If HMG feels that it is too risky, during the ongoing COVID crisis, to allow door-to-door distribution of political literature aimed at voters in upcoming elections, then surely it is too risky to conduct such elections at present?
Let's have a rule that says in the two weeks prior to the elections, each candidate can hand deliver no more than one leaflet. Rules on similar size of leaflets to apply.
No candidates are to door knock.
Who could possibly bitch about democracy falling over then?
But you can have 20x pizza place leaflets over the same period?
I don't think we should fuck about with the current democratic process given that we have all been through what has been an unprecedented period of restricted freedoms.
Let's keep this one (political leafleting) inviolate.
If a local candidate wants talk to me, he or she can knock on my door (socially distanced of course) or ring me up. A load of printed rubbish that goes straight in the recycling just fills up my bin.
Knocking on doors canvassing is strictly outlawed in our neighbourhood watch scheme
I very much doubt it's illegal, unless your part of Wales is some sort of secessionist authoritarian microstate.
I suspect it's more - solid Tory vote so send canvassers elsewhere as you aren't going to gain any votes there.
Canvasses are not seen generally in our immediate area
So as I said - no need to canvass you as better pickings elsewhere...
Let's have a rule that says in the two weeks prior to the elections, each candidate can hand deliver no more than one leaflet. Rules on similar size of leaflets to apply.
No candidates are to door knock.
Who could possibly bitch about democracy falling over then?
But you can have 20x pizza place leaflets over the same period?
I don't think we should fuck about with the current democratic process given that we have all been through what has been an unprecedented period of restricted freedoms.
Let's keep this one (political leafleting) inviolate.
If a local candidate wants talk to me, he or she can knock on my door (socially distanced of course) or ring me up. A load of printed rubbish that goes straight in the recycling just fills up my bin.
Knocking on doors canvassing is strictly outlawed in our neighbourhood watch scheme
Get to fuck with that what right do they have to do that? None.
It is part of the neighbourhood watch scheme and we have a notice on our front door
So what. It is not outlawed. It is just that you and your neighbours don't want to be canvassed.
Canvassers can decide for themselves whether to adhere to your wishes.
I cannot recall when we were last canvassed or someone cold called at our front door
One of the most important freedoms of our planet, hard won, hard fought for, people died for it. But your neighbourhood says no.
Why am I not surprised.
You are making a poor attempt to prejudge the voting intention of our neighbourhood in a marginal seat
No I'm not. I am making a very good attempt at judging the doltishness of your neighbourhood wrt our democratic process, of which political canvassing is an integral part.
Let's have a rule that says in the two weeks prior to the elections, each candidate can hand deliver no more than one leaflet. Rules on similar size of leaflets to apply.
No candidates are to door knock.
Who could possibly bitch about democracy falling over then?
But you can have 20x pizza place leaflets over the same period?
I don't think we should fuck about with the current democratic process given that we have all been through what has been an unprecedented period of restricted freedoms.
Let's keep this one (political leafleting) inviolate.
If a local candidate wants talk to me, he or she can knock on my door (socially distanced of course) or ring me up. A load of printed rubbish that goes straight in the recycling just fills up my bin.
Knocking on doors canvassing is strictly outlawed in our neighbourhood watch scheme
Get to fuck with that what right do they have to do that? None.
It is part of the neighbourhood watch scheme and we have a notice on our front door
So what. It is not outlawed. It is just that you and your neighbours don't want to be canvassed.
Canvassers can decide for themselves whether to adhere to your wishes.
I cannot recall when we were last canvassed or someone cold called at our front door
My house was, once. I had just nipped to the shop and was really disappointed to have missed it! (UKIP, it turns out)
Depends on the seat, I guess.
We went to 35,000 houses in Totnes in 2019 (out of some 43,000 I think it is). And that is quite an effort in quite a rural seat.
Interestingly, our canvas return calculated on the night before the vote was within 0.1% of the actual result. Damn, we pavement-pounders are good at identifying our vote!
So even known unsympathetics you canvassed? Not done that before.
When faced with my sweet-talking, there's no such thing as a lost cause.... 😉
Surely nobody would be unsympathetic to you Mr. Mark!
Let's have a rule that says in the two weeks prior to the elections, each candidate can hand deliver no more than one leaflet. Rules on similar size of leaflets to apply.
No candidates are to door knock.
Who could possibly bitch about democracy falling over then?
But you can have 20x pizza place leaflets over the same period?
I don't think we should fuck about with the current democratic process given that we have all been through what has been an unprecedented period of restricted freedoms.
Let's keep this one (political leafleting) inviolate.
The only pizza leaflets I've had during lockdown are for Domino's Pizza.
Let's have a rule that says in the two weeks prior to the elections, each candidate can hand deliver no more than one leaflet. Rules on similar size of leaflets to apply.
No candidates are to door knock.
Who could possibly bitch about democracy falling over then?
But you can have 20x pizza place leaflets over the same period?
I don't think we should fuck about with the current democratic process given that we have all been through what has been an unprecedented period of restricted freedoms.
Let's keep this one (political leafleting) inviolate.
If a local candidate wants talk to me, he or she can knock on my door (socially distanced of course) or ring me up. A load of printed rubbish that goes straight in the recycling just fills up my bin.
Knocking on doors canvassing is strictly outlawed in our neighbourhood watch scheme
I very much doubt it's illegal, unless your part of Wales is some sort of secessionist authoritarian microstate.
Wales has no desire to follow Scotland down that path....
Being serious, I don't know why parties are often so crap at just, say, a basic local site showing their current councillors and candidates. I've seen ones where the former doesn't get updated when someone leaves the group, and I've found some details on facebook of candidates already selected, but nothing very coordinated.
Let's have a rule that says in the two weeks prior to the elections, each candidate can hand deliver no more than one leaflet. Rules on similar size of leaflets to apply.
No candidates are to door knock.
Who could possibly bitch about democracy falling over then?
But you can have 20x pizza place leaflets over the same period?
I don't think we should fuck about with the current democratic process given that we have all been through what has been an unprecedented period of restricted freedoms.
Let's keep this one (political leafleting) inviolate.
If a local candidate wants talk to me, he or she can knock on my door (socially distanced of course) or ring me up. A load of printed rubbish that goes straight in the recycling just fills up my bin.
Knocking on doors canvassing is strictly outlawed in our neighbourhood watch scheme
Get to fuck with that what right do they have to do that? None.
It is part of the neighbourhood watch scheme and we have a notice on our front door
So what. It is not outlawed. It is just that you and your neighbours don't want to be canvassed.
Canvassers can decide for themselves whether to adhere to your wishes.
I cannot recall when we were last canvassed or someone cold called at our front door
My house was, once. I had just nipped to the shop and was really disappointed to have missed it! (UKIP, it turns out)
Depends on the seat, I guess.
We went to 35,000 houses in Totnes in 2019 (out of some 43,000 I think it is). And that is quite an effort in quite a rural seat.
Interestingly, our canvas return calculated on the night before the vote was within 0.1% of the actual result. Damn, we pavement-pounders are good at identifying our vote!
So even known unsympathetics you canvassed? Not done that before.
When faced with my sweet-talking, there's no such thing as a lost cause.... 😉
"Mummy, that creepy man with the clipboard is back again..."
Let's have a rule that says in the two weeks prior to the elections, each candidate can hand deliver no more than one leaflet. Rules on similar size of leaflets to apply.
No candidates are to door knock.
Who could possibly bitch about democracy falling over then?
But you can have 20x pizza place leaflets over the same period?
I don't think we should fuck about with the current democratic process given that we have all been through what has been an unprecedented period of restricted freedoms.
Let's keep this one (political leafleting) inviolate.
If a local candidate wants talk to me, he or she can knock on my door (socially distanced of course) or ring me up. A load of printed rubbish that goes straight in the recycling just fills up my bin.
Knocking on doors canvassing is strictly outlawed in our neighbourhood watch scheme
I very much doubt it's illegal, unless your part of Wales is some sort of secessionist authoritarian microstate.
I suspect it's more - solid Tory vote so send canvassers elsewhere as you aren't going to gain any votes there.
Canvasses are not seen generally in our immediate area
So as I said - no need to canvass you as better pickings elsewhere...
All that aside, it is a marginal. Every house matters.
I always ignore the "no junk mail" and no canvassers notices. I don't recall seeing any "no political canvassers" notices, that said.
But then we arses do respect the democratic process even if people try to undermine it.
Poltico.com - It might just be game over for the Iowa caucuses The states with the most privileged places on the presidential primary calendar are finding their roles more threatened than ever before.
"The siege of Iowa and New Hampshire has begun.
The two states with privileged places on the presidential primary calendar are finding their roles more threatened than ever before — most recently in the form of a bill introduced in Nevada this week to move that state’s nominating contest to the front of the line in 2024.
On its own, the Nevada encroachment would mean little. For years, Iowa and New Hampshire have successfully defended their one-two position from states eager to jump ahead. But the combination of Iowa’s botched 2020 caucus and increasing diversity in the Democratic Party’s ranks has made the whiteness of Iowa and New Hampshire all the more conspicuous, putting the two states on their heels and throwing the 2024 calendar into turmoil."
Addendum
Up until 2020, WA State chose its delegates to the National Democratic convention on the basis of precinct caucuses; the state's presidential preference primary being just a "beauty contest" for Dems. (Republicans allocated their delegates half based on caucuses, half by primary).
Note that yours truly used to pay the rent on my humble abode by figuring out how many delegates each of the state's 2k plus voting precincts was entitled to elect on caucus day. Thus my equally-humble bank balance took a hit when the state Democratic party eliminated the caucuses.
HOWEVER, personally supported this move, and still do.
Why? Because caucuses are demonstrably way LESS democratic (with a small d) than primaries. The notion that they are akin to old-school town meetings in New England or the like is a bad joke to anyone who's observed caucuses close up and personal. Because as soon as you get anything approaching mass participation (or rather a significant fraction of the mass) you go beyond the fiscal & organizational capacity of state parties to manage the process. As seen in the god-awful mess the state and (especially) the national Democratic party made of the Iowa caucuses in 2020.
Don't forget the 2012 Republican Iowa caucuses which were won by Mitt Romney. No, hold on, Rick Santorum won. No, it should have been Ron Paul. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses
Let's have a rule that says in the two weeks prior to the elections, each candidate can hand deliver no more than one leaflet. Rules on similar size of leaflets to apply.
No candidates are to door knock.
Who could possibly bitch about democracy falling over then?
But you can have 20x pizza place leaflets over the same period?
