I think it's fair game for political opponents to take potshots at each other, and if it's from someone's official account it's as good as from them, they've entrusted someone to do it.
I’m sure the Nats would react with calm equanimity if Johnson was to take potshots as the Scottish government’s various embarrassing moments.....
Another reason to allow leaflet distribution is that elections are going to be complicated this year. Parties will have to inform voters of which elections are being held, how many seats are up for election, how many candidates you can vote for, and which are the candidates to vote for. On another matter strange events in Liverpool. The Labour party have started re-interviewing the 3 people ( all women) who have been short-listed for Mayoral candidate. All three are associated with disgraced Mayor Joe Anderson. I suspect a central party intervention may be due. It also appears that an independent investigation into Liverpool council is expected to report shortly.
Leaving aside the four-nation rivalry, we really should stop and wonder at the extraordinary fact that from a standing start on 8th December, we've now vaccinated about a third of all adults in the UK, including the majority of the most at-risk. That's pretty stunning both in delivery, and in vaccine development and production for a virus which was identified only just over a year ago.
It's hard not to be impressed but I have some niggling concerns.
I get the sense the vaccination rollout is perhaps inevitably uneven. In some areas, most of those in the top six or seven groups seem to have been vaccinated but in my part of the world (East London), I suspect the numbers are nowhere near so good.
Properly re-opening society and the economy requires all those at risk to be vaccinated - we can't do this if all the vulnerable in one part of the country have been vaccinated but in the next area they are still struggling to get through the last two or three groups.
I'd much prefer "surplus" supplies not to be used to vaccinate 40-somethings in one area if 60-somethings in another area aren't getting the vaccine.
I have to say the data on transmission is impressive. The fact the vaccination not only prevent you getting seriously ill from coronavirus but prevents you passing it on to those not vaccinated is a big plus irrespective of the above.
We still need evidence of the longer-term efficacy of the vaccines. Will they be as effective after 180 days as after 21 or 60? That will drive when and in what way the next phase of vaccinations needs to happen. Those who were vaccinated in December and January may wonder, if it becomes clear immunity eases after six months, what they will need to do to enjoy the summer.
- signs that the reduction in case numbers is levelling off in Scotland, Wales, the Midlands and North. Outside the south, estimated R rising back to 0.9
- evidence that a third of cases that test positive don’t have any of the ‘standard’ symptoms early in the infection, with tiredness, sore throat, headache and diarrhoea being the only symptoms.
I think it's fair game for political opponents to take potshots at each other, and if it's from someone's official account it's as good as from them, they've entrusted someone to do it.
I’m sure the Nats would react with calm equanimity if Johnson was to take potshots as the Scottish government’s various embarrassing moments.....
You mean he doesn't already? (at least in his perception).
I think it's fair game for political opponents to take potshots at each other, and if it's from someone's official account it's as good as from them, they've entrusted someone to do it.
I’m sure the Nats would react with calm equanimity if Johnson was to take potshots as the Scottish government’s various embarrassing moments.....
What does uncalm equanimity look like?
While of course BJ’s entire tenure has been characterised by an absence of potshots at the Scottish Nationalist Party and devolution, who could forget his crack about the lack of resilience in Scottish public services right at the start of his world beating performance in fighting Covid?
Properly re-opening society and the economy requires all those at risk to be vaccinated
BiB - No, it doesn't and it won't.
I'm assuming all those in the groups at highest risk will have been contacted and offered the vaccine - I'm not talking about those who for whatever reason have refused the vaccine.
Are you suggesting those areas where all those in the nine groups have been offered the vaccine should be allowed to open up while those areas where, for example, only the first five groups have been contacted, should not? That would be bringing back, in a different form admittedly, the hugely successful Tier system.
If we want an organised release of restrictions countrywide, we need to ensure those areas which are not rolling out the vaccination programme as effectively as others, are given whatever resources they need to close the gap.
So this raises aerosol transmission higher up the likelihood list?
Not necessarily - droplets rather than aerosols are still the principal source of transmission in all the literature I have read. That is not to say that there is no aerosol, or fomites, or faecal-oral transmission, just that the bulk of transmission seems to be from droplets.
The distinction between the two is rather artificial, though.
Properly re-opening society and the economy requires all those at risk to be vaccinated
BiB - No, it doesn't and it won't.
I'm assuming all those in the groups at highest risk will have been contacted and offered the vaccine - I'm not talking about those who for whatever reason have refused the vaccine.
Are you suggesting those areas where all those in the nine groups have been offered the vaccine should be allowed to open up while those areas where, for example, only the first five groups have been contacted, should not? That would be bringing back, in a different form admittedly, the hugely successful Tier system.
If we want an organised release of restrictions countrywide, we need to ensure those areas which are not rolling out the vaccination programme as effectively as others, are given whatever resources they need to close the gap.
Will there really be such disparity in delivery? It would require one area to have vaccinated all nine groups while another has only vaccinated five.
Properly re-opening society and the economy requires all those at risk to be vaccinated
BiB - No, it doesn't and it won't.
I'm assuming all those in the groups at highest risk will have been contacted and offered the vaccine - I'm not talking about those who for whatever reason have refused the vaccine.
Are you suggesting those areas where all those in the nine groups have been offered the vaccine should be allowed to open up while those areas where, for example, only the first five groups have been contacted, should not? That would be bringing back, in a different form admittedly, the hugely successful Tier system.
If we want an organised release of restrictions countrywide, we need to ensure those areas which are not rolling out the vaccination programme as effectively as others, are given whatever resources they need to close the gap.
Once the impact of COVID on the NHS is relatively small (how small is up for debate), then it's back to normal.
Looking at @Malmesbury red column of shame, Leicester is going to be on the naughty step for a while. Indeed even the leafy parts of Leics are keeping numbers up (I think Harborough has a jail outbreak too). If we are waiting to have thousand case days, Leics should be able to manage on our own 🙄
We all know where there's muck there's brass. So surely dogshit must be good for something?
What I can't fathom is people who put it in a bag, hang it on a bush and then just leave it. I mean what. the. f***.
Apparently it was used by tanners, to tan leather. My source is a Terry Pratchett book, but I think he usually did his research for this sort of thing.
It was. The finest gloves, oddly enough.
Even more oddly it was called 'pure' in the trade.
Another reason to allow leaflet distribution is that elections are going to be complicated this year. Parties will have to inform voters of which elections are being held, how many seats are up for election, how many candidates you can vote for, and which are the candidates to vote for. On another matter strange events in Liverpool. The Labour party have started re-interviewing the 3 people ( all women) who have been short-listed for Mayoral candidate. All three are associated with disgraced Mayor Joe Anderson. I suspect a central party intervention may be due. It also appears that an independent investigation into Liverpool council is expected to report shortly.
