Yawn. There isn't going to be a "federal" Europe Philip. This is just a hobby horse of the extreme ends of the European debate, and those Brexiteers who really don't have the first clue about how Europe, or the EU works. When the EU expanded to the East this "dear" or nightmare was killed off as that trade off. It is of course a favourite canard of the British Brexiteer right as another foreigner-phobe stick to try and convince us that Brexit was not a charter for thickos.
By the way, with respect to your obsession with vaccines (because it is the only apparent good news for Brexit we will hear about it ad nauseam no doubt). If UK was still part of EU we would have probably gone our own way anyway. The MHRA followed the same procedures that it did when leading the way in Europe as a regulator. Our pointless exit from EU would probably have made no difference whatsoever.
Brexit having been done, in my naivety I had thought that discussion of the shortcomings of the EU would diminish. How wrong I was. Brexiteers in particular, having left the EU, have become even more obsessed with it, as evidenced by the sheer volume of commentary on the EU on this site this year.
Anybody who thought that leaving the EU would stop those opposed to it "banging on" about it was as naive as I was.
We are destined to have the EU as part of our political debate for ever, and much more so than had we remained members. As is the case in both Norway and Switzerland.
What is amusing is seeing Brexiters trying to project their prior prejudices about the EU onto the story and re-writing the history to match
Nope, we are discussing our own regulatory reforms and trading strategy as an independent nation now - not the latest EU initiative or regulation that we will be irrevocably bound by from the Commission. Nor are we discussing in tedium every forthcoming European Council and how the UK will be obliged to go along with the next federalist power grab, or try and be a lone wolf. Neither are we getting frustrated about the latest ruling from the ECJ or the challenges of unrestricted and unqualified free movement.
We are talking about the EU's influence on us less, not more. We *are* discussing how to optimise our bilateral relationship with the EU, together with how the EU itself is performing, but that's quite a separate matter - and far more detached.
So your case has dissolved into resting upon a hypothetical. It is almost certain that had the EU-wide process started a few months earlier, and had the necessary authority and budget to act on behalf of all members, they would have secured a better outcome than the one they have. How much better, who can say?
The alternative scenario, of continuing with each country securing its own deals, would surely have delivered a better result for Germany, Italy and France, and almost certainly a worse one for many of the other members.
Why would it have delivered a worse result for many of the other members?
You do realise Serbia is in a better position than every EU country in the International Vaccine Table.
Because it is self evident that with a fixed (or as good as) total of vaccine available, it was a zero sum game. Had Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands progressed and landed their deal with AZN, there would have been less AZN vaccine available now for other EU members (and, possibly, the UK).
Except that the amount of vaccine production wasn't fixed.
- In March last year, the amount of COVID vaccine production capacity was 0. - This year it will be a x billion doses per year.
What is relatively invariant is the amount of vaccine that can be produced *now*. The trajectory was decided months ago....
Brexit having been done, in my naivety I had thought that discussion of the shortcomings of the EU would diminish. How wrong I was. Brexiteers in particular, having left the EU, have become even more obsessed with it, as evidenced by the sheer volume of commentary on the EU on this site this year.
Anybody who thought that leaving the EU would stop those opposed to it "banging on" about it was as naive as I was.
We are destined to have the EU as part of our political debate for ever, and much more so than had we remained members.
I agree with the first part of that, but not the second. The EU will always be with us (as long as it exists anyway) but I think its salience will decline as its influence over us is reduced. Instead of spending a generation banging on about Europe, the Conservatives can now focus on the country's many other problems, most of which don't have a significant European dimension.
Of course, that may be a poisoned chalice.
We'll have to see. But look at the way that when Switzerland tried to do something on its own with its immigration policies, they quickly became embroiled in a wider trade dispute with the EU. Because of its size the EU is able to bully its smaller neighbours (which is wrong, but the US does the same in its sphere). Ironically the circumstance in which you may be right is the one where we maintain close alignment across the board.
Brexit having been done, in my naivety I had thought that discussion of the shortcomings of the EU would diminish. How wrong I was. Brexiteers in particular, having left the EU, have become even more obsessed with it, as evidenced by the sheer volume of commentary on the EU on this site this year.
Anybody who thought that leaving the EU would stop those opposed to it "banging on" about it was as naive as I was.
Maybe I'm wrong here but is it always Brexiteers who incessantly post Brexit tweets and news stories on here on a daily basis? Because I can think of three posters who immediately spring to mind, and none of them are Leave supporters.
FWIW I think the site is far calmer and more collegiate now than it has been in several years, notwithstanding that.
You're right that there are a handful of 'remainers' who keep posting links on the perils of leaving. But they tend to not be supported by much, if any, commentary. The vast majority of actual commentary is from those not favourably inclined towards the EU, I think. Not that those who are pro-EU have been cowed into silence, of course!
Brexit having been done, in my naivety I had thought that discussion of the shortcomings of the EU would diminish. How wrong I was. Brexiteers in particular, having left the EU, have become even more obsessed with it, as evidenced by the sheer volume of commentary on the EU on this site this year.
Anybody who thought that leaving the EU would stop those opposed to it "banging on" about it was as naive as I was.
The EU is our nearest neighbour, of course it will remain relevant to discussions just as America is. Though as was a key point in my header we have far more discussions actually on American politics, American primaries, American elections than we do on their European equivalents.
If as I expect Europe eventually evolves into a proper federation with proper democracy and proper elections then we will talk about it even more. Though it will be as interested observers from the outside, just as we do with our cousins across the pond.
LOL, Ali 43 from 18 balls, to be England’s highest scorer of the match!
Which says a lot about England’s performance with the bat, and not in a good way.
Next Test, Crawley and Bairstow become available. Do Lawrence and Pope keep their places? What about Burns?
Similarly, do we recall Anderson in place of Broad? Or play Woakes instead of either?
Does Moeen get asked to stay for a bit longer? Or should Dom Bess be asked to return to the side having been told he’s not good enough?
Some difficult questions ahead of the next Test.
But let’s not forget, England did win the first Test. These are questions that can be answered.
Aren't Anderson and Broad alternating ? If Anderson plays, and Moeen (or less likely, a returning Bess) can find some consistent accuracy (both big ifs), then England have a real chance. In both India's and England's match winning innings, it was only two or three batsmen who made significant runs.
I thought Moeen was scheduled to go home after this Test?
A and B may be alternating but if I’m honest Broad didn’t look that dangerous. Archer and Stone have both offered more bite.
Agreed. But Anderson at his best is the real difference. Unfortunately, were he to play every test, he would likely be far less effective. I hadn't realised Moeen was going home after a single game; that's utterly crazy. He was fairly hopeless in terms of accuracy in the first innings, when it mattered, and had just about found some form in the second, when it didn't. If he's not going to play in the next test, what was the point of picking him ?
I think it was as the attacking option. Yes he goes for runs, but he also takes wickets. If Leach was bowling dry at the other end, that must have seemed worth the risk.
But it’s not brilliant management of Bess, it has to be said.
The member states say they ceded vacinne negotiation to the Commission out of European "solidarity" over the pandemic, but it's really because they thought they'd get better and quicker results for their citizens. Bigger orders and profiles for the vacinne producing states and quicker deliveries and rollouts for those who were not.
What the EU is afraid of is that they might, now, make a different calculation next time rather than always assuming More Europe delivers better outcomes.
No, that's not how it came about. It was unhappiness from the smaller countries, led by Belgium, at the outline heads of a deal that Germany (in consortium with France, Italy and Netherlands) had already secured with Astrazeneca back in June 2020 for 300 million doses for the four countries that led, at Germany's suggestion, to the procurement process being passed over to the EU. Big mistake by Germany, but it was done for solidarity, not cost. The consequence was that the EU had to start from scratch last summer, and co-ordinate the 27 participants each of which held the decision-making power and, critically, the budget.
They would have been better off had the EU had the authority and budget to have launched and managed the process from the outset.
Yes, quicker deliveries and rollouts for those who were non vacinne producing states. And AZ is not the whole story either - you've left out the Pfizer vaccine and the French one too.
"Solidarity" is emotional hogwash. The EU works through pure power politics.
If the EU had the budget and authority to start with that doesn't mean it'd have made better decisions - in all likelihood it simply would have used its heft to protract negotiations over volume and price, rather than speed.
So your case has dissolved into resting upon a hypothetical. It is almost certain that had the EU-wide process started a few months earlier, and had the necessary authority and budget to act on behalf of all members, they would have secured a better outcome than the one they have. How much better, who can say?
The alternative scenario, of continuing with each country securing its own deals, would surely have delivered a better result for Germany, Italy and France, and almost certainly a worse one for many of the other members.
Since the total amount of vaccine available right now would be the same, either of these alternatives may have put the UK supply back into the pack. Indeed the German consortium might have beaten us to the line with AZN.
I love the way you say my case rests on a hypothetical and then immediately counter with a hypothetical of your own and say with absolute certainty it would have delivered a far better outcome.
Wow, a collector's item this one - a thread piece from Philip Thompson, and a good one too! Well done Philip.
It's hard to argue with the main thrust. To be kind to the EU - and why should we be? - the pandemic caught the EU at an awkward point in its evolution, not quite a State but no longer just a mere trading organisation. At least now we should see what it wants to be and how it intends to go about it. Maybe it could start attending to some of its long-running sores too. How about getting the accounts signed off for a start?
And it needs some better statesmen at the top. I used to like Tusk, but he seems to have disappeared. Barnier impresses but what exactly is his role now that Brexit is done and dusted? UvdL appears to be ore show than substance, despite Philip's heroic defense.
The EU has never been so vulnerable to criticism, even from those of us who think it is fundamentally a good idea. Maybe the pandemic will help it to redefine itself and smarten up its act. Even those of us who stand outside it now would welcome that.
Catch you again later Phil. Got to go out now. Well done again.
End of April for over 50s requires an average of 368,338 jabs per day. With 10.92 million second jabs needed in the mix
It has to be much more than 10.92 million isn't it? It is surely over 14 million?
Not by the end of April though
Why not? He announced today they'd be done by end of April didn't he?
Only 2nd doses required by end of April are those that had first jabs by end of Jan. surely.
As I said on the day Mrs BJO had her jab she was told her 2nd one "could be up to 20 weeks" after first one.
I have had mine in February and been given a date of 4.5.21 for 2nd one
Whoever told you that was being overly pessimistic.
Its been officially confirmed a few times since then they're sticking with a 12 week timescale and unless I misheard Boris committed tonight that all of the 1-4 group second doses will be completed by 30 April. So even if someone got their first jab on 13 February, the second jab is now due by 30 April.
I won't be: I'm booked in for the 1st of May...
Interesting. Which group are you in if you don't mind me asking?
Group 4. I was offered a range of dates and picked a Saturday so I would not need time off work, so I would probably count as having been offered one by the 30th of April.
Brexit having been done, in my naivety I had thought that discussion of the shortcomings of the EU would diminish. How wrong I was. Brexiteers in particular, having left the EU, have become even more obsessed with it, as evidenced by the sheer volume of commentary on the EU on this site this year.
Anybody who thought that leaving the EU would stop those opposed to it "banging on" about it was as naive as I was.
Maybe I'm wrong here but is it always Brexiteers who incessantly post Brexit tweets and news stories on here on a daily basis? Because I can think of three posters who immediately spring to mind, and none of them are Leave supporters.
FWIW I think the site is far calmer and more collegiate now than it has been in several years, notwithstanding that.
You're right that there are a handful of 'remainers' who keep posting links on the perils of leaving. But they tend to not be supported by much, if any, commentary. The vast majority of actual commentary is from those not favourably inclined towards the EU, I think. Not that those who are pro-EU have been cowed into silence, of course!
I don't think the pro-EU side have been cowed into silence!
There are a whole slew of regular posters on here who underline or echo such sentiments of peril.
Maybe this is simply because we notice those who disagree with us more, whilst "banking" those who do not?
Brexit having been done, in my naivety I had thought that discussion of the shortcomings of the EU would diminish. How wrong I was. Brexiteers in particular, having left the EU, have become even more obsessed with it, as evidenced by the sheer volume of commentary on the EU on this site this year.
Anybody who thought that leaving the EU would stop those opposed to it "banging on" about it was as naive as I was.
We are destined to have the EU as part of our political debate for ever, and much more so than had we remained members.
I agree with the first part of that, but not the second. The EU will always be with us (as long as it exists anyway) but I think its salience will decline as its influence over us is reduced. Instead of spending a generation banging on about Europe, the Conservatives can now focus on the country's many other problems, most of which don't have a significant European dimension.
Of course, that may be a poisoned chalice.
We'll have to see. But look at the way that when Switzerland tried to do something on its own with its immigration policies, they quickly became embroiled in a wider trade dispute with the EU. Because of its size the EU is able to bully its smaller neighbours (which is wrong, but the US does the same in its sphere). Ironically the circumstance in which you may be right is the one where we maintain close alignment across the board.
But we are much bigger than Switzerland, and the EU accounts for a much smaller (and shrinking) part of our trade than it does theirs.
Against that, of course, they never made the mistake of joining in the first place, so from that point of view they start from a much better position than we do.
...but the message for now is that there’s possibly a little too much Europe - certainly over the vaccine project - and it needs to be dialled back a bit. How that’s compatible with a single currency, which by its very nature demands much more central financial control, is a great conundrum.
How the Eurozone crisis has played out so far also demonstrates the amount of suffering at least some of the member states are ready to go to in an effort to keep the show on the road, and the capacity of the EU as a whole to make do and muddle through.
This is such a Metroplitan (elitist) armchair analysis. There are actual, ordinary, normal, people living inside this "Eurozone" you know. And they're very disgruntled right now. It's life and death out there. Their elitist politicians are failing them.
Things fall apart The centre cannot hold
This is hysterical.
Funny that the ‘professional’ writers on here are so bereft of original thought that they’re reduced to repeatedly trotting out Yeats’ somewhat over exposed lines.
Brexit having been done, in my naivety I had thought that discussion of the shortcomings of the EU would diminish. How wrong I was. Brexiteers in particular, having left the EU, have become even more obsessed with it, as evidenced by the sheer volume of commentary on the EU on this site this year.
Anybody who thought that leaving the EU would stop those opposed to it "banging on" about it was as naive as I was.
We are destined to have the EU as part of our political debate for ever, and much more so than had we remained members.
I agree with the first part of that, but not the second. The EU will always be with us (as long as it exists anyway) but I think its salience will decline as its influence over us is reduced. Instead of spending a generation banging on about Europe, the Conservatives can now focus on the country's many other problems, most of which don't have a significant European dimension.
Of course, that may be a poisoned chalice.
We'll have to see. But look at the way that when Switzerland tried to do something on its own with its immigration policies, they quickly became embroiled in a wider trade dispute with the EU. Because of its size the EU is able to bully its smaller neighbours (which is wrong, but the US does the same in its sphere). Ironically the circumstance in which you may be right is the one where we maintain close alignment across the board.
Except that the governing party will base its election campaign almost entirely around independence and near enough half the population will vote for it. We all know it's true.
'Near enough half' may indeed vote SNP in the election in 2021.
But in any independence vote which may follow, the vote for independence will be less than 50%. Just like last time.
