Grimsby was once home to the world’s largest fishing fleet. Doubt it can be so again, but I fully support a mission to make Grimsby great again (and Peterhead, Brixham, Newlyn and Shoreham).
I don't think Grimsby folk want to go back on the boats any more than those in Mansfield want to go back down the mines. Indeed the fish processing works are quite East European, I understand.
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
I'm a LibDem. We aren't in it to win it.
Address the point. Our government will not be replacing the money invested into regions and sectors like farming. Your democratic vote bit would be fine were it not for people like HYUFD who wants to crush the Scots and anyone who isn't a White Anglican life-long Tory like he is.
What I am saying is that having voted to leave the EU people in regions will now witness the cash sucking out of their areas, scratch their heads and wonder what happened to the benefits they were promised. I don't think they will vote for Keith and his Labour Party. I don't think they will vote for the Tories who have massively led them down the garden path. I worry that they will look for more extreme solutions such as that offered by the Nigel is his Sink the Migrants Party.
I despise HYUFD and everything he represents. If the Tory Party was genuinely what HYUFD stands for I would join the Liberal Democrats immediately.
But HYUFD is HYUFD not the Party.
If cash is sucked out of the region's then I am glad we have First Past the Post - the region's should elect MPs to stand up for their region.
That is because you are a liberal and are not and never will be a Tory.
In fact even Sir Keir Starmer who is a monarchist, opposes indyref2 for the foreseeable future and is reaching out to Christians is more of a Tory than you are
A Europe only ERASMUS scheme is being replaced with a newer, potentially better global Turing scheme.
And that's supposed to be a problem? 🤔
Is it the lack of a dedication to Europe that is the issue? Or the successor being open globally that is the problem?
Global is better than Europe only.
That is perhaps the weakest, meaningless defence ever mounted on PB. You can replace anything you like with something ‘newer’ and ‘potentially better’.
By your logic, you would demolish Stonehenge or Buckingham Palace, to make way for something newer and potentially better.
If the rumours are true, much of the royal family would be quite happy to see the latter happen...
I skimmed read this, thought of Charles and got the wrong end of the stick.
I logged on this morning and to be honest it was like a remainer's wake but I do accept that this Christmas has seen an end to their dreams.
To be honest we just need to move on, some will never do so, but I suspect the vast majority will be pleased it has been brought to a deal conclusion
Of course in all deals there are wins and losses but I fully expect Boris to embrace a very pro climate change pro sustainable farming policy and through climate change strike up a relationship with Joe Biden impossible with Trump
As far as Eramus is concerned my granddaughter was due to study in Italy in 2023 but I have little doubt the Turing replacement will provide opportunities not only within Europe but world wide
And as far as Boris is concerned his detractors and enemies may have to get used to him being PM for quite a long time
You'll probably get your "moving on" wish fulfilled in most sections of the Clapham Omnibus but far less so in committed, high octane places such as here.
Re your last sentence, 100% agree. Boris "80 seat" Johnson is going precisely nowhere. My biggest current political bet is on him still being PM on 1st July 2022. I'm on at an average 1.85 and I'm treating it mentally like money in the bank. You can get 1.72 or something now and I simply cannot recommend that bet enough. It's outstanding value. If you don't want to wait 18 months for the full return it will be layable back at 1.4 or less by Easter.
I agree and of course there will always be an element of those who cannot comprehend us being outside the EU but the vast majority will move on and some like myself breath a sigh of relief we have turned the page
As for Boris he has never been stronger in his party and he does seem to be rediscovering his mojo.
The climate conference is a huge world event here in Glasgow and he is the host, so I cannot imagine he will move on before that and indeed it is even possible he may contest the 2024 election
If he had been responsible for a no deal I believe he would not have lasted long into 2021
Well "moving on" from the wild and regular overestimation of the never more than 5% probability of a No Deal is something I do very much welcome. I need a new bugbear now though.
Has anyone properly congratulated on you for being right all along?
Hello, Alex. Thanks for mention. Yes, I think I've accrued as much kudos as I could reasonably have hoped. I'm happy.
Will put a bit of it back on the table now with a prediction that the Dems, contrary to what the odds are saying, will pull off the Georgia double.
Sorry to burst your bubble but you were wrong and I was right.
You were claiming that No Deal wasn't happening because the UK couldn't let it happen and so would sign EU terms and could have done so months ago.
I said if the UK stood firm then the EU wouldn't want No Deal because we hold the Aces.
On any impartial reading of the compromises the deal is far more what the UK was asking for months ago than what the EU was. So standing firm worked and you my friend were completely and utterly wrong.
There isn't a chance on earth this compromise could have been reached months ago.
The Internal Market Bill was essential to show tht Boris was just mad enough to go with No Deal. Brilliant tactics and brinksmanship. Who cares that the EU got pissed off about it for a few weeks - we were playing our hand for the biggest impact on our economy in our lives. From a point where May and Robbins had all but folded.
I don’t think many people really believe this extra bit of madness was anything other than self-deafeating.
If anything it just made the EU more anxious about how to secure a level playing field.
It also appears to have been unsupported as a move by Frost and the negotiators. Has it been determined it was a Cummings move? How much does the deal being achieved owe to his removal from Government?
So we know that Erasmus is not a part of the deal. I have read on the BBC that the fisheries deal is over 5.5 years but i am not clear what percentage reduction the EU will suffer over that period. I get the impression it varies by species now.
I think we are clear that the LPF provisions will have independent international arbitration with no role for the CJEU.
We have no tariffs and no quotas and neither does the EU so we will presumably continue to run a substantial deficit.
The deal doesn't cover mutual recognition of services, clearly its biggest drawback, but it appears that we are back in the security/Schengen systems that was causing so much angst in the days before.
The sad truth is that at over 1200 pages with 800 pages of annexes I and 99.9% of the population are never going to read it. The reports I have seen so far have been little more than headlines. Has anyone come across a reasonably detailed and neutral evaluation of the deal yet?
There’s no point you either believe it’s a great deal, because you are told by those who influence you that it is, or it’s a crap deal for similar reasons. In fact minds were made up before the deal was reached. I doubt if even more than 19% of MPs will read it let alone the public. I have seen one good thing in it though which is a replacement for EHIC and imthinkisaw something on pet passports, neither bother me personally but do many.
I think that that is overly cynical and that there will be good things and bad for either side to point to although I accept that many, perhaps most, will have their minds made up in advance regardless of the detail.
My overall impression is that the EU has backed down on a number of substantive points and the UK has backed down a bit on fish to get this over the line. It seems to me that the government has got more of what it wanted than I would have expected but the devil will be in the tedious detail and it may be that some of those headline "wins" are not in fact as good as they appear.
The most important aspect is whether this deal will drain some of the poison out of the EU/UK relationship and allow us more constructive engagement going forward. I thought Gove was spot on about that this morning.
The biggest surprise to me is that the EU settled for a win on fish and in return the UK got a much bigger win on the LPF and arbitration. What's even more odd is that they also agreed to no cross sector retaliation if/when the UK reduces EU quotas after 5.5 years with tariffs limited to fishing so it gives the government licence to do what it wants on fish after 5.5 years and just live with some level of tariffs set by the arbitration process.
Lots of continuity remainers talking about the EU keeping the UK in its orbit, but so far there is not a lot of evidence for that. Their original proposal of ECJ jurisdiction and supremacy of EU law over the treaty would have meant that for sure but the EU have given that away as well.
I'm honestly quite surprised by how well Frost and his team have done. The whole team deserve a lot of praise for what they've achieved. Getting Boris to speak to Ursula at the end to sideline Barnier for the final three issues was surely the best bit of politicking of the whole process. On the LPF and governance Frost has completely run rings around Barnier and Barnier has sold the deal to the French by giving them a victory on fish whole Ursula and Riso were in the room agreeing to UK demand for arbitration, no cross sectoral retaliation and arbitrator led tariffs.
I am glad you share my impression Max. Much of what I have read seems almost too good to be true and contains much that we were being assured was "impossible" 48 hours ago. It is this that makes me want to read into the detail a bit.
I completely agree that bypassing Barnier with Boris dealing direct with von Leyen appears to have been a masterstroke. A deal was always much more in the EU's interest than they were ready to admit and she has clearly not allowed herself to be distracted from the main chance. Credit to her too for that.
Yes, I've been very impressed by UVdL, honestly if she was commission president when Dave was negotiating the now infamous deal I think we probably would have got a deal worthy of a remain vote. Between Junker and Tusk and their love of "punishment beatings" the EU alienated a lot of people like us who would have voted to stay had the EU recognised the issues we (and many other nations) had with the existing membership terms.
I wonder how much she is taking her cue from Merkel? After all she was her candidate and it may not have been a coincidence that Merkel ditched the whole "EU elections should determine the head of the Commission thing" that she was so insistent on only 4 years ago.
Was the real story of the last 6 months that Berlin finally came to the party and asserted itself? But it had to be done covertly and indirectly.
I think that is a very insightful comment (in other words I completely agree!)
I logged on this morning and to be honest it was like a remainer's wake but I do accept that this Christmas has seen an end to their dreams.
To be honest we just need to move on, some will never do so, but I suspect the vast majority will be pleased it has been brought to a deal conclusion
Of course in all deals there are wins and losses but I fully expect Boris to embrace a very pro climate change pro sustainable farming policy and through climate change strike up a relationship with Joe Biden impossible with Trump
As far as Eramus is concerned my granddaughter was due to study in Italy in 2023 but I have little doubt the Turing replacement will provide opportunities not only within Europe but world wide
And as far as Boris is concerned his detractors and enemies may have to get used to him being PM for quite a long time
You'll probably get your "moving on" wish fulfilled in most sections of the Clapham Omnibus but far less so in committed, high octane places such as here.
Re your last sentence, 100% agree. Boris "80 seat" Johnson is going precisely nowhere. My biggest current political bet is on him still being PM on 1st July 2022. I'm on at an average 1.85 and I'm treating it mentally like money in the bank. You can get 1.72 or something now and I simply cannot recommend that bet enough. It's outstanding value. If you don't want to wait 18 months for the full return it will be layable back at 1.4 or less by Easter.
I agree and of course there will always be an element of those who cannot comprehend us being outside the EU but the vast majority will move on and some like myself breath a sigh of relief we have turned the page
As for Boris he has never been stronger in his party and he does seem to be rediscovering his mojo.
The climate conference is a huge world event here in Glasgow and he is the host, so I cannot imagine he will move on before that and indeed it is even possible he may contest the 2024 election
If he had been responsible for a no deal I believe he would not have lasted long into 2021
Well "moving on" from the wild and regular overestimation of the never more than 5% probability of a No Deal is something I do very much welcome. I need a new bugbear now though.
Has anyone properly congratulated on you for being right all along?
Hello, Alex. Thanks for mention. Yes, I think I've accrued as much kudos as I could reasonably have hoped. I'm happy.
Will put a bit of it back on the table now with a prediction that the Dems, contrary to what the odds are saying, will pull off the Georgia double.
Sorry to burst your bubble but you were wrong and I was right.
You were claiming that No Deal wasn't happening because the UK couldn't let it happen and so would sign EU terms and could have done so months ago.
I said if the UK stood firm then the EU wouldn't want No Deal because we hold the Aces.
On any impartial reading of the compromises the deal is far more what the UK was asking for months ago than what the EU was. So standing firm worked and you my friend were completely and utterly wrong.
There isn't a chance on earth this compromise could have been reached months ago.
The Internal Market Bill was essential to show tht Boris was just mad enough to go with No Deal. Brilliant tactics and brinksmanship. Who cares that the EU got pissed off about it for a few weeks - we were playing our hand for the biggest impact on our economy in our lives. From a point where May and Robbins had all but folded.
Absolutely!
While everyone else was losing their heads saying that it was making a deal harder, because of nonsense about breaking an agreement recently signed yadda yadda yadda ... You and I seemed two of the few people to recognise that the EU demands on the LPF were what were really crashing the chances of a deal and they needed to take us seriously.
On the day of the IMB being published I believe we both said it was a masterstroke that made a deal more likely. I'm pleased history is on our side.
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Exactly , just as Scotland's money is used to fund South East infrastructure and then the tossers say they are subsidising us because we get back 50%-60% of our money sent to London. Real bargain.
Mistake for Lab to bang on about Erasmus I suspect. Not relevant to most people's lives.
Are they banging on about it? I have reservations about leaving Erasmus, but the only people I see banging about it are Remainers who need a grievance to prove they were “right”*
*(They were and are right, but not especially about Erasmus).
Quite right - it is not Labour as far as I can see.
I hope Starmer finds something concrete to attack that will resonate more widely.
The North (and the Midlands) have been ignored by both Parties for a very long time.
