True although the Scottish government was pretending for a while that they were going to maintain their position of having EU citizens paying no fees at all whilst the English paid £9K a head to finance the whole thing. I think that madness has proven to be too extreme even for Nicola and she is backing off. Whether Universities go to the full international rate will of course be a matter for them and will no doubt depend on the market for particular courses but I have little doubt that they will be paying more.
I suspect the English (Welsh/N Irish) students paying 9K were not financing it.
A Europe only ERASMUS scheme is being replaced with a newer, potentially better global Turing scheme.
And that's supposed to be a problem? 🤔
Is it the lack of a dedication to Europe that is the issue? Or the successor being open globally that is the problem?
Global is better than Europe only.
There is no evidence that the Turing scheme is of interest to anyone else other than UK. Nor in fact that it is necessary. Some universities already have exchange arrangements with non-European ones; twenty of so years ago one of my sons, studying Economics at Lancaster had to option of, and took, a year at Rice, in Houston. Incidentally elder son had earlier had an Erasmus year in Germany as part of his Engineering degree.
A Europe only ERASMUS scheme is being replaced with a newer, potentially better global Turing scheme.
And that's supposed to be a problem? 🤔
Is it the lack of a dedication to Europe that is the issue? Or the successor being open globally that is the problem?
Global is better than Europe only.
That is perhaps the weakest, meaningless defence ever mounted on PB. You can replace anything you like with something ‘newer’ and ‘potentially better’.
By your logic, you would demolish Stonehenge or Buckingham Palace, to make way for something newer and potentially better.
To be fair Stonehenge is a bit shit, and just adds two hours on a summer drive down to Devon and Cornwall and leaves the kids and tourists disappointed it is just a few stones. I'm in favour!
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
My daughter did a year with Erasmus in Holland two years ago now and it was a great experience for her. I am sad that the next generation of students will not participate but it does appear that it is an example of the EU once again overplaying their hand. In seeking to increase the cost of participation in this way they have lost UK participation altogether which will be a considerable loss to EU students wanting to come here.
It will be interesting to see if the UK replacement will fund students both ways, that is funding for our students to enjoy a year abroad and for EU students to come here. I hope so and it would not be the worst thing if the EU realises that overpricing Erasmus is a mistake that should be reversed.
On the other hand, UK universities will be moving new EU students to international fee rates from this autumn. It varies by course and institution, but the ballpark increase is about 9k to about 20-30k. More than doubling, close to tripling for practical courses.
Fwiw, my sister (pretty senior at a major UK university) is very much in favour of stopping EU students from "freeloading" and her university is going to put the fees up overnight for new students from the EU. I expect most UK universities to follow suit.
One of their worries was that the government would allow EU students to retain domestic status as part of staying in Erasmus (something that she said was floated by the EU). She's happy that the government didn't go down that road, I guess for their students it's not a big deal to lose Erasmus becuase the uni has so many links globally for student exchanges, I expect this to be the case for most of the top universities.
So we know that Erasmus is not a part of the deal. I have read on the BBC that the fisheries deal is over 5.5 years but i am not clear what percentage reduction the EU will suffer over that period. I get the impression it varies by species now.
I think we are clear that the LPF provisions will have independent international arbitration with no role for the CJEU.
We have no tariffs and no quotas and neither does the EU so we will presumably continue to run a substantial deficit.
The deal doesn't cover mutual recognition of services, clearly its biggest drawback, but it appears that we are back in the security/Schengen systems that was causing so much angst in the days before.
The sad truth is that at over 1200 pages with 800 pages of annexes I and 99.9% of the population are never going to read it. The reports I have seen so far have been little more than headlines. Has anyone come across a reasonably detailed and neutral evaluation of the deal yet?
There’s no point you either believe it’s a great deal, because you are told by those who influence you that it is, or it’s a crap deal for similar reasons. In fact minds were made up before the deal was reached. I doubt if even more than 19% of MPs will read it let alone the public. I have seen one good thing in it though which is a replacement for EHIC and imthinkisaw something on pet passports, neither bother me personally but do many.
A Europe only ERASMUS scheme is being replaced with a newer, potentially better global Turing scheme.
And that's supposed to be a problem? 🤔
Is it the lack of a dedication to Europe that is the issue? Or the successor being open globally that is the problem?
Global is better than Europe only.
There is no evidence that the Turing scheme is of interest to anyone else other than UK. Nor in fact that it is necessary. Some universities already have exchange arrangements with non-European ones; twenty of so years ago one of my sons, studying Economics at Lancaster had to option of, and took, a year at Rice, in Houston. Incidentally elder son had earlier had an Erasmus year in Germany as part of his Engineering degree.
Setting up a new quango allows the PM to use his patronage. Even better if there is little to do, even the likes of Grayling and Dido will be fine at it and there is little to scrutinise. The scheme will be of interest to the govts leeching chums and hangers on.
A Europe only ERASMUS scheme is being replaced with a newer, potentially better global Turing scheme.
And that's supposed to be a problem? 🤔
Is it the lack of a dedication to Europe that is the issue? Or the successor being open globally that is the problem?
Global is better than Europe only.
That is perhaps the weakest, meaningless defence ever mounted on PB. You can replace anything you like with something ‘newer’ and ‘potentially better’.
By your logic, you would demolish Stonehenge or Buckingham Palace, to make way for something newer and potentially better.
Absolutely you can. And if Stonehenge or Buckingham Palace no longer served a purpose I would have no qualms about that.
But they do. Their purpose is as an historical artifact that is preserved to show the past not the future. Is that the EU to you?
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
You have to ask the question why it didn’t happen though. Why did the EU get something right that our national governments failed to address for decades? Something to do with failings in Westminster and Edinburgh to look beyond the horizon.
A Europe only ERASMUS scheme is being replaced with a newer, potentially better global Turing scheme.
And that's supposed to be a problem? 🤔
Is it the lack of a dedication to Europe that is the issue? Or the successor being open globally that is the problem?
Global is better than Europe only.
That is perhaps the weakest, meaningless defence ever mounted on PB. You can replace anything you like with something ‘newer’ and ‘potentially better’.
By your logic, you would demolish Stonehenge or Buckingham Palace, to make way for something newer and potentially better.
Absolutely you can. And if Stonehenge or Buckingham Palace no longer served a purpose I would have no qualms about that.
But they do. Their purpose is as an historical artifact that is preserved to show the past not the future. Is that the EU to you?
And if you are going to study abroad, isn't it easier to go to a country where the lectures are delivered in English, rather than German or French?
Unless you are studying one of those languages, natch!
There are a number of Universities in Continental Europe that teach in English, so it isn't much of a bar. There are medical schools in Italy, Hungary and Romania with the entire course in English. Fees are cheaper than the UK too, and quite a few Brits on these courses, though now their qualifications will no longer automatically be registrable here.
There was quite a campaign not too long ago by a Dutch University.....Maastricht IIRC.... to attract UK students. Being taught in English was one of the attractions.
There are quite a few universities on the continent that offer teaching in English. The attraction isn't mainly for monoglot Brits but for Europeans to learn English at the same time as their main subject. I guess that in most cases the teaching is carried out by non-native speakers of English. There has historically been an imbalance in Erasmus - many more students wish to study in the UK than UK students want to study abroad.
I suspect that may have been lack of encouragement. Partly, at any rate. And the hospital where I worked for the last 12 or so years of my working life offered student pharmacist places to German students...... not to the detriment off British students of course. However the Germans could use the experience as part of their qualifying time; it didn't work the other way round; British pharmacy students have to have 'practical experience' time, but at an 'approved' British institution.
It is naive to think that the issue of Britain’s relationship with the EU is now settled.
Ce n'est pas une paix, c'est un armistice de vingt ans?
Mas o menos.
For now, despite the provocation, I hope it's not called a Brexit debate. Because that's what the Brexit warriors want. But the question of how we realistically relate to the rest of the continent isn't going to go away, the boring practicalities of how people live and how businesses operate across borders are still there. Some of those practicalities are about to come into very stark relief, others will take time to emerge.
So seriously. This is the perihelion. Geography, practicality and demographics are slowly, initially imperceptibly, going to pull in one direction only. I've mentioned the Baby Boomer Brexit Bulge before- born in the 50's, least enthusiastic about the EEC in '75, core Brexit demographic in '16. Without wishing them anything but a long happy life, they will go to the great polling station in the sky at some point.
And in 15 years time, I expect the EU to still be there, and being outside the room will chafe. So 20 years or so is about right.
After all, a democracy that can't change its mind isn't much of a democracy.
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
You have to ask the question why it didn’t happen though. Why did the EU get something right that our national governments failed to address for decades? Something to do with failings in Westminster and Edinburgh to look beyond the horizon.
Who says they did?
We have democracy to determine what our priorities are. We don't need Eurocrats to do so. If people want roads in the Outer Hebrides then vote for that.
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
A Europe only ERASMUS scheme is being replaced with a newer, potentially better global Turing scheme.
And that's supposed to be a problem? 🤔
Is it the lack of a dedication to Europe that is the issue? Or the successor being open globally that is the problem?
Global is better than Europe only.
There is no evidence that the Turing scheme is of interest to anyone else other than UK. Nor in fact that it is necessary. Some universities already have exchange arrangements with non-European ones; twenty of so years ago one of my sons, studying Economics at Lancaster had to option of, and took, a year at Rice, in Houston. Incidentally elder son had earlier had an Erasmus year in Germany as part of his Engineering degree.
Setting up a new quango allows the PM to use his patronage. Even better if there is little to do, even the likes of Grayling and Dido will be fine at it and there is little to scrutinise. The scheme will be of interest to the govts leeching chums and hangers on.
My bet is the new scheme will probably be run by the Research Councils or the Royal Society/British Academy.
Who ... err .. run some international exchange schemes already for the RoW.
I think Erasmus is itself fairly marginal, but what it does show how much lying was necessary for Brexit to get through, and how many contradictory statements were made.
The big one though is the general direction of travel. Accepting the LPF with all its European standards etc closes down the Libertarian trashing of regulation, in favour of one of two options: Standstill in alignment (in which case why did we bother?) or a shift in the direction of protectionism and autarky, though even that is constrained too.
I have always expected for Brexit to end with a whimper rather than a bang, and rusting out rather than busting out.
For me, as I've posted before, "escaping" the EU will have been (at best) a monumental waste of time and energy unless in the coming years we choose a political direction that would have been forbidden or severely constrained by membership. Right now all it really boils down to is ending FOM and repatriating fish, at a price of making trade & commerce with Europe harder to do.
Re 'political direction', I'm not talking about trade deals with various far flung places, or with the US, all of that stuff is relatively trivial, never ceases to amaze me the column inches it gets, I'm talking about real radical departure from the EU template of strongly regulated market capitalism with a largish tax & spend welfare state and socially liberal mores.
So, will we go sharp Right to a much smaller state, bonfire of red tape, free ports, low tax, privatized services, etc? Or sharp Left with eg something along the lines of Labour's 2019 manifesto? Given Brexit is essentially a project of the reactionary Tory Right, the first must be more likely than the second, but my bet is neither. I don't think there is public appetite for any of that monkey business here. I think I agree with what you posted the other day. This deal is a foundation to build on with the EU and from here we will converge rather than diverge further. We'll keep working our way back to EU, babe.
And if you are going to study abroad, isn't it easier to go to a country where the lectures are delivered in English, rather than German or French?
Unless you are studying one of those languages, natch!
There are a number of Universities in Continental Europe that teach in English, so it isn't much of a bar. There are medical schools in Italy, Hungary and Romania with the entire course in English. Fees are cheaper than the UK too, and quite a few Brits on these courses, though now their qualifications will no longer automatically be registrable here.
There was quite a campaign not too long ago by a Dutch University.....Maastricht IIRC.... to attract UK students. Being taught in English was one of the attractions.
There are quite a few universities on the continent that offer teaching in English. The attraction isn't mainly for monoglot Brits but for Europeans to learn English at the same time as their main subject. I guess that in most cases the teaching is carried out by non-native speakers of English. There has historically been an imbalance in Erasmus - many more students wish to study in the UK than UK students want to study abroad.
I suspect that may have been lack of encouragement. Partly, at any rate. And the hospital where I worked for the last 12 or so years of my working life offered student pharmacist places to German students...... not to the detriment off British students of course. However the Germans could use the experience as part of their qualifying time; it didn't work the other way round; British pharmacy students have to have 'practical experience' time, but at an 'approved' British institution.
It was danish students in my wife’s time 90’s who were extremely useful to fill gasps etc whilst they improved their English and clinical knowledge.
True although the Scottish government was pretending for a while that they were going to maintain their position of having EU citizens paying no fees at all whilst the English paid £9K a head to finance the whole thing. I think that madness has proven to be too extreme even for Nicola and she is backing off. Whether Universities go to the full international rate will of course be a matter for them and will no doubt depend on the market for particular courses but I have little doubt that they will be paying more.
I suspect the English (Welsh/N Irish) students paying 9K were not financing it.
The Chinese students on 30k a head, OTH.
The rUK students are worth 3x Scottish students and are the basis on which many of the better Universities can afford to provide courses to Scottish students at all at the price the Scottish Government pays. But yes, especially for Edinburgh, those Chinese students paying 10x as much as the Scottish students for the same course are the icing on the cake. If the EU students end up paying the same it will help cover some of the shortfall created by Covid and the reduction in international numbers right now.
A Europe only ERASMUS scheme is being replaced with a newer, potentially better global Turing scheme.
And that's supposed to be a problem? 🤔
Is it the lack of a dedication to Europe that is the issue? Or the successor being open globally that is the problem?
Global is better than Europe only.
That is perhaps the weakest, meaningless defence ever mounted on PB. You can replace anything you like with something ‘newer’ and ‘potentially better’.
By your logic, you would demolish Stonehenge or Buckingham Palace, to make way for something newer and potentially better.
Absolutely you can. And if Stonehenge or Buckingham Palace no longer served a purpose I would have no qualms about that.
But they do. Their purpose is as an historical artifact that is preserved to show the past not the future. Is that the EU to you?
The EU invested in poor regions of the UK through its regional development fund. The Tories will not be investing in poor regions. As with now they will announce something, their new MPs will ramp it up on Twitter, then the people on the ground point out that their cash is actually a massive cut vs what they had. At which point the MPs will attack them.
At least thats how it works up here on Teesside. But hey, Simon Clarke now has a substantial majority, so people are happy to vote to have money taken off them.
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
You have to ask the question why it didn’t happen though. Why did the EU get something right that our national governments failed to address for decades? Something to do with failings in Westminster and Edinburgh to look beyond the horizon.
Who says they did?
We have democracy to determine what our priorities are. We don't need Eurocrats to do so. If people want roads in the Outer Hebrides then vote for that.
People in the regions do vote for that. Then HYUFD tells them to bugger off.
I need to read all the detail today (or tonight) but I suspect Erasmus is a dead cat designed to distract the ultras away from other more significant content in the TCA.
It will work, because values.
Most people don't care about it, and never would have used it anyway, and those who do hyperventilate about it will be met by shrugs and pointing to Turing instead.
Exactly. If the main criticism saturating the media is the loss of a programme that very few take advantage of, and one that is being replaced by a British version, then most people will think the Deal can't be all bad.
'But what about Erasmus?' is a killer argument only if you're already a fully paid-up FBPE-er.
It’s the lie that’s the problem.
The constant lying
Yes, BoZo and Trump have long since degraded politics. Politics has always had liars, but the shamelessness and brazeness has reached a new level.
Both Trump and the Brexiteers have understood that the truth is irrelevant, it's what you make your core vote believe that matters and Trump has been the master of that.
It is no coincidence that the current GOP and Tory party core vote has pivoted towards low-information voters. Sorry if it sounds elitist but to believe that Trump actually won the election requires a person to be fairly ignorant/stupid.
Sadly it works very successfully although I expect it ultimately leads down a QAnon-shaped rabbit hole as we are witnessing win the US.
I think Erasmus is itself fairly marginal, but what it does show how much lying was necessary for Brexit to get through, and how many contradictory statements were made.
The big one though is the general direction of travel. Accepting the LPF with all its European standards etc closes down the Libertarian trashing of regulation, in favour of one of two options: Standstill in alignment (in which case why did we bother?) or a shift in the direction of protectionism and autarky, though even that is constrained too.
I have always expected for Brexit to end with a whimper rather than a bang, and rusting out rather than busting out.
For me, as I've posted before, "escaping" the EU will have been (at best) a monumental waste of time and energy unless in the coming years we choose a political direction that would have been forbidden or severely constrained by membership. Right now all it really boils down to is ending FOM and repatriating fish, at a price of making trade & commerce with Europe harder to do.
Re 'political direction', I'm not talking about trade deals with various far flung places, or with the US, all of that stuff is relatively trivial, never ceases to amaze me the column inches it gets, I'm talking about real radical departure from the EU template of strongly regulated market capitalism with a largish tax & spend welfare state and socially liberal mores.
So, will we go sharp Right to a much smaller state, bonfire of red tape, free ports, low tax, privatized services, etc? Or sharp Left with eg something along the lines of Labour's 2019 manifesto? Given Brexit is essentially a project of the reactionary Tory Right, the first must be more likely than the second, but my bet is neither. I don't think there is public appetite for any of that monkey business here. I think I agree with what you posted the other day. This deal is a foundation to build on with the EU and from here we will converge rather than diverge further. We'll keep working our way back to EU, babe.
It’s destined to go right it’s what the sponsors and advocates have been battling for, the left are not even on the pitch let’s hope when the cat is let out of the bag it can be contained.
So we know that Erasmus is not a part of the deal. I have read on the BBC that the fisheries deal is over 5.5 years but i am not clear what percentage reduction the EU will suffer over that period. I get the impression it varies by species now.
I think we are clear that the LPF provisions will have independent international arbitration with no role for the CJEU.
We have no tariffs and no quotas and neither does the EU so we will presumably continue to run a substantial deficit.
