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Home or Abroad? – politicalbetting.com
Home or Abroad? – politicalbetting.com
The desire (expressed by some – the WHO, for instance) for Britain to give away vaccines to other countries before we have vaccinated our own population is politically insane and, frankly, immoral. There: I’ve said it. Call me selfish, if you will. But let me explain why I say this.
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Should that - for selfish, fence-mending reasons - be the EU we help?
Or should we instead help developing countries? Luxembourg or Libreville? Spain - or Port of Spain?
Arguably, the EU countries are having a harder time from Covid than many developing countries, through age profile or - frankly, who knows why. Perhaps our surplus vaccines could do most good there, in terms of alleviating death and suffering. But those developing countries have not had any chance to splash out billions to develop vaccine facilities. Germany or France or Netherlands have had a choice - but have not seen fit to put out the billions that the UK/USA have done.
It's Aesop's The Ant and the Grasshopper made very real.
So, it's not clear to me why we seem to be obsessing over a scenario which is unlikely to actually happen.
Quite frankly I think anyone who says otherwise is likely trolling.
The EU has many problems. But it also has some of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies, and Pfizer has licensed Novartis and Sanofi to produce their vaccine. CureVac will be available from May, or maybe even earlier, and Bayer has signed up to manufacture that under license too.
Plus there's AstraZeneca and others.
The world is going to be swimming in vaccines in three months time.
Like .. er .. Serbia.
I am involuntary nerd having read it a number of times, but obvs not quite so rabbithole-bound as some.
I cede no 1 on that subject with relief.
Though I recall it was very nearly St Endellion the sand-buried "the very name sounds like a ring of bells" church that was loved by the old High Church queen Betjeman.
Alternative spelling?
1 - before we have vaccinated our own population is politically insane and, frankly, immoral
2 - especially the young, who have lost jobs, seen businesses damaged, sometimes beyond repair, lost savings, lost opportunities
3 - When it has vaccinated or obtained doses for all its population, then it can – and should – help other countries who are in a less fortunate position
I would modify 2. Huge numbers now do education until 21-25 now, so "young and fancy free" needs to extend to mid or late 20s. Also matches the +10 years of life expectancy and later retirement age they have.
I did the sponsored-through-uni-thin-sandwich thing, which helped hugely, but cost me all my summer breaks except for pro-rate 13 days paid holiday. I still miss them.
A small number of vaccines to medical staff in third world countries might go a long way.
https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/coronavirus-latest-dubai-to-cut-mall-and-venue-capacity-1.1143347
Bars closed in Dubai from today, for the month of February, stricter capacity limits introduced for restaurants, malls and cinemas.
https://twitter.com/JudithCollinsMP/status/1356444161969250306
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-some-in-whitehall-think-every-adult-could-be-offered-a-covid-jab-by-may-12205873
Does anyone know why Scotland is lagging?
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-ministers-accused-of-being-reckless-over-sage-variant-warning-12206114
I don't think locking our borders is the right way forward now. It might have been a year ago. The key to this is vaccination and on that the Government are on a roll.
Reports are that the 2nd jab may even include a tweak to help zap the SA variant better.
It really is all about vaccination.
As predicted last year, access to vaccines is now becoming a huge global political issue, as there's simply not enough of them to go round for the next few months.
Thankfully it's a temporary issue, by June or July there will be hundreds of millions of doses produced per month - but will mean that the restrictions will have to remain in place for longer, and the exceptional government support continue, in those countries which were not at the front of the queue for the purchase and production of the vaccines.
The UK is now in a position that most of the restrictions can be relaxed by the middle of the year, with the exception of international travel and quarantine.
Pfizer 600 million
Sanofi-GSK 300 million
J and J 400 million
CureVac 405 million
Moderna 160 million
Novavax 200 million
Valneva 60 million
Their problem will mostly be infrastructure to roll out vaccinations, and antivaxxing rather than supply shortages, perhaps as soon as Easter. They too will have plenty to give away.
Safest to close the borders and vaccinate everyone inside, who can then continue life pretty much as usual, but with strict controls on those entering and leaving the country.
If we include RoI and the many islands surrounding the UK (Channel Islands, IoM etc) in the vaccine scheme, we can all holiday inside the bubble this summer, once the case numbers come down.
Many involved in the insurrection professed to be motivated by patriotism, falsely declaring that Trump was the rightful winner of the election. Yet at least eight of the people who are now facing criminal charges for their involvement in the events at the Capitol did not vote in the November 2020 presidential election, according to an analysis of voting records from the states where protestors were arrested and those states where public records show they have lived.
More likely they would think we were trolling them over the recent fiasco.
Boring, but I agree entirely, Miss Cyclefree.
Vaccinate the UK first, then the Republic of Ireland, then look to elsewhere (the Commonwealth would be a good start, perhaps).
Edit - yes they are : https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-9021/
@Cyclefree is correct. And underlying all the good points she makes, especially with regard to young people, there is the fundamental issue of inter-generational equity. The younger people of the UK have been crushed under the weight of lockdown and its many implications in large part to save the lives of the old. Once the old have been protected from the virus, expecting the young to then keep playing a game of Russian roulette with it, whilst people abroad are inoculated at their expense, is indefensible.
