My wife was on a work call with someone who has just returned to work after 3 weeks ill with Covid and is still feeling rough.
Age - around 20.
I'm not sure how surprising this is. I reckon the most ill I've felt was when I was 21. Whatever I picked up knocked me out for three weeks. Annoyingly it was in the run up to my finals at university.
Glandular fever? A traditional disease of the undergraduate. Totally pole-axed me when I was about 20. And came back for more
I had glandular fever when I was seven - the earliest case the throat specialist had ever seen. What I most remember is that I enjoyed the three weeks off school I got as a result.
You shouldn’t have snogged the babysitter then...
Is that what used to happen at your place when somebody got sick?
Explains a lot.
It’s how glandular fever is passed around secondary schools
It must be hugely reassuring for Sindy supporters to know that one of the major figures designing their post-independence economic future has been "working on a possible new banking and financial system for Scotland" - ie a whole new form of capitalism - "for two or three months".
It makes the grave gamble of Brexit look like buying one single Premium Bond.
What's even more funny about it is he then, in answer to someone quizzing him on his proposal, goes onto say that it would need to be "worked out by someone more knowledgeable than I".
Err, yep.
I love the idea that 4% interest on a £100,000 mortgage for 20 years means that you need to repay £104,000
Errr . . . why not just ban all interest as usury while you're at it?
Or have an independent Scotland adopt Sharia Law. Bingo! No interest....
Ha. Funnily enough, banks in Islamic countries still find many ways to take money from you. They just don’t use the word “interest”.
It's what banks do. It is their function.
It’s less painful if you think of it as providing a service for modest recompense. Rather like a lawyer.
Things don't get looser over time and then snap, they get tighter and then snap. Really sloppy thinking and editing. Sumption continues to be an embarrassment.
The dose reduced the symptomatic infection risk by 65 per cent in younger adults, and 64 per cent in over-80s.
Glorious news.
It's not glorious. I wish it were. It's good, with caveats.
What does it do against the new variants?
It's not that much of a caveat if it is the case that if the SA variant for example were to take hold it will not be for many months at least, possibly time to stock up on the other orders we have which may be more effective against it and allow time for development of specific strains to target it, and thus means that the tens of millions of vaccinations we have done will protect against the predominant strains for the short and medium term.
But this bastard virus spreads so fast, in its new incarnation, and can also reinfect people with prior history of infection, I therefore fear you are being a bit blase.
Yet, you could be right. We may have bought enough time to drive down UK cases, keep out new variants, and thus secure a Covid-free UK. Or at least something like it: akin to Thailand, say (but with their allied economic pain of strict border quarantine)
The more effective the vaccines are, the better the case for pulling up the drawbridge. Any resultant harm will pale into insignificance compared with that of endless lockdown, or a constant cycle of regular lockdowns.
Besides anything else, the Government's two stated priorities have been 1. to stop the NHS keeling over and 2. to get children back into school. Imported SuperCovid could imperil the healthcare system and result in children being sent home and locked away again.
Set against that, we can learn to live without mass international travel for a while.
If the vaccines are very effective, travel for the vaccinated is fine.
There's always a risk that they will bring something unpleasant in, maybe something not related to this virus at all, as there's a risk that travellers will be rapists or murderers, but life is about risk I'm afraid.
There are a lot of gradiations of risk here.
Someone who's had one shot of AstraZeneca last week, and is travelling from Cape Town... well... that's not a great risk. And one would hope the full 14 days was applied.
By contrast (and choosing the absolute opposite), someone travelling from Hong Kong, with two shots of Moderna, the last of which was a month ago, is essentially risk free. Now, should you make them take a test? Yes. But if they've come straight from HK, and had the vaccine, and no-one else on the plane tested positive... well, it's pretty low likelihood. (The chance they carry a transmissable amount of the virus is perhaps 1/5000th of a random individual in the UK.)
And then there are lots of in-between cases. I've had one shot of Moderna (and hope to have my second in the next two weeks). But that's not two shots. And California (while improving) is not CV19 free. I probably shouldn't be allowed in without quarantine. Do I need quite the same quarantine as that chap from Cape Town? Probably not, but for safety's sake, something is necessary.
The dose reduced the symptomatic infection risk by 65 per cent in younger adults, and 64 per cent in over-80s.
Glorious news.
It's not glorious. I wish it were. It's good, with caveats.
What does it do against the new variants?
It's not that much of a caveat if it is the case that if the SA variant for example were to take hold it will not be for many months at least, possibly time to stock up on the other orders we have which may be more effective against it and allow time for development of specific strains to target it, and thus means that the tens of millions of vaccinations we have done will protect against the predominant strains for the short and medium term.
But this bastard virus spreads so fast, in its new incarnation, and can also reinfect people with prior history of infection, I therefore fear you are being a bit blase.
Yet, you could be right. We may have bought enough time to drive down UK cases, keep out new variants, and thus secure a Covid-free UK. Or at least something like it: akin to Thailand, say (but with their allied economic pain of strict border quarantine)
The more effective the vaccines are, the better the case for pulling up the drawbridge. Any resultant harm will pale into insignificance compared with that of endless lockdown, or a constant cycle of regular lockdowns.
Besides anything else, the Government's two stated priorities have been 1. to stop the NHS keeling over and 2. to get children back into school. Imported SuperCovid could imperil the healthcare system and result in children being sent home and locked away again.
Set against that, we can learn to live without mass international travel for a while.
If the vaccines are very effective, travel for the vaccinated is fine.
There's always a risk that they will bring something unpleasant in, maybe something not related to this virus at all, as there's a risk that travellers will be rapists or murderers, but life is about risk I'm afraid.
There are a lot of gradiations of risk here.
Someone who's had one shot of AstraZeneca last week, and is travelling from Cape Town... well... that's not a great risk. And one would hope the full 14 days was applied.
By contrast (and choosing the absolute opposite), someone travelling from Hong Kong, with two shots of Moderna, the last of which was a month ago, is essentially risk free. Now, should you make them take a test? Yes. But if they've come straight from HK, and had the vaccine, and no-one else on the plane tested positive... well, it's pretty low likelihood. (The chance they carry a transmissable amount of the virus is perhaps 1/5000th of a random individual in the UK.)
And then there are lots of in-between cases. I've had one shot of Moderna (and hope to have my second in the next two weeks). But that's not two shots. And California (while improving) is not CV19 free. I probably shouldn't be allowed in without quarantine. Do I need quite the same quarantine as that chap from Cape Town? Probably not, but for safety's sake, something is necessary.
The dose reduced the symptomatic infection risk by 65 per cent in younger adults, and 64 per cent in over-80s.
Glorious news.
It's not glorious. I wish it were. It's good, with caveats.
What does it do against the new variants?
It's not that much of a caveat if it is the case that if the SA variant for example were to take hold it will not be for many months at least, possibly time to stock up on the other orders we have which may be more effective against it and allow time for development of specific strains to target it, and thus means that the tens of millions of vaccinations we have done will protect against the predominant strains for the short and medium term.
But this bastard virus spreads so fast, in its new incarnation, and can also reinfect people with prior history of infection, I therefore fear you are being a bit blase.
Yet, you could be right. We may have bought enough time to drive down UK cases, keep out new variants, and thus secure a Covid-free UK. Or at least something like it: akin to Thailand, say (but with their allied economic pain of strict border quarantine)
The more effective the vaccines are, the better the case for pulling up the drawbridge. Any resultant harm will pale into insignificance compared with that of endless lockdown, or a constant cycle of regular lockdowns.
Besides anything else, the Government's two stated priorities have been 1. to stop the NHS keeling over and 2. to get children back into school. Imported SuperCovid could imperil the healthcare system and result in children being sent home and locked away again.
Set against that, we can learn to live without mass international travel for a while.
