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The Tories biggest challenge at the next general election: Starmer isn’t Corbyn – politicalbetting.c

SystemSystem Posts: 12,127
edited February 2021 in General
imageThe Tories biggest challenge at the next general election: Starmer isn’t Corbyn – politicalbetting.com

One of the key factors about Johnson’s electoral successes is that they have happened when he’s been up against LAB opponents who subsequently became massive negatives for their party. Thus Boris beat Ken Livingstone for the London Mayoralty in 2008 and 2012 and his 2019 general election victory was against Corbyn who by then had been hugely discredited.

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Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 28,077
    First as Labour will be at the next election.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    First like Labour :wink:
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Despite question marks over Starmer, I think he has set expectations for a potential Labour government at a completely different level from Corbyn. Now it is being tested as a serious alternative government.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    Scotland to quarantine ALL International travellers from Monday (not just the "Red-List" countries):

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1359156489919860742?s=20

    Which looks like one flight a day at Aberdeen from Bergen and another from Doha at Edinburgh....

    Meanwhile, anybody flying into Newcastle or Leeds or Manchester and then getting a train north.....
    They'll be obliged to quarantine too - by what method or measures, not yet clear.
    By passing the buck to England:

    Those arriving into England for onward travel to Scotland “will have to isolate in a hotel in England”, the transport secretary said.

    https://www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus/incoming-travellers-scotland-will-face-quarantine-hotels-monday-3129278?r=8387

    Not sure how that's going to work.....
    Good! Don’t want them here! Seriously though, I don’t understand why the UK Government don’t also insist on all travellers from abroad having to isolate in hotels, when the travellers are paying for their accommodation.
    I don't get it either. Good on the Scottish government for doing it properly. Hopefully it puts pressure on Boris to do it as well and we approach Ireland over a two island approach.
  • Is this the queue for the left over vaccines for today?
  • LeonLeon Posts: 54,677
    MaxPB said:

    Scotland to quarantine ALL International travellers from Monday (not just the "Red-List" countries):

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1359156489919860742?s=20

    Which looks like one flight a day at Aberdeen from Bergen and another from Doha at Edinburgh....

    Meanwhile, anybody flying into Newcastle or Leeds or Manchester and then getting a train north.....
    They'll be obliged to quarantine too - by what method or measures, not yet clear.
    By passing the buck to England:

    Those arriving into England for onward travel to Scotland “will have to isolate in a hotel in England”, the transport secretary said.

    https://www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus/incoming-travellers-scotland-will-face-quarantine-hotels-monday-3129278?r=8387

    Not sure how that's going to work.....
    Good! Don’t want them here! Seriously though, I don’t understand why the UK Government don’t also insist on all travellers from abroad having to isolate in hotels, when the travellers are paying for their accommodation.
    I don't get it either. Good on the Scottish government for doing it properly. Hopefully it puts pressure on Boris to do it as well and we approach Ireland over a two island approach.
    HMG is hesitating because it will further screw the economy, at a time when the UK is already tottering, thanks to Covid and Brexit.

    cf Thailand, which has had this hotel quarantine policy for many months. It has crushed Covid, but it has also completely crushed tourism and hospitality, which were huge earners for Thailand.



    https://mustsharenews.com/platinum-fashion-mall-close/


    So much so, Bangkok is now considering vaccine passports.

    https://www.thaipbsworld.com/vaccinated-foreigners-may-be-allowed-to-enter-thailand-without-quarantine/

    Whatever HMG says, vaccine passports are coming because all our fave destinations will demand them.

  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208
    Not clear about the rules for Next PM after Johnson. Would that include a Starmer-led Labour Party winning the next GE? If so odds should be much better than 20%.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    I still maintain labour are an analogue party in a digital world. I even reckon their current 37/38% share is extremely soft.

    Young people are a key constituency for them. What are they offering people 18-35?

    A vast tundra of colossal debt, disrupted education, joblessness and draconian restrictions on everything that makes being young so great.

    This segment may still be labour supporting, but ask yourself, would you turn out to vote for THAT?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528
    Leon said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scotland to quarantine ALL International travellers from Monday (not just the "Red-List" countries):

    https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1359156489919860742?s=20

    Which looks like one flight a day at Aberdeen from Bergen and another from Doha at Edinburgh....

    Meanwhile, anybody flying into Newcastle or Leeds or Manchester and then getting a train north.....
    They'll be obliged to quarantine too - by what method or measures, not yet clear.
    By passing the buck to England:

    Those arriving into England for onward travel to Scotland “will have to isolate in a hotel in England”, the transport secretary said.

    https://www.scotsman.com/health/coronavirus/incoming-travellers-scotland-will-face-quarantine-hotels-monday-3129278?r=8387

    Not sure how that's going to work.....
    Good! Don’t want them here! Seriously though, I don’t understand why the UK Government don’t also insist on all travellers from abroad having to isolate in hotels, when the travellers are paying for their accommodation.
    I don't get it either. Good on the Scottish government for doing it properly. Hopefully it puts pressure on Boris to do it as well and we approach Ireland over a two island approach.
    HMG is hesitating because it will further screw the economy, at a time when the UK is already tottering, thanks to Covid and Brexit.

    cf Thailand, which has had this hotel quarantine policy for many months. It has crushed Covid, but it has also completely crushed tourism and hospitality, which were huge earners for Thailand.



    https://mustsharenews.com/platinum-fashion-mall-close/


    So much so, Bangkok is now considering vaccine passports.

    https://www.thaipbsworld.com/vaccinated-foreigners-may-be-allowed-to-enter-thailand-without-quarantine/

    Whatever HMG says, vaccine passports are coming because all our fave destinations will demand them.

