The polling that shows that Boris is NOT the right UK leader to protect the union – politicalbetting

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The polling that shows that Boris is NOT the right UK leader to protect the union – politicalbetting.com

The above polling chart is from Ipsos MORI’s last all Scotland poll which admittedly took place in October. I doubt very much whether the figures have changed much since and hopefully we’ll see its next all Scotland poll in February.

Read the full story here

Floater

1st?

MarqueeMark

We have had the vaccine roll-out since October, so no doubt the Scots will be very grateful for Boris having-

What am I saying?

Mexicanpete

I do wonder if Nicola's push for Independence is a handy device to deflect from her and her husband's current "issues" over Salmond.

Morris_Dancer

https://twitter.com/christiancalgie/status/1354001240737386496

MikeSmithson

MarqueeMark said:

We have had the vaccine roll-out since October, so no doubt the Scots will be very grateful for Boris having-

What am I saying?

October?

ydoethur

Mexicanpete said:

I do wonder if Nicola's push for Independence is a handy device to deflect from her and her husband's current "issues" over Salmond.

The SNP leaders both look pretty fishy right now.

But then, they always sounded fishy anyway.

Floater

MarqueeMark said:

We have had the vaccine roll-out since October, so no doubt the Scots will be very grateful for Boris having-

What am I saying?

Scotland would prefer to be in the EU scheme..........

Sandpit

That German newspaper needs to quickly replace the online copy of its article with a retraction of the story, before AZ’s lawyers wake up.

Floater

https://twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1353999730783772672

MarqueeMark

MikeSmithson said:

MarqueeMark said:

We have had the vaccine roll-out since October, so no doubt the Scots will be very grateful for Boris having-

What am I saying?

October?

"The above polling chart is from Ipsos MORI’s last all Scotland poll which admittedly took place in October." Your words, OGH!

tlg86

This deserves to be re-posted:

Andy_Cooke said:

I could see something going like:
“We don’t really have sufficient data on efficacy for older age groups. Only 8% were in that group”

“Only 8%?”

“Yes. So we’re only approving it for the under 65s at the moment.”

.... and then someone goes away with the 8% figure and assumes it was the efficacy for the older group.

ydoethur

Sandpit said:

That German newspaper needs to quickly replace the online copy of its article with a retraction of the story, before AZ’s lawyers wake up.

Who was that idiot who was tweeting a defence of the story claiming ‘it’s all true but I can’t give you the evidence?’

Because I suspect he is going to be looking for a new employer before the day is out.

Nigel_Foremain

Nationalism is a poisonous divisive creed, but you have to admire Sturgeon's political ability, in particular he ability to put a veneer of respectability on said creed. The fact that the Scots think Bozo is hopeless is not surprising, though largely deserved, much of it may be explained by him fitting the stereotype that the English-haters in Scotland (there are a lot of them) think of when they imagine an English Tory.

I personally think devo-max++ is the answer. It does mean that the Scots then cherry pick the bits they like about the Union (mainly the financial support), but it saves a Brexit divorce type calamity where everyone is a loser.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Foremain, would you couple that with more powers for the Welsh/an English Parliament?

tlg86

https://twitter.com/Stephenh61/status/1354000068899184640

CarlottaVance

Sandpit said:

That German newspaper needs to quickly replace the online copy of its article with a retraction of the story, before AZ’s lawyers wake up.

Still up: https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/pandemie-bekaempfung-rueckschlag-bei-corona-impfstoff-astra-zeneca-vakzin-wirkt-bei-senioren-offenbar-kaum/26849788.html

FF43

More on this topic in this thread here. Politico article referenced

https://twitter.com/jamesjohnson252/status/1353721312880029697

BluestBlue

Morris_Dancer said:

https://twitter.com/christiancalgie/status/1354001240737386496

Less 'Acht' and more 'Achtung!' would seem to be in order for these alleged journalists.

Casino_Royale

On one thing I agree with Boris: there shouldnt be a referendum whilst he's Prime Minister.

He's worth a 2-3% swing to Yes all by himself.

Dura_Ace

Johnson is throwing the defence budget at his doomed attempt to save the Union. The RAF has a had a long standing strategy of making Waddo the ISTAR hub but 8 Squadron have just been told that when they transition to E-7 they are off to sunny Moray.

This will probably make Lossie the busiest air base in Western Europe. They'll have 4 x Typhoon, 2 x P-8 and 1 x E-7 squadrons plus assorted hangers on.

There's also been a £30m bung to Spirit Aero in Belfast for some fanciful UAS project this week.

Malmesbury

Sandpit said:

That German newspaper needs to quickly replace the online copy of its article with a retraction of the story, before AZ’s lawyers wake up.

Well, it's going to make the next discussion with AZ and the EU a bit more interesting....

Sandpit

tlg86 said:

This deserves to be re-posted:

Andy_Cooke said:

I could see something going like:
“We don’t really have sufficient data on efficacy for older age groups. Only 8% were in that group”

“Only 8%?”

“Yes. So we’re only approving it for the under 65s at the moment.”

.... and then someone goes away with the 8% figure and assumes it was the efficacy for the older group.

Yep, @Andy_Cooke called it right. The 8% figure was for the proportion of over 65s involved in the trial.

At the very best, it’s a mis-translation and a negligent failure to double-source.

At worst, it’s a massive vindication for the anti-vax movement that will cost tens of thousands of European lives.

DavidL

MarqueeMark said:

We have had the vaccine roll-out since October, so no doubt the Scots will be very grateful for Boris having-

What am I saying?

They should be. They're not. Ditto for furlough. Ditto for health spending. The UK government is very poor at claiming credit for anything in Scotland. In contrast the Scottish government is highly skilled at offloading blame. But the speed and competence of the Scottish rollout of the UK vaccine is worth keeping an eye on. An NHS and administration more incompetent and slower than Wales really should raise an eyebrow or two.

glw

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

That German newspaper needs to quickly replace the online copy of its article with a retraction of the story, before AZ’s lawyers wake up.

Who was that idiot who was tweeting a defence of the story claiming ‘it’s all true but I can’t give you the evidence?’

Because I suspect he is going to be looking for a new employer before the day is out.

I bloody well hope so, because he is clearly incapable himself of understanding the figures — several people here came up with plausible altenatives like confidence intervals or the size of the cohort which he should have considered — and then he doubled down on the story when asked to explain himself. Most importantly though, he has spread a false and very damaging story. He deserves to lose his job.

CarlottaVance

Looks like the Germans have confirmed what the UK said last night:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1353970931199184896?s=20

Philip_Thompson

Off topic is the Deadpool still going? Did anyone have Larry King?

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Burgessian said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Allegedly Shagger will announce some kind of constitutional commission. If I thought this (a) would be a genuine attempt at reform and (b) it would actually recommend the remaking of this country to be at least fit for the 21st century and (c) that such recommendations would be implemented, I would back it.

In reality, its *this* government proposing it. A government who tried to go back on its own key manifesto pledge. With a PM and cabinet comprised of sacked liars, demonstrable fools and Theresa "I didn't say that" Coffey. Someone of the stature of Blair or Thatcher proposing it? Perhaps, but neither did.

So its going to come down a battle of wills. If the electorate return an SNP government on a manifesto of holding an independence referendum, then either Westminster says "we don't care what you think" and thus guarantees independence the minute they are removed from power, or as @Philip_Thompson rightly suggests, tackles it head on.

Ironically many of the factual reasons why Sindy is a bad idea can be demonstrated by the real world impacts of Brexit. As we know, real world practicalities aren't why people vote, and the "that could be Bad" arguments can be batted aside as the people saying that were saying the opposite with regards to Brexit.

