Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check that the numbers would continue to fall.
"We all have to hit the pause button until then," he said. "But if, after schools go back, there isn't a big uptick then we're in a very different position and can think about opening up sooner rather than later.
Telegraph
The paper is reporting that the real world data is ahead of modelled expected outcomes by several weeks.
Hospitalisation data looked to match the prediction almost exactly.
There's a lag effect isn't there so hospitalisations will be prior cases, which will likely be pre-vaccine.
There's a major lag effect, there's 11k people in hospital right now and a significant percentage of them may die. But the number of them who may die who were vaccinated will be miniscule. Looking at deaths and hospital figures I think overestimates the risk for removing lockdown now, since people aren't going to suddenly become unvaccinated again.
The lag isn't that long!
Sure it is. 3 weeks for vaccine to take effect + 2 weeks to be hospitalised + 1 weeks in hospital before dying say. That's 6 weeks, takes us back to January.
On getting my AZ I was told 1 week for 70% effectiveness. I did wonder whether it was wise stating this as many may then feel safe after 1 week rather than waiting the full 3 weeks. The other discrepancy to the info given out prior to this was the 15 minute wait. It was only required if driving. Anyone else could leave immediately.
One of the (few) relevant questions being asked by bewildered Nats on Twitter is: why did she do it? Why even go near this? She was the anointed successor. A cool, clever politician, with a great future. Did she really fear Salmond's return to Edinburgh that much?
Seems she did fear him enough, it's the only plausible explanation. It's been clear for a while now that Nicola Sturgeon's one and only priority is to remain FM. Any threat to her position must be taken care of.
There may be a degree of envy in the fear. Sturgeon is by any measure a successful and capable politician, but she must know deep down she's no match for Alex Salmond, who even his enemies will admit is a political talent of exceptional quality.
I think it is much more likely that Sturgeon believed that what she was doing was "right".
That is, Sturgeon believed that Salmond was guilty of inappropriate behaviour tantamount to sexual harassment and that he should be called to account & convicted.
It just seems that what evidence there is does not support such a strong conclusion.
Leslie Evans is a strong feminist, as is Nicola Sturgeon. My guess is that Evans & Sturgeon convinced themselves that the evidence was there if they went looking for it.
It is a fine line between looking for evidence and entrapment, especially in cases like these where the evidence can be ambiguous & hard to get.
But all the latest evidence points towards conspiracy. And a cover-up. Which refutes your explanation
I still don't quite know why, however
I suspect Sturgeon, or she and her allies, saw a potentially genuine case against her rival Salmond, and righteously pursued - but also tried to exploit it for maximum political gain. But they then got badly caught out when the case failed, necessitating a deeper and deeper spiral into cover-up. As we see.
A cover-up which will damage them permanently, or finish them all
I don't think it refutes my explanation.
Evans & Sturgeon thought the evidence was there, and they -- I am not quite sure what the word is -- "encouraged" complainants to come forward.
They thought -- with the conviction of the righteous -- that they had a strong case. They did these things because they believed they were righting an injustice against women. This seems very plausible to me, especially with the impetus of MeToo.
The cover-up happened -- as cover-ups always do -- because lying is easy.
It is very easy to lie, if you think you can get away with it. You should know that. 😃
I am still not quite sure how all this is going to play out. I think Sturgeon could still turn this around with a great performance tomorrow, though she will obviously have to admit mistakes.
People like it when politicians are contrite and admit errors -- especially with some tears.
This is much, much more fascinating than Rishi and his dull budget -- the two most interesting & successful politicians in the UK fighting each other to the death. Like two samourai.
I think Salmond looks implacable. So one of them will finish the other off. I just don't know who will win.
I think telling they had only two I believe till late on and it then mushroomed to nine. Given they were all thrown out , Salmond had lots of witnesses , defence had none and fact that people say if you knew the names you know the reasons, hence why all the court orders supposedly. Looking at all the obfuscation , reluctance to provide papers and evidence whilst publicly saying they will give out all evidence. Reality is it is only coming out due to threat of them being chucked out by parliament. Fantastic as it seems everything points to something being far wrong with the whole thing, if you see the whatsapp messages , Evans sending the "we lost the battle but will win the war " text etc after judicial review collapsed, they expected to still get him. Murrel of course had SNP sending e-mails on fishing expeditions according to witness statements, the whatsapp group discussing their case etc etc , there is a lot of disparate information out there if you piece it all together. Even in the unlikely event that it started out with good intentions it went bad at some point. Hopefully one day we will see all the evidence and be able to make our own minds up.
There are so many things that are troubling about this. One is that the defence was apparently given a memory stick of material which was at least indicative of a conspiracy to collate evidence against Salmond but the application of the defence to be allowed to lead that evidence under s275 was refused. Now the fact that he was given that evidence is bringing s162 into play which prevents you from using material that is disclosed by the Crown for any other reason than your defence.
Did someone think this through? Was this always intended to prevent this material becoming public? Can we really think its ok for evidence of an apparent conspiracy to be redacted by the prosecution authorities and kept from public view rather than explored? It seems a weird position for the Crown to adopt and yet they have been very active in doing so as the various prosecutions, threats of prosecutions and complaints have demonstrated.
Whatever one views that the license view should be ended until it has been ended people who refuse to pay the license fee are cheating the system.The idea that 99% plus of people living in the UK are not in some way going to access BBC services is absurd.That PB users here who have stopped paying the license fee and are complaining about threatening letters - you deserve to get harassed by the GOVT.You are expecting other UK residents to pick up your BBC bill. I do not like the way the BBC is now run by woke activists, or its allocation of huge funds to cover Premier League football at the expense of other sports but i do use their services and BBC4 & BBC Parliamentary are excellent TV Channels whilst i listen to BBC radio in the car
The BBC are so shit that nowadays many people don't use their "services".
Incidentally you only need to pay for TV (or a bigger issue live TV of other suppliers), not for the car radio. That's the law.
I respect those who have cancelled their licence fee and if I didn't pay for Sky Sports I'd probably cancel mine, but I see no justification to pay for the BBC because I like the football and cricket on Sky - or because other people like using the radio.
The only things the bbc will broadcast this year I’m interested in are the Olympics, Euros and 6 episodes of Peaky Blinders. And they only have the rights to the first two because of state mandate. The latter will be available on iTunes for perhaps £15 at some point, if not free on Netflix. It depresses me that I’ll have to sign up for a license for the whole year to watch a bit of this summer’s sport.
Cancel your TV licence, and use the money to help out your local hospitality industry by watching the football in the pub!
Good point! To be honest I had forgotten pubs exist this early in the morning and this long into lockdown.
(I do not have a tv license, which is why it would irk me to get one this summer just for a few weeks).
Whatever one views that the license view should be ended until it has been ended people who refuse to pay the license fee are cheating the system.The idea that 99% plus of people living in the UK are not in some way going to access BBC services is absurd.That PB users here who have stopped paying the license fee and are complaining about threatening letters - you deserve to get harassed by the GOVT.You are expecting other UK residents to pick up your BBC bill. I do not like the way the BBC is now run by woke activists, or its allocation of huge funds to cover Premier League football at the expense of other sports but i do use their services and BBC4 & BBC Parliamentary are excellent TV Channels whilst i listen to BBC radio in the car
The BBC are so shit that nowadays many people don't use their "services".
Incidentally you only need to pay for TV (or a bigger issue live TV of other suppliers), not for the car radio. That's the law.
I respect those who have cancelled their licence fee and if I didn't pay for Sky Sports I'd probably cancel mine, but I see no justification to pay for the BBC because I like the football and cricket on Sky - or because other people like using the radio.
The only things the bbc will broadcast this year I’m interested in are the Olympics, Euros and 6 episodes of Peaky Blinders. And they only have the rights to the first two because of state mandate. The latter will be available on iTunes for perhaps £15 at some point, if not free on Netflix. It depresses me that I’ll have to sign up for a license for the whole year to watch a bit of this summer’s sport.