If the vaccines are very effective, travel for the vaccinated is fine.
There's always a risk that they will bring something unpleasant in, maybe something not related to this virus at all, as there's a risk that travellers will be rapists or murderers, but life is about risk I'm afraid.
There are a lot of gradiations of risk here.
Someone who's had one shot of AstraZeneca last week, and is travelling from Cape Town... well... that's not a great risk. And one would hope the full 14 days was applied.
By contrast (and choosing the absolute opposite), someone travelling from Hong Kong, with two shots of Moderna, the last of which was a month ago, is essentially risk free. Now, should you make them take a test? Yes. But if they've come straight from HK, and had the vaccine, and no-one else on the plane tested positive... well, it's pretty low likelihood. (The chance they carry a transmissable amount of the virus is perhaps 1/5000th of a random individual in the UK.)
And then there are lots of in-between cases. I've had one shot of Moderna (and hope to have my second in the next two weeks). But that's not two shots. And California (while improving) is not CV19 free. I probably shouldn't be allowed in without quarantine. Do I need quite the same quarantine as that chap from Cape Town? Probably not, but for safety's sake, something is necessary.
Blimey how did you get a shot so fast ?
Oh, I self identify as an 84 year old diabetic, so it was pretty easy.
The dose reduced the symptomatic infection risk by 65 per cent in younger adults, and 64 per cent in over-80s.
Glorious news.
It's not glorious. I wish it were. It's good, with caveats.
What does it do against the new variants?
It's not that much of a caveat if it is the case that if the SA variant for example were to take hold it will not be for many months at least, possibly time to stock up on the other orders we have which may be more effective against it and allow time for development of specific strains to target it, and thus means that the tens of millions of vaccinations we have done will protect against the predominant strains for the short and medium term.
But this bastard virus spreads so fast, in its new incarnation, and can also reinfect people with prior history of infection, I therefore fear you are being a bit blase.
Yet, you could be right. We may have bought enough time to drive down UK cases, keep out new variants, and thus secure a Covid-free UK. Or at least something like it: akin to Thailand, say (but with their allied economic pain of strict border quarantine)
The more effective the vaccines are, the better the case for pulling up the drawbridge. Any resultant harm will pale into insignificance compared with that of endless lockdown, or a constant cycle of regular lockdowns.
Besides anything else, the Government's two stated priorities have been 1. to stop the NHS keeling over and 2. to get children back into school. Imported SuperCovid could imperil the healthcare system and result in children being sent home and locked away again.
Set against that, we can learn to live without mass international travel for a while.
If the vaccines are very effective, travel for the vaccinated is fine.
There's always a risk that they will bring something unpleasant in, maybe something not related to this virus at all, as there's a risk that travellers will be rapists or murderers, but life is about risk I'm afraid.
There are a lot of gradiations of risk here.
Someone who's had one shot of AstraZeneca last week, and is travelling from Cape Town... well... that's not a great risk. And one would hope the full 14 days was applied.
By contrast (and choosing the absolute opposite), someone travelling from Hong Kong, with two shots of Moderna, the last of which was a month ago, is essentially risk free. Now, should you make them take a test? Yes. But if they've come straight from HK, and had the vaccine, and no-one else on the plane tested positive... well, it's pretty low likelihood. (The chance they carry a transmissable amount of the virus is perhaps 1/5000th of a random individual in the UK.)
And then there are lots of in-between cases. I've had one shot of Moderna (and hope to have my second in the next two weeks). But that's not two shots. And California (while improving) is not CV19 free. I probably shouldn't be allowed in without quarantine. Do I need quite the same quarantine as that chap from Cape Town? Probably not, but for safety's sake, something is necessary.
Maybe, but that implies a quarantine system tailored to individual circumstances, which would be far to complicated to administer, would need to change constantly and would doubtless offer lots of loopholes. So I don't think it's right for a machine as incompetent and inflexible as our border people.
It must be hugely reassuring for Sindy supporters to know that one of the major figures designing their post-independence economic future has been "working on a possible new banking and financial system for Scotland" - ie a whole new form of capitalism - "for two or three months".
It makes the grave gamble of Brexit look like buying one single Premium Bond.
What's even more funny about it is he then, in answer to someone quizzing him on his proposal, goes onto say that it would need to be "worked out by someone more knowledgeable than I".
Err, yep.
I love the idea that 4% interest on a £100,000 mortgage for 20 years means that you need to repay £104,000
Errr . . . why not just ban all interest as usury while you're at it?
Or have an independent Scotland adopt Sharia Law. Bingo! No interest....
Ha. Funnily enough, banks in Islamic countries still find many ways to take money from you. They just don’t use the word “interest”.
It's what banks do. It is their function.
It’s less painful if you think of it as providing a service for modest recompense. Rather like a lawyer.
Politico.com - Trump was quite displeased with his impeachment defense team The former president was frustrated with the meandering arguments. Some close to his defense team quit watching.
For former President Donald Trump, the opening day of his second impeachment trial did not go as planned or to his liking.
Cocooned at his Mar-a-Lago estate, Trump watched as his defense attorneys responded to an emotional presentation by House impeachment managers with a series of dry, technical and at times meandering arguments about due process and the constitutionality of the proceedings. As they droned on, he grew increasingly frustrated with the sharp contrast between their muted response and the prosecution’s opening salvo, according to two people familiar with his thinking.
"President Trump was not happy with the performance of his legal team in action,” said one of the people familiar with his thinking.
It didn’t help that his lead attorney, former Pennsylvania prosecutor Bruce Castor, name-checked Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.), who just days ago slammed his state party for their “weird worship” of Trump. Castor also referred to Trump as the “former president,” conceding that he had in fact lost the 2020 election when he was removed by “smart” voters last November. . . .
At one point during Castor’s remarks, the right-wing network Newsmax––which Trump had been watching throughout the day, according to a person familiar with his viewing habits––cut away to a segment featuring the ex-president’s former impeachment attorney Alan Dershowitz.
“I have no idea what he is doing,” Dershowitz said of Castor, shaking his head dismissively. “The American people are entitled to an argument… but this, just, after all kinds of very strong presentations on the part of the House managers… it does not appear to me to be effective advocacy.”
Some of which I commented on when I was watching the speech live.
The weirdest bit was when he cited the failure of the coup and the successful transfer of power to the new president as evidence that the system was working and no impeachment was necessary.
Trump won’t have enjoyed watching his lawyer concede on his behalf.
And from a criminal point of view, since when was an incompetent attempt at a crime ever a defence?
It’s worse than that. It’s not simple interest he’s suggesting but a flat charge. (Ie a £100k 20 year mortgage at 4% would result in £104k being repaid).
The result is that you would have lots of 364 day mortgages and people would have the hassle and cost of remortgaging their house every year. And application fees would be huge.
I suppose the other alternative is that rather than interest being annualised it would just be presented as the final repayment figure (which is already quoted as an estimate or at least, it was on my mortgage).
But that figure might be somewhat off-putting, especially given the likely deficit and consequent annual interest rates of an independent Scotland.
Yes although contractually that could be nasty if it became the repayment figure not an annual charge
I can see lots of ways that it could be nasty. I’m just amused by the sheer nuttiness of the idea that 4% interest on a £100,000 loan means after twenty years you would have repaid £104,000.
I bet his mortgage broker had fun in their meetings screwing him to the highest interest rate possible without him realising.
Politico.com - Trump was quite displeased with his impeachment defense team The former president was frustrated with the meandering arguments. Some close to his defense team quit watching.
For former President Donald Trump, the opening day of his second impeachment trial did not go as planned or to his liking.