The first duty of Government is the defence of the realm - both its territory and its citizenry. Britain can help the rest of the world too, but the rest of the world will have to wait until we are good and ready.
https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1355811871216066560?s=20
pretend she knew what she was doingstabilise the vaccine situation I have to say I think that would be a very bad idea.In any case, aren’t we all looking at this the wrong way? Once we have been vaccinated, we don’t have to worry overmuch about travel restrictions, etc. Our population won’t be at significant risk any more.
Of course, that doesn’t demonstrate we can’t carry it, but that means it’s not the UK that would need to shut the border.
I'm inclined to agree with Ms Cyclefree; as someone else said it's a bit like putting on your own oxygen mask first in an aircraft.
There are two aspects to the future, IMHO, anyway. One is that we are probably going to have to keep vaccinating; it isn't going to be like mumps or meningitis; one or two doses and you're fine for evermore. It's going to be more like influenza where either the protection itself doesn't last or the virus mutates and 2021's vaccination doesn't protect against 2023's (let us hope) strain. So the companies are going to have to devote massive resources to coronavirus vaccines.
That raises the question of the future of Big Pharma itself. If much of it's energies are going to be spent on coronavirus vaccines, how is the industry to be funded, and what about other diseases and conditions? And we in the West can buy, or subsidise, vaccines for, for example, Sub-Saharan Africa for now, but for how long?
We must hoard our jabs for ourselves with specific exceptions, and only if those exceptions grovel sufficiently.
By definition, when they're used, that vaccine dose is gone.
Hoarding them is what the SNP appears to be doing with their stockpiles.
The sensitive numbers are the future deliveries, for reasons that should be apparent from the last week's news.
You have to do the whole not a part of the population.
Many of the young feel that society is fixed against them - the enthusiasm with which a previously unpolitical person like by mid-20s nephew has embraced the Reddit ‘take down Wall Street’ investing mania has surprised me.
We do need to manage our vaccination programme with the object of getting everyone in our society done as a priority.
There is also a utilitarian argument that getting some of the world’s economic units back functioning normally earlier is more optimal for the global economy as a whole than keeping lockdowns everywhere while the whole world is only partly vaccinated.
Again obfuscation.
Releasing forecast deliveries to end March is unhelpful.
Releasing vaccine doses available today is embarrassing to the SNP government.
Guess which one Nicola wants to release?
Interesting that they suggest the reason the vaccine crisis is not bigger news in Europe is because they haven’t fully felt the effects yet.
Although from what I know of it I believe it is generally quite a Eurosceptic website.
https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1355846758862118913?s=20
https://twitter.com/doctor_oxford/status/1356499613402939392?s=21
I have to say I have no sympathy whatsoever with anyone who refuses a vaccine at this moment. It’s stupid, it’s selfish and it’s dangerous, principally to the refuser.
1. Shut the border. Stop more cases and more strains from coming in. Vaccinate like crazy
2. Open the border. Accept more cases will be coming in so international co-operation is needed. A UK populace largely vaccinated is useless against a new resistant strain coming in from France in May
Sadly we appear to be doing a bit of both. A genuinely jingoistic Britain first "and then the Commonwealth" did I really read above? Combined with letting pox walk in from France and anywhere else. The world is seriously worried about these new strains - it could mutate and get around the vaccine. So its in our interest to get as many people as possible vaccinated.
We aren't safe once we are all vaccinated. Unless everyone is vaccinated. I am not saying "give our doses away" so that we don't have enough. But we need to be co-operating internationally so that all of our neighbours also get enough.
My wife had a jab last week (earlier than expected) as there was availability due to no-shows, and the vaccine would otherwise have had to be discarded. It would not surprise me if there is a lot of this kind of waste that goes unreported.
Going forward, this discrepancy will only grow, making it look as though health authorities are stockpiling, or sitting on vaccines, when this will not necessarily be the case.
I would think that an inventory at some stage should be required.
Solemnly serious voice: The numbers for future deliveries of vaccines are VERY sensitive.
Weirdly excited voice again: Ireland will be biting our hand off for some of our hundreds of millions of vaccines!
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/travel-restrictions-update-south-africa-ban-extended-israel-and-jerusalem-removed-from-travel-corridors-list
I'd love to hear your rationalisation of how supporting giving vaccines to other countries is jingoistic.
Surely they should be tested and quarantined formally not self isolating?
Whatever happened to wanting to Take Back Control of our borders? Who is leaning on Shagger to stop him doing this and why? We've seen time after time that the Tories have used the Pandemic to hand vast amounts of cash to their mates, so I assume there is a financial reason for the idiocy.
What will limit effectiveness across the world is the healthcare infrastructure to effectively distribute to the right age range. In Sub Saharan Africa nearly half the population is under 18 years old. Identifying and vaccinating the at risk population would be quite tricky.
At the moment, while countries wait impatiently for Godot they should be doing the detailed logistical planning for that infrastructure. Few countries have as efficient a vaccination register and well integrated primary care as our NHS.