The deal doesn't cover mutual recognition of services, clearly its biggest drawback, but it appears that we are back in the security/Schengen systems that was causing so much angst in the days before.
The sad truth is that at over 1200 pages with 800 pages of annexes I and 99.9% of the population are never going to read it. The reports I have seen so far have been little more than headlines. Has anyone come across a reasonably detailed and neutral evaluation of the deal yet?
There’s no point you either believe it’s a great deal, because you are told by those who influence you that it is, or it’s a crap deal for similar reasons. In fact minds were made up before the deal was reached. I doubt if even more than 19% of MPs will read it let alone the public. I have seen one good thing in it though which is a replacement for EHIC and imthinkisaw something on pet passports, neither bother me personally but do many.
I think that that is overly cynical and that there will be good things and bad for either side to point to although I accept that many, perhaps most, will have their minds made up in advance regardless of the detail.
My overall impression is that the EU has backed down on a number of substantive points and the UK has backed down a bit on fish to get this over the line. It seems to me that the government has got more of what it wanted than I would have expected but the devil will be in the tedious detail and it may be that some of those headline "wins" are not in fact as good as they appear.
The most important aspect is whether this deal will drain some of the poison out of the EU/UK relationship and allow us more constructive engagement going forward. I thought Gove was spot on about that this morning.
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
I'm a LibDem. We aren't in it to win it.
Address the point. Our government will not be replacing the money invested into regions and sectors like farming. Your democratic vote bit would be fine were it not for people like HYUFD who wants to crush the Scots and anyone who isn't a White Anglican life-long Tory like he is.
What I am saying is that having voted to leave the EU people in regions will now witness the cash sucking out of their areas, scratch their heads and wonder what happened to the benefits they were promised. I don't think they will vote for Keith and his Labour Party. I don't think they will vote for the Tories who have massively led them down the garden path. I worry that they will look for more extreme solutions such as that offered by the Nigel is his Sink the Migrants Party.
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
The Troll is back
I don't see eye to eye with Philip but calling him a troll is ridiculous
Has to be some weird political motivation to withdraw from Erasmus.
Decision on excessive costs and a better scheme that encompasses the world is not weird
Your faith in this government to reduce costs is beautifully touching. You should be expecting to pick up the tab.
I read leaving Erasmus as political act to weaken ties with the continent in favour of the Anglo sphere. The sort of crass politics you get from people like Gove.
Or maybe just a value for money scheme that applies worldwide, not just to the EU
G these people will be unable to ever put a value for money scheme in place. It will be an expensive one that is only for Tories families and chums and only the chosen ones at that as well.
I logged on this morning and to be honest it was like a remainer's wake but I do accept that this Christmas has seen an end to their dreams.
To be honest we just need to move on, some will never do so, but I suspect the vast majority will be pleased it has been brought to a deal conclusion
Of course in all deals there are wins and losses but I fully expect Boris to embrace a very pro climate change pro sustainable farming policy and through climate change strike up a relationship with Joe Biden impossible with Trump
As far as Eramus is concerned my granddaughter was due to study in Italy in 2023 but I have little doubt the Turing replacement will provide opportunities not only within Europe but world wide
And as far as Boris is concerned his detractors and enemies may have to get used to him being PM for quite a long time
You'll probably get your "moving on" wish fulfilled in most sections of the Clapham Omnibus but far less so in committed, high octane places such as here.
Re your last sentence, 100% agree. Boris "80 seat" Johnson is going precisely nowhere. My biggest current political bet is on him still being PM on 1st July 2022. I'm on at an average 1.85 and I'm treating it mentally like money in the bank. You can get 1.72 or something now and I simply cannot recommend that bet enough. It's outstanding value. If you don't want to wait 18 months for the full return it will be layable back at 1.4 or less by Easter.
I agree and of course there will always be an element of those who cannot comprehend us being outside the EU but the vast majority will move on and some like myself breath a sigh of relief we have turned the page
As for Boris he has never been stronger in his party and he does seem to be rediscovering his mojo.
The climate conference is a huge world event here in Glasgow and he is the host, so I cannot imagine he will move on before that and indeed it is even possible he may contest the 2024 election
If he had been responsible for a no deal I believe he would not have lasted long into 2021
Well "moving on" from the wild and regular overestimation of the never more than 5% probability of a No Deal is something I do very much welcome. I need a new bugbear now though.
Regardless of ERASMUS or "Turing", isn't it likely that many exchange programmes will continue to occur and be accessible to students from both the UK and the EU, but operated as bi/multilateral schemes run by Universities themselves?
I logged on this morning and to be honest it was like a remainer's wake but I do accept that this Christmas has seen an end to their dreams.
To be honest we just need to move on, some will never do so, but I suspect the vast majority will be pleased it has been brought to a deal conclusion
Of course in all deals there are wins and losses but I fully expect Boris to embrace a very pro climate change pro sustainable farming policy and through climate change strike up a relationship with Joe Biden impossible with Trump
As far as Eramus is concerned my granddaughter was due to study in Italy in 2023 but I have little doubt the Turing replacement will provide opportunities not only within Europe but world wide
And as far as Boris is concerned his detractors and enemies may have to get used to him being PM for quite a long time
You'll probably get your "moving on" wish fulfilled in most sections of the Clapham Omnibus but far less so in committed, high octane places such as here.
Re your last sentence, 100% agree. Boris "80 seat" Johnson is going precisely nowhere. My biggest current political bet is on him still being PM on 1st July 2022. I'm on at an average 1.85 and I'm treating it mentally like money in the bank. You can get 1.72 or something now and I simply cannot recommend that bet enough. It's outstanding value. If you don't want to wait 18 months for the full return it will be layable back at 1.4 or less by Easter.
I agree and of course there will always be an element of those who cannot comprehend us being outside the EU but the vast majority will move on and some like myself breath a sigh of relief we have turned the page
As for Boris he has never been stronger in his party and he does seem to be rediscovering his mojo.
The climate conference is a huge world event here in Glasgow and he is the host, so I cannot imagine he will move on before that and indeed it is even possible he may contest the 2024 election
If he had been responsible for a no deal I believe he would not have lasted long into 2021
Well "moving on" from the wild and regular overestimation of the never more than 5% probability of a No Deal is something I do very much welcome. I need a new bugbear now though.
Has anyone properly congratulated on you for being right all along?
I logged on this morning and to be honest it was like a remainer's wake but I do accept that this Christmas has seen an end to their dreams.
To be honest we just need to move on, some will never do so, but I suspect the vast majority will be pleased it has been brought to a deal conclusion
Of course in all deals there are wins and losses but I fully expect Boris to embrace a very pro climate change pro sustainable farming policy and through climate change strike up a relationship with Joe Biden impossible with Trump
As far as Eramus is concerned my granddaughter was due to study in Italy in 2023 but I have little doubt the Turing replacement will provide opportunities not only within Europe but world wide
And as far as Boris is concerned his detractors and enemies may have to get used to him being PM for quite a long time
You'll probably get your "moving on" wish fulfilled in most sections of the Clapham Omnibus but far less so in committed, high octane places such as here.
Re your last sentence, 100% agree. Boris "80 seat" Johnson is going precisely nowhere. My biggest current political bet is on him still being PM on 1st July 2022. I'm on at an average 1.85 and I'm treating it mentally like money in the bank. You can get 1.72 or something now and I simply cannot recommend that bet enough. It's outstanding value. If you don't want to wait 18 months for the full return it will be layable back at 1.4 or less by Easter.
Politically he is safe, much safer than people think so I like the angle. Personal and health resignation reasons are very difficult to price for a man who is recently out of intensive care and a chaotic (albeit "normal for him") private life. 1.72 might be a touch of value but not quite enough for me when waiting 18 months.
He will dine out on that day or two in intensive care with his 24 hour nurses and doctors for sure. Any excuse will do.
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
I'm a LibDem. We aren't in it to win it.
Address the point. Our government will not be replacing the money invested into regions and sectors like farming. Your democratic vote bit would be fine were it not for people like HYUFD who wants to crush the Scots and anyone who isn't a White Anglican life-long Tory like he is.
What I am saying is that having voted to leave the EU people in regions will now witness the cash sucking out of their areas, scratch their heads and wonder what happened to the benefits they were promised. I don't think they will vote for Keith and his Labour Party. I don't think they will vote for the Tories who have massively led them down the garden path. I worry that they will look for more extreme solutions such as that offered by the Nigel is his Sink the Migrants Party.
I despise HYUFD and everything he represents. If the Tory Party was genuinely what HYUFD stands for I would join the Liberal Democrats immediately.
But HYUFD is HYUFD not the Party.
If cash is sucked out of the region's then I am glad we have First Past the Post - the region's should elect MPs to stand up for their region.
I think Erasmus is itself fairly marginal, but what it does show how much lying was necessary for Brexit to get through, and how many contradictory statements were made.
The big one though is the general direction of travel. Accepting the LPF with all its European standards etc closes down the Libertarian trashing of regulation, in favour of one of two options: Standstill in alignment (in which case why did we bother?) or a shift in the direction of protectionism and autarky, though even that is constrained too.
I have always expected for Brexit to end with a whimper rather than a bang, and rusting out rather than busting out.
For me, as I've posted before, "escaping" the EU will have been (at best) a monumental waste of time and energy unless in the coming years we choose a political direction that would have been forbidden or severely constrained by membership. Right now all it really boils down to is ending FOM and repatriating fish, at a price of making trade & commerce with Europe harder to do.
Re 'political direction', I'm not talking about trade deals with various far flung places, or with the US, all of that stuff is relatively trivial, never ceases to amaze me the column inches it gets, I'm talking about real radical departure from the EU template of strongly regulated market capitalism with a largish tax & spend welfare state and socially liberal mores.
So, will we go sharp Right to a much smaller state, bonfire of red tape, free ports, low tax, privatized services, etc? Or sharp Left with eg something along the lines of Labour's 2019 manifesto? Given Brexit is essentially a project of the reactionary Tory Right, the first must be more likely than the second, but my bet is neither. I don't think there is public appetite for any of that monkey business here. I think I agree with what you posted the other day. This deal is a foundation to build on with the EU and from here we will converge rather than diverge further. We'll keep working our way back to EU, babe.
The idea for the ERG was to swing right - a bonfire of red tape and regulations. The problem is that the deal literally ties the UK to EU standards and creates a huge amount of cost and red tape vs what we had. For example they will now push for a Freeport here on Teeside which with a pile of state aid money and a removal of import/export paperwork delays and costs might just get us back to what we already had with the Tees Valley Free Enterprise Zone. That we could - and did - create these inside the EU is just funny.
My daughter did a year with Erasmus in Holland two years ago now and it was a great experience for her. I am sad that the next generation of students will not participate but it does appear that it is an example of the EU once again overplaying their hand. In seeking to increase the cost of participation in this way they have lost UK participation altogether which will be a considerable loss to EU students wanting to come here.
It will be interesting to see if the UK replacement will fund students both ways, that is funding for our students to enjoy a year abroad and for EU students to come here. I hope so and it would not be the worst thing if the EU realises that overpricing Erasmus is a mistake that should be reversed.
On the other hand, UK universities will be moving new EU students to international fee rates from this autumn. It varies by course and institution, but the ballpark increase is about 9k to about 20-30k. More than doubling, close to tripling for practical courses.
Will the SNP still be funding university places for EU citizens? While charging the English and rather than using their funds to be better educating their own.
Of course they will unless the EU start charging Scottish students as England does.
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
Am glad to report that Mrs Walker seems to be through the worst of COVID, and, fingers crossed, so is Master (18 months) Walker.
My self and Miss (6 years old) Walker have tested negative. But we are all confined until 1 January earliest.
Obviously Christmas was rather grim, but friends delivered a socially distanced roast chicken and lobster(!).
Thank-you PBers for the many kind wishes.
On topic: Keir is obviously right to vote for the deal, even though it sticks in my Remainer craw. Voting against is tantamount to voting No Deal or a vote against Brexit itself.
Brexit is now dead - thank god - I hope we can get on with discussing with the post-pandemic, post-Brexit Britain of 2030 should look like.
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
I'm a LibDem. We aren't in it to win it.
Address the point. Our government will not be replacing the money invested into regions and sectors like farming. Your democratic vote bit would be fine were it not for people like HYUFD who wants to crush the Scots and anyone who isn't a White Anglican life-long Tory like he is.
What I am saying is that having voted to leave the EU people in regions will now witness the cash sucking out of their areas, scratch their heads and wonder what happened to the benefits they were promised. I don't think they will vote for Keith and his Labour Party. I don't think they will vote for the Tories who have massively led them down the garden path. I worry that they will look for more extreme solutions such as that offered by the Nigel is his Sink the Migrants Party.
I despise HYUFD and everything he represents. If the Tory Party was genuinely what HYUFD stands for I would join the Liberal Democrats immediately.
But HYUFD is HYUFD not the Party.
If cash is sucked out of the region's then I am glad we have First Past the Post - the region's should elect MPs to stand up for their region.
Under FPTP regions do elect MPs who stand up for their region. HYUFD then tells them to bugger off.
As he puts it, the only way paupers in the regions can have any cash is to elect a Tory MP.
I logged on this morning and to be honest it was like a remainer's wake but I do accept that this Christmas has seen an end to their dreams.
To be honest we just need to move on, some will never do so, but I suspect the vast majority will be pleased it has been brought to a deal conclusion
Of course in all deals there are wins and losses but I fully expect Boris to embrace a very pro climate change pro sustainable farming policy and through climate change strike up a relationship with Joe Biden impossible with Trump
As far as Eramus is concerned my granddaughter was due to study in Italy in 2023 but I have little doubt the Turing replacement will provide opportunities not only within Europe but world wide
And as far as Boris is concerned his detractors and enemies may have to get used to him being PM for quite a long time
Your hopes are likely to be dashed given the lying toerag making the promises.
Good morning Malc.
I hope you and your good lady enjoyed your Christmas Day and trust the new year will be good for you both, especially health wise
Hello G, yes we had a great day , saw our grandsons for first time in a while for an hour. Hope you and yours had a great day and wish you a great 2021.
That is just perfect Malc - so happy for you both being with your grandsons on Christmas Day
And thank you for your kind wishes for 2021 - vaccination for all will be joyous
Thanks G, certainly looking forward to getting the jab and getting back to some kind of normality.
My daughter did a year with Erasmus in Holland two years ago now and it was a great experience for her. I am sad that the next generation of students will not participate but it does appear that it is an example of the EU once again overplaying their hand. In seeking to increase the cost of participation in this way they have lost UK participation altogether which will be a considerable loss to EU students wanting to come here.
It will be interesting to see if the UK replacement will fund students both ways, that is funding for our students to enjoy a year abroad and for EU students to come here. I hope so and it would not be the worst thing if the EU realises that overpricing Erasmus is a mistake that should be reversed.
On the other hand, UK universities will be moving new EU students to international fee rates from this autumn. It varies by course and institution, but the ballpark increase is about 9k to about 20-30k. More than doubling, close to tripling for practical courses.
True although the Scottish government was pretending for a while that they were going to maintain their position of having EU citizens paying no fees at all whilst the English paid £9K a head to finance the whole thing. I think that madness has proven to be too extreme even for Nicola and she is backing off. Whether Universities go to the full international rate will of course be a matter for them and will no doubt depend on the market for particular courses but I have little doubt that they will be paying more.
Not as much as Scottish students pay in England though David.
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
I'm a LibDem. We aren't in it to win it.
Address the point. Our government will not be replacing the money invested into regions and sectors like farming. Your democratic vote bit would be fine were it not for people like HYUFD who wants to crush the Scots and anyone who isn't a White Anglican life-long Tory like he is.
What I am saying is that having voted to leave the EU people in regions will now witness the cash sucking out of their areas, scratch their heads and wonder what happened to the benefits they were promised. I don't think they will vote for Keith and his Labour Party. I don't think they will vote for the Tories who have massively led them down the garden path. I worry that they will look for more extreme solutions such as that offered by the Nigel is his Sink the Migrants Party.
I despise HYUFD and everything he represents. If the Tory Party was genuinely what HYUFD stands for I would join the Liberal Democrats immediately.
But HYUFD is HYUFD not the Party.
If cash is sucked out of the region's then I am glad we have First Past the Post - the region's should elect MPs to stand up for their region.
Under FPTP regions do elect MPs who stand up for their region. HYUFD then tells them to bugger off.
As he puts it, the only way paupers in the regions can have any cash is to elect a Tory MP.
HYUFD isn't an MP let alone 326 of then.
Whom each constituency elects matters more than a single Blue Corbynite from Epping Forest
I see George Blake has died (somewhat surprised to find he was alive until yesterday!) .Whatever the murky morals of the cold war ,his was an old school (don't get em anymore!) fascinating story right from the days of nazi occupied europe to the swinging sixtes
So we know that Erasmus is not a part of the deal. I have read on the BBC that the fisheries deal is over 5.5 years but i am not clear what percentage reduction the EU will suffer over that period. I get the impression it varies by species now.
I think we are clear that the LPF provisions will have independent international arbitration with no role for the CJEU.
We have no tariffs and no quotas and neither does the EU so we will presumably continue to run a substantial deficit.
The deal doesn't cover mutual recognition of services, clearly its biggest drawback, but it appears that we are back in the security/Schengen systems that was causing so much angst in the days before.
The sad truth is that at over 1200 pages with 800 pages of annexes I and 99.9% of the population are never going to read it. The reports I have seen so far have been little more than headlines. Has anyone come across a reasonably detailed and neutral evaluation of the deal yet?
There’s no point you either believe it’s a great deal, because you are told by those who influence you that it is, or it’s a crap deal for similar reasons. In fact minds were made up before the deal was reached. I doubt if even more than 19% of MPs will read it let alone the public. I have seen one good thing in it though which is a replacement for EHIC and imthinkisaw something on pet passports, neither bother me personally but do many.
