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Home or Abroad? – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited February 2021 in General
imageHome or Abroad? – politicalbetting.com

The desire (expressed by some – the WHO, for instance) for Britain to give away vaccines to other countries before we have vaccinated our own population is politically insane and, frankly, immoral. There: I’ve said it. Call me selfish, if you will. But let me explain why I say this.

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Comments

  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    First. And quite right. Why this even has to be said is completely beyond me.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    "When it has vaccinated or obtained doses for all its population, then it can – and should – help other countries who are in a less fortunate position."

    Should that - for selfish, fence-mending reasons - be the EU we help?

    Or should we instead help developing countries? Luxembourg or Libreville? Spain - or Port of Spain?

    Arguably, the EU countries are having a harder time from Covid than many developing countries, through age profile or - frankly, who knows why. Perhaps our surplus vaccines could do most good there, in terms of alleviating death and suffering. But those developing countries have not had any chance to splash out billions to develop vaccine facilities. Germany or France or Netherlands have had a choice - but have not seen fit to put out the billions that the UK/USA have done.

    It's Aesop's The Ant and the Grasshopper made very real.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    "When it has vaccinated or obtained doses for all its population, then it can – and should – help other countries who are in a less fortunate position."

    Should that - for selfish, fence-mending reasons - be the EU we help?

    Or should we instead help developing countries? Luxembourg or Libreville? Spain - or Port of Spain?

    Arguably, the EU countries are having a harder time from Covid than many developing countries, through age profile or - frankly, who knows why. Perhaps our surplus vaccines could do most good there, in terms of alleviating death and suffering. But those developing countries have not had any chance to splash out billions to develop vaccine facilities. Germany or France or Netherlands have had a choice - but have not seen fit to put out the billions that the UK/USA have done.

    It's Aesop's The Ant and the Grasshopper made very real.

    We seem obsessed by this question of helping the EU. Realistically, by the point at which everyone in the UK is covered (say end May to get 50 million adults both doses), then the EU will be receiving big shipments of vaccines and won't need any of ours.

    So, it's not clear to me why we seem to be obsessing over a scenario which is unlikely to actually happen.
  • This really ought to go without saying. Well said Cyclefree.

    Quite frankly I think anyone who says otherwise is likely trolling.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,958
    rcs1000 said:

    "When it has vaccinated or obtained doses for all its population, then it can – and should – help other countries who are in a less fortunate position."

    Should that - for selfish, fence-mending reasons - be the EU we help?

    Or should we instead help developing countries? Luxembourg or Libreville? Spain - or Port of Spain?

    Arguably, the EU countries are having a harder time from Covid than many developing countries, through age profile or - frankly, who knows why. Perhaps our surplus vaccines could do most good there, in terms of alleviating death and suffering. But those developing countries have not had any chance to splash out billions to develop vaccine facilities. Germany or France or Netherlands have had a choice - but have not seen fit to put out the billions that the UK/USA have done.

    It's Aesop's The Ant and the Grasshopper made very real.

    We seem obsessed by this question of helping the EU. Realistically, by the point at which everyone in the UK is covered (say end May to get 50 million adults both doses), then the EU will be receiving big shipments of vaccines and won't need any of ours.

    So, it's not clear to me why we seem to be obsessing over a scenario which is unlikely to actually happen.
    Except, they might prefer the AZ vaccine to the Chinese or Russian jabs?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771

    rcs1000 said:

    "When it has vaccinated or obtained doses for all its population, then it can – and should – help other countries who are in a less fortunate position."

    Should that - for selfish, fence-mending reasons - be the EU we help?

    Or should we instead help developing countries? Luxembourg or Libreville? Spain - or Port of Spain?

    Arguably, the EU countries are having a harder time from Covid than many developing countries, through age profile or - frankly, who knows why. Perhaps our surplus vaccines could do most good there, in terms of alleviating death and suffering. But those developing countries have not had any chance to splash out billions to develop vaccine facilities. Germany or France or Netherlands have had a choice - but have not seen fit to put out the billions that the UK/USA have done.

    It's Aesop's The Ant and the Grasshopper made very real.

    We seem obsessed by this question of helping the EU. Realistically, by the point at which everyone in the UK is covered (say end May to get 50 million adults both doses), then the EU will be receiving big shipments of vaccines and won't need any of ours.

    So, it's not clear to me why we seem to be obsessing over a scenario which is unlikely to actually happen.
    Except, they might prefer the AZ vaccine to the Chinese or Russian jabs?
    Pfizer just increased their estimate of how much vaccine they'd produce this year to two billion dollars.

    The EU has many problems. But it also has some of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies, and Pfizer has licensed Novartis and Sanofi to produce their vaccine. CureVac will be available from May, or maybe even earlier, and Bayer has signed up to manufacture that under license too.

    Plus there's AstraZeneca and others.

    The world is going to be swimming in vaccines in three months time.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,087
    edited February 2021
    7th.

    Like .. er .. Serbia.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,087
    edited February 2021
    Endillion said:

    First. And quite right. Why this even has to be said is completely beyond me.

    I don't recall an Endillion in LOTR or the Silmarillion.

    I am involuntary nerd having read it a number of times, but obvs not quite so rabbithole-bound as some.

    I cede no 1 on that subject with relief.

    Though I recall it was very nearly St Endellion the sand-buried "the very name sounds like a ring of bells" church that was loved by the old High Church queen Betjeman.

    Alternative spelling?
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,087
    edited February 2021
    I draw three nuggets, which I agree mark the bounds of any altruism vaccines-to-elsewhere policy.

