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The pressure mounts on Johnson ahead of Monday’s “COVID roadmap” statement – politicalbetting.com
The pressure mounts on Johnson ahead of Monday’s “COVID roadmap” statement – politicalbetting.com
With COVID rates halving every two weeks, and cases looking to drop below 1,000 a day by the second week of April the Mail continues its pressure on the PM over his plans to ease the lockdown.
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We're all champing at the bit but the last thing we need medically, and the last thing Johnson needs politically, is to jump the gun and find we're battling higher infection rates again. This has to be, and will be, the final lockdown.
So there will be a lot of noise over the next few days. The Daily Mail and the Telegraph have been constantly moaning about restrictions, until they were made to look stupid, so the PM would be wise to use them to line Larry's litter tray.
I think that after Monday as things gradually ease up the clamour will abate. What people need is hope and that is coming.
Up early this morning watching a fascinating documentary about the RAF Strikes in 1946 protesting against conscripts and volunteers not being demobbed. Involved 50k airmen. One organiser sentenced to 10 years, before a campaign overturned it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-1SkyxdlSR0
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Air_Force_mutiny
A big contrast to the USA's Operation Magic Carpet.
Certainly once my aged relatives have had their second jabs in April/May then I'm not waiting an eternity to visit them. None of us is getting any younger... If the Government wants us to sit on our arses for another six months or God knows how long then it's going to have to resort to more and more Draconian penalties to try to enforce its will.
I think the govt strategy of longish deadlines is a good one, firstly because it was what everyone asked for, and it gives us a period of extra reduction in cases, and more vaccinations to move the trend the right way.
If the Government wants the schools opened then it will either have to yield on getting down to very low case levels, or it will have to lock us up for all of Spring and half the Summer and leave everything but the schools shut. In which case, as I've just written, it will also have to resort to some pretty nasty authoritarianism to try to force the public not to repudiate its rules. I for one am only sitting at home for another six months if they make the risk of getting caught travelling to see relatives so huge that I daren't do it.
And point of order: a zip wire and a tightrope aren't the same thing. So there.
If we know that the next step is X (allowing more meeting outside, say) followed by Y (extending bubbles?) and it's hoped that these will be possible in the next few months, most private individuals will feel broadly OK with it, I think. I can't judge the precariousness of businesses, though.
However, that being said, of course schools were the major driver of
inspectionsinfections* during November and early December, because they were the only places that were open where large numbers of people gathered. So it isn’t absolutely clear cut as to how important they are overall.The question is, to we try and get children in schools 7-10 days earlier and accept another three months of lockdown, or hang fire for those two weeks and potentially have the worst behind us by mid-April?
It is a delicate balancing act and bluntly I have no confidence anyone involved has the judgement to get it right.
*Inspections too, of course, as OFSTED continued to inspect and spread the disease everywhere like the amoral cretins they are, but that was an autocorrect error.
You really do want it to be all over PDQ.
Personally I don't think OGH was ever pro lockdown, he loves his holidays.
The strict answer to that would probably be "as many times as necessary".
However I think the end point is more realistically marked by progress of vaccination.
Perhaps we are looking at a taper, as has been discussed.
Vaccinations ought to be done for the vulnerable by 30/4, add 3 weeks to become live, that's surely when restrictions should be lifted?
I can't see any ethical reason to be locking people down three weeks after that date. Bring the vaccination schedule forward a fortnight and it would be possible to unlock before May Day and the local elections.
The insanity is surely suggestions that we keep with lockdown until July.
Boris Johnson has stripped Michael Gove of his role overseeing Britain’s future relationship with Europe and replaced him with Lord Frost, who negotiated last year’s Brexit trade deal.
In a move that opponents claimed amounted to a “sidelining” of Gove, Downing Street said that Frost would have a seat in cabinet and take responsibility for dealings with Brussels.
He will take Gove’s job as UK chairman of the withdrawal agreement joint committee. Based in the Cabinet Office, Frost will be responsible for talks on easing trade restrictions between Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Downing Street said that he would also be in charge of dealing with post-Brexit trade problems as well as overseeing domestic reform to “maximise” the opportunities of having left the EU.
