Dr John Campbell, at 9 mins: “If flights had been stopped a year ago, we would probably have never had this pandemic“.
youtube.com/watch?v=gRYFg-ZPs_U
Yes, if we had hermetically sealed the country in early January 2020, we would probably have avoided the plague
But what politician would have had the bravery and boldness (and foresight), to crater the economy, ruining several major industries (tourism, education, aviation) way back then, just because of a weird bug in Wuhan?
If the sample is small enough, then the 95% confidence interval is large - as we know from opinion polls. It could be true that the clinical trials had a very small number of people over 85 who contracted the disease? Remember that the efficacy is measured not by looking at proportion of people who got it, but by comparing the proportion who got it in the drug group and the control group.
By now, though, there are so many people who've been vaccinated that the "sample" is gigantic, and it should be possible soon to draw some definitive conclusions. For Pfizer we already have data on this from Israel which looks encouraging.
Of course you're right with all this Nick, but the Pfizer -12.1% lower confidence interval never made it into any mainstream press. It seems possible that AZ's 8% lower confidence interval has, and that therefore it's travelled around the world and encouraged antivaxers everywhere.
As I've said, I'm not criticising Pfizer but trying to understand how Handelsblatt fucked up quite so badly.
If the sample is small enough, then the 95% confidence interval is large - as we know from opinion polls. It could be true that the clinical trials had a very small number of people over 85 who contracted the disease? Remember that the efficacy is measured not by looking at proportion of people who got it, but by comparing the proportion who got it in the drug group and the control group.
By now, though, there are so many people who've been vaccinated that the "sample" is gigantic, and it should be possible soon to draw some definitive conclusions. For Pfizer we already have data on this from Israel which looks encouraging.
Of course you're right with all this Nick, but the Pfizer -12.1% lower confidence interval never made it into any mainstream press. It seems possible that AZ's 8% lower confidence interval has, and that therefore it's travelled around the world and encouraged antivaxers everywhere.
As I've said, I'm not criticising Pfizer but trying to understand how Handelsblatt fucked up quite so badly.
"We can't have it, but its shit anyway" mentality.
If the sample is small enough, then the 95% confidence interval is large - as we know from opinion polls. It could be true that the clinical trials had a very small number of people over 85 who contracted the disease? Remember that the efficacy is measured not by looking at proportion of people who got it, but by comparing the proportion who got it in the drug group and the control group.
By now, though, there are so many people who've been vaccinated that the "sample" is gigantic, and it should be possible soon to draw some definitive conclusions. For Pfizer we already have data on this from Israel which looks encouraging.
Of course you're right with all this Nick, but the Pfizer -12.1% lower confidence interval never made it into any mainstream press. It seems possible that AZ's 8% lower confidence interval has, and that therefore it's travelled around the world and encouraged antivaxers everywhere.
As I've said, I'm not criticising Pfizer but trying to understand how Handelsblatt fucked up quite so badly.
See my post below. Pfizer really did have a confidence interval, for over-75s, of -13% - 100%
I have a confidence interval of 92-100% that this is the explanation for the Handesblatt fuck-up. Someone seized on a mad lower bound (8%) for oldsters, took it as a central prediction, and willfully or not passed this total misinterpretation on to a gullible journalist, who is now desperate to save his reputation and career, by slowly walking it all back.
Dr John Campbell, at 9 mins: “If flights had been stopped a year ago, we would probably have never had this pandemic“.
youtube.com/watch?v=gRYFg-ZPs_U
Yes, if we had hermetically sealed the country in early January 2020, we would probably have avoided the plague
But what politician would have had the bravery and boldness (and foresight), to crater the economy, ruining several major industries (tourism, education, aviation) way back then, just because of a weird bug in Wuhan?
Or, using the SKS Hindsight Specs, we could have just nuked Wuhan from orbit. Ground zero their wet market.
Dr John Campbell, at 9 mins: “If flights had been stopped a year ago, we would probably have never had this pandemic“.
youtube.com/watch?v=gRYFg-ZPs_U
Yes, if we had hermetically sealed the country in early January 2020, we would probably have avoided the plague
But what politician would have had the bravery and boldness (and foresight), to crater the economy, ruining several major industries (tourism, education, aviation) way back then, just because of a weird bug in Wuhan?