    1 - before we have vaccinated our own population is politically insane and, frankly, immoral
    2 - especially the young, who have lost jobs, seen businesses damaged, sometimes beyond repair, lost savings, lost opportunities
    3 - When it has vaccinated or obtained doses for all its population, then it can – and should – help other countries who are in a less fortunate position

    I would modify 2. Huge numbers now do education until 21-25 now, so "young and fancy free" needs to extend to mid or late 20s. Also matches the +10 years of life expectancy and later retirement age they have.

    I did the sponsored-through-uni-thin-sandwich thing, which helped hugely, but cost me all my summer breaks except for pro-rate 13 days paid holiday. I still miss them.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    MattW said:

    I draw three nuggets, which I agree mark the bounds of any altruism vaccines-to-elsewhere policy.

    1 - before we have vaccinated our own population is politically insane and, frankly, immoral
    2 - especially the young, who have lost jobs, seen businesses damaged, sometimes beyond repair, lost savings, lost opportunities
    3 - When it has vaccinated or obtained doses for all its population, then it can – and should – help other countries who are in a less fortunate position

    I would modify 2. Huge numbers now do education until 21-25 now, so "young and fancy free" needs to extend to mid or late 20s. Also matches the +10 years of life expectancy and later retirement age they have.

    I did the sponsored-through-uni-thin-sandwich thing, which helped hugely, but cost me all my summer breaks except for pro-rate 13 days paid holiday. I still miss them.

    VM for you.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    Its a tricky one and comes down to whether all lives are equal...? I'm of the opinion the vaccine situation is like two wealthy fat (white) men arguing over a piece of cake while a poor hungry person watches from a distance..
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960

    Its a tricky one and comes down to whether all lives are equal...? I'm of the opinion the vaccine situation is like two wealthy fat (white) men arguing over a piece of cake while a poor hungry person watches from a distance..

    I think that's a ludicrous analogy. If for no other reason than the pandemic has generally resulted in far higher death rates in wealthy countries than in developing countries.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960
    MattW said:

    Endillion said:

    First. And quite right. Why this even has to be said is completely beyond me.

    I don't recall an Endillion in LOTR or the Silmarillion.

    I am involuntary nerd having read it a number of times, but obvs not quite so rabbithole-bound as some.

    I cede no 1 on that subject with relief.

    Though I recall it was very nearly St Endellion the sand-buried "the very name sounds like a ring of bells" church that was loved by the old High Church queen Betjeman.

    Alternative spelling?
    There isn't one. Truth is, I've been using this online handle for so long I no longer even remember where it came from. I was somewhat put out when David Cameron gave his daughter a very similar middle name, which I then learned was some long-dead Cornish saint, but obviously not enough to pick out a new persona.
  • swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    Endillion said:

    Its a tricky one and comes down to whether all lives are equal...? I'm of the opinion the vaccine situation is like two wealthy fat (white) men arguing over a piece of cake while a poor hungry person watches from a distance..

    I think that's a ludicrous analogy. If for no other reason than the pandemic has generally resulted in far higher death rates in wealthy countries than in developing countries.
    The UK has 350 million vaccines on order...thats a lot of cake.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960

    Endillion said:

    Its a tricky one and comes down to whether all lives are equal...? I'm of the opinion the vaccine situation is like two wealthy fat (white) men arguing over a piece of cake while a poor hungry person watches from a distance..

    I think that's a ludicrous analogy. If for no other reason than the pandemic has generally resulted in far higher death rates in wealthy countries than in developing countries.
    The UK has 350 million vaccines on order...thats a lot of cake.
    Yes, but we're not proposing to give every UK citizen 5 doses. The excess (beyond what we need for topups later in 2021) will all ultimately go to other countries. The question here is just one of prioritisation.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 18,087

    Its a tricky one and comes down to whether all lives are equal...? I'm of the opinion the vaccine situation is like two wealthy fat (white) men arguing over a piece of cake while a poor hungry person watches from a distance..

    Who are these 2 fat people, why do you think they are arguing, and why do you think they are men?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    No thanks to all the holidaymaking covidiots:

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/coronavirus-latest-dubai-to-cut-mall-and-venue-capacity-1.1143347

    Bars closed in Dubai from today, for the month of February, stricter capacity limits introduced for restaurants, malls and cinemas.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,771
    Sandpit said:

    No thanks to all the holidaymaking covidiots:

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/coronavirus-latest-dubai-to-cut-mall-and-venue-capacity-1.1143347

    Bars closed in Dubai from today, for the month of February, stricter capacity limits introduced for restaurants, malls and cinemas.

    Can I still get a drink but the pool at the Madinat Jumeirah?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    No thanks to all the holidaymaking covidiots:

    https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/coronavirus-latest-dubai-to-cut-mall-and-venue-capacity-1.1143347

    Bars closed in Dubai from today, for the month of February, stricter capacity limits introduced for restaurants, malls and cinemas.

    Can I still get a drink but the pool at the Madinat Jumeirah?
    Apart from the fact you're in LA, probably yes.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,787
    The wait for vaccines is becoming a political issue in New Zealand too.
    https://twitter.com/JudithCollinsMP/status/1356444161969250306
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    Some in Whitehall are increasingly bullish that the whole UK population will may have been first jabbed by beginning of May:

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-some-in-whitehall-think-every-adult-could-be-offered-a-covid-jab-by-may-12205873

    Does anyone know why Scotland is lagging?
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,280
    "Labour's shadow home secretary Nick Thomas-Symonds said: "Ministers have knowingly left the UK border open and potentially exposed people to new strains of the virus, in direct contradiction of their own Government scientists' advice. "This puts the gains of the vaccine at risk, with disastrous consequences for people's lives.""