Brexit was key to Gove’s brief as Cabinet Office minister. He chaired the Brexit operations committee, which is now likely to fall to Frost, 55. Gove will continue to be in charge of civil service reform and liaising with the devolved administrations. The prime minister has put him in charge of a committee to address NHS waiting times, backlogs in the courts and other effects of the pandemic on public services.
One source suggested that Johnson’s decision had not thrilled Gove, 53, who this week was made interim chairman of the partnership council due to oversee operation of the Brexit trade deal.
It has also caused unease among officials in the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office because Frost’s new role includes “co-ordinating relations” with the 27 EU states.
A senior government source said that it made sense to have one minister in charge of all elements of Britain’s relationship with the EU. “I’m sure Michael is not thrilled by this but Lord Frost has the expertise having negotiated the trade deal in the first place and it makes sense for one person to oversee the whole relationship,” they said.
Another source suggested that the move would be followed by a reshuffle this year in which Gove would move to a department such as the Home Office or the Department of Health: “I think there is an understanding that Michael is going to get another big job.”
An opponent of Gove added: “Gove would get a grip on the Home Office, which Boris needs. And it’s a department where things go wrong, so it may help ease him out of the cabinet too.”
Other insiders saw the appointment as a sign of Gove’s waning influence in Downing Street. “Fundamentally his relationship with Boris is still scarred by the 2016 leadership election,” a source said. “The PM just doesn’t trust him.” This is denied by Gove’s allies.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/michael-gove-stripped-of-europe-role-as-brexit-negotiator-david-frost-joins-cabinet-mbswt0dql
Equally, it then becomes more or less a social decision - is it more important to have children in schools, or to lift lockdown a bit earlier?
The trick always was to make sure he set his mind to the right thing, which is where he went tragically wrong at education.
Not one. Regardless of SAGE or any other set of initials.
Why wouldn't they "follow the science" now?
Doesn't matter. It's hospitalisations and deaths.
Infection rates and cases gets us to July in lockdown.
The Plan will talk about Stages. Not tiers or levels as they have been used before.
Stage 1 (8 March) - primary schools open, secondary schools maybe 15 March with enhanced testing. Limited social meeting outside allowed.
Stage 2 (29 March) - non essential retail opens.
Stage 3 (26 April) - pubs restaurants and hotels open. Inside and out. Maximum of two households mixing. Contact details required, mandatory table service, masks when moving around. No curfew or substantial meal. Domestic holidays allowed including going to holiday homes. One metre plus social distancing in operation.
Stage 4 (31 May) - opening of outdoor sporting areas with capacity restricted eg cricket.
Later (1 September) - subject to vaccine progress, return to near normal domestically.
Sadly it may take another few months for the message to get across that post vaccination covid 19 is a bit like the flu or even a cold if the data on serious illness and death holds up.
Why is uncertain. It has even been suggested that several very senior figures at the DfE are fed up with homeschooling their own less than pleasant children and want to quickly farm them back out to teachers.
Sadly, I find this all too plausible.
*Worded carefully, because they have never actually closed.
P.S. it wasn't long enough.
I mean presumably it starts with drinking the lemonade then pissing in some kind of separator, but what comes next?
We are by no means out of the wood yet.
Boris really doesn't have anyone like him. Wherever Gove is put there will be change, controversy and attention. What Boris needs to do is think which part of government he wants that for the most. Its a big call because it is entirely possible that this might well shape the second half of his premiership every bit as much as Brexit did the first half.
The data so far indicates a single dose, followed by a 2-3 week wait, does prevent hospitalisations.
By end May, everyone that wants it will have had a first jab. The most vulnerable a second. The only reason to keep lockdown then is to protect those who have chosen not to have a jab. And no politician is going to say we need to retain lockdown in place to protect them.
With the rollout of the vaccine there is no case for lockdown beyond end May. International travel, yes. But getting on with your "normal" life within GB borders? No reason to stop that.
(NI is a somewhat different case because of its porous border with Ireland. Which is why it is in our interests to donate enough vaccines to Ireland, as soon as all in the UK have had a first dose.)
I don't think its wrong to prioritise education over other issues, do you?
