They are such self-indulgent, posturing, adolescent twats. What if there is actually a very big rebellion and the Brexit deal is somehow voted down? It is highly unlikely but not impossible.
Then we get No Deal. That is what the Lib Dems are literally voting for. And the SNP. No Deal.
Let the Lib Dems be expunged from history. There is no reason for them to exist any more.
People in the south outside London need someone to vote for other than the Tories.
That's excellent news for the UK, as the EU has ordered 300 million AZN doses. With a bit of luck, rather than AZN stockpiling doses for the EU, they'll be able to let us have them at an accelerated pace.
They are such self-indulgent, posturing, adolescent twats. What if there is actually a very big rebellion and the Brexit deal is somehow voted down? It is highly unlikely but not impossible.
Then we get No Deal. That is what the Lib Dems are literally voting for. And the SNP. No Deal.
Let the Lib Dems be expunged from history. There is no reason for them to exist any more.
People in the south outside London need someone to vote for other than the Tories.
I don't want to tempt fate, and the situation in many hospitals is clearly very serious, but as I wondered last week, the death rate still seems strikingly lower relative to the huge number of cases we've had compared to the spring. We have had plenty of time for the lag to be factored in already, considering cases exploded a month ago. I very much hope this may continue.
Hope being that the mutant variant is a milder disease?
The evidence does appear to be leading in that direction...
I don't want to tempt fate, and the situation in many hospitals is clearly very serious, but as I wondered last week, the death rate still seems strikingly lower relative to the huge number of cases we've had compared to the spring. We have had plenty of time for the lag to be factored in already, considering cases exploded a month ago. I very much hope this may continue.
Hope being that the mutant variant is a milder disease?
The evidence does appear to be leading in that direction. We had anecodates here of whole families having the new strain assymptomatically. We have the 'trueism' that as most viruses mutate to become more transmissable, they also get less deadly. So far, deaths do not (seem) to be tracking in line with cases as they once did.
Would be welcome news. But computer (Nigel) says no.
Sadly, this is why regional tiers don't work. If it were me, I'd go for nationwide tier 4 tomorrow.
We will get something very close. Places that were doing OK - eg Cornwall - are now spiralling up. Nowhere in England deserves to be anywhere other than Tier 3 minimum. And to make it easy and understandable, the rationale is: stick everyone in Tier4 (or even 5) so we all know exactly where we stand.
They are such self-indulgent, posturing, adolescent twats. What if there is actually a very big rebellion and the Brexit deal is somehow voted down? It is highly unlikely but not impossible.
Then we get No Deal. That is what the Lib Dems are literally voting for. And the SNP. No Deal.
Let the Lib Dems be expunged from history. There is no reason for them to exist any more.
People in the south outside London need someone to vote for other than the Tories.
The Greens
More red than the reds? I can't see that catching on en masse in the Shires.
I know many thought we'd not sign a deal with the EU in time, or brand new deals with others, but I don't recall as many peopel thinking we'd not be able to get any deals done if they were 'just' rollover deals.
They are such self-indulgent, posturing, adolescent twats. What if there is actually a very big rebellion and the Brexit deal is somehow voted down? It is highly unlikely but not impossible.
Then we get No Deal. That is what the Lib Dems are literally voting for. And the SNP. No Deal.
Let the Lib Dems be expunged from history. There is no reason for them to exist any more.
People in the south outside London need someone to vote for other than the Tories.
The Greens
More red than the reds? I can't see that catching on en masse in the Shires.
Most Lib Dem voters I know are already very Green (in spirit if not voting habit). Climate change and the environment are probably their biggest concerns (esp now that Brexit is "done"). Shifting from LD to Green would be a short hop for them.
I'll start my 2021 predictions with a detailed set on COVID:
Jan: AZ vaccine starts up and we quickly scale beyond 1m vaccinations a week. Tier 4 starts to spread beyond the South (starting with Cumbria, I'm afraid) while Kent and SE start to come under control with few further +++ measures. HMG persist until the very last in trying to enforce onsite schooling and then cede minimally to the inevitable, by the end of the month mass testing in schools is in chaos with demand outstripping supply and the term collapses. Deaths are dropping sharply by the end of January, but the NHS is still having to cope with massive hospitalisations and is breaking in places.
Feb: As immunisation moves younger, the herd immunity the vaccines have been found to provide turns the tide. Strict restrictions, an extended half term break, and vaccination mean hospitalisations and then cases start dropping by 50% or more week on week. For all the fuss of the UK getting in a couple of weeks early on vaccination, the pattern is repeated across Europe and US at a similar rate, though the US and UK fall slightly faster from a higher base.
Mar: Tiers start to ease and schools trickle back to in person teaching without any impact on the fall in cases to below 10/100k by month end. By the end of the month a mix of Tier 3 and Tier 2 is in operation and pressure is on from backbenches for further easing, resulting in
Apr: An Easter amnesty is called for 6 days, goes ahead and only blips the downward trend marginally. Vaccinations reach the 50-60 cohort and most places go into Tier 1.
May: Worries about the duration of immunity from vaccination means that it is suspended in below 50s, to resume in September, which is controversial, with the shipping of excess stock to developing countries with outbreaks forming an ugly part of the argument. Basic social distancing and mask wearing until 2022 is mooted: as cases drop this too comes under pressure, not least as the business damage and the final ending of furlough etc. come more into focus.
Jul: Summer goes ahead broadly normally, under pressure the requirements for businesses to enforce distancing ease. Smatterings of cases, well below last year's levels cause some panics. The NHS app, which had remained peripheral, is disconnected from test and trace, but is relaunched in pure game form to encourage social distancing and proves modestly popular.
Sept: Cases mount a little, vaccinations resume and some trial boosters are formally rolled into the flu shot programme, covering a monitoring program for new variants. The virus increases quite slowly.
Dec: At winter peak there are around 40 cases per 100k with very modest hospitalisation and death levels amongst the unvaccinated, who are indiscriminately vilified whatever their reasons were. It is stated to be a 'near normal' winter and Christmas goes ahead with little more than the 'new normal' of personal distancing, and minor numerical restrictions in outbreak areas.
I hope you’re right about the AZN vaccine. I think it will be approved, too, but I’m far from certain in that. Your May prediction seems very unlikely to me.
The most depressing part of this prediction set is the idea that NEXT Christmas we will still be doing social distancing. God, please, no. That would mean TWO YEARS of plague. FFS
Absolutely critical that Oxford AZ is approved imminently or indeed it will be a very hard slog through 2021.
If Covid lasts TWO YEARS in the West I will just bloody emigrate. If we are allowed.
Sadly, this is why regional tiers don't work. If it were me, I'd go for nationwide tier 4 tomorrow.
Might as well - he can sell it as one last haul, and by doing it tomorrow or Sunday can avoid implementing a lockdown in 2021 completely, if he is lucky, so restrictions will only be relaxed in 2021.
I'll start my 2021 predictions with a detailed set on COVID:
Jan: AZ vaccine starts up and we quickly scale beyond 1m vaccinations a week. Tier 4 starts to spread beyond the South (starting with Cumbria, I'm afraid) while Kent and SE start to come under control with few further +++ measures. HMG persist until the very last in trying to enforce onsite schooling and then cede minimally to the inevitable, by the end of the month mass testing in schools is in chaos with demand outstripping supply and the term collapses. Deaths are dropping sharply by the end of January, but the NHS is still having to cope with massive hospitalisations and is breaking in places.
Feb: As immunisation moves younger, the herd immunity the vaccines have been found to provide turns the tide. Strict restrictions, an extended half term break, and vaccination mean hospitalisations and then cases start dropping by 50% or more week on week. For all the fuss of the UK getting in a couple of weeks early on vaccination, the pattern is repeated across Europe and US at a similar rate, though the US and UK fall slightly faster from a higher base.
Mar: Tiers start to ease and schools trickle back to in person teaching without any impact on the fall in cases to below 10/100k by month end. By the end of the month a mix of Tier 3 and Tier 2 is in operation and pressure is on from backbenches for further easing, resulting in
Apr: An Easter amnesty is called for 6 days, goes ahead and only blips the downward trend marginally. Vaccinations reach the 50-60 cohort and most places go into Tier 1.