    Tourism is already dead in the UK and we can also introduce vaccine passports for all UK approved vaccines in the future for incoming travellers to dodge the quarantine.

    There is no reason to have this partial limit on entry. Look at what is happening in Austria, a country which isn't currently on the red list. Someone from Austria can easily fly to the UK with the SA variant, ignore all of the quarantine rules, spread the virus to the people they visit and fly back. It's not enough to block people from Brazil, Portugal and SA, we need to block everyone from everywhere until such time as we have our rapid vaccine response with CureVac ready to go and individuals can show they have been vaccinated with easy to check national databases attached to passport numbers.
  • Tokyo 2020: Games chief's remarks about women 'absolutely inappropriate', says IOC - https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/56000804

    Face palm....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    edited February 2021
    FF43 said:

    Despite question marks over Starmer, I think he has set expectations for a potential Labour government at a completely different level from Corbyn. Now it is being tested as a serious alternative government.

    He needs a shadow cabinet who are half decent. He's got quite good people but for some reason has overlooked some of the better ones. Yvette Cooper is impressive Rachel Reeves Hillary Benn and Ian Murray to name a few. It's difficult seeing Johnson suddenly turning into a silk purse so SKS should be in with a shout.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Re-watching he 2019 election night Labour were adamant the election result had nothing to do with Corbyn. It was all the B word. So the chart in the header is all lies.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,342
    On topic. Yeah I agree Starmer is under priced. 30-35 % maybe.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    FF43 said:

    Despite question marks over Starmer, I think he has set expectations for a potential Labour government at a completely different level from Corbyn. Now it is being tested as a serious alternative government.

    The question mark over Starmer is not dissimilar to the question marks over lightweight Bambi prior to 1997.

    I don't think Starmer needs to flesh out the bones of his programme for Government yet, as demanded by Tories. However the time to at least see some bones rather than just fresh air is already here.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851

    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues

    So not wearing face masks is working?
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    I like those Starmer odds too. The GE will imo be Johnson v Starmer and I'd make that a 60/40. Obvious caveat of way way too early for anything but broadbrush helicopter views.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues

    Lockdown works to get cases down. This is not a surprise, hopefully this time with the vaccination programme we won't see them go back up like last time.
  • 12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues

    Still sobering that another 1000+ deaths.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues


    In some respects those cases are falling too fast for Johnson's government.
  • MaxPB said:

    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues

    Lockdown works to get cases down. This is not a surprise, hopefully this time with the vaccination programme we won't see them go back up like last time.
    The big unknown is how much we can release the restrictions without R going over 1. Just schools going back could well do it.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851

    Re-watching he 2019 election night Labour were adamant the election result had nothing to do with Corbyn. It was all the B word. So the chart in the header is all lies.

    That's a really weird thing to do! I can imagine re watching a football match or boxing for the action but an election? All who don't want to know the result look away now.....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,265
    edited February 2021
    Plus Brexit has been done too of course now but Starmer cannot just rely on not being Boris and not being Corbyn, he also has to have some positive reasons to vote for him too
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 42,753
    HYUFD said:

    Plus Brexit has been done too of course now but Starmer cannot just rely on not being Boris and not being Corbyn, he also has to have some positive reasons to vote for him too

    At the despatch box and in the voting lobby he has not overly shown that he is not Boris.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    FF43 said:

    Despite question marks over Starmer, I think he has set expectations for a potential Labour government at a completely different level from Corbyn. Now it is being tested as a serious alternative government.

    The question mark over Starmer is not dissimilar to the question marks over lightweight Bambi prior to 1997.

    I don't think Starmer needs to flesh out the bones of his programme for Government yet, as demanded by Tories. However the time to at least see some bones rather than just fresh air is already here.
    Not sure Starmer needs to lay out the shape of his programme. But I think he needs to make the moral case for a Labour government, as opposed to the Conservative one, better than he is doing.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    MaxPB said:

    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues

    Lockdown works to get cases down. This is not a surprise, hopefully this time with the vaccination programme we won't see them go back up like last time.
    The big unknown is how much we can release the restrictions without R going over 1. Just schools going back could well do it.
    Best we leave our children uneducated and rotting then.......???......FFS.....
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    kinabalu said:

    I like those Starmer odds too. The GE will imo be Johnson v Starmer and I'd make that a 60/40. Obvious caveat of way way too early for anything but broadbrush helicopter views.

    That is a fair call.

    I would expect to see it at 50/50 by this time next year, and as the economy struggles Starmer may edge it thereafter.
  • ozymandiasozymandias Posts: 1,503
    Roger said:

    Re-watching he 2019 election night Labour were adamant the election result had nothing to do with Corbyn. It was all the B word. So the chart in the header is all lies.

    That's a really weird thing to do! I can imagine re watching a football match or boxing for the action but an election? All who don't want to know the result look away now.....
    It's actually quite interesting. Well for me anyway.

    Re-watched the 2010 election and the number of times "Strong and Stable" was uttered by Labour was amusing. Ms Harman in-fact was the first the use it when being interviewed. Brown himself muttered the legendary words.