I don't think we should fuck about with the current democratic process given that we have all been through what has been an unprecedented period of restricted freedoms.
Let's keep this one (political leafleting) inviolate.
If a local candidate wants talk to me, he or she can knock on my door (socially distanced of course) or ring me up. A load of printed rubbish that goes straight in the recycling just fills up my bin.
Knocking on doors canvassing is strictly outlawed in our neighbourhood watch scheme
Get to fuck with that what right do they have to do that? None.
It is part of the neighbourhood watch scheme and we have a notice on our front door
So what. It is not outlawed. It is just that you and your neighbours don't want to be canvassed.
Canvassers can decide for themselves whether to adhere to your wishes.
I cannot recall when we were last canvassed or someone cold called at our front door
We've had a lot of cold people calling at our door over the last month.
Let's have a rule that says in the two weeks prior to the elections, each candidate can hand deliver no more than one leaflet. Rules on similar size of leaflets to apply.
No candidates are to door knock.
Who could possibly bitch about democracy falling over then?
But you can have 20x pizza place leaflets over the same period?
I don't think we should fuck about with the current democratic process given that we have all been through what has been an unprecedented period of restricted freedoms.
Let's keep this one (political leafleting) inviolate.
If a local candidate wants talk to me, he or she can knock on my door (socially distanced of course) or ring me up. A load of printed rubbish that goes straight in the recycling just fills up my bin.
Knocking on doors canvassing is strictly outlawed in our neighbourhood watch scheme
Get to fuck with that what right do they have to do that? None.
It is part of the neighbourhood watch scheme and we have a notice on our front door
So what. It is not outlawed. It is just that you and your neighbours don't want to be canvassed.
Canvassers can decide for themselves whether to adhere to your wishes.
I cannot recall when we were last canvassed or someone cold called at our front door
One of the most important freedoms of our planet, hard won, hard fought for, people died for it. But your neighbourhood says no.
Why am I not surprised.
You are making a poor attempt to prejudge the voting intention of our neighbourhood in a marginal seat
It`s a Friday afternoon and I think a few PB posters are pulling your leg Big G. (Not me though.)
To be honest when I was the late Lord Wyn Roberts driver in the 1983 GE campaign, we knocked on most every door on a council estate in Bangor and most everyone came out, shook his hand and wished him well.
I was not surprised as he was a very kind person and an excellent mp
I think once the lockdown starts to ease from next month leafletting will be back on, commercial companies have already been delivering some political leaflets and the LDs have been hand delivering.
Canvassing will also likely be allowed from April, even with facemasks
I think this is pretty likely. And given the age of many activists, most will have had two shots by then!
(In fairness we have some pretty youthful activists round my way)
It would take more than a couple of shots to get me out canvassing. Particularly in this weather. Filled hip flask and maybe we can talk...
Edit: And also a political party I give a damn about. That would help motivate too, of course.
Let's have a rule that says in the two weeks prior to the elections, each candidate can hand deliver no more than one leaflet. Rules on similar size of leaflets to apply.
No candidates are to door knock.
Who could possibly bitch about democracy falling over then?
But you can have 20x pizza place leaflets over the same period?
I don't think we should fuck about with the current democratic process given that we have all been through what has been an unprecedented period of restricted freedoms.
Let's keep this one (political leafleting) inviolate.
If a local candidate wants talk to me, he or she can knock on my door (socially distanced of course) or ring me up. A load of printed rubbish that goes straight in the recycling just fills up my bin.
Knocking on doors canvassing is strictly outlawed in our neighbourhood watch scheme
Get to fuck with that what right do they have to do that? None.
It is part of the neighbourhood watch scheme and we have a notice on our front door
So what. It is not outlawed. It is just that you and your neighbours don't want to be canvassed.
Canvassers can decide for themselves whether to adhere to your wishes.
I cannot recall when we were last canvassed or someone cold called at our front door
My house was, once. I had just nipped to the shop and was really disappointed to have missed it! (UKIP, it turns out)
Depends on the seat, I guess.
We went to 35,000 houses in Totnes in 2019 (out of some 43,000 I think it is). And that is quite an effort in quite a rural seat.
Interestingly, our canvas return calculated on the night before the vote was within 0.1% of the actual result. Damn, we pavement-pounders are good at identifying our vote!
So even known unsympathetics you canvassed? Not done that before.
When faced with my sweet-talking, there's no such thing as a lost cause.... 😉
I have no doubt. But given that canvassing is aimed at getting your own vote out, more than changing the mind of "their vote" I find it surprising.
Let's have a rule that says in the two weeks prior to the elections, each candidate can hand deliver no more than one leaflet. Rules on similar size of leaflets to apply.
No candidates are to door knock.
Who could possibly bitch about democracy falling over then?
But you can have 20x pizza place leaflets over the same period?
I don't think we should fuck about with the current democratic process given that we have all been through what has been an unprecedented period of restricted freedoms.
Let's keep this one (political leafleting) inviolate.
If a local candidate wants talk to me, he or she can knock on my door (socially distanced of course) or ring me up. A load of printed rubbish that goes straight in the recycling just fills up my bin.
Knocking on doors canvassing is strictly outlawed in our neighbourhood watch scheme
I very much doubt it's illegal, unless your part of Wales is some sort of secessionist authoritarian microstate.
I suspect it's more - solid Tory vote so send canvassers elsewhere as you aren't going to gain any votes there.
Canvasses are not seen generally in our immediate area
So as I said - no need to canvass you as better pickings elsewhere...
All that aside, it is a marginal. Every house matters.
I always ignore the "no junk mail" and no canvassers notices. I don't recall seeing any "no political canvassers" notices, that said.
But then we arses do respect the democratic process even if people try to undermine it.
It is however a numbers game and if you don't have the numbers you pick the places that will make the most difference.
Has it ever been proven that political leaflets have an effect, anymore so than junk mail
Of course door knocking is a different matter but in our 'neighbourhood watch area' you cannot even do that
It is interesting. Certainly we put a lot of effort into the leafletting work during the referendum campaign. Not sure if it was wasted or not but the leaflets certainly got a lot of air time with claims and counterclaims about what was on them.
For a GE I think probably they don't make that much difference to most people. For local elections I think they do. There I believe people are far less likely to be following party allegiances and more voting for the individual and what they are saying they will do in power. I certainly pay a lot of attention to what I can find out about the candidates and much of the time it is only the leaflets that give you that information.
So yes, personally I think they do make a difference.
They surely must otherwise no-one would bother. Law of averages, I'm thinking. Send out 1000, impact maybe 15 votes. That's 15 more than if you sent none. There is the odd perverse sort who will claim that all the bumph loses their vote but I think that's mainly performative Victor Meldrew cosplay rather than the actual truth.
As for me, a really good Tory leaflet can get me thinking and asking myself the question - "Can they really be so bad if they can produce such a quality piece of campaign material?"
It's yet to change my vote but it causes a flash of discomfort which I could happily do without.
My favourite local election occurrence is people who agreed to be paper candidates, may have even asked to be sure they would not win before agreeing, unexpectedly winning. I know several former councillors who say they started out that way.
Let's have a rule that says in the two weeks prior to the elections, each candidate can hand deliver no more than one leaflet. Rules on similar size of leaflets to apply.
No candidates are to door knock.
Who could possibly bitch about democracy falling over then?
But you can have 20x pizza place leaflets over the same period?
I don't think we should fuck about with the current democratic process given that we have all been through what has been an unprecedented period of restricted freedoms.
Let's keep this one (political leafleting) inviolate.
If a local candidate wants talk to me, he or she can knock on my door (socially distanced of course) or ring me up. A load of printed rubbish that goes straight in the recycling just fills up my bin.
Knocking on doors canvassing is strictly outlawed in our neighbourhood watch scheme
I very much doubt it's illegal, unless your part of Wales is some sort of secessionist authoritarian microstate.
I suspect it's more - solid Tory vote so send canvassers elsewhere as you aren't going to gain any votes there.
Canvasses are not seen generally in our immediate area
So as I said - no need to canvass you as better pickings elsewhere...
All that aside, it is a marginal. Every house matters.
I always ignore the "no junk mail" and no canvassers notices. I don't recall seeing any "no political canvassers" notices, that said.
But then we arses do respect the democratic process even if people try to undermine it.
It is however a numbers game and if you don't have the numbers you pick the places that will make the most difference.
As I said, canvassing is primarily to get your own vote out. If it is a marginal then every vote matters. And having some of "your" vote not GOAV could be giving away the seat.
Let's have a rule that says in the two weeks prior to the elections, each candidate can hand deliver no more than one leaflet. Rules on similar size of leaflets to apply.
No candidates are to door knock.
Who could possibly bitch about democracy falling over then?
But you can have 20x pizza place leaflets over the same period?
I don't think we should fuck about with the current democratic process given that we have all been through what has been an unprecedented period of restricted freedoms.
Let's keep this one (political leafleting) inviolate.
If a local candidate wants talk to me, he or she can knock on my door (socially distanced of course) or ring me up. A load of printed rubbish that goes straight in the recycling just fills up my bin.
Knocking on doors canvassing is strictly outlawed in our neighbourhood watch scheme
Get to fuck with that what right do they have to do that? None.
It is part of the neighbourhood watch scheme and we have a notice on our front door
So what. It is not outlawed. It is just that you and your neighbours don't want to be canvassed.
Canvassers can decide for themselves whether to adhere to your wishes.
But at the risk of a punch in the nose from BigG.
BigG`s scheme sounds a bit .... blanket ... if you know what I mean.
I`m waiting for Rachel Riley off the telly to knock on my door and I hate to think she`d be deterred by one of Big G`s neighbourhood watch stickers. .
Could you not just have a sign saying “no political canvassers other than Rachel Riley?”
Has it ever been proven that political leaflets have an effect, anymore so than junk mail
Of course door knocking is a different matter but in our 'neighbourhood watch area' you cannot even do that
It is interesting. Certainly we put a lot of effort into the leafletting work during the referendum campaign. Not sure if it was wasted or not but the leaflets certainly got a lot of air time with claims and counterclaims about what was on them.
For a GE I think probably they don't make that much difference to most people. For local elections I think they do. There I believe people are far less likely to be following party allegiances and more voting for the individual and what they are saying they will do in power. I certainly pay a lot of attention to what I can find out about the candidates and much of the time it is only the leaflets that give you that information.
So yes, personally I think they do make a difference.
They surely must otherwise no-one would bother. Law of averages, I'm thinking. Send out 1000, impact maybe 15 votes. That's 15 more than if you sent none. There is the odd perverse sort who will claim that all the bumph loses their vote but I think that's mainly performative Victor Meldrew cosplay rather than the actual truth.