I think that that is overly cynical and that there will be good things and bad for either side to point to although I accept that many, perhaps most, will have their minds made up in advance regardless of the detail.
My overall impression is that the EU has backed down on a number of substantive points and the UK has backed down a bit on fish to get this over the line. It seems to me that the government has got more of what it wanted than I would have expected but the devil will be in the tedious detail and it may be that some of those headline "wins" are not in fact as good as they appear.
The most important aspect is whether this deal will drain some of the poison out of the EU/UK relationship and allow us more constructive engagement going forward. I thought Gove was spot on about that this morning.
Sadly I don’t think it will.
Britain has not been used to living next door to a continental power since about 1800 (with a brief interlude in the 1940s).
I expect the EU will continue to be a whipping boy for the right-wing popular press, and that the U.K. governments will continue to fail to invest in the various forms of diplomatic capital necessary to build the most effective links with the EU.
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
I'm a LibDem. We aren't in it to win it.
Address the point. Our government will not be replacing the money invested into regions and sectors like farming. Your democratic vote bit would be fine were it not for people like HYUFD who wants to crush the Scots and anyone who isn't a White Anglican life-long Tory like he is.
What I am saying is that having voted to leave the EU people in regions will now witness the cash sucking out of their areas, scratch their heads and wonder what happened to the benefits they were promised. I don't think they will vote for Keith and his Labour Party. I don't think they will vote for the Tories who have massively led them down the garden path. I worry that they will look for more extreme solutions such as that offered by the Nigel is his Sink the Migrants Party.
I despise HYUFD and everything he represents. If the Tory Party was genuinely what HYUFD stands for I would join the Liberal Democrats immediately.
But HYUFD is HYUFD not the Party.
If cash is sucked out of the region's then I am glad we have First Past the Post - the region's should elect MPs to stand up for their region.
Under FPTP regions do elect MPs who stand up for their region. HYUFD then tells them to bugger off.
As he puts it, the only way paupers in the regions can have any cash is to elect a Tory MP.
HYUFD isn't an MP let alone 326 of then.
Whom each constituency matters more than a single Blue Corbynite from Epping Forest
HYUFD is a distraction. The reality is that if these poor places don't vote for a Tory MP then they will get Fuck All. And the poor places that DO vote for a Tory MP get thrown a much smaller amount of cash than required / previously had. Either way, the cash is gone.
The Tories have a real challenge - they need to cement themselves into Purple Wall seats and to deliver genuine long term benefits having left the EU. That will take an ocean of cash, they don't have an ocean of cash and even if they did they will give it to their mates rather than to regional proles.
So we know that Erasmus is not a part of the deal. I have read on the BBC that the fisheries deal is over 5.5 years but i am not clear what percentage reduction the EU will suffer over that period. I get the impression it varies by species now.
I think we are clear that the LPF provisions will have independent international arbitration with no role for the CJEU.
We have no tariffs and no quotas and neither does the EU so we will presumably continue to run a substantial deficit.
The deal doesn't cover mutual recognition of services, clearly its biggest drawback, but it appears that we are back in the security/Schengen systems that was causing so much angst in the days before.
The sad truth is that at over 1200 pages with 800 pages of annexes I and 99.9% of the population are never going to read it. The reports I have seen so far have been little more than headlines. Has anyone come across a reasonably detailed and neutral evaluation of the deal yet?
There’s no point you either believe it’s a great deal, because you are told by those who influence you that it is, or it’s a crap deal for similar reasons. In fact minds were made up before the deal was reached. I doubt if even more than 19% of MPs will read it let alone the public. I have seen one good thing in it though which is a replacement for EHIC and imthinkisaw something on pet passports, neither bother me personally but do many.
I think that that is overly cynical and that there will be good things and bad for either side to point to although I accept that many, perhaps most, will have their minds made up in advance regardless of the detail.
My overall impression is that the EU has backed down on a number of substantive points and the UK has backed down a bit on fish to get this over the line. It seems to me that the government has got more of what it wanted than I would have expected but the devil will be in the tedious detail and it may be that some of those headline "wins" are not in fact as good as they appear.
The most important aspect is whether this deal will drain some of the poison out of the EU/UK relationship and allow us more constructive engagement going forward. I thought Gove was spot on about that this morning.
The biggest surprise to me is that the EU settled for a win on fish and in return the UK got a much bigger win on the LPF and arbitration. What's even more odd is that they also agreed to no cross sector retaliation if/when the UK reduces EU quotas after 5.5 years with tariffs limited to fishing so it gives the government licence to do what it wants on fish after 5.5 years and just live with some level of tariffs set by the arbitration process.
Lots of continuity remainers talking about the EU keeping the UK in its orbit, but so far there is not a lot of evidence for that. Their original proposal of ECJ jurisdiction and supremacy of EU law over the treaty would have meant that for sure but the EU have given that away as well.
I'm honestly quite surprised by how well Frost and his team have done. The whole team deserve a lot of praise for what they've achieved. Getting Boris to speak to Ursula at the end to sideline Barnier for the final three issues was surely the best bit of politicking of the whole process. On the LPF and governance Frost has completely run rings around Barnier and Barnier has sold the deal to the French by giving them a victory on fish whole Ursula and Riso were in the room agreeing to UK demand for arbitration, no cross sectoral retaliation and arbitrator led tariffs.
I logged on this morning and to be honest it was like a remainer's wake but I do accept that this Christmas has seen an end to their dreams.
To be honest we just need to move on, some will never do so, but I suspect the vast majority will be pleased it has been brought to a deal conclusion
Of course in all deals there are wins and losses but I fully expect Boris to embrace a very pro climate change pro sustainable farming policy and through climate change strike up a relationship with Joe Biden impossible with Trump
As far as Eramus is concerned my granddaughter was due to study in Italy in 2023 but I have little doubt the Turing replacement will provide opportunities not only within Europe but world wide
And as far as Boris is concerned his detractors and enemies may have to get used to him being PM for quite a long time
You'll probably get your "moving on" wish fulfilled in most sections of the Clapham Omnibus but far less so in committed, high octane places such as here.
Re your last sentence, 100% agree. Boris "80 seat" Johnson is going precisely nowhere. My biggest current political bet is on him still being PM on 1st July 2022. I'm on at an average 1.85 and I'm treating it mentally like money in the bank. You can get 1.72 or something now and I simply cannot recommend that bet enough. It's outstanding value. If you don't want to wait 18 months for the full return it will be layable back at 1.4 or less by Easter.
I agree and of course there will always be an element of those who cannot comprehend us being outside the EU but the vast majority will move on and some like myself breath a sigh of relief we have turned the page
As for Boris he has never been stronger in his party and he does seem to be rediscovering his mojo.
The climate conference is a huge world event here in Glasgow and he is the host, so I cannot imagine he will move on before that and indeed it is even possible he may contest the 2024 election
If he had been responsible for a no deal I believe he would not have lasted long into 2021
Well "moving on" from the wild and regular overestimation of the never more than 5% probability of a No Deal is something I do very much welcome. I need a new bugbear now though.
Don't fret Kinabalu I still think we haver quite sometime to go before both Trump and Brexit are put to bed, so you have time to find a new bugbear.
@NickPalmer I expect some sort of mini-deal or mini-deals to be done with the US because of politics - I don't think even Biden wants to create the impression he can do deals with his near neighbours and the Pacific nations, but not his closest ally and vice-versa for the UK - but it won't be a full comprehensive all-singing all-dancing FTA.
I logged on this morning and to be honest it was like a remainer's wake but I do accept that this Christmas has seen an end to their dreams.
To be honest we just need to move on, some will never do so, but I suspect the vast majority will be pleased it has been brought to a deal conclusion
Of course in all deals there are wins and losses but I fully expect Boris to embrace a very pro climate change pro sustainable farming policy and through climate change strike up a relationship with Joe Biden impossible with Trump
As far as Eramus is concerned my granddaughter was due to study in Italy in 2023 but I have little doubt the Turing replacement will provide opportunities not only within Europe but world wide
And as far as Boris is concerned his detractors and enemies may have to get used to him being PM for quite a long time
You'll probably get your "moving on" wish fulfilled in most sections of the Clapham Omnibus but far less so in committed, high octane places such as here.
Re your last sentence, 100% agree. Boris "80 seat" Johnson is going precisely nowhere. My biggest current political bet is on him still being PM on 1st July 2022. I'm on at an average 1.85 and I'm treating it mentally like money in the bank. You can get 1.72 or something now and I simply cannot recommend that bet enough. It's outstanding value. If you don't want to wait 18 months for the full return it will be layable back at 1.4 or less by Easter.
I agree and of course there will always be an element of those who cannot comprehend us being outside the EU but the vast majority will move on and some like myself breath a sigh of relief we have turned the page
As for Boris he has never been stronger in his party and he does seem to be rediscovering his mojo.
The climate conference is a huge world event here in Glasgow and he is the host, so I cannot imagine he will move on before that and indeed it is even possible he may contest the 2024 election
If he had been responsible for a no deal I believe he would not have lasted long into 2021
Well "moving on" from the wild and regular overestimation of the never more than 5% probability of a No Deal is something I do very much welcome. I need a new bugbear now though.
Has anyone properly congratulated on you for being right all along?
Hello, Alex. Thanks for mention. Yes, I think I've accrued as much kudos as I could reasonably have hoped. I'm happy.
Will put a bit of it back on the table now with a prediction that the Dems, contrary to what the odds are saying, will pull off the Georgia double.
Am glad to report that Mrs Walker seems to be through the worst of COVID, and, fingers crossed, so is Master (18 months) Walker.
My self and Miss (6 years old) Walker have tested negative. But we are all confined until 1 January earliest.
Obviously Christmas was rather grim, but friends delivered a socially distanced roast chicken and lobster(!).
Thank-you PBers for the many kind wishes.
On topic: Keir is obviously right to vote for the deal, even though it sticks in my Remainer craw. Voting against is tantamount to voting No Deal or a vote against Brexit itself.
Brexit is now dead - thank god - I hope we can get on with discussing with the post-pandemic, post-Brexit Britain of 2030 should look like.
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
I'm a LibDem. We aren't in it to win it.
Address the point. Our government will not be replacing the money invested into regions and sectors like farming. Your democratic vote bit would be fine were it not for people like HYUFD who wants to crush the Scots and anyone who isn't a White Anglican life-long Tory like he is.
What I am saying is that having voted to leave the EU people in regions will now witness the cash sucking out of their areas, scratch their heads and wonder what happened to the benefits they were promised. I don't think they will vote for Keith and his Labour Party. I don't think they will vote for the Tories who have massively led them down the garden path. I worry that they will look for more extreme solutions such as that offered by the Nigel is his Sink the Migrants Party.
The answer to these questions is that it depends on what governments we elect in the UK and what they consider to be in their own interests. To take an obvious example Boris has an 80 seat majority because of his success in demolishing the Labour red wall of seats that they had taken for granted for too long. Many of these seats were recipients of EU funds. If those funds are not replaced then they may turn red again soon enough but my guess is that they will be not for altruistic reasons but because the Tories are (unlike the Lib Dems) absolutely in it to win it.
It's also why I disagree somewhat with @kinabalu's point. I do not detect any electoral enthusiasm for either extreme in the UK. Nearly all of us accept a fairly high spending state that seeks to create equality of opportunity with limited success. Corbyn was perhaps an exception but the difference of degree between an SKS led Labour party and a Boris led Tory party does not point to anything radical in either direction.
What I would hope for, personally, is that our policies can be more directed to what we actually want rather than schemes designed to protect French farmers or German manufacturers. So our agricultural subsidies will be focused on maintaining and renewing our countryside rather than subsidising the mass production of food, we are willing to enter into other FTAs with other countries and groups even if that makes things a bit more competitive for things we currently import from Germany. These will be gains at the margins and I accept that there may be some detriments too.
I think the photograph posted on here this morning of Boris with a used nappy by his feet is a real low point for this site.
It just shows how little fight they've got left mate. They're reduced to childish sniggering because they've lost, lost and then lost again. The UK has left the EU, we've got a substantial trade deal, freedom to diverge, and end date for EU rights in UK waters, the end of ECJ jurisdiction and an end of the supremacy of EU law in this country. We are finally independent of the EU and their laws. Nothing they can say, pictures they can Photoshop will change those facts. Let them have their "victory" based on twitter likes, we'll keep winning in the real world.
So we know that Erasmus is not a part of the deal. I have read on the BBC that the fisheries deal is over 5.5 years but i am not clear what percentage reduction the EU will suffer over that period. I get the impression it varies by species now.
I think we are clear that the LPF provisions will have independent international arbitration with no role for the CJEU.
We have no tariffs and no quotas and neither does the EU so we will presumably continue to run a substantial deficit.
The deal doesn't cover mutual recognition of services, clearly its biggest drawback, but it appears that we are back in the security/Schengen systems that was causing so much angst in the days before.
The sad truth is that at over 1200 pages with 800 pages of annexes I and 99.9% of the population are never going to read it. The reports I have seen so far have been little more than headlines. Has anyone come across a reasonably detailed and neutral evaluation of the deal yet?
There’s no point you either believe it’s a great deal, because you are told by those who influence you that it is, or it’s a crap deal for similar reasons. In fact minds were made up before the deal was reached. I doubt if even more than 19% of MPs will read it let alone the public. I have seen one good thing in it though which is a replacement for EHIC and imthinkisaw something on pet passports, neither bother me personally but do many.
I think that that is overly cynical and that there will be good things and bad for either side to point to although I accept that many, perhaps most, will have their minds made up in advance regardless of the detail.
My overall impression is that the EU has backed down on a number of substantive points and the UK has backed down a bit on fish to get this over the line. It seems to me that the government has got more of what it wanted than I would have expected but the devil will be in the tedious detail and it may be that some of those headline "wins" are not in fact as good as they appear.
The most important aspect is whether this deal will drain some of the poison out of the EU/UK relationship and allow us more constructive engagement going forward. I thought Gove was spot on about that this morning.
The biggest surprise to me is that the EU settled for a win on fish and in return the UK got a much bigger win on the LPF and arbitration. What's even more odd is that they also agreed to no cross sector retaliation if/when the UK reduces EU quotas after 5.5 years with tariffs limited to fishing so it gives the government licence to do what it wants on fish after 5.5 years and just live with some level of tariffs set by the arbitration process.
Lots of continuity remainers talking about the EU keeping the UK in its orbit, but so far there is not a lot of evidence for that. Their original proposal of ECJ jurisdiction and supremacy of EU law over the treaty would have meant that for sure but the EU have given that away as well.
I'm honestly quite surprised by how well Frost and his team have done. The whole team deserve a lot of praise for what they've achieved. Getting Boris to speak to Ursula at the end to sideline Barnier for the final three issues was surely the best bit of politicking of the whole process. On the LPF and governance Frost has completely run rings around Barnier and Barnier has sold the deal to the French by giving them a victory on fish whole Ursula and Riso were in the room agreeing to UK demand for arbitration, no cross sectoral retaliation and arbitrator led tariffs.
The Times (which is a mildly Remainy newspaper) was effusive in its praise for Frost in its "in depth" story of the negotiations that I read last night.
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
I'm a LibDem. We aren't in it to win it.
Address the point. Our government will not be replacing the money invested into regions and sectors like farming. Your democratic vote bit would be fine were it not for people like HYUFD who wants to crush the Scots and anyone who isn't a White Anglican life-long Tory like he is.
What I am saying is that having voted to leave the EU people in regions will now witness the cash sucking out of their areas, scratch their heads and wonder what happened to the benefits they were promised. I don't think they will vote for Keith and his Labour Party. I don't think they will vote for the Tories who have massively led them down the garden path. I worry that they will look for more extreme solutions such as that offered by the Nigel is his Sink the Migrants Party.
I despise HYUFD and everything he represents. If the Tory Party was genuinely what HYUFD stands for I would join the Liberal Democrats immediately.
But HYUFD is HYUFD not the Party.
If cash is sucked out of the region's then I am glad we have First Past the Post - the region's should elect MPs to stand up for their region.
Under FPTP regions do elect MPs who stand up for their region. HYUFD then tells them to bugger off.
As he puts it, the only way paupers in the regions can have any cash is to elect a Tory MP.
HYUFD isn't an MP let alone 326 of then.
Whom each constituency matters more than a single Blue Corbynite from Epping Forest
HYUFD is a distraction. The reality is that if these poor places don't vote for a Tory MP then they will get Fuck All. And the poor places that DO vote for a Tory MP get thrown a much smaller amount of cash than required / previously had. Either way, the cash is gone.
The Tories have a real challenge - they need to cement themselves into Purple Wall seats and to deliver genuine long term benefits having left the EU. That will take an ocean of cash, they don't have an ocean of cash and even if they did they will give it to their mates rather than to regional proles.
Cash is a distraction too.
The reason the wall turned purple isn't throwing cash at it or even Brexit (it's been trending that way for a decade).
It is that Tory stewardship of the economy has helped the purple wall.
If you look at the share of people able to get their own home in the purple wall that has gone up over the past decade. After it went down under Labour.
If people are able to afford their own home they are more likely to vote for the Tory government. It is really as simple as that.
That doesn't require throwing cash at every problem. Just the right ones.
So we know that Erasmus is not a part of the deal. I have read on the BBC that the fisheries deal is over 5.5 years but i am not clear what percentage reduction the EU will suffer over that period. I get the impression it varies by species now.
I think we are clear that the LPF provisions will have independent international arbitration with no role for the CJEU.
We have no tariffs and no quotas and neither does the EU so we will presumably continue to run a substantial deficit.
The deal doesn't cover mutual recognition of services, clearly its biggest drawback, but it appears that we are back in the security/Schengen systems that was causing so much angst in the days before.
The sad truth is that at over 1200 pages with 800 pages of annexes I and 99.9% of the population are never going to read it. The reports I have seen so far have been little more than headlines. Has anyone come across a reasonably detailed and neutral evaluation of the deal yet?