Philip Thompson is wrong.

In 2017 the Spanish conservative government denied the Catalan nationalist majority government even one independence referendum, 4 years later Catalonia is still part of Spain and support for independence there is falling

Is your ambition to get Scotland to vote to stay in the UK because they want to stay - or to beat them into submission with violence?

The UK is not Spain or China.

The point Philip, is that support for Indy has fallen in Catalonia once the Spanish made it clear it was off the table. People have moved on. It's not inconceivable that the same could happen in Scotland, though it will be handled very differently, of course.

It's pretty obvious that there are talks behind the scene with the likes of Gordon Brown, so it will be a No, plus a constitutional commission to report some years in the future when Boris and Nicola have left the scene. Will it provoke a Caledonian insurgency and riots in Inverness? Don't think so.

This scenario is why the SNP is seething internally and Nicola has had to go along with this scheme which is immensely risky (as she knows only too well).

No the point is that Spain turned violent to suppress the Catalans. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-41463955

Is the UK going to do that? Should the UK do that?

Is it worth keeping Scotland in the UK if the only way to do so is to sell your soul and turn violent against your fellow Brits?

In 2017 92% of Catalans voted for independence on a 43% turnout, the Spanish government correctly refused to recognise the result of that unconstitutional referendum, Catalonia is still part of Spain and support for independence there is now falling

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Catalan_independence_referendum

How do you define support for independence falling?

February 2020: Yes 44%, No 49%, no lead by 5%
March 2020: Yes 44.9%, No 47.1%, no lead by 2.2%
Sept 2020: Yes 45.2%, No 46.7%, same pollster as February, no lead reduced to 1.5%
Oct 2020: Yes 45.5%, No 46.3%, same pollster as March, no lead reduced to 0.8%

Support for independence has gone up not down over the past 12 months and almost eliminated the No lead.

ydoethur

DavidL said:

MarqueeMark said:

We have had the vaccine roll-out since October, so no doubt the Scots will be very grateful for Boris having-

What am I saying?

An NHS and administration more incompetent and slower than Wales really should raise an eyebrow or two.

It is actually impossible to imagine that scenario. They might possibly be as bad, if they work hard at it.

Sandpit

Casino_Royale said:

On one thing I agree with Boris: there shouldnt be a referendum whilst he's Prime Minister.

He's worth a 2-3% swing to Yes all by himself.

The Nats want to frame the debate with the PM’s name all over it - which is why his refusal needs to be via a free vote in Parliament, rather than anything more personal.

It’s not Johnson refusing the referendum, it’s Parliament refusing it.

MarqueeMark

Those crazy laid-back Dutch still violently objecting to being prevented from going about their (un)lawful normal lives:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55799919

tlg86

The "we're just reporting what a politician says" line only works if you name the politician. I wonder if they'll say who was making the dodgy claim to argue that that's what they were really reporting?

https://twitter.com/washingtonski/status/1353841883840184320

Foss

Nigel_Foremain said:

Nationalism is a poisonous divisive creed, but you have to admire Sturgeon's political ability, in particular he ability to put a veneer of respectability on said creed. The fact that the Scots think Bozo is hopeless is not surprising, though largely deserved, much of it may be explained by him fitting the stereotype that the English-haters in Scotland (there are a lot of them) think of when they imagine an English Tory.

I personally think devo-max++ is the answer. It does mean that the Scots then cherry pick the bits they like about the Union (mainly the financial support), but it saves a Brexit divorce type calamity where everyone is a loser.

And will the rest of us get a say in this? I suspect a good number in England would prefer full seperation over shovelling cash for just a few less lines on a map.

geoffw

On Sunday I knew only one couple who had had the inoculation here in Edinburgh. Today I know of half a dozen who have had it or have appointments for it. All in the over 80s bracket. The roll-out is proceeding apace and everyone knows who secured the vaccines which don't have a tartan label.

CarlottaVance

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

That German newspaper needs to quickly replace the online copy of its article with a retraction of the story, before AZ’s lawyers wake up.

Who was that idiot who was tweeting a defence of the story claiming ‘it’s all true but I can’t give you the evidence?’

Because I suspect he is going to be looking for a new employer before the day is out.

https://twitter.com/washingtonski/status/1353841883840184320?s=20

NickPalmer

A friend asks for advice. Her daughter works for the Atomic Energy Authority as a middle-ranking engineer (I don't know more than that) and enjoys it, but is always up for new challenges. She's been offered a job at similar salary for Babcock working on the Dreadnought submarine development. She finds both jobs interesting, and is fairly mobile. Which employer is likely to offer the more secure future?

TrèsDifficile

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

That German newspaper needs to quickly replace the online copy of its article with a retraction of the story, before AZ’s lawyers wake up.

Who was that idiot who was tweeting a defence of the story claiming ‘it’s all true but I can’t give you the evidence?’

Because I suspect he is going to be looking for a new employer before the day is out.

Still proudly unretracted
https://twitter.com/washingtonski

Mexicanpete

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

I do wonder if Nicola's push for Independence is a handy device to deflect from her and her husband's current "issues" over Salmond.

The SNP leaders both look pretty fishy right now.

But then, they always sounded fishy anyway.

I tee them up and you just smash them down the fairway-straight and true!

MarqueeMark

CarlottaVance said:

Looks like the Germans have confirmed what the UK said last night:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1353970931199184896?s=20

Somebody wanting to be famous as the go-to guy for anti-vaxxer journalism. Or just dumb as a brick with numbers. Not that there's much between the two...

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1354006295637078016?s=20

DavidL

ydoethur said:

DavidL said:

MarqueeMark said:

We have had the vaccine roll-out since October, so no doubt the Scots will be very grateful for Boris having-

What am I saying?

An NHS and administration more incompetent and slower than Wales really should raise an eyebrow or two.

It is actually impossible to imagine that scenario. They might possibly be as bad, if they work hard at it.

I am relying on @Malmesbury's excellent charts but having run along the bottom with Wales we now seem to have the slowest rate of inoculation of the 4 nations by quite a margin. As I say, worth keeping an eye on.

Mexicanpete

MarqueeMark said:

Those crazy laid-back Dutch still violently objecting to being prevented from going about their (un)lawful normal lives:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55799919

Don't they say, one of the side effects of too much weed is a confrontational attitude?

MarqueeMark

NickPalmer said:

A friend asks for advice. Her daughter works for the Atomic Energy Authority as a middle-ranking engineer (I don't know more than that) and enjoys it, but is always up for new challenges. She's been offered a job at similar salary for Babcock working on the Dreadnought submarine development. She finds both jobs interesting, and is fairly mobile. Which employer is likely to offer the more secure future?

AEA lkely to be less impacted by an incoming Labour government?

Morris_Dancer

Mr. Foss, if such a move were matched by corresponding powers for Wales and the establishment of an English Parliament it might work well.

If not, then your suggestion of antagonism elsewhere is likely to come true. I was surprised at one of our recent various general elections when my mother was so angered by Scottish pensioners getting something or other (can't recall what) that wouldn't be available in England.

BannedinnParis

MarqueeMark said:

NickPalmer said:

A friend asks for advice. Her daughter works for the Atomic Energy Authority as a middle-ranking engineer (I don't know more than that) and enjoys it, but is always up for new challenges. She's been offered a job at similar salary for Babcock working on the Dreadnought submarine development. She finds both jobs interesting, and is fairly mobile. Which employer is likely to offer the more secure future?