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-ministers-accused-of-being-reckless-over-sage-variant-warning-12206114
  • MysticroseMysticrose Posts: 4,688
    edited February 2021
    Andy_JS said:

    "Labour's shadow home secretary Nick Thomas-Symonds said: "Ministers have knowingly left the UK border open and potentially exposed people to new strains of the virus, in direct contradiction of their own Government scientists' advice. "This puts the gains of the vaccine at risk, with disastrous consequences for people's lives.""

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-ministers-accused-of-being-reckless-over-sage-variant-warning-12206114

    Yeah and it is the lead in today's Times.

    I don't think locking our borders is the right way forward now. It might have been a year ago. The key to this is vaccination and on that the Government are on a roll.

    Reports are that the 2nd jab may even include a tweak to help zap the SA variant better.

    It really is all about vaccination.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,960

    Some in Whitehall are increasingly bullish that the whole UK population will may have been first jabbed by beginning of May:

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-some-in-whitehall-think-every-adult-could-be-offered-a-covid-jab-by-may-12205873

    Does anyone know why Scotland is lagging?

    Force of habit.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,280

    Andy_JS said:

    "Labour's shadow home secretary Nick Thomas-Symonds said: "Ministers have knowingly left the UK border open and potentially exposed people to new strains of the virus, in direct contradiction of their own Government scientists' advice. "This puts the gains of the vaccine at risk, with disastrous consequences for people's lives.""

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-ministers-accused-of-being-reckless-over-sage-variant-warning-12206114

    Yeah and it is the lead in today's Times.

    I don't think locking our borders is the right way forward now. It might have been a year ago. The key to this is vaccination and on that the Government are on a roll.

    Reports are that the 2nd jab may even include a tweak to help zap the SA variant better.

    It really is all about vaccination.
    Why not close the borders anyway, just to be safe?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    A very good header. It's imperative we all get vaxxed
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068

    rcs1000 said:

    "When it has vaccinated or obtained doses for all its population, then it can – and should – help other countries who are in a less fortunate position."

    Should that - for selfish, fence-mending reasons - be the EU we help?

    Or should we instead help developing countries? Luxembourg or Libreville? Spain - or Port of Spain?

    Arguably, the EU countries are having a harder time from Covid than many developing countries, through age profile or - frankly, who knows why. Perhaps our surplus vaccines could do most good there, in terms of alleviating death and suffering. But those developing countries have not had any chance to splash out billions to develop vaccine facilities. Germany or France or Netherlands have had a choice - but have not seen fit to put out the billions that the UK/USA have done.

    It's Aesop's The Ant and the Grasshopper made very real.

    We seem obsessed by this question of helping the EU. Realistically, by the point at which everyone in the UK is covered (say end May to get 50 million adults both doses), then the EU will be receiving big shipments of vaccines and won't need any of ours.

    So, it's not clear to me why we seem to be obsessing over a scenario which is unlikely to actually happen.
    Except, they might prefer the AZ vaccine to the Chinese or Russian jabs?
    Not very likely, as the EU order book for delivery this year is over 2 billion doses. The GSK Sanofi one flopped, but the rest look good.

    Pfizer 600 million
    Sanofi-GSK 300 million
    J and J 400 million
    CureVac 405 million
    Moderna 160 million
    Novavax 200 million
    Valneva 60 million

    Their problem will mostly be infrastructure to roll out vaccinations, and antivaxxing rather than supply shortages, perhaps as soon as Easter. They too will have plenty to give away.

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Vaccinating the entire British/European/American/rich country population before releasing vaccines to other countries would lead to hundreds of thousands if not millions of additional deaths.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Andy_JS said:

    "Labour's shadow home secretary Nick Thomas-Symonds said: "Ministers have knowingly left the UK border open and potentially exposed people to new strains of the virus, in direct contradiction of their own Government scientists' advice. "This puts the gains of the vaccine at risk, with disastrous consequences for people's lives.""

    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-ministers-accused-of-being-reckless-over-sage-variant-warning-12206114

    Yeah and it is the lead in today's Times.

    I don't think locking our borders is the right way forward now. It might have been a year ago. The key to this is vaccination and on that the Government are on a roll.

    Reports are that the 2nd jab may even include a tweak to help zap the SA variant better.

    It really is all about vaccination.
    That might have been true before we started seeing mutations from Brazil and South Africa, but we are now in the position where a vaccine resistant mutation could get out there, setting back the programme by months.

    Safest to close the borders and vaccinate everyone inside, who can then continue life pretty much as usual, but with strict controls on those entering and leaving the country.

    If we include RoI and the many islands surrounding the UK (Channel Islands, IoM etc) in the vaccine scheme, we can all holiday inside the bubble this summer, once the case numbers come down.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,881
    Cyclefree also seems to have misunderstood the purpose of covax which by design is aiming to make access to vaccines more equitable and speed up delivery to developing countries. In other words doing the opposite of what she proposes.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    edited February 2021
    MattW said:

    Endillion said:

    First. And quite right. Why this even has to be said is completely beyond me.

    I don't recall an Endillion in LOTR or the Silmarillion.

    I am involuntary nerd having read it a number of times, but obvs not quite so rabbithole-bound as some.

    I cede no 1 on that subject with relief.

    Though I recall it was very nearly St Endellion the sand-buried "the very name sounds like a ring of bells" church that was loved by the old High Church queen Betjeman.

    Alternative spelling?
    It’s a parish on the north coast of Cornwall? I was there in July; a beautiful spot.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    CNN) - They were there to "Stop the Steal" and to keep the President they revered in office, yet records show that some of the rioters who stormed the US Capitol did not vote in the very election they were protesting.