May: Worries about the duration of immunity from vaccination means that it is suspended in below 50s, to resume in September, which is controversial, with the shipping of excess stock to developing countries with outbreaks forming an ugly part of the argument. Basic social distancing and mask wearing until 2022 is mooted: as cases drop this too comes under pressure, not least as the business damage and the final ending of furlough etc. come more into focus.
Jul: Summer goes ahead broadly normally, under pressure the requirements for businesses to enforce distancing ease. Smatterings of cases, well below last year's levels cause some panics. The NHS app, which had remained peripheral, is disconnected from test and trace, but is relaunched in pure game form to encourage social distancing and proves modestly popular.
Sept: Cases mount a little, vaccinations resume and some trial boosters are formally rolled into the flu shot programme, covering a monitoring program for new variants. The virus increases quite slowly.
Dec: At winter peak there are around 40 cases per 100k with very modest hospitalisation and death levels amongst the unvaccinated, who are indiscriminately vilified whatever their reasons were. It is stated to be a 'near normal' winter and Christmas goes ahead with little more than the 'new normal' of personal distancing, and minor numerical restrictions in outbreak areas.
I hope you’re right about the AZN vaccine. I think it will be approved, too, but I’m far from certain in that. Your May prediction seems very unlikely to me.
The most depressing part of this prediction set is the idea that NEXT Christmas we will still be doing social distancing. God, please, no. That would mean TWO YEARS of plague. FFS
Absolutely critical that Oxford AZ is approved imminently or indeed it will be a very hard slog through 2021.
If Covid lasts TWO YEARS in the West I will just bloody emigrate. If we are allowed.
I don't want to tempt fate, and the situation in many hospitals is clearly very serious, but as I wondered last week, the death rate still seems strikingly lower relative to the huge number of cases we've had compared to the spring. We have had plenty of time for the lag to be factored in already, considering cases exploded a month ago. I very much hope this may continue.
Hope being that the mutant variant is a milder disease?
The most recent paper (looking at matched populations of those who’d had this and previous variants) suggests it is no more or less deadly, simply more infectious.
That was my assumption unfortunately. Or neutrally, really, since it could have been more severe. I gather this is not normally the way, but it can be.
Shapps seemed to imply on the radio the other day that the new strain was more likely to be asymptomatic but I think he either misspoke or I was over-analyzing.
Tory MPs finally losing patience with Williamson and the DfE. Their email inboxes must be red hot with complaints from parents - even the Jezza Vine phone in on Radio 2 was struggling to find anyone demanding schools be kept open.
Which MP, due to vote against the deal, wrote this in 2010:
"We want to foster co-operation on issues of common interest, not establish international institutions for their own sake. Accordingly we are critical of many of the objectives built in to the EU treaties, of the EU institutions and how they work, and of many particular EU policies. We believe many things done and decided in Europe might better be done by member states or by regions or localities. So while we are members of the EU we will work for its fundamental reform.... why bother with the European Union at all?"
Which MP, due to vote against the deal, wrote this in 2010:
"We want to foster co-operation on issues of common interest, not establish international institutions for their own sake. Accordingly we are critical of many of the objectives built in to the EU treaties, of the EU institutions and how they work, and of many particular EU policies. We believe many things done and decided in Europe might better be done by member states or by regions or localities. So while we are members of the EU we will work for its fundamental reform.... why bother with the European Union at all?"
I don't want to tempt fate, and the situation in many hospitals is clearly very serious, but as I wondered last week, the death rate still seems strikingly lower relative to the huge number of cases we've had compared to the spring. We have had plenty of time for the lag to be factored in already, considering cases exploded a month ago. I very much hope this may continue.
Hope being that the mutant variant is a milder disease?
The most recent paper (looking at matched populations of those who’d had this and previous variants) suggests it is no more or less deadly, simply more infectious.
That was my assumption unfortunately. Or neutrally, really, since it could have been more severe. I gather this is not normally the way, but it can be.
Shapps seemed to imply on the radio the other day that the new strain was more likely to be asymptomatic but I think he either misspoke or I was over-analyzing.
There was no evidence either way a few days back; the most recent study isn’t conclusive, but it’s the best evidence we have. This was an interesting stat which further reinforces the case for greater infectiousness (“wild type” means everything else which isn’t the new variant): https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1343843909403889665
Further info from my son's high school. Emergency training / planning day on Monday (as the government pulled the plug on them reopening after they had closed for Christmas), and then an experiment with online learning and virtual classrooms as opposed to assigned work.
I'll start my 2021 predictions with a detailed set on COVID:
Jan: AZ vaccine starts up and we quickly scale beyond 1m vaccinations a week. Tier 4 starts to spread beyond the South (starting with Cumbria, I'm afraid) while Kent and SE start to come under control with few further +++ measures. HMG persist until the very last in trying to enforce onsite schooling and then cede minimally to the inevitable, by the end of the month mass testing in schools is in chaos with demand outstripping supply and the term collapses. Deaths are dropping sharply by the end of January, but the NHS is still having to cope with massive hospitalisations and is breaking in places.
Feb: As immunisation moves younger, the herd immunity the vaccines have been found to provide turns the tide. Strict restrictions, an extended half term break, and vaccination mean hospitalisations and then cases start dropping by 50% or more week on week. For all the fuss of the UK getting in a couple of weeks early on vaccination, the pattern is repeated across Europe and US at a similar rate, though the US and UK fall slightly faster from a higher base.
Mar: Tiers start to ease and schools trickle back to in person teaching without any impact on the fall in cases to below 10/100k by month end. By the end of the month a mix of Tier 3 and Tier 2 is in operation and pressure is on from backbenches for further easing, resulting in
Apr: An Easter amnesty is called for 6 days, goes ahead and only blips the downward trend marginally. Vaccinations reach the 50-60 cohort and most places go into Tier 1.
May: Worries about the duration of immunity from vaccination means that it is suspended in below 50s, to resume in September, which is controversial, with the shipping of excess stock to developing countries with outbreaks forming an ugly part of the argument. Basic social distancing and mask wearing until 2022 is mooted: as cases drop this too comes under pressure, not least as the business damage and the final ending of furlough etc. come more into focus.
Jul: Summer goes ahead broadly normally, under pressure the requirements for businesses to enforce distancing ease. Smatterings of cases, well below last year's levels cause some panics. The NHS app, which had remained peripheral, is disconnected from test and trace, but is relaunched in pure game form to encourage social distancing and proves modestly popular.
Sept: Cases mount a little, vaccinations resume and some trial boosters are formally rolled into the flu shot programme, covering a monitoring program for new variants. The virus increases quite slowly.
Dec: At winter peak there are around 40 cases per 100k with very modest hospitalisation and death levels amongst the unvaccinated, who are indiscriminately vilified whatever their reasons were. It is stated to be a 'near normal' winter and Christmas goes ahead with little more than the 'new normal' of personal distancing, and minor numerical restrictions in outbreak areas.
I hope you’re right about the AZN vaccine. I think it will be approved, too, but I’m far from certain in that. Your May prediction seems very unlikely to me.
The most depressing part of this prediction set is the idea that NEXT Christmas we will still be doing social distancing. God, please, no. That would mean TWO YEARS of plague. FFS
Absolutely critical that Oxford AZ is approved imminently or indeed it will be a very hard slog through 2021.
If Covid lasts TWO YEARS in the West I will just bloody emigrate. If we are allowed.
"Since the over-80s are the most vulnerable, it will not take long before the mortality statistics – if not cases and hospitalisations – start coming down."
This ties in to a discussion I saw earlier but couldn't comment on at the time.
To provide context, I went and got the ONS figures for covid hospitalisations against age in England for w/e 29 November (which were expressed in numbers per hundred thousand, which wasn't that helpful; I went and got figures for England numbers per age band and multiplied out to get the actual numbers (presumably - it should be close, to within a couple of percent per age band).