Earlier today, Merseyside Police applied to magistrates for a bail extension til August. I haven't seen anything yet, which suggests they were successful.
Will there really be such disparity in delivery? It would require one area to have vaccinated all nine groups while another has only vaccinated five.
I've no firm evidence for this and I'd like to see some evidence as to numbers contacted in each group and numbers taking the vaccine in each group across the country so we can see not only which areas are conducting the vaccination rollout most successfully but potential issues in terms of vaccine take up.
My anecdotal evidence among my circle is while I am still waiting for any invitation to attend for a vaccination, those younger than me in other areas have already received their first vaccine dose.
We all know where there's muck there's brass. So surely dogshit must be good for something?
What I can't fathom is people who put it in a bag, hang it on a bush and then just leave it. I mean what. the. f***.
Apparently it was used by tanners, to tan leather. My source is a Terry Pratchett book, but I think he usually did his research for this sort of thing.
It was. The finest gloves, oddly enough.
Even more oddly it was called 'pure' in the trade.
The amount of dogs per person in the UK, and the relative willingness of Brits to scoop it and take it to a bin (I am comparing to Nice in France, where the populace took great delight in leaving it all over the pavement) should give us a 'world beating' industry!
My experience with canvassing houses with no canvassing stickers is almost perfectly to a man (almost always an older man) they open the door see you are a salesman (or technically canvasser) and do an exaggerated point to the sticker on the door saying no canvassers whilst looking at you sternly.
Then you say my mistake didn't see it and canvass them anyway....
Then they complain to the local party office or tell you to sod off...
Indeed or in my case I was going to vote for their party , then they knocked despite such a sticker and they then forfeited that vote
Unbelievable. At 4.22, I opined specifically that nobody in real life is actually enough of a Victor Meldrew sourpuss to react like this. Now here comes you to prove me wrong.
And it had to be you, didn't it? Had to be you or that other guru of grim, @another_richard.
In this case you are wrong.
I'd love to be visited by a local canvasser so I could ask how things were going.
Will there really be such disparity in delivery? It would require one area to have vaccinated all nine groups while another has only vaccinated five.
I've no firm evidence for this and I'd like to see some evidence as to numbers contacted in each group and numbers taking the vaccine in each group across the country so we can see not only which areas are conducting the vaccination rollout most successfully but potential issues in terms of vaccine take up.
My anecdotal evidence among my circle is while I am still waiting for any invitation to attend for a vaccination, those younger than me in other areas have already received their first vaccine dose.
There was a chart posted on here a day or so ago showing that vaccination in the different age groups above 70 was even in all regions except London.
Looking at @Malmesbury red column of shame, Leicester is going to be on the naughty step for a while. Indeed even the leafy parts of Leics are keeping numbers up (I think Harborough has a jail outbreak too). If we are waiting to have thousand case days, Leics should be able to manage on our own 🙄
Not sure Rutland will appreciate being lumped in with Leicestershire?! Isn’t that its former colonial oppressor?
Looking at @Malmesbury red column of shame, Leicester is going to be on the naughty step for a while. Indeed even the leafy parts of Leics are keeping numbers up (I think Harborough has a jail outbreak too). If we are waiting to have thousand case days, Leics should be able to manage on our own 🙄
Not sure Rutland will appreciate being lumped in with Leicestershire?! Isn’t that its former colonial oppressor?
I must notify @HYUFD of their secessionist tendencies!
Political leaflets go in the bin almost always. Admittedly I think I have somewhere a leaflet from the Natural Law Party - it was filled with nonsense but very hard maths - I sort of have it on my list to work out that it was nonsense.
I will say though that the LDs are pushing in London, and the simple identification of that as the leaflet goes in to the bin might just give them something.
More people running out of patience with lockdown, it would seem.
Police forces have reported an increase in large illegal lockdown parties in recent weeks, as streams of reports from members of the public expose popup events organised in secret via social media.
“We’re coming across bigger events at the moment,” said Stuart Bill, the bronze commander for Operation Reliant, a dedicated West Midlands police taskforce for tackling significant Covid breaches. “We’re seeing house parties and events in warehouses and derelict buildings, but finding them can be tricky.
“Organisers are sophisticated, they’re alive to the fact we will monitor social media, so [they promote] on closed platforms like Snapchat and WhatsApp. Most of our intelligence comes from the public.”
Though Starmer will be somewhat encouraged too by the fact 21% of 2019 Tory voters have a favourable opinion of him but only 8% of 2019 Labour voters and 13% of 2019 LD voters have a favourable opinion of Boris
Politico.com - Playbook "There is something refreshingly normal about the TED CRUZ scandal."
"The drama of Cruz returning from sunny Mexico — chastened and apologetic for fleeing Texas while 3 million of his constituents remained without power — was a kind of throwback to an era when politicians could be embarrassed.
The Trump years were dominated by one figure defined by his inability to be shamed and supporters defined by their unwillingness to be outraged by his behavior.
A lot of observers wondered if the age of political scandal was dead — if partisans on both sides were so defined by hatred of their rival political tribe that they would let their own leaders get away with just about anything.
And then a bearded man appearing to be Cruz was photographed with a roller bag at the United counter at Houston’s George Bush Intercontinental Airport ready to board a plane to Cancun.
The best and worst of the internet was activated: Twitter sleuths fired up their airline apps and learned Cruz seemed to be on an upgrade list for the flight. The bearded man appeared to be wearing the same gray “Come and take it” mask Cruz favors. (The mask celebrates the Texas revolution against Mexico.) The Houston police leaked that they escorted Cruz through the airport.
In the pictures that flooded social media, one could detect Cruz’s growing alarm. He clutched his phone with a look of worry in an airport lounge and again on board the plane in coach (he didn’t get the upgrade). He later confirmed what was suggested by the photos: He was closely following the growing storm of criticism in real time. . . .
After an overnight silence, Cruz seemed to blame the trip on his two daughters, 10 and 12, who he said in a statement just wanted a respite from the cold. He hinted, without outright saying, that his plan was only to drop them off in Cancun and return right away.
Bad idea. The spin backfired.
He was hounded by reporters and photographers from the moment he pulled up to the Cancun Airport in a white SUV and Ritz-Carlton escort until he landed back at the Houston airport where protesters held up signs . . .
