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2021: What lies in store from Alastair Meeks – politicalbetting.com
2021: What lies in store from Alastair Meeks – politicalbetting.com
Following in Robert Smithson’s footsteps, it’s time to nail my colours to the mast again. At the end of each year, I like to set out my expectations for the year ahead, not because I’m particularly accurate (I’m not) but because it is useful to see where my expectations went wrong at a later date.
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Worthy of Marina Hyde.
I also agree things will get quite a bit worse generally before it gets any better, and that the locals results will be massively overterpreted. But that is practically being back to normal, so that's ok.
I'm not so much persuaded that the opinion polls won't move much, for two reasons. One, as Alistair points out we've been shielded to a degree from the worst economic impacts, and that will change at some point. Two, it may well be the public is divided between those who think the Tories dangerous and incompetent and those who think Labour dangerous and incompetent, but that too might change, at least in proportion. If one or either starts to be seen merely as incompetent, they would comparitively do better.
discussedrubber stamped it....https://twitter.com/EUCouncilPress/status/1343946334458552321?s=20
https://twitter.com/peterdonaghy/status/1343939562163359746?s=20
https://twitter.com/peterdonaghy/status/1343951547558977537?s=20
We can still beat this. We need Astra Zeneca though
This ties in to a discussion I saw earlier but couldn't comment on at the time.
To provide context, I went and got the ONS figures for covid hospitalisations against age in England for w/e 29 November (which were expressed in numbers per hundred thousand, which wasn't that helpful; I went and got figures for England numbers per age band and multiplied out to get the actual numbers (presumably - it should be close, to within a couple of percent per age band).
I then got the figures for covid deaths in England and Wales for w/e 11 December (latest available) as an approximately accurate lag - it's to provide qualitative comparison of deaths to hospitalisations for each age band, so it doesn't have to be accurate. I couldn't find the deaths for England alone, so I divided by 1.05 to get a decent approximation. Again, this is to provide qualitative comparison rather than exact quantitative comparison, so should be close enough.
Here it is.
It provides a useful guide to where overwhelming hospitals would make deaths spike (on the assumption that people are hospitalised because the medical staff feel there is too great a chance of a negative outcome without medical assistance - and therefore that without medical assistance, the black bar representing deaths could climb towards the height and numbers of the red bar representing hospitalisations).
I would also guess (and it's just a guess) that:
(a) Over 80s do a lot of hanging out with other over 80s
(b) This happens in doors, and therefore
(c) Over 80s have historically been most likely to catch CV19 from another oldie.
THEREFORE...
(d) This is strongly suggestive that vaccinated people are not passing CV19 onto their peers. (I.e., the vaccine does not turn people into "asymptomatic superspreaders".)
How far down the priority list do the vaccinations need to get to be able to relax restrictions without it all blowing up again? I can see the two lighthouses to avoid- one is to let it rip once (say) everyone aged 70+ has been done, the other is to wait until the vaccinated proportion of the population gets R << 1.
Where's the sweet spot? Does anyone know?
(And since this is prediction time, mine is that we will open up a bit too much in the spring, regret it, have a similar trajectory May-September 2021 as 2020, but not need to worry too much next autumn. When the dust settles, the vaccination performance of most large Western countries will be much of a muchness- the UK ending up towards the front of the pack, but not ahead of it.)
Still: remember that about half the hosptalizations are for the over 75s. Assuming AZN is approved, we should get that grouping entirely done by the end of January.
In addition, the numbers would start to contribute towards herd immunity and diminishing spread. Under 10% of the population, but another 10% or so would have acquired immunity (hopefully), so R would be pressured downwards by a factor of about 1.2
By the time we get all over 65s done, that's two thirds of the hospitalisations (allowing for a tripling in the rest, or, which would be better, some overhead even with a doubling), and approaching 30% should be immune. Pushing R down by about 1.4
Taken in turn, following Mr Meeks' prognoses:
1. Yes, January and February are going to be REALLY bad, no one can deny that. But vaccines - esp Astra Zeneca - will make an even bigger and quicker impact than we fondly hope (see the data I posted below)
2. By the end of February, therefore, the worst pressure will be off the NHS, and we will see the first relaxation of restrictions. That's just eight weeks away. It will get steadily better from then on, as a virtuous feedback loop is created: emptier hospitals meaning better care, and so on
3. The economy WILL boom, and it WILL feel like it. The pent up demand for social interaction, travel, fun, sex, parties, pubs, restaurants, love, everything nice, will be like a tidal wave. The Roaring Twenties here we come.