He needs to start there.
As @YBarddCwsc reminds us, there is no evidence that Labour actually “gets” what to do with economically backward regions. Indeed, the reverse.
I don't think it is true that Labour ignored the North, but their strategy of directing more public spending to those areas arguably failed both from a political point of view (they weren't thanked at the ballot box) and an economic one (those areas are still poor). Economic geography is not favourable to areas outside of southern England, unfortunately - there is an arc of prosperity running from SE England down to Northern Italy and most of the UK is outside it. Ireland shows one way to make a previously poor region become prosperous - via EU integration and a responsive government - but the UK seems set on an opposite path. I suspect the North will only get poorer.
Grimsby was once home to the world’s largest fishing fleet. Doubt it can be so again, but I fully support a mission to make Grimsby great again (and Peterhead, Brixham, Newlyn and Shoreham).
Surely it was the Icelandic Cod Wars which did for Grimsby? Not 'the EU', although, TBF, that didn't help.
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
I'm a LibDem. We aren't in it to win it.
Address the point. Our government will not be replacing the money invested into regions and sectors like farming. Your democratic vote bit would be fine were it not for people like HYUFD who wants to crush the Scots and anyone who isn't a White Anglican life-long Tory like he is.
What I am saying is that having voted to leave the EU people in regions will now witness the cash sucking out of their areas, scratch their heads and wonder what happened to the benefits they were promised. I don't think they will vote for Keith and his Labour Party. I don't think they will vote for the Tories who have massively led them down the garden path. I worry that they will look for more extreme solutions such as that offered by the Nigel is his Sink the Migrants Party.
I despise HYUFD and everything he represents. If the Tory Party was genuinely what HYUFD stands for I would join the Liberal Democrats immediately.
But HYUFD is HYUFD not the Party.
If cash is sucked out of the region's then I am glad we have First Past the Post - the region's should elect MPs to stand up for their region.
Under FPTP regions do elect MPs who stand up for their region. HYUFD then tells them to bugger off.
As he puts it, the only way paupers in the regions can have any cash is to elect a Tory MP.
Obviously a Tory government with a majority of 80 will prioritise pork and investment for the seats that elected a Tory MP to retain that majority and those seats, that is just politics, you reward your supporters
Grimsby was once home to the world’s largest fishing fleet. Doubt it can be so again, but I fully support a mission to make Grimsby great again (and Peterhead, Brixham, Newlyn and Shoreham).
I don't think Grimsby folk want to go back on the boats any more than those in Mansfield want to go back down the mines. Indeed the fish processing works are quite East European, I understand.
I am certainly not volunteering to do fish processing. But Grimsby is poor, and a revitalised fishing industry is very likely their only ticket to revival.
Mistake for Lab to bang on about Erasmus I suspect. Not relevant to most people's lives.
Are they banging on about it? I have reservations about leaving Erasmus, but the only people I see banging about it are Remainers who need a grievance to prove they were “right”*
*(They were and are right, but not especially about Erasmus).
Quite right - it is not Labour as far as I can see.
I hope Starmer finds something concrete to attack that will resonate more widely.
The North (and the Midlands) have been ignored by both Parties for a very long time.
He needs to start there.
As @YBarddCwsc reminds us, there is no evidence that Labour actually “gets” what to do with economically backward regions. Indeed, the reverse.
I don't think it is true that Labour ignored the North, but their strategy of directing more public spending to those areas arguably failed both from a political point of view (they weren't thanked at the ballot box) and an economic one (those areas are still poor). Economic geography is not favourable to areas outside of southern England, unfortunately - there is an arc of prosperity running from SE England down to Northern Italy and most of the UK is outside it. Ireland shows one way to make a previously poor region become prosperous - via EU integration and a responsive government - but the UK seems set on an opposite path. I suspect the North will only get poorer.
Ireland got rich as it had governments where under Fine Gael or Fianna Fail pursuing Thatcherite and low tax policies
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
I'm a LibDem. We aren't in it to win it.
Address the point. Our government will not be replacing the money invested into regions and sectors like farming. Your democratic vote bit would be fine were it not for people like HYUFD who wants to crush the Scots and anyone who isn't a White Anglican life-long Tory like he is.
What I am saying is that having voted to leave the EU people in regions will now witness the cash sucking out of their areas, scratch their heads and wonder what happened to the benefits they were promised. I don't think they will vote for Keith and his Labour Party. I don't think they will vote for the Tories who have massively led them down the garden path. I worry that they will look for more extreme solutions such as that offered by the Nigel is his Sink the Migrants Party.
The answer to these questions is that it depends on what governments we elect in the UK and what they consider to be in their own interests. To take an obvious example Boris has an 80 seat majority because of his success in demolishing the Labour red wall of seats that they had taken for granted for too long. Many of these seats were recipients of EU funds. If those funds are not replaced then they may turn red again soon enough but my guess is that they will be not for altruistic reasons but because the Tories are (unlike the Lib Dems) absolutely in it to win it.
It's also why I disagree somewhat with @kinabalu's point. I do not detect any electoral enthusiasm for either extreme in the UK. Nearly all of us accept a fairly high spending state that seeks to create equality of opportunity with limited success. Corbyn was perhaps an exception but the difference of degree between an SKS led Labour party and a Boris led Tory party does not point to anything radical in either direction.
What I would hope for, personally, is that our policies can be more directed to what we actually want rather than schemes designed to protect French farmers or German manufacturers. So our agricultural subsidies will be focused on maintaining and renewing our countryside rather than subsidising the mass production of food, we are willing to enter into other FTAs with other countries and groups even if that makes things a bit more competitive for things we currently import from Germany. These will be gains at the margins and I accept that there may be some detriments too.
You're actually agreeing with my point, David. I too am of the opinion that veering sharply away from the EU template of what a Western European political economy looks like is not on the cards because there is not the public appetite for it.
What you might be disagreeing with is my view that in practice Brexit will prove with hindsight and in the long run to have been rather pointless. We can't know or indeed have much of a clue atm but I do think this will become the consensus assessment. Especially if we spend the next several years and election cycles broadly in lockstep and seeking greater co-operation rather than creating a whole new scene.
We're not far apart and we will have to wait and see. I was pessimistic about the future of the EU for a long time but in von Leyen they may have their most important President since Delors and she just might hold it together. I hope so, I genuinely do. The EU may not have been for us but I do not dispute that it is a net good in the world.
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
The argument that the EU spent on UK projects more wisely and presciently than UK institutions will is definitely a new one on me. AFAIK a huge number of EU flag-emblazoned white elephants, like fisherfolk drama centres in Gateshead, sit gathering rust as we speak. The same is true across the EU's regions.
Mistake for Lab to bang on about Erasmus I suspect. Not relevant to most people's lives.
Are they banging on about it? I have reservations about leaving Erasmus, but the only people I see banging about it are Remainers who need a grievance to prove they were “right”*
*(They were and are right, but not especially about Erasmus).
Quite right - it is not Labour as far as I can see.
I hope Starmer finds something concrete to attack that will resonate more widely.
The North (and the Midlands) have been ignored by both Parties for a very long time.
He needs to start there.
As @YBarddCwsc reminds us, there is no evidence that Labour actually “gets” what to do with economically backward regions. Indeed, the reverse.
I don't think it is true that Labour ignored the North, but their strategy of directing more public spending to those areas arguably failed both from a political point of view (they weren't thanked at the ballot box) and an economic one (those areas are still poor). Economic geography is not favourable to areas outside of southern England, unfortunately - there is an arc of prosperity running from SE England down to Northern Italy and most of the UK is outside it. Ireland shows one way to make a previously poor region become prosperous - via EU integration and a responsive government - but the UK seems set on an opposite path. I suspect the North will only get poorer.
On current trends, yes. Labour needs to learn a new economic policy.
Clues: It is *not* about shovelling money into the non-productive part of the public sector, or about propping up failing businesses in the private sector.
Grimsby was once home to the world’s largest fishing fleet. Doubt it can be so again, but I fully support a mission to make Grimsby great again (and Peterhead, Brixham, Newlyn and Shoreham).
I don't think Grimsby folk want to go back on the boats any more than those in Mansfield want to go back down the mines. Indeed the fish processing works are quite East European, I understand.
I am certainly not volunteering to do fish processing. But Grimsby is poor, and a revitalised fishing industry is very likely their only ticket to revival.
It's been food processing that has been more important than fishing to Grimsby for a long time now.
So we know that Erasmus is not a part of the deal. I have read on the BBC that the fisheries deal is over 5.5 years but i am not clear what percentage reduction the EU will suffer over that period. I get the impression it varies by species now.
I think we are clear that the LPF provisions will have independent international arbitration with no role for the CJEU.
We have no tariffs and no quotas and neither does the EU so we will presumably continue to run a substantial deficit.
The deal doesn't cover mutual recognition of services, clearly its biggest drawback, but it appears that we are back in the security/Schengen systems that was causing so much angst in the days before.
The sad truth is that at over 1200 pages with 800 pages of annexes I and 99.9% of the population are never going to read it. The reports I have seen so far have been little more than headlines. Has anyone come across a reasonably detailed and neutral evaluation of the deal yet?
There’s no point you either believe it’s a great deal, because you are told by those who influence you that it is, or it’s a crap deal for similar reasons. In fact minds were made up before the deal was reached. I doubt if even more than 19% of MPs will read it let alone the public. I have seen one good thing in it though which is a replacement for EHIC and imthinkisaw something on pet passports, neither bother me personally but do many.
I think that that is overly cynical and that there will be good things and bad for either side to point to although I accept that many, perhaps most, will have their minds made up in advance regardless of the detail.
My overall impression is that the EU has backed down on a number of substantive points and the UK has backed down a bit on fish to get this over the line. It seems to me that the government has got more of what it wanted than I would have expected but the devil will be in the tedious detail and it may be that some of those headline "wins" are not in fact as good as they appear.
The most important aspect is whether this deal will drain some of the poison out of the EU/UK relationship and allow us more constructive engagement going forward. I thought Gove was spot on about that this morning.
David , what did you think of the Government document on legal advice published the other day , mainly redacted but following sounds interesting, unusual for counsel to threaten to withdraw especially given it was government. They must have been told some huge porkies to be concerned about misleading Lord Pentland. @DavidL
I logged on this morning and to be honest it was like a remainer's wake but I do accept that this Christmas has seen an end to their dreams.
To be honest we just need to move on, some will never do so, but I suspect the vast majority will be pleased it has been brought to a deal conclusion
Of course in all deals there are wins and losses but I fully expect Boris to embrace a very pro climate change pro sustainable farming policy and through climate change strike up a relationship with Joe Biden impossible with Trump
As far as Eramus is concerned my granddaughter was due to study in Italy in 2023 but I have little doubt the Turing replacement will provide opportunities not only within Europe but world wide
And as far as Boris is concerned his detractors and enemies may have to get used to him being PM for quite a long time
You'll probably get your "moving on" wish fulfilled in most sections of the Clapham Omnibus but far less so in committed, high octane places such as here.
Re your last sentence, 100% agree. Boris "80 seat" Johnson is going precisely nowhere. My biggest current political bet is on him still being PM on 1st July 2022. I'm on at an average 1.85 and I'm treating it mentally like money in the bank. You can get 1.72 or something now and I simply cannot recommend that bet enough. It's outstanding value. If you don't want to wait 18 months for the full return it will be layable back at 1.4 or less by Easter.
I agree and of course there will always be an element of those who cannot comprehend us being outside the EU but the vast majority will move on and some like myself breath a sigh of relief we have turned the page
As for Boris he has never been stronger in his party and he does seem to be rediscovering his mojo.
The climate conference is a huge world event here in Glasgow and he is the host, so I cannot imagine he will move on before that and indeed it is even possible he may contest the 2024 election
If he had been responsible for a no deal I believe he would not have lasted long into 2021
Well "moving on" from the wild and regular overestimation of the never more than 5% probability of a No Deal is something I do very much welcome. I need a new bugbear now though.
Don't fret Kinabalu I still think we haver quite sometime to go before both Trump and Brexit are put to bed, so you have time to find a new bugbear.
Thanks for kind thoughts, kjh. But tbh, not sure I agree and I don't really want to agree either. Trump I see fading quickly. Made a real dick of himself since 3/11 and once the trappings of POTUS have gone, he'll be the Wizard of Oz with the American people, even including lots of his base, as Dorothy. Hunch says he and clan stay out of jail but go politically quiet. Perhaps those 2 things will be linked. For the orange-hued conman extraordinaire a future of golf & groping awaits. Worse fates, I suppose.
As for Brexit, while it will remain of interest to many, including me, I think the heat will go out of it as a political issue. Like I say, 'waste of time', apart from for Boris Johnson who surfed to power & glory on the back of it, will be more the long term settled assessment than boon or disaster.