AEA lkely to be less impacted by an incoming Labour government?

thought we were talking about likely?

Sandpit

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

That German newspaper needs to quickly replace the online copy of its article with a retraction of the story, before AZ’s lawyers wake up.

Still up: https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/pandemie-bekaempfung-rueckschlag-bei-corona-impfstoff-astra-zeneca-vakzin-wirkt-bei-senioren-offenbar-kaum/26849788.html

If I were the publisher of such a respected organ, I think I’d be wanting the editor’s head on a plate this morning. Not necessarily in a metaphorical sense, either!

LostPassword

Mexicanpete said:

I do wonder if Nicola's push for Independence is a handy device to deflect from her and her husband's current "issues" over Salmond.

She has to push for Independence because:
(1) She wants Independence and if not now, when?
(2) Her party would not follow her if she advocated waiting for a matter opportunity.

david_herdson

Mike is right. But Sturgeon is more vulnerable than those figures make her look. Her public performance on Covid has been assured but the outcomes have been almost as bad as those in England (and worse than NI). She is vulnerable to attack there, especially from Scottish Lab and LD, who don't have the problem of whataboutery that the Scottish Cons would.

And then there's the Salmond issue, dividing the SNP and which is a messy and tawdry story which in normal times would certainly have had the potential to bring her down (and still may).

There is a positive case to be made for the Union - and the Covid vaccine rollout is doing it well - but there's also a strong argument to hit Sturgeon hard wherever possible too.

ydoethur

TrèsDifficile said:

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

That German newspaper needs to quickly replace the online copy of its article with a retraction of the story, before AZ’s lawyers wake up.

Who was that idiot who was tweeting a defence of the story claiming ‘it’s all true but I can’t give you the evidence?’

Because I suspect he is going to be looking for a new employer before the day is out.

Still proudly unretracted
https://twitter.com/washingtonski

Distinctly unfortunate twitter handle. Makes him sounds like a Russian bot causing trouble in DC.

Mexicanpete

LostPassword said:

Mexicanpete said:

I do wonder if Nicola's push for Independence is a handy device to deflect from her and her husband's current "issues" over Salmond.

She has to push for Independence because:
(1) She wants Independence and if not now, when?
(2) Her party would not follow her if she advocated waiting for a matter opportunity.

As the heat is turned up, particularly on her husband, it is nonetheless a convenient "look squirrel" strategy.

MarqueeMark

CarlottaVance said:

ydoethur said:

Sandpit said:

That German newspaper needs to quickly replace the online copy of its article with a retraction of the story, before AZ’s lawyers wake up.

Who was that idiot who was tweeting a defence of the story claiming ‘it’s all true but I can’t give you the evidence?’

Because I suspect he is going to be looking for a new employer before the day is out.

https://twitter.com/washingtonski/status/1353841883840184320?s=20

Twitter. For twats, by twats.

Now, with added death risk!

Nigel_Foremain

MarqueeMark said:

CarlottaVance said:

Looks like the Germans have confirmed what the UK said last night:

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1353970931199184896?s=20

Somebody wanting to be famous as the go-to guy for anti-vaxxer journalism. Or just dumb as a brick with numbers. Not that there's much between the two...

It is all a storm in a tea cup and being particularly stirred by those with pathetic nationalistic/chauvinistic tendencies in both EU countries and the UK. This type of posturing is not going to help anyone. The UK is very fortunate as it has a genuinely world leading pharma industry. The Germans were fortunate earlier in the pandemic because they have a world leading diagnostic industry combined with an efficient local government system.

Countries need to stop childishly crowing about good fortune and work together for the greater good of humanity. Politicians and those that support them need to at least pretend to have some humility

BluestBlue

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

That German newspaper needs to quickly replace the online copy of its article with a retraction of the story, before AZ’s lawyers wake up.

Still up: https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/pandemie-bekaempfung-rueckschlag-bei-corona-impfstoff-astra-zeneca-vakzin-wirkt-bei-senioren-offenbar-kaum/26849788.html

If I were the publisher of such a respected organ, I think I’d be wanting the editor’s head on a plate this morning. Not necessarily in a metaphorical sense, either!

The sacking of their new data analysis intern Diana Abbotz certainly wouldn't go amiss...

DavidL

david_herdson said:

Mike is right. But Sturgeon is more vulnerable than those figures make her look. Her public performance on Covid has been assured but the outcomes have been almost as bad as those in England (and worse than NI). She is vulnerable to attack there, especially from Scottish Lab and LD, who don't have the problem of whataboutery that the Scottish Cons would.

And then there's the Salmond issue, dividing the SNP and which is a messy and tawdry story which in normal times would certainly have had the potential to bring her down (and still may).

There is a positive case to be made for the Union - and the Covid vaccine rollout is doing it well - but there's also a strong argument to hit Sturgeon hard wherever possible too.

Personally I think that the SNP pulling Sturgeon down could well be dragging defeat from the jaws of victory. They should definitely go for it is my impartial advice 😉 Replacing her with some raving nutter would make the administration of Scotland even poorer than it is already but it would be a price worth paying.

Nigel_Foremain

Mexicanpete said:

ydoethur said:

Mexicanpete said:

I do wonder if Nicola's push for Independence is a handy device to deflect from her and her husband's current "issues" over Salmond.

The SNP leaders both look pretty fishy right now.

But then, they always sounded fishy anyway.

I tee them up and you just smash them down the fairway-straight and true!

Probably not as fishy as politicians in Fin-land perhaps?

Mexicanpete

geoffw said:

On Sunday I knew only one couple who had had the inoculation here in Edinburgh. Today I know of half a dozen who have had it or have appointments for it. All in the over 80s bracket. The roll-out is proceeding apace and everyone knows who secured the vaccines which don't have a tartan label.

The NHS?

Philip_Thompson

david_herdson said:

Mike is right. But Sturgeon is more vulnerable than those figures make her look. Her public performance on Covid has been assured but the outcomes have been almost as bad as those in England (and worse than NI). She is vulnerable to attack there, especially from Scottish Lab and LD, who don't have the problem of whataboutery that the Scottish Cons would.

And then there's the Salmond issue, dividing the SNP and which is a messy and tawdry story which in normal times would certainly have had the potential to bring her down (and still may).

There is a positive case to be made for the Union - and the Covid vaccine rollout is doing it well - but there's also a strong argument to hit Sturgeon hard wherever possible too.

You expect the Labour and Liberal Democrat parties to be able to successfully throw stones over devolved healthcare outcomes?

Considering those parties are in charge of Wales has Wales been a stunning success compared to Scotland? 🤔

williamglenn

Handelsblatt still hasn’t stopped digging. They’re now reporting the AZ denial as if it’s an “on the one hand, on the other hand” story.
https://twitter.com/handelsblatt/status/1353992634570854402?s=21

Nigel_Foremain

NickPalmer said:

A friend asks for advice. Her daughter works for the Atomic Energy Authority as a middle-ranking engineer (I don't know more than that) and enjoys it, but is always up for new challenges. She's been offered a job at similar salary for Babcock working on the Dreadnought submarine development. She finds both jobs interesting, and is fairly mobile. Which employer is likely to offer the more secure future?

Individuals tend to make their own security now. I would say the employer that offers her the best training and development that will expand her mind and her CV will be the best option. That way if she is made redundant at any time she is in a better place to bounce back. There are no jobs for life now unless you become a doctor.

Sandpit

BluestBlue said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

That German newspaper needs to quickly replace the online copy of its article with a retraction of the story, before AZ’s lawyers wake up.