He dropped the phony excuse and went with mostly contrition, admitting that he was planning on staying until the weekend. “Really from the moment I sat on the plane, I began really second-guessing that decision, and saying, ‘Look, I know why we’re doing this, but I’ve also got responsibilities,’” he told one reporter. “And it had been my intention to be able to work remotely, to be on the phone, to be on the internet, to be on Zoom, to be engaged, but I needed to be here and that’s why I came back."
The tabloid outrage of the social media mobs had the intended effect: Cruz proved that the capacity for embarrassment still exists in American politics."
Ah "Sturgeon celebrates election of 27 year old cancer survivor in the wrong way" discourse.
I have nothing against her celebrating either that or the defeat of Swinson. Both are entirely justified.
Lets not pretend that decapitating the Lib Dems didn't play into her reaction. It would be weirdly robotic if she didn't take pleasure from that, there's something human and passionate about schadenfreude.
Is it news to you that Sturgeon would engage in schadenfreude?
I'm with those who never saw anything wrong with her celebrating the defeat of an opponent. Not particularly gracious, but sometimes the more gracious reactions can come off as weird and scripted.
The 'surge testing' for new variants seems to have stopped.
And we've heard nothing about what they found across the road from where I live. All very strange.
No news is good news. Local (Bristol) surge found 1% positivity. No report on whether any of the 1% had the worrying variant, but again no news is probably good news.
I'm working on the assumption that the drop off in testing is a consequence of lower prevalence all over the country, and a resultant drop in demand. The latest ONS estimate for the number of infected persons in England has, IIRC, declined from 1 in 80 to 1 in 115 in a week. In Kent, where the infamous variant originated, cases in eleven of thirteen local authority areas are now under 100 per 100k per week; in Canterbury and in Tonbridge, the most recent estimates of the rate are actually slightly lower than that in Cornwall.
There's plenty of electoral practices in america that I might not think are good ideas, but which are widely accepted and practiced there so it's fine, so when restrictive measures are brought in it is hard sometimes to think of the non sinister explanation that is presumably used as an excuse.
I'm working on the assumption the the drop off in testing is a consequence of lower prevalence all over the country, and a resultant drop in demand. The latest ONS estimate for the number of infected persons in England has, IIRC, declined from 1 in 80 to 1 in 115 in a week. In Kent, where the infamous variant originated, cases in eleven of thirteen local authority areas are now under 100 per 100k per week; in Canterbury and in Tonbridge, the most recent estimates of the rate are actually slightly lower than that in Cornwall.
Yep I think that’s right. However we have added in lateral flow tests to the mix and these are being used in a different way to the symptom based per tests. I’d suggest we are catching many more asymptomatic cases than say 6 months ago, one reason why the cases are perhaps stalling a bit. Parts of the country, e.g. Devon seem to have all but eliminated the virus again. I hope the rest of the country swiftly follows, but it still needs us to stiffen our resolve for a few more weeks, and some are finding that very hard indeed, or have never bothered at all.
Peach State's finest seg-academy graduates clearly counting on Trumpsky-McConnell judicial nexus having effectively neutered the 14th amendment, thus short-circuiting federal court action in defense of the right to vote.
Congress have the authority to end this horseshit, by establishing national requirements and standards for early voting in FEDERAL elections.
"About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection."
Political leaflets go in the bin almost always. Admittedly I think I have somewhere a leaflet from the Natural Law Party - it was filled with nonsense but very hard maths - I sort of have it on my list to work out that it was nonsense.
I will say though that the LDs are pushing in London, and the simple identification of that as the leaflet goes in to the bin might just give them something.
I believe that at least 90% of all political leaflets have a life span of about five seconds as they travel from the front door letterbox to the recycling bin.
But in those five seconds, many will register that it is a LibDem leaflet and that reinforces the message of "LibDems working here" and "It's a two horse race" and that is key.
We all know where there's muck there's brass. So surely dogshit must be good for something?
What I can't fathom is people who put it in a bag, hang it on a bush and then just leave it. I mean what. the. f***.
Apparently it was used by tanners, to tan leather. My source is a Terry Pratchett book, but I think he usually did his research for this sort of thing.
It was. The finest gloves, oddly enough.
Even more oddly it was called 'pure' in the trade.
The amount of dogs per person in the UK, and the relative willingness of Brits to scoop it and take it to a bin (I am comparing to Nice in France, where the populace took great delight in leaving it all over the pavement) should give us a 'world beating' industry!
Yes, but whos' going to rub it into the leather by hand? All those Brexiter voters who turn up their noses (well, quite) at British jobs for British workers, so Mr Johnson is quietly importing labour from the poorer parts of the EU?
Amazing increase in life expectancy in a century. If I'd been born back then I'd probably be dead now.
It always amazes me that since I was born in 1965 male average life expectancy has gone up by around 1.75 days for every week I have lived.
That stat gave me one of my favourite intros to the talks I used to give about pensions. I’d start by saying that I’d be taking for about an hour, and while I couldn’t guarantee that by the end some of them wouldn’t be thinking that this was an hour of their life they wouldn’t be seeing again, they could console themselves with the fact that, by the time I sat down, average life expectancy would be 15 minutes longer than it is right now. (at one point it was up to 20 minutes), which they could think of as a kind of cashback.
If I was feeling particularly mischievous I’d go on to point out that they were probably exchanging an hour when they could be doing something much more stimulating for an extra 15 minutes sitting in a chair covered by a blanket.
Either way, it got their attention, and focused minds in the biggest challenge facing pensions finance.
Political leaflets go in the bin almost always. Admittedly I think I have somewhere a leaflet from the Natural Law Party - it was filled with nonsense but very hard maths - I sort of have it on my list to work out that it was nonsense.
I will say though that the LDs are pushing in London, and the simple identification of that as the leaflet goes in to the bin might just give them something.
Back in the day I turned a safe Tory ward into a LibDem stronghold and proceeded to be elected six times running over a twenty four year period. It was leaflets that did it, every time.
"About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection."
How is the Covid-19 infection fatality rate determined?
Ah "Sturgeon celebrates election of 27 year old cancer survivor in the wrong way" discourse.
In the Venn diagram of LDs who had a prolapse over Sturgeon’s celebrations and those who have maintained a ‘dignified’ silence over an MSP telling a female MSP to fuck off, I wonder how many would be in the intersection of those two groups?
"About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection."
