I think in Scotland now we have a trade deal with the EU the chances of an SNP majority at Holyrood next year are much less than if there had been No Deal. The SNP vote should fall to their 45% hardcore and given the SNP got 46.5% in 2016 they could even lose seats.
In the local elections given the Tories were 11% ahead of Labour in the 2017 county council elections the Tories will likely lose some county councillors to Labour even if they stay ahead and Labour should hold the London Mayoralty and Assembly comfortably.
The District elections are likely to be relatively better for the Tories as Labour were 1% ahead already when they were last up in 2016. In Wales the Tories may also gain seats from Labour and Abolish the Assembly will likely enter the Senedd for the first time
What passes for a trade deal. Everone from the bankers to the farmers to the fisherpersons is unhappy. Three crucial Unionist vote categories in Scotland.
There are far fewer bankers in Scotland than in London and they are mainly concentrated in Edinburgh where the LDs and Labour are the main challengers to the SNP in more seats than the Tories anyway.
Farmers and fishermen combined make up less than 1% of Scottish voters, the latter are concentrated in Banff and Buchan which is already SNP at Holyrood and not even in the top 10 Conservative target seats. If they want a harder deal they will vote for Farage and UKIP anyway not SNP.
The vast majority of Scots especially the 55% Unionist majority will be pleased No Deal has been avoided and will not take kindly to Sturgeon both voting against the Deal and continuing to push for indyref2 rather than focusing on domestic politics and the pandemic. She is setting herself up for a May 2017 style fall, if Sturgeon fails to get a thumping SNP majority next May she faces humiliation and SNP civil war
You spent months assuring us all that Tory vistories were nailed on along the coastal strip because of the hordes of fisherpersons, including trying to make out that a self-selected survey of the skippers of larger fishing boats was a reliable survey of the entire workforce of tdhe fishing industry.
Now you say the fishermen hardly matter?!
Outside of Banffshire and Buchan coast containing Peterhead largely no, that has an SNP majority of 23% and is not even in the top 10 Tory Holyrood constituency target seats, if the Tories won there the SNP would not only have failed to win a majority but would even be at risk of not even being largest party
Time to bring the drawbridge up on the M1 and the A1.
Would it make more sense to move patients to the Nightingale and borrow staff from other areas if possible rather than taking the London variant northwards?
Tier 5 soon...
The government did promise to "level up" once a Trade Deal was signed.
Jesus. We could actually break the world record, next week?
Your burst of optimism didn't last long.
Yes, my bipolarity just peaked, methinks
Common complaint in these parts,
I'd fear that being bipolar is one of those things that many people on the internet are inclined to self diagnose as (not suggesting that is the case with Leon), like Asperger's Syndrome or OCD.
True OCD is a disabling condition. You can start by developing an intense fear of something - say a heart attack - and irrationally even though you are an extremely rational person you decide that stamping your foot 3 times before you leave the house will ward it off. You do the stamp, go out, return safely, and conclude that it worked. You're now on the hook. Every time you go out you have to do it. Then you start adding things. Stop walking every 100 paces and surreptitiously stamp 3 times. Every 50 paces. Every 25. Progress becomes painfully slow. And then it occurs to you that you need routines for the home. Ever more elaborate physical performances, perhaps involving objects, and mental mantras, spoken or unspoken, become compulsory because in your mind you believe, you know, that if you don't do them, and do them exactly right, the Thing you dread will happen. It's absolutely no joke.
The root of OCD is surprisingly positive. The rituals and tics spring from an idea that these will prevent something bad happening, generally to loved ones.
Cognitive Behavioral Therapy is very good for this condition, and helping channel that concern for others into less disruptive and more constructive directions.
Gavin Williamson is so incompetent I bet that he pays full price for a sofa at DFS.
David Herdson's reply
'Chris Grayling pays five years in advance.'
And then moves house and forgets he ordered the furniture.
And cannot find where he has moved to
Now Brexit Is Done, can we get rid of the Get Brexit Done cabinet?
(Subsidiary questions- 1 Who needs to go? 2 Can they be dumped without causing Backbench Unhappiness? 3 Who is available on the subs bench? I don't know any more, but I'm not optimistic of there being a Pile Of Talent, just waiting their moment.)
1. It would be quicker to list who stays. 2. Yes I think so. At least there will not be enough unhappiness to cause Johnson any lost sleep 3. Who knows. I am not inspired by many of the MPs on any of the benches at the moment. We are poorly served by most our elected representatives.
Jesus. We could actually break the world record, next week?
Your burst of optimism didn't last long.
Yes, my bipolarity just peaked, methinks
Common complaint in these parts,
I've always been bipolar, but I have noticed that many of my friends and relatives are now exhibiting the same symptoms, when they were paragons of equanimity before.
They swing wildly from optimism to despair and back again
Have they turned to drugs and teenage flesh during the periods of optimism?
I think in Scotland now we have a trade deal with the EU the chances of an SNP majority at Holyrood next year are much less than if there had been No Deal. The SNP vote should fall to their 45% hardcore and given the SNP got 46.5% in 2016 they could even lose seats.
In the local elections given the Tories were 11% ahead of Labour in the 2017 county council elections the Tories will likely lose some county councillors to Labour even if they stay ahead and Labour should hold the London Mayoralty and Assembly comfortably.
The District elections are likely to be relatively better for the Tories as Labour were 1% ahead already when they were last up in 2016. In Wales the Tories may also gain seats from Labour and Abolish the Assembly will likely enter the Senedd for the first time
What passes for a trade deal. Everone from the bankers to the farmers to the fisherpersons is unhappy. Three crucial Unionist vote categories in Scotland.
There are far fewer bankers in Scotland than in London and they are mainly concentrated in Edinburgh where the LDs and Labour are the main challengers to the SNP in more seats than the Tories anyway.
Farmers and fishermen combined make up less than 1% of Scottish voters, the latter are concentrated in Banff and Buchan which is already SNP at Holyrood and not even in the top 10 Conservative target seats. If they want a harder deal they will vote for Farage and UKIP anyway not SNP.
The vast majority of Scots especially the 55% Unionist majority will be pleased No Deal has been avoided and will not take kindly to Sturgeon both voting against the Deal and continuing to push for indyref2 rather than focusing on domestic politics and the pandemic. She is setting herself up for a May 2017 style fall, if Sturgeon fails to get a thumping SNP majority next May she faces humiliation and SNP civil war
You spent months assuring us all that Tory vistories were nailed on along the coastal strip because of the hordes of fisherpersons, including trying to make out that a self-selected survey of the skippers of larger fishing boats was a reliable survey of the entire workforce of tdhe fishing industry.
Now you say the fishermen hardly matter?!
Outside of Banffshire and Buchan coast containing Peterhead largely no, that has an SNP majority of 23% and is not even in the top 10 Tory Holyrood constituency target seats, if the Tories won there the SNP would not only have failed to win a majority but would even be at risk of not even being largest party
Just read what you have read in that thread. It is contradictory between this and the last thread. One moment you say the fishermen matter and the next they don't. r
Gavin Williamson is so incompetent I bet that he pays full price for a sofa at DFS.
David Herdson's reply
'Chris Grayling pays five years in advance.'
And then moves house and forgets he ordered the furniture.
And cannot find where he has moved to
Now Brexit Is Done, can we get rid of the Get Brexit Done cabinet?
(Subsidiary questions- 1 Who needs to go? 2 Can they be dumped without causing Backbench Unhappiness? 3 Who is available on the subs bench? I don't know any more, but I'm not optimistic of there being a Pile Of Talent, just waiting their moment.)
There are quite a few conservatives who would like to see several leave the stage including Williamson and Jenrick
I hope that Penny Mordaunt will be brought back into cabinet with other female candidates
Gavin Williamson is so incompetent I bet that he pays full price for a sofa at DFS.
David Herdson's reply
'Chris Grayling pays five years in advance.'
And then moves house and forgets he ordered the furniture.
And cannot find where he has moved to
Now Brexit Is Done, can we get rid of the Get Brexit Done cabinet?
(Subsidiary questions- 1 Who needs to go? 2 Can they be dumped without causing Backbench Unhappiness? 3 Who is available on the subs bench? I don't know any more, but I'm not optimistic of there being a Pile Of Talent, just waiting their moment.)
1. It would be quicker to list who stays. 2. Yes I think so. At least there will not be enough unhappiness to cause Johnson any lost sleep 3. Who knows. I am not inspired by many of the MPs on any of the benches at the moment. We are poorly served by most our elected representatives.
Edit. Of course the biggest problem for me is that Johnson should not be on the list I mentioned in 1. But I can't see a way to getting rid of him this side of a GE and even then the alternative doesn't inspire.
This is broadly in line with what I'd predict. I do think we may well see a hicup in the vaccine rollout - at every stage so far, whether through incompetence or it being an impossible job from the standing start they were given by the previous three Tory administrations, something has gone wrong - but it won't be too major and while it may mean we miss Boris' back to normal by Easter deadline, take up and the virus seemingly dying down a bit in summer will mean we're back to more or less normal.
As for a boom, I think we may well have a summer a bit like 2012 - with the Euro finals taking place here, an Olympics, and India here in the cricket, as well as festivals etc returning. Those who were able to save during the pandemic and still have jobs will be keen to make up for lost time and we'll have a boom that briefly feels like it. However, it may come with a nasty sting in the autumn as we realise it's unevenly spread, with many businesses and those they serve not coming back, doesn't catch up to where we were, and Sunak begins to lean towards clawing back the Covid cash. Not least because, as others have said, Brexit adds a slow puncture that stops us getting up to maximum speed - and the promised benefits of divergence won't exist yet, if we diverge much at all pre-2024 when things come up for review, as to not play chicken with tariffs and potential retaliation on services.
Brexit. The debate will change but won't go away. Because there'll be plenty for special interest groups to complain about the detail, and the scrutiny hasn't happened ahead of time. Lots of things will fizzle out as issues, but the odd one will catch fire - and journalists will not want for businesses who've gone under/laid off people due to new bureaucratic restrictions.
It also won't disappear because with the exception of the Labour leadership, no one has an interest in it doing so. Boris and Brexiteers have an interest in championing the deal as brilliant in a way that antagonises those (mainly remainers) who believe he's one of the most despicable, fraudulent politicians post-war Britain has produced. Sturgeon will use every thing that might not be great, as well as Brexiteers own rhetoric about sovereignty being vital, to justify Scottish independence. The Lib Dems will use opposition to carve out a distinctive position and get a megaphone, and the Labour left will use it to bash Starmer.
In the longer term, the dog that will bark, but won't bite in 2021 is younger generations (If you're under 50 you most likely voted remain, if under 30 more likely to have lost income due to Covid) feeling their elders don't just fail to listen to them, but are actively hostile and selfishly malevolent towards them - cutting off opportunities, pricing them out of housing, and then continually whining about them in waging a culture war. The young's revenge on the older Brexiteers won't happen in 2021, but we may start to see the arguments that eventually lead to it.
I think that last prediction (though sufficiently far off that you’ll never get judged on it) is I think a very good one. The HYUFD style triumphalism is just more salt on those wounds.
There’s perhaps a tenuous parallel with the Thatcher years. The resentment had no real political effect for a decade, but proved persistent enough that the Tories had to distance themselves from that period in order to get back into power, after being in opposition for over a decade.
The Tories were in power for 18 years after Thatcher took office, their longest period in power for over 150 years.
As of now the Tories have been in power for almost 10 years, their third longest period in power after WW2, the fact the pendulum normally swings eventually does not change the fact that if there is no election until 2024 whatever happens the Tories will overtake the 13 years they were in power from 1951 to 1964 too
I think in Scotland now we have a trade deal with the EU the chances of an SNP majority at Holyrood next year are much less than if there had been No Deal. The SNP vote should fall to their 45% hardcore and given the SNP got 46.5% in 2016 they could even lose seats.
In the local elections given the Tories were 11% ahead of Labour in the 2017 county council elections the Tories will likely lose some county councillors to Labour even if they stay ahead and Labour should hold the London Mayoralty and Assembly comfortably.