As for me, a really good Tory leaflet can get me thinking and asking myself the question - "Can they really be so bad if they can produce such a quality piece of campaign material?"
It's yet to change my vote but it causes a flash of discomfort which I could happily do without.
Tell us some of your own canvassing stories. How was Glenda as a candidate?
My favourite local election occurrence is people who agreed to be paper candidates, may have even asked to be sure they would not win before agreeing, unexpectedly winning. I know several former councillors who say they started out that way.
Happened a bit in 1997.
A few LD and Labour people agreed to be paper candidates and ended up becoming MPs as they weren't expecting the Tory wipeout.
Let's have a rule that says in the two weeks prior to the elections, each candidate can hand deliver no more than one leaflet. Rules on similar size of leaflets to apply.
No candidates are to door knock.
Who could possibly bitch about democracy falling over then?
But you can have 20x pizza place leaflets over the same period?
I don't think we should fuck about with the current democratic process given that we have all been through what has been an unprecedented period of restricted freedoms.
Let's keep this one (political leafleting) inviolate.
If a local candidate wants talk to me, he or she can knock on my door (socially distanced of course) or ring me up. A load of printed rubbish that goes straight in the recycling just fills up my bin.
Knocking on doors canvassing is strictly outlawed in our neighbourhood watch scheme
Get to fuck with that what right do they have to do that? None.
It is part of the neighbourhood watch scheme and we have a notice on our front door
Alun Cairns and Vale Conservatives issued us all with "no canvassing" stickers for our front doors at GE2019, which was very kind of him/them.
If elections are to be held, they must be fair elections. Independent candidates should therefore have a chance to make their case to each elector. Distributing leaflets should certainly be allowed, and probably canvassing as well.
My favourite local election occurrence is people who agreed to be paper candidates, may have even asked to be sure they would not win before agreeing, unexpectedly winning. I know several former councillors who say they started out that way.
Happened a bit in 1997.
A few LD and Labour people agreed to be paper candidates and ended up becoming MPs as they weren't expecting the Tory wipeout.
Similar issue suggested with a few candidates a la Jared O'Mara only slipping through ramshackle selection due to the 2017 snap election.
I guess knocking up the voters isn't allowed in 2021 either?
Lordy, I did enjoy knocking up as many voters as possible on election day over the years.
That post is positively pregnant with double meanings.
Only if you have a mind like a Welsh railway (one track and filthy.)
Here then is my list of the five main things campaigners get up to on polling day:
2. Knocking-up
Political knocking-up means calling on voters to remind them it is polling day and to give them a final personal push both to vote and to vote for us. To make best use of the time spent on this, the people called on are usually a mix of people planning to vote for us – for whom a personal visit helps ensure they actually go to vote and stick with their plan to support us – and also supporters of parties who aren’t in with a chance of winning but whose supporters might tactically switch to us.
Sometimes other groups may be added in, such as if people who signed a local petition overwhelmingly are backing us and so it makes sense also to knock-up those who signed the petition who we don’t have canvass data for.
This is why when knocking-up you shouldn’t be too surprised if you find a few people not voting for us. That’s normal.
The list of names we’re calling on is called, in Liberal Democrat circles, the shuttleworth (after the printing firm that produced the carbon copy paper used for these lists back in pre-computer days).
Knocking-up can also be done over the phone – which is great for getting through geographically dispersed people quickly but is limited by how many people we have usable phone numbers for.
Either way, knocking-up is much more efficient if done using the MiniVAN app (which also keeps data much more secure than using pieces of paper).
Poltico.com - It might just be game over for the Iowa caucuses The states with the most privileged places on the presidential primary calendar are finding their roles more threatened than ever before.
"The siege of Iowa and New Hampshire has begun.
The two states with privileged places on the presidential primary calendar are finding their roles more threatened than ever before — most recently in the form of a bill introduced in Nevada this week to move that state’s nominating contest to the front of the line in 2024.
On its own, the Nevada encroachment would mean little. For years, Iowa and New Hampshire have successfully defended their one-two position from states eager to jump ahead. But the combination of Iowa’s botched 2020 caucus and increasing diversity in the Democratic Party’s ranks has made the whiteness of Iowa and New Hampshire all the more conspicuous, putting the two states on their heels and throwing the 2024 calendar into turmoil."
Addendum
Up until 2020, WA State chose its delegates to the National Democratic convention on the basis of precinct caucuses; the state's presidential preference primary being just a "beauty contest" for Dems. (Republicans allocated their delegates half based on caucuses, half by primary).
Note that yours truly used to pay the rent on my humble abode by figuring out how many delegates each of the state's 2k plus voting precincts was entitled to elect on caucus day. Thus my equally-humble bank balance took a hit when the state Democratic party eliminated the caucuses.
HOWEVER, personally supported this move, and still do.
Why? Because caucuses are demonstrably way LESS democratic (with a small d) than primaries. The notion that they are akin to old-school town meetings in New England or the like is a bad joke to anyone who's observed caucuses close up and personal. Because as soon as you get anything approaching mass participation (or rather a significant fraction of the mass) you go beyond the fiscal & organizational capacity of state parties to manage the process. As seen in the god-awful mess the state and (especially) the national Democratic party made of the Iowa caucuses in 2020.
It really surprises me that the parties do not control the process, to be honest.
My reliable sources are telling me that hand delivered manifestos will soon be permitted. And great news for those standing as candidates for every type of council authority (raises hand nervously) - you will only need two nominations. Sid and Doris Bonkers have been duly notified.
Let's have a rule that says in the two weeks prior to the elections, each candidate can hand deliver no more than one leaflet. Rules on similar size of leaflets to apply.
No candidates are to door knock.
Who could possibly bitch about democracy falling over then?
But you can have 20x pizza place leaflets over the same period?
I don't think we should fuck about with the current democratic process given that we have all been through what has been an unprecedented period of restricted freedoms.
Let's keep this one (political leafleting) inviolate.
If a local candidate wants talk to me, he or she can knock on my door (socially distanced of course) or ring me up. A load of printed rubbish that goes straight in the recycling just fills up my bin.
Knocking on doors canvassing is strictly outlawed in our neighbourhood watch scheme
Get to fuck with that what right do they have to do that? None.
It is part of the neighbourhood watch scheme and we have a notice on our front door
So what. It is not outlawed. It is just that you and your neighbours don't want to be canvassed.
Canvassers can decide for themselves whether to adhere to your wishes.
But at the risk of a punch in the nose from BigG.
I would never act in a violent way to anyone though they would be told to respect our wishes
I guess knocking up the voters isn't allowed in 2021 either?
Lordy, I did enjoy knocking up as many voters as possible on election day over the years.
That post is positively pregnant with double meanings.
Only if you have a mind like a Welsh railway (one track and filthy.)
Here then is my list of the five main things campaigners get up to on polling day:
2. Knocking-up
Political knocking-up means calling on voters to remind them it is polling day and to give them a final personal push both to vote and to vote for us. To make best use of the time spent on this, the people called on are usually a mix of people planning to vote for us – for whom a personal visit helps ensure they actually go to vote and stick with their plan to support us – and also supporters of parties who aren’t in with a chance of winning but whose supporters might tactically switch to us.
Sometimes other groups may be added in, such as if people who signed a local petition overwhelmingly are backing us and so it makes sense also to knock-up those who signed the petition who we don’t have canvass data for.
This is why when knocking-up you shouldn’t be too surprised if you find a few people not voting for us. That’s normal.
The list of names we’re calling on is called, in Liberal Democrat circles, the shuttleworth (after the printing firm that produced the carbon copy paper used for these lists back in pre-computer days).
Knocking-up can also be done over the phone – which is great for getting through geographically dispersed people quickly but is limited by how many people we have usable phone numbers for.
Either way, knocking-up is much more efficient if done using the MiniVAN app (which also keeps data much more secure than using pieces of paper).
My favourite local election occurrence is people who agreed to be paper candidates, may have even asked to be sure they would not win before agreeing, unexpectedly winning. I know several former councillors who say they started out that way.
Happened a bit in 1997.
A few LD and Labour people agreed to be paper candidates and ended up becoming MPs as they weren't expecting the Tory wipeout.
There were similar reports after Mrs Thatcher's landslide, and no doubt the SNP have seen a few hurried resignations from normal jobs, and Mhairi Black MP was half-way through her exams iirc.
My reliable sources are telling me that hand delivered manifestos will soon be permitted. And great news for those standing as candidates as Councillors of every type of authority (raises hand nervously) - you will only need two nominations. Sid and Doris Bonkers have been duly notified.
Yes, that is a pretty significant change. I'm surprised it wasn't at least 4. The reduction for PCCs may be even more remarkable.
I'm also hoping for some really loony candidates, even by regular standards. Could be some candidates with next to 0 votes as a result.
Let's have a rule that says in the two weeks prior to the elections, each candidate can hand deliver no more than one leaflet. Rules on similar size of leaflets to apply.
No candidates are to door knock.
Who could possibly bitch about democracy falling over then?
But you can have 20x pizza place leaflets over the same period?
I don't think we should fuck about with the current democratic process given that we have all been through what has been an unprecedented period of restricted freedoms.
Let's keep this one (political leafleting) inviolate.
If a local candidate wants talk to me, he or she can knock on my door (socially distanced of course) or ring me up. A load of printed rubbish that goes straight in the recycling just fills up my bin.
Knocking on doors canvassing is strictly outlawed in our neighbourhood watch scheme
Get to fuck with that what right do they have to do that? None.
It is part of the neighbourhood watch scheme and we have a notice on our front door
So what. It is not outlawed. It is just that you and your neighbours don't want to be canvassed.
Canvassers can decide for themselves whether to adhere to your wishes.
I cannot recall when we were last canvassed or someone cold called at our front door
My house was, once. I had just nipped to the shop and was really disappointed to have missed it! (UKIP, it turns out)
Depends on the seat, I guess.
We went to 35,000 houses in Totnes in 2019 (out of some 43,000 I think it is). And that is quite an effort in quite a rural seat.
Interestingly, our canvas return calculated on the night before the vote was within 0.1% of the actual result. Damn, we pavement-pounders are good at identifying our vote!
So even known unsympathetics you canvassed? Not done that before.
When faced with my sweet-talking, there's no such thing as a lost cause.... 😉
I have no doubt. But given that canvassing is aimed at getting your own vote out, more than changing the mind of "their vote" I find it surprising.
But it evidently worked.
Was there a swing in the seat?
