Leader of fisher folk on R4 asked by Nick Robinson asked if he was unhappy with BJ’s deal; angry, disappointed and betrayed are better descriptions was the reply.
Govey will be on later to tell him why he was wrong.
This fishing bloke needs to read the Institute of Government report. A right wing Tory think tank knows far more about fishing than fishing folk, and we've had enough of experts.
Leader of fisher folk on R4 asked by Nick Robinson asked if he was unhappy with BJ’s deal; angry, disappointed and betrayed are better descriptions was the reply.
Govey will be on later to tell him why he was wrong.
This fishing bloke needs to read the Institute of Government report. A right wing Tory think tank knows far more about fishing than fishing folk, and we've had enough of experts.
Not saying you're wrong, but is the Institute of Government widely regarded as a "right wing Tory think tank"? I thought it specialised in training for Civil Servants?
If you are a working class Brexiteer who has stuck it to The Man is there a difference?
It used to be a pretty simple concept - an industry knew most about that industry as thats their job. You would have a civil service or politicians to align the needs and interests of the various industries but you didn't try and tell them they were wrong.
Not any more. Fuck business, we have had enough of experts. Red Tape, pointless bureaucracy and costs have suddenly become a Good Thing, and the establishment and its political / administrative overlords don't just know more about fishing or logistics or car manufacturing than these industries, its their job to sweep aside these as "special interest groups".
So we have to cheer on jingoistic crap against foreigners to stand up for fishing AND having screwed fishing over tell the angry fisher men to set aside everything they know and instead read a report from the Institute of Government about fishing.
So is the pattern for 2021. As details of the omnishambles come out the Tories and their parrots will insist the people affected know nothing and instead should accept the benefits of the deal which despite shagging their industry and them personally was actually a Great Triumph for them and their industry according to some report.
Leader of fisher folk on R4 asked by Nick Robinson asked if he was unhappy with BJ’s deal; angry, disappointed and betrayed are better descriptions was the reply.
Govey will be on later to tell him why he was wrong.
He's on now and struggling.
A lot of soundbites but uncomfortable silences on the detail of increased bureaucracy.
Having spent decades arguing why red tape was Bad for business and then specifics about how EU rules are red tape that we had to bin then now need to explain that red tape is Good. Only by imposing large amounts of complex and costly red tape on business can they make it more efficient and more competitive. Or something.
This is why the two sides will never agree. To me (and perhaps you) the fact that UK businesses are going to be saddled with huge new costs and processes is already an indication that Brexit is a failure. To others it is us taking back control.
Perhaps it's a brilliant Tory political move! The amount of "unnecessary" red tape that they could campaign on "cutting" had in recent years dwindled so that when they tried it they kept getting called out on what specifically they regarded as "unnecessary" (closer examination generally tended to highlight it as quite important stuff).
Now they've recreated a whole bundle of it again that they can quite contently go back to campaign to cut all over again
Vaccine rollout will be the big story of 2021. Unfortunately (predictions follow) - it is not going to go smoothly.
The target of getting 25m at risk population by April will be missed. The logistical challenges are considerable and this govt's delivery record questionable. Vaccine will end up being wasted. It will be hard to identify the right people. There will be another IT debacle.
But most importantly - the manufacturers will not make the promised orders at the promised time - they are already missing them. We will see political pressure to help certain countries first regardless of existing orders.
Lockdown 3 will be lifted too early and as a result we will have Lockdown 4. Calls to vaccinate health workers earlier will intensify. Sadly as many people will die of COVID in 2021 in the UK as in 2020.
The bright news is that the vaccine will work and life will return to normality by next Winter. The economy will come roaring back once the virus is beaten.
In domestic politics, Boris Johnson will come under pressure from the ERG to seize the opportunities of Brexit, such as they are. To head off criticism, he will reshuffle his cabinet and make Priti Patel chancellor.
Relations with the EU will, after an initial honeymoon period, deteriorate as both sides claim the other is not respecting the deal. Both sides will make legal threats. To increase the UK's leverage, Boris Johnson will aggressively pursue a US trade deal, exacerbating relations with Europe.
Brexit will however increasingly come to be accepted by the majority. Starmer will pick a fight with Tony Blair/Alastair Campbell and demote anyone suggesting the UK should rejoin.
Overall 2021 will not be the tonic of a year people are hoping for. The struggle against the virus will consume most of it.
You're a bundle of cheer!
One thing - I really don't understand your prediction on COVID deaths if you also think the vaccine will be effective. It will take a serious change in the nature of the virus for this to happen given the demographics of who it kills. Vaccine delays may impact how soon we can start opening up and get back to normal. It's going to have to start killing under 70s in significant numbers for it to beat 2020 on deaths isn't it?
Think it depends how long the vaccine will take to roll out. Plus remember vaccinated people will still die from COVID and most people still haven't got the disease yet.
I think this Winter will be really bad. More people in hospital with COVID now than at start of March lockdown + a more virulent strain + we aren't yet in national lockdown.
We have better treatments but I think likely 2nd wave will be worse.
I wouldn't be quite so pessimistic, but think that you are closer to the truth than the Daily Express, "back to normal by Feb" headlines.
Then there is the massive legacy to deal with. Lots of disability alongside all the deaths. The massive waiting lists and backlogs of other diseases*, the closed businesses that will never re-open, reduced tax receipts for both business and personal tax, and masses and masses of government debt. The big cloud may be that perhaps the virus ain't done with mutating just yet.
* 70% fewer diagnoses of diabetes type 2 this year for example.
Normal is never coming back, at least not for me. For example, my firm has got out of its London leases retain one building. We’re all working at home 3/5 from next year. We’re not alone. That’s a lot of sandwiches not bought.
Retail likewise needs to up its online offer or go to the wall. Apart from food 95% of my spend has been online and almost exclusively with free delivery or free pick up.
With 10,000 persons trained to deliver vaccinations, 1m per week seems a little on the low side. That is only 100 vaccinations per week per medic, or 20 a day. I wonder if the issue is supply.
For the UK to have everyone vaccinated by end of June 2021, the need is for 10m per month, or 2.5m per week, not one.
If we have 40m doses available by the end of March 500k a day seems to meet the supply, if not the demand. If production can be increased I would hope that they could be delivered too.
Like I say,they won’t want to admit their infection control measures are not working.
Although saying that, and to play devil’s advocate against myself, I have been in close contact with several children who have tested positive for Covid (including confiscating a mobile phone from somebody who showed symptoms from the same afternoon) and yet I have so far not contracted the disease. Meanwhile a large number of colleagues have.
It may just be that I am naturally resistant or have somehow been bloody lucky.
It seems that the one over arching priority of almost everyone I meet and talk to is that schools *must* go back. And for reasons that I think everyone can understand.
Anecdotally it is only teachers (and understandably so as they are in the front line) who seem to disagree.
What should we as a society do?
Well, one thing we won’t do is listen to experts.
So presumably, schools will keep going back and the disease will rapidly be more out control than Hannibal’s elephants at the battle of Zama.
You put the escalation of cases down to schools?
If you put a load of people who are prone to asymptomatic transmission in close proximity to each other in unventilated rooms, and then declare ordinary isolation rules don’t apply to them, and send them home every night, amazingly, it does seem that you get a lot of virus running around. There are huge numbers of conflicting studies on this, but what’s been the one constant in the last four months? Open schools. Except in half term, where cases declined for a few weeks afterwards. Might that be due to lockdown? Possibly, but not definitely.
Or to put it another way, is it a coincidence that cases, which were rising slowly, rose sharply as schools and unis went back?
Like I say,they won’t want to admit their infection control measures are not working.
Although saying that, and to play devil’s advocate against myself, I have been in close contact with several children who have tested positive for Covid (including confiscating a mobile phone from somebody who showed symptoms from the same afternoon) and yet I have so far not contracted the disease. Meanwhile a large number of colleagues have.
It may just be that I am naturally resistant or have somehow been bloody lucky.
So do I win our bet then?
I’m betting schools will be kept open. So far, the government are piling on my position.
Didn't we say for in-person teaching? In any case, I'm guessing this is the start of the govt climbdown and there will be further closures.
That seems a really bad example of how it started ... How it's going.
He's making the same point in both Tweets.
Oh no he’s not.
Christmas? It's behind you...
FOM Erasmus Anyone giving a fcuk what fishermen think Credibility of Scottish Tories Access to a pool of recruits for care home work Respect for the promises of HMG No border in the Irish Sea
All behind us, feel free to add to the pile. (at least one of these things may never have existed)
Like I say,they won’t want to admit their infection control measures are not working.
Although saying that, and to play devil’s advocate against myself, I have been in close contact with several children who have tested positive for Covid (including confiscating a mobile phone from somebody who showed symptoms from the same afternoon) and yet I have so far not contracted the disease. Meanwhile a large number of colleagues have.
It may just be that I am naturally resistant or have somehow been bloody lucky.
So do I win our bet then?
I’m betting schools will be kept open. So far, the government are piling on my position.
Didn't we say for in-person teaching? In any case, I'm guessing this is the start of the govt climbdown and there will be further closures.
They had already announced this before our bet. All Gove is doing is restating policy as announced on the 17th December.
As far as I am concerned, for you to win the bet there has to be an announcement of further formalised closures for at least some year groups.
Perhaps it's a brilliant Tory political move! The amount of "unnecessary" red tape that they could campaign on "cutting" had in recent years dwindled so that when they tried it they kept getting called out on what specifically they regarded as "unnecessary" (closer examination generally tended to highlight it as quite important stuff).
Now they've recreated a whole bundle of it again that they can quite contently go back to campaign to cut all over again
The big debate soon will be what to do once the vulnerable have been vaccinated. With the new strain, the choice will eventually be between everyone ending up in tier 4 until the end of vaccination, or letting it rip. The temptation will be to go for the latter, explicitly or implicitly. It's not clear to me what the right answer is, as covid is still worse than the flu, and as we've seen with the new strain, the course of the pandemic is not entirely predictable.
I was very much of the mindset that once the over 60s and those with conditions had been treated the balance of risk swung very strongly in favour of getting our economy going again but the speed of spread of the new variant and the relatively brief period of time before everyone is vaccinated has made me more cautious than I was. We certainly will want to get schools and Universities back to normal and we will want to let what remains of our leisure sector back in business but social distancing, masks and self isolation for those infected will very much remain in the mix.
Like I say,they won’t want to admit their infection control measures are not working.
Although saying that, and to play devil’s advocate against myself, I have been in close contact with several children who have tested positive for Covid (including confiscating a mobile phone from somebody who showed symptoms from the same afternoon) and yet I have so far not contracted the disease. Meanwhile a large number of colleagues have.
It may just be that I am naturally resistant or have somehow been bloody lucky.
It seems that the one over arching priority of almost everyone I meet and talk to is that schools *must* go back. And for reasons that I think everyone can understand.
Anecdotally it is only teachers (and understandably so as they are in the front line) who seem to disagree.
What should we as a society do?
Incidentally, I think plenty of children would disagree too, and not just for the obvious reason. I had a lot of children who were pretty frightened and upset by the scale of Covid cases within schools, not to mention deeply unsettled by all the disruption it was causing them. Absence from ‘sickness’ was a lot higher this year and I suspect a reluctance to go into a plague pit was part of it, although I only came across one case where a student was brave enough to openly admit it.
Then there is the question of exams. I cannot see them happening in England again in May/June, the other countries have already said no. Hopefully the students will catch up to some degree, but we will have A level students who have never sat a GCSE and university students who have never taken an A level exam.
Fox jr2 seems to be thriving at KCL, despite not physically entering the place since he started. He is learning loads, enthused by his course, and looking like heading for a first going by his first term marks. Not bad for slipping in at clearing. His acting company is restarting and planning performances at Easter before taking a summer show to the Edinburgh fringe. I am impressed at his flexibility and drive.
"With a customs border in the Irish Sea, the UK becomes the first country in the world not to be able to freely trade with itself. Let that sink in as Johnson crows about his deal ..."