    Many involved in the insurrection professed to be motivated by patriotism, falsely declaring that Trump was the rightful winner of the election. Yet at least eight of the people who are now facing criminal charges for their involvement in the events at the Capitol did not vote in the November 2020 presidential election, according to an analysis of voting records from the states where protestors were arrested and those states where public records show they have lived.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751

    "When it has vaccinated or obtained doses for all its population, then it can – and should – help other countries who are in a less fortunate position."

    Should that - for selfish, fence-mending reasons - be the EU we help?

    Or should we instead help developing countries? Luxembourg or Libreville? Spain - or Port of Spain?

    Arguably, the EU countries are having a harder time from Covid than many developing countries, through age profile or - frankly, who knows why. Perhaps our surplus vaccines could do most good there, in terms of alleviating death and suffering. But those developing countries have not had any chance to splash out billions to develop vaccine facilities. Germany or France or Netherlands have had a choice - but have not seen fit to put out the billions that the UK/USA have done.

    It's Aesop's The Ant and the Grasshopper made very real.

    Do you actually think the EU would be grateful for us giving them the vaccines after all this?

    More likely they would think we were trolling them over the recent fiasco.
  • Good morning, everyone.

    Boring, but I agree entirely, Miss Cyclefree.

    Vaccinate the UK first, then the Republic of Ireland, then look to elsewhere (the Commonwealth would be a good start, perhaps).
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited February 2021
    Agree 100%. The CI & IOM are included in the U.K. vaccine procurement and get a population proportionate share - which in Guernsey’s case is 0.1% of the total. Gibraltar is as well (and has done many orders of magnitude more jabs proportionately than Spain) - not sure about the other OTs.

    Edit - yes they are : https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9021/
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751

    Agree 100%. The CI & IOM are included in the U.K. vaccine procurement and get a population proportionate share - which in Guernsey’s case is 0.1% of the total. Gibraltar is as well (and has done many orders of magnitude more jabs than Spain) - not sure about the other OTs.

    Given there are only what, 30-40,000 people in Gib, that’s a pretty damning stat on its own.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    ydoethur said:

    Agree 100%. The CI & IOM are included in the U.K. vaccine procurement and get a population proportionate share - which in Guernsey’s case is 0.1% of the total. Gibraltar is as well (and has done many orders of magnitude more jabs than Spain) - not sure about the other OTs.

    Given there are only what, 30-40,000 people in Gib, that’s a pretty damning stat on its own.
    33k according to the Wiki. Isn't the issue with Gibraltar, that thousands of people live in Spain but work on the Rock? Once they've vaccinated the local population, they'd be as well vaccinating everyone who regularly visits too.
  • ydoethur said:

    Agree 100%. The CI & IOM are included in the U.K. vaccine procurement and get a population proportionate share - which in Guernsey’s case is 0.1% of the total. Gibraltar is as well (and has done many orders of magnitude more jabs than Spain) - not sure about the other OTs.

    Given there are only what, 30-40,000 people in Gib, that’s a pretty damning stat on its own.
    I meant proportionately - they’ve done 38% of their population with first jabs and are starting on second. That’s more than 10x Spain...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,540
    edited February 2021
    Fair enough - suspend the CTA with the Republic until their jab rate similar- this is a Public Health issue.

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1355811871216066560?s=20
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751

    ydoethur said:

    Agree 100%. The CI & IOM are included in the U.K. vaccine procurement and get a population proportionate share - which in Guernsey’s case is 0.1% of the total. Gibraltar is as well (and has done many orders of magnitude more jabs than Spain) - not sure about the other OTs.

    Given there are only what, 30-40,000 people in Gib, that’s a pretty damning stat on its own.
    I meant proportionately - they’ve done 38% of their population with first jabs and are starting on second. That’s more than 10x Spain...
    Well, that’s a bit better. Still not exactly a great advert for Spain’s vaccination programme though.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751

    Fair enough - suspend the CTA with the Republic until their jab rate similar- this is a Public Health issue.

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1355811871216066560?s=20

    Ummm...in light of the news that there’s already threats of violence at Northern Ireland’s ports, plus the reaction when Herself tried to shut the border to pretend she knew what she was doing stabilise the vaccine situation I have to say I think that would be a very bad idea.

    In any case, aren’t we all looking at this the wrong way? Once we have been vaccinated, we don’t have to worry overmuch about travel restrictions, etc. Our population won’t be at significant risk any more.

    Of course, that doesn’t demonstrate we can’t carry it, but that means it’s not the UK that would need to shut the border.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Fair enough - suspend the CTA with the Republic until their jab rate similar- this is a Public Health issue.

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1355811871216066560?s=20

    I'm sure he will continue to be dismissive in public for a few months more, expressing EU solidarity - until the vaccines are actually offered and available, at which point he'll bite the UK's hand off for them.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,263
    rkrkrk said:

    Cyclefree also seems to have misunderstood the purpose of covax which by design is aiming to make access to vaccines more equitable and speed up delivery to developing countries. In other words doing the opposite of what she proposes.

