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Trying to explain what’s been happening in Brussels – politicalbetting.com
Trying to explain what’s been happening in Brussels – politicalbetting.com
A short video explaining tonight's moves by the EU leadership in Brusselshttps://t.co/jRhWcUyXVf
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My reasoning is this.
It’s not that all the difficult decisions have been made and it’s some sort of game set and match here. COVID crisis still has a long way to run. It’s not just preventing hospitalisation and death to aim for, but restrict transmissions, and as newer vaccines come along, some actually based on COVID itself, they may be better at one or the other, or just all round better than what you have stockpiled and still jabbing away with. Also now the need to be innovative with the range of weaponry, mix and matching to try to find the optimum delivery. It leads to more crucial decisions yet to be taken.
That’s why I say do what you can to avoid Vaccine Nationalism. UK to foster as big a coalition of cooperation and support as it can - ignore how or why EU have crisis, simply recognise crisis on our doorstep, and talk and explore how we can help them with it, without too much detriment to ourselves.
Because at some point before this is over, we may yet need help in return.
Forget it.
https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_2467
It's open to interpretation but key para imo is 5.1 which states "AstraZeneca shall use its Best Reasonable Efforts to manufacture the Initial Europe Doses within the EU for distribution..."
What he has said, in toto, is wildly irresponsible. The science is debatable, but much of it (most of it?) says Yes, a one dose strategy makes good sense, in extremis. This is a pandemic, you can't always do everything by the book, minimising initial infections (with one shot) is the best route, but make sure you re-inject after 12 weeks (which is HMG's plan, AIUI)
Now, fuck knows, maybe it will prove a disaster. But no one can be sure, yet here is President Emmanuel Trump of France making statements which are:1. hugely undermining confidence in the efficacy of a crucial vaccine and 2. claiming a one dose strategy is utterly wrong - and with no scientific consensus supporting him for either claim.
Macron may be a mincing, narcissistic toyboy but he is not stupid.
My guess? - he has been seriously unnerved by that poll showing Le Pen nearly beating him in Round 2, and he has overreacted in an "unhelpful" way
Frankly, it's no fun being a member of a crowd.
https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/status/1355291638696976386?s=21
Since its past the lagershed, can I suggest that the EU's behaviour today culminating in saying they "mistakenly" invoked Article 16 is like someone turning up at A&E explaining that they slipped, fell, and now "accidentally" have an inanimate object stuck up their derriere.
But how is the UK Government meant to find the political room to do anything to help in the first place if this rotten lot treat us as the enemy? Look at the enormous list of exemptions on their export control list, and then look at who isn't exempted. Then also take a look at the noises off that have come from their side, not just attacking AstraZeneca for the dreadful failing of not being able to deliver enough of a vaccine that the European Commission ordered far too late, but also foaming on about the UK showing insufficient solidarity, or wanting to start a vaccine war, or whatever other fictitious, bullshit accusation springs to mind.
God alone knows the British Government is very far from bloody perfect, but in this case the entire fault for today's collective nervous breakdown lies at the door of the EU. They've done the sabre rattling, they've issued the threats, they've treated us as the enemy. All because they're looking for a scapegoat to try to obscure their own mistakes, and have decided that the UK is the best candidate available.
I know that the European Commission and the member state politicians alike are facing a disaster and they're desperate, but beating us over the head, as a displacement activity to avoid having to confront their own liability, isn't on. We can help them, but first they need to back the Hell off.
https://twitter.com/KvanOosterom/status/1355181588951277575
He's insanely lauded at the moment because he's not Trump, but that doesn't mean he's any good. He's got a history of lying and plagiarism (he claimed he had 3 degrees and he ripped off a Kinnock speech, whilst lying about his mining pedigree), he's got a weird habit of inappropriately touching children, he probably did unethically use his influence to get his boy a job in the Ukraine, and he doesn't appear to be in as much control of his faculties as I'd like for a US president.
Sure he's better than Trump, but with a such a low hurdle UVDL or Macron (or even Boris!) would make good Presidents.
He's on manoeuvres!
Frankly, for the first time, the EU is genuinely thinking of its citizens, and how it can make sure they have the essential vaccines they need. I'm just glad they're finally thinking of the people, and not just looking after big corporations.
How's that?
This, I feel, sums up many Americans views towards him:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTBpwOOTKjs&ab_channel=TheDailyShowwithTrevorNoah
My Dad has an awesome example of that from his registrar time. Someone came in with a really bad bladder stone. He couldn't pee it out so Dad had to cut him open to remove it. It was so large that Dad was compelled by curiosity to investigate and cut it open to find blutack inside it. The only way you can get blutack in your bladder is by pushing it up through your penis. When questioned the patient's story started with the phone ringing when he was in the shower..
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1355289056054226944
I was a strong Remainer in the Brexit referendum. But I was not happy with the forced choice we appeared to be offered by the EU prior to the Brexit vote. Continuing on a path to increasing integration or the alternative - a potentially cataclysmic divorce. Reluctantly I preferred the former. We tumbled into the latter.