Don't count on it. If independence was as peripheral an issue as this duff poll suggests then they wouldn't keep voting over and over and over again for politicians who care about nothing else.
There needs to be an independent, coherent Unionist party to counter them. I think there will be in a decade or so.
Labour should do it as they have (virtually) nothing to lose. I think I would use the 'Co-operative Party' mantle solely north of the border to underline that it was a real change. 'We do not seek the breakup of the United Kingdom, but we will put Scotland's interests first, only entering coalition with partners if they're prepared to align with and support our vision for Scotland.'
On a point of order, Labour can't use Co-operative Party. That is a separate political party and isn't a plaything for Labour to mess with...
The member states say they ceded vacinne negotiation to the Commission out of European "solidarity" over the pandemic, but it's really because they thought they'd get better and quicker results for their citizens. Bigger orders and profiles for the vacinne producing states and quicker deliveries and rollouts for those who were not.
What the EU is afraid of is that they might, now, make a different calculation next time rather than always assuming More Europe delivers better outcomes.
No, that's not how it came about. It was unhappiness from the smaller countries, led by Belgium, at the outline heads of a deal that Germany (in consortium with France, Italy and Netherlands) secured with Astrazeneca back in June 2020 for 300 million doses for the four countries that led, at Germany's suggestion, to the procurement process being passed over to the EU. Big mistake by Germany, but it was done for solidarity, not cost. The consequence was that the EU had to start from scratch last summer, and co-ordinate the 27 participants each of which held the decision-making power and, critically, the budget.
They would have been better off had the EU had the authority and budget to have launched and managed the process from the outset.
The mood music from Brussels was that by leveraging the buying power of the whole EU, they were getting better prices. So it may have been seen as a side benefit of solidarity?
For sure. And if we finish this year with Europe all vaccinated, and our death rate still significantly higher than other European countries and with a much bigger bill for our share of the vaccine production, who is to say, in the round, that they weren't right?
The key point however is that Germany proposed the EU-wide process as one of solidarity to resolve a dispute because they were already out in front in what looked like becoming a competition between individual countries. For the EU as a whole, it clearly makes sense to co-ordinate rollout to vulnerable countries in parallel (rather than ending up, say, with the Netherlands mostly vaccinated and Belgium much less so). They lost out because the delay in re-starting allowed the UK to steal a march (when did we secure our outline deal with AZN?) and because trying to balance the interests of countries like Italy and France that were suffering badly wit those like Portugal and the Czech Republic, that escaped the worst of the first wave and imagined the virus might be gone, was always going to be cumbersome and difficult.
If Belgium were falling behind then the correct answer would be for Belgian politicians to get their arse in gear and sort out their own vaccine supply, not drag everyone down to the lowest common denominator.
The great European myth that "solidarity" means bigger means better supply has been exposed as untrue. The idea being claimed was that working alone small countries wouldn't have been able to get vaccine supplies but that is categorically untrue - if you look at the list of countries that are doing better than the European Union is now then besides the US and the UK it is primarily a "who's who" of wealthy small countries. There was no reason that Belgium and other wealthy European small countries couldn't have initiated their own contracts on their own.
Fine, but it is pretty much a zero-sum game, as I said, and for Europe as a whole the final death rate will be lower if vulnerable (older) people are prioritised across the continent, rather than having some countries working through younger people while older people in the country next door are left waiting.
Precisely the same reason we are attempting to keep progress of our own programme running broadly in parallel across the nations and regions of the UK, rather than allowing those that prove to be better managed and organised to run too far ahead.
It is not a zero-sum game whatsoever. There are billions of doses being produced.
Output scales with investment. More investment, sooner equals more output. Its as simple as that.
Introducing a three month delay on the investment is what set behind production. It isn't complicated. Invest three months sooner, manufacturing begins and becomes optimised three months sooner, more output available.
Brexit having been done, in my naivety I had thought that discussion of the shortcomings of the EU would diminish. How wrong I was. Brexiteers in particular, having left the EU, have become even more obsessed with it, as evidenced by the sheer volume of commentary on the EU on this site this year.
Anybody who thought that leaving the EU would stop those opposed to it "banging on" about it was as naive as I was.
We are destined to have the EU as part of our political debate for ever, and much more so than had we remained members. As is the case in both Norway and Switzerland.
What is amusing is seeing Brexiters trying to project their prior prejudices about the EU onto the story and re-writing the history to match
Nope, we are discussing our own regulatory reforms and trading strategy as an independent nation now - not the latest EU initiative or regulation that we will be irrevocably bound by from the Commission. Nor are we discussing in tedium every forthcoming European Council and how the UK will be obliged to go along with the next federalist power grab, or try and be a lone wolf. Neither are we getting frustrated about the latest ruling from the ECJ or the challenges of unrestricted and unqualified free movement.
We are talking about the EU's influence on us less, not more. We *are* discussing how to optimise our bilateral relationship with the EU, together with how the EU itself is performing, but that's quite a separate matter - and far more detached.
Well let's take one reasonably substantial UK sector - fishing financial services.
Absolutely everything that is being considered - good, bad or ugly - is being done in the context of the EU next door.
So your case has dissolved into resting upon a hypothetical. It is almost certain that had the EU-wide process started a few months earlier, and had the necessary authority and budget to act on behalf of all members, they would have secured a better outcome than the one they have. How much better, who can say?
The alternative scenario, of continuing with each country securing its own deals, would surely have delivered a better result for Germany, Italy and France, and almost certainly a worse one for many of the other members.
Why would it have delivered a worse result for many of the other members?
You do realise Serbia is in a better position than every EU country in the International Vaccine Table.
Because it is self evident that with a fixed (or as good as) total of vaccine available, it was a zero sum game. Had Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands progressed and landed their deal with AZN, there would have been less AZN vaccine available now for other EU members (and, possibly, the UK).
Was it really a zero sum game ? More money spent sooner on more vaccine efforts would likely have meant more production capacity available sooner. It not as though we haven't seen recent deals to put more capacity on stream.
End of April for over 50s requires an average of 368,338 jabs per day. With 10.92 million second jabs needed in the mix
It has to be much more than 10.92 million isn't it? It is surely over 14 million?
Not by the end of April though
Why not? He announced today they'd be done by end of April didn't he?
Only 2nd doses required by end of April are those that had first jabs by end of Jan. surely.
As I said on the day Mrs BJO had her jab she was told her 2nd one "could be up to 20 weeks" after first one.
I have had mine in February and been given a date of 4.5.21 for 2nd one
Whoever told you that was being overly pessimistic.
Its been officially confirmed a few times since then they're sticking with a 12 week timescale and unless I misheard Boris committed tonight that all of the 1-4 group second doses will be completed by 30 April. So even if someone got their first jab on 13 February, the second jab is now due by 30 April.
I won't be: I'm booked in for the 1st of May...
Interesting. Which group are you in if you don't mind me asking?
Group 4. I was offered a range of dates and picked a Saturday so I would not need time off work, so I would probably count as having been offered one by the 30th of April.
A close relative - just over 50, no conditions - has been booked in for this week for a first jab....
The member states say they ceded vacinne negotiation to the Commission out of European "solidarity" over the pandemic, but it's really because they thought they'd get better and quicker results for their citizens. Bigger orders and profiles for the vacinne producing states and quicker deliveries and rollouts for those who were not.
What the EU is afraid of is that they might, now, make a different calculation next time rather than always assuming More Europe delivers better outcomes.
No, that's not how it came about. It was unhappiness from the smaller countries, led by Belgium, at the outline heads of a deal that Germany (in consortium with France, Italy and Netherlands) had already secured with Astrazeneca back in June 2020 for 300 million doses for the four countries that led, at Germany's suggestion, to the procurement process being passed over to the EU. Big mistake by Germany, but it was done for solidarity, not cost. The consequence was that the EU had to start from scratch last summer, and co-ordinate the 27 participants each of which held the decision-making power and, critically, the budget.
They would have been better off had the EU had the authority and budget to have launched and managed the process from the outset.
Yes, quicker deliveries and rollouts for those who were non vacinne producing states. And AZ is not the whole story either - you've left out the Pfizer vaccine and the French one too.
"Solidarity" is emotional hogwash. The EU works through pure power politics.
If the EU had the budget and authority to start with that doesn't mean it'd have made better decisions - in all likelihood it simply would have used its heft to protract negotiations over volume and price, rather than speed.
So your case has dissolved into resting upon a hypothetical. It is almost certain that had the EU-wide process started a few months earlier, and had the necessary authority and budget to act on behalf of all members, they would have secured a better outcome than the one they have. How much better, who can say?
The alternative scenario, of continuing with each country securing its own deals, would surely have delivered a better result for Germany, Italy and France, and almost certainly a worse one for many of the other members.
Since the total amount of vaccine available right now would be the same, either of these alternatives may have put the UK supply back into the pack. Indeed the German consortium might have beaten us to the line with AZN.
I love the way you say my case rests on a hypothetical and then immediately counter with a hypothetical of your own and say with absolute certainty it would have delivered a far better outcome.
Motes and Beams.
Yes and no. Whether having started earlier, had more time, the required authority, and a proper budget, would have made things easier is a much stronger case than arguing that none of these would have brought any advantage whatsoever.
Brexit having been done, in my naivety I had thought that discussion of the shortcomings of the EU would diminish. How wrong I was. Brexiteers in particular, having left the EU, have become even more obsessed with it, as evidenced by the sheer volume of commentary on the EU on this site this year.
Anybody who thought that leaving the EU would stop those opposed to it "banging on" about it was as naive as I was.
Maybe I'm wrong here but is it always Brexiteers who incessantly post Brexit tweets and news stories on here on a daily basis? Because I can think of three posters who immediately spring to mind, and none of them are Leave supporters.
FWIW I think the site is far calmer and more collegiate now than it has been in several years, notwithstanding that.
You're right that there are a handful of 'remainers' who keep posting links on the perils of leaving. But they tend to not be supported by much, if any, commentary. The vast majority of actual commentary is from those not favourably inclined towards the EU, I think. Not that those who are pro-EU have been cowed into silence, of course!
I don't think the pro-EU side have been cowed into silence!
There are a whole slew of regular posters on here who underline or echo such sentiments of peril.
Maybe this is simply because we notice those who disagree with us more, whilst "banking" those who do not?
Gosh, even when I agree with you, you somehow manage to make out that I'm disagreeing! You've read too much into my comment, methinks.
...but the message for now is that there’s possibly a little too much Europe - certainly over the vaccine project - and it needs to be dialled back a bit. How that’s compatible with a single currency, which by its very nature demands much more central financial control, is a great conundrum.
How the Eurozone crisis has played out so far also demonstrates the amount of suffering at least some of the member states are ready to go to in an effort to keep the show on the road, and the capacity of the EU as a whole to make do and muddle through.
This is such a Metroplitan (elitist) armchair analysis. There are actual, ordinary, normal, people living inside this "Eurozone" you know. And they're very disgruntled right now. It's life and death out there. Their elitist politicians are failing them.
Things fall apart The centre cannot hold
This is hysterical.
Funny that the ‘professional’ writers on here are so bereft of original thought that they’re reduced to repeatedly trotting out Yeats’ somewhat over exposed lines.
When you take the "Travel" out of a Travel Writer.....
So your case has dissolved into resting upon a hypothetical. It is almost certain that had the EU-wide process started a few months earlier, and had the necessary authority and budget to act on behalf of all members, they would have secured a better outcome than the one they have. How much better, who can say?
The alternative scenario, of continuing with each country securing its own deals, would surely have delivered a better result for Germany, Italy and France, and almost certainly a worse one for many of the other members.
Why would it have delivered a worse result for many of the other members?
You do realise Serbia is in a better position than every EU country in the International Vaccine Table.
Because it is self evident that with a fixed (or as good as) total of vaccine available, it was a zero sum game. Had Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands progressed and landed their deal with AZN, there would have been less AZN vaccine available now for other EU members (and, possibly, the UK).
It isn't a zero-sum game.
Serbia is using Sputnik and is about to manufacture it. That is why it is doing well & will shortly be doing even better.
The member states say they ceded vacinne negotiation to the Commission out of European "solidarity" over the pandemic, but it's really because they thought they'd get better and quicker results for their citizens. Bigger orders and profiles for the vacinne producing states and quicker deliveries and rollouts for those who were not.
What the EU is afraid of is that they might, now, make a different calculation next time rather than always assuming More Europe delivers better outcomes.
It would be fascinating to see some polling across the EU on the question:
"If your country were not yet in the EU, would you vote to join it? Yes/No."
I suspect that might show how much quicksand underpins the EU.
...but the message for now is that there’s possibly a little too much Europe - certainly over the vaccine project - and it needs to be dialled back a bit. How that’s compatible with a single currency, which by its very nature demands much more central financial control, is a great conundrum.
How the Eurozone crisis has played out so far also demonstrates the amount of suffering at least some of the member states are ready to go to in an effort to keep the show on the road, and the capacity of the EU as a whole to make do and muddle through.
This is such a Metroplitan (elitist) armchair analysis. There are actual, ordinary, normal, people living inside this "Eurozone" you know. And they're very disgruntled right now. It's life and death out there. Their elitist politicians are failing them.
Things fall apart The centre cannot hold
This is hysterical.
Funny that the ‘professional’ writers on here are so bereft of original thought that they’re reduced to repeatedly trotting out Yeats’ somewhat over exposed lines.
Writers thrive on producing imaginary hyperbole and revel in anticipating anything that is dramatic, good or bad. Especially bad, as those are generally the better stories. Who'd have thought?
So your case has dissolved into resting upon a hypothetical. It is almost certain that had the EU-wide process started a few months earlier, and had the necessary authority and budget to act on behalf of all members, they would have secured a better outcome than the one they have. How much better, who can say?
The alternative scenario, of continuing with each country securing its own deals, would surely have delivered a better result for Germany, Italy and France, and almost certainly a worse one for many of the other members.
Why would it have delivered a worse result for many of the other members?
You do realise Serbia is in a better position than every EU country in the International Vaccine Table.
Because it is self evident that with a fixed (or as good as) total of vaccine available, it was a zero sum game. Had Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands progressed and landed their deal with AZN, there would have been less AZN vaccine available now for other EU members (and, possibly, the UK).
Was it really a zero sum game ? More money spent sooner on more vaccine efforts would likely have meant more production capacity available sooner. It not as though we haven't seen recent deals to put more capacity on stream.
That's the thing - it's only a zero sum game because of the rules the EU insisted upon. This was a time when any and all counties should have been told normal competition rules aren't valid for this sector...
And if that had been the case the EU wouldn't be in the mess it currently is.
Interesting piece, Philip, which has garnered a set of predictable responses.
It’s a fair question to ask why national governments, who are as you point out directly responsible to their electorates for healthcare, did not invoke the principle of subsidiarity. It doesn’t excuse the Commission’s failure, but if I were (for example) German or Dutch, I would be more angry with my own government over their derelictions.
And was it really a feint (and if so, to what end), or did you intend the more conventional faint praise ?
A typo, I meant faint praise.
I thought it was a clever pun!
Also an enjoyable and balanced header.