    How we easily forget.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,451
    edited February 2021

    MaxPB said:

    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues

    Lockdown works to get cases down. This is not a surprise, hopefully this time with the vaccination programme we won't see them go back up like last time.
    The big unknown is how much we can release the restrictions without R going over 1. Just schools going back could well do it.
    Best we leave our children uneducated and rotting then.......???......FFS.....
    That isn't what i said.... hopefully we can get schools back shortly, but that might be the maximum amount of loosing of restrictions that are possible.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190

    MaxPB said:

    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues

    Lockdown works to get cases down. This is not a surprise, hopefully this time with the vaccination programme we won't see them go back up like last time.
    The big unknown is how much we can release the restrictions without R going over 1. Just schools going back could well do it.
    Best we leave our children uneducated and rotting then.......???......FFS.....
    On 110, 000 and counting fatalities, Johnson is right to be cautious.
  • Trends continue:


  • The most notable polling of recent days has been the revelation by IPSOS-Mori that only 4% of the public think that Labour has changed for the worse under Starmer, while 48% think that under him the party has changed for the better.

    That poll ought to be set in tablets of stone and held up at every Constituency Labour Party meeting the next time that the far left unreconstructed Corbynite die-hards kick off.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    MaxPB said:

    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues

    Lockdown works to get cases down. This is not a surprise, hopefully this time with the vaccination programme we won't see them go back up like last time.
    The big unknown is how much we can release the restrictions without R going over 1. Just schools going back could well do it.
    We will see, I think the question will be symptomatic COVID in April once all the over 50s have been immunised, we could be at a very low number and almost no hospitalisations with deaths in the 10s per day. The pressure to unlock the economy will be immense and the party will axe Boris to get rid of Hancock and rule by SAGE if necessary.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,870
    Roger said:

    Re-watching he 2019 election night Labour were adamant the election result had nothing to do with Corbyn. It was all the B word. So the chart in the header is all lies.

    That's a really weird thing to do! I can imagine re watching a football match or boxing for the action but an election?
    Not weird on here, I suspect.
  • 12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues


    In some respects those cases are falling too fast for Johnson's government.
    You're paranoid delusional.

    The idea that there is a nefarious cabal of evil scientists cackling at how they can keep you locked up at home; evil scientists determined to punish ordinary Brits by making them be paid to be at home watching Netflix instead of going to work; evil SAGE ...

    SAGE really aren't SPECTRE.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Very disappointing to see England's week-on-week decline in vaccination numbers. I think England will need to call in some Scottish experts to help get their vaccination programme back on track.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,190
    FF43 said:

    FF43 said:

    Despite question marks over Starmer, I think he has set expectations for a potential Labour government at a completely different level from Corbyn. Now it is being tested as a serious alternative government.

    The question mark over Starmer is not dissimilar to the question marks over lightweight Bambi prior to 1997.

    I don't think Starmer needs to flesh out the bones of his programme for Government yet, as demanded by Tories. However the time to at least see some bones rather than just fresh air is already here.
    Not sure Starmer needs to lay out the shape of his programme. But I think he needs to make the moral case for a Labour government, as opposed to the Conservative one, better than he is doing.
    The answer to your conundrum according to our Tory friends is to wrap himself in the Union Flag. I would prefer a promotion of UK plc by Starmer instead.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited February 2021

    MaxPB said:

    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues

    Lockdown works to get cases down. This is not a surprise, hopefully this time with the vaccination programme we won't see them go back up like last time.
    The big unknown is how much we can release the restrictions without R going over 1. Just schools going back could well do it.
    Best we leave our children uneducated and rotting then.......???......FFS.....
    On 110, 000 and counting fatalities, Johnson is right to be cautious.
    It is not an either or. The evidence shows this.

    French children are in school. They do not have the vaccine like we do. They rejected a full lockdown. Their cases are still dropping. Cases are also dropping in US juristictions that do not have lockdowns or in some cases even mask mandates.

    What you and Urquhart are presenting is a false choice and a false cause and effect model.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/09/county-council-to-reconsider-cumbria-coal-mine-application

    Cumbria county council has said it will reconsider the planning application for a new coalmine near Whitehaven, which has prompted widespread criticism, in light of new information on UK greenhouse gas targets.

    Morons.

    What the actual fuck? How do the non-idiots make our views known to Cumbria County Council?
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314
    I reckon 20% on Starmer being next PM is very generous. I'd put it at around 50%, with the proviso that Covid is over as a health issue, though not an economic one.

    Corbyn has gone. Brexit is done - the outcome will still be an issue, but not Brexit itself. The far, far left are either leaving Labour or being marginalised. Because of Covid, neither Starmer nor his team have had a decent hearing yet on anything other than the crisis. Starmer is no fool: policy development is well under way. The Tories' support is flattered by the pandemic and boosted by vaccination; it's not that deep, and once the health crisis is over the nation will be less inclined to give the government the benefit of the doubt. Tories have been in power a long time. And if the Shadow Cabinet has weaknesses, these are no greater, and I would suggest less, than those in the actual Cabinet. Oh, and people like JRM wittering on about 'happy fish' will lose the Tories votes. Oh, and Boris's appeal will wear a bit thin by 2024.

    I'm almost persuading myself that Starmer has a better than evens chance of next PM.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    Alistair said:

    Very disappointing to see England's week-on-week decline in vaccination numbers. I think England will need to call in some Scottish experts to help get their vaccination programme back on track.