4. Brexit will be much less painful than feared, partly because Covid will provide cover. Business will have gotten used to the new paper work by the time weakening Covid allows us to trade and travel freely. And then we will slowly but agreeably realise that Brexit does provide huge opportunities, which we will exploit. The early UK adoption of the Pfizer vaccine was an example: not strictly EU related but revealing what a nimbler national policy can do
5. Yes, Sturgeon will get her majority in Holyrood, yes she will demand indyref2. Boris will - of course - refuse, for the very good reason that he would quite possibly lose and have to resign. But the consequence will, paradoxically, be worse for the SNP, as they split into warring factions, one side demanding UDI, the other trying the courts (and failing), and the indy urge will dissipate in the ensuing mess (cf Catalonia)
6. The Tories will stay level pegging at least, Boris will enjoy a post-Covid bounce, Starmer will bore everyone to tears
7. By the summer, Britain will be a calmer happier nation: or rather, it will be a nation breathing a Huge Sigh of Relief. There is more pleasure in the cessation of pain, than there is in pure pleasure itself. The UK will feel like this. Like it has come through a terrible, agonising dental procedure. We will walk out of the dental surgery, with a spring in our national stride.
There. That's what keeps me from tying a noose.
Trump to be charged with state crimes, will be subsequently either found not guilty or see charges dropped but not by end of 2021.
Man Utd to trade as favourites for the Premier League at some point in 2021, but not win it, either in 20-21 or 21-22.
Dina Asher Smith to win an Olympic gold in either 100m or 200m.
First year since 2003 when Federer, Nadal and Djokovic don't win at least 2 grand slams between them
A new album, surely. It's been a long time. Failing that, perhaps a return to below-the-line PB rumble tumble. I miss a kindred spirit on "culture war" issues. I don't have many.
Crisp and elegant header as usual from him. I agree with most of it. If anything I think AM underplays how bad the pandemic will get in hospitals in Jan and Feb. I'm hearing predictions of collapse from sources I trust on this matter. Sources whose NHS predictions generally become next week's or next month's headlines.
I disagree on 3 things -
"The boom won't feel like a boom": I sense the opposite. I think it will feel more of a boom than it is.
"Labour are dangerous and incompetent": I find this a largely evidence free assertion rooted in the Corbynite past.
"Europe will be a running sore": I doubt this. At least not in 2021. I think the issue will take a well earned sabbatical.
I suspect this is partly due to people delaying getting tests until after Christmas, but still, just horrendous.
When you think about it, addiction to 'relief' is a funny thing. We want good things, but only after we've suffered adequately to get there. Literature, films, TV programmes all inculcate this lesson. It's not for me. I prefer to feel good now. I mostly feel good, and I rarely deviate from it. I go from good to good, and if this means I don't have the feeling of having crossed a chasm to the promised land any more, that's fine.
On the first. Well. Many, many jobs will be lost. Will be difficult to feel like a boom for those people and their families.
It is still a reminder that you DO NOT WANT THIS if you can possibly avoid it.
I wonder if the fall in over 80s might also be due to them being the most likely to catch Covid whilst in hospital. Once the staff have been vaccinated, there won't be as many unknown cases in the building to spread it round.
What’s remarkable is that the allegedly competent Germans have also made the same mistake.
Minor quibble, the quote is: it’s being so cheerful as keeps me going. Alastair no doubt recoiled at the grammar,
I'm now watching a 1960's scifi drama called Timeslip, about some kids that slip back in time to WW2. Special effects are rudimentary to say the very least, even for the era where such things were pretty much 'trick photography', but it's quite fun. Not sure if I'll see it through.
They swing wildly from optimism to despair and back again
--AS
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/29/uk-defence-secretary-hails-azerbaijans-use-of-drones-in-conflict
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55464564
Today:
Yesterday:
I'm one of these sad people who can't listen to the 'good bits' or stick the music player on shuffle. I have to start at the beginning and go through to the end, or not bother.
I agree with 'Leon' here. One we are unlocked there is going to be a lot of pent up demand for all kinds of things...
Jan: AZ vaccine starts up and we quickly scale beyond 1m vaccinations a week. Tier 4 starts to spread beyond the South (starting with Cumbria, I'm afraid) while Kent and SE start to come under control with few further +++ measures. HMG persist until the very last in trying to enforce onsite schooling and then cede minimally to the inevitable, by the end of the month mass testing in schools is in chaos with demand outstripping supply and the term collapses. Deaths are dropping sharply by the end of January, but the NHS is still having to cope with massive hospitalisations and is breaking in places.
Feb: As immunisation moves younger, the herd immunity the vaccines have been found to provide turns the tide. Strict restrictions, an extended half term break, and vaccination mean hospitalisations and then cases start dropping by 50% or more week on week. For all the fuss of the UK getting in a couple of weeks early on vaccination, the pattern is repeated across Europe and US at a similar rate, though the US and UK fall slightly faster from a higher base.