I then got the figures for covid deaths in England and Wales for w/e 11 December (latest available) as an approximately accurate lag - it's to provide qualitative comparison of deaths to hospitalisations for each age band, so it doesn't have to be accurate. I couldn't find the deaths for England alone, so I divided by 1.05 to get a decent approximation. Again, this is to provide qualitative comparison rather than exact quantitative comparison, so should be close enough.
Here it is.
It provides a useful guide to where overwhelming hospitals would make deaths spike (on the assumption that people are hospitalised because the medical staff feel there is too great a chance of a negative outcome without medical assistance - and therefore that without medical assistance, the black bar representing deaths could climb towards the height and numbers of the red bar representing hospitalisations).
That is an important reminder of how serious the disease can be for younger people, and that - left to run amok - it can easily utterly swamp healthcare systems.
Still: remember that about half the hosptalizations are for the over 75s. Assuming AZN is approved, we should get that grouping entirely done by the end of January.
That's a slightly misleading graph - it would have been better to keep consistent age spans.
It is still a reminder that you DO NOT WANT THIS if you can possibly avoid it.
I wonder if the fall in over 80s might also be due to them being the most likely to catch Covid whilst in hospital. Once the staff have been vaccinated, there won't be as many unknown cases in the building to spread it round.
I’d have preferred to give consistent age spans, but the data on hospitalisations followed exactly those spans. The data on deaths was more granular, so I could have given more detail on those, but needed to make them comparable.
Which MP, due to vote against the deal, wrote this in 2010:
"We want to foster co-operation on issues of common interest, not establish international institutions for their own sake. Accordingly we are critical of many of the objectives built in to the EU treaties, of the EU institutions and how they work, and of many particular EU policies. We believe many things done and decided in Europe might better be done by member states or by regions or localities. So while we are members of the EU we will work for its fundamental reform.... why bother with the European Union at all?"
Caroline Lucas.
It is. Indeed their stance 2001 to 2019 could be a whole thread! Although note sure Lucas was involved in that first one (although she is featured).
I don't want to tempt fate, and the situation in many hospitals is clearly very serious, but as I wondered last week, the death rate still seems strikingly lower relative to the huge number of cases we've had compared to the spring. We have had plenty of time for the lag to be factored in already, considering cases exploded a month ago. I very much hope this may continue.
Hope being that the mutant variant is a milder disease?
The most recent paper (looking at matched populations of those who’d had this and previous variants) suggests it is no more or less deadly, simply more infectious.
That was my assumption unfortunately. Or neutrally, really, since it could have been more severe. I gather this is not normally the way, but it can be.
Shapps seemed to imply on the radio the other day that the new strain was more likely to be asymptomatic but I think he either misspoke or I was over-analyzing.
There was no evidence either way a few days back; the most recent study isn’t conclusive, but it’s the best evidence we have. This was an interesting stat which further reinforces the case for greater infectiousness: https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1343843909403889665
The interesting signs would be the reports, like those I heard from the senior intensivist on Today, of many more people admitted to hospital apparently surviving ; the fact that deaths still do not seem to be tracking the figures in the same pattern as before ; and the possibly separate, vaccine-related graphs of the decline in the highest age-groups. All this should become clear pretty shortly, I think.
'The UK government had also negotiated increases in the quotas requested by Scottish ministers over the five and a half year adjustment period which ends in 2025, including blue whiting, North Sea Angler fish fish, megrim and west of Scotland saithe'
"Mike Park, the chief executive of the Scottish White Fish Producers Association, said his members were “deeply aggrieved” about the immediate future. It was far from clear whether fleets would benefit greatly once the transition period was over.
“The issue of sovereignty and our future ability to negotiate additional shares after the five-and-a-half-year window would seem clouded by so much complexity that it is difficult at this time to see how the UK government can use its newly recovered sovereignty to improve the situation of my members,” he said."
Perhaps the government could send out someone trusted and knowledgeable like Robert Jenrick to do a head to head interview with these fishing folk and tell them how they are wrong about their own industry. They can't push back more on their fuckup other than by using the HYUFD stratagy - deny, sneer, attack.
I've been watching Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy on Britbox. I've been aware it's a classic and seen bits, but never actually watched the series start to finish. Peerless understated performances from the leads. It felt a real window on that world.
I'm now watching a 1960's scifi drama called Timeslip, about some kids that slip back in time to WW2. Special effects are rudimentary to say the very least, even for the era where such things were pretty much 'trick photography', but it's quite fun. Not sure if I'll see it through.
I absolutely adore the scene where Smiley is questioning Heydon in a mumbly kind of way, cleaning his glasses with his tie and then, as he gets to the key question he puts them on and suddenly Heydon is in the sharpest focus. It was a brilliant piece of direction and cinematography that I first saw a long, long time ago and have never forgotten.
Which MP, due to vote against the deal, wrote this in 2010:
"We want to foster co-operation on issues of common interest, not establish international institutions for their own sake. Accordingly we are critical of many of the objectives built in to the EU treaties, of the EU institutions and how they work, and of many particular EU policies. We believe many things done and decided in Europe might better be done by member states or by regions or localities. So while we are members of the EU we will work for its fundamental reform.... why bother with the European Union at all?"
Caroline Lucas.
It is. Indeed their stance 2001 to 2019 could be a whole thread! Although note sure Lucas was involved in that first one (although she is featured).
I'm writing a series of threads on Brexit, there's been quite a few past positions that look quite interesting now.
I'm so old I remember when Ed Davey was suspended from the Commons after protesting against the Speaker's decision not to allow a vote on a referendum on European Union membership.
I'll start my 2021 predictions with a detailed set on COVID:
Jan: AZ vaccine starts up and we quickly scale beyond 1m vaccinations a week. Tier 4 starts to spread beyond the South (starting with Cumbria, I'm afraid) while Kent and SE start to come under control with few further +++ measures. HMG persist until the very last in trying to enforce onsite schooling and then cede minimally to the inevitable, by the end of the month mass testing in schools is in chaos with demand outstripping supply and the term collapses. Deaths are dropping sharply by the end of January, but the NHS is still having to cope with massive hospitalisations and is breaking in places.
Feb: As immunisation moves younger, the herd immunity the vaccines have been found to provide turns the tide. Strict restrictions, an extended half term break, and vaccination mean hospitalisations and then cases start dropping by 50% or more week on week. For all the fuss of the UK getting in a couple of weeks early on vaccination, the pattern is repeated across Europe and US at a similar rate, though the US and UK fall slightly faster from a higher base.
Mar: Tiers start to ease and schools trickle back to in person teaching without any impact on the fall in cases to below 10/100k by month end. By the end of the month a mix of Tier 3 and Tier 2 is in operation and pressure is on from backbenches for further easing, resulting in
Apr: An Easter amnesty is called for 6 days, goes ahead and only blips the downward trend marginally. Vaccinations reach the 50-60 cohort and most places go into Tier 1.
May: Worries about the duration of immunity from vaccination means that it is suspended in below 50s, to resume in September, which is controversial, with the shipping of excess stock to developing countries with outbreaks forming an ugly part of the argument. Basic social distancing and mask wearing until 2022 is mooted: as cases drop this too comes under pressure, not least as the business damage and the final ending of furlough etc. come more into focus.
Jul: Summer goes ahead broadly normally, under pressure the requirements for businesses to enforce distancing ease. Smatterings of cases, well below last year's levels cause some panics. The NHS app, which had remained peripheral, is disconnected from test and trace, but is relaunched in pure game form to encourage social distancing and proves modestly popular.
Sept: Cases mount a little, vaccinations resume and some trial boosters are formally rolled into the flu shot programme, covering a monitoring program for new variants. The virus increases quite slowly.
Dec: At winter peak there are around 40 cases per 100k with very modest hospitalisation and death levels amongst the unvaccinated, who are indiscriminately vilified whatever their reasons were. It is stated to be a 'near normal' winter and Christmas goes ahead with little more than the 'new normal' of personal distancing, and minor numerical restrictions in outbreak areas.
I hope you’re right about the AZN vaccine. I think it will be approved, too, but I’m far from certain in that. Your May prediction seems very unlikely to me.