Still up: https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/pandemie-bekaempfung-rueckschlag-bei-corona-impfstoff-astra-zeneca-vakzin-wirkt-bei-senioren-offenbar-kaum/26849788.html

If I were the publisher of such a respected organ, I think I’d be wanting the editor’s head on a plate this morning. Not necessarily in a metaphorical sense, either!

The sacking of their new data analysis intern Diana Abbotz certainly wouldn't go amiss...

It’s actually quite surprising it’s taken this long for a newspaper to make such a monumental screw-up over the pandemic. I was pretty sure one of the UK papers would have done it by now, but they seem to have mostly swerved it by leading with crappy opinion pieces rather than crappy fact pieces.

swing_voter

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

Mike is right. But Sturgeon is more vulnerable than those figures make her look. Her public performance on Covid has been assured but the outcomes have been almost as bad as those in England (and worse than NI). She is vulnerable to attack there, especially from Scottish Lab and LD, who don't have the problem of whataboutery that the Scottish Cons would.

And then there's the Salmond issue, dividing the SNP and which is a messy and tawdry story which in normal times would certainly have had the potential to bring her down (and still may).

There is a positive case to be made for the Union - and the Covid vaccine rollout is doing it well - but there's also a strong argument to hit Sturgeon hard wherever possible too.

Personally I think that the SNP pulling Sturgeon down could well be dragging defeat from the jaws of victory. They should definitely go for it is my impartial advice 😉 Replacing her with some raving nutter would make the administration of Scotland even poorer than it is already but it would be a price worth paying.

the SNP really need to go for it while BJ is Prime Minister - they sense perhaps that he is no around for the next GE (there's plenty who'd agree) so this could be their best chance - early Brexit turbulence and a deeply unpopular English PM.....

Theuniondivvie

geoffw said:

On Sunday I knew only one couple who had had the inoculation here in Edinburgh. Today I know of half a dozen who have had it or have appointments for it. All in the over 80s bracket. The roll-out is proceeding apace and everyone knows who secured the vaccines which don't have a tartan label.

Are many of your over 80s acquaintances in douce Edinburgh currently Yes voters ready to be wooed by the BJ vax? If so, that would be quite remarkable, statistically speaking.

MattW

On topic: Thanks, Mike.

FPT:

ydoethur said:

You may remember that yesterday I expressed surprise at the death rate among teaching staff being similar to the community outside, despite the infection rate being triple.

Turns out there are two reasons for this figure.

One is that on the whole teachers are younger than the population at large (something to do with 40% of staff leaving the profession within five years of qualifying).

The other is that the government deliberately excluded all staff over the age of 64, which meant they excluded half of all deaths among school staff, but compared the rate to the population as a whole.

Which is extraordinary. Not only is that blatantly criminal - even by the dreadful standards set by Williamson and Gibb - but were they really so dumb as to think nobody would notice?

I can only hope that the judge gives them all life sentences.

https://www.tes.com/news/covid-teacher-deaths-double-when-over-64s-are-added

That TES piece is based on an Eoin Clarke special (renamed himself to 'Toryfibs' after the Eoin Clarke 'Blizzard of apologies to people he lied about' incident. I'm still blocked 9 years later.). Handle with extreme care.

The stats are also not DES stats, they are ONS stats. Govt did not exclude older (how many active teachers are there over 64 currently working in schools?) to manipulate figures, ONS did because reliable stats do not exist, and explicitly warn that the over-65 stats are provisional.

And the TES have not claimed a deliberate Govt intention to deceive. Nor has Eoin (used to call himself Dr Eoin when he was publishing 'health stats'; Phd is in Feminist History); he knows he'd be skewered if he did.

ONS compared 20-64 age group secondary school teachers to other professionals in the same age group, because they are the only ones for whom comparable statistics are available. They found teachers to be at a *lower* risk of death from COVID (at a 5% significance) level. Significance vanishes when extended to all education related staff.

ONS keep the over 65s provisional figures separate as it is not clear who they represent - are many retired etc?

Eoin just conflates the whole lot, with no commentary, to excite his followers. IMO TES have been suckered; the underlying story is only that ONS have left some stuff out of an analysis that cannot include that stuff, and there are is some outrage about that.

I guess it could be argued that there should be a separate story about it.

ONS commentary:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19relateddeathsbyoccupationenglandandwales/deathsregisteredbetween9marchand28december2020#deaths-involving-covid-19-in-teaching-and-educational-professionals

If there is one conclusion I'd hazard it is that teachers of working age are safer because vulnerables are shielding, and perhaps can afford to as still paid (?).

Slackbladder

If They have to give a referendum, they should do what frankly should have been done with Brexit, have a pre- referendum agreement on the nature of the deal. What currency is used, what the settlement of finances are, what the border agreement would be etc etc.

Should take about 4 years to sit down and agree, and then we can have the referendum on it.

FF43

david_herdson said:

Mike is right. But Sturgeon is more vulnerable than those figures make her look. Her public performance on Covid has been assured but the outcomes have been almost as bad as those in England (and worse than NI). She is vulnerable to attack there, especially from Scottish Lab and LD, who don't have the problem of whataboutery that the Scottish Cons would.

And then there's the Salmond issue, dividing the SNP and which is a messy and tawdry story which in normal times would certainly have had the potential to bring her down (and still may).

There is a positive case to be made for the Union - and the Covid vaccine rollout is doing it well - but there's also a strong argument to hit Sturgeon hard wherever possible too.

Case, death and hospitalisation rates in Scotland have been running at half the English levels for some time now. That's a big difference in outcomes. Sturgeon has made some bad mistakes on Covid, as has Johnson, Sturgeon seems capable of learning from her mistakes, while Johnson keeps making the same mistakes again and again, with the result that tens of thousands of people will die, who would otherwise live.

The SNP are perfectly capable of mucking up, but almost no-one so far has made money betting on them doing so.

DavidL

swing_voter said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

Mike is right. But Sturgeon is more vulnerable than those figures make her look. Her public performance on Covid has been assured but the outcomes have been almost as bad as those in England (and worse than NI). She is vulnerable to attack there, especially from Scottish Lab and LD, who don't have the problem of whataboutery that the Scottish Cons would.

And then there's the Salmond issue, dividing the SNP and which is a messy and tawdry story which in normal times would certainly have had the potential to bring her down (and still may).

There is a positive case to be made for the Union - and the Covid vaccine rollout is doing it well - but there's also a strong argument to hit Sturgeon hard wherever possible too.

Personally I think that the SNP pulling Sturgeon down could well be dragging defeat from the jaws of victory. They should definitely go for it is my impartial advice 😉 Replacing her with some raving nutter would make the administration of Scotland even poorer than it is already but it would be a price worth paying.

the SNP really need to go for it while BJ is Prime Minister - they sense perhaps that he is no around for the next GE (there's plenty who'd agree) so this could be their best chance - early Brexit turbulence and a deeply unpopular English PM.....

People were convinced that Cameron was deeply unpopular up here too and that the austerity policies of Osborne were going to prove fatal. They were wrong.

I am not saying that people don't vote for stupid and sentimental reasons but the Union is about a lot more than the identity of the PM of the day at any particular point.

FeersumEnjineeya

The EU is clearly deeply pissed off with AstraZeneca. They want to know why EU orders are not being fulfilled when others, to the UK, for example, are, especially in view of the fact that the EU helped to finance the development and production of the vaccine.

https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/astrazeneca-impfstoff-probleme-101.html

Nigel_Foremain

Mexicanpete said:

geoffw said:

On Sunday I knew only one couple who had had the inoculation here in Edinburgh. Today I know of half a dozen who have had it or have appointments for it. All in the over 80s bracket. The roll-out is proceeding apace and everyone knows who secured the vaccines which don't have a tartan label.

