On the subject of 'solving' Europe by introducing more democracy: I worry that a democracy of competing ideas is impossible in Europe, because it will always be trumped by a democracy of competing national identities. Any given Frenchman (say) may well vote for a German he agrees with over a Frenchman he doesn't, but the French as a whole? I pick on the French only through proximity - you could make the same argument substituting any of the member states. This sort of democracy rarely ends well.
“The Dutch curfew must be lifted immediately, the preliminary relief judge in The Hague concluded.
The curfew has been established on the basis of an emergency law, which states that a cabinet can introduce rules in an emergency without consulting the House of Representatives and the Senate.
But, according to the court, the curfew is not an emergency "as is the case with a dyke breach".
The lifting of the curfew is effective immediately.
According to a spokesperson for the court, an appeal in the case is possible.
The case was filed by the Virus Truth protest group.“
This is a speculative straw in the wind, that I have not really thought about yet politically.
Is the Climate Conference later in the year a potential further challenge for the EC, when Brexit Britain will have done distinctly well on the numbers (C02 per pop)? Amongst European comparables, afaik only France are doing better.
And our self-consciously green parties tend to be euro-enthusiast.
This chap sounds a little surprised, but UK per capita greenhouse gas has been below China for some years.
“Another coronavirus variant that could dodge vaccine-triggered immunity has been identified in the UK, scientists say.
“The strain — called B.1.525 — has been spotted 33 times already but experts say this could be a huge underestimate. It shares the E484K mutation found on both the South African and Brazilian variants, which make the current crop of jabs slightly less effective.
“The variant also carries the Q677H mutation on its crucial spike protein, prompting warnings from scientists that this could make it even more resistant to vaccines. And there are some similarities to the Kent strain, which studies show is up to 70 per cent more infectious.”
CLOSE THE BORDER....
This is going to be great ideological divide of the next year or two isn’t it. Close the border and even with a thorough vaccination programme, you risk becoming Melbourne. Snap lockdowns upon even a single case. The insidious impact on the nation’s psychology and economy then can’t abate, as you will forever be wondering when Timbuktu Covid will bring life suddenly crashing to a halt.
Conversely, you let life and travel go on, noting how many British families are internationally distributed. And you do careful monitoring and sequencing of variants circulating both at home and in the wider world. And stand ready to produce and deliver 15 million tweaked mrna doses in a month if you get sufficiently concerned. All while letting life go on and accepting that some winters the numbers will be worse than others.
I think in 2-3 years time there won't be much to be worried about. There will a solid infrastructure in place for production and distribution of quickly updated vaccines and I am sure a good treatment protocol (hopefully with a load of effective drugs) should you fall ill. Many oldies will still die, like they currently do with other respiratory illnesses, but I would hope they have it down such that we are way way below the 1% fatality rate.
On the subject of 'solving' Europe by introducing more democracy: I worry that a democracy of competing ideas is impossible in Europe, because it will always be trumped by a democracy of competing national identities. Any given Frenchman (say) may well vote for a German he agrees with over a Frenchman he doesn't, but the French as a whole? I pick on the French only through proximity - you could make the same argument substituting any of the member states. This sort of democracy rarely ends well.
There needs to be an EU Demos which, despite massive efforts, just isn’t there yet. That they all speak different languages, must be a big part of that lack of common identity.
This is a speculative straw in the wind, that I have not really thought about yet politically.
Is the Climate Conference later in the year a potential further challenge for the EC, when Brexit Britain will have done distinctly well on the numbers (C02 per pop)? Amongst European comparables, afaik only France are doing better.
And our self-consciously green parties tend to be euro-enthusiast.
This chap sounds a little surprised, but UK per capita greenhouse gas has been below China for some years.
I've always thought to look just at output rather than consumption is kind of cheating. If I buy tat from China, the associated emissions should come under the UK's tally, not China's.
What figures does Boris have in that poll? Better or worse than 35% positive Well approval?
+28 to -3 in six months suggests Skyr has a fundamental problem. Not proving tasty enough to the national palate.
The disapproval line is quite straight, suggesting he has not just been hit by the vaccine roll-out alone, but throughout the pandemic he has failed to project the "leader in waiting" vibe.
On the subject of 'solving' Europe by introducing more democracy: I worry that a democracy of competing ideas is impossible in Europe, because it will always be trumped by a democracy of competing national identities. Any given Frenchman (say) may well vote for a German he agrees with over a Frenchman he doesn't, but the French as a whole? I pick on the French only through proximity - you could make the same argument substituting any of the member states. This sort of democracy rarely ends well.
There needs to be an EU Demos, which, despite massive efforts, just isn’t there yet. That they all speak different languages, must be a big part of that lack of identity.
The USA and the UK are proof that a common language does not a demos make, or make it strong enough to endure at any rate.
I'd say the lies in the (as described by the Guido sockpuppet) attack ad would be motivation enough.
Politicians and their staff can block anyone on twitter that they like, it's only twitter after all. Whether it is worth their time and effort is another matter - I wouldn't bother, I don't see why they don't simply use twitter to disseminate info, but don't otherwise use it, that is don't respond at all. Having got peoples' attention engagement off twitter is better, so no need to block, or reply etc.
This is a speculative straw in the wind, that I have not really thought about yet politically.
Is the Climate Conference later in the year a potential further challenge for the EC, when Brexit Britain will have done distinctly well on the numbers (C02 per pop)? Amongst European comparables, afaik only France are doing better.
And our self-consciously green parties tend to be euro-enthusiast.
This chap sounds a little surprised, but UK per capita greenhouse gas has been below China for some years.
The 'fit and healthy' BBC Radio Two host, 55, says it is 'mind boggling' that she has been offered a jab before younger sister Frances - who has diabetes and complex learning difficulties.
On the subject of 'solving' Europe by introducing more democracy: I worry that a democracy of competing ideas is impossible in Europe, because it will always be trumped by a democracy of competing national identities. Any given Frenchman (say) may well vote for a German he agrees with over a Frenchman he doesn't, but the French as a whole? I pick on the French only through proximity - you could make the same argument substituting any of the member states. This sort of democracy rarely ends well.
That still goes on in the USA, though the number of states means that it's not quite as important. It would almost certainly be a problem in the EU.
I've been avoiding even looking at Toby Young's Lockdown Sceptics site due to being so annoyed by the misinformation he spews, but as he's hit a new low, some of the people I do follow have been incensed by his latest crap:
That's right - Toby's now doing the "I'm only asking the question" crap while implying that the covid vaccine kills. (And repeating the lie that they weren't tested on the old and vulnerable)
For clarity, he's showing a graph of covid infections surging up. Then, about twenty days afterwards, covid deaths surging up. Then, a few days AFTER that, vaccination doses increasing. (You can see the blue line (infections), orange line (deaths) and THEN green line (vaccinations)
My word. What a surprise. Covid deaths rising about twenty days after infection rising. Anyone would think that the link was here, and that there was a lag of about twenty days between infection and death.
Meanwhile, apparently there are "concerns" that vaccinations are having an effect backwards in time, causing side effects that somehow ripple through the space-time continuum and kill people a few days earlier.
I mean, it would be laughable if it wasn't so stupid and dangerous - pandering to antivaxxers right now as we're trying to emerge from a pandemic. Yes, I get that antivaxxers must be a big chunk of Young's Lockdown Sceptic audience, but I didn't realise his morals were so far gone.
We should miss no opportunity to call out anti-vaxxers as twats.
Toby Young, you are being a twat.
I'm not necessarily disagreeing that the above is the case, but I don't see why being sceptical of lockdown should imply being sceptical of vaccines. Personally, my gut feeling (and I am persuadable) is that I am sceptical that anything above the most basic lockdown measures have benefits which outweigh the costs but am very enthusiastic about vaccinating as many people as possible as quickly as possible.
On the subject of 'solving' Europe by introducing more democracy: I worry that a democracy of competing ideas is impossible in Europe, because it will always be trumped by a democracy of competing national identities. Any given Frenchman (say) may well vote for a German he agrees with over a Frenchman he doesn't, but the French as a whole? I pick on the French only through proximity - you could make the same argument substituting any of the member states. This sort of democracy rarely ends well.
There needs to be an EU Demos, which, despite massive efforts, just isn’t there yet. That they all speak different languages, must be a big part of that lack of identity.
The USA and the UK are proof that a common language does not a demos make, or make it strong enough to endure at any rate.
If not arguing that it’s sufficient, I’m arguing that it’s a prerequisite.
“The Dutch curfew must be lifted immediately, the preliminary relief judge in The Hague concluded.
The curfew has been established on the basis of an emergency law, which states that a cabinet can introduce rules in an emergency without consulting the House of Representatives and the Senate.
But, according to the court, the curfew is not an emergency "as is the case with a dyke breach".
The lifting of the curfew is effective immediately.
According to a spokesperson for the court, an appeal in the case is possible.
The case was filed by the Virus Truth protest group.“
The name of that group fills me with foreboding, since it suggests their concerns were not liberty based or proportional measures based, but a search for 'truth', which in such a context usually means conspiracies. I hope that is not the case.
Unless emergency is defined in legislation I'd be curious on what basis the government is allowed to decide what is an emergency, and how a judge determines they were incorrect in that judgement.
What figures does Boris have in that poll? Better or worse than 35% positive Well approval?
+28 to -3 in six months suggests Skyr has a fundamental problem. Not proving tasty enough to the national palate.
The disapproval line is quite straight, suggesting he has not just been hit by the vaccine roll-out alone, but throughout the pandemic he has failed to project the "leader in waiting" vibe.
Poland is witnessing a growth in new coronavirus infections, according to Health Minister Adam Niedzielski.
He says there were over 1,000 more infections on Tuesday than a week earlier, with the average seven-day trend is positive for the first time since mid-November, excluding the post-Christmas anomaly period.
The Health Ministry says there were 5,178 new infections and 196 virus-related deaths in the previous 24 hours.
On Friday, Poland reopened ski slopes and hotels at half capacity, causing more than 20,000 people to flock to the country’s biggest ski resort, Zakopane over the weekend.
---
There is a number of European countries seeing rises e.g. Greece.
I've been avoiding even looking at Toby Young's Lockdown Sceptics site due to being so annoyed by the misinformation he spews, but as he's hit a new low, some of the people I do follow have been incensed by his latest crap:
That's right - Toby's now doing the "I'm only asking the question" crap while implying that the covid vaccine kills. (And repeating the lie that they weren't tested on the old and vulnerable)
For clarity, he's showing a graph of covid infections surging up. Then, about twenty days afterwards, covid deaths surging up. Then, a few days AFTER that, vaccination doses increasing. (You can see the blue line (infections), orange line (deaths) and THEN green line (vaccinations)
My word. What a surprise. Covid deaths rising about twenty days after infection rising. Anyone would think that the link was here, and that there was a lag of about twenty days between infection and death.
Meanwhile, apparently there are "concerns" that vaccinations are having an effect backwards in time, causing side effects that somehow ripple through the space-time continuum and kill people a few days earlier.
I mean, it would be laughable if it wasn't so stupid and dangerous - pandering to antivaxxers right now as we're trying to emerge from a pandemic. Yes, I get that antivaxxers must be a big chunk of Young's Lockdown Sceptic audience, but I didn't realise his morals were so far gone.
We should miss no opportunity to call out anti-vaxxers as twats.