    Realistically I think every Government is going to take the same line - I've not the slightest doubt that Starmer would. But I don't like it myself - the idea that teenager X in one country is prioritised over elderly person Y who happens to live over the border just feels wrong. I'm having a vaccination today, and feel personally relieved but also a little ashamed - it's obvious that there are others across the borders who need it more. As a country I think that combination of feelings is right, and we should start helping others at the point where we genuinely feel that we've got the pandmeic firmly under control, rather than wait till we've reached the last 18-year-old.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 11,059
    As I was mentioning last night, the very sharp decline in South Africa is for me the most remarkable and puzzling.
  • guybrushguybrush Posts: 234
    Good header. Frankly, I think the WHO's lost all authority on the subject of morality. When it should have been instigating travel bans, it was sucking up to the CCP, telling us racism was a bigger threat that Corona, and dragging its feet in declaring a pandemic. How many thousands of lives must that have cost?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,718

    Fair enough - suspend the CTA with the Republic until their jab rate similar- this is a Public Health issue.

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1355811871216066560?s=20

    Bit difficult that, given how porous the N. Irish border is. Although I see food imports have been partially stopped, due to security concerns.

    I'm inclined to agree with Ms Cyclefree; as someone else said it's a bit like putting on your own oxygen mask first in an aircraft.
    There are two aspects to the future, IMHO, anyway. One is that we are probably going to have to keep vaccinating; it isn't going to be like mumps or meningitis; one or two doses and you're fine for evermore. It's going to be more like influenza where either the protection itself doesn't last or the virus mutates and 2021's vaccination doesn't protect against 2023's (let us hope) strain. So the companies are going to have to devote massive resources to coronavirus vaccines.
    That raises the question of the future of Big Pharma itself. If much of it's energies are going to be spent on coronavirus vaccines, how is the industry to be funded, and what about other diseases and conditions? And we in the West can buy, or subsidise, vaccines for, for example, Sub-Saharan Africa for now, but for how long?
  • ydoethur said:

    Fair enough - suspend the CTA with the Republic until their jab rate similar- this is a Public Health issue.

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1355811871216066560?s=20

    Ummm...in light of the news that there’s already threats of violence at Northern Ireland’s ports, plus the reaction when Herself tried to shut the border to pretend she knew what she was doing stabilise the vaccine situation I have to say I think that would be a very bad idea.

    In any case, aren’t we all looking at this the wrong way? Once we have been vaccinated, we don’t have to worry overmuch about travel restrictions, etc. Our population won’t be at significant risk any more.

    Of course, that doesn’t demonstrate we can’t carry it, but that means it’s not the UK that would need to shut the border.
    With increasing numbers of variant strains I suspect border controls of some description will stay in place for some time. Another issue is very few countries are doing adequate genomic testing to identify them - hence the importance of suppressing COVID full stop. I don’t see why we should share open borders with a government that prioritises “EU solidarity” (sic) over public health.
  • Sandpit said:

    Fair enough - suspend the CTA with the Republic until their jab rate similar- this is a Public Health issue.

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1355811871216066560?s=20

    I'm sure he will continue to be dismissive in public for a few months more, expressing EU solidarity - until the vaccines are actually offered and available, at which point he'll bite the UK's hand off for them.
    Day six of PB Vaccinationalism.

    We must hoard our jabs for ourselves with specific exceptions, and only if those exceptions grovel sufficiently.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068
    guybrush said:

    Good header. Frankly, I think the WHO's lost all authority on the subject of morality. When it should have been instigating travel bans, it was sucking up to the CCP, telling us racism was a bigger threat that Corona, and dragging its feet in declaring a pandemic. How many thousands of lives must that have cost?

    By definition pandemic is disease everywhere. It cannot be declared so until it is!
  • Mr. Divvie, using jabs isn't the same as hoarding them.

    By definition, when they're used, that vaccine dose is gone.

    Hoarding them is what the SNP appears to be doing with their stockpiles.
  • Mr. Divvie, using jabs isn't the same as hoarding them.

    By definition, when they're used, that vaccine dose is gone.

    Hoarding them is what the SNP appears to be doing with their stockpiles.

    How can you know that? Releasing numbers of vaccine stocks would be a breach of national security according to HMG.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614

    Mr. Divvie, using jabs isn't the same as hoarding them.

    By definition, when they're used, that vaccine dose is gone.

    Hoarding them is what the SNP appears to be doing with their stockpiles.

    How can you know that? Releasing numbers of vaccine stocks would be a breach of national security according to HMG.
    There's no UK vaccine stocks, except in Scotland.

    The sensitive numbers are the future deliveries, for reasons that should be apparent from the last week's news.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    The only sensible vaccine policy is to vaccinate the whole (as near as possible) population in an area / country. Doing 60% or 50% will protect that cohort but the virus runs free to mutate and negate the protection to the vaccinated susceptible part of the population in ghe unvaccinated.
    You have to do the whole not a part of the population.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083

    rkrkrk said:

    Cyclefree also seems to have misunderstood the purpose of covax which by design is aiming to make access to vaccines more equitable and speed up delivery to developing countries. In other words doing the opposite of what she proposes.

    Realistically I think every Government is going to take the same line - I've not the slightest doubt that Starmer would. But I don't like it myself - the idea that teenager X in one country is prioritised over elderly person Y who happens to live over the border just feels wrong. I'm having a vaccination today, and feel personally relieved but also a little ashamed - it's obvious that there are others across the borders who need it more. As a country I think that combination of feelings is right, and we should start helping others at the point where we genuinely feel that we've got the pandmeic firmly under control, rather than wait till we've reached the last 18-year-old.
    The counter-argument is that so much in our politics and economics gives the impression that only the interests of the boomer and older generations really matter, and the virus crisis has fuelled that sense of grievance further.

    Many of the young feel that society is fixed against them - the enthusiasm with which a previously unpolitical person like by mid-20s nephew has embraced the Reddit ‘take down Wall Street’ investing mania has surprised me.

    We do need to manage our vaccination programme with the object of getting everyone in our society done as a priority.

