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Command syndrome: Brexit and Covid have defined Johnson’s leadership style – politicalbetting.com
Command syndrome: Brexit and Covid have defined Johnson’s leadership style – politicalbetting.com
Boris Johnson is an oddity of a prime minister in many ways. For someone with such an impeccable establishment background, there’s a distinct air of the outsider to him. Maybe its that while he may be amusing and entertaining to many, he’s not especially clubbable; to be at the centre of attention, he has to be to some extent apart; he always blazed a trail aimed at No 10 but his path was unconventional, as, inevitably, was his political experience. That defines his premiership and will continue to do so.
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I disagree that Theresa May was PM who would compromise. Didn’t she fail to involve the DUP with her Brexit Deal? And like Johnson, she played the election card with a view to obtaining more power.
Theresa May was notoriously tricky to work with. I don't know anyone who would describe her as clubbable.
David Cameron most certainly was NOT clubbable. He was aloof, operated in his own clan and if you weren't in the inner circle then you were nobody.
Gordon Brown was self-obsessed and not clubbable.
Tony Blair was affable and genial but I think it was a charade and it was still all about him. He was something of a cult figure, as evidenced since he stood down.
John Major was probably the most clubbable PM of my lifetime and one of the worst PM's.
Margaret Thatcher was the most aloof, unclubbable and least collegiate PM of my lifetime ... and the best PM by a country mile.
I could go, but you get the point.
To be PM you need to be up yourself, aloof, un-collegiate and un-clubbable. It's a lonely job. You don't get there by being luvvie.
Johnson's biggest problem is that he's insecure. He has been much better since showing Cummings the door but he needs to rein in his ministers who are loose canons and frequently contradicting one another as they pitch for power.
Boris Johnson needs to be less collegiate and clubbable and more aloof from the herd. He has the makings of a fine Prime Minister.
I'd also say that Boris's insecurity has significant implications because he's always after short-term popularity at the expense of longer-term governance. Good governance often involves upsetting a lot of people at the start of your five year term and hoping that the positive results show up before the next election. But he seems to want the government to be run in permanent election mode.
It may work, especially against a very weak opposition, but I think the country will suffer in the long run as necessary but unpopular reforms are postponed. Most obviously we've seen that with changes to the planning system, which have been almost abandoned.
On benig clubbable, I agree that political leaders have to be aloof. So do business leaders. When everyone who talks to you professionally wants something, you need to preserve some distance so you can say no. I sometimes wonder if that's why political leaders like summit conferences so much - other PMs and Presidents don't continually nag them for jobs and are less likely to beg directly for public cash.
(Yes I know there’s a discussion about relaxing them, but it hasn’t happened yet.)
Now that Brexit, as Brexit, is done he has to go somewhere else, he has to make it work, and as we've seen with his marriages, 'making something work' is something that bores him.
In a sense the pandemic has been something which saves him; he can be seen to be acting, and it has prevented Starmer (or someone) from really excoriating him in the Commons.
Yes, the backbenchers will cheer and encourage when he's being savaged, but when they go into the tea-room or the bar they'll wonder.
The big difference with the clown is that he advances neither ideology nor programme nor goes out of his way to cultivate followers, therefore whereas there were Thatcherites and Blairites and Brownites and Cameroons, there is no such thing as Johnsonite. Not having his own clan, and therefore only being able to gather about him comparative inadequates, will be his undoing, which is probably what David was trying to get at.
Has anyone noticed any comments from @Cyclefree recently? I've lurked quite a bit but haven't noticed a comment from her for a week or so. A bit concerned for her & her family.
Good morning, everybody.
If he had written one that came to the conclusion that EU was not for the UK, then supported leave - it would have been so very different. He would have won the referendum for Leave at least 60:40, quite possibly more. He would have demolished the efforts through to 2019 to frustrate delivery. He could have gone to the country again having delivered a far less rancorous Brexit and quite possibly have improved on Boris's majority.
And he would have prevented Prime Minister Boris Johnson.
There's a lot to be said for writing two letters. Being PM often involves taking 51-49 decisions, with advocating devils for each outcome sat on your shoulders. But having decided, you must put the losing devil to the sword. And plough on with that chosen course.
"Johnsonite has delivered the broadest portfolio of high-performance, resilient flooring surfaces"
https://commercial.tarkett.com/en_US/brand/johnsonite
"Balanced solutions for productive spaces." Well, it's a sort of credo, I suppose.....