One of the most persuasive arguments for Brexit I read - posted by RCS1000, and which I cannot now find was written by a (Physics?) Professor who argued that the EU's "fatal" flaw is its inability to quickly correct errors - unlike the UK, which with the Common Law, independent judiciary (in most of it, anyway) and parliamentary system keeps making mistakes, but keeps correcting them - see COVID, one spectacular success among a procession of blunders (on a side note, WTF is this Scottish "if you change planes in Dublin quarantine doesn't apply?).
Take the EU vaccines roll out. The current orthodoxy is that "without the EU, big countries would have bought vaccines themselves (Germany, the biggest, did) and the smallest wouldn't have been able to (Malta, the smallest, has). So until the EU can face up to its mistakes frankly it will continue to struggle. And in the meantime fuelling anti-vaxers with the AZ game playing is a disgrace.
Mr. Sandpit, aye, I've noticed the upward trend for a while.
Not least because rises always seem to happen just before I get paid...
I think it’s likely to rise a little more in the coming months too, as the UK economy opens up faster than elsewhere. Might hedge the next six months’ mortgage payments at the current rate, now I’m thinking about it.
Yawn. There isn't going to be a "federal" Europe Philip. This is just a hobby horse of the extreme ends of the European debate, and those Brexiteers who really don't have the first clue about how Europe, or the EU works. When the EU expanded to the East this "dear" or nightmare was killed off as that trade off. It is of course a favourite canard of the British Brexiteer right as another foreigner-phobe stick to try and convince us that Brexit was not a charter for thickos.
By the way, with respect to your obsession with vaccines (because it is the only apparent good news for Brexit we will hear about it ad nauseam no doubt). If UK was still part of EU we would have probably gone our own way anyway. The MHRA followed the same procedures that it did when leading the way in Europe as a regulator. Our pointless exit from EU would probably have made no difference whatsoever.
I hope for the sake of Europe you're wrong because Europe would be better not worse as a proper federation.
As was the point of my argument it is the halfway house that is weakest. Europe currently has quite strong powers but little in the way of strong scrutiny of those powers. A proper federal system would lead to centralisation true, but it will lead to much better scrutiny, control and accountability for how those powers are used.
If Europe wants powers exercised 'in solidarity' then "more Europe" and more federalisation is a positive step forward in its evolution, not something to criticise - and if you're against that then the repatriation of those powers back to the elected nation states should be the alternative.
Brexit having been done, in my naivety I had thought that discussion of the shortcomings of the EU would diminish. How wrong I was. Brexiteers in particular, having left the EU, have become even more obsessed with it, as evidenced by the sheer volume of commentary on the EU on this site this year.
Anybody who thought that leaving the EU would stop those opposed to it "banging on" about it was as naive as I was.
We are destined to have the EU as part of our political debate for ever, and much more so than had we remained members.
I agree with the first part of that, but not the second. The EU will always be with us (as long as it exists anyway) but I think its salience will decline as its influence over us is reduced. Instead of spending a generation banging on about Europe, the Conservatives can now focus on the country's many other problems, most of which don't have a significant European dimension.
Of course, that may be a poisoned chalice.
We'll have to see. But look at the way that when Switzerland tried to do something on its own with its immigration policies, they quickly became embroiled in a wider trade dispute with the EU. Because of its size the EU is able to bully its smaller neighbours (which is wrong, but the US does the same in its sphere). Ironically the circumstance in which you may be right is the one where we maintain close alignment across the board.
We are not Switzerland.
Only because Brexiters thought Australia or Canada sounded better. Despite being further from the truth.
Brexit having been done, in my naivety I had thought that discussion of the shortcomings of the EU would diminish. How wrong I was. Brexiteers in particular, having left the EU, have become even more obsessed with it, as evidenced by the sheer volume of commentary on the EU on this site this year.
Anybody who thought that leaving the EU would stop those opposed to it "banging on" about it was as naive as I was.
We are destined to have the EU as part of our political debate for ever, and much more so than had we remained members.
I agree with the first part of that, but not the second. The EU will always be with us (as long as it exists anyway) but I think its salience will decline as its influence over us is reduced. Instead of spending a generation banging on about Europe, the Conservatives can now focus on the country's many other problems, most of which don't have a significant European dimension.
Of course, that may be a poisoned chalice.
We'll have to see. But look at the way that when Switzerland tried to do something on its own with its immigration policies, they quickly became embroiled in a wider trade dispute with the EU. Because of its size the EU is able to bully its smaller neighbours (which is wrong, but the US does the same in its sphere). Ironically the circumstance in which you may be right is the one where we maintain close alignment across the board.
So your case has dissolved into resting upon a hypothetical. It is almost certain that had the EU-wide process started a few months earlier, and had the necessary authority and budget to act on behalf of all members, they would have secured a better outcome than the one they have. How much better, who can say?
The alternative scenario, of continuing with each country securing its own deals, would surely have delivered a better result for Germany, Italy and France, and almost certainly a worse one for many of the other members.
Why would it have delivered a worse result for many of the other members?
You do realise Serbia is in a better position than every EU country in the International Vaccine Table.
Because it is self evident that with a fixed (or as good as) total of vaccine available, it was a zero sum game. Had Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands progressed and landed their deal with AZN, there would have been less AZN vaccine available now for other EU members (and, possibly, the UK).
Was it really a zero sum game ? More money spent sooner on more vaccine efforts would likely have meant more production capacity available sooner. It not as though we haven't seen recent deals to put more capacity on stream.
Though @rcs1000 made an interesting point yesterday- the economics of vaccination mean that businesses will ramp up their production massively anyway, even without government intervention, because a vaccine you can sell now is worth way more than one you sell in 2023. And by 2024, you might not be able to give it away.
The member states say they ceded vacinne negotiation to the Commission out of European "solidarity" over the pandemic, but it's really because they thought they'd get better and quicker results for their citizens. Bigger orders and profiles for the vacinne producing states and quicker deliveries and rollouts for those who were not.
What the EU is afraid of is that they might, now, make a different calculation next time rather than always assuming More Europe delivers better outcomes.
No, that's not how it came about. It was unhappiness from the smaller countries, led by Belgium, at the outline heads of a deal that Germany (in consortium with France, Italy and Netherlands) secured with Astrazeneca back in June 2020 for 300 million doses for the four countries that led, at Germany's suggestion, to the procurement process being passed over to the EU. Big mistake by Germany, but it was done for solidarity, not cost. The consequence was that the EU had to start from scratch last summer, and co-ordinate the 27 participants each of which held the decision-making power and, critically, the budget.
They would have been better off had the EU had the authority and budget to have launched and managed the process from the outset.
The mood music from Brussels was that by leveraging the buying power of the whole EU, they were getting better prices. So it may have been seen as a side benefit of solidarity?
Oh indeed, but the EU decided that price and liability were their big issues, whereas the UK decided that speed of approval and delivery, and manufacturing investment were more important.
So the UK has had to eat price and liability, and the EU has had to eat speed and facilities.
Price of course being almost immaterial next to the opportunity cost of not getting your economy fully up and running as quickly as possible.
Whether we manage that is another hypothetical. We are of course delighted with the falling UK case and death numbers, but it's worth noting that numbers are now falling in most European countries, and indeed across the world - including where vaccination has barely started. And southern Europe gets the warmer weather, when social life moves outside, first. Given that the Mediterranean can run much social and economic activity outside during the summer, it is too early to say that we will have a significant economic advantage.
With such naked spin like that you should try applying for a job with the European Commission press division.
It at least matches their other half-arsed attempts.
Brexit having been done, in my naivety I had thought that discussion of the shortcomings of the EU would diminish. How wrong I was. Brexiteers in particular, having left the EU, have become even more obsessed with it, as evidenced by the sheer volume of commentary on the EU on this site this year.
Anybody who thought that leaving the EU would stop those opposed to it "banging on" about it was as naive as I was.
Who would have thought that those who moan perpetually about Remoaners would also be addicted to moaning about the EU? It’s almost as if the phobic resentment is more precious to them than the guff about democracy and sovereignty.
Nice thread header - many thanks to PT. Interesting to see something on EU politics.
The EU vaccination rollout certainly is a failure when set against the British one. But if compared to allowing European countries to go it alone?
I'd imagine some nations would have done better, but most (particularly the smaller ones) would have done worse. The philosophy of collective negotiating doesn't seem a mistake to me.
To anyone who’s still desperate to get on a plane at the moment, have a read through a pilots’ forum - with them all discussing how rusty they are, having barely flown in the past year.
A pilot’s forum on that subject sounds like a crashing bore.
Ah, my coat...
Nah they'll be fine they'll just wing it....
I rejet the idea of pilots who have spent the last year propping up their kitchen tables ‘winging it’ when it comes to flying very large, very heavy metal objects around very fast. Too many things can go wrong.
ooops - serial nosedive and tailspin with the puns today!
Brexit having been done, in my naivety I had thought that discussion of the shortcomings of the EU would diminish. How wrong I was. Brexiteers in particular, having left the EU, have become even more obsessed with it, as evidenced by the sheer volume of commentary on the EU on this site this year.
Anybody who thought that leaving the EU would stop those opposed to it "banging on" about it was as naive as I was.
We are destined to have the EU as part of our political debate for ever, and much more so than had we remained members.
I agree with the first part of that, but not the second. The EU will always be with us (as long as it exists anyway) but I think its salience will decline as its influence over us is reduced. Instead of spending a generation banging on about Europe, the Conservatives can now focus on the country's many other problems, most of which don't have a significant European dimension.
Of course, that may be a poisoned chalice.
We'll have to see. But look at the way that when Switzerland tried to do something on its own with its immigration policies, they quickly became embroiled in a wider trade dispute with the EU. Because of its size the EU is able to bully its smaller neighbours (which is wrong, but the US does the same in its sphere). Ironically the circumstance in which you may be right is the one where we maintain close alignment across the board.
But we are much bigger than Switzerland, and the EU accounts for a much smaller (and shrinking) part of our trade than it does theirs.
Against that, of course, they never made the mistake of joining in the first place, so from that point of view they start from a much better position than we do.
Switzerland exports approximately the same % to the EU as the U.K. does. I think it imports more, though.
Does anyone have any mood lifting lockdown tips? Work a bit of a nightmare, done all the walks I can do, I’ve completed eBay,Amazon, Netflix, etc, there is nothing left to buy, read or watch. I’ve cooked interesting food. Zoom drinks leave me cold. Done DIY nonsense. Want to drive to Barnard Castle Scotland, but can’t. Even bored of arguing on the Internet.
Normally quite good at bootstrapping myself, but currently at a total loss.
Yawn. There isn't going to be a "federal" Europe Philip. This is just a hobby horse of the extreme ends of the European debate, and those Brexiteers who really don't have the first clue about how Europe, or the EU works. When the EU expanded to the East this "dear" or nightmare was killed off as that trade off. It is of course a favourite canard of the British Brexiteer right as another foreigner-phobe stick to try and convince us that Brexit was not a charter for thickos.
By the way, with respect to your obsession with vaccines (because it is the only apparent good news for Brexit we will hear about it ad nauseam no doubt). If UK was still part of EU we would have probably gone our own way anyway. The MHRA followed the same procedures that it did when leading the way in Europe as a regulator. Our pointless exit from EU would probably have made no difference whatsoever.
I hope for the sake of Europe you're wrong because Europe would be better not worse as a proper federation.
As was the point of my argument it is the halfway house that is weakest. Europe currently has quite strong powers but little in the way of strong scrutiny of those powers. A proper federal system would lead to centralisation true, but it will lead to much better scrutiny, control and accountability for how those powers are used.
If Europe wants powers exercised 'in solidarity' then "more Europe" and more federalisation is a positive step forward in its evolution, not something to criticise - and if you're against that then the repatriation of those powers back to the elected nation states should be the alternative.
Even better, accompany centralisation of those areas where this is an advantage with decentralisation to regions and communities of those matters best managed, and held accountable, locally.
Brexiters rail against the supposed 'centralisation' of the EU (despite this episode illustrating the opposite, as it appears you at least have astutely recognised) yet we live in one of the most centralised states in the world (which, to anticipate the obvious challenge has, in the case of the NHS, has proved advantageous - but more generally its a handicap).
Nice thread header - many thanks to PT. Interesting to see something on EU politics.
The EU vaccination rollout certainly is a failure when set against the British one. But if compared to allowing European countries to go it alone?
I'd imagine some nations would have done better, but most (particularly the smaller ones) would have done worse. The philosophy of collective negotiating doesn't seem a mistake to me.
The one point that Quatremer made which sort of resonated is that the first come first served approach to PPE in the EU was seen as a failure.
So your case has dissolved into resting upon a hypothetical. It is almost certain that had the EU-wide process started a few months earlier, and had the necessary authority and budget to act on behalf of all members, they would have secured a better outcome than the one they have. How much better, who can say?
The alternative scenario, of continuing with each country securing its own deals, would surely have delivered a better result for Germany, Italy and France, and almost certainly a worse one for many of the other members.
Why would it have delivered a worse result for many of the other members?
You do realise Serbia is in a better position than every EU country in the International Vaccine Table.
Because it is self evident that with a fixed (or as good as) total of vaccine available, it was a zero sum game. Had Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands progressed and landed their deal with AZN, there would have been less AZN vaccine available now for other EU members (and, possibly, the UK).
Was it really a zero sum game ? More money spent sooner on more vaccine efforts would likely have meant more production capacity available sooner. It not as though we haven't seen recent deals to put more capacity on stream.
Though @rcs1000 made an interesting point yesterday- the economics of vaccination mean that businesses will ramp up their production massively anyway, even without government intervention, because a vaccine you can sell now is worth way more than one you sell in 2023. And by 2024, you might not be able to give it away.
Invisible hand, innit.
The point of priming the pump with government spending was to bring that capacity forward. Bit like the classic famine situation - yes, eventually food will arrive as prices rise....
Pre-purchasing the vaccines and investing in production facilities turned a "bet" on the success of a vaccine, from the point of view of a company, into a zero risk operation.
So your case has dissolved into resting upon a hypothetical. It is almost certain that had the EU-wide process started a few months earlier, and had the necessary authority and budget to act on behalf of all members, they would have secured a better outcome than the one they have. How much better, who can say?
The alternative scenario, of continuing with each country securing its own deals, would surely have delivered a better result for Germany, Italy and France, and almost certainly a worse one for many of the other members.
Why would it have delivered a worse result for many of the other members?
You do realise Serbia is in a better position than every EU country in the International Vaccine Table.
Because it is self evident that with a fixed (or as good as) total of vaccine available, it was a zero sum game. Had Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands progressed and landed their deal with AZN, there would have been less AZN vaccine available now for other EU members (and, possibly, the UK).
Was it really a zero sum game ? More money spent sooner on more vaccine efforts would likely have meant more production capacity available sooner. It not as though we haven't seen recent deals to put more capacity on stream.
Though @rcs1000 made an interesting point yesterday- the economics of vaccination mean that businesses will ramp up their production massively anyway, even without government intervention, because a vaccine you can sell now is worth way more than one you sell in 2023. And by 2024, you might not be able to give it away.
Invisible hand, innit.
Now that there's approved vaccines yes.
The invisible hand didn't work with ramping up speculative efforts. Hence the UK, USA, India, Israel and others 'pump primed' the investment in speculative vaccines before they were authorised while they were still in Stage 3 trials allowing them to be ready sooner.
