. At the moment, the shifting of resources to the north seems to be mainly focused on securing marginal seats. Mind you, I'm not sure that the current Labour Party would countenance the sort of changes needed to move power away from London either.
Yes. Not to be po-faced but the standard of political debate is really heading south.
Yes, I've been posting on here for a year now. (Before that I lurked, but was too busy to post because I had to earn a living - god knows how some people on here who still work find the time to post so much.) There remain many really interesting and thoughtful posters who contribute to debate, from all sides, and make me think. However, I'm pretty confident that there's been a notable increase over the last year in partisan point-scoring focusing on absolute trivia; it sort of mirrors the approach of a government in permanent campaigning, point-scoring mode, I guess. Far be it for me to suggest which side of the political spectrum most of the trivia comes from. And I'm not talking about the humorous posts, which are splendid - just the sort of fake news, attack the 'woke', gotcha posts.
Only a year? I've done a 3 stretch. Yes, there is perhaps a sense of PB.com BTL trending with the climate. There's a whiff of one party rule and triumphalism after the Johnson landslide and the realization that almost regardless of events, he and they can bank on 40% core support (and thus be hot favourites under FPTP) because they own the dominant English political identity of Leave. "Bliss it was in that dawn to be alive, but to be a Tory Leaver was very heaven". There's a lot of this sentiment and it fuels bumption. Ah well. Tides turn. Could do with that "onlylivingboy" poster back. Seem to have lost our midfield playmaker there.
It's a cliche, but people often look invincible right up to the point they aren't. Things could change, and it's not like things looked as rosy for the Tories just a few months ago (though they were hardly terrible).
But it's hardly surprising their supporters have a spring in their step at present.
Looking ahead to the local elections, if you use that YouGov poll as the result (I know, but bear with me), then:
compared to 2016, the Conservatives would have a 1% swing from Labour and a 9% swing from the LibDems
compared to 2017, the Conservatives would have a 7% swing from Labour and a 12% swing from the LibDems
Both Sir Ed and Sir Keir may want to look away.
Of course, as more people get jabbed, as the country opens up, as Covid recedes by early May, these numbers may understate the Conservative lead....
2017 Locals
CON 38 LAB 27 LD 18
So where do you get your 7% swing LAB to CON
Or are you comparing the position after the absolute boy almost pulled back the massive lead in a month despite being shot in the back every day by his own side.
I think you credit the absolute boy with too much. It was May`s arrogance and opportunism in trying to destroy Labour which repulsed the electorate. (Plus Corbyn tried to bribe students with his wipe out the debt promise which was later retracted.)
Labour's problems are amply demonstrated by its leader, a north London lawyer, getting it oh so wrong about levelling up yesterday. Put Darlington solidly in the blue column next time - and probably a raft of Red Wall seats too, if the Keir sneer is all they are going to get.
Starmer didn't sneer about Darlington at all. The full quote was on the last thread - did you read it? He was making a valid point that any government that was deadly serious about levelling up would be doing much more radical reform than was contained in yesterday's budget. I don't have a problem with what Sunak announced on Darlington and other measures (and nor does Starmer), and it's a start, but the structural reforms needed to really equalise power, wealth and influence across the regions will take a lot more genuinely redistributive measures than the Tories would countenance, I suspect. At the moment, the shifting of resources to the north seems to be mainly focused on securing marginal seats. Mind you, I'm not sure that the current Labour Party would countenance the sort of changes needed to move power away from London either.
Yes. Not to be po-faced but the standard of political debate is really heading south.
Yes, I've been posting on here for a year now. (Before that I lurked, but was too busy to post because I had to earn a living - god knows how some people on here who still work find the time to post so much.) There remain many really interesting and thoughtful posters who contribute to debate, from all sides, and make me think. However, I'm pretty confident that there's been a notable increase over the last year in partisan point-scoring focusing on absolute trivia; it sort of mirrors the approach of a government in permanent campaigning, point-scoring mode, I guess. Far be it for me to suggest which side of the political spectrum most of the trivia comes from. And I'm not talking about the humorous posts, which are splendid - just the sort of fake news, attack the 'woke', gotcha posts.
Only a year? I've done a 3 stretch. Yes, there is perhaps a sense of PB.com BTL trending with the climate. There's a whiff of one party rule and triumphalism after the Johnson landslide and the realization that almost regardless of events, he and they can bank on 40% core support (and thus be hot favourites under FPTP) because they own the dominant English political identity of Leave. "Bliss it was in that dawn to be alive, but to be a Tory Leaver was very heaven". There's a lot of this sentiment and it fuels bumption. Ah well. Tides turn. Could do with that "onlylivingboy" poster back. Seem to have lost our midfield playmaker there.
Personally, I think it's important that we hear from the 32% from time to time.
6 Lib Dem parties. What a good idea
I think the current things that Mr Starmer needs to work on are:
1 - As said, working out the Lab Party in Scotland and Wales. But how does he stop them going native if he sets them free?
2 - The 25 year service which is plainly needed on devolution. They cocked it up; let them come forward with suggestions to create something better.
3 - Stealing back the levelling up agenda he thinks the Tories have nicked, plus all the other consultations. These are going to set the tone for the rest of the Parliament and determine who gets what at the next General Election, and he should be after the Tories' thunder.
I'd be saying get some good proposals, and submit them to the consultation publicly. Then he can either be claiming the credit, or excoriating the worse proposals that Rishi and Boris propose.
There are plenty of things on the national agenda (Social Care for one?) where there is an opportunity to work cross-party. Get on those, and be yourselves - not a contestant in the pygmy-party Anti-Tory competition.
I've just managed to get away from work and chores and am just catching up.
The rolling average for the UK positive test rate is now 84.4 per 100k; I can't remember the exact value from yesterday but I think it was 89-point-something, so once again down about five over a 24-hour period. Again there are only two local authority areas with rates above 200 per 100k: this time it's Corby and NW Leics, rather than Leicester. Numbers are still reasonably low all over Wales and have cratered almost everywhere South of London. Things still look like they're headed in the right direction.
Come May, maybe even April, case numbers will be similar to last summer, and at least the most vulnerable half of the country will have had the vaccine, probably significantly more than that.
Yet the govt has given us not before dates placing restrictions on re-opening that will keep us closed 4-8 weeks longer than necessary. Their folly is the very definition of dates not data.
I'm actually sympathetic to the notion that restrictions should be eased in stages, with enough time in between for things to go horribly wrong, if they're going to do so, before proceeding to the next step.
That said, if cases keep declining at the present rate then the Plague will have almost evaporated in much of the country and will be largely confined to residual pockets by Easter. Under those circumstances, sticking to another five week gap after we get the shops and gyms back on April 12th might prove a tough sell...
I've just managed to get away from work and chores and am just catching up.
The rolling average for the UK positive test rate is now 84.4 per 100k; I can't remember the exact value from yesterday but I think it was 89-point-something, so once again down about five over a 24-hour period. Again there are only two local authority areas with rates above 200 per 100k: this time it's Corby and NW Leics, rather than Leicester. Numbers are still reasonably low all over Wales and have cratered almost everywhere South of London. Things still look like they're headed in the right direction.
Come May, maybe even April, case numbers will be similar to last summer, and at least the most vulnerable half of the country will have had the vaccine, probably significantly more than that.
Yet the govt has given us not before dates placing restrictions on re-opening that will keep us closed 4-8 weeks longer than necessary. Their folly is the very definition of dates not data.
I'm actually sympathetic to the notion that restrictions should be eased in stages, with enough time in between for things to go horribly wrong, if they're going to do so, before proceeding to the next step.
That said, if cases keep declining at the present rate then the Plague will have almost evaporated in much of the country and will be largely confined to residual pockets by Easter. Under those circumstances, sticking to another five week gap after we get the shops and gyms back on April 12th might prove a tough sell...
It`s not only a tough sell - would it be legal? It would amount to constraint of liberties with no good reason.