Or, using the SKS Hindsight Specs, we could have just nuked Wuhan from orbit. Ground zero their wet market.
Perhaps the next global pandemic will come from a moth-botherer somewhere in England.
Dr John Campbell, at 9 mins: “If flights had been stopped a year ago, we would probably have never had this pandemic“.
youtube.com/watch?v=gRYFg-ZPs_U
Yes, if we had hermetically sealed the country in early January 2020, we would probably have avoided the plague
But what politician would have had the bravery and boldness (and foresight), to crater the economy, ruining several major industries (tourism, education, aviation) way back then, just because of a weird bug in Wuhan?
Or, using the SKS Hindsight Specs, we could have just nuked Wuhan from orbit. Ground zero their wet market.
Or we could have killed every bat in the world, when we had the chance, in the 1970s. Everybody hated bats then.
If the sample is small enough, then the 95% confidence interval is large - as we know from opinion polls. It could be true that the clinical trials had a very small number of people over 85 who contracted the disease? Remember that the efficacy is measured not by looking at proportion of people who got it, but by comparing the proportion who got it in the drug group and the control group.
By now, though, there are so many people who've been vaccinated that the "sample" is gigantic, and it should be possible soon to draw some definitive conclusions. For Pfizer we already have data on this from Israel which looks encouraging.
Of course you're right with all this Nick, but the Pfizer -12.1% lower confidence interval never made it into any mainstream press. It seems possible that AZ's 8% lower confidence interval has, and that therefore it's travelled around the world and encouraged antivaxers everywhere.
As I've said, I'm not criticising Pfizer but trying to understand how Handelsblatt fucked up quite so badly.
See my post below. Pfizer really did have a confidence interval, for over-75s, of -13% - 100%
I have a confidence interval of 92-100% that this is the explanation for the Handesblatt fuck-up. Someone seized on a mad lower bound (8%) for oldsters, took it as a central prediction, and willfully or not passed this total misinterpretation on to a gullible journalist, who is now desperate to save his reputation and career, by slowly walking it all back.
Imagine if the Financial Times had seriously reported that the German BioNTech/Pfizer vaccine might increase the chance of over 75s catching the virus by 13%..
Lord, forgive them, they know not what they do. Though by now they damn well should.
Why is the WI legislature so batcrap crazy?
And why is the WI Governor so sane?
As MM notes down-thred, the partisan balance in Wisconsin state senate is heavily skewed toward Republicans.
As for the Democatic gov, he's been criticized for weakness, but is also dealing with (as you note) a really challenging legislature chock full o'nuts.
Why so nut? The Badger State is (like an actual badger) quirky, stubborn, inclined to get its way AND also be a pest.
A few historical examples:
> during the US Civil War, the young state of Wisconsin contributed a large share of the troops to one of the Union Army's most famous fighting formations, the Iron Brigade.
> the state produced not one but two generals noted for fighting the enemy AND their own leadership; Gen. Arthur MacArthur who won the Congressional Medal of Honor in the Civil War and fought in Philippine "Insurection", and his son Douglas MacArthur, who fought the German Army in WWI, the Bonus Army in Washington DC, the Japanese Army in WWII, and North Korean Army and Chinese "Volunteers" in Korea.
> politically famous as home base of Robert La Follette, reform prosecutor, governor and US Senator who broke the power of railroads & other land-pirates in state government, replaced bossed conventions with popular primaries, introduced voter initiative and referendum in Wisconsin and nationally, opposed US entry into WWI, then broke with Republican Party in 1924 to run for president as a progressive; he won just one state: Wisconsin; after his death his sons extended the family's political clout in the state for another generation.
> also home of Sen. "Tail-Gunner" Joe McCarthy, who became a national celebrity and Republican party power-broker; fierce anti-communist fond of totalitarian methods, a proto-Trumpsky
> has also elected some notable, and sometimes slightly weird Democrats, for example Sen. William Proximre who was famous for his Golden Fleece Awards to the most wasteful government spending he ran into each year.
> speaking of Democrats, one of the surprises of the 1964 Democratic primary was the strong vote for southern segregationist Gov. George Wallace of Alabama; one of the first major evidences of "White backlash" in US politics during the 1960s and 70s. On the other hand, it was scene of epic primary victories by liberals Eugene McCarthy in 1968 and George McGovern in 1972 - and centrists Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992.