There’s no point you either believe it’s a great deal, because you are told by those who influence you that it is, or it’s a crap deal for similar reasons. In fact minds were made up before the deal was reached. I doubt if even more than 19% of MPs will read it let alone the public. I have seen one good thing in it though which is a replacement for EHIC and imthinkisaw something on pet passports, neither bother me personally but do many.
I think that that is overly cynical and that there will be good things and bad for either side to point to although I accept that many, perhaps most, will have their minds made up in advance regardless of the detail.
My overall impression is that the EU has backed down on a number of substantive points and the UK has backed down a bit on fish to get this over the line. It seems to me that the government has got more of what it wanted than I would have expected but the devil will be in the tedious detail and it may be that some of those headline "wins" are not in fact as good as they appear.
The most important aspect is whether this deal will drain some of the poison out of the EU/UK relationship and allow us more constructive engagement going forward. I thought Gove was spot on about that this morning.
The biggest surprise to me is that the EU settled for a win on fish and in return the UK got a much bigger win on the LPF and arbitration. What's even more odd is that they also agreed to no cross sector retaliation if/when the UK reduces EU quotas after 5.5 years with tariffs limited to fishing so it gives the government licence to do what it wants on fish after 5.5 years and just live with some level of tariffs set by the arbitration process.
Lots of continuity remainers talking about the EU keeping the UK in its orbit, but so far there is not a lot of evidence for that. Their original proposal of ECJ jurisdiction and supremacy of EU law over the treaty would have meant that for sure but the EU have given that away as well.
I'm honestly quite surprised by how well Frost and his team have done. The whole team deserve a lot of praise for what they've achieved. Getting Boris to speak to Ursula at the end to sideline Barnier for the final three issues was surely the best bit of politicking of the whole process. On the LPF and governance Frost has completely run rings around Barnier and Barnier has sold the deal to the French by giving them a victory on fish whole Ursula and Riso were in the room agreeing to UK demand for arbitration, no cross sectoral retaliation and arbitrator led tariffs.
Got to agree with you and DavidL on this. Playing the fish for all it was worth had the effect of an improved deal on the other matters. So the eventual concession on fish, which is temporary, was worth paying. Emmanuel was with us after all!
Grimsby was once home to the world’s largest fishing fleet. Doubt it can be so again, but I fully support a mission to make Grimsby great again (and Peterhead, Brixham, Newlyn and Shoreham).
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
I'm a LibDem. We aren't in it to win it.
Address the point. Our government will not be replacing the money invested into regions and sectors like farming. Your democratic vote bit would be fine were it not for people like HYUFD who wants to crush the Scots and anyone who isn't a White Anglican life-long Tory like he is.
What I am saying is that having voted to leave the EU people in regions will now witness the cash sucking out of their areas, scratch their heads and wonder what happened to the benefits they were promised. I don't think they will vote for Keith and his Labour Party. I don't think they will vote for the Tories who have massively led them down the garden path. I worry that they will look for more extreme solutions such as that offered by the Nigel is his Sink the Migrants Party.
I despise HYUFD and everything he represents. If the Tory Party was genuinely what HYUFD stands for I would join the Liberal Democrats immediately.
But HYUFD is HYUFD not the Party.
If cash is sucked out of the region's then I am glad we have First Past the Post - the region's should elect MPs to stand up for their region.
Under FPTP regions do elect MPs who stand up for their region. HYUFD then tells them to bugger off.
As he puts it, the only way paupers in the regions can have any cash is to elect a Tory MP.
HYUFD isn't an MP let alone 326 of then.
Whom each constituency matters more than a single Blue Corbynite from Epping Forest
HYUFD is a distraction. The reality is that if these poor places don't vote for a Tory MP then they will get Fuck All. And the poor places that DO vote for a Tory MP get thrown a much smaller amount of cash than required / previously had. Either way, the cash is gone.
The Tories have a real challenge - they need to cement themselves into Purple Wall seats and to deliver genuine long term benefits having left the EU. That will take an ocean of cash, they don't have an ocean of cash and even if they did they will give it to their mates rather than to regional proles.
Cash is a distraction too.
The reason the wall turned purple isn't throwing cash at it or even Brexit (it's been trending that way for a decade).
It is that Tory stewardship of the economy has helped the purple wall.
If you look at the share of people able to get their own home in the purple wall that has gone up over the past decade. After it went down under Labour.
If people are able to afford their own home they are more likely to vote for the Tory government. It is really as simple as that.
That doesn't require throwing cash at every problem. Just the right ones.
Nope, it's cash that is required - the fact is that while a lot of people own property round here that's because we can afford to buy - house prices for a good 3 bedroom house are £150,000 rather than the £300,000 elsewhere.
However we do need decent jobs and that requires infrastructure spending to bring in the investment which does mean a wall of money is required to make up for 30 years of underinvestment due to the biased tests favouring investment in London and the South rather than the midlands and the North.
I logged on this morning and to be honest it was like a remainer's wake but I do accept that this Christmas has seen an end to their dreams.
To be honest we just need to move on, some will never do so, but I suspect the vast majority will be pleased it has been brought to a deal conclusion
Of course in all deals there are wins and losses but I fully expect Boris to embrace a very pro climate change pro sustainable farming policy and through climate change strike up a relationship with Joe Biden impossible with Trump
As far as Eramus is concerned my granddaughter was due to study in Italy in 2023 but I have little doubt the Turing replacement will provide opportunities not only within Europe but world wide
And as far as Boris is concerned his detractors and enemies may have to get used to him being PM for quite a long time
You'll probably get your "moving on" wish fulfilled in most sections of the Clapham Omnibus but far less so in committed, high octane places such as here.
Re your last sentence, 100% agree. Boris "80 seat" Johnson is going precisely nowhere. My biggest current political bet is on him still being PM on 1st July 2022. I'm on at an average 1.85 and I'm treating it mentally like money in the bank. You can get 1.72 or something now and I simply cannot recommend that bet enough. It's outstanding value. If you don't want to wait 18 months for the full return it will be layable back at 1.4 or less by Easter.
I agree and of course there will always be an element of those who cannot comprehend us being outside the EU but the vast majority will move on and some like myself breath a sigh of relief we have turned the page
As for Boris he has never been stronger in his party and he does seem to be rediscovering his mojo.
The climate conference is a huge world event here in Glasgow and he is the host, so I cannot imagine he will move on before that and indeed it is even possible he may contest the 2024 election
If he had been responsible for a no deal I believe he would not have lasted long into 2021
Well "moving on" from the wild and regular overestimation of the never more than 5% probability of a No Deal is something I do very much welcome. I need a new bugbear now though.
Has anyone properly congratulated on you for being right all along?
Hello, Alex. Thanks for mention. Yes, I think I've accrued as much kudos as I could reasonably have hoped. I'm happy.
Will put a bit of it back on the table now with a prediction that the Dems, contrary to what the odds are saying, will pull off the Georgia double.
Sorry to burst your bubble but you were wrong and I was right.
You were claiming that No Deal wasn't happening because the UK couldn't let it happen and so would sign EU terms and could have done so months ago.
I said if the UK stood firm then the EU wouldn't want No Deal because we hold the Aces.
On any impartial reading of the compromises the deal is far more what the UK was asking for months ago than what the EU was. So standing firm worked and you my friend were completely and utterly wrong.
There isn't a chance on earth this compromise could have been reached months ago.
I logged on this morning and to be honest it was like a remainer's wake but I do accept that this Christmas has seen an end to their dreams.
To be honest we just need to move on, some will never do so, but I suspect the vast majority will be pleased it has been brought to a deal conclusion
Of course in all deals there are wins and losses but I fully expect Boris to embrace a very pro climate change pro sustainable farming policy and through climate change strike up a relationship with Joe Biden impossible with Trump
As far as Eramus is concerned my granddaughter was due to study in Italy in 2023 but I have little doubt the Turing replacement will provide opportunities not only within Europe but world wide
And as far as Boris is concerned his detractors and enemies may have to get used to him being PM for quite a long time
You'll probably get your "moving on" wish fulfilled in most sections of the Clapham Omnibus but far less so in committed, high octane places such as here.
Re your last sentence, 100% agree. Boris "80 seat" Johnson is going precisely nowhere. My biggest current political bet is on him still being PM on 1st July 2022. I'm on at an average 1.85 and I'm treating it mentally like money in the bank. You can get 1.72 or something now and I simply cannot recommend that bet enough. It's outstanding value. If you don't want to wait 18 months for the full return it will be layable back at 1.4 or less by Easter.
I agree and of course there will always be an element of those who cannot comprehend us being outside the EU but the vast majority will move on and some like myself breath a sigh of relief we have turned the page
As for Boris he has never been stronger in his party and he does seem to be rediscovering his mojo.
The climate conference is a huge world event here in Glasgow and he is the host, so I cannot imagine he will move on before that and indeed it is even possible he may contest the 2024 election
If he had been responsible for a no deal I believe he would not have lasted long into 2021
Well "moving on" from the wild and regular overestimation of the never more than 5% probability of a No Deal is something I do very much welcome. I need a new bugbear now though.
Has anyone properly congratulated on you for being right all along?
Hello, Alex. Thanks for mention. Yes, I think I've accrued as much kudos as I could reasonably have hoped. I'm happy.
Will put a bit of it back on the table now with a prediction that the Dems, contrary to what the odds are saying, will pull off the Georgia double.
I think Erasmus is itself fairly marginal, but what it does show how much lying was necessary for Brexit to get through, and how many contradictory statements were made.
The big one though is the general direction of travel. Accepting the LPF with all its European standards etc closes down the Libertarian trashing of regulation, in favour of one of two options: Standstill in alignment (in which case why did we bother?) or a shift in the direction of protectionism and autarky, though even that is constrained too.
I have always expected for Brexit to end with a whimper rather than a bang, and rusting out rather than busting out.
For me, as I've posted before, "escaping" the EU will have been (at best) a monumental waste of time and energy unless in the coming years we choose a political direction that would have been forbidden or severely constrained by membership. Right now all it really boils down to is ending FOM and repatriating fish, at a price of making trade & commerce with Europe harder to do.
Re 'political direction', I'm not talking about trade deals with various far flung places, or with the US, all of that stuff is relatively trivial, never ceases to amaze me the column inches it gets, I'm talking about real radical departure from the EU template of strongly regulated market capitalism with a largish tax & spend welfare state and socially liberal mores.
So, will we go sharp Right to a much smaller state, bonfire of red tape, free ports, low tax, privatized services, etc? Or sharp Left with eg something along the lines of Labour's 2019 manifesto? Given Brexit is essentially a project of the reactionary Tory Right, the first must be more likely than the second, but my bet is neither. I don't think there is public appetite for any of that monkey business here. I think I agree with what you posted the other day. This deal is a foundation to build on with the EU and from here we will converge rather than diverge further. We'll keep working our way back to EU, babe.
yes does not make any sense brexit unless we do something different that we could not do before.TBF Boris is as inventive as any current politician in having a potential go at this but I doubt much will emerge from anyone . As you said Brexit is at best a monumental waste of time and at worst a backwards step into insularity and lost individual opportunity
I logged on this morning and to be honest it was like a remainer's wake but I do accept that this Christmas has seen an end to their dreams.
To be honest we just need to move on, some will never do so, but I suspect the vast majority will be pleased it has been brought to a deal conclusion
Of course in all deals there are wins and losses but I fully expect Boris to embrace a very pro climate change pro sustainable farming policy and through climate change strike up a relationship with Joe Biden impossible with Trump
As far as Eramus is concerned my granddaughter was due to study in Italy in 2023 but I have little doubt the Turing replacement will provide opportunities not only within Europe but world wide
And as far as Boris is concerned his detractors and enemies may have to get used to him being PM for quite a long time
You'll probably get your "moving on" wish fulfilled in most sections of the Clapham Omnibus but far less so in committed, high octane places such as here.
Re your last sentence, 100% agree. Boris "80 seat" Johnson is going precisely nowhere. My biggest current political bet is on him still being PM on 1st July 2022. I'm on at an average 1.85 and I'm treating it mentally like money in the bank. You can get 1.72 or something now and I simply cannot recommend that bet enough. It's outstanding value. If you don't want to wait 18 months for the full return it will be layable back at 1.4 or less by Easter.
I agree and of course there will always be an element of those who cannot comprehend us being outside the EU but the vast majority will move on and some like myself breath a sigh of relief we have turned the page
As for Boris he has never been stronger in his party and he does seem to be rediscovering his mojo.
The climate conference is a huge world event here in Glasgow and he is the host, so I cannot imagine he will move on before that and indeed it is even possible he may contest the 2024 election
If he had been responsible for a no deal I believe he would not have lasted long into 2021
Well "moving on" from the wild and regular overestimation of the never more than 5% probability of a No Deal is something I do very much welcome. I need a new bugbear now though.
Has anyone properly congratulated on you for being right all along?
Hello, Alex. Thanks for mention. Yes, I think I've accrued as much kudos as I could reasonably have hoped. I'm happy.
Will put a bit of it back on the table now with a prediction that the Dems, contrary to what the odds are saying, will pull off the Georgia double.
Sorry to burst your bubble but you were wrong and I was right.
You were claiming that No Deal wasn't happening because the UK couldn't let it happen and so would sign EU terms and could have done so months ago.
I said if the UK stood firm then the EU wouldn't want No Deal because we hold the Aces.
On any impartial reading of the compromises the deal is far more what the UK was asking for months ago than what the EU was. So standing firm worked and you my friend were completely and utterly wrong.
There isn't a chance on earth this compromise could have been reached months ago.
The deal has far more strings attached than the Canada-style deal you insisted was all we were asking for.
So we know that Erasmus is not a part of the deal. I have read on the BBC that the fisheries deal is over 5.5 years but i am not clear what percentage reduction the EU will suffer over that period. I get the impression it varies by species now.
I think we are clear that the LPF provisions will have independent international arbitration with no role for the CJEU.
We have no tariffs and no quotas and neither does the EU so we will presumably continue to run a substantial deficit.
The deal doesn't cover mutual recognition of services, clearly its biggest drawback, but it appears that we are back in the security/Schengen systems that was causing so much angst in the days before.
The sad truth is that at over 1200 pages with 800 pages of annexes I and 99.9% of the population are never going to read it. The reports I have seen so far have been little more than headlines. Has anyone come across a reasonably detailed and neutral evaluation of the deal yet?
There’s no point you either believe it’s a great deal, because you are told by those who influence you that it is, or it’s a crap deal for similar reasons. In fact minds were made up before the deal was reached. I doubt if even more than 19% of MPs will read it let alone the public. I have seen one good thing in it though which is a replacement for EHIC and imthinkisaw something on pet passports, neither bother me personally but do many.
I think that that is overly cynical and that there will be good things and bad for either side to point to although I accept that many, perhaps most, will have their minds made up in advance regardless of the detail.
My overall impression is that the EU has backed down on a number of substantive points and the UK has backed down a bit on fish to get this over the line. It seems to me that the government has got more of what it wanted than I would have expected but the devil will be in the tedious detail and it may be that some of those headline "wins" are not in fact as good as they appear.
The most important aspect is whether this deal will drain some of the poison out of the EU/UK relationship and allow us more constructive engagement going forward. I thought Gove was spot on about that this morning.
The biggest surprise to me is that the EU settled for a win on fish and in return the UK got a much bigger win on the LPF and arbitration. What's even more odd is that they also agreed to no cross sector retaliation if/when the UK reduces EU quotas after 5.5 years with tariffs limited to fishing so it gives the government licence to do what it wants on fish after 5.5 years and just live with some level of tariffs set by the arbitration process.
Lots of continuity remainers talking about the EU keeping the UK in its orbit, but so far there is not a lot of evidence for that. Their original proposal of ECJ jurisdiction and supremacy of EU law over the treaty would have meant that for sure but the EU have given that away as well.
I'm honestly quite surprised by how well Frost and his team have done. The whole team deserve a lot of praise for what they've achieved. Getting Boris to speak to Ursula at the end to sideline Barnier for the final three issues was surely the best bit of politicking of the whole process. On the LPF and governance Frost has completely run rings around Barnier and Barnier has sold the deal to the French by giving them a victory on fish whole Ursula and Riso were in the room agreeing to UK demand for arbitration, no cross sectoral retaliation and arbitrator led tariffs.
I am glad you share my impression Max. Much of what I have read seems almost too good to be true and contains much that we were being assured was "impossible" 48 hours ago. It is this that makes me want to read into the detail a bit.
I completely agree that bypassing Barnier with Boris dealing direct with von Leyen appears to have been a masterstroke. A deal was always much more in the EU's interest than they were ready to admit and she has clearly not allowed herself to be distracted from the main chance. Credit to her too for that.
Mistake for Lab to bang on about Erasmus I suspect. Not relevant to most people's lives.
Are they banging on about it? I have reservations about leaving Erasmus, but the only people I see banging about it are Remainers who need a grievance to prove they were “right”*
*(They were and are right, but not especially about Erasmus).
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
I'm a LibDem. We aren't in it to win it.
Address the point. Our government will not be replacing the money invested into regions and sectors like farming. Your democratic vote bit would be fine were it not for people like HYUFD who wants to crush the Scots and anyone who isn't a White Anglican life-long Tory like he is.
What I am saying is that having voted to leave the EU people in regions will now witness the cash sucking out of their areas, scratch their heads and wonder what happened to the benefits they were promised. I don't think they will vote for Keith and his Labour Party. I don't think they will vote for the Tories who have massively led them down the garden path. I worry that they will look for more extreme solutions such as that offered by the Nigel is his Sink the Migrants Party.
Ok, I suppose we will have to examine what actually does happen to EU cash.
West Wales and the Valleys (one of the poorest areas in Western Europe) received Objective One funding from 2000 onwards.
What happened to that money? Well, one clue is that West Wales & the Valleys was one of the most Brexity areas in the entire UK. That is already an indication that something went VERY seriously wrong.