The District elections are likely to be relatively better for the Tories as Labour were 1% ahead already when they were last up in 2016. In Wales the Tories may also gain seats from Labour and Abolish the Assembly will likely enter the Senedd for the first time
What passes for a trade deal. Everone from the bankers to the farmers to the fisherpersons is unhappy. Three crucial Unionist vote categories in Scotland.
There are far fewer bankers in Scotland than in London and they are mainly concentrated in Edinburgh where the LDs and Labour are the main challengers to the SNP in more seats than the Tories anyway.
Farmers and fishermen combined make up less than 1% of Scottish voters, the latter are concentrated in Banff and Buchan which is already SNP at Holyrood and not even in the top 10 Conservative target seats. If they want a harder deal they will vote for Farage and UKIP anyway not SNP.
The vast majority of Scots especially the 55% Unionist majority will be pleased No Deal has been avoided and will not take kindly to Sturgeon both voting against the Deal and continuing to push for indyref2 rather than focusing on domestic politics and the pandemic. She is setting herself up for a May 2017 style fall, if Sturgeon fails to get a thumping SNP majority next May she faces humiliation and SNP civil war
You spent months assuring us all that Tory vistories were nailed on along the coastal strip because of the hordes of fisherpersons, including trying to make out that a self-selected survey of the skippers of larger fishing boats was a reliable survey of the entire workforce of tdhe fishing industry.
Now you say the fishermen hardly matter?!
Outside of Banffshire and Buchan coast containing Peterhead largely no, that has an SNP majority of 23% and is not even in the top 10 Tory Holyrood constituency target seats, if the Tories won there the SNP would not only have failed to win a majority but would even be at risk of not even being largest party
Just read what you have read in that thread. It is contradictory between this and the last thread. One moment you say the fishermen matter and the next they don't. r
They matter at Westminster more for the Tories as Banff and Buchan is a Tory seat, at Holyrood less so as Banffshire and Buchan coast is an SNP seat and not even on the Tory target list
They are such self-indulgent, posturing, adolescent twats. What if there is actually a very big rebellion and the Brexit deal is somehow voted down? It is highly unlikely but not impossible.
Then we get No Deal. That is what the Lib Dems are literally voting for. And the SNP. No Deal.
Let the Lib Dems be expunged from history. There is no reason for them to exist any more.
The LDs are now basically nationally an economically centrist party for diehard Remainers in England and Wales and for Unionist diehard Remainers in Scotland, plus for a few more voters who like LD councillors allegedly mending potholes and opposing new housing at local level but who will still vote Tory or Labour at Westminster level
"Die Hard remain" is not a centrist position (nor a Xmas movie). We have left and are not rejoining anytime soon, centrists recognise reality unlike ideologues. Having closer links to the EU than this deal works, but there is a high chance all parties including the Tories will be selling variants of that come 2024.
LDs need re-invention or they will cease to be relevant (relevant at all, before the inevitable put downs that they never were). Green should be their future.
About 20 to 25% of voters are still diehard Remainers, with both Labour and the Tories now backing the Brexit Deal the LDs could largely have that pool all to themselves, certainly in England
This is why Starmer is a fool for supporting your deal. You are now claiming Labour are backing Brexit.
Time to bring the drawbridge up on the M1 and the A1.
Would it make more sense to move patients to the Nightingale and borrow staff from other areas if possible rather than taking the London variant northwards?
Tier 5 soon...
Nightingales cannot support ICU level care. Fortunately intubated patients are low risk of transmission because of the filters in the system, and quality of PPE available.
Worth noting that such mutual aid has long been part of practice. We took some patients from the NW and Yorkshire earlier in the year in our ICU in Leicester, and get national referrals for ECMO.
Jesus. We could actually break the world record, next week?
Your burst of optimism didn't last long.
Yes, my bipolarity just peaked, methinks
Common complaint in these parts,
I'd fear that being bipolar is one of those things that many people on the internet are inclined to self diagnose as (not suggesting that is the case with Leon), like Asperger's Syndrome or OCD.
True OCD is a disabling condition. You can start by developing an intense fear of something - say a heart attack - and irrationally even though you are an extremely rational person you decide that stamping your foot 3 times before you leave the house will ward it off. You do the stamp, go out, return safely, and conclude that it worked. You're now on the hook. Every time you go out you have to do it. Then you start adding things. Stop walking every 100 paces and surreptitiously stamp 3 times. Every 50 paces. Every 25. Progress becomes painfully slow. And then it occurs to you that you need routines for the home. Ever more elaborate physical performances, perhaps involving objects, and mental mantras, spoken or unspoken, become compulsory because in your mind you believe, you know, that if you don't do them, and do them exactly right, the Thing you dread will happen. It's absolutely no joke.
The root of OCD is surprisingly positive. The rituals and tics spring from an idea that these will prevent something bad happening, generally to loved ones.
Cognitive Behavioral Therapy is very good for this condition, and helping channel that concern for others into less disruptive and more constructive directions.
Funnily enough in the light of what I just wrote about optimism and happiness, I suffer very badly from tics to the extent that in the past I have been known to tear tendons in my neck through straining them so much. Imagine Gordon Brown's jaw clench but on steroids.
It is better these days although it goes through cycles and includes straining rhythmic straining of tendons, clenching and grinding teeth and jaw, breathing irregularities and verbal tics and hesitations. I have lived with it for 40 years now since I was 14 and never had it properly diagnosed and the only thing that might change that is I am starting to see similar in my 13 year old son so it would be nice to know what the cause is and whether anything can be done about it.
Gavin Williamson is so incompetent I bet that he pays full price for a sofa at DFS.
David Herdson's reply
'Chris Grayling pays five years in advance.'
And then moves house and forgets he ordered the furniture.
And cannot find where he has moved to
Now Brexit Is Done, can we get rid of the Get Brexit Done cabinet?
(Subsidiary questions- 1 Who needs to go? 2 Can they be dumped without causing Backbench Unhappiness? 3 Who is available on the subs bench? I don't know any more, but I'm not optimistic of there being a Pile Of Talent, just waiting their moment.)
There are quite a few conservatives who would like to see several leave the stage including Williamson and Jenrick
I hope that Penny Mordaunt will be brought back into cabinet with other female candidates
Jenrick is a Brexit hero and Williamson knows where the bodies are buried, so no chance!
I think in Scotland now we have a trade deal with the EU the chances of an SNP majority at Holyrood next year are much less than if there had been No Deal. The SNP vote should fall to their 45% hardcore and given the SNP got 46.5% in 2016 they could even lose seats.
In the local elections given the Tories were 11% ahead of Labour in the 2017 county council elections the Tories will likely lose some county councillors to Labour even if they stay ahead and Labour should hold the London Mayoralty and Assembly comfortably.
The District elections are likely to be relatively better for the Tories as Labour were 1% ahead already when they were last up in 2016. In Wales the Tories may also gain seats from Labour and Abolish the Assembly will likely enter the Senedd for the first time
What passes for a trade deal. Everone from the bankers to the farmers to the fisherpersons is unhappy. Three crucial Unionist vote categories in Scotland.
There are far fewer bankers in Scotland than in London and they are mainly concentrated in Edinburgh where the LDs and Labour are the main challengers to the SNP in more seats than the Tories anyway.
Farmers and fishermen combined make up less than 1% of Scottish voters, the latter are concentrated in Banff and Buchan which is already SNP at Holyrood and not even in the top 10 Conservative target seats. If they want a harder deal they will vote for Farage and UKIP anyway not SNP.
The vast majority of Scots especially the 55% Unionist majority will be pleased No Deal has been avoided and will not take kindly to Sturgeon both voting against the Deal and continuing to push for indyref2 rather than focusing on domestic politics and the pandemic. She is setting herself up for a May 2017 style fall, if Sturgeon fails to get a thumping SNP majority next May she faces humiliation and SNP civil war
You love a bit of thumping, eh? I notice you've gone a bit quiet on the old tactical voting stuff. It was always a bit weird that someone whose MO was telling people who didn't vote Tory to eff off was suggesting tp people that normally voted SCon/SLab/SLD that they should vote for another party.
They are such self-indulgent, posturing, adolescent twats. What if there is actually a very big rebellion and the Brexit deal is somehow voted down? It is highly unlikely but not impossible.
Then we get No Deal. That is what the Lib Dems are literally voting for. And the SNP. No Deal.
Let the Lib Dems be expunged from history. There is no reason for them to exist any more.
The LDs are now basically nationally an economically centrist party for diehard Remainers in England and Wales and for Unionist diehard Remainers in Scotland, plus for a few more voters who like LD councillors allegedly mending potholes and opposing new housing at local level but who will still vote Tory or Labour at Westminster level
"Die Hard remain" is not a centrist position (nor a Xmas movie). We have left and are not rejoining anytime soon, centrists recognise reality unlike ideologues. Having closer links to the EU than this deal works, but there is a high chance all parties including the Tories will be selling variants of that come 2024.
LDs need re-invention or they will cease to be relevant (relevant at all, before the inevitable put downs that they never were). Green should be their future.
About 20 to 25% of voters are still diehard Remainers, with both Labour and the Tories now backing the Brexit Deal the LDs could largely have that pool all to themselves, certainly in England
This is why Starmer is a fool for supporting your deal. You are now claiming Labour are backing Brexit.
No, as most Labour seats and most Labour target seats voted Leave.
Blair won a majority in 2005 despite 22% voting LD
I think in Scotland now we have a trade deal with the EU the chances of an SNP majority at Holyrood next year are much less than if there had been No Deal. The SNP vote should fall to their 45% hardcore and given the SNP got 46.5% in 2016 they could even lose seats.
In the local elections given the Tories were 11% ahead of Labour in the 2017 county council elections the Tories will likely lose some county councillors to Labour even if they stay ahead and Labour should hold the London Mayoralty and Assembly comfortably.
The District elections are likely to be relatively better for the Tories as Labour were 1% ahead already when they were last up in 2016. In Wales the Tories may also gain seats from Labour and Abolish the Assembly will likely enter the Senedd for the first time
What passes for a trade deal. Everone from the bankers to the farmers to the fisherpersons is unhappy. Three crucial Unionist vote categories in Scotland.
There are far fewer bankers in Scotland than in London and they are mainly concentrated in Edinburgh where the LDs and Labour are the main challengers to the SNP in more seats than the Tories anyway.
Farmers and fishermen combined make up less than 1% of Scottish voters, the latter are concentrated in Banff and Buchan which is already SNP at Holyrood and not even in the top 10 Conservative target seats. If they want a harder deal they will vote for Farage and UKIP anyway not SNP.
The vast majority of Scots especially the 55% Unionist majority will be pleased No Deal has been avoided and will not take kindly to Sturgeon both voting against the Deal and continuing to push for indyref2 rather than focusing on domestic politics and the pandemic. She is setting herself up for a May 2017 style fall, if Sturgeon fails to get a thumping SNP majority next May she faces humiliation and SNP civil war
You love a bit of thumping, eh? I notice you've gone a bit quiet on the old tactical voting stuff. It was always a bit weird that someone whose MO was telling people who didn't vote Tory to eff off was suggesting tp people that normally voted SCon/SLab/SLD that they should vote for another party.
If the diehard Remain vote next year in Scotland splits between the SNP, Labour, the Greens and LDs, the Tories could pick up Leavers from all of them, they would have the 38% of Leave voting Scots all to themselves and still have some Remain anti indyref2 voters where they are the main challengers to the SNP.
Really enjoying this prediction series - Alastair's effort seems very plausible to me.
I can't agree though that Labour are dangerous and incompetent.
Alastair rightly picks out March, Sept and Dec as the moments when Boris messed up. In March Starmer wasn't saying much (but he was fighting a leadership campaign to be fair).
As soon as he heard the scientific advice for September, he called for action and broke with the govt. And in December he was ahead of the curve and calling for action.
Pity about Wales ... maybe SKS should be giving Mark the benefit of his critical thinking and advice rather than Boris?
Because no-one is not going to believe Labour would have done better against COVID, if the one part of the UK they actually control ends up doing worst of all.
Well you're right that Drakeford has done a bad job as well. Both of them should have listened to Starmer and not lifted restrictions as early as they did.