    There is also a utilitarian argument that getting some of the world’s economic units back functioning normally earlier is more optimal for the global economy as a whole than keeping lockdowns everywhere while the whole world is only partly vaccinated.
  • Mr. Divvie, using jabs isn't the same as hoarding them.

    By definition, when they're used, that vaccine dose is gone.

    Hoarding them is what the SNP appears to be doing with their stockpiles.

    How can you know that? Releasing numbers of vaccine stocks would be a breach of national security according to HMG.
    No.

    Again obfuscation.

    Releasing forecast deliveries to end March is unhelpful.

    Releasing vaccine doses available today is embarrassing to the SNP government.

    Guess which one Nicola wants to release?
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287

    rkrkrk said:

    Cyclefree also seems to have misunderstood the purpose of covax which by design is aiming to make access to vaccines more equitable and speed up delivery to developing countries. In other words doing the opposite of what she proposes.

    Realistically I think every Government is going to take the same line - I've not the slightest doubt that Starmer would. But I don't like it myself - the idea that teenager X in one country is prioritised over elderly person Y who happens to live over the border just feels wrong. I'm having a vaccination today, and feel personally relieved but also a little ashamed - it's obvious that there are others across the borders who need it more. As a country I think that combination of feelings is right, and we should start helping others at the point where we genuinely feel that we've got the pandmeic firmly under control, rather than wait till we've reached the last 18-year-old.
    Shock! I agree with NPEXMP.
  • squareroot2squareroot2 Posts: 6,287
    Pulpstar said:

    A very good header. It's imperative we all get vaxxed

    But we won't. A significant number will refuse. Not as significant as in France and America, (Spain?)and for that reason alone, both Countries should be avoided for some time to come.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    edited February 2021
    That’s a pretty stinging analysis. Especially wounding to Van Der Leyen that she’s compared unfavourably to Donald Trump.

    Interesting that they suggest the reason the vaccine crisis is not bigger news in Europe is because they haven’t fully felt the effects yet.

    Although from what I know of it I believe it is generally quite a Eurosceptic website.
  • Sandpit said:

    Mr. Divvie, using jabs isn't the same as hoarding them.

    By definition, when they're used, that vaccine dose is gone.

    Hoarding them is what the SNP appears to be doing with their stockpiles.

    How can you know that? Releasing numbers of vaccine stocks would be a breach of national security according to HMG.
    There's no UK vaccine stocks, except in Scotland.

    The sensitive numbers are the future deliveries, for reasons that should be apparent from the last week's news.
    Not quite. All areas of the U.K. have more doses than they’ve administered- just Scotland has administered proportionately least.
    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1355846758862118913?s=20
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    edited February 2021

    Pulpstar said:

    A very good header. It's imperative we all get vaxxed

    But we won't. A significant number will refuse. Not as significant as in France and America, (Spain?)and for that reason alone, both Countries should be avoided for some time to come.
    Unless you have been vaccinated.

    I have to say I have no sympathy whatsoever with anyone who refuses a vaccine at this moment. It’s stupid, it’s selfish and it’s dangerous, principally to the refuser.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    Johnson on the right side, for a change. Border controls is mostly (identified and threatening geographically specific mutant viruses excepted) people trying to fight last year's war.
  • Great Britain is an island. So we have two approaches to this:
    1. Shut the border. Stop more cases and more strains from coming in. Vaccinate like crazy
    2. Open the border. Accept more cases will be coming in so international co-operation is needed. A UK populace largely vaccinated is useless against a new resistant strain coming in from France in May

    Sadly we appear to be doing a bit of both. A genuinely jingoistic Britain first "and then the Commonwealth" did I really read above? Combined with letting pox walk in from France and anywhere else. The world is seriously worried about these new strains - it could mutate and get around the vaccine. So its in our interest to get as many people as possible vaccinated.

    We aren't safe once we are all vaccinated. Unless everyone is vaccinated. I am not saying "give our doses away" so that we don't have enough. But we need to be co-operating internationally so that all of our neighbours also get enough.
  • I think that the amount of ‘unused” vaccines is rather exaggerated, as it does not take into consideration the wasted jabs (for example the Pfizer vaccine only has a 5 hour shelf life once opened, and if there are no-shows, then it cannot be saved).
    My wife had a jab last week (earlier than expected) as there was availability due to no-shows, and the vaccine would otherwise have had to be discarded. It would not surprise me if there is a lot of this kind of waste that goes unreported.
    Going forward, this discrepancy will only grow, making it look as though health authorities are stockpiling, or sitting on vaccines, when this will not necessarily be the case.
    I would think that an inventory at some stage should be required.
  • Surely we can all agree that the priority for surplus vaccines once we are done is fellow Test playing nations in order to get cricket up and running again?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Fair enough - suspend the CTA with the Republic until their jab rate similar- this is a Public Health issue.

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1355811871216066560?s=20

    Theyr'e injecting everyone with 'solidarity' until the vaccines come.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    edited February 2021

    I think that the amount of ‘unused” vaccines is rather exaggerated, as it does not take into consideration the wasted jabs (for example the Pfizer vaccine only has a 5 hour shelf life once opened, and if there are no-shows, then it cannot be saved).
    My wife had a jab last week (earlier than expected) as there was availability due to no-shows, and the vaccine would otherwise have had to be discarded. It would not surprise me if there is a lot of this kind of waste that goes unreported.
    Going forward, this discrepancy will only grow, making it look as though health authorities are stockpiling, or sitting on vaccines, when this will not necessarily be the case.
    I would think that an inventory at some stage should be required.