The weakness is Johnson is a poor judge of character leading a very weak Cabinet. So ‘letting them get on with it’ isn’t a successful strategy.
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/02/19/politics/democrats-joe-biden-covid-relief-package/index.html
But I disagree that Johnson will go before the next election. After a rocky period, he's enjoying it too much.
Like Trump, he is in permanent sunny campaigning mode, doesn't have an ideology, depends on personal loyalty not competence, is ruthless and self centred, and prepared to trample on the constitution to get his way. He is also appeals to a core of blue collar workers who I suspect will be unswerving in their support. He'll have to be prised out of office. He's a limpet.
Boris has around him those who could be natural successors. Sunak, obviously. Truss, if she carries on cheerfully delivering. Maybe Dowden, if Boris goes long. Having secured the top job, Boris doesn't exude the air that nobody could possibly do the job as well as them. You won't have to prise each finger off the door jamb of Number 10. When he does go, he can be relaxed there will be somebody competent to take over.
Mr. Observer, I'm amused you think the right rather than the left is leading a culture war.
It wasn't the right tearing down statues or kneeling. I don't know if the tweet below is accurate (I hope it isn't) but right wing it certainly is not:
https://twitter.com/DrKarlynB/status/1362774562769879044
"Unlike May, he chose not to engage them but instead to engage them"
I'm guessing that second instance should be enrage?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-56125796
Instead he should focus on those Tories who really despise and distrust Johnson. Some despise him as a person. Others, more fiscally dry, distrust him on the economy; others see him as not sufficiently supportive of business. They'll continue to back him as long as he's seen as a winner but they are not solid supporters.
(And as fun as I find it to poke fun at them for it, it's like how foxy said about Harry and Meghan, those whinging about flags are being pettier than those demanding them, not least when leaders world over do it)
Do you really think he would care!! Really? All he'll care about his place in the history books. It would suit him if his successor is a dumbo.
But he won't.
BUT what isn't fair is to act like it is all one way, that there's nothing significant and stupid that is also being criticised by such people, and that while sometimes a response might be considered disproportionate, that does not mean there is nothing worthy of a response or that it's wrong, sometimes, to address a small thing before it becomes a big thing.
Some want to stir things up to cover themselves politically, I think we need to be wary of any such attempts. But there is meat on the bone they are chewing on this issue as well, there is something there. We can argue how much and how it should be reacted to but there is something, this is not happening in a vacuum.
Boris has had to react to parliamentary pressure on relaxing coronavirus restrictions, and from his northern block on levelling up. The reason for this is that he came closer than generally known to a leadership challenge in September/October last year.
I think he realised changes needed to be made, and swapped out Cain and Cummings for a far more competent team. Now, I'm starting to see emerging coherence in a new global foreign policy, a pump-prime for the economy, big projects in the north to "level up" and leading decarbonisation.
I'm not naive. I still think he's lazy, slow, self-obsessed and untrustworthy. So, do I put all the credit for this at Boris's door? No. His strengths are largely realized when he picks the right team, and are otherwise confined to setting out a vision, with a fair few whacky ones in the mix, but I think he's grown into the role a bit (only a bit) in the last year, and, for as long as he continues to pick and keep a good team, remains worried about his own political survival, and maintains a focus on his legacy, he should stay in office and be OK.
Whatever troubles Boris may have his two years in office have been infinitely better ran than the two that preceded him.
Just a thought....maybe she's just out walking.
Clubs are groups with something in common, therefore by definition exclusive. I think uncollegiate might be the better word.
Also disagree on Major - by no means the worst. But with an impossible wicket to play on.
The reason it's the oldest and most successful party in the Western world at gaining and retaining office is because it's willing to be so flexible in its positioning.
The key thing is that it stays in power.
A walk might be a better idea for you.
Boris is not someone I and many others want as PM, but relatively speaking hes had a good few weeks. His fans love that and some critics will accept its been far from his worst period. Doesnt change fundamentals.
Some, maybe even most, of these ideas may not ultimately work. Some will undoubtedly prove to have been a waste of money. But you could say exactly the same about FDR's New Deal and rather miss the point that it transformed America.
Small state, low tax Tories are not going to stop wincing as the generous Covid packages recede. Spending will continue to be aggressive and deficits not worried about. Maybe that's what we need. Its certainly what we are going to get.
