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Polling Klaxon: Why you shouldn’t read too much into a small subsample, see this Scottish subsample
Polling Klaxon: Why you shouldn’t read too much into a small subsample, see this Scottish subsample as the perfect example – politicalbetting.com
Calm down, that's a sub sample with a massive MOE, it is next to useless. https://t.co/CMfWE40Bbl
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4 polls in a row now have shown that support for independence has fallen. I know that the SNP Holyrood and Indy votes are not synonymous but they’re closely related
And all of this before Alex Salmond’s evisceration of Sturgeon & Co.
I suspect that this tiny sub sample may be a bellweather.
https://whatscotlandthinks.org/2021/02/has-the-constitutional-wind-changed-direction/
https://www.heraldscotland.com/news/19082212.scottish-independence-support-falls-first-time-since-december/
Oh...
https://twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1365919787075989505?s=20
On topic, does this represent a straw in the wind for independence, or simply a reaction to the shenanigans between the present and former Leaders of the SNP?
https://twitter.com/MacaesBruno/status/1365814177361707014?s=20
2) If there is a hit to SNP support, it is more likely to be showing up in the next fortnight or so as Salmond’s appearance and the further documentation play out. Equally, Sturgeon has yet to respond and may be able to defeat or at least deflect the allegations against her.
So for all those reasons I am ignoring this sub sample.
However - and it is a big however - the current situation probably means pollsters shouldn’t be polling subsamples in Scotland at the moment because the dynamic is so different from England and Wales right now. Either they should be concentrating on England and Wales and doing Scotland separately, or they should be sampling Scotland much more throughly in any overall poll (which I suppose amounts to the same thing). Otherwise they will always be slightly overstating Blue and Red support and laying themselves wide open to random fluctuations among the Yellows.
The leading large nation, far ahead of the US and, more gallingly for us frothing Remoaners, miles ahead of Europe. Nothing could be more depressing for the honest self-loathing liberal Brit. You know the type. Recycle assiduously but fly once a fortnight.
Right now they've got a 100% unvaxxed population though.
They're being rightly cautious for their position
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsCrmvnWcaQ
*bellwether
A wether is a castrated ram. One with a bell around its neck leads the flock.
Some interesting polling especially on the leaders:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xY7aqvR9oD0
In other news, it's reported this morning that around two million people aged 60-63 are to receive booking letters from Monday, so if they've not already been called up for vaccination then one assumes that they should be able to book this coming week. That completes Cohort 7, so just the fiftysomethings left to go after that to clear Phase One. Happy days
https://amp.economist.com/britain/2021/02/27/how-british-science-came-to-the-rescue?__twitter_impression=true
'It's a fiddle, they're bigging it up because they're desperate. It will still kill all my sperm and let Bill Gates read my brainwaves with his microchips, just like before they oh-so-mysteriously changed their minds. No thanks matey.'
But ‘ethnic minority’ and ‘Asian’ are not quite the same thing. All Asians in this country are members of an ethnic minority, but not all ethnic minorities are Asian.
The annoying thing about this claim he is the first EM leader of a political party is it distracts from the real achievement that you highlight above.
His family have done very well from coming to Scotland a few generations ago.
From hearing his acceptance speech, which was good.
https://stephendaisley.com/2021/02/27/the-ghost-of-holyrood-past-returns-to-haunt-sturgeon/amp/?__twitter_impression=true
The UK faces having to wait longer and pay more to acquire a coronavirus vaccine because it has left the EU, health experts and international legal experts warn today.
In an article published today on the Guardian website, the academics and lawyers say Boris Johnson’s determination to “go it alone”, free of EU regulation, after Brexit means the UK will probably have to join other non-EU countries in a queue to acquire the vaccine after EU member states have had it, and on less-favourable terms.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-vaccine-delays-brexit-ema-expensive
Selby rail crash: Disaster remembered 20 years on
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-56085631
I suppose it says something for the extraordinary safety record of the railways in recent years that that’s the last but one mainline accident in which more than one passenger was killed, and the only one in the 21st century with a fatality count in double figures.
This is an exchange I had over on LDV, which adds a little more light. Not quite exactly what I was after, but it helps.
Q:
"Salmond’s last act (literally the last 90 seconds of 6 hours) was to invite the Committee to serve a “reveal evidence” notice on his solicitor to access all the evidence held about the previous Court Actions under Section 23 of the Scotland Act – a “Section 23” Notice – which may will leapfrog all of the blockages. At least one committee member has already said they will pursue it.
Is it possible that Malcolm Bruce, or one of the other knowledgeable LDV contributors who know the Holyrood setup more intimately than me, can comment on the process and implications of Alex Salmond’s offer?"
A: from a commenter called 'Hireton', which does add some useful info.