The reason the UK's manufacturing of AZ is outputting so much more than the EU's is that the manufacturing process began 3 months sooner so it is working better. In 3 months time the EU's should be doing better too.
Does anyone have any mood lifting lockdown tips? Work a bit of a nightmare, done all the walks I can do, I’ve completed eBay,Amazon, Netflix, etc, there is nothing left to buy, read or watch. I’ve cooked interesting food. Zoom drinks leave me cold. Done DIY nonsense. Want to drive to Barnard Castle Scotland, but can’t. Even bored of arguing on the Internet.
Normally quite good at bootstrapping myself, but currently at a total loss.
Sean recommends intensive indoor exercise. Other possibilities are study - use the incredible wealth of learning resources on the internet to do a course, learn a skill, a language, music, art, craft, whatever - or return to one of your childhood hobbies.
Brexit having been done, in my naivety I had thought that discussion of the shortcomings of the EU would diminish. How wrong I was. Brexiteers in particular, having left the EU, have become even more obsessed with it, as evidenced by the sheer volume of commentary on the EU on this site this year.
Anybody who thought that leaving the EU would stop those opposed to it "banging on" about it was as naive as I was.
We are destined to have the EU as part of our political debate for ever, and much more so than had we remained members.
I agree with the first part of that, but not the second. The EU will always be with us (as long as it exists anyway) but I think its salience will decline as its influence over us is reduced. Instead of spending a generation banging on about Europe, the Conservatives can now focus on the country's many other problems, most of which don't have a significant European dimension.
Of course, that may be a poisoned chalice.
We'll have to see. But look at the way that when Switzerland tried to do something on its own with its immigration policies, they quickly became embroiled in a wider trade dispute with the EU. Because of its size the EU is able to bully its smaller neighbours (which is wrong, but the US does the same in its sphere). Ironically the circumstance in which you may be right is the one where we maintain close alignment across the board.
We are not Switzerland.
Profound commentary.
Well, it's true, isn't it?
And what more needs to be said?
Switzerland tried to end free movement, and was put back in its box because of its size, geographical position and lack of economic bargaining power. We tried and, err, did - it's termination is already a reality.
The truth is (already proven) that the UK is too big, ugly and smelly to be pushed around and dictated to like Greece or Switzerland. We have compromises and choices to make, sure, but they're ones of practical debate and discussion.
So it was a pointless and transparently dumb post, and got all the response it needed.
Yawn. There isn't going to be a "federal" Europe Philip. This is just a hobby horse of the extreme ends of the European debate, and those Brexiteers who really don't have the first clue about how Europe, or the EU works. When the EU expanded to the East this "dear" or nightmare was killed off as that trade off. It is of course a favourite canard of the British Brexiteer right as another foreigner-phobe stick to try and convince us that Brexit was not a charter for thickos.
By the way, with respect to your obsession with vaccines (because it is the only apparent good news for Brexit we will hear about it ad nauseam no doubt). If UK was still part of EU we would have probably gone our own way anyway. The MHRA followed the same procedures that it did when leading the way in Europe as a regulator. Our pointless exit from EU would probably have made no difference whatsoever.
I hope for the sake of Europe you're wrong because Europe would be better not worse as a proper federation.
As was the point of my argument it is the halfway house that is weakest. Europe currently has quite strong powers but little in the way of strong scrutiny of those powers. A proper federal system would lead to centralisation true, but it will lead to much better scrutiny, control and accountability for how those powers are used.
If Europe wants powers exercised 'in solidarity' then "more Europe" and more federalisation is a positive step forward in its evolution, not something to criticise - and if you're against that then the repatriation of those powers back to the elected nation states should be the alternative.
Even better, accompany centralisation of those areas where this is an advantage with decentralisation to regions and communities of those matters best managed, and held accountable, locally.
Brexiters rail against the supposed 'centralisation' of the EU (despite this episode illustrating the opposite, as it appears you at least have astutely recognised) yet we live in one of the most centralised states in the world (which, to anticipate the obvious challenge has, in the case of the NHS, has proved advantageous - but more generally its a handicap).
But it’s *British* centralisation and lack of accountability!
So your case has dissolved into resting upon a hypothetical. It is almost certain that had the EU-wide process started a few months earlier, and had the necessary authority and budget to act on behalf of all members, they would have secured a better outcome than the one they have. How much better, who can say?
The alternative scenario, of continuing with each country securing its own deals, would surely have delivered a better result for Germany, Italy and France, and almost certainly a worse one for many of the other members.
Why would it have delivered a worse result for many of the other members?
You do realise Serbia is in a better position than every EU country in the International Vaccine Table.
Because it is self evident that with a fixed (or as good as) total of vaccine available, it was a zero sum game. Had Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands progressed and landed their deal with AZN, there would have been less AZN vaccine available now for other EU members (and, possibly, the UK).
Was it really a zero sum game ? More money spent sooner on more vaccine efforts would likely have meant more production capacity available sooner. It not as though we haven't seen recent deals to put more capacity on stream.
Though @rcs1000 made an interesting point yesterday- the economics of vaccination mean that businesses will ramp up their production massively anyway, even without government intervention, because a vaccine you can sell now is worth way more than one you sell in 2023. And by 2024, you might not be able to give it away.
Invisible hand, innit.
Now that there's approved vaccines yes.
The invisible hand didn't work with ramping up speculative efforts. Hence the UK, USA, India, Israel and others 'pump primed' the investment in speculative vaccines before they were authorised while they were still in Stage 3 trials allowing them to be ready sooner.
The reason the UK's manufacturing of AZ is outputting so much more than the EU's is that the manufacturing process began 3 months sooner so it is working better. In 3 months time the EU's should be doing better too.
The absolute advantage that being earlier brings seems huge now - because Europeans are watching us being vaccinated. But it's a temporary advantage, and there have been other times during the pandemic when the UK, or the US, have made worse policy decisions and been suffering worse outcomes as a consequence. The one good point made by that Brussels commentator at the weekend was that what will matter in the long run is how things look taking the long, overall perspective.
Does anyone have any mood lifting lockdown tips? Work a bit of a nightmare, done all the walks I can do, I’ve completed eBay,Amazon, Netflix, etc, there is nothing left to buy, read or watch. I’ve cooked interesting food. Zoom drinks leave me cold. Done DIY nonsense. Want to drive to Barnard Castle Scotland, but can’t. Even bored of arguing on the Internet.
Normally quite good at bootstrapping myself, but currently at a total loss.
My wife has started buying me Lego kits.
I have a 1969-piece Saturn V, an international space station and a Porsche racing car so far - each takes about 10-15 hours and costs around £100. Good for something relaxing to do indoors
Leaving a existing arrangement is much more difficult than simply declining to enter into one. It's a divorce (or serious relationship breakup) versus turning down a date offer.
Nice thread header - many thanks to PT. Interesting to see something on EU politics.
The EU vaccination rollout certainly is a failure when set against the British one. But if compared to allowing European countries to go it alone?
I'd imagine some nations would have done better, but most (particularly the smaller ones) would have done worse. The philosophy of collective negotiating doesn't seem a mistake to me.
The one point that Quatremer made which sort of resonated is that the first come first served approach to PPE in the EU was seen as a failure.
It was the wrong lesson to learn.
The difference is that the PPE scramble was zero-sum, it was scrambling for pre-existing PPE stocks that were immediately available.
The vaccine manufacturing was being primed nine months ahead of rollout. Investing sooner and with more cash meant more output available sooner which was not the case with the PPE.
Indeed investing in PPE manufacturing meant that nine months after the initial PPE scramble (sooner even) there was no shortage in PPE. The manufacturing investment had resolved the shortages. That is what should have been done with vaccines.
Brexit having been done, in my naivety I had thought that discussion of the shortcomings of the EU would diminish. How wrong I was. Brexiteers in particular, having left the EU, have become even more obsessed with it, as evidenced by the sheer volume of commentary on the EU on this site this year.
Anybody who thought that leaving the EU would stop those opposed to it "banging on" about it was as naive as I was.
We are destined to have the EU as part of our political debate for ever, and much more so than had we remained members.
I agree with the first part of that, but not the second. The EU will always be with us (as long as it exists anyway) but I think its salience will decline as its influence over us is reduced. Instead of spending a generation banging on about Europe, the Conservatives can now focus on the country's many other problems, most of which don't have a significant European dimension.
Of course, that may be a poisoned chalice.
We'll have to see. But look at the way that when Switzerland tried to do something on its own with its immigration policies, they quickly became embroiled in a wider trade dispute with the EU. Because of its size the EU is able to bully its smaller neighbours (which is wrong, but the US does the same in its sphere). Ironically the circumstance in which you may be right is the one where we maintain close alignment across the board.
We are not Switzerland.
Profound commentary.
Well, it's true, isn't it?
And what more needs to be said?
Switzerland tried to end free movement, and was put back in its box because of its size, geographical position and lack of economic bargaining power. We tried and, err, did - it's termination is already a reality.
The truth is (already proven) that the UK is too big, ugly and smelly to be pushed around and dictated to like Greece or Switzerland. We have compromises and choices to make, sure, but they're ones of practical debate and discussion.
So it was a pointless and transparently dumb post, and got all the response it needed.
Does anyone have any mood lifting lockdown tips? Work a bit of a nightmare, done all the walks I can do, I’ve completed eBay,Amazon, Netflix, etc, there is nothing left to buy, read or watch. I’ve cooked interesting food. Zoom drinks leave me cold. Done DIY nonsense. Want to drive to Barnard Castle Scotland, but can’t. Even bored of arguing on the Internet.
Normally quite good at bootstrapping myself, but currently at a total loss.
I don't know if this helps but I've kept myself busy with projects in the house and garden, and Hobbycraft - I like railway modelling, for example, but there's also furniture building or woodcraft in the garden - or playing online games with friends.
Yes, exceptionally nerdy but this is pb.com and none of us were in the cool gang at school.
Brexit having been done, in my naivety I had thought that discussion of the shortcomings of the EU would diminish. How wrong I was. Brexiteers in particular, having left the EU, have become even more obsessed with it, as evidenced by the sheer volume of commentary on the EU on this site this year.
Anybody who thought that leaving the EU would stop those opposed to it "banging on" about it was as naive as I was.
We are destined to have the EU as part of our political debate for ever, and much more so than had we remained members.
I agree with the first part of that, but not the second. The EU will always be with us (as long as it exists anyway) but I think its salience will decline as its influence over us is reduced. Instead of spending a generation banging on about Europe, the Conservatives can now focus on the country's many other problems, most of which don't have a significant European dimension.
Of course, that may be a poisoned chalice.
We'll have to see. But look at the way that when Switzerland tried to do something on its own with its immigration policies, they quickly became embroiled in a wider trade dispute with the EU. Because of its size the EU is able to bully its smaller neighbours (which is wrong, but the US does the same in its sphere). Ironically the circumstance in which you may be right is the one where we maintain close alignment across the board.
We are not Switzerland.
Profound commentary.
Well, it's true, isn't it?
And what more needs to be said?
Switzerland tried to end free movement, and was put back in its box because of its size, geographical position and lack of economic bargaining power. We tried and, err, did - it's termination is already a reality.
The truth is (already proven) that the UK is too big, ugly and smelly to be pushed around and dictated to like Greece or Switzerland. We have compromises and choices to make, sure, but they're ones of practical debate and discussion.
So it was a pointless and transparently dumb post, and got all the response it needed.
Brexit having been done, in my naivety I had thought that discussion of the shortcomings of the EU would diminish. How wrong I was. Brexiteers in particular, having left the EU, have become even more obsessed with it, as evidenced by the sheer volume of commentary on the EU on this site this year.
Anybody who thought that leaving the EU would stop those opposed to it "banging on" about it was as naive as I was.
We are destined to have the EU as part of our political debate for ever, and much more so than had we remained members.
I agree with the first part of that, but not the second. The EU will always be with us (as long as it exists anyway) but I think its salience will decline as its influence over us is reduced. Instead of spending a generation banging on about Europe, the Conservatives can now focus on the country's many other problems, most of which don't have a significant European dimension.
Of course, that may be a poisoned chalice.
We'll have to see. But look at the way that when Switzerland tried to do something on its own with its immigration policies, they quickly became embroiled in a wider trade dispute with the EU. Because of its size the EU is able to bully its smaller neighbours (which is wrong, but the US does the same in its sphere). Ironically the circumstance in which you may be right is the one where we maintain close alignment across the board.
We are not Switzerland.
Profound commentary.
Well, it's true, isn't it?
And what more needs to be said?
Switzerland tried to end free movement, and was put back in its box because of its size, geographical position and lack of economic bargaining power. We tried and, err, did - it's termination is already a reality.
The truth is (already proven) that the UK is too big, ugly and smelly to be pushed around and dictated to like Greece or Switzerland. We have compromises and choices to make, sure, but they're ones of practical debate and discussion.
So it was a pointless and transparently dumb post, and got all the response it needed.
And the fact you didn't spend the 2 seconds it required me to find that fact says a lot about both this argument and your other posts as it's now highly possible that you won't have done basic fact checks there either.
Nice thread header - many thanks to PT. Interesting to see something on EU politics.
The EU vaccination rollout certainly is a failure when set against the British one. But if compared to allowing European countries to go it alone?
I'd imagine some nations would have done better, but most (particularly the smaller ones) would have done worse. The philosophy of collective negotiating doesn't seem a mistake to me.
The one point that Quatremer made which sort of resonated is that the first come first served approach to PPE in the EU was seen as a failure.
And ironically a key reason why we put vaccine procurement out to an arms length task force was because Vallance insisted that our own government's handling of PPE procurement had proved so shambolic
Yawn. There isn't going to be a "federal" Europe Philip. This is just a hobby horse of the extreme ends of the European debate, and those Brexiteers who really don't have the first clue about how Europe, or the EU works. When the EU expanded to the East this "dear" or nightmare was killed off as that trade off. It is of course a favourite canard of the British Brexiteer right as another foreigner-phobe stick to try and convince us that Brexit was not a charter for thickos.
By the way, with respect to your obsession with vaccines (because it is the only apparent good news for Brexit we will hear about it ad nauseam no doubt). If UK was still part of EU we would have probably gone our own way anyway. The MHRA followed the same procedures that it did when leading the way in Europe as a regulator. Our pointless exit from EU would probably have made no difference whatsoever.
I hope for the sake of Europe you're wrong because Europe would be better not worse as a proper federation.
As was the point of my argument it is the halfway house that is weakest. Europe currently has quite strong powers but little in the way of strong scrutiny of those powers. A proper federal system would lead to centralisation true, but it will lead to much better scrutiny, control and accountability for how those powers are used.
If Europe wants powers exercised 'in solidarity' then "more Europe" and more federalisation is a positive step forward in its evolution, not something to criticise - and if you're against that then the repatriation of those powers back to the elected nation states should be the alternative.
Even better, accompany centralisation of those areas where this is an advantage with decentralisation to regions and communities of those matters best managed, and held accountable, locally.
Brexiters rail against the supposed 'centralisation' of the EU (despite this episode illustrating the opposite, as it appears you at least have astutely recognised) yet we live in one of the most centralised states in the world (which, to anticipate the obvious challenge has, in the case of the NHS, has proved advantageous - but more generally its a handicap).