    Not sure why the snark is necessary. It's only Scotland using the stockpile that has been accumulated.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    Alistair said:

    Very disappointing to see England's week-on-week decline in vaccination numbers. I think England will need to call in some Scottish experts to help get their vaccination programme back on track.

    I agree! :lol:
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,889
    The FCA's regulation has been beyond awful of investments such as LCF. You accept you might be taking a risk when you've got say a second charge on a house paying 12% PA but the risks are far beyond what they should be.
  • MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues

    Lockdown works to get cases down. This is not a surprise, hopefully this time with the vaccination programme we won't see them go back up like last time.
    The big unknown is how much we can release the restrictions without R going over 1. Just schools going back could well do it.
    We will see, I think the question will be symptomatic COVID in April once all the over 50s have been immunised, we could be at a very low number and almost no hospitalisations with deaths in the 10s per day. The pressure to unlock the economy will be immense and the party will axe Boris to get rid of Hancock and rule by SAGE if necessary.
    They won't need to axe Boris. He is as anxious to lift lockdown as anyone rational.

    The priority though should be how can we eliminate domestic restrictions entirely. Saying pubs can reopen but with a curfew, social distancing, no mixing of households ... That isn't living.

    We need to be able to reopen properly. If staying locked down for a fortnight longer means we can then reopen properly rather than stuck in purgatory we should do that.
  • MaxPB said:

    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues

    Lockdown works to get cases down. This is not a surprise, hopefully this time with the vaccination programme we won't see them go back up like last time.
    The big unknown is how much we can release the restrictions without R going over 1. Just schools going back could well do it.
    Best we leave our children uneducated and rotting then.......???......FFS.....
    On 110, 000 and counting fatalities, Johnson is right to be cautious.
    It is not an either or. The evidence shows this.

    French children are in school. They do not have the vaccine like we do. They rejected a full lockdown. Their cases are still dropping. Cases are also dropping in US juristictions that do not have lockdowns or in some cases even mask mandates.

    What you and Urquhart are presenting is a false choice and a false cause and effect model.
    You know that French cases aren't dropping, right?

    They've had 20,000 cases/day for the last month...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823

    MaxPB said:

    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues

    Lockdown works to get cases down. This is not a surprise, hopefully this time with the vaccination programme we won't see them go back up like last time.
    The big unknown is how much we can release the restrictions without R going over 1. Just schools going back could well do it.
    Best we leave our children uneducated and rotting then.......???......FFS.....
    On 110, 000 and counting fatalities, Johnson is right to be cautious.
    It is not an either or. The evidence shows this.

    French children are in school. They do not have the vaccine like we do. They rejected a full lockdown. Their cases are still dropping. Cases are also dropping in US juristictions that do not have lockdowns or in some cases even mask mandates.

    What you and Urquhart are presenting is a false choice and a false cause and effect model.
    You know that French cases aren't dropping, right?

    They've had 20,000 cases/day for the last month...
    Yeah, it is totally false to claim they are dropping. If anything, they are going up.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/france/
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues


    In some respects those cases are falling too fast for Johnson's government.
    You're paranoid delusional.

    The idea that there is a nefarious cabal of evil scientists cackling at how they can keep you locked up at home; evil scientists determined to punish ordinary Brits by making them be paid to be at home watching Netflix instead of going to work; evil SAGE ...

    SAGE really aren't SPECTRE.
    I am merely going on what Sir Ian Boyd said today. He's a member of SAGE, last time I looked. Are you saying I should ignore him?
  • Trends continue:


    I've said for a while I'll be happy once positivity is back under 1%. We are fast approaching that. Looks like it's fallen under 2% today which is a dramatic turnaround from what it was recently.

    That testing numbers are holding up while the positives are collapsing is really good news.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    Very disappointing to see England's week-on-week decline in vaccination numbers. I think England will need to call in some Scottish experts to help get their vaccination programme back on track.

    Not sure why the snark is necessary. It's only Scotland using the stockpile that has been accumulated.
    Must be having a reaction to all the needless shit chatted about Scotland 2 weeks ago.

    Absolutely loving the "Scottish government lying about how many Care Home Residents it has vaccinated" thought line at the moment.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,314
    edited February 2021

    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues


    In some respects those cases are falling too fast for Johnson's government.
    You're paranoid delusional.

    The idea that there is a nefarious cabal of evil scientists cackling at how they can keep you locked up at home; evil scientists determined to punish ordinary Brits by making them be paid to be at home watching Netflix instead of going to work; evil SAGE ...

    SAGE really aren't SPECTRE.
    The true identity of SAGE will only be revealed when the thyme is right.
    Including the fact that Basil is a secret member of Sage?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    Very disappointing to see England's week-on-week decline in vaccination numbers. I think England will need to call in some Scottish experts to help get their vaccination programme back on track.

    Not sure why the snark is necessary. It's only Scotland using the stockpile that has been accumulated.
    Must be having a reaction to all the needless shit chatted about Scotland 2 weeks ago.

    Absolutely loving the "Scottish government lying about how many Care Home Residents it has vaccinated" thought line at the moment.
    Well they have a point if they are now sitting on a huge surplus when they could have been vaccinating more people outside of the first tier.