> in last decade has been highly polarized and deeply divided, major battleground between labor & progressives versus corporations & conservatives, resulting in close elections and highly divisive politics.
> almost forgot two other great examples: Green Bay Packers; and socialism in Milwaukee personified by Victor Berger, Socialist Party congressman expelled for his radicalism then re-elected overwhelmingly.
> Plus one of few rural states that had civil war draft riots, also a bunch of Cheeseheads!
Dr John Campbell, at 9 mins: “If flights had been stopped a year ago, we would probably have never had this pandemic“.
youtube.com/watch?v=gRYFg-ZPs_U
Yes, if we had hermetically sealed the country in early January 2020, we would probably have avoided the plague
But what politician would have had the bravery and boldness (and foresight), to crater the economy, ruining several major industries (tourism, education, aviation) way back then, just because of a weird bug in Wuhan?
Or, using the SKS Hindsight Specs, we could have just nuked Wuhan from orbit. Ground zero their wet market.
Perhaps the next global pandemic will come from a moth-botherer somewhere in England.
"moth-botherer" Is that a thing in UK? Like twitchers and train-spotters?
Dr John Campbell, at 9 mins: “If flights had been stopped a year ago, we would probably have never had this pandemic“.
youtube.com/watch?v=gRYFg-ZPs_U
Yes, if we had hermetically sealed the country in early January 2020, we would probably have avoided the plague
But what politician would have had the bravery and boldness (and foresight), to crater the economy, ruining several major industries (tourism, education, aviation) way back then, just because of a weird bug in Wuhan?
Or, using the SKS Hindsight Specs, we could have just nuked Wuhan from orbit. Ground zero their wet market.
Perhaps the next global pandemic will come from a moth-botherer somewhere in England.
"moth-botherer" Is that a thing in UK? Like twitchers and train-spotters?
Dr John Campbell, at 9 mins: “If flights had been stopped a year ago, we would probably have never had this pandemic“.
youtube.com/watch?v=gRYFg-ZPs_U
Yes, if we had hermetically sealed the country in early January 2020, we would probably have avoided the plague
But what politician would have had the bravery and boldness (and foresight), to crater the economy, ruining several major industries (tourism, education, aviation) way back then, just because of a weird bug in Wuhan?
Or, using the SKS Hindsight Specs, we could have just nuked Wuhan from orbit. Ground zero their wet market.
Perhaps the next global pandemic will come from a moth-botherer somewhere in England.
"moth-botherer" Is that a thing in UK? Like twitchers and train-spotters?
Dr John Campbell, at 9 mins: “If flights had been stopped a year ago, we would probably have never had this pandemic“.
youtube.com/watch?v=gRYFg-ZPs_U
Yes, if we had hermetically sealed the country in early January 2020, we would probably have avoided the plague
But what politician would have had the bravery and boldness (and foresight), to crater the economy, ruining several major industries (tourism, education, aviation) way back then, just because of a weird bug in Wuhan?
Or, using the SKS Hindsight Specs, we could have just nuked Wuhan from orbit. Ground zero their wet market.
Or we could have killed every bat in the world, when we had the chance, in the 1970s. Everybody hated bats then.
Then HOW do you explain the popularity of the Queen Mother?
Dr John Campbell, at 9 mins: “If flights had been stopped a year ago, we would probably have never had this pandemic“.
youtube.com/watch?v=gRYFg-ZPs_U
Yes, if we had hermetically sealed the country in early January 2020, we would probably have avoided the plague
But what politician would have had the bravery and boldness (and foresight), to crater the economy, ruining several major industries (tourism, education, aviation) way back then, just because of a weird bug in Wuhan?
Or, using the SKS Hindsight Specs, we could have just nuked Wuhan from orbit. Ground zero their wet market.
Perhaps the next global pandemic will come from a moth-botherer somewhere in England.
"moth-botherer" Is that a thing in UK? Like twitchers and train-spotters?
We have "newt fanciers" so who knows..
Personally would think moth-botherers AND newt fanciers would draw adverse attention from the RSPCA?
Dr John Campbell, at 9 mins: “If flights had been stopped a year ago, we would probably have never had this pandemic“.
youtube.com/watch?v=gRYFg-ZPs_U
Yes, if we had hermetically sealed the country in early January 2020, we would probably have avoided the plague
But what politician would have had the bravery and boldness (and foresight), to crater the economy, ruining several major industries (tourism, education, aviation) way back then, just because of a weird bug in Wuhan?