But it’s *British* centralisation and lack of accountability!
There is accountability in Britain, we have proper elections and politics. That's what is missing in Europe which is why there's no betting right now on next EU Commission President.
Centralisation isn't a bad thing in itself. Centralisation without accountability is. If you want centralised powers like for example Guy Verhofstadt does and you want those powers democratically accounted for, then that is an entirely logical and reasonable ambition.
The member states say they ceded vacinne negotiation to the Commission out of European "solidarity" over the pandemic, but it's really because they thought they'd get better and quicker results for their citizens. Bigger orders and profiles for the vacinne producing states and quicker deliveries and rollouts for those who were not.
What the EU is afraid of is that they might, now, make a different calculation next time rather than always assuming More Europe delivers better outcomes.
No, that's not how it came about. It was unhappiness from the smaller countries, led by Belgium, at the outline heads of a deal that Germany (in consortium with France, Italy and Netherlands) secured with Astrazeneca back in June 2020 for 300 million doses for the four countries that led, at Germany's suggestion, to the procurement process being passed over to the EU. Big mistake by Germany, but it was done for solidarity, not cost. The consequence was that the EU had to start from scratch last summer, and co-ordinate the 27 participants each of which held the decision-making power and, critically, the budget.
They would have been better off had the EU had the authority and budget to have launched and managed the process from the outset.
The mood music from Brussels was that by leveraging the buying power of the whole EU, they were getting better prices. So it may have been seen as a side benefit of solidarity?
Oh indeed, but the EU decided that price and liability were their big issues, whereas the UK decided that speed of approval and delivery, and manufacturing investment were more important.
So the UK has had to eat price and liability, and the EU has had to eat speed and facilities.
Price of course being almost immaterial next to the opportunity cost of not getting your economy fully up and running as quickly as possible.
Whether we manage that is another hypothetical. We are of course delighted with the falling UK case and death numbers, but it's worth noting that numbers are now falling in most European countries, and indeed across the world - including where vaccination has barely started. And southern Europe gets the warmer weather, when social life moves outside, first. Given that the Mediterranean can run much social and economic activity outside during the summer, it is too early to say that we will have a significant economic advantage.
With such naked spin like that you should try applying for a job with the European Commission press division.
It at least matches their other half-arsed attempts.
Spain opened up last summer after the first wave. It did not end well. It will not end well this time unless an awful lot more of us have been vaccinated - at this point that is highly debatable.
So your case has dissolved into resting upon a hypothetical. It is almost certain that had the EU-wide process started a few months earlier, and had the necessary authority and budget to act on behalf of all members, they would have secured a better outcome than the one they have. How much better, who can say?
The alternative scenario, of continuing with each country securing its own deals, would surely have delivered a better result for Germany, Italy and France, and almost certainly a worse one for many of the other members.
Why would it have delivered a worse result for many of the other members?
You do realise Serbia is in a better position than every EU country in the International Vaccine Table.
Because it is self evident that with a fixed (or as good as) total of vaccine available, it was a zero sum game. Had Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands progressed and landed their deal with AZN, there would have been less AZN vaccine available now for other EU members (and, possibly, the UK).
Was it really a zero sum game ? More money spent sooner on more vaccine efforts would likely have meant more production capacity available sooner. It not as though we haven't seen recent deals to put more capacity on stream.
Though @rcs1000 made an interesting point yesterday- the economics of vaccination mean that businesses will ramp up their production massively anyway, even without government intervention, because a vaccine you can sell now is worth way more than one you sell in 2023. And by 2024, you might not be able to give it away.
Invisible hand, innit.
They will now that they know the vaccine works. The crucial period where government support made a difference was before the trials were complete, and the companies couldn't be sure that they would have a vaccine to sell.
Brexit having been done, in my naivety I had thought that discussion of the shortcomings of the EU would diminish. How wrong I was. Brexiteers in particular, having left the EU, have become even more obsessed with it, as evidenced by the sheer volume of commentary on the EU on this site this year.
Anybody who thought that leaving the EU would stop those opposed to it "banging on" about it was as naive as I was.
We are destined to have the EU as part of our political debate for ever, and much more so than had we remained members.
I agree with the first part of that, but not the second. The EU will always be with us (as long as it exists anyway) but I think its salience will decline as its influence over us is reduced. Instead of spending a generation banging on about Europe, the Conservatives can now focus on the country's many other problems, most of which don't have a significant European dimension.
Of course, that may be a poisoned chalice.
We'll have to see. But look at the way that when Switzerland tried to do something on its own with its immigration policies, they quickly became embroiled in a wider trade dispute with the EU. Because of its size the EU is able to bully its smaller neighbours (which is wrong, but the US does the same in its sphere). Ironically the circumstance in which you may be right is the one where we maintain close alignment across the board.
We are not Switzerland.
Profound commentary.
Well, it's true, isn't it?
And what more needs to be said?
Switzerland tried to end free movement, and was put back in its box because of its size, geographical position and lack of economic bargaining power. We tried and, err, did - it's termination is already a reality.
The truth is (already proven) that the UK is too big, ugly and smelly to be pushed around and dictated to like Greece or Switzerland. We have compromises and choices to make, sure, but they're ones of practical debate and discussion.
So it was a pointless and transparently dumb post, and got all the response it needed.
Yet we are already begging for stuff.
No we're not.
Yes we are. A delay in the full border controls coming in, special arrangements for Northern Ireland, exemption for the UK shellfish industry, equivalence for financial services....a list that will only grow.
Yawn. There isn't going to be a "federal" Europe Philip. This is just a hobby horse of the extreme ends of the European debate, and those Brexiteers who really don't have the first clue about how Europe, or the EU works. When the EU expanded to the East this "dear" or nightmare was killed off as that trade off.
Hmm, let's look at that shall we? Since the EU started the process to admit the Eastern European countries, it has:
- launched a single currency, then seen it nearly fall apart - implemented the European Constitution, badly disguised as an intergovernmental treaty to avoid democracy - begun a European foreign policy - increased its budget - gained more and more say over dozens of policy areas, and given back only I think the ability to set daylight savings time to its member states - set up EU Border Guards - passed the GDPR - etc etc etc.
It is a remorseless accretion of power, and a fully federal EU is the logical outcome.
Does anyone have any mood lifting lockdown tips? Work a bit of a nightmare, done all the walks I can do, I’ve completed eBay,Amazon, Netflix, etc, there is nothing left to buy, read or watch. I’ve cooked interesting food. Zoom drinks leave me cold. Done DIY nonsense. Want to drive to Barnard Castle Scotland, but can’t. Even bored of arguing on the Internet.
Normally quite good at bootstrapping myself, but currently at a total loss.
I don't know if this helps but I've kept myself busy with projects in the house and garden, and Hobbycraft - I like railway modelling, for example, but there's also furniture building or woodcraft in the garden - or playing online games with friends.
Yes, exceptionally nerdy but this is pb.com and none of us were in the cool gang at school.
Wow, we actually have something in common, as my lockdown project is an N scale layout, currently at the sawing up plyboard for the sub roadbase stage.
Does anyone have any mood lifting lockdown tips? Work a bit of a nightmare, done all the walks I can do, I’ve completed eBay,Amazon, Netflix, etc, there is nothing left to buy, read or watch. I’ve cooked interesting food. Zoom drinks leave me cold. Done DIY nonsense. Want to drive to Barnard Castle Scotland, but can’t. Even bored of arguing on the Internet.
Normally quite good at bootstrapping myself, but currently at a total loss.
I don't know if this helps but I've kept myself busy with projects in the house and garden, and Hobbycraft - I like railway modelling, for example, but there's also furniture building or woodcraft in the garden - or playing online games with friends.
Yes, exceptionally nerdy but this is pb.com and none of us were in the cool gang at school.
So your case has dissolved into resting upon a hypothetical. It is almost certain that had the EU-wide process started a few months earlier, and had the necessary authority and budget to act on behalf of all members, they would have secured a better outcome than the one they have. How much better, who can say?
The alternative scenario, of continuing with each country securing its own deals, would surely have delivered a better result for Germany, Italy and France, and almost certainly a worse one for many of the other members.
Why would it have delivered a worse result for many of the other members?
You do realise Serbia is in a better position than every EU country in the International Vaccine Table.
Because it is self evident that with a fixed (or as good as) total of vaccine available, it was a zero sum game. Had Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands progressed and landed their deal with AZN, there would have been less AZN vaccine available now for other EU members (and, possibly, the UK).
It isn't a zero-sum game.
Serbia is using Sputnik and is about to manufacture it. That is why it is doing well & will shortly be doing even better.
It isn't a zero-sum game.
It isn't a zero-sum game because it's not the case that if one party wins another loses.
If the virus is suppressed anywhere by anyone that's good for us because it reduces the pool of infected/infectable people, and therefore the ability for the virus to persist and mutate, and also allows a more localised easing of restrictions and lockdowns, thus in aggregate helping the global economy grow.
Also, everyone recognises that almost everyone everywhere will ultimately need the vacinnation so it will become a complete sum game - the only question is when and who's a few months ahead of the others in the race at various points.
I think on balance that national competition within the complete sum game is probably healthy because notwithstanding the embarrassment it spurs everyone else to be better.
Yawn. There isn't going to be a "federal" Europe Philip. This is just a hobby horse of the extreme ends of the European debate, and those Brexiteers who really don't have the first clue about how Europe, or the EU works. When the EU expanded to the East this "dear" or nightmare was killed off as that trade off.
Hmm, let's look at that shall we? Since the EU started the process to admit the Eastern European countries, it has:
- launched a single currency, then seen it nearly fall apart - implemented the European Constitution, badly disguised as an intergovernmental treaty to avoid democracy - begun a European foreign policy - increased its budget - gained more and more say over dozens of policy areas, and given back only I think the ability to set daylight savings time to its member states - set up EU Border Guards - passed the GDPR - etc etc etc.
It is a remorseless accretion of power, and a fully federal EU is the logical outcome.
I don't think its even given back the ability to set daylight savings time to its member states, which would be logical.
Instead I believe its gone from saying all states must have daylight savings time (despite some not wanting it) to saying that all states must not have daylight savings time (despite some still wanting it).
Does anyone have any mood lifting lockdown tips? Work a bit of a nightmare, done all the walks I can do, I’ve completed eBay,Amazon, Netflix, etc, there is nothing left to buy, read or watch. I’ve cooked interesting food. Zoom drinks leave me cold. Done DIY nonsense. Want to drive to Barnard Castle Scotland, but can’t. Even bored of arguing on the Internet.
Normally quite good at bootstrapping myself, but currently at a total loss.
Learn a musical instrument or a new skill? And if it's the bagpipes, at least you can rejoice in the fact that your immediate neighbours will soon be miserable as well...
Personally my two go-to mood lifters are intense exercise (run/circuits etc.) or doing something repetitive whilst listening to music.
Brexit having been done, in my naivety I had thought that discussion of the shortcomings of the EU would diminish. How wrong I was. Brexiteers in particular, having left the EU, have become even more obsessed with it, as evidenced by the sheer volume of commentary on the EU on this site this year.
Anybody who thought that leaving the EU would stop those opposed to it "banging on" about it was as naive as I was.
We are destined to have the EU as part of our political debate for ever, and much more so than had we remained members. As is the case in both Norway and Switzerland.
What is amusing is seeing Brexiters trying to project their prior prejudices about the EU onto the story and re-writing the history to match
Nope, we are discussing our own regulatory reforms and trading strategy as an independent nation now - not the latest EU initiative or regulation that we will be irrevocably bound by from the Commission. Nor are we discussing in tedium every forthcoming European Council and how the UK will be obliged to go along with the next federalist power grab, or try and be a lone wolf. Neither are we getting frustrated about the latest ruling from the ECJ or the challenges of unrestricted and unqualified free movement.
We are talking about the EU's influence on us less, not more. We *are* discussing how to optimise our bilateral relationship with the EU, together with how the EU itself is performing, but that's quite a separate matter - and far more detached.
Well let's take one reasonably substantial UK sector - fishing financial services.
Absolutely everything that is being considered - good, bad or ugly - is being done in the context of the EU next door.
I don't see the evidence for that at all.
You might say that if you could say our domestic regulatory regime was being designed entirely now and in future to maintain equivalence with the EU, and avoid provocation of them.
I don't see any signs of that. I've seen Andrew Bailey say it's not worth it, and the City should recalibrate to more global markets, and suggestions from central Government that a slew of corresponding reform is coming later this year too - which the EU wants to wait for, before presumably then saying no.
Interesting piece, Philip, which has garnered a set of predictable responses.
It’s a fair question to ask why national governments, who are as you point out directly responsible to their electorates for healthcare, did not invoke the principle of subsidiarity. It doesn’t excuse the Commission’s failure, but if I were (for example) German or Dutch, I would be more angry with my own government over their derelictions.
And was it really a feint (and if so, to what end), or did you intend the more conventional faint praise ?
A typo, I meant faint praise.
I thought it was a clever pun!
Also an enjoyable and balanced header.
One of the most persuasive arguments for Brexit I read - posted by RCS1000, and which I cannot now find was written by a (Physics?) Professor who argued that the EU's "fatal" flaw is its inability to quickly correct errors - unlike the UK, which with the Common Law, independent judiciary (in most of it, anyway) and parliamentary system keeps making mistakes, but keeps correcting them - see COVID, one spectacular success among a procession of blunders (on a side note, WTF is this Scottish "if you change planes in Dublin quarantine doesn't apply?).
Take the EU vaccines roll out. The current orthodoxy is that "without the EU, big countries would have bought vaccines themselves (Germany, the biggest, did) and the smallest wouldn't have been able to (Malta, the smallest, has). So until the EU can face up to its mistakes frankly it will continue to struggle. And in the meantime fuelling anti-vaxers with the AZ game playing is a disgrace.
Yes, but that mistake was made by the national politicians of Germany (and presumably by extension of France, Italy and the Netherlands, being the other consortium members), who volunteered handing procurement over to the EU as a solution to the concerns from Belgium and others at being left out. Which was - from a purely German perspective - a mistake, but actually evidence of the strength of the EU project in that the Germans clearly thought it a better way to proceed.
The way some Brexiters carry on you'd think the EU bigwigs had muscled in on the whole exercise and then made a hash of it, rather than having it dropped upon them by national governments when they started to fall out.
Does anyone have any mood lifting lockdown tips? Work a bit of a nightmare, done all the walks I can do, I’ve completed eBay,Amazon, Netflix, etc, there is nothing left to buy, read or watch. I’ve cooked interesting food. Zoom drinks leave me cold. Done DIY nonsense. Want to drive to Barnard Castle Scotland, but can’t. Even bored of arguing on the Internet.
Normally quite good at bootstrapping myself, but currently at a total loss.
My wife has started buying me Lego kits.
I have a 1969-piece Saturn V, an international space station and a Porsche racing car so far - each takes about 10-15 hours and costs around £100. Good for something relaxing to do indoors
Does anyone have any mood lifting lockdown tips? Work a bit of a nightmare, done all the walks I can do, I’ve completed eBay,Amazon, Netflix, etc, there is nothing left to buy, read or watch. I’ve cooked interesting food. Zoom drinks leave me cold. Done DIY nonsense. Want to drive to Barnard Castle Scotland, but can’t. Even bored of arguing on the Internet.