    Did you ever get to the bottom of the overall number in Scottish care homes? I recall we discussed an apparent inconsistency in the figures relating to the population eligible.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    MaxPB said:

    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues

    Lockdown works to get cases down. This is not a surprise, hopefully this time with the vaccination programme we won't see them go back up like last time.
    The big unknown is how much we can release the restrictions without R going over 1. Just schools going back could well do it.
    Best we leave our children uneducated and rotting then.......???......FFS.....
    On 110, 000 and counting fatalities, Johnson is right to be cautious.
    It is not an either or. The evidence shows this.

    French children are in school. They do not have the vaccine like we do. They rejected a full lockdown. Their cases are still dropping. Cases are also dropping in US juristictions that do not have lockdowns or in some cases even mask mandates.

    What you and Urquhart are presenting is a false choice and a false cause and effect model.
    You know that French cases aren't dropping, right?

    They've had 20,000 cases/day for the last month...
    It is one of those weird coincidences that their cases dropped when they had their 2nd lockdown. And have started rising since lockdown was released.
  • 12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues


    In some respects those cases are falling too fast for Johnson's government.
    You're paranoid delusional.

    The idea that there is a nefarious cabal of evil scientists cackling at how they can keep you locked up at home; evil scientists determined to punish ordinary Brits by making them be paid to be at home watching Netflix instead of going to work; evil SAGE ...

    SAGE really aren't SPECTRE.
    I am merely going on what Sir Ian Boyd said today. He's a member of SAGE, last time I looked. Are you saying I should ignore him?
    No I expect you are utterly misrepresenting or misunderstanding him though.

    Go on, how has he suggested that cases are falling too fast? I call BS.
  • tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/09/county-council-to-reconsider-cumbria-coal-mine-application

    Cumbria county council has said it will reconsider the planning application for a new coalmine near Whitehaven, which has prompted widespread criticism, in light of new information on UK greenhouse gas targets.

    Morons.

    What the actual fuck? How do the non-idiots make our views known to Cumbria County Council?
    Nobody in authority seems prepared to stand by a rational and balanced decision when under attack from the green lobbyists and activists. If there was, say, a televised debate on this decision the anti-mining side would be annihilated because this mine will reduce net carbon emissions unless the UK is going to abandon infrastructure development (including wind farms) that require steel!
  • Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    Very disappointing to see England's week-on-week decline in vaccination numbers. I think England will need to call in some Scottish experts to help get their vaccination programme back on track.

    Not sure why the snark is necessary. It's only Scotland using the stockpile that has been accumulated.
    Absolutely loving the "Scottish government lying about how many Care Home Residents it has vaccinated" thought line at the moment.
    So, out of 36,000 Care Home residents in Scotland, only 144 have i) not given consent or ii) were not suitable because of current infection?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Trends continue:


    I've said for a while I'll be happy once positivity is back under 1%. We are fast approaching that. Looks like it's fallen under 2% today which is a dramatic turnaround from what it was recently.

    That testing numbers are holding up while the positives are collapsing is really good news.
    Yes, the positivity figure is a hugely important number psychologically for me. Especially as test continues to stay high.
  • MaxPB said:

    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues

    Lockdown works to get cases down. This is not a surprise, hopefully this time with the vaccination programme we won't see them go back up like last time.
    The big unknown is how much we can release the restrictions without R going over 1. Just schools going back could well do it.
    Best we leave our children uneducated and rotting then.......???......FFS.....
    On 110, 000 and counting fatalities, Johnson is right to be cautious.
    It is not an either or. The evidence shows this.

    French children are in school. They do not have the vaccine like we do. They rejected a full lockdown. Their cases are still dropping. Cases are also dropping in US juristictions that do not have lockdowns or in some cases even mask mandates.

    What you and Urquhart are presenting is a false choice and a false cause and effect model.
    You know that French cases aren't dropping, right?

    They've had 20,000 cases/day for the last month...
    Plus France has a strict curfew doesn't it? Much stricter enforcement than anything we have seen here too.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK cases by specimen date

    image
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues

    In some respects those cases are falling too fast for Johnson's government.
    Err, what? Cases can’t possibly fall too fast. None at all would be best, starting tomorrow.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K population

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  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    edited February 2021
    UK Local R

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  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    edited February 2021

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    Very disappointing to see England's week-on-week decline in vaccination numbers. I think England will need to call in some Scottish experts to help get their vaccination programme back on track.

    Not sure why the snark is necessary. It's only Scotland using the stockpile that has been accumulated.
    Absolutely loving the "Scottish government lying about how many Care Home Residents it has vaccinated" thought line at the moment.
    So, out of 36,000 Care Home residents in Scotland, only 144 have i) not given consent or ii) were not suitable because of current infection?
    There aren't 36,000 older care home resident in long term care in Scotland.



    As at 8:30am on Tuesday 9 February:

    29,908 care home residents (99.7% of residents in older adult care homes and 93% of residents in all care homes)


    Do you think they are lying about vaccinating 29,908 care home residents?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,798
    edited February 2021
    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    Very disappointing to see England's week-on-week decline in vaccination numbers. I think England will need to call in some Scottish experts to help get their vaccination programme back on track.

    Not sure why the snark is necessary. It's only Scotland using the stockpile that has been accumulated.
    Must be having a reaction to all the needless shit chatted about Scotland 2 weeks ago.

    Absolutely loving the "Scottish government lying about how many Care Home Residents it has vaccinated" thought line at the moment.
    The PB vax banter window has now officially shut. Henceforth referring to uncomfortable comparisons will be classified as snark and in bad taste.