Leader of fisher folk on R4 asked by Nick Robinson asked if he was unhappy with BJ’s deal; angry, disappointed and betrayed are better descriptions was the reply.
Govey will be on later to tell him why he was wrong.
He's on now and struggling.
A lot of soundbites but uncomfortable silences on the detail of increased bureaucracy.
Having spent decades arguing why red tape was Bad for business and then specifics about how EU rules are red tape that we had to bin then now need to explain that red tape is Good. Only by imposing large amounts of complex and costly red tape on business can they make it more efficient and more competitive. Or something.
This is why the two sides will never agree. To me (and perhaps you) the fact that UK businesses are going to be saddled with huge new costs and processes is already an indication that Brexit is a failure. To others it is us taking back control.
Perhaps it's a brilliant Tory political move! The amount of "unnecessary" red tape that they could campaign on "cutting" had in recent years dwindled so that when they tried it they kept getting called out on what specifically they regarded as "unnecessary" (closer examination generally tended to highlight it as quite important stuff).
Now they've recreated a whole bundle of it again that they can quite contently go back to campaign to cut all over again
My guess is that you are being cynical but undoubtedly removing the unnecessary bureaucracy and inconveniences generated by the current deal is going to be a priority for governments of all stripes over the next few years. A serious backlog of lorries in the likes of Calais should help.
Like I say,they won’t want to admit their infection control measures are not working.
Although saying that, and to play devil’s advocate against myself, I have been in close contact with several children who have tested positive for Covid (including confiscating a mobile phone from somebody who showed symptoms from the same afternoon) and yet I have so far not contracted the disease. Meanwhile a large number of colleagues have.
It may just be that I am naturally resistant or have somehow been bloody lucky.
It seems that the one over arching priority of almost everyone I meet and talk to is that schools *must* go back. And for reasons that I think everyone can understand.
Anecdotally it is only teachers (and understandably so as they are in the front line) who seem to disagree.
What should we as a society do?
Well, one thing we won’t do is listen to experts.
So presumably, schools will keep going back and the disease will rapidly be more out control than Hannibal’s elephants at the battle of Zama.
You put the escalation of cases down to schools?
If you put a load of people who are prone to asymptomatic transmission in close proximity to each other in unventilated rooms, and then declare ordinary isolation rules don’t apply to them, and send them home every night, amazingly, it does seem that you get a lot of virus running around. There are huge numbers of conflicting studies on this, but what’s been the one constant in the last four months? Open schools. Except in half term, where cases declined for a few weeks afterwards. Might that be due to lockdown? Possibly, but not definitely.
Or to put it another way, is it a coincidence that cases, which were rising slowly, rose sharply as schools and unis went back?
Perhaps. As you say we don't know. Anecdotally again just about every single uni student I know either had it or was in a house with someone who had it.
Schools? No idea. But as I say it seems to be consensus amongst those who aren't teachers that schools must be kept open.
Like I say,they won’t want to admit their infection control measures are not working.
Although saying that, and to play devil’s advocate against myself, I have been in close contact with several children who have tested positive for Covid (including confiscating a mobile phone from somebody who showed symptoms from the same afternoon) and yet I have so far not contracted the disease. Meanwhile a large number of colleagues have.
It may just be that I am naturally resistant or have somehow been bloody lucky.
It seems that the one over arching priority of almost everyone I meet and talk to is that schools *must* go back. And for reasons that I think everyone can understand.
Anecdotally it is only teachers (and understandably so as they are in the front line) who seem to disagree.
What should we as a society do?
Incidentally, I think plenty of children would disagree too, and not just for the obvious reason. I had a lot of children who were pretty frightened and upset by the scale of Covid cases within schools, not to mention deeply unsettled by all the disruption it was causing them. Absence from ‘sickness’ was a lot higher this year and I suspect a reluctance to go into a plague pit was part of it, although I only came across one case where a student was brave enough to openly admit it.
Then there is the question of exams. I cannot see them happening in England again in May/June, the other countries have already said no. Hopefully the students will catch up to some degree, but we will have A level students who have never sat a GCSE and university students who have never taken an A level exam.
Fox jr2 seems to be thriving at KCL, despite not physically entering the place since he started. He is learning loads, enthused by his course, and looking like heading for a first going by his first term marks. Not bad for slipping in at clearing. His acting company is restarting and planning performances at Easter before taking a summer show to the Edinburgh fringe. I am impressed at his flexibility and drive.
Again, you must understand exams are not about seeing how much children have learned - how could it be, when it will depend on how much Covid there is in their school? It’s about showing the government are in charge. They will not want to admit they’ve made a dumb call because they lack imagination and intelligence.
Glad to hear Foxjr2 is doing OK. It’s something to hear anyone is at the moment.
Vaccine rollout will be the big story of 2021. Unfortunately (predictions follow) - it is not going to go smoothly.
The target of getting 25m at risk population by April will be missed. The logistical challenges are considerable and this govt's delivery record questionable. Vaccine will end up being wasted. It will be hard to identify the right people. There will be another IT debacle.
But most importantly - the manufacturers will not make the promised orders at the promised time - they are already missing them. We will see political pressure to help certain countries first regardless of existing orders.
Lockdown 3 will be lifted too early and as a result we will have Lockdown 4. Calls to vaccinate health workers earlier will intensify. Sadly as many people will die of COVID in 2021 in the UK as in 2020.
The bright news is that the vaccine will work and life will return to normality by next Winter. The economy will come roaring back once the virus is beaten.
In domestic politics, Boris Johnson will come under pressure from the ERG to seize the opportunities of Brexit, such as they are. To head off criticism, he will reshuffle his cabinet and make Priti Patel chancellor.
Relations with the EU will, after an initial honeymoon period, deteriorate as both sides claim the other is not respecting the deal. Both sides will make legal threats. To increase the UK's leverage, Boris Johnson will aggressively pursue a US trade deal, exacerbating relations with Europe.
Brexit will however increasingly come to be accepted by the majority. Starmer will pick a fight with Tony Blair/Alastair Campbell and demote anyone suggesting the UK should rejoin.
Overall 2021 will not be the tonic of a year people are hoping for. The struggle against the virus will consume most of it.
You're a bundle of cheer!
One thing - I really don't understand your prediction on COVID deaths if you also think the vaccine will be effective. It will take a serious change in the nature of the virus for this to happen given the demographics of who it kills. Vaccine delays may impact how soon we can start opening up and get back to normal. It's going to have to start killing under 70s in significant numbers for it to beat 2020 on deaths isn't it?
Think it depends how long the vaccine will take to roll out. Plus remember vaccinated people will still die from COVID and most people still haven't got the disease yet.
I think this Winter will be really bad. More people in hospital with COVID now than at start of March lockdown + a more virulent strain + we aren't yet in national lockdown.
We have better treatments but I think likely 2nd wave will be worse.
I wouldn't be quite so pessimistic, but think that you are closer to the truth than the Daily Express, "back to normal by Feb" headlines.
Then there is the massive legacy to deal with. Lots of disability alongside all the deaths. The massive waiting lists and backlogs of other diseases*, the closed businesses that will never re-open, reduced tax receipts for both business and personal tax, and masses and masses of government debt. The big cloud may be that perhaps the virus ain't done with mutating just yet.
* 70% fewer diagnoses of diabetes type 2 this year for example.
Less worried about the economy actually - I expect that to bounce back fast once the disease is under control. NZ and Aus seem to be having very strong growth which is encouraging.
Like I say,they won’t want to admit their infection control measures are not working.
Although saying that, and to play devil’s advocate against myself, I have been in close contact with several children who have tested positive for Covid (including confiscating a mobile phone from somebody who showed symptoms from the same afternoon) and yet I have so far not contracted the disease. Meanwhile a large number of colleagues have.
It may just be that I am naturally resistant or have somehow been bloody lucky.
It seems that the one over arching priority of almost everyone I meet and talk to is that schools *must* go back. And for reasons that I think everyone can understand.
Anecdotally it is only teachers (and understandably so as they are in the front line) who seem to disagree.
What should we as a society do?
Well, one thing we won’t do is listen to experts.
So presumably, schools will keep going back and the disease will rapidly be more out control than Hannibal’s elephants at the battle of Zama.
You put the escalation of cases down to schools?
If you put a load of people who are prone to asymptomatic transmission in close proximity to each other in unventilated rooms, and then declare ordinary isolation rules don’t apply to them, and send them home every night, amazingly, it does seem that you get a lot of virus running around. There are huge numbers of conflicting studies on this, but what’s been the one constant in the last four months? Open schools. Except in half term, where cases declined for a few weeks afterwards. Might that be due to lockdown? Possibly, but not definitely.
Or to put it another way, is it a coincidence that cases, which were rising slowly, rose sharply as schools and unis went back?
Perhaps. As you say we don't know. Anecdotally again just about every single uni student I know either had it or was in a house with someone who had it.
Schools? No idea. But as I say it seems to be consensus amongst those who aren't teachers that schools must be kept open.
But that’s not the question. The question is whether they *can* be kept open without causing a catastrophe.
Given the weak epidemiological controls, the nature of our school buildings and the virulence of this new strain, the answer seems likely to be ‘no.’
Equally, however, closing them causes a different sort of catastrophe.
But neither is the prime consideration of the government right now.
I put up a list of pros and cons of keeping schools open yesterday, don’t know if you saw it. But one thing I’m certain of is that no Minister or civil servant is considering them objectively.
With a bit of luck, the removal of the "EU bogeyman" will help us focus on what WE need to do......educate our workforce, make stuff the world wants....
Interesting chat with my brother & sis-in-law up in Buchan last night (same village we're moving to). Talked about prospects for the new year with our respective kids facing time off schools. As I understand it theirs are all shut until 11th Jan, here on Teesside its just the high schools, but we both think that will be widened and extended.
Oh yeah. "There's a lot of angry fishing people up here". Perhaps the people who voted for Brexit then the Tories for the betterment of the fishing industry should read the Institute of Government report. That'll make it all better.
Like I say,they won’t want to admit their infection control measures are not working.
Although saying that, and to play devil’s advocate against myself, I have been in close contact with several children who have tested positive for Covid (including confiscating a mobile phone from somebody who showed symptoms from the same afternoon) and yet I have so far not contracted the disease. Meanwhile a large number of colleagues have.
It may just be that I am naturally resistant or have somehow been bloody lucky.
So do I win our bet then?
I’m betting schools will be kept open. So far, the government are piling on my position.
Didn't we say for in-person teaching? In any case, I'm guessing this is the start of the govt climbdown and there will be further closures.
Scottish schools are currently shut to the 18th with online teaching starting from the 11th (my son's school are in fact renewing their online classes from the 6th). My guess is that unless there is a significant drop in numbers (which seems highly unlikely) this "online" teaching will persist until the end of the month. After all, having cancelled the exams, all pressure to actually teach anything has disappeared.
That seems a really bad example of how it started ... How it's going.
He's making the same point in both Tweets.
Is he? Doesn't the second tweet suggest that 'atheists' are eradicating "Christmas" from everything. Whereas in the first tweet he's suggesting that's something that's being imagined?
Second tweet is like... "ok you were right, but i had nothing to do with it..."
Um no. What he is pointing out is that no one says those things ( replacing Christmas with holiday) and hence the idea that Christmas is being erased is complete garbage. And he is absolutely right. Even he says Merry Christmas in his tweets.
Like I say,they won’t want to admit their infection control measures are not working.
Although saying that, and to play devil’s advocate against myself, I have been in close contact with several children who have tested positive for Covid (including confiscating a mobile phone from somebody who showed symptoms from the same afternoon) and yet I have so far not contracted the disease. Meanwhile a large number of colleagues have.
It may just be that I am naturally resistant or have somehow been bloody lucky.
So do I win our bet then?
I’m betting schools will be kept open. So far, the government are piling on my position.
Didn't we say for in-person teaching? In any case, I'm guessing this is the start of the govt climbdown and there will be further closures.