The most depressing part of this prediction set is the idea that NEXT Christmas we will still be doing social distancing. God, please, no. That would mean TWO YEARS of plague. FFS
Absolutely critical that Oxford AZ is approved imminently or indeed it will be a very hard slog through 2021.
If Covid lasts TWO YEARS in the West I will just bloody emigrate. If we are allowed.
24 months is a reasonable estimate. September 2021 is really key, but it'll be Jan/Feb 2022 when/if we know its really over. Or, indeed, not.
I actually think we'll see a notable impact on certain national statistics by mid-Jan and I think the weather will come to our aid, again, by late March.
Tory MPs finally losing patience with Williamson and the DfE. Their email inboxes must be red hot with complaints from parents - even the Jezza Vine phone in on Radio 2 was struggling to find anyone demanding schools be kept open.
Note that the government has never posted any detail of the numbers of teacher infections and deaths - despite being thus being repeatedly requested by teachers’ representatives.
Which suggests to me the the insistence that “schools are completely safe” is, if not an absolute lie, then one of those statements politicians don’t care if it’s true or not.
Tory MPs finally losing patience with Williamson and the DfE. Their email inboxes must be red hot with complaints from parents - even the Jezza Vine phone in on Radio 2 was struggling to find anyone demanding schools be kept open.
Note that the government has never posted any detail of the numbers of teacher infections and deaths - despite being thus being repeatedly requested by teachers’ representatives.
Which suggests to me the the insistence that “schools are completely safe” is, if not an absolute lie, then one of those statements politicians don’t care if it’s true or not.
My University did for our staff - most we ever got to was 4 positive cases in a week, and that included 2 who had gone on a dirty weekend to Cornwall.
They are such self-indulgent, posturing, adolescent twats. What if there is actually a very big rebellion and the Brexit deal is somehow voted down? It is highly unlikely but not impossible.
Then we get No Deal. That is what the Lib Dems are literally voting for. And the SNP. No Deal.
Let the Lib Dems be expunged from history. There is no reason for them to exist any more.
The LDs are now basically nationally an economically centrist party for diehard Remainers in England and Wales and for Unionist diehard Remainers in Scotland, plus for a few more voters who like LD councillors allegedly mending potholes and opposing new housing at local level but who will still vote Tory or Labour at Westminster level
Further info from my son's high school. Emergency training / planning day on Monday (as the government pulled the plug on them reopening after they had closed for Christmas), and then an experiment with online learning and virtual classrooms as opposed to assigned work.
Both of my older daughter's best schoolfriends are in isolation. Indeed one of them is in her second consecutive period of isolation: as soon as she finished the first her Dad was in close contact with Covid and she had to go back in to quarantine.
How can schools function with so much Covid doing this to kids and teachers? It pains me greatly- my daughter needs school - but I fear schools will have to stay shut, probably for the whole of January.
Really enjoying this prediction series - Alastair's effort seems very plausible to me.
I can't agree though that Labour are dangerous and incompetent.
Alastair rightly picks out March, Sept and Dec as the moments when Boris messed up. In March Starmer wasn't saying much (but he was fighting a leadership campaign to be fair).
As soon as he heard the scientific advice for September, he called for action and broke with the govt. And in December he was ahead of the curve and calling for action.
"Since the over-80s are the most vulnerable, it will not take long before the mortality statistics – if not cases and hospitalisations – start coming down."
This ties in to a discussion I saw earlier but couldn't comment on at the time.
To provide context, I went and got the ONS figures for covid hospitalisations against age in England for w/e 29 November (which were expressed in numbers per hundred thousand, which wasn't that helpful; I went and got figures for England numbers per age band and multiplied out to get the actual numbers (presumably - it should be close, to within a couple of percent per age band).
I then got the figures for covid deaths in England and Wales for w/e 11 December (latest available) as an approximately accurate lag - it's to provide qualitative comparison of deaths to hospitalisations for each age band, so it doesn't have to be accurate. I couldn't find the deaths for England alone, so I divided by 1.05 to get a decent approximation. Again, this is to provide qualitative comparison rather than exact quantitative comparison, so should be close enough.
Here it is.
It provides a useful guide to where overwhelming hospitals would make deaths spike (on the assumption that people are hospitalised because the medical staff feel there is too great a chance of a negative outcome without medical assistance - and therefore that without medical assistance, the black bar representing deaths could climb towards the height and numbers of the red bar representing hospitalisations).
That is an important reminder of how serious the disease can be for younger people, and that - left to run amok - it can easily utterly swamp healthcare systems.
Still: remember that about half the hosptalizations are for the over 75s. Assuming AZN is approved, we should get that grouping entirely done by the end of January.
That's a slightly misleading graph - it would have been better to keep consistent age spans.
It is still a reminder that you DO NOT WANT THIS if you can possibly avoid it.
I wonder if the fall in over 80s might also be due to them being the most likely to catch Covid whilst in hospital. Once the staff have been vaccinated, there won't be as many unknown cases in the building to spread it round.
I’d have preferred to give consistent age spans, but the data on hospitalisations followed exactly those spans. The data on deaths was more granular, so I could have given more detail on those, but needed to make them comparable.
OK, thanks - fair enough. It does tell the story perfectly well anyway.
We aren't coming out of lockdowns until a significant proportion of the over 50s have been vaccinated, and not just the over 80s. Fingers crossed that isn't too many weeks away.
Except that both the UK and EU will sign the treaty before the debate starts. It is done. No Deal is gone. The vote simply is about consent.
Na, if either the UK or EU parliaments vote it down it won't be ratified. The agreement is to bridge the gap between provisional acceptance now, and final ratification.
Jesus. We could actually break the world record, next week?
Your burst of optimism didn't last long.
Yes, my bipolarity just peaked, methinks
Common complaint in these parts,
I'd fear that being bipolar is one of those things that many people on the internet are inclined to self diagnose as (not suggesting that is the case with Leon), like Asperger's Syndrome or OCD.
True OCD is a disabling condition. You can start by developing an intense fear of something - say a heart attack - and irrationally even though you are an extremely rational person you decide that stamping your foot 3 times before you leave the house will ward it off. You do the stamp, go out, return safely, and conclude that it worked. You're now on the hook. Every time you go out you have to do it. Then you start adding things. Stop walking every 100 paces and surreptitiously stamp 3 times. Every 50 paces. Every 25. Progress becomes painfully slow. And then it occurs to you that you need routines for the home. Ever more elaborate physical performances, perhaps involving objects, and mental mantras, spoken or unspoken, become compulsory because in your mind you believe, you know, that if you don't do them, and do them exactly right, the Thing you dread will happen. It's absolutely no joke.
Really enjoying this prediction series - Alastair's effort seems very plausible to me.
I can't agree though that Labour are dangerous and incompetent.
Alastair rightly picks out March, Sept and Dec as the moments when Boris messed up. In March Starmer wasn't saying much (but he was fighting a leadership campaign to be fair).
As soon as he heard the scientific advice for September, he called for action and broke with the govt. And in December he was ahead of the curve and calling for action.
Pity about Wales ... maybe SKS should be giving Mark the benefit of his critical thinking and advice rather than Boris?
Because no-one is not going to believe Labour would have done better against COVID, if the one part of the UK they actually control ends up doing worst of all.
This is broadly in line with what I'd predict. I do think we may well see a hicup in the vaccine rollout - at every stage so far, whether through incompetence or it being an impossible job from the standing start they were given by the previous three Tory administrations, something has gone wrong - but it won't be too major and while it may mean we miss Boris' back to normal by Easter deadline, take up and the virus seemingly dying down a bit in summer will mean we're back to more or less normal.
As for a boom, I think we may well have a summer a bit like 2012 - with the Euro finals taking place here, an Olympics, and India here in the cricket, as well as festivals etc returning. Those who were able to save during the pandemic and still have jobs will be keen to make up for lost time and we'll have a boom that briefly feels like it. However, it may come with a nasty sting in the autumn as we realise it's unevenly spread, with many businesses and those they serve not coming back, doesn't catch up to where we were, and Sunak begins to lean towards clawing back the Covid cash. Not least because, as others have said, Brexit adds a slow puncture that stops us getting up to maximum speed - and the promised benefits of divergence won't exist yet, if we diverge much at all pre-2024 when things come up for review, as to not play chicken with tariffs and potential retaliation on services.