Toby Young, you are being a twat.
I'm not necessarily disagreeing that the above is the case, but I don't see why being sceptical of lockdown should imply being sceptical of vaccines. Personally, my gut feeling (and I am persuadable) is that I am sceptical that anything above the most basic lockdown measures have benefits which outweigh the costs but am very enthusiastic about vaccinating as many people as possible as quickly as possible.
I'm skeptical about the cost/benefit ratio of lockdowns. But until we have the population in general vaccinated, what is the alternative?
I've been avoiding even looking at Toby Young's Lockdown Sceptics site due to being so annoyed by the misinformation he spews, but as he's hit a new low, some of the people I do follow have been incensed by his latest crap:
That's right - Toby's now doing the "I'm only asking the question" crap while implying that the covid vaccine kills. (And repeating the lie that they weren't tested on the old and vulnerable)
For clarity, he's showing a graph of covid infections surging up. Then, about twenty days afterwards, covid deaths surging up. Then, a few days AFTER that, vaccination doses increasing. (You can see the blue line (infections), orange line (deaths) and THEN green line (vaccinations)
My word. What a surprise. Covid deaths rising about twenty days after infection rising. Anyone would think that the link was here, and that there was a lag of about twenty days between infection and death.
Meanwhile, apparently there are "concerns" that vaccinations are having an effect backwards in time, causing side effects that somehow ripple through the space-time continuum and kill people a few days earlier.
I mean, it would be laughable if it wasn't so stupid and dangerous - pandering to antivaxxers right now as we're trying to emerge from a pandemic. Yes, I get that antivaxxers must be a big chunk of Young's Lockdown Sceptic audience, but I didn't realise his morals were so far gone.
We should miss no opportunity to call out anti-vaxxers as twats.
Toby Young, you are being a twat.
I'm not necessarily disagreeing that the above is the case, but I don't see why being sceptical of lockdown should imply being sceptical of vaccines. Personally, my gut feeling (and I am persuadable) is that I am sceptical that anything above the most basic lockdown measures have benefits which outweigh the costs but am very enthusiastic about vaccinating as many people as possible as quickly as possible.
He’s starting to sound like a complete twat, playing to an audience of other twats. Which is a shame, because I’ve generally been supportive of him up until recently, in the face of considerable opposition.
I've been avoiding even looking at Toby Young's Lockdown Sceptics site due to being so annoyed by the misinformation he spews, but as he's hit a new low, some of the people I do follow have been incensed by his latest crap:
That's right - Toby's now doing the "I'm only asking the question" crap while implying that the covid vaccine kills. (And repeating the lie that they weren't tested on the old and vulnerable)
For clarity, he's showing a graph of covid infections surging up. Then, about twenty days afterwards, covid deaths surging up. Then, a few days AFTER that, vaccination doses increasing. (You can see the blue line (infections), orange line (deaths) and THEN green line (vaccinations)
My word. What a surprise. Covid deaths rising about twenty days after infection rising. Anyone would think that the link was here, and that there was a lag of about twenty days between infection and death.
Meanwhile, apparently there are "concerns" that vaccinations are having an effect backwards in time, causing side effects that somehow ripple through the space-time continuum and kill people a few days earlier.
I mean, it would be laughable if it wasn't so stupid and dangerous - pandering to antivaxxers right now as we're trying to emerge from a pandemic. Yes, I get that antivaxxers must be a big chunk of Young's Lockdown Sceptic audience, but I didn't realise his morals were so far gone.
Well Tobes, the slowing in Gibraltar's deaths could be related to the vaccine rollout
(although it's much more likely to be dominated by lockdown and decrease in cases, not long enough between vaccinations taking off and slowing in deaths for vaccinations to have much effect yet)
What figures does Boris have in that poll? Better or worse than 35% positive Well approval?
+28 to -3 in six months suggests Skyr has a fundamental problem. Not proving tasty enough to the national palate.
The disapproval line is quite straight, suggesting he has not just been hit by the vaccine roll-out alone, but throughout the pandemic he has failed to project the "leader in waiting" vibe.
I think it's also pretty comprehensive evidence for what OGH wrote in 2011: look at the positive approval not the net figures.
The positive approval figures have been much steadier than the net figures, though people who refused to give an opinion originally are now much more likely to give a negative one.
Those who refuse to give an opinion are neither positive nor negative but they're not yet at least willing to back a leader and parties get votes primarily from people who are willing to back them.
“The Dutch curfew must be lifted immediately, the preliminary relief judge in The Hague concluded.
The curfew has been established on the basis of an emergency law, which states that a cabinet can introduce rules in an emergency without consulting the House of Representatives and the Senate.
But, according to the court, the curfew is not an emergency "as is the case with a dyke breach".
The lifting of the curfew is effective immediately.
According to a spokesperson for the court, an appeal in the case is possible.
The case was filed by the Virus Truth protest group.“
The name of that group fills me with foreboding, since it suggests their concerns were not liberty based or proportional measures based, but a search for 'truth', which in such a context usually means conspiracies. I hope that is not the case.
Unless emergency is defined in legislation I'd be curious on what basis the government is allowed to decide what is an emergency, and how a judge determines they were incorrect in that judgement.
Possibly the best way to deal with conspiracy theorists is to give them a conspiracy to worry about that will cause no harm yet keep them occupied.
Maybe we should start one that all tin foil manufacturers have been infiltrated by world governments and that now all tinfoil made contains micro holes not visible to the naked eye that let the mind control rays through.
On the subject of 'solving' Europe by introducing more democracy: I worry that a democracy of competing ideas is impossible in Europe, because it will always be trumped by a democracy of competing national identities. Any given Frenchman (say) may well vote for a German he agrees with over a Frenchman he doesn't, but the French as a whole? I pick on the French only through proximity - you could make the same argument substituting any of the member states. This sort of democracy rarely ends well.
There needs to be an EU Demos, which, despite massive efforts, just isn’t there yet. That they all speak different languages, must be a big part of that lack of identity.
The USA and the UK are proof that a common language does not a demos make, or make it strong enough to endure at any rate.
If not arguing that it’s sufficient, I’m arguing that it’s a prerequisite.
Indonesia had 5 official languages (one of them signed) and another 800+ indigenous ones. How's its demos doing?
I've been avoiding even looking at Toby Young's Lockdown Sceptics site due to being so annoyed by the misinformation he spews, but as he's hit a new low, some of the people I do follow have been incensed by his latest crap:
That's right - Toby's now doing the "I'm only asking the question" crap while implying that the covid vaccine kills. (And repeating the lie that they weren't tested on the old and vulnerable)
For clarity, he's showing a graph of covid infections surging up. Then, about twenty days afterwards, covid deaths surging up. Then, a few days AFTER that, vaccination doses increasing. (You can see the blue line (infections), orange line (deaths) and THEN green line (vaccinations)
My word. What a surprise. Covid deaths rising about twenty days after infection rising. Anyone would think that the link was here, and that there was a lag of about twenty days between infection and death.
Meanwhile, apparently there are "concerns" that vaccinations are having an effect backwards in time, causing side effects that somehow ripple through the space-time continuum and kill people a few days earlier.
I mean, it would be laughable if it wasn't so stupid and dangerous - pandering to antivaxxers right now as we're trying to emerge from a pandemic. Yes, I get that antivaxxers must be a big chunk of Young's Lockdown Sceptic audience, but I didn't realise his morals were so far gone.
Well Tobes, the slowing in Gibraltar's deaths could be related to the vaccine rollout
(although it's much more likely to be dominated by lockdown and decrease in cases, not long enough between vaccinations taking off and slowing in deaths for vaccinations to have much effect yet)
Good lord, just had a look at the actual article. So deaths are higher in countries that are rolling out vaccines quicker? Or maybe vaccine rollout is quicker in countries where it's more urgent due to being severely hit. Let me think... Still, it's the same 'logic' that says harsher lockdowns lead to more deaths, as do mask mandates, of course.
One thing the site does give us is a useful list of people who are stupid, immoral, or both.
LOL, Ali 43 from 18 balls, to be England’s highest scorer of the match!
Which says a lot about England’s performance with the bat, and not in a good way.
Next Test, Crawley and Bairstow become available. Do Lawrence and Pope keep their places? What about Burns?
Similarly, do we recall Anderson in place of Broad? Or play Woakes instead of either?
Does Moeen get asked to stay for a bit longer? Or should Dom Bess be asked to return to the side having been told he’s not good enough?
Some difficult questions ahead of the next Test.
But let’s not forget, England did win the first Test. These are questions that can be answered.
Aren't Anderson and Broad alternating ? If Anderson plays, and Moeen (or less likely, a returning Bess) can find some consistent accuracy (both big ifs), then England have a real chance. In both India's and England's match winning innings, it was only two or three batsmen who made significant runs.
I thought Moeen was scheduled to go home after this Test?
A and B may be alternating but if I’m honest Broad didn’t look that dangerous. Archer and Stone have both offered more bite.
Agreed. But Anderson at his best is the real difference. Unfortunately, were he to play every test, he would likely be far less effective. I hadn't realised Moeen was going home after a single game; that's utterly crazy. He was fairly hopeless in terms of accuracy in the first innings, when it mattered, and had just about found some form in the second, when it didn't. If he's not going to play in the next test, what was the point of picking him ?
One position that does look "solved" to me for the near future is wicketkeeper, Foakes looks the real deal. Pope, Butler, Bairstow can compete for a batting spot but Foakes should keep the gloves.
You just know that Buttler shortly will replace him. England have since Stewart, if not before, seen the keeper's place as one for an all rounder. The irony is that in India, Foakes' batting technique is sounder than those who will replace him.
Makes sense to me, and as I've criticised England in the past for overplaying individuals to the subsequent detriment of both them personally and the team, I can't really object.
I've been avoiding even looking at Toby Young's Lockdown Sceptics site due to being so annoyed by the misinformation he spews, but as he's hit a new low, some of the people I do follow have been incensed by his latest crap:
That's right - Toby's now doing the "I'm only asking the question" crap while implying that the covid vaccine kills. (And repeating the lie that they weren't tested on the old and vulnerable)
For clarity, he's showing a graph of covid infections surging up. Then, about twenty days afterwards, covid deaths surging up. Then, a few days AFTER that, vaccination doses increasing. (You can see the blue line (infections), orange line (deaths) and THEN green line (vaccinations)
My word. What a surprise. Covid deaths rising about twenty days after infection rising. Anyone would think that the link was here, and that there was a lag of about twenty days between infection and death.
Meanwhile, apparently there are "concerns" that vaccinations are having an effect backwards in time, causing side effects that somehow ripple through the space-time continuum and kill people a few days earlier.
I mean, it would be laughable if it wasn't so stupid and dangerous - pandering to antivaxxers right now as we're trying to emerge from a pandemic. Yes, I get that antivaxxers must be a big chunk of Young's Lockdown Sceptic audience, but I didn't realise his morals were so far gone.
Well Tobes, the slowing in Gibraltar's deaths could be related to the vaccine rollout
(although it's much more likely to be dominated by lockdown and decrease in cases, not long enough between vaccinations taking off and slowing in deaths for vaccinations to have much effect yet)
I just don't know how he can mentally connect the dots such that a rollout that began after the surge is the cause.