Let's examine this conclusion. Now, others with a better knowledge of the figures than I have will be able to confirm this, but I suspect that if the ONS surveillance program had revealed that so many Britons had been infected asymptomatically that we were similarly close to herd immunity (and there's every reason to suppose that UK and US infection rates oughtn't to be a million miles apart, given how badly we've both been hit,) then wouldn't this be obvious from the figures, and the conclusion have been widely disseminated, by now?
Alternatively, might it therefore be possible that the percentage of the population that is invulnerable to the illness for reasons other than past infection (for example, if they have protection conferred by encounters with other coronaviruses, or if there's something else about their biology that simply makes it hard for Covid-19 to attack them) is really rather high? This is a new disease and the boffins' knowledge of it is still far from complete.
EDIT: of course, another obvious explanation is that the IFR that your Twitterer has quoted is simply too low...
Political leaflets go in the bin almost always. Admittedly I think I have somewhere a leaflet from the Natural Law Party - it was filled with nonsense but very hard maths - I sort of have it on my list to work out that it was nonsense.
I will say though that the LDs are pushing in London, and the simple identification of that as the leaflet goes in to the bin might just give them something.
The Tories have put out a 4*A4 leaflet in Waverley I think paid through Royal Mail and therefore legal. They presumably reckon the average voter won't be aware of the controversy and will just think "Heard from the Tories, nothing from the others". They may be right. I live in a safe Tory division, so who knows what they're up to in marginals?
My outrage has been blunted by Trump, contract favouritism, voter suppression by ID requirements and all the rest of it. I now basically expect conservatives in the US and UK to cheat, in a way that their counterparts in, say, Germany, would not dream of. Sorry if that sounds offensive - I have Tory and Republican friends, but their parties are now disreputable, so we talk of other things.
Amazing increase in life expectancy in a century. If I'd been born back then I'd probably be dead now.
It always amazes me that since I was born in 1965 male average life expectancy has gone up by around 1.75 days for every week I have lived.
That stat gave me one of my favourite intros to the talks I used to give about pensions. I’d start by saying that I’d be taking for about an hour, and while I couldn’t guarantee that by the end some of them wouldn’t be thinking that this was an hour of their life they wouldn’t be seeing again, they could console themselves with the fact that, by the time I sat down, average life expectancy would be 15 minutes longer than it is right now. (at one point it was up to 20 minutes), which they could think of as a kind of cashback.
If I was feeling particularly mischievous I’d go on to point out that they were probably exchanging an hour when they could be doing something much more stimulating for an extra 15 minutes sitting in a chair covered by a blanket.
Either way, it got their attention, and focused minds in the biggest challenge facing pensions finance.
It has rather stalled more recently, even pre-covid.
Has it ever been proven that political leaflets have an effect, anymore so than junk mail
Of course door knocking is a different matter but in our 'neighbourhood watch area' you cannot even do that
It is interesting. Certainly we put a lot of effort into the leafletting work during the referendum campaign. Not sure if it was wasted or not but the leaflets certainly got a lot of air time with claims and counterclaims about what was on them.
For a GE I think probably they don't make that much difference to most people. For local elections I think they do. There I believe people are far less likely to be following party allegiances and more voting for the individual and what they are saying they will do in power. I certainly pay a lot of attention to what I can find out about the candidates and much of the time it is only the leaflets that give you that information.
So yes, personally I think they do make a difference.
They surely must otherwise no-one would bother. Law of averages, I'm thinking. Send out 1000, impact maybe 15 votes. That's 15 more than if you sent none. There is the odd perverse sort who will claim that all the bumph loses their vote but I think that's mainly performative Victor Meldrew cosplay rather than the actual truth.
As for me, a really good Tory leaflet can get me thinking and asking myself the question - "Can they really be so bad if they can produce such a quality piece of campaign material?"
It's yet to change my vote but it causes a flash of discomfort which I could happily do without.
Tell us some of your own canvassing stories. How was Glenda as a candidate?
By the time I joined the party and volunteered to do stuff it was Tulip. But then I didn't actually do anything much because - and this is totally and poignantly true - I came down with a virus. Not Covid, but quite a nasty affair that hit hard and lingered. A great pity because I was up for it and I think I might have been able to strike a chord with some.
if you came to my manor and started quoting your Woke Crap I'd hit you with a bull's pizzle until you boaked
"About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection."
It’s the Wall Street Journal FFS and their opinion pieces should not be regarded as being unbiased in any way. Also the paragraph about Maneas in Brazil is plain wrong. Nevertheless there have been similar declines in both California (stay at home order) and Texas (no stay at home order) as well as Florida. And the global decline I have been banging on about in a wide variety of places from Ontario to South Africa.
Political leaflets go in the bin almost always. Admittedly I think I have somewhere a leaflet from the Natural Law Party - it was filled with nonsense but very hard maths - I sort of have it on my list to work out that it was nonsense.
I will say though that the LDs are pushing in London, and the simple identification of that as the leaflet goes in to the bin might just give them something.
The Tories have put out a 4*A4 leaflet in Waverley I think paid through Royal Mail and therefore legal. They presumably reckon the average voter won't be aware of the controversy and will just think "Heard from the Tories, nothing from the others". They may be right. I live in a safe Tory division, so who knows what they're up to in marginals?
My outrage has been blunted by Trump, contract favouritism, voter suppression by ID requirements and all the rest of it. I now basically expect conservatives in the US and UK to cheat, in a way that their counterparts in, say, Germany, would not dream of. Sorry if that sounds offensive - I have Tory and Republican friends, but their parties are now disreputable, so we talk of other things.
I'm a Tory and I'd never cheat anyone.
What was the 'controversy'?
Cheer up eh. You're easily one of my favourite people on PB. We'll never agree, but I'll certainly always listen.
"About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection."
Let's examine this conclusion. Now, others with a better knowledge of the figures than I have will be able to confirm this, but I suspect that if the ONS surveillance program had revealed that so many Britons had been infected asymptomatically that we were similarly close to herd immunity (and there's every reason to suppose that UK and US infection rates oughtn't to be a million miles apart, given how badly we've both been hit,) then wouldn't this be obvious from the figures, and the conclusion have been widely disseminated, by now?
Alternatively, might it therefore be possible that the percentage of the population that is invulnerable to the illness for reasons other than past infection (for example, if they have protection conferred by encounters with other coronaviruses, or if there's something else about their biology that simply makes it hard for Covid-19 to attack them) is really rather high? This is a new disease and the boffins' knowledge of it is still far from complete.
EDIT: of course, another obvious explanation is that the IFR that your Twitterer has quoted is simply too low...
Now, who remembers the Handelstwatt controversy and the apparent misquoting of the 8% figure?