About an 8% swing against, but it was complicated by having the previousy elected Tory MP (Dr. Sarah Wollaston) standing against the new Tory candidate.
The LibDems threw an enormous amount of cash at trying to save her. It was one of the reasons we had to go door to door, to identify those who were giving her a personal vote from amongst our former safe voters. There was also an element of appearing cock-sure we were trying to contact all voters. "We understand that you might not vote for us this time, but we have an excellent candidate who we believe will be an excellent representative for all of Totnes' voters, regardless of that vote." The message: he is going to win, so he will be happy to represent you on any issues you might have.
Anthony Mangnall really is a delightful chap. I do not begrudge one moment spent helping him get elected. That he is solidly in favour of tidal lagoon power is merely coincidental....
Has it ever been proven that political leaflets have an effect, anymore so than junk mail
Of course door knocking is a different matter but in our 'neighbourhood watch area' you cannot even do that
It is interesting. Certainly we put a lot of effort into the leafletting work during the referendum campaign. Not sure if it was wasted or not but the leaflets certainly got a lot of air time with claims and counterclaims about what was on them.
For a GE I think probably they don't make that much difference to most people. For local elections I think they do. There I believe people are far less likely to be following party allegiances and more voting for the individual and what they are saying they will do in power. I certainly pay a lot of attention to what I can find out about the candidates and much of the time it is only the leaflets that give you that information.
So yes, personally I think they do make a difference.
They surely must otherwise no-one would bother. Law of averages, I'm thinking. Send out 1000, impact maybe 15 votes. That's 15 more than if you sent none. There is the odd perverse sort who will claim that all the bumph loses their vote but I think that's mainly performative Victor Meldrew cosplay rather than the actual truth.
As for me, a really good Tory leaflet can get me thinking and asking myself the question - "Can they really be so bad if they can produce such a quality piece of campaign material?"
It's yet to change my vote but it causes a flash of discomfort which I could happily do without.
Tell us some of your own canvassing stories. How was Glenda as a candidate?
My favourite local election occurrence is people who agreed to be paper candidates, may have even asked to be sure they would not win before agreeing, unexpectedly winning. I know several former councillors who say they started out that way.
Happened a bit in 1997.
A few LD and Labour people agreed to be paper candidates and ended up becoming MPs as they weren't expecting the Tory wipeout.
There were similar reports after Mrs Thatcher's landslide, and no doubt the SNP have seen a few hurried resignations from normal jobs, and Mhairi Black MP was half-way through her exams iirc.
Meaning we need to identify which of the 2019 Tory intake are the 'Crap, we didn't expect this idiot to actually get elected' ones.
At a rate of 20% per week, it'll take until about the second weekend of May for cases to get down from 12k to 1k per day. Except that, now the rate of decline has slowed, there's no particular reason to suppose that it won't continue to do so. And who knows how much worse it might get once the schools go back?
This is just the sort of excuse that the lockdown ultras have been praying for. We have to hope to God that the Prime Minister isn't paying too much attention to them, or we could be imprisoned indefinitely.
My experience with canvassing houses with no canvassing stickers is almost perfectly to a man (almost always an older man) they open the door see you are a salesman (or technically canvasser) and do an exaggerated point to the sticker on the door saying no canvassers whilst looking at you sternly.
Then you say my mistake didn't see it and canvass them anyway....
My reliable sources are telling me that hand delivered manifestos will soon be permitted. And great news for those standing as candidates for every type of council authority (raises hand nervously) - you will only need two nominations. Sid and Doris Bonkers have been duly notified.
Is that the case for the London Mayor as well? Certainly in the past the nominations have been a genuine issue even for some of the established parties - needing 10 nominations from each Borough and the City of London (so 330 in total)
At a rate of 20% per week, it'll take until about the second weekend of May for cases to get down from 12k to 1k per day. Except that, now the rate of decline has slowed, there's no particular reason to suppose that it won't continue to do so. And who knows how much worse it might get once the schools go back?
This is just the sort of excuse that the lockdown ultras have been praying for. We have to hope to God that the Prime Minister isn't paying too much attention to them, or we could be imprisoned indefinitely.
See my post. It will be the hospitilization data that sets us free. Once there are few needing the hospital (occupancy down 5K from last friday) there is no need to stay locked down.
At a rate of 20% per week, it'll take until about the second weekend of May for cases to get down from 12k to 1k per day. Except that, now the rate of decline has slowed, there's no particular reason to suppose that it won't continue to do so. And who knows how much worse it might get once the schools go back?
This is just the sort of excuse that the lockdown ultras have been praying for. We have to hope to God that the Prime Minister isn't paying too much attention to them, or we could be imprisoned indefinitely.
This time around, it was predicted deaths fall steepest first, then admissions, then finally cases. And so it is.
Let's have a rule that says in the two weeks prior to the elections, each candidate can hand deliver no more than one leaflet. Rules on similar size of leaflets to apply.
No candidates are to door knock.
Who could possibly bitch about democracy falling over then?
But you can have 20x pizza place leaflets over the same period?
I don't think we should fuck about with the current democratic process given that we have all been through what has been an unprecedented period of restricted freedoms.
Let's keep this one (political leafleting) inviolate.
If a local candidate wants talk to me, he or she can knock on my door (socially distanced of course) or ring me up. A load of printed rubbish that goes straight in the recycling just fills up my bin.
Knocking on doors canvassing is strictly outlawed in our neighbourhood watch scheme
Get to fuck with that what right do they have to do that? None.
It is part of the neighbourhood watch scheme and we have a notice on our front door
So what. It is not outlawed. It is just that you and your neighbours don't want to be canvassed.
Canvassers can decide for themselves whether to adhere to your wishes.
For a neighborhood absolutely but for a single property?
If someone doesn't want canvassers on their own property then that's their choice. Unless you're standing on a public footpath what right do you have to violate their private property against their own personal explicit wishes?
At a rate of 20% per week, it'll take until about the second weekend of May for cases to get down from 12k to 1k per day. Except that, now the rate of decline has slowed, there's no particular reason to suppose that it won't continue to do so. And who knows how much worse it might get once the schools go back?
This is just the sort of excuse that the lockdown ultras have been praying for. We have to hope to God that the Prime Minister isn't paying too much attention to them, or we could be imprisoned indefinitely.
What's interesting is that after a few days of stagnation the hospital numbers have resumed their strong downwards trend so the link between cases and hospitalisations could be well and truly broken by vaccination. If this is the case as most of us are hoping then the lockdown ultras won't really have much of an argument.
Let's have a rule that says in the two weeks prior to the elections, each candidate can hand deliver no more than one leaflet. Rules on similar size of leaflets to apply.
No candidates are to door knock.
Who could possibly bitch about democracy falling over then?
But you can have 20x pizza place leaflets over the same period?
I don't think we should fuck about with the current democratic process given that we have all been through what has been an unprecedented period of restricted freedoms.
Let's keep this one (political leafleting) inviolate.
If a local candidate wants talk to me, he or she can knock on my door (socially distanced of course) or ring me up. A load of printed rubbish that goes straight in the recycling just fills up my bin.
Knocking on doors canvassing is strictly outlawed in our neighbourhood watch scheme
Get to fuck with that what right do they have to do that? None.
It is part of the neighbourhood watch scheme and we have a notice on our front door
So what. It is not outlawed. It is just that you and your neighbours don't want to be canvassed.
Canvassers can decide for themselves whether to adhere to your wishes.
I cannot recall when we were last canvassed or someone cold called at our front door
My house was, once. I had just nipped to the shop and was really disappointed to have missed it! (UKIP, it turns out)
Depends on the seat, I guess.
We went to 35,000 houses in Totnes in 2019 (out of some 43,000 I think it is). And that is quite an effort in quite a rural seat.
Interestingly, our canvas return calculated on the night before the vote was within 0.1% of the actual result. Damn, we pavement-pounders are good at identifying our vote!
So even known unsympathetics you canvassed? Not done that before.
When faced with my sweet-talking, there's no such thing as a lost cause.... 😉
I have no doubt. But given that canvassing is aimed at getting your own vote out, more than changing the mind of "their vote" I find it surprising.
But it evidently worked.
Was there a swing in the seat?
About an 8% swing against, but it was complicated by having the previousy elected Tory MP (Dr. Sarah Wollaston) standing against the new Tory candidate.
The LibDems threw an enormous amount of cash at trying to save her. It was one of the reasons we had to go door to door, to identify those who were giving her a personal vote from amongst our former safe voters. There was also an element of appearing cock-sure we were trying to contact all voters. "We understand that you might not vote for us this time, but we have an excellent candidate who we believe will be an excellent representative for all of Totnes' voters, regardless of that vote." The message: he is going to win, so he will be happy to represent you on any issues you might have.
Anthony Mangnall really is a delightful chap. I do not begrudge one moment spent helping him get elected. That he is solidly in favour of tidal lagoon power is merely coincidental....
My reliable sources are telling me that hand delivered manifestos will soon be permitted. And great news for those standing as candidates as Councillors of every type of authority (raises hand nervously) - you will only need two nominations. Sid and Doris Bonkers have been duly notified.
Yes, that is a pretty significant change. I'm surprised it wasn't at least 4. The reduction for PCCs may be even more remarkable.
I'm also hoping for some really loony candidates, even by regular standards. Could be some candidates with next to 0 votes as a result.
I wonder if there's an opening for a new party promising a range of really brutal punishments for the bastards who don't clear up the shit left all over the place by their rotten dogs?
At a rate of 20% per week, it'll take until about the second weekend of May for cases to get down from 12k to 1k per day. Except that, now the rate of decline has slowed, there's no particular reason to suppose that it won't continue to do so. And who knows how much worse it might get once the schools go back?
This is just the sort of excuse that the lockdown ultras have been praying for. We have to hope to God that the Prime Minister isn't paying too much attention to them, or we could be imprisoned indefinitely.
This time around, it was predicted deaths fall steepest first, then admissions, then finally cases. And so it is.
We'll be fine.
I think the government should stop reporting daily cases when they get beneath a certain level (say 5000).
My experience with canvassing houses with no canvassing stickers is almost perfectly to a man (almost always an older man) they open the door see you are a salesman (or technically canvasser) and do an exaggerated point to the sticker on the door saying no canvassers whilst looking at you sternly.
Then you say my mistake didn't see it and canvass them anyway....
Exactly. Although I have in my time given them a (mild to less mild depending upon their attitude) rebuke about democracy, etc. Which 100% of them responded positively to.