Cancel your TV licence, and use the money to help out your local hospitality industry by watching the football in the pub!
Good point! To be honest I had forgotten pubs exist this early in the morning and this long into lockdown.
(I do not have a tv license, which is why it would irk me to get one this summer just for a few weeks).
False economy.. in two weeks you would spend far more in the pub than on a year's license.
However it would be much more enjoyable and you would have got your money's worth.
Yes: I far rather watch a big game in a pub with a group of people I know than sat on my own at home, even if I have already paid for my license fee.
Quite a choice for Sturgeon to mull over her morning coffee: what to do today?
Tell the truth - and lose her job and the last shot at independence in decades
Lie - and lose her liberty and the last shot at independence in decades
Obfuscate and not remember - and lose her credibility and the last shot at independence in decades
Who'd be a politician, eh?
Sturgeon is a master politician and I think she's being underestimated by people on here today.
Does anyone think its a coincidence she's chosen Budget Day to be the day she gets her grilling?
Or the night before Budget Day to be the night the papers are released?
She'll obfuscate and not remember, wait for the Chancellor's speech to dominate the news, have very little publicity on this relative to what it deserves, then before long its old news, people close ranks and she glides on.
Except, she's now coming up against a paper trail that closes down that option. Sod the Budget, that's all been leaked - nobody is getting the popcorn in for that. Plenty of people are going to be watching her testimony very, very carefully - especially her coalition partners in the Greens. They aren't going ocean swimming in May tied to an anvil.
And remember - she's under oath.
Have they yet had the Salmond Solcitor material is one thing I would like to know. Rabbits, hats and so on.
Whatever one views that the license view should be ended until it has been ended people who refuse to pay the license fee are cheating the system.The idea that 99% plus of people living in the UK are not in some way going to access BBC services is absurd.That PB users here who have stopped paying the license fee and are complaining about threatening letters - you deserve to get harassed by the GOVT.You are expecting other UK residents to pick up your BBC bill. I do not like the way the BBC is now run by woke activists, or its allocation of huge funds to cover Premier League football at the expense of other sports but i do use their services and BBC4 & BBC Parliamentary are excellent TV Channels whilst i listen to BBC radio in the car
The BBC are so shit that nowadays many people don't use their "services".
Incidentally you only need to pay for TV (or a bigger issue live TV of other suppliers), not for the car radio. That's the law.
I respect those who have cancelled their licence fee and if I didn't pay for Sky Sports I'd probably cancel mine, but I see no justification to pay for the BBC because I like the football and cricket on Sky - or because other people like using the radio.
The only things the bbc will broadcast this year I’m interested in are the Olympics, Euros and 6 episodes of Peaky Blinders. And they only have the rights to the first two because of state mandate. The latter will be available on iTunes for perhaps £15 at some point, if not free on Netflix. It depresses me that I’ll have to sign up for a license for the whole year to watch a bit of this summer’s sport.
Cancel your TV licence, and use the money to help out your local hospitality industry by watching the football in the pub!
Good point! To be honest I had forgotten pubs exist this early in the morning and this long into lockdown.
(I do not have a tv license, which is why it would irk me to get one this summer just for a few weeks).
Whatever one views that the license view should be ended until it has been ended people who refuse to pay the license fee are cheating the system.The idea that 99% plus of people living in the UK are not in some way going to access BBC services is absurd.That PB users here who have stopped paying the license fee and are complaining about threatening letters - you deserve to get harassed by the GOVT.You are expecting other UK residents to pick up your BBC bill. I do not like the way the BBC is now run by woke activists, or its allocation of huge funds to cover Premier League football at the expense of other sports but i do use their services and BBC4 & BBC Parliamentary are excellent TV Channels whilst i listen to BBC radio in the car
The BBC are so shit that nowadays many people don't use their "services".
Incidentally you only need to pay for TV (or a bigger issue live TV of other suppliers), not for the car radio. That's the law.
I respect those who have cancelled their licence fee and if I didn't pay for Sky Sports I'd probably cancel mine, but I see no justification to pay for the BBC because I like the football and cricket on Sky - or because other people like using the radio.
The only things the bbc will broadcast this year I’m interested in are the Olympics, Euros and 6 episodes of Peaky Blinders. And they only have the rights to the first two because of state mandate. The latter will be available on iTunes for perhaps £15 at some point, if not free on Netflix. It depresses me that I’ll have to sign up for a license for the whole year to watch a bit of this summer’s sport.
Cancel your TV licence, and use the money to help out your local hospitality industry by watching the football in the pub!
Good point! To be honest I had forgotten pubs exist this early in the morning and this long into lockdown.
(I do not have a tv license, which is why it would irk me to get one this summer just for a few weeks).
False economy.. in two weeks you would spend far more in the pub than on a year's license.
However it would be much more enjoyable and you would have got your money's worth.
Yes: I far rather watch a big game in a pub with a group of people I know than sat on my own at home, even if I have already paid for my license fee.
I was merely pointing out the financial consequences of the suggested course of action. Enjoyment had nothing to do with it....
Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check that the numbers would continue to fall.
"We all have to hit the pause button until then," he said. "But if, after schools go back, there isn't a big uptick then we're in a very different position and can think about opening up sooner rather than later.
Telegraph
The paper is reporting that the real world data is ahead of modelled expected outcomes by several weeks.
Hospitalisation data looked to match the prediction almost exactly.
There's a lag effect isn't there so hospitalisations will be prior cases, which will likely be pre-vaccine.
There's a major lag effect, there's 11k people in hospital right now and a significant percentage of them may die. But the number of them who may die who were vaccinated will be miniscule. Looking at deaths and hospital figures I think overestimates the risk for removing lockdown now, since people aren't going to suddenly become unvaccinated again.
I still stand by my prediction that we won't reach the 30K extra deaths by summer, Deaths are plummeting - I just don't see where they will come from, unless opening up infects huge numbers of still unvaccinated people. We didn't see this last spring summer (without the vaccinated and with less previously infected), so should see an easier time ahead, and not too far ahead at that...
Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check that the numbers would continue to fall.
"We all have to hit the pause button until then," he said. "But if, after schools go back, there isn't a big uptick then we're in a very different position and can think about opening up sooner rather than later.
Telegraph
The paper is reporting that the real world data is ahead of modelled expected outcomes by several weeks.
That seems a very reasonable suggestion. If numbers continue to fall with schools open then that would be very good news, I expect they will as the vaccine effect will be reducing R by ever increasing numbers.
I got my text a few minutes ago, I'm negative for the virus. Feeling fully better from whatever it was that hit me on Sunday now, whether it be a mild case that wasn't detected or something else.
I think if you did the swab correctly, then the high sensitivity of PCR would have picked up the virus. Is it possible just the stress did you in? A worrying time.
Just watch it for a few weeks, they are not going to know. They send threatening letters to try and frighten people but they have no clue you are watching a TV and if they come to your house tell them to F off and get a search warrant.
I don't want to be a spoilsport, but this crosses the line from sturdy libertarianism to actually urging someone to break the law, which I don't think you should do, especially on someone else's website.
So what`s your prediction Malcy? Will the nippy one still be leader in, say, 12 months? Give us some odds.
At best she will limp through the election, will be miracle, if she sacrifices all around her , Evans , her husband and a few others. Her goose is cooked and she will be gone , she was desperate to get a UN job as some kind of Women's ambassador for the World or such like. Will Evans go quietly , assume a huge swag of cash and monster pension will suit her.
Whatever one views that the license view should be ended until it has been ended people who refuse to pay the license fee are cheating the system.The idea that 99% plus of people living in the UK are not in some way going to access BBC services is absurd.That PB users here who have stopped paying the license fee and are complaining about threatening letters - you deserve to get harassed by the GOVT.You are expecting other UK residents to pick up your BBC bill. I do not like the way the BBC is now run by woke activists, or its allocation of huge funds to cover Premier League football at the expense of other sports but i do use their services and BBC4 & BBC Parliamentary are excellent TV Channels whilst i listen to BBC radio in the car
The BBC are so shit that nowadays many people don't use their "services".