I logged on this morning and to be honest it was like a remainer's wake but I do accept that this Christmas has seen an end to their dreams.
To be honest we just need to move on, some will never do so, but I suspect the vast majority will be pleased it has been brought to a deal conclusion
Of course in all deals there are wins and losses but I fully expect Boris to embrace a very pro climate change pro sustainable farming policy and through climate change strike up a relationship with Joe Biden impossible with Trump
As far as Eramus is concerned my granddaughter was due to study in Italy in 2023 but I have little doubt the Turing replacement will provide opportunities not only within Europe but world wide
And as far as Boris is concerned his detractors and enemies may have to get used to him being PM for quite a long time
You'll probably get your "moving on" wish fulfilled in most sections of the Clapham Omnibus but far less so in committed, high octane places such as here.
Re your last sentence, 100% agree. Boris "80 seat" Johnson is going precisely nowhere. My biggest current political bet is on him still being PM on 1st July 2022. I'm on at an average 1.85 and I'm treating it mentally like money in the bank. You can get 1.72 or something now and I simply cannot recommend that bet enough. It's outstanding value. If you don't want to wait 18 months for the full return it will be layable back at 1.4 or less by Easter.
I agree and of course there will always be an element of those who cannot comprehend us being outside the EU but the vast majority will move on and some like myself breath a sigh of relief we have turned the page
As for Boris he has never been stronger in his party and he does seem to be rediscovering his mojo.
The climate conference is a huge world event here in Glasgow and he is the host, so I cannot imagine he will move on before that and indeed it is even possible he may contest the 2024 election
If he had been responsible for a no deal I believe he would not have lasted long into 2021
Well "moving on" from the wild and regular overestimation of the never more than 5% probability of a No Deal is something I do very much welcome. I need a new bugbear now though.
Has anyone properly congratulated on you for being right all along?
Not just Brexiteers. I said all along that I thought this was playacting from Johnson and that we would have a deal.
I wish I shared Alex's confidence about Georgia. As many of you know, I'm on Jon Ossoff at 2:1 from before November but I'm not oozing a lot of confidence.
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
I'm a LibDem. We aren't in it to win it.
Address the point. Our government will not be replacing the money invested into regions and sectors like farming. Your democratic vote bit would be fine were it not for people like HYUFD who wants to crush the Scots and anyone who isn't a White Anglican life-long Tory like he is.
What I am saying is that having voted to leave the EU people in regions will now witness the cash sucking out of their areas, scratch their heads and wonder what happened to the benefits they were promised. I don't think they will vote for Keith and his Labour Party. I don't think they will vote for the Tories who have massively led them down the garden path. I worry that they will look for more extreme solutions such as that offered by the Nigel is his Sink the Migrants Party.
I despise HYUFD and everything he represents. If the Tory Party was genuinely what HYUFD stands for I would join the Liberal Democrats immediately.
But HYUFD is HYUFD not the Party.
If cash is sucked out of the region's then I am glad we have First Past the Post - the region's should elect MPs to stand up for their region.
That is because you are a liberal and are not and never will be a Tory.
In fact even Sir Keir Starmer who is a monarchist, opposes indyref2 for the foreseeable future and is reaching out to Christians is more of a Tory than you are
Yes that is all true.
But the true Tory party died in the 19th century and the Conservatives have been a mix of liberals and Tories since the 19th century so go cry me a river.
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
I'm a LibDem. We aren't in it to win it.
Address the point. Our government will not be replacing the money invested into regions and sectors like farming. Your democratic vote bit would be fine were it not for people like HYUFD who wants to crush the Scots and anyone who isn't a White Anglican life-long Tory like he is.
What I am saying is that having voted to leave the EU people in regions will now witness the cash sucking out of their areas, scratch their heads and wonder what happened to the benefits they were promised. I don't think they will vote for Keith and his Labour Party. I don't think they will vote for the Tories who have massively led them down the garden path. I worry that they will look for more extreme solutions such as that offered by the Nigel is his Sink the Migrants Party.
I despise HYUFD and everything he represents. If the Tory Party was genuinely what HYUFD stands for I would join the Liberal Democrats immediately.
But HYUFD is HYUFD not the Party.
If cash is sucked out of the region's then I am glad we have First Past the Post - the region's should elect MPs to stand up for their region.
That is because you are a liberal and are not and never will be a Tory.
In fact even Sir Keir Starmer who is a monarchist, opposes indyref2 for the foreseeable future and is reaching out to Christians is more of a Tory than you are
Yes that is all true.
But the true Tory party died in the 19th century and the Conservatives have been a mix of liberals and Tories since the 19th century so go cry me a river.
The Tory Party remains a pro monarchy party that opposes Scottish independence, I would even vote for Starmer over you.
In fact apart from being centre right on economics and pro Brexit you have more in common with the SNP and Corbynites than the Tories on most other issues
Mistake for Lab to bang on about Erasmus I suspect. Not relevant to most people's lives.
Nor is fishing.
But the Tories have been banging on about little else for months.
A moment of tactical and strategic genius, keep the media and politicians across Europe focused on £60m worth of fish while both sides come to a really good agreement on the LPF and governance under that shroud.
Ultimately we gave up on fish meaning Barnier and Macron got their big win. In return we're out of ECJ jurisdiction, no longer under EU law, have got post arbitration tariffs, arbitrator set tariff levels, almost no cross sectoral retaliation, no cross sectoral retaliation for fishing, almost total third nation agricultural export rights, fully curtailed free movement of people, the foundation of a trusted trader scheme for agricultural and semi-manufactured goods and further talks on mutual recognition for services.
It's actually a really good deal and all it cost was £60m worth of fishing rights we get back in 5.5 years.
I logged on this morning and to be honest it was like a remainer's wake but I do accept that this Christmas has seen an end to their dreams.
To be honest we just need to move on, some will never do so, but I suspect the vast majority will be pleased it has been brought to a deal conclusion
Of course in all deals there are wins and losses but I fully expect Boris to embrace a very pro climate change pro sustainable farming policy and through climate change strike up a relationship with Joe Biden impossible with Trump
As far as Eramus is concerned my granddaughter was due to study in Italy in 2023 but I have little doubt the Turing replacement will provide opportunities not only within Europe but world wide
And as far as Boris is concerned his detractors and enemies may have to get used to him being PM for quite a long time
You'll probably get your "moving on" wish fulfilled in most sections of the Clapham Omnibus but far less so in committed, high octane places such as here.
Re your last sentence, 100% agree. Boris "80 seat" Johnson is going precisely nowhere. My biggest current political bet is on him still being PM on 1st July 2022. I'm on at an average 1.85 and I'm treating it mentally like money in the bank. You can get 1.72 or something now and I simply cannot recommend that bet enough. It's outstanding value. If you don't want to wait 18 months for the full return it will be layable back at 1.4 or less by Easter.
I agree and of course there will always be an element of those who cannot comprehend us being outside the EU but the vast majority will move on and some like myself breath a sigh of relief we have turned the page
As for Boris he has never been stronger in his party and he does seem to be rediscovering his mojo.
The climate conference is a huge world event here in Glasgow and he is the host, so I cannot imagine he will move on before that and indeed it is even possible he may contest the 2024 election
If he had been responsible for a no deal I believe he would not have lasted long into 2021
Well "moving on" from the wild and regular overestimation of the never more than 5% probability of a No Deal is something I do very much welcome. I need a new bugbear now though.
Has anyone properly congratulated on you for being right all along?
Hello, Alex. Thanks for mention. Yes, I think I've accrued as much kudos as I could reasonably have hoped. I'm happy.
Will put a bit of it back on the table now with a prediction that the Dems, contrary to what the odds are saying, will pull off the Georgia double.
Sorry to burst your bubble but you were wrong and I was right.
You were claiming that No Deal wasn't happening because the UK couldn't let it happen and so would sign EU terms and could have done so months ago.
I said if the UK stood firm then the EU wouldn't want No Deal because we hold the Aces.
On any impartial reading of the compromises the deal is far more what the UK was asking for months ago than what the EU was. So standing firm worked and you my friend were completely and utterly wrong.
There isn't a chance on earth this compromise could have been reached months ago.
The Internal Market Bill was essential to show tht Boris was just mad enough to go with No Deal. Brilliant tactics and brinksmanship. Who cares that the EU got pissed off about it for a few weeks - we were playing our hand for the biggest impact on our economy in our lives. From a point where May and Robbins had all but folded.
I don’t think many people really believe this extra bit of madness was anything other than self-deafeating.
If anything it just made the EU more anxious about how to secure a level playing field.
You have "I think" in your corner.
I have the outcome in mine. (And 25 years experience as an international negotiator under my belt.)
Mistake for Lab to bang on about Erasmus I suspect. Not relevant to most people's lives.
Are they banging on about it? I have reservations about leaving Erasmus, but the only people I see banging about it are Remainers who need a grievance to prove they were “right”*
*(They were and are right, but not especially about Erasmus).
Quite right - it is not Labour as far as I can see.
I hope Starmer finds something concrete to attack that will resonate more widely.
The North (and the Midlands) have been ignored by both Parties for a very long time.
He needs to start there.
As @YBarddCwsc reminds us, there is no evidence that Labour actually “gets” what to do with economically backward regions. Indeed, the reverse.
I don't think it is true that Labour ignored the North, but their strategy of directing more public spending to those areas arguably failed both from a political point of view (they weren't thanked at the ballot box) and an economic one (those areas are still poor). Economic geography is not favourable to areas outside of southern England, unfortunately - there is an arc of prosperity running from SE England down to Northern Italy and most of the UK is outside it. Ireland shows one way to make a previously poor region become prosperous - via EU integration and a responsive government - but the UK seems set on an opposite path. I suspect the North will only get poorer.
On current trends, yes. Labour needs to learn a new economic policy.
Clues: It is *not* about shovelling money into the non-productive part of the public sector, or about propping up failing businesses in the private sector.
I agree with you, although these areas also need more government spending in areas like transport infrastructure and education and training. What they need most is real political devolution. Ireland wouldn't be richer than the UK if it were still run from London.
I logged on this morning and to be honest it was like a remainer's wake but I do accept that this Christmas has seen an end to their dreams.
To be honest we just need to move on, some will never do so, but I suspect the vast majority will be pleased it has been brought to a deal conclusion
Of course in all deals there are wins and losses but I fully expect Boris to embrace a very pro climate change pro sustainable farming policy and through climate change strike up a relationship with Joe Biden impossible with Trump
As far as Eramus is concerned my granddaughter was due to study in Italy in 2023 but I have little doubt the Turing replacement will provide opportunities not only within Europe but world wide
And as far as Boris is concerned his detractors and enemies may have to get used to him being PM for quite a long time
You'll probably get your "moving on" wish fulfilled in most sections of the Clapham Omnibus but far less so in committed, high octane places such as here.
Re your last sentence, 100% agree. Boris "80 seat" Johnson is going precisely nowhere. My biggest current political bet is on him still being PM on 1st July 2022. I'm on at an average 1.85 and I'm treating it mentally like money in the bank. You can get 1.72 or something now and I simply cannot recommend that bet enough. It's outstanding value. If you don't want to wait 18 months for the full return it will be layable back at 1.4 or less by Easter.
I agree and of course there will always be an element of those who cannot comprehend us being outside the EU but the vast majority will move on and some like myself breath a sigh of relief we have turned the page
As for Boris he has never been stronger in his party and he does seem to be rediscovering his mojo.
The climate conference is a huge world event here in Glasgow and he is the host, so I cannot imagine he will move on before that and indeed it is even possible he may contest the 2024 election
If he had been responsible for a no deal I believe he would not have lasted long into 2021
Well "moving on" from the wild and regular overestimation of the never more than 5% probability of a No Deal is something I do very much welcome. I need a new bugbear now though.
Has anyone properly congratulated on you for being right all along?
Hello, Alex. Thanks for mention. Yes, I think I've accrued as much kudos as I could reasonably have hoped. I'm happy.
Will put a bit of it back on the table now with a prediction that the Dems, contrary to what the odds are saying, will pull off the Georgia double.
Sorry to burst your bubble but you were wrong and I was right.
You were claiming that No Deal wasn't happening because the UK couldn't let it happen and so would sign EU terms and could have done so months ago.
I said if the UK stood firm then the EU wouldn't want No Deal because we hold the Aces.
On any impartial reading of the compromises the deal is far more what the UK was asking for months ago than what the EU was. So standing firm worked and you my friend were completely and utterly wrong.
There isn't a chance on earth this compromise could have been reached months ago.