Cocooned at his Mar-a-Lago estate, Trump watched as his defense attorneys responded to an emotional presentation by House impeachment managers with a series of dry, technical and at times meandering arguments about due process and the constitutionality of the proceedings. As they droned on, he grew increasingly frustrated with the sharp contrast between their muted response and the prosecution’s opening salvo, according to two people familiar with his thinking.
"President Trump was not happy with the performance of his legal team in action,” said one of the people familiar with his thinking.
It didn’t help that his lead attorney, former Pennsylvania prosecutor Bruce Castor, name-checked Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.), who just days ago slammed his state party for their “weird worship” of Trump. Castor also referred to Trump as the “former president,” conceding that he had in fact lost the 2020 election when he was removed by “smart” voters last November. . . .
At one point during Castor’s remarks, the right-wing network Newsmax––which Trump had been watching throughout the day, according to a person familiar with his viewing habits––cut away to a segment featuring the ex-president’s former impeachment attorney Alan Dershowitz.
“I have no idea what he is doing,” Dershowitz said of Castor, shaking his head dismissively. “The American people are entitled to an argument… but this, just, after all kinds of very strong presentations on the part of the House managers… it does not appear to me to be effective advocacy.”
Some of which I commented on when I was watching the speech live.
The weirdest bit was when he cited the failure of the coup and the successful transfer of power to the new president as evidence that the system was working and no impeachment was necessary.
Trump won’t have enjoyed watching his lawyer concede on his behalf.
And from a criminal point of view, since when was an incompetent attempt at a crime ever a defence?
It must be hugely reassuring for Sindy supporters to know that one of the major figures designing their post-independence economic future has been "working on a possible new banking and financial system for Scotland" - ie a whole new form of capitalism - "for two or three months".
It makes the grave gamble of Brexit look like buying one single Premium Bond.
What's even more funny about it is he then, in answer to someone quizzing him on his proposal, goes onto say that it would need to be "worked out by someone more knowledgeable than I".
Err, yep.
I love the idea that 4% interest on a £100,000 mortgage for 20 years means that you need to repay £104,000
Errr . . . why not just ban all interest as usury while you're at it?
Or have an independent Scotland adopt Sharia Law. Bingo! No interest....
Ha. Funnily enough, banks in Islamic countries still find many ways to take money from you. They just don’t use the word “interest”.
It's what banks do. It is their function.
It’s less painful if you think of it as providing a service for modest recompense. Rather like a lawyer.
I am doing a legal aid case today for my sins. If the rates were any lower I would be paying them.
But the authors of the original piece really should not be allowed to advise a tuck shop.
The dose reduced the symptomatic infection risk by 65 per cent in younger adults, and 64 per cent in over-80s.
Glorious news.
It's not glorious. I wish it were. It's good, with caveats.
What does it do against the new variants?
It's not that much of a caveat if it is the case that if the SA variant for example were to take hold it will not be for many months at least, possibly time to stock up on the other orders we have which may be more effective against it and allow time for development of specific strains to target it, and thus means that the tens of millions of vaccinations we have done will protect against the predominant strains for the short and medium term.
But this bastard virus spreads so fast, in its new incarnation, and can also reinfect people with prior history of infection, I therefore fear you are being a bit blase.
Yet, you could be right. We may have bought enough time to drive down UK cases, keep out new variants, and thus secure a Covid-free UK. Or at least something like it: akin to Thailand, say (but with their allied economic pain of strict border quarantine)
The more effective the vaccines are, the better the case for pulling up the drawbridge. Any resultant harm will pale into insignificance compared with that of endless lockdown, or a constant cycle of regular lockdowns.
Besides anything else, the Government's two stated priorities have been 1. to stop the NHS keeling over and 2. to get children back into school. Imported SuperCovid could imperil the healthcare system and result in children being sent home and locked away again.
Set against that, we can learn to live without mass international travel for a while.
If the vaccines are very effective, travel for the vaccinated is fine.
There's always a risk that they will bring something unpleasant in, maybe something not related to this virus at all, as there's a risk that travellers will be rapists or murderers, but life is about risk I'm afraid.
There are a lot of gradiations of risk here.
Someone who's had one shot of AstraZeneca last week, and is travelling from Cape Town... well... that's not a great risk. And one would hope the full 14 days was applied.
By contrast (and choosing the absolute opposite), someone travelling from Hong Kong, with two shots of Moderna, the last of which was a month ago, is essentially risk free. Now, should you make them take a test? Yes. But if they've come straight from HK, and had the vaccine, and no-one else on the plane tested positive... well, it's pretty low likelihood. (The chance they carry a transmissable amount of the virus is perhaps 1/5000th of a random individual in the UK.)
And then there are lots of in-between cases. I've had one shot of Moderna (and hope to have my second in the next two weeks). But that's not two shots. And California (while improving) is not CV19 free. I probably shouldn't be allowed in without quarantine. Do I need quite the same quarantine as that chap from Cape Town? Probably not, but for safety's sake, something is necessary.
Maybe, but that implies a quarantine system tailored to individual circumstances, which would be far to complicated to administer, would need to change constantly and would doubtless offer lots of loopholes. So I don't think it's right for a machine as incompetent and inflexible as our border people.
That's an excellent point.
But I don't think you need to make it complicated. Hawaii, alone of the US States, has remained basically CV19 free with nothing more required than a PCR test in the 48 hours prior to departure and an antitgen test on arrival. (And, I believe, if anyone from the plane tests positive on arrival, then you're all quarantined.)
That's been sufficient - despite a lot of travel between the islands and the lower 48 and Asia - to keep CV19 at incredibly low levels.
The dose reduced the symptomatic infection risk by 65 per cent in younger adults, and 64 per cent in over-80s.
Glorious news.
It's not glorious. I wish it were. It's good, with caveats.
What does it do against the new variants?
It's not that much of a caveat if it is the case that if the SA variant for example were to take hold it will not be for many months at least, possibly time to stock up on the other orders we have which may be more effective against it and allow time for development of specific strains to target it, and thus means that the tens of millions of vaccinations we have done will protect against the predominant strains for the short and medium term.
But this bastard virus spreads so fast, in its new incarnation, and can also reinfect people with prior history of infection, I therefore fear you are being a bit blase.
Yet, you could be right. We may have bought enough time to drive down UK cases, keep out new variants, and thus secure a Covid-free UK. Or at least something like it: akin to Thailand, say (but with their allied economic pain of strict border quarantine)
The more effective the vaccines are, the better the case for pulling up the drawbridge. Any resultant harm will pale into insignificance compared with that of endless lockdown, or a constant cycle of regular lockdowns.
Besides anything else, the Government's two stated priorities have been 1. to stop the NHS keeling over and 2. to get children back into school. Imported SuperCovid could imperil the healthcare system and result in children being sent home and locked away again.
Set against that, we can learn to live without mass international travel for a while.
If the vaccines are very effective, travel for the vaccinated is fine.
There's always a risk that they will bring something unpleasant in, maybe something not related to this virus at all, as there's a risk that travellers will be rapists or murderers, but life is about risk I'm afraid.
There are a lot of gradiations of risk here.
Someone who's had one shot of AstraZeneca last week, and is travelling from Cape Town... well... that's not a great risk. And one would hope the full 14 days was applied.
By contrast (and choosing the absolute opposite), someone travelling from Hong Kong, with two shots of Moderna, the last of which was a month ago, is essentially risk free. Now, should you make them take a test? Yes. But if they've come straight from HK, and had the vaccine, and no-one else on the plane tested positive... well, it's pretty low likelihood. (The chance they carry a transmissable amount of the virus is perhaps 1/5000th of a random individual in the UK.)
And then there are lots of in-between cases. I've had one shot of Moderna (and hope to have my second in the next two weeks). But that's not two shots. And California (while improving) is not CV19 free. I probably shouldn't be allowed in without quarantine. Do I need quite the same quarantine as that chap from Cape Town? Probably not, but for safety's sake, something is necessary.