The NHS?

I don't give much credit to the government or the NHS for us being ahead of the curve when it comes to vaccination. I think if anyone is to take credit for our good fortune it is the folk at the outstandingly good MHRA and the scientists in Oxford and Astra Zeneca.

david_herdson

Philip_Thompson said:

david_herdson said:

Mike is right. But Sturgeon is more vulnerable than those figures make her look. Her public performance on Covid has been assured but the outcomes have been almost as bad as those in England (and worse than NI). She is vulnerable to attack there, especially from Scottish Lab and LD, who don't have the problem of whataboutery that the Scottish Cons would.

And then there's the Salmond issue, dividing the SNP and which is a messy and tawdry story which in normal times would certainly have had the potential to bring her down (and still may).

There is a positive case to be made for the Union - and the Covid vaccine rollout is doing it well - but there's also a strong argument to hit Sturgeon hard wherever possible too.

You expect the Labour and Liberal Democrat parties to be able to successfully throw stones over devolved healthcare outcomes?

Considering those parties are in charge of Wales has Wales been a stunning success compared to Scotland? 🤔

If they can drag Sturgeon down to their level, yes. I don't honestly think that level of whataboutery will fly. Tying the SCons to Boris will have some effect but the Welsh parties are too obscure.

The point is that it's the SNP in charge. I don't think they can dodge that by going "look - Aberystwyth"

Nigelb

Dura_Ace said:

Johnson is throwing the defence budget at his doomed attempt to save the Union. The RAF has a had a long standing strategy of making Waddo the ISTAR hub but 8 Squadron have just been told that when they transition to E-7 they are off to sunny Moray.

This will probably make Lossie the busiest air base in Western Europe. They'll have 4 x Typhoon, 2 x P-8 and 1 x E-7 squadrons plus assorted hangers on.

There's also been a £30m bung to Spirit Aero in Belfast for some fanciful UAS project this week.

This at a time when Lockheed is seeing an upturn in demand for the F35B, as there are concerns about the survivability of airfields in future conflicts ?

DavidL

FeersumEnjineeya said:

The EU is clearly deeply pissed off with AstraZeneca. They want to know why EU orders are not being fulfilled when others, to the UK, for example, are, especially in view of the fact that the EU helped to finance the development and production of the vaccine.

https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/astrazeneca-impfstoff-probleme-101.html

I am just having a wild stab here, but maybe because we paid them a premium to be first when the EU was still dicking about saying that they couldn't enter contracts until the vaccine had been improved by their oh so slow regulator?

ydoethur

And my response, also from previous thread:

MattW said:

ydoethur said:

You may remember that yesterday I expressed surprise at the death rate among teaching staff being similar to the community outside, despite the infection rate being triple.

Turns out there are two reasons for this figure.

One is that on the whole teachers are younger than the population at large (something to do with 40% of staff leaving the profession within five years of qualifying).

The other is that the government deliberately excluded all staff over the age of 64, which meant they excluded half of all deaths among school staff, but compared the rate to the population as a whole.

Which is extraordinary. Not only is that blatantly criminal - even by the dreadful standards set by Williamson and Gibb - but were they really so dumb as to think nobody would notice?

I can only hope that the judge gives them all life sentences.

https://www.tes.com/news/covid-teacher-deaths-double-when-over-64s-are-added

That TES piece is based on an Eoin Clarke special (renamed himself to 'Toryfibs' after the Eoin Clarke 'Blizzard of apologies to people he lied about' incident. I'm still blocked 9 years later.). Handle with extreme care.

The stats are also not DES stats, they are ONS stats. Govt did not exclude older (how many active teachers are there over 64 currently working in schools?) to manipulate figures, ONS did because reliable stats do not exist, and explicitly warn that the over-65 stats are provisional.

And the TES have not claimed a deliberate Govt intention to deceive. Nor has Eoin (used to call himself Dr Eoin when he was publishing 'health stats'; Phd is in Feminist History); he knows he'd be skewered if he did.

ONS compared 20-64 age group secondary school teachers to other professionals in the same age group, because they are the only ones for whom comparable statistics are available. They found teachers to be at a *lower* risk of death from COVID (at a 5% significance) level. Significance vanishes when extended to all education related staff.

ONS keep the over 65s provisional figures separate as it is not clear who they represent - are many retired etc?

Eoin just conflates the whole lot, with no commentary, to excite his followers. IMO TES have been suckered.

ONS commentary:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19relateddeathsbyoccupationenglandandwales/deathsregisteredbetween9marchand28december2020#deaths-involving-covid-19-in-teaching-and-educational-professionals

If there is one conclusion I'd hazard it is that teachers of working age are safer because vulnerables are shielding, and perhaps can afford to as still paid (?).

Vulnerable teachers are not shielding routinely, and they are not safer. Infection rates are three times the general population.

So the most plausible response to the fact that there are more infections but comparable deaths is that they are (a) younger and (b) figures are being fiddled. Which they clearly are. I would point out that the TES has filtered his data because it included lecturers, and they were interested in teachers.

This is all of piece with the DfE’s attempts through a number of irresponsible sources to claim schools are safe, when they are clearly not. And I might add, having repeatedly lied about the figures in the past (claiming the infection rate was 0.2% when it was 4.2% and the number isolating was up to 23%) they have in any case a massive credibility problem.

And whatever subject Clarke’s PhD was in, he’s still a doctor (unlike almost all GPs) and perfectly entitled to call himself one.

CarlottaVance

https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1354004937731166209?s=20
https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1354005525470605312?s=20

Morris_Dancer

Mr. L, worth remembering a small number of leftwing voters supported leaving the EU to 'get' Cameron.

I want the union to win, and that means the incumbent being far away from the heart of the debate.

MattW

Sandpit said:

BluestBlue said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

That German newspaper needs to quickly replace the online copy of its article with a retraction of the story, before AZ’s lawyers wake up.

Still up: https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/pandemie-bekaempfung-rueckschlag-bei-corona-impfstoff-astra-zeneca-vakzin-wirkt-bei-senioren-offenbar-kaum/26849788.html

If I were the publisher of such a respected organ, I think I’d be wanting the editor’s head on a plate this morning. Not necessarily in a metaphorical sense, either!

The sacking of their new data analysis intern Diana Abbotz certainly wouldn't go amiss...

It’s actually quite surprising it’s taken this long for a newspaper to make such a monumental screw-up over the pandemic. I was pretty sure one of the UK papers would have done it by now, but they seem to have mostly swerved it by leading with crappy opinion pieces rather than crappy fact pieces.

Have any politicians been pushing the Handelsblatt narrative?

Nigel_Foremain

Sandpit said:

BluestBlue said:

Sandpit said:

CarlottaVance said:

Sandpit said:

That German newspaper needs to quickly replace the online copy of its article with a retraction of the story, before AZ’s lawyers wake up.

Still up: https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/pandemie-bekaempfung-rueckschlag-bei-corona-impfstoff-astra-zeneca-vakzin-wirkt-bei-senioren-offenbar-kaum/26849788.html

If I were the publisher of such a respected organ, I think I’d be wanting the editor’s head on a plate this morning. Not necessarily in a metaphorical sense, either!

The sacking of their new data analysis intern Diana Abbotz certainly wouldn't go amiss...

It’s actually quite surprising it’s taken this long for a newspaper to make such a monumental screw-up over the pandemic. I was pretty sure one of the UK papers would have done it by now, but they seem to have mostly swerved it by leading with crappy opinion pieces rather than crappy fact pieces.