He wouldn't have been a Europhile in the 1940s (like Eden), he would have been an enthusiastic one in the 1970s, he'd be very pro market in the 80s, he was a mild Eurosceptic but remainer in the 90s and 00s, and he would be an independent sovereignist in the 2030s.
It might well for a bit, for better or worse depending on personal values, but itll soon change to another!
What we are seeing now, is their absolute fury that moderates are seeking to push back a little at some of their absurdity.
Women have children, and Martin Luther King was right when he said the world should be colour blind rather than segregated. These shouldn’t be controversial statements.
In terms of national, economic policy, so far he looks like Heseltine + Brexit, or Christian Democrat minus European unity. This is an extraordinary mix of centrism and populism.
In terms of social/moral direction he is laissez faire.
In terms of strategy/election winning he is populist/charismatic.
And personally he looks and acts like a disciple of Nietzsche/Machiavelli.
He is the only person who is obviously a genius (quite different from being nice) in government or parliament.
So I think the heart of David Herdson's excellent and interesting thesis is incorrect FWIW.
If he falls he will fall big, but I think his ambition will be to retire from leadership into something else (probably not baking cakes with Mary Berry) at a time apparently of his choosing. But currently his genius has a long way to run.
Yes yes yes Brexit etc etc etc. Yawn. But the reason for that was because there was a fundamental conservative belief, shared widely in the country, that our EU membership threatened those things, and therefore the wrenching move of leaving was the lesser of two evils. However, the classic conservative preference would have been a large and comprehensive renegotiation and loosening, which Cameron didn't or couldn't deliver.
It's why I think the issue will now start to fade away, whilst the Conservative coalition largely stays intact. It's not the prime issue we animates fractures within it, except at the margins.
Fear will be the best Tory tactic at the next GE, and rightly so.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/955122/MCD_letter_to_members_of_the_Parliamentary_Parties_Panel.pdf"
Para 1 calls it "Advice", which is by definition optional, and it is couched as 'The Government's view is that current restrictions do not support door to door canvassing at this particular time'.
"Banning Leafletting" was a claimed whipped up by the editor of Lib Dem Voice here:
https://www.libdemvoice.org/conservative-government-bans-political-leafletting-how-should-lib-dems-react-66819.html
I spotted that one of my more querulous senior local councillors had been Keystone-Copped. It *was* within a mile or two of Derbyshire.
Clarification required now that the constabulary have become involved.
Despite all the sound and fury Brexit will result in less change for Britain than remaining in an ever changing Europe.
Even if one accepts an inch-perfect pandemic and Brexit performance (any shortcomings being someone else's fault) and the statistics that suggest he is electoral catnip, I still don't see where we get genius from.
I like him. He's one of my favourite posters on here, and a good guy. Unfortunately, he's let Twitter (where he has a couple of thousand echo-chamber followers) go to his head as he serves them up what they want to hear. He'd get far more out of coming back on here and engaging with the few dozen intelligent posters we have. But, that's at times harder work because you have to listen and think, and you don't get all those retweets and likes.
I also think it's rather strange. Southam is no hard-line Lefty, and I suspect has some deep-rooted concerns with some of the extreme cultural moves of the radical Left. But, I think he's deeply frustrated by losing for over 11 years now and is searching for a coherent and unifying attack line that he can use on the Tories to coalesce Labour as one and help them regain power, so he's burying it for now.
I just think he's being overly influenced by Twitter, and has picked the wrong one.
It's worth bearing in mind that most northerners despise London. It's overcrowded, overpriced, and the people are alloof and unfriendly. And the government pours tax money on it (e.g. by building the most expensive railway in history so people can get there faster). Why would we want a railway to get us somewhere we don't want to go faster?
Northerners don't travel by train much anyway - we mostly drive. And about all the government has done for Northern drivers is some stretches of Smart Motorways, which are pretty universally hated (mostly because of the cameras, but also because of how dangerous they are), because they are far to cheapskate to add extra lanes properly.
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-speech-at-the-munich-security-conference-19-february-2021
The problem may go away if the restrictions are relaxed soon. However, at present the Government is being understood by police forces to expect them to charge leafleters. If that's the intention, it should be clearly stated so it's consistent. If that's not the intention, Ms Patel should make it clear. Is an unambiguous legal position too much to ask?
By the way, it's not about canvassing. Pretty much everyone accepts that actually engaging with loads of people on the doorstep would be a clear breach of the rules, as well as stupid and extremely unpopular.