Or, using the SKS Hindsight Specs, we could have just nuked Wuhan from orbit. Ground zero their wet market.
Perhaps the next global pandemic will come from a moth-botherer somewhere in England.
"moth-botherer" Is that a thing in UK? Like twitchers and train-spotters?
We have "newt fanciers" so who knows..
Personally would think moth-botherers AND newt fanciers would draw adverse attention from the RSPCA?
Dr John Campbell, at 9 mins: “If flights had been stopped a year ago, we would probably have never had this pandemic“.
youtube.com/watch?v=gRYFg-ZPs_U
Yes, if we had hermetically sealed the country in early January 2020, we would probably have avoided the plague
But what politician would have had the bravery and boldness (and foresight), to crater the economy, ruining several major industries (tourism, education, aviation) way back then, just because of a weird bug in Wuhan?
Or, using the SKS Hindsight Specs, we could have just nuked Wuhan from orbit. Ground zero their wet market.
Perhaps the next global pandemic will come from a moth-botherer somewhere in England.
"moth-botherer" Is that a thing in UK? Like twitchers and train-spotters?
I just made it up because @MarqueeMark has been known to post pictures of fancy moths from his garden.
Dr John Campbell, at 9 mins: “If flights had been stopped a year ago, we would probably have never had this pandemic“.
youtube.com/watch?v=gRYFg-ZPs_U
Yes, if we had hermetically sealed the country in early January 2020, we would probably have avoided the plague
But what politician would have had the bravery and boldness (and foresight), to crater the economy, ruining several major industries (tourism, education, aviation) way back then, just because of a weird bug in Wuhan?
Or, using the SKS Hindsight Specs, we could have just nuked Wuhan from orbit. Ground zero their wet market.
Perhaps the next global pandemic will come from a moth-botherer somewhere in England.
"moth-botherer" Is that a thing in UK? Like twitchers and train-spotters?
We have "newt fanciers" so who knows..
Personally would think moth-botherers AND newt fanciers would draw adverse attention from the RSPCA?
There's both a moth bothering trap and a newt bothering licence (yes, you need one) in this household.
Last time I did any moth-bothering 60 hornets turned up which brought a swift end to proceedings. In reality they aren't as aggressive as their smaller cousins but they do discourage close inspection.
Dr John Campbell, at 9 mins: “If flights had been stopped a year ago, we would probably have never had this pandemic“.
youtube.com/watch?v=gRYFg-ZPs_U
Yes, if we had hermetically sealed the country in early January 2020, we would probably have avoided the plague
But what politician would have had the bravery and boldness (and foresight), to crater the economy, ruining several major industries (tourism, education, aviation) way back then, just because of a weird bug in Wuhan?
Or, using the SKS Hindsight Specs, we could have just nuked Wuhan from orbit. Ground zero their wet market.
Perhaps the next global pandemic will come from a moth-botherer somewhere in England.
"moth-botherer" Is that a thing in UK? Like twitchers and train-spotters?
We have "newt fanciers" so who knows..
Personally would think moth-botherers AND newt fanciers would draw adverse attention from the RSPCA?
There's both a moth bothering trap and a newt bothering licence (yes, you need one) in this household.
Last time I did any moth-bothering 60 hornets turned up which brought a swift end to proceedings. In reality they aren't as aggressive as their smaller cousins but they do discourage close inspection.
Is there a legal difference between newt fanciers and newt botherers?!
Dr John Campbell, at 9 mins: “If flights had been stopped a year ago, we would probably have never had this pandemic“.
youtube.com/watch?v=gRYFg-ZPs_U
Yes, if we had hermetically sealed the country in early January 2020, we would probably have avoided the plague
But what politician would have had the bravery and boldness (and foresight), to crater the economy, ruining several major industries (tourism, education, aviation) way back then, just because of a weird bug in Wuhan?
Or, using the SKS Hindsight Specs, we could have just nuked Wuhan from orbit. Ground zero their wet market.
Perhaps the next global pandemic will come from a moth-botherer somewhere in England.
"moth-botherer" Is that a thing in UK? Like twitchers and train-spotters?