At a rate of 20% per week, it'll take until about the second weekend of May for cases to get down from 12k to 1k per day. Except that, now the rate of decline has slowed, there's no particular reason to suppose that it won't continue to do so. And who knows how much worse it might get once the schools go back?
This is just the sort of excuse that the lockdown ultras have been praying for. We have to hope to God that the Prime Minister isn't paying too much attention to them, or we could be imprisoned indefinitely.
This time around, it was predicted deaths fall steepest first, then admissions, then finally cases. And so it is.
We'll be fine.
I think the government should stop reporting daily cases when they get beneath a certain level (say 5000).
Just report hospitalisations and deaths.
I disagree. People should have a right to know the facts. What they do with those facts is up to them.
Besides once they get below that threshold they should keep going down towards zero which would reassure people. Shouldn't people have that information instead of being afraid not knowing what it is, imagining the worst and thinking "what aren't they telling us"?
Let's have a rule that says in the two weeks prior to the elections, each candidate can hand deliver no more than one leaflet. Rules on similar size of leaflets to apply.
No candidates are to door knock.
Who could possibly bitch about democracy falling over then?
But you can have 20x pizza place leaflets over the same period?
I don't think we should fuck about with the current democratic process given that we have all been through what has been an unprecedented period of restricted freedoms.
Let's keep this one (political leafleting) inviolate.
If a local candidate wants talk to me, he or she can knock on my door (socially distanced of course) or ring me up. A load of printed rubbish that goes straight in the recycling just fills up my bin.
Knocking on doors canvassing is strictly outlawed in our neighbourhood watch scheme
Get to fuck with that what right do they have to do that? None.
It is part of the neighbourhood watch scheme and we have a notice on our front door
So what. It is not outlawed. It is just that you and your neighbours don't want to be canvassed.
Canvassers can decide for themselves whether to adhere to your wishes.
I cannot recall when we were last canvassed or someone cold called at our front door
My house was, once. I had just nipped to the shop and was really disappointed to have missed it! (UKIP, it turns out)
Depends on the seat, I guess.
We went to 35,000 houses in Totnes in 2019 (out of some 43,000 I think it is). And that is quite an effort in quite a rural seat.
Interestingly, our canvas return calculated on the night before the vote was within 0.1% of the actual result. Damn, we pavement-pounders are good at identifying our vote!
So even known unsympathetics you canvassed? Not done that before.
When faced with my sweet-talking, there's no such thing as a lost cause.... 😉
"Mummy, that creepy man with the clipboard is back again..."
My favourite local election occurrence is people who agreed to be paper candidates, may have even asked to be sure they would not win before agreeing, unexpectedly winning. I know several former councillors who say they started out that way.
Happened a bit in 1997.
A few LD and Labour people agreed to be paper candidates and ended up becoming MPs as they weren't expecting the Tory wipeout.
Same thing happens in US from time to time.
For example, in WA State the Democrats went from a pitiful fraction in the legislature in 1931, to a majority of both houses in 1933, thanks to the FDR national landslide in 1932.
Plenty of guys got elected who no one-including themselves-ever expected to win. Including one who turned out to be ineligible to serve in public office (or even to vote) because he'd been convicted of statutory rape. Seems nobody bothered to check him out, because nobody believed he was more than a name on the ballot.
So one of the first orders of business, was for the state house to expel the felon.
Let's have a rule that says in the two weeks prior to the elections, each candidate can hand deliver no more than one leaflet. Rules on similar size of leaflets to apply.
No candidates are to door knock.
Who could possibly bitch about democracy falling over then?
But you can have 20x pizza place leaflets over the same period?
I don't think we should fuck about with the current democratic process given that we have all been through what has been an unprecedented period of restricted freedoms.
Let's keep this one (political leafleting) inviolate.
If a local candidate wants talk to me, he or she can knock on my door (socially distanced of course) or ring me up. A load of printed rubbish that goes straight in the recycling just fills up my bin.
Knocking on doors canvassing is strictly outlawed in our neighbourhood watch scheme
Get to fuck with that what right do they have to do that? None.
It is part of the neighbourhood watch scheme and we have a notice on our front door
So what. It is not outlawed. It is just that you and your neighbours don't want to be canvassed.
Canvassers can decide for themselves whether to adhere to your wishes.
But at the risk of a punch in the nose from BigG.
BigG`s scheme sounds a bit .... blanket ... if you know what I mean.
I`m waiting for Rachel Riley off the telly to knock on my door and I hate to think she`d be deterred by one of Big G`s neighbourhood watch stickers. .
Not pursuing this line of discourse, Stocky, for 2 reasons. (1) Sexist dinosaur territory. (2) I am just gone for Josephine Karlsson off of Spiral. No space for anyone else. Better leave it right there.
At a rate of 20% per week, it'll take until about the second weekend of May for cases to get down from 12k to 1k per day. Except that, now the rate of decline has slowed, there's no particular reason to suppose that it won't continue to do so. And who knows how much worse it might get once the schools go back?
This is just the sort of excuse that the lockdown ultras have been praying for. We have to hope to God that the Prime Minister isn't paying too much attention to them, or we could be imprisoned indefinitely.
As vaccinations reduce transmission and as the proportion vaccinated is only ever going up not down, ultimately R should be coming down fast.
25% of the population is now vaccinated. If that prevents transmission by 67% of those then that means R is reduced by 1/6th already and that's going to continue to increase.
My reliable sources are telling me that hand delivered manifestos will soon be permitted. And great news for those standing as candidates as Councillors of every type of authority (raises hand nervously) - you will only need two nominations. Sid and Doris Bonkers have been duly notified.
Yes, that is a pretty significant change. I'm surprised it wasn't at least 4. The reduction for PCCs may be even more remarkable.
I'm also hoping for some really loony candidates, even by regular standards. Could be some candidates with next to 0 votes as a result.
I wonder if there's an opening for a new party promising a range of really brutal punishments for the bastards who don't clear up the shit left all over the place by their rotten dogs?
Let's have a rule that says in the two weeks prior to the elections, each candidate can hand deliver no more than one leaflet. Rules on similar size of leaflets to apply.
No candidates are to door knock.
Who could possibly bitch about democracy falling over then?
But you can have 20x pizza place leaflets over the same period?
I don't think we should fuck about with the current democratic process given that we have all been through what has been an unprecedented period of restricted freedoms.
Let's keep this one (political leafleting) inviolate.
If a local candidate wants talk to me, he or she can knock on my door (socially distanced of course) or ring me up. A load of printed rubbish that goes straight in the recycling just fills up my bin.
Knocking on doors canvassing is strictly outlawed in our neighbourhood watch scheme
Get to fuck with that what right do they have to do that? None.
It is part of the neighbourhood watch scheme and we have a notice on our front door
So what. It is not outlawed. It is just that you and your neighbours don't want to be canvassed.
Canvassers can decide for themselves whether to adhere to your wishes.
But at the risk of a punch in the nose from BigG.
BigG`s scheme sounds a bit .... blanket ... if you know what I mean.
I`m waiting for Rachel Riley off the telly to knock on my door and I hate to think she`d be deterred by one of Big G`s neighbourhood watch stickers. .
Not pursuing this line of discourse, Stocky, for 2 reasons. (1) Sexist dinosaur territory. (2) I am just gone for Josephine Karlsson off of Spiral. No space for anyone else. Better leave it right there.
My experience with canvassing houses with no canvassing stickers is almost perfectly to a man (almost always an older man) they open the door see you are a salesman (or technically canvasser) and do an exaggerated point to the sticker on the door saying no canvassers whilst looking at you sternly.
Then you say my mistake didn't see it and canvass them anyway....
Then they complain to the local party office or tell you to sod off...
At a rate of 20% per week, it'll take until about the second weekend of May for cases to get down from 12k to 1k per day. Except that, now the rate of decline has slowed, there's no particular reason to suppose that it won't continue to do so. And who knows how much worse it might get once the schools go back?
This is just the sort of excuse that the lockdown ultras have been praying for. We have to hope to God that the Prime Minister isn't paying too much attention to them, or we could be imprisoned indefinitely.
As vaccinations reduce transmission and as the proportion vaccinated is only ever going up not down, ultimately R should be coming down fast.
25% of the population is now vaccinated. If that prevents transmission by 67% of those then that means R is reduced by 1/6th already and that's going to continue to increase.
That 67% number was based on a small sample. It may not be as simple as that in the real world so I wouldn't make the assumption that the vaccines will reduce transmission to that extent with just one dose. We may need to do the second dose to get a useful amount of transmission prevention.
My experience with canvassing houses with no canvassing stickers is almost perfectly to a man (almost always an older man) they open the door see you are a salesman (or technically canvasser) and do an exaggerated point to the sticker on the door saying no canvassers whilst looking at you sternly.
Then you say my mistake didn't see it and canvass them anyway....
Then they complain to the local party office or tell you to sod off...
I wonder why Jezziah and TOPPING don't get told to sod off but you with your charming "you're not a real Tory anyway" attitude do? 🤔
At a rate of 20% per week, it'll take until about the second weekend of May for cases to get down from 12k to 1k per day. Except that, now the rate of decline has slowed, there's no particular reason to suppose that it won't continue to do so. And who knows how much worse it might get once the schools go back?
This is just the sort of excuse that the lockdown ultras have been praying for. We have to hope to God that the Prime Minister isn't paying too much attention to them, or we could be imprisoned indefinitely.
As vaccinations reduce transmission and as the proportion vaccinated is only ever going up not down, ultimately R should be coming down fast.
25% of the population is now vaccinated. If that prevents transmission by 67% of those then that means R is reduced by 1/6th already and that's going to continue to increase.
At 16.875m of c 55m adults in the UK, we are now through 30% of the adult population having had at least their first jab.
Let's have a rule that says in the two weeks prior to the elections, each candidate can hand deliver no more than one leaflet. Rules on similar size of leaflets to apply.
No candidates are to door knock.
Who could possibly bitch about democracy falling over then?
But you can have 20x pizza place leaflets over the same period?
I don't think we should fuck about with the current democratic process given that we have all been through what has been an unprecedented period of restricted freedoms.
Let's keep this one (political leafleting) inviolate.
If a local candidate wants talk to me, he or she can knock on my door (socially distanced of course) or ring me up. A load of printed rubbish that goes straight in the recycling just fills up my bin.
Knocking on doors canvassing is strictly outlawed in our neighbourhood watch scheme
Get to fuck with that what right do they have to do that? None.
It is part of the neighbourhood watch scheme and we have a notice on our front door
So what. It is not outlawed. It is just that you and your neighbours don't want to be canvassed.
Canvassers can decide for themselves whether to adhere to your wishes.