Incidentally you only need to pay for TV (or a bigger issue live TV of other suppliers), not for the car radio. That's the law.
I respect those who have cancelled their licence fee and if I didn't pay for Sky Sports I'd probably cancel mine, but I see no justification to pay for the BBC because I like the football and cricket on Sky - or because other people like using the radio.
The only things the bbc will broadcast this year I’m interested in are the Olympics, Euros and 6 episodes of Peaky Blinders. And they only have the rights to the first two because of state mandate. The latter will be available on iTunes for perhaps £15 at some point, if not free on Netflix. It depresses me that I’ll have to sign up for a license for the whole year to watch a bit of this summer’s sport.
Cancel your TV licence, and use the money to help out your local hospitality industry by watching the football in the pub!
Good point! To be honest I had forgotten pubs exist this early in the morning and this long into lockdown.
(I do not have a tv license, which is why it would irk me to get one this summer just for a few weeks).
Whatever one views that the license view should be ended until it has been ended people who refuse to pay the license fee are cheating the system.The idea that 99% plus of people living in the UK are not in some way going to access BBC services is absurd.That PB users here who have stopped paying the license fee and are complaining about threatening letters - you deserve to get harassed by the GOVT.You are expecting other UK residents to pick up your BBC bill. I do not like the way the BBC is now run by woke activists, or its allocation of huge funds to cover Premier League football at the expense of other sports but i do use their services and BBC4 & BBC Parliamentary are excellent TV Channels whilst i listen to BBC radio in the car
The BBC are so shit that nowadays many people don't use their "services".
Incidentally you only need to pay for TV (or a bigger issue live TV of other suppliers), not for the car radio. That's the law.
I respect those who have cancelled their licence fee and if I didn't pay for Sky Sports I'd probably cancel mine, but I see no justification to pay for the BBC because I like the football and cricket on Sky - or because other people like using the radio.
The only things the bbc will broadcast this year I’m interested in are the Olympics, Euros and 6 episodes of Peaky Blinders. And they only have the rights to the first two because of state mandate. The latter will be available on iTunes for perhaps £15 at some point, if not free on Netflix. It depresses me that I’ll have to sign up for a license for the whole year to watch a bit of this summer’s sport.
Cancel your TV licence, and use the money to help out your local hospitality industry by watching the football in the pub!
Good point! To be honest I had forgotten pubs exist this early in the morning and this long into lockdown.
(I do not have a tv license, which is why it would irk me to get one this summer just for a few weeks).
False economy.. in two weeks you would spend far more in the pub than on a year's license.
However it would be much more enjoyable and you would have got your money's worth.
Yes: I far rather watch a big game in a pub with a group of people I know than sat on my own at home, even if I have already paid for my license fee.
Just watch it for a few weeks, they are not going to know. They send threatening letters to try and frighten people but they have no clue you are watching a TV and if they come to your house tell them to F off and get a search warrant.
I don't want to be a spoilsport, but this crosses the line from sturdy libertarianism to actually urging someone to break the law, which I don't think you should do, especially on someone else's website.
As they say, the Law is an Ass. You are welcome to your opinion.
PS: I was hardly urging him to break the law, it was a suggestion of how it could be done, no idea how you came to that conclusion. I have no hold over him or a gun to his head, pretty pathetic in fact.
As this is allegedly a website focussed on wagering the outcomes of political events does anyone want to give some tips on Scottish politics after today?
Depressingly, I've just worked out how much I've paid in rent for my box room in East London. Accounting for inflation, it's roughly twice the deposit my grandfather paid in 1965 for a suburban 4 bedroom house.
Living in the non-posh bits of London used to be quite cheap until about 1986, from what I've read. That was the year the capital suddenly became fashionable again, after about 15 years on the slide.
It didn't happen suddenly, but it really didn't stop for a long time.
eg Candy Brothers' first project was a one bed flat in Fulham in 1995 bought for £122k.
Here (Mansfield / Bolsover area), trad terraces were 25-30k ish in 1990, pretty flat until 2000, doubled by 2004-5 with most of that in the 18 months 2003-4, then fell back again by 2/3 of that rise, and are now up to something like 70-90k.
Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check that the numbers would continue to fall.
"We all have to hit the pause button until then," he said. "But if, after schools go back, there isn't a big uptick then we're in a very different position and can think about opening up sooner rather than later.
Telegraph
The paper is reporting that the real world data is ahead of modelled expected outcomes by several weeks.
That seems a very reasonable suggestion. If numbers continue to fall with schools open then that would be very good news, I expect they will as the vaccine effect will be reducing R by ever increasing numbers.
I got my text a few minutes ago, I'm negative for the virus. Feeling fully better from whatever it was that hit me on Sunday now, whether it be a mild case that wasn't detected or something else.
Do you suffer from allergies at all? My wife does and she said last weekend was quite bad for pollen etc.
Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check that the numbers would continue to fall.
"We all have to hit the pause button until then," he said. "But if, after schools go back, there isn't a big uptick then we're in a very different position and can think about opening up sooner rather than later.
Telegraph
The paper is reporting that the real world data is ahead of modelled expected outcomes by several weeks.
Hospitalisation data looked to match the prediction almost exactly.
There's a lag effect isn't there so hospitalisations will be prior cases, which will likely be pre-vaccine.
There's a major lag effect, there's 11k people in hospital right now and a significant percentage of them may die. But the number of them who may die who were vaccinated will be miniscule. Looking at deaths and hospital figures I think overestimates the risk for removing lockdown now, since people aren't going to suddenly become unvaccinated again.
The lag isn't that long!
Sure it is. 3 weeks for vaccine to take effect + 2 weeks to be hospitalised + 1 weeks in hospital before dying say. That's 6 weeks, takes us back to January.
But the hospitalisation data refers to people who caught it maybe a week or so ago, pre-vaccine has nothing to do with it. And the projection was made more than a month ago. It was a prediction of future events when it was made.
I was talking about deaths and the 11k in hospital. The hospitalisations have cratered and are nothing like the 11k, the 11k are mainly pre-vaccination legacy.
As for hospitalisations, almost all of them will be pre-vaccine too. 1 week to get hospitalised + 3 weeks for vaccines to take effect still takes us back to start of February.
The US needs to get Chuck Norris to do a vaccine PSA and leverage Facebook into using one of its algorithms to send it to every Republican on the platform. Won’t happen of course but it’s that type of approach they should be taking.
Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check that the numbers would continue to fall.
"We all have to hit the pause button until then," he said. "But if, after schools go back, there isn't a big uptick then we're in a very different position and can think about opening up sooner rather than later.
Telegraph
The paper is reporting that the real world data is ahead of modelled expected outcomes by several weeks.
That seems a very reasonable suggestion. If numbers continue to fall with schools open then that would be very good news, I expect they will as the vaccine effect will be reducing R by ever increasing numbers.
I got my text a few minutes ago, I'm negative for the virus. Feeling fully better from whatever it was that hit me on Sunday now, whether it be a mild case that wasn't detected or something else.
Do you suffer from allergies at all? My wife does and she said last weekend was quite bad for pollen etc.
I used to as a child get affected by it quite significantly, but haven't in decades that I know about. Could have been that I guess?
I think it was probably all in my head, playing on my mind knowing my wife had it. Brain does funny things to you.
The US needs to get Chuck Norris to do a vaccine PSA and leverage Facebook into using one of its algorithms to send it to every Republican on the platform. Won’t happen of course but it’s that type of approach they should be taking.
Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check that the numbers would continue to fall.
"We all have to hit the pause button until then," he said. "But if, after schools go back, there isn't a big uptick then we're in a very different position and can think about opening up sooner rather than later.
Telegraph
The paper is reporting that the real world data is ahead of modelled expected outcomes by several weeks.