    (EU excepted)
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK case summary

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    @Malmesbury what's happening in Rutland? :o
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556

    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues


    In some respects those cases are falling too fast for Johnson's government.
    You're paranoid delusional.

    The idea that there is a nefarious cabal of evil scientists cackling at how they can keep you locked up at home; evil scientists determined to punish ordinary Brits by making them be paid to be at home watching Netflix instead of going to work; evil SAGE ...

    SAGE really aren't SPECTRE.
    The true identity of SAGE will only be revealed when the thyme is right.
    Including the fact that Basil is a secret member of Sage?
    Indeed. Far from being a nefarious cabal, they will offer us all salviation.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123

    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/09/county-council-to-reconsider-cumbria-coal-mine-application

    Cumbria county council has said it will reconsider the planning application for a new coalmine near Whitehaven, which has prompted widespread criticism, in light of new information on UK greenhouse gas targets.

    Morons.

    What the actual fuck? How do the non-idiots make our views known to Cumbria County Council?
    Nobody in authority seems prepared to stand by a rational and balanced decision when under attack from the green lobbyists and activists. If there was, say, a televised debate on this decision the anti-mining side would be annihilated because this mine will reduce net carbon emissions unless the UK is going to abandon infrastructure development (including wind farms) that require steel!
    I have to say, I didn't realise that the objection is to do with the emissions associated with mining rather than objections to mining coal.

    But as you say, it's still completely stupid. Our emissions have fallen because we import lots of goods and the associated CO2 goes against other countries.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK hospitals

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  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,639

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    Very disappointing to see England's week-on-week decline in vaccination numbers. I think England will need to call in some Scottish experts to help get their vaccination programme back on track.

    Not sure why the snark is necessary. It's only Scotland using the stockpile that has been accumulated.
    Absolutely loving the "Scottish government lying about how many Care Home Residents it has vaccinated" thought line at the moment.
    So, out of 36,000 Care Home residents in Scotland, only 144 have i) not given consent or ii) were not suitable because of current infection?
    What is so odd is finding people getting so excited about that 36K figure when it is clearly stated to be an estimate, and then complaining that the resulting figure is accurate to 3sf when really it's 1sf at best (deduct one accurate figure from one estimate a little larger, and ...).

    It's not as if the care homes are all part of the NHS with regular real time central reporting. Indeed, one wonders how accurate the English figure is for that matter.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    RobD said:

    @Malmesbury what's happening in Rutland? :o

    There's an outbreak in a prison there.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK deaths

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  • One in a series of headers

    THE TORIES BIGGEST CHALLENGE AT THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION: BROWN ISN’T BLAIR
    THE TORIES BIGGEST CHALLENGE AT THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION: MILIBAND ISN’T BROWN
    THE TORIES BIGGEST CHALLENGE AT THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION: CORBYN ISN’T MILIBAND
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK R

    From cases

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    From hospitalisations

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  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231

    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/09/county-council-to-reconsider-cumbria-coal-mine-application

    Cumbria county council has said it will reconsider the planning application for a new coalmine near Whitehaven, which has prompted widespread criticism, in light of new information on UK greenhouse gas targets.

    Morons.

    What the actual fuck? How do the non-idiots make our views known to Cumbria County Council?
    Nobody in authority seems prepared to stand by a rational and balanced decision when under attack from the green lobbyists and activists. If there was, say, a televised debate on this decision the anti-mining side would be annihilated because this mine will reduce net carbon emissions unless the UK is going to abandon infrastructure development (including wind farms) that require steel!
    They must be Labour. I refuse to believe a Tory council would behave in this way.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    Age related

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  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    Carnyx said:

    Alistair said:

    RobD said:

    Alistair said:

    Very disappointing to see England's week-on-week decline in vaccination numbers. I think England will need to call in some Scottish experts to help get their vaccination programme back on track.

    Not sure why the snark is necessary. It's only Scotland using the stockpile that has been accumulated.
    Absolutely loving the "Scottish government lying about how many Care Home Residents it has vaccinated" thought line at the moment.
    So, out of 36,000 Care Home residents in Scotland, only 144 have i) not given consent or ii) were not suitable because of current infection?
    What is so odd is finding people getting so excited about that 36K figure when it is clearly stated to be an estimate, and then complaining that the resulting figure is accurate to 3sf when really it's 1sf at best (deduct one accurate figure from one estimate a little larger, and ...).

    It's not as if the care homes are all part of the NHS with regular real time central reporting. Indeed, one wonders how accurate the English figure is for that matter.
    So after accounting for the uncertainties on the various figures it's likely the English and Scottish ones are actually quite similar? If they got there in roughly the same time it doesn't say much for the effort to focus on them in Scotland, does it?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,123



    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/09/county-council-to-reconsider-cumbria-coal-mine-application

    Cumbria county council has said it will reconsider the planning application for a new coalmine near Whitehaven, which has prompted widespread criticism, in light of new information on UK greenhouse gas targets.

    Morons.

    What the actual fuck? How do the non-idiots make our views known to Cumbria County Council?
    Nobody in authority seems prepared to stand by a rational and balanced decision when under attack from the green lobbyists and activists. If there was, say, a televised debate on this decision the anti-mining side would be annihilated because this mine will reduce net carbon emissions unless the UK is going to abandon infrastructure development (including wind farms) that require steel!
    They must be Labour. I refuse to believe a Tory council would behave in this way.
    It's very hung:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumbria_County_Council
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    UK vaccinations

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  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231

    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues


    In some respects those cases are falling too fast for Johnson's government.
    You're paranoid delusional.