Extraordinary. If the Tories were in opposition you'd say that was an excellent poll for them. All Labour can tell themselves is that the alchemist Boris won't be around for ever. Perhaps they might be able to make some inroads against his successor, whenever that will be.
No, no, no, Boris is just lucky. Everyone says so.😂
Good article RP but I have a feeling you may be writing something similar in 2024-5.
Expect Labour under Starmer to make modest gains at the next GE but it all feels a bit Ed Miliband to me, current prediction would be Con majority 40.
Problem really is just how badly Corbyn did in 2019 - absent a Blair or the Tories imploding spectacularly, it's not that hard for the Tories to do enough to cling on even if they have a bad time.
It’s about jobs, meaningful jobs. And support from state services that allow all to live in dignity.
Rishi’s budget actually continues the austerity of the 2010s, and doesn’t really do anything for jobs with the exception of the corporate investment subsidy.
Keir does get this I think, if my scanning of his budget response is fair - but he hasn’t figured out how to communicate that properly to the public in a compelling way.
Austerity is not quite the word for a Conservative government whose expenditure is £850 bn, a huge proportion of which is borrowed, and vast sums of which are redistributed to less well off people.
Austerity to public services. Austerity in wage growth.
Private sector wages won't grow as long as employers have an effectively infinite labour pool to fish in. I am a senior software engineer and can tell you when you go job hunting the wages companies offer now are on par with the wages they offered in 2002 outside of a couple of very niche specialities.
It used to be if your company decided against payrises then you could get one by changing job. No longer true anymore at least in my role. Think on that....I currently earn the same amount as I did in 2002. So do most of my colleagues. Yet we are constantly being told there is a shortage of it workers.
The only people I know who work in the private sector that have seen payrises are all minimum wage workers due to minimum wage being uprated.
Brexit for many was a chance to cut down the size of the labour pool. It was remainer Rose after all that said we should remain in the eu else wages might rise
No, I disagree. The reason wages haven’t risen are a combination of -
Globalisation, including offshoring A bias toward capital and away from labour The flourishing of zero-contract gig workers Stalled productivity growth in corporate UK
As far as I am concerned, European immigration was actually a great boost for U.K. productivity and actually tended to increase wages for native born employees.
Well lets see, wages were rising steadily in my industry slightly above inflation till 2002-2003....I wonder what happened then?
Same as for plumbers, electricians. When supply is higher than demand price decrease . Supply of labour increased you can try and blame it on other stuff all you want but we had all that stuff when wages were increasing too.
You just don't like being told that FoM caused any problems. It undoubtedly did.
No; we didn’t have all that stuff. Sorry.
Sadly it is just anecdote versus anecdote.
I employ software developers. I have pretty much near-shored or off-shored all if now but I reserve U.K. for niche / high value specialism.
Like you say there is and always was a shortage of skilled developers, which does not fit your insinuation that flat wages are because of over-supply.
Off shoring and near shoring are part of the infinite pool of labour however so it backs what I said. You wanted the job done cheaper so you used the infinite pool.
There are many tasks that have to be done here however and that is where fom comes in because where they couldn't offshore or near shore they suddenly had a pool of eastern european developers that would move here and do the job cheaper. Yet you claim that has no effect on wages.....pull the other one
No.
In my 20 years in digital, *skill availability* has always been more important than cost.
I've just managed to get away from work and chores and am just catching up.
The rolling average for the UK positive test rate is now 84.4 per 100k; I can't remember the exact value from yesterday but I think it was 89-point-something, so once again down about five over a 24-hour period. Again there are only two local authority areas with rates above 200 per 100k: this time it's Corby and NW Leics, rather than Leicester. Numbers are still reasonably low all over Wales and have cratered almost everywhere South of London. Things still look like they're headed in the right direction.
Come May, maybe even April, case numbers will be similar to last summer, and at least the most vulnerable half of the country will have had the vaccine, probably significantly more than that.
Yet the govt has given us not before dates placing restrictions on re-opening that will keep us closed 4-8 weeks longer than necessary. Their folly is the very definition of dates not data.
I'm actually sympathetic to the notion that restrictions should be eased in stages, with enough time in between for things to go horribly wrong, if they're going to do so, before proceeding to the next step.
That said, if cases keep declining at the present rate then the Plague will have almost evaporated in much of the country and will be largely confined to residual pockets by Easter. Under those circumstances, sticking to another five week gap after we get the shops and gyms back on April 12th might prove a tough sell...
It`s not only a tough sell - would it be legal? It would amount to constraint of liberties with no good reason.
Following on from that, I had a frustrating chat with my mother`s care home yesterday.
They said that they are "hoping" that normal visits can resume from 21 June. I said that in two weeks` time my mother and father (he still lives in their house) will both have received the second jabs so why can`t they meet up as normal then. They said that it isn`t just about their safety, the home must consider the safety of their staff and other residents. I said that 100% of staff and 100% of residents will also have been vaccinated with 2nd jab (they`ve had 100% takeup). They said, we can`t allow normal visits until the government says so. I said, what even when it is illogical and you are stopping man and wife from seeing each other in a meaningful way with no risk? They said yes but what about our insurance? We can`t allow visits until the insurance lets us.
I've just managed to get away from work and chores and am just catching up.
The rolling average for the UK positive test rate is now 84.4 per 100k; I can't remember the exact value from yesterday but I think it was 89-point-something, so once again down about five over a 24-hour period. Again there are only two local authority areas with rates above 200 per 100k: this time it's Corby and NW Leics, rather than Leicester. Numbers are still reasonably low all over Wales and have cratered almost everywhere South of London. Things still look like they're headed in the right direction.
Come May, maybe even April, case numbers will be similar to last summer, and at least the most vulnerable half of the country will have had the vaccine, probably significantly more than that.
Yet the govt has given us not before dates placing restrictions on re-opening that will keep us closed 4-8 weeks longer than necessary. Their folly is the very definition of dates not data.
I'm actually sympathetic to the notion that restrictions should be eased in stages, with enough time in between for things to go horribly wrong, if they're going to do so, before proceeding to the next step.
That said, if cases keep declining at the present rate then the Plague will have almost evaporated in much of the country and will be largely confined to residual pockets by Easter. Under those circumstances, sticking to another five week gap after we get the shops and gyms back on April 12th might prove a tough sell...
It`s not only a tough sell - would it be legal? It would amount to constraint of liberties with no good reason.
Firstly, that's debatable. Even if the courts could be invited to rule on the matter, the Government can wheel out SAGE to justify almost anything on public health grounds. Secondly, it's academic. By the time the case had trundled through the judicial system right the way up to the Supreme Court we'd be months into the future and, under such a case rate implosion scenario, already past the end of restrictions on June 21st.
Oh gawd, we are going to be stuck Boris for another 8 years aren't we.....
Probably only another six or seven. He could hand over to Sunak before the 2028 or 2029 election.
I know it is always said, but really, who would want to be the one taking over 18 years into power?
The centre-right were in power in France for 27 years between 1954 and 1981, and in Germany for 20 years between 1949 and 1969. They've held Germany for 15 years and seem to be ahead in the polling for the federal elections this year. In Japan they've been in power for 65 of the last 72 years.
It certainly gets harder after a long period, but if you can keep reinventing yourself, while your opponents keep making mistakes...
I've just managed to get away from work and chores and am just catching up.
The rolling average for the UK positive test rate is now 84.4 per 100k; I can't remember the exact value from yesterday but I think it was 89-point-something, so once again down about five over a 24-hour period. Again there are only two local authority areas with rates above 200 per 100k: this time it's Corby and NW Leics, rather than Leicester. Numbers are still reasonably low all over Wales and have cratered almost everywhere South of London. Things still look like they're headed in the right direction.
Come May, maybe even April, case numbers will be similar to last summer, and at least the most vulnerable half of the country will have had the vaccine, probably significantly more than that.