    There's a story on CNN about queues forming outside some US pharmacies of people hoping to claim an unusued leftover virus at the end of each day.
  • IanB2 said:

    Johnson on the right side, for a change. Border controls is mostly (identified and threatening geographically specific mutant viruses excepted) people trying to fight last year's war.
    It’s also just possible that the Transport Sec had a view, and it took priority.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,072
    IanB2 said:

    Johnson on the right side, for a change. Border controls is mostly (identified and threatening geographically specific mutant viruses excepted) people trying to fight last year's war.
    Why? Nobody should be travelling anyway. This is the perfect time to shut the borders and then slowly open them up again as the world vaccinates.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 66,751
    felix said:

    Fair enough - suspend the CTA with the Republic until their jab rate similar- this is a Public Health issue.

    https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1355811871216066560?s=20

    Theyr'e injecting everyone with 'solidarity' until the vaccines come.
    Well, the European Commission has demonstrated ample solidity recently. Starting with their skulls.
  • Sandpit said:

    Mr. Divvie, using jabs isn't the same as hoarding them.

    By definition, when they're used, that vaccine dose is gone.

    Hoarding them is what the SNP appears to be doing with their stockpiles.

    How can you know that? Releasing numbers of vaccine stocks would be a breach of national security according to HMG.
    There's no UK vaccine stocks, except in Scotland.

    The sensitive numbers are the future deliveries, for reasons that should be apparent from the last week's news.
    Weirdly excited voice: The UK is going to have access to X hundred million vaccines this year!

    Solemnly serious voice: The numbers for future deliveries of vaccines are VERY sensitive.

    Weirdly excited voice again: Ireland will be biting our hand off for some of our hundreds of millions of vaccines!
  • Mr. Pioneers, if you're referring to me, I said us, then Ireland, then elsewhere, perhaps the Commonwealth.

    I'd love to hear your rationalisation of how supporting giving vaccines to other countries is jingoistic.
  • rcs1000 said:

    "When it has vaccinated or obtained doses for all its population, then it can – and should – help other countries who are in a less fortunate position."

    Should that - for selfish, fence-mending reasons - be the EU we help?

    Or should we instead help developing countries? Luxembourg or Libreville? Spain - or Port of Spain?

    Arguably, the EU countries are having a harder time from Covid than many developing countries, through age profile or - frankly, who knows why. Perhaps our surplus vaccines could do most good there, in terms of alleviating death and suffering. But those developing countries have not had any chance to splash out billions to develop vaccine facilities. Germany or France or Netherlands have had a choice - but have not seen fit to put out the billions that the UK/USA have done.

    It's Aesop's The Ant and the Grasshopper made very real.

    We seem obsessed by this question of helping the EU. Realistically, by the point at which everyone in the UK is covered (say end May to get 50 million adults both doses), then the EU will be receiving big shipments of vaccines and won't need any of ours.

    So, it's not clear to me why we seem to be obsessing over a scenario which is unlikely to actually happen.
    It really should be obvious! UK political geeks obsessing and emotionally overreacting to the EU? Quelle surprise.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068
    IanB2 said:

    I think that the amount of ‘unused” vaccines is rather exaggerated, as it does not take into consideration the wasted jabs (for example the Pfizer vaccine only has a 5 hour shelf life once opened, and if there are no-shows, then it cannot be saved).
    My wife had a jab last week (earlier than expected) as there was availability due to no-shows, and the vaccine would otherwise have had to be discarded. It would not surprise me if there is a lot of this kind of waste that goes unreported.
    Going forward, this discrepancy will only grow, making it look as though health authorities are stockpiling, or sitting on vaccines, when this will not necessarily be the case.
    I would think that an inventory at some stage should be required.

    There's a story on CNN about queues forming outside some US pharmacies of people hoping to claim an unusued leftover virus at the end of each day.
    That may well be true, though probably they would be queuing for the vaccine...
  • Mr. Pioneers, if you're referring to me, I said us, then Ireland, then elsewhere, perhaps the Commonwealth.

    I'd love to hear your rationalisation of how supporting giving vaccines to other countries is jingoistic.

    The general "fck the EU" noise is screaming jingoism - I'm not saying that is you. Your approach of give it to Ireland is perfectly sound, but why then the Commonwealth? We need our immediate neighbours to be pox free so that we can open back up, far more so than we need Canada to be.
  • Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    I think that the amount of ‘unused” vaccines is rather exaggerated, as it does not take into consideration the wasted jabs (for example the Pfizer vaccine only has a 5 hour shelf life once opened, and if there are no-shows, then it cannot be saved).
    My wife had a jab last week (earlier than expected) as there was availability due to no-shows, and the vaccine would otherwise have had to be discarded. It would not surprise me if there is a lot of this kind of waste that goes unreported.
    Going forward, this discrepancy will only grow, making it look as though health authorities are stockpiling, or sitting on vaccines, when this will not necessarily be the case.
    I would think that an inventory at some stage should be required.

    There's a story on CNN about queues forming outside some US pharmacies of people hoping to claim an unusued leftover virus at the end of each day.
    That may well be true, though probably they would be queuing for the vaccine...
    They have a right to bear biological weapons under one of their constitutional amendments I think.
  • "This does not include British and Irish Nationals, longer-term visa holders and permanent residents, who will be able to enter but are required to self-isolate for 10 days on arrival along with their household."

    Surely they should be tested and quarantined formally not self isolating?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    edited February 2021
    They hail the disinfection of streets, etc here in Spain all the time - it is deflection exercise to pretend something is being done. Even the most charitable analysis would suggest it ca n only kill the virus until the next carries touches the relevant surface. However, if you question the point of it the criticisms rain down in full force....according to a 'friend' on Facebook :smiley:
  • Scott_xP said:
    Its absurd. So far we have been lucky that non of the mutant strains have defeated the efficacy of the vaccines. We've done such a sensational job in getting this advanced with the vaccination programme, yet risk it all by not even doing basic checks of people coming into the country.