Brexit. The debate will change but won't go away. Because there'll be plenty for special interest groups to complain about the detail, and the scrutiny hasn't happened ahead of time. Lots of things will fizzle out as issues, but the odd one will catch fire - and journalists will not want for businesses who've gone under/laid off people due to new bureaucratic restrictions.
It also won't disappear because with the exception of the Labour leadership, no one has an interest in it doing so. Boris and Brexiteers have an interest in championing the deal as brilliant in a way that antagonises those (mainly remainers) who believe he's one of the most despicable, fraudulent politicians post-war Britain has produced. Sturgeon will use every thing that might not be great, as well as Brexiteers own rhetoric about sovereignty being vital, to justify Scottish independence. The Lib Dems will use opposition to carve out a distinctive position and get a megaphone, and the Labour left will use it to bash Starmer.
In the longer term, the dog that will bark, but won't bite in 2021 is younger generations (If you're under 50 you most likely voted remain, if under 30 more likely to have lost income due to Covid) feeling their elders don't just fail to listen to them, but are actively hostile and selfishly malevolent towards them - cutting off opportunities, pricing them out of housing, and then continually whining about them in waging a culture war. The young's revenge on the older Brexiteers won't happen in 2021, but we may start to see the arguments that eventually lead to it.
I've been watching Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy on Britbox. I've been aware it's a classic and seen bits, but never actually watched the series start to finish. Peerless understated performances from the leads. It felt a real window on that world.
I'm now watching a 1960's scifi drama called Timeslip, about some kids that slip back in time to WW2. Special effects are rudimentary to say the very least, even for the era where such things were pretty much 'trick photography', but it's quite fun. Not sure if I'll see it through.
I absolutely adore the scene where Smiley is questioning Heydon in a mumbly kind of way, cleaning his glasses with his tie and then, as he gets to the key question he puts them on and suddenly Heydon is in the sharpest focus. It was a brilliant piece of direction and cinematography that I first saw a long, long time ago and have never forgotten.
But it is glacially slow, to today's audiences' sensibilities.
Jesus. We could actually break the world record, next week?
Your burst of optimism didn't last long.
Yes, my bipolarity just peaked, methinks
Common complaint in these parts,
I'd fear that being bipolar is one of those things that many people on the internet are inclined to self diagnose as (not suggesting that is the case with Leon), like Asperger's Syndrome or OCD.
True OCD is a disabling condition. You can start by developing an intense fear of something - say a heart attack - and irrationally even though you are an extremely rational person you decide that stamping your foot 3 times before you leave the house will ward it off. You do the stamp, go out, return safely, and conclude that it worked. You're now on the hook. Every time you go out you have to do it. Then you start adding things. Stop walking every 100 paces and surreptitiously stamp 3 times. Every 50 paces. Every 25. Progress becomes painfully slow. And then it occurs to you that you need routines for the home. Ever more elaborate physical performances, perhaps involving objects, and mental mantras, spoken or unspoken, become compulsory because in your mind you believe, you know, that if you don't do them, and do them exactly right, the Thing you dread will happen. It's absolutely no joke.
A friend of mine became terrified of his father dying, and developed OCD as a result. He had to check his door was locked/car turned off, 17 times, every day - or his Dad would die. And the rituals got more and more elaborate and consuming until they were doing real damage to his quality of life.
He got therapy and he got quite a lot better, but some tiresome and unsettling rituals remained, until, finally, the start of this year: when his Dad actually died.
I don't want to tempt fate, and the situation in many hospitals is clearly very serious, but as I wondered last week, the death rate still seems strikingly lower relative to the huge number of cases we've had compared to the spring. We have had plenty of time for the lag to be factored in already, considering cases exploded a month ago. I very much hope this may continue.
Hope being that the mutant variant is a milder disease?
The most recent paper (looking at matched populations of those who’d had this and previous variants) suggests it is no more or less deadly, simply more infectious.
That was my assumption unfortunately. Or neutrally, really, since it could have been more severe. I gather this is not normally the way, but it can be.
Shapps seemed to imply on the radio the other day that the new strain was more likely to be asymptomatic but I think he either misspoke or I was over-analyzing.
There was no evidence either way a few days back; the most recent study isn’t conclusive, but it’s the best evidence we have. This was an interesting stat which further reinforces the case for greater infectiousness (“wild type” means everything else which isn’t the new variant): https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1343843909403889665
Thank you. So the "70% more infectious" logo looks about right from that.
Jesus. We could actually break the world record, next week?
Your burst of optimism didn't last long.
Yes, my bipolarity just peaked, methinks
Common complaint in these parts,
I'd fear that being bipolar is one of those things that many people on the internet are inclined to self diagnose as (not suggesting that is the case with Leon), like Asperger's Syndrome or OCD.
True OCD is a disabling condition. You can start by developing an intense fear of something - say a heart attack - and irrationally even though you are an extremely rational person you decide that stamping your foot 3 times before you leave the house will ward it off. You do the stamp, go out, return safely, and conclude that it worked. You're now on the hook. Every time you go out you have to do it. Then you start adding things. Stop walking every 100 paces and surreptitiously stamp 3 times. Every 50 paces. Every 25. Progress becomes painfully slow. And then it occurs to you that you need routines for the home. Ever more elaborate physical performances, perhaps involving objects, and mental mantras, spoken or unspoken, become compulsory because in your mind you believe, you know, that if you don't do them, and do them exactly right, the Thing you dread will happen. It's absolutely no joke.
My son has had quite the battle with OCD around cleanliness - as you say its no joke
I've been watching Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy on Britbox. I've been aware it's a classic and seen bits, but never actually watched the series start to finish. Peerless understated performances from the leads. It felt a real window on that world.
I'm now watching a 1960's scifi drama called Timeslip, about some kids that slip back in time to WW2. Special effects are rudimentary to say the very least, even for the era where such things were pretty much 'trick photography', but it's quite fun. Not sure if I'll see it through.
I absolutely adore the scene where Smiley is questioning Heydon in a mumbly kind of way, cleaning his glasses with his tie and then, as he gets to the key question he puts them on and suddenly Heydon is in the sharpest focus. It was a brilliant piece of direction and cinematography that I first saw a long, long time ago and have never forgotten.
But it is glacially slow, to today's audiences' sensibilities.
I tried it, and couldn't abide it, for that reason. Boringly slow. To me.
Except that both the UK and EU will sign the treaty before the debate starts. It is done. No Deal is gone. The vote simply is about consent.
Na, if either the UK or EU parliaments vote it down it won't be ratified. The agreement is to bridge the gap between provisional acceptance now, and final ratification.
But the deal will pass. In the massively unlikely even that most of the Tory and Labour MPs rebel against their whip and vote no, they will be given a new opportunity shortly afterwards to reconsider.
Tory MPs finally losing patience with Williamson and the DfE. Their email inboxes must be red hot with complaints from parents - even the Jezza Vine phone in on Radio 2 was struggling to find anyone demanding schools be kept open.
Note that the government has never posted any detail of the numbers of teacher infections and deaths - despite being thus being repeatedly requested by teachers’ representatives.
Which suggests to me the the insistence that “schools are completely safe” is, if not an absolute lie, then one of those statements politicians don’t care if it’s true or not.
My University did for our staff - most we ever got to was 4 positive cases in a week, and that included 2 who had gone on a dirty weekend to Cornwall.
Yes, but with respect the contact with students is not remotely comparable with that for school teachers. If keeping schools open is an overriding national priority, which we’re repeatedly assured it is, why is government not collecting and publishing those figures ?
Leave still got 38% even in Scotland in 2016 and with 55% of Scots also voting No to independence in 2014 given the Scottish Tories got just 22% in 2016 as the only Scottish party voting for the Brexit Deal if they unite the Scottish Leave vote behind them they could make significant gains at Holyrood next year on an anti indyref2, pro Brexit ticket
Jesus. We could actually break the world record, next week?