    The idea that there is a nefarious cabal of evil scientists cackling at how they can keep you locked up at home; evil scientists determined to punish ordinary Brits by making them be paid to be at home watching Netflix instead of going to work; evil SAGE ...

    SAGE really aren't SPECTRE.
    The true identity of SAGE will only be revealed when the thyme is right.
    Including the fact that Basil is a secret member of Sage?
    Indeed. Far from being a nefarious cabal, they will offer us all salviation.
    I don't know what you people think another round of ridiculous puns is going to achive.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Sandpit said:

    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues

    In some respects those cases are falling too fast for Johnson's government.
    Err, what? Cases can’t possibly fall too fast. None at all would be best, starting tomorrow.
    For us, yes.

    But look at the Johnson government. Look at what it does, not what it says. It doesn;t want to move, really. IF it did, those kids would be in school. They aren't. They can be left to rot. Even though there's a stack of good news around.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823

    Sandpit said:

    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues

    In some respects those cases are falling too fast for Johnson's government.
    Err, what? Cases can’t possibly fall too fast. None at all would be best, starting tomorrow.
    For us, yes.

    But look at the Johnson government. Look at what it does, not what it says. It doesn;t want to move, really. IF it did, those kids would be in school. They aren't. They can be left to rot. Even though there's a stack of good news around.

    The plan has never been for schools to reopen this early, has it?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues


    In some respects those cases are falling too fast for Johnson's government.
    You're paranoid delusional.

    The idea that there is a nefarious cabal of evil scientists cackling at how they can keep you locked up at home; evil scientists determined to punish ordinary Brits by making them be paid to be at home watching Netflix instead of going to work; evil SAGE ...

    SAGE really aren't SPECTRE.
    The true identity of SAGE will only be revealed when the thyme is right.
    You plainly know your onions.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,889
    Hancock seems to have got pelters from the left over having the temerity to suggest asylum seekers from red zone countries should be quarantineds then sent back and flak from the right over liking lockdown too much.

    Personally I think he's doing a good job now.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314
    RobD said:

    @Malmesbury what's happening in Rutland? :o

    A combination of a prison outbreak and a tiny denominator (population 36k for the county).

    It did worry me the other night, as my parents live here and they had one of the lowest rates in the country until a week ago!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,355

    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues

    Still sobering that another 1000+ deaths.
    Tuesday has always been effectively 3 days of deaths with the lack of them aggregated over the weekend. 7 day average still down 25%. That is the number to focus on.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    DougSeal said:

    RobD said:

    @Malmesbury what's happening in Rutland? :o

    There's an outbreak in a prison there.
    It's always a good idea to bear in mind that a small outbreak in a relatively "quiet" area will cause a big local R - so read the local R sheet with reference to the Cases and Scaled Cases....
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,231
    tlg86 said:



    tlg86 said:

    https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/feb/09/county-council-to-reconsider-cumbria-coal-mine-application

    Cumbria county council has said it will reconsider the planning application for a new coalmine near Whitehaven, which has prompted widespread criticism, in light of new information on UK greenhouse gas targets.

    Morons.

    What the actual fuck? How do the non-idiots make our views known to Cumbria County Council?
    Nobody in authority seems prepared to stand by a rational and balanced decision when under attack from the green lobbyists and activists. If there was, say, a televised debate on this decision the anti-mining side would be annihilated because this mine will reduce net carbon emissions unless the UK is going to abandon infrastructure development (including wind farms) that require steel!
    They must be Labour. I refuse to believe a Tory council would behave in this way.
    It's very hung:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cumbria_County_Council
    Lib Lab coalition. No surprise there.
  • I reckon 20% on Starmer being next PM is very generous. I'd put it at around 50%, with the proviso that Covid is over as a health issue, though not an economic one.

    Corbyn has gone. Brexit is done - the outcome will still be an issue, but not Brexit itself. The far, far left are either leaving Labour or being marginalised. Because of Covid, neither Starmer nor his team have had a decent hearing yet on anything other than the crisis. Starmer is no fool: policy development is well under way. The Tories' support is flattered by the pandemic and boosted by vaccination; it's not that deep, and once the health crisis is over the nation will be less inclined to give the government the benefit of the doubt. Tories have been in power a long time. And if the Shadow Cabinet has weaknesses, these are no greater, and I would suggest less, than those in the actual Cabinet. Oh, and people like JRM wittering on about 'happy fish' will lose the Tories votes. Oh, and Boris's appeal will wear a bit thin by 2024.

    I'm almost persuading myself that Starmer has a better than evens chance of next PM.

    It's simple really.
    The public are responding very rationally to events that affect them. Good on the public.
    When the government does something good (lockdown 1, furlough, vaccines) their rating goes up.
    When the government makes a bish of things (not sacking Dom, exam results, Christmas) their rating goes down.

    If the lead is 43-38, the Conservatives stay in power. If it's 41-40, they don't, because all the other parties hate them.