I think the evidence will hold that single jab plus 3 weeks does confer at least some protection. Sadly for some they will fall ill before that happens.
I'm more confident on my timings for nonessential retail and pubs than for secondary schools.
Buried in the middle of this article.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/cricket/2021/02/17/england-will-allow-ipl-players-miss-new-zealand-series/
Sky respond to Channel 4 Test defeat with white-ball win
Channel 4 will not be showing the white-ball leg of England’s tour to India with Sky set to announce they have won the rights after missing out on the Test series.
Sky will show the five Twenty20 internationals and three ODIs starting on March 12 after outbidding rivals for the deal with Star Sports.
Sky were determined not to miss out on the white-ball matches after losing out to Channel 4 with the current series the first time Test cricket has been shown on terrestrial television since 2005.
Sky have also agreed a 12 month deal to show India’s home international cricket including matches against South Africa, West Indies, Sri Lanka and New Zealand as they react strongly to losing the rights for the current England Test series.
Also depends a bit on whether we *can* effectively deliver education (which was not the case in December when one in four children were off school).
That is why it is a tradeoff.
Massive parts of the bricks parts of retail are going to close or in many cases not reopen: what do we do about our town centres?
Millions more will be on what are effectively zero hour contracts or "self employed": how do we protect workers rights?
We have a Tory government, a Tory government, setting up institutions to invest in our future: surely Labour can envisage something more ambitious still in that regard.
Millions and millions are never going back to the office full time: how do ensure that they are working safely, not being exploited, having their privacy protected etc etc? What are the implications for public transport and those businesses left in towns and cities that need workers to provide their custom?
We will have an NHS that is dealing with the worst backlog of work since it was created with many staff stressed and exhausted. How do we address that?
Just a couple of minutes thought produces more issues than you need for a tranche of speeches about the alternative country he wants us to have. Does he really have no ideas at all?
Keep his current post, but be put in charge of all national infrastructure. HS2. Railway reopenings. Fibre optic cabling. Water supplies. Electricity generation and transmission. Road bridge replacements, as most of the existing ones are at the end of their lives.
God knows that will be a hell of a job, but it would be perfectly suited to his talents.
And all of them are of desperate importance and renewal and reform have been delayed for far too long.
I wonder if/when Disney will branch into live sport? Would get a lot of attention for their platform.
Whatever the strengths and weaknesses of my army career I've mentioned none of it. You meanwhile have told us a lot about how you approach the teaching profession.
You're in the wrong job.
Infrastructure Tsar.
So that makes you a liar as well as a fool.
What I object to is having it imposed by diktat to protect the careers of your fellow thick poshos.
When you apologise for lying to me and about me, I’ll engage with you again.
Until then - fuck off.
Also Disney plus is a global brand and sport actually doesn't travel that well except for a couple of exceptions (Soccer being the main one).
Eg originally the UK Disney+ was going to be missing The Simpsons due to Sky owning the rights to it, until Sky and Disney reached an agreement.
Does ESPN get much in the way of fees in this country? I've never thought much about ESPN, it just doesn't seem that significant here.
However Disney + are advertising Star.
https://disney.co.uk/disney-plus-star
It is all very confusing when you consider there's Starz available on Amazon.
Star Plus (another Asian channel) is also owned by the House of Mouse.
Not that it will make any practical difference, of course.
Over a million people got up early to watch the first Test against India.
Opening up, in the sense of returning to what it was like socially in 2019, shouldn't happen for while.
I can’t see what can be done about it given how long it takes to show symptoms, but it underlines how nasty and unusual this virus is.
But, anyway, what let Attlee do as much as he did was his very strong team, which Starmer doesn't have (Annelise who?).
I'll manage.
Flounce all you want, petal. You didn't want to go the extra mile because Union/DfE whatever. You have to live with that, not me. Oh and your pupils, heaven help them. I hope you don't think too many of them are less than pleasant also.
Squandering Marshall Aid I will give you.
(Now there’s a really technical, geeky pun.)
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2021/02/17/sky-hikes-tv-broadband-prices-72-year/
I suppose it’s an example of market failure - given they all have unique content.
Not really sustainable over the long run though. People will start to make choices and the subscriber list will go down.