Maybe, but that implies a quarantine system tailored to individual circumstances, which would be far to complicated to administer, would need to change constantly and would doubtless offer lots of loopholes. So I don't think it's right for a machine as incompetent and inflexible as our border people.
That's an excellent point.
But I don't think you need to make it complicated. Hawaii, alone of the US States, has remained basically CV19 free with nothing more required than a PCR test in the 48 hours prior to departure and an antitgen test on arrival. (And, I believe, if anyone from the plane tests positive on arrival, then you're all quarantined.)
That's been sufficient - despite a lot of travel between the islands and the lower 48 and Asia - to keep CV19 at incredibly low levels.
Sounds good to me, although it is doubtless supplemented with the federal policy of banning travel from Europe, China and Brazil to non-US citizens.
I have been staying in Edinburgh for the last couple of days because of court hearings (I am really not comfortable trying to do substantive hearings from home). We've had some snow but last night Edinburgh has got plastered.
My home has already had more than a foot of snow, probably the most for at least 10 years. With the Covid vaccination program ramping up this seems somewhat suboptimal.
Gaia is really working at this. Snowflakes= T cells?
You've been pointing this out for a while, for which much thanks. We are being told that the SA variant is much more infectious. I have a real problem with reconciling that with a chart like that.
I have been staying in Edinburgh for the last couple of days because of court hearings (I am really not comfortable trying to do substantive hearings from home). We've had some snow but last night Edinburgh has got plastered.
I have been staying in Edinburgh for the last couple of days because of court hearings (I am really not comfortable trying to do substantive hearings from home). We've had some snow but last night Edinburgh has got plastered.
My home has already had more than a foot of snow, probably the most for at least 10 years. With the Covid vaccination program ramping up this seems somewhat suboptimal.
Gaia is really working at this. Snowflakes= T cells?
Remember that Independent article about snow being a memory in Britain soon?
The dose reduced the symptomatic infection risk by 65 per cent in younger adults, and 64 per cent in over-80s.
Glorious news.
It's not glorious. I wish it were. It's good, with caveats.
What does it do against the new variants?
It's not that much of a caveat if it is the case that if the SA variant for example were to take hold it will not be for many months at least, possibly time to stock up on the other orders we have which may be more effective against it and allow time for development of specific strains to target it, and thus means that the tens of millions of vaccinations we have done will protect against the predominant strains for the short and medium term.
But this bastard virus spreads so fast, in its new incarnation, and can also reinfect people with prior history of infection, I therefore fear you are being a bit blase.
Yet, you could be right. We may have bought enough time to drive down UK cases, keep out new variants, and thus secure a Covid-free UK. Or at least something like it: akin to Thailand, say (but with their allied economic pain of strict border quarantine)
The more effective the vaccines are, the better the case for pulling up the drawbridge. Any resultant harm will pale into insignificance compared with that of endless lockdown, or a constant cycle of regular lockdowns.
Besides anything else, the Government's two stated priorities have been 1. to stop the NHS keeling over and 2. to get children back into school. Imported SuperCovid could imperil the healthcare system and result in children being sent home and locked away again.
Set against that, we can learn to live without mass international travel for a while.
If the vaccines are very effective, travel for the vaccinated is fine.
There's always a risk that they will bring something unpleasant in, maybe something not related to this virus at all, as there's a risk that travellers will be rapists or murderers, but life is about risk I'm afraid.
There are a lot of gradiations of risk here.
Someone who's had one shot of AstraZeneca last week, and is travelling from Cape Town... well... that's not a great risk. And one would hope the full 14 days was applied.
By contrast (and choosing the absolute opposite), someone travelling from Hong Kong, with two shots of Moderna, the last of which was a month ago, is essentially risk free. Now, should you make them take a test? Yes. But if they've come straight from HK, and had the vaccine, and no-one else on the plane tested positive... well, it's pretty low likelihood. (The chance they carry a transmissable amount of the virus is perhaps 1/5000th of a random individual in the UK.)
And then there are lots of in-between cases. I've had one shot of Moderna (and hope to have my second in the next two weeks). But that's not two shots. And California (while improving) is not CV19 free. I probably shouldn't be allowed in without quarantine. Do I need quite the same quarantine as that chap from Cape Town? Probably not, but for safety's sake, something is necessary.
Maybe, but that implies a quarantine system tailored to individual circumstances, which would be far to complicated to administer, would need to change constantly and would doubtless offer lots of loopholes. So I don't think it's right for a machine as incompetent and inflexible as our border people.
That's an excellent point.
But I don't think you need to make it complicated. Hawaii, alone of the US States, has remained basically CV19 free with nothing more required than a PCR test in the 48 hours prior to departure and an antitgen test on arrival. (And, I believe, if anyone from the plane tests positive on arrival, then you're all quarantined.)
That's been sufficient - despite a lot of travel between the islands and the lower 48 and Asia - to keep CV19 at incredibly low levels.
Sounds good to me, although it is doubtless supplemented with the federal policy of banning travel from Europe, China and Brazil to non-US citizens.
Given that Hawaii doesn't have direct travel links to Europe, and that CV19 prevalence is certainly higher in the US that in most of those places, I'm not sure it makes much of a difference.
I guess my point is a simple one.
Let's say you have 1,000 domestic cases of CV19. If you import 100 cases a day from abroad, then you have a major problem.
On the other hand, if you import one case a day, then you don't. Compared to the indigenous CV19 cases, the imported ones are a rounding error.
If you can cut the number of imported cases by 99% at minimal cost (and Hawaii is a massively tourism driven economy), then that's a good call. It's certainly a better call (for them) than cutting it by 100% and not having a tourism industry.
Now, the UK is different. It has other industries than tourism. (It also has truckers coming from across Europe that are not going to be tested in the same way, but that's another story.) And there is the question of new variants which argue for more caution.
But I do think the spoils will go to those who open up first post CV19. Where is welcoming to those seeking to invest or travel? Us business folk are simple people.
I have been staying in Edinburgh for the last couple of days because of court hearings (I am really not comfortable trying to do substantive hearings from home). We've had some snow but last night Edinburgh has got plastered.
Sister and brother-in -law [65 & 68] without health issues both getting jabbed today in Sunderland. Meanwhile as cases fall a little in Spain no doubt we'll open up like crazy for Easter followed by wave 4 and again in July...... & no jabs in sight for the under 80s! Thank Christ it's sunny and warm!
Politico.com - Trump was quite displeased with his impeachment defense team The former president was frustrated with the meandering arguments. Some close to his defense team quit watching.
For former President Donald Trump, the opening day of his second impeachment trial did not go as planned or to his liking.
Cocooned at his Mar-a-Lago estate, Trump watched as his defense attorneys responded to an emotional presentation by House impeachment managers with a series of dry, technical and at times meandering arguments about due process and the constitutionality of the proceedings. As they droned on, he grew increasingly frustrated with the sharp contrast between their muted response and the prosecution’s opening salvo, according to two people familiar with his thinking.
"President Trump was not happy with the performance of his legal team in action,” said one of the people familiar with his thinking.
It didn’t help that his lead attorney, former Pennsylvania prosecutor Bruce Castor, name-checked Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.), who just days ago slammed his state party for their “weird worship” of Trump. Castor also referred to Trump as the “former president,” conceding that he had in fact lost the 2020 election when he was removed by “smart” voters last November. . . .
At one point during Castor’s remarks, the right-wing network Newsmax––which Trump had been watching throughout the day, according to a person familiar with his viewing habits––cut away to a segment featuring the ex-president’s former impeachment attorney Alan Dershowitz.
“I have no idea what he is doing,” Dershowitz said of Castor, shaking his head dismissively. “The American people are entitled to an argument… but this, just, after all kinds of very strong presentations on the part of the House managers… it does not appear to me to be effective advocacy.”