We have "newt fanciers" so who knows..
Personally would think moth-botherers AND newt fanciers would draw adverse attention from the RSPCA?
There's both a moth bothering trap and a newt bothering licence (yes, you need one) in this household.
Last time I did any moth-bothering 60 hornets turned up which brought a swift end to proceedings. In reality they aren't as aggressive as their smaller cousins but they do discourage close inspection.
Is there a legal difference between newt fanciers and newt botherers?!
Ken was a fancier. Usually involves keeping foreign things in a tank.
Botherers are the ones that go out at night with a torch looking for the things and put a stop to your housing development when they find one.
[Although these days it is quicker to take a pond water sample and test it for newt DNA]
Dr John Campbell, at 9 mins: “If flights had been stopped a year ago, we would probably have never had this pandemic“.
youtube.com/watch?v=gRYFg-ZPs_U
Yes, if we had hermetically sealed the country in early January 2020, we would probably have avoided the plague
But what politician would have had the bravery and boldness (and foresight), to crater the economy, ruining several major industries (tourism, education, aviation) way back then, just because of a weird bug in Wuhan?
Or, using the SKS Hindsight Specs, we could have just nuked Wuhan from orbit. Ground zero their wet market.
Perhaps the next global pandemic will come from a moth-botherer somewhere in England.
"moth-botherer" Is that a thing in UK? Like twitchers and train-spotters?
We have "newt fanciers" so who knows..
Personally would think moth-botherers AND newt fanciers would draw adverse attention from the RSPCA?
There's both a moth bothering trap and a newt bothering licence (yes, you need one) in this household.
Last time I did any moth-bothering 60 hornets turned up which brought a swift end to proceedings. In reality they aren't as aggressive as their smaller cousins but they do discourage close inspection.
Is there a legal difference between newt fanciers and newt botherers?!
Ken was a fancier. Usually involves keeping foreign things in a tank.
Botherers are the ones that go out at night with a torch and put a stop to your housing development when they find one.
[Actually, these days, it is quicker to take a pond water sample and test it for newt DNA]
Dr John Campbell, at 9 mins: “If flights had been stopped a year ago, we would probably have never had this pandemic“.
youtube.com/watch?v=gRYFg-ZPs_U
Yes, if we had hermetically sealed the country in early January 2020, we would probably have avoided the plague
But what politician would have had the bravery and boldness (and foresight), to crater the economy, ruining several major industries (tourism, education, aviation) way back then, just because of a weird bug in Wuhan?
Or, using the SKS Hindsight Specs, we could have just nuked Wuhan from orbit. Ground zero their wet market.
Perhaps the next global pandemic will come from a moth-botherer somewhere in England.
"moth-botherer" Is that a thing in UK? Like twitchers and train-spotters?
We have "newt fanciers" so who knows..
Personally would think moth-botherers AND newt fanciers would draw adverse attention from the RSPCA?
There's both a moth bothering trap and a newt bothering licence (yes, you need one) in this household.
Last time I did any moth-bothering 60 hornets turned up which brought a swift end to proceedings. In reality they aren't as aggressive as their smaller cousins but they do discourage close inspection.
Is there a legal difference between newt fanciers and newt botherers?!
Ken was a fancier. Usually involves keeping foreign things in a tank.
Botherers are the ones that go out at night with a torch and put a stop to your housing development when they find one.
[Actually, these days, it is quicker to take a pond water sample and test it for newt DNA]
OMG a whole world of newting I knew nothing about
It is quite an industry. There's even money to be made from newt fencing - used to keep the blighters out once you've 'relocated' them so that you can get on with digging.
Dr John Campbell, at 9 mins: “If flights had been stopped a year ago, we would probably have never had this pandemic“.
youtube.com/watch?v=gRYFg-ZPs_U
Yes, if we had hermetically sealed the country in early January 2020, we would probably have avoided the plague
But what politician would have had the bravery and boldness (and foresight), to crater the economy, ruining several major industries (tourism, education, aviation) way back then, just because of a weird bug in Wuhan?
Or, using the SKS Hindsight Specs, we could have just nuked Wuhan from orbit. Ground zero their wet market.
Perhaps the next global pandemic will come from a moth-botherer somewhere in England.
"moth-botherer" Is that a thing in UK? Like twitchers and train-spotters?