I cannot recall when we were last canvassed or someone cold called at our front door
My house was, once. I had just nipped to the shop and was really disappointed to have missed it! (UKIP, it turns out)
Depends on the seat, I guess.
We went to 35,000 houses in Totnes in 2019 (out of some 43,000 I think it is). And that is quite an effort in quite a rural seat.
Interestingly, our canvas return calculated on the night before the vote was within 0.1% of the actual result. Damn, we pavement-pounders are good at identifying our vote!
So even known unsympathetics you canvassed? Not done that before.
When faced with my sweet-talking, there's no such thing as a lost cause.... 😉
"Mummy, that creepy man with the clipboard is back again..."
"He's Uncle Mark to you...."
Many years later . . . "Yes, it was a dark and stormy night, when Uncle Mark first knocked on our door, canvassing on behalf of the True Blue candidate in the local council by-election. I found him to be MOST persuasive. And then, nine months after that - you were born!"
At a rate of 20% per week, it'll take until about the second weekend of May for cases to get down from 12k to 1k per day. Except that, now the rate of decline has slowed, there's no particular reason to suppose that it won't continue to do so. And who knows how much worse it might get once the schools go back?
This is just the sort of excuse that the lockdown ultras have been praying for. We have to hope to God that the Prime Minister isn't paying too much attention to them, or we could be imprisoned indefinitely.
This time around, it was predicted deaths fall steepest first, then admissions, then finally cases. And so it is.
We'll be fine.
I think the government should stop reporting daily cases when they get beneath a certain level (say 5000).
Just report hospitalisations and deaths.
But they obviously won't do that. We must "protect the NHS" and "follow the science" - and the BMA, for example, wants the case load cut almost to nothing before any significant degree of release from our woeful state of house arrest is permitted. Now, I'm not blasé about cases because this is a nasty disease, and I'm not one of those who thinks that everything should be opened back up at Easter. I'm merely concerned that, having perhaps been too haphazard with restrictions earlier in the pandemic, scared (and scarred) ministers might have swung too far in the other direction and be looking for reasons to stall.
At a rate of 20% per week, it'll take until about the second weekend of May for cases to get down from 12k to 1k per day. Except that, now the rate of decline has slowed, there's no particular reason to suppose that it won't continue to do so. And who knows how much worse it might get once the schools go back?
This is just the sort of excuse that the lockdown ultras have been praying for. We have to hope to God that the Prime Minister isn't paying too much attention to them, or we could be imprisoned indefinitely.
As vaccinations reduce transmission and as the proportion vaccinated is only ever going up not down, ultimately R should be coming down fast.
25% of the population is now vaccinated. If that prevents transmission by 67% of those then that means R is reduced by 1/6th already and that's going to continue to increase.
At 16.875m of c 55m adults in the UK, we are now through 30% of the adult population having had at least their first jab.
And as far as R is concerned a growing % have had covid, even if asymptomatic and so no idea they have had it. Can't remember the latest figure.
At a rate of 20% per week, it'll take until about the second weekend of May for cases to get down from 12k to 1k per day. Except that, now the rate of decline has slowed, there's no particular reason to suppose that it won't continue to do so. And who knows how much worse it might get once the schools go back?
This is just the sort of excuse that the lockdown ultras have been praying for. We have to hope to God that the Prime Minister isn't paying too much attention to them, or we could be imprisoned indefinitely.
As vaccinations reduce transmission and as the proportion vaccinated is only ever going up not down, ultimately R should be coming down fast.
25% of the population is now vaccinated. If that prevents transmission by 67% of those then that means R is reduced by 1/6th already and that's going to continue to increase.
At 16.875m of c 55m adults in the UK, we are now through 30% of the adult population having had at least their first jab.
So an estimated 20% of the adult population won't be passing on the virus now?
My experience with canvassing houses with no canvassing stickers is almost perfectly to a man (almost always an older man) they open the door see you are a salesman (or technically canvasser) and do an exaggerated point to the sticker on the door saying no canvassers whilst looking at you sternly.
Then you say my mistake didn't see it and canvass them anyway....
Then they complain to the local party office or tell you to sod off...
My experience with canvassing houses with no canvassing stickers is almost perfectly to a man (almost always an older man) they open the door see you are a salesman (or technically canvasser) and do an exaggerated point to the sticker on the door saying no canvassers whilst looking at you sternly.
Then you say my mistake didn't see it and canvass them anyway....
Do you modify you technique IF the sign reads "No canvassers - survivors will be prosecuted"?
OR if they've got another sign saying "Please do NOT pet the rabid pit bull"?
At a rate of 20% per week, it'll take until about the second weekend of May for cases to get down from 12k to 1k per day. Except that, now the rate of decline has slowed, there's no particular reason to suppose that it won't continue to do so. And who knows how much worse it might get once the schools go back?
This is just the sort of excuse that the lockdown ultras have been praying for. We have to hope to God that the Prime Minister isn't paying too much attention to them, or we could be imprisoned indefinitely.
This time around, it was predicted deaths fall steepest first, then admissions, then finally cases. And so it is.
We'll be fine.
I think the government should stop reporting daily cases when they get beneath a certain level (say 5000).
Just report hospitalisations and deaths.
But they obviously won't do that. We must "protect the NHS" and "follow the science" - and the BMA, for example, wants the case load cut almost to nothing before any significant degree of release from our woeful state of house arrest is permitted. Now, I'm not blasé about cases because this is a nasty disease, and I'm not one of those who thinks that everything should be opened back up at Easter. I'm merely concerned that, having perhaps been too haphazard with restrictions earlier in the pandemic, scared (and scarred) ministers might have swung too far in the other direction and be looking for reasons to stall.
I think you lot are pessimistic as to how low cases will go naturally. Cases could be below 5k before schools reopen and below 1k before this vaccination round is done
At a rate of 20% per week, it'll take until about the second weekend of May for cases to get down from 12k to 1k per day. Except that, now the rate of decline has slowed, there's no particular reason to suppose that it won't continue to do so. And who knows how much worse it might get once the schools go back?
This is just the sort of excuse that the lockdown ultras have been praying for. We have to hope to God that the Prime Minister isn't paying too much attention to them, or we could be imprisoned indefinitely.
As vaccinations reduce transmission and as the proportion vaccinated is only ever going up not down, ultimately R should be coming down fast.
25% of the population is now vaccinated. If that prevents transmission by 67% of those then that means R is reduced by 1/6th already and that's going to continue to increase.
At 16.875m of c 55m adults in the UK, we are now through 30% of the adult population having had at least their first jab.
So an estimated 20% of the adult population won't be passing on the virus now?
We are going to be beating on this Bastard Bug with big, big hammers.....
Has it ever been proven that political leaflets have an effect, anymore so than junk mail
Of course door knocking is a different matter but in our 'neighbourhood watch area' you cannot even do that
It is interesting. Certainly we put a lot of effort into the leafletting work during the referendum campaign. Not sure if it was wasted or not but the leaflets certainly got a lot of air time with claims and counterclaims about what was on them.
For a GE I think probably they don't make that much difference to most people. For local elections I think they do. There I believe people are far less likely to be following party allegiances and more voting for the individual and what they are saying they will do in power. I certainly pay a lot of attention to what I can find out about the candidates and much of the time it is only the leaflets that give you that information.
So yes, personally I think they do make a difference.
They surely must otherwise no-one would bother. Law of averages, I'm thinking. Send out 1000, impact maybe 15 votes. That's 15 more than if you sent none. There is the odd perverse sort who will claim that all the bumph loses their vote but I think that's mainly performative Victor Meldrew cosplay rather than the actual truth.
As for me, a really good Tory leaflet can get me thinking and asking myself the question - "Can they really be so bad if they can produce such a quality piece of campaign material?"
It's yet to change my vote but it causes a flash of discomfort which I could happily do without.
Tell us some of your own canvassing stories. How was Glenda as a candidate?
By the time I joined the party and volunteered to do stuff it was Tulip. But then I didn't actually do anything much because - and this is totally and poignantly true - I came down with a virus. Not Covid, but quite a nasty affair that hit hard and lingered. A great pity because I was up for it and I think I might have been able to strike a chord with some.
My experience with canvassing houses with no canvassing stickers is almost perfectly to a man (almost always an older man) they open the door see you are a salesman (or technically canvasser) and do an exaggerated point to the sticker on the door saying no canvassers whilst looking at you sternly.
Then you say my mistake didn't see it and canvass them anyway....
Then they complain to the local party office or tell you to sod off...
I wonder why Jezziah and TOPPING don't get told to sod off but you with your charming "you're not a real Tory anyway" attitude do? 🤔
Perhaps just as well for the SCUP he's not allowed to travel to Scotland.
Given the long lagging effect between hospitalisations and deaths it wouldn't surprise me if case numbers show its safe to reopen while deaths are still happening in volume.
At a rate of 20% per week, it'll take until about the second weekend of May for cases to get down from 12k to 1k per day. Except that, now the rate of decline has slowed, there's no particular reason to suppose that it won't continue to do so. And who knows how much worse it might get once the schools go back?
This is just the sort of excuse that the lockdown ultras have been praying for. We have to hope to God that the Prime Minister isn't paying too much attention to them, or we could be imprisoned indefinitely.
This time around, it was predicted deaths fall steepest first, then admissions, then finally cases. And so it is.
Err, what? Have you actually looked at the curves? Cases peaked Jan 1, hospitalisation Jan 10, and deaths Jan 18.
If cases started to rise now, hospitalisations and deaths might as well, with the usual lag. Except this time the vaccines reduce the numbers of hospitalisation and deaths per case, and increasingly so. Hence it would depend on whether case numbers or immunity are rising more quickly.
At a rate of 20% per week, it'll take until about the second weekend of May for cases to get down from 12k to 1k per day. Except that, now the rate of decline has slowed, there's no particular reason to suppose that it won't continue to do so. And who knows how much worse it might get once the schools go back?
This is just the sort of excuse that the lockdown ultras have been praying for. We have to hope to God that the Prime Minister isn't paying too much attention to them, or we could be imprisoned indefinitely.
As vaccinations reduce transmission and as the proportion vaccinated is only ever going up not down, ultimately R should be coming down fast.
25% of the population is now vaccinated. If that prevents transmission by 67% of those then that means R is reduced by 1/6th already and that's going to continue to increase.
At 16.875m of c 55m adults in the UK, we are now through 30% of the adult population having had at least their first jab.
So an estimated 20% of the adult population won't be passing on the virus now?