Scottish schools are currently shut to the 18th with online teaching starting from the 11th (my son's school are in fact renewing their online classes from the 6th). My guess is that unless there is a significant drop in numbers (which seems highly unlikely) this "online" teaching will persist until the end of the month. After all, having cancelled the exams, all pressure to actually teach anything has disappeared.
Like I say,they won’t want to admit their infection control measures are not working.
Although saying that, and to play devil’s advocate against myself, I have been in close contact with several children who have tested positive for Covid (including confiscating a mobile phone from somebody who showed symptoms from the same afternoon) and yet I have so far not contracted the disease. Meanwhile a large number of colleagues have.
It may just be that I am naturally resistant or have somehow been bloody lucky.
So do I win our bet then?
I’m betting schools will be kept open. So far, the government are piling on my position.
Didn't we say for in-person teaching? In any case, I'm guessing this is the start of the govt climbdown and there will be further closures.
Scottish schools are currently shut to the 18th with online teaching starting from the 11th (my son's school are in fact renewing their online classes from the 6th). My guess is that unless there is a significant drop in numbers (which seems highly unlikely) this "online" teaching will persist until the end of the month. After all, having cancelled the exams, all pressure to actually teach anything has disappeared.
Thanks for the context. I'm pretty sure my bet with ydoethur was for English schools. Given the situation, online learning seems a necessary compromise to me.
My guess is that you are being cynical but undoubtedly removing the unnecessary bureaucracy and inconveniences generated by the current deal is going to be a priority for governments of all stripes over the next few years. A serious backlog of lorries in the likes of Calais should help.
Only by repudiating Brexit
The current Government line is that red tape is good for you
On the upside once all cohorts have a case the school will be closed for a fortnight so I expect an entertaining period of 2 weeks in isolation, 1 week in school for a lot of children
Oh yeah? Expect the criteria to be tightened further if it gets bad. Within 1 metre of a student for more than 30 minutes, for one week, would be my guess.
We are talking about a government that has wilfully lied about the state of schools. Don’t assume that just because they want the impossible and actually dangerous they will stop asking for it.
With a bit of luck, the removal of the "EU bogeyman" will help us focus on what WE need to do......educate our workforce, make stuff the world wants....
Completely agree. Whilst I did not like the undemocratic nature of the project and was concerned about the QMV of the EZ going forward I have always thought that we have a series of much bigger issues to address at home. Let's hope that is where the focus is in 2021 and beyond.
Like I say,they won’t want to admit their infection control measures are not working.
Although saying that, and to play devil’s advocate against myself, I have been in close contact with several children who have tested positive for Covid (including confiscating a mobile phone from somebody who showed symptoms from the same afternoon) and yet I have so far not contracted the disease. Meanwhile a large number of colleagues have.
It may just be that I am naturally resistant or have somehow been bloody lucky.
So do I win our bet then?
I’m betting schools will be kept open. So far, the government are piling on my position.
Didn't we say for in-person teaching? In any case, I'm guessing this is the start of the govt climbdown and there will be further closures.
Scottish schools are currently shut to the 18th with online teaching starting from the 11th (my son's school are in fact renewing their online classes from the 6th). My guess is that unless there is a significant drop in numbers (which seems highly unlikely) this "online" teaching will persist until the end of the month. After all, having cancelled the exams, all pressure to actually teach anything has disappeared.
Thanks for the context. I'm pretty sure my bet with ydoethur was for English schools. Given the situation, online learning seems a necessary compromise to me.
online learning will result in the have nots getting even further behind and require cancelling exams...
Like I say,they won’t want to admit their infection control measures are not working.
Although saying that, and to play devil’s advocate against myself, I have been in close contact with several children who have tested positive for Covid (including confiscating a mobile phone from somebody who showed symptoms from the same afternoon) and yet I have so far not contracted the disease. Meanwhile a large number of colleagues have.
It may just be that I am naturally resistant or have somehow been bloody lucky.
So do I win our bet then?
I’m betting schools will be kept open. So far, the government are piling on my position.
Didn't we say for in-person teaching? In any case, I'm guessing this is the start of the govt climbdown and there will be further closures.
Scottish schools are currently shut to the 18th with online teaching starting from the 11th (my son's school are in fact renewing their online classes from the 6th). My guess is that unless there is a significant drop in numbers (which seems highly unlikely) this "online" teaching will persist until the end of the month. After all, having cancelled the exams, all pressure to actually teach anything has disappeared.
Thanks for the context. I'm pretty sure my bet with ydoethur was for English schools. Given the situation, online learning seems a necessary compromise to me.
Yes.
But again, while it may be necessary, it will also be politically unacceptable for this lot. They will not do it unless they feel they have absolutely no other choice.
With a bit of luck, the removal of the "EU bogeyman" will help us focus on what WE need to do......educate our workforce, make stuff the world wants....
Much easier to make stuff the World wants as members of the single market, as Thatcher knew.
On the upside once all cohorts have a case the school will be closed for a fortnight so I expect an entertaining period of 2 weeks in isolation, 1 week in school for a lot of children
Oh yeah? Expect the criteria to be tightened further if it gets bad. Within 1 metre of a student for more than 30 minutes, for one week, would be my guess.
We are talking about a government that has wilfully lied about the state of schools. Don’t assume that just because they want the impossible and actually dangerous they will stop asking for it.
Introducing the new 29 minute lesson.
Amusing, but remember in most age groups up to year 9 they sit in the same seats all day anyway at the moment.
Like I say,they won’t want to admit their infection control measures are not working.
Although saying that, and to play devil’s advocate against myself, I have been in close contact with several children who have tested positive for Covid (including confiscating a mobile phone from somebody who showed symptoms from the same afternoon) and yet I have so far not contracted the disease. Meanwhile a large number of colleagues have.
It may just be that I am naturally resistant or have somehow been bloody lucky.
It seems that the one over arching priority of almost everyone I meet and talk to is that schools *must* go back. And for reasons that I think everyone can understand.
Anecdotally it is only teachers (and understandably so as they are in the front line) who seem to disagree.
What should we as a society do?
Well, one thing we won’t do is listen to experts.
So presumably, schools will keep going back and the disease will rapidly be more out control than Hannibal’s elephants at the battle of Zama.
You put the escalation of cases down to schools?
If you put a load of people who are prone to asymptomatic transmission in close proximity to each other in unventilated rooms, and then declare ordinary isolation rules don’t apply to them, and send them home every night, amazingly, it does seem that you get a lot of virus running around. There are huge numbers of conflicting studies on this, but what’s been the one constant in the last four months? Open schools. Except in half term, where cases declined for a few weeks afterwards. Might that be due to lockdown? Possibly, but not definitely.
Or to put it another way, is it a coincidence that cases, which were rising slowly, rose sharply as schools and unis went back?
Perhaps. As you say we don't know. Anecdotally again just about every single uni student I know either had it or was in a house with someone who had it.
Schools? No idea. But as I say it seems to be consensus amongst those who aren't teachers that schools must be kept open.
But that’s not the question. The question is whether they *can* be kept open without causing a catastrophe.
Given the weak epidemiological controls, the nature of our school buildings and the virulence of this new strain, the answer seems likely to be ‘no.’
Equally, however, closing them causes a different sort of catastrophe.
But neither is the prime consideration of the government right now.
I put up a list of pros and cons of keeping schools open yesterday, don’t know if you saw it. But one thing I’m certain of is that no Minister or civil servant is considering them objectively.
I suspect they are.
What they say in public on the other hand is another matter. One problem with modern politics is line to take is the line to take until its not.
If a Minister goes on the media and speaks openly and honestly about the challenges or that they're not certain what they'll do or advise then the media doesn't congratulate them for thinking through the challenges, instead it all becomes a story about inconsistency of messaging, u-turn ahead, uncertainty yadda yadda yadda.
The modern media infantilises debate and encourages the honest conversations to be had away from it.
Like I say,they won’t want to admit their infection control measures are not working.
Although saying that, and to play devil’s advocate against myself, I have been in close contact with several children who have tested positive for Covid (including confiscating a mobile phone from somebody who showed symptoms from the same afternoon) and yet I have so far not contracted the disease. Meanwhile a large number of colleagues have.
It may just be that I am naturally resistant or have somehow been bloody lucky.
It seems that the one over arching priority of almost everyone I meet and talk to is that schools *must* go back. And for reasons that I think everyone can understand.
Anecdotally it is only teachers (and understandably so as they are in the front line) who seem to disagree.
What should we as a society do?
Well, one thing we won’t do is listen to experts.
So presumably, schools will keep going back and the disease will rapidly be more out control than Hannibal’s elephants at the battle of Zama.
You put the escalation of cases down to schools?
If you put a load of people who are prone to asymptomatic transmission in close proximity to each other in unventilated rooms, and then declare ordinary isolation rules don’t apply to them, and send them home every night, amazingly, it does seem that you get a lot of virus running around. There are huge numbers of conflicting studies on this, but what’s been the one constant in the last four months? Open schools. Except in half term, where cases declined for a few weeks afterwards. Might that be due to lockdown? Possibly, but not definitely.
Or to put it another way, is it a coincidence that cases, which were rising slowly, rose sharply as schools and unis went back?
Perhaps. As you say we don't know. Anecdotally again just about every single uni student I know either had it or was in a house with someone who had it.
Schools? No idea. But as I say it seems to be consensus amongst those who aren't teachers that schools must be kept open.
But that’s not the question. The question is whether they *can* be kept open without causing a catastrophe.
Given the weak epidemiological controls, the nature of our school buildings and the virulence of this new strain, the answer seems likely to be ‘no.’
Equally, however, closing them causes a different sort of catastrophe.
But neither is the prime consideration of the government right now.
I put up a list of pros and cons of keeping schools open yesterday, don’t know if you saw it. But one thing I’m certain of is that no Minister or civil servant is considering them objectively.
I suspect they are.
What they say in public on the other hand is another matter. One problem with modern politics is line to take is the line to take until its not.
If a Minister goes on the media and speaks openly and honestly about the challenges or that they're not certain what they'll do or advise then the media doesn't congratulate them for thinking through the challenges, instead it all becomes a story about inconsistency of messaging, u-turn ahead, uncertainty yadda yadda yadda.
The modern media infantilises debate and encourages the honest conversations to be had away from it.
I would like to think you are right.
Having dealt with the DfE for 15 years, I am however not able to. They really are that dumb.
With a bit of luck, the removal of the "EU bogeyman" will help us focus on what WE need to do......educate our workforce, make stuff the world wants....
Nah, folk will still blame the EU.
It has never been obvious to me how losing European markets helps gain any market elsewhere.
The main drive for Brexit has always been envy, and for those struggling in left behind areas to take their revenge on their fellow countrymen who have done well in recent years. No-one hates their fellow countryman more than a "patriotic" flag waving Brexiteer.
Like I say,they won’t want to admit their infection control measures are not working.
Although saying that, and to play devil’s advocate against myself, I have been in close contact with several children who have tested positive for Covid (including confiscating a mobile phone from somebody who showed symptoms from the same afternoon) and yet I have so far not contracted the disease. Meanwhile a large number of colleagues have.
It may just be that I am naturally resistant or have somehow been bloody lucky.
So do I win our bet then?
I’m betting schools will be kept open. So far, the government are piling on my position.
Didn't we say for in-person teaching? In any case, I'm guessing this is the start of the govt climbdown and there will be further closures.
Scottish schools are currently shut to the 18th with online teaching starting from the 11th (my son's school are in fact renewing their online classes from the 6th). My guess is that unless there is a significant drop in numbers (which seems highly unlikely) this "online" teaching will persist until the end of the month. After all, having cancelled the exams, all pressure to actually teach anything has disappeared.
Thanks for the context. I'm pretty sure my bet with ydoethur was for English schools. Given the situation, online learning seems a necessary compromise to me.
The problem is that effective online teaching is actually really hard. It requires a lot of thought and effort by the teachers and a high level of commitment by the pupils. We supposedly had this in state schools in June and it was largely a farce. A notice would be put up telling pupils to read a chapter, a teacher would be available to answer questions, some work would be submitted online and marked.