    Whatever happened to wanting to Take Back Control of our borders? Who is leaning on Shagger to stop him doing this and why? We've seen time after time that the Tories have used the Pandemic to hand vast amounts of cash to their mates, so I assume there is a financial reason for the idiocy.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    I think that the amount of ‘unused” vaccines is rather exaggerated, as it does not take into consideration the wasted jabs (for example the Pfizer vaccine only has a 5 hour shelf life once opened, and if there are no-shows, then it cannot be saved).
    My wife had a jab last week (earlier than expected) as there was availability due to no-shows, and the vaccine would otherwise have had to be discarded. It would not surprise me if there is a lot of this kind of waste that goes unreported.
    Going forward, this discrepancy will only grow, making it look as though health authorities are stockpiling, or sitting on vaccines, when this will not necessarily be the case.
    I would think that an inventory at some stage should be required.

    There's a story on CNN about queues forming outside some US pharmacies of people hoping to claim an unusued leftover virus at the end of each day.
    That may well be true, though probably they would be queuing for the vaccine...
    Oops. Although if the queue is there all day, they might very well be queuing for both!
  • Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    I think that the amount of ‘unused” vaccines is rather exaggerated, as it does not take into consideration the wasted jabs (for example the Pfizer vaccine only has a 5 hour shelf life once opened, and if there are no-shows, then it cannot be saved).
    My wife had a jab last week (earlier than expected) as there was availability due to no-shows, and the vaccine would otherwise have had to be discarded. It would not surprise me if there is a lot of this kind of waste that goes unreported.
    Going forward, this discrepancy will only grow, making it look as though health authorities are stockpiling, or sitting on vaccines, when this will not necessarily be the case.
    I would think that an inventory at some stage should be required.

    There's a story on CNN about queues forming outside some US pharmacies of people hoping to claim an unusued leftover virus at the end of each day.
    That may well be true, though probably they would be queuing for the vaccine...
    The virus is a free gift from joining the queue.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,083

    IanB2 said:

    Johnson on the right side, for a change. Border controls is mostly (identified and threatening geographically specific mutant viruses excepted) people trying to fight last year's war.
    Why? Nobody should be travelling anyway. This is the perfect time to shut the borders and then slowly open them up again as the world vaccinates.
    That's not actually true. The list of legitimate reasons applies.
  • What is the plan for under 18s? Not heard anything on this, are the pharma companies starting trials for them yet, or is the plan just to leave them unvaccinated indefinitely?
  • "This does not include British and Irish Nationals, longer-term visa holders and permanent residents, who will be able to enter but are required to self-isolate for 10 days on arrival along with their household."

    Surely they should be tested and quarantined formally not self isolating?
    It’s a can of worms, but I’d rather not get in to holding a British citizen against their will on no charge when we could just ask them to stay put at home (and check they are, with stern penalties if they don’t).
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,068

    rcs1000 said:

    "When it has vaccinated or obtained doses for all its population, then it can – and should – help other countries who are in a less fortunate position."

    Should that - for selfish, fence-mending reasons - be the EU we help?

    Or should we instead help developing countries? Luxembourg or Libreville? Spain - or Port of Spain?

    Arguably, the EU countries are having a harder time from Covid than many developing countries, through age profile or - frankly, who knows why. Perhaps our surplus vaccines could do most good there, in terms of alleviating death and suffering. But those developing countries have not had any chance to splash out billions to develop vaccine facilities. Germany or France or Netherlands have had a choice - but have not seen fit to put out the billions that the UK/USA have done.

    It's Aesop's The Ant and the Grasshopper made very real.

    We seem obsessed by this question of helping the EU. Realistically, by the point at which everyone in the UK is covered (say end May to get 50 million adults both doses), then the EU will be receiving big shipments of vaccines and won't need any of ours.

    So, it's not clear to me why we seem to be obsessing over a scenario which is unlikely to actually happen.
    It really should be obvious! UK political geeks obsessing and emotionally overreacting to the EU? Quelle surprise.
    As I pointed out earlier, the EU has 2.3 billion of its own vaccines on order. They too will be swimming in them as will the USA.

    What will limit effectiveness across the world is the healthcare infrastructure to effectively distribute to the right age range. In Sub Saharan Africa nearly half the population is under 18 years old. Identifying and vaccinating the at risk population would be quite tricky.

    At the moment, while countries wait impatiently for Godot they should be doing the detailed logistical planning for that infrastructure. Few countries have as efficient a vaccination register and well integrated primary care as our NHS.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    "When it has vaccinated or obtained doses for all its population, then it can – and should – help other countries who are in a less fortunate position."

    Should that - for selfish, fence-mending reasons - be the EU we help?

    Or should we instead help developing countries? Luxembourg or Libreville? Spain - or Port of Spain?

    Arguably, the EU countries are having a harder time from Covid than many developing countries, through age profile or - frankly, who knows why. Perhaps our surplus vaccines could do most good there, in terms of alleviating death and suffering. But those developing countries have not had any chance to splash out billions to develop vaccine facilities. Germany or France or Netherlands have had a choice - but have not seen fit to put out the billions that the UK/USA have done.

    It's Aesop's The Ant and the Grasshopper made very real.

    Someone suggested a Commonwealth programme - I’d be good for that. Supplying the EU would simply give support to the belief that the developed world looks after its own interests first second and third
This discussion has been closed.