Some of which I commented on when I was watching the speech live.
The weirdest bit was when he cited the failure of the coup and the successful transfer of power to the new president as evidence that the system was working and no impeachment was necessary.
Trump won’t have enjoyed watching his lawyer concede on his behalf.
And from a criminal point of view, since when was an incompetent attempt at a crime ever a defence?
I have been staying in Edinburgh for the last couple of days because of court hearings (I am really not comfortable trying to do substantive hearings from home). We've had some snow but last night Edinburgh has got plastered.
My home has already had more than a foot of snow, probably the most for at least 10 years. With the Covid vaccination program ramping up this seems somewhat suboptimal.
Gaia is really working at this. Snowflakes= T cells?
Remember that Independent article about snow being a memory in Britain soon?
But this used to happen every year, not every decade.
You've been pointing this out for a while, for which much thanks. We are being told that the SA variant is much more infectious. I have a real problem with reconciling that with a chart like that.
Based on this chart the SA variant is the one you want
I have been staying in Edinburgh for the last couple of days because of court hearings (I am really not comfortable trying to do substantive hearings from home). We've had some snow but last night Edinburgh has got plastered.
My home has already had more than a foot of snow, probably the most for at least 10 years. With the Covid vaccination program ramping up this seems somewhat suboptimal.
Gaia is really working at this. Snowflakes= T cells?
Remember that Independent article about snow being a memory in Britain soon?
Implied was that Scotland will still get snow, but it will be a memory that Scotland was in Britain....
Sister and brother-in -law [65 & 68] without health issues both getting jabbed today in Sunderland. Meanwhile as cases fall a little in Spain no doubt we'll open up like crazy for Easter followed by wave 4 and again in July...... & no jabs in sight for the under 80s! Thank Christ it's sunny and warm!
Many surgeries have now moved on to the over 65s, I think just about all the over 70s have been offered a jab now.
You've been pointing this out for a while, for which much thanks. We are being told that the SA variant is much more infectious. I have a real problem with reconciling that with a chart like that.
Based on this chart the SA variant is the one you want
Globally reported cases have fallen just over 40% in a month. It’s deaths which are the chart to watch, less easy to fiddle the figures, but even those appeared to have peaked almost precisely 2 weeks after reported cases
I have been staying in Edinburgh for the last couple of days because of court hearings (I am really not comfortable trying to do substantive hearings from home). We've had some snow but last night Edinburgh has got plastered.
My home has already had more than a foot of snow, probably the most for at least 10 years. With the Covid vaccination program ramping up this seems somewhat suboptimal.
Gaia is really working at this. Snowflakes= T cells?
Remember that Independent article about snow being a memory in Britain soon?
But this used to happen every year, not every decade.
It happened a little more often but not every year - and I grew up in NE England. In London in the 80s and 90s snow was not common.
Politico.com - Trump was quite displeased with his impeachment defense team The former president was frustrated with the meandering arguments. Some close to his defense team quit watching.
For former President Donald Trump, the opening day of his second impeachment trial did not go as planned or to his liking.
Cocooned at his Mar-a-Lago estate, Trump watched as his defense attorneys responded to an emotional presentation by House impeachment managers with a series of dry, technical and at times meandering arguments about due process and the constitutionality of the proceedings. As they droned on, he grew increasingly frustrated with the sharp contrast between their muted response and the prosecution’s opening salvo, according to two people familiar with his thinking.
"President Trump was not happy with the performance of his legal team in action,” said one of the people familiar with his thinking.
It didn’t help that his lead attorney, former Pennsylvania prosecutor Bruce Castor, name-checked Sen. Ben Sasse (R-Neb.), who just days ago slammed his state party for their “weird worship” of Trump. Castor also referred to Trump as the “former president,” conceding that he had in fact lost the 2020 election when he was removed by “smart” voters last November. . . .
At one point during Castor’s remarks, the right-wing network Newsmax––which Trump had been watching throughout the day, according to a person familiar with his viewing habits––cut away to a segment featuring the ex-president’s former impeachment attorney Alan Dershowitz.
“I have no idea what he is doing,” Dershowitz said of Castor, shaking his head dismissively. “The American people are entitled to an argument… but this, just, after all kinds of very strong presentations on the part of the House managers… it does not appear to me to be effective advocacy.”
Some of which I commented on when I was watching the speech live.
The weirdest bit was when he cited the failure of the coup and the successful transfer of power to the new president as evidence that the system was working and no impeachment was necessary.
Trump won’t have enjoyed watching his lawyer concede on his behalf.
And from a criminal point of view, since when was an incompetent attempt at a crime ever a defence?
Forget the cat guy - is Jerry L Phillips alive? He shows no emotion at the talking cat. I do worry for him.
Why is the judge sitting in front of a satanic shrine?
And is whoever recorded it and released that recording now in contempt of court?
So much to know....
Satanic shrines are de regure for judges. I am sure that the 3 new judges announced for the Court of Session this week have already had them issued although only in 2 of the cases was this strictly necessary.
I have been staying in Edinburgh for the last couple of days because of court hearings (I am really not comfortable trying to do substantive hearings from home). We've had some snow but last night Edinburgh has got plastered.
My home has already had more than a foot of snow, probably the most for at least 10 years. With the Covid vaccination program ramping up this seems somewhat suboptimal.
Gaia is really working at this. Snowflakes= T cells?
Remember that Independent article about snow being a memory in Britain soon?
But this used to happen every year, not every decade.
It happened a little more often but not every year - and I grew up in NE England. In London in the 80s and 90s snow was not common.
I have been staying in Edinburgh for the last couple of days because of court hearings (I am really not comfortable trying to do substantive hearings from home). We've had some snow but last night Edinburgh has got plastered.
My home has already had more than a foot of snow, probably the most for at least 10 years. With the Covid vaccination program ramping up this seems somewhat suboptimal.
Gaia is really working at this. Snowflakes= T cells?
Unlike the beast of 2018, when we got a single day’s snowfall on both of the waves, this time barely anything has reached us. A little snow in the air and a little settling in grassy corners, that is all. But it is cold.
Globally reported cases have fallen just over 40% in a month. It’s deaths which are the chart to watch, less easy to fiddle the figures, but even those appeared to have peaked almost precisely 2 weeks after reported cases
I do get the feeling that Covid may be dying out. Maybe Im being over optimistic but cases do seem to be falling very rapidly in many countries.
I still can't beleive that the incredible fall in SA cases does not make the news, esepcially given the fear mongering about the SA variant.
Hullo all. First time on here after a recommendation. Looking forward to following the political discourse.
Welcome, top tip - the best way to get this group excited is to prime a discussion on proportional representation. TSE is a particularly strong proponent of AV, second only to his love of Hawaiian pizza.
Hullo all. First time on here after a recommendation. Looking forward to following the political discourse.
Welcome, top tip - the best way to get this group excited is to prime a discussion on proportional representation. TSE is a particularly strong proponent of AV, second only to his love of Hawaiian pizza.
Something worse than pineapple on pizza posted on my F/book page yesterday; baked beans (inc. tomato sauce) on Weetabix.
Globally reported cases have fallen just over 40% in a month. It’s deaths which are the chart to watch, less easy to fiddle the figures, but even those appeared to have peaked almost precisely 2 weeks after reported cases
I do get the feeling that Covid may be dying out. Maybe Im being over optimistic but cases do seem to be falling very rapidly in many countries.
I still can't beleive that the incredible fall in SA cases does not make the news, esepcially given the fear mongering about the SA variant.
South Africa remains a red list country, as does the UAE which is well ahead of us on vaccinations.