The Internal Market Bill was essential to show tht Boris was just mad enough to go with No Deal. Brilliant tactics and brinksmanship. Who cares that the EU got pissed off about it for a few weeks - we were playing our hand for the biggest impact on our economy in our lives. From a point where May and Robbins had all but folded.
I don’t think many people really believe this extra bit of madness was anything other than self-deafeating.
If anything it just made the EU more anxious about how to secure a level playing field.
You have "I think" in your corner.
I have the outcome in mine. (And 25 years experience as an international negotiator under my belt.)
But you were the poster who kept suggesting we print a big cheque and rip it up in front of Barnier’s face.
I’ll reserve my opinion thanks. As someone mentions above, even Frost thought it was a shit idea.
I logged on this morning and to be honest it was like a remainer's wake but I do accept that this Christmas has seen an end to their dreams.
To be honest we just need to move on, some will never do so, but I suspect the vast majority will be pleased it has been brought to a deal conclusion
Of course in all deals there are wins and losses but I fully expect Boris to embrace a very pro climate change pro sustainable farming policy and through climate change strike up a relationship with Joe Biden impossible with Trump
As far as Eramus is concerned my granddaughter was due to study in Italy in 2023 but I have little doubt the Turing replacement will provide opportunities not only within Europe but world wide
And as far as Boris is concerned his detractors and enemies may have to get used to him being PM for quite a long time
You'll probably get your "moving on" wish fulfilled in most sections of the Clapham Omnibus but far less so in committed, high octane places such as here.
Re your last sentence, 100% agree. Boris "80 seat" Johnson is going precisely nowhere. My biggest current political bet is on him still being PM on 1st July 2022. I'm on at an average 1.85 and I'm treating it mentally like money in the bank. You can get 1.72 or something now and I simply cannot recommend that bet enough. It's outstanding value. If you don't want to wait 18 months for the full return it will be layable back at 1.4 or less by Easter.
I agree and of course there will always be an element of those who cannot comprehend us being outside the EU but the vast majority will move on and some like myself breath a sigh of relief we have turned the page
As for Boris he has never been stronger in his party and he does seem to be rediscovering his mojo.
The climate conference is a huge world event here in Glasgow and he is the host, so I cannot imagine he will move on before that and indeed it is even possible he may contest the 2024 election
If he had been responsible for a no deal I believe he would not have lasted long into 2021
Well "moving on" from the wild and regular overestimation of the never more than 5% probability of a No Deal is something I do very much welcome. I need a new bugbear now though.
Has anyone properly congratulated on you for being right all along?
Hello, Alex. Thanks for mention. Yes, I think I've accrued as much kudos as I could reasonably have hoped. I'm happy.
Will put a bit of it back on the table now with a prediction that the Dems, contrary to what the odds are saying, will pull off the Georgia double.
Sorry to burst your bubble but you were wrong and I was right.
You were claiming that No Deal wasn't happening because the UK couldn't let it happen and so would sign EU terms and could have done so months ago.
I said if the UK stood firm then the EU wouldn't want No Deal because we hold the Aces.
On any impartial reading of the compromises the deal is far more what the UK was asking for months ago than what the EU was. So standing firm worked and you my friend were completely and utterly wrong.
There isn't a chance on earth this compromise could have been reached months ago.
The Internal Market Bill was essential to show tht Boris was just mad enough to go with No Deal. Brilliant tactics and brinksmanship. Who cares that the EU got pissed off about it for a few weeks - we were playing our hand for the biggest impact on our economy in our lives. From a point where May and Robbins had all but folded.
Nonsense. It was a wake up call to the EU what Brexit torys would do, hence Eu negotiated harder and stuck out for the ratchet clause, which was a key win for them in this negotiation.
I doubt even the Government would agree with some of the eulogies about the brilliance of their various negotiating tactics put forward by some this morning. I suspect in reality they would admit that they were constantly living right on the edge of the limit of risk taking, and on a number of occasions went too far and had to rapidly scramble to recover the situation. On balance they no doubt think they did well, but they wouldn't kid themselves they got everything right.
Something which is evident from the various in depth "how the deal was done" pieces in various papers this morning. Pieces which no doubt are leaning heavily on Govt sources for their detail.
Mistake for Lab to bang on about Erasmus I suspect. Not relevant to most people's lives.
Are they banging on about it? I have reservations about leaving Erasmus, but the only people I see banging about it are Remainers who need a grievance to prove they were “right”*
*(They were and are right, but not especially about Erasmus).
Quite right - it is not Labour as far as I can see.
I hope Starmer finds something concrete to attack that will resonate more widely.
The North (and the Midlands) have been ignored by both Parties for a very long time.
He needs to start there.
As @YBarddCwsc reminds us, there is no evidence that Labour actually “gets” what to do with economically backward regions. Indeed, the reverse.
I don't think it is true that Labour ignored the North, but their strategy of directing more public spending to those areas arguably failed both from a political point of view (they weren't thanked at the ballot box) and an economic one (those areas are still poor). Economic geography is not favourable to areas outside of southern England, unfortunately - there is an arc of prosperity running from SE England down to Northern Italy and most of the UK is outside it. Ireland shows one way to make a previously poor region become prosperous - via EU integration and a responsive government - but the UK seems set on an opposite path. I suspect the North will only get poorer.
On current trends, yes. Labour needs to learn a new economic policy.
Clues: It is *not* about shovelling money into the non-productive part of the public sector, or about propping up failing businesses in the private sector.
I agree with you, although these areas also need more government spending in areas like transport infrastructure and education and training. What they need most is real political devolution. Ireland wouldn't be richer than the UK if it were still run from London.
Yes. Absolutely. Transport; Skills; Devolution.
The Tories don’t get it either. Still clinging on to supply-side dogma from the 80s.
Now we have the freedom to Do As We Please As A Sovereign Nation (subject to terms and conditions), lots of people will be arguing for the radical changes they wanted all along. Because otherwise this whole thing has been tragically pointless, hasn't it?
I'm reminded of the Anglo-Soviet alliance of World War 2. How well did that last in peacetime?
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
I'm a LibDem. We aren't in it to win it.
Address the point. Our government will not be replacing the money invested into regions and sectors like farming. Your democratic vote bit would be fine were it not for people like HYUFD who wants to crush the Scots and anyone who isn't a White Anglican life-long Tory like he is.
What I am saying is that having voted to leave the EU people in regions will now witness the cash sucking out of their areas, scratch their heads and wonder what happened to the benefits they were promised. I don't think they will vote for Keith and his Labour Party. I don't think they will vote for the Tories who have massively led them down the garden path. I worry that they will look for more extreme solutions such as that offered by the Nigel is his Sink the Migrants Party.
I despise HYUFD and everything he represents. If the Tory Party was genuinely what HYUFD stands for I would join the Liberal Democrats immediately.
But HYUFD is HYUFD not the Party.
If cash is sucked out of the region's then I am glad we have First Past the Post - the region's should elect MPs to stand up for their region.
That is because you are a liberal and are not and never will be a Tory.
In fact even Sir Keir Starmer who is a monarchist, opposes indyref2 for the foreseeable future and is reaching out to Christians is more of a Tory than you are
Yes that is all true.
But the true Tory party died in the 19th century and the Conservatives have been a mix of liberals and Tories since the 19th century so go cry me a river.
The Tory Party remains a pro monarchy party that opposes Scottish independence, I would even vote for Starmer over you.
In fact apart from being centre right on economics and pro Brexit you have more in common with the SNP and Corbynites than the Tories on most other issues
"Apart from being centre right" in common with Corbynites?
What kind of madness is this? Being centre right is the antithesis of Corbynism.
You are the Blue Corbynite not me. I don't tell you or anyone else to "fuck off and join another party" like you do. You are the intolerant blue Corbynite who values party purity over all else.
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
I'm a LibDem. We aren't in it to win it.
Address the point. Our government will not be replacing the money invested into regions and sectors like farming. Your democratic vote bit would be fine were it not for people like HYUFD who wants to crush the Scots and anyone who isn't a White Anglican life-long Tory like he is.
What I am saying is that having voted to leave the EU people in regions will now witness the cash sucking out of their areas, scratch their heads and wonder what happened to the benefits they were promised. I don't think they will vote for Keith and his Labour Party. I don't think they will vote for the Tories who have massively led them down the garden path. I worry that they will look for more extreme solutions such as that offered by the Nigel is his Sink the Migrants Party.
I despise HYUFD and everything he represents. If the Tory Party was genuinely what HYUFD stands for I would join the Liberal Democrats immediately.
But HYUFD is HYUFD not the Party.
If cash is sucked out of the region's then I am glad we have First Past the Post - the region's should elect MPs to stand up for their region.
That is because you are a liberal and are not and never will be a Tory.
In fact even Sir Keir Starmer who is a monarchist, opposes indyref2 for the foreseeable future and is reaching out to Christians is more of a Tory than you are
Yes that is all true.
But the true Tory party died in the 19th century and the Conservatives have been a mix of liberals and Tories since the 19th century so go cry me a river.
The Tory Party remains a pro monarchy party that opposes Scottish independence, I would even vote for Starmer over you.
In fact apart from being centre right on economics and pro Brexit you have more in common with the SNP and Corbynites than the Tories on most other issues
"Apart from being centre right" in common with Corbynites?
What kind of madness is this? Being centre right is the antithesis of Corbynism.
You are the Blue Corbynite not me. I don't tell you or anyone else to "fuck off and join another party" like you do. You are the intolerant blue Corbynite who values party purity over all else.
You are a republican who wants to break up the Union and an atheist, you are far closer to Corbynites and the SNP on those issues than you are even to Starmer Labour let alone the Tories
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
I'm a LibDem. We aren't in it to win it.
Address the point. Our government will not be replacing the money invested into regions and sectors like farming. Your democratic vote bit would be fine were it not for people like HYUFD who wants to crush the Scots and anyone who isn't a White Anglican life-long Tory like he is.
What I am saying is that having voted to leave the EU people in regions will now witness the cash sucking out of their areas, scratch their heads and wonder what happened to the benefits they were promised. I don't think they will vote for Keith and his Labour Party. I don't think they will vote for the Tories who have massively led them down the garden path. I worry that they will look for more extreme solutions such as that offered by the Nigel is his Sink the Migrants Party.
I despise HYUFD and everything he represents. If the Tory Party was genuinely what HYUFD stands for I would join the Liberal Democrats immediately.
But HYUFD is HYUFD not the Party.
If cash is sucked out of the region's then I am glad we have First Past the Post - the region's should elect MPs to stand up for their region.
That is because you are a liberal and are not and never will be a Tory.
In fact even Sir Keir Starmer who is a monarchist, opposes indyref2 for the foreseeable future and is reaching out to Christians is more of a Tory than you are
Yes that is all true.
But the true Tory party died in the 19th century and the Conservatives have been a mix of liberals and Tories since the 19th century so go cry me a river.
The Tory Party remains a pro monarchy party that opposes Scottish independence, I would even vote for Starmer over you.
In fact apart from being centre right on economics and pro Brexit you have more in common with the SNP and Corbynites than the Tories on most other issues
"Apart from being centre right" in common with Corbynites?
What kind of madness is this? Being centre right is the antithesis of Corbynism.
You are the Blue Corbynite not me. I don't tell you or anyone else to "fuck off and join another party" like you do. You are the intolerant blue Corbynite who values party purity over all else.
It’s Boxing Day, and Philip T and HYUFD are having one of their now-standard arguments about exactly who is a Tory.
So our Christmas truce has passed and we're all back to arguing about Brexit.
What next? Scottish Independence?
The arguments about Brexit will go on ad infinitum amongst those who are really exercised by it, but the country at large can move on. Most of the general population neither knows nor cares about fishing rights or the Erasmus scheme. I anticipate teething problems at the border in the New Year, but once they're sorted out the issue will fade into the background.
Scottish independence is a different matter. That pantomime will keep playing on a continuous loop until the nationalists win one of their future referendums and get away. Victory in the second one is a strong possibility for them, but even if they lose again they're so well dug in that the argument will never go away. If indyref 2 goes down then the campaign for indyref 3 starts the following morning.
Lol. Even leaving aside the ridiculous link to financial support - how does he think we can magically increase vaccine rollout by that extent? If we could, we would/should regardless of rate of transmission.
So our Christmas truce has passed and we're all back to arguing about Brexit.
What next? Scottish Independence?
The arguments about Brexit will go on ad infinitum amongst those who are really exercised by it, but the country at large can move on. Most of the general population neither knows nor cares about fishing rights or the Erasmus scheme. I anticipate teething problems at the border in the New Year, but once they're sorted out the issue will fade into the background.
Scottish independence is a different matter. That pantomime will keep playing on a continuous loop until the nationalists win one of their future referendums and get away. Victory in the second one is a strong possibility for them, but even if they lose again they're so well dug in that the argument will never go away. If indyref 2 goes down then the campaign for indyref 3 starts the following morning.