I think in Scotland now we have a trade deal with the EU the chances of an SNP majority at Holyrood next year are much less than if there had been No Deal. The SNP vote should fall to their 45% hardcore and given the SNP got 46.5% in 2016 they could even lose seats.
In the local elections given the Tories were 11% ahead of Labour in the 2017 county council elections the Tories will likely lose some county councillors to Labour even if they stay ahead and Labour should hold the London Mayoralty and Assembly comfortably.
The District elections are likely to be relatively better for the Tories as Labour were 1% ahead already when they were last up in 2016. In Wales the Tories may also gain seats from Labour and Abolish the Assembly will likely enter the Senedd for the first time
What passes for a trade deal. Everone from the bankers to the farmers to the fisherpersons is unhappy. Three crucial Unionist vote categories in Scotland.
There are far fewer bankers in Scotland than in London and they are mainly concentrated in Edinburgh where the LDs and Labour are the main challengers to the SNP in more seats than the Tories anyway.
Farmers and fishermen combined make up less than 1% of Scottish voters, the latter are concentrated in Banff and Buchan which is already SNP at Holyrood and not even in the top 10 Conservative target seats. If they want a harder deal they will vote for Farage and UKIP anyway not SNP.
The vast majority of Scots especially the 55% Unionist majority will be pleased No Deal has been avoided and will not take kindly to Sturgeon both voting against the Deal and continuing to push for indyref2 rather than focusing on domestic politics and the pandemic. She is setting herself up for a May 2017 style fall, if Sturgeon fails to get a thumping SNP majority next May she faces humiliation and SNP civil war
You love a bit of thumping, eh? I notice you've gone a bit quiet on the old tactical voting stuff. It was always a bit weird that someone whose MO was telling people who didn't vote Tory to eff off was suggesting tp people that normally voted SCon/SLab/SLD that they should vote for another party.
They wouldn't pass the sniff test. Not many C of E congregations up here.*
*(for those who are not familiar with it, what we have in Scotland is the Episcopalian Church - independent of the C of E and of equal status within the Anglican Communion. It was also a nonconformist church in Scxotland until the abolition of state statusd for the main C of Scotland.)
They are such self-indulgent, posturing, adolescent twats. What if there is actually a very big rebellion and the Brexit deal is somehow voted down? It is highly unlikely but not impossible.
Then we get No Deal. That is what the Lib Dems are literally voting for. And the SNP. No Deal.
Let the Lib Dems be expunged from history. There is no reason for them to exist any more.
The LDs are now basically nationally an economically centrist party for diehard Remainers in England and Wales and for Unionist diehard Remainers in Scotland, plus for a few more voters who like LD councillors allegedly mending potholes and opposing new housing at local level but who will still vote Tory or Labour at Westminster level
"Die Hard remain" is not a centrist position (nor a Xmas movie). We have left and are not rejoining anytime soon, centrists recognise reality unlike ideologues. Having closer links to the EU than this deal works, but there is a high chance all parties including the Tories will be selling variants of that come 2024.
LDs need re-invention or they will cease to be relevant (relevant at all, before the inevitable put downs that they never were). Green should be their future.
About 20 to 25% of voters are still diehard Remainers, with both Labour and the Tories now backing the Brexit Deal the LDs could largely have that pool all to themselves, certainly in England
This is why Starmer is a fool for supporting your deal. You are now claiming Labour are backing Brexit.
No, as most Labour seats and most Labour target seats voted Leave.
Blair won a majority in 2005 despite 22% voting LD
This subject has been done very exhaustively, but the polls show that majority have been aginst Brexit, particularly a harder Brexit, for three years. We are where we are because the Tory party and the Brexit Party co-ordinated together much better than Remainers in the Labour and Liberal Democrat parties.
I think in Scotland now we have a trade deal with the EU the chances of an SNP majority at Holyrood next year are much less than if there had been No Deal. The SNP vote should fall to their 45% hardcore and given the SNP got 46.5% in 2016 they could even lose seats.
In the local elections given the Tories were 11% ahead of Labour in the 2017 county council elections the Tories will likely lose some county councillors to Labour even if they stay ahead and Labour should hold the London Mayoralty and Assembly comfortably.
The District elections are likely to be relatively better for the Tories as Labour were 1% ahead already when they were last up in 2016. In Wales the Tories may also gain seats from Labour and Abolish the Assembly will likely enter the Senedd for the first time
What passes for a trade deal. Everone from the bankers to the farmers to the fisherpersons is unhappy. Three crucial Unionist vote categories in Scotland.
There are far fewer bankers in Scotland than in London and they are mainly concentrated in Edinburgh where the LDs and Labour are the main challengers to the SNP in more seats than the Tories anyway.
Farmers and fishermen combined make up less than 1% of Scottish voters, the latter are concentrated in Banff and Buchan which is already SNP at Holyrood and not even in the top 10 Conservative target seats. If they want a harder deal they will vote for Farage and UKIP anyway not SNP.
The vast majority of Scots especially the 55% Unionist majority will be pleased No Deal has been avoided and will not take kindly to Sturgeon both voting against the Deal and continuing to push for indyref2 rather than focusing on domestic politics and the pandemic. She is setting herself up for a May 2017 style fall, if Sturgeon fails to get a thumping SNP majority next May she faces humiliation and SNP civil war
You spent months assuring us all that Tory vistories were nailed on along the coastal strip because of the hordes of fisherpersons, including trying to make out that a self-selected survey of the skippers of larger fishing boats was a reliable survey of the entire workforce of tdhe fishing industry.
Now you say the fishermen hardly matter?!
Outside of Banffshire and Buchan coast containing Peterhead largely no, that has an SNP majority of 23% and is not even in the top 10 Tory Holyrood constituency target seats, if the Tories won there the SNP would not only have failed to win a majority but would even be at risk of not even being largest party
Good job the Tories have signed a deal to cut the Cod and Haddock that can be caught in the North Sea off Peterhead. They voted for Brexit and then for David Duguid so that they can catch MORE fish. I'm sure they will reward your party by voting for them in larger than ever numbers.
Jesus. We could actually break the world record, next week?
Your burst of optimism didn't last long.
Yes, my bipolarity just peaked, methinks
Common complaint in these parts,
I'd fear that being bipolar is one of those things that many people on the internet are inclined to self diagnose as (not suggesting that is the case with Leon), like Asperger's Syndrome or OCD.
True OCD is a disabling condition. You can start by developing an intense fear of something - say a heart attack - and irrationally even though you are an extremely rational person you decide that stamping your foot 3 times before you leave the house will ward it off. You do the stamp, go out, return safely, and conclude that it worked. You're now on the hook. Every time you go out you have to do it. Then you start adding things. Stop walking every 100 paces and surreptitiously stamp 3 times. Every 50 paces. Every 25. Progress becomes painfully slow. And then it occurs to you that you need routines for the home. Ever more elaborate physical performances, perhaps involving objects, and mental mantras, spoken or unspoken, become compulsory because in your mind you believe, you know, that if you don't do them, and do them exactly right, the Thing you dread will happen. It's absolutely no joke.
The root of OCD is surprisingly positive. The rituals and tics spring from an idea that these will prevent something bad happening, generally to loved ones.
Cognitive Behavioral Therapy is very good for this condition, and helping channel that concern for others into less disruptive and more constructive directions.
Funnily enough in the light of what I just wrote about optimism and happiness, I suffer very badly from tics to the extent that in the past I have been known to tear tendons in my neck through straining them so much. Imagine Gordon Brown's jaw clench but on steroids.
It is better these days although it goes through cycles and includes straining rhythmic straining of tendons, clenching and grinding teeth and jaw, breathing irregularities and verbal tics and hesitations. I have lived with it for 40 years now since I was 14 and never had it properly diagnosed and the only thing that might change that is I am starting to see similar in my 13 year old son so it would be nice to know what the cause is and whether anything can be done about it.
That sounds more an involuntary tic, rather than an OCD sort. Perhaps it is cervical dystonia?
Some of these tics respond well to botox, and interestingly, even when the bottom has worn off the relief can last.
They are such self-indulgent, posturing, adolescent twats. What if there is actually a very big rebellion and the Brexit deal is somehow voted down? It is highly unlikely but not impossible.
Then we get No Deal. That is what the Lib Dems are literally voting for. And the SNP. No Deal.
Let the Lib Dems be expunged from history. There is no reason for them to exist any more.
The LDs are now basically nationally an economically centrist party for diehard Remainers in England and Wales and for Unionist diehard Remainers in Scotland, plus for a few more voters who like LD councillors allegedly mending potholes and opposing new housing at local level but who will still vote Tory or Labour at Westminster level
"Die Hard remain" is not a centrist position (nor a Xmas movie). We have left and are not rejoining anytime soon, centrists recognise reality unlike ideologues. Having closer links to the EU than this deal works, but there is a high chance all parties including the Tories will be selling variants of that come 2024.
LDs need re-invention or they will cease to be relevant (relevant at all, before the inevitable put downs that they never were). Green should be their future.
About 20 to 25% of voters are still diehard Remainers, with both Labour and the Tories now backing the Brexit Deal the LDs could largely have that pool all to themselves, certainly in England
This is why Starmer is a fool for supporting your deal. You are now claiming Labour are backing Brexit.
No, as most Labour seats and most Labour target seats voted Leave.
Blair won a majority in 2005 despite 22% voting LD
This subject has been done very exhaustively, but the polls show that majority have been aginst Brexit, particularly a harder Brexit, for three years. We are where we are because the Tory party and the Brexit Party co-ordinated together much better than Remainers in Labour and Liberal Democrats.
I think in Scotland now we have a trade deal with the EU the chances of an SNP majority at Holyrood next year are much less than if there had been No Deal. The SNP vote should fall to their 45% hardcore and given the SNP got 46.5% in 2016 they could even lose seats.
In the local elections given the Tories were 11% ahead of Labour in the 2017 county council elections the Tories will likely lose some county councillors to Labour even if they stay ahead and Labour should hold the London Mayoralty and Assembly comfortably.
The District elections are likely to be relatively better for the Tories as Labour were 1% ahead already when they were last up in 2016. In Wales the Tories may also gain seats from Labour and Abolish the Assembly will likely enter the Senedd for the first time
What passes for a trade deal. Everone from the bankers to the farmers to the fisherpersons is unhappy. Three crucial Unionist vote categories in Scotland.
There are far fewer bankers in Scotland than in London and they are mainly concentrated in Edinburgh where the LDs and Labour are the main challengers to the SNP in more seats than the Tories anyway.
Farmers and fishermen combined make up less than 1% of Scottish voters, the latter are concentrated in Banff and Buchan which is already SNP at Holyrood and not even in the top 10 Conservative target seats. If they want a harder deal they will vote for Farage and UKIP anyway not SNP.
The vast majority of Scots especially the 55% Unionist majority will be pleased No Deal has been avoided and will not take kindly to Sturgeon both voting against the Deal and continuing to push for indyref2 rather than focusing on domestic politics and the pandemic. She is setting herself up for a May 2017 style fall, if Sturgeon fails to get a thumping SNP majority next May she faces humiliation and SNP civil war
You love a bit of thumping, eh? I notice you've gone a bit quiet on the old tactical voting stuff. It was always a bit weird that someone whose MO was telling people who didn't vote Tory to eff off was suggesting tp people that normally voted SCon/SLab/SLD that they should vote for another party.
If the diehard Remain vote next year in Scotland splits between the SNP, Labour, the Greens and LDs, the Tories could pick up Leavers from all of them, they would have the 38% of Leave voting Scots all to themselves and still have some Remain anti indyref2 voters where they are the main challengers to the SNP.
Gavin Williamson is so incompetent I bet that he pays full price for a sofa at DFS.
David Herdson's reply
'Chris Grayling pays five years in advance.'
And then moves house and forgets he ordered the furniture.
And cannot find where he has moved to
Now Brexit Is Done, can we get rid of the Get Brexit Done cabinet?
(Subsidiary questions- 1 Who needs to go? 2 Can they be dumped without causing Backbench Unhappiness? 3 Who is available on the subs bench? I don't know any more, but I'm not optimistic of there being a Pile Of Talent, just waiting their moment.)