No, 9m adults have reached their three weeks to hit ~75% immunity to symptoms. The numbers in the onwards transmission part of the study were really tiny, there's no way we can say that two thirds of that 9m are unable to pass it to other people if they are infected by don't experience symptoms.
The vaccine is great and the government is doing an amazing job at getting it out there but lets not get ahead of ourselves with pronouncements such as 20% of adults can no longer pass it to other people, that just isn't true.
My experience with canvassing houses with no canvassing stickers is almost perfectly to a man (almost always an older man) they open the door see you are a salesman (or technically canvasser) and do an exaggerated point to the sticker on the door saying no canvassers whilst looking at you sternly.
Then you say my mistake didn't see it and canvass them anyway....
Then they complain to the local party office or tell you to sod off...
I wonder why Jezziah and TOPPING don't get told to sod off but you with your charming "you're not a real Tory anyway" attitude do? 🤔
I don't now canvass people with no canvassers signs on the door but I know the reaction if you do and if they say they don't get that they are lying
Police in Gloucestershire warned Lib Dem councillors about delivering leaflets. However I understand that advice received from the police chief constable lead on Coronavirus legislation and the Electoral Commission, has said it is legal to deliver leaflets political leaflets. There are some hoops to go through re paid deliveries, but if you go through those councillors / volunteers can deliver.
My experience with canvassing houses with no canvassing stickers is almost perfectly to a man (almost always an older man) they open the door see you are a salesman (or technically canvasser) and do an exaggerated point to the sticker on the door saying no canvassers whilst looking at you sternly.
Then you say my mistake didn't see it and canvass them anyway....
Then they complain to the local party office or tell you to sod off...
I wonder why Jezziah and TOPPING don't get told to sod off but you with your charming "you're not a real Tory anyway" attitude do? 🤔
Naughty. He's out there and I'm sure is charming.
And as for not getting told to sod off. The first time, in 2017, ie post-Brexit I was told (by a hitherto Cons voter) that I was a nazi (I think it had come just after Amber Rudd was talking about foreigner registrations).
Has it ever been proven that political leaflets have an effect, anymore so than junk mail
Of course door knocking is a different matter but in our 'neighbourhood watch area' you cannot even do that
It is interesting. Certainly we put a lot of effort into the leafletting work during the referendum campaign. Not sure if it was wasted or not but the leaflets certainly got a lot of air time with claims and counterclaims about what was on them.
For a GE I think probably they don't make that much difference to most people. For local elections I think they do. There I believe people are far less likely to be following party allegiances and more voting for the individual and what they are saying they will do in power. I certainly pay a lot of attention to what I can find out about the candidates and much of the time it is only the leaflets that give you that information.
So yes, personally I think they do make a difference.
They surely must otherwise no-one would bother. Law of averages, I'm thinking. Send out 1000, impact maybe 15 votes. That's 15 more than if you sent none. There is the odd perverse sort who will claim that all the bumph loses their vote but I think that's mainly performative Victor Meldrew cosplay rather than the actual truth.
As for me, a really good Tory leaflet can get me thinking and asking myself the question - "Can they really be so bad if they can produce such a quality piece of campaign material?"
It's yet to change my vote but it causes a flash of discomfort which I could happily do without.
Tell us some of your own canvassing stories. How was Glenda as a candidate?
By the time I joined the party and volunteered to do stuff it was Tulip. But then I didn't actually do anything much because - and this is totally and poignantly true - I came down with a virus. Not Covid, but quite a nasty affair that hit hard and lingered. A great pity because I was up for it and I think I might have been able to strike a chord with some.
So near and yet so far. I hope you are over it completely now.
At a rate of 20% per week, it'll take until about the second weekend of May for cases to get down from 12k to 1k per day. Except that, now the rate of decline has slowed, there's no particular reason to suppose that it won't continue to do so. And who knows how much worse it might get once the schools go back?
This is just the sort of excuse that the lockdown ultras have been praying for. We have to hope to God that the Prime Minister isn't paying too much attention to them, or we could be imprisoned indefinitely.
As vaccinations reduce transmission and as the proportion vaccinated is only ever going up not down, ultimately R should be coming down fast.
25% of the population is now vaccinated. If that prevents transmission by 67% of those then that means R is reduced by 1/6th already and that's going to continue to increase.
At 16.875m of c 55m adults in the UK, we are now through 30% of the adult population having had at least their first jab.
So an estimated 20% of the adult population won't be passing on the virus now?
No, 9m adults have reached their three weeks to hit ~75% immunity to symptoms. The numbers in the onwards transmission part of the study were really tiny, there's no way we can say that two thirds of that 9m are unable to pass it to other people if they are infected by don't experience symptoms.
The vaccine is great and the government is doing an amazing job at getting it out there but lets not get ahead of ourselves with pronouncements such as 20% of adults can no longer pass it to other people, that just isn't true.
I thought the evidence was 67% reduction in onwards transmission after three weeks?
And yes fair enough to say if so it would only be 6m now and 20% in three weeks time.
At a rate of 20% per week, it'll take until about the second weekend of May for cases to get down from 12k to 1k per day. Except that, now the rate of decline has slowed, there's no particular reason to suppose that it won't continue to do so. And who knows how much worse it might get once the schools go back?
This is just the sort of excuse that the lockdown ultras have been praying for. We have to hope to God that the Prime Minister isn't paying too much attention to them, or we could be imprisoned indefinitely.
As vaccinations reduce transmission and as the proportion vaccinated is only ever going up not down, ultimately R should be coming down fast.
25% of the population is now vaccinated. If that prevents transmission by 67% of those then that means R is reduced by 1/6th already and that's going to continue to increase.
At 16.875m of c 55m adults in the UK, we are now through 30% of the adult population having had at least their first jab.
So an estimated 20% of the adult population won't be passing on the virus now?
Yes but its a vulnerable and isolating 20% so the effect won't be that pronounced.
My favourite local election occurrence is people who agreed to be paper candidates, may have even asked to be sure they would not win before agreeing, unexpectedly winning. I know several former councillors who say they started out that way.
My favourite was the 4 students who stood for the NDP in rural Quebec in 2011. They ended up as Federal MPs as the NDP surged from 4th place to first in the "Orange Crush." Winning 43 % of the vote in the Province. None of them had visited their riding and one wasn't even in the country during the entire campaign.
At a rate of 20% per week, it'll take until about the second weekend of May for cases to get down from 12k to 1k per day. Except that, now the rate of decline has slowed, there's no particular reason to suppose that it won't continue to do so. And who knows how much worse it might get once the schools go back?
This is just the sort of excuse that the lockdown ultras have been praying for. We have to hope to God that the Prime Minister isn't paying too much attention to them, or we could be imprisoned indefinitely.
As vaccinations reduce transmission and as the proportion vaccinated is only ever going up not down, ultimately R should be coming down fast.
25% of the population is now vaccinated. If that prevents transmission by 67% of those then that means R is reduced by 1/6th already and that's going to continue to increase.
At 16.875m of c 55m adults in the UK, we are now through 30% of the adult population having had at least their first jab.
So an estimated 20% of the adult population won't be passing on the virus now?
No, 9m adults have reached their three weeks to hit ~75% immunity to symptoms. The numbers in the onwards transmission part of the study were really tiny, there's no way we can say that two thirds of that 9m are unable to pass it to other people if they are infected by don't experience symptoms.
The vaccine is great and the government is doing an amazing job at getting it out there but lets not get ahead of ourselves with pronouncements such as 20% of adults can no longer pass it to other people, that just isn't true.
I thought the evidence was 67% reduction in onwards transmission after three weeks?
And yes fair enough to say if so it would only be 6m now and 20% in three weeks time.
Based on a really tiny sample size with gigantic error bars. We can hope it's true but I think using that number in modelling the R value going forwards would be wrong is it comes with an asterisk.
We should hopefully be getting real world data on this over the next 7-10 days and even in the public data we should see the link between the case rate and the hospitalisation rate break down and in about two weeks that should also extend to the death rate as we see more of that 70+ age group reach immunity from severe symptoms so they no longer enter the funnel.
My reliable sources are telling me that hand delivered manifestos will soon be permitted. And great news for those standing as candidates as Councillors of every type of authority (raises hand nervously) - you will only need two nominations. Sid and Doris Bonkers have been duly notified.
Yes, that is a pretty significant change. I'm surprised it wasn't at least 4. The reduction for PCCs may be even more remarkable.
I'm also hoping for some really loony candidates, even by regular standards. Could be some candidates with next to 0 votes as a result.
I wonder if there's an opening for a new party promising a range of really brutal punishments for the bastards who don't clear up the shit left all over the place by their rotten dogs?
We must pass the idea on to Nigel Farage.
He's barking enough to do it.
How droll. But seriously, might Farage not get too carried away?
I'm looking for a firm but fair approach to dog shit offences. The first time you don't clear up after the dog, insertion of a very large butt plug for a week (into the owner, obviously, not the animal.) For the second offence, a large brand of the poo emoji to be applied to the forehead, plus a £20,000 fine. Only for the third offence would I advocate confiscation of the dog and the public flaying of the offender.
And yes, I know, I'm one of these wet, mushy, soft on crime liberals, but someone has to be.
Has it ever been proven that political leaflets have an effect, anymore so than junk mail
Of course door knocking is a different matter but in our 'neighbourhood watch area' you cannot even do that
It is interesting. Certainly we put a lot of effort into the leafletting work during the referendum campaign. Not sure if it was wasted or not but the leaflets certainly got a lot of air time with claims and counterclaims about what was on them.
For a GE I think probably they don't make that much difference to most people. For local elections I think they do. There I believe people are far less likely to be following party allegiances and more voting for the individual and what they are saying they will do in power. I certainly pay a lot of attention to what I can find out about the candidates and much of the time it is only the leaflets that give you that information.
So yes, personally I think they do make a difference.
They surely must otherwise no-one would bother. Law of averages, I'm thinking. Send out 1000, impact maybe 15 votes. That's 15 more than if you sent none. There is the odd perverse sort who will claim that all the bumph loses their vote but I think that's mainly performative Victor Meldrew cosplay rather than the actual truth.
As for me, a really good Tory leaflet can get me thinking and asking myself the question - "Can they really be so bad if they can produce such a quality piece of campaign material?"
It's yet to change my vote but it causes a flash of discomfort which I could happily do without.
Tell us some of your own canvassing stories. How was Glenda as a candidate?
By the time I joined the party and volunteered to do stuff it was Tulip. But then I didn't actually do anything much because - and this is totally and poignantly true - I came down with a virus. Not Covid, but quite a nasty affair that hit hard and lingered. A great pity because I was up for it and I think I might have been able to strike a chord with some.