    So the question is this;
    Will the government do more good things or bad things in the next three years?
    Now look at the cabinet, and ask yourself again.
    Will the government do more good things or bad things in the next three years?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,823
    Pulpstar said:

    Hancock seems to have got pelters from the left over having the temerity to suggest asylum seekers from red zone countries should be quarantineds then sent back and flak from the right over liking lockdown too much.

    Personally I think he's doing a good job now.

    People are suggesting asylum seekers should be exempt from quarantine? Perhaps they don't pay, but they should still have to do it.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues

    In some respects those cases are falling too fast for Johnson's government.
    Err, what? Cases can’t possibly fall too fast. None at all would be best, starting tomorrow.
    For us, yes.

    But look at the Johnson government. Look at what it does, not what it says. It doesn;t want to move, really. IF it did, those kids would be in school. They aren't. They can be left to rot. Even though there's a stack of good news around.

    The plan has never been for schools to reopen this early, has it?
    I will leave you to draw your own conclusions.

    I know I am a nuisance on this but the way our young people have been treated infuriates me. I also deal with some of the young people at my place of work and they are going through a horrible, horrible time because of lockdown.

    We are way past the point where the young have sacrificed enough for the old in this matter. Way past the point. So far past it its untrue.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,153

    One in a series of headers

    THE TORIES BIGGEST CHALLENGE AT THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION: BROWN ISN’T BLAIR
    THE TORIES BIGGEST CHALLENGE AT THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION: MILIBAND ISN’T BROWN
    THE TORIES BIGGEST CHALLENGE AT THE NEXT GENERAL ELECTION: CORBYN ISN’T MILIBAND

    LOL!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,528

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues

    In some respects those cases are falling too fast for Johnson's government.
    Err, what? Cases can’t possibly fall too fast. None at all would be best, starting tomorrow.
    For us, yes.

    But look at the Johnson government. Look at what it does, not what it says. It doesn;t want to move, really. IF it did, those kids would be in school. They aren't. They can be left to rot. Even though there's a stack of good news around.

    The plan has never been for schools to reopen this early, has it?
    I will leave you to draw your own conclusions.

    I know I am a nuisance on this but the way our young people have been treated infuriates me. I also deal with some of the young people at my place of work and they are going through a horrible, horrible time because of lockdown.

    We are way past the point where the young have sacrificed enough for the old in this matter. Way past the point. So far past it its untrue.
    Which is why we have for a rapid vaccination scheme. Get everyone immunised and have the economy fully reopened. No messing about with half life style reopenings with social distancing or any of that rubbish we never want to see again.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 49,586
    edited February 2021
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Hancock seems to have got pelters from the left over having the temerity to suggest asylum seekers from red zone countries should be quarantineds then sent back and flak from the right over liking lockdown too much.

    Personally I think he's doing a good job now.

    People are suggesting asylum seekers should be exempt from quarantine? Perhaps they don't pay, but they should still have to do it.
    I foresaw this. It's not about asylum seekers - there are not very many of those....

    Quarantine on entry will require

    - Control over entry. No more waving people through etc.
    - Stopping illegal immigration via all the interesting routes.
    - Impose massive costs on entry

    So illegal immigration and low skill/wage immigration will be shutdown completely, if the policy enforced.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited February 2021
    IshmaelZ said:

    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues


    In some respects those cases are falling too fast for Johnson's government.
    You're paranoid delusional.

    The idea that there is a nefarious cabal of evil scientists cackling at how they can keep you locked up at home; evil scientists determined to punish ordinary Brits by making them be paid to be at home watching Netflix instead of going to work; evil SAGE ...

    SAGE really aren't SPECTRE.
    The true identity of SAGE will only be revealed when the thyme is right.
    You plainly know your onions.
    It's all quite alliumentary really: most people will be cepable of mastering the basics.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    MaxPB said:

    RobD said:

    Sandpit said:

    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues

    In some respects those cases are falling too fast for Johnson's government.
    Err, what? Cases can’t possibly fall too fast. None at all would be best, starting tomorrow.
    For us, yes.

    But look at the Johnson government. Look at what it does, not what it says. It doesn;t want to move, really. IF it did, those kids would be in school. They aren't. They can be left to rot. Even though there's a stack of good news around.

    The plan has never been for schools to reopen this early, has it?
    I will leave you to draw your own conclusions.

    I know I am a nuisance on this but the way our young people have been treated infuriates me. I also deal with some of the young people at my place of work and they are going through a horrible, horrible time because of lockdown.

    We are way past the point where the young have sacrificed enough for the old in this matter. Way past the point. So far past it its untrue.
    Which is why we have for a rapid vaccination scheme. Get everyone immunised and have the economy fully reopened. No messing about with half life style reopenings with social distancing or any of that rubbish we never want to see again.
    I am 100% support but I fear our government and their advisors are not.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,314

    Sandpit said:

    12,364 cases, the big downward trend continues

    In some respects those cases are falling too fast for Johnson's government.
    Err, what? Cases can’t possibly fall too fast. None at all would be best, starting tomorrow.
    For us, yes.

    But look at the Johnson government. Look at what it does, not what it says. It doesn;t want to move, really. IF it did, those kids would be in school. They aren't. They can be left to rot. Even though there's a stack of good news around.

    You think the government are enjoying a pandemic, really?

    They’ve put an awful lot of effort into the vaccine response, for people who like pandemics.

    They’re also borrowing tens of billions a month to prop up the economy, money which will have at some point to be paid back with interest.
This discussion has been closed.