There's a difference between people genuinely asking questions and challenging things, and those who are pushing an agenda and using 'just asking questions' as an excuse. It's like people who say all they are doing is criticising the Israeli state and not being anti-semitic - there's a line there, but you can usually tell when someone is doing the latter, even as they protest they are merely doing the former.
On the subject of 'solving' Europe by introducing more democracy: I worry that a democracy of competing ideas is impossible in Europe, because it will always be trumped by a democracy of competing national identities. Any given Frenchman (say) may well vote for a German he agrees with over a Frenchman he doesn't, but the French as a whole? I pick on the French only through proximity - you could make the same argument substituting any of the member states. This sort of democracy rarely ends well.
There needs to be an EU Demos, which, despite massive efforts, just isn’t there yet. That they all speak different languages, must be a big part of that lack of identity.
The USA and the UK are proof that a common language does not a demos make, or make it strong enough to endure at any rate.
If not arguing that it’s sufficient, I’m arguing that it’s a prerequisite.
Indonesia had 5 official languages (one of them signed) and another 800+ indigenous ones. How's its demos doing?
Reasonably well - its about the only country in South East Asia where we don't know who the next president is....
Edit - not sure where you got '5 official languages' from - there is one lingua franca - Bahasa Indonesia, and regional government sometimes require "dual language" signs - such as Bali. Perhaps a confusion with the 6 official religions?
I've been avoiding even looking at Toby Young's Lockdown Sceptics site due to being so annoyed by the misinformation he spews, but as he's hit a new low, some of the people I do follow have been incensed by his latest crap:
That's right - Toby's now doing the "I'm only asking the question" crap while implying that the covid vaccine kills. (And repeating the lie that they weren't tested on the old and vulnerable)
For clarity, he's showing a graph of covid infections surging up. Then, about twenty days afterwards, covid deaths surging up. Then, a few days AFTER that, vaccination doses increasing. (You can see the blue line (infections), orange line (deaths) and THEN green line (vaccinations)
My word. What a surprise. Covid deaths rising about twenty days after infection rising. Anyone would think that the link was here, and that there was a lag of about twenty days between infection and death.
Meanwhile, apparently there are "concerns" that vaccinations are having an effect backwards in time, causing side effects that somehow ripple through the space-time continuum and kill people a few days earlier.
I mean, it would be laughable if it wasn't so stupid and dangerous - pandering to antivaxxers right now as we're trying to emerge from a pandemic. Yes, I get that antivaxxers must be a big chunk of Young's Lockdown Sceptic audience, but I didn't realise his morals were so far gone.
We should miss no opportunity to call out anti-vaxxers as twats.
Toby Young, you are being a twat.
I'm not necessarily disagreeing that the above is the case, but I don't see why being sceptical of lockdown should imply being sceptical of vaccines. Personally, my gut feeling (and I am persuadable) is that I am sceptical that anything above the most basic lockdown measures have benefits which outweigh the costs but am very enthusiastic about vaccinating as many people as possible as quickly as possible.
His being shrill on lockdowns has now mutated to incorporate bat-shit crazy on vaccines. The perils of this Bastard Bug.
If Toby has any close friends left, they might like to take him to one side and gently suggest he STFU. Otherwise, he will go so far down the line that he will have zero credibility as a public commentator. He is already close to being at "point at laugh". The only further descent is the full David Icke.
What figures does Boris have in that poll? Better or worse than 35% positive Well approval?
+28 to -3 in six months suggests Skyr has a fundamental problem. Not proving tasty enough to the national palate.
The disapproval line is quite straight, suggesting he has not just been hit by the vaccine roll-out alone, but throughout the pandemic he has failed to project the "leader in waiting" vibe.
I think it's also pretty comprehensive evidence for what OGH wrote in 2011: look at the positive approval not the net figures.
The positive approval figures have been much steadier than the net figures, though people who refused to give an opinion originally are now much more likely to give a negative one.
Those who refuse to give an opinion are neither positive nor negative but they're not yet at least willing to back a leader and parties get votes primarily from people who are willing to back them.
Or in simple terms - Keir will never be PM - ever.
“Another coronavirus variant that could dodge vaccine-triggered immunity has been identified in the UK, scientists say.
“The strain — called B.1.525 — has been spotted 33 times already but experts say this could be a huge underestimate. It shares the E484K mutation found on both the South African and Brazilian variants, which make the current crop of jabs slightly less effective.
“The variant also carries the Q677H mutation on its crucial spike protein, prompting warnings from scientists that this could make it even more resistant to vaccines. And there are some similarities to the Kent strain, which studies show is up to 70 per cent more infectious.”
CLOSE THE BORDER....
This is going to be great ideological divide of the next year or two isn’t it. Close the border and even with a thorough vaccination programme, you risk becoming Melbourne. Snap lockdowns upon even a single case. The insidious impact on the nation’s psychology and economy then can’t abate, as you will forever be wondering when Timbuktu Covid will bring life suddenly crashing to a halt.
Conversely, you let life and travel go on, noting how many British families are internationally distributed. And you do careful monitoring and sequencing of variants circulating both at home and in the wider world. And stand ready to produce and deliver 15 million tweaked mrna doses in a month if you get sufficiently concerned. All while letting life go on and accepting that some winters the numbers will be worse than others.
I think in 2-3 years time there won't be much to be worried about. There will a solid infrastructure in place for production and distribution of quickly updated vaccines and I am sure a good treatment protocol (hopefully with a load of effective drugs) should you fall ill. Many oldies will still die, like they currently do with other respiratory illnesses, but I would hope they have it down such that we are way way below the 1% fatality rate.
Its how to get from here to there...
The big new UK plant claims to be able to produce enough doses for every adult in 4 months. Which means groups 1-4 in a month. I don’t know how long it will take to spool up production but if this is true, it’s not clear to me why we would ever need another lockdown or locked borders again for covid-19 once we lift things in the spring.
Other than an extreme application of the precautionary principle of course.
On topic, an enjoyable but also constructive skewering by @Philip_Thompson of our dear President Usureare Fond O' Lyin', who is indeed paying the price of institutional complacency and lack of democratic accountability.
Her recent efforts have provided an object lesson in the lack of inevitability of the victory of the large over the small, breathing startling life into Brexit and creating a kind of foundation myth for Britain's future outside the Europe Union just when we needed one most. And myths are powerful things...
I think (apologies if wrong) that for @Philip_Thompson there are two reasonable positions for the UK: out of EU or properly in with more integration and true EU democracy (directly elected commission president etc) and there's logic to that view.
However, I suspect for many the idea of a directly elected commission president taking on more power would be horrifying as it reduces the sovereignty of the states - the president then has their own mandate and can't be as beholden to national governments.
The vaccine snafu is not a bad example of the limitations of the current approach - the slowness from not really having a mandate and, presumably, reporting back to and negotiating with national reps at each point. In hindsight, things might have gone much better if the original group (Germany, Italy etc) had simply said to other EU nations we're ordering these vaccines at these prices and we can get you in too if you give us your orders in the next X days, but you're not changing anything else. Vaccines procured will be shared by population size. Limit the cooks before they have a chance to spoil the broth
You can imagine a similar problem in the UK where e.g. an NHS Trust works out a great new IT system and is about to sign the contract when central government steams in, says this is great, lets make it NHS wide and every other trust gets a say, with predictable results. In fact, I used to work on data that came from more or less a local (single small Trust) version of Care.Data, which worked, was fast, cheap and led to research that changed national guidance across the whole of the NHS, all done in the time that Care.Data took to achieve nothing.
More in hope than expectation I've just booked ferries to and from N. Uist in June-July. There's a questionnaire asking for various details, one q being 'Which terms do you think best describe you?' One of the options is 'Digital Detox Seeker'.
Now thinking of cancelling altogether, the thought of bumping into a digital detox seeker is just too much.
These sorts of American style attack ads are best left to the Americans. They wouldn't be allowed on British TV and it'll be a pity if they are allowed access to the internet. They are deliberately designed to mislead and the subliminal cuts make it meaningless.
I'd sooner people linked to Guido.
Strange times - this is the second time I have agreed with something Rog has posted in as many days. The first was yesterday evening - can't even remember what it was.
“Another coronavirus variant that could dodge vaccine-triggered immunity has been identified in the UK, scientists say.
“The strain — called B.1.525 — has been spotted 33 times already but experts say this could be a huge underestimate. It shares the E484K mutation found on both the South African and Brazilian variants, which make the current crop of jabs slightly less effective.
“The variant also carries the Q677H mutation on its crucial spike protein, prompting warnings from scientists that this could make it even more resistant to vaccines. And there are some similarities to the Kent strain, which studies show is up to 70 per cent more infectious.”
CLOSE THE BORDER....
This is going to be great ideological divide of the next year or two isn’t it. Close the border and even with a thorough vaccination programme, you risk becoming Melbourne. Snap lockdowns upon even a single case. The insidious impact on the nation’s psychology and economy then can’t abate, as you will forever be wondering when Timbuktu Covid will bring life suddenly crashing to a halt.
Conversely, you let life and travel go on, noting how many British families are internationally distributed. And you do careful monitoring and sequencing of variants circulating both at home and in the wider world. And stand ready to produce and deliver 15 million tweaked mrna doses in a month if you get sufficiently concerned. All while letting life go on and accepting that some winters the numbers will be worse than others.
I think in 2-3 years time there won't be much to be worried about. There will a solid infrastructure in place for production and distribution of quickly updated vaccines and I am sure a good treatment protocol (hopefully with a load of effective drugs) should you fall ill. Many oldies will still die, like they currently do with other respiratory illnesses, but I would hope they have it down such that we are way way below the 1% fatality rate.
Its how to get from here to there...
The big new UK plant claims to be able to produce enough doses for every adult in 4 months. Which means groups 1-4 in a month. I don’t know how long it will take to spool up production but if this is true, it’s not clear to me why we would ever need another lockdown or locked borders again for covid-19 once we lift things in the spring.
Other than an extreme application of the precautionary principle of course.
If case numbers keep falling, we are probably only a couple of months from most restrictions being lifted, apart from the international quarantine. It will happen once there’s no longer massive queues for first doses of the vaccine.
The big danger is the schools. If they can be open for a month without a big spike, then we’re good to go. The vast majority of parents are still not vaccinated.
The quarantine isn’t being lifted until case numbers and vaccination rates catch up elsewhere, plan on domestic holidays this year.
On the subject of 'solving' Europe by introducing more democracy: I worry that a democracy of competing ideas is impossible in Europe, because it will always be trumped by a democracy of competing national identities. Any given Frenchman (say) may well vote for a German he agrees with over a Frenchman he doesn't, but the French as a whole? I pick on the French only through proximity - you could make the same argument substituting any of the member states. This sort of democracy rarely ends well.
There needs to be an EU Demos, which, despite massive efforts, just isn’t there yet. That they all speak different languages, must be a big part of that lack of identity.
The USA and the UK are proof that a common language does not a demos make, or make it strong enough to endure at any rate.
If not arguing that it’s sufficient, I’m arguing that it’s a prerequisite.
Indonesia had 5 official languages (one of them signed) and another 800+ indigenous ones. How's its demos doing?
Reasonably well - its about the only country in South East Asia where we don't know who the next president is....
Edit - not sure where you got '5 official languages' from - there is one lingua franca - Bahasa Indonesia, and regional government sometimes require "dual language" signs - such as Bali. Perhaps a confusion with the 6 official religions?