So near and yet so far. I hope you are over it completely now.
Edit: the Labour Party of course, that is.
I was infected by Long Con virus and also a short term illness with the Lib Dems once, but I think I fully over both now. Thankfully completely unsusceptible to the vile UKIPitis and seem to have a natural inherited resistance to The Red flu
My experience with canvassing houses with no canvassing stickers is almost perfectly to a man (almost always an older man) they open the door see you are a salesman (or technically canvasser) and do an exaggerated point to the sticker on the door saying no canvassers whilst looking at you sternly.
Then you say my mistake didn't see it and canvass them anyway....
Exactly. Although I have in my time given them a (mild to less mild depending upon their attitude) rebuke about democracy, etc. Which 100% of them responded positively to.
TBH I was selling double glazing (and window washing services another time) so there was limited room to appeal to a higher principle, I mean I could have extolled the virtues of the free market to them I guess...
Police in Gloucestershire warned Lib Dem councillors about delivering leaflets. However I understand that advice received from the police chief constable lead on Coronavirus legislation and the Electoral Commission, has said it is legal to deliver leaflets political leaflets. There are some hoops to go through re paid deliveries, but if you go through those councillors / volunteers can deliver.
LibDems have delivered two leaflets to my door this week.
Yes but its a vulnerable and isolating 20% so the effect won't be that pronounced.
True to some extent, but remember that it also includes a lot of healthcare workers who are both more likely than average to be exposed to the virus and more likely to spread it if they are.
At a rate of 20% per week, it'll take until about the second weekend of May for cases to get down from 12k to 1k per day. Except that, now the rate of decline has slowed, there's no particular reason to suppose that it won't continue to do so. And who knows how much worse it might get once the schools go back?
This is just the sort of excuse that the lockdown ultras have been praying for. We have to hope to God that the Prime Minister isn't paying too much attention to them, or we could be imprisoned indefinitely.
As vaccinations reduce transmission and as the proportion vaccinated is only ever going up not down, ultimately R should be coming down fast.
25% of the population is now vaccinated. If that prevents transmission by 67% of those then that means R is reduced by 1/6th already and that's going to continue to increase.
At 16.875m of c 55m adults in the UK, we are now through 30% of the adult population having had at least their first jab.
So an estimated 20% of the adult population won't be passing on the virus now?
Yes but its a vulnerable and isolating 20% so the effect won't be that pronounced.
That's a fair point, except for the NHS and Care staff who would have a pronounced effect.
And every week that goes by it will be less vulnerable and less shielding people getting protection.
My favourite local election occurrence is people who agreed to be paper candidates, may have even asked to be sure they would not win before agreeing, unexpectedly winning. I know several former councillors who say they started out that way.
Happened a bit in 1997.
A few LD and Labour people agreed to be paper candidates and ended up becoming MPs as they weren't expecting the Tory wipeout.
The lady who won Castle Point for Labour was extremely surprised. And pleased.
Police in Gloucestershire warned Lib Dem councillors about delivering leaflets. However I understand that advice received from the police chief constable lead on Coronavirus legislation and the Electoral Commission, has said it is legal to deliver leaflets political leaflets. There are some hoops to go through re paid deliveries, but if you go through those councillors / volunteers can deliver.
LibDems have delivered two leaflets to my door this week.
At a rate of 20% per week, it'll take until about the second weekend of May for cases to get down from 12k to 1k per day. Except that, now the rate of decline has slowed, there's no particular reason to suppose that it won't continue to do so. And who knows how much worse it might get once the schools go back?
This is just the sort of excuse that the lockdown ultras have been praying for. We have to hope to God that the Prime Minister isn't paying too much attention to them, or we could be imprisoned indefinitely.
As vaccinations reduce transmission and as the proportion vaccinated is only ever going up not down, ultimately R should be coming down fast.
25% of the population is now vaccinated. If that prevents transmission by 67% of those then that means R is reduced by 1/6th already and that's going to continue to increase.
At 16.875m of c 55m adults in the UK, we are now through 30% of the adult population having had at least their first jab.
So an estimated 20% of the adult population won't be passing on the virus now?
Remember the vaccine doesn't have full effect for ~3 weeks I believe
@Philip_Thompson I can't speak for Topping but I can only imagine they were delighted I had come to their door offering PVC replacement services (or window washing)
@SeaShantyIrish2 the more excessive the dog warning signs the cuter and smaller the dog!
@HYUFD Just smile excessively and blink a lot if they get angry at you, they will think that you are stupid and be nice to you.
Comments
Lordy, I did enjoy knocking up as many voters as possible on election day over the years.
Do NOT think they can have it BOTH ways.
I have no idea of your voting intentions.
I always ignore the "no junk mail" and no canvassers notices. I don't recall seeing any "no political canvassers" notices, that said.
But then we arses do respect the democratic process even if people try to undermine it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iowa_caucuses
I was not surprised as he was a very kind person and an excellent mp
Edit: And also a political party I give a damn about. That would help motivate too, of course.
But it evidently worked.
Was there a swing in the seat?
As for me, a really good Tory leaflet can get me thinking and asking myself the question - "Can they really be so bad if they can produce such a quality piece of campaign material?"
It's yet to change my vote but it causes a flash of discomfort which I could happily do without.
A few LD and Labour people agreed to be paper candidates and ended up becoming MPs as they weren't expecting the Tory wipeout.
Here then is my list of the five main things campaigners get up to on polling day:
2. Knocking-up
Political knocking-up means calling on voters to remind them it is polling day and to give them a final personal push both to vote and to vote for us. To make best use of the time spent on this, the people called on are usually a mix of people planning to vote for us – for whom a personal visit helps ensure they actually go to vote and stick with their plan to support us – and also supporters of parties who aren’t in with a chance of winning but whose supporters might tactically switch to us.
Sometimes other groups may be added in, such as if people who signed a local petition overwhelmingly are backing us and so it makes sense also to knock-up those who signed the petition who we don’t have canvass data for.
This is why when knocking-up you shouldn’t be too surprised if you find a few people not voting for us. That’s normal.
The list of names we’re calling on is called, in Liberal Democrat circles, the shuttleworth (after the printing firm that produced the carbon copy paper used for these lists back in pre-computer days).
Knocking-up can also be done over the phone – which is great for getting through geographically dispersed people quickly but is limited by how many people we have usable phone numbers for.
Either way, knocking-up is much more efficient if done using the MiniVAN app (which also keeps data much more secure than using pieces of paper).
https://www.markpack.org.uk/154725/what-happens-on-polling-day/
*And 5000 fewer in hospital too since last friday. THAT is the number that will set us free...
I'm also hoping for some really loony candidates, even by regular standards. Could be some candidates with next to 0 votes as a result.
The LibDems threw an enormous amount of cash at trying to save her. It was one of the reasons we had to go door to door, to identify those who were giving her a personal vote from amongst our former safe voters. There was also an element of appearing cock-sure we were trying to contact all voters. "We understand that you might not vote for us this time, but we have an excellent candidate who we believe will be an excellent representative for all of Totnes' voters, regardless of that vote." The message: he is going to win, so he will be happy to represent you on any issues you might have.
Anthony Mangnall really is a delightful chap. I do not begrudge one moment spent helping him get elected. That he is solidly in favour of tidal lagoon power is merely coincidental....
The idiots already in safe seats do not count.
This is just the sort of excuse that the lockdown ultras have been praying for. We have to hope to God that the Prime Minister isn't paying too much attention to them, or we could be imprisoned indefinitely.
Then you say my mistake didn't see it and canvass them anyway....
We'll be fine.
If someone doesn't want canvassers on their own property then that's their choice. Unless you're standing on a public footpath what right do you have to violate their private property against their own personal explicit wishes?
Just report hospitalisations and deaths.
Besides once they get below that threshold they should keep going down towards zero which would reassure people. Shouldn't people have that information instead of being afraid not knowing what it is, imagining the worst and thinking "what aren't they telling us"?
For example, in WA State the Democrats went from a pitiful fraction in the legislature in 1931, to a majority of both houses in 1933, thanks to the FDR national landslide in 1932.
Plenty of guys got elected who no one-including themselves-ever expected to win. Including one who turned out to be ineligible to serve in public office (or even to vote) because he'd been convicted of statutory rape. Seems nobody bothered to check him out, because nobody believed he was more than a name on the ballot.
So one of the first orders of business, was for the state house to expel the felon.
25% of the population is now vaccinated. If that prevents transmission by 67% of those then that means R is reduced by 1/6th already and that's going to continue to increase.
He's barking enough to do it.
Don't canvas AT ALL on Easter Sunday.
OR if they've got another sign saying "Please do NOT pet the rabid pit bull"?
But that said, they'll be read by even fewer people than ever.
If cases started to rise now, hospitalisations and deaths might as well, with the usual lag. Except this time the vaccines reduce the numbers of hospitalisation and deaths per case, and increasingly so. Hence it would depend on whether case numbers or immunity are rising more quickly.
The vaccine is great and the government is doing an amazing job at getting it out there but lets not get ahead of ourselves with pronouncements such as 20% of adults can no longer pass it to other people, that just isn't true.
And as for not getting told to sod off. The first time, in 2017, ie post-Brexit I was told (by a hitherto Cons voter) that I was a nazi (I think it had come just after Amber Rudd was talking about foreigner registrations).
Edit: the Labour Party of course, that is.
And yes fair enough to say if so it would only be 6m now and 20% in three weeks time.
None of them had visited their riding and one wasn't even in the country during the entire campaign.
https://www.mcgilldaily.com/2011/05/four-mcgill-students-elected-to-parliament/
We should hopefully be getting real world data on this over the next 7-10 days and even in the public data we should see the link between the case rate and the hospitalisation rate break down and in about two weeks that should also extend to the death rate as we see more of that 70+ age group reach immunity from severe symptoms so they no longer enter the funnel.
I'm looking for a firm but fair approach to dog shit offences. The first time you don't clear up after the dog, insertion of a very large butt plug for a week (into the owner, obviously, not the animal.) For the second offence, a large brand of the poo emoji to be applied to the forehead, plus a £20,000 fine. Only for the third offence would I advocate confiscation of the dog and the public flaying of the offender.
And yes, I know, I'm one of these wet, mushy, soft on crime liberals, but someone has to be.
And every week that goes by it will be less vulnerable and less shielding people getting protection.
@SeaShantyIrish2 the more excessive the dog warning signs the cuter and smaller the dog!
@HYUFD Just smile excessively and blink a lot if they get angry at you, they will think that you are stupid and be nice to you.