There are quite a few conservatives who would like to see several leave the stage including Williamson and Jenrick
I hope that Penny Mordaunt will be brought back into cabinet with other female candidates
Jenrick is a Brexit hero and Williamson knows where the bodies are buried, so no chance!
How is Jenrick a Brexit hero? He is a third rate scumbag even to Leavers.
I think in Scotland now we have a trade deal with the EU the chances of an SNP majority at Holyrood next year are much less than if there had been No Deal. The SNP vote should fall to their 45% hardcore and given the SNP got 46.5% in 2016 they could even lose seats.
In the local elections given the Tories were 11% ahead of Labour in the 2017 county council elections the Tories will likely lose some county councillors to Labour even if they stay ahead and Labour should hold the London Mayoralty and Assembly comfortably.
The District elections are likely to be relatively better for the Tories as Labour were 1% ahead already when they were last up in 2016. In Wales the Tories may also gain seats from Labour and Abolish the Assembly will likely enter the Senedd for the first time
What passes for a trade deal. Everone from the bankers to the farmers to the fisherpersons is unhappy. Three crucial Unionist vote categories in Scotland.
There are far fewer bankers in Scotland than in London and they are mainly concentrated in Edinburgh where the LDs and Labour are the main challengers to the SNP in more seats than the Tories anyway.
Farmers and fishermen combined make up less than 1% of Scottish voters, the latter are concentrated in Banff and Buchan which is already SNP at Holyrood and not even in the top 10 Conservative target seats. If they want a harder deal they will vote for Farage and UKIP anyway not SNP.
The vast majority of Scots especially the 55% Unionist majority will be pleased No Deal has been avoided and will not take kindly to Sturgeon both voting against the Deal and continuing to push for indyref2 rather than focusing on domestic politics and the pandemic. She is setting herself up for a May 2017 style fall, if Sturgeon fails to get a thumping SNP majority next May she faces humiliation and SNP civil war
You love a bit of thumping, eh? I notice you've gone a bit quiet on the old tactical voting stuff. It was always a bit weird that someone whose MO was telling people who didn't vote Tory to eff off was suggesting tp people that normally voted SCon/SLab/SLD that they should vote for another party.
If the diehard Remain vote next year in Scotland splits between the SNP, Labour, the Greens and LDs, the Tories could pick up Leavers from all of them, they would have the 38% of Leave voting Scots all to themselves and still have some Remain anti indyref2 voters where they are the main challengers to the SNP.
You do know, Labour support Brexit, officially?
SLab don't, hence the only Westminster SLab MP will vote against the Deal
"Mike Park, the chief executive of the Scottish White Fish Producers Association, said his members were “deeply aggrieved” about the immediate future. It was far from clear whether fleets would benefit greatly once the transition period was over.
“The issue of sovereignty and our future ability to negotiate additional shares after the five-and-a-half-year window would seem clouded by so much complexity that it is difficult at this time to see how the UK government can use its newly recovered sovereignty to improve the situation of my members,” he said."
Perhaps the government could send out someone trusted and knowledgeable like Robert Jenrick to do a head to head interview with these fishing folk and tell them how they are wrong about their own industry. They can't push back more on their fuckup other than by using the HYUFD stratagy - deny, sneer, attack.
A nice irony that the Tories when they were gung ho to get into the EC sold out the fisher folk and now they're gung ho to get out of the EU they've also sold out the fisher folk.
Now children, even you slow ones at the back that smell a bit fishy, what's the lesson for today? Come on now, you know you can do it, NEVER TRUST A . . . . . ?
Time to bring the drawbridge up on the M1 and the A1.
Would it make more sense to move patients to the Nightingale and borrow staff from other areas if possible rather than taking the London variant northwards?
Tier 5 soon...
Nightingales cannot support ICU level care. Fortunately intubated patients are low risk of transmission because of the filters in the system, and quality of PPE available.
Worth noting that such mutual aid has long been part of practice. We took some patients from the NW and Yorkshire earlier in the year in our ICU in Leicester, and get national referrals for ECMO.
My bro is COO for a London Trust and he tells me that the PPE is so good that not a single doctor or nurse involved in Covid treatment in his hospitals has caught the disease on duty since the pandemic began.
Also of the firm view that the Nightingales were a PR driven waste of resource.
I think in Scotland now we have a trade deal with the EU the chances of an SNP majority at Holyrood next year are much less than if there had been No Deal. The SNP vote should fall to their 45% hardcore and given the SNP got 46.5% in 2016 they could even lose seats.
In the local elections given the Tories were 11% ahead of Labour in the 2017 county council elections the Tories will likely lose some county councillors to Labour even if they stay ahead and Labour should hold the London Mayoralty and Assembly comfortably.
The District elections are likely to be relatively better for the Tories as Labour were 1% ahead already when they were last up in 2016. In Wales the Tories may also gain seats from Labour and Abolish the Assembly will likely enter the Senedd for the first time
What passes for a trade deal. Everone from the bankers to the farmers to the fisherpersons is unhappy. Three crucial Unionist vote categories in Scotland.
There are far fewer bankers in Scotland than in London and they are mainly concentrated in Edinburgh where the LDs and Labour are the main challengers to the SNP in more seats than the Tories anyway.
Farmers and fishermen combined make up less than 1% of Scottish voters, the latter are concentrated in Banff and Buchan which is already SNP at Holyrood and not even in the top 10 Conservative target seats. If they want a harder deal they will vote for Farage and UKIP anyway not SNP.
The vast majority of Scots especially the 55% Unionist majority will be pleased No Deal has been avoided and will not take kindly to Sturgeon both voting against the Deal and continuing to push for indyref2 rather than focusing on domestic politics and the pandemic. She is setting herself up for a May 2017 style fall, if Sturgeon fails to get a thumping SNP majority next May she faces humiliation and SNP civil war
You spent months assuring us all that Tory vistories were nailed on along the coastal strip because of the hordes of fisherpersons, including trying to make out that a self-selected survey of the skippers of larger fishing boats was a reliable survey of the entire workforce of tdhe fishing industry.
Now you say the fishermen hardly matter?!
Outside of Banffshire and Buchan coast containing Peterhead largely no, that has an SNP majority of 23% and is not even in the top 10 Tory Holyrood constituency target seats, if the Tories won there the SNP would not only have failed to win a majority but would even be at risk of not even being largest party
Good job the Tories have signed a deal to cut the Cod and Haddock that can be caught in the North Sea off Peterhead. They voted for Brexit and then for David Duguid so that they can catch MORE fish. I'm sure they will reward your party by voting for them in larger than ever numbers.
Peterhead and Fraserburgh, the only major fishing ports in Scotland the Tories have won at Westminster, are both in a safe SNP seat at Holyrood, Banffshire and Buchan coast, not even on the Tory Holyrood target list
Tory MPs finally losing patience with Williamson and the DfE. Their email inboxes must be red hot with complaints from parents - even the Jezza Vine phone in on Radio 2 was struggling to find anyone demanding schools be kept open.
Note that the government has never posted any detail of the numbers of teacher infections and deaths - despite being thus being repeatedly requested by teachers’ representatives.
Which suggests to me the the insistence that “schools are completely safe” is, if not an absolute lie, then one of those statements politicians don’t care if it’s true or not.
My University did for our staff - most we ever got to was 4 positive cases in a week, and that included 2 who had gone on a dirty weekend to Cornwall.
Yes, but with respect the contact with students is not remotely comparable with that for school teachers. If keeping schools open is an overriding national priority, which we’re repeatedly assured it is, why is government not collecting and publishing those figures ?
They weren't even asking schools for attendance impact data on sending home through internal track and trace. Halfon asked Nick Gibb at Ed Select Committee regarding impact on Years 11 and 13. He had no idea. He then claimed that he couldn't possible ask schools for this data, as they were far too busy.
We collect this data every day, it's called the attendance register. Most secondary schools admin offices could get figures within a few minutes.
I think in Scotland now we have a trade deal with the EU the chances of an SNP majority at Holyrood next year are much less than if there had been No Deal. The SNP vote should fall to their 45% hardcore and given the SNP got 46.5% in 2016 they could even lose seats.
In the local elections given the Tories were 11% ahead of Labour in the 2017 county council elections the Tories will likely lose some county councillors to Labour even if they stay ahead and Labour should hold the London Mayoralty and Assembly comfortably.
The District elections are likely to be relatively better for the Tories as Labour were 1% ahead already when they were last up in 2016. In Wales the Tories may also gain seats from Labour and Abolish the Assembly will likely enter the Senedd for the first time
What passes for a trade deal. Everone from the bankers to the farmers to the fisherpersons is unhappy. Three crucial Unionist vote categories in Scotland.
There are far fewer bankers in Scotland than in London and they are mainly concentrated in Edinburgh where the LDs and Labour are the main challengers to the SNP in more seats than the Tories anyway.
Farmers and fishermen combined make up less than 1% of Scottish voters, the latter are concentrated in Banff and Buchan which is already SNP at Holyrood and not even in the top 10 Conservative target seats. If they want a harder deal they will vote for Farage and UKIP anyway not SNP.
The vast majority of Scots especially the 55% Unionist majority will be pleased No Deal has been avoided and will not take kindly to Sturgeon both voting against the Deal and continuing to push for indyref2 rather than focusing on domestic politics and the pandemic. She is setting herself up for a May 2017 style fall, if Sturgeon fails to get a thumping SNP majority next May she faces humiliation and SNP civil war
You love a bit of thumping, eh? I notice you've gone a bit quiet on the old tactical voting stuff. It was always a bit weird that someone whose MO was telling people who didn't vote Tory to eff off was suggesting tp people that normally voted SCon/SLab/SLD that they should vote for another party.
If the diehard Remain vote next year in Scotland splits between the SNP, Labour, the Greens and LDs, the Tories could pick up Leavers from all of them, they would have the 38% of Leave voting Scots all to themselves and still have some Remain anti indyref2 voters where they are the main challengers to the SNP.
You do know, Labour support Brexit, officially?
SLab don't, hence the only Westminster SLab MP will vote against the Deal
That'll be really useful - Morningside MP votes against the deal. Really, really relevant to a fisherman in Montrose or Mallaig.
And there is no such thing as SLAB. It's all one Labour Party. Just have a look at the Electoral Commission website.
Jesus. We could actually break the world record, next week?
Your burst of optimism didn't last long.
Yes, my bipolarity just peaked, methinks
Common complaint in these parts,
I'd fear that being bipolar is one of those things that many people on the internet are inclined to self diagnose as (not suggesting that is the case with Leon), like Asperger's Syndrome or OCD.
True OCD is a disabling condition. You can start by developing an intense fear of something - say a heart attack - and irrationally even though you are an extremely rational person you decide that stamping your foot 3 times before you leave the house will ward it off. You do the stamp, go out, return safely, and conclude that it worked. You're now on the hook. Every time you go out you have to do it. Then you start adding things. Stop walking every 100 paces and surreptitiously stamp 3 times. Every 50 paces. Every 25. Progress becomes painfully slow. And then it occurs to you that you need routines for the home. Ever more elaborate physical performances, perhaps involving objects, and mental mantras, spoken or unspoken, become compulsory because in your mind you believe, you know, that if you don't do them, and do them exactly right, the Thing you dread will happen. It's absolutely no joke.
The root of OCD is surprisingly positive. The rituals and tics spring from an idea that these will prevent something bad happening, generally to loved ones.
Cognitive Behavioral Therapy is very good for this condition, and helping channel that concern for others into less disruptive and more constructive directions.
Funnily enough in the light of what I just wrote about optimism and happiness, I suffer very badly from tics to the extent that in the past I have been known to tear tendons in my neck through straining them so much. Imagine Gordon Brown's jaw clench but on steroids.
It is better these days although it goes through cycles and includes straining rhythmic straining of tendons, clenching and grinding teeth and jaw, breathing irregularities and verbal tics and hesitations. I have lived with it for 40 years now since I was 14 and never had it properly diagnosed and the only thing that might change that is I am starting to see similar in my 13 year old son so it would be nice to know what the cause is and whether anything can be done about it.
That sounds more an involuntary tic, rather than an OCD sort. Perhaps it is cervical dystonia?