That seems a very reasonable suggestion. If numbers continue to fall with schools open then that would be very good news, I expect they will as the vaccine effect will be reducing R by ever increasing numbers.
I got my text a few minutes ago, I'm negative for the virus. Feeling fully better from whatever it was that hit me on Sunday now, whether it be a mild case that wasn't detected or something else.
Do you suffer from allergies at all? My wife does and she said last weekend was quite bad for pollen etc.
I used to as a child get affected by it quite significantly, but haven't in decades that I know about. Could have been that I guess?
Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check that the numbers would continue to fall.
"We all have to hit the pause button until then," he said. "But if, after schools go back, there isn't a big uptick then we're in a very different position and can think about opening up sooner rather than later.
Telegraph
The paper is reporting that the real world data is ahead of modelled expected outcomes by several weeks.
That seems a very reasonable suggestion. If numbers continue to fall with schools open then that would be very good news, I expect they will as the vaccine effect will be reducing R by ever increasing numbers.
I got my text a few minutes ago, I'm negative for the virus. Feeling fully better from whatever it was that hit me on Sunday now, whether it be a mild case that wasn't detected or something else.
Do you suffer from allergies at all? My wife does and she said last weekend was quite bad for pollen etc.
I used to as a child get affected by it quite significantly, but haven't in decades that I know about. Could have been that I guess?
Main thing is you’re okay.
Hear hear. It’s good news. Hope Mrs Thompson is also improving.
Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check that the numbers would continue to fall.
"We all have to hit the pause button until then," he said. "But if, after schools go back, there isn't a big uptick then we're in a very different position and can think about opening up sooner rather than later.
Telegraph
The paper is reporting that the real world data is ahead of modelled expected outcomes by several weeks.
Hospitalisation data looked to match the prediction almost exactly.
There's a lag effect isn't there so hospitalisations will be prior cases, which will likely be pre-vaccine.
There's a major lag effect, there's 11k people in hospital right now and a significant percentage of them may die. But the number of them who may die who were vaccinated will be miniscule. Looking at deaths and hospital figures I think overestimates the risk for removing lockdown now, since people aren't going to suddenly become unvaccinated again.
The lag isn't that long!
Sure it is. 3 weeks for vaccine to take effect + 2 weeks to be hospitalised + 1 weeks in hospital before dying say. That's 6 weeks, takes us back to January.
On getting my AZ I was told 1 week for 70% effectiveness. I did wonder whether it was wise stating this as many may then feel safe after 1 week rather than waiting the full 3 weeks. The other discrepancy to the info given out prior to this was the 15 minute wait. It was only required if driving. Anyone else could leave immediately.
I think the 15 minutes is a bigger deal for Pfizer due to the (exceedingly rare) risk of anaphylaxis.
As this is allegedly a website focussed on wagering the outcomes of political events does anyone want to give some tips on Scottish politics after today?
Keep an eye on the low profile currently kept by Cantabrigensian Wee Free Kate Forbes. Too young to have a past. Gaelic speaker. Wrong university from Scots point of view. Traditional social outlook. The perfect person for a reset.
Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check that the numbers would continue to fall.
"We all have to hit the pause button until then," he said. "But if, after schools go back, there isn't a big uptick then we're in a very different position and can think about opening up sooner rather than later.
Telegraph
The paper is reporting that the real world data is ahead of modelled expected outcomes by several weeks.
Hospitalisation data looked to match the prediction almost exactly.
There's a lag effect isn't there so hospitalisations will be prior cases, which will likely be pre-vaccine.
There's a major lag effect, there's 11k people in hospital right now and a significant percentage of them may die. But the number of them who may die who were vaccinated will be miniscule. Looking at deaths and hospital figures I think overestimates the risk for removing lockdown now, since people aren't going to suddenly become unvaccinated again.
The lag isn't that long!
Sure it is. 3 weeks for vaccine to take effect + 2 weeks to be hospitalised + 1 weeks in hospital before dying say. That's 6 weeks, takes us back to January.
But the hospitalisation data refers to people who caught it maybe a week or so ago, pre-vaccine has nothing to do with it. And the projection was made more than a month ago. It was a prediction of future events when it was made.
I was talking about deaths and the 11k in hospital. The hospitalisations have cratered and are nothing like the 11k, the 11k are mainly pre-vaccination legacy.
As for hospitalisations, almost all of them will be pre-vaccine too. 1 week to get hospitalised + 3 weeks for vaccines to take effect still takes us back to start of February.
Without checking, it all went pear-shaped about a week to 10 days after schools went back in September, didn't it? So what we're looking for is the situation about 15th March plus? If if it's OK then, then we are are bound the edge of the wood, if not quite out of it.
Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check that the numbers would continue to fall.
"We all have to hit the pause button until then," he said. "But if, after schools go back, there isn't a big uptick then we're in a very different position and can think about opening up sooner rather than later.
Telegraph
The paper is reporting that the real world data is ahead of modelled expected outcomes by several weeks.
That seems a very reasonable suggestion. If numbers continue to fall with schools open then that would be very good news, I expect they will as the vaccine effect will be reducing R by ever increasing numbers.
I got my text a few minutes ago, I'm negative for the virus. Feeling fully better from whatever it was that hit me on Sunday now, whether it be a mild case that wasn't detected or something else.
Do you suffer from allergies at all? My wife does and she said last weekend was quite bad for pollen etc.
I used to as a child get affected by it quite significantly, but haven't in decades that I know about. Could have been that I guess?
Main thing is you’re okay.
Hear hear. It’s good news. Hope Mrs Thompson is also improving.
Thanks she's fine. Was very, very sleepy over the weekend, that's the only effect she's had. Bounced back straight away.
Vaccine did its job IMO. She still got infected but got no major symptoms, just tired, bounced back immediately and didn't pass it on to anyone.
As this is allegedly a website focussed on wagering the outcomes of political events does anyone want to give some tips on Scottish politics after today?
You would need a crystal ball, only thing for sure is SNP will have most seats regardless.
Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check that the numbers would continue to fall.
"We all have to hit the pause button until then," he said. "But if, after schools go back, there isn't a big uptick then we're in a very different position and can think about opening up sooner rather than later.
Telegraph
The paper is reporting that the real world data is ahead of modelled expected outcomes by several weeks.
That seems a very reasonable suggestion. If numbers continue to fall with schools open then that would be very good news, I expect they will as the vaccine effect will be reducing R by ever increasing numbers.
I got my text a few minutes ago, I'm negative for the virus. Feeling fully better from whatever it was that hit me on Sunday now, whether it be a mild case that wasn't detected or something else.
Do you suffer from allergies at all? My wife does and she said last weekend was quite bad for pollen etc.
I used to as a child get affected by it quite significantly, but haven't in decades that I know about. Could have been that I guess?
Main thing is you’re okay.
Hear hear. It’s good news. Hope Mrs Thompson is also improving.
Thanks she's fine. Was very, very sleepy over the weekend, that's the only effect she's had. Bounced back straight away.
Vaccine did its job IMO. She still got infected but got no major symptoms, just tired, bounced back immediately and didn't pass it on to anyone.
Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check that the numbers would continue to fall.
"We all have to hit the pause button until then," he said. "But if, after schools go back, there isn't a big uptick then we're in a very different position and can think about opening up sooner rather than later.
Telegraph
The paper is reporting that the real world data is ahead of modelled expected outcomes by several weeks.
Hospitalisation data looked to match the prediction almost exactly.
There's a lag effect isn't there so hospitalisations will be prior cases, which will likely be pre-vaccine.
There's a major lag effect, there's 11k people in hospital right now and a significant percentage of them may die. But the number of them who may die who were vaccinated will be miniscule. Looking at deaths and hospital figures I think overestimates the risk for removing lockdown now, since people aren't going to suddenly become unvaccinated again.
The lag isn't that long!
Sure it is. 3 weeks for vaccine to take effect + 2 weeks to be hospitalised + 1 weeks in hospital before dying say. That's 6 weeks, takes us back to January.