It looks like Salmond must be referring to information which was revealed to the defence by the Crown Office for the purposes of the trial.
As I understand it under Scots law, this may only be used for the defence and any subsequent appeals and not disclosed or used for any other purpose. So it seems unlikely that his defence team could reveal it.
We know that Salmond’s team tried to argue in front of Lady Dorrian in pre-trial hearings that certain evidence should be allowed to be put before the Court. She ruled that it was inadmissible and there was no appeal from his team against that ruling. This may be the same evidence.
It seems highly unlikely that if the defence team had credible evidence of a conspiracy to obstruct the ends of justice that it would be ruled as inadmissible or that, if it was, they would not have appealed against Lady Dorrian’s ruling.
You may recall that Salmond and his supporters previously argued that WhatsApp messages between the complainants revealed evidence of a conspiracy between them and SNP officials. In a highly controversial move the Parliamentary Committee used its powers to obtain the messages from the Crown Office only to return them almost immediately when it became apparent they were simply messages of mutual support and had no bearing on its inquiry. Rape Crisis Scotland issued a statement on behalf of the women which is worth reading criticising both the Committee and the Crown Office.
The statement from RCS adds further context.
https://www.rapecrisisscotland.org.uk/blogs/news/1004/redir/
Even Bastani pulled them up over it, although he forgot Sir John Simon:
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1365636159632781315
https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1365649793037516802
Edit - not Sir John Simon, Sir Herbert Samuel!
https://www.libdemvoice.org/whither-scottish-nationalism-67083.html?#comment-549967
Priti Patel did not in England.
As the Improper Officer...
I think the more interesting question is whether either the Scottish Parliament or Boris Johnson have the power to dismiss her if it is found she does breach the ministerial code.
The former clearly have the power, but may choose not to exercise it - the latter may not, but would doubtless use it if he thought he had (hypocritical though it would be given Patel).
What this shows is we need a proper process of impeachment, maybe by a two-thirds vote of the Commons and Lords in common assembly.
I suppose in theory Parliament could vote to remove Sturgeon or suspend Holyrood, but my goodness what a row that would cause.
https://twitter.com/Number10cat/status/1364195862142984197
Things often happen earlier than we think as they can go backwards. There were briefly some black senators in the 1860s, then not again for 100 years or so.
I'd like to think that this would cause both Sturgeon and her party real damage. It should. But it won't. People support the SNP because they want independence. Not because they are competent, honest, trustworthy or whatever. Its a very happy situation for a political party to be in.
Only the vague suspicion that Sturgeon is rather too fond of the trappings of office and doesn't want to risk a second referendum has caused murmurings in the ranks. A Sturgeon with a manifesto of a second referendum in the next Parliament will prevail over her domestic critics and all too probably over the opposing parties as well.
The NHS app should have been upgraded in advance to allow for vaccine notifications / end of day stock use based on location.
Are Jews BAME? Jews are recognised by provisions in the Race Relations Act as a distinct racial group. Judaism is an ethno-religious grouping. Within living memory, two thirds of Europe’s Jews were murdered on account of their ethnicity; the Nazis were keen to include in their slaughter even those with no cultural or religious ties to Judaism. Yet in the 21st Century, despite the continued killing in Europe of Jews for being Jewish, some consider Jews to be the beneficiaries of ‘white privilege’.
Not that that helps Jewish people, though
Could someone please explain - briefly - why Salmond and Sturgeon fell out. I thought they were best mates. So why would she be - allegedly - trying to put him in prison?
It’s also worth noting that outsiders have always regarded Jewish people as an ethnic group. Even after conversion, Conversios in Spain were still subject to repression by the Inquisition, and one could not convert one’s way to safety under the Nazis. Debates about whether or not they actually are are somewhat otiose in that context.
Court challenge on something?
One would imagine that, with the capacity and apparent efficiency of the distribution system, there isn't a significant problem with leftover supply.
Beyond that, snail mail continues to have its place. A significant fraction of the population doesn't own a smartphone, the NHS won't have the current number for a great many of those that do, and not nearly everyone who owns one leaves it on the whole time and regularly checks it either.
We handed it back because we had no choice, and nor did the Hong Kong people.
For now, letters are needed at least as backup.
A bit like the report on the desperate state of Scottish education that is on Swinney's desk but will not be published until after the election. These things happen in a one party state.
1. Sarwar is not the leader of a political party
2. Were he the leader of a party he wouldn't be the first BAME leader - multiple Jewish leaders
3. Labour exceptionalism at its worst - only Labour apparently can have an interest in anti-racism apparently
4. Labour saying that Jews Don't Count. Again.
They deliver a benefit in all the circs I know eg in appointment attendance rates, but eg my local GP only made it routine a year ago after trials.
(This garbage could only be the Mail surely?)