Yet the govt has given us not before dates placing restrictions on re-opening that will keep us closed 4-8 weeks longer than necessary. Their folly is the very definition of dates not data.
I'm actually sympathetic to the notion that restrictions should be eased in stages, with enough time in between for things to go horribly wrong, if they're going to do so, before proceeding to the next step.
That said, if cases keep declining at the present rate then the Plague will have almost evaporated in much of the country and will be largely confined to residual pockets by Easter. Under those circumstances, sticking to another five week gap after we get the shops and gyms back on April 12th might prove a tough sell...
It`s not only a tough sell - would it be legal? It would amount to constraint of liberties with no good reason.
Following on from that, I had a frustrating chat with my mother`s care home yesterday.
They said that they are "hoping" that normal visits can resume from 21 June. I said that in two weeks` time my mother and father (he still lives in their house) will both have received the second jabs so why can`t they meet up as normal then. They said that it isn`t just about their safety, the home must consider the safety of their staff and other residents. I said that 100% of staff and 100% of residents will also have been vaccinated with 2nd jab (they`ve had 100% takeup). They said, we can`t allow normal visits until the government says so. I said, what even when it is illogical and you are stopping man and wife from seeing each other in a meaningful way with no risk? They said yes but what about our insurance? We can`t allow visits until the insurance lets us.
Fuck fuck FUCK.
Very frustrating, but good news that your mum's CH has had 100% takeup of the vaccines.
It’s about jobs, meaningful jobs. And support from state services that allow all to live in dignity.
Rishi’s budget actually continues the austerity of the 2010s, and doesn’t really do anything for jobs with the exception of the corporate investment subsidy.
Keir does get this I think, if my scanning of his budget response is fair - but he hasn’t figured out how to communicate that properly to the public in a compelling way.
Austerity is not quite the word for a Conservative government whose expenditure is £850 bn, a huge proportion of which is borrowed, and vast sums of which are redistributed to less well off people.
Austerity to public services. Austerity in wage growth.
Private sector wages won't grow as long as employers have an effectively infinite labour pool to fish in. I am a senior software engineer and can tell you when you go job hunting the wages companies offer now are on par with the wages they offered in 2002 outside of a couple of very niche specialities.
It used to be if your company decided against payrises then you could get one by changing job. No longer true anymore at least in my role. Think on that....I currently earn the same amount as I did in 2002. So do most of my colleagues. Yet we are constantly being told there is a shortage of it workers.
The only people I know who work in the private sector that have seen payrises are all minimum wage workers due to minimum wage being uprated.
Brexit for many was a chance to cut down the size of the labour pool. It was remainer Rose after all that said we should remain in the eu else wages might rise
No, I disagree. The reason wages haven’t risen are a combination of -
Globalisation, including offshoring A bias toward capital and away from labour The flourishing of zero-contract gig workers Stalled productivity growth in corporate UK
As far as I am concerned, European immigration was actually a great boost for U.K. productivity and actually tended to increase wages for native born employees.
Well lets see, wages were rising steadily in my industry slightly above inflation till 2002-2003....I wonder what happened then?
Same as for plumbers, electricians. When supply is higher than demand price decrease . Supply of labour increased you can try and blame it on other stuff all you want but we had all that stuff when wages were increasing too.
You just don't like being told that FoM caused any problems. It undoubtedly did.
No; we didn’t have all that stuff. Sorry.
Sadly it is just anecdote versus anecdote.
I employ software developers. I have pretty much near-shored or off-shored all if now but I reserve U.K. for niche / high value specialism.
Like you say there is and always was a shortage of skilled developers, which does not fit your insinuation that flat wages are because of over-supply.
Off shoring and near shoring are part of the infinite pool of labour however so it backs what I said. You wanted the job done cheaper so you used the infinite pool.
There are many tasks that have to be done here however and that is where fom comes in because where they couldn't offshore or near shore they suddenly had a pool of eastern european developers that would move here and do the job cheaper. Yet you claim that has no effect on wages.....pull the other one
No.
In my 20 years in digital, *skill availability* has always been more important than cost.
Your mileage of course may vary.
My skills have been up to date in all the 30+ years as a software engineer. Used to be though you learnt new skills so you could apply for better paying jobs....now you learn new skills so you can tread water. The only people that have benefitted from the infinite labour force are employers.
I have no doubt if we didn't have minimum wage then jobs like retail and hospitality and cleaning would now be paying a little above the going rates in eastern europe.
You may have gained from FoM but the experience of a lot of those that voted brexit is that there is always enough people out there that will do the job cheaper that their wages don't rise.
I've just managed to get away from work and chores and am just catching up.
The rolling average for the UK positive test rate is now 84.4 per 100k; I can't remember the exact value from yesterday but I think it was 89-point-something, so once again down about five over a 24-hour period. Again there are only two local authority areas with rates above 200 per 100k: this time it's Corby and NW Leics, rather than Leicester. Numbers are still reasonably low all over Wales and have cratered almost everywhere South of London. Things still look like they're headed in the right direction.
Come May, maybe even April, case numbers will be similar to last summer, and at least the most vulnerable half of the country will have had the vaccine, probably significantly more than that.
Yet the govt has given us not before dates placing restrictions on re-opening that will keep us closed 4-8 weeks longer than necessary. Their folly is the very definition of dates not data.
I'm actually sympathetic to the notion that restrictions should be eased in stages, with enough time in between for things to go horribly wrong, if they're going to do so, before proceeding to the next step.
That said, if cases keep declining at the present rate then the Plague will have almost evaporated in much of the country and will be largely confined to residual pockets by Easter. Under those circumstances, sticking to another five week gap after we get the shops and gyms back on April 12th might prove a tough sell...
It`s not only a tough sell - would it be legal? It would amount to constraint of liberties with no good reason.
Following on from that, I had a frustrating chat with my mother`s care home yesterday.
They said that they are "hoping" that normal visits can resume from 21 June. I said that in two weeks` time my mother and father (he still lives in their house) will both have received the second jabs so why can`t they meet up as normal then. They said that it isn`t just about their safety, the home must consider the safety of their staff and other residents. I said that 100% of staff and 100% of residents will also have been vaccinated with 2nd jab (they`ve had 100% takeup). They said, we can`t allow normal visits until the government says so. I said, what even when it is illogical and you are stopping man and wife from seeing each other in a meaningful way with no risk? They said yes but what about our insurance? We can`t allow visits until the insurance lets us.
Fuck fuck FUCK.
Health and safety excesses, like the diversity industry, is what a real Conservative government should be routing.
I've just managed to get away from work and chores and am just catching up.
The rolling average for the UK positive test rate is now 84.4 per 100k; I can't remember the exact value from yesterday but I think it was 89-point-something, so once again down about five over a 24-hour period. Again there are only two local authority areas with rates above 200 per 100k: this time it's Corby and NW Leics, rather than Leicester. Numbers are still reasonably low all over Wales and have cratered almost everywhere South of London. Things still look like they're headed in the right direction.
Come May, maybe even April, case numbers will be similar to last summer, and at least the most vulnerable half of the country will have had the vaccine, probably significantly more than that.
Yet the govt has given us not before dates placing restrictions on re-opening that will keep us closed 4-8 weeks longer than necessary. Their folly is the very definition of dates not data.
I'm actually sympathetic to the notion that restrictions should be eased in stages, with enough time in between for things to go horribly wrong, if they're going to do so, before proceeding to the next step.
That said, if cases keep declining at the present rate then the Plague will have almost evaporated in much of the country and will be largely confined to residual pockets by Easter. Under those circumstances, sticking to another five week gap after we get the shops and gyms back on April 12th might prove a tough sell...
It`s not only a tough sell - would it be legal? It would amount to constraint of liberties with no good reason.
Following on from that, I had a frustrating chat with my mother`s care home yesterday.