With Sweden, there are places which currently have worse outcomes, us for a start, but it is so very much worse than any of their neighbours it is quite staggering.
I've been avoiding even looking at Toby Young's Lockdown Sceptics site due to being so annoyed by the misinformation he spews, but as he's hit a new low, some of the people I do follow have been incensed by his latest crap:
That's right - Toby's now doing the "I'm only asking the question" crap while implying that the covid vaccine kills. (And repeating the lie that they weren't tested on the old and vulnerable)
For clarity, he's showing a graph of covid infections surging up. Then, about twenty days afterwards, covid deaths surging up. Then, a few days AFTER that, vaccination doses increasing. (You can see the blue line (infections), orange line (deaths) and THEN green line (vaccinations)
My word. What a surprise. Covid deaths rising about twenty days after infection rising. Anyone would think that the link was here, and that there was a lag of about twenty days between infection and death.
Meanwhile, apparently there are "concerns" that vaccinations are having an effect backwards in time, causing side effects that somehow ripple through the space-time continuum and kill people a few days earlier.
I mean, it would be laughable if it wasn't so stupid and dangerous - pandering to antivaxxers right now as we're trying to emerge from a pandemic. Yes, I get that antivaxxers must be a big chunk of Young's Lockdown Sceptic audience, but I didn't realise his morals were so far gone.
There are Lockdown Skeptics who have avoided denialism and outright mendacity but I'm afraid they are comfortably outnumbered by those who have not.
Simon Calder from London....I presumed we would be joining him from some far flung location where he has just flown to as he bagged a really good deal...and so could you.
On the subject of 'solving' Europe by introducing more democracy: I worry that a democracy of competing ideas is impossible in Europe, because it will always be trumped by a democracy of competing national identities. Any given Frenchman (say) may well vote for a German he agrees with over a Frenchman he doesn't, but the French as a whole? I pick on the French only through proximity - you could make the same argument substituting any of the member states. This sort of democracy rarely ends well.
There needs to be an EU Demos, which, despite massive efforts, just isn’t there yet. That they all speak different languages, must be a big part of that lack of identity.
The USA and the UK are proof that a common language does not a demos make, or make it strong enough to endure at any rate.
If not arguing that it’s sufficient, I’m arguing that it’s a prerequisite.
Indonesia had 5 official languages (one of them signed) and another 800+ indigenous ones. How's its demos doing?
Reasonably well - its about the only country in South East Asia where we don't know who the next president is....
Edit - not sure where you got '5 official languages' from - there is one lingua franca - Bahasa Indonesia, and regional government sometimes require "dual language" signs - such as Bali. Perhaps a confusion with the 6 official religions?
Sorry, I meant Papua New Guinea!
Not to give certain PBers a prolapse, but Wiki
'Official languages
English Hiri Motu PNG Sign Language Tok Pisin'
Their idiomatic English can be charming - violent criminals and murderers are called "rascals"......
These sorts of American style attack ads are best left to the Americans. They wouldn't be allowed on British TV and it'll be a pity if they are allowed access to the internet. They are deliberately designed to mislead and the subliminal cuts make it meaningless.
I'd sooner people linked to Guido.
Strange times - this is the second time I have agreed with something Rog has posted in as many days. The first was yesterday evening - can't even remember what it was.
Surely such a momentous occasion should stick in your memory ?
More in hope than expectation I've just booked ferries to and from N. Uist in June-July. There's a questionnaire asking for various details, one q being 'Which terms do you think best describe you?' One of the options is 'Digital Detox Seeker'.
Now thinking of cancelling altogether, the thought of bumping into a digital detox seeker is just too much.
All you need to do is have your phone in your hand at all times and someone on a digital detox will presumably avoid you like the plague thinking you are on social media all the time, it'll be fine.
More in hope than expectation I've just booked ferries to and from N. Uist in June-July. There's a questionnaire asking for various details, one q being 'Which terms do you think best describe you?' One of the options is 'Digital Detox Seeker'.
Now thinking of cancelling altogether, the thought of bumping into a digital detox seeker is just too much.
They'll be easy to avoid, lugging all that analogue kit around.....
On the subject of 'solving' Europe by introducing more democracy: I worry that a democracy of competing ideas is impossible in Europe, because it will always be trumped by a democracy of competing national identities. Any given Frenchman (say) may well vote for a German he agrees with over a Frenchman he doesn't, but the French as a whole? I pick on the French only through proximity - you could make the same argument substituting any of the member states. This sort of democracy rarely ends well.
There needs to be an EU Demos, which, despite massive efforts, just isn’t there yet. That they all speak different languages, must be a big part of that lack of identity.
The USA and the UK are proof that a common language does not a demos make, or make it strong enough to endure at any rate.
If not arguing that it’s sufficient, I’m arguing that it’s a prerequisite.
Indonesia had 5 official languages (one of them signed) and another 800+ indigenous ones. How's its demos doing?
Reasonably well - its about the only country in South East Asia where we don't know who the next president is....
Edit - not sure where you got '5 official languages' from - there is one lingua franca - Bahasa Indonesia, and regional government sometimes require "dual language" signs - such as Bali. Perhaps a confusion with the 6 official religions?
Sorry, I meant Papua New Guinea!
Not to give certain PBers a prolapse, but Wiki
'Official languages
English Hiri Motu PNG Sign Language Tok Pisin'
Their idiomatic English can be charming - violent criminals and murderers are called "rascals"......
More in hope than expectation I've just booked ferries to and from N. Uist in June-July. There's a questionnaire asking for various details, one q being 'Which terms do you think best describe you?' One of the options is 'Digital Detox Seeker'.
Now thinking of cancelling altogether, the thought of bumping into a digital detox seeker is just too much.
Was it just me, or does "bumping into {someone}" and "ferries" suggest.... errrr... an outcome...
I reckon that in a few weeks, once a critical mass of the population have been vaccinated including all the risk categories, it might be possible to open up completely without a new wave of serious illness and hospitalizations.
Several reasons for this. There will be a deterrent to spread created by the level of vaccination and prior infection. Those most vulnerable to serious illness will largely have had the vaccine and be protected. And despite restrictions being lifted behaviour will not go back to what it was. Myself, for example, I will continue with a mask in shops and on public transport, with hand sanitizing, with keeping my distance when out and about, and will be avoiding crowded indoor spaces for quite some time. Lots will be like that. Easily enough to counterbalance the more insouciant and ensure that weighted average societal behaviour remains on the prudent side.
So, yes, Big Bang. Freedom Day. The government won’t choose this option and neither do I think they should. Twice bitten thrice shy. But they probably could do it if they wanted.
On the subject of 'solving' Europe by introducing more democracy: I worry that a democracy of competing ideas is impossible in Europe, because it will always be trumped by a democracy of competing national identities. Any given Frenchman (say) may well vote for a German he agrees with over a Frenchman he doesn't, but the French as a whole? I pick on the French only through proximity - you could make the same argument substituting any of the member states. This sort of democracy rarely ends well.
There needs to be an EU Demos, which, despite massive efforts, just isn’t there yet. That they all speak different languages, must be a big part of that lack of identity.
The USA and the UK are proof that a common language does not a demos make, or make it strong enough to endure at any rate.
If not arguing that it’s sufficient, I’m arguing that it’s a prerequisite.
Indonesia had 5 official languages (one of them signed) and another 800+ indigenous ones. How's its demos doing?
Reasonably well - its about the only country in South East Asia where we don't know who the next president is....
Edit - not sure where you got '5 official languages' from - there is one lingua franca - Bahasa Indonesia, and regional government sometimes require "dual language" signs - such as Bali. Perhaps a confusion with the 6 official religions?
Sorry, I meant Papua New Guinea!
Not to give certain PBers a prolapse, but Wiki
'Official languages
English Hiri Motu PNG Sign Language Tok Pisin'
Their idiomatic English can be charming - violent criminals and murderers are called "rascals"......
Here they are called victims of their difficult upbringing.
On the subject of 'solving' Europe by introducing more democracy: I worry that a democracy of competing ideas is impossible in Europe, because it will always be trumped by a democracy of competing national identities. Any given Frenchman (say) may well vote for a German he agrees with over a Frenchman he doesn't, but the French as a whole? I pick on the French only through proximity - you could make the same argument substituting any of the member states. This sort of democracy rarely ends well.
There needs to be an EU Demos, which, despite massive efforts, just isn’t there yet. That they all speak different languages, must be a big part of that lack of identity.
The USA and the UK are proof that a common language does not a demos make, or make it strong enough to endure at any rate.
If not arguing that it’s sufficient, I’m arguing that it’s a prerequisite.
The stuff about the EU not having a demos is soooooo boring.
Please can we not pretend there is anything insightful or interesting about it repeating it every day?
Perhaps add some nuance. Does the USA have a demos? Does the U.K.? How about India? Please show your working.
On the subject of 'solving' Europe by introducing more democracy: I worry that a democracy of competing ideas is impossible in Europe, because it will always be trumped by a democracy of competing national identities. Any given Frenchman (say) may well vote for a German he agrees with over a Frenchman he doesn't, but the French as a whole? I pick on the French only through proximity - you could make the same argument substituting any of the member states. This sort of democracy rarely ends well.
There needs to be an EU Demos, which, despite massive efforts, just isn’t there yet. That they all speak different languages, must be a big part of that lack of identity.
The USA and the UK are proof that a common language does not a demos make, or make it strong enough to endure at any rate.
If not arguing that it’s sufficient, I’m arguing that it’s a prerequisite.
Indonesia had 5 official languages (one of them signed) and another 800+ indigenous ones. How's its demos doing?
Reasonably well - its about the only country in South East Asia where we don't know who the next president is....
Edit - not sure where you got '5 official languages' from - there is one lingua franca - Bahasa Indonesia, and regional government sometimes require "dual language" signs - such as Bali. Perhaps a confusion with the 6 official religions?
Sorry, I meant Papua New Guinea!
Not to give certain PBers a prolapse, but Wiki
'Official languages
English Hiri Motu PNG Sign Language Tok Pisin'
Their idiomatic English can be charming - violent criminals and murderers are called "rascals"......
There’s fun to be had in studying the language used in English newspapers from around the world. Every country and culture has their own way of saying the same thing.
More in hope than expectation I've just booked ferries to and from N. Uist in June-July. There's a questionnaire asking for various details, one q being 'Which terms do you think best describe you?' One of the options is 'Digital Detox Seeker'.
Now thinking of cancelling altogether, the thought of bumping into a digital detox seeker is just too much.
They'll be easy to avoid, lugging all that analogue kit around.....
“Another coronavirus variant that could dodge vaccine-triggered immunity has been identified in the UK, scientists say.
“The strain — called B.1.525 — has been spotted 33 times already but experts say this could be a huge underestimate. It shares the E484K mutation found on both the South African and Brazilian variants, which make the current crop of jabs slightly less effective.
“The variant also carries the Q677H mutation on its crucial spike protein, prompting warnings from scientists that this could make it even more resistant to vaccines. And there are some similarities to the Kent strain, which studies show is up to 70 per cent more infectious.”
CLOSE THE BORDER....
This is going to be great ideological divide of the next year or two isn’t it. Close the border and even with a thorough vaccination programme, you risk becoming Melbourne. Snap lockdowns upon even a single case. The insidious impact on the nation’s psychology and economy then can’t abate, as you will forever be wondering when Timbuktu Covid will bring life suddenly crashing to a halt.