1. A vote for Starmer is a vote to let Corbynism in by the back door
2. A vote for Starmer is a vote to reopen old wounds over Europe
3. A vote for Starmer is a vote to let the SNP help itself to (even more of) your money
Labour can argue the toss that none of this is true, but the dire electoral arithmetic and the nature of Labour's membership and its backbench MPs are more than sufficient to plant the seeds of doubt in voters' minds.
But what's interesting (to me) about this is that the FDA (senior CS union) are seeking a judicial review of Johnson's decision not to sack her. The FDA is always extremely cautious about the steps it takes to protect its members, and it's fairly extraordinary that it is pursuing this through JR. It suggest to me that there is a smoking gun here, and that Patel's bullying is not actually in dispute at all. If they didn't have compelling evidence of egregious behaviour, the FDA would quietly drop it.
On another matter, I've seen little comment on Hancock/DHSC being judged to have broken the law on contracts:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56125462
By the way, a really interesting header.
Otherwise I'd dispute the 'good few weeks', except that nothing obvious has gone wrong. The tunnel to NI is clearly a non starter, and I can only assume that, as in London, he feels he'll get some credit for the idea and for trying and suffer no downside when nothing comes of it. Probably he'll now go on to waste a few tens of £millions getting someone to look into it.
Things look a little better for the Tories because Labour appears to have decided to try and make a bit more impact, yet is struggling.
I note you ignored all of the rest of my post, where I anticipated brain-dead reposts like this to it.
It absolutely should be completely clear if it is currently against the law. They may be warier of saying when it will not be, given circumspection over relaxation of restrictions, and may be hoping to announce that the all clear is given soon.
But people should not be uncertain if the police are expected to be going around charging leafleters.
I think the contract issue has had little comment since on here at least we've had it brought up a lot, so it was not so much a surprise.
Although my local hospital centre has now closed to bookings and is saving its Pfizer for second doses for those that have already had it. Don't know whether this is the case nationwide, but it might make sense to manage second doses through hospitals while continuing first doses with AZN out in the field, keeping the two streams separate.
That he could get a majority of 80 from that electorate is a mystery to so many. Well, have you perhaps considered that maybe political prognostication really isn't for you, huh? Anybody that laid Boris as leader and PM really hasn't got the insights into modern politics required to be putting down hard cash.
I think if I had waited for my GP to contact me then I would probably not have known I had a choice.
If you think you are going to get a letter soon it might be worth just going to the NHS website and giving it a go.
A small win for Great Jumping Jolyon?
Thus some Tory fear-based campaigns have done very well, but there have been some spectacular failures - Churchill in 1945 went round suggesting Labour government would lead to the gestapo, and the Tories unsuccessfully tried to dent Blair with the devil eyes posters and suchlike.
If the next GE has voters looking forward to a better, fairer post-pandemic world, a fear campaign may backfire.
The SNP won all but three MPs in 2015, before Brexit. They were never going to let sleeping dogs lie and if it wasn't Brexit they would have latched upon anything else instead.
You don't want Sindy because of Brexit. You want Sindy because you've always wanted Sindy.
As for the Irish it will depend as it has for decades upon demographics.
It's perfectly possible Boris thinks what you think he does, yet still acts with petty lack of care when it comes to a successor.
And there's the wider issue that they rightly see the government's defence - that she didn't mean to bully anyone, as driving a cart and horses through the utility of the code in ever holding any politician to account for their behaviour in the future.
They use to stand for sound money, personal freedom and a small state. They understood business, particularly small businesses. They knew small businesses are destroyed by regulations, big businesses love them as it destroys their smaller nimble competition.
Currently they appear to have abandoned all that. They are simply trading as the "less bad party" with a side helping of (badly played out) culture war.
It's maddening as a voter. I don't want to vote for Johnson and his clowns, but the only viable alternative is Starmer, who stands for all the same things as Johnson just done a bit worse, plus the really insane side of the culture war.
Even if he gets a difficult question he can refer it to the advisors alongside him.
Johnson is in permanent election mode , without the checks and balances awarded to the opposition
Parties that would normally apply.
Another CC - Gloucester? - has said it is OK.
The Councillor is also up before the Beak in May 2021 on assault charges. They dropped the "resisting arrest".
And then again a week later for a separate trial after an "incident" at ASDA.
It's all happening in Ashfield. Good job there are no elections this year.