Normally quite good at bootstrapping myself, but currently at a total loss.
I don't know if this helps but I've kept myself busy with projects in the house and garden, and Hobbycraft - I like railway modelling, for example, but there's also furniture building or woodcraft in the garden - or playing online games with friends.
Yes, exceptionally nerdy but this is pb.com and none of us were in the cool gang at school.
So your case has dissolved into resting upon a hypothetical. It is almost certain that had the EU-wide process started a few months earlier, and had the necessary authority and budget to act on behalf of all members, they would have secured a better outcome than the one they have. How much better, who can say?
The alternative scenario, of continuing with each country securing its own deals, would surely have delivered a better result for Germany, Italy and France, and almost certainly a worse one for many of the other members.
Why would it have delivered a worse result for many of the other members?
You do realise Serbia is in a better position than every EU country in the International Vaccine Table.
Because it is self evident that with a fixed (or as good as) total of vaccine available, it was a zero sum game. Had Germany, France, Italy and the Netherlands progressed and landed their deal with AZN, there would have been less AZN vaccine available now for other EU members (and, possibly, the UK).
Was it really a zero sum game ? More money spent sooner on more vaccine efforts would likely have meant more production capacity available sooner. It not as though we haven't seen recent deals to put more capacity on stream.
Though @rcs1000 made an interesting point yesterday- the economics of vaccination mean that businesses will ramp up their production massively anyway, even without government intervention, because a vaccine you can sell now is worth way more than one you sell in 2023. And by 2024, you might not be able to give it away.
Invisible hand, innit.
That might now be true, but without government intervention and funding right at the start, many of those vaccines wouldn't exist at all (Pfizer being an obvious exception to that). Which underlines the importance of fast action by governments at the start.
The thing about pandemics is that the benefits of effective vaccines so far outweigh the costs that some inefficiencies and duplications of effort matter far less than getting fast results.
LOL, Ali 43 from 18 balls, to be England’s highest scorer of the match!
Which says a lot about England’s performance with the bat, and not in a good way.
Next Test, Crawley and Bairstow become available. Do Lawrence and Pope keep their places? What about Burns?
Similarly, do we recall Anderson in place of Broad? Or play Woakes instead of either?
Does Moeen get asked to stay for a bit longer? Or should Dom Bess be asked to return to the side having been told he’s not good enough?
Some difficult questions ahead of the next Test.
But let’s not forget, England did win the first Test. These are questions that can be answered.
Aren't Anderson and Broad alternating ? If Anderson plays, and Moeen (or less likely, a returning Bess) can find some consistent accuracy (both big ifs), then England have a real chance. In both India's and England's match winning innings, it was only two or three batsmen who made significant runs.
I think the plan has always been to play Anderson and Broad together in the day/nite game. Seems Stokes can hardly bowl so they more or less have to now. Bess comes in for Ali, Crawley for Lawrence. The openers stay as they are.
Does anyone have any mood lifting lockdown tips? Work a bit of a nightmare, done all the walks I can do, I’ve completed eBay,Amazon, Netflix, etc, there is nothing left to buy, read or watch. I’ve cooked interesting food. Zoom drinks leave me cold. Done DIY nonsense. Want to drive to Barnard Castle Scotland, but can’t. Even bored of arguing on the Internet.
Normally quite good at bootstrapping myself, but currently at a total loss.
My wife has started buying me Lego kits.
I have a 1969-piece Saturn V, an international space station and a Porsche racing car so far - each takes about 10-15 hours and costs around £100. Good for something relaxing to do indoors
Yawn. There isn't going to be a "federal" Europe Philip. This is just a hobby horse of the extreme ends of the European debate, and those Brexiteers who really don't have the first clue about how Europe, or the EU works. When the EU expanded to the East this "dear" or nightmare was killed off as that trade off. It is of course a favourite canard of the British Brexiteer right as another foreigner-phobe stick to try and convince us that Brexit was not a charter for thickos.
By the way, with respect to your obsession with vaccines (because it is the only apparent good news for Brexit we will hear about it ad nauseam no doubt). If UK was still part of EU we would have probably gone our own way anyway. The MHRA followed the same procedures that it did when leading the way in Europe as a regulator. Our pointless exit from EU would probably have made no difference whatsoever.
I hope for the sake of Europe you're wrong because Europe would be better not worse as a proper federation.
As was the point of my argument it is the halfway house that is weakest. Europe currently has quite strong powers but little in the way of strong scrutiny of those powers. A proper federal system would lead to centralisation true, but it will lead to much better scrutiny, control and accountability for how those powers are used.
If Europe wants powers exercised 'in solidarity' then "more Europe" and more federalisation is a positive step forward in its evolution, not something to criticise - and if you're against that then the repatriation of those powers back to the elected nation states should be the alternative.
The EU is/was and always be a supranational body formed by treaty in the same way as NATO. The fact that a few dumbasses dreamt it would lead to a USof E does not and will not make it inevitable. It is an organisation that is founded on compromise and has strengths and weaknesses as a result. As @Gardenwalker implied the other day, you think about it in a very binary and simplistic way and this is indicative of many people from the Brexit apologist camp think. The EU is no more perfect of imperfect than the British government, NATO or the UN. Sometimes it gets things right and sometimes wrong. Quelle surprise! It is a mixture of individual states with different agendas and at times different people with varying skill driving the agendas.
The fundamental reason why I dislike nationalism so much is because it attempts to drive change from division, negativity and blind prejudice. This is why Brexit and Scottish separatism are peas in the same negative hate filled pod. Irrespective of the success of the vaccine rollout (which I think we would have done independently anyway had we still been in EU) , on balance Brexit has been a foreign policy disaster for the UK, and the trading outcome even worse. The latter will improve as people who run businesses look for what small silver linings we can find. The former will require a change of the clown that is current PM
The idea that Ursula Von Der Leyen could not win national elections is ludicrious. Ursula is like Nicola Stugeon a superb communicator but has a much more attractive feminine presence. And for those voters who like politicians to be multi-lingual and who have been parents Ursula has a much better personal CV than many recent female leaders like May,Merkel and Sturgeon who have never worked abroad and however politically incorrect no experience of parenthood.For millions of voters being a parent is the most important thing in their lives.And there will be sophisticated voters who regard that to be success working in a foreign country is a signal of talent.The British Establishment is full of people in authority whose 'success' seems to be based on being well connected yes men/women. British soccer is full of reputations based entirely on working in Britain .Most UK soccer managers were overrated as Wenger,Klopp,Pep etc have exposed whilst there have been few genuinely world class UK players. If they had proved themselves abroad then it might be a different story Everybody makes mistakes.Politics is a harsh business where reputations are based not on how many good decisions one makes but the luck factor with a handful of big decisions.In some cases as with Tony Blair only 1 decision - a bad one The Iraq War .Or vice versa Churchill a good one as regards opposing appeasement
Does anyone have any mood lifting lockdown tips? Work a bit of a nightmare, done all the walks I can do, I’ve completed eBay,Amazon, Netflix, etc, there is nothing left to buy, read or watch. I’ve cooked interesting food. Zoom drinks leave me cold. Done DIY nonsense. Want to drive to Barnard Castle Scotland, but can’t. Even bored of arguing on the Internet.
Normally quite good at bootstrapping myself, but currently at a total loss.
I don't know if this helps but I've kept myself busy with projects in the house and garden, and Hobbycraft - I like railway modelling, for example, but there's also furniture building or woodcraft in the garden - or playing online games with friends.
Yes, exceptionally nerdy but this is pb.com and none of us were in the cool gang at school.
Wow, we actually have something in common, as my lockdown project is an N scale layout, currently at the sawing up plyboard for the sub roadbase stage.
Good man. Personally? I've never get on with N gauge. Too small and fiddly. O gauge shows up the imperfections too easily and is just too big.
I'm a OO man myself, even though the scaling is strictly speaking not entirely accurate.
Does anyone have any mood lifting lockdown tips? Work a bit of a nightmare, done all the walks I can do, I’ve completed eBay,Amazon, Netflix, etc, there is nothing left to buy, read or watch. I’ve cooked interesting food. Zoom drinks leave me cold. Done DIY nonsense. Want to drive to Barnard Castle Scotland, but can’t. Even bored of arguing on the Internet.
Normally quite good at bootstrapping myself, but currently at a total loss.
Sean recommends intensive indoor exercise. Other possibilities are study - use the incredible wealth of learning resources on the internet to do a course, learn a skill, a language, music, art, craft, whatever - or return to one of your childhood hobbies.
WEA Courses? I'm doing one on Icelandic Myths and Mythology at the moment. Savage lot the Norse gods. Only trouble seems to be that they aren't written down until Scandinavia (plus Iceland) was Christian so there's an element of 'these are only stories of course'. According to the lecturer there's also an element of the 'writer down' being highly educated and introducing stuff about them being descended from Troy and suchlike. A bit like the legend of Brutus of Troy becoming a King of the Britons.
Brexit having been done, in my naivety I had thought that discussion of the shortcomings of the EU would diminish. How wrong I was. Brexiteers in particular, having left the EU, have become even more obsessed with it, as evidenced by the sheer volume of commentary on the EU on this site this year.
Anybody who thought that leaving the EU would stop those opposed to it "banging on" about it was as naive as I was.
We are destined to have the EU as part of our political debate for ever, and much more so than had we remained members. As is the case in both Norway and Switzerland.
What is amusing is seeing Brexiters trying to project their prior prejudices about the EU onto the story and re-writing the history to match
Nope, we are discussing our own regulatory reforms and trading strategy as an independent nation now - not the latest EU initiative or regulation that we will be irrevocably bound by from the Commission. Nor are we discussing in tedium every forthcoming European Council and how the UK will be obliged to go along with the next federalist power grab, or try and be a lone wolf. Neither are we getting frustrated about the latest ruling from the ECJ or the challenges of unrestricted and unqualified free movement.
We are talking about the EU's influence on us less, not more. We *are* discussing how to optimise our bilateral relationship with the EU, together with how the EU itself is performing, but that's quite a separate matter - and far more detached.
Well let's take one reasonably substantial UK sector - fishing financial services.
Absolutely everything that is being considered - good, bad or ugly - is being done in the context of the EU next door.
I don't see the evidence for that at all.
You might say that if you could say our domestic regulatory regime was being designed entirely now and in future to maintain equivalence with the EU, and avoid provocation of them.
I don't see any signs of that. I've seen Andrew Bailey say it's not worth it, and the City should recalibrate to more global markets, and suggestions from central Government that a slew of corresponding reform is coming later this year too - which the EU wants to wait for, before presumably then saying no.
Heck you only have to look at the suggested changes the BoE announced yesterday to see that our Financial services approach may be better than the EU's.
Allowing software to be used as capital isn't a great idea (I suspect it's there to allow a hole to be cheaply papered over but it isn't actually sane on any other grounds).
Interesting piece, Philip, which has garnered a set of predictable responses.
It’s a fair question to ask why national governments, who are as you point out directly responsible to their electorates for healthcare, did not invoke the principle of subsidiarity. It doesn’t excuse the Commission’s failure, but if I were (for example) German or Dutch, I would be more angry with my own government over their derelictions.
And was it really a feint (and if so, to what end), or did you intend the more conventional faint praise ?
A typo, I meant faint praise.
I thought it was a clever pun!
Also an enjoyable and balanced header.
One of the most persuasive arguments for Brexit I read - posted by RCS1000, and which I cannot now find was written by a (Physics?) Professor who argued that the EU's "fatal" flaw is its inability to quickly correct errors - unlike the UK, which with the Common Law, independent judiciary (in most of it, anyway) and parliamentary system keeps making mistakes, but keeps correcting them - see COVID, one spectacular success among a procession of blunders (on a side note, WTF is this Scottish "if you change planes in Dublin quarantine doesn't apply?).
Take the EU vaccines roll out. The current orthodoxy is that "without the EU, big countries would have bought vaccines themselves (Germany, the biggest, did) and the smallest wouldn't have been able to (Malta, the smallest, has). So until the EU can face up to its mistakes frankly it will continue to struggle. And in the meantime fuelling anti-vaxers with the AZ game playing is a disgrace.
Yes, but that mistake was made by the national politicians of Germany (and presumably by extension of France, Italy and the Netherlands, being the other consortium members), who volunteered handing procurement over to the EU as a solution to the concerns from Belgium and others at being left out. Which was - from a purely German perspective - a mistake, but actually evidence of the strength of the EU project in that the Germans clearly thought it a better way to proceed.
The way some Brexiters carry on you'd think the EU bigwigs had muscled in on the whole exercise and then made a hash of it, rather than having it dropped upon them by national governments when they started to fall out.
Not "German politicians" but "Merkel" who over-ruled her health minister and forced him to write a grovelling letter to the EU. I suspect history may be unkinder to Ms Merkel than her contemporaries.
Does anyone have any mood lifting lockdown tips? Work a bit of a nightmare, done all the walks I can do, I’ve completed eBay,Amazon, Netflix, etc, there is nothing left to buy, read or watch. I’ve cooked interesting food. Zoom drinks leave me cold. Done DIY nonsense. Want to drive to Barnard Castle Scotland, but can’t. Even bored of arguing on the Internet.
Normally quite good at bootstrapping myself, but currently at a total loss.
My wife has started buying me Lego kits.
I have a 1969-piece Saturn V, an international space station and a Porsche racing car so far - each takes about 10-15 hours and costs around £100. Good for something relaxing to do indoors
You got yourself a keeper there!
Haven’t I just!
As a way to bring out the 40-year-old 14-year-old in someone, the huge modern Lego kits really take some beating.
The Apollo rocket is a metre long, took a couple of days to build and gave a massive sense of achievement when completed.
And it doesn’t involve watching TV, drinking, arguing with people online or annoying the neighbours, unlike most other pandemic persuits!
Does anyone have any mood lifting lockdown tips? Work a bit of a nightmare, done all the walks I can do, I’ve completed eBay,Amazon, Netflix, etc, there is nothing left to buy, read or watch. I’ve cooked interesting food. Zoom drinks leave me cold. Done DIY nonsense. Want to drive to Barnard Castle Scotland, but can’t. Even bored of arguing on the Internet.
Normally quite good at bootstrapping myself, but currently at a total loss.
Sympathies. I hesitate to say this, but "nothing left to... read"? There's a lot of books out there, fiction and non-fiction. I've found that broadening my reading repertoire has kept me sane over the last year.
Does anyone have any mood lifting lockdown tips? Work a bit of a nightmare, done all the walks I can do, I’ve completed eBay,Amazon, Netflix, etc, there is nothing left to buy, read or watch. I’ve cooked interesting food. Zoom drinks leave me cold. Done DIY nonsense. Want to drive to Barnard Castle Scotland, but can’t. Even bored of arguing on the Internet.
Normally quite good at bootstrapping myself, but currently at a total loss.
I don't know if this helps but I've kept myself busy with projects in the house and garden, and Hobbycraft - I like railway modelling, for example, but there's also furniture building or woodcraft in the garden - or playing online games with friends.