We have "newt fanciers" so who knows..
Personally would think moth-botherers AND newt fanciers would draw adverse attention from the RSPCA?
There's both a moth bothering trap and a newt bothering licence (yes, you need one) in this household.
Last time I did any moth-bothering 60 hornets turned up which brought a swift end to proceedings. In reality they aren't as aggressive as their smaller cousins but they do discourage close inspection.
Is there a legal difference between newt fanciers and newt botherers?!
Ken was a fancier. Usually involves keeping foreign things in a tank.
Botherers are the ones that go out at night with a torch and put a stop to your housing development when they find one.
[Actually, these days, it is quicker to take a pond water sample and test it for newt DNA]
OMG a whole world of newting I knew nothing about
It is quite an industry. There's even money to be made from newt fencing - used to keep the blighters out once you've 'relocated' them so that you can get on with digging.
All I know about newts is that young ones are called efts. I think I learnt that from Stephen Fry's novel "The Stars' Tennis Balls" (a really good modern rewrite of The Count Of Monte Cristo)
Dr John Campbell, at 9 mins: “If flights had been stopped a year ago, we would probably have never had this pandemic“.
youtube.com/watch?v=gRYFg-ZPs_U
Yes, if we had hermetically sealed the country in early January 2020, we would probably have avoided the plague
But what politician would have had the bravery and boldness (and foresight), to crater the economy, ruining several major industries (tourism, education, aviation) way back then, just because of a weird bug in Wuhan?
Or, using the SKS Hindsight Specs, we could have just nuked Wuhan from orbit. Ground zero their wet market.
Perhaps the next global pandemic will come from a moth-botherer somewhere in England.
"moth-botherer" Is that a thing in UK? Like twitchers and train-spotters?
I just made it up because @MarqueeMark has been known to post pictures of fancy moths from his garden.
some interesting discussions in the early hours...the Trump impeachment looking all a bit peripheral as the UK passes 100k covid deaths - I am not sure where this will end...sub 200K deaths would be a good result I fear.
I can't work out what the hell they are thinking....vaccines going well, lockdown seems to be working, Boris has managed to stay on message and not gone all sunny uplands are only weeks away....all they needed to do was copy the Australian scheme...literally copy n paste...no, lets try that airbridge thingie again but with hotels thrown in.
Johnson seems to have a real problem with the idea of almost completely suspending foreign travel, as if it wouldn't be the polite thing to do.
Boris' problem is he is unwilling to be disliked, Priti like Thatcher could not care less if people dislike her if she is doing the right thing
Yes but at a more mundane level, Boris takes exotic foreign holidays: does Priti?
The government travel advice is clear. No overseas holidays, only essential business trips allowed.
Making fitness videos for social media on a beach in Barbados or Dubai doesn’t really seem to fit the definition of essential work.
The hotel quarantine system needs to be on a white list basis. Quarantine is compulsory except for direct arrivals from Australia, NZ and one or two other countries.
Dr John Campbell, at 9 mins: “If flights had been stopped a year ago, we would probably have never had this pandemic“.
youtube.com/watch?v=gRYFg-ZPs_U
Yes, if we had hermetically sealed the country in early January 2020, we would probably have avoided the plague
But what politician would have had the bravery and boldness (and foresight), to crater the economy, ruining several major industries (tourism, education, aviation) way back then, just because of a weird bug in Wuhan?
But don't you agree that if we're going to lockdown the domestic population it makes sense to close the borders either beforehand or at least at the same time? I don't understand those who are in favour of a very strict domestic lockdown and at the same time have a relatively relaxed attitude to allowing people in and out of the country. That combination doesn't make any sense IMO.
On topic, I didn't expect enough GOP members to flip but I do wonder whether Rand Paul's move might provide a template for the rest of the party. Vote against the trial on the grounds that it's unconstitutional, then boycott the whole thing. That way you never have to cast a vote against Trump, you can run against the Democrats for ignoring the constitution and/or playing politics instead of dealing with more pressing issues, and he gets convicted 55-0 and you don't have to worry about the deluded old cretin running for your nomination again.
Dr John Campbell, at 9 mins: “If flights had been stopped a year ago, we would probably have never had this pandemic“.
youtube.com/watch?v=gRYFg-ZPs_U
Yes, if we had hermetically sealed the country in early January 2020, we would probably have avoided the plague
But what politician would have had the bravery and boldness (and foresight), to crater the economy, ruining several major industries (tourism, education, aviation) way back then, just because of a weird bug in Wuhan?