Globally reported cases have fallen just over 40% in a month. It’s deaths which are the chart to watch, less easy to fiddle the figures, but even those appeared to have peaked almost precisely 2 weeks after reported cases
I do get the feeling that Covid may be dying out. Maybe Im being over optimistic but cases do seem to be falling very rapidly in many countries.
I still can't beleive that the incredible fall in SA cases does not make the news, esepcially given the fear mongering about the SA variant.
I do get the feeling that we have finally bored Covid to death.
"Enough with this constant talk about me already. I'm outta here...."
Globally reported cases have fallen just over 40% in a month. It’s deaths which are the chart to watch, less easy to fiddle the figures, but even those appeared to have peaked almost precisely 2 weeks after reported cases
I do get the feeling that Covid may be dying out. Maybe Im being over optimistic but cases do seem to be falling very rapidly in many countries.
I still can't beleive that the incredible fall in SA cases does not make the news, esepcially given the fear mongering about the SA variant.
South Africa remains a red list country, as does the UAE which is well ahead of us on vaccinations.
Indeed SA rightly remains a red list country. Nevertheless it is still correct to point out its remarkable decline in cases. They have been in a strict lockdown for some time it has to be said. I leave this Sky piece here for those better able to comment on -
I have been staying in Edinburgh for the last couple of days because of court hearings (I am really not comfortable trying to do substantive hearings from home). We've had some snow but last night Edinburgh has got plastered.
My home has already had more than a foot of snow, probably the most for at least 10 years. With the Covid vaccination program ramping up this seems somewhat suboptimal.
Gaia is really working at this. Snowflakes= T cells?
Remember that Independent article about snow being a memory in Britain soon?
But this used to happen every year, not every decade.
Indeed if you read the article beyond the headline the bloke said snow would become less frequent but more extreme. Which seems a fairly accurate summary of snow in Britain in the last 20 years.
The dose reduced the symptomatic infection risk by 65 per cent in younger adults, and 64 per cent in over-80s.
Glorious news.
It's not glorious. I wish it were. It's good, with caveats.
What does it do against the new variants?
It's not that much of a caveat if it is the case that if the SA variant for example were to take hold it will not be for many months at least, possibly time to stock up on the other orders we have which may be more effective against it and allow time for development of specific strains to target it, and thus means that the tens of millions of vaccinations we have done will protect against the predominant strains for the short and medium term.
But this bastard virus spreads so fast, in its new incarnation, and can also reinfect people with prior history of infection, I therefore fear you are being a bit blase.
Yet, you could be right. We may have bought enough time to drive down UK cases, keep out new variants, and thus secure a Covid-free UK. Or at least something like it: akin to Thailand, say (but with their allied economic pain of strict border quarantine)
The more effective the vaccines are, the better the case for pulling up the drawbridge. Any resultant harm will pale into insignificance compared with that of endless lockdown, or a constant cycle of regular lockdowns.
Besides anything else, the Government's two stated priorities have been 1. to stop the NHS keeling over and 2. to get children back into school. Imported SuperCovid could imperil the healthcare system and result in children being sent home and locked away again.
Set against that, we can learn to live without mass international travel for a while.
If the vaccines are very effective, travel for the vaccinated is fine.
There's always a risk that they will bring something unpleasant in, maybe something not related to this virus at all, as there's a risk that travellers will be rapists or murderers, but life is about risk I'm afraid.
There are a lot of gradiations of risk here.
Someone who's had one shot of AstraZeneca last week, and is travelling from Cape Town... well... that's not a great risk. And one would hope the full 14 days was applied.
By contrast (and choosing the absolute opposite), someone travelling from Hong Kong, with two shots of Moderna, the last of which was a month ago, is essentially risk free. Now, should you make them take a test? Yes. But if they've come straight from HK, and had the vaccine, and no-one else on the plane tested positive... well, it's pretty low likelihood. (The chance they carry a transmissable amount of the virus is perhaps 1/5000th of a random individual in the UK.)
And then there are lots of in-between cases. I've had one shot of Moderna (and hope to have my second in the next two weeks). But that's not two shots. And California (while improving) is not CV19 free. I probably shouldn't be allowed in without quarantine. Do I need quite the same quarantine as that chap from Cape Town? Probably not, but for safety's sake, something is necessary.
Maybe, but that implies a quarantine system tailored to individual circumstances, which would be far to complicated to administer, would need to change constantly and would doubtless offer lots of loopholes. So I don't think it's right for a machine as incompetent and inflexible as our border people.
That's an excellent point.
But I don't think you need to make it complicated. Hawaii, alone of the US States, has remained basically CV19 free with nothing more required than a PCR test in the 48 hours prior to departure and an antitgen test on arrival. (And, I believe, if anyone from the plane tests positive on arrival, then you're all quarantined.)
That's been sufficient - despite a lot of travel between the islands and the lower 48 and Asia - to keep CV19 at incredibly low levels.
That's me convinced. I'm going back to Hawaii, soon as I can.
With wind dropping away, tonight is being predicted as possibly the coldest night for a decade, down to -8 in parts of inland England and -12 in inland Scotland.
Check the dates - both statements are true though I am not a fan of RT
Truth is not the problem. It is the pivot from talking about Wales when the vaccination rate is lowest to talking about Britain when the Welsh rate is highest. Shades of Andy Murray being Scottish when he loses and British when he wins.
In the first he is comparing Wales to the other UK countries. In the second he is comparing the overall British record to the rest of the world. Nothing everything a Welsh (or Scottish) politician says has to be about their specific part of the country.
None shall find offence so much as those who find nothing but offence
With wind dropping away, tonight is being predicted as possibly the coldest night for a decade, down to -8 in parts of inland England and -12 in inland Scotland.
With wind dropping away, tonight is being predicted as possibly the coldest night for a decade, down to -8 in parts of inland England and -12 in inland Scotland.
I was living near Benson in the winter of 2010. Damn, that was cold. Diesel froze. The gritters couldn't get out. Snowmen were built in the middle of the road. Stayed there a week....
Globally reported cases have fallen just over 40% in a month. It’s deaths which are the chart to watch, less easy to fiddle the figures, but even those appeared to have peaked almost precisely 2 weeks after reported cases
I do get the feeling that Covid may be dying out. Maybe Im being over optimistic but cases do seem to be falling very rapidly in many countries.
I still can't beleive that the incredible fall in SA cases does not make the news, esepcially given the fear mongering about the SA variant.
Newer PBers may not remember Edmund’s widget, a doodah that could block certain posters’ contributions if other posters so desired it. It’s application was frequently accompanied by portentous announcements that X was now blocking Y because they found Y’s posts offensive/boring/made them cry.
Getting a similar needle-dicked vibe from Brillo endlessly tweeting about all the folk he’s blocking.
Most of his followers are now talking about voting for the ISP on the list. Or maybe his current fundraiser isn’t going well enough to fund all the lost deposits?
"Nimble" is certainly the mot du jour for a certain type.
And to think people used to laugh when I suggested being nimble was better than being large and sclerotic.
Who's laughing now?
I am, at you.
UK would have stayed out of the EU scheme anyway, certainly under a tory govt.
Particularly as we already had our agreement with AZN by the time the EU-wide scheme was even floated.
Given that health care has been devolved and policies actually differed, the trajectories are very close.
I thought that a chart yesterday indicated that Scotland had vaccinated 1.4% of the population in a day. I was seriously impressed by that at the time but your chart seems to suggest we are at 0.17% a day. Can you help?
Newer PBers may not remember Edmund’s widget, a doodah that could block certain posters’ contributions if other posters so desired it. It’s application was frequently accompanied by portentous announcements that X was now blocking Y because they found Y’s posts offensive/boring/made them cry.
Getting a similar needle-dicked vibe from Brillo endlessly tweeting about all the folk he’s blocking.