Mar: Tiers start to ease and schools trickle back to in person teaching without any impact on the fall in cases to below 10/100k by month end. By the end of the month a mix of Tier 3 and Tier 2 is in operation and pressure is on from backbenches for further easing, resulting in
Apr: An Easter amnesty is called for 6 days, goes ahead and only blips the downward trend marginally. Vaccinations reach the 50-60 cohort and most places go into Tier 1.
May: Worries about the duration of immunity from vaccination means that it is suspended in below 50s, to resume in September, which is controversial, with the shipping of excess stock to developing countries with outbreaks forming an ugly part of the argument. Basic social distancing and mask wearing until 2022 is mooted: as cases drop this too comes under pressure, not least as the business damage and the final ending of furlough etc. come more into focus.
Jul: Summer goes ahead broadly normally, under pressure the requirements for businesses to enforce distancing ease. Smatterings of cases, well below last year's levels cause some panics. The NHS app, which had remained peripheral, is disconnected from test and trace, but is relaunched in pure game form to encourage social distancing and proves modestly popular.
Sept: Cases mount a little, vaccinations resume and some trial boosters are formally rolled into the flu shot programme, covering a monitoring program for new variants. The virus increases quite slowly.
Dec: At winter peak there are around 40 cases per 100k with very modest hospitalisation and death levels amongst the unvaccinated, who are indiscriminately vilified whatever their reasons were. It is stated to be a 'near normal' winter and Christmas goes ahead with little more than the 'new normal' of personal distancing, and minor numerical restrictions in outbreak areas.
The ultranats will detonate at that point.
Too many observers outside Scotland seem to think electoral success will always ensure SNP unity, but that's far from the case. It can't be overstated; the SNP is not a normal political party, it is a vehicle to facilitate Scottish independence. Winning elections is useful only so long as those victories bring indepence closer.
To be fair to Sturgeon (of whom I am personally no fan) she is caught in a steel trap, and knows it. She cannot force a legal referendum, and a wildcat referendum would be boycotted by unionists and be a farce that would not, I believe, impress the average voter one bit. And UDL... let's not look down that dark path.
I don't think the union is safe, but a viable path to indy is, imho, not at all clear.
From case data
From hospital data
--AS
Given the clubs are doing everything for them, they really should be able to avoid covid more being "in work", than left to.their.own devices.
In the local elections given the Tories were 11% ahead of Labour in the 2017 county council elections the Tories will likely lose some county councillors to Labour even if they stay ahead and Labour should hold the London Mayoralty and Assembly comfortably.
The District elections are likely to be relatively better for the Tories as Labour were 1% ahead already when they were last up in 2016. In Wales the Tories may also gain seats from Labour and Abolish the Assembly will likely enter the Senedd for the first time
I had been wondering about such things lately, as while I do peak and trough emotionally speaking, I'm also temperamentally inclined to be satisfied with mild outcomes. There was a bit in the latest series of Criminal on Netflix with one character noting their own lack of ambition, and how admitting to that would be seen as a negative, and I got a similar vibe from some of Born to be Mild: Adventures for the Anxious by the Very British Problems guy.
(Apologies to the non-rail enthusiasts on PB who won't get the joke.)
--AS
You are clueless.
https://twitter.com/bueti/status/1343890164444241923?s=20
And then there's Biden:
https://twitter.com/noahbarkin/status/1343910969685245953?s=20
Your May prediction seems very unlikely to me.
My estimate is that about 17%+ of the over 80s in the UK have had the jab, incidentally.
Farmers and fishermen combined make up less than 1% of Scottish voters, the latter are concentrated in Banff and Buchan which is already SNP at Holyrood and not even in the top 10 Conservative target seats. If they want a harder deal they will vote for Farage and UKIP anyway not SNP.
The vast majority of Scots especially the 55% Unionist majority will be pleased No Deal has been avoided and will not take kindly to Sturgeon both voting against the Deal and continuing to push for indyref2 rather than focusing on domestic politics and the pandemic. She is setting herself up for a May 2017 style fall, if Sturgeon fails to get a thumping SNP majority next May she faces humiliation and SNP civil war
https://twitter.com/SadiaFMD/status/1343525724250984448
That and the fact that vaccinations ought fairly rapidly to provide relief. Much more rapidly if the AZN vaccine is approved.
https://twitter.com/SimonJonesNews/status/1343964355390529536?s=20
The NHS needs to be given every possible help it might ask for right now, to stop it being overwhelmed and maybe contributing to the end of that pattern.
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/1343941797790277635
Then we get No Deal. That is what the Lib Dems are literally voting for. And the SNP. No Deal.
Let the Lib Dems be expunged from history. There is no reason for them to exist any more.