My son's school (private) was really very different but in fairness they had major advantages in terms of the 2 criteria I have set out. They had interactive classes as per the normal timetable, lots and lots of questions both ways in a group environment and huge amounts of material provided for the students to work on in class. The effort of the staff was pretty amazing. Had it not been for the loss of social interaction between the kids it would have been completely acceptable.
We really need to have enforced quarantine for them when they get back too. Somewhere pretty basic I think.
Stick in the former army base, where we are putting the illegal immigrant boat people. Two weeks of shitty accommodation and crappy meals will hopefully learn them.
Vaccine rollout will be the big story of 2021. Unfortunately (predictions follow) - it is not going to go smoothly.
The target of getting 25m at risk population by April will be missed. The logistical challenges are considerable and this govt's delivery record questionable. Vaccine will end up being wasted. It will be hard to identify the right people. There will be another IT debacle.
But most importantly - the manufacturers will not make the promised orders at the promised time - they are already missing them. We will see political pressure to help certain countries first regardless of existing orders.
Lockdown 3 will be lifted too early and as a result we will have Lockdown 4. Calls to vaccinate health workers earlier will intensify. Sadly as many people will die of COVID in 2021 in the UK as in 2020.
The bright news is that the vaccine will work and life will return to normality by next Winter. The economy will come roaring back once the virus is beaten.
In domestic politics, Boris Johnson will come under pressure from the ERG to seize the opportunities of Brexit, such as they are. To head off criticism, he will reshuffle his cabinet and make Priti Patel chancellor.
Relations with the EU will, after an initial honeymoon period, deteriorate as both sides claim the other is not respecting the deal. Both sides will make legal threats. To increase the UK's leverage, Boris Johnson will aggressively pursue a US trade deal, exacerbating relations with Europe.
Brexit will however increasingly come to be accepted by the majority. Starmer will pick a fight with Tony Blair/Alastair Campbell and demote anyone suggesting the UK should rejoin.
Overall 2021 will not be the tonic of a year people are hoping for. The struggle against the virus will consume most of it.
You're a bundle of cheer!
One thing - I really don't understand your prediction on COVID deaths if you also think the vaccine will be effective. It will take a serious change in the nature of the virus for this to happen given the demographics of who it kills. Vaccine delays may impact how soon we can start opening up and get back to normal. It's going to have to start killing under 70s in significant numbers for it to beat 2020 on deaths isn't it?
Think it depends how long the vaccine will take to roll out. Plus remember vaccinated people will still die from COVID and most people still haven't got the disease yet.
I think this Winter will be really bad. More people in hospital with COVID now than at start of March lockdown + a more virulent strain + we aren't yet in national lockdown.
We have better treatments but I think likely 2nd wave will be worse.
I wouldn't be quite so pessimistic, but think that you are closer to the truth than the Daily Express, "back to normal by Feb" headlines.
Then there is the massive legacy to deal with. Lots of disability alongside all the deaths. The massive waiting lists and backlogs of other diseases*, the closed businesses that will never re-open, reduced tax receipts for both business and personal tax, and masses and masses of government debt. The big cloud may be that perhaps the virus ain't done with mutating just yet.
* 70% fewer diagnoses of diabetes type 2 this year for example.
Normal is never coming back, at least not for me. For example, my firm has got out of its London leases retain one building. We’re all working at home 3/5 from next year. We’re not alone. That’s a lot of sandwiches not bought.
Retail likewise needs to up its online offer or go to the wall. Apart from food 95% of my spend has been online and almost exclusively with free delivery or free pick up.
The move online is now unstoppable. A few challenges though: 1. How to operate a pick model. Supermarkets take orders online and then pay someone to walk round the shop picking orders. People then complain about cross-offs and substitutes as "I ordered a week ago" - the picker can only pick what is there the same as if you went round the store in person. Or you could shut the store and operate as a warehouse but the same problem is there.
Alternately run centralised warehouses and have local pick points, which is how the likes of Currys are operating in a "closed shop but you can collect" environment. In effect the retail estates of so many of these chains isn't just worthless, it actively costs them money.
2. Online loses money. Until the start of the pandemic each online shop cost the retailer between £5 and £10. The more they do online the more money it costs them - and there's only so many efficiencies the extra volume can unlock. You could try and charge people the actual delivery cost and they would refuse it. This is a big problem for anyone who isn't Amazon - they can afford to make a huge loss delivering things as the rest of their empire is profitable.
3.Strategically the move online absolutely fucks our economy. We are a service led shopping economy built on moving people to places to work and shop and consume. If they don't need to travel as much to work then less need to spend £lots on twatty coffee in expensive offices and shopping. How do we employ all the people who used to service our "needs" when we long since decided to sell off our capacity to actually make things?
"With a customs border in the Irish Sea, the UK becomes the first country in the world not to be able to freely trade with itself. Let that sink in as Johnson crows about his deal ..."
What about the Canary Islands? They're a part of Spain but outside the EU customs union? The GB-NI barriers will probably be more substantial in some areas, but I wouldn't say the UK is the first country ever to do that.
Like I say,they won’t want to admit their infection control measures are not working.
Although saying that, and to play devil’s advocate against myself, I have been in close contact with several children who have tested positive for Covid (including confiscating a mobile phone from somebody who showed symptoms from the same afternoon) and yet I have so far not contracted the disease. Meanwhile a large number of colleagues have.
It may just be that I am naturally resistant or have somehow been bloody lucky.
It seems that the one over arching priority of almost everyone I meet and talk to is that schools *must* go back. And for reasons that I think everyone can understand.
Anecdotally it is only teachers (and understandably so as they are in the front line) who seem to disagree.
What should we as a society do?
Well, one thing we won’t do is listen to experts.
So presumably, schools will keep going back and the disease will rapidly be more out control than Hannibal’s elephants at the battle of Zama.
You put the escalation of cases down to schools?
If you put a load of people who are prone to asymptomatic transmission in close proximity to each other in unventilated rooms, and then declare ordinary isolation rules don’t apply to them, and send them home every night, amazingly, it does seem that you get a lot of virus running around. There are huge numbers of conflicting studies on this, but what’s been the one constant in the last four months? Open schools. Except in half term, where cases declined for a few weeks afterwards. Might that be due to lockdown? Possibly, but not definitely.
Or to put it another way, is it a coincidence that cases, which were rising slowly, rose sharply as schools and unis went back?
Perhaps. As you say we don't know. Anecdotally again just about every single uni student I know either had it or was in a house with someone who had it.
Schools? No idea. But as I say it seems to be consensus amongst those who aren't teachers that schools must be kept open.
But that’s not the question. The question is whether they *can* be kept open without causing a catastrophe.
Given the weak epidemiological controls, the nature of our school buildings and the virulence of this new strain, the answer seems likely to be ‘no.’
Equally, however, closing them causes a different sort of catastrophe.
But neither is the prime consideration of the government right now.
I put up a list of pros and cons of keeping schools open yesterday, don’t know if you saw it. But one thing I’m certain of is that no Minister or civil servant is considering them objectively.
I certainly don't disagree with that.
It seems the country is falling on the side of taking the risk of opening schools at the cost of other parts of society closing.
Not sure "catastrophe" is the right word although it is certainly catastrophic to get and die of Covid.
Like I say,they won’t want to admit their infection control measures are not working.
Although saying that, and to play devil’s advocate against myself, I have been in close contact with several children who have tested positive for Covid (including confiscating a mobile phone from somebody who showed symptoms from the same afternoon) and yet I have so far not contracted the disease. Meanwhile a large number of colleagues have.
It may just be that I am naturally resistant or have somehow been bloody lucky.
So do I win our bet then?
I’m betting schools will be kept open. So far, the government are piling on my position.
Didn't we say for in-person teaching? In any case, I'm guessing this is the start of the govt climbdown and there will be further closures.
Scottish schools are currently shut to the 18th with online teaching starting from the 11th (my son's school are in fact renewing their online classes from the 6th). My guess is that unless there is a significant drop in numbers (which seems highly unlikely) this "online" teaching will persist until the end of the month. After all, having cancelled the exams, all pressure to actually teach anything has disappeared.
England has not cancelled exams.
I know, I am extremely jealous, but I fear that the loss of a significant chunk of January will force you down the same path.
"With a customs border in the Irish Sea, the UK becomes the first country in the world not to be able to freely trade with itself. Let that sink in as Johnson crows about his deal ..."
What about the Canary Islands? They're a part of Spain but outside the EU customs union? The GB-NI barriers will probably be more substantial in some areas, but I wouldn't say the UK is the first country ever to do that.
Is that true Re canary Islands? I can only see they are outside VAT harmonisation area
My guess is that you are being cynical but undoubtedly removing the unnecessary bureaucracy and inconveniences generated by the current deal is going to be a priority for governments of all stripes over the next few years. A serious backlog of lorries in the likes of Calais should help.
Only by repudiating Brexit
The current Government line is that red tape is good for you
A fair bit of discussion about Erasmus scheme in recent days. With claims both about what UK students have lost through not being able to go to European universities, or the UK have lost through EU students not coming here.
A question.
Assuming the British Govt reasons for why they have withdrawn from the scheme are true (EU tripling cost) and setting to one side the debate about whether the new Govt scheme represents an adequate replacement, has there been any comment in the EU press about how EU students have now lost the opportunity to come to the EU and study for a year at some of the World's best universities? And even criticism if this IS something that has been triggered by the EU overplaying its hand and perhaps failing to recognise what an asset UK universities possibly were to the scheme compared to perhaps other third party "associate" members?
That is a very heroic assumption in your first line.
Indeed - but if it's true that the cost tripled, then it provided an excuse that wouldn't otherwise have been available. And it must surely be true that the UK brought a lot more to the scheme than your average country.
I haven’t seen any indication of what this apparent tripling of the cost means compared to what non EU countries pay to participate; is it roughly comparable?
I read that Spain, Germany, France and Italy are the most popular destinations, so perhaps the UK is a bit more of an average country than it thinks it is.
Quel surprise, they don't count the real world though TUD. Great world power my large Kilmarnock bunnet
"With a customs border in the Irish Sea, the UK becomes the first country in the world not to be able to freely trade with itself. Let that sink in as Johnson crows about his deal ..."
What about the Canary Islands? They're a part of Spain but outside the EU customs union? The GB-NI barriers will probably be more substantial in some areas, but I wouldn't say the UK is the first country ever to do that.
Is that true Re canary Islands? I can only see they are outside VAT harmonisation area
Maybe Heligoland (former outpost of the British Empire) is an example...
Like I say,they won’t want to admit their infection control measures are not working.
Although saying that, and to play devil’s advocate against myself, I have been in close contact with several children who have tested positive for Covid (including confiscating a mobile phone from somebody who showed symptoms from the same afternoon) and yet I have so far not contracted the disease. Meanwhile a large number of colleagues have.
It may just be that I am naturally resistant or have somehow been bloody lucky.
So do I win our bet then?
I’m betting schools will be kept open. So far, the government are piling on my position.
Didn't we say for in-person teaching? In any case, I'm guessing this is the start of the govt climbdown and there will be further closures.
Scottish schools are currently shut to the 18th with online teaching starting from the 11th (my son's school are in fact renewing their online classes from the 6th). My guess is that unless there is a significant drop in numbers (which seems highly unlikely) this "online" teaching will persist until the end of the month. After all, having cancelled the exams, all pressure to actually teach anything has disappeared.
We really need to have enforced quarantine for them when they get back too. Somewhere pretty basic I think.
Stick in the former army base, where we are putting the illegal immigrant boat people. Two weeks of shitty accommodation and crappy meals will hopefully learn them.
We really need to have enforced quarantine for them when they get back too. Somewhere pretty basic I think.
Stick in the former army base, where we are putting the illegal immigrant boat people. Two weeks of shitty accommodation and crappy meals will hopefully learn them.