"Nimble" is certainly the mot du jour for a certain type.
And to think people used to laugh when I suggested being nimble was better than being large and sclerotic.
Who's laughing now?
I am, at you.
UK would have stayed out of the EU scheme anyway, certainly under a tory govt.
Particularly as we already had our agreement with AZN by the time the EU-wide scheme was even floated.
Given that health care has been devolved and policies actually differed, the trajectories are very close.
I thought that a chart yesterday indicated that Scotland had vaccinated 1.4% of the population in a day. I was seriously impressed by that at the time but your chart seems to suggest we are at 0.17% a day. Can you help?
The y axis is in 1.0 = 100% mode
Also, I am using full population, rather than adults over 16+
"Nimble" is certainly the mot du jour for a certain type.
And to think people used to laugh when I suggested being nimble was better than being large and sclerotic.
Who's laughing now?
I am, at you.
UK would have stayed out of the EU scheme anyway, certainly under a tory govt.
Particularly as we already had our agreement with AZN by the time the EU-wide scheme was even floated.
Given that health care has been devolved and policies actually differed, the trajectories are very close.
I thought that a chart yesterday indicated that Scotland had vaccinated 1.4% of the population in a day. I was seriously impressed by that at the time but your chart seems to suggest we are at 0.17% a day. Can you help?
The scale and the title do not match: it should be "Nation vaccinations as a fraction of the population".
Most of his followers are now talking about voting for the ISP on the list. Or maybe his current fundraiser isn’t going well enough to fund all the lost deposits?
Suspect he was hoping someone with a political pedigree was going to weigh in which has not now happened.
I have been staying in Edinburgh for the last couple of days because of court hearings (I am really not comfortable trying to do substantive hearings from home). We've had some snow but last night Edinburgh has got plastered.
My home has already had more than a foot of snow, probably the most for at least 10 years. With the Covid vaccination program ramping up this seems somewhat suboptimal.
Gaia is really working at this. Snowflakes= T cells?
Moderate snowfall on Cannock Chase. Just been out shopping and would estimate about an inch.
What’s making it interesting is that no roads - not even the main A34 - have been gritted, but there are a lot of tossers in 4x4s driving as if they had been. And tailgating people who noticed that they hadn’t. This made life - slippery.
I’m wondering why gritting has failed because in my experience CCDC is normally very on the ball about such things and the Highways Agency round here are also no fools. I am uneasily wondering if they are running short of rock salt.
Globally reported cases have fallen just over 40% in a month. It’s deaths which are the chart to watch, less easy to fiddle the figures, but even those appeared to have peaked almost precisely 2 weeks after reported cases
I do get the feeling that Covid may be dying out. Maybe Im being over optimistic but cases do seem to be falling very rapidly in many countries.
I still can't beleive that the incredible fall in SA cases does not make the news, esepcially given the fear mongering about the SA variant.
May be Gaia was just firing a warning short?
In all seriousness, for all the heartache and disruption, the pandemic thus far has not been (historically) that bad. Leaving aside the Black Death, there are people (just about) alive today who lived through the 1918-20 flu pandemic. There were 1.8 billion people in the world in 1918, H1N1 killed between 50 and 100 million of them. The death toll was 228,000 in Britain alone from a population of just over 40 million. At the moment the fatality count for C19 is 2.5 million out of 7.8 billion and, as we know, about 112,000 in the UK from a population just under double what it was in the early 20s.
"We can calculate a range of plausible global fatality rates for the Spanish flu by varying the number of infections from 25 to 75 percent of the world population in 1918 and the number of deaths from 25 to 100 million. If we do so, we find that a reasonable estimate for the global case fatality rate of the Spanish flu is 6 to 8 percent. To be clear, this means that 6 to 8 percent of those who were infected died. Global mortality of the Spanish flu—which is to say, the proportion of all people everywhere (infected and uninfected alike) who died from the disease—was probably between 2 and 4 percent. A conflation of mortality across the world and fatality among the infected may partly explain some of the pervasive statistical confusion surrounding the Spanish flu." ... "...But the latest estimates of Covid-19’s fatality rate, infectiousness, and its response to public health measures indicate that in relative terms it will not match the devastation of 1918. The Spanish flu’s global mortality rate of 3 percent would translate to more than more than 230 million deaths today..."
Globally reported cases have fallen just over 40% in a month. It’s deaths which are the chart to watch, less easy to fiddle the figures, but even those appeared to have peaked almost precisely 2 weeks after reported cases
I do get the feeling that Covid may be dying out. Maybe Im being over optimistic but cases do seem to be falling very rapidly in many countries.
I still can't beleive that the incredible fall in SA cases does not make the news, esepcially given the fear mongering about the SA variant.
Dying out? Int that what Toby Young etc were saying in June...
I don't think that we have reached the final chapter of this story just yet.
Hullo all. First time on here after a recommendation. Looking forward to following the political discourse.
Welcome, top tip - the best way to get this group excited is to prime a discussion on proportional representation. TSE is a particularly strong proponent of AV, second only to his love of Hawaiian pizza.
Something worse than pineapple on pizza posted on my F/book page yesterday; baked beans (inc. tomato sauce) on Weetabix.
Not a good thought to start the morning!
This twitter stream covers a multitude of unlikely food combinations.
Globally reported cases have fallen just over 40% in a month. It’s deaths which are the chart to watch, less easy to fiddle the figures, but even those appeared to have peaked almost precisely 2 weeks after reported cases
I do get the feeling that Covid may be dying out. Maybe Im being over optimistic but cases do seem to be falling very rapidly in many countries.
I still can't beleive that the incredible fall in SA cases does not make the news, esepcially given the fear mongering about the SA variant.
May be Gaia was just firing a warning short?
In all seriousness, for all the heartache and disruption, the pandemic thus far has not been (historically) that bad. Leaving aside the Black Death, there are people (just about) alive today who lived through the 1918-20 flu pandemic. There were 1.8 billion people in the world in 1918, H1N1 killed between 50 and 100 million of them. The death toll was 228,000 in Britain alone from a population of just over 40 million. At the moment the fatality count for C19 is 2.5 million out of 7.8 billion and, as we know, about 112,000 in the UK from a population just under double what it was in the early 20s.
"We can calculate a range of plausible global fatality rates for the Spanish flu by varying the number of infections from 25 to 75 percent of the world population in 1918 and the number of deaths from 25 to 100 million. If we do so, we find that a reasonable estimate for the global case fatality rate of the Spanish flu is 6 to 8 percent. To be clear, this means that 6 to 8 percent of those who were infected died. Global mortality of the Spanish flu—which is to say, the proportion of all people everywhere (infected and uninfected alike) who died from the disease—was probably between 2 and 4 percent. A conflation of mortality across the world and fatality among the infected may partly explain some of the pervasive statistical confusion surrounding the Spanish flu." ... "...But the latest estimates of Covid-19’s fatality rate, infectiousness, and its response to public health measures indicate that in relative terms it will not match the devastation of 1918. The Spanish flu’s global mortality rate of 3 percent would translate to more than more than 230 million deaths today..."
I remember listening to a radio programme where a woman was trying to find out where a relative of hers had died in WW1. She found records of him in first one battle, then another and finally she found where he was on November the 11th, 1918. It turned out he had survived the war, but then died of Spanish Flu.
Globally reported cases have fallen just over 40% in a month. It’s deaths which are the chart to watch, less easy to fiddle the figures, but even those appeared to have peaked almost precisely 2 weeks after reported cases
I do get the feeling that Covid may be dying out. Maybe Im being over optimistic but cases do seem to be falling very rapidly in many countries.
I still can't beleive that the incredible fall in SA cases does not make the news, esepcially given the fear mongering about the SA variant.
May be Gaia was just firing a warning short?