At the end of 2009, after the spending of nearly a decade of Objective One funds, West Wales & the Valleys was significantly poorer. The per capita income of West Wales and the Valleys had gone DOWN, not up.
Of course, this did not happen in many ObjectiveOne areas, like Poland.
West Wales & the Valleys were just one of a handful of areas where this happened -- where the economy deteriorated despite the Objective One package. (The others were mainly in mafia-ridden Southern Italy, where levels of political corruption and cronyism are comparable to Wales)
Devolved Wales is a very strange place -- with its politics and economy invisible to the rest of the UK.
The Tories are not interested in Wales. The Labour Party are certainly not interested in any scrutiny of their management. The LibDems have been eradicated. And Plaid Cymru are impotent.
But, I don't think most people in Wales will notice the vanishing of the Objective One cash, because it was being almost wholly wasted.
Am glad to report that Mrs Walker seems to be through the worst of COVID, and, fingers crossed, so is Master (18 months) Walker.
My self and Miss (6 years old) Walker have tested negative. But we are all confined until 1 January earliest.
Obviously Christmas was rather grim, but friends delivered a socially distanced roast chicken and lobster(!).
Thank-you PBers for the many kind wishes.
On topic: Keir is obviously right to vote for the deal, even though it sticks in my Remainer craw. Voting against is tantamount to voting No Deal or a vote against Brexit itself.
Brexit is now dead - thank god - I hope we can get on with discussing with the post-pandemic, post-Brexit Britain of 2030 should look like.
Glad to hear that recovery is on the way. Hope Mrs Gardenwalker could taste the lobster.
I know quite a few households where only part of the house caught it. I think it down to the dispersion factor, and most people not infecting anyone.
I logged on this morning and to be honest it was like a remainer's wake but I do accept that this Christmas has seen an end to their dreams.
To be honest we just need to move on, some will never do so, but I suspect the vast majority will be pleased it has been brought to a deal conclusion
Of course in all deals there are wins and losses but I fully expect Boris to embrace a very pro climate change pro sustainable farming policy and through climate change strike up a relationship with Joe Biden impossible with Trump
As far as Eramus is concerned my granddaughter was due to study in Italy in 2023 but I have little doubt the Turing replacement will provide opportunities not only within Europe but world wide
And as far as Boris is concerned his detractors and enemies may have to get used to him being PM for quite a long time
You'll probably get your "moving on" wish fulfilled in most sections of the Clapham Omnibus but far less so in committed, high octane places such as here.
Re your last sentence, 100% agree. Boris "80 seat" Johnson is going precisely nowhere. My biggest current political bet is on him still being PM on 1st July 2022. I'm on at an average 1.85 and I'm treating it mentally like money in the bank. You can get 1.72 or something now and I simply cannot recommend that bet enough. It's outstanding value. If you don't want to wait 18 months for the full return it will be layable back at 1.4 or less by Easter.
I agree and of course there will always be an element of those who cannot comprehend us being outside the EU but the vast majority will move on and some like myself breath a sigh of relief we have turned the page
As for Boris he has never been stronger in his party and he does seem to be rediscovering his mojo.
The climate conference is a huge world event here in Glasgow and he is the host, so I cannot imagine he will move on before that and indeed it is even possible he may contest the 2024 election
If he had been responsible for a no deal I believe he would not have lasted long into 2021
Well "moving on" from the wild and regular overestimation of the never more than 5% probability of a No Deal is something I do very much welcome. I need a new bugbear now though.
Has anyone properly congratulated on you for being right all along?
Not just Brexiteers. I said all along that I thought this was playacting from Johnson and that we would have a deal.
I wish I shared Alex's confidence about Georgia. As many of you know, I'm on Jon Ossoff at 2:1 from before November but I'm not oozing a lot of confidence.
I logged on this morning and to be honest it was like a remainer's wake but I do accept that this Christmas has seen an end to their dreams.
To be honest we just need to move on, some will never do so, but I suspect the vast majority will be pleased it has been brought to a deal conclusion
Of course in all deals there are wins and losses but I fully expect Boris to embrace a very pro climate change pro sustainable farming policy and through climate change strike up a relationship with Joe Biden impossible with Trump
As far as Eramus is concerned my granddaughter was due to study in Italy in 2023 but I have little doubt the Turing replacement will provide opportunities not only within Europe but world wide
And as far as Boris is concerned his detractors and enemies may have to get used to him being PM for quite a long time
Actually not so sure. It would not surprise me if he stood down during the course of this year - nor would it make me unhappy to see the first Tory Asian PM.
The Saj will be happy to see your predication of a comeback.
Although maybe it's not such a Priti picture for him.....
So we know that Erasmus is not a part of the deal. I have read on the BBC that the fisheries deal is over 5.5 years but i am not clear what percentage reduction the EU will suffer over that period. I get the impression it varies by species now.
I think we are clear that the LPF provisions will have independent international arbitration with no role for the CJEU.
We have no tariffs and no quotas and neither does the EU so we will presumably continue to run a substantial deficit.
The deal doesn't cover mutual recognition of services, clearly its biggest drawback, but it appears that we are back in the security/Schengen systems that was causing so much angst in the days before.
The sad truth is that at over 1200 pages with 800 pages of annexes I and 99.9% of the population are never going to read it. The reports I have seen so far have been little more than headlines. Has anyone come across a reasonably detailed and neutral evaluation of the deal yet?
There’s no point you either believe it’s a great deal, because you are told by those who influence you that it is, or it’s a crap deal for similar reasons. In fact minds were made up before the deal was reached. I doubt if even more than 19% of MPs will read it let alone the public. I have seen one good thing in it though which is a replacement for EHIC and imthinkisaw something on pet passports, neither bother me personally but do many.
I think that that is overly cynical and that there will be good things and bad for either side to point to although I accept that many, perhaps most, will have their minds made up in advance regardless of the detail.
My overall impression is that the EU has backed down on a number of substantive points and the UK has backed down a bit on fish to get this over the line. It seems to me that the government has got more of what it wanted than I would have expected but the devil will be in the tedious detail and it may be that some of those headline "wins" are not in fact as good as they appear.
The most important aspect is whether this deal will drain some of the poison out of the EU/UK relationship and allow us more constructive engagement going forward. I thought Gove was spot on about that this morning.
Sadly I don’t think it will.
Britain has not been used to living next door to a continental power since about 1800 (with a brief interlude in the 1940s).
I expect the EU will continue to be a whipping boy for the right-wing popular press, and that the U.K. governments will continue to fail to invest in the various forms of diplomatic capital necessary to build the most effective links with the EU.
Well we will see. We now have new opportunities but we have had opportunities before (not least in the EU) and failed to seize them. I am more hopeful than you but nothing is guaranteed or inevitable.
I just read in the Economist's publication of the World in 2021 that only four years ago Britain's passport was the most powerful in the world (in the sense of being able to go to the most countries without a visa) .From 1st January we are down to about 30th.
Sad and a bad consequence for individual freedom because of Brexit
Mistake for Lab to bang on about Erasmus I suspect. Not relevant to most people's lives.
Non-political types I follow on Twitter are asking if this is really a big deal. FBPE Twitter is having kittens about it. As someone who works in Education, it isn't as big a deal as PBPE Twitter is making it out to be.
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
I'm a LibDem. We aren't in it to win it.
Address the point. Our government will not be replacing the money invested into regions and sectors like farming. Your democratic vote bit would be fine were it not for people like HYUFD who wants to crush the Scots and anyone who isn't a White Anglican life-long Tory like he is.
What I am saying is that having voted to leave the EU people in regions will now witness the cash sucking out of their areas, scratch their heads and wonder what happened to the benefits they were promised. I don't think they will vote for Keith and his Labour Party. I don't think they will vote for the Tories who have massively led them down the garden path. I worry that they will look for more extreme solutions such as that offered by the Nigel is his Sink the Migrants Party.
I despise HYUFD and everything he represents. If the Tory Party was genuinely what HYUFD stands for I would join the Liberal Democrats immediately.
But HYUFD is HYUFD not the Party.
If cash is sucked out of the region's then I am glad we have First Past the Post - the region's should elect MPs to stand up for their region.
Under FPTP regions do elect MPs who stand up for their region. HYUFD then tells them to bugger off.
As he puts it, the only way paupers in the regions can have any cash is to elect a Tory MP.
HYUFD isn't an MP let alone 326 of then.
Whom each constituency matters more than a single Blue Corbynite from Epping Forest
HYUFD is a distraction. The reality is that if these poor places don't vote for a Tory MP then they will get Fuck All. And the poor places that DO vote for a Tory MP get thrown a much smaller amount of cash than required / previously had. Either way, the cash is gone.
The Tories have a real challenge - they need to cement themselves into Purple Wall seats and to deliver genuine long term benefits having left the EU. That will take an ocean of cash, they don't have an ocean of cash and even if they did they will give it to their mates rather than to regional proles.
Cash is a distraction too.
The reason the wall turned purple isn't throwing cash at it or even Brexit (it's been trending that way for a decade).
It is that Tory stewardship of the economy has helped the purple wall.
If you look at the share of people able to get their own home in the purple wall that has gone up over the past decade. After it went down under Labour.
If people are able to afford their own home they are more likely to vote for the Tory government. It is really as simple as that.
That doesn't require throwing cash at every problem. Just the right ones.
Nope, it's cash that is required - the fact is that while a lot of people own property round here that's because we can afford to buy - house prices for a good 3 bedroom house are £150,000 rather than the £300,000 elsewhere.
However we do need decent jobs and that requires infrastructure spending to bring in the investment which does mean a wall of money is required to make up for 30 years of underinvestment due to the biased tests favouring investment in London and the South rather than the midlands and the North.
Decent jobs are needed to pay for the £150k homes yes but the market is after a decade of Tory government providing more of them than it was when Labour lost power.
There's a reason home ownership has gone up under the Tories and went down under Labour and that is what is swinging constituencies like mine.
For the past decade houses have been constructed around here left, right and centre and that has kept a lid on house prices and seen people moving in and buying and settling down with their families. Which encourages Tory votes.
We don't need white elephants. We don't need surging house prices. We need the basics done right it is as simple as that. That is what is seeing the wall turn purple - the economy working better for the people who live here.
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
I'm a LibDem. We aren't in it to win it.
Address the point. Our government will not be replacing the money invested into regions and sectors like farming. Your democratic vote bit would be fine were it not for people like HYUFD who wants to crush the Scots and anyone who isn't a White Anglican life-long Tory like he is.
What I am saying is that having voted to leave the EU people in regions will now witness the cash sucking out of their areas, scratch their heads and wonder what happened to the benefits they were promised. I don't think they will vote for Keith and his Labour Party. I don't think they will vote for the Tories who have massively led them down the garden path. I worry that they will look for more extreme solutions such as that offered by the Nigel is his Sink the Migrants Party.
I despise HYUFD and everything he represents. If the Tory Party was genuinely what HYUFD stands for I would join the Liberal Democrats immediately.
But HYUFD is HYUFD not the Party.
If cash is sucked out of the region's then I am glad we have First Past the Post - the region's should elect MPs to stand up for their region.
Under FPTP regions do elect MPs who stand up for their region. HYUFD then tells them to bugger off.
As he puts it, the only way paupers in the regions can have any cash is to elect a Tory MP.
HYUFD isn't an MP let alone 326 of then.
Whom each constituency matters more than a single Blue Corbynite from Epping Forest
HYUFD is a distraction. The reality is that if these poor places don't vote for a Tory MP then they will get Fuck All. And the poor places that DO vote for a Tory MP get thrown a much smaller amount of cash than required / previously had. Either way, the cash is gone.
The Tories have a real challenge - they need to cement themselves into Purple Wall seats and to deliver genuine long term benefits having left the EU. That will take an ocean of cash, they don't have an ocean of cash and even if they did they will give it to their mates rather than to regional proles.
The problem for the new year for the Conservatives will be controlling the media narrative. There will need to be concrete and tangible good news stories about Brexit for those communities to offset what will be happening, inevitably, both with gradually greater scrutiny of the terms of the deal itself, and the inevitable run of bad economic news that will be coming in in the first year. Johnson has made the most of the current moment, but it will be tough for the Conservatives.
So we know that Erasmus is not a part of the deal. I have read on the BBC that the fisheries deal is over 5.5 years but i am not clear what percentage reduction the EU will suffer over that period. I get the impression it varies by species now.
I think we are clear that the LPF provisions will have independent international arbitration with no role for the CJEU.
We have no tariffs and no quotas and neither does the EU so we will presumably continue to run a substantial deficit.
The deal doesn't cover mutual recognition of services, clearly its biggest drawback, but it appears that we are back in the security/Schengen systems that was causing so much angst in the days before.
The sad truth is that at over 1200 pages with 800 pages of annexes I and 99.9% of the population are never going to read it. The reports I have seen so far have been little more than headlines. Has anyone come across a reasonably detailed and neutral evaluation of the deal yet?
There’s no point you either believe it’s a great deal, because you are told by those who influence you that it is, or it’s a crap deal for similar reasons. In fact minds were made up before the deal was reached. I doubt if even more than 19% of MPs will read it let alone the public. I have seen one good thing in it though which is a replacement for EHIC and imthinkisaw something on pet passports, neither bother me personally but do many.
I think that that is overly cynical and that there will be good things and bad for either side to point to although I accept that many, perhaps most, will have their minds made up in advance regardless of the detail.
My overall impression is that the EU has backed down on a number of substantive points and the UK has backed down a bit on fish to get this over the line. It seems to me that the government has got more of what it wanted than I would have expected but the devil will be in the tedious detail and it may be that some of those headline "wins" are not in fact as good as they appear.
The most important aspect is whether this deal will drain some of the poison out of the EU/UK relationship and allow us more constructive engagement going forward. I thought Gove was spot on about that this morning.
The biggest surprise to me is that the EU settled for a win on fish and in return the UK got a much bigger win on the LPF and arbitration. What's even more odd is that they also agreed to no cross sector retaliation if/when the UK reduces EU quotas after 5.5 years with tariffs limited to fishing so it gives the government licence to do what it wants on fish after 5.5 years and just live with some level of tariffs set by the arbitration process.
Lots of continuity remainers talking about the EU keeping the UK in its orbit, but so far there is not a lot of evidence for that. Their original proposal of ECJ jurisdiction and supremacy of EU law over the treaty would have meant that for sure but the EU have given that away as well.
I'm honestly quite surprised by how well Frost and his team have done. The whole team deserve a lot of praise for what they've achieved. Getting Boris to speak to Ursula at the end to sideline Barnier for the final three issues was surely the best bit of politicking of the whole process. On the LPF and governance Frost has completely run rings around Barnier and Barnier has sold the deal to the French by giving them a victory on fish whole Ursula and Riso were in the room agreeing to UK demand for arbitration, no cross sectoral retaliation and arbitrator led tariffs.
I am glad you share my impression Max. Much of what I have read seems almost too good to be true and contains much that we were being assured was "impossible" 48 hours ago. It is this that makes me want to read into the detail a bit.
I completely agree that bypassing Barnier with Boris dealing direct with von Leyen appears to have been a masterstroke. A deal was always much more in the EU's interest than they were ready to admit and she has clearly not allowed herself to be distracted from the main chance. Credit to her too for that.
Yes, I've been very impressed by UVdL, honestly if she was commission president when Dave was negotiating the now infamous deal I think we probably would have got a deal worthy of a remain vote. Between Junker and Tusk and their love of "punishment beatings" the EU alienated a lot of people like us who would have voted to stay had the EU recognised the issues we (and many other nations) had with the existing membership terms.
Am glad to report that Mrs Walker seems to be through the worst of COVID, and, fingers crossed, so is Master (18 months) Walker.
My self and Miss (6 years old) Walker have tested negative. But we are all confined until 1 January earliest.
Obviously Christmas was rather grim, but friends delivered a socially distanced roast chicken and lobster(!).
Thank-you PBers for the many kind wishes.
On topic: Keir is obviously right to vote for the deal, even though it sticks in my Remainer craw. Voting against is tantamount to voting No Deal or a vote against Brexit itself.
Brexit is now dead - thank god - I hope we can get on with discussing with the post-pandemic, post-Brexit Britain of 2030 should look like.
I didn't realise that you had been having quite so many troubles. Glad to hear things are on the mend. Here's hoping for a happier, less fractious and more profitable 2021 for us all when it comes.
So we know that Erasmus is not a part of the deal. I have read on the BBC that the fisheries deal is over 5.5 years but i am not clear what percentage reduction the EU will suffer over that period. I get the impression it varies by species now.
I think we are clear that the LPF provisions will have independent international arbitration with no role for the CJEU.
We have no tariffs and no quotas and neither does the EU so we will presumably continue to run a substantial deficit.
The deal doesn't cover mutual recognition of services, clearly its biggest drawback, but it appears that we are back in the security/Schengen systems that was causing so much angst in the days before.
The sad truth is that at over 1200 pages with 800 pages of annexes I and 99.9% of the population are never going to read it. The reports I have seen so far have been little more than headlines. Has anyone come across a reasonably detailed and neutral evaluation of the deal yet?
There’s no point you either believe it’s a great deal, because you are told by those who influence you that it is, or it’s a crap deal for similar reasons. In fact minds were made up before the deal was reached. I doubt if even more than 19% of MPs will read it let alone the public. I have seen one good thing in it though which is a replacement for EHIC and imthinkisaw something on pet passports, neither bother me personally but do many.
I think that that is overly cynical and that there will be good things and bad for either side to point to although I accept that many, perhaps most, will have their minds made up in advance regardless of the detail.
My overall impression is that the EU has backed down on a number of substantive points and the UK has backed down a bit on fish to get this over the line. It seems to me that the government has got more of what it wanted than I would have expected but the devil will be in the tedious detail and it may be that some of those headline "wins" are not in fact as good as they appear.
The most important aspect is whether this deal will drain some of the poison out of the EU/UK relationship and allow us more constructive engagement going forward. I thought Gove was spot on about that this morning.