Some of these tics respond well to botox, and interestingly, even when the bottom has worn off the relief can last.
Lets wait and see how Christmas numbers pan out. What we can say is Germany is no longer in the premier League of COVID response countries.
I think we've never really been up there. The Premier League was always Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong and - yes - China.
Don't forget Australia and New Zealand.
Correct, that was lazy.
I think you were a bit unfair about Germany. Germany's initial response was very good. Lots of testing, closed the borders, lockdown fairly quickly. Not dissimilar to say Australia.
Then came the summer and it has been a series of missteps, from foreign holidays to diet lockdown.
These should have been implemented at least a decade ago. They show the handicap the Conservatives have been under during that time. For example, if they had been implemented even four years ago, Theresa May would not have needed the DUP.....
A line of reasoning which will not reassure people as to the actual need for these reviews to happen periodically.
I'm not reassured that you think it fair that an antiquated electoral set of boundaries should be kept in place to stop the true level of Conservative representation in Parliament.
I think in Scotland now we have a trade deal with the EU the chances of an SNP majority at Holyrood next year are much less than if there had been No Deal. The SNP vote should fall to their 45% hardcore and given the SNP got 46.5% in 2016 they could even lose seats.
In the local elections given the Tories were 11% ahead of Labour in the 2017 county council elections the Tories will likely lose some county councillors to Labour even if they stay ahead and Labour should hold the London Mayoralty and Assembly comfortably.
The District elections are likely to be relatively better for the Tories as Labour were 1% ahead already when they were last up in 2016. In Wales the Tories may also gain seats from Labour and Abolish the Assembly will likely enter the Senedd for the first time
What passes for a trade deal. Everone from the bankers to the farmers to the fisherpersons is unhappy. Three crucial Unionist vote categories in Scotland.
There are far fewer bankers in Scotland than in London and they are mainly concentrated in Edinburgh where the LDs and Labour are the main challengers to the SNP in more seats than the Tories anyway.
Farmers and fishermen combined make up less than 1% of Scottish voters, the latter are concentrated in Banff and Buchan which is already SNP at Holyrood and not even in the top 10 Conservative target seats. If they want a harder deal they will vote for Farage and UKIP anyway not SNP.
The vast majority of Scots especially the 55% Unionist majority will be pleased No Deal has been avoided and will not take kindly to Sturgeon both voting against the Deal and continuing to push for indyref2 rather than focusing on domestic politics and the pandemic. She is setting herself up for a May 2017 style fall, if Sturgeon fails to get a thumping SNP majority next May she faces humiliation and SNP civil war
You love a bit of thumping, eh? I notice you've gone a bit quiet on the old tactical voting stuff. It was always a bit weird that someone whose MO was telling people who didn't vote Tory to eff off was suggesting tp people that normally voted SCon/SLab/SLD that they should vote for another party.
If the diehard Remain vote next year in Scotland splits between the SNP, Labour, the Greens and LDs, the Tories could pick up Leavers from all of them, they would have the 38% of Leave voting Scots all to themselves and still have some Remain anti indyref2 voters where they are the main challengers to the SNP.
You do know, Labour support Brexit, officially?
SLab don't, hence the only Westminster SLab MP will vote against the Deal
That'll be really useful - Morningside MP votes against the deal. Really, really relevant to a fisherman in Montrose or Mallaig.
And there is no such thing as SLAB. It's all one Labour Party. Just have a look at the Electoral Commission website.
Not a single major Scottish fishing port has a Scottish Tory constituency MSP or is even in a Scottish Tory target constituency at Holyrood.
Mallaig is in an SNP seat with the LDs second, Montrose is more based around oil and gas than fishing
These should have been implemented at least a decade ago. They show the handicap the Conservatives have been under during that time. For example, if they had been implemented even four years ago, Theresa May would not have needed the DUP.....
A line of reasoning which will not reassure people as to the actual need for these reviews to happen periodically.
I'm not reassured that you think it fair that an antiquated electoral set of boundaries should be kept in place to stop the true level of Conservative representation in Parliament.
When did I say that? It's perfectly clear from my comment that I think it important the reviews happen since I refer to the 'actual need' for them, and from other comments that I think they should have happened and been implemented years ago. Stop being so paranoid.
The point was that leading with the perceived benefit to the Conservatives gives succour to the conspiracists who think it is driven by partisan desire and will amount to gerrymandering, when in fact the boundaries are out of date and need amending, and whether that benefits the Conservatives or someone else is immaterial to that so long as the process is fair and impartial, which the Commission will ensure.
It's depressingly common that people assume any critical comment must be an indication of total opposition.
I've been watching Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy on Britbox. I've been aware it's a classic and seen bits, but never actually watched the series start to finish. Peerless understated performances from the leads. It felt a real window on that world.
I'm now watching a 1960's scifi drama called Timeslip, about some kids that slip back in time to WW2. Special effects are rudimentary to say the very least, even for the era where such things were pretty much 'trick photography', but it's quite fun. Not sure if I'll see it through.
I absolutely adore the scene where Smiley is questioning Heydon in a mumbly kind of way, cleaning his glasses with his tie and then, as he gets to the key question he puts them on and suddenly Heydon is in the sharpest focus. It was a brilliant piece of direction and cinematography that I first saw a long, long time ago and have never forgotten.
It was a brilliant production of a brilliant novel. LeCarre admitted that after seeing Guinness's performance he could no longer imagine Smiley without seeing the actor. Smiley simply was Guinness and vice versa thereafter.
I must read the book again now that I know that it really was based on the Kim Philby treachery, the discovery of which brought Le Carre's career in espionage to an end.
They are such self-indulgent, posturing, adolescent twats. What if there is actually a very big rebellion and the Brexit deal is somehow voted down? It is highly unlikely but not impossible.
Then we get No Deal. That is what the Lib Dems are literally voting for. And the SNP. No Deal.
Let the Lib Dems be expunged from history. There is no reason for them to exist any more.
The LDs are now basically nationally an economically centrist party for diehard Remainers in England and Wales and for Unionist diehard Remainers in Scotland, plus for a few more voters who like LD councillors allegedly mending potholes and opposing new housing at local level but who will still vote Tory or Labour at Westminster level
"Die Hard remain" is not a centrist position (nor a Xmas movie). We have left and are not rejoining anytime soon, centrists recognise reality unlike ideologues. Having closer links to the EU than this deal works, but there is a high chance all parties including the Tories will be selling variants of that come 2024.
LDs need re-invention or they will cease to be relevant (relevant at all, before the inevitable put downs that they never were). Green should be their future.
About 20 to 25% of voters are still diehard Remainers, with both Labour and the Tories now backing the Brexit Deal the LDs could largely have that pool all to themselves, certainly in England
This is why Starmer is a fool for supporting your deal. You are now claiming Labour are backing Brexit.
But would it necessarily be better for the government to be able to claim either that Labour are backing No Deal, or that Labour haven't taken a position (again) on the most important issue this country has faced in decades?
I don't think they have a good option here.
Personally I think that, when you have no good options, the best thing is to go with your convictions, so that people can say, "I may disagree with him, but at least you know where you stand with him". That, for SKS, would probably be to back the deal as the least worst option for the country.
"Mike Park, the chief executive of the Scottish White Fish Producers Association, said his members were “deeply aggrieved” about the immediate future. It was far from clear whether fleets would benefit greatly once the transition period was over.
“The issue of sovereignty and our future ability to negotiate additional shares after the five-and-a-half-year window would seem clouded by so much complexity that it is difficult at this time to see how the UK government can use its newly recovered sovereignty to improve the situation of my members,” he said."
Perhaps the government could send out someone trusted and knowledgeable like Robert Jenrick to do a head to head interview with these fishing folk and tell them how they are wrong about their own industry. They can't push back more on their fuckup other than by using the HYUFD stratagy - deny, sneer, attack.
A nice irony that the Tories when they were gung ho to get into the EC sold out the fisher folk and now they're gung ho to get out of the EU they've also sold out the fisher folk.
Now children, even you slow ones at the back that smell a bit fishy, what's the lesson for today? Come on now, you know you can do it, NEVER TRUST A . . . . . ?
They'll screw you when you're walking on the street. They'll screw you when you're tryin' to keep your seat. They'll screw you when you're walkin' on the floor. They'll screw you when you're walkin' to the door. But I would not feel so all depressed. Tories only want what's best.
Lets wait and see how Christmas numbers pan out. What we can say is Germany is no longer in the premier League of COVID response countries.
I think we've never really been up there. The Premier League was always Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong and - yes - China.
Don't forget Australia and New Zealand.
Correct, that was lazy.
I think you were a bit unfair about Germany. Germany's initial response was very good. Lots of testing, closed the borders, lockdown fairly quickly. Not dissimilar to say Australia.
Then came the summer and it has been a series of missteps, from foreign holidays to diet lockdown.
The diet lockdown resulted from a mixture of prevention bias and political haggling among regional leaderships, one drawback of federalism. Not preventing your citizens from doing foreign holidays seems to be the norm in democratic societies, but I guess you could call that a misstep.
Grim case numbers and of course deaths as well. It's reasonable to hope increased vaccination especially of the most vulnerable will temper the latter but the case numbers will continue to remain high for some time even as the virus moves through the population and a small proportion (but a significant number) require hospital treatment and all that flows from it.
I've just been texted by the NHS to remind me (as if I needed it) of how under pressure the emergency services are currently.
Elsewhere, I've been giving the political impact of the Trade Deal vote some thought. Labour has been split on Europe since the beginning of time (it seems) yet it's not forgotten it was Labour votes (led by Roy Jenkins) that helped Heath get the European Communities Act get through the Commons in 1972. Nearly 50 years on and while Johnson won't need Labour votes to get the Deal through, he won't be unhappy to receive them and exposing Labour's divisions while the Conservatives appear superficially united probably doesn't hurt him either.
As for those planning to oppose the Deal, it's exactly the same argument as those proposing a second referendum on any Deal failed to grasp (and indeed those who proposed the original referendum failed to grasp).
In short, there's only one reason to vote for it and many reasons to vote against it.
Jesus. We could actually break the world record, next week?
Your burst of optimism didn't last long.
Yes, my bipolarity just peaked, methinks
Common complaint in these parts,
I'd fear that being bipolar is one of those things that many people on the internet are inclined to self diagnose as (not suggesting that is the case with Leon), like Asperger's Syndrome or OCD.
True OCD is a disabling condition. You can start by developing an intense fear of something - say a heart attack - and irrationally even though you are an extremely rational person you decide that stamping your foot 3 times before you leave the house will ward it off. You do the stamp, go out, return safely, and conclude that it worked. You're now on the hook. Every time you go out you have to do it. Then you start adding things. Stop walking every 100 paces and surreptitiously stamp 3 times. Every 50 paces. Every 25. Progress becomes painfully slow. And then it occurs to you that you need routines for the home. Ever more elaborate physical performances, perhaps involving objects, and mental mantras, spoken or unspoken, become compulsory because in your mind you believe, you know, that if you don't do them, and do them exactly right, the Thing you dread will happen. It's absolutely no joke.
The root of OCD is surprisingly positive. The rituals and tics spring from an idea that these will prevent something bad happening, generally to loved ones.
Cognitive Behavioral Therapy is very good for this condition, and helping channel that concern for others into less disruptive and more constructive directions.
Funnily enough in the light of what I just wrote about optimism and happiness, I suffer very badly from tics to the extent that in the past I have been known to tear tendons in my neck through straining them so much. Imagine Gordon Brown's jaw clench but on steroids.
It is better these days although it goes through cycles and includes straining rhythmic straining of tendons, clenching and grinding teeth and jaw, breathing irregularities and verbal tics and hesitations. I have lived with it for 40 years now since I was 14 and never had it properly diagnosed and the only thing that might change that is I am starting to see similar in my 13 year old son so it would be nice to know what the cause is and whether anything can be done about it.
That sounds more an involuntary tic, rather than an OCD sort. Perhaps it is cervical dystonia?
Some of these tics respond well to botox, and interestingly, even when the bottom has worn off the relief can last.
Really enjoying this prediction series - Alastair's effort seems very plausible to me.