In this case, the 0.23% IFR looks suspiciously identical to this learned estimate from October...
The COVID infection fatality ratio is around 1% in high-income countries, but substantially lower in low-income countries with younger populations.
These are the findings of a new report from the Imperial College London COVID-19 Response Team.
The report reveals that:
In high income countries, the estimated overall infection fatality ratio (IFR) is 1.15% (95% prediction interval 0.78-1.79).
In low-income countries, the estimated overall IFR is 0.23% (95% prediction interval 0.14-0.42).
Run the same simple maths as the Twitterer did using the high income estimate instead, and the proportion of Americans who might be thought to have had the virus drops to 13%, which is some considerable distance from "herd immunity"...
That, I'm afraid, is what seems to have happened here. Crap maths. Easily done. I've been guilty of it myself more than once during this saga.
Political leaflets go in the bin almost always. Admittedly I think I have somewhere a leaflet from the Natural Law Party - it was filled with nonsense but very hard maths - I sort of have it on my list to work out that it was nonsense.
I will say though that the LDs are pushing in London, and the simple identification of that as the leaflet goes in to the bin might just give them something.
The Tories have put out a 4*A4 leaflet in Waverley I think paid through Royal Mail and therefore legal. They presumably reckon the average voter won't be aware of the controversy and will just think "Heard from the Tories, nothing from the others". They may be right. I live in a safe Tory division, so who knows what they're up to in marginals?
My outrage has been blunted by Trump, contract favouritism, voter suppression by ID requirements and all the rest of it. I now basically expect conservatives in the US and UK to cheat, in a way that their counterparts in, say, Germany, would not dream of. Sorry if that sounds offensive - I have Tory and Republican friends, but their parties are now disreputable, so we talk of other things.
Your paragraphs confuse me - you say they've done something you describe as legal, but use that as an assumption they are engaging in cheating elsewhere on the basis of 'who knows what they're up to'?
Political leaflets go in the bin almost always. Admittedly I think I have somewhere a leaflet from the Natural Law Party - it was filled with nonsense but very hard maths - I sort of have it on my list to work out that it was nonsense.
I will say though that the LDs are pushing in London, and the simple identification of that as the leaflet goes in to the bin might just give them something.
The Tories have put out a 4*A4 leaflet in Waverley I think paid through Royal Mail and therefore legal. They presumably reckon the average voter won't be aware of the controversy and will just think "Heard from the Tories, nothing from the others". They may be right. I live in a safe Tory division, so who knows what they're up to in marginals?
My outrage has been blunted by Trump, contract favouritism, voter suppression by ID requirements and all the rest of it. I now basically expect conservatives in the US and UK to cheat, in a way that their counterparts in, say, Germany, would not dream of. Sorry if that sounds offensive - I have Tory and Republican friends, but their parties are now disreputable, so we talk of other things.
We had a large glossy 2 sided leaflet from the Liberal Democrats this week. LDs are hand delivering, Tories are delivering commercially, maybe only Labour is sitting it out until lockdown ends?
"About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection."
Let's examine this conclusion. Now, others with a better knowledge of the figures than I have will be able to confirm this, but I suspect that if the ONS surveillance program had revealed that so many Britons had been infected asymptomatically that we were similarly close to herd immunity (and there's every reason to suppose that UK and US infection rates oughtn't to be a million miles apart, given how badly we've both been hit,) then wouldn't this be obvious from the figures, and the conclusion have been widely disseminated, by now?
Alternatively, might it therefore be possible that the percentage of the population that is invulnerable to the illness for reasons other than past infection (for example, if they have protection conferred by encounters with other coronaviruses, or if there's something else about their biology that simply makes it hard for Covid-19 to attack them) is really rather high? This is a new disease and the boffins' knowledge of it is still far from complete.
EDIT: of course, another obvious explanation is that the IFR that your Twitterer has quoted is simply too low...
Now, who remembers the Handelstwatt controversy and the apparent misquoting of the 8% figure?
In this case, the 0.23% IFR looks suspiciously identical to this learned estimate from October...
The COVID infection fatality ratio is around 1% in high-income countries, but substantially lower in low-income countries with younger populations.
These are the findings of a new report from the Imperial College London COVID-19 Response Team.
The report reveals that:
In high income countries, the estimated overall infection fatality ratio (IFR) is 1.15% (95% prediction interval 0.78-1.79).
In low-income countries, the estimated overall IFR is 0.23% (95% prediction interval 0.14-0.42).
Run the same simple maths as the Twitterer did using the high income estimate instead, and the proportion of Americans who might be thought to have had the virus drops to 13%, which is some considerable distance from "herd immunity"...
That, I'm afraid, is what seems to have happened here. Crap maths. Easily done. I've been guilty of it myself more than once during this saga.
Something genuinely interesting going on in India.
"The IFR is 0.23%" Which means that 78% of the UK had had the virus by late January, which would be a bit of a relief.
They're repeating the now-comprehensively-disproven assertion that cross-reactivity with seasonal cold coronaviruses provides natural immunity - it doesn't. If anything, it may make infections slightly worse if your T-cells remember too many such infections.
It's written by a surgeon, not an immunologist, epidemiologist, or virologist, which is often a red flag for op-ed pieces on covid.
There's plenty of positive news around, but this is, unfortunately, bollocks. Fortunately, we don't need to rely on Yeadon-esque made-up hidden immunity or arithmetically impossible IFRs. We're actually on the way out, anyway, with 30% of adults vaccinated and the rest of us coming up soon.
Classy.....expressing the selfish sentiment in French....
Even in the early weeks of the pandemic, I hope that we in the UK resisted the temptations of a sauve qui peut approach and tried to keep the flame of global cooperation alive.
Political leaflets go in the bin almost always. Admittedly I think I have somewhere a leaflet from the Natural Law Party - it was filled with nonsense but very hard maths - I sort of have it on my list to work out that it was nonsense.
I will say though that the LDs are pushing in London, and the simple identification of that as the leaflet goes in to the bin might just give them something.
The Tories have put out a 4*A4 leaflet in Waverley I think paid through Royal Mail and therefore legal. They presumably reckon the average voter won't be aware of the controversy and will just think "Heard from the Tories, nothing from the others". They may be right. I live in a safe Tory division, so who knows what they're up to in marginals?
My outrage has been blunted by Trump, contract favouritism, voter suppression by ID requirements and all the rest of it. I now basically expect conservatives in the US and UK to cheat, in a way that their counterparts in, say, Germany, would not dream of. Sorry if that sounds offensive - I have Tory and Republican friends, but their parties are now disreputable, so we talk of other things.