AZ's lawyers will be on it. The big corp lawyers in healthcare tend to move slowly, but when they eventually go into bat it can be devastating. I would expect a grovelling retraction in the coming days...

Big_G_NorthWales

williamglenn said:

Handelsblatt still hasn’t stopped digging. They’re now reporting the AZ denial as if it’s an “on the one hand, on the other hand” story.
https://twitter.com/handelsblatt/status/1353992634570854402?s=21

I know it is Guido but looks as if they may have legal action coming their way

https://order-order.com/2021/01/26/german-health-ministry-denies-astrazeneca-lower-efficacy-report/

MaxPB

williamglenn said:

Handelsblatt still hasn’t stopped digging. They’re now reporting the AZ denial as if it’s an “on the one hand, on the other hand” story.
https://twitter.com/handelsblatt/status/1353992634570854402?s=21

It's weird that this isn't the Sun or Mirror making these baseless accusations.

ydoethur

david_herdson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

david_herdson said:

Mike is right. But Sturgeon is more vulnerable than those figures make her look. Her public performance on Covid has been assured but the outcomes have been almost as bad as those in England (and worse than NI). She is vulnerable to attack there, especially from Scottish Lab and LD, who don't have the problem of whataboutery that the Scottish Cons would.

And then there's the Salmond issue, dividing the SNP and which is a messy and tawdry story which in normal times would certainly have had the potential to bring her down (and still may).

There is a positive case to be made for the Union - and the Covid vaccine rollout is doing it well - but there's also a strong argument to hit Sturgeon hard wherever possible too.

You expect the Labour and Liberal Democrat parties to be able to successfully throw stones over devolved healthcare outcomes?

Considering those parties are in charge of Wales has Wales been a stunning success compared to Scotland? 🤔

If they can drag Sturgeon down to their level, yes. I don't honestly think that level of whataboutery will fly. Tying the SCons to Boris will have some effect but the Welsh parties are too obscure.

The point is that it's the SNP in charge. I don't think they can dodge that by going "look - Aberystwyth"

Why Aberystwyth? There are no Labour politicians there and hardly any LibDems now.

‘Look - Merthyr’ has a nice ring to it though.

tlg86

CarlottaVance said:

https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1354004937731166209?s=20
https://twitter.com/Birdyword/status/1354005525470605312?s=20

Yes, the critical thing is that they didn't name a source. By not naming a source, they are the ones making the claim about the vaccine.

JohnLilburne

williamglenn said:

Handelsblatt still hasn’t stopped digging. They’re now reporting the AZ denial as if it’s an “on the one hand, on the other hand” story.
https://twitter.com/handelsblatt/status/1353992634570854402?s=21

"Impfstoff" is a great word though (and cognate with English "imp" through particularly convoluted changes in meaning https://en.m.wiktionary.org/wiki/impfen )

MaxPB

Nigel_Foremain said:

Mexicanpete said:

geoffw said:

On Sunday I knew only one couple who had had the inoculation here in Edinburgh. Today I know of half a dozen who have had it or have appointments for it. All in the over 80s bracket. The roll-out is proceeding apace and everyone knows who secured the vaccines which don't have a tartan label.

The NHS?

I don't give much credit to the government or the NHS for us being ahead of the curve when it comes to vaccination. I think if anyone is to take credit for our good fortune it is the folk at the outstandingly good MHRA and the scientists in Oxford and Astra Zeneca.

I think the NHS deserves a lot of credit for the rollout, it's been very well done and the government definitely deserves credit for being a fast mover on purchasing rather than haggling ovr price.

Richard_Nabavi

You always wanted to know this, didn't you?

https://twitter.com/MattSingh_/status/1354009743925387264

Theuniondivvie

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

Mike is right. But Sturgeon is more vulnerable than those figures make her look. Her public performance on Covid has been assured but the outcomes have been almost as bad as those in England (and worse than NI). She is vulnerable to attack there, especially from Scottish Lab and LD, who don't have the problem of whataboutery that the Scottish Cons would.

And then there's the Salmond issue, dividing the SNP and which is a messy and tawdry story which in normal times would certainly have had the potential to bring her down (and still may).

There is a positive case to be made for the Union - and the Covid vaccine rollout is doing it well - but there's also a strong argument to hit Sturgeon hard wherever possible too.

Personally I think that the SNP pulling Sturgeon down could well be dragging defeat from the jaws of victory. They should definitely go for it is my impartial advice 😉 Replacing her with some raving nutter would make the administration of Scotland even poorer than it is already but it would be a price worth paying.

We’ve had lots of opinions from voteless Scotch experts in far away lands about Unionist boycotts, ‘illegal’ referendums and the like. Aiui you’ve said that if there’s a majority for another ref in May, Indy ref there should be despite your reservations, democracy should prevail. If BJ continues to block and an advisory but non S30 sanctioned referendum takes place, what would be your position?

Slackbladder

DavidL said:

FeersumEnjineeya said:

The EU is clearly deeply pissed off with AstraZeneca. They want to know why EU orders are not being fulfilled when others, to the UK, for example, are, especially in view of the fact that the EU helped to finance the development and production of the vaccine.

https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/astrazeneca-impfstoff-probleme-101.html

I am just having a wild stab here, but maybe because we paid them a premium to be first when the EU was still dicking about saying that they couldn't enter contracts until the vaccine had been improved by their oh so slow regulator?

Remember when people were attacking BJ for paying more for vaccines than the EU supposedly were? I wouldn't be at all surprised if we paid a premium for guaranteed priority supply, especially from the UK manufacturing plants. In which case, we should well get ours first. (subject to what the EU were promised and the details of their contracts).

ydoethur

FeersumEnjineeya said:

The EU is clearly deeply pissed off with AstraZeneca. They want to know why EU orders are not being fulfilled when others, to the UK, for example, are, especially in view of the fact that the EU helped to finance the development and production of the vaccine.

https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/astrazeneca-impfstoff-probleme-101.html

But why are they so exercised about their orders not being fulfilled when they haven’t approved the vaccine?

I’m not bothering about a heat pump for the swimming pool until I can afford one.

And if they are in any way involved in this fake news story at Handelsblatt - even indirectly - it would be immensely damaging to them.

Anyone would think they were being advised by the Department of Education.

HYUFD

This polling is also exactly the reason Boris will never allow a legal indyref2 while he is PM as he knows there is a strong chance Scots would vote Yes and he would be forced to resign as PM having broken up the Union.

Starmer however is much more likely to offer Sturgeon a legal indyref2, firstly he may need SNP confidence and supply to become PM after the 2024 general election while Boris has a Tory majority of 80 and can ignore the SNP. Secondly, he is much more likely to win any indyref2 than Boris given Starmer has a very good +16% rating in Scotland compared to Boris' poor -58% rating with Scots.

Theuniondivvie

Slackbladder said:

If They have to give a referendum, they should do what frankly should have been done with Brexit, have a pre- referendum agreement on the nature of the deal. What currency is used, what the settlement of finances are, what the border agreement would be etc etc.

Should take about 4 years to sit down and agree, and then we can have the referendum on it.

‘We’ can have the referendum?

Sandpit

FeersumEnjineeya said:

The EU is clearly deeply pissed off with AstraZeneca. They want to know why EU orders are not being fulfilled when others, to the UK, for example, are, especially in view of the fact that the EU helped to finance the development and production of the vaccine.

https://www.tagesschau.de/ausland/europa/astrazeneca-impfstoff-probleme-101.html

The EU haven’t even approved the AZ vaccine yet.