I can't agree though that Labour are dangerous and incompetent.
Alastair rightly picks out March, Sept and Dec as the moments when Boris messed up. In March Starmer wasn't saying much (but he was fighting a leadership campaign to be fair).
As soon as he heard the scientific advice for September, he called for action and broke with the govt. And in December he was ahead of the curve and calling for action.
The action he called for in September was proven to be ineffective in Wales though
He's generally taken the position of being a shade stricter than the government, which is great politics.
Really enjoying this prediction series - Alastair's effort seems very plausible to me.
I can't agree though that Labour are dangerous and incompetent.
Alastair rightly picks out March, Sept and Dec as the moments when Boris messed up. In March Starmer wasn't saying much (but he was fighting a leadership campaign to be fair).
As soon as he heard the scientific advice for September, he called for action and broke with the govt. And in December he was ahead of the curve and calling for action.
The action he called for in September was proven to be ineffective in Wales though
He's generally taken the position of being a shade stricter than the government, which is great politics.
The action he called for in September was worse than ineffective - it was downright counterproductive.
Prior to the emergence of Cockney Covid (and even perhaps with it) Wales following the disastrous "2 weeks then it'll be alright Jack" policy was the worst performing nation of all.
Time to bring the drawbridge up on the M1 and the A1.
Would it make more sense to move patients to the Nightingale and borrow staff from other areas if possible rather than taking the London variant northwards?
Tier 5 soon...
Nightingales cannot support ICU level care. Fortunately intubated patients are low risk of transmission because of the filters in the system, and quality of PPE available.
Worth noting that such mutual aid has long been part of practice. We took some patients from the NW and Yorkshire earlier in the year in our ICU in Leicester, and get national referrals for ECMO.
Obviously I was joking about the drawbridge, but how easy is it to move lots of patients that distance? Presumably you'd have to get Yorkshire ambulances to come and fetch them as all the London ones will be busy.
Would the plan normally be to move the Covid cases or other ones?
I thought the point of the Nightingales was that they would take marginal patients leaving more space for the critical ones in hospital - but if that doesn't work in this situation then perhaps their usefulness is rather less than intended...
Jesus. We could actually break the world record, next week?
Your burst of optimism didn't last long.
Yes, my bipolarity just peaked, methinks
Common complaint in these parts,
I've always been bipolar, but I have noticed that many of my friends and relatives are now exhibiting the same symptoms, when they were paragons of equanimity before.
They swing wildly from optimism to despair and back again
Have they turned to drugs and teenage flesh during the periods of optimism?
I think in Scotland now we have a trade deal with the EU the chances of an SNP majority at Holyrood next year are much less than if there had been No Deal. The SNP vote should fall to their 45% hardcore and given the SNP got 46.5% in 2016 they could even lose seats.
In the local elections given the Tories were 11% ahead of Labour in the 2017 county council elections the Tories will likely lose some county councillors to Labour even if they stay ahead and Labour should hold the London Mayoralty and Assembly comfortably.
The District elections are likely to be relatively better for the Tories as Labour were 1% ahead already when they were last up in 2016. In Wales the Tories may also gain seats from Labour and Abolish the Assembly will likely enter the Senedd for the first time
What passes for a trade deal. Everone from the bankers to the farmers to the fisherpersons is unhappy. Three crucial Unionist vote categories in Scotland.
There are far fewer bankers in Scotland than in London and they are mainly concentrated in Edinburgh where the LDs and Labour are the main challengers to the SNP in more seats than the Tories anyway.
Farmers and fishermen combined make up less than 1% of Scottish voters, the latter are concentrated in Banff and Buchan which is already SNP at Holyrood and not even in the top 10 Conservative target seats. If they want a harder deal they will vote for Farage and UKIP anyway not SNP.
The vast majority of Scots especially the 55% Unionist majority will be pleased No Deal has been avoided and will not take kindly to Sturgeon both voting against the Deal and continuing to push for indyref2 rather than focusing on domestic politics and the pandemic. She is setting herself up for a May 2017 style fall, if Sturgeon fails to get a thumping SNP majority next May she faces humiliation and SNP civil war
You love a bit of thumping, eh? I notice you've gone a bit quiet on the old tactical voting stuff. It was always a bit weird that someone whose MO was telling people who didn't vote Tory to eff off was suggesting tp people that normally voted SCon/SLab/SLD that they should vote for another party.
If the diehard Remain vote next year in Scotland splits between the SNP, Labour, the Greens and LDs, the Tories could pick up Leavers from all of them, they would have the 38% of Leave voting Scots all to themselves and still have some Remain anti indyref2 voters where they are the main challengers to the SNP.
You do know, Labour support Brexit, officially?
SLab don't, hence the only Westminster SLab MP will vote against the Deal
Really enjoying this prediction series - Alastair's effort seems very plausible to me.
I can't agree though that Labour are dangerous and incompetent.
Alastair rightly picks out March, Sept and Dec as the moments when Boris messed up. In March Starmer wasn't saying much (but he was fighting a leadership campaign to be fair).
As soon as he heard the scientific advice for September, he called for action and broke with the govt. And in December he was ahead of the curve and calling for action.
The action he called for in September was proven to be ineffective in Wales though
He's generally taken the position of being a shade stricter than the government, which is great politics.
Mr Meeks did not call for a short circuit break followed by a "fill your boots Wales, party on down" release from lockdown.
The fire break failed, and it did fail,. because it was managed badly. Had the fire break been followed by Johnson's excellent tier system it might have worked.
Lets wait and see how Christmas numbers pan out. What we can say is Germany is no longer in the premier League of COVID response countries.
I think we've never really been up there. The Premier League was always Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong and - yes - China.
If you believe the Chinese figures then I have some magic beans to sell to you.
Add an order of magnitude and they still look splendid.
You are talking about the nation that is systematically wiping out the Uighurs and denying it.
They have no credibility.
I firmly agree that there will be a correlation between credibility, in any regard, and the understanding - and practice - of the rule of law and democracy, as it is common in 'our' part of the world, but I'm not quite sure how strong that correlation is and how to compute an accurate estimate of distortion from there. Russia has corrected its stats by a factor of three recently. What's your guess for China? More than an order of magnitude, two?
Lets wait and see how Christmas numbers pan out. What we can say is Germany is no longer in the premier League of COVID response countries.
I think we've never really been up there. The Premier League was always Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong and - yes - China.
Don't forget Australia and New Zealand.
Correct, that was lazy.
I think you were a bit unfair about Germany. Germany's initial response was very good. Lots of testing, closed the borders, lockdown fairly quickly. Not dissimilar to say Australia.
Then came the summer and it has been a series of missteps, from foreign holidays to diet lockdown.
Perhaps more importantly, maybe much more importantly, we now know British Supercovid has been in Germany since November.
If it is concealed but widespread there that would explain almost everything. Standard lockdowns cannot beat Supercovid.
Really enjoying this prediction series - Alastair's effort seems very plausible to me.
I can't agree though that Labour are dangerous and incompetent.
Alastair rightly picks out March, Sept and Dec as the moments when Boris messed up. In March Starmer wasn't saying much (but he was fighting a leadership campaign to be fair).
As soon as he heard the scientific advice for September, he called for action and broke with the govt. And in December he was ahead of the curve and calling for action.
The action he called for in September was proven to be ineffective in Wales though
He's generally taken the position of being a shade stricter than the government, which is great politics.
Mr Meeks did not call for a short circuit break followed by a "fill your boots Wales, party on down" release from lockdown.
The fire break failed, and it did fail,. because it was managed badly. Had the fire break been followed by Johnson's excellent tier system it might have worked.
Perhaps but the Tier system was only what it was because the Tier system had already been tried and failed in October. So it is going around in circles to get to the same point.
The "red wall" is not interested in whether Labour votes for the deal or not. It's not going to change anything. As far as most normal people, rather than politics obsessives, are concerned Brexit was done a year ago. People are more interested in COVID and how often they're allowed to see their friends and family.
That said I still think Labour are doing the right thing to vote for the deal. The alternative at this point is "no deal" and the deal is better than that. It's not going to matter though. This is Boris's deal and that's what history will remember.
Surely this must be the LOWEST such gain for Conservatives from constituency boundary changes in a LONG time?
Since WW2 (in some places even before then) inner cities have been losing population, in contrast to population gains in suburbs and exurbs. Which has resulted in regular losses in safe (or at least safe-ish) for Labour, matched by regular gains for Conservatives.
Indeed, most of the political jockeying by the major UK parties - in and out of office - over seats & boundaries and their reallocation and adjustment, has been a direct reflection of this dynamic. Which Tories have tried to hasten, and Labour to delay, for obvious reasons. When push comes to shove, both (and other) parties have sought to gain further advantage - or shield themselves from the blow - via arguments & evidence in their favor before various UK boundary commissions.
BUT this time, the traditional demographic pattern has shifted. Why? Because while the burbs have continued to grow, this has NOT been at as fast a rate as previously, largely due to urban redevelopment, in particular increased housing and demand for more in the cities, by upscale & upwardly-mobile young & young-ish professionals and the like.
Thus the news is NOT that Tories will benefit from boundary changes.
Instead, it is that they will gain way less than in the not-so-distant past.
Surely this must be the LOWEST such gain for Conservatives from constituency boundary changes in a LONG time?
Since WW2 (in some places even before then) inner cities have been losing population, in contrast to population gains in suburbs and exurbs. Which has resulted in regular losses in safe (or at least safe-ish) for Labour, matched by regular gains for Conservatives.
Indeed, most of the political jockeying by the major UK parties - in and out of office - over seats & boundaries and their reallocation and adjustment, has been a direct reflection of this dynamic. Which Tories have tried to hasten, and Labour to delay, for obvious reasons. When push comes to shove, both (and other) parties have sought to gain further advantage - or shield themselves from the blow - via arguments & evidence in their favor before various UK boundary commissions.
BUT this time, the traditional demographic pattern has shifted. Why? Because while the burbs have continued to grow, this has NOT been at as fast a rate as previously, largely due to urban redevelopment, in particular increased housing and demand for more in the cities, by upscale & upwardly-mobile young & young-ish professionals and the like.
Thus the news is NOT that Tories will benefit from boundary changes.
Instead, it is that they will gain way less than in the not-so-distant past.
Didn't the mid-90s boundary reforms help Labour rather than the Tories?
From memory because Mandelson helped organise and ensure contributions to the Commission to help (by UK not US standards) gerrymander the seats to Labour's advantage.
I think in Scotland now we have a trade deal with the EU the chances of an SNP majority at Holyrood next year are much less than if there had been No Deal. The SNP vote should fall to their 45% hardcore and given the SNP got 46.5% in 2016 they could even lose seats.
In the local elections given the Tories were 11% ahead of Labour in the 2017 county council elections the Tories will likely lose some county councillors to Labour even if they stay ahead and Labour should hold the London Mayoralty and Assembly comfortably.
The District elections are likely to be relatively better for the Tories as Labour were 1% ahead already when they were last up in 2016. In Wales the Tories may also gain seats from Labour and Abolish the Assembly will likely enter the Senedd for the first time
What passes for a trade deal. Everone from the bankers to the farmers to the fisherpersons is unhappy. Three crucial Unionist vote categories in Scotland.
There are far fewer bankers in Scotland than in London and they are mainly concentrated in Edinburgh where the LDs and Labour are the main challengers to the SNP in more seats than the Tories anyway.
Farmers and fishermen combined make up less than 1% of Scottish voters, the latter are concentrated in Banff and Buchan which is already SNP at Holyrood and not even in the top 10 Conservative target seats. If they want a harder deal they will vote for Farage and UKIP anyway not SNP.
The vast majority of Scots especially the 55% Unionist majority will be pleased No Deal has been avoided and will not take kindly to Sturgeon both voting against the Deal and continuing to push for indyref2 rather than focusing on domestic politics and the pandemic. She is setting herself up for a May 2017 style fall, if Sturgeon fails to get a thumping SNP majority next May she faces humiliation and SNP civil war
You love a bit of thumping, eh? I notice you've gone a bit quiet on the old tactical voting stuff. It was always a bit weird that someone whose MO was telling people who didn't vote Tory to eff off was suggesting tp people that normally voted SCon/SLab/SLD that they should vote for another party.