Or, using the SKS Hindsight Specs, we could have just nuked Wuhan from orbit. Ground zero their wet market.
Perhaps the next global pandemic will come from a moth-botherer somewhere in England.
"moth-botherer" Is that a thing in UK? Like twitchers and train-spotters?
I just made it up because @MarqueeMark has been known to post pictures of fancy moths from his garden.
Comments
But what politician would have had the bravery and boldness (and foresight), to crater the economy, ruining several major industries (tourism, education, aviation) way back then, just because of a weird bug in Wuhan?
As I've said, I'm not criticising Pfizer but trying to understand how Handelsblatt fucked up quite so badly.
I have a confidence interval of 92-100% that this is the explanation for the Handesblatt fuck-up. Someone seized on a mad lower bound (8%) for oldsters, took it as a central prediction, and willfully or not passed this total misinterpretation on to a gullible journalist, who is now desperate to save his reputation and career, by slowly walking it all back.
As for the Democatic gov, he's been criticized for weakness, but is also dealing with (as you note) a really challenging legislature chock full o'nuts.
Why so nut? The Badger State is (like an actual badger) quirky, stubborn, inclined to get its way AND also be a pest.
A few historical examples:
> during the US Civil War, the young state of Wisconsin contributed a large share of the troops to one of the Union Army's most famous fighting formations, the Iron Brigade.
> the state produced not one but two generals noted for fighting the enemy AND their own leadership; Gen. Arthur MacArthur who won the Congressional Medal of Honor in the Civil War and fought in Philippine "Insurection", and his son Douglas MacArthur, who fought the German Army in WWI, the Bonus Army in Washington DC, the Japanese Army in WWII, and North Korean Army and Chinese "Volunteers" in Korea.
> politically famous as home base of Robert La Follette, reform prosecutor, governor and US Senator who broke the power of railroads & other land-pirates in state government, replaced bossed conventions with popular primaries, introduced voter initiative and referendum in Wisconsin and nationally, opposed US entry into WWI, then broke with Republican Party in 1924 to run for president as a progressive; he won just one state: Wisconsin; after his death his sons extended the family's political clout in the state for another generation.
> also home of Sen. "Tail-Gunner" Joe McCarthy, who became a national celebrity and Republican party power-broker; fierce anti-communist fond of totalitarian methods, a proto-Trumpsky
> has also elected some notable, and sometimes slightly weird Democrats, for example Sen. William Proximre who was famous for his Golden Fleece Awards to the most wasteful government spending he ran into each year.
> speaking of Democrats, one of the surprises of the 1964 Democratic primary was the strong vote for southern segregationist Gov. George Wallace of Alabama; one of the first major evidences of "White backlash" in US politics during the 1960s and 70s. On the other hand, it was scene of epic primary victories by liberals Eugene McCarthy in 1968 and George McGovern in 1972 - and centrists Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992.
> in last decade has been highly polarized and deeply divided, major battleground between labor & progressives versus corporations & conservatives, resulting in close elections and highly divisive politics.
> almost forgot two other great examples: Green Bay Packers; and socialism in Milwaukee personified by Victor Berger, Socialist Party congressman expelled for his radicalism then re-elected overwhelmingly.
> Plus one of few rural states that had civil war draft riots, also a bunch of Cheeseheads!
https://vf.politicalbetting.com/discussion/comment/2841726/#Comment_2841726
"The arrival of Tony Blair on the scene in 1997 was another set-back for the well-known newt-fancier."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-11400442
Last time I did any moth-bothering 60 hornets turned up which brought a swift end to proceedings. In reality they aren't as aggressive as their smaller cousins but they do discourage close inspection.
Botherers are the ones that go out at night with a torch looking for the things and put a stop to your housing development when they find one.
[Although these days it is quicker to take a pond water sample and test it for newt DNA]
https://www.newt-fencing.com/
Making fitness videos for social media on a beach in Barbados or Dubai doesn’t really seem to fit the definition of essential work.
The hotel quarantine system needs to be on a white list basis. Quarantine is compulsory except for direct arrivals from Australia, NZ and one or two other countries.