But the hospitalisation data refers to people who caught it maybe a week or so ago, pre-vaccine has nothing to do with it. And the projection was made more than a month ago. It was a prediction of future events when it was made.
I was talking about deaths and the 11k in hospital. The hospitalisations have cratered and are nothing like the 11k, the 11k are mainly pre-vaccination legacy.
As for hospitalisations, almost all of them will be pre-vaccine too. 1 week to get hospitalised + 3 weeks for vaccines to take effect still takes us back to start of February.
Without checking, it all went pear-shaped about a week to 10 days after schools went back in September, didn't it? So what we're looking for is the situation about 15th March plus? If if it's OK then, then we are are bound the edge of the wood, if not quite out of it.
Yes not only were pubs and restaurants open for months by September but the schools were also straight after August holidays and lots of travel to Spain etc - reopening schools now isn't like for like with September.
Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check that the numbers would continue to fall.
"We all have to hit the pause button until then," he said. "But if, after schools go back, there isn't a big uptick then we're in a very different position and can think about opening up sooner rather than later.
Telegraph
The paper is reporting that the real world data is ahead of modelled expected outcomes by several weeks.
That seems a very reasonable suggestion. If numbers continue to fall with schools open then that would be very good news, I expect they will as the vaccine effect will be reducing R by ever increasing numbers.
I got my text a few minutes ago, I'm negative for the virus. Feeling fully better from whatever it was that hit me on Sunday now, whether it be a mild case that wasn't detected or something else.
Depressingly, I've just worked out how much I've paid in rent for my box room in East London. Accounting for inflation, it's roughly twice the deposit my grandfather paid in 1965 for a suburban 4 bedroom house.
Living in the non-posh bits of London used to be quite cheap until about 1986, from what I've read. That was the year the capital suddenly became fashionable again, after about 15 years on the slide.
It didn't happen suddenly imo, but it really didn't stop for a long time. I think the real boost was the Blair/Brown period.
I was offered a one bed modest 400 sqft flat in a 1870s brick block in the quiet part of the City (just into Hackney) behind Wesley's Chapel for about 100k (70k but would need 15k extend lease + 15k to refurb) in very late 1990s. Called Victoria Chambers - I always thought it was a Victorian slum clearance -> workers flats project. All the streets are named after apostles.
Current rents are approx £1500-1600 per month, whilst I paid £650. Which demonstrates the collapse of yields in London by more than half.
That is a decent rep of London prices with the Financial Crash smoothed out, for a very modest basic flat 5 minutes from Finsbury Square.
By comparison, in a part of the Red Wall I know well, trad terraces were 25-30k ish in 1990, pretty flat until 2000, doubled by 2004-5 with most of that in the 18 months 2003-4, then fell back again by 2/3 of that rise, and are now up to something like 70-90k depending.
Candy Brothers first project was a one bed flat bought in 1995 in Fulham for £122k. Refurbed and sold for £170k.
I think the interesting political question regarding the SNP internecine war is why? Why did Sturgeon turn on Salmond? For those that believe Salmond's accusation of conspiracy is again why? Why would she, and those around her think that conspiracy, if that was what it was, was worth the risk? I may have missed it also, but is Salmond suing his accusers? If they are simply conspirators then perhaps he should do this? One of the women has gone on record and said it is not credulous that 8 (or 9?) women would put themselves through such an ordeal to get at a politician (think this was reported in the Sun?)? If it is a conspiracy to lock up an innocent man it is one of the greatest scandals ever seen on these islands. Hopefully the truth will out.
Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check that the numbers would continue to fall.
"We all have to hit the pause button until then," he said. "But if, after schools go back, there isn't a big uptick then we're in a very different position and can think about opening up sooner rather than later.
Telegraph
The paper is reporting that the real world data is ahead of modelled expected outcomes by several weeks.
Hospitalisation data looked to match the prediction almost exactly.
There's a lag effect isn't there so hospitalisations will be prior cases, which will likely be pre-vaccine.
There's a major lag effect, there's 11k people in hospital right now and a significant percentage of them may die. But the number of them who may die who were vaccinated will be miniscule. Looking at deaths and hospital figures I think overestimates the risk for removing lockdown now, since people aren't going to suddenly become unvaccinated again.
The lag isn't that long!
Sure it is. 3 weeks for vaccine to take effect + 2 weeks to be hospitalised + 1 weeks in hospital before dying say. That's 6 weeks, takes us back to January.
On getting my AZ I was told 1 week for 70% effectiveness. I did wonder whether it was wise stating this as many may then feel safe after 1 week rather than waiting the full 3 weeks. The other discrepancy to the info given out prior to this was the 15 minute wait. It was only required if driving. Anyone else could leave immediately.
I think the 15 minutes is a bigger deal for Pfizer due to the (exceedingly rare) risk of anaphylaxis.
As this is allegedly a website focussed on wagering the outcomes of political events does anyone want to give some tips on Scottish politics after today?
Keep an eye on the low profile currently kept by Cantabrigensian Wee Free Kate Forbes. Too young to have a past. Gaelic speaker. Wrong university from Scots point of view. Traditional social outlook. The perfect person for a reset.
I think the interesting political question regarding the SNP internecine war is why? Why did Sturgeon turn on Salmond? For those that believe Salmond's accusation of conspiracy is again why? Why would she, and those around her think that conspiracy, if that was what it was, was worth the risk? I may have missed it also, but is Salmond suing his accusers? If they are simply conspirators then perhaps he should do this? One of the women has gone on record and said it is not credulous that 8 (or 9?) women would put themselves through such an ordeal to get at a politician (think this was reported in the Sun?)? If it is a conspiracy to lock up an innocent man it is one of the greatest scandals ever seen on these islands. Hopefully the truth will out.
I agree it all sounds surreal but the truth needs to come out
Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check that the numbers would continue to fall.
"We all have to hit the pause button until then," he said. "But if, after schools go back, there isn't a big uptick then we're in a very different position and can think about opening up sooner rather than later.
Telegraph
The paper is reporting that the real world data is ahead of modelled expected outcomes by several weeks.
Hospitalisation data looked to match the prediction almost exactly.
There's a lag effect isn't there so hospitalisations will be prior cases, which will likely be pre-vaccine.
There's a major lag effect, there's 11k people in hospital right now and a significant percentage of them may die. But the number of them who may die who were vaccinated will be miniscule. Looking at deaths and hospital figures I think overestimates the risk for removing lockdown now, since people aren't going to suddenly become unvaccinated again.
The lag isn't that long!
Sure it is. 3 weeks for vaccine to take effect + 2 weeks to be hospitalised + 1 weeks in hospital before dying say. That's 6 weeks, takes us back to January.
But the hospitalisation data refers to people who caught it maybe a week or so ago, pre-vaccine has nothing to do with it. And the projection was made more than a month ago. It was a prediction of future events when it was made.
I was talking about deaths and the 11k in hospital. The hospitalisations have cratered and are nothing like the 11k, the 11k are mainly pre-vaccination legacy.
As for hospitalisations, almost all of them will be pre-vaccine too. 1 week to get hospitalised + 3 weeks for vaccines to take effect still takes us back to start of February.
Without checking, it all went pear-shaped about a week to 10 days after schools went back in September, didn't it? So what we're looking for is the situation about 15th March plus? If if it's OK then, then we are are bound the edge of the wood, if not quite out of it.
I think it was a perfect storm of schools, then Unis, combined with many, many imports of virus from (mainly) Spain, seeding the nation just as in Feb/March. And of course it took time to really manifest. The tricky point is going to be not panicking if cases go up, but hospitalisations and deaths keep falling. Will be a test of nerve.
The good news for Nicola is if her political career does come crashing down, she can retire to her house in [SUPER INJUNCTION] with her [SI] friend from the [SI] [SI] and relax
As this is allegedly a website focussed on wagering the outcomes of political events does anyone want to give some tips on Scottish politics after today?