The biggest surprise to me is that the EU settled for a win on fish and in return the UK got a much bigger win on the LPF and arbitration. What's even more odd is that they also agreed to no cross sector retaliation if/when the UK reduces EU quotas after 5.5 years with tariffs limited to fishing so it gives the government licence to do what it wants on fish after 5.5 years and just live with some level of tariffs set by the arbitration process.
Lots of continuity remainers talking about the EU keeping the UK in its orbit, but so far there is not a lot of evidence for that. Their original proposal of ECJ jurisdiction and supremacy of EU law over the treaty would have meant that for sure but the EU have given that away as well.
I'm honestly quite surprised by how well Frost and his team have done. The whole team deserve a lot of praise for what they've achieved. Getting Boris to speak to Ursula at the end to sideline Barnier for the final three issues was surely the best bit of politicking of the whole process. On the LPF and governance Frost has completely run rings around Barnier and Barnier has sold the deal to the French by giving them a victory on fish whole Ursula and Riso were in the room agreeing to UK demand for arbitration, no cross sectoral retaliation and arbitrator led tariffs.
I am glad you share my impression Max. Much of what I have read seems almost too good to be true and contains much that we were being assured was "impossible" 48 hours ago. It is this that makes me want to read into the detail a bit.
I completely agree that bypassing Barnier with Boris dealing direct with von Leyen appears to have been a masterstroke. A deal was always much more in the EU's interest than they were ready to admit and she has clearly not allowed herself to be distracted from the main chance. Credit to her too for that.
It's precisely what some of us were saying for years. The party prepared to walk away holds the cards - and under Boris that was him and not Von Der Leyen.
We would never have gotten this deal with May and Robbins.
Mistake for Lab to bang on about Erasmus I suspect. Not relevant to most people's lives.
Are they banging on about it? I have reservations about leaving Erasmus, but the only people I see banging about it are Remainers who need a grievance to prove they were “right”*
*(They were and are right, but not especially about Erasmus).
Quite right - it is not Labour as far as I can see.
I hope Starmer finds something concrete to attack that will resonate more widely.
I logged on this morning and to be honest it was like a remainer's wake but I do accept that this Christmas has seen an end to their dreams.
To be honest we just need to move on, some will never do so, but I suspect the vast majority will be pleased it has been brought to a deal conclusion
Of course in all deals there are wins and losses but I fully expect Boris to embrace a very pro climate change pro sustainable farming policy and through climate change strike up a relationship with Joe Biden impossible with Trump
As far as Eramus is concerned my granddaughter was due to study in Italy in 2023 but I have little doubt the Turing replacement will provide opportunities not only within Europe but world wide
And as far as Boris is concerned his detractors and enemies may have to get used to him being PM for quite a long time
You'll probably get your "moving on" wish fulfilled in most sections of the Clapham Omnibus but far less so in committed, high octane places such as here.
Re your last sentence, 100% agree. Boris "80 seat" Johnson is going precisely nowhere. My biggest current political bet is on him still being PM on 1st July 2022. I'm on at an average 1.85 and I'm treating it mentally like money in the bank. You can get 1.72 or something now and I simply cannot recommend that bet enough. It's outstanding value. If you don't want to wait 18 months for the full return it will be layable back at 1.4 or less by Easter.
I agree and of course there will always be an element of those who cannot comprehend us being outside the EU but the vast majority will move on and some like myself breath a sigh of relief we have turned the page
As for Boris he has never been stronger in his party and he does seem to be rediscovering his mojo.
The climate conference is a huge world event here in Glasgow and he is the host, so I cannot imagine he will move on before that and indeed it is even possible he may contest the 2024 election
If he had been responsible for a no deal I believe he would not have lasted long into 2021
Well "moving on" from the wild and regular overestimation of the never more than 5% probability of a No Deal is something I do very much welcome. I need a new bugbear now though.
Has anyone properly congratulated on you for being right all along?
Hello, Alex. Thanks for mention. Yes, I think I've accrued as much kudos as I could reasonably have hoped. I'm happy.
Will put a bit of it back on the table now with a prediction that the Dems, contrary to what the odds are saying, will pull off the Georgia double.
Sorry to burst your bubble but you were wrong and I was right.
You were claiming that No Deal wasn't happening because the UK couldn't let it happen and so would sign EU terms and could have done so months ago.
I said if the UK stood firm then the EU wouldn't want No Deal because we hold the Aces.
On any impartial reading of the compromises the deal is far more what the UK was asking for months ago than what the EU was. So standing firm worked and you my friend were completely and utterly wrong.
There isn't a chance on earth this compromise could have been reached months ago.
It's one interpretation. Another is that the EU are quite content with the final outcome and always knew what they were prepared to give way on. But needed to be sure that the UK actually wanted a deal in order to do so (and didn't just get overconfident and start pushing for more beyond where the EU would go). It appears that the last few months, with the constant threats to walk away, setting deadlines and then ditching them rapidly, convinced them that there would be a deal and they just had to be careful to ensure their end state was secured.
And that is not in any way to say that they "won". Maybe the deal genuinely gives both sides what they wanted/are content with. Maybe they were just very good at keeping their real red lines secret, leaving what they were ok to give way on for public consumption.
So we know that Erasmus is not a part of the deal. I have read on the BBC that the fisheries deal is over 5.5 years but i am not clear what percentage reduction the EU will suffer over that period. I get the impression it varies by species now.
I think we are clear that the LPF provisions will have independent international arbitration with no role for the CJEU.
We have no tariffs and no quotas and neither does the EU so we will presumably continue to run a substantial deficit.
The deal doesn't cover mutual recognition of services, clearly its biggest drawback, but it appears that we are back in the security/Schengen systems that was causing so much angst in the days before.
The sad truth is that at over 1200 pages with 800 pages of annexes I and 99.9% of the population are never going to read it. The reports I have seen so far have been little more than headlines. Has anyone come across a reasonably detailed and neutral evaluation of the deal yet?
There’s no point you either believe it’s a great deal, because you are told by those who influence you that it is, or it’s a crap deal for similar reasons. In fact minds were made up before the deal was reached. I doubt if even more than 19% of MPs will read it let alone the public. I have seen one good thing in it though which is a replacement for EHIC and imthinkisaw something on pet passports, neither bother me personally but do many.
I think that that is overly cynical and that there will be good things and bad for either side to point to although I accept that many, perhaps most, will have their minds made up in advance regardless of the detail.
My overall impression is that the EU has backed down on a number of substantive points and the UK has backed down a bit on fish to get this over the line. It seems to me that the government has got more of what it wanted than I would have expected but the devil will be in the tedious detail and it may be that some of those headline "wins" are not in fact as good as they appear.
The most important aspect is whether this deal will drain some of the poison out of the EU/UK relationship and allow us more constructive engagement going forward. I thought Gove was spot on about that this morning.
The biggest surprise to me is that the EU settled for a win on fish and in return the UK got a much bigger win on the LPF and arbitration. What's even more odd is that they also agreed to no cross sector retaliation if/when the UK reduces EU quotas after 5.5 years with tariffs limited to fishing so it gives the government licence to do what it wants on fish after 5.5 years and just live with some level of tariffs set by the arbitration process.
Lots of continuity remainers talking about the EU keeping the UK in its orbit, but so far there is not a lot of evidence for that. Their original proposal of ECJ jurisdiction and supremacy of EU law over the treaty would have meant that for sure but the EU have given that away as well.
I'm honestly quite surprised by how well Frost and his team have done. The whole team deserve a lot of praise for what they've achieved. Getting Boris to speak to Ursula at the end to sideline Barnier for the final three issues was surely the best bit of politicking of the whole process. On the LPF and governance Frost has completely run rings around Barnier and Barnier has sold the deal to the French by giving them a victory on fish whole Ursula and Riso were in the room agreeing to UK demand for arbitration, no cross sectoral retaliation and arbitrator led tariffs.
I am glad you share my impression Max. Much of what I have read seems almost too good to be true and contains much that we were being assured was "impossible" 48 hours ago. It is this that makes me want to read into the detail a bit.
I completely agree that bypassing Barnier with Boris dealing direct with von Leyen appears to have been a masterstroke. A deal was always much more in the EU's interest than they were ready to admit and she has clearly not allowed herself to be distracted from the main chance. Credit to her too for that.
Yes, I've been very impressed by UVdL, honestly if she was commission president when Dave was negotiating the now infamous deal I think we probably would have got a deal worthy of a remain vote. Between Junker and Tusk and their love of "punishment beatings" the EU alienated a lot of people like us who would have voted to stay had the EU recognised the issues we (and many other nations) had with the existing membership terms.
I don't think the big difference is UVdL Vs Tusk (druncker was just an embarrassment).
I think the biggest difference is they never took Cameron seriously. They never took May seriously.
Boris was the first PM since Thatcher's handbags to seriously stand up for Britain in Europe.
If in-between Thatcher and Boris we had any other PMs as good as them we may never have needed to leave.
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
I'm a LibDem. We aren't in it to win it.
Address the point. Our government will not be replacing the money invested into regions and sectors like farming. Your democratic vote bit would be fine were it not for people like HYUFD who wants to crush the Scots and anyone who isn't a White Anglican life-long Tory like he is.
What I am saying is that having voted to leave the EU people in regions will now witness the cash sucking out of their areas, scratch their heads and wonder what happened to the benefits they were promised. I don't think they will vote for Keith and his Labour Party. I don't think they will vote for the Tories who have massively led them down the garden path. I worry that they will look for more extreme solutions such as that offered by the Nigel is his Sink the Migrants Party.
The answer to these questions is that it depends on what governments we elect in the UK and what they consider to be in their own interests. To take an obvious example Boris has an 80 seat majority because of his success in demolishing the Labour red wall of seats that they had taken for granted for too long. Many of these seats were recipients of EU funds. If those funds are not replaced then they may turn red again soon enough but my guess is that they will be not for altruistic reasons but because the Tories are (unlike the Lib Dems) absolutely in it to win it.
It's also why I disagree somewhat with @kinabalu's point. I do not detect any electoral enthusiasm for either extreme in the UK. Nearly all of us accept a fairly high spending state that seeks to create equality of opportunity with limited success. Corbyn was perhaps an exception but the difference of degree between an SKS led Labour party and a Boris led Tory party does not point to anything radical in either direction.
What I would hope for, personally, is that our policies can be more directed to what we actually want rather than schemes designed to protect French farmers or German manufacturers. So our agricultural subsidies will be focused on maintaining and renewing our countryside rather than subsidising the mass production of food, we are willing to enter into other FTAs with other countries and groups even if that makes things a bit more competitive for things we currently import from Germany. These will be gains at the margins and I accept that there may be some detriments too.
You're actually agreeing with my point, David. I too am of the opinion that veering sharply away from the EU template of what a Western European political economy looks like is not on the cards because there is not the public appetite for it.
What you might be disagreeing with is my view that in practice Brexit will prove with hindsight and in the long run to have been rather pointless. We can't know or indeed have much of a clue atm but I do think this will become the consensus assessment. Especially if we spend the next several years and election cycles broadly in lockstep and seeking greater co-operation rather than creating a whole new scene.
I logged on this morning and to be honest it was like a remainer's wake but I do accept that this Christmas has seen an end to their dreams.
To be honest we just need to move on, some will never do so, but I suspect the vast majority will be pleased it has been brought to a deal conclusion
Of course in all deals there are wins and losses but I fully expect Boris to embrace a very pro climate change pro sustainable farming policy and through climate change strike up a relationship with Joe Biden impossible with Trump
As far as Eramus is concerned my granddaughter was due to study in Italy in 2023 but I have little doubt the Turing replacement will provide opportunities not only within Europe but world wide
And as far as Boris is concerned his detractors and enemies may have to get used to him being PM for quite a long time
You'll probably get your "moving on" wish fulfilled in most sections of the Clapham Omnibus but far less so in committed, high octane places such as here.
Re your last sentence, 100% agree. Boris "80 seat" Johnson is going precisely nowhere. My biggest current political bet is on him still being PM on 1st July 2022. I'm on at an average 1.85 and I'm treating it mentally like money in the bank. You can get 1.72 or something now and I simply cannot recommend that bet enough. It's outstanding value. If you don't want to wait 18 months for the full return it will be layable back at 1.4 or less by Easter.
I agree and of course there will always be an element of those who cannot comprehend us being outside the EU but the vast majority will move on and some like myself breath a sigh of relief we have turned the page
As for Boris he has never been stronger in his party and he does seem to be rediscovering his mojo.
The climate conference is a huge world event here in Glasgow and he is the host, so I cannot imagine he will move on before that and indeed it is even possible he may contest the 2024 election
If he had been responsible for a no deal I believe he would not have lasted long into 2021
Well "moving on" from the wild and regular overestimation of the never more than 5% probability of a No Deal is something I do very much welcome. I need a new bugbear now though.
Has anyone properly congratulated on you for being right all along?
Hello, Alex. Thanks for mention. Yes, I think I've accrued as much kudos as I could reasonably have hoped. I'm happy.
Will put a bit of it back on the table now with a prediction that the Dems, contrary to what the odds are saying, will pull off the Georgia double.
Sorry to burst your bubble but you were wrong and I was right.
You were claiming that No Deal wasn't happening because the UK couldn't let it happen and so would sign EU terms and could have done so months ago.
I said if the UK stood firm then the EU wouldn't want No Deal because we hold the Aces.
On any impartial reading of the compromises the deal is far more what the UK was asking for months ago than what the EU was. So standing firm worked and you my friend were completely and utterly wrong.
There isn't a chance on earth this compromise could have been reached months ago.
The deal has far more strings attached than the Canada-style deal you insisted was all we were asking for.
This is one half of the Tories' challenges for 2021, with the gradually increased scrutiny that will come with that, as it's read through ; the other is controlling the fallout from further media events connected to a slowdown of cross-channel import and export movements, food prices, factory closures or relocations, and things like that. A pretty considerable run of happy narratives will be needed to counter that.
I logged on this morning and to be honest it was like a remainer's wake but I do accept that this Christmas has seen an end to their dreams.
To be honest we just need to move on, some will never do so, but I suspect the vast majority will be pleased it has been brought to a deal conclusion
Of course in all deals there are wins and losses but I fully expect Boris to embrace a very pro climate change pro sustainable farming policy and through climate change strike up a relationship with Joe Biden impossible with Trump
As far as Eramus is concerned my granddaughter was due to study in Italy in 2023 but I have little doubt the Turing replacement will provide opportunities not only within Europe but world wide
And as far as Boris is concerned his detractors and enemies may have to get used to him being PM for quite a long time
You'll probably get your "moving on" wish fulfilled in most sections of the Clapham Omnibus but far less so in committed, high octane places such as here.
Re your last sentence, 100% agree. Boris "80 seat" Johnson is going precisely nowhere. My biggest current political bet is on him still being PM on 1st July 2022. I'm on at an average 1.85 and I'm treating it mentally like money in the bank. You can get 1.72 or something now and I simply cannot recommend that bet enough. It's outstanding value. If you don't want to wait 18 months for the full return it will be layable back at 1.4 or less by Easter.
I agree and of course there will always be an element of those who cannot comprehend us being outside the EU but the vast majority will move on and some like myself breath a sigh of relief we have turned the page
As for Boris he has never been stronger in his party and he does seem to be rediscovering his mojo.
The climate conference is a huge world event here in Glasgow and he is the host, so I cannot imagine he will move on before that and indeed it is even possible he may contest the 2024 election
If he had been responsible for a no deal I believe he would not have lasted long into 2021
Well "moving on" from the wild and regular overestimation of the never more than 5% probability of a No Deal is something I do very much welcome. I need a new bugbear now though.
Has anyone properly congratulated on you for being right all along?
Hello, Alex. Thanks for mention. Yes, I think I've accrued as much kudos as I could reasonably have hoped. I'm happy.
Will put a bit of it back on the table now with a prediction that the Dems, contrary to what the odds are saying, will pull off the Georgia double.
Sorry to burst your bubble but you were wrong and I was right.
You were claiming that No Deal wasn't happening because the UK couldn't let it happen and so would sign EU terms and could have done so months ago.
I said if the UK stood firm then the EU wouldn't want No Deal because we hold the Aces.
On any impartial reading of the compromises the deal is far more what the UK was asking for months ago than what the EU was. So standing firm worked and you my friend were completely and utterly wrong.
There isn't a chance on earth this compromise could have been reached months ago.
The Internal Market Bill was essential to show tht Boris was just mad enough to go with No Deal. Brilliant tactics and brinksmanship. Who cares that the EU got pissed off about it for a few weeks - we were playing our hand for the biggest impact on our economy in our lives. From a point where May and Robbins had all but folded.
Mistake for Lab to bang on about Erasmus I suspect. Not relevant to most people's lives.
Are they banging on about it? I have reservations about leaving Erasmus, but the only people I see banging about it are Remainers who need a grievance to prove they were “right”*
*(They were and are right, but not especially about Erasmus).
Quite right - it is not Labour as far as I can see.
I hope Starmer finds something concrete to attack that will resonate more widely.
The North (and the Midlands) have been ignored by both Parties for a very long time.
He needs to start there.
As @YBarddCwsc reminds us, there is no evidence that Labour actually “gets” what to do with economically backward regions. Indeed, the reverse.
I logged on this morning and to be honest it was like a remainer's wake but I do accept that this Christmas has seen an end to their dreams.
To be honest we just need to move on, some will never do so, but I suspect the vast majority will be pleased it has been brought to a deal conclusion
Of course in all deals there are wins and losses but I fully expect Boris to embrace a very pro climate change pro sustainable farming policy and through climate change strike up a relationship with Joe Biden impossible with Trump
As far as Eramus is concerned my granddaughter was due to study in Italy in 2023 but I have little doubt the Turing replacement will provide opportunities not only within Europe but world wide
And as far as Boris is concerned his detractors and enemies may have to get used to him being PM for quite a long time
You'll probably get your "moving on" wish fulfilled in most sections of the Clapham Omnibus but far less so in committed, high octane places such as here.