Why would AZ be shipping product to places yet to approve use, when they have customers who can put hundreds of thousands of doses in arms today and tomorrow?

YBarddCwsc

david_herdson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

david_herdson said:

Mike is right. But Sturgeon is more vulnerable than those figures make her look. Her public performance on Covid has been assured but the outcomes have been almost as bad as those in England (and worse than NI). She is vulnerable to attack there, especially from Scottish Lab and LD, who don't have the problem of whataboutery that the Scottish Cons would.

And then there's the Salmond issue, dividing the SNP and which is a messy and tawdry story which in normal times would certainly have had the potential to bring her down (and still may).

There is a positive case to be made for the Union - and the Covid vaccine rollout is doing it well - but there's also a strong argument to hit Sturgeon hard wherever possible too.

You expect the Labour and Liberal Democrat parties to be able to successfully throw stones over devolved healthcare outcomes?

Considering those parties are in charge of Wales has Wales been a stunning success compared to Scotland? 🤔

If they can drag Sturgeon down to their level, yes. I don't honestly think that level of whataboutery will fly. Tying the SCons to Boris will have some effect but the Welsh parties are too obscure.

The point is that it's the SNP in charge. I don't think they can dodge that by going "look - Aberystwyth"

It is not very clear that there are any statistically significant differences between performance in E, W, S & NI.

Atm, I think formally Wales is top of the Death Table (normalized to population), and Scotland is bottom of the Vaccine Rollout Table. But, the positions have changed with time.

I would not think it advisable for any UK politician to be bragging about our performance. There have been way too many deaths.

This is an area where it is better to let your political opponent be the first to step into the quagmire with false claims.

Nigelb

https://twitter.com/_b_meyer/status/1354008876144877573

Nigelb

https://twitter.com/natashaloder/status/1353813117445222400

Nigelb

(edit for added German snark.)
https://twitter.com/_b_meyer/status/1354003566697058304

Burgessian

DavidL said:

swing_voter said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

Mike is right. But Sturgeon is more vulnerable than those figures make her look. Her public performance on Covid has been assured but the outcomes have been almost as bad as those in England (and worse than NI). She is vulnerable to attack there, especially from Scottish Lab and LD, who don't have the problem of whataboutery that the Scottish Cons would.

And then there's the Salmond issue, dividing the SNP and which is a messy and tawdry story which in normal times would certainly have had the potential to bring her down (and still may).

There is a positive case to be made for the Union - and the Covid vaccine rollout is doing it well - but there's also a strong argument to hit Sturgeon hard wherever possible too.

Personally I think that the SNP pulling Sturgeon down could well be dragging defeat from the jaws of victory. They should definitely go for it is my impartial advice 😉 Replacing her with some raving nutter would make the administration of Scotland even poorer than it is already but it would be a price worth paying.

the SNP really need to go for it while BJ is Prime Minister - they sense perhaps that he is no around for the next GE (there's plenty who'd agree) so this could be their best chance - early Brexit turbulence and a deeply unpopular English PM.....

People were convinced that Cameron was deeply unpopular up here too and that the austerity policies of Osborne were going to prove fatal. They were wrong.

I am not saying that people don't vote for stupid and sentimental reasons but the Union is about a lot more than the identity of the PM of the day at any particular point.

The leaders matter. People look at Boris and then they look at Nicola, and ask themselves, "Who do I want in charge?" Makes a huge difference.

That's why UK Govt has to play it long. Constitutional convention does that.

Things may look different when Brexit is bedded down and Boris and Nicola have departed.

HYUFD

Philip_Thompson said:

Off topic is the Deadpool still going? Did anyone have Larry King?

HYUFD said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Burgessian said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Allegedly Shagger will announce some kind of constitutional commission. If I thought this (a) would be a genuine attempt at reform and (b) it would actually recommend the remaking of this country to be at least fit for the 21st century and (c) that such recommendations would be implemented, I would back it.

In reality, its *this* government proposing it. A government who tried to go back on its own key manifesto pledge. With a PM and cabinet comprised of sacked liars, demonstrable fools and Theresa "I didn't say that" Coffey. Someone of the stature of Blair or Thatcher proposing it? Perhaps, but neither did.

So its going to come down a battle of wills. If the electorate return an SNP government on a manifesto of holding an independence referendum, then either Westminster says "we don't care what you think" and thus guarantees independence the minute they are removed from power, or as @Philip_Thompson rightly suggests, tackles it head on.

Ironically many of the factual reasons why Sindy is a bad idea can be demonstrated by the real world impacts of Brexit. As we know, real world practicalities aren't why people vote, and the "that could be Bad" arguments can be batted aside as the people saying that were saying the opposite with regards to Brexit.

Philip Thompson is wrong.

In 2017 the Spanish conservative government denied the Catalan nationalist majority government even one independence referendum, 4 years later Catalonia is still part of Spain and support for independence there is falling

Is your ambition to get Scotland to vote to stay in the UK because they want to stay - or to beat them into submission with violence?

The UK is not Spain or China.

The point Philip, is that support for Indy has fallen in Catalonia once the Spanish made it clear it was off the table. People have moved on. It's not inconceivable that the same could happen in Scotland, though it will be handled very differently, of course.

It's pretty obvious that there are talks behind the scene with the likes of Gordon Brown, so it will be a No, plus a constitutional commission to report some years in the future when Boris and Nicola have left the scene. Will it provoke a Caledonian insurgency and riots in Inverness? Don't think so.

This scenario is why the SNP is seething internally and Nicola has had to go along with this scheme which is immensely risky (as she knows only too well).

No the point is that Spain turned violent to suppress the Catalans. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-41463955

Is the UK going to do that? Should the UK do that?

Is it worth keeping Scotland in the UK if the only way to do so is to sell your soul and turn violent against your fellow Brits?

In 2017 92% of Catalans voted for independence on a 43% turnout, the Spanish government correctly refused to recognise the result of that unconstitutional referendum, Catalonia is still part of Spain and support for independence there is now falling

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_Catalan_independence_referendum

How do you define support for independence falling?

February 2020: Yes 44%, No 49%, no lead by 5%
March 2020: Yes 44.9%, No 47.1%, no lead by 2.2%
Sept 2020: Yes 45.2%, No 46.7%, same pollster as February, no lead reduced to 1.5%
Oct 2020: Yes 45.5%, No 46.3%, same pollster as March, no lead reduced to 0.8%

Support for independence has gone up not down over the past 12 months and almost eliminated the No lead.

In 2017 the polling showed most Catalans wanted independence

JohnLilburne

ydoethur said:

And my response, also from previous thread:

MattW said:

ydoethur said:

You may remember that yesterday I expressed surprise at the death rate among teaching staff being similar to the community outside, despite the infection rate being triple.

Turns out there are two reasons for this figure.

One is that on the whole teachers are younger than the population at large (something to do with 40% of staff leaving the profession within five years of qualifying).

The other is that the government deliberately excluded all staff over the age of 64, which meant they excluded half of all deaths among school staff, but compared the rate to the population as a whole.

Which is extraordinary. Not only is that blatantly criminal - even by the dreadful standards set by Williamson and Gibb - but were they really so dumb as to think nobody would notice?

I can only hope that the judge gives them all life sentences.

https://www.tes.com/news/covid-teacher-deaths-double-when-over-64s-are-added

That TES piece is based on an Eoin Clarke special (renamed himself to 'Toryfibs' after the Eoin Clarke 'Blizzard of apologies to people he lied about' incident. I'm still blocked 9 years later.). Handle with extreme care.