Conversely, you let life and travel go on, noting how many British families are internationally distributed. And you do careful monitoring and sequencing of variants circulating both at home and in the wider world. And stand ready to produce and deliver 15 million tweaked mrna doses in a month if you get sufficiently concerned. All while letting life go on and accepting that some winters the numbers will be worse than others.
I think in 2-3 years time there won't be much to be worried about. There will a solid infrastructure in place for production and distribution of quickly updated vaccines and I am sure a good treatment protocol (hopefully with a load of effective drugs) should you fall ill. Many oldies will still die, like they currently do with other respiratory illnesses, but I would hope they have it down such that we are way way below the 1% fatality rate.
Its how to get from here to there...
The big new UK plant claims to be able to produce enough doses for every adult in 4 months. Which means groups 1-4 in a month. I don’t know how long it will take to spool up production but if this is true, it’s not clear to me why we would ever need another lockdown or locked borders again for covid-19 once we lift things in the spring.
Other than an extreme application of the precautionary principle of course.
If case numbers keep falling, we are probably only a couple of months from most restrictions being lifted, apart from the international quarantine. It will happen once there’s no longer massive queues for first doses of the vaccine.
The big danger is the schools. If they can be open for a month without a big spike, then we’re good to go. The vast majority of parents are still not vaccinated.
The quarantine isn’t being lifted until case numbers and vaccination rates catch up elsewhere, plan on domestic holidays this year.
Schools will be fine. We're past the point of no return for schools. They're opening and it will be ok.
8 March when schools will reopen all vaccines from priority groups 1-4 will be "live". Plus they're only opening for three weeks then close again for a few more.
12 April schools reopen after Easter. That means anyone who was vaccinated by 22/3 will already have their vaccines "live". That will be the majority of groups 5-9 for their first and much of 1-4 for their second.
On the subject of 'solving' Europe by introducing more democracy: I worry that a democracy of competing ideas is impossible in Europe, because it will always be trumped by a democracy of competing national identities. Any given Frenchman (say) may well vote for a German he agrees with over a Frenchman he doesn't, but the French as a whole? I pick on the French only through proximity - you could make the same argument substituting any of the member states. This sort of democracy rarely ends well.
There needs to be an EU Demos, which, despite massive efforts, just isn’t there yet. That they all speak different languages, must be a big part of that lack of identity.
The USA and the UK are proof that a common language does not a demos make, or make it strong enough to endure at any rate.
If not arguing that it’s sufficient, I’m arguing that it’s a prerequisite.
Indonesia had 5 official languages (one of them signed) and another 800+ indigenous ones. How's its demos doing?
Reasonably well - its about the only country in South East Asia where we don't know who the next president is....
Edit - not sure where you got '5 official languages' from - there is one lingua franca - Bahasa Indonesia, and regional government sometimes require "dual language" signs - such as Bali. Perhaps a confusion with the 6 official religions?
Sorry, I meant Papua New Guinea!
Not to give certain PBers a prolapse, but Wiki
'Official languages
English Hiri Motu PNG Sign Language Tok Pisin'
Their idiomatic English can be charming - violent criminals and murderers are called "rascals"......
Here they are called victims of their difficult upbringing.
I prefer "Members of the Legally Challenged Community"
More in hope than expectation I've just booked ferries to and from N. Uist in June-July. There's a questionnaire asking for various details, one q being 'Which terms do you think best describe you?' One of the options is 'Digital Detox Seeker'.
Now thinking of cancelling altogether, the thought of bumping into a digital detox seeker is just too much.
They'll be easy to avoid, lugging all that analogue kit around.....
On topic, a good article Philip though I disagree with the premise and all of the later posts from others about the EU falling apart. I find that to be a very unlikely scenario, even with all of the internal contradictions there is just to much political capital invested by Paris, Berlin and other capital cities across Europe in the concept of the EU. There's just no way the politicians will allow it to fail and they'll use all of the undemocratic means available to keep it going. France votes down the constitution? No worries, we'll just rebrand it as something else and not allow a vote. Britain votes to leave? No worries let's just pretend that they haven't actually left and ignore any successes they have outside of the EU structures.
There's simply no appetite for admitting that the whole political establishment of Europe has been making such poor decisions for so many years.
What's going to happen without the UK is that you'll get France pushing its own foreign policy agenda without any other major foreign policy power to provide a counterweight and Germany will pursue it's mercantilist trade and economic policies without abandon and the EU will turn into a completely parochial organisation selling itself out to the worst regimes for an extra 0.1% worth of GDP because nothing other than more GDP matters to Germany.
If anything the idea of having no internal competitors for foreign and economic policy within the EU will massively appeal to Paris and Berlin. They both get what they want out of the EU, France projects its power and Germany gets to remake the EU in its image and continues to hollow out Southern Europe with no dissent. For that reason the amount of political capital invested to keep the bandwagon going will continue to rise and it will result in the EU as an organisation limping on from crisis to crisis with no real reform and no real democratic legitimacy.
On the subject of 'solving' Europe by introducing more democracy: I worry that a democracy of competing ideas is impossible in Europe, because it will always be trumped by a democracy of competing national identities. Any given Frenchman (say) may well vote for a German he agrees with over a Frenchman he doesn't, but the French as a whole? I pick on the French only through proximity - you could make the same argument substituting any of the member states. This sort of democracy rarely ends well.
There needs to be an EU Demos, which, despite massive efforts, just isn’t there yet. That they all speak different languages, must be a big part of that lack of identity.
The USA and the UK are proof that a common language does not a demos make, or make it strong enough to endure at any rate.
If not arguing that it’s sufficient, I’m arguing that it’s a prerequisite.
Indonesia had 5 official languages (one of them signed) and another 800+ indigenous ones. How's its demos doing?
Reasonably well - its about the only country in South East Asia where we don't know who the next president is....
Edit - not sure where you got '5 official languages' from - there is one lingua franca - Bahasa Indonesia, and regional government sometimes require "dual language" signs - such as Bali. Perhaps a confusion with the 6 official religions?
Sorry, I meant Papua New Guinea!
Not to give certain PBers a prolapse, but Wiki
'Official languages
English Hiri Motu PNG Sign Language Tok Pisin'
As opposed to the PB official language of Pis Tokin' ?
I've been avoiding even looking at Toby Young's Lockdown Sceptics site due to being so annoyed by the misinformation he spews, but as he's hit a new low, some of the people I do follow have been incensed by his latest crap:
That's right - Toby's now doing the "I'm only asking the question" crap while implying that the covid vaccine kills. (And repeating the lie that they weren't tested on the old and vulnerable)
For clarity, he's showing a graph of covid infections surging up. Then, about twenty days afterwards, covid deaths surging up. Then, a few days AFTER that, vaccination doses increasing. (You can see the blue line (infections), orange line (deaths) and THEN green line (vaccinations)
My word. What a surprise. Covid deaths rising about twenty days after infection rising. Anyone would think that the link was here, and that there was a lag of about twenty days between infection and death.
Meanwhile, apparently there are "concerns" that vaccinations are having an effect backwards in time, causing side effects that somehow ripple through the space-time continuum and kill people a few days earlier.
I mean, it would be laughable if it wasn't so stupid and dangerous - pandering to antivaxxers right now as we're trying to emerge from a pandemic. Yes, I get that antivaxxers must be a big chunk of Young's Lockdown Sceptic audience, but I didn't realise his morals were so far gone.
There are Lockdown Skeptics who have avoided denialism and outright mendacity but I'm afraid they are comfortably outnumbered by those who have not.
I am sceptical in a general sense whether it was necessary or desirable to use the law to regulate who can enter my private home, as opposed to issuing stern advice and asking that everyone follows it - but in the face of outright denialism I choose not to talk about it, because the risks from denialism are too high.
“Another coronavirus variant that could dodge vaccine-triggered immunity has been identified in the UK, scientists say.
“The strain — called B.1.525 — has been spotted 33 times already but experts say this could be a huge underestimate. It shares the E484K mutation found on both the South African and Brazilian variants, which make the current crop of jabs slightly less effective.
“The variant also carries the Q677H mutation on its crucial spike protein, prompting warnings from scientists that this could make it even more resistant to vaccines. And there are some similarities to the Kent strain, which studies show is up to 70 per cent more infectious.”
CLOSE THE BORDER....
This is going to be great ideological divide of the next year or two isn’t it. Close the border and even with a thorough vaccination programme, you risk becoming Melbourne. Snap lockdowns upon even a single case. The insidious impact on the nation’s psychology and economy then can’t abate, as you will forever be wondering when Timbuktu Covid will bring life suddenly crashing to a halt.
Conversely, you let life and travel go on, noting how many British families are internationally distributed. And you do careful monitoring and sequencing of variants circulating both at home and in the wider world. And stand ready to produce and deliver 15 million tweaked mrna doses in a month if you get sufficiently concerned. All while letting life go on and accepting that some winters the numbers will be worse than others.
I think in 2-3 years time there won't be much to be worried about. There will a solid infrastructure in place for production and distribution of quickly updated vaccines and I am sure a good treatment protocol (hopefully with a load of effective drugs) should you fall ill. Many oldies will still die, like they currently do with other respiratory illnesses, but I would hope they have it down such that we are way way below the 1% fatality rate.
Its how to get from here to there...
The big new UK plant claims to be able to produce enough doses for every adult in 4 months. Which means groups 1-4 in a month. I don’t know how long it will take to spool up production but if this is true, it’s not clear to me why we would ever need another lockdown or locked borders again for covid-19 once we lift things in the spring.
Other than an extreme application of the precautionary principle of course.
If case numbers keep falling, we are probably only a couple of months from most restrictions being lifted, apart from the international quarantine. It will happen once there’s no longer massive queues for first doses of the vaccine.
The big danger is the schools. If they can be open for a month without a big spike, then we’re good to go. The vast majority of parents are still not vaccinated.
The quarantine isn’t being lifted until case numbers and vaccination rates catch up elsewhere, plan on domestic holidays this year.
Schools will be fine. We're past the point of no return for schools. They're opening and it will be ok.
8 March when schools will reopen all vaccines from priority groups 1-4 will be "live". Plus they're only opening for three weeks then close again for a few more.
12 April schools reopen after Easter. That means anyone who was vaccinated by 22/3 will already have their vaccines "live". That will be the majority of groups 5-9 for their first and much of 1-4 for their second.
Why on earth are we planning to reopen schools on 8th March and then close them again for Easter? Given how far behind most/many pupils are, it seems odd to me. Maybe cut the Easter break to just a few days?
More in hope than expectation I've just booked ferries to and from N. Uist in June-July. There's a questionnaire asking for various details, one q being 'Which terms do you think best describe you?' One of the options is 'Digital Detox Seeker'.
Now thinking of cancelling altogether, the thought of bumping into a digital detox seeker is just too much.
They'll be easy to avoid, lugging all that analogue kit around.....
Has this been posted? If you use the same polling methodology, 'No' has retaken the lead from 'Yes' in indyref polling in Feb.
Weighting has been changed to take into account self-reported likelihood of voting. Which essentially means enthusiasm counts for more. Like for like, No has taken the lead.
I work in an office with 12 people and over the last 24 hours 4 of them have got their vaccine appointments through, age range 41-61, two with mild asthma.
Perhaps a case of "looking for friends in all the wrong places".