In all seriousness, for all the heartache and disruption, the pandemic thus far has not been (historically) that bad. Leaving aside the Black Death, there are people (just about) alive today who lived through the 1918-20 flu pandemic. There were 1.8 billion people in the world in 1918, H1N1 killed between 50 and 100 million of them. The death toll was 228,000 in Britain alone from a population of just over 40 million. At the moment the fatality count for C19 is 2.5 million out of 7.8 billion and, as we know, about 112,000 in the UK from a population just under double what it was in the early 20s.
"We can calculate a range of plausible global fatality rates for the Spanish flu by varying the number of infections from 25 to 75 percent of the world population in 1918 and the number of deaths from 25 to 100 million. If we do so, we find that a reasonable estimate for the global case fatality rate of the Spanish flu is 6 to 8 percent. To be clear, this means that 6 to 8 percent of those who were infected died. Global mortality of the Spanish flu—which is to say, the proportion of all people everywhere (infected and uninfected alike) who died from the disease—was probably between 2 and 4 percent. A conflation of mortality across the world and fatality among the infected may partly explain some of the pervasive statistical confusion surrounding the Spanish flu." ... "...But the latest estimates of Covid-19’s fatality rate, infectiousness, and its response to public health measures indicate that in relative terms it will not match the devastation of 1918. The Spanish flu’s global mortality rate of 3 percent would translate to more than more than 230 million deaths today..."
Although I think Spanish flu's death toll was inflated by the poor nutritional state of the population after WW1 and a general breakdown in societal defence mechanisms
Newer PBers may not remember Edmund’s widget, a doodah that could block certain posters’ contributions if other posters so desired it. It’s application was frequently accompanied by portentous announcements that X was now blocking Y because they found Y’s posts offensive/boring/made them cry.
Getting a similar needle-dicked vibe from Brillo endlessly tweeting about all the folk he’s blocking.
It’s great that after courageously breaking the ‘face made for radio’ taboo, Neil is now proving that reactionary sausage meat can have its own channel.
Comments
Someone who's had one shot of AstraZeneca last week, and is travelling from Cape Town... well... that's not a great risk. And one would hope the full 14 days was applied.
By contrast (and choosing the absolute opposite), someone travelling from Hong Kong, with two shots of Moderna, the last of which was a month ago, is essentially risk free. Now, should you make them take a test? Yes. But if they've come straight from HK, and had the vaccine, and no-one else on the plane tested positive... well, it's pretty low likelihood. (The chance they carry a transmissable amount of the virus is perhaps 1/5000th of a random individual in the UK.)
And then there are lots of in-between cases. I've had one shot of Moderna (and hope to have my second in the next two weeks). But that's not two shots. And California (while improving) is not CV19 free. I probably shouldn't be allowed in without quarantine. Do I need quite the same quarantine as that chap from Cape Town? Probably not, but for safety's sake, something is necessary.
I bet his mortgage broker had fun in their meetings screwing him to the highest interest rate possible without him realising.
https://twitter.com/twcuddleston/status/1352664361517641733
But the authors of the original piece really should not be allowed to advise a tuck shop.
But I don't think you need to make it complicated. Hawaii, alone of the US States, has remained basically CV19 free with nothing more required than a PCR test in the 48 hours prior to departure and an antitgen test on arrival. (And, I believe, if anyone from the plane tests positive on arrival, then you're all quarantined.)
That's been sufficient - despite a lot of travel between the islands and the lower 48 and Asia - to keep CV19 at incredibly low levels.
Certainly wouldn't be taking the car out like this.
My home has already had more than a foot of snow, probably the most for at least 10 years. With the Covid vaccination program ramping up this seems somewhat suboptimal.
Gaia is really working at this. Snowflakes= T cells?
I guess my point is a simple one.
Let's say you have 1,000 domestic cases of CV19. If you import 100 cases a day from abroad, then you have a major problem.
On the other hand, if you import one case a day, then you don't. Compared to the indigenous CV19 cases, the imported ones are a rounding error.
If you can cut the number of imported cases by 99% at minimal cost (and Hawaii is a massively tourism driven economy), then that's a good call. It's certainly a better call (for them) than cutting it by 100% and not having a tourism industry.
Now, the UK is different. It has other industries than tourism. (It also has truckers coming from across Europe that are not going to be tested in the same way, but that's another story.) And there is the question of new variants which argue for more caution.
But I do think the spoils will go to those who open up first post CV19. Where is welcoming to those seeking to invest or travel? Us business folk are simple people.
Why is the judge sitting in front of a satanic shrine?
And is whoever recorded it and released that recording now in contempt of court?
So much to know....
https://twitter.com/jonaelisowen/status/1359179218962235392?s=21
Who's laughing now?
I still can't beleive that the incredible fall in SA cases does not make the news, esepcially given the fear mongering about the SA variant.
https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2021/02/10/elton-john-michael-caine-vaccine-psa-nhs-england-vpx.nhs
Not a good thought to start the morning!
"Enough with this constant talk about me already. I'm outta here...."
Welcome to PB, Mr. Smithers.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-south-africas-covid-lockdown-may-have-created-herd-immunity-12116494
Damn, I've missed the pizzas....
UK would have stayed out of the EU scheme anyway, certainly under a tory govt.
https://twitter.com/mhairihunter/status/1359411374330437636?s=21
UVDL saying in the EU Parliament that mistakes were made over A16, and that they underestimated the difficulty in producing vaccines
And she did not offer her resignation
Even I don’t think the brass necked twat would be stupid enough to put out both tweets on the same day.
None shall find offence so much as those who find nothing but offence
https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2010/jan/07/benson-village-boasts-coldest-temperature
Welcome anyway
(but how come your first post shows post count "0"?)
However, he is a politician doing what they all do
"People are buying second homes in their late 20s,"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/uk/second-home-frenzy-four-times-many-londoners-snap-getaway-pads/
Doesn't "Vaccine! War!" ring a bell?
Parents in their 50's patiently waiting
The country is getting there it seems.....
Although we might not have had a general election last May...
Getting a similar needle-dicked vibe from Brillo endlessly tweeting about all the folk he’s blocking.
https://twitter.com/afneil/status/1359132806455193606?s=21
Railways? Pizza? The incorrect use of 'less'? If these are your interests, you are in the right place!
Also, I am using full population, rather than adults over 16+
What’s making it interesting is that no roads - not even the main A34 - have been gritted, but there are a lot of tossers in 4x4s driving as if they had been. And tailgating people who noticed that they hadn’t. This made life - slippery.
I’m wondering why gritting has failed because in my experience CCDC is normally very on the ball about such things and the Highways Agency round here are also no fools. I am uneasily wondering if they are running short of rock salt.
"We can calculate a range of plausible global fatality rates for the Spanish flu by varying the number of infections from 25 to 75 percent of the world population in 1918 and the number of deaths from 25 to 100 million. If we do so, we find that a reasonable estimate for the global case fatality rate of the Spanish flu is 6 to 8 percent. To be clear, this means that 6 to 8 percent of those who were infected died. Global mortality of the Spanish flu—which is to say, the proportion of all people everywhere (infected and uninfected alike) who died from the disease—was probably between 2 and 4 percent. A conflation of mortality across the world and fatality among the infected may partly explain some of the pervasive statistical confusion surrounding the Spanish flu."
...
"...But the latest estimates of Covid-19’s fatality rate, infectiousness, and its response to public health measures indicate that in relative terms it will not match the devastation of 1918. The Spanish flu’s global mortality rate of 3 percent would translate to more than more than 230 million deaths today..."
https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19-is-nothing-like-the-spanish-flu/
I don't think that we have reached the final chapter of this story just yet.
https://twitter.com/weetabix/status/1359074254789165059?s=19
been cancelled for being insufficiently anti-Brexit