The stats are also not DES stats, they are ONS stats. Govt did not exclude older (how many active teachers are there over 64 currently working in schools?) to manipulate figures, ONS did because reliable stats do not exist, and explicitly warn that the over-65 stats are provisional.

And the TES have not claimed a deliberate Govt intention to deceive. Nor has Eoin (used to call himself Dr Eoin when he was publishing 'health stats'; Phd is in Feminist History); he knows he'd be skewered if he did.

ONS compared 20-64 age group secondary school teachers to other professionals in the same age group, because they are the only ones for whom comparable statistics are available. They found teachers to be at a *lower* risk of death from COVID (at a 5% significance) level. Significance vanishes when extended to all education related staff.

ONS keep the over 65s provisional figures separate as it is not clear who they represent - are many retired etc?

Eoin just conflates the whole lot, with no commentary, to excite his followers. IMO TES have been suckered.

ONS commentary:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/causesofdeath/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19relateddeathsbyoccupationenglandandwales/deathsregisteredbetween9marchand28december2020#deaths-involving-covid-19-in-teaching-and-educational-professionals

If there is one conclusion I'd hazard it is that teachers of working age are safer because vulnerables are shielding, and perhaps can afford to as still paid (?).

Vulnerable teachers are not shielding routinely, and they are not safer. Infection rates are three times the general population.

So the most plausible response to the fact that there are more infections but comparable deaths is that they are (a) younger and (b) figures are being fiddled. Which they clearly are. I would point out that the TES has filtered his data because it included lecturers, and they were interested in teachers.

This is all of piece with the DfE’s attempts through a number of irresponsible sources to claim schools are safe, when they are clearly not. And I might add, having repeatedly lied about the figures in the past (claiming the infection rate was 0.2% when it was 4.2% and the number isolating was up to 23%) they have in any case a massive credibility problem.

And whatever subject Clarke’s PhD was in, he’s still a doctor (unlike almost all GPs) and perfectly entitled to call himself one.

Do teachers have three times the infection rate? Or are they just being tested more? A teacher friend had it, he only got a headache so only knew about it because of a routine test.

Flatlander

FF43 said:

david_herdson said:

Mike is right. But Sturgeon is more vulnerable than those figures make her look. Her public performance on Covid has been assured but the outcomes have been almost as bad as those in England (and worse than NI). She is vulnerable to attack there, especially from Scottish Lab and LD, who don't have the problem of whataboutery that the Scottish Cons would.

And then there's the Salmond issue, dividing the SNP and which is a messy and tawdry story which in normal times would certainly have had the potential to bring her down (and still may).

There is a positive case to be made for the Union - and the Covid vaccine rollout is doing it well - but there's also a strong argument to hit Sturgeon hard wherever possible too.

Case, death and hospitalisation rates in Scotland have been running at half the English levels for some time now. That's a big difference in outcomes. Sturgeon has made some bad mistakes on Covid, as has Johnson, Sturgeon seems capable of learning from her mistakes, while Johnson keeps making the same mistakes again and again, with the result that tens of thousands of people will die, who would otherwise live.

The SNP are perfectly capable of mucking up, but almost no-one so far has made money betting on them doing so.

Excess deaths and death certificate numbers in Scotland appear to be very similar to the English ones though. It is only the 'within 28 days of a test' figure that is lower.

Perhaps the lack of testing skewed the numbers?

Nigel_Foremain

MaxPB said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Mexicanpete said:

geoffw said:

On Sunday I knew only one couple who had had the inoculation here in Edinburgh. Today I know of half a dozen who have had it or have appointments for it. All in the over 80s bracket. The roll-out is proceeding apace and everyone knows who secured the vaccines which don't have a tartan label.

The NHS?

I don't give much credit to the government or the NHS for us being ahead of the curve when it comes to vaccination. I think if anyone is to take credit for our good fortune it is the folk at the outstandingly good MHRA and the scientists in Oxford and Astra Zeneca.

I think the NHS deserves a lot of credit for the rollout, it's been very well done and the government definitely deserves credit for being a fast mover on purchasing rather than haggling ovr price.

Possibly, and though I see few redeeming features in Boris Johnson, there is a reasonable chance he will get the odd gamble right. I would give credit to Nadhim Zahawi (spelling?) who seems unusually efficient for a current government minister. There is, of course, a long way to go, and I pray it will continue as well as it seems to be going so far.

Nigelb

https://twitter.com/DrDenaGrayson/status/1353900423539789825

ydoethur

Theuniondivvie said:

DavidL said:

david_herdson said:

Mike is right. But Sturgeon is more vulnerable than those figures make her look. Her public performance on Covid has been assured but the outcomes have been almost as bad as those in England (and worse than NI). She is vulnerable to attack there, especially from Scottish Lab and LD, who don't have the problem of whataboutery that the Scottish Cons would.

And then there's the Salmond issue, dividing the SNP and which is a messy and tawdry story which in normal times would certainly have had the potential to bring her down (and still may).

There is a positive case to be made for the Union - and the Covid vaccine rollout is doing it well - but there's also a strong argument to hit Sturgeon hard wherever possible too.

Personally I think that the SNP pulling Sturgeon down could well be dragging defeat from the jaws of victory. They should definitely go for it is my impartial advice 😉 Replacing her with some raving nutter would make the administration of Scotland even poorer than it is already but it would be a price worth paying.

We’ve had lots of opinions from voteless Scotch experts in far away lands about Unionist boycotts, ‘illegal’ referendums and the like. Aiui you’ve said that if there’s a majority for another ref in May, Indy ref there should be despite your reservations, democracy should prevail. If BJ continues to block and an advisory but non S30 sanctioned referendum takes place, what would be your position?

Scotch doesn’t have a vote. Liquids are not considered to have the necessary mental acuity.

OldKingCole

Good morning. Late to the party today. I strongly suspect that very few people are going to be greatly bothered about politics for now, and, an October poll figure is likely to be still about right. The time will come though when things are either back to something like normal or we've accepted what normal is likely to be for a bit and then the fur will fly.

I've never liked Boris, or seriously considered voting Conservative, and my view is unlikely to change, but I am coming to the view that some of Ms Sturgeons so-far-hidden chickens are coming home to roost and that while Independence will continue to be popular in Scotland her personal ratings are going to take a tumble. That might affect pro-Indy intentions.

Trouble is that there doesn't seem to be anyone about in Scottish politics who can take her place.

Malmesbury

MaxPB said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

Mexicanpete said:

geoffw said:

On Sunday I knew only one couple who had had the inoculation here in Edinburgh. Today I know of half a dozen who have had it or have appointments for it. All in the over 80s bracket. The roll-out is proceeding apace and everyone knows who secured the vaccines which don't have a tartan label.

The NHS?

I don't give much credit to the government or the NHS for us being ahead of the curve when it comes to vaccination. I think if anyone is to take credit for our good fortune it is the folk at the outstandingly good MHRA and the scientists in Oxford and Astra Zeneca.

I think the NHS deserves a lot of credit for the rollout, it's been very well done and the government definitely deserves credit for being a fast mover on purchasing rather than haggling ovr price.

The government deserves credit for

- Pre buying vaccines (before approval)
- Buying a range of vaccines.
- Going for early delivery, rather than lowest price
- Going for the approval-in-parallel model of vaccine approval
- Investing a lot of money in production in the UK
- Investing in a large supply chain effort
- Investing in a varied range of delivery systems. Both large, centralised setups as well as GPs surgeries etc etc

The deserve credit in the sense that there was the option of not doing the above. And a number of countries did not do this.