Maybe 3 months, just to be on the safe side?
And back of the queue for the vaccine.
With no vaccine, they won't be flying or any other jollys.
A fair bit of discussion about Erasmus scheme in recent days. With claims both about what UK students have lost through not being able to go to European universities, or the UK have lost through EU students not coming here.
A question.
Assuming the British Govt reasons for why they have withdrawn from the scheme are true (EU tripling cost) and setting to one side the debate about whether the new Govt scheme represents an adequate replacement, has there been any comment in the EU press about how EU students have now lost the opportunity to come to the EU and study for a year at some of the World's best universities? And even criticism if this IS something that has been triggered by the EU overplaying its hand and perhaps failing to recognise what an asset UK universities possibly were to the scheme compared to perhaps other third party "associate" members?
That is a very heroic assumption in your first line.
Indeed - but if it's true that the cost tripled, then it provided an excuse that wouldn't otherwise have been available. And it must surely be true that the UK brought a lot more to the scheme than your average country.
I haven’t seen any indication of what this apparent tripling of the cost means compared to what non EU countries pay to participate; is it roughly comparable?
I read that Spain, Germany, France and Italy are the most popular destinations, so perhaps the UK is a bit more of an average country than it thinks it is.
We're fourth behind Spain (the clear leader), Germany & France, which we're pretty close to and well ahead of Italy.
Spain’s popularity seems to be made up of several factors. The decision of the students who come to the country seems to weigh less on academic factors though.
We're fifth in terms of sending students - twice as many EU students come to the UK as UK students go to the EU. Erasmus accounts for about half UK overseas student placements.
Nice to see a cheerful column - sometimes PB feels a bit grumpy!
That said, as a 70-year-old I view the Oxford vaccine (and the constant drumbeat of media assertions that it'll be approved imminently - if it's certain, what's keeping them?) with unease - "you will be probably 70% less likely to be infected based on a somewhat chaotic clinical trial that we rushed through" beats "you are fully vulnerable" but doesn't feel wonderful. I still hope they'll limit it to the less vulnerable.
Vaccine rollout will be the big story of 2021. Unfortunately (predictions follow) - it is not going to go smoothly.
The target of getting 25m at risk population by April will be missed. The logistical challenges are considerable and this govt's delivery record questionable. Vaccine will end up being wasted. It will be hard to identify the right people. There will be another IT debacle.
But most importantly - the manufacturers will not make the promised orders at the promised time - they are already missing them. We will see political pressure to help certain countries first regardless of existing orders.
Lockdown 3 will be lifted too early and as a result we will have Lockdown 4. Calls to vaccinate health workers earlier will intensify. Sadly as many people will die of COVID in 2021 in the UK as in 2020.
The bright news is that the vaccine will work and life will return to normality by next Winter. The economy will come roaring back once the virus is beaten.
In domestic politics, Boris Johnson will come under pressure from the ERG to seize the opportunities of Brexit, such as they are. To head off criticism, he will reshuffle his cabinet and make Priti Patel chancellor.
Relations with the EU will, after an initial honeymoon period, deteriorate as both sides claim the other is not respecting the deal. Both sides will make legal threats. To increase the UK's leverage, Boris Johnson will aggressively pursue a US trade deal, exacerbating relations with Europe.
Brexit will however increasingly come to be accepted by the majority. Starmer will pick a fight with Tony Blair/Alastair Campbell and demote anyone suggesting the UK should rejoin.
Overall 2021 will not be the tonic of a year people are hoping for. The struggle against the virus will consume most of it.
You're a bundle of cheer!
One thing - I really don't understand your prediction on COVID deaths if you also think the vaccine will be effective. It will take a serious change in the nature of the virus for this to happen given the demographics of who it kills. Vaccine delays may impact how soon we can start opening up and get back to normal. It's going to have to start killing under 70s in significant numbers for it to beat 2020 on deaths isn't it?
Think it depends how long the vaccine will take to roll out. Plus remember vaccinated people will still die from COVID and most people still haven't got the disease yet.
I think this Winter will be really bad. More people in hospital with COVID now than at start of March lockdown + a more virulent strain + we aren't yet in national lockdown.
We have better treatments but I think likely 2nd wave will be worse.
I wouldn't be quite so pessimistic, but think that you are closer to the truth than the Daily Express, "back to normal by Feb" headlines.
Then there is the massive legacy to deal with. Lots of disability alongside all the deaths. The massive waiting lists and backlogs of other diseases*, the closed businesses that will never re-open, reduced tax receipts for both business and personal tax, and masses and masses of government debt. The big cloud may be that perhaps the virus ain't done with mutating just yet.
* 70% fewer diagnoses of diabetes type 2 this year for example.
Normal is never coming back, at least not for me. For example, my firm has got out of its London leases retain one building. We’re all working at home 3/5 from next year. We’re not alone. That’s a lot of sandwiches not bought.
Retail likewise needs to up its online offer or go to the wall. Apart from food 95% of my spend has been online and almost exclusively with free delivery or free pick up.
The move online is now unstoppable. A few challenges though: 1. How to operate a pick model. Supermarkets take orders online and then pay someone to walk round the shop picking orders. People then complain about cross-offs and substitutes as "I ordered a week ago" - the picker can only pick what is there the same as if you went round the store in person. Or you could shut the store and operate as a warehouse but the same problem is there.
Alternately run centralised warehouses and have local pick points, which is how the likes of Currys are operating in a "closed shop but you can collect" environment. In effect the retail estates of so many of these chains isn't just worthless, it actively costs them money.
2. Online loses money. Until the start of the pandemic each online shop cost the retailer between £5 and £10. The more they do online the more money it costs them - and there's only so many efficiencies the extra volume can unlock. You could try and charge people the actual delivery cost and they would refuse it. This is a big problem for anyone who isn't Amazon - they can afford to make a huge loss delivering things as the rest of their empire is profitable.
3.Strategically the move online absolutely fucks our economy. We are a service led shopping economy built on moving people to places to work and shop and consume. If they don't need to travel as much to work then less need to spend £lots on twatty coffee in expensive offices and shopping. How do we employ all the people who used to service our "needs" when we long since decided to sell off our capacity to actually make things?
Is it DEFINITELY unstoppable? Can we definitively draw that conclusion until restrictions are lifted? Retail therapy will still be a thing. Physically wanting to handle purchases will still be a thing. Wanting to get out of the house will still be a thing. Socialising will still be a thing.
I think it's all still speculation at this point. There are lots of reasons given for why there maybe permanent shifts. But until life's back to normal we can't really know. Especially if it loses money!
My guess is that you are being cynical but undoubtedly removing the unnecessary bureaucracy and inconveniences generated by the current deal is going to be a priority for governments of all stripes over the next few years. A serious backlog of lorries in the likes of Calais should help.
Only by repudiating Brexit
The current Government line is that red tape is good for you
They'll never let us back into the EU because it will give us such an enormous competitive edge that it'll bankrupt whole industries.
On topic, yes, the PM and government have done well.
Off topic, the government, and the Foreign Office in particular, have just overturned centuries of precedent, all because Boris Johnson screwed up, I take back all those nice things I said in 2020 about Dominic Raab.
What I have found really strange is that our vaccines for the flu have been relatively ineffective over the years, better some than others and dependent upon a fair amount of guesswork as to what the dominant strand is going to be in any particular year. So far, the success rate with vaccines against Covid seems to be much, much higher and a variety of different techniques have all produced pretty similar results.
Has our flu efforts just been half-hearted and underfunded, has the wall of money thrown at Covid produced some genuinely new breakthroughs, or have we just been surprisingly lucky? I get the impression that the world has learned a huge amount about the spread and DNA of viruses through this pandemic. Hopefully this will spill into other areas once the immediate panic is over.
"With a customs border in the Irish Sea, the UK becomes the first country in the world not to be able to freely trade with itself. Let that sink in as Johnson crows about his deal ..."
What about the Canary Islands? They're a part of Spain but outside the EU customs union? The GB-NI barriers will probably be more substantial in some areas, but I wouldn't say the UK is the first country ever to do that.
Is that true Re canary Islands? I can only see they are outside VAT harmonisation area
Maybe Heligoland (former outpost of the British Empire) is an example...
There are a number of examples. It is far, far from unprecedented and normally due to historical quirks or geography.
Incidentally yes Heligoland is specifically one. It is recognised as part of Germany and a territory of the EU but not covered by the EU's customs rules.
Other examples: Faroe Islands, Greenland, French overseas territories, the German territory of Busingen, Italian Livigno, Italian Campione d'Italia, Italina waters of Lake Lugano, Neterlands Antilles, Spain's Ceuta and Spain's Mililla.
So all in all it was a really, really dumb argument to suggest it was a world first.
That seems a really bad example of how it started ... How it's going.
He's making the same point in both Tweets.
Oh no he’s not.
Christmas? It's behind you...
FOM Erasmus Anyone giving a fcuk what fishermen think Credibility of Scottish Tories Access to a pool of recruits for care home work Respect for the promises of HMG No border in the Irish Sea
All behind us, feel free to add to the pile. (at least one of these things may never have existed)
You forgot
#NoDealSNP and #NoDealNicola
Not sure if Tories fixating on no deal is quite the winning strategy they think it is when only a few short weeks ago their dear leader was stating that no deal would be 'wonderful for Britain' and 'allow us to do whatever we want'. Ye don't think Lyin' Boris was lyin' d'ye?!
Still, carry on yooning, it seems to have been working marvellously well for you thus far.
Vaccine rollout will be the big story of 2021. Unfortunately (predictions follow) - it is not going to go smoothly.
The target of getting 25m at risk population by April will be missed. The logistical challenges are considerable and this govt's delivery record questionable. Vaccine will end up being wasted. It will be hard to identify the right people. There will be another IT debacle.
But most importantly - the manufacturers will not make the promised orders at the promised time - they are already missing them. We will see political pressure to help certain countries first regardless of existing orders.
Lockdown 3 will be lifted too early and as a result we will have Lockdown 4. Calls to vaccinate health workers earlier will intensify. Sadly as many people will die of COVID in 2021 in the UK as in 2020.
The bright news is that the vaccine will work and life will return to normality by next Winter. The economy will come roaring back once the virus is beaten.
In domestic politics, Boris Johnson will come under pressure from the ERG to seize the opportunities of Brexit, such as they are. To head off criticism, he will reshuffle his cabinet and make Priti Patel chancellor.
Relations with the EU will, after an initial honeymoon period, deteriorate as both sides claim the other is not respecting the deal. Both sides will make legal threats. To increase the UK's leverage, Boris Johnson will aggressively pursue a US trade deal, exacerbating relations with Europe.
Brexit will however increasingly come to be accepted by the majority. Starmer will pick a fight with Tony Blair/Alastair Campbell and demote anyone suggesting the UK should rejoin.
Overall 2021 will not be the tonic of a year people are hoping for. The struggle against the virus will consume most of it.
You're a bundle of cheer!
One thing - I really don't understand your prediction on COVID deaths if you also think the vaccine will be effective. It will take a serious change in the nature of the virus for this to happen given the demographics of who it kills. Vaccine delays may impact how soon we can start opening up and get back to normal. It's going to have to start killing under 70s in significant numbers for it to beat 2020 on deaths isn't it?
Think it depends how long the vaccine will take to roll out. Plus remember vaccinated people will still die from COVID and most people still haven't got the disease yet.
I think this Winter will be really bad. More people in hospital with COVID now than at start of March lockdown + a more virulent strain + we aren't yet in national lockdown.
We have better treatments but I think likely 2nd wave will be worse.
I wouldn't be quite so pessimistic, but think that you are closer to the truth than the Daily Express, "back to normal by Feb" headlines.
Then there is the massive legacy to deal with. Lots of disability alongside all the deaths. The massive waiting lists and backlogs of other diseases*, the closed businesses that will never re-open, reduced tax receipts for both business and personal tax, and masses and masses of government debt. The big cloud may be that perhaps the virus ain't done with mutating just yet.