Keep an eye on the low profile currently kept by Cantabrigensian Wee Free Kate Forbes. Too young to have a past. Gaelic speaker. Wrong university from Scots point of view. Traditional social outlook. The perfect person for a reset.
Except she has all the chippiness, and all the sense of humour (ie, none) of Ms Sturgeon. Not much of a reset, TBH.
However given the utter lack of credible alternatives, she may be unavoidable.
As this is allegedly a website focussed on wagering the outcomes of political events does anyone want to give some tips on Scottish politics after today?
You would need a crystal ball, only thing for sure is SNP will have most seats regardless.
The SNP are still polling well north of their 2016 share and the tories have replaced Right Wing Ruth with the duty manager from the Edinburgh airport JD Sports so it's well possible the SNP will increase their number of seats.
Labour: fuck knows but eBay Armando Ianucci is progress compared to Kezia.
Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check that the numbers would continue to fall.
"We all have to hit the pause button until then," he said. "But if, after schools go back, there isn't a big uptick then we're in a very different position and can think about opening up sooner rather than later.
Telegraph
The paper is reporting that the real world data is ahead of modelled expected outcomes by several weeks.
Hospitalisation data looked to match the prediction almost exactly.
There's a lag effect isn't there so hospitalisations will be prior cases, which will likely be pre-vaccine.
There's a major lag effect, there's 11k people in hospital right now and a significant percentage of them may die. But the number of them who may die who were vaccinated will be miniscule. Looking at deaths and hospital figures I think overestimates the risk for removing lockdown now, since people aren't going to suddenly become unvaccinated again.
The lag isn't that long!
Sure it is. 3 weeks for vaccine to take effect + 2 weeks to be hospitalised + 1 weeks in hospital before dying say. That's 6 weeks, takes us back to January.
But the hospitalisation data refers to people who caught it maybe a week or so ago, pre-vaccine has nothing to do with it. And the projection was made more than a month ago. It was a prediction of future events when it was made.
I was talking about deaths and the 11k in hospital. The hospitalisations have cratered and are nothing like the 11k, the 11k are mainly pre-vaccination legacy.
As for hospitalisations, almost all of them will be pre-vaccine too. 1 week to get hospitalised + 3 weeks for vaccines to take effect still takes us back to start of February.
Without checking, it all went pear-shaped about a week to 10 days after schools went back in September, didn't it? So what we're looking for is the situation about 15th March plus? If if it's OK then, then we are are bound the edge of the wood, if not quite out of it.
Cases were rising sharply before then, from the end of August (even over the cockups surrounding schools, international travel last summer was a genuine disaster and the worst mistake of the whole pandemic) but they skyrocketed about the middle of September as unis went back - particularly unis.
That may of course have been due to the greater number of tests being carried out, but the fact that the trend continued to rise with only minimal interruptions until the October half term despite drastic control measures in HE, and then declined only slightly as the rest of the country was locked down, is suggestive. Especially since six weeks after the decision was finally made to close schools, cases have dropped off a cliff even among groups that are not yet vaccinated.
At least, it is to me. I could of course be completely wrong and it was caused by goblins, or lizard people, or lockdown breakers. But schools seem the likeliest vector of transmission, and it is also incidentally suggestive that case rates in schools - where we are told they should be lower - closely mirrored those in the wider community.
Hopefully, however, the vaccine rollout means even when (please note 'when,' for the reasons @Fysics_Teacher describes) cases go up, hospitalisations won't. I taught a great many children who were carrying the disease as confirmed by testing, but I can only think of one who showed any symptoms at all. And even that one wasn't very ill. If that is the case across the board, then obviously the government can be a lot bolder in opening up.
Anyway, teaching beckons. Enjoy Sturgeon's testimony and see you after the budget.
So what`s your prediction Malcy? Will the nippy one still be leader in, say, 12 months? Give us some odds.
At best she will limp through the election, will be miracle, if she sacrifices all around her , Evans , her husband and a few others. Her goose is cooked and she will be gone , she was desperate to get a UN job as some kind of Women's ambassador for the World or such like. Will Evans go quietly , assume a huge swag of cash and monster pension will suit her.
The US needs to get Chuck Norris to do a vaccine PSA and leverage Facebook into using one of its algorithms to send it to every Republican on the platform. Won’t happen of course but it’s that type of approach they should be taking.
Clint Eastwood, Chuck Norris, Bruce Willis and maybe a deepfake John Wayne.
Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check that the numbers would continue to fall.
"We all have to hit the pause button until then," he said. "But if, after schools go back, there isn't a big uptick then we're in a very different position and can think about opening up sooner rather than later.
Telegraph
The paper is reporting that the real world data is ahead of modelled expected outcomes by several weeks.
Hospitalisation data looked to match the prediction almost exactly.
There's a lag effect isn't there so hospitalisations will be prior cases, which will likely be pre-vaccine.
There's a major lag effect, there's 11k people in hospital right now and a significant percentage of them may die. But the number of them who may die who were vaccinated will be miniscule. Looking at deaths and hospital figures I think overestimates the risk for removing lockdown now, since people aren't going to suddenly become unvaccinated again.
The lag isn't that long!
Sure it is. 3 weeks for vaccine to take effect + 2 weeks to be hospitalised + 1 weeks in hospital before dying say. That's 6 weeks, takes us back to January.
On getting my AZ I was told 1 week for 70% effectiveness. I did wonder whether it was wise stating this as many may then feel safe after 1 week rather than waiting the full 3 weeks. The other discrepancy to the info given out prior to this was the 15 minute wait. It was only required if driving. Anyone else could leave immediately.
I think the 15 minutes is a bigger deal for Pfizer due to the (exceedingly rare) risk of anaphylaxis.
Yes I had heard it was enforced for Pfizer.
I think.it is . My wife had Pfizer and had to wait 15 mins
Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check that the numbers would continue to fall.
"We all have to hit the pause button until then," he said. "But if, after schools go back, there isn't a big uptick then we're in a very different position and can think about opening up sooner rather than later.
Telegraph
The paper is reporting that the real world data is ahead of modelled expected outcomes by several weeks.
That seems a very reasonable suggestion. If numbers continue to fall with schools open then that would be very good news, I expect they will as the vaccine effect will be reducing R by ever increasing numbers.
I got my text a few minutes ago, I'm negative for the virus. Feeling fully better from whatever it was that hit me on Sunday now, whether it be a mild case that wasn't detected or something else.
Do you suffer from allergies at all? My wife does and she said last weekend was quite bad for pollen etc.
I used to as a child get affected by it quite significantly, but haven't in decades that I know about. Could have been that I guess?
Main thing is you’re okay.
Hear hear. It’s good news. Hope Mrs Thompson is also improving.
Thanks she's fine. Was very, very sleepy over the weekend, that's the only effect she's had. Bounced back straight away.
Vaccine did its job IMO. She still got infected but got no major symptoms, just tired, bounced back immediately and didn't pass it on to anyone.
Excellent news. Same for the person I know (a nurse) for whom it was the same.
PS there was some over analysis on PB when I mentioned she was annoyed about getting Covid and all sort of assumptions were made about her worrying too much, etc, etc, etc. She knew that and is very sensible, it was just the irony of having got thru' so much exposure while unvaccinated, then.... A bit like the frustration of a black run skier breaking his leg while falling off a bar stool or a scaffolder doing the same by falling off a stepladder. You know what you did was safer than if skiing/scaffolding but still frustrating.
Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check that the numbers would continue to fall.
"We all have to hit the pause button until then," he said. "But if, after schools go back, there isn't a big uptick then we're in a very different position and can think about opening up sooner rather than later.
Telegraph
The paper is reporting that the real world data is ahead of modelled expected outcomes by several weeks.
Hospitalisation data looked to match the prediction almost exactly.
There's a lag effect isn't there so hospitalisations will be prior cases, which will likely be pre-vaccine.