No it doesn't, Yes to independence from Canada got 49% in the second Quebec referendum in 1995 and 25 years later there has still not been a third as devomax for Quebec resolved the issue.
Mistake for Lab to bang on about Erasmus I suspect. Not relevant to most people's lives.
Are they banging on about it? I have reservations about leaving Erasmus, but the only people I see banging about it are Remainers who need a grievance to prove they were “right”*
*(They were and are right, but not especially about Erasmus).
Quite right - it is not Labour as far as I can see.
I hope Starmer finds something concrete to attack that will resonate more widely.
The North (and the Midlands) have been ignored by both Parties for a very long time.
He needs to start there.
As @YBarddCwsc reminds us, there is no evidence that Labour actually “gets” what to do with economically backward regions. Indeed, the reverse.
Does anyone know? And if the solutions are long term, and our politicians get rewarded for short termism, how will it ever change even if they do?
Mistake for Lab to bang on about Erasmus I suspect. Not relevant to most people's lives.
Nor is fishing.
But the Tories have been banging on about little else for months.
You don't see the advantages in keeping Barnier, Macron and the Media interested in the minutae of fisheries while the grown ups (Boris, Frost, UvD, probably Merkel and others) sort out the big picture?
Even with a deal, we’re still broke. With the exception of the wildcard of Scottish independence, I suspect politics will be determined by that bitter reality rather than the EU relationship.
It's as boring and dry as fuck. Legalese with lots of cross-references and dry technocratise.
No big surprises so far. It basically makes it illegal under international law for either the UK or EU to apply any customs duties, tarriffs or taxes to each other's products, which is pretty clear, and allows for spot checks on customs. I think once traders have adjusted to this we should be fine - it'll all be pretty free flowing.
I think short term visits by business travellers up to seven days (conferences, meetings etc) are fine too except for one or two member states. Annex in the back.
I might just skip to the governance and disputes section.
I doubt even the Government would agree with some of the eulogies about the brilliance of their various negotiating tactics put forward by some this morning. I suspect in reality they would admit that they were constantly living right on the edge of the limit of risk taking, and on a number of occasions went too far and had to rapidly scramble to recover the situation. On balance they no doubt think they did well, but they wouldn't kid themselves they got everything right.
Something which is evident from the various in depth "how the deal was done" pieces in various papers this morning. Pieces which no doubt are leaning heavily on Govt sources for their detail.
People are so clearly believing what they wanted to believe. On both sides.
It's as boring and dry as fuck. Legalese with lots of cross-references and dry technocratise.
No big surprises so far. It basically makes it illegal under international law for either the UK or EU to apply any customs duties, tarriffs or taxes to each other's products, which is pretty clear, and allows for spot checks on customs. I think once traders have adjusted to this we should be fine - it'll all be pretty free flowing.
I think short term visits by business travellers up to seven days (conferences, meetings etc) are fine too except for one or two member states. Annex in the back.
I might just skip to the governance and disputes section.
Am glad to report that Mrs Walker seems to be through the worst of COVID, and, fingers crossed, so is Master (18 months) Walker.
My self and Miss (6 years old) Walker have tested negative. But we are all confined until 1 January earliest.
Obviously Christmas was rather grim, but friends delivered a socially distanced roast chicken and lobster(!).
Thank-you PBers for the many kind wishes.
On topic: Keir is obviously right to vote for the deal, even though it sticks in my Remainer craw. Voting against is tantamount to voting No Deal or a vote against Brexit itself.
Brexit is now dead - thank god - I hope we can get on with discussing with the post-pandemic, post-Brexit Britain of 2030 should look like.
Good news re Covid
Has Boris got a much better deal than Theresa May? Or was hers just a withdrawal agreement, so the two cant be compared?
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
I'm a LibDem. We aren't in it to win it.
Address the point. Our government will not be replacing the money invested into regions and sectors like farming. Your democratic vote bit would be fine were it not for people like HYUFD who wants to crush the Scots and anyone who isn't a White Anglican life-long Tory like he is.
What I am saying is that having voted to leave the EU people in regions will now witness the cash sucking out of their areas, scratch their heads and wonder what happened to the benefits they were promised. I don't think they will vote for Keith and his Labour Party. I don't think they will vote for the Tories who have massively led them down the garden path. I worry that they will look for more extreme solutions such as that offered by the Nigel is his Sink the Migrants Party.
I despise HYUFD and everything he represents. If the Tory Party was genuinely what HYUFD stands for I would join the Liberal Democrats immediately.
But HYUFD is HYUFD not the Party.
If cash is sucked out of the region's then I am glad we have First Past the Post - the region's should elect MPs to stand up for their region.
That is because you are a liberal and are not and never will be a Tory.
In fact even Sir Keir Starmer who is a monarchist, opposes indyref2 for the foreseeable future and is reaching out to Christians is more of a Tory than you are
Yes that is all true.
But the true Tory party died in the 19th century and the Conservatives have been a mix of liberals and Tories since the 19th century so go cry me a river.
The Tory Party remains a pro monarchy party that opposes Scottish independence, I would even vote for Starmer over you.
In fact apart from being centre right on economics and pro Brexit you have more in common with the SNP and Corbynites than the Tories on most other issues
"Apart from being centre right" in common with Corbynites?
What kind of madness is this? Being centre right is the antithesis of Corbynism.
You are the Blue Corbynite not me. I don't tell you or anyone else to "fuck off and join another party" like you do. You are the intolerant blue Corbynite who values party purity over all else.
You are a republican who wants to break up the Union and an atheist, you are far closer to Corbynites and the SNP on those issues than you are even to Starmer Labour let alone the Tories
Yes I am and proud of it. What are you going to do about it?
Thankfully the party I belong to, unlike you, believes in diversity of thought, winning elections and having the biggest tent possible.
You are nothing other than a blue Corbynite who values purity over winning elections. I want to see centre right economics and liberalism implemented in practice so I will vote and campaign for whichever party can best offer that.
I think the photograph posted on here this morning of Boris with a used nappy by his feet is a real low point for this site.
I think it's meant to be takeaway chips, but the point stands.
Some people just want a fight on Boxing Day...
Yeah, CR is always looking for a grievance to get on his high horse about.
You need to get over your obsession with me. And possibly do some work too since, for a highly specialised and "busy" NHS consultant, you seem to always be on here.
It's as boring and dry as fuck. Legalese with lots of cross-references and dry technocratise.
No big surprises so far. It basically makes it illegal under international law for either the UK or EU to apply any customs duties, tarriffs or taxes to each other's products, which is pretty clear, and allows for spot checks on customs. I think once traders have adjusted to this we should be fine - it'll all be pretty free flowing.
I think short term visits by business travellers up to seven days (conferences, meetings etc) are fine too except for one or two member states. Annex in the back.
I might just skip to the governance and disputes section.
You should be live-tweeting this.
I'd lose the remainder of what few followers I already have!!
Mistake for Lab to bang on about Erasmus I suspect. Not relevant to most people's lives.
Are they banging on about it? I have reservations about leaving Erasmus, but the only people I see banging about it are Remainers who need a grievance to prove they were “right”*
*(They were and are right, but not especially about Erasmus).
Quite right - it is not Labour as far as I can see.
I hope Starmer finds something concrete to attack that will resonate more widely.
The North (and the Midlands) have been ignored by both Parties for a very long time.
He needs to start there.
As @YBarddCwsc reminds us, there is no evidence that Labour actually “gets” what to do with economically backward regions. Indeed, the reverse.
Does anyone know? And if the solutions are long term, and our politicians get rewarded for short termism, how will it ever change even if they do?
There is no single lever, but there are lots of things which can be largely filed under Transport, Skills, Devolution, and “Strategic Capacity Building for Industry”.
Yes, the solutions are long term. I guess if we wish to reward short-termism then we get what we get.
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
I'm a LibDem. We aren't in it to win it.
Address the point. Our government will not be replacing the money invested into regions and sectors like farming. Your democratic vote bit would be fine were it not for people like HYUFD who wants to crush the Scots and anyone who isn't a White Anglican life-long Tory like he is.
What I am saying is that having voted to leave the EU people in regions will now witness the cash sucking out of their areas, scratch their heads and wonder what happened to the benefits they were promised. I don't think they will vote for Keith and his Labour Party. I don't think they will vote for the Tories who have massively led them down the garden path. I worry that they will look for more extreme solutions such as that offered by the Nigel is his Sink the Migrants Party.
I despise HYUFD and everything he represents. If the Tory Party was genuinely what HYUFD stands for I would join the Liberal Democrats immediately.
But HYUFD is HYUFD not the Party.
If cash is sucked out of the region's then I am glad we have First Past the Post - the region's should elect MPs to stand up for their region.
That is because you are a liberal and are not and never will be a Tory.
In fact even Sir Keir Starmer who is a monarchist, opposes indyref2 for the foreseeable future and is reaching out to Christians is more of a Tory than you are
Yes that is all true.
But the true Tory party died in the 19th century and the Conservatives have been a mix of liberals and Tories since the 19th century so go cry me a river.
The Tory Party remains a pro monarchy party that opposes Scottish independence, I would even vote for Starmer over you.
In fact apart from being centre right on economics and pro Brexit you have more in common with the SNP and Corbynites than the Tories on most other issues
"Apart from being centre right" in common with Corbynites?
What kind of madness is this? Being centre right is the antithesis of Corbynism.
You are the Blue Corbynite not me. I don't tell you or anyone else to "fuck off and join another party" like you do. You are the intolerant blue Corbynite who values party purity over all else.
You are a republican who wants to break up the Union and an atheist, you are far closer to Corbynites and the SNP on those issues than you are even to Starmer Labour let alone the Tories
Yes I am and proud of it. What are you going to do about it?
Thankfully the party I belong to, unlike you, believes in diversity of thought, winning elections and having the biggest tent possible.
You are nothing other than a blue Corbynite who values purity over winning elections. I want to see centre right economics and liberalism implemented in practice so I will vote and campaign for whichever party can best offer that.
Except in most current polls there is more support for the monarchy and the Union than centre right economic policies like controlling government spending and cutting taxes for the rich and the privatisation of the railways, I support the latter too but I do not pretend they are great election winners at the moment
Just out of interest, is participation in Erasmus definitely a UK competence. Given it's a simple access for payment thing, is there anything to stop the Scottish Government from joining it for Scottish students and Scottish universities?
You are very optimistic if you think there will be any headway in challenging any aspect of the deal. 1. We know of Johnson’s announcement that “Every Tory election candidate has pledged to support my Brexit deal.” 2, We know that the Opposition, should they attempt to show how badly the UK is served by the deal the Government has struck, will be mocked and misrepresented (not to mention reminded that they voted for this deal). 3. We know of the prime minister’s willingness to lie. (Peter Stefanovich has kept track of lies told in Parliament.) 4, Our media for the most past is compliant with the government.
I think the photograph posted on here this morning of Boris with a used nappy by his feet is a real low point for this site.
I think it's meant to be takeaway chips, but the point stands.
Some people just want a fight on Boxing Day...
Yeah, CR is always looking for a grievance to get on his high horse about.
You need to get over your obsession with me. And possibly do some work too since, for a highly specialised and "busy" NHS consultant, you seem to always be on here.
Merry Christmas x
Nah, I worked Christmas last year, so off this year. Its the way we work it in my dept.
I think the photograph posted on here this morning of Boris with a used nappy by his feet is a real low point for this site.
I think it's meant to be takeaway chips, but the point stands.
Some people just want a fight on Boxing Day...
Yeah, CR is always looking for a grievance to get on his high horse about.
You need to get over your obsession with me. And possibly do some work too since, for a highly specialised and "busy" NHS consultant, you seem to always be on here.
Merry Christmas x
Lots of people have a lot of time on their hands in the absence of ability to pursue their usual leisure activities.
So we know that Erasmus is not a part of the deal. I have read on the BBC that the fisheries deal is over 5.5 years but i am not clear what percentage reduction the EU will suffer over that period. I get the impression it varies by species now.
I think we are clear that the LPF provisions will have independent international arbitration with no role for the CJEU.
We have no tariffs and no quotas and neither does the EU so we will presumably continue to run a substantial deficit.
The deal doesn't cover mutual recognition of services, clearly its biggest drawback, but it appears that we are back in the security/Schengen systems that was causing so much angst in the days before.
The sad truth is that at over 1200 pages with 800 pages of annexes I and 99.9% of the population are never going to read it. The reports I have seen so far have been little more than headlines. Has anyone come across a reasonably detailed and neutral evaluation of the deal yet?