Your burst of optimism didn't last long.
Yes, my bipolarity just peaked, methinks
Common complaint in these parts,
I'd fear that being bipolar is one of those things that many people on the internet are inclined to self diagnose as (not suggesting that is the case with Leon), like Asperger's Syndrome or OCD.
True OCD is a disabling condition. You can start by developing an intense fear of something - say a heart attack - and irrationally even though you are an extremely rational person you decide that stamping your foot 3 times before you leave the house will ward it off. You do the stamp, go out, return safely, and conclude that it worked. You're now on the hook. Every time you go out you have to do it. Then you start adding things. Stop walking every 100 paces and surreptitiously stamp 3 times. Every 50 paces. Every 25. Progress becomes painfully slow. And then it occurs to you that you need routines for the home. Ever more elaborate physical performances, perhaps involving objects, and mental mantras, spoken or unspoken, become compulsory because in your mind you believe, you know, that if you don't do them, and do them exactly right, the Thing you dread will happen. It's absolutely no joke.
Quite so. I wouldn't jump down the throat of someone casually describing themselves as 'a little OCD', but the realities of many conditions is not trivial, at their worst.
They are such self-indulgent, posturing, adolescent twats. What if there is actually a very big rebellion and the Brexit deal is somehow voted down? It is highly unlikely but not impossible.
Then we get No Deal. That is what the Lib Dems are literally voting for. And the SNP. No Deal.
Let the Lib Dems be expunged from history. There is no reason for them to exist any more.
People in the south outside London need someone to vote for other than the Tories.
These should have been implemented at least a decade ago. They show the handicap the Conservatives have been under during that time. For example, if they had been implemented even four years ago, Theresa May would not have needed the DUP.....
These should have been implemented at least a decade ago. They show the handicap the Conservatives have been under during that time. For example, if they had been implemented even four years ago, Theresa May would not have needed the DUP.....
A line of reasoning which will not reassure people as to the actual need for these reviews to happen periodically.
We need to spend January in Tier 4+. Keep the schools off until there is a rapid test plan that is actually executable. Keep the sodding churches etc shut. Before they have to do something even more dramatic
Jesus. We could actually break the world record, next week?
Your burst of optimism didn't last long.
Yes, my bipolarity just peaked, methinks
Common complaint in these parts,
I'd fear that being bipolar is one of those things that many people on the internet are inclined to self diagnose as (not suggesting that is the case with Leon), like Asperger's Syndrome or OCD.
True OCD is a disabling condition. You can start by developing an intense fear of something - say a heart attack - and irrationally even though you are an extremely rational person you decide that stamping your foot 3 times before you leave the house will ward it off. You do the stamp, go out, return safely, and conclude that it worked. You're now on the hook. Every time you go out you have to do it. Then you start adding things. Stop walking every 100 paces and surreptitiously stamp 3 times. Every 50 paces. Every 25. Progress becomes painfully slow. And then it occurs to you that you need routines for the home. Ever more elaborate physical performances, perhaps involving objects, and mental mantras, spoken or unspoken, become compulsory because in your mind you believe, you know, that if you don't do them, and do them exactly right, the Thing you dread will happen. It's absolutely no joke.
A friend of mine became terrified of his father dying, and developed OCD as a result. He had to check his door was locked/car turned off, 17 times, every day - or his Dad would die. And the rituals got more and more elaborate and consuming until they were doing real damage to his quality of life.
He got therapy and he got quite a lot better, but some tiresome and unsettling rituals remained, until, finally, the start of this year: when his Dad actually died.
They are such self-indulgent, posturing, adolescent twats. What if there is actually a very big rebellion and the Brexit deal is somehow voted down? It is highly unlikely but not impossible.
Then we get No Deal. That is what the Lib Dems are literally voting for. And the SNP. No Deal.
Let the Lib Dems be expunged from history. There is no reason for them to exist any more.
The LDs are now basically nationally an economically centrist party for diehard Remainers in England and Wales and for Unionist diehard Remainers in Scotland, plus for a few more voters who like LD councillors allegedly mending potholes and opposing new housing at local level but who will still vote Tory or Labour at Westminster level
"Die Hard remain" is not a centrist position (nor a Xmas movie). We have left and are not rejoining anytime soon, centrists recognise reality unlike ideologues. Having closer links to the EU than this deal works, but there is a high chance all parties including the Tories will be selling variants of that come 2024.
LDs need re-invention or they will cease to be relevant (relevant at all, before the inevitable put downs that they never were). Green should be their future.
Sadly, this is why regional tiers don't work. If it were me, I'd go for nationwide tier 4 tomorrow.
I agree. I think the localism on this is a net negative. Rather see a clear and simple national distancing regime. The virus is such a speedy gonzales. The only difference between a good place in England and one in the shit is 15 to 20 days. When people in the good places see TV stories on what's happening in the bad ones they are just viewing their own near future.
Isn't that just some ridiculuos propaganda nonsense from the two of you, again?
The HoC and the HoL may rubberstamp the deal on Dec 30th.
The European Parliament has said "We won't be rushed into a vote on this. We won't rubberstamp anything. We insist on proper scrutiny. In the plenum, in all the relevant committees. This takes time. Not a day, not a week, but more than a month. We will vote on the deal in February."
Until then it may be in force provisionally, but if the deal is then rejected, there will be a no-deal situation - and any new deal will then have to be ratified by every single national legislature.
I think in Scotland now we have a trade deal with the EU the chances of an SNP majority at Holyrood next year are much less than if there had been No Deal. The SNP vote should fall to their 45% hardcore and given the SNP got 46.5% in 2016 they could even lose seats.
In the local elections given the Tories were 11% ahead of Labour in the 2017 county council elections the Tories will likely lose some county councillors to Labour even if they stay ahead and Labour should hold the London Mayoralty and Assembly comfortably.
The District elections are likely to be relatively better for the Tories as Labour were 1% ahead already when they were last up in 2016. In Wales the Tories may also gain seats from Labour and Abolish the Assembly will likely enter the Senedd for the first time
What passes for a trade deal. Everone from the bankers to the farmers to the fisherpersons is unhappy. Three crucial Unionist vote categories in Scotland.
There are far fewer bankers in Scotland than in London and they are mainly concentrated in Edinburgh where the LDs and Labour are the main challengers to the SNP in more seats than the Tories anyway.
Farmers and fishermen combined make up less than 1% of Scottish voters, the latter are concentrated in Banff and Buchan which is already SNP at Holyrood and not even in the top 10 Conservative target seats. If they want a harder deal they will vote for Farage and UKIP anyway not SNP.
The vast majority of Scots especially the 55% Unionist majority will be pleased No Deal has been avoided and will not take kindly to Sturgeon both voting against the Deal and continuing to push for indyref2 rather than focusing on domestic politics and the pandemic. She is setting herself up for a May 2017 style fall, if Sturgeon fails to get a thumping SNP majority next May she faces humiliation and SNP civil war
You spent months assuring us all that Tory vistories were nailed on along the coastal strip because of the hordes of fisherpersons, including trying to make out that a self-selected survey of the skippers of larger fishing boats was a reliable survey of the entire workforce of tdhe fishing industry.
OK, this is so fucking bleak I am going to do a set of alternative happy-happy predictions. just to stop myself from slashing my wrists.
Taken in turn, following Mr Meeks' prognoses:
1. Yes, January and February are going to be REALLY bad, no one can deny that. But vaccines - esp Astra Zeneca - will make an even bigger and quicker impact than we fondly hope (see the data I posted below)
2. By the end of February, therefore, the worst pressure will be off the NHS, and we will see the first relaxation of restrictions. That's just eight weeks away. It will get steadily better from then on, as a virtuous feedback loop is created: emptier hospitals meaning better care, and so on
3. The economy WILL boom, and it WILL feel like it. The pent up demand for social interaction, travel, fun, sex, parties, pubs, restaurants, love, everything nice, will be like a tidal wave. The Roaring Twenties here we come.