Starmer still has a net positive rating in London and the North and with Labour and LD voters and Remainers on that chart.
His worst ratings though come with Leavers, Tories, Pensioners and people living in the Midlands.
Leavers, Tories, Pensioners does not surprise me, and it's almost one category anyway, but the Midlands is a worry. That was the location of that ghastly and most telling focus group in November 2019 where they all said, "Boris tells it like it is. So refreshing!" Absolutely bizarre set of people. Must be something in the water.
The main threat facing the European Union in my view are the Hungarian and Polish autocracies, and not the vaccine programme. The EU functions on member states acting on the rule of law. It is either a group of liberal democracies, or it's nothing.
Ursula Von der Leyen is an unimpressive Commission President, which demonstrates the office is important. Same can be said for Boris Johnson.
On topic, a good article Philip though I disagree with the premise and all of the later posts from others about the EU falling apart. I find that to be a very unlikely scenario, even with all of the internal contradictions there is just to much political capital invested by Paris, Berlin and other capital cities across Europe in the concept of the EU. There's just no way the politicians will allow it to fail and they'll use all of the undemocratic means available to keep it going. France votes down the constitution? No worries, we'll just rebrand it as something else and not allow a vote. Britain votes to leave? No worries let's just pretend that they haven't actually left and ignore any successes they have outside of the EU structures.
There's simply no appetite for admitting that the whole political establishment of Europe has been making such poor decisions for so many years.
What's going to happen without the UK is that you'll get France pushing its own foreign policy agenda without any other major foreign policy power to provide a counterweight and Germany will pursue it's mercantilist trade and economic policies without abandon and the EU will turn into a completely parochial organisation selling itself out to the worst regimes for an extra 0.1% worth of GDP because nothing other than more GDP matters to Germany.
If anything the idea of having no internal competitors for foreign and economic policy within the EU will massively appeal to Paris and Berlin. They both get what they want out of the EU, France projects its power and Germany gets to remake the EU in its image and continues to hollow out Southern Europe with no dissent. For that reason the amount of political capital invested to keep the bandwagon going will continue to rise and it will result in the EU as an organisation limping on from crisis to crisis with no real reform and no real democratic legitimacy.
Buried within this analysis is clear example of what Britain has “lost”.
It can no longer influence Europe-wide* foreign policy, and has surrendered that position uncontested to France.
As you say, Germany will be happy with this arrangement is long as countries are forced to buy German defence equipment every so often.
*As opposed to EU, as I believe EU foreign policy to be largely fictional.
“Another coronavirus variant that could dodge vaccine-triggered immunity has been identified in the UK, scientists say.
“The strain — called B.1.525 — has been spotted 33 times already but experts say this could be a huge underestimate. It shares the E484K mutation found on both the South African and Brazilian variants, which make the current crop of jabs slightly less effective.
“The variant also carries the Q677H mutation on its crucial spike protein, prompting warnings from scientists that this could make it even more resistant to vaccines. And there are some similarities to the Kent strain, which studies show is up to 70 per cent more infectious.”
CLOSE THE BORDER....
This is going to be great ideological divide of the next year or two isn’t it. Close the border and even with a thorough vaccination programme, you risk becoming Melbourne. Snap lockdowns upon even a single case. The insidious impact on the nation’s psychology and economy then can’t abate, as you will forever be wondering when Timbuktu Covid will bring life suddenly crashing to a halt.
Conversely, you let life and travel go on, noting how many British families are internationally distributed. And you do careful monitoring and sequencing of variants circulating both at home and in the wider world. And stand ready to produce and deliver 15 million tweaked mrna doses in a month if you get sufficiently concerned. All while letting life go on and accepting that some winters the numbers will be worse than others.
I think in 2-3 years time there won't be much to be worried about. There will a solid infrastructure in place for production and distribution of quickly updated vaccines and I am sure a good treatment protocol (hopefully with a load of effective drugs) should you fall ill. Many oldies will still die, like they currently do with other respiratory illnesses, but I would hope they have it down such that we are way way below the 1% fatality rate.
Its how to get from here to there...
The big new UK plant claims to be able to produce enough doses for every adult in 4 months. Which means groups 1-4 in a month. I don’t know how long it will take to spool up production but if this is true, it’s not clear to me why we would ever need another lockdown or locked borders again for covid-19 once we lift things in the spring.
Other than an extreme application of the precautionary principle of course.
If case numbers keep falling, we are probably only a couple of months from most restrictions being lifted, apart from the international quarantine. It will happen once there’s no longer massive queues for first doses of the vaccine.
The big danger is the schools. If they can be open for a month without a big spike, then we’re good to go. The vast majority of parents are still not vaccinated.
The quarantine isn’t being lifted until case numbers and vaccination rates catch up elsewhere, plan on domestic holidays this year.
Schools will be fine. We're past the point of no return for schools. They're opening and it will be ok.
8 March when schools will reopen all vaccines from priority groups 1-4 will be "live". Plus they're only opening for three weeks then close again for a few more.
12 April schools reopen after Easter. That means anyone who was vaccinated by 22/3 will already have their vaccines "live". That will be the majority of groups 5-9 for their first and much of 1-4 for their second.
Why on earth are we planning to reopen schools on 8th March and then close them again for Easter? Given how far behind most/many pupils are, it seems odd to me. Maybe cut the Easter break to just a few days?
For the mental health and development of the children I think it's a great idea for them to be going back personally.
Keeping them confined at home for four months, with the long summer holiday still to come, isn't healthy and it's not good for their development.
“Another coronavirus variant that could dodge vaccine-triggered immunity has been identified in the UK, scientists say.
“The strain — called B.1.525 — has been spotted 33 times already but experts say this could be a huge underestimate. It shares the E484K mutation found on both the South African and Brazilian variants, which make the current crop of jabs slightly less effective.
“The variant also carries the Q677H mutation on its crucial spike protein, prompting warnings from scientists that this could make it even more resistant to vaccines. And there are some similarities to the Kent strain, which studies show is up to 70 per cent more infectious.”
CLOSE THE BORDER....
This is going to be great ideological divide of the next year or two isn’t it. Close the border and even with a thorough vaccination programme, you risk becoming Melbourne. Snap lockdowns upon even a single case. The insidious impact on the nation’s psychology and economy then can’t abate, as you will forever be wondering when Timbuktu Covid will bring life suddenly crashing to a halt.
Conversely, you let life and travel go on, noting how many British families are internationally distributed. And you do careful monitoring and sequencing of variants circulating both at home and in the wider world. And stand ready to produce and deliver 15 million tweaked mrna doses in a month if you get sufficiently concerned. All while letting life go on and accepting that some winters the numbers will be worse than others.
I think in 2-3 years time there won't be much to be worried about. There will a solid infrastructure in place for production and distribution of quickly updated vaccines and I am sure a good treatment protocol (hopefully with a load of effective drugs) should you fall ill. Many oldies will still die, like they currently do with other respiratory illnesses, but I would hope they have it down such that we are way way below the 1% fatality rate.
Its how to get from here to there...
The big new UK plant claims to be able to produce enough doses for every adult in 4 months. Which means groups 1-4 in a month. I don’t know how long it will take to spool up production but if this is true, it’s not clear to me why we would ever need another lockdown or locked borders again for covid-19 once we lift things in the spring.
Other than an extreme application of the precautionary principle of course.
If case numbers keep falling, we are probably only a couple of months from most restrictions being lifted, apart from the international quarantine. It will happen once there’s no longer massive queues for first doses of the vaccine.
The big danger is the schools. If they can be open for a month without a big spike, then we’re good to go. The vast majority of parents are still not vaccinated.
The quarantine isn’t being lifted until case numbers and vaccination rates catch up elsewhere, plan on domestic holidays this year.
Schools will be fine. We're past the point of no return for schools. They're opening and it will be ok.
8 March when schools will reopen all vaccines from priority groups 1-4 will be "live". Plus they're only opening for three weeks then close again for a few more.
12 April schools reopen after Easter. That means anyone who was vaccinated by 22/3 will already have their vaccines "live". That will be the majority of groups 5-9 for their first and much of 1-4 for their second.
Why on earth are we planning to reopen schools on 8th March and then close them again for Easter? Given how far behind most/many pupils are, it seems odd to me. Maybe cut the Easter break to just a few days?
Changing the Easter school holiday would of course work very well ie restart schools on say Wed 7 April but of course we require flexibility from teachers' unions so no it won't happen...
On topic, a good article Philip though I disagree with the premise and all of the later posts from others about the EU falling apart. I find that to be a very unlikely scenario, even with all of the internal contradictions there is just to much political capital invested by Paris, Berlin and other capital cities across Europe in the concept of the EU. There's just no way the politicians will allow it to fail and they'll use all of the undemocratic means available to keep it going. France votes down the constitution? No worries, we'll just rebrand it as something else and not allow a vote. Britain votes to leave? No worries let's just pretend that they haven't actually left and ignore any successes they have outside of the EU structures.
There's simply no appetite for admitting that the whole political establishment of Europe has been making such poor decisions for so many years.
What's going to happen without the UK is that you'll get France pushing its own foreign policy agenda without any other major foreign policy power to provide a counterweight and Germany will pursue it's mercantilist trade and economic policies without abandon and the EU will turn into a completely parochial organisation selling itself out to the worst regimes for an extra 0.1% worth of GDP because nothing other than more GDP matters to Germany.
If anything the idea of having no internal competitors for foreign and economic policy within the EU will massively appeal to Paris and Berlin. They both get what they want out of the EU, France projects its power and Germany gets to remake the EU in its image and continues to hollow out Southern Europe with no dissent. For that reason the amount of political capital invested to keep the bandwagon going will continue to rise and it will result in the EU as an organisation limping on from crisis to crisis with no real reform and no real democratic legitimacy.
Buried within this analysis is clear example of what Britain has “lost”.
It can no longer influence Europe-wide* foreign policy, and has surrendered that position uncontested to France.
As you say, Germany will be happy with this arrangement is long as countries are forced to buy German defence equipment every so often.
*As opposed to EU, as I believe EU foreign policy to be largely fictional.
This is a speculative straw in the wind, that I have not really thought about yet politically.
Is the Climate Conference later in the year a potential further challenge for the EC, when Brexit Britain will have done distinctly well on the numbers (C02 per pop)? Amongst European comparables, afaik only France are doing better.
And our self-consciously green parties tend to be euro-enthusiast.
This chap sounds a little surprised, but UK per capita greenhouse gas has been below China for some years.
Perhaps a case of "looking for friends in all the wrong places".
Starmer still has a net positive rating in London and the North and with Labour voters and Remainers on that chart.
His worst ratings though come with Leavers, Tories, Pensioners and people living in the Midlands.
So, only behind with the folk he needs to win over.....
As he still has a positive rating in the North he could win back a number of Red Wall seats there to be fair to him
Mandelson is unfortunately popular neither in the North or South. Judging by the reaction, I fear that bringing him back could be a second mis-step by Starmer of the last few months after appearing to fully endorse the Brexit deal. To urban liberals, he represents unaccountable capitalist rather than either social democratic or socialist power, and to Red Wallers general metropolitan privilege, machiavellianism, snobbery and the dominance of a middle class sneering at Old Labour. He may have a couple of useful tips to offer in among the dated ones too, though , ofcourse.
He's got plenty of time to go yet, and had a great year last year, but Starmer needs to considerably up his game. Increasing negative Brexit stories once lockdown is over should help him a bit in his work.