Yes, exceptionally nerdy but this is pb.com and none of us were in the cool gang at school.
Wow, we actually have something in common, as my lockdown project is an N scale layout, currently at the sawing up plyboard for the sub roadbase stage.
Good man. Personally? I've never get on with N gauge. Too small and fiddly. O gauge shows up the imperfections too easily and is just too big.
I'm a OO man myself, even though the scaling is strictly speaking not entirely accurate.
I know what you mean (and am starting to realise that as fiddly jobs start to loom). On the other hand, I wanted a proper layout with some proper scenery; most HO/OO layouts are so constrained by the space that they are really diaromas, just a station or industrial scene with a track looping around the back.
My biggest worry about returning back to normal is that I might have gone to seed.
I've regressed back into habits I had when I was a student twenty years ago: I get up late, fart about*, dodge pointless meetings (except those client ones I cannot), pump out my work in just 3-4 hours a day and otherwise do my own thing. I don't look particularly hard for extra work to do, or to be "seen" at the right events doing and saying the right things, I'm mature enough in my career that no-one checks up on me anymore. And I just don't care anymore.
The 8-9 hour office day - together with 1.5-hour commute each way, each day, all suited and booted - isn't really something I can project myself back into easily anymore :-/
Does anyone have any mood lifting lockdown tips? Work a bit of a nightmare, done all the walks I can do, I’ve completed eBay,Amazon, Netflix, etc, there is nothing left to buy, read or watch. I’ve cooked interesting food. Zoom drinks leave me cold. Done DIY nonsense. Want to drive to Barnard Castle Scotland, but can’t. Even bored of arguing on the Internet.
Normally quite good at bootstrapping myself, but currently at a total loss.
My wife has started buying me Lego kits.
I have a 1969-piece Saturn V, an international space station and a Porsche racing car so far - each takes about 10-15 hours and costs around £100. Good for something relaxing to do indoors
That 1969 - a curious coincidence indeed.
Indeed. They definitely didn’t spend ages trying to work that out.
Does anyone have any mood lifting lockdown tips? Work a bit of a nightmare, done all the walks I can do, I’ve completed eBay,Amazon, Netflix, etc, there is nothing left to buy, read or watch. I’ve cooked interesting food. Zoom drinks leave me cold. Done DIY nonsense. Want to drive to Barnard Castle Scotland, but can’t. Even bored of arguing on the Internet.
Normally quite good at bootstrapping myself, but currently at a total loss.
Got to go with the exercise thing. Don't learn how to knit or speak/read Greek.
My tip? Spenny but worth it - get a VR set and knock yourself out on the exercise/activity games. I play "Thrill of the Fight" every day (6 x 3mins x2) and not only is it pretty good at replicating as much as possible the actual activity but all the good exercise/endorphin benefits.
You can pick up an Oculus headset for around £300 I think. Not cheap but well worth it for overall well-being and cheaper (I think?) than the entire Loeb Classics series.
Yawn. There isn't going to be a "federal" Europe Philip. This is just a hobby horse of the extreme ends of the European debate, and those Brexiteers who really don't have the first clue about how Europe, or the EU works. When the EU expanded to the East this "dear" or nightmare was killed off as that trade off. It is of course a favourite canard of the British Brexiteer right as another foreigner-phobe stick to try and convince us that Brexit was not a charter for thickos.
By the way, with respect to your obsession with vaccines (because it is the only apparent good news for Brexit we will hear about it ad nauseam no doubt). If UK was still part of EU we would have probably gone our own way anyway. The MHRA followed the same procedures that it did when leading the way in Europe as a regulator. Our pointless exit from EU would probably have made no difference whatsoever.
I hope for the sake of Europe you're wrong because Europe would be better not worse as a proper federation.
As was the point of my argument it is the halfway house that is weakest. Europe currently has quite strong powers but little in the way of strong scrutiny of those powers. A proper federal system would lead to centralisation true, but it will lead to much better scrutiny, control and accountability for how those powers are used.
If Europe wants powers exercised 'in solidarity' then "more Europe" and more federalisation is a positive step forward in its evolution, not something to criticise - and if you're against that then the repatriation of those powers back to the elected nation states should be the alternative.
The EU is/was and always be a supranational body formed by treaty in the same way as NATO. The fact that a few dumbasses dreamt it would lead to a USof E does not and will not make it inevitable. It is an organisation that is founded on compromise and has strengths and weaknesses as a result. As @Gardenwalker implied the other day, you think about it in a very binary and simplistic way and this is indicative of many people from the Brexit apologist camp think. The EU is no more perfect of imperfect than the British government, NATO or the UN. Sometimes it gets things right and sometimes wrong. Quelle surprise! It is a mixture of individual states with different agendas and at times different people with varying skill driving the agendas.
The fundamental reason why I dislike nationalism so much is because it attempts to drive change from division, negativity and blind prejudice. This is why Brexit and Scottish separatism are peas in the same negative hate filled pod. Irrespective of the success of the vaccine rollout (which I think we would have done independently anyway had we still been in EU) , on balance Brexit has been a foreign policy disaster for the UK, and the trading outcome even worse. The latter will improve as people who run businesses look for what small silver linings we can find. The former will require a change of the clown that is current PM
You're the one who engages in hate not me. I've never said a hateful thing about them. Indeed I made the point that it was the nation states that chose to hand power over this to UvdL, they were under no obligation to do so.
You're the one who is thinking in a binary and simplistic manner too. The EU is not NATO, it is a shade of grey inbetween a supranational body and a nation state of its own. That grey is ever so gradually getting a deeper shade as more integration naturally evolves especially as a result of the Single Monetary Policy. If you honestly think the EU 20 to 30 years from now will be the same as it is now then it is you that is being simplistic and refusing to think, it isn't even the same as it was five years ago let alone ten.
It is evolving and transitioning and I wish it well in doing so but the end state must eventually include more democratic accountability - which will naturally drive forwards further centralisation as a result.
Nice thread header - many thanks to PT. Interesting to see something on EU politics.
The EU vaccination rollout certainly is a failure when set against the British one. But if compared to allowing European countries to go it alone?
I'd imagine some nations would have done better, but most (particularly the smaller ones) would have done worse. The philosophy of collective negotiating doesn't seem a mistake to me.
Must be damn grim in those smaller European countries, having very little vaccine and not much hope of more appearing in the near future. You can think our government has done a cracking job whilst also having sympathy for those not in our fortunate position. Whatever the impact on EU politics, lets hope they soon their own supplies (ie not stealing ours) to help ALL of us get the Bastard Bug back in its box.
(Although, somewhat less sympathy for Belgium, who insisted that the EU get a better price and then boasted of having got that better price than the UK. Which it now appears a) caused months of extra delays across the whole EU and b) was a lie - we all pay effectively the same cost price.)
To be fair to Juncker he was elected, at least indirectly, as the spitzenkandidaten of the centre right EPP in the 2014 European Parliament elections after the EPP became the largest party. Whatever Von Der Leyen's managerial, administrative and diplomatic abilities it is a shame she was not elected under the same system.
As the EU is now already in the top 3 economies in the world collectively alongside the US and China, has its own currency and is also starting to develop its own Foreign Policy and potentially its own army too who heads it is of major global importance, as is how they get the job.
Brexit having been done, in my naivety I had thought that discussion of the shortcomings of the EU would diminish. How wrong I was. Brexiteers in particular, having left the EU, have become even more obsessed with it, as evidenced by the sheer volume of commentary on the EU on this site this year.
Anybody who thought that leaving the EU would stop those opposed to it "banging on" about it was as naive as I was.
We are destined to have the EU as part of our political debate for ever, and much more so than had we remained members.
I agree with the first part of that, but not the second. The EU will always be with us (as long as it exists anyway) but I think its salience will decline as its influence over us is reduced. Instead of spending a generation banging on about Europe, the Conservatives can now focus on the country's many other problems, most of which don't have a significant European dimension.
Of course, that may be a poisoned chalice.
We'll have to see. But look at the way that when Switzerland tried to do something on its own with its immigration policies, they quickly became embroiled in a wider trade dispute with the EU. Because of its size the EU is able to bully its smaller neighbours (which is wrong, but the US does the same in its sphere). Ironically the circumstance in which you may be right is the one where we maintain close alignment across the board.
We are not Switzerland.
Profound commentary.
Well, it's true, isn't it?
And what more needs to be said?
Switzerland tried to end free movement, and was put back in its box because of its size, geographical position and lack of economic bargaining power. We tried and, err, did - it's termination is already a reality.
The truth is (already proven) that the UK is too big, ugly and smelly to be pushed around and dictated to like Greece or Switzerland. We have compromises and choices to make, sure, but they're ones of practical debate and discussion.
So it was a pointless and transparently dumb post, and got all the response it needed.
And the fact you didn't spend the 2 seconds it required me to find that fact says a lot about both this argument and your other posts as it's now highly possible that you won't have done basic fact checks there either.
The Swiss voted to end free movement in 2014, which led to the negotiations we were discussing:
The negotiations didn't go anywhere, it ended with a very light national preference for Swiss citizens and free movement was then re-ratified in second vote last year.
The fact that you didn't spend the 2 seconds it required me to find the evidence to support the very obvious discussion we were having says a lot about not only this "killer point" but all the other "killer points" you try to make in your other posts too.
Yawn. There isn't going to be a "federal" Europe Philip. This is just a hobby horse of the extreme ends of the European debate, and those Brexiteers who really don't have the first clue about how Europe, or the EU works. When the EU expanded to the East this "dear" or nightmare was killed off as that trade off.
Hmm, let's look at that shall we? Since the EU started the process to admit the Eastern European countries, it has:
- launched a single currency, then seen it nearly fall apart - implemented the European Constitution, badly disguised as an intergovernmental treaty to avoid democracy - begun a European foreign policy - increased its budget - gained more and more say over dozens of policy areas, and given back only I think the ability to set daylight savings time to its member states - set up EU Border Guards - passed the GDPR - etc etc etc.
It is a remorseless accretion of power, and a fully federal EU is the logical outcome.
I don't think its even given back the ability to set daylight savings time to its member states, which would be logical.
Instead I believe its gone from saying all states must have daylight savings time (despite some not wanting it) to saying that all states must not have daylight savings time (despite some still wanting it).
Reading up on it, you're right.
So in this respect it is even more of a unitary state than the United States or Australia, which allow their states to set DST.
Very sinister.
(Although ironically I'd be happy if we scrapped DST myself. Still that's a choice for us to make).
Does anyone have any mood lifting lockdown tips? Work a bit of a nightmare, done all the walks I can do, I’ve completed eBay,Amazon, Netflix, etc, there is nothing left to buy, read or watch. I’ve cooked interesting food. Zoom drinks leave me cold. Done DIY nonsense. Want to drive to Barnard Castle Scotland, but can’t. Even bored of arguing on the Internet.
Normally quite good at bootstrapping myself, but currently at a total loss.
I don't know if this helps but I've kept myself busy with projects in the house and garden, and Hobbycraft - I like railway modelling, for example, but there's also furniture building or woodcraft in the garden - or playing online games with friends.
Yes, exceptionally nerdy but this is pb.com and none of us were in the cool gang at school.
Outrageous. It didn't get much cooler than the chess club!
Does anyone have any mood lifting lockdown tips? Work a bit of a nightmare, done all the walks I can do, I’ve completed eBay,Amazon, Netflix, etc, there is nothing left to buy, read or watch. I’ve cooked interesting food. Zoom drinks leave me cold. Done DIY nonsense. Want to drive to Barnard Castle Scotland, but can’t. Even bored of arguing on the Internet.
Normally quite good at bootstrapping myself, but currently at a total loss.
I don't know if this helps but I've kept myself busy with projects in the house and garden, and Hobbycraft - I like railway modelling, for example, but there's also furniture building or woodcraft in the garden - or playing online games with friends.
Yes, exceptionally nerdy but this is pb.com and none of us were in the cool gang at school.
Wow, we actually have something in common, as my lockdown project is an N scale layout, currently at the sawing up plyboard for the sub roadbase stage.
Good man. Personally? I've never get on with N gauge. Too small and fiddly. O gauge shows up the imperfections too easily and is just too big.
I'm a OO man myself, even though the scaling is strictly speaking not entirely accurate.
I know what you mean (and am starting to realise that as fiddly jobs start to loom). On the other hand, I wanted a proper layout with some proper scenery; most HO/OO layouts are so constrained by the space that they are really diaromas, just a station or industrial scene with a track looping around the back.
My layout is (of course) set in Europe.
I told somebody to do a railway layout the other day.
Totally shocked that it was already planned, and the debate was "garage loft" or "garden room". Chap is a tech startup type in Cambridge. Far more decadent than my Cornish Oysters. *
I still have a 1970s Hornby set in it's original packaging, that probably needs to be sold. Ditto a Zero One.
Personally I'm about to get into the garden a bit earlier this year.
* Cornish Octopuses today. Does anyone have any tips? Last time was shallow fried with dips.
Does anyone have any mood lifting lockdown tips? Work a bit of a nightmare, done all the walks I can do, I’ve completed eBay,Amazon, Netflix, etc, there is nothing left to buy, read or watch. I’ve cooked interesting food. Zoom drinks leave me cold. Done DIY nonsense. Want to drive to Barnard Castle Scotland, but can’t. Even bored of arguing on the Internet.
Normally quite good at bootstrapping myself, but currently at a total loss.
I don't know if this helps but I've kept myself busy with projects in the house and garden, and Hobbycraft - I like railway modelling, for example, but there's also furniture building or woodcraft in the garden - or playing online games with friends.
Yes, exceptionally nerdy but this is pb.com and none of us were in the cool gang at school.
Wow, we actually have something in common, as my lockdown project is an N scale layout, currently at the sawing up plyboard for the sub roadbase stage.
Good man. Personally? I've never get on with N gauge. Too small and fiddly. O gauge shows up the imperfections too easily and is just too big.
I'm a OO man myself, even though the scaling is strictly speaking not entirely accurate.
I know what you mean (and am starting to realise that as fiddly jobs start to loom). On the other hand, I wanted a proper layout with some proper scenery; most HO/OO layouts are so constrained by the space that they are really diaromas, just a station or industrial scene with a track looping around the back.
My layout is (of course) set in Europe.
Ha. Of course it is!
That can still be quite fun, though. Particularly Bavarian/Swiss models.
Does anyone have any mood lifting lockdown tips? Work a bit of a nightmare, done all the walks I can do, I’ve completed eBay,Amazon, Netflix, etc, there is nothing left to buy, read or watch. I’ve cooked interesting food. Zoom drinks leave me cold. Done DIY nonsense. Want to drive to Barnard Castle Scotland, but can’t. Even bored of arguing on the Internet.
Normally quite good at bootstrapping myself, but currently at a total loss.
Got to go with the exercise thing. Don't learn how to knit or speak/read Greek.
My tip? Spenny but worth it - get a VR set and knock yourself out on the exercise/activity games. I play "Thrill of the Fight" every day (6 x 3mins x2) and not only is it pretty good at replicating as much as possible the actual activity but all the good exercise/endorphin benefits.
You can pick up an Oculus headset for around £300 I think. Not cheap but well worth it for overall well-being and cheaper (I think?) than the entire Loeb Classics series.