Re your last sentence, 100% agree. Boris "80 seat" Johnson is going precisely nowhere. My biggest current political bet is on him still being PM on 1st July 2022. I'm on at an average 1.85 and I'm treating it mentally like money in the bank. You can get 1.72 or something now and I simply cannot recommend that bet enough. It's outstanding value. If you don't want to wait 18 months for the full return it will be layable back at 1.4 or less by Easter.
I agree and of course there will always be an element of those who cannot comprehend us being outside the EU but the vast majority will move on and some like myself breath a sigh of relief we have turned the page
As for Boris he has never been stronger in his party and he does seem to be rediscovering his mojo.
The climate conference is a huge world event here in Glasgow and he is the host, so I cannot imagine he will move on before that and indeed it is even possible he may contest the 2024 election
If he had been responsible for a no deal I believe he would not have lasted long into 2021
Well "moving on" from the wild and regular overestimation of the never more than 5% probability of a No Deal is something I do very much welcome. I need a new bugbear now though.
Has anyone properly congratulated on you for being right all along?
Hello, Alex. Thanks for mention. Yes, I think I've accrued as much kudos as I could reasonably have hoped. I'm happy.
Will put a bit of it back on the table now with a prediction that the Dems, contrary to what the odds are saying, will pull off the Georgia double.
Sorry to burst your bubble but you were wrong and I was right.
You were claiming that No Deal wasn't happening because the UK couldn't let it happen and so would sign EU terms and could have done so months ago.
I said if the UK stood firm then the EU wouldn't want No Deal because we hold the Aces.
On any impartial reading of the compromises the deal is far more what the UK was asking for months ago than what the EU was. So standing firm worked and you my friend were completely and utterly wrong.
There isn't a chance on earth this compromise could have been reached months ago.
The deal has far more strings attached than the Canada-style deal you insisted was all we were asking for.
No it does not. Independent arbitration and retaliatory tariffs following disputes following arbitration is pretty standard in Canada style FTAs.
The EU earlier this year said a Canada style deal was impossible. They just signed one.
What major strings attached are you seeing that we are all missing?
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Sigh. It was money we paid into a pot. Which it then chose to invest into poor places like the UK. We *could* invest in these things directly but we won't because Tories.
Then that is democracy.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
I'm a LibDem. We aren't in it to win it.
Address the point. Our government will not be replacing the money invested into regions and sectors like farming. Your democratic vote bit would be fine were it not for people like HYUFD who wants to crush the Scots and anyone who isn't a White Anglican life-long Tory like he is.
What I am saying is that having voted to leave the EU people in regions will now witness the cash sucking out of their areas, scratch their heads and wonder what happened to the benefits they were promised. I don't think they will vote for Keith and his Labour Party. I don't think they will vote for the Tories who have massively led them down the garden path. I worry that they will look for more extreme solutions such as that offered by the Nigel is his Sink the Migrants Party.
Ok, I suppose we will have to examine what actually does happen to EU cash.
West Wales and the Valleys (one of the poorest areas in Western Europe) received Objective One funding from 2000 onwards.
What happened to that money? Well, one clue is that West Wales & the Valleys was one of the most Brexity areas in the entire UK. That is already an indication that something went VERY seriously wrong.
At the end of 2009, after the spending of nearly a decade of Objective One funds, West Wales & the Valleys was significantly poorer. The per capita income of West Wales and the Valleys had gone DOWN, not up.
Of course, this did not happen in many ObjectiveOne areas, like Poland.
West Wales & the Valleys were just one of a handful of areas where this happened -- where the economy deteriorated despite the Objective One package. (The others were mainly in mafia-ridden Southern Italy, where levels of political corruption and cronyism are comparable to Wales)
Devolved Wales is a very strange place -- with its politics and economy invisible to the rest of the UK.
The Tories are not interested in Wales. The Labour Party are certainly not interested in any scrutiny of their management. The LibDems have been eradicated. And Plaid Cymru are impotent.
But, I don't think most people in Wales will notice the vanishing of the Objective One cash, because it was being almost wholly wasted.
There is a basic reality that West Wales, the Valleys, the North East, Midlands etc etc have become demonstrably poorer over the last 30 or 40 years. Yes people aren't materially poorer with their big TVs and iPhones. But opportunities? Life chances? In these places who you had as the government didn't really matter - people blamed Thatcher, voted for Blair and then ten years on wonder what happened. The pride that used to come from good honest steady work had gone and been replaced by distribution jobs in a warehouse.
Because the 1970s was such a disaster with crap management and mental unions we seem to have decided that industry is too difficult. Let someone else do it whether that be coal or steel or fishing or car/aircraft/rail manufacturing. Sure these things still exist as a shadow of what they were, but they're foreign owned now as making a quick profit short term was judged better than long term stability as the French and Germans managed.
Its no wonder that people decided to blame the EU for the mess of our own creation when they visibly still have the kind of jobs we used to have and all we have is services. The problem is that such things are very expensive to bring back and take a long time.
Labour could win back these areas with a long term vision to actually rebuild and re-equip Britain. Invest into skills, into (subsidised like the French and Germans) production, into infrastructure. Give us the things we have lost that other people have. Tories can't do it because subsidy is communism. Labour could. But probably won't.
I logged on this morning and to be honest it was like a remainer's wake but I do accept that this Christmas has seen an end to their dreams.
To be honest we just need to move on, some will never do so, but I suspect the vast majority will be pleased it has been brought to a deal conclusion
Of course in all deals there are wins and losses but I fully expect Boris to embrace a very pro climate change pro sustainable farming policy and through climate change strike up a relationship with Joe Biden impossible with Trump
As far as Eramus is concerned my granddaughter was due to study in Italy in 2023 but I have little doubt the Turing replacement will provide opportunities not only within Europe but world wide
And as far as Boris is concerned his detractors and enemies may have to get used to him being PM for quite a long time
You'll probably get your "moving on" wish fulfilled in most sections of the Clapham Omnibus but far less so in committed, high octane places such as here.
Re your last sentence, 100% agree. Boris "80 seat" Johnson is going precisely nowhere. My biggest current political bet is on him still being PM on 1st July 2022. I'm on at an average 1.85 and I'm treating it mentally like money in the bank. You can get 1.72 or something now and I simply cannot recommend that bet enough. It's outstanding value. If you don't want to wait 18 months for the full return it will be layable back at 1.4 or less by Easter.
I agree and of course there will always be an element of those who cannot comprehend us being outside the EU but the vast majority will move on and some like myself breath a sigh of relief we have turned the page
As for Boris he has never been stronger in his party and he does seem to be rediscovering his mojo.
The climate conference is a huge world event here in Glasgow and he is the host, so I cannot imagine he will move on before that and indeed it is even possible he may contest the 2024 election
If he had been responsible for a no deal I believe he would not have lasted long into 2021
Well "moving on" from the wild and regular overestimation of the never more than 5% probability of a No Deal is something I do very much welcome. I need a new bugbear now though.
Has anyone properly congratulated on you for being right all along?
Hello, Alex. Thanks for mention. Yes, I think I've accrued as much kudos as I could reasonably have hoped. I'm happy.
Will put a bit of it back on the table now with a prediction that the Dems, contrary to what the odds are saying, will pull off the Georgia double.
Sorry to burst your bubble but you were wrong and I was right.
You were claiming that No Deal wasn't happening because the UK couldn't let it happen and so would sign EU terms and could have done so months ago.
I said if the UK stood firm then the EU wouldn't want No Deal because we hold the Aces.
On any impartial reading of the compromises the deal is far more what the UK was asking for months ago than what the EU was. So standing firm worked and you my friend were completely and utterly wrong.
There isn't a chance on earth this compromise could have been reached months ago.
The Internal Market Bill was essential to show tht Boris was just mad enough to go with No Deal. Brilliant tactics and brinksmanship. Who cares that the EU got pissed off about it for a few weeks - we were playing our hand for the biggest impact on our economy in our lives. From a point where May and Robbins had all but folded.
I don’t think many people really believe this extra bit of madness was anything other than self-deafeating.
If anything it just made the EU more anxious about how to secure a level playing field.
I'm prepared to move on from Brexit and have but this is an utterly crap, nasty, decision.
That very few people will have heard of never mind care about. As the detail emerges there will be plenty of utterly crap, nasty decisions to attack them on.
My starter for 10: subsidies. A lot of people directly or indirectly benefited from a lot of European subsidies - regions and farmers. I did enjoy seeing Vote Leave signs on roads paid for by the EU when touring the Outer Hebrides for example. Lewis residents may be OK in that the Scottish government will chuck money at them. In England? Too bad - the Tories will not be stumping up the cash you have just lost. They are suggesting they will find a replacement for regions and farmers but in practice very sorry but Covid, so we're replacing your previous Pound with 10p. What do you mean that isn't enough? Bloody peasants.
There is no such thing as European subsidies.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
Just like UK except Scotland pays all it's money to England and gets a smaller fraction back.
So we know that Erasmus is not a part of the deal. I have read on the BBC that the fisheries deal is over 5.5 years but i am not clear what percentage reduction the EU will suffer over that period. I get the impression it varies by species now.
I think we are clear that the LPF provisions will have independent international arbitration with no role for the CJEU.
We have no tariffs and no quotas and neither does the EU so we will presumably continue to run a substantial deficit.
The deal doesn't cover mutual recognition of services, clearly its biggest drawback, but it appears that we are back in the security/Schengen systems that was causing so much angst in the days before.
The sad truth is that at over 1200 pages with 800 pages of annexes I and 99.9% of the population are never going to read it. The reports I have seen so far have been little more than headlines. Has anyone come across a reasonably detailed and neutral evaluation of the deal yet?
There’s no point you either believe it’s a great deal, because you are told by those who influence you that it is, or it’s a crap deal for similar reasons. In fact minds were made up before the deal was reached. I doubt if even more than 19% of MPs will read it let alone the public. I have seen one good thing in it though which is a replacement for EHIC and imthinkisaw something on pet passports, neither bother me personally but do many.
I think that that is overly cynical and that there will be good things and bad for either side to point to although I accept that many, perhaps most, will have their minds made up in advance regardless of the detail.
My overall impression is that the EU has backed down on a number of substantive points and the UK has backed down a bit on fish to get this over the line. It seems to me that the government has got more of what it wanted than I would have expected but the devil will be in the tedious detail and it may be that some of those headline "wins" are not in fact as good as they appear.
The most important aspect is whether this deal will drain some of the poison out of the EU/UK relationship and allow us more constructive engagement going forward. I thought Gove was spot on about that this morning.
The biggest surprise to me is that the EU settled for a win on fish and in return the UK got a much bigger win on the LPF and arbitration. What's even more odd is that they also agreed to no cross sector retaliation if/when the UK reduces EU quotas after 5.5 years with tariffs limited to fishing so it gives the government licence to do what it wants on fish after 5.5 years and just live with some level of tariffs set by the arbitration process.
Lots of continuity remainers talking about the EU keeping the UK in its orbit, but so far there is not a lot of evidence for that. Their original proposal of ECJ jurisdiction and supremacy of EU law over the treaty would have meant that for sure but the EU have given that away as well.
I'm honestly quite surprised by how well Frost and his team have done. The whole team deserve a lot of praise for what they've achieved. Getting Boris to speak to Ursula at the end to sideline Barnier for the final three issues was surely the best bit of politicking of the whole process. On the LPF and governance Frost has completely run rings around Barnier and Barnier has sold the deal to the French by giving them a victory on fish whole Ursula and Riso were in the room agreeing to UK demand for arbitration, no cross sectoral retaliation and arbitrator led tariffs.
I am glad you share my impression Max. Much of what I have read seems almost too good to be true and contains much that we were being assured was "impossible" 48 hours ago. It is this that makes me want to read into the detail a bit.
I completely agree that bypassing Barnier with Boris dealing direct with von Leyen appears to have been a masterstroke. A deal was always much more in the EU's interest than they were ready to admit and she has clearly not allowed herself to be distracted from the main chance. Credit to her too for that.
Yes, I've been very impressed by UVdL, honestly if she was commission president when Dave was negotiating the now infamous deal I think we probably would have got a deal worthy of a remain vote. Between Junker and Tusk and their love of "punishment beatings" the EU alienated a lot of people like us who would have voted to stay had the EU recognised the issues we (and many other nations) had with the existing membership terms.
I wonder how much she is taking her cue from Merkel? After all she was her candidate and it may not have been a coincidence that Merkel ditched the whole "EU elections should determine the head of the Commission thing" that she was so insistent on only 4 years ago.
Was the real story of the last 6 months that Berlin finally came to the party and asserted itself? But it had to be done covertly and indirectly.
So we know that Erasmus is not a part of the deal. I have read on the BBC that the fisheries deal is over 5.5 years but i am not clear what percentage reduction the EU will suffer over that period. I get the impression it varies by species now.
I think we are clear that the LPF provisions will have independent international arbitration with no role for the CJEU.
We have no tariffs and no quotas and neither does the EU so we will presumably continue to run a substantial deficit.
The deal doesn't cover mutual recognition of services, clearly its biggest drawback, but it appears that we are back in the security/Schengen systems that was causing so much angst in the days before.
The sad truth is that at over 1200 pages with 800 pages of annexes I and 99.9% of the population are never going to read it. The reports I have seen so far have been little more than headlines. Has anyone come across a reasonably detailed and neutral evaluation of the deal yet?
There’s no point you either believe it’s a great deal, because you are told by those who influence you that it is, or it’s a crap deal for similar reasons. In fact minds were made up before the deal was reached. I doubt if even more than 19% of MPs will read it let alone the public. I have seen one good thing in it though which is a replacement for EHIC and imthinkisaw something on pet passports, neither bother me personally but do many.
I think that that is overly cynical and that there will be good things and bad for either side to point to although I accept that many, perhaps most, will have their minds made up in advance regardless of the detail.
My overall impression is that the EU has backed down on a number of substantive points and the UK has backed down a bit on fish to get this over the line. It seems to me that the government has got more of what it wanted than I would have expected but the devil will be in the tedious detail and it may be that some of those headline "wins" are not in fact as good as they appear.
The most important aspect is whether this deal will drain some of the poison out of the EU/UK relationship and allow us more constructive engagement going forward. I thought Gove was spot on about that this morning.
The biggest surprise to me is that the EU settled for a win on fish and in return the UK got a much bigger win on the LPF and arbitration. What's even more odd is that they also agreed to no cross sector retaliation if/when the UK reduces EU quotas after 5.5 years with tariffs limited to fishing so it gives the government licence to do what it wants on fish after 5.5 years and just live with some level of tariffs set by the arbitration process.
Lots of continuity remainers talking about the EU keeping the UK in its orbit, but so far there is not a lot of evidence for that. Their original proposal of ECJ jurisdiction and supremacy of EU law over the treaty would have meant that for sure but the EU have given that away as well.
I'm honestly quite surprised by how well Frost and his team have done. The whole team deserve a lot of praise for what they've achieved. Getting Boris to speak to Ursula at the end to sideline Barnier for the final three issues was surely the best bit of politicking of the whole process. On the LPF and governance Frost has completely run rings around Barnier and Barnier has sold the deal to the French by giving them a victory on fish whole Ursula and Riso were in the room agreeing to UK demand for arbitration, no cross sectoral retaliation and arbitrator led tariffs.
I am glad you share my impression Max. Much of what I have read seems almost too good to be true and contains much that we were being assured was "impossible" 48 hours ago. It is this that makes me want to read into the detail a bit.
I completely agree that bypassing Barnier with Boris dealing direct with von Leyen appears to have been a masterstroke. A deal was always much more in the EU's interest than they were ready to admit and she has clearly not allowed herself to be distracted from the main chance. Credit to her too for that.
Yes, I've been very impressed by UVdL, honestly if she was commission president when Dave was negotiating the now infamous deal I think we probably would have got a deal worthy of a remain vote. Between Junker and Tusk and their love of "punishment beatings" the EU alienated a lot of people like us who would have voted to stay had the EU recognised the issues we (and many other nations) had with the existing membership terms.
Whilst Junker, Tusk and the other keepers of the flame bear a lot of the blame I have no doubt that ultimately this was a very bad judgment call by Merkel. If she had genuinely believed Cameron when he said that there was a risk that we might leave things would have been very different. The problem may have been that I am not sure that Cameron and Osborne believed it themselves. Having dealt with the likes of Bill Cash and other nutters for many years they completely failed to appreciate just how widespread the disillusionment with the EU was and didn't take it seriously enough.
The key to the result was Boris (especially) and Gove coming out for leave and side-lining the likes of Farage, a serial loser who alienates far more than he attracts. They called it right and now they have their reward.
Mistake for Lab to bang on about Erasmus I suspect. Not relevant to most people's lives.
Are they banging on about it? I have reservations about leaving Erasmus, but the only people I see banging about it are Remainers who need a grievance to prove they were “right”*
*(They were and are right, but not especially about Erasmus).
Quite right - it is not Labour as far as I can see.
I hope Starmer finds something concrete to attack that will resonate more widely.
There are no political opportunities today, Most people don’t care. Christmas or Tier 4 are more pressing.
Those that do care do not have open minds, Tory leavers love it. Non Tory leavers are suspicious. Remainers range from those who feared a no deal to those who see this as the latest fail in a depressing saga.
Either way, zero point in engaging with this beyond planting the odd seed to be harvested later. The political impact comes next year.
So we know that Erasmus is not a part of the deal. I have read on the BBC that the fisheries deal is over 5.5 years but i am not clear what percentage reduction the EU will suffer over that period. I get the impression it varies by species now.
I think we are clear that the LPF provisions will have independent international arbitration with no role for the CJEU.
We have no tariffs and no quotas and neither does the EU so we will presumably continue to run a substantial deficit.