There's a major lag effect, there's 11k people in hospital right now and a significant percentage of them may die. But the number of them who may die who were vaccinated will be miniscule. Looking at deaths and hospital figures I think overestimates the risk for removing lockdown now, since people aren't going to suddenly become unvaccinated again.
The lag isn't that long!
Sure it is. 3 weeks for vaccine to take effect + 2 weeks to be hospitalised + 1 weeks in hospital before dying say. That's 6 weeks, takes us back to January.
But the hospitalisation data refers to people who caught it maybe a week or so ago, pre-vaccine has nothing to do with it. And the projection was made more than a month ago. It was a prediction of future events when it was made.
I was talking about deaths and the 11k in hospital. The hospitalisations have cratered and are nothing like the 11k, the 11k are mainly pre-vaccination legacy.
As for hospitalisations, almost all of them will be pre-vaccine too. 1 week to get hospitalised + 3 weeks for vaccines to take effect still takes us back to start of February.
Without checking, it all went pear-shaped about a week to 10 days after schools went back in September, didn't it? So what we're looking for is the situation about 15th March plus? If if it's OK then, then we are are bound the edge of the wood, if not quite out of it.
It’s hard to say but there was a noticeable increase in cases from the last week in August, before the schools went back, that has been attributed to people going on holiday etc. A thing to remember too is that schools began to return on 1 June (albeit in a staggered way) for the end of the summer term and deaths (testing was not as widely available) continued to decrease for two, nearly three, months after that.
The good news for Nicola is if her political career does come crashing down, she can retire to her house in [SUPER INJUNCTION] with her [SI] friend from the [SI] [SI] and relax
Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check that the numbers would continue to fall.
"We all have to hit the pause button until then," he said. "But if, after schools go back, there isn't a big uptick then we're in a very different position and can think about opening up sooner rather than later.
Telegraph
The paper is reporting that the real world data is ahead of modelled expected outcomes by several weeks.
That seems a very reasonable suggestion. If numbers continue to fall with schools open then that would be very good news, I expect they will as the vaccine effect will be reducing R by ever increasing numbers.
I got my text a few minutes ago, I'm negative for the virus. Feeling fully better from whatever it was that hit me on Sunday now, whether it be a mild case that wasn't detected or something else.
Do you suffer from allergies at all? My wife does and she said last weekend was quite bad for pollen etc.
I used to as a child get affected by it quite significantly, but haven't in decades that I know about. Could have been that I guess?
Main thing is you’re okay.
Hear hear. It’s good news. Hope Mrs Thompson is also improving.
Thanks she's fine. Was very, very sleepy over the weekend, that's the only effect she's had. Bounced back straight away.
Vaccine did its job IMO. She still got infected but got no major symptoms, just tired, bounced back immediately and didn't pass it on to anyone.
Excellent news. Same for the person I know (a nurse) for whom it was the same.
PS there was some over analysis on PB when I mentioned she was annoyed about getting Covid and all sort of assumptions were made about her worrying too much, etc, etc, etc. She knew that and is very sensible, it was just the irony of having got thru' so much exposure while unvaccinated, then.... A bit like the frustration of a black run skier breaking his leg while falling off a bar stool or a scaffolder doing the same by falling off a stepladder. You know what you did was safer than if skiing/scaffolding but still frustrating.
My wife felt exactly the same!
She's taken every precaution, not stopped being safe due to the vaccine, then to get it now. She was pissed off most at losing her "not taken time off during a pandemic" bragging rights!
Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check that the numbers would continue to fall.
"We all have to hit the pause button until then," he said. "But if, after schools go back, there isn't a big uptick then we're in a very different position and can think about opening up sooner rather than later.
Telegraph
The paper is reporting that the real world data is ahead of modelled expected outcomes by several weeks.
Hospitalisation data looked to match the prediction almost exactly.
There's a lag effect isn't there so hospitalisations will be prior cases, which will likely be pre-vaccine.
There's a major lag effect, there's 11k people in hospital right now and a significant percentage of them may die. But the number of them who may die who were vaccinated will be miniscule. Looking at deaths and hospital figures I think overestimates the risk for removing lockdown now, since people aren't going to suddenly become unvaccinated again.
The lag isn't that long!
Sure it is. 3 weeks for vaccine to take effect + 2 weeks to be hospitalised + 1 weeks in hospital before dying say. That's 6 weeks, takes us back to January.
On getting my AZ I was told 1 week for 70% effectiveness. I did wonder whether it was wise stating this as many may then feel safe after 1 week rather than waiting the full 3 weeks. The other discrepancy to the info given out prior to this was the 15 minute wait. It was only required if driving. Anyone else could leave immediately.
I think the 15 minutes is a bigger deal for Pfizer due to the (exceedingly rare) risk of anaphylaxis.
Yes I had heard it was enforced for Pfizer.
I think.it is . My wife had Pfizer and had to wait 15 mins
Same here, Pfizer only , my wife had Astra Zeneca and no wait at all. For me they said 10 minutes if not driving but take full 15 minutes if driving to be sure.
As this is allegedly a website focussed on wagering the outcomes of political events does anyone want to give some tips on Scottish politics after today?
You would need a crystal ball, only thing for sure is SNP will have most seats regardless.
The SNP are still polling well north of their 2016 share and the tories have replaced Right Wing Ruth with the duty manager from the Edinburgh airport JD Sports so it's well possible the SNP will increase their number of seats.
Labour: fuck knows but eBay Armando Ianucci is progress compared to Kezia.
Agree , there is no competition and they will only get seats due only to list system and fact it stops SNP getting list seats.
Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check that the numbers would continue to fall.
"We all have to hit the pause button until then," he said. "But if, after schools go back, there isn't a big uptick then we're in a very different position and can think about opening up sooner rather than later.
Telegraph
The paper is reporting that the real world data is ahead of modelled expected outcomes by several weeks.
That seems a very reasonable suggestion. If numbers continue to fall with schools open then that would be very good news, I expect they will as the vaccine effect will be reducing R by ever increasing numbers.
I got my text a few minutes ago, I'm negative for the virus. Feeling fully better from whatever it was that hit me on Sunday now, whether it be a mild case that wasn't detected or something else.
Do you suffer from allergies at all? My wife does and she said last weekend was quite bad for pollen etc.
I used to as a child get affected by it quite significantly, but haven't in decades that I know about. Could have been that I guess?
Main thing is you’re okay.
Hear hear. It’s good news. Hope Mrs Thompson is also improving.
Thanks she's fine. Was very, very sleepy over the weekend, that's the only effect she's had. Bounced back straight away.
Vaccine did its job IMO. She still got infected but got no major symptoms, just tired, bounced back immediately and didn't pass it on to anyone.
Excellent news. Same for the person I know (a nurse) for whom it was the same.
PS there was some over analysis on PB when I mentioned she was annoyed about getting Covid and all sort of assumptions were made about her worrying too much, etc, etc, etc. She knew that and is very sensible, it was just the irony of having got thru' so much exposure while unvaccinated, then.... A bit like the frustration of a black run skier breaking his leg while falling off a bar stool or a scaffolder doing the same by falling off a stepladder. You know what you did was safer than if skiing/scaffolding but still frustrating.
My wife felt exactly the same!
She's taken every precaution, not stopped being safe due to the vaccine, then to get it now. She was pissed off most at losing her "not taken time off during a pandemic" bragging rights!
Your example demonstrates precisely why vaccines are such a good idea, the case that got through was very mild and didn't transmit onward to the most likely recipient (yourself)
Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check that the numbers would continue to fall.
"We all have to hit the pause button until then," he said. "But if, after schools go back, there isn't a big uptick then we're in a very different position and can think about opening up sooner rather than later.
Telegraph
The paper is reporting that the real world data is ahead of modelled expected outcomes by several weeks.
Hospitalisation data looked to match the prediction almost exactly.
There's a lag effect isn't there so hospitalisations will be prior cases, which will likely be pre-vaccine.