If the diehard Remain vote next year in Scotland splits between the SNP, Labour, the Greens and LDs, the Tories could pick up Leavers from all of them, they would have the 38% of Leave voting Scots all to themselves and still have some Remain anti indyref2 voters where they are the main challengers to the SNP.
You do know, Labour support Brexit, officially?
SLab don't, hence the only Westminster SLab MP will vote against the Deal
The SNP, SLab, the LDs and Greens all now oppose the Brexit Deal, only the Scottish Conservatives firmly in favour and SCons clearly now the only choice for the 38% of Scots who voted Leave
Tory MPs finally losing patience with Williamson and the DfE. Their email inboxes must be red hot with complaints from parents - even the Jezza Vine phone in on Radio 2 was struggling to find anyone demanding schools be kept open.
Note that the government has never posted any detail of the numbers of teacher infections and deaths - despite being thus being repeatedly requested by teachers’ representatives.
Which suggests to me the the insistence that “schools are completely safe” is, if not an absolute lie, then one of those statements politicians don’t care if it’s true or not.
My University did for our staff - most we ever got to was 4 positive cases in a week, and that included 2 who had gone on a dirty weekend to Cornwall.
"Dirty weekend to Cornwall" - was this part of HMG's valiant efforts to save the hospitality sector?
Really enjoying this prediction series - Alastair's effort seems very plausible to me.
I can't agree though that Labour are dangerous and incompetent.
Alastair rightly picks out March, Sept and Dec as the moments when Boris messed up. In March Starmer wasn't saying much (but he was fighting a leadership campaign to be fair).
As soon as he heard the scientific advice for September, he called for action and broke with the govt. And in December he was ahead of the curve and calling for action.
The action he called for in September was proven to be ineffective in Wales though
He's generally taken the position of being a shade stricter than the government, which is great politics.
Mr Meeks did not call for a short circuit break followed by a "fill your boots Wales, party on down" release from lockdown.
The fire break failed, and it did fail,. because it was managed badly. Had the fire break been followed by Johnson's excellent tier system it might have worked.
Perhaps but the Tier system was only what it was because the Tier system had already been tried and failed in October. So it is going around in circles to get to the same point.
It's a circle too far for me.
I don't have the faintest idea what your post means.
Surely this must be the LOWEST such gain for Conservatives from constituency boundary changes in a LONG time?
Since WW2 (in some places even before then) inner cities have been losing population, in contrast to population gains in suburbs and exurbs. Which has resulted in regular losses in safe (or at least safe-ish) for Labour, matched by regular gains for Conservatives.
Indeed, most of the political jockeying by the major UK parties - in and out of office - over seats & boundaries and their reallocation and adjustment, has been a direct reflection of this dynamic. Which Tories have tried to hasten, and Labour to delay, for obvious reasons. When push comes to shove, both (and other) parties have sought to gain further advantage - or shield themselves from the blow - via arguments & evidence in their favor before various UK boundary commissions.
BUT this time, the traditional demographic pattern has shifted. Why? Because while the burbs have continued to grow, this has NOT been at as fast a rate as previously, largely due to urban redevelopment, in particular increased housing and demand for more in the cities, by upscale & upwardly-mobile young & young-ish professionals and the like.
Thus the news is NOT that Tories will benefit from boundary changes.
Instead, it is that they will gain way less than in the not-so-distant past.
Didn't the mid-90s boundary reforms help Labour rather than the Tories?
From memory because Mandelson helped organise and ensure contributions to the Commission to help (by UK not US standards) gerrymander the seats to Labour's advantage.
Nope.
Indeed, I remember an Economist article from 1992 saying that if they Labour Party couldn't win then, then they certainly wouldn't be able to after the boundary changes were implemented.
Really enjoying this prediction series - Alastair's effort seems very plausible to me.
I can't agree though that Labour are dangerous and incompetent.
Alastair rightly picks out March, Sept and Dec as the moments when Boris messed up. In March Starmer wasn't saying much (but he was fighting a leadership campaign to be fair).
As soon as he heard the scientific advice for September, he called for action and broke with the govt. And in December he was ahead of the curve and calling for action.
The action he called for in September was proven to be ineffective in Wales though
He's generally taken the position of being a shade stricter than the government, which is great politics.
Mr Meeks did not call for a short circuit break followed by a "fill your boots Wales, party on down" release from lockdown.
The fire break failed, and it did fail,. because it was managed badly. Had the fire break been followed by Johnson's excellent tier system it might have worked.
Perhaps but the Tier system was only what it was because the Tier system had already been tried and failed in October. So it is going around in circles to get to the same point.
It's a circle too far for me.
I don't have the faintest idea what your post means.
In October while Wales was implementing the firebreak Boris implemented the Tier system in England.
Wales came out of firebreak and went into "normal" restrictions because they hadn't learnt any lessons.
England tried the original Tiers, realised they did not work to contain Covid afterall, had the November lockdown, then came out of November lockdown with newer, stricter Tiers and almost all of the country in a stricter Tier from before.
Had England had the firebreak first before trialling Tiers then no lessons would have been learnt because they wouldn't have been operated. So the country would have come out of the firebreak into the October Tier system (looser T2 and T3 restrictions, most of the nation in T1) rather than the stricter November Tiers (all the nation virtually T2+, T2 and T3 tighter than before).
I think in Scotland now we have a trade deal with the EU the chances of an SNP majority at Holyrood next year are much less than if there had been No Deal. The SNP vote should fall to their 45% hardcore and given the SNP got 46.5% in 2016 they could even lose seats.
In the local elections given the Tories were 11% ahead of Labour in the 2017 county council elections the Tories will likely lose some county councillors to Labour even if they stay ahead and Labour should hold the London Mayoralty and Assembly comfortably.
The District elections are likely to be relatively better for the Tories as Labour were 1% ahead already when they were last up in 2016. In Wales the Tories may also gain seats from Labour and Abolish the Assembly will likely enter the Senedd for the first time
What passes for a trade deal. Everone from the bankers to the farmers to the fisherpersons is unhappy. Three crucial Unionist vote categories in Scotland.
There are far fewer bankers in Scotland than in London and they are mainly concentrated in Edinburgh where the LDs and Labour are the main challengers to the SNP in more seats than the Tories anyway.
Farmers and fishermen combined make up less than 1% of Scottish voters, the latter are concentrated in Banff and Buchan which is already SNP at Holyrood and not even in the top 10 Conservative target seats. If they want a harder deal they will vote for Farage and UKIP anyway not SNP.
The vast majority of Scots especially the 55% Unionist majority will be pleased No Deal has been avoided and will not take kindly to Sturgeon both voting against the Deal and continuing to push for indyref2 rather than focusing on domestic politics and the pandemic. She is setting herself up for a May 2017 style fall, if Sturgeon fails to get a thumping SNP majority next May she faces humiliation and SNP civil war
You love a bit of thumping, eh? I notice you've gone a bit quiet on the old tactical voting stuff. It was always a bit weird that someone whose MO was telling people who didn't vote Tory to eff off was suggesting tp people that normally voted SCon/SLab/SLD that they should vote for another party.
If the diehard Remain vote next year in Scotland splits between the SNP, Labour, the Greens and LDs, the Tories could pick up Leavers from all of them, they would have the 38% of Leave voting Scots all to themselves and still have some Remain anti indyref2 voters where they are the main challengers to the SNP.
You do know, Labour support Brexit, officially?
SLab don't, hence the only Westminster SLab MP will vote against the Deal
The SNP, SLab, the LDs and Greens all now oppose the Brexit Deal, only the Scottish Conservatives firmly in favour and SCons clearly now the only choice for the 38% of Scots who voted Leave
Thanks for your gracious acknowledgment of me helpfully keeping you up to scratch you about Scotpol.
I've been watching Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy on Britbox. I've been aware it's a classic and seen bits, but never actually watched the series start to finish. Peerless understated performances from the leads. It felt a real window on that world.
I'm now watching a 1960's scifi drama called Timeslip, about some kids that slip back in time to WW2. Special effects are rudimentary to say the very least, even for the era where such things were pretty much 'trick photography', but it's quite fun. Not sure if I'll see it through.
I absolutely adore the scene where Smiley is questioning Heydon in a mumbly kind of way, cleaning his glasses with his tie and then, as he gets to the key question he puts them on and suddenly Heydon is in the sharpest focus. It was a brilliant piece of direction and cinematography that I first saw a long, long time ago and have never forgotten.
But it is glacially slow, to today's audiences' sensibilities.
Tory MPs finally losing patience with Williamson and the DfE. Their email inboxes must be red hot with complaints from parents - even the Jezza Vine phone in on Radio 2 was struggling to find anyone demanding schools be kept open.
Note that the government has never posted any detail of the numbers of teacher infections and deaths - despite being thus being repeatedly requested by teachers’ representatives.
Which suggests to me the the insistence that “schools are completely safe” is, if not an absolute lie, then one of those statements politicians don’t care if it’s true or not.
My University did for our staff - most we ever got to was 4 positive cases in a week, and that included 2 who had gone on a dirty weekend to Cornwall.
"Dirty weekend to Cornwall" - was this part of HMG's valiant efforts to save the hospitality sector?
You would have thought they would have kept to themselves rather than seek out the few Cornish with Covid. Unless it was actually a swingers weekend.
Surely this must be the LOWEST such gain for Conservatives from constituency boundary changes in a LONG time?
Since WW2 (in some places even before then) inner cities have been losing population, in contrast to population gains in suburbs and exurbs. Which has resulted in regular losses in safe (or at least safe-ish) for Labour, matched by regular gains for Conservatives.
Indeed, most of the political jockeying by the major UK parties - in and out of office - over seats & boundaries and their reallocation and adjustment, has been a direct reflection of this dynamic. Which Tories have tried to hasten, and Labour to delay, for obvious reasons. When push comes to shove, both (and other) parties have sought to gain further advantage - or shield themselves from the blow - via arguments & evidence in their favor before various UK boundary commissions.
BUT this time, the traditional demographic pattern has shifted. Why? Because while the burbs have continued to grow, this has NOT been at as fast a rate as previously, largely due to urban redevelopment, in particular increased housing and demand for more in the cities, by upscale & upwardly-mobile young & young-ish professionals and the like.
Thus the news is NOT that Tories will benefit from boundary changes.
Instead, it is that they will gain way less than in the not-so-distant past.
Didn't the mid-90s boundary reforms help Labour rather than the Tories?
From memory because Mandelson helped organise and ensure contributions to the Commission to help (by UK not US standards) gerrymander the seats to Labour's advantage.
Nope.
Indeed, I remember an Economist article from 1992 saying that if they Labour Party couldn't win then, then they certainly wouldn't be able to after the boundary changes were implemented.
That was before rather than after the boundary changes wasn't it?
Pretty sure afterwards the boundary changes were regarded as brilliant campaigning by the Labour Party.
These should have been implemented at least a decade ago. They show the handicap the Conservatives have been under during that time. For example, if they had been implemented even four years ago, Theresa May would not have needed the DUP.....
A line of reasoning which will not reassure people as to the actual need for these reviews to happen periodically.
I'm not reassured that you think it fair that an antiquated electoral set of boundaries should be kept in place to stop the true level of Conservative representation in Parliament.
When did I say that? It's perfectly clear from my comment that I think it important the reviews happen since I refer to the 'actual need' for them, and from other comments that I think they should have happened and been implemented years ago. Stop being so paranoid.
The point was that leading with the perceived benefit to the Conservatives gives succour to the conspiracists who think it is driven by partisan desire and will amount to gerrymandering, when in fact the boundaries are out of date and need amending, and whether that benefits the Conservatives or someone else is immaterial to that so long as the process is fair and impartial, which the Commission will ensure.
It's depressingly common that people assume any critical comment must be an indication of total opposition.
Personally, I think he population boundaries have been drawn too tightly. I would have gone for 7.5% +/-, because (a) that would still be massively better than current +/- 60% and (b) it would have enabled us to keep historic entities intact as much as possible. I hate the idea of seats like "Bedford and the Northern half of Ampthill", and the more you require really tight population boundaries, the more you end up with geographical entities that are forced.