Being autonomous over our own vaccine decision making is proving to be enormously significant and hugely beneficial to the UK. I am aware that we could have made some, or possibly all, of the same emergency vaccine decisions had we remained a member of the EU. But I suspect we would have followed a collective EU decision making path had we not Brexited.
So I'm starting to wonder if Brexit might prove to be a "blessing in disguise" !!
Earlier, one PB-er posited the theory that EU governments sense a terrible third wave of Covid coming, hence the bizarre behaviour, in Paris, Brussels, elsewhere. In short: they are scared, and panicking, and absolutely desperate for jabs
I'm not sure I buy it, but the closure of nearly all EU borders everywhere supports the theory
But leaving them in unguarded premises near the border ripe for a bit of smuggling might do it.
It's probably a good idea to be pragmatic, although this is also an object lesson in why this country should aim to build relationships with the rest of the world as fast as possible. Just as, when Ireland joined the EEC, Dublin viewed it as an opportunity to reduce its dependence on Britain, so Britain should view Brexit as an opportunity to reduce its reliance on Europe.
Fuck...
I'd say the core Remain arguments are:
1) The EU provides a political framework for differences and tensions between European countries to be discussed and resolved peacefully and with the minimum of damage, rather than descending into damaging confrontations. This week being a perfect example of how quickly simple problems can deteriorate to talk of 'war'.
2) The UK because of its geographical position is going to be deeply affected by the EU whether we are in it our out of it. Better to be in it and have some control and protection, than out of it and at its mercy. In the end, the UK is too big to be ignored by the EU but too small to fight back.
Three cheers to OGH. He's never hidden his pro-EU views but has a sense of humour
The arsehole has called the AZ vaccine ineffective in over 65s. Who in the FDA or the WHO or even the EMA has said that? The man is a dangerous lunatic who needs to be shut up.
You're heading the same way.
The core problem at the heart of the EU's vaccine plan was a simple one: they wanted to use their size to negotiate better prices, not faster access. It was a monumental error, and one that was the consequence of the people who made the decisions not being accountable to the voters.
https://www.repubblica.it/cronaca/2021/01/26/news/interview_pascal_soriot_ceo_astrazeneca_coronavirus_covid_vaccines-284349628/
Not to mention the issue of EU shortfalls leading to Eastern countries in particular falling back into Russian orbit.
I take it you missed the news the WHO is very interested in the UK's 12 week program, has a couple of representatives on the JCVI, are following our results with interest and are seriously considering making 12 week rollout WHO advice worldwide?
The EU have proved in the last few days that they do not see us as either friends or allies
I will not forget that.
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/90832
The Royal College of Surgeons
https://www.rcseng.ac.uk/news-and-events/media-centre/press-releases/statement-jcvi-policy-delay-second-dose-covid-vaccines/
The Royal College of Physicians
https://www.rcseng.ac.uk/news-and-events/media-centre/press-releases/statement-jcvi-policy-delay-second-dose-covid-vaccines/
or the Canadian Health Service
https://www.rcseng.ac.uk/news-and-events/media-centre/press-releases/statement-jcvi-policy-delay-second-dose-covid-vaccines/
As I said, the science is disputed. The fact is, no one can be sure. It is a punt, but one that, to me, seems justified when facing a desperate situation with a more virulent variant, and when you REALLY need to stop more mutations (from more infections)
What Macron did was say everyone basically agreed with him, and the delayed 2nd dose was stupid. Which was stupid, of him. And also plainly wrong.
But that is an almost secondary reason. Eire shares these islands with us and I think that in itself is as good a reason as any to help them out. I am not convinced that the rest of the EU can or will look out for them. It is a matter of common decency that we do.
To be honest if the amount of vaccine coming down the line is anything like what is expected we would be able to get Ireland jabbed and meet or even exceed our commitments under COVAX without to much of a problem.
And we should do, not because of Imperial guilt, or self preservation or even self promotion but because it is simply the right thing to do.
I can see funding things on the Gavi website but they're massive and apply to Gavi, not specifically Covax.
By May the EU (or the portions where the most are dying) will have caught up with the UK in vaccinations and this early panic will have been forgotten about. The UK will still have one of the highest death rates in the world and a shattered economy as well. Yes the EU have been idiots regarding vaccines but that doesn't change the overall picture.
Clearly, those who had one Pfizer need the second in due course.
They can't be given the second dose of a different vaccine.
So, disruption of supplies by "our friends in the EU" may still cause problems -- even if we have plenty of other vaccines.
"Contracts have been concluded with AstraZeneca (400 million doses), Sanofi-GSK (300 million doses), Johnson and Johnson (400 million doses ), BioNTech-Pfizer 600 million doses, CureVac (405 million doses) and Moderna (160 million doses). The Commission has concluded exploratory talks with the pharmaceutical company Novavax with a view to purchasing up to 200 million doses and with Valneva with a view to purchase up to 60 million doses."
From: https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/qanda_20_2467