4. Brexit will be much less painful than feared, partly because Covid will provide cover. Business will have gotten used to the new paper work by the time weakening Covid allows us to trade and travel freely. And then we will slowly but agreeably realise that Brexit does provide huge opportunities, which we will exploit. The early UK adoption of the Pfizer vaccine was an example: not strictly EU related but revealing what a nimbler national policy can do
5. Yes, Sturgeon will get her majority in Holyrood, yes she will demand indyref2. Boris will - of course - refuse, for the very good reason that he would quite possibly lose and have to resign. But the consequence will, paradoxically, be worse for the SNP, as they split into warring factions, one side demanding UDI, the other trying the courts (and failing), and the indy urge will dissipate in the ensuing mess (cf Catalonia)
6. The Tories will stay level pegging at least, Boris will enjoy a post-Covid bounce, Starmer will bore everyone to tears
7. By the summer, Britain will be a calmer happier nation: or rather, it will be a nation breathing a Huge Sigh of Relief. There is more pleasure in the cessation of pain, than there is in pure pleasure itself. The UK will feel like this. Like it has come through a terrible, agonising dental procedure. We will walk out of the dental surgery, with a spring in our national stride.
There. That's what keeps me from tying a noose.
Very good - I quite agree.
When you think about it, addiction to 'relief' is a funny thing. We want good things, but only after we've suffered adequately to get there. Literature, films, TV programmes all inculcate this lesson. It's not for me. I prefer to feel good now. I mostly feel good, and I rarely deviate from it. I go from good to good, and if this means I don't have the feeling of having crossed a chasm to the promised land any more, that's fine.
Interesting. I have always wondered whether my brain chemistry is kind of like depressed people but the other way around. I'm almost always happy and if things go wrong, there is always plan B, or C or D etc. Perhaps I'm missing out by not having troughs to make the peaks more exciting?
To be honest I am the same. My outlook on life might help I suppose which is that whatever happens to me is an event to be experienced and learnt from. Life is all about experiences and how we react to them.
I would also say that I have been incredibly lucky to date in spite of some sticky situations. Finally I am content with my life as it is at this moment and to have regrets about anything would be to demean what I have now.
We only get one shot at this so we might as well enjoy it and try to make our mark.
Except that both the UK and EU will sign the treaty before the debate starts. It is done. No Deal is gone. The vote simply is about consent.
Na, if either the UK or EU parliaments vote it down it won't be ratified. The agreement is to bridge the gap between provisional acceptance now, and final ratification.
But the deal will pass. In the massively unlikely even that most of the Tory and Labour MPs rebel against their whip and vote no, they will be given a new opportunity shortly afterwards to reconsider.
It would require the non-ERG Conservative members of Parliament to walk through the "No" lobby, just to spite the ERG. A temptation for many perhaps, but ain't happenng.
Time to bring the drawbridge up on the M1 and the A1.
Would it make more sense to move patients to the Nightingale and borrow staff from other areas if possible rather than taking the London variant northwards?
This is broadly in line with what I'd predict. I do think we may well see a hicup in the vaccine rollout - at every stage so far, whether through incompetence or it being an impossible job from the standing start they were given by the previous three Tory administrations, something has gone wrong - but it won't be too major and while it may mean we miss Boris' back to normal by Easter deadline, take up and the virus seemingly dying down a bit in summer will mean we're back to more or less normal.
As for a boom, I think we may well have a summer a bit like 2012 - with the Euro finals taking place here, an Olympics, and India here in the cricket, as well as festivals etc returning. Those who were able to save during the pandemic and still have jobs will be keen to make up for lost time and we'll have a boom that briefly feels like it. However, it may come with a nasty sting in the autumn as we realise it's unevenly spread, with many businesses and those they serve not coming back, doesn't catch up to where we were, and Sunak begins to lean towards clawing back the Covid cash. Not least because, as others have said, Brexit adds a slow puncture that stops us getting up to maximum speed - and the promised benefits of divergence won't exist yet, if we diverge much at all pre-2024 when things come up for review, as to not play chicken with tariffs and potential retaliation on services.
Brexit. The debate will change but won't go away. Because there'll be plenty for special interest groups to complain about the detail, and the scrutiny hasn't happened ahead of time. Lots of things will fizzle out as issues, but the odd one will catch fire - and journalists will not want for businesses who've gone under/laid off people due to new bureaucratic restrictions.
It also won't disappear because with the exception of the Labour leadership, no one has an interest in it doing so. Boris and Brexiteers have an interest in championing the deal as brilliant in a way that antagonises those (mainly remainers) who believe he's one of the most despicable, fraudulent politicians post-war Britain has produced. Sturgeon will use every thing that might not be great, as well as Brexiteers own rhetoric about sovereignty being vital, to justify Scottish independence. The Lib Dems will use opposition to carve out a distinctive position and get a megaphone, and the Labour left will use it to bash Starmer.
In the longer term, the dog that will bark, but won't bite in 2021 is younger generations (If you're under 50 you most likely voted remain, if under 30 more likely to have lost income due to Covid) feeling their elders don't just fail to listen to them, but are actively hostile and selfishly malevolent towards them - cutting off opportunities, pricing them out of housing, and then continually whining about them in waging a culture war. The young's revenge on the older Brexiteers won't happen in 2021, but we may start to see the arguments that eventually lead to it.
I think that last prediction (though sufficiently far off that you’ll never get judged on it) is I think a very good one. The HYUFD style triumphalism is just more salt on those wounds.
There’s perhaps a tenuous parallel with the Thatcher years. The resentment had no real political effect for a decade, but proved persistent enough that the Tories had to distance themselves from that period in order to get back into power, after being in opposition for over a decade.
Isn't that just some ridiculuos propaganda nonsense from the two of you, again?
The HoC and the HoL may rubberstamp the deal on Dec 30th.
The European Parliament has said "We won't be rushed into a vote on this. We won't rubberstamp anything. We insist on proper scrutiny. In the plenum, in all the relevant committees. This takes time. Not a day, not a week, but more than a month. We will vote on the deal in February."
Until then it may be in force provisionally, but if the deal is then rejected, there will be a no-deal situation - and any new deal will then have to be ratified by every single national legislature.
There is no reason I can see why we could not have copied the EU Parliament example with a provisional acceptance subject to later proper scrutiny and vote. Given that we already know that most of the MPs intend to support the deal with the only alternative being No Deal, it seems petty and self defeating to deny them the right to do their job and properly scrutinise it.
Gavin Williamson is so incompetent I bet that he pays full price for a sofa at DFS.
David Herdson's reply
'Chris Grayling pays five years in advance.'
And then moves house and forgets he ordered the furniture.
And cannot find where he has moved to
Now Brexit Is Done, can we get rid of the Get Brexit Done cabinet?
(Subsidiary questions- 1 Who needs to go? 2 Can they be dumped without causing Backbench Unhappiness? 3 Who is available on the subs bench? I don't know any more, but I'm not optimistic of there being a Pile Of Talent, just waiting their moment.)
They are such self-indulgent, posturing, adolescent twats. What if there is actually a very big rebellion and the Brexit deal is somehow voted down? It is highly unlikely but not impossible.
Then we get No Deal. That is what the Lib Dems are literally voting for. And the SNP. No Deal.
Let the Lib Dems be expunged from history. There is no reason for them to exist any more.
The LDs are now basically nationally an economically centrist party for diehard Remainers in England and Wales and for Unionist diehard Remainers in Scotland, plus for a few more voters who like LD councillors allegedly mending potholes and opposing new housing at local level but who will still vote Tory or Labour at Westminster level
"Die Hard remain" is not a centrist position (nor a Xmas movie). We have left and are not rejoining anytime soon, centrists recognise reality unlike ideologues. Having closer links to the EU than this deal works, but there is a high chance all parties including the Tories will be selling variants of that come 2024.
LDs need re-invention or they will cease to be relevant (relevant at all, before the inevitable put downs that they never were). Green should be their future.