* 70% fewer diagnoses of diabetes type 2 this year for example.
Normal is never coming back, at least not for me. For example, my firm has got out of its London leases retain one building. We’re all working at home 3/5 from next year. We’re not alone. That’s a lot of sandwiches not bought.
Retail likewise needs to up its online offer or go to the wall. Apart from food 95% of my spend has been online and almost exclusively with free delivery or free pick up.
For us it is 95% including food. Getting registered with Able and Cole just before they stopped taking new customers was very fortunate.
On topic, yes, the PM and government have done well.
Off topic, the government, and the Foreign Office in particular, have just overturned centuries of precedent, all because Boris Johnson screwed up, I take back all those nice things I said in 2020 about Dominic Raab.
Poor Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe has been well and truly fucked over by Boris Johnson once more.
The entire Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe/Johnson saga on its own is an absolutely object lesson in why Johnson is totally unfit for high office. If an object lesson were needed.
What I have found really strange is that our vaccines for the flu have been relatively ineffective over the years, better some than others and dependent upon a fair amount of guesswork as to what the dominant strand is going to be in any particular year. So far, the success rate with vaccines against Covid seems to be much, much higher and a variety of different techniques have all produced pretty similar results.
Has our flu efforts just been half-hearted and underfunded, has the wall of money thrown at Covid produced some genuinely new breakthroughs, or have we just been surprisingly lucky? I get the impression that the world has learned a huge amount about the spread and DNA of viruses through this pandemic. Hopefully this will spill into other areas once the immediate panic is over.
There's this theory, espoused by some derided by others, that one of the benefits from global warming is milder winters which have put a check on flu season.
On topic, yes, the PM and government have done well.
Off topic, the government, and the Foreign Office in particular, have just overturned centuries of precedent, all because Boris Johnson screwed up, I take back all those nice things I said in 2020 about Dominic Raab.
Poor Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe has been well and truly fucked over by Boris Johnson once more.
The entire Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe/Johnson saga on its own is an absolutely object lesson in why Johnson is totally unfit for high office. If an object lesson were needed.
Bulldust.
Its an example of Iran being twunts. They would have done the same thing with or without Johnson.
"With a customs border in the Irish Sea, the UK becomes the first country in the world not to be able to freely trade with itself. Let that sink in as Johnson crows about his deal ..."
What about the Canary Islands? They're a part of Spain but outside the EU customs union? The GB-NI barriers will probably be more substantial in some areas, but I wouldn't say the UK is the first country ever to do that.
Is that true Re canary Islands? I can only see they are outside VAT harmonisation area
Ah yes I stand corrected, however there are other examples too although they're on a much smaller scale than NI, but they do exist.
Ceuta, Melilla, and German/Italian enclaves in Switzerland are all outside of the customs union. In the latter cases, it makes sense to be a part of the Swiss customs territory to avoid border checks with Switzerland since you must go through Switzerland to reach Germany/Italy respectively. Not too dissimilar to NI, but obviously nowhere near the same scale.
What I have found really strange is that our vaccines for the flu have been relatively ineffective over the years, better some than others and dependent upon a fair amount of guesswork as to what the dominant strand is going to be in any particular year. So far, the success rate with vaccines against Covid seems to be much, much higher and a variety of different techniques have all produced pretty similar results.
Has our flu efforts just been half-hearted and underfunded, has the wall of money thrown at Covid produced some genuinely new breakthroughs, or have we just been surprisingly lucky? I get the impression that the world has learned a huge amount about the spread and DNA of viruses through this pandemic. Hopefully this will spill into other areas once the immediate panic is over.
Proving once again, in case it were needed, that necessity is the mother of invention.
On topic, yes, the PM and government have done well.
Off topic, the government, and the Foreign Office in particular, have just overturned centuries of precedent, all because Boris Johnson screwed up, I take back all those nice things I said in 2020 about Dominic Raab.
Poor Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe has been well and truly fucked over by Boris Johnson once more.
The entire Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe/Johnson saga on its own is an absolutely object lesson in why Johnson is totally unfit for high office. If an object lesson were needed.
Bulldust.
Its an example of Iran being twunts. They would have done the same thing with or without Johnson.
They would have been able to claim the UK government had admitted she broke Iranian law around journalism when she hadn't?
On topic, yes, the PM and government have done well.
Off topic, the government, and the Foreign Office in particular, have just overturned centuries of precedent, all because Boris Johnson screwed up, I take back all those nice things I said in 2020 about Dominic Raab.
Vaccine rollout will be the big story of 2021. Unfortunately (predictions follow) - it is not going to go smoothly.
The target of getting 25m at risk population by April will be missed. The logistical challenges are considerable and this govt's delivery record questionable. Vaccine will end up being wasted. It will be hard to identify the right people. There will be another IT debacle.
But most importantly - the manufacturers will not make the promised orders at the promised time - they are already missing them. We will see political pressure to help certain countries first regardless of existing orders.
Lockdown 3 will be lifted too early and as a result we will have Lockdown 4. Calls to vaccinate health workers earlier will intensify. Sadly as many people will die of COVID in 2021 in the UK as in 2020.
The bright news is that the vaccine will work and life will return to normality by next Winter. The economy will come roaring back once the virus is beaten.
In domestic politics, Boris Johnson will come under pressure from the ERG to seize the opportunities of Brexit, such as they are. To head off criticism, he will reshuffle his cabinet and make Priti Patel chancellor.
Relations with the EU will, after an initial honeymoon period, deteriorate as both sides claim the other is not respecting the deal. Both sides will make legal threats. To increase the UK's leverage, Boris Johnson will aggressively pursue a US trade deal, exacerbating relations with Europe.
Brexit will however increasingly come to be accepted by the majority. Starmer will pick a fight with Tony Blair/Alastair Campbell and demote anyone suggesting the UK should rejoin.
Overall 2021 will not be the tonic of a year people are hoping for. The struggle against the virus will consume most of it.
You're a bundle of cheer!
One thing - I really don't understand your prediction on COVID deaths if you also think the vaccine will be effective. It will take a serious change in the nature of the virus for this to happen given the demographics of who it kills. Vaccine delays may impact how soon we can start opening up and get back to normal. It's going to have to start killing under 70s in significant numbers for it to beat 2020 on deaths isn't it?
Think it depends how long the vaccine will take to roll out. Plus remember vaccinated people will still die from COVID and most people still haven't got the disease yet.
I think this Winter will be really bad. More people in hospital with COVID now than at start of March lockdown + a more virulent strain + we aren't yet in national lockdown.
We have better treatments but I think likely 2nd wave will be worse.
I wouldn't be quite so pessimistic, but think that you are closer to the truth than the Daily Express, "back to normal by Feb" headlines.
Then there is the massive legacy to deal with. Lots of disability alongside all the deaths. The massive waiting lists and backlogs of other diseases*, the closed businesses that will never re-open, reduced tax receipts for both business and personal tax, and masses and masses of government debt. The big cloud may be that perhaps the virus ain't done with mutating just yet.
* 70% fewer diagnoses of diabetes type 2 this year for example.
Normal is never coming back, at least not for me. For example, my firm has got out of its London leases retain one building. We’re all working at home 3/5 from next year. We’re not alone. That’s a lot of sandwiches not bought.
Retail likewise needs to up its online offer or go to the wall. Apart from food 95% of my spend has been online and almost exclusively with free delivery or free pick up.
The move online is now unstoppable. A few challenges though: 1. How to operate a pick model. Supermarkets take orders online and then pay someone to walk round the shop picking orders. People then complain about cross-offs and substitutes as "I ordered a week ago" - the picker can only pick what is there the same as if you went round the store in person. Or you could shut the store and operate as a warehouse but the same problem is there.
Alternately run centralised warehouses and have local pick points, which is how the likes of Currys are operating in a "closed shop but you can collect" environment. In effect the retail estates of so many of these chains isn't just worthless, it actively costs them money.
2. Online loses money. Until the start of the pandemic each online shop cost the retailer between £5 and £10. The more they do online the more money it costs them - and there's only so many efficiencies the extra volume can unlock. You could try and charge people the actual delivery cost and they would refuse it. This is a big problem for anyone who isn't Amazon - they can afford to make a huge loss delivering things as the rest of their empire is profitable.
3.Strategically the move online absolutely fucks our economy. We are a service led shopping economy built on moving people to places to work and shop and consume. If they don't need to travel as much to work then less need to spend £lots on twatty coffee in expensive offices and shopping. How do we employ all the people who used to service our "needs" when we long since decided to sell off our capacity to actually make things?
Is it DEFINITELY unstoppable? Can we definitively draw that conclusion until restrictions are lifted? Retail therapy will still be a thing. Physically wanting to handle purchases will still be a thing. Wanting to get out of the house will still be a thing. Socialising will still be a thing.
I think it's all still speculation at this point. There are lots of reasons given for why there maybe permanent shifts. But until life's back to normal we can't really know. Especially if it loses money!
I'm not saying stores will disappear overnight! But the move to online has been ongoing for the best part of a decade in retail and was growing at around 40% a year every year BEFORE the pandemic.
Gentle reminder that whilst economics matter, if they were the whole deal the UK would've voted 85% to stay in. Politics, identity, these things are also important.
That seems a really bad example of how it started ... How it's going.
He's making the same point in both Tweets.
Oh no he’s not.
Christmas? It's behind you...
FOM Erasmus Anyone giving a fcuk what fishermen think Credibility of Scottish Tories Access to a pool of recruits for care home work Respect for the promises of HMG No border in the Irish Sea
All behind us, feel free to add to the pile. (at least one of these things may never have existed)
Vaccine rollout will be the big story of 2021. Unfortunately (predictions follow) - it is not going to go smoothly.
The target of getting 25m at risk population by April will be missed. The logistical challenges are considerable and this govt's delivery record questionable. Vaccine will end up being wasted. It will be hard to identify the right people. There will be another IT debacle.
But most importantly - the manufacturers will not make the promised orders at the promised time - they are already missing them. We will see political pressure to help certain countries first regardless of existing orders.
Lockdown 3 will be lifted too early and as a result we will have Lockdown 4. Calls to vaccinate health workers earlier will intensify. Sadly as many people will die of COVID in 2021 in the UK as in 2020.
The bright news is that the vaccine will work and life will return to normality by next Winter. The economy will come roaring back once the virus is beaten.
In domestic politics, Boris Johnson will come under pressure from the ERG to seize the opportunities of Brexit, such as they are. To head off criticism, he will reshuffle his cabinet and make Priti Patel chancellor.
Relations with the EU will, after an initial honeymoon period, deteriorate as both sides claim the other is not respecting the deal. Both sides will make legal threats. To increase the UK's leverage, Boris Johnson will aggressively pursue a US trade deal, exacerbating relations with Europe.
Brexit will however increasingly come to be accepted by the majority. Starmer will pick a fight with Tony Blair/Alastair Campbell and demote anyone suggesting the UK should rejoin.
Overall 2021 will not be the tonic of a year people are hoping for. The struggle against the virus will consume most of it.
You're a bundle of cheer!
One thing - I really don't understand your prediction on COVID deaths if you also think the vaccine will be effective. It will take a serious change in the nature of the virus for this to happen given the demographics of who it kills. Vaccine delays may impact how soon we can start opening up and get back to normal. It's going to have to start killing under 70s in significant numbers for it to beat 2020 on deaths isn't it?
Think it depends how long the vaccine will take to roll out. Plus remember vaccinated people will still die from COVID and most people still haven't got the disease yet.
I think this Winter will be really bad. More people in hospital with COVID now than at start of March lockdown + a more virulent strain + we aren't yet in national lockdown.
We have better treatments but I think likely 2nd wave will be worse.
I wouldn't be quite so pessimistic, but think that you are closer to the truth than the Daily Express, "back to normal by Feb" headlines.
Then there is the massive legacy to deal with. Lots of disability alongside all the deaths. The massive waiting lists and backlogs of other diseases*, the closed businesses that will never re-open, reduced tax receipts for both business and personal tax, and masses and masses of government debt. The big cloud may be that perhaps the virus ain't done with mutating just yet.