They said that they are "hoping" that normal visits can resume from 21 June. I said that in two weeks` time my mother and father (he still lives in their house) will both have received the second jabs so why can`t they meet up as normal then. They said that it isn`t just about their safety, the home must consider the safety of their staff and other residents. I said that 100% of staff and 100% of residents will also have been vaccinated with 2nd jab (they`ve had 100% takeup). They said, we can`t allow normal visits until the government says so. I said, what even when it is illogical and you are stopping man and wife from seeing each other in a meaningful way with no risk? They said yes but what about our insurance? We can`t allow visits until the insurance lets us.
Fuck fuck FUCK.
I know, the care home situation is bloody dreadful. I'm actually relieved that none of my grandparents survived long enough to be forced to endure Covid.
Unfortunately, as you say, the care homes always have the "no vaccine is 100% effective" and "what about our insurance?" excuses in their back pockets. So it's one visitor only in ICU-grade PPE until the Summer.
OT Andrew Neil and his chums at Spectator TV on Youtube are wondering if Rishi is teeing up an early election. From 20 minutes in. www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZR3cScfV0v0
I, a formerly loyal tory voter, am completely and utterly furious with the party I used to support. I've never been more angry with them.
Every other tory voter, every single one, and a few non-tories besides, appear on board.
Ah well, a week is a long time in politics.
People like you @contrarian will be every bit as alienated as the hard left in Labour were when Blair was trying to decide which Middle Eastern country to bomb this week. They felt as if their party had been taken over by middle class smugs who gave far too much credence to Tory economic theory. You feel like your party has been taken over by a bunch of high spending, high taxing interventionists who don't seem to give a toss about the deficit or, for that matter, personal liberty.
The problem is that the great British public, god bless 'em, love it when a government steals the opposition's clothes and offers what seems to be a moderate compromise. They loved it for Blair and they love it with Boris. Most people think its "moderate" and "consensual" and lots of other wishy washy words.
This too will pass, but it just might take a while.
Good article RP but I have a feeling you may be writing something similar in 2024-5.
Expect Labour under Starmer to make modest gains at the next GE but it all feels a bit Ed Miliband to me, current prediction would be Con majority 40.
What is concerning for Labour is that Miliband scored pretty decent poll leads (certainly 10 per cent plus). There was a time when it really looked as though Labour not merely could win -- but would win -- in 2015. Of course, the poll leads fell away.
SKS has not yet scored any poll leads, he has an intractable & probably unsolvable problem with SLAB in Scotland and he does not look as though he has any interesting ideas, other than warmed-up hashes of 1997.
Of course, the Tories could royally fuck up -- but barring that, SKS really does not look as though he will beat them.
Labour should take a leaf out of Aussie Labor's book. Labor are ruthless. Time for a spill.
Actually, I like to think if we were still in the EU we would indeed have persuaded them to behave in a more reasonable way, so I suppose I agree with Layla Moran on this.
But the argument makes no sense when it was being argued, and I accept I was one of them, that the UK going it alone would end up with a worse outcome than the EU on this issue.
She was surely one of the people outraged about our lack of involvement in the EU scheme on the basis we would face a worse outcome, therefore if she did argue that, her reasoning was that the UK was worse at such negotiations.
Accordingly, how can it be subsequently argued to also believe we would have improved their response?
I've just managed to get away from work and chores and am just catching up.
The rolling average for the UK positive test rate is now 84.4 per 100k; I can't remember the exact value from yesterday but I think it was 89-point-something, so once again down about five over a 24-hour period. Again there are only two local authority areas with rates above 200 per 100k: this time it's Corby and NW Leics, rather than Leicester. Numbers are still reasonably low all over Wales and have cratered almost everywhere South of London. Things still look like they're headed in the right direction.
Come May, maybe even April, case numbers will be similar to last summer, and at least the most vulnerable half of the country will have had the vaccine, probably significantly more than that.
Yet the govt has given us not before dates placing restrictions on re-opening that will keep us closed 4-8 weeks longer than necessary. Their folly is the very definition of dates not data.
I'm actually sympathetic to the notion that restrictions should be eased in stages, with enough time in between for things to go horribly wrong, if they're going to do so, before proceeding to the next step.
That said, if cases keep declining at the present rate then the Plague will have almost evaporated in much of the country and will be largely confined to residual pockets by Easter. Under those circumstances, sticking to another five week gap after we get the shops and gyms back on April 12th might prove a tough sell...
It`s not only a tough sell - would it be legal? It would amount to constraint of liberties with no good reason.
Following on from that, I had a frustrating chat with my mother`s care home yesterday.
They said that they are "hoping" that normal visits can resume from 21 June. I said that in two weeks` time my mother and father (he still lives in their house) will both have received the second jabs so why can`t they meet up as normal then. They said that it isn`t just about their safety, the home must consider the safety of their staff and other residents. I said that 100% of staff and 100% of residents will also have been vaccinated with 2nd jab (they`ve had 100% takeup). They said, we can`t allow normal visits until the government says so. I said, what even when it is illogical and you are stopping man and wife from seeing each other in a meaningful way with no risk? They said yes but what about our insurance? We can`t allow visits until the insurance lets us.
Fuck fuck FUCK.
That does not sound right. From next Monday the government guidance is one named visitor per resident, potentially expanding to 2 visitors per resident from 12 April.
The Author was part of the "under any other leader Labour would be 20% ahead" club on here.
The Author hated Corbyn so much he left joined the LDs tried to rejoin Lab and the went back to the LDs
SKS is failing miserably. I was in a Branch meeting last night where 90% of the participants thought he was a complete disaster.
Right Wing Labour have no decent policies, no idea of how to win, and will end up with a result in 2024 worse than 2017
In fact IMO Labour will not exceed the 40% achieved with a radical Agenda which inspired millions for a very long time or maybe never.
2017 was last chance saloon given 2019 was dominated by BREXIT and people like the Author and even Labours own staff were working against a win.
The way I see it - which you`re not going to like - is that the LP can only win a GE by keeping on board voters who though traditionally voted Labour for yonks (out of habit/family history/union instruction) are actually ideologically conservative. Now that the spell is broken, particularly in the Red Wall seats, I`m struggling to see how you get these voters back by trumpeting policies which don`t align with your former voters` beliefs.
Yeah, but what is the point of voting for a Labour party that pretends to love Brexit, low taxes on companies, plays "fun with flags" and is best known for backing the government.
What is the point? I can't see it myself.
I think increasingly the Green Party looks tempting. I think they will do well, particularly in the London Assembly.
It’s about jobs, meaningful jobs. And support from state services that allow all to live in dignity.
Rishi’s budget actually continues the austerity of the 2010s, and doesn’t really do anything for jobs with the exception of the corporate investment subsidy.
Keir does get this I think, if my scanning of his budget response is fair - but he hasn’t figured out how to communicate that properly to the public in a compelling way.
Austerity is not quite the word for a Conservative government whose expenditure is £850 bn, a huge proportion of which is borrowed, and vast sums of which are redistributed to less well off people.
Austerity to public services. Austerity in wage growth.
Private sector wages won't grow as long as employers have an effectively infinite labour pool to fish in. I am a senior software engineer and can tell you when you go job hunting the wages companies offer now are on par with the wages they offered in 2002 outside of a couple of very niche specialities.
It used to be if your company decided against payrises then you could get one by changing job. No longer true anymore at least in my role. Think on that....I currently earn the same amount as I did in 2002. So do most of my colleagues. Yet we are constantly being told there is a shortage of it workers.
The only people I know who work in the private sector that have seen payrises are all minimum wage workers due to minimum wage being uprated.
Brexit for many was a chance to cut down the size of the labour pool. It was remainer Rose after all that said we should remain in the eu else wages might rise
No, I disagree. The reason wages haven’t risen are a combination of -
Globalisation, including offshoring A bias toward capital and away from labour The flourishing of zero-contract gig workers Stalled productivity growth in corporate UK
As far as I am concerned, European immigration was actually a great boost for U.K. productivity and actually tended to increase wages for native born employees.