There’s no point you either believe it’s a great deal, because you are told by those who influence you that it is, or it’s a crap deal for similar reasons. In fact minds were made up before the deal was reached. I doubt if even more than 19% of MPs will read it let alone the public. I have seen one good thing in it though which is a replacement for EHIC and imthinkisaw something on pet passports, neither bother me personally but do many.
I think that that is overly cynical and that there will be good things and bad for either side to point to although I accept that many, perhaps most, will have their minds made up in advance regardless of the detail.
My overall impression is that the EU has backed down on a number of substantive points and the UK has backed down a bit on fish to get this over the line. It seems to me that the government has got more of what it wanted than I would have expected but the devil will be in the tedious detail and it may be that some of those headline "wins" are not in fact as good as they appear.
The most important aspect is whether this deal will drain some of the poison out of the EU/UK relationship and allow us more constructive engagement going forward. I thought Gove was spot on about that this morning.
David , what did you think of the Government document on legal advice published the other day , mainly redacted but following sounds interesting, unusual for counsel to threaten to withdraw especially given it was government. They must have been told some huge porkies to be concerned about misleading Lord Pentland. @DavidL
I've missed that. The run up to Christmas was incredibly busy for me. IIRC there was a problem with representations that were made to Lord Pentland which the government did not follow up on. Parties are entitled to change their positions but counsel are not. If they have told the court something they are not allowed to assert the opposite on a subsequent occasion in the same case.
Counsel withdrawing for this reason is not particularly unusual, I have done it myself quite a few times. Similarly you can and should withdraw when a client will not take your advice and insists on persisting with a line that you consider unstateable. That has happened to me many times as well. It is more unusual in respect of the government because it inevitably becomes political and most governments will accept the advice that they are given. The UK government is usually represented by Gerry Moynihan and David Johnson these days, both of whom are extremely capable.
One of the many problems with lockdown is that there are far fewer opportunities for Faculty gossip to spread than there used to be. Hopefully that will also improve in 2021.
Judging by the twitter debates amongst the SNP loyals we're in for a divisive couple of years.
I feel sorry for those pro union voters in Scotland, who'll presumably have to keep their head down..
If Sturgeon does not win an SNP landslide at Holyrood next year and hold indyref2 with or without Westminster consent then Salmond loyalists and the nationalist hardcore will be out to topple her that is certain
I think the photograph posted on here this morning of Boris with a used nappy by his feet is a real low point for this site.
I think it's meant to be takeaway chips, but the point stands.
Some people just want a fight on Boxing Day...
Yeah, CR is always looking for a grievance to get on his high horse about.
You need to get over your obsession with me. And possibly do some work too since, for a highly specialised and "busy" NHS consultant, you seem to always be on here.
Merry Christmas x
Nah, I worked Christmas last year, so off this year. Its the way we work it in my dept.
You mean your department do the work, and you have the time off?
I logged on this morning and to be honest it was like a remainer's wake but I do accept that this Christmas has seen an end to their dreams.
To be honest we just need to move on, some will never do so, but I suspect the vast majority will be pleased it has been brought to a deal conclusion
Of course in all deals there are wins and losses but I fully expect Boris to embrace a very pro climate change pro sustainable farming policy and through climate change strike up a relationship with Joe Biden impossible with Trump
As far as Eramus is concerned my granddaughter was due to study in Italy in 2023 but I have little doubt the Turing replacement will provide opportunities not only within Europe but world wide
And as far as Boris is concerned his detractors and enemies may have to get used to him being PM for quite a long time
You'll probably get your "moving on" wish fulfilled in most sections of the Clapham Omnibus but far less so in committed, high octane places such as here.
Re your last sentence, 100% agree. Boris "80 seat" Johnson is going precisely nowhere. My biggest current political bet is on him still being PM on 1st July 2022. I'm on at an average 1.85 and I'm treating it mentally like money in the bank. You can get 1.72 or something now and I simply cannot recommend that bet enough. It's outstanding value. If you don't want to wait 18 months for the full return it will be layable back at 1.4 or less by Easter.
I agree and of course there will always be an element of those who cannot comprehend us being outside the EU but the vast majority will move on and some like myself breath a sigh of relief we have turned the page
As for Boris he has never been stronger in his party and he does seem to be rediscovering his mojo.
The climate conference is a huge world event here in Glasgow and he is the host, so I cannot imagine he will move on before that and indeed it is even possible he may contest the 2024 election
If he had been responsible for a no deal I believe he would not have lasted long into 2021
Well "moving on" from the wild and regular overestimation of the never more than 5% probability of a No Deal is something I do very much welcome. I need a new bugbear now though.
Has anyone properly congratulated on you for being right all along?
Hello, Alex. Thanks for mention. Yes, I think I've accrued as much kudos as I could reasonably have hoped. I'm happy.
Will put a bit of it back on the table now with a prediction that the Dems, contrary to what the odds are saying, will pull off the Georgia double.
Sorry to burst your bubble but you were wrong and I was right.
You were claiming that No Deal wasn't happening because the UK couldn't let it happen and so would sign EU terms and could have done so months ago.
I said if the UK stood firm then the EU wouldn't want No Deal because we hold the Aces.
On any impartial reading of the compromises the deal is far more what the UK was asking for months ago than what the EU was. So standing firm worked and you my friend were completely and utterly wrong.
There isn't a chance on earth this compromise could have been reached months ago.
The Internal Market Bill was essential to show tht Boris was just mad enough to go with No Deal. Brilliant tactics and brinksmanship. Who cares that the EU got pissed off about it for a few weeks - we were playing our hand for the biggest impact on our economy in our lives. From a point where May and Robbins had all but folded.
I don’t think many people really believe this extra bit of madness was anything other than self-deafeating.
If anything it just made the EU more anxious about how to secure a level playing field.
You have "I think" in your corner.
I have the outcome in mine. (And 25 years experience as an international negotiator under my belt.)
The outcome was months of delay and so a miserable end to 2020 and start to 2021 for millions.
I logged on this morning and to be honest it was like a remainer's wake but I do accept that this Christmas has seen an end to their dreams.
To be honest we just need to move on, some will never do so, but I suspect the vast majority will be pleased it has been brought to a deal conclusion
Of course in all deals there are wins and losses but I fully expect Boris to embrace a very pro climate change pro sustainable farming policy and through climate change strike up a relationship with Joe Biden impossible with Trump
As far as Eramus is concerned my granddaughter was due to study in Italy in 2023 but I have little doubt the Turing replacement will provide opportunities not only within Europe but world wide
And as far as Boris is concerned his detractors and enemies may have to get used to him being PM for quite a long time
You'll probably get your "moving on" wish fulfilled in most sections of the Clapham Omnibus but far less so in committed, high octane places such as here.
Re your last sentence, 100% agree. Boris "80 seat" Johnson is going precisely nowhere. My biggest current political bet is on him still being PM on 1st July 2022. I'm on at an average 1.85 and I'm treating it mentally like money in the bank. You can get 1.72 or something now and I simply cannot recommend that bet enough. It's outstanding value. If you don't want to wait 18 months for the full return it will be layable back at 1.4 or less by Easter.
I agree and of course there will always be an element of those who cannot comprehend us being outside the EU but the vast majority will move on and some like myself breath a sigh of relief we have turned the page
As for Boris he has never been stronger in his party and he does seem to be rediscovering his mojo.
The climate conference is a huge world event here in Glasgow and he is the host, so I cannot imagine he will move on before that and indeed it is even possible he may contest the 2024 election
If he had been responsible for a no deal I believe he would not have lasted long into 2021
Well "moving on" from the wild and regular overestimation of the never more than 5% probability of a No Deal is something I do very much welcome. I need a new bugbear now though.
Has anyone properly congratulated on you for being right all along?
Hello, Alex. Thanks for mention. Yes, I think I've accrued as much kudos as I could reasonably have hoped. I'm happy.
Will put a bit of it back on the table now with a prediction that the Dems, contrary to what the odds are saying, will pull off the Georgia double.
Sorry to burst your bubble but you were wrong and I was right.
You were claiming that No Deal wasn't happening because the UK couldn't let it happen and so would sign EU terms and could have done so months ago.
I said if the UK stood firm then the EU wouldn't want No Deal because we hold the Aces.
On any impartial reading of the compromises the deal is far more what the UK was asking for months ago than what the EU was. So standing firm worked and you my friend were completely and utterly wrong.
There isn't a chance on earth this compromise could have been reached months ago.
I wouldn't normally do this to you, Philip, and apologies in advance, but on this occasion it simply has to be a rather contemptuous lol.
Here's my key bit of advice and I offer it in a benign and constructive spirit. You need to replace your "card game" mental image for the negotiation with one that is not so easy to visualize but has the benefit of being accurate.
Try to picture the following - "Two sets of macro political and economic interests coming together to arrive at broadly the inevitable outcome at pretty much the inevitable time given their genuine red lines and the known modus operandi of the EU and in particular this UK Prime Minister".
I suggested the "bucket draining through 2 holes into 2 bottles" one - which I still quite like - but I'm sure it can be improved upon.
I think the photograph posted on here this morning of Boris with a used nappy by his feet is a real low point for this site.
I think it's meant to be takeaway chips, but the point stands.
Some people just want a fight on Boxing Day...
Yeah, CR is always looking for a grievance to get on his high horse about.
You need to get over your obsession with me. And possibly do some work too since, for a highly specialised and "busy" NHS consultant, you seem to always be on here.
Merry Christmas x
Lots of people have a lot of time on their hands in the absence of ability to pursue their usual leisure activities.
Yes, in a normal year, I would be at the match rather than having a sofa day with Fox jr2.
Fernandes is a great player, without him ManU would be lower mid table.
So our Christmas truce has passed and we're all back to arguing about Brexit.
What next? Scottish Independence?
The arguments about Brexit will go on ad infinitum amongst those who are really exercised by it, but the country at large can move on. Most of the general population neither knows nor cares about fishing rights or the Erasmus scheme. I anticipate teething problems at the border in the New Year, but once they're sorted out the issue will fade into the background.
Scottish independence is a different matter. That pantomime will keep playing on a continuous loop until the nationalists win one of their future referendums and get away. Victory in the second one is a strong possibility for them, but even if they lose again they're so well dug in that the argument will never go away. If indyref 2 goes down then the campaign for indyref 3 starts the following morning.
I'd have hoped the government would have got on the front foot - reform of house of lords, more devolution across England (there was some sense in what Starmer proposed - although the speech was at totally the wrong point)
Just out of interest, is participation in Erasmus definitely a UK competence. Given it's a simple access for payment thing, is there anything to stop the Scottish Government from joining it for Scottish students and Scottish universities?
Dunno is the short answer. Might it come under the ability to negotiate international agreements?
I think the photograph posted on here this morning of Boris with a used nappy by his feet is a real low point for this site.
I think it's meant to be takeaway chips, but the point stands.
Some people just want a fight on Boxing Day...
Typical that a cultist Tory like Casino cannot distinguish between a box of french fries and a nappy. Take the outrage boulder off your shoulder and see reality.
I think the photograph posted on here this morning of Boris with a used nappy by his feet is a real low point for this site.
I think it's meant to be takeaway chips, but the point stands.
Some people just want a fight on Boxing Day...
Yeah, CR is always looking for a grievance to get on his high horse about.
You need to get over your obsession with me. And possibly do some work too since, for a highly specialised and "busy" NHS consultant, you seem to always be on here.
Merry Christmas x
Lots of people have a lot of time on their hands in the absence of ability to pursue their usual leisure activities.
Yes, in a normal year, I would be at the match rather than having a sofa day with Fox jr2.
Fernandes is a great player, without him ManU would be lower mid table.
So our Christmas truce has passed and we're all back to arguing about Brexit.
What next? Scottish Independence?
The arguments about Brexit will go on ad infinitum amongst those who are really exercised by it, but the country at large can move on. Most of the general population neither knows nor cares about fishing rights or the Erasmus scheme. I anticipate teething problems at the border in the New Year, but once they're sorted out the issue will fade into the background.
Scottish independence is a different matter. That pantomime will keep playing on a continuous loop until the nationalists win one of their future referendums and get away. Victory in the second one is a strong possibility for them, but even if they lose again they're so well dug in that the argument will never go away. If indyref 2 goes down then the campaign for indyref 3 starts the following morning.
No it doesn't, Yes to independence from Canada got 49% in the second Quebec referendum in 1995 and 25 years later there has still not been a third as devomax for Quebec resolved the issue.
Mistake for Lab to bang on about Erasmus I suspect. Not relevant to most people's lives.
Nor is fishing.
But the Tories have been banging on about little else for months.
Tactically brilliant as I am sure that you will agree. Macron in particular was wanting to sign up to the punishment school and it put him in his box, well and truly.
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
I'm a LibDem. We aren't in it to win it.