About 20 to 25% of voters are still diehard Remainers, with both Labour and the Tories now backing the Brexit Deal the LDs could largely have that pool all to themselves, certainly in England
How can they? There Vote Leave/Boris Johnson rhetoric doesn't match the deal.
Reality doesn't prevent a pushback.
Indeed. They need to start blaming the fishermen.
They already are, and claiming that there are so few we can ignore them. Vidse HYUFD's sudden change of mind over the last 2-3 days. Fisherfolk are obvciously now subversive and treasonous rather than stalwart voters, salt of the, err, North Sea, foundation of SCUP triumph.
Comments
https://twitter.com/ReutersUK/status/1343967467341807617?s=20
The details are linked to here (and described in the following Twitter thread):
https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1343839675648258050
#NoDealNicola
https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1343973011020517376?s=20
Shapps seemed to imply on the radio the other day that the new strain was more likely to be asymptomatic but I think he either misspoke or I was over-analyzing.
https://twitter.com/SirRogerGale/status/1343645044193042436
Tory MPs finally losing patience with Williamson and the DfE. Their email inboxes must be red hot with complaints from parents - even the Jezza Vine phone in on Radio 2 was struggling to find anyone demanding schools be kept open.
"We want to foster co-operation on issues of common interest, not establish international institutions for their own sake. Accordingly we are critical of many of the objectives built in to the EU treaties, of the EU institutions and how they work, and of many particular EU policies. We believe many things done and decided in Europe might better be done by member states or by regions or localities. So while we are members of the EU we will work for its fundamental reform.... why bother with the European Union at all?"
If that gets scrapped I will Lose My Shit.
https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/1343973148308492289?s=20
This was an interesting stat which further reinforces the case for greater infectiousness (“wild type” means everything else which isn’t the new variant):
https://twitter.com/kakape/status/1343843909403889665
"Mike Park, the chief executive of the Scottish White Fish Producers Association, said his members were “deeply aggrieved” about the immediate future. It was far from clear whether fleets would benefit greatly once the transition period was over.
“The issue of sovereignty and our future ability to negotiate additional shares after the five-and-a-half-year window would seem clouded by so much complexity that it is difficult at this time to see how the UK government can use its newly recovered sovereignty to improve the situation of my members,” he said."
Perhaps the government could send out someone trusted and knowledgeable like Robert Jenrick to do a head to head interview with these fishing folk and tell them how they are wrong about their own industry. They can't push back more on their fuckup other than by using the HYUFD stratagy - deny, sneer, attack.
I'm so old I remember when Ed Davey was suspended from the Commons after protesting against the Speaker's decision not to allow a vote on a referendum on European Union membership.
(From 2008)
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2008/feb/26/liberaldemocrats.houseofcommons
I actually think we'll see a notable impact on certain national statistics by mid-Jan and I think the weather will come to our aid, again, by late March.
Which suggests to me the the insistence that “schools are completely safe” is, if not an absolute lie, then one of those statements politicians don’t care if it’s true or not.
https://twitter.com/BBCPhilipSim/status/1343976914827042818?s=20
'Chris Grayling pays five years in advance.'
How can schools function with so much Covid doing this to kids and teachers? It pains me greatly- my daughter needs school - but I fear schools will have to stay shut, probably for the whole of January.
Grim.
I can't agree though that Labour are dangerous and incompetent.
Alastair rightly picks out March, Sept and Dec as the moments when Boris messed up.
In March Starmer wasn't saying much (but he was fighting a leadership campaign to be fair).
As soon as he heard the scientific advice for September, he called for action and broke with the govt.
And in December he was ahead of the curve and calling for action.
Except that both the UK and EU will sign the treaty before the debate starts. It is done. No Deal is gone. The vote simply is about consent.
We aren't coming out of lockdowns until a significant proportion of the over 50s have been vaccinated, and not just the over 80s. Fingers crossed that isn't too many weeks away.
Because no-one is not going to believe Labour would have done better against COVID, if the one part of the UK they actually control ends up doing worst of all.
As for a boom, I think we may well have a summer a bit like 2012 - with the Euro finals taking place here, an Olympics, and India here in the cricket, as well as festivals etc returning. Those who were able to save during the pandemic and still have jobs will be keen to make up for lost time and we'll have a boom that briefly feels like it. However, it may come with a nasty sting in the autumn as we realise it's unevenly spread, with many businesses and those they serve not coming back, doesn't catch up to where we were, and Sunak begins to lean towards clawing back the Covid cash. Not least because, as others have said, Brexit adds a slow puncture that stops us getting up to maximum speed - and the promised benefits of divergence won't exist yet, if we diverge much at all pre-2024 when things come up for review, as to not play chicken with tariffs and potential retaliation on services.
Brexit. The debate will change but won't go away. Because there'll be plenty for special interest groups to complain about the detail, and the scrutiny hasn't happened ahead of time. Lots of things will fizzle out as issues, but the odd one will catch fire - and journalists will not want for businesses who've gone under/laid off people due to new bureaucratic restrictions.
It also won't disappear because with the exception of the Labour leadership, no one has an interest in it doing so. Boris and Brexiteers have an interest in championing the deal as brilliant in a way that antagonises those (mainly remainers) who believe he's one of the most despicable, fraudulent politicians post-war Britain has produced. Sturgeon will use every thing that might not be great, as well as Brexiteers own rhetoric about sovereignty being vital, to justify Scottish independence. The Lib Dems will use opposition to carve out a distinctive position and get a megaphone, and the Labour left will use it to bash Starmer.
In the longer term, the dog that will bark, but won't bite in 2021 is younger generations (If you're under 50 you most likely voted remain, if under 30 more likely to have lost income due to Covid) feeling their elders don't just fail to listen to them, but are actively hostile and selfishly malevolent towards them - cutting off opportunities, pricing them out of housing, and then continually whining about them in waging a culture war. The young's revenge on the older Brexiteers won't happen in 2021, but we may start to see the arguments that eventually lead to it.
He got therapy and he got quite a lot better, but some tiresome and unsettling rituals remained, until, finally, the start of this year: when his Dad actually died.
Now he's completely fine.
BBC News - Billionaire UK beauty boss continues expansion with US deal
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55475729
At least the process will actually lead to something this time.
If keeping schools open is an overriding national priority, which we’re repeatedly assured it is, why is government not collecting and publishing those figures ?
https://twitter.com/Douglas4Moray/status/1343980406702485509?s=20
We will need to wait a few more days to see.
Keep Yorkshire for Yorkshire people.
https://twitter.com/HSJEditor/status/1343975957036740608
What a time to be alive!
LDs need re-invention or they will cease to be relevant (relevant at all, before the inevitable put downs that they never were). Green should be their future.
The HoC and the HoL may rubberstamp the deal on Dec 30th.
The European Parliament has said "We won't be rushed into a vote on this. We won't rubberstamp anything. We insist on proper scrutiny. In the plenum, in all the relevant committees. This takes time. Not a day, not a week, but more than a month. We will vote on the deal in February."
Until then it may be in force provisionally, but if the deal is then rejected, there will be a no-deal situation - and any new deal will then have to be ratified by every single national legislature.
Now you say the fishermen hardly matter?!
I would also say that I have been incredibly lucky to date in spite of some sticky situations. Finally I am content with my life as it is at this moment and to have regrets about anything would be to demean what I have now.
We only get one shot at this so we might as well enjoy it and try to make our mark.
https://twitter.com/primevideosport/status/1343983043854397442
Would it make more sense to move patients to the Nightingale and borrow staff from other areas if possible rather than taking the London variant northwards?
Tier 5 soon...
The HYUFD style triumphalism is just more salt on those wounds.
There’s perhaps a tenuous parallel with the Thatcher years. The resentment had no real political effect for a decade, but proved persistent enough that the Tories had to distance themselves from that period in order to get back into power, after being in opposition for over a decade.
(Subsidiary questions-
1 Who needs to go?
2 Can they be dumped without causing Backbench Unhappiness?
3 Who is available on the subs bench? I don't know any more, but I'm not optimistic of there being a Pile Of Talent, just waiting their moment.)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uCbepaX5a5A