Well lets see, wages were rising steadily in my industry slightly above inflation till 2002-2003....I wonder what happened then?
Same as for plumbers, electricians. When supply is higher than demand price decrease . Supply of labour increased you can try and blame it on other stuff all you want but we had all that stuff when wages were increasing too.
You just don't like being told that FoM caused any problems. It undoubtedly did.
No; we didn’t have all that stuff. Sorry.
Sadly it is just anecdote versus anecdote.
I employ software developers. I have pretty much near-shored or off-shored all if now but I reserve U.K. for niche / high value specialism.
Like you say there is and always was a shortage of skilled developers, which does not fit your insinuation that flat wages are because of over-supply.
Off shoring and near shoring are part of the infinite pool of labour however so it backs what I said. You wanted the job done cheaper so you used the infinite pool.
There are many tasks that have to be done here however and that is where fom comes in because where they couldn't offshore or near shore they suddenly had a pool of eastern european developers that would move here and do the job cheaper. Yet you claim that has no effect on wages.....pull the other one
No.
In my 20 years in digital, *skill availability* has always been more important than cost.
Your mileage of course may vary.
My skills have been up to date in all the 30+ years as a software engineer. Used to be though you learnt new skills so you could apply for better paying jobs....now you learn new skills so you can tread water. The only people that have benefitted from the infinite labour force are employers.
I have no doubt if we didn't have minimum wage then jobs like retail and hospitality and cleaning would now be paying a little above the going rates in eastern europe.
You may have gained from FoM but the experience of a lot of those that voted brexit is that there is always enough people out there that will do the job cheaper that their wages don't rise.
Sadly most people who voted Brexit were economically inactive, and seemed to have a very poor idea about how the modern economy work(ed).
Brexit was a massive leap backwards, and you are paying the cost in continued stagnant wages.
Good article RP but I have a feeling you may be writing something similar in 2024-5.
Expect Labour under Starmer to make modest gains at the next GE but it all feels a bit Ed Miliband to me, current prediction would be Con majority 40.
What is concerning for Labour is that Miliband scored pretty decent poll leads (certainly 10 per cent plus). There was a time when it really looked as though Labour not merely could win -- but would win -- in 2015. Of course, the poll leads fell away.
SKS has not yet scored any poll leads, he has an intractable & probably unsolvable problem with SLAB in Scotland and he does not look as though he has any interesting ideas, other than warmed-up hashes of 1997.
Of course, the Tories could royally fuck up -- but barring that, SKS really does not look as though he will beat them.
Labour should take a leaf out of Aussie Labor's book. Labor are ruthless. Time for a spill.
Not sure emulating the ruthlessness of Aussie politics is a good idea - after all, it worked for the Tories last time, but not the last time Labor did it.
Starmer did score a lead for the first time in September and had quite a few across October and November, but despite January being a horror show Covid-wise, wiki says that is the last time they had a lead. It is becoming a problem, as recent years have practically seen people forget that even oppositions that end up losing usually get some consistent leads.
I've just managed to get away from work and chores and am just catching up.
The rolling average for the UK positive test rate is now 84.4 per 100k; I can't remember the exact value from yesterday but I think it was 89-point-something, so once again down about five over a 24-hour period. Again there are only two local authority areas with rates above 200 per 100k: this time it's Corby and NW Leics, rather than Leicester. Numbers are still reasonably low all over Wales and have cratered almost everywhere South of London. Things still look like they're headed in the right direction.
Come May, maybe even April, case numbers will be similar to last summer, and at least the most vulnerable half of the country will have had the vaccine, probably significantly more than that.
Yet the govt has given us not before dates placing restrictions on re-opening that will keep us closed 4-8 weeks longer than necessary. Their folly is the very definition of dates not data.
I'm actually sympathetic to the notion that restrictions should be eased in stages, with enough time in between for things to go horribly wrong, if they're going to do so, before proceeding to the next step.
That said, if cases keep declining at the present rate then the Plague will have almost evaporated in much of the country and will be largely confined to residual pockets by Easter. Under those circumstances, sticking to another five week gap after we get the shops and gyms back on April 12th might prove a tough sell...
It`s not only a tough sell - would it be legal? It would amount to constraint of liberties with no good reason.
Following on from that, I had a frustrating chat with my mother`s care home yesterday.
They said that they are "hoping" that normal visits can resume from 21 June. I said that in two weeks` time my mother and father (he still lives in their house) will both have received the second jabs so why can`t they meet up as normal then. They said that it isn`t just about their safety, the home must consider the safety of their staff and other residents. I said that 100% of staff and 100% of residents will also have been vaccinated with 2nd jab (they`ve had 100% takeup). They said, we can`t allow normal visits until the government says so. I said, what even when it is illogical and you are stopping man and wife from seeing each other in a meaningful way with no risk? They said yes but what about our insurance? We can`t allow visits until the insurance lets us.
Fuck fuck FUCK.
Very frustrating, but good news that your mum's CH has had 100% takeup of the vaccines.
Not when they forget why people are being vaccinated in the first place.
OT Andrew Neil and his chums at Spectator TV on Youtube are wondering if Rishi is teeing up an early election. From 20 minutes in. www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZR3cScfV0v0
OT Andrew Neil and his chums at Spectator TV on Youtube are wondering if Rishi is teeing up an early election. From 20 minutes in. www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZR3cScfV0v0
FFS, no, no no. I know they and Labour agreed to repeal the FTPA which would make going early 'normal' again (not that it stopped them from happening), but serve out the bloody term for once.
It’s about jobs, meaningful jobs. And support from state services that allow all to live in dignity.
Rishi’s budget actually continues the austerity of the 2010s, and doesn’t really do anything for jobs with the exception of the corporate investment subsidy.
Keir does get this I think, if my scanning of his budget response is fair - but he hasn’t figured out how to communicate that properly to the public in a compelling way.
Austerity is not quite the word for a Conservative government whose expenditure is £850 bn, a huge proportion of which is borrowed, and vast sums of which are redistributed to less well off people.
Austerity to public services. Austerity in wage growth.
Private sector wages won't grow as long as employers have an effectively infinite labour pool to fish in. I am a senior software engineer and can tell you when you go job hunting the wages companies offer now are on par with the wages they offered in 2002 outside of a couple of very niche specialities.
It used to be if your company decided against payrises then you could get one by changing job. No longer true anymore at least in my role. Think on that....I currently earn the same amount as I did in 2002. So do most of my colleagues. Yet we are constantly being told there is a shortage of it workers.
The only people I know who work in the private sector that have seen payrises are all minimum wage workers due to minimum wage being uprated.
Brexit for many was a chance to cut down the size of the labour pool. It was remainer Rose after all that said we should remain in the eu else wages might rise
No, I disagree. The reason wages haven’t risen are a combination of -
Globalisation, including offshoring A bias toward capital and away from labour The flourishing of zero-contract gig workers Stalled productivity growth in corporate UK
As far as I am concerned, European immigration was actually a great boost for U.K. productivity and actually tended to increase wages for native born employees.
Well lets see, wages were rising steadily in my industry slightly above inflation till 2002-2003....I wonder what happened then?
Same as for plumbers, electricians. When supply is higher than demand price decrease . Supply of labour increased you can try and blame it on other stuff all you want but we had all that stuff when wages were increasing too.
You just don't like being told that FoM caused any problems. It undoubtedly did.
No; we didn’t have all that stuff. Sorry.
Sadly it is just anecdote versus anecdote.
I employ software developers. I have pretty much near-shored or off-shored all if now but I reserve U.K. for niche / high value specialism.
Like you say there is and always was a shortage of skilled developers, which does not fit your insinuation that flat wages are because of over-supply.
Off shoring and near shoring are part of the infinite pool of labour however so it backs what I said. You wanted the job done cheaper so you used the infinite pool.