I am hopelessly behind the curve on this one. Since when have political leaflets been illegal? I seem to remember that the Lib Dems normally have one quarterly, somewhat loosely disguised as a free newspaper. Surely most controversy over leaflets is whether or not the sponsor's details are honest & correct.
"About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection."
Let's examine this conclusion. Now, others with a better knowledge of the figures than I have will be able to confirm this, but I suspect that if the ONS surveillance program had revealed that so many Britons had been infected asymptomatically that we were similarly close to herd immunity (and there's every reason to suppose that UK and US infection rates oughtn't to be a million miles apart, given how badly we've both been hit,) then wouldn't this be obvious from the figures, and the conclusion have been widely disseminated, by now?
Alternatively, might it therefore be possible that the percentage of the population that is invulnerable to the illness for reasons other than past infection (for example, if they have protection conferred by encounters with other coronaviruses, or if there's something else about their biology that simply makes it hard for Covid-19 to attack them) is really rather high? This is a new disease and the boffins' knowledge of it is still far from complete.
EDIT: of course, another obvious explanation is that the IFR that your Twitterer has quoted is simply too low...
Now, who remembers the Handelstwatt controversy and the apparent misquoting of the 8% figure?
In this case, the 0.23% IFR looks suspiciously identical to this learned estimate from October...
The COVID infection fatality ratio is around 1% in high-income countries, but substantially lower in low-income countries with younger populations.
These are the findings of a new report from the Imperial College London COVID-19 Response Team.
The report reveals that:
In high income countries, the estimated overall infection fatality ratio (IFR) is 1.15% (95% prediction interval 0.78-1.79).
In low-income countries, the estimated overall IFR is 0.23% (95% prediction interval 0.14-0.42).
Run the same simple maths as the Twitterer did using the high income estimate instead, and the proportion of Americans who might be thought to have had the virus drops to 13%, which is some considerable distance from "herd immunity"...
That, I'm afraid, is what seems to have happened here. Crap maths. Easily done. I've been guilty of it myself more than once during this saga.
Something genuinely interesting going on in India.
You've got to wonder what the real figures are like, though. We know that they've been underreporting in India to a big degree - has that changed in degree at all? Or has something else changed? Would be very interesting to know for sure.
Agree with some of those things mentioned, the messaging on the vaccine has been really awful outside of the UK. The politicians seem to just want to nitpick about really minor things about all of them and advertise these tiny downsides but there seems to be no messaging on the huge, huge positives that all of the vaccines provide a very, very high level of protection against hospitalisation and death, as in above 99% within 3 weeks of one dose.
All of the politicians and media need to start repeating that over and over again all over the world. It should be the new "long term economic plan" that the Tories used to such great success. Stay on the same message.
Leaving aside the four-nation rivalry, we really should stop and wonder at the extraordinary fact that from a standing start on 8th December, we've now vaccinated about a third of all adults in the UK, including the majority of the most at-risk. That's pretty stunning both in delivery, and in vaccine development and production for a virus which was identified only just over a year ago.
It is a triumph and one that we may only fully appreciate in a few years time when we look back on all this. Given the pandemic is ongoing it is hard to recognise just what an extraordinary achievement it all is. But the UK is genuinely and unequivocally leading the world here in an entirely positive way. It is something that we should all feel pretty chuffed about. Intriguingly, it feeds into a diverse set of political belief systems as well. As a social democrat I feel that my faith in the state as a force for good is being totally vindicated; but I can also recognise the raw business skill and Tory government foresight that allowed it all to happen. Only the terminally partisan would disagree ;-)
Well said.
As a rightwinger I confess the handling of the vaccinatons has - somewhat - warmed me to the idea of the NHS. I really is good at this stuff (tho Israel is better - if we want to reform it, Israel could be a model)
At the same time it has reaffirmed my belief in entrepreneurial vigour. A boss with a brain & a backbone can do things pathetic lefty committees will never achieve.
The issue I have is that I am genuinely curious about the recent global drop driven by similar falls in a wide variety of places. I think you can rule our seasonality when trying to link similar drops in SA and Ontario. NPI’s in Texas and in England have been very different. God knows what’s happening in Mexico. But there has been a sharp decline in all of those places. Maybe some evil mastermind in a dormant volcano somewhere flicked a switch. Maybe it really is NPI’s. Or maybe the virus has, globally, picked off its low hanging fruit and is starting to struggle.
This discussion will probably be moot in a week when cases shoot back up again.
"About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection."
Let's examine this conclusion. Now, others with a better knowledge of the figures than I have will be able to confirm this, but I suspect that if the ONS surveillance program had revealed that so many Britons had been infected asymptomatically that we were similarly close to herd immunity (and there's every reason to suppose that UK and US infection rates oughtn't to be a million miles apart, given how badly we've both been hit,) then wouldn't this be obvious from the figures, and the conclusion have been widely disseminated, by now?
Alternatively, might it therefore be possible that the percentage of the population that is invulnerable to the illness for reasons other than past infection (for example, if they have protection conferred by encounters with other coronaviruses, or if there's something else about their biology that simply makes it hard for Covid-19 to attack them) is really rather high? This is a new disease and the boffins' knowledge of it is still far from complete.
EDIT: of course, another obvious explanation is that the IFR that your Twitterer has quoted is simply too low...
Now, who remembers the Handelstwatt controversy and the apparent misquoting of the 8% figure?
In this case, the 0.23% IFR looks suspiciously identical to this learned estimate from October...
The COVID infection fatality ratio is around 1% in high-income countries, but substantially lower in low-income countries with younger populations.
These are the findings of a new report from the Imperial College London COVID-19 Response Team.
The report reveals that:
In high income countries, the estimated overall infection fatality ratio (IFR) is 1.15% (95% prediction interval 0.78-1.79).
In low-income countries, the estimated overall IFR is 0.23% (95% prediction interval 0.14-0.42).
Run the same simple maths as the Twitterer did using the high income estimate instead, and the proportion of Americans who might be thought to have had the virus drops to 13%, which is some considerable distance from "herd immunity"...
That, I'm afraid, is what seems to have happened here. Crap maths. Easily done. I've been guilty of it myself more than once during this saga.
Something genuinely interesting going on in India.
(1) Antibody tests show that around one-in-ten Americans (or maybe a little less) have had CV19. So, unless you think there is massive selection bias in those taking those tests, you have to explain why they're not picking up 50+% of Americans having had it.