* 70% fewer diagnoses of diabetes type 2 this year for example.
Normal is never coming back, at least not for me. For example, my firm has got out of its London leases retain one building. We’re all working at home 3/5 from next year. We’re not alone. That’s a lot of sandwiches not bought.
Retail likewise needs to up its online offer or go to the wall. Apart from food 95% of my spend has been online and almost exclusively with free delivery or free pick up.
The move online is now unstoppable. A few challenges though: 1. How to operate a pick model. Supermarkets take orders online and then pay someone to walk round the shop picking orders. People then complain about cross-offs and substitutes as "I ordered a week ago" - the picker can only pick what is there the same as if you went round the store in person. Or you could shut the store and operate as a warehouse but the same problem is there.
Alternately run centralised warehouses and have local pick points, which is how the likes of Currys are operating in a "closed shop but you can collect" environment. In effect the retail estates of so many of these chains isn't just worthless, it actively costs them money.
2. Online loses money. Until the start of the pandemic each online shop cost the retailer between £5 and £10. The more they do online the more money it costs them - and there's only so many efficiencies the extra volume can unlock. You could try and charge people the actual delivery cost and they would refuse it. This is a big problem for anyone who isn't Amazon - they can afford to make a huge loss delivering things as the rest of their empire is profitable.
3.Strategically the move online absolutely fucks our economy. We are a service led shopping economy built on moving people to places to work and shop and consume. If they don't need to travel as much to work then less need to spend £lots on twatty coffee in expensive offices and shopping. How do we employ all the people who used to service our "needs" when we long since decided to sell off our capacity to actually make things?
I notice that online delivery charges (from Sainsbury) are edging up to £4-5 in the daytime, which seems to me fair enough - there are still some slots (late at night) which are actually free, which seems bonkers. People are ordering from home for a reason and saving petrol by doing it - I think we'd pay a fiver a time unless really hard up.
But of course it's true that large sections of the consumer service economy have been skipped this year and may not return (the fact that few people bother to buy expensive sandwiches is a GDP hit but not obviously a decline in their standard of living). It's one of the central jobs of government to help support and retrain people hit by this kind of unexpected shift, and though the "Data is her future although she doesn't know it yet" ad about ballet-dancers was unbelievably crass, it's the right general idea for people whose jobs really aren't coming back.
On topic, yes, the PM and government have done well.
Off topic, the government, and the Foreign Office in particular, have just overturned centuries of precedent, all because Boris Johnson screwed up, I take back all those nice things I said in 2020 about Dominic Raab.
Poor Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe has been well and truly fucked over by Boris Johnson once more.
The entire Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe/Johnson saga on its own is an absolutely object lesson in why Johnson is totally unfit for high office. If an object lesson were needed.
Bulldust.
Its an example of Iran being twunts. They would have done the same thing with or without Johnson.
They would have been able to claim the UK government had admitted she broke Iranian law around journalism when she hadn't?
They don't have a free and fair judiciary and it is preposterous to suggest they do.
It was a sham, we all know that and they would have invented whatever pretext they needed to do so with or without Johnson.
Anyone who puts the blame for Zaghari-Ratcliffe's situation on anyone other than the Iranians really isn't seeing the wood for the trees.
On topic, yes, the PM and government have done well.
Off topic, the government, and the Foreign Office in particular, have just overturned centuries of precedent, all because Boris Johnson screwed up, I take back all those nice things I said in 2020 about Dominic Raab.
Poor Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe has been well and truly fucked over by Boris Johnson once more.
The entire Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe/Johnson saga on its own is an absolutely object lesson in why Johnson is totally unfit for high office. If an object lesson were needed.
Bulldust.
Its an example of Iran being twunts. They would have done the same thing with or without Johnson.
They would have been able to claim the UK government had admitted she broke Iranian law around journalism when she hadn't?
They don't have a free and fair judiciary and it is preposterous to suggest they do.
It was a sham, we all know that and they would have invented whatever pretext they needed to do so with or without Johnson.
Anyone who puts the blame for Zaghari-Ratcliffe's situation on anyone other than the Iranians really isn't seeing the wood for the trees.
What I have found really strange is that our vaccines for the flu have been relatively ineffective over the years, better some than others and dependent upon a fair amount of guesswork as to what the dominant strand is going to be in any particular year. So far, the success rate with vaccines against Covid seems to be much, much higher and a variety of different techniques have all produced pretty similar results.
Has our flu efforts just been half-hearted and underfunded, has the wall of money thrown at Covid produced some genuinely new breakthroughs, or have we just been surprisingly lucky? I get the impression that the world has learned a huge amount about the spread and DNA of viruses through this pandemic. Hopefully this will spill into other areas once the immediate panic is over.
All of the above. Medical science has learned a decade’s worth of innovation this year.
On topic, yes, the PM and government have done well.
Off topic, the government, and the Foreign Office in particular, have just overturned centuries of precedent, all because Boris Johnson screwed up, I take back all those nice things I said in 2020 about Dominic Raab.
Poor Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe has been well and truly fucked over by Boris Johnson once more.
The entire Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe/Johnson saga on its own is an absolutely object lesson in why Johnson is totally unfit for high office. If an object lesson were needed.
Bulldust.
Its an example of Iran being twunts. They would have done the same thing with or without Johnson.
They would have been able to claim the UK government had admitted she broke Iranian law around journalism when she hadn't?
They don't have a free and fair judiciary and it is preposterous to suggest they do.
It was a sham, we all know that and they would have invented whatever pretext they needed to do so with or without Johnson.
Anyone who puts the blame for Zaghari-Ratcliffe's situation on anyone other than the Iranians really isn't seeing the wood for the trees.
Here comes the Boris fanboy troll.
Yawn, that really is old and tired.
I'll criticise Boris when he deserves it. I'll criticise Iran when they do.
With Zaghari-Ratcliffe the buck stops with Iran not the UK. She is an Iranian citizen in an Iranian jail because Iran lacks a free and fair judiciary. The rest is just media and pointscoring nonsense.
Nice to see a cheerful column - sometimes PB feels a bit grumpy!
That said, as a 70-year-old I view the Oxford vaccine (and the constant drumbeat of media assertions that it'll be approved imminently - if it's certain, what's keeping them?) with unease - "you will be probably 70% less likely to be infected based on a somewhat chaotic clinical trial that we rushed through" beats "you are fully vulnerable" but doesn't feel wonderful. I still hope they'll limit it to the less vulnerable.
I am not sure the MHRA would agree it was "rushed through", anymore than the FDA thought that of the Pfizer vaccine trial. Surprised that as a one time employee of a pharma company you would indulge in the type of language employed by the anti-vaxers. Perhaps you share the view of your old friend Jeremy (whom you ludicrously endorsed as a potential PM) that pharma companies should not be allowed to make profits from their risk and endeavour? One suspects that his lack of congratulations to the brilliant work of the scientists in said pharma companies is based on his hatred for anyone that does not draw a fat salary and pension form the public purse.
What I have found really strange is that our vaccines for the flu have been relatively ineffective over the years, better some than others and dependent upon a fair amount of guesswork as to what the dominant strand is going to be in any particular year. So far, the success rate with vaccines against Covid seems to be much, much higher and a variety of different techniques have all produced pretty similar results.
Has our flu efforts just been half-hearted and underfunded, has the wall of money thrown at Covid produced some genuinely new breakthroughs, or have we just been surprisingly lucky? I get the impression that the world has learned a huge amount about the spread and DNA of viruses through this pandemic. Hopefully this will spill into other areas once the immediate panic is over.
All of the above. Medical science has learned a decade’s worth of innovation this year.
Yes, its been remarkable. I seem to recall that one of @rcs1000's predictions was that what has been learned would transform medicine in the coming years.
On topic, yes, the PM and government have done well.
Off topic, the government, and the Foreign Office in particular, have just overturned centuries of precedent, all because Boris Johnson screwed up, I take back all those nice things I said in 2020 about Dominic Raab.
"With a customs border in the Irish Sea, the UK becomes the first country in the world not to be able to freely trade with itself. Let that sink in as Johnson crows about his deal ..."
What about the Canary Islands? They're a part of Spain but outside the EU customs union? The GB-NI barriers will probably be more substantial in some areas, but I wouldn't say the UK is the first country ever to do that.
Is that true Re canary Islands? I can only see they are outside VAT harmonisation area
Maybe Heligoland (former outpost of the British Empire) is an example...
There are a number of examples. It is far, far from unprecedented and normally due to historical quirks or geography.
Incidentally yes Heligoland is specifically one. It is recognised as part of Germany and a territory of the EU but not covered by the EU's customs rules.
Other examples: Faroe Islands, Greenland, French overseas territories, the German territory of Busingen, Italian Livigno, Italian Campione d'Italia, Italina waters of Lake Lugano, Neterlands Antilles, Spain's Ceuta and Spain's Mililla.
So all in all it was a really, really dumb argument to suggest it was a world first.
Fair point. Accepted. Greenland of course is a bit of a special case, win that it what one might call 'semi-independent'!
Vaccine rollout will be the big story of 2021. Unfortunately (predictions follow) - it is not going to go smoothly.
The target of getting 25m at risk population by April will be missed. The logistical challenges are considerable and this govt's delivery record questionable. Vaccine will end up being wasted. It will be hard to identify the right people. There will be another IT debacle.
But most importantly - the manufacturers will not make the promised orders at the promised time - they are already missing them. We will see political pressure to help certain countries first regardless of existing orders.
Lockdown 3 will be lifted too early and as a result we will have Lockdown 4. Calls to vaccinate health workers earlier will intensify. Sadly as many people will die of COVID in 2021 in the UK as in 2020.
The bright news is that the vaccine will work and life will return to normality by next Winter. The economy will come roaring back once the virus is beaten.
In domestic politics, Boris Johnson will come under pressure from the ERG to seize the opportunities of Brexit, such as they are. To head off criticism, he will reshuffle his cabinet and make Priti Patel chancellor.
Relations with the EU will, after an initial honeymoon period, deteriorate as both sides claim the other is not respecting the deal. Both sides will make legal threats. To increase the UK's leverage, Boris Johnson will aggressively pursue a US trade deal, exacerbating relations with Europe.
Brexit will however increasingly come to be accepted by the majority. Starmer will pick a fight with Tony Blair/Alastair Campbell and demote anyone suggesting the UK should rejoin.
Overall 2021 will not be the tonic of a year people are hoping for. The struggle against the virus will consume most of it.
You're a bundle of cheer!
One thing - I really don't understand your prediction on COVID deaths if you also think the vaccine will be effective. It will take a serious change in the nature of the virus for this to happen given the demographics of who it kills. Vaccine delays may impact how soon we can start opening up and get back to normal. It's going to have to start killing under 70s in significant numbers for it to beat 2020 on deaths isn't it?
Think it depends how long the vaccine will take to roll out. Plus remember vaccinated people will still die from COVID and most people still haven't got the disease yet.
I think this Winter will be really bad. More people in hospital with COVID now than at start of March lockdown + a more virulent strain + we aren't yet in national lockdown.
We have better treatments but I think likely 2nd wave will be worse.
I wouldn't be quite so pessimistic, but think that you are closer to the truth than the Daily Express, "back to normal by Feb" headlines.
Then there is the massive legacy to deal with. Lots of disability alongside all the deaths. The massive waiting lists and backlogs of other diseases*, the closed businesses that will never re-open, reduced tax receipts for both business and personal tax, and masses and masses of government debt. The big cloud may be that perhaps the virus ain't done with mutating just yet.
* 70% fewer diagnoses of diabetes type 2 this year for example.
Normal is never coming back, at least not for me. For example, my firm has got out of its London leases retain one building. We’re all working at home 3/5 from next year. We’re not alone. That’s a lot of sandwiches not bought.
Retail likewise needs to up its online offer or go to the wall. Apart from food 95% of my spend has been online and almost exclusively with free delivery or free pick up.