There are many tasks that have to be done here however and that is where fom comes in because where they couldn't offshore or near shore they suddenly had a pool of eastern european developers that would move here and do the job cheaper. Yet you claim that has no effect on wages.....pull the other one
No.
In my 20 years in digital, *skill availability* has always been more important than cost.
Your mileage of course may vary.
My skills have been up to date in all the 30+ years as a software engineer. Used to be though you learnt new skills so you could apply for better paying jobs....now you learn new skills so you can tread water. The only people that have benefitted from the infinite labour force are employers.
I have no doubt if we didn't have minimum wage then jobs like retail and hospitality and cleaning would now be paying a little above the going rates in eastern europe.
You may have gained from FoM but the experience of a lot of those that voted brexit is that there is always enough people out there that will do the job cheaper that their wages don't rise.
Sadly most people who voted Brexit were economically inactive, and seemed to have a very poor idea about how the modern economy work(ed).
Brexit was a massive leap backwards, and you are paying the cost in continued stagnant wages.
Total bollocks were most economiclly inactive the vote to leave was high among c1,c2 as well as d and e. My wages were stagnant for the 14 years before the referendum so it has cost me precisely bugger all. However in those 14 years people like you have gleefully used your infinite labour pool to keep wages stagnant or in the case of people like electricians and plumbers drive them down. We are glad you are crying now should have thought what the consequences might be of doing that really
OT Andrew Neil and his chums at Spectator TV on Youtube are wondering if Rishi is teeing up an early election. From 20 minutes in. www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZR3cScfV0v0
FFS, no, no no. I know they and Labour agreed to repeal the FTPA which would make going early 'normal' again (not that it stopped them from happening), but serve out the bloody term for once.
Going early is kind of inevitable once the FTPA is repealed, unless you want another December election in 2024.
The question probably is going early with Spring 2024 or Spring 2023. Before 2023 would be ridiculous.
OT Andrew Neil and his chums at Spectator TV on Youtube are wondering if Rishi is teeing up an early election. From 20 minutes in. www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZR3cScfV0v0
Why do that before 2023 with an 80 seat majority?
Very hubristic to go early.
Hubristic or paranoid, worried that they cannot defend that 80 seat majority given one more year for people to think about the prospect of them staying in power.
It’s about jobs, meaningful jobs. And support from state services that allow all to live in dignity.
Rishi’s budget actually continues the austerity of the 2010s, and doesn’t really do anything for jobs with the exception of the corporate investment subsidy.
Keir does get this I think, if my scanning of his budget response is fair - but he hasn’t figured out how to communicate that properly to the public in a compelling way.
Austerity is not quite the word for a Conservative government whose expenditure is £850 bn, a huge proportion of which is borrowed, and vast sums of which are redistributed to less well off people.
Austerity to public services. Austerity in wage growth.
Private sector wages won't grow as long as employers have an effectively infinite labour pool to fish in. I am a senior software engineer and can tell you when you go job hunting the wages companies offer now are on par with the wages they offered in 2002 outside of a couple of very niche specialities.
It used to be if your company decided against payrises then you could get one by changing job. No longer true anymore at least in my role. Think on that....I currently earn the same amount as I did in 2002. So do most of my colleagues. Yet we are constantly being told there is a shortage of it workers.
The only people I know who work in the private sector that have seen payrises are all minimum wage workers due to minimum wage being uprated.
Brexit for many was a chance to cut down the size of the labour pool. It was remainer Rose after all that said we should remain in the eu else wages might rise
No, I disagree. The reason wages haven’t risen are a combination of -
Globalisation, including offshoring A bias toward capital and away from labour The flourishing of zero-contract gig workers Stalled productivity growth in corporate UK
As far as I am concerned, European immigration was actually a great boost for U.K. productivity and actually tended to increase wages for native born employees.
Well lets see, wages were rising steadily in my industry slightly above inflation till 2002-2003....I wonder what happened then?
Same as for plumbers, electricians. When supply is higher than demand price decrease . Supply of labour increased you can try and blame it on other stuff all you want but we had all that stuff when wages were increasing too.
You just don't like being told that FoM caused any problems. It undoubtedly did.
No; we didn’t have all that stuff. Sorry.
Sadly it is just anecdote versus anecdote.
I employ software developers. I have pretty much near-shored or off-shored all if now but I reserve U.K. for niche / high value specialism.
Like you say there is and always was a shortage of skilled developers, which does not fit your insinuation that flat wages are because of over-supply.
Off shoring and near shoring are part of the infinite pool of labour however so it backs what I said. You wanted the job done cheaper so you used the infinite pool.
There are many tasks that have to be done here however and that is where fom comes in because where they couldn't offshore or near shore they suddenly had a pool of eastern european developers that would move here and do the job cheaper. Yet you claim that has no effect on wages.....pull the other one
No.
In my 20 years in digital, *skill availability* has always been more important than cost.
Your mileage of course may vary.
My skills have been up to date in all the 30+ years as a software engineer. Used to be though you learnt new skills so you could apply for better paying jobs....now you learn new skills so you can tread water. The only people that have benefitted from the infinite labour force are employers.
I have no doubt if we didn't have minimum wage then jobs like retail and hospitality and cleaning would now be paying a little above the going rates in eastern europe.
You may have gained from FoM but the experience of a lot of those that voted brexit is that there is always enough people out there that will do the job cheaper that their wages don't rise.
Sadly most people who voted Brexit were economically inactive, and seemed to have a very poor idea about how the modern economy work(ed).
Brexit was a massive leap backwards, and you are paying the cost in continued stagnant wages.
Total bollocks were most economiclly inactive the vote to leave was high among c1,c2 as well as d and e. My wages were stagnant for the 14 years before the referendum so it has cost me precisely bugger all. However in those 14 years people like you have gleefully used your infinite labour pool to keep wages stagnant or in the case of people like electricians and plumbers drive them down. We are glad you are crying now should have thought what the consequences might be of doing that really
Presumably you will be happy to pay more for your weekly shop at Lidl?
I think the header is excellent and Labour should do all these things. But I think even if so, they would still be behind.
A lot of people like the Tories, that's just how it is. I can respect that unlike a lot of the nutters on Twitter.
Labours saving grace, at least to me, is obvious.
Ed Balls.
Now a well known media "celebrity" and actually quite well liked. He's shown himself to be human. Which negates a lot of what Boris has. Just sayin'
In the meantime, it would be good to re-build the SC. The talent is not great but why is Cooper not in there for instance?
Cooper is experienced but she's too...."headmistressy"...she always sounds and looks patronising, she appears like she's always explaining something to a five year-old.
And she has a trait common, almost universal in the PLP. The inability to...SMILE! They may be in opposition but for crying out loud.....why always so bloody serious? All of them- Dot Cotton licking piss off a nettle. Appear human!
Which is why Ed Balls is a slam-dunk. He's experienced and knowledgeable. He's well-known. And since his departure in 2015 has actually shown he has humour, a personality and is a nice guy. My view of him changed radically after he was ousted.
I don't know why I'm even suggesting this as it seems so obvious if you want Labour in power. I don't incidentally, so I'm not sure why I'm telling you this.
Is Labour more interested in debating political theory and abstract-concept, or do they want to run the country?
It’s about jobs, meaningful jobs. And support from state services that allow all to live in dignity.
Rishi’s budget actually continues the austerity of the 2010s, and doesn’t really do anything for jobs with the exception of the corporate investment subsidy.
Keir does get this I think, if my scanning of his budget response is fair - but he hasn’t figured out how to communicate that properly to the public in a compelling way.
Austerity is not quite the word for a Conservative government whose expenditure is £850 bn, a huge proportion of which is borrowed, and vast sums of which are redistributed to less well off people.
Austerity to public services. Austerity in wage growth.
Private sector wages won't grow as long as employers have an effectively infinite labour pool to fish in. I am a senior software engineer and can tell you when you go job hunting the wages companies offer now are on par with the wages they offered in 2002 outside of a couple of very niche specialities.