Tory MPs finally losing patience with Williamson and the DfE. Their email inboxes must be red hot with complaints from parents - even the Jezza Vine phone in on Radio 2 was struggling to find anyone demanding schools be kept open.
Note that the government has never posted any detail of the numbers of teacher infections and deaths - despite being thus being repeatedly requested by teachers’ representatives.
Which suggests to me the the insistence that “schools are completely safe” is, if not an absolute lie, then one of those statements politicians don’t care if it’s true or not.
My University did for our staff - most we ever got to was 4 positive cases in a week, and that included 2 who had gone on a dirty weekend to Cornwall.
"Dirty weekend to Cornwall" - was this part of HMG's valiant efforts to save the hospitality sector?
You would have thought they would have kept to themselves rather than seek out the few Cornish with Covid. Unless it was actually a swingers weekend.
I think the entire South West engages in swinging.
It is the only explanation for why so many people from the South West use the greeting 'Alright my lover'.
Lets wait and see how Christmas numbers pan out. What we can say is Germany is no longer in the premier League of COVID response countries.
I think we've never really been up there. The Premier League was always Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong and - yes - China.
Don't forget Australia and New Zealand.
Correct, that was lazy.
I think you were a bit unfair about Germany. Germany's initial response was very good. Lots of testing, closed the borders, lockdown fairly quickly. Not dissimilar to say Australia.
Then came the summer and it has been a series of missteps, from foreign holidays to diet lockdown.
Perhaps more importantly, maybe much more importantly, we now know British Supercovid has been in Germany since November.
If it is concealed but widespread there that would explain almost everything. Standard lockdowns cannot beat Supercovid.
The report is 'A Case in Hannover' and one in Frankfurt.
What I don't know is whether other countries are doing their PCR testing on the same selection of sequences as the UK. We've had a small stroke of fortune in that one of the three COVID virus strands we test for gives a negative result on PCR. This we can go back and retrospectively map in great detail, even apart from our sequence analysis capabilities, exactly where and when the new variant arose and in what frequency, just from our normal lab testing.
If any country does their own testing against that sequence, they should be able to know exactly the evolution of Supercovid in their country. That it hasn't emerged tells of something, I'm just not sure what.
Lets wait and see how Christmas numbers pan out. What we can say is Germany is no longer in the premier League of COVID response countries.
I think we've never really been up there. The Premier League was always Vietnam, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Hong Kong and - yes - China.
Don't forget Australia and New Zealand.
Correct, that was lazy.
I think you were a bit unfair about Germany. Germany's initial response was very good. Lots of testing, closed the borders, lockdown fairly quickly. Not dissimilar to say Australia.
Then came the summer and it has been a series of missteps, from foreign holidays to diet lockdown.
Perhaps more importantly, maybe much more importantly, we now know British Supercovid has been in Germany since November.
If it is concealed but widespread there that would explain almost everything. Standard lockdowns cannot beat Supercovid.
Comments
Cognitive Behavioral Therapy is very good for this condition, and helping channel that concern for others into less disruptive and more constructive directions.
Not many defenders perform a Cruyff turn in their own six yard box
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3RTi2sufzS4
2. Yes I think so. At least there will not be enough unhappiness to cause Johnson any lost sleep
3. Who knows. I am not inspired by many of the MPs on any of the benches at the moment. We are poorly served by most our elected representatives.
I hope that Penny Mordaunt will be brought back into cabinet with other female candidates
As of now the Tories have been in power for almost 10 years, their third longest period in power after WW2, the fact the pendulum normally swings eventually does not change the fact that if there is no election until 2024 whatever happens the Tories will overtake the 13 years they were in power from 1951 to 1964 too
Looking at this:
https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=deu&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usia&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=0&startDate=2020-09-01&values=cases
for much of December, Germany had more cases than the UK. But look at the whoosh in the UK in the runup to Christmas.
Oh my. Help the medics.
https://twitter.com/paulembery/status/1343947301765705729?s=21
Worth noting that such mutual aid has long been part of practice. We took some patients from the NW and Yorkshire earlier in the year in our ICU in Leicester, and get national referrals for ECMO.
It is better these days although it goes through cycles and includes straining rhythmic straining of tendons, clenching and grinding teeth and jaw, breathing irregularities and verbal tics and hesitations. I have lived with it for 40 years now since I was 14 and never had it properly diagnosed and the only thing that might change that is I am starting to see similar in my 13 year old son so it would be nice to know what the cause is and whether anything can be done about it.
I notice you've gone a bit quiet on the old tactical voting stuff. It was always a bit weird that someone whose MO was telling people who didn't vote Tory to eff off was suggesting tp people that normally voted SCon/SLab/SLD that they should vote for another party.
Blair won a majority in 2005 despite 22% voting LD
Both of them should have listened to Starmer and not lifted restrictions as early as they did.
I'm perfectly happy with that. My membership card remains untorn.
*(for those who are not familiar with it, what we have in Scotland is the Episcopalian Church - independent of the C of E and of equal status within the Anglican Communion. It was also a nonconformist church in Scxotland until the abolition of state statusd for the main C of Scotland.)
Some of these tics respond well to botox, and interestingly, even when the bottom has worn off the relief can last.
https://www.cochrane.org/CD003633/MOVEMENT_treatment-botulinum-toxin-type-people-involuntary-posturing-head-or-cervical-dystonia
They've made Richard Burgon the voice of reason.
https://twitter.com/RichardBurgon/status/1343989982407634945
Now children, even you slow ones at the back that smell a bit fishy, what's the lesson for today?
Come on now, you know you can do it, NEVER TRUST A . . . . . ?
Dirty Leeds 4 nil up against West Brom.
Also of the firm view that the Nightingales were a PR driven waste of resource.
We collect this data every day, it's called the attendance register. Most secondary schools admin offices could get figures within a few minutes.
And there is no such thing as SLAB. It's all one Labour Party. Just have a look at the Electoral Commission website.
Then came the summer and it has been a series of missteps, from foreign holidays to diet lockdown.
They have no credibility.
Mallaig is in an SNP seat with the LDs second, Montrose is more based around oil and gas than fishing
The point was that leading with the perceived benefit to the Conservatives gives succour to the conspiracists who think it is driven by partisan desire and will amount to gerrymandering, when in fact the boundaries are out of date and need amending, and whether that benefits the Conservatives or someone else is immaterial to that so long as the process is fair and impartial, which the Commission will ensure.
It's depressingly common that people assume any critical comment must be an indication of total opposition.
I must read the book again now that I know that it really was based on the Kim Philby treachery, the discovery of which brought Le Carre's career in espionage to an end.
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/minibus-full-people-mixed-households-19533933.amp
I don't think they have a good option here.
Personally I think that, when you have no good options, the best thing is to go with your convictions, so that people can say, "I may disagree with him, but at least you know where you stand with him". That, for SKS, would probably be to back the deal as the least worst option for the country.
Haven't read Mr Meeks' views. I didn't read Cyclefree's either. No offence. Just not interested.
I'm seriously *this* close to changing my lifelong opposition to the death penalty.
They'll screw you when you're tryin' to keep your seat.
They'll screw you when you're walkin' on the floor.
They'll screw you when you're walkin' to the door.
But I would not feel so all depressed.
Tories only want what's best.
Not preventing your citizens from doing foreign holidays seems to be the norm in democratic societies, but I guess you could call that a misstep.
Grim case numbers and of course deaths as well. It's reasonable to hope increased vaccination especially of the most vulnerable will temper the latter but the case numbers will continue to remain high for some time even as the virus moves through the population and a small proportion (but a significant number) require hospital treatment and all that flows from it.
I've just been texted by the NHS to remind me (as if I needed it) of how under pressure the emergency services are currently.
Elsewhere, I've been giving the political impact of the Trade Deal vote some thought. Labour has been split on Europe since the beginning of time (it seems) yet it's not forgotten it was Labour votes (led by Roy Jenkins) that helped Heath get the European Communities Act get through the Commons in 1972. Nearly 50 years on and while Johnson won't need Labour votes to get the Deal through, he won't be unhappy to receive them and exposing Labour's divisions while the Conservatives appear superficially united probably doesn't hurt him either.
As for those planning to oppose the Deal, it's exactly the same argument as those proposing a second referendum on any Deal failed to grasp (and indeed those who proposed the original referendum failed to grasp).
In short, there's only one reason to vote for it and many reasons to vote against it.
Yes, sometimes teenagers can become very self conscious of these things, and treatment can help tremendously in lifting their spirits.
He's generally taken the position of being a shade stricter than the government, which is great politics.
Prior to the emergence of Cockney Covid (and even perhaps with it) Wales following the disastrous "2 weeks then it'll be alright Jack" policy was the worst performing nation of all.
Would the plan normally be to move the Covid cases or other ones?
I thought the point of the Nightingales was that they would take marginal patients leaving more space for the critical ones in hospital - but if that doesn't work in this situation then perhaps their usefulness is rather less than intended...
https://twitter.com/rosscolquhoun/status/1343974887656972288?s=20
The fire break failed, and it did fail,. because it was managed badly. Had the fire break been followed by Johnson's excellent tier system it might have worked.
What's your guess for China? More than an order of magnitude, two?
If it is concealed but widespread there that would explain almost everything. Standard lockdowns cannot beat Supercovid.
That said I still think Labour are doing the right thing to vote for the deal. The alternative at this point is "no deal" and the deal is better than that. It's not going to matter though. This is Boris's deal and that's what history will remember.
Since WW2 (in some places even before then) inner cities have been losing population, in contrast to population gains in suburbs and exurbs. Which has resulted in regular losses in safe (or at least safe-ish) for Labour, matched by regular gains for Conservatives.
Indeed, most of the political jockeying by the major UK parties - in and out of office - over seats & boundaries and their reallocation and adjustment, has been a direct reflection of this dynamic. Which Tories have tried to hasten, and Labour to delay, for obvious reasons. When push comes to shove, both (and other) parties have sought to gain further advantage - or shield themselves from the blow - via arguments & evidence in their favor before various UK boundary commissions.
BUT this time, the traditional demographic pattern has shifted. Why? Because while the burbs have continued to grow, this has NOT been at as fast a rate as previously, largely due to urban redevelopment, in particular increased housing and demand for more in the cities, by upscale & upwardly-mobile young & young-ish professionals and the like.
Thus the news is NOT that Tories will benefit from boundary changes.
Instead, it is that they will gain way less than in the not-so-distant past.
From memory because Mandelson helped organise and ensure contributions to the Commission to help (by UK not US standards) gerrymander the seats to Labour's advantage.
There aren't any restrictions are there?
I don't have the faintest idea what your post means.
Indeed, I remember an Economist article from 1992 saying that if they Labour Party couldn't win then, then they certainly wouldn't be able to after the boundary changes were implemented.
Wales came out of firebreak and went into "normal" restrictions because they hadn't learnt any lessons.
England tried the original Tiers, realised they did not work to contain Covid afterall, had the November lockdown, then came out of November lockdown with newer, stricter Tiers and almost all of the country in a stricter Tier from before.
Had England had the firebreak first before trialling Tiers then no lessons would have been learnt because they wouldn't have been operated. So the country would have come out of the firebreak into the October Tier system (looser T2 and T3 restrictions, most of the nation in T1) rather than the stricter November Tiers (all the nation virtually T2+, T2 and T3 tighter than before).
Pretty sure afterwards the boundary changes were regarded as brilliant campaigning by the Labour Party.
It is the only explanation for why so many people from the South West use the greeting 'Alright my lover'.
What I don't know is whether other countries are doing their PCR testing on the same selection of sequences as the UK. We've had a small stroke of fortune in that one of the three COVID virus strands we test for gives a negative result on PCR. This we can go back and retrospectively map in great detail, even apart from our sequence analysis capabilities, exactly where and when the new variant arose and in what frequency, just from our normal lab testing.
If any country does their own testing against that sequence, they should be able to know exactly the evolution of Supercovid in their country. That it hasn't emerged tells of something, I'm just not sure what.
I celebrate with a juicy pear.