On topic, a good article Philip though I disagree with the premise and all of the later posts from others about the EU falling apart. I find that to be a very unlikely scenario, even with all of the internal contradictions there is just to much political capital invested by Paris, Berlin and other capital cities across Europe in the concept of the EU. There's just no way the politicians will allow it to fail and they'll use all of the undemocratic means available to keep it going. France votes down the constitution? No worries, we'll just rebrand it as something else and not allow a vote. Britain votes to leave? No worries let's just pretend that they haven't actually left and ignore any successes they have outside of the EU structures.
There's simply no appetite for admitting that the whole political establishment of Europe has been making such poor decisions for so many years.
What's going to happen without the UK is that you'll get France pushing its own foreign policy agenda without any other major foreign policy power to provide a counterweight and Germany will pursue it's mercantilist trade and economic policies without abandon and the EU will turn into a completely parochial organisation selling itself out to the worst regimes for an extra 0.1% worth of GDP because nothing other than more GDP matters to Germany.
If anything the idea of having no internal competitors for foreign and economic policy within the EU will massively appeal to Paris and Berlin. They both get what they want out of the EU, France projects its power and Germany gets to remake the EU in its image and continues to hollow out Southern Europe with no dissent. For that reason the amount of political capital invested to keep the bandwagon going will continue to rise and it will result in the EU as an organisation limping on from crisis to crisis with no real reform and no real democratic legitimacy.
Buried within this analysis is clear example of what Britain has “lost”.
It can no longer influence Europe-wide* foreign policy, and has surrendered that position uncontested to France.
As you say, Germany will be happy with this arrangement is long as countries are forced to buy German defence equipment every so often.
*As opposed to EU, as I believe EU foreign policy to be largely fictional.
For the mental health and development of the children I think it's a great idea for them to be going back personally.
Keeping them confined at home for four months, with the long summer holiday still to come, isn't healthy and it's not good for their development.
If it's safe for children to go back they should.
What I find incomprehensible about this whole debate is that everyone, including the government, acts as though the dates of school holidays are set by some rigid law of physics and cannot possibly be changed even when we've had many months of school closures. There's no need for an Easter break longer than Good Friday and Easter Monday, if we've only just reopened schools, and no universal law of nature which dictates that the summer holiday can't be short this year.
Perhaps a case of "looking for friends in all the wrong places".
Starmer still has a net positive rating in London and the North and with Labour and LD voters and Remainers on that chart.
His worst ratings though come with Leavers, Tories, Pensioners and people living in the Midlands.
Leavers, Tories, Pensioners does not surprise me, and it's almost one category anyway, but the Midlands is a worry. That was the location of that ghastly and most telling focus group in November 2019 where they all said, "Boris tells it like it is. So refreshing!" Absolutely bizarre set of people. Must be something in the water.
The strongest Leave vote in the UK in 2016 of course came in the West Midlands, followed by the East Midlands (the North East was third highest) which probably helps explain it.
Indeed Starmer is more popular in the South of England than he is in the Midlands on that polling
I was chatting to a friend in Germany yesterday who predicts the EU will now fall apart
And it was all the work of the genius that is Johnson. Churchill defeated the Axis powers, now Boris has finished the job!
P.S. The EU will survive. Covid has given it a good hiding, but it will return, perhaps with its confidence shaken, and with a few more bumps in the road to come.
The main threat facing the European Union in my view are the Hungarian and Polish autocracies, and not the vaccine programme. The EU functions on member states acting on the rule of law. It is either a group of liberal democracies, or it's nothing.
Ursula Von der Leyen is an unimpressive Commission President, which demonstrates the office is important. Same can be said for Boris Johnson.
Agree. The U.K.’s role should have been to push for this commitment to liberalism.
We have lost that ability, and the risk is that we see an effectively neutral (to Russia, China) power on our doorstep.
I've been avoiding even looking at Toby Young's Lockdown Sceptics site due to being so annoyed by the misinformation he spews, but as he's hit a new low, some of the people I do follow have been incensed by his latest crap:
That's right - Toby's now doing the "I'm only asking the question" crap while implying that the covid vaccine kills. (And repeating the lie that they weren't tested on the old and vulnerable)
For clarity, he's showing a graph of covid infections surging up. Then, about twenty days afterwards, covid deaths surging up. Then, a few days AFTER that, vaccination doses increasing. (You can see the blue line (infections), orange line (deaths) and THEN green line (vaccinations)
My word. What a surprise. Covid deaths rising about twenty days after infection rising. Anyone would think that the link was here, and that there was a lag of about twenty days between infection and death.
Meanwhile, apparently there are "concerns" that vaccinations are having an effect backwards in time, causing side effects that somehow ripple through the space-time continuum and kill people a few days earlier.
I mean, it would be laughable if it wasn't so stupid and dangerous - pandering to antivaxxers right now as we're trying to emerge from a pandemic. Yes, I get that antivaxxers must be a big chunk of Young's Lockdown Sceptic audience, but I didn't realise his morals were so far gone.
There are Lockdown Skeptics who have avoided denialism and outright mendacity but I'm afraid they are comfortably outnumbered by those who have not.
Funny. isn;t it,. how Toby Young is pilloried for asking a question, when certain figures in the BAME community receive no direct criticism whatever for far more serious anti-vaccination propaganda in their communities.
Is it Toby's finest hour? absolutely not. But surely, lets have some balance.
Perhaps a case of "looking for friends in all the wrong places".
Starmer still has a net positive rating in London and the North and with Labour and LD voters and Remainers on that chart.
His worst ratings though come with Leavers, Tories, Pensioners and people living in the Midlands.
Leavers, Tories, Pensioners does not surprise me, and it's almost one category anyway, but the Midlands is a worry. That was the location of that ghastly and most telling focus group in November 2019 where they all said, "Boris tells it like it is. So refreshing!" Absolutely bizarre set of people. Must be something in the water.
The strongest Leave vote in the UK in 2016 of course came in the West Midlands, followed by the East Midlands (the North East was third highest) which probably helps explain it.
Indeed Starmer is more popular in the South of England than he is in the Midlands on that polling
The ghost of Joseph Chamberlain and imperial preference.
Perhaps a case of "looking for friends in all the wrong places".
Starmer still has a net positive rating in London and the North and with Labour voters and Remainers on that chart.
His worst ratings though come with Leavers, Tories, Pensioners and people living in the Midlands.
So, only behind with the folk he needs to win over.....
As he still has a positive rating in the North he could win back a number of Red Wall seats there to be fair to him
Mandelson is unfortunately popular neither in the North or South. Judging by the reaction, I fear that bringing him back could be a second mis-step by Starmer of the last few months after appearing to fully endorse the Brexit deal. To urban liberals, he represents unaccountable capitalist rather than either social democratic or socialist power, and to Red Wallers general metropolitan privilege, machiavellianism, snobbery and the dominance of a middle class sneering at Old Labour. He may have a couple of useful tips in among the dated ones to though , ofcourse.
He's got plenty of time to go yet, and had a great year last year, but Starmer needs to considerably up his game. Increasing negative Brexit stories once lockdown is over should help him a bit in that work.
To be fair to Starmer the latest poll has a 2% Tory lead ie back to 2017 and hung parliament territory
LOL, Ali 43 from 18 balls, to be England’s highest scorer of the match!
Which says a lot about England’s performance with the bat, and not in a good way.
Next Test, Crawley and Bairstow become available. Do Lawrence and Pope keep their places? What about Burns?
Similarly, do we recall Anderson in place of Broad? Or play Woakes instead of either?
Does Moeen get asked to stay for a bit longer? Or should Dom Bess be asked to return to the side having been told he’s not good enough?
Some difficult questions ahead of the next Test.
But let’s not forget, England did win the first Test. These are questions that can be answered.
Aren't Anderson and Broad alternating ? If Anderson plays, and Moeen (or less likely, a returning Bess) can find some consistent accuracy (both big ifs), then England have a real chance. In both India's and England's match winning innings, it was only two or three batsmen who made significant runs.
I thought Moeen was scheduled to go home after this Test?
A and B may be alternating but if I’m honest Broad didn’t look that dangerous. Archer and Stone have both offered more bite.
Agreed. But Anderson at his best is the real difference. Unfortunately, were he to play every test, he would likely be far less effective. I hadn't realised Moeen was going home after a single game; that's utterly crazy. He was fairly hopeless in terms of accuracy in the first innings, when it mattered, and had just about found some form in the second, when it didn't. If he's not going to play in the next test, what was the point of picking him ?
One position that does look "solved" to me for the near future is wicketkeeper, Foakes looks the real deal. Pope, Butler, Bairstow can compete for a batting spot but Foakes should keep the gloves.
You just know that Buttler shortly will replace him. England have since Stewart, if not before, seen the keeper's place as one for an all rounder. The irony is that in India, Foakes' batting technique is sounder than those who will replace him.
Makes sense to me, and as I've criticised England in the past for overplaying individuals to the subsequent detriment of both them personally and the team, I can't really object.
Foakes has always looked like the real deal. He should have been an automatic choice for years. Buttler and Bairstow should simply have been competing for a batting place.
I expect Broad and Anderson will both play under the lights. If Stokes is not fit to bowl I would expect England to bring in Woakes and make do with one less batsman. That may mean playing Pope at three. It's not ideal, but it's not bad either.
“The Dutch curfew must be lifted immediately, the preliminary relief judge in The Hague concluded.
The curfew has been established on the basis of an emergency law, which states that a cabinet can introduce rules in an emergency without consulting the House of Representatives and the Senate.
But, according to the court, the curfew is not an emergency "as is the case with a dyke breach".
The lifting of the curfew is effective immediately.
According to a spokesperson for the court, an appeal in the case is possible.
The case was filed by the Virus Truth protest group.“
The name of that group fills me with foreboding, since it suggests their concerns were not liberty based or proportional measures based, but a search for 'truth', which in such a context usually means conspiracies. I hope that is not the case.
Unless emergency is defined in legislation I'd be curious on what basis the government is allowed to decide what is an emergency, and how a judge determines they were incorrect in that judgement.
Possibly the best way to deal with conspiracy theorists is to give them a conspiracy to worry about that will cause no harm yet keep them occupied.
Maybe we should start one that all tin foil manufacturers have been infiltrated by world governments and that now all tinfoil made contains micro holes not visible to the naked eye that let the mind control rays through.
Even better we could demonstrate that a balloon made of tinfoil will let helium out, showing that there must be holes in it...
On the subject of 'solving' Europe by introducing more democracy: I worry that a democracy of competing ideas is impossible in Europe, because it will always be trumped by a democracy of competing national identities. Any given Frenchman (say) may well vote for a German he agrees with over a Frenchman he doesn't, but the French as a whole? I pick on the French only through proximity - you could make the same argument substituting any of the member states. This sort of democracy rarely ends well.
There needs to be an EU Demos, which, despite massive efforts, just isn’t there yet. That they all speak different languages, must be a big part of that lack of identity.
The USA and the UK are proof that a common language does not a demos make, or make it strong enough to endure at any rate.
If not arguing that it’s sufficient, I’m arguing that it’s a prerequisite.
Indonesia had 5 official languages (one of them signed) and another 800+ indigenous ones. How's its demos doing?
Reasonably well - its about the only country in South East Asia where we don't know who the next president is....