It used to be if your company decided against payrises then you could get one by changing job. No longer true anymore at least in my role. Think on that....I currently earn the same amount as I did in 2002. So do most of my colleagues. Yet we are constantly being told there is a shortage of it workers.
The only people I know who work in the private sector that have seen payrises are all minimum wage workers due to minimum wage being uprated.
Brexit for many was a chance to cut down the size of the labour pool. It was remainer Rose after all that said we should remain in the eu else wages might rise
No, I disagree. The reason wages haven’t risen are a combination of -
Globalisation, including offshoring A bias toward capital and away from labour The flourishing of zero-contract gig workers Stalled productivity growth in corporate UK
As far as I am concerned, European immigration was actually a great boost for U.K. productivity and actually tended to increase wages for native born employees.
Well lets see, wages were rising steadily in my industry slightly above inflation till 2002-2003....I wonder what happened then?
Same as for plumbers, electricians. When supply is higher than demand price decrease . Supply of labour increased you can try and blame it on other stuff all you want but we had all that stuff when wages were increasing too.
You just don't like being told that FoM caused any problems. It undoubtedly did.
No; we didn’t have all that stuff. Sorry.
Sadly it is just anecdote versus anecdote.
I employ software developers. I have pretty much near-shored or off-shored all if now but I reserve U.K. for niche / high value specialism.
Like you say there is and always was a shortage of skilled developers, which does not fit your insinuation that flat wages are because of over-supply.
Off shoring and near shoring are part of the infinite pool of labour however so it backs what I said. You wanted the job done cheaper so you used the infinite pool.
There are many tasks that have to be done here however and that is where fom comes in because where they couldn't offshore or near shore they suddenly had a pool of eastern european developers that would move here and do the job cheaper. Yet you claim that has no effect on wages.....pull the other one
No.
In my 20 years in digital, *skill availability* has always been more important than cost.
Your mileage of course may vary.
My skills have been up to date in all the 30+ years as a software engineer. Used to be though you learnt new skills so you could apply for better paying jobs....now you learn new skills so you can tread water. The only people that have benefitted from the infinite labour force are employers.
I have no doubt if we didn't have minimum wage then jobs like retail and hospitality and cleaning would now be paying a little above the going rates in eastern europe.
You may have gained from FoM but the experience of a lot of those that voted brexit is that there is always enough people out there that will do the job cheaper that their wages don't rise.
Sadly most people who voted Brexit were economically inactive, and seemed to have a very poor idea about how the modern economy work(ed).
Brexit was a massive leap backwards, and you are paying the cost in continued stagnant wages.
Total bollocks were most economiclly inactive the vote to leave was high among c1,c2 as well as d and e. My wages were stagnant for the 14 years before the referendum so it has cost me precisely bugger all. However in those 14 years people like you have gleefully used your infinite labour pool to keep wages stagnant or in the case of people like electricians and plumbers drive them down. We are glad you are crying now should have thought what the consequences might be of doing that really
It looks like your vote was basically jealousy and spite, or at least that how it comes across.
What Drakeford actually said was 'What we have to do – to quote a Conservative member of the Senedd, David Melding – is we have to recognise that the union as it is, is over. We have to create a new union'
I see that Rishi’s budget has unraveled already. A mix of wildly optimistic economic assumptions and spending figures that imply, for a majority of government departments, Austerity redux, and even then he only gets the deficit back to where it was.
Despite all his emphasis on being honest with people about the challenge ahead, he’s been dishonest, hiding the cuts that are implicit in his forward spending plans and ducking all the big decisions that should have been taken about the future financing of public services.
OT Andrew Neil and his chums at Spectator TV on Youtube are wondering if Rishi is teeing up an early election. From 20 minutes in. www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZR3cScfV0v0
FFS, no, no no. I know they and Labour agreed to repeal the FTPA which would make going early 'normal' again (not that it stopped them from happening), but serve out the bloody term for once.
Going early is kind of inevitable once the FTPA is repealed, unless you want another December election in 2024.
The question probably is going early with Spring 2024 or Spring 2023. Before 2023 would be ridiculous.
If they cannot handle a winter election then Spring 2024 is the absolute earliest they should contemplate,
The Author was part of the "under any other leader Labour would be 20% ahead" club on here.
The Author hated Corbyn so much he left joined the LDs tried to rejoin Lab and the went back to the LDs
SKS is failing miserably. I was in a Branch meeting last night where 90% of the participants thought he was a complete disaster.
Right Wing Labour have no decent policies, no idea of how to win, and will end up with a result in 2024 worse than 2017
In fact IMO Labour will not exceed the 40% achieved with a radical Agenda which inspired millions for a very long time or maybe never.
2017 was last chance saloon given 2019 was dominated by BREXIT and people like the Author and even Labours own staff were working against a win.
The author has a name. The joy of the hard left is their straw men. I have never pushed an "under any other leader Labour would be 20 points ahead line" - such landslides happen once every political blue moon.
I note that the respondent (if thats the game you want to play @bigjohnowls ) says "2017" and not "2019". Did the election of death not happen? In 2017 Labour lost because the Tories piled 2.3m more votes into the pot, a 20% increase in people afraid of Labour. When the governing party grows that many votes on top of a majority there is little the opposition can do.
I have witnessed Labour activists and former officials who are experts at electoral math and strategy spout similar false-fact bullshit like this, utterly consumed by the "stab in the back" nonsense that is the only excuse the hard left have for being so utterly hated.
Final point. The "radical agenda which inspired millions" was REJECTED by many more millions. Whatever Labour's route back to connection with voters is, go back to relive rampant failure can't be it.
What Drakeford actually said was 'What we have to do – to quote a Conservative member of the Senedd, David Melding – is we have to recognise that the union as it is, is over. We have to create a new union'
Unhelpful phrasing from MWP Melding. Causes unnecessary excitement.
Comments
Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive,
It's an iambic bleedin' pentameter, innit?
So, yes, the party has to deal with that, the empathy and tone, preferably without being patronizing and phony, but if patronizing and phony works, hell let's do it. But - and this for me is a big but - the actual policies rolled onto this more receptive pitch should be mainly about reducing the correlation between life prospects and birth circumstances, family affluence, your class, race, gender. There has to be an egalitarian spirit informing Labour's politics. If there isn't, I would still vote for them, that's a given, the worst Labour government is better in my eyes than the best Tory one, but I would no longer be enthused enough to stay a member.
Sunak is the most political chancellor since Gordon Brown.
eg
If MUsic BE the FOOD of LOVE, play ON
The Author was part of the "under any other leader Labour would be 20% ahead" club on here.
The Author hated Corbyn so much he left joined the LDs tried to rejoin Lab and the went back to the LDs
SKS is failing miserably. I was in a Branch meeting last night where 90% of the participants thought he was a complete disaster.
Right Wing Labour have no decent policies, no idea of how to win, and will end up with a result in 2024 worse than 2017
In fact IMO Labour will not exceed the 40% achieved with a radical Agenda which inspired millions for a very long time or maybe never.
2017 was last chance saloon given 2019 was dominated by BREXIT and people like the Author and even Labours own staff were working against a win.
Every other tory voter, every single one, and a few non-tories besides, appear on board.
Ah well, a week is a long time in politics.
I now identify as Maori.
The rolling average for the UK positive test rate is now 84.4 per 100k; I can't remember the exact value from yesterday but I think it was 89-point-something, so once again down about five over a 24-hour period. Again there are only two local authority areas with rates above 200 per 100k: this time it's Corby and NW Leics, rather than Leicester. Numbers are still reasonably low all over Wales and have cratered almost everywhere South of London. Things still look like they're headed in the right direction.
The rest of us are getting austerity in public services, and if we do actually anticipate salary growth it will be clawed away in taxation.
That’s if we have a job.
Unemployment is expected to rise to 7% by summer.