(2) If the US as a whole was reaching herd immunity, you would expect places which had been particularly hard hit in round one (like New York) would have been essentially immune in round two. That has not happened. (And you might use Northern Italy as a corollary.)
(3) There is a simple natural cycle here - which is true of *all* infectious diseases - where people limit social interactions they are afraid of getting infected. Look at the UK right now, despite vaccinations cutting into the number of infectible people the pace of decline in cases is falling. Why? Because levels of social interaction is key.
"About 1 in 600 Americans has died of Covid-19, which translates to a population fatality rate of about 0.15%. The Covid-19 infection fatality rate is about 0.23%. These numbers indicate that roughly two-thirds of the U.S. population has had the infection."
Let's examine this conclusion. Now, others with a better knowledge of the figures than I have will be able to confirm this, but I suspect that if the ONS surveillance program had revealed that so many Britons had been infected asymptomatically that we were similarly close to herd immunity (and there's every reason to suppose that UK and US infection rates oughtn't to be a million miles apart, given how badly we've both been hit,) then wouldn't this be obvious from the figures, and the conclusion have been widely disseminated, by now?
Alternatively, might it therefore be possible that the percentage of the population that is invulnerable to the illness for reasons other than past infection (for example, if they have protection conferred by encounters with other coronaviruses, or if there's something else about their biology that simply makes it hard for Covid-19 to attack them) is really rather high? This is a new disease and the boffins' knowledge of it is still far from complete.
EDIT: of course, another obvious explanation is that the IFR that your Twitterer has quoted is simply too low...
I have no idea whether this piece stands up. I'd be surprised, but maybe there's something in it. Undoubtedly the virus has been massively knocked back in 2021. In both north and south hemispheres, height of summer and depths of winter. We are scrabbling round for explanations. Someone will find it.
Comments
from case data
from hospitalisation data
While of course BJ’s entire tenure has been characterised by an absence of potshots at the Scottish Nationalist Party and devolution, who could forget his crack about the lack of resilience in Scottish public services right at the start of his world beating performance in fighting Covid?
Are you suggesting those areas where all those in the nine groups have been offered the vaccine should be allowed to open up while those areas where, for example, only the first five groups have been contacted, should not? That would be bringing back, in a different form admittedly, the hugely successful Tier system.
If we want an organised release of restrictions countrywide, we need to ensure those areas which are not rolling out the vaccination programme as effectively as others, are given whatever resources they need to close the gap.
Dying of COVID? Bad luck.
Looking at @Malmesbury red column of shame, Leicester is going to be on the naughty step for a while. Indeed even the leafy parts of Leics are keeping numbers up (I think Harborough has a jail outbreak too). If we are waiting to have thousand case days, Leics should be able to manage on our own 🙄
My anecdotal evidence among my circle is while I am still waiting for any invitation to attend for a vaccination, those younger than me in other areas have already received their first vaccine dose.
The amount of dogs per person in the UK, and the relative willingness of Brits to scoop it and take it to a bin (I am comparing to Nice in France, where the populace took great delight in leaving it all over the pavement) should give us a 'world beating' industry!
I'd love to be visited by a local canvasser so I could ask how things were going.
Scottish Nationalist Party ✓
But something needs to be done ✓
Something = arglefarglebargle ✓
Reassert a British identity ✓
Shoo in for head of the union unit surely.
https://twitter.com/profjmitchell/status/1362832111800111106?s=21
They'd probably put my head in a guillotine
But it's alright, Ma, it's life, and life only…
I will say though that the LDs are pushing in London, and the simple identification of that as the leaflet goes in to the bin might just give them something.
Police forces have reported an increase in large illegal lockdown parties in recent weeks, as streams of reports from members of the public expose popup events organised in secret via social media.
“We’re coming across bigger events at the moment,” said Stuart Bill, the bronze commander for Operation Reliant, a dedicated West Midlands police taskforce for tackling significant Covid breaches. “We’re seeing house parties and events in warehouses and derelict buildings, but finding them can be tricky.
“Organisers are sophisticated, they’re alive to the fact we will monitor social media, so [they promote] on closed platforms like Snapchat and WhatsApp. Most of our intelligence comes from the public.”
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/feb/19/police-report-rise-in-large-covid-lockdown-parties-in-england
Comical cartoon evil bad guy.
https://twitter.com/AriBerman/status/1362761353598021633?s=19
https://twitter.com/jawillick/status/1362467794307198983
Dream Yoga.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dream_yoga
The 'surge testing' for new variants seems to have stopped.
"The drama of Cruz returning from sunny Mexico — chastened and apologetic for fleeing Texas while 3 million of his constituents remained without power — was a kind of throwback to an era when politicians could be embarrassed.
The Trump years were dominated by one figure defined by his inability to be shamed and supporters defined by their unwillingness to be outraged by his behavior.
A lot of observers wondered if the age of political scandal was dead — if partisans on both sides were so defined by hatred of their rival political tribe that they would let their own leaders get away with just about anything.
And then a bearded man appearing to be Cruz was photographed with a roller bag at the United counter at Houston’s George Bush Intercontinental Airport ready to board a plane to Cancun.
The best and worst of the internet was activated: Twitter sleuths fired up their airline apps and learned Cruz seemed to be on an upgrade list for the flight. The bearded man appeared to be wearing the same gray “Come and take it” mask Cruz favors. (The mask celebrates the Texas revolution against Mexico.) The Houston police leaked that they escorted Cruz through the airport.
In the pictures that flooded social media, one could detect Cruz’s growing alarm. He clutched his phone with a look of worry in an airport lounge and again on board the plane in coach (he didn’t get the upgrade). He later confirmed what was suggested by the photos: He was closely following the growing storm of criticism in real time. . . .
After an overnight silence, Cruz seemed to blame the trip on his two daughters, 10 and 12, who he said in a statement just wanted a respite from the cold. He hinted, without outright saying, that his plan was only to drop them off in Cancun and return right away.
Bad idea. The spin backfired.
He was hounded by reporters and photographers from the moment he pulled up to the Cancun Airport in a white SUV and Ritz-Carlton escort until he landed back at the Houston airport where protesters held up signs . . .
He dropped the phony excuse and went with mostly contrition, admitting that he was planning on staying until the weekend. “Really from the moment I sat on the plane, I began really second-guessing that decision, and saying, ‘Look, I know why we’re doing this, but I’ve also got responsibilities,’” he told one reporter. “And it had been my intention to be able to work remotely, to be on the phone, to be on the internet, to be on Zoom, to be engaged, but I needed to be here and that’s why I came back."