Address the point. Our government will not be replacing the money invested into regions and sectors like farming. Your democratic vote bit would be fine were it not for people like HYUFD who wants to crush the Scots and anyone who isn't a White Anglican life-long Tory like he is.
What I am saying is that having voted to leave the EU people in regions will now witness the cash sucking out of their areas, scratch their heads and wonder what happened to the benefits they were promised. I don't think they will vote for Keith and his Labour Party. I don't think they will vote for the Tories who have massively led them down the garden path. I worry that they will look for more extreme solutions such as that offered by the Nigel is his Sink the Migrants Party.
I despise HYUFD and everything he represents. If the Tory Party was genuinely what HYUFD stands for I would join the Liberal Democrats immediately.
But HYUFD is HYUFD not the Party.
If cash is sucked out of the region's then I am glad we have First Past the Post - the region's should elect MPs to stand up for their region.
That is because you are a liberal and are not and never will be a Tory.
In fact even Sir Keir Starmer who is a monarchist, opposes indyref2 for the foreseeable future and is reaching out to Christians is more of a Tory than you are
Yes that is all true.
But the true Tory party died in the 19th century and the Conservatives have been a mix of liberals and Tories since the 19th century so go cry me a river.
The Tory Party remains a pro monarchy party that opposes Scottish independence, I would even vote for Starmer over you.
In fact apart from being centre right on economics and pro Brexit you have more in common with the SNP and Corbynites than the Tories on most other issues
"Apart from being centre right" in common with Corbynites?
What kind of madness is this? Being centre right is the antithesis of Corbynism.
You are the Blue Corbynite not me. I don't tell you or anyone else to "fuck off and join another party" like you do. You are the intolerant blue Corbynite who values party purity over all else.
You are a republican who wants to break up the Union and an atheist, you are far closer to Corbynites and the SNP on those issues than you are even to Starmer Labour let alone the Tories
Yes I am and proud of it. What are you going to do about it?
Thankfully the party I belong to, unlike you, believes in diversity of thought, winning elections and having the biggest tent possible.
You are nothing other than a blue Corbynite who values purity over winning elections. I want to see centre right economics and liberalism implemented in practice so I will vote and campaign for whichever party can best offer that.
Except in most current polls there is more support for the monarchy and the Union than centre right economic policies like controlling government spending and cutting taxes for the rich and the privatisation of the railways, I support the latter too but I do not pretend they are great election winners at the moment
Which is why I pick my battles.
I would like to see the end of the monarchy but it is frankly not a priority. Especially while HMQ is alive.
If Charles becomes King though then the opportunity may arise for other discussions. But I'm not holding my breath.
If we ever got a referendum on the subject I know how I'd vote. But I'm not expecting one any time soon. It's not something I prioritise at election time either.
And we have governance by elections. Not opinion polls.
So our Christmas truce has passed and we're all back to arguing about Brexit.
What next? Scottish Independence?
The arguments about Brexit will go on ad infinitum amongst those who are really exercised by it, but the country at large can move on. Most of the general population neither knows nor cares about fishing rights or the Erasmus scheme. I anticipate teething problems at the border in the New Year, but once they're sorted out the issue will fade into the background.
Scottish independence is a different matter. That pantomime will keep playing on a continuous loop until the nationalists win one of their future referendums and get away. Victory in the second one is a strong possibility for them, but even if they lose again they're so well dug in that the argument will never go away. If indyref 2 goes down then the campaign for indyref 3 starts the following morning.
No it doesn't, Yes to independence from Canada got 49% in the second Quebec referendum in 1995 and 25 years later there has still not been a third as devomax for Quebec resolved the issue.
The SNP are going nowhere, and unless they're badly weakened (and, having taken over as the dominant centre-left party, there's no sign of that happening) then they'll be in Government, either continuously or at regular intervals, until the year dot. This is the product of a very large and entrenched fraction of the electorate that has made up its mind that it wants independence, and a fragmented collection of weak, unpopular and useless opposition parties.
This isn't going to be like Quebec (besides anything else, "devomax" - whatever that turns out to be - isn't on offer, and even that wouldn't stop the loud, continuous complaints of being hard done by.) The only way anyone on either side of the border is going to get any peace is when they go.
Judging by the twitter debates amongst the SNP loyals we're in for a divisive couple of years.
I feel sorry for those pro union voters in Scotland, who'll presumably have to keep their head down..
If Sturgeon does not win an SNP landslide at Holyrood next year and hold indyref2 with or without Westminster consent then Salmond loyalists and the nationalist hardcore will be out to topple her that is certain
I cannot see the situation changing between now and May - i.e SNP landslide
So our Christmas truce has passed and we're all back to arguing about Brexit.
What next? Scottish Independence?
The arguments about Brexit will go on ad infinitum amongst those who are really exercised by it, but the country at large can move on. Most of the general population neither knows nor cares about fishing rights or the Erasmus scheme. I anticipate teething problems at the border in the New Year, but once they're sorted out the issue will fade into the background.
The problem for the government is that these first few months outside the E.U. will fix many people's view of the outcome of Brexit, before they perceive things to have "moved on", as you say. If I was the government I would be thinking incredibly hard of how to deal with, counteract or redirect from the rush of negative Brexit-related media that's going to come through in the next six to twelve months.
I logged on this morning and to be honest it was like a remainer's wake but I do accept that this Christmas has seen an end to their dreams.
To be honest we just need to move on, some will never do so, but I suspect the vast majority will be pleased it has been brought to a deal conclusion
Of course in all deals there are wins and losses but I fully expect Boris to embrace a very pro climate change pro sustainable farming policy and through climate change strike up a relationship with Joe Biden impossible with Trump
As far as Eramus is concerned my granddaughter was due to study in Italy in 2023 but I have little doubt the Turing replacement will provide opportunities not only within Europe but world wide
And as far as Boris is concerned his detractors and enemies may have to get used to him being PM for quite a long time
You'll probably get your "moving on" wish fulfilled in most sections of the Clapham Omnibus but far less so in committed, high octane places such as here.
Re your last sentence, 100% agree. Boris "80 seat" Johnson is going precisely nowhere. My biggest current political bet is on him still being PM on 1st July 2022. I'm on at an average 1.85 and I'm treating it mentally like money in the bank. You can get 1.72 or something now and I simply cannot recommend that bet enough. It's outstanding value. If you don't want to wait 18 months for the full return it will be layable back at 1.4 or less by Easter.
I agree and of course there will always be an element of those who cannot comprehend us being outside the EU but the vast majority will move on and some like myself breath a sigh of relief we have turned the page
As for Boris he has never been stronger in his party and he does seem to be rediscovering his mojo.
The climate conference is a huge world event here in Glasgow and he is the host, so I cannot imagine he will move on before that and indeed it is even possible he may contest the 2024 election
If he had been responsible for a no deal I believe he would not have lasted long into 2021
Well "moving on" from the wild and regular overestimation of the never more than 5% probability of a No Deal is something I do very much welcome. I need a new bugbear now though.
Has anyone properly congratulated on you for being right all along?
Hello, Alex. Thanks for mention. Yes, I think I've accrued as much kudos as I could reasonably have hoped. I'm happy.
Will put a bit of it back on the table now with a prediction that the Dems, contrary to what the odds are saying, will pull off the Georgia double.
Sorry to burst your bubble but you were wrong and I was right.
You were claiming that No Deal wasn't happening because the UK couldn't let it happen and so would sign EU terms and could have done so months ago.
I said if the UK stood firm then the EU wouldn't want No Deal because we hold the Aces.
On any impartial reading of the compromises the deal is far more what the UK was asking for months ago than what the EU was. So standing firm worked and you my friend were completely and utterly wrong.
There isn't a chance on earth this compromise could have been reached months ago.
I wouldn't normally do this to you, Philip, and apologies in advance, but on this occasion it simply has to be a rather contemptuous lol.
Here's my key bit of advice and I offer it in a benign and constructive spirit. You need to replace your "card game" mental image for the negotiation with one that is not so easy to visualize but has the benefit of being accurate.
Try to picture the following - "Two sets of macro political and economic interests coming together to arrive at broadly the inevitable outcome at pretty much the inevitable time given their genuine red lines and the known modus operandi of the EU and in particular this UK Prime Minister".
I suggested the "bucket draining through 2 holes into 2 bottles" one - which I still quite like - but I'm sure it can be improved upon.
Before the inevitable long discussion the two of you may want to consider the latest odds from noneoftheabovebet.
PT convinces K that he is wrong 100/1 K convinces PT that he is wrong 100/1
Neither side can be proved right or wrong. People are very predictably simply believing what they want to believe and there will be no changing views so it really doesn't matter. What will matter is how Brexit is perceived in general over the next few years. I fear and expect that Covid will give enough cover that the Brexit impact is not understood by much of the country, especially those emotionally invested in its success.
So we know that Erasmus is not a part of the deal. I have read on the BBC that the fisheries deal is over 5.5 years but i am not clear what percentage reduction the EU will suffer over that period. I get the impression it varies by species now.
I think we are clear that the LPF provisions will have independent international arbitration with no role for the CJEU.
We have no tariffs and no quotas and neither does the EU so we will presumably continue to run a substantial deficit.
The deal doesn't cover mutual recognition of services, clearly its biggest drawback, but it appears that we are back in the security/Schengen systems that was causing so much angst in the days before.
The sad truth is that at over 1200 pages with 800 pages of annexes I and 99.9% of the population are never going to read it. The reports I have seen so far have been little more than headlines. Has anyone come across a reasonably detailed and neutral evaluation of the deal yet?
There’s no point you either believe it’s a great deal, because you are told by those who influence you that it is, or it’s a crap deal for similar reasons. In fact minds were made up before the deal was reached. I doubt if even more than 19% of MPs will read it let alone the public. I have seen one good thing in it though which is a replacement for EHIC and imthinkisaw something on pet passports, neither bother me personally but do many.
I think that that is overly cynical and that there will be good things and bad for either side to point to although I accept that many, perhaps most, will have their minds made up in advance regardless of the detail.
My overall impression is that the EU has backed down on a number of substantive points and the UK has backed down a bit on fish to get this over the line. It seems to me that the government has got more of what it wanted than I would have expected but the devil will be in the tedious detail and it may be that some of those headline "wins" are not in fact as good as they appear.
The most important aspect is whether this deal will drain some of the poison out of the EU/UK relationship and allow us more constructive engagement going forward. I thought Gove was spot on about that this morning.
The biggest surprise to me is that the EU settled for a win on fish and in return the UK got a much bigger win on the LPF and arbitration. What's even more odd is that they also agreed to no cross sector retaliation if/when the UK reduces EU quotas after 5.5 years with tariffs limited to fishing so it gives the government licence to do what it wants on fish after 5.5 years and just live with some level of tariffs set by the arbitration process.
Lots of continuity remainers talking about the EU keeping the UK in its orbit, but so far there is not a lot of evidence for that. Their original proposal of ECJ jurisdiction and supremacy of EU law over the treaty would have meant that for sure but the EU have given that away as well.
I'm honestly quite surprised by how well Frost and his team have done. The whole team deserve a lot of praise for what they've achieved. Getting Boris to speak to Ursula at the end to sideline Barnier for the final three issues was surely the best bit of politicking of the whole process. On the LPF and governance Frost has completely run rings around Barnier and Barnier has sold the deal to the French by giving them a victory on fish whole Ursula and Riso were in the room agreeing to UK demand for arbitration, no cross sectoral retaliation and arbitrator led tariffs.
I am glad you share my impression Max. Much of what I have read seems almost too good to be true and contains much that we were being assured was "impossible" 48 hours ago. It is this that makes me want to read into the detail a bit.
I completely agree that bypassing Barnier with Boris dealing direct with von Leyen appears to have been a masterstroke. A deal was always much more in the EU's interest than they were ready to admit and she has clearly not allowed herself to be distracted from the main chance. Credit to her too for that.
Yes, I've been very impressed by UVdL, honestly if she was commission president when Dave was negotiating the now infamous deal I think we probably would have got a deal worthy of a remain vote. Between Junker and Tusk and their love of "punishment beatings" the EU alienated a lot of people like us who would have voted to stay had the EU recognised the issues we (and many other nations) had with the existing membership terms.
I don't think the big difference is UVdL Vs Tusk (druncker was just an embarrassment).
I think the biggest difference is they never took Cameron seriously. They never took May seriously.
Boris was the first PM since Thatcher's handbags to seriously stand up for Britain in Europe.
If in-between Thatcher and Boris we had any other PMs as good as them we may never have needed to leave.
What a load of bollocks. We never needed to leave.
As an aside as crap as Juncker was, having a competent EU President would only have been enough to make a few thousands of votes difference and it would not have changed the outcome.