Can certainly echo this my vr headset keeps me sane not only games and exercise but places you can just wander round as if you were there. Only trouble with the oculus is it now requires a facebook account. There are however many other headsets out
Comments
By the way, with respect to your obsession with vaccines (because it is the only apparent good news for Brexit we will hear about it ad nauseam no doubt). If UK was still part of EU we would have probably gone our own way anyway. The MHRA followed the same procedures that it did when leading the way in Europe as a regulator. Our pointless exit from EU would probably have made no difference whatsoever.
We are talking about the EU's influence on us less, not more. We *are* discussing how to optimise our bilateral relationship with the EU, together with how the EU itself is performing, but that's quite a separate matter - and far more detached.
- In March last year, the amount of COVID vaccine production capacity was 0.
- This year it will be a x billion doses per year.
What is relatively invariant is the amount of vaccine that can be produced *now*. The trajectory was decided months ago....
If as I expect Europe eventually evolves into a proper federation with proper democracy and proper elections then we will talk about it even more. Though it will be as interested observers from the outside, just as we do with our cousins across the pond.
But it’s not brilliant management of Bess, it has to be said.
Motes and Beams.
It's hard to argue with the main thrust. To be kind to the EU - and why should we be? - the pandemic caught the EU at an awkward point in its evolution, not quite a State but no longer just a mere trading organisation. At least now we should see what it wants to be and how it intends to go about it. Maybe it could start attending to some of its long-running sores too. How about getting the accounts signed off for a start?
And it needs some better statesmen at the top. I used to like Tusk, but he seems to have disappeared. Barnier impresses but what exactly is his role now that Brexit is done and dusted? UvdL appears to be ore show than substance, despite Philip's heroic defense.
The EU has never been so vulnerable to criticism, even from those of us who think it is fundamentally a good idea. Maybe the pandemic will help it to redefine itself and smarten up its act. Even those of us who stand outside it now would welcome that.
Catch you again later Phil. Got to go out now. Well done again.
I was offered a range of dates and picked a Saturday so I would not need time off work, so I would probably count as having been offered one by the 30th of April.
There are a whole slew of regular posters on here who underline or echo such sentiments of peril.
Maybe this is simply because we notice those who disagree with us more, whilst "banking" those who do not?
Against that, of course, they never made the mistake of joining in the first place, so from that point of view they start from a much better position than we do.
Output scales with investment. More investment, sooner equals more output. Its as simple as that.
Introducing a three month delay on the investment is what set behind production. It isn't complicated. Invest three months sooner, manufacturing begins and becomes optimised three months sooner, more output available.
fishingfinancial services.Absolutely everything that is being considered - good, bad or ugly - is being done in the context of the EU next door.
More money spent sooner on more vaccine efforts would likely have meant more production capacity available sooner. It not as though we haven't seen recent deals to put more capacity on stream.
Not least because rises always seem to happen just before I get paid...
Serbia is using Sputnik and is about to manufacture it. That is why it is doing well & will shortly be doing even better.
It isn't a zero-sum game.
"If your country were not yet in the EU, would you vote to join it? Yes/No."
I suspect that might show how much quicksand underpins the EU.
And if that had been the case the EU wouldn't be in the mess it currently is.
Also an enjoyable and balanced header.
One of the most persuasive arguments for Brexit I read - posted by RCS1000, and which I cannot now find was written by a (Physics?) Professor who argued that the EU's "fatal" flaw is its inability to quickly correct errors - unlike the UK, which with the Common Law, independent judiciary (in most of it, anyway) and parliamentary system keeps making mistakes, but keeps correcting them - see COVID, one spectacular success among a procession of blunders (on a side note, WTF is this Scottish "if you change planes in Dublin quarantine doesn't apply?).
Take the EU vaccines roll out. The current orthodoxy is that "without the EU, big countries would have bought vaccines themselves (Germany, the biggest, did) and the smallest wouldn't have been able to (Malta, the smallest, has). So until the EU can face up to its mistakes frankly it will continue to struggle. And in the meantime fuelling anti-vaxers with the AZ game playing is a disgrace.
https://www.politico.eu/coronavirus-in-europe/
As was the point of my argument it is the halfway house that is weakest. Europe currently has quite strong powers but little in the way of strong scrutiny of those powers. A proper federal system would lead to centralisation true, but it will lead to much better scrutiny, control and accountability for how those powers are used.
If Europe wants powers exercised 'in solidarity' then "more Europe" and more federalisation is a positive step forward in its evolution, not something to criticise - and if you're against that then the repatriation of those powers back to the elected nation states should be the alternative.
Invisible hand, innit.
It at least matches their other half-arsed attempts.
The EU vaccination rollout certainly is a failure when set against the British one. But if compared to allowing European countries to go it alone?
I'd imagine some nations would have done better, but most (particularly the smaller ones) would have done worse.
The philosophy of collective negotiating doesn't seem a mistake to me.
Does anyone have any mood lifting lockdown tips? Work a bit of a nightmare, done all the walks I can do, I’ve completed eBay,Amazon, Netflix, etc, there is nothing left to buy, read or watch. I’ve cooked interesting food. Zoom drinks leave me cold. Done DIY nonsense. Want to drive to
Barnard CastleScotland, but can’t. Even bored of arguing on the Internet.Normally quite good at bootstrapping myself, but currently at a total loss.
Brexiters rail against the supposed 'centralisation' of the EU (despite this episode illustrating the opposite, as it appears you at least have astutely recognised) yet we live in one of the most centralised states in the world (which, to anticipate the obvious challenge has, in the case of the NHS, has proved advantageous - but more generally its a handicap).
Pre-purchasing the vaccines and investing in production facilities turned a "bet" on the success of a vaccine, from the point of view of a company, into a zero risk operation.
The invisible hand didn't work with ramping up speculative efforts. Hence the UK, USA, India, Israel and others 'pump primed' the investment in speculative vaccines before they were authorised while they were still in Stage 3 trials allowing them to be ready sooner.
The reason the UK's manufacturing of AZ is outputting so much more than the EU's is that the manufacturing process began 3 months sooner so it is working better. In 3 months time the EU's should be doing better too.
And what more needs to be said?
Switzerland tried to end free movement, and was put back in its box because of its size, geographical position and lack of economic bargaining power. We tried and, err, did - it's termination is already a reality.
The truth is (already proven) that the UK is too big, ugly and smelly to be pushed around and dictated to like Greece or Switzerland. We have compromises and choices to make, sure, but they're ones of practical debate and discussion.
So it was a pointless and transparently dumb post, and got all the response it needed.
I have a 1969-piece Saturn V, an international space station and a Porsche racing car so far - each takes about 10-15 hours and costs around £100. Good for something relaxing to do indoors
Mr. Mark, disagree.
Leaving a existing arrangement is much more difficult than simply declining to enter into one. It's a divorce (or serious relationship breakup) versus turning down a date offer.
The difference is that the PPE scramble was zero-sum, it was scrambling for pre-existing PPE stocks that were immediately available.
The vaccine manufacturing was being primed nine months ahead of rollout. Investing sooner and with more cash meant more output available sooner which was not the case with the PPE.
Indeed investing in PPE manufacturing meant that nine months after the initial PPE scramble (sooner even) there was no shortage in PPE. The manufacturing investment had resolved the shortages. That is what should have been done with vaccines.
Yes, exceptionally nerdy but this is pb.com and none of us were in the cool gang at school.
And the fact you didn't spend the 2 seconds it required me to find that fact says a lot about both this argument and your other posts as it's now highly possible that you won't have done basic fact checks there either.
Centralisation isn't a bad thing in itself. Centralisation without accountability is. If you want centralised powers like for example Guy Verhofstadt does and you want those powers democratically accounted for, then that is an entirely logical and reasonable ambition.
- launched a single currency, then seen it nearly fall apart
- implemented the European Constitution, badly disguised as an intergovernmental treaty to avoid democracy
- begun a European foreign policy
- increased its budget
- gained more and more say over dozens of policy areas, and given back only I think the ability to set daylight savings time to its member states
- set up EU Border Guards
- passed the GDPR
- etc etc etc.
It is a remorseless accretion of power, and a fully federal EU is the logical outcome.
I may be misremembering.
If the virus is suppressed anywhere by anyone that's good for us because it reduces the pool of infected/infectable people, and therefore the ability for the virus to persist and mutate, and also allows a more localised easing of restrictions and lockdowns, thus in aggregate helping the global economy grow.
Also, everyone recognises that almost everyone everywhere will ultimately need the vacinnation so it will become a complete sum game - the only question is when and who's a few months ahead of the others in the race at various points.
I think on balance that national competition within the complete sum game is probably healthy because notwithstanding the embarrassment it spurs everyone else to be better.
Instead I believe its gone from saying all states must have daylight savings time (despite some not wanting it) to saying that all states must not have daylight savings time (despite some still wanting it).
https://twitter.com/DPhinnemore/status/1361573682263506948?s=20
Personally my two go-to mood lifters are intense exercise (run/circuits etc.) or doing something repetitive whilst listening to music.
You might say that if you could say our domestic regulatory regime was being designed entirely now and in future to maintain equivalence with the EU, and avoid provocation of them.
I don't see any signs of that. I've seen Andrew Bailey say it's not worth it, and the City should recalibrate to more global markets, and suggestions from central Government that a slew of corresponding reform is coming later this year too - which the EU wants to wait for, before presumably then saying no.
The way some Brexiters carry on you'd think the EU bigwigs had muscled in on the whole exercise and then made a hash of it, rather than having it dropped upon them by national governments when they started to fall out.
The EU should let the Irish Republic lead this.
They won't.
I think..
Which underlines the importance of fast action by governments at the start.
The thing about pandemics is that the benefits of effective vaccines so far outweigh the costs that some inefficiencies and duplications of effort matter far less than getting fast results.
The fundamental reason why I dislike nationalism so much is because it attempts to drive change from division, negativity and blind prejudice. This is why Brexit and Scottish separatism are peas in the same negative hate filled pod. Irrespective of the success of the vaccine rollout (which I think we would have done independently anyway had we still been in EU) , on balance Brexit has been a foreign policy disaster for the UK, and the trading outcome even worse. The latter will improve as people who run businesses look for what small silver linings we can find. The former will require a change of the clown that is current PM
Ursula is like Nicola Stugeon a superb communicator but has a much more attractive feminine presence.
And for those voters who like politicians to be multi-lingual and who have been parents Ursula has a much better personal CV than many recent female leaders like May,Merkel and Sturgeon who have never worked abroad and however politically incorrect no experience of parenthood.For millions of voters being a parent is the most important thing in their lives.And there will be sophisticated voters who regard that to be success working in a foreign country is a signal of talent.The British Establishment is full of people in authority whose 'success' seems to be based on being well connected yes men/women.
British soccer is full of reputations based entirely on working in Britain .Most UK soccer managers were overrated as Wenger,Klopp,Pep etc have exposed whilst there have been few genuinely world class UK players.
If they had proved themselves abroad then it might be a different story
Everybody makes mistakes.Politics is a harsh business where reputations are based not on how many good decisions one makes but the luck factor with a handful of big decisions.In some cases as with Tony Blair only 1 decision - a bad one The Iraq War .Or vice versa Churchill a good one as regards opposing appeasement
I'm a OO man myself, even though the scaling is strictly speaking not entirely accurate.
Only trouble seems to be that they aren't written down until Scandinavia (plus Iceland) was Christian so there's an element of 'these are only stories of course'. According to the lecturer there's also an element of the 'writer down' being highly educated and introducing stuff about them being descended from Troy and suchlike. A bit like the legend of Brutus of Troy becoming a King of the Britons.
Allowing software to be used as capital isn't a great idea (I suspect it's there to allow a hole to be cheaply papered over but it isn't actually sane on any other grounds).
As a way to bring out the 40-year-old 14-year-old in someone, the huge modern Lego kits really take some beating.
The Apollo rocket is a metre long, took a couple of days to build and gave a massive sense of achievement when completed.
And it doesn’t involve watching TV, drinking, arguing with people online or annoying the neighbours, unlike most other pandemic persuits!
My layout is (of course) set in Europe.
I've regressed back into habits I had when I was a student twenty years ago: I get up late, fart about*, dodge pointless meetings (except those client ones I cannot), pump out my work in just 3-4 hours a day and otherwise do my own thing. I don't look particularly hard for extra work to do, or to be "seen" at the right events doing and saying the right things, I'm mature enough in my career that no-one checks up on me anymore. And I just don't care anymore.
The 8-9 hour office day - together with 1.5-hour commute each way, each day, all suited and booted - isn't really something I can project myself back into easily anymore :-/
(*that includes posting on here)
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9263717/Stay-home-message-shown-door-Strict-lockdown-set-lifted-Boris-Johnson.html
Here’s a video of some people building it. You can see the size from the screenshot.
https://youtube.com/watch?v=UxtUrloLlm8
My tip? Spenny but worth it - get a VR set and knock yourself out on the exercise/activity games. I play "Thrill of the Fight" every day (6 x 3mins x2) and not only is it pretty good at replicating as much as possible the actual activity but all the good exercise/endorphin benefits.
You can pick up an Oculus headset for around £300 I think. Not cheap but well worth it for overall well-being and cheaper (I think?) than the entire Loeb Classics series.
You're the one who is thinking in a binary and simplistic manner too. The EU is not NATO, it is a shade of grey inbetween a supranational body and a nation state of its own. That grey is ever so gradually getting a deeper shade as more integration naturally evolves especially as a result of the Single Monetary Policy. If you honestly think the EU 20 to 30 years from now will be the same as it is now then it is you that is being simplistic and refusing to think, it isn't even the same as it was five years ago let alone ten.
It is evolving and transitioning and I wish it well in doing so but the end state must eventually include more democratic accountability - which will naturally drive forwards further centralisation as a result.
(Although, somewhat less sympathy for Belgium, who insisted that the EU get a better price and then boasted of having got that better price than the UK. Which it now appears a) caused months of extra delays across the whole EU and b) was a lie - we all pay effectively the same cost price.)
As the EU is now already in the top 3 economies in the world collectively alongside the US and China, has its own currency and is also starting to develop its own Foreign Policy and potentially its own army too who heads it is of major global importance, as is how they get the job.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Swiss_immigration_initiative
The negotiations didn't go anywhere, it ended with a very light national preference for Swiss citizens and free movement was then re-ratified in second vote last year.
The fact that you didn't spend the 2 seconds it required me to find the evidence to support the very obvious discussion we were having says a lot about not only this "killer point" but all the other "killer points" you try to make in your other posts too.
So in this respect it is even more of a unitary state than the United States or Australia, which allow their states to set DST.
Very sinister.
(Although ironically I'd be happy if we scrapped DST myself. Still that's a choice for us to make).
Totally shocked that it was already planned, and the debate was "garage loft" or "garden room". Chap is a tech startup type in Cambridge. Far more decadent than my Cornish Oysters. *
I still have a 1970s Hornby set in it's original packaging, that probably needs to be sold. Ditto a Zero One.
Personally I'm about to get into the garden a bit earlier this year.
* Cornish Octopuses today. Does anyone have any tips? Last time was shallow fried with dips.
That can still be quite fun, though. Particularly Bavarian/Swiss models.