The tabloid outrage of the social media mobs had the intended effect: Cruz proved that the capacity for embarrassment still exists in American politics."
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2021/02/19/reince-reemerges-as-cruz-crashes-491811
Lets not pretend that decapitating the Lib Dems didn't play into her reaction. It would be weirdly robotic if she didn't take pleasure from that, there's something human and passionate about schadenfreude.
Well now it becomes clear to me.
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/surge-testing-for-new-coronavirus-covid-19-variants#locations-using-surge-testing
In at least one active location (Diss in Norfolk) it is reported as having started today:
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-england-norfolk-56127829
I'm working on the assumption that the drop off in testing is a consequence of lower prevalence all over the country, and a resultant drop in demand. The latest ONS estimate for the number of infected persons in England has, IIRC, declined from 1 in 80 to 1 in 115 in a week. In Kent, where the infamous variant originated, cases in eleven of thirteen local authority areas are now under 100 per 100k per week; in Canterbury and in Tonbridge, the most recent estimates of the rate are actually slightly lower than that in Cornwall.
Congress have the authority to end this horseshit, by establishing national requirements and standards for early voting in FEDERAL elections.
Good on her for celebrating victory.
Why shouldn’t she FFS?
Thank goodness we still have a self-perpetuating elite to tell us what to do, eh?
But in those five seconds, many will register that it is a LibDem leaflet and that reinforces the message of "LibDems working here" and "It's a two horse race" and that is key.
(*thought not)
You have to hand it to Radio 1 - shite all week, superb on Friday nights.
If I was feeling particularly mischievous I’d go on to point out that they were probably exchanging an hour when they could be doing something much more stimulating for an extra 15 minutes sitting in a chair covered by a blanket.
Either way, it got their attention, and focused minds in the biggest challenge facing pensions finance.
I don't really understand why it should happen now.
Whatever the reason it has to be bad news for SKS.
Alternatively, might it therefore be possible that the percentage of the population that is invulnerable to the illness for reasons other than past infection (for example, if they have protection conferred by encounters with other coronaviruses, or if there's something else about their biology that simply makes it hard for Covid-19 to attack them) is really rather high? This is a new disease and the boffins' knowledge of it is still far from complete.
EDIT: of course, another obvious explanation is that the IFR that your Twitterer has quoted is simply too low...
My outrage has been blunted by Trump, contract favouritism, voter suppression by ID requirements and all the rest of it. I now basically expect conservatives in the US and UK to cheat, in a way that their counterparts in, say, Germany, would not dream of. Sorry if that sounds offensive - I have Tory and Republican friends, but their parties are now disreputable, so we talk of other things.
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/feb/24/austerity-blamed-for-life-expectancy-stalling-for-first-time-in-century
Are there any published stats of random antibody test positivity rates?
And do those tests give a positive result for those who have been vaccinated (presumably, yes)?
Evening all!
https://twitter.com/DPMcBride/status/1362860970335481859?s=20
https://twitter.com/WhiteHouse/status/1362858860617236480?s=20
https://twitter.com/robcrilly/status/1362859077576110080?s=20
What was the 'controversy'?
Cheer up eh. You're easily one of my favourite people on PB. We'll never agree, but I'll certainly always listen.
In this case, the 0.23% IFR looks suspiciously identical to this learned estimate from October...
The COVID infection fatality ratio is around 1% in high-income countries, but substantially lower in low-income countries with younger populations.
These are the findings of a new report from the Imperial College London COVID-19 Response Team.
The report reveals that:
In high income countries, the estimated overall infection fatality ratio (IFR) is 1.15% (95% prediction interval 0.78-1.79).
In low-income countries, the estimated overall IFR is 0.23% (95% prediction interval 0.14-0.42).
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/207273/covid-19-deaths-infection-fatality-ratio-about/
Run the same simple maths as the Twitterer did using the high income estimate instead, and the proportion of Americans who might be thought to have had the virus drops to 13%, which is some considerable distance from "herd immunity"...
That, I'm afraid, is what seems to have happened here. Crap maths. Easily done. I've been guilty of it myself more than once during this saga.
https://twitter.com/davemacladd/status/1362811024290836480?s=21
Currently engaged In CLP debate on the merits or not of getting Mandleson back involved. And here’s the thing, the pro Mandleson group is bigger.
Not seen this in years. People want to win.
https://twitter.com/VincentRK/status/1361846711715586050?s=19
"The IFR is 0.23%"
Which means that 78% of the UK had had the virus by late January, which would be a bit of a relief.
They're repeating the now-comprehensively-disproven assertion that cross-reactivity with seasonal cold coronaviruses provides natural immunity - it doesn't. If anything, it may make infections slightly worse if your T-cells remember too many such infections.
It's written by a surgeon, not an immunologist, epidemiologist, or virologist, which is often a red flag for op-ed pieces on covid.
There's plenty of positive news around, but this is, unfortunately, bollocks.
Fortunately, we don't need to rely on Yeadon-esque made-up hidden immunity or arithmetically impossible IFRs. We're actually on the way out, anyway, with 30% of adults vaccinated and the rest of us coming up soon.
Even in the early weeks of the pandemic, I hope that we in the UK resisted the temptations of a sauve qui peut approach and tried to keep the flame of global cooperation alive.
https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/prime-ministers-speech-at-the-munich-security-conference-19-february-2021
Good evening, everyone.
We know that they've been underreporting in India to a big degree - has that changed in degree at all? Or has something else changed? Would be very interesting to know for sure.
All of the politicians and media need to start repeating that over and over again all over the world. It should be the new "long term economic plan" that the Tories used to such great success. Stay on the same message.
As a rightwinger I confess the handling of the vaccinatons has - somewhat - warmed me to the idea of the NHS. I really is good at this stuff (tho Israel is better - if we want to reform it, Israel could be a model)
At the same time it has reaffirmed my belief in entrepreneurial vigour. A boss with a brain & a backbone can do things pathetic lefty committees will never achieve.
This discussion will probably be moot in a week when cases shoot back up again.
(2) If the US as a whole was reaching herd immunity, you would expect places which had been particularly hard hit in round one (like New York) would have been essentially immune in round two. That has not happened. (And you might use Northern Italy as a corollary.)
(3) There is a simple natural cycle here - which is true of *all* infectious diseases - where people limit social interactions they are afraid of getting infected. Look at the UK right now, despite vaccinations cutting into the number of infectible people the pace of decline in cases is falling. Why? Because levels of social interaction is key.