Same as for plumbers, electricians. When supply is higher than demand price decrease . Supply of labour increased you can try and blame it on other stuff all you want but we had all that stuff when wages were increasing too.
You just don't like being told that FoM caused any problems. It undoubtedly did.
Because being frank what would you do that could have kept the markets happy?
Which tribe? Ngati Pakeha?
I could actually support Labour if it was like what you aspire to.
Number one made me chuckle - it is both so bloody true and obvious and something I can't see changing
People who don't agree with Labour are bigots, racist and scum in the eyes of too many
Sadly it is just anecdote versus anecdote.
I employ software developers. I have pretty much near-shored or off-shored all if now but I reserve U.K. for niche / high value specialism.
Like you say there is and always was a shortage of skilled developers, which does not fit your insinuation that flat wages are because of over-supply.
I'm not sure about 4. though. Focusing on local issues hasn't done much for the LibDems at a national level, which is what counts in this country. And Labour is dedicated to the mass, uniform, national institutions like the NHS and is allergic to any talk about the postcode lottery, etc. It would lose too much of its client base in the public sector without necessarily gaining much support.
Yet the govt has given us not before dates placing restrictions on re-opening that will keep us closed 4-8 weeks longer than necessary. Their folly is the very definition of dates not data.
CON 38
LAB 27
LD 18
So where do you get your 7% swing LAB to CON
Or are you comparing the position after the absolute boy almost pulled back the massive lead in a month despite being shot in the back every day by his own side.
Us.
There are many tasks that have to be done here however and that is where fom comes in because where they couldn't offshore or near shore they suddenly had a pool of eastern european developers that would move here and do the job cheaper. Yet you claim that has no effect on wages.....pull the other one
compared to 2016, the Conservatives would have a 7% swing from Labour and a 12% swing from the LibDems
compared to 2017, the Conservatives would have a 1% swing from Labour and a 9% swing from the LibDems
But it's hardly surprising their supporters have a spring in their step at present.
Expect Labour under Starmer to make modest gains at the next GE but it all feels a bit Ed Miliband to me, current prediction would be Con majority 40.
A lot of people like the Tories, that's just how it is. I can respect that unlike a lot of the nutters on Twitter.
I think the current things that Mr Starmer needs to work on are:
1 - As said, working out the Lab Party in Scotland and Wales. But how does he stop them going native if he sets them free?
2 - The 25 year service which is plainly needed on devolution. They cocked it up; let them come forward with suggestions to create something better.
3 - Stealing back the levelling up agenda he thinks the Tories have nicked, plus all the other consultations. These are going to set the tone for the rest of the Parliament and determine who gets what at the next General Election, and he should be after the Tories' thunder.
I'd be saying get some good proposals, and submit them to the consultation publicly. Then he can either be claiming the credit, or excoriating the worse proposals that Rishi and Boris propose.
There are plenty of things on the national agenda (Social Care for one?) where there is an opportunity to work cross-party. Get on those, and be yourselves - not a contestant in the pygmy-party Anti-Tory competition.
That said, if cases keep declining at the present rate then the Plague will have almost evaporated in much of the country and will be largely confined to residual pockets by Easter. Under those circumstances, sticking to another five week gap after we get the shops and gyms back on April 12th might prove a tough sell...
In my 20 years in digital, *skill availability* has always been more important than cost.
Your mileage of course may vary.
They said that they are "hoping" that normal visits can resume from 21 June. I said that in two weeks` time my mother and father (he still lives in their house) will both have received the second jabs so why can`t they meet up as normal then. They said that it isn`t just about their safety, the home must consider the safety of their staff and other residents. I said that 100% of staff and 100% of residents will also have been vaccinated with 2nd jab (they`ve had 100% takeup). They said, we can`t allow normal visits until the government says so. I said, what even when it is illogical and you are stopping man and wife from seeing each other in a meaningful way with no risk? They said yes but what about our insurance? We can`t allow visits until the insurance lets us.
Fuck fuck FUCK.
Ed Balls.
Now a well known media "celebrity" and actually quite well liked. He's shown himself to be human. Which negates a lot of what Boris has. Just sayin'
It certainly gets harder after a long period, but if you can keep reinventing yourself, while your opponents keep making mistakes...
I have no doubt if we didn't have minimum wage then jobs like retail and hospitality and cleaning would now be paying a little above the going rates in eastern europe.
You may have gained from FoM but the experience of a lot of those that voted brexit is that there is always enough people out there that will do the job cheaper that their wages don't rise.
Unfortunately, as you say, the care homes always have the "no vaccine is 100% effective" and "what about our insurance?" excuses in their back pockets. So it's one visitor only in ICU-grade PPE until the Summer.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZR3cScfV0v0
The problem is that the great British public, god bless 'em, love it when a government steals the opposition's clothes and offers what seems to be a moderate compromise. They loved it for Blair and they love it with Boris. Most people think its "moderate" and "consensual" and lots of other wishy washy words.
This too will pass, but it just might take a while.
SKS has not yet scored any poll leads, he has an intractable & probably unsolvable problem with SLAB in Scotland and he does not look as though he has any interesting ideas, other than warmed-up hashes of 1997.
Of course, the Tories could royally fuck up -- but barring that, SKS really does not look as though he will beat them.
Labour should take a leaf out of Aussie Labor's book. Labor are ruthless. Time for a spill.
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/visiting-care-homes-during-coronavirus/update-on-policies-for-visiting-arrangements-in-care-homes
Hope that helps.
What is the point? I can't see it myself.
I think increasingly the Green Party looks tempting. I think they will do well, particularly in the London Assembly.
Brexit was a massive leap backwards, and you are paying the cost in continued stagnant wages.
https://twitter.com/RobDotHutton/status/1367545267327795207
Starmer did score a lead for the first time in September and had quite a few across October and November, but despite January being a horror show Covid-wise, wiki says that is the last time they had a lead. It is becoming a problem, as recent years have practically seen people forget that even oppositions that end up losing usually get some consistent leads.
She is excellent. Sad that she was ousted by pygmies.
Maybe she can make it the only two times Prime Minister who was born in Wales
Very hubristic to go early.
The question probably is going early with Spring 2024 or Spring 2023. Before 2023 would be ridiculous.
And she has a trait common, almost universal in the PLP. The inability to...SMILE! They may be in opposition but for crying out loud.....why always so bloody serious? All of them- Dot Cotton licking piss off a nettle. Appear human!
Which is why Ed Balls is a slam-dunk. He's experienced and knowledgeable. He's well-known. And since his departure in 2015 has actually shown he has humour, a personality and is a nice guy. My view of him changed radically after he was ousted.
I don't know why I'm even suggesting this as it seems so obvious if you want Labour in power. I don't incidentally, so I'm not sure why I'm telling you this.
Is Labour more interested in debating political theory and abstract-concept, or do they want to run the country?
Sad.
https://twitter.com/traquir/status/1367547457630920710?s=20
What Drakeford actually said was 'What we have to do – to quote a Conservative member of the Senedd, David Melding – is we have to recognise that the union as it is, is over. We have to create a new union'
Despite all his emphasis on being honest with people about the challenge ahead, he’s been dishonest, hiding the cuts that are implicit in his forward spending plans and ducking all the big decisions that should have been taken about the future financing of public services.
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1367530886141530117
I note that the respondent (if thats the game you want to play @bigjohnowls ) says "2017" and not "2019". Did the election of death not happen? In 2017 Labour lost because the Tories piled 2.3m more votes into the pot, a 20% increase in people afraid of Labour. When the governing party grows that many votes on top of a majority there is little the opposition can do.
I have witnessed Labour activists and former officials who are experts at electoral math and strategy spout similar false-fact bullshit like this, utterly consumed by the "stab in the back" nonsense that is the only excuse the hard left have for being so utterly hated.
Final point. The "radical agenda which inspired millions" was REJECTED by many more millions. Whatever Labour's route back to connection with voters is, go back to relive rampant failure can't be it.