The move online is now unstoppable. A few challenges though: 1. How to operate a pick model. Supermarkets take orders online and then pay someone to walk round the shop picking orders. People then complain about cross-offs and substitutes as "I ordered a week ago" - the picker can only pick what is there the same as if you went round the store in person. Or you could shut the store and operate as a warehouse but the same problem is there.
Alternately run centralised warehouses and have local pick points, which is how the likes of Currys are operating in a "closed shop but you can collect" environment. In effect the retail estates of so many of these chains isn't just worthless, it actively costs them money.
2. Online loses money. Until the start of the pandemic each online shop cost the retailer between £5 and £10. The more they do online the more money it costs them - and there's only so many efficiencies the extra volume can unlock. You could try and charge people the actual delivery cost and they would refuse it. This is a big problem for anyone who isn't Amazon - they can afford to make a huge loss delivering things as the rest of their empire is profitable.
3.Strategically the move online absolutely fucks our economy. We are a service led shopping economy built on moving people to places to work and shop and consume. If they don't need to travel as much to work then less need to spend £lots on twatty coffee in expensive offices and shopping. How do we employ all the people who used to service our "needs" when we long since decided to sell off our capacity to actually make things?
I notice that online delivery charges (from Sainsbury) are edging up to £4-5 in the daytime, which seems to me fair enough - there are still some slots (late at night) which are actually free, which seems bonkers. People are ordering from home for a reason and saving petrol by doing it - I think we'd pay a fiver a time unless really hard up.
But of course it's true that large sections of the consumer service economy have been skipped this year and may not return (the fact that few people bother to buy expensive sandwiches is a GDP hit but not obviously a decline in their standard of living). It's one of the central jobs of government to help support and retrain people hit by this kind of unexpected shift, and though the "Data is her future although she doesn't know it yet" ad about ballet-dancers was unbelievably crass, it's the right general idea for people whose jobs really aren't coming back.
Your ballet point is illustrative. People openly mocked those stupid adverts for their literal idiocy. And yet now we have the deal we can see why they did it - the performing arts industry despite being something we excel at and project British culture with has been absolutely screwed.
Comments
It used to be a pretty simple concept - an industry knew most about that industry as thats their job. You would have a civil service or politicians to align the needs and interests of the various industries but you didn't try and tell them they were wrong.
Not any more. Fuck business, we have had enough of experts. Red Tape, pointless bureaucracy and costs have suddenly become a Good Thing, and the establishment and its political / administrative overlords don't just know more about fishing or logistics or car manufacturing than these industries, its their job to sweep aside these as "special interest groups".
So we have to cheer on jingoistic crap against foreigners to stand up for fishing AND having screwed fishing over tell the angry fisher men to set aside everything they know and instead read a report from the Institute of Government about fishing.
So is the pattern for 2021. As details of the omnishambles come out the Tories and their parrots will insist the people affected know nothing and instead should accept the benefits of the deal which despite shagging their industry and them personally was actually a Great Triumph for them and their industry according to some report.
Now they've recreated a whole bundle of it again that they can quite contently go back to campaign to cut all over again
Or to put it another way, is it a coincidence that cases, which were rising slowly, rose sharply as schools and unis went back?
2+34 = 36.
In any case, I'm guessing this is the start of the govt climbdown and there will be further closures.
#NoDealSNP and
#NoDealNicola
Unusual to say the least.
As far as I am concerned, for you to win the bet there has to be an announcement of further formalised closures for at least some year groups.
Red Tape is good for you...
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1343482437318410241
https://twitter.com/IanDunt/status/1343482569208328192
Fox jr2 seems to be thriving at KCL, despite not physically entering the place since he started. He is learning loads, enthused by his course, and looking like heading for a first going by his first term marks. Not bad for slipping in at clearing. His acting company is restarting and planning performances at Easter before taking a summer show to the Edinburgh fringe. I am impressed at his flexibility and drive.
"With a customs border in the Irish Sea, the UK becomes the first country in the world not to be able to freely trade with itself. Let that sink in as Johnson crows about his deal ..."
https://twitter.com/dw_politics/status/1343482805859323904?s=20
Schools? No idea. But as I say it seems to be consensus amongst those who aren't teachers that schools must be kept open.
Glad to hear Foxjr2 is doing OK. It’s something to hear anyone is at the moment.
Agree on the wider health impacts.
Given the weak epidemiological controls, the nature of our school buildings and the virulence of this new strain, the answer seems likely to be ‘no.’
Equally, however, closing them causes a different sort of catastrophe.
But neither is the prime consideration of the government right now.
I put up a list of pros and cons of keeping schools open yesterday, don’t know if you saw it. But one thing I’m certain of is that no Minister or civil servant is considering them objectively.
https://twitter.com/TomMcTague/status/1343484062896443393?s=20
With a bit of luck, the removal of the "EU bogeyman" will help us focus on what WE need to do......educate our workforce, make stuff the world wants....
Oh yeah. "There's a lot of angry fishing people up here". Perhaps the people who voted for Brexit then the Tories for the betterment of the fishing industry should read the Institute of Government report. That'll make it all better.
Seems some people fell down the sar-chasm.
Given the situation, online learning seems a necessary compromise to me.
The current Government line is that red tape is good for you
2. I hope the Swiss bar them from re-entry to Switzerland
3. Selfish c*nts
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1343485334789775362?s=20
But again, while it may be necessary, it will also be politically unacceptable for this lot. They will not do it unless they feel they have absolutely no other choice.
What they say in public on the other hand is another matter. One problem with modern politics is line to take is the line to take until its not.
If a Minister goes on the media and speaks openly and honestly about the challenges or that they're not certain what they'll do or advise then the media doesn't congratulate them for thinking through the challenges, instead it all becomes a story about inconsistency of messaging, u-turn ahead, uncertainty yadda yadda yadda.
The modern media infantilises debate and encourages the honest conversations to be had away from it.
Oh, the poor things. Having their luxury skiing holidays disrupted IN THE MIDDLE OF A GLOBAL PANDEMIC.
Madness.
Having dealt with the DfE for 15 years, I am however not able to. They really are that dumb.
It has never been obvious to me how losing European markets helps gain any market elsewhere.
The main drive for Brexit has always been envy, and for those struggling in left behind areas to take their revenge on their fellow countrymen who have done well in recent years. No-one hates their fellow countryman more than a "patriotic" flag waving Brexiteer.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9087305/The-volunteers-DELIBERATELY-catching-Covid.html
My son's school (private) was really very different but in fairness they had major advantages in terms of the 2 criteria I have set out. They had interactive classes as per the normal timetable, lots and lots of questions both ways in a group environment and huge amounts of material provided for the students to work on in class. The effort of the staff was pretty amazing. Had it not been for the loss of social interaction between the kids it would have been completely acceptable.
1. How to operate a pick model. Supermarkets take orders online and then pay someone to walk round the shop picking orders. People then complain about cross-offs and substitutes as "I ordered a week ago" - the picker can only pick what is there the same as if you went round the store in person. Or you could shut the store and operate as a warehouse but the same problem is there.
Alternately run centralised warehouses and have local pick points, which is how the likes of Currys are operating in a "closed shop but you can collect" environment. In effect the retail estates of so many of these chains isn't just worthless, it actively costs them money.
2. Online loses money. Until the start of the pandemic each online shop cost the retailer between £5 and £10. The more they do online the more money it costs them - and there's only so many efficiencies the extra volume can unlock. You could try and charge people the actual delivery cost and they would refuse it. This is a big problem for anyone who isn't Amazon - they can afford to make a huge loss delivering things as the rest of their empire is profitable.
3.Strategically the move online absolutely fucks our economy. We are a service led shopping economy built on moving people to places to work and shop and consume. If they don't need to travel as much to work then less need to spend £lots on twatty coffee in expensive offices and shopping. How do we employ all the people who used to service our "needs" when we long since decided to sell off our capacity to actually make things?
It seems the country is falling on the side of taking the risk of opening schools at the cost of other parts of society closing.
Not sure "catastrophe" is the right word although it is certainly catastrophic to get and die of Covid.
© Bernard Wooley
Great world power my large Kilmarnock bunnet
With no vaccine, they won't be flying or any other jollys.
Spain’s popularity seems to be made up of several factors. The decision of the students who come to the country seems to weigh less on academic factors though.
https://www.wimdu.co.uk/blog/discover-popular-erasmus-destinations
We're fifth in terms of sending students - twice as many EU students come to the UK as UK students go to the EU. Erasmus accounts for about half UK overseas student placements.
That said, as a 70-year-old I view the Oxford vaccine (and the constant drumbeat of media assertions that it'll be approved imminently - if it's certain, what's keeping them?) with unease - "you will be probably 70% less likely to be infected based on a somewhat chaotic clinical trial that we rushed through" beats "you are fully vulnerable" but doesn't feel wonderful. I still hope they'll limit it to the less vulnerable.
I think it's all still speculation at this point. There are lots of reasons given for why there maybe permanent shifts. But until life's back to normal we can't really know. Especially if it loses money!
Dog is loving it, Mrs PtP less so.
Off topic, the government, and the Foreign Office in particular, have just overturned centuries of precedent, all because Boris Johnson screwed up, I take back all those nice things I said in 2020 about Dominic Raab.
https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1343468421934174210
Poor Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe has been well and truly fucked over by Boris Johnson once more.
Has our flu efforts just been half-hearted and underfunded, has the wall of money thrown at Covid produced some genuinely new breakthroughs, or have we just been surprisingly lucky? I get the impression that the world has learned a huge amount about the spread and DNA of viruses through this pandemic. Hopefully this will spill into other areas once the immediate panic is over.
Within this table there are a number of EU examples alone that are part of an EU country but out of the EU or the Customs area: https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/business/vat/eu-vat-rules-topic/territorial-status-eu-countries-certain-territories_en
Incidentally yes Heligoland is specifically one. It is recognised as part of Germany and a territory of the EU but not covered by the EU's customs rules.
Other examples: Faroe Islands, Greenland, French overseas territories, the German territory of Busingen, Italian Livigno, Italian Campione d'Italia, Italina waters of Lake Lugano, Neterlands Antilles, Spain's Ceuta and Spain's Mililla.
So all in all it was a really, really dumb argument to suggest it was a world first.
Still, carry on yooning, it seems to have been working marvellously well for you thus far.
Its an example of Iran being twunts. They would have done the same thing with or without Johnson.
Ceuta, Melilla, and German/Italian enclaves in Switzerland are all outside of the customs union. In the latter cases, it makes sense to be a part of the Swiss customs territory to avoid border checks with Switzerland since you must go through Switzerland to reach Germany/Italy respectively. Not too dissimilar to NI, but obviously nowhere near the same scale.
https://ec.europa.eu/taxation_customs/business/vat/eu-vat-rules-topic/territorial-status-eu-countries-certain-territories_en
She’s Iranian, who was voluntarily in Iran. They can treat her as they wish, according to their own domestic law, that’s how dual citizenship works.
Gentle reminder that whilst economics matter, if they were the whole deal the UK would've voted 85% to stay in. Politics, identity, these things are also important.
But of course it's true that large sections of the consumer service economy have been skipped this year and may not return (the fact that few people bother to buy expensive sandwiches is a GDP hit but not obviously a decline in their standard of living). It's one of the central jobs of government to help support and retrain people hit by this kind of unexpected shift, and though the "Data is her future although she doesn't know it yet" ad about ballet-dancers was unbelievably crass, it's the right general idea for people whose jobs really aren't coming back.
It was a sham, we all know that and they would have invented whatever pretext they needed to do so with or without Johnson.
Anyone who puts the blame for Zaghari-Ratcliffe's situation on anyone other than the Iranians really isn't seeing the wood for the trees.
I'll criticise Boris when he deserves it. I'll criticise Iran when they do.
With Zaghari-Ratcliffe the buck stops with Iran not the UK. She is an Iranian citizen in an Iranian jail because Iran lacks a free and fair judiciary. The rest is just media and pointscoring nonsense.