The deal doesn't cover mutual recognition of services, clearly its biggest drawback, but it appears that we are back in the security/Schengen systems that was causing so much angst in the days before.
The sad truth is that at over 1200 pages with 800 pages of annexes I and 99.9% of the population are never going to read it. The reports I have seen so far have been little more than headlines. Has anyone come across a reasonably detailed and neutral evaluation of the deal yet?
There’s no point you either believe it’s a great deal, because you are told by those who influence you that it is, or it’s a crap deal for similar reasons. In fact minds were made up before the deal was reached. I doubt if even more than 19% of MPs will read it let alone the public. I have seen one good thing in it though which is a replacement for EHIC and imthinkisaw something on pet passports, neither bother me personally but do many.
I think that that is overly cynical and that there will be good things and bad for either side to point to although I accept that many, perhaps most, will have their minds made up in advance regardless of the detail.
My overall impression is that the EU has backed down on a number of substantive points and the UK has backed down a bit on fish to get this over the line. It seems to me that the government has got more of what it wanted than I would have expected but the devil will be in the tedious detail and it may be that some of those headline "wins" are not in fact as good as they appear.
The most important aspect is whether this deal will drain some of the poison out of the EU/UK relationship and allow us more constructive engagement going forward. I thought Gove was spot on about that this morning.
The biggest surprise to me is that the EU settled for a win on fish and in return the UK got a much bigger win on the LPF and arbitration. What's even more odd is that they also agreed to no cross sector retaliation if/when the UK reduces EU quotas after 5.5 years with tariffs limited to fishing so it gives the government licence to do what it wants on fish after 5.5 years and just live with some level of tariffs set by the arbitration process.
Lots of continuity remainers talking about the EU keeping the UK in its orbit, but so far there is not a lot of evidence for that. Their original proposal of ECJ jurisdiction and supremacy of EU law over the treaty would have meant that for sure but the EU have given that away as well.
I'm honestly quite surprised by how well Frost and his team have done. The whole team deserve a lot of praise for what they've achieved. Getting Boris to speak to Ursula at the end to sideline Barnier for the final three issues was surely the best bit of politicking of the whole process. On the LPF and governance Frost has completely run rings around Barnier and Barnier has sold the deal to the French by giving them a victory on fish whole Ursula and Riso were in the room agreeing to UK demand for arbitration, no cross sectoral retaliation and arbitrator led tariffs.
I am glad you share my impression Max. Much of what I have read seems almost too good to be true and contains much that we were being assured was "impossible" 48 hours ago. It is this that makes me want to read into the detail a bit.
I completely agree that bypassing Barnier with Boris dealing direct with von Leyen appears to have been a masterstroke. A deal was always much more in the EU's interest than they were ready to admit and she has clearly not allowed herself to be distracted from the main chance. Credit to her too for that.
Yes, I've been very impressed by UVdL, honestly if she was commission president when Dave was negotiating the now infamous deal I think we probably would have got a deal worthy of a remain vote. Between Junker and Tusk and their love of "punishment beatings" the EU alienated a lot of people like us who would have voted to stay had the EU recognised the issues we (and many other nations) had with the existing membership terms.
I wonder how much she is taking her cue from Merkel? After all she was her candidate and it may not have been a coincidence that Merkel ditched the whole "EU elections should determine the head of the Commission thing" that she was so insistent on only 4 years ago.
Was the real story of the last 6 months that Berlin finally came to the party and asserted itself? But it had to be done covertly and indirectly.
The fabled German car manufacturers? Surely not.
More substantively, yes this seems like a deal hatched in Berlin and Amsterdam and has sidelined Brussels and Paris. As I said, getting Barnier out of the room for LPF and Governance was absolutely key to getting this deal over the line. Our stance on fish and going into ridiculous detail per species has obviously been a negotiation play to keep him and the French completely concentrated on fish whole Boris and Ursula both agreed on disarming the warheads to come to a good deal on the stuff that actually matters.
A Europe only ERASMUS scheme is being replaced with a newer, potentially better global Turing scheme.
And that's supposed to be a problem? 🤔
Is it the lack of a dedication to Europe that is the issue? Or the successor being open globally that is the problem?
Global is better than Europe only.
That is perhaps the weakest, meaningless defence ever mounted on PB. You can replace anything you like with something ‘newer’ and ‘potentially better’.
By your logic, you would demolish Stonehenge or Buckingham Palace, to make way for something newer and potentially better.
If the rumours are true, much of the royal family would be quite happy to see the latter happen...
Comments
The Chinese students on 30k a head, OTH.
We paid the EU to give a tiny fraction of our own money back to us. If we want to pay for those roads we can do so directly - and Scotland has its own government that is free to do so.
One of their worries was that the government would allow EU students to retain domestic status as part of staying in Erasmus (something that she said was floated by the EU). She's happy that the government didn't go down that road, I guess for their students it's not a big deal to lose Erasmus becuase the uni has so many links globally for student exchanges, I expect this to be the case for most of the top universities.
So there.
But they do. Their purpose is as an historical artifact that is preserved to show the past not the future. Is that the EU to you?
And the hospital where I worked for the last 12 or so years of my working life offered student pharmacist places to German students...... not to the detriment off British students of course. However the Germans could use the experience as part of their qualifying time; it didn't work the other way round; British pharmacy students have to have 'practical experience' time, but at an 'approved' British institution.
For now, despite the provocation, I hope it's not called a Brexit debate. Because that's what the Brexit warriors want. But the question of how we realistically relate to the rest of the continent isn't going to go away, the boring practicalities of how people live and how businesses operate across borders are still there. Some of those practicalities are about to come into very stark relief, others will take time to emerge.
So seriously. This is the perihelion. Geography, practicality and demographics are slowly, initially imperceptibly, going to pull in one direction only. I've mentioned the Baby Boomer Brexit Bulge before- born in the 50's, least enthusiastic about the EEC in '75, core Brexit demographic in '16. Without wishing them anything but a long happy life, they will go to the great polling station in the sky at some point.
And in 15 years time, I expect the EU to still be there, and being outside the room will chafe. So 20 years or so is about right.
After all, a democracy that can't change its mind isn't much of a democracy.
We have democracy to determine what our priorities are. We don't need Eurocrats to do so. If people want roads in the Outer Hebrides then vote for that.
Who ... err .. run some international exchange schemes already for the RoW.
Re 'political direction', I'm not talking about trade deals with various far flung places, or with the US, all of that stuff is relatively trivial, never ceases to amaze me the column inches it gets, I'm talking about real radical departure from the EU template of strongly regulated market capitalism with a largish tax & spend welfare state and socially liberal mores.
So, will we go sharp Right to a much smaller state, bonfire of red tape, free ports, low tax, privatized services, etc? Or sharp Left with eg something along the lines of Labour's 2019 manifesto? Given Brexit is essentially a project of the reactionary Tory Right, the first must be more likely than the second, but my bet is neither. I don't think there is public appetite for any of that monkey business here. I think I agree with what you posted the other day. This deal is a foundation to build on with the EU and from here we will converge rather than diverge further. We'll keep working our way back to EU, babe.
At least thats how it works up here on Teesside. But hey, Simon Clarke now has a substantial majority, so people are happy to vote to have money taken off them.
If you want a different priority then how about winning an election?
It is no coincidence that the current GOP and Tory party core vote has pivoted towards low-information voters.
Sorry if it sounds elitist but to believe that Trump actually won the election requires a person to be fairly ignorant/stupid.
Sadly it works very successfully although I expect it ultimately leads down a QAnon-shaped rabbit hole as we are witnessing win the US.
My overall impression is that the EU has backed down on a number of substantive points and the UK has backed down a bit on fish to get this over the line. It seems to me that the government has got more of what it wanted than I would have expected but the devil will be in the tedious detail and it may be that some of those headline "wins" are not in fact as good as they appear.
The most important aspect is whether this deal will drain some of the poison out of the EU/UK relationship and allow us more constructive engagement going forward. I thought Gove was spot on about that this morning.
Address the point. Our government will not be replacing the money invested into regions and sectors like farming. Your democratic vote bit would be fine were it not for people like HYUFD who wants to crush the Scots and anyone who isn't a White Anglican life-long Tory like he is.
What I am saying is that having voted to leave the EU people in regions will now witness the cash sucking out of their areas, scratch their heads and wonder what happened to the benefits they were promised. I don't think they will vote for Keith and his Labour Party. I don't think they will vote for the Tories who have massively led them down the garden path. I worry that they will look for more extreme solutions such as that offered by the Nigel is his Sink the Migrants Party.
But HYUFD is HYUFD not the Party.
If cash is sucked out of the region's then I am glad we have First Past the Post - the region's should elect MPs to stand up for their region.
Am glad to report that Mrs Walker seems to be through the worst of COVID, and, fingers crossed, so is Master (18 months) Walker.
My self and Miss (6 years old) Walker have tested negative. But we are all confined until 1 January earliest.
Obviously Christmas was rather grim, but friends delivered a socially distanced roast chicken and lobster(!).
Thank-you PBers for the many kind wishes.
On topic: Keir is obviously right to vote for the deal, even though it sticks in my Remainer craw. Voting against is tantamount to voting No Deal or a vote against Brexit itself.
Brexit is now dead - thank god - I hope we can get on with discussing with the post-pandemic, post-Brexit Britain of 2030 should look like.
As he puts it, the only way paupers in the regions can have any cash is to elect a Tory MP.
Whom each constituency elects matters more than a single Blue Corbynite from Epping Forest
Britain has not been used to living next door to a continental power since about 1800 (with a brief interlude in the 1940s).
I expect the EU will continue to be a whipping boy for the right-wing popular press, and that the U.K. governments will continue to fail to invest in the various forms of diplomatic capital necessary to build the most effective links with the EU.
The Tories have a real challenge - they need to cement themselves into Purple Wall seats and to deliver genuine long term benefits having left the EU. That will take an ocean of cash, they don't have an ocean of cash and even if they did they will give it to their mates rather than to regional proles.
Lots of continuity remainers talking about the EU keeping the UK in its orbit, but so far there is not a lot of evidence for that. Their original proposal of ECJ jurisdiction and supremacy of EU law over the treaty would have meant that for sure but the EU have given that away as well.
I'm honestly quite surprised by how well Frost and his team have done. The whole team deserve a lot of praise for what they've achieved. Getting Boris to speak to Ursula at the end to sideline Barnier for the final three issues was surely the best bit of politicking of the whole process. On the LPF and governance Frost has completely run rings around Barnier and Barnier has sold the deal to the French by giving them a victory on fish whole Ursula and Riso were in the room agreeing to UK demand for arbitration, no cross sectoral retaliation and arbitrator led tariffs.
https://twitter.com/johnredwood/status/1342721580368015361
Will put a bit of it back on the table now with a prediction that the Dems, contrary to what the odds are saying, will pull off the Georgia double.
It's also why I disagree somewhat with @kinabalu's point. I do not detect any electoral enthusiasm for either extreme in the UK. Nearly all of us accept a fairly high spending state that seeks to create equality of opportunity with limited success. Corbyn was perhaps an exception but the difference of degree between an SKS led Labour party and a Boris led Tory party does not point to anything radical in either direction.
What I would hope for, personally, is that our policies can be more directed to what we actually want rather than schemes designed to protect French farmers or German manufacturers. So our agricultural subsidies will be focused on maintaining and renewing our countryside rather than subsidising the mass production of food, we are willing to enter into other FTAs with other countries and groups even if that makes things a bit more competitive for things we currently import from Germany. These will be gains at the margins and I accept that there may be some detriments too.
The reason the wall turned purple isn't throwing cash at it or even Brexit (it's been trending that way for a decade).
It is that Tory stewardship of the economy has helped the purple wall.
If you look at the share of people able to get their own home in the purple wall that has gone up over the past decade. After it went down under Labour.
If people are able to afford their own home they are more likely to vote for the Tory government. It is really as simple as that.
That doesn't require throwing cash at every problem. Just the right ones.
A lie would be more accurate.
To add to all the other lies the PM has said about Brexit, his "deals" and pretty much everything else.
Grimsby was once home to the world’s largest fishing fleet. Doubt it can be so again, but I fully support a mission to make Grimsby great again (and Peterhead, Brixham, Newlyn and Shoreham).
However we do need decent jobs and that requires infrastructure spending to bring in the investment which does mean a wall of money is required to make up for 30 years of underinvestment due to the biased tests favouring investment in London and the South rather than the midlands and the North.
You were claiming that No Deal wasn't happening because the UK couldn't let it happen and so would sign EU terms and could have done so months ago.
I said if the UK stood firm then the EU wouldn't want No Deal because we hold the Aces.
On any impartial reading of the compromises the deal is far more what the UK was asking for months ago than what the EU was. So standing firm worked and you my friend were completely and utterly wrong.
There isn't a chance on earth this compromise could have been reached months ago.
I just don't see any incentive or reason for Trump republicans to get out and vote - so I do suspect the Democrats will win both seats.
I completely agree that bypassing Barnier with Boris dealing direct with von Leyen appears to have been a masterstroke. A deal was always much more in the EU's interest than they were ready to admit and she has clearly not allowed herself to be distracted from the main chance. Credit to her too for that.
I have reservations about leaving Erasmus, but the only people I see banging about it are Remainers who need a grievance to prove they were “right”*
*(They were and are right, but not especially about Erasmus).
West Wales and the Valleys (one of the poorest areas in Western Europe) received Objective One funding from 2000 onwards.
What happened to that money? Well, one clue is that West Wales & the Valleys was one of the most Brexity areas in the entire UK. That is already an indication that something went VERY seriously wrong.
At the end of 2009, after the spending of nearly a decade of Objective One funds, West Wales & the Valleys was significantly poorer. The per capita income of West Wales and the Valleys had gone DOWN, not up.
Of course, this did not happen in many ObjectiveOne areas, like Poland.
West Wales & the Valleys were just one of a handful of areas where this happened -- where the economy deteriorated despite the Objective One package. (The others were mainly in mafia-ridden Southern Italy, where levels of political corruption and cronyism are comparable to Wales)
Devolved Wales is a very strange place -- with its politics and economy invisible to the rest of the UK.
The Tories are not interested in Wales. The Labour Party are certainly not interested in any scrutiny of their management. The LibDems have been eradicated. And Plaid Cymru are impotent.
But, I don't think most people in Wales will notice the vanishing of the Objective One cash, because it was being almost wholly wasted.
I know quite a few households where only part of the house caught it. I think it down to the dispersion factor, and most people not infecting anyone.
I wish I shared Alex's confidence about Georgia. As many of you know, I'm on Jon Ossoff at 2:1 from before November but I'm not oozing a lot of confidence.
Sad and a bad consequence for individual freedom because of Brexit
There's a reason home ownership has gone up under the Tories and went down under Labour and that is what is swinging constituencies like mine.
For the past decade houses have been constructed around here left, right and centre and that has kept a lid on house prices and seen people moving in and buying and settling down with their families. Which encourages Tory votes.
We don't need white elephants. We don't need surging house prices. We need the basics done right it is as simple as that. That is what is seeing the wall turn purple - the economy working better for the people who live here.
We would never have gotten this deal with May and Robbins.
I hope Starmer finds something concrete to attack that will resonate more widely.
And that is not in any way to say that they "won". Maybe the deal genuinely gives both sides what they wanted/are content with. Maybe they were just very good at keeping their real red lines secret, leaving what they were ok to give way on for public consumption.
I think the biggest difference is they never took Cameron seriously. They never took May seriously.
Boris was the first PM since Thatcher's handbags to seriously stand up for Britain in Europe.
If in-between Thatcher and Boris we had any other PMs as good as them we may never have needed to leave.
What you might be disagreeing with is my view that in practice Brexit will prove with hindsight and in the long run to have been rather pointless. We can't know or indeed have much of a clue atm but I do think this will become the consensus assessment. Especially if we spend the next several years and election cycles broadly in lockstep and seeking greater co-operation rather than creating a whole new scene.
He needs to start there.
As @YBarddCwsc reminds us, there is no evidence that Labour actually “gets” what to do with economically backward regions. Indeed, the reverse.
The EU earlier this year said a Canada style deal was impossible. They just signed one.
What major strings attached are you seeing that we are all missing?
Because the 1970s was such a disaster with crap management and mental unions we seem to have decided that industry is too difficult. Let someone else do it whether that be coal or steel or fishing or car/aircraft/rail manufacturing. Sure these things still exist as a shadow of what they were, but they're foreign owned now as making a quick profit short term was judged better than long term stability as the French and Germans managed.
Its no wonder that people decided to blame the EU for the mess of our own creation when they visibly still have the kind of jobs we used to have and all we have is services. The problem is that such things are very expensive to bring back and take a long time.
Labour could win back these areas with a long term vision to actually rebuild and re-equip Britain. Invest into skills, into (subsidised like the French and Germans) production, into infrastructure. Give us the things we have lost that other people have. Tories can't do it because subsidy is communism. Labour could. But probably won't.
If anything it just made the EU more anxious about how to secure a level playing field.
Was the real story of the last 6 months that Berlin finally came to the party and asserted itself? But it had to be done covertly and indirectly.
The key to the result was Boris (especially) and Gove coming out for leave and side-lining the likes of Farage, a serial loser who alienates far more than he attracts. They called it right and now they have their reward.
Those that do care do not have open minds, Tory leavers love it. Non Tory leavers are suspicious. Remainers range from those who feared a no deal to those who see this as the latest fail in a depressing saga.
Either way, zero point in engaging with this beyond planting the odd seed to be harvested later. The political impact comes next year.
More substantively, yes this seems like a deal hatched in Berlin and Amsterdam and has sidelined Brussels and Paris. As I said, getting Barnier out of the room for LPF and Governance was absolutely key to getting this deal over the line. Our stance on fish and going into ridiculous detail per species has obviously been a negotiation play to keep him and the French completely concentrated on fish whole Boris and Ursula both agreed on disarming the warheads to come to a good deal on the stuff that actually matters.