Btw, it’s lovely to see that Ursula vdL who only a couple of week’s ago was being excoriated for her record in the German government is now getting lots of positive strokes. A Christmas miracle!
I logged on this morning and to be honest it was like a remainer's wake but I do accept that this Christmas has seen an end to their dreams.
To be honest we just need to move on, some will never do so, but I suspect the vast majority will be pleased it has been brought to a deal conclusion
Of course in all deals there are wins and losses but I fully expect Boris to embrace a very pro climate change pro sustainable farming policy and through climate change strike up a relationship with Joe Biden impossible with Trump
As far as Eramus is concerned my granddaughter was due to study in Italy in 2023 but I have little doubt the Turing replacement will provide opportunities not only within Europe but world wide
And as far as Boris is concerned his detractors and enemies may have to get used to him being PM for quite a long time
You'll probably get your "moving on" wish fulfilled in most sections of the Clapham Omnibus but far less so in committed, high octane places such as here.
Re your last sentence, 100% agree. Boris "80 seat" Johnson is going precisely nowhere. My biggest current political bet is on him still being PM on 1st July 2022. I'm on at an average 1.85 and I'm treating it mentally like money in the bank. You can get 1.72 or something now and I simply cannot recommend that bet enough. It's outstanding value. If you don't want to wait 18 months for the full return it will be layable back at 1.4 or less by Easter.
I agree and of course there will always be an element of those who cannot comprehend us being outside the EU but the vast majority will move on and some like myself breath a sigh of relief we have turned the page
As for Boris he has never been stronger in his party and he does seem to be rediscovering his mojo.
The climate conference is a huge world event here in Glasgow and he is the host, so I cannot imagine he will move on before that and indeed it is even possible he may contest the 2024 election
If he had been responsible for a no deal I believe he would not have lasted long into 2021
Well "moving on" from the wild and regular overestimation of the never more than 5% probability of a No Deal is something I do very much welcome. I need a new bugbear now though.
Has anyone properly congratulated on you for being right all along?
Hello, Alex. Thanks for mention. Yes, I think I've accrued as much kudos as I could reasonably have hoped. I'm happy.
Will put a bit of it back on the table now with a prediction that the Dems, contrary to what the odds are saying, will pull off the Georgia double.
Sorry to burst your bubble but you were wrong and I was right.
You were claiming that No Deal wasn't happening because the UK couldn't let it happen and so would sign EU terms and could have done so months ago.
I said if the UK stood firm then the EU wouldn't want No Deal because we hold the Aces.
On any impartial reading of the compromises the deal is far more what the UK was asking for months ago than what the EU was. So standing firm worked and you my friend were completely and utterly wrong.
There isn't a chance on earth this compromise could have been reached months ago.
I wouldn't normally do this to you, Philip, and apologies in advance, but on this occasion it simply has to be a rather contemptuous lol.
Here's my key bit of advice and I offer it in a benign and constructive spirit. You need to replace your "card game" mental image for the negotiation with one that is not so easy to visualize but has the benefit of being accurate.
Try to picture the following - "Two sets of macro political and economic interests coming together to arrive at broadly the inevitable outcome at pretty much the inevitable time given their genuine red lines and the known modus operandi of the EU and in particular this UK Prime Minister".
I suggested the "bucket draining through 2 holes into 2 bottles" one - which I still quite like - but I'm sure it can be improved upon.
Except the "broadly inevitable outcome" is NOT the one you foresaw.
Did you months ago see the EU giving up on its LPF arrangements and getting such a meaningless and trivial face saving as what it has achieved?
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
I'm a LibDem. We aren't in it to win it.
Address the point. Our government will not be replacing the money invested into regions and sectors like farming. Your democratic vote bit would be fine were it not for people like HYUFD who wants to crush the Scots and anyone who isn't a White Anglican life-long Tory like he is.
What I am saying is that having voted to leave the EU people in regions will now witness the cash sucking out of their areas, scratch their heads and wonder what happened to the benefits they were promised. I don't think they will vote for Keith and his Labour Party. I don't think they will vote for the Tories who have massively led them down the garden path. I worry that they will look for more extreme solutions such as that offered by the Nigel is his Sink the Migrants Party.
I despise HYUFD and everything he represents. If the Tory Party was genuinely what HYUFD stands for I would join the Liberal Democrats immediately.
But HYUFD is HYUFD not the Party.
If cash is sucked out of the region's then I am glad we have First Past the Post - the region's should elect MPs to stand up for their region.
Under FPTP regions do elect MPs who stand up for their region. HYUFD then tells them to bugger off.
As he puts it, the only way paupers in the regions can have any cash is to elect a Tory MP.
HYUFD isn't an MP let alone 326 of then.
Whom each constituency elects matters more than a single Blue Corbynite from Epping Forest
Blue Corbynite is simply not an accurate description. HYUFD does tend to be extreme - in his loyalty to whomever happens to be ascendant in the Tory party. That doesn’t sound much like a Corbynite to me.
Comments
In fact even Sir Keir Starmer who is a monarchist, opposes indyref2 for the foreseeable future and is reaching out to Christians is more of a Tory than you are
While everyone else was losing their heads saying that it was making a deal harder, because of nonsense about breaking an agreement recently signed yadda yadda yadda ... You and I seemed two of the few people to recognise that the EU demands on the LPF were what were really crashing the chances of a deal and they needed to take us seriously.
On the day of the IMB being published I believe we both said it was a masterstroke that made a deal more likely. I'm pleased history is on our side.
But the Tories have been banging on about little else for months.
Some people just want a fight on Boxing Day...
Labour needs to learn a new economic policy.
Clues: It is *not* about shovelling money into the non-productive part of the public sector, or about propping up failing businesses in the private sector.
https://twitter.com/MarinaJenkins_/status/1342805759608950786?s=20
@DavidL
As for Brexit, while it will remain of interest to many, including me, I think the heat will go out of it as a political issue. Like I say, 'waste of time', apart from for Boris Johnson who surfed to power & glory on the back of it, will be more the long term settled assessment than boon or disaster.
What next? Scottish Independence?
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1341913841920315392?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1341781255176790017?s=20
But the true Tory party died in the 19th century and the Conservatives have been a mix of liberals and Tories since the 19th century so go cry me a river.
In fact apart from being centre right on economics and pro Brexit you have more in common with the SNP and Corbynites than the Tories on most other issues
Ultimately we gave up on fish meaning Barnier and Macron got their big win. In return we're out of ECJ jurisdiction, no longer under EU law, have got post arbitration tariffs, arbitrator set tariff levels, almost no cross sectoral retaliation, no cross sectoral retaliation for fishing, almost total third nation agricultural export rights, fully curtailed free movement of people, the foundation of a trusted trader scheme for agricultural and semi-manufactured goods and further talks on mutual recognition for services.
It's actually a really good deal and all it cost was £60m worth of fishing rights we get back in 5.5 years.
Am back from the run, I seem to have missed the rain! Got just over 15K in this morning.
I have the outcome in mine. (And 25 years experience as an international negotiator under my belt.)
https://twitter.com/naebd/status/1342803689350848513?s=21
I’ll reserve my opinion thanks.
As someone mentions above, even Frost thought it was a shit idea.
Luckily, he's the leader of Labour in Scotland (RIP).
Something which is evident from the various in depth "how the deal was done" pieces in various papers this morning. Pieces which no doubt are leaning heavily on Govt sources for their detail.
Transport; Skills; Devolution.
The Tories don’t get it either. Still clinging on to supply-side dogma from the 80s.
I'm reminded of the Anglo-Soviet alliance of World War 2. How well did that last in peacetime?
What kind of madness is this? Being centre right is the antithesis of Corbynism.
You are the Blue Corbynite not me. I don't tell you or anyone else to "fuck off and join another party" like you do. You are the intolerant blue Corbynite who values party purity over all else.
One shouldn't confuse them if at all possible.
Love it.
Can’t wait until Big G chips in.
Scottish independence is a different matter. That pantomime will keep playing on a continuous loop until the nationalists win one of their future referendums and get away. Victory in the second one is a strong possibility for them, but even if they lose again they're so well dug in that the argument will never go away. If indyref 2 goes down then the campaign for indyref 3 starts the following morning.
It's as boring and dry as fuck. Legalese with lots of cross-references and dry technocratise.
No big surprises so far. It basically makes it illegal under international law for either the UK or EU to apply any customs duties, tarriffs or taxes to each other's products, which is pretty clear, and allows for spot checks on customs. I think once traders have adjusted to this we should be fine - it'll all be pretty free flowing.
I think short term visits by business travellers up to seven days (conferences, meetings etc) are fine too except for one or two member states. Annex in the back.
I might just skip to the governance and disputes section.
I know it's only primary school level humour but I don't get it.
Has Boris got a much better deal than Theresa May? Or was hers just a withdrawal agreement, so the two cant be compared?
Thankfully the party I belong to, unlike you, believes in diversity of thought, winning elections and having the biggest tent possible.
You are nothing other than a blue Corbynite who values purity over winning elections. I want to see centre right economics and liberalism implemented in practice so I will vote and campaign for whichever party can best offer that.
HYUFD is the Tory version of bigjohnowls and other Corbyn purists.
Speaking of SCon tweets, and on topic.
https://twitter.com/jackson_carlaw/status/997107303852670976?s=21
Merry Christmas x
I feel sorry for those pro union voters in Scotland, who'll presumably have to keep their head down..
Yes, the solutions are long term.
I guess if we wish to reward short-termism then we get what we get.
1. We know of Johnson’s announcement that “Every Tory election candidate has pledged to support my Brexit deal.”
2, We know that the Opposition, should they attempt to show how badly the UK is served by the deal the Government has struck, will be mocked and misrepresented (not to mention reminded that they voted for this deal).
3. We know of the prime minister’s willingness to lie. (Peter Stefanovich has kept track of lies told in Parliament.)
4, Our media for the most past is compliant with the government.
Counsel withdrawing for this reason is not particularly unusual, I have done it myself quite a few times. Similarly you can and should withdraw when a client will not take your advice and insists on persisting with a line that you consider unstateable. That has happened to me many times as well. It is more unusual in respect of the government because it inevitably becomes political and most governments will accept the advice that they are given. The UK government is usually represented by Gerry Moynihan and David Johnson these days, both of whom are extremely capable.
One of the many problems with lockdown is that there are far fewer opportunities for Faculty gossip to spread than there used to be. Hopefully that will also improve in 2021.
Here's my key bit of advice and I offer it in a benign and constructive spirit. You need to replace your "card game" mental image for the negotiation with one that is not so easy to visualize but has the benefit of being accurate.
Try to picture the following - "Two sets of macro political and economic interests coming together to arrive at broadly the inevitable outcome at pretty much the inevitable time given their genuine red lines and the known modus operandi of the EU and in particular this UK Prime Minister".
I suggested the "bucket draining through 2 holes into 2 bottles" one - which I still quite like - but I'm sure it can be improved upon.
Fernandes is a great player, without him ManU would be lower mid table.
It will grow and crowd out other debate. We won’t be able to talk about foreign policy etc without knowing whether we are one country or another.
In that sense the nightmare we centrists have been living since 2016 hasn’t gone away yet.
I can't see it happening from Johnson's Tories..
I would like to see the end of the monarchy but it is frankly not a priority. Especially while HMQ is alive.
If Charles becomes King though then the opportunity may arise for other discussions. But I'm not holding my breath.
If we ever got a referendum on the subject I know how I'd vote. But I'm not expecting one any time soon. It's not something I prioritise at election time either.
And we have governance by elections. Not opinion polls.
This isn't going to be like Quebec (besides anything else, "devomax" - whatever that turns out to be - isn't on offer, and even that wouldn't stop the loud, continuous complaints of being hard done by.) The only way anyone on either side of the border is going to get any peace is when they go.
Rishi is like, there goes my chances.
https://twitter.com/johnrentoul/status/1342814280391995392?s=21
About 90% of them are a joke
PT convinces K that he is wrong 100/1
K convinces PT that he is wrong 100/1
Neither side can be proved right or wrong. People are very predictably simply believing what they want to believe and there will be no changing views so it really doesn't matter. What will matter is how Brexit is perceived in general over the next few years. I fear and expect that Covid will give enough cover that the Brexit impact is not understood by much of the country, especially those emotionally invested in its success.
As an aside as crap as Juncker was, having a competent EU President would only have been enough to make a few thousands of votes difference and it would not have changed the outcome.
Did you months ago see the EU giving up on its LPF arrangements and getting such a meaningless and trivial face saving as what it has achieved?
That doesn’t sound much like a Corbynite to me.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9088577/Britain-worlds-fifth-largest-economy-overtaking-India-despite-coronavirus-recession.html