Edit - not sure where you got '5 official languages' from - there is one lingua franca - Bahasa Indonesia, and regional government sometimes require "dual language" signs - such as Bali. Perhaps a confusion with the 6 official religions?
Sorry, I meant Papua New Guinea!
Not to give certain PBers a prolapse, but Wiki
'Official languages
English Hiri Motu PNG Sign Language Tok Pisin'
Their idiomatic English can be charming - violent criminals and murderers are called "rascals"......
That reminds me of the frequent occurrence of "you scums !" in Korean drama subtitles.
For the mental health and development of the children I think it's a great idea for them to be going back personally.
Keeping them confined at home for four months, with the long summer holiday still to come, isn't healthy and it's not good for their development.
If it's safe for children to go back they should.
What I find incomprehensible about this whole debate is that everyone, including the government, acts as though the dates of school holidays are set by some rigid law of physics and cannot possibly be changed even when we've had many months of school closures. There's no need for an Easter break longer than Good Friday and Easter Monday, if we've only just reopened schools, and no universal law of nature which dictates that the summer holiday can't be short this year.
Kirstie Williams attempted to adjust school holidays in Wales last Summer to take account of lockdown easing. The teaching unions were apoplectic with rage and she backed down.
I am not a union basher, but even I thought that was outrageous.
Comments
This sort of democracy rarely ends well.
I'd say the lies in the (as described by the Guido sockpuppet) attack ad would be motivation enough.
The curfew has been established on the basis of an emergency law, which states that a cabinet can introduce rules in an emergency without consulting the House of Representatives and the Senate.
But, according to the court, the curfew is not an emergency "as is the case with a dyke breach".
The lifting of the curfew is effective immediately.
According to a spokesperson for the court, an appeal in the case is possible.
The case was filed by the Virus Truth protest group.“
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56082027
Its how to get from here to there...
The disapproval line is quite straight, suggesting he has not just been hit by the vaccine roll-out alone, but throughout the pandemic he has failed to project the "leader in waiting" vibe.
The 'fit and healthy' BBC Radio Two host, 55, says it is 'mind boggling' that she has been offered a jab before younger sister Frances - who has diabetes and complex learning difficulties.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/femail/article-9262837/Jo-Whiley-reveals-shes-offered-vaccine-vulnerable-sister.html
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/16/jo-whiley-offered-covid-vaccine-before-sister-in-care-home-with-diabetes
And the reason why her sister hasn't offered the vaccine and she has, her sister has had COVID, so can't have it for a month.
Unless emergency is defined in legislation I'd be curious on what basis the government is allowed to decide what is an emergency, and how a judge determines they were incorrect in that judgement.
He says there were over 1,000 more infections on Tuesday than a week earlier, with the average seven-day trend is positive for the first time since mid-November, excluding the post-Christmas anomaly period.
The Health Ministry says there were 5,178 new infections and 196 virus-related deaths in the previous 24 hours.
On Friday, Poland reopened ski slopes and hotels at half capacity, causing more than 20,000 people to flock to the country’s biggest ski resort, Zakopane over the weekend.
---
There is a number of European countries seeing rises e.g. Greece.
Locking the "elderly" in boxes won't work...
(although it's much more likely to be dominated by lockdown and decrease in cases, not long enough between vaccinations taking off and slowing in deaths for vaccinations to have much effect yet)
The positive approval figures have been much steadier than the net figures, though people who refused to give an opinion originally are now much more likely to give a negative one.
Those who refuse to give an opinion are neither positive nor negative but they're not yet at least willing to back a leader and parties get votes primarily from people who are willing to back them.
Maybe we should start one that all tin foil manufacturers have been infiltrated by world governments and that now all tinfoil made contains micro holes not visible to the naked eye that let the mind control rays through.
One thing the site does give us is a useful list of people who are stupid, immoral, or both.
A longer explanation of why Moeen is going home:
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2021/feb/16/moeen-ali-returning-home-as-england-hope-to-recover-from-india-mauling-cricket-second-test
Makes sense to me, and as I've criticised England in the past for overplaying individuals to the subsequent detriment of both them personally and the team, I can't really object.
There's a difference between people genuinely asking questions and challenging things, and those who are pushing an agenda and using 'just asking questions' as an excuse. It's like people who say all they are doing is criticising the Israeli state and not being anti-semitic - there's a line there, but you can usually tell when someone is doing the latter, even as they protest they are merely doing the former.
Edit - not sure where you got '5 official languages' from - there is one lingua franca - Bahasa Indonesia, and regional government sometimes require "dual language" signs - such as Bali. Perhaps a confusion with the 6 official religions?
If Toby has any close friends left, they might like to take him to one side and gently suggest he STFU. Otherwise, he will go so far down the line that he will have zero credibility as a public commentator. He is already close to being at "point at laugh". The only further descent is the full David Icke.
Did we not grow in Q4? No one else seems to have done so. We certainly won't in Q1, may even be Spain like.
Other than an extreme application of the precautionary principle of course.
Her recent efforts have provided an object lesson in the lack of inevitability of the victory of the large over the small, breathing startling life into Brexit and creating a kind of foundation myth for Britain's future outside the Europe Union just when we needed one most. And myths are powerful things...
I think (apologies if wrong) that for @Philip_Thompson there are two reasonable positions for the UK: out of EU or properly in with more integration and true EU democracy (directly elected commission president etc) and there's logic to that view.
However, I suspect for many the idea of a directly elected commission president taking on more power would be horrifying as it reduces the sovereignty of the states - the president then has their own mandate and can't be as beholden to national governments.
The vaccine snafu is not a bad example of the limitations of the current approach - the slowness from not really having a mandate and, presumably, reporting back to and negotiating with national reps at each point. In hindsight, things might have gone much better if the original group (Germany, Italy etc) had simply said to other EU nations we're ordering these vaccines at these prices and we can get you in too if you give us your orders in the next X days, but you're not changing anything else. Vaccines procured will be shared by population size. Limit the cooks before they have a chance to spoil the broth
You can imagine a similar problem in the UK where e.g. an NHS Trust works out a great new IT system and is about to sign the contract when central government steams in, says this is great, lets make it NHS wide and every other trust gets a say, with predictable results. In fact, I used to work on data that came from more or less a local (single small Trust) version of Care.Data, which worked, was fast, cheap and led to research that changed national guidance across the whole of the NHS, all done in the time that Care.Data took to achieve nothing.
Now thinking of cancelling altogether, the thought of bumping into a digital detox seeker is just too much.
Different trajectories though.
The big danger is the schools. If they can be open for a month without a big spike, then we’re good to go. The vast majority of parents are still not vaccinated.
The quarantine isn’t being lifted until case numbers and vaccination rates catch up elsewhere, plan on domestic holidays this year.
Not to give certain PBers a prolapse, but Wiki
'Official languages
English
Hiri Motu
PNG
Sign Language
Tok Pisin'
https://twitter.com/talkRADIO/status/1361606242284707843?s=20
With Sweden, there are places which currently have worse outcomes, us for a start, but it is so very much worse than any of their neighbours it is quite staggering.
{splash}
I reckon that in a few weeks, once a critical mass of the population have been vaccinated including all the risk categories, it might be possible to open up completely without a new wave of serious illness and hospitalizations.
Several reasons for this. There will be a deterrent to spread created by the level of vaccination and prior infection. Those most vulnerable to serious illness will largely have had the vaccine and be protected. And despite restrictions being lifted behaviour will not go back to what it was. Myself, for example, I will continue with a mask in shops and on public transport, with hand sanitizing, with keeping my distance when out and about, and will be avoiding crowded indoor spaces for quite some time. Lots will be like that. Easily enough to counterbalance the more insouciant and ensure that weighted average societal behaviour remains on the prudent side.
So, yes, Big Bang. Freedom Day. The government won’t choose this option and neither do I think they should. Twice bitten thrice shy. But they probably could do it if they wanted.
His worst ratings though come with Leavers, Tories, Pensioners and people living in the Midlands.
Please can we not pretend there is anything insightful or interesting about it repeating it every day?
Perhaps add some nuance.
Does the USA have a demos? Does the U.K.? How about India? Please show your working.
8 March when schools will reopen all vaccines from priority groups 1-4 will be "live". Plus they're only opening for three weeks then close again for a few more.
12 April schools reopen after Easter. That means anyone who was vaccinated by 22/3 will already have their vaccines "live". That will be the majority of groups 5-9 for their first and much of 1-4 for their second.
There's simply no appetite for admitting that the whole political establishment of Europe has been making such poor decisions for so many years.
What's going to happen without the UK is that you'll get France pushing its own foreign policy agenda without any other major foreign policy power to provide a counterweight and Germany will pursue it's mercantilist trade and economic policies without abandon and the EU will turn into a completely parochial organisation selling itself out to the worst regimes for an extra 0.1% worth of GDP because nothing other than more GDP matters to Germany.
If anything the idea of having no internal competitors for foreign and economic policy within the EU will massively appeal to Paris and Berlin. They both get what they want out of the EU, France projects its power and Germany gets to remake the EU in its image and continues to hollow out Southern Europe with no dissent. For that reason the amount of political capital invested to keep the bandwagon going will continue to rise and it will result in the EU as an organisation limping on from crisis to crisis with no real reform and no real democratic legitimacy.
Weighting has been changed to take into account self-reported likelihood of voting. Which essentially means enthusiasm counts for more. Like for like, No has taken the lead.
https://twitter.com/scotfax/status/1361596089850290186
Ursula Von der Leyen is an unimpressive Commission President, which demonstrates the office is important. Same can be said for Boris Johnson.
It can no longer influence Europe-wide* foreign policy, and has surrendered that position uncontested to France.
As you say, Germany will be happy with this arrangement is long as countries are forced to buy German defence equipment every so often.
*As opposed to EU, as I believe EU foreign policy to be largely fictional.
https://twitter.com/YaleMedicine/status/1361386155967582208
Is it because of some prejudice in favour of established practice ?
Keeping them confined at home for four months, with the long summer holiday still to come, isn't healthy and it's not good for their development.
If it's safe for children to go back they should.
https://guernseypress.com/news/2021/02/16/went-to-the-supermarket-and-pub-hours-after-back-in-island/
I don't see anything of value lost there.
Even home fueling makes a significant difference.
He's got plenty of time to go yet, and had a great year last year, but Starmer needs to considerably up his game. Increasing negative Brexit stories once lockdown is over should help him a bit in his work.
https://twitter.com/SimonCalder/status/1361614894991355904?s=20
Edit: I see @rottenborough has made a similar point.
Indeed Starmer is more popular in the South of England than he is in the Midlands on that polling
P.S. The EU will survive. Covid has given it a good hiding, but it will return, perhaps with its confidence shaken, and with a few more bumps in the road to come.
The U.K.’s role should have been to push for this commitment to liberalism.
We have lost that ability, and the risk is that we see an effectively neutral (to Russia, China) power on our doorstep.
https://twitter.com/RossMcCaff/status/1361637030334255107?s=20
Is it Toby's finest hour? absolutely not. But surely, lets have some balance.
https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1361407903069073408?s=20
I expect Broad and Anderson will both play under the lights. If Stokes is not fit to bowl I would expect England to bring in Woakes and make do with one less batsman. That may mean playing Pope at three. It's not ideal, but it's not bad either.
I am not a union basher, but even I thought that was outrageous.