There's a major lag effect, there's 11k people in hospital right now and a significant percentage of them may die. But the number of them who may die who were vaccinated will be miniscule. Looking at deaths and hospital figures I think overestimates the risk for removing lockdown now, since people aren't going to suddenly become unvaccinated again.
The lag isn't that long!
Sure it is. 3 weeks for vaccine to take effect + 2 weeks to be hospitalised + 1 weeks in hospital before dying say. That's 6 weeks, takes us back to January.
But the hospitalisation data refers to people who caught it maybe a week or so ago, pre-vaccine has nothing to do with it. And the projection was made more than a month ago. It was a prediction of future events when it was made.
I was talking about deaths and the 11k in hospital. The hospitalisations have cratered and are nothing like the 11k, the 11k are mainly pre-vaccination legacy.
As for hospitalisations, almost all of them will be pre-vaccine too. 1 week to get hospitalised + 3 weeks for vaccines to take effect still takes us back to start of February.
Without checking, it all went pear-shaped about a week to 10 days after schools went back in September, didn't it? So what we're looking for is the situation about 15th March plus? If if it's OK then, then we are are bound the edge of the wood, if not quite out of it.
I don't use this one very much - because the increase in testing makes any comparison between peaks unless
Prof Carl Heneghan, the director of the Centre for Evidence Based Medicine at the University of Oxford, said it was important to wait until schools go back next week to check that the numbers would continue to fall.
"We all have to hit the pause button until then," he said. "But if, after schools go back, there isn't a big uptick then we're in a very different position and can think about opening up sooner rather than later.
Telegraph
The paper is reporting that the real world data is ahead of modelled expected outcomes by several weeks.
Hospitalisation data looked to match the prediction almost exactly.
There's a lag effect isn't there so hospitalisations will be prior cases, which will likely be pre-vaccine.
There's a major lag effect, there's 11k people in hospital right now and a significant percentage of them may die. But the number of them who may die who were vaccinated will be miniscule. Looking at deaths and hospital figures I think overestimates the risk for removing lockdown now, since people aren't going to suddenly become unvaccinated again.
The lag isn't that long!
Sure it is. 3 weeks for vaccine to take effect + 2 weeks to be hospitalised + 1 weeks in hospital before dying say. That's 6 weeks, takes us back to January.
But the hospitalisation data refers to people who caught it maybe a week or so ago, pre-vaccine has nothing to do with it. And the projection was made more than a month ago. It was a prediction of future events when it was made.
I was talking about deaths and the 11k in hospital. The hospitalisations have cratered and are nothing like the 11k, the 11k are mainly pre-vaccination legacy.
As for hospitalisations, almost all of them will be pre-vaccine too. 1 week to get hospitalised + 3 weeks for vaccines to take effect still takes us back to start of February.
Without checking, it all went pear-shaped about a week to 10 days after schools went back in September, didn't it? So what we're looking for is the situation about 15th March plus? If if it's OK then, then we are are bound the edge of the wood, if not quite out of it.
I don't use this one very much - because the increase in testing makes any comparison between peaks unless
Comments
Did someone think this through? Was this always intended to prevent this material becoming public? Can we really think its ok for evidence of an apparent conspiracy to be redacted by the prosecution authorities and kept from public view rather than explored? It seems a weird position for the Crown to adopt and yet they have been very active in doing so as the various prosecutions, threats of prosecutions and complaints have demonstrated.
Well, they got to use those re-education camps for something I guess
We didn't see this last spring summer (without the vaccinated and with less previously infected), so should see an easier time ahead, and not too far ahead at that...
PS: I was hardly urging him to break the law, it was a suggestion of how it could be done, no idea how you came to that conclusion. I have no hold over him or a gun to his head, pretty pathetic in fact.
eg Candy Brothers' first project was a one bed flat in Fulham in 1995 bought for £122k.
Here (Mansfield / Bolsover area), trad terraces were 25-30k ish in 1990, pretty flat until 2000, doubled by 2004-5 with most of that in the 18 months 2003-4, then fell back again by 2/3 of that rise, and are now up to something like 70-90k.
It’s proving a tad difficult.
As for hospitalisations, almost all of them will be pre-vaccine too. 1 week to get hospitalised + 3 weeks for vaccines to take effect still takes us back to start of February.
I think it was probably all in my head, playing on my mind knowing my wife had it. Brain does funny things to you.
There was a time this would have appealed to Republicans.
https://twitter.com/schwarzenegger/status/1351973032953188352
So what we're looking for is the situation about 15th March plus? If if it's OK then, then we are are bound the edge of the wood, if not quite out of it.
Vaccine did its job IMO. She still got infected but got no major symptoms, just tired, bounced back immediately and didn't pass it on to anyone.
Really
"First Minister, is it true you like kittens?"
I was offered a one bed modest 400 sqft flat in a 1870s brick block in the quiet part of the City (just into Hackney) behind Wesley's Chapel for about 100k (70k but would need 15k extend lease + 15k to refurb) in very late 1990s. Called Victoria Chambers - I always thought it was a Victorian slum clearance -> workers flats project. All the streets are named after apostles.
Prices for a similar sold 4 times have gone:
1998 99,950
2001 160,000
2006 220,000
2017 450,000
Another similar sold 4 times has gone:
2000 130,000
2005 220,000
2008 250,000
2013 345,000
Sales in 2019/2020 are back around 345-350k.
Current rents are approx £1500-1600 per month, whilst I paid £650. Which demonstrates the collapse of yields in London by more than half.
That is a decent rep of London prices with the Financial Crash smoothed out, for a very modest basic flat 5 minutes from Finsbury Square.
By comparison, in a part of the Red Wall I know well, trad terraces were 25-30k ish in 1990, pretty flat until 2000, doubled by 2004-5 with most of that in the 18 months 2003-4, then fell back again by 2/3 of that rise, and are now up to something like 70-90k depending.
Candy Brothers first project was a one bed flat bought in 1995 in Fulham for £122k. Refurbed and sold for £170k.
The tricky point is going to be not panicking if cases go up, but hospitalisations and deaths keep falling.
Will be a test of nerve.
https://twitter.com/SophiaSleigh/status/1367036793103798274
However given the utter lack of credible alternatives, she may be unavoidable.
Labour: fuck knows but eBay Armando Ianucci is progress compared to Kezia.
That may of course have been due to the greater number of tests being carried out, but the fact that the trend continued to rise with only minimal interruptions until the October half term despite drastic control measures in HE, and then declined only slightly as the rest of the country was locked down, is suggestive. Especially since six weeks after the decision was finally made to close schools, cases have dropped off a cliff even among groups that are not yet vaccinated.
At least, it is to me. I could of course be completely wrong and it was caused by goblins, or lizard people, or lockdown breakers. But schools seem the likeliest vector of transmission, and it is also incidentally suggestive that case rates in schools - where we are told they should be lower - closely mirrored those in the wider community.
Hopefully, however, the vaccine rollout means even when (please note 'when,' for the reasons @Fysics_Teacher describes) cases go up, hospitalisations won't. I taught a great many children who were carrying the disease as confirmed by testing, but I can only think of one who showed any symptoms at all. And even that one wasn't very ill. If that is the case across the board, then obviously the government can be a lot bolder in opening up.
Anyway, teaching beckons. Enjoy Sturgeon's testimony and see you after the budget.
How does your post count magically stay at zero?
NEW THREAD
https://www.scottishparliament.tv/
Anything.
PS there was some over analysis on PB when I mentioned she was annoyed about getting Covid and all sort of assumptions were made about her worrying too much, etc, etc, etc. She knew that and is very sensible, it was just the irony of having got thru' so much exposure while unvaccinated, then.... A bit like the frustration of a black run skier breaking his leg while falling off a bar stool or a scaffolder doing the same by falling off a stepladder. You know what you did was safer than if skiing/scaffolding but still frustrating.
She's taken every precaution, not stopped being safe due to the vaccine, then to get it now. She was pissed off most at losing her "not taken time off during a pandemic" bragging rights!