Mr. Pete, Starmer should back the deal, unless there's something horrendous in it.
The alternatives are overtly supporting No Deal (as he's ruled out backing an extension to negotiations) or, on one of the crucial matters of our time, sitting it out because he wants to be able to criticise without troubling himself to express an opinion.
Johnson has a majority of 80, he does not require Labour to back his "pig in a poke" deal. This is a Tory project, Labour should steer well clear. Abstain!
Captain Hindsight to show no leadership on the greatest issue of the day again?
I do not believe Starmer will abstain on a vote of this importance
I predict very strong post-transition growth in 2021 📈 and 2022 📈
Probably two years with the fast growth recorded in decades.
My fantasies are better, Miranda Kerr and Heidi Klum feature in a threesome.
That said neither your fantasy nor mine will ever happen.
Mine's not a fantasy, it is economic reality. What odds will you give me that 2021 📈 and 2022 📈 will be better than historical averages?
Mine is at least based on reality. At least as far as I am aware Miranda Kerr and Heidi Klum at least exist. Brexit boom is based on no reality whatsoever.
Mr. Pete, Starmer should back the deal, unless there's something horrendous in it.
The alternatives are overtly supporting No Deal (as he's ruled out backing an extension to negotiations) or, on one of the crucial matters of our time, sitting it out because he wants to be able to criticise without troubling himself to express an opinion.
Johnson has a majority of 80, he does not require Labour to back his "pig in a poke" deal. This is a Tory project, Labour should steer well clear. Abstain!
Captain Hindsight to show no leadership on the greatest issue of the day again?
I do not believe Starmer will abstain on a vote of this importance
It's a vote for PC or the LDs in May from me, if Starmer whips "Aye".
I still can't find a good theoretical analysis of the effects of varying levels of accuracy in tests.
Seems strange that the modelling types haven't been all over this....
FPT
I'd suspect commercial sensitivity - either the data are not being made public or the teams aren't allowed to comment on it. Mr Hancock [edit] does not seem to have the reputation of being someone to disagree with the principle of someone making money out of the NHS.
No - I am talking about building a theoretical model. The effects of 99% efficacy, 90%, 85% etc
Your politics are blinding you.
So they are, thanks - but a very interesting thread.
I predict very strong post-transition growth in 2021 📈 and 2022 📈
Probably two years with the fast growth recorded in decades.
I would expect there'll be quite a lot of post-CV19 bounce. But I'd be surprised if there was any meaningful near term additional economic growth driven by Brexit.
Spoilsport.
I think there will be some near term additional economic growth driven by an end to all the uncertainty that has plagued things for the past five years. But yes of course post CV-19 will be the main reason there'll be a post-transition boom.
Mr. Pete, Starmer should back the deal, unless there's something horrendous in it.
The alternatives are overtly supporting No Deal (as he's ruled out backing an extension to negotiations) or, on one of the crucial matters of our time, sitting it out because he wants to be able to criticise without troubling himself to express an opinion.
Johnson has a majority of 80, he does not require Labour to back his "pig in a poke" deal. This is a Tory project, Labour should steer well clear. Abstain!
Captain Hindsight to show no leadership on the greatest issue of the day again?
I do not believe Starmer will abstain on a vote of this importance
It's a vote for PC or the LDs in May from me, if Starmer whips "Aye".
Mr. Pete, Starmer should back the deal, unless there's something horrendous in it.
The alternatives are overtly supporting No Deal (as he's ruled out backing an extension to negotiations) or, on one of the crucial matters of our time, sitting it out because he wants to be able to criticise without troubling himself to express an opinion.
Johnson has a majority of 80, he does not require Labour to back his "pig in a poke" deal. This is a Tory project, Labour should steer well clear. Abstain!
Captain Hindsight to show no leadership on the greatest issue of the day again?
I do not believe Starmer will abstain on a vote of this importance
It's a vote for PC or the LDs in May from me, if Starmer whips "Aye".
And just think about the effect on SLAB in Scotland (said to be vital to him) if he does. It may only affect Ian Murray directly and immediately, but Holyrood elections are coming up.
I heard last night on a news programme in the States that anecdotal reports from SA indicate not only does it spread like a bitch but also more likely to make you require hospitalisation ... or worse
I hope the deal gets signed off Xmas eve and the journalists have to read through it Xmas morning. Payback for how awful most of them have been in 2020.
I suspect Boris will want Labour to abstain, if Keir is smart he'll show some conviction and vote for the deal, otherwise the ghost of his Brexit flipflopping will come back to haunt him.
Mr. Pete, Labour aspires to govern. And to govern is to choose.
Not shrug and say "I dunno" when faced with a vote on a very serious matter.
They should choose to abstain on the basis that Johnson's deal (assuming it is as dire as predicted) is better than no deal, but they should want no part in rubber stamping it.
Mr. Observer, lucky for Starmer he's Leader of the Opposition and has plenty of staff to help him read it more rapidly than one bloke by himself could.
Sitting out on a decision like that is a very weak look, as it was when Clegg had a three line whip abstaining on a Lisbon referendum.
It's not just a case of reading it, though. The issue is giving it proper scrutiny. You cannot do that in a day. The vote will not be on the deal. It will be on whether any deal is better than no deal. FWIW, my guess is that Starmer will whip in favour on that basis, but that a large number of Labour MPs will either abstain or vote against and will face few if any sanctions. There may be some front bench resignations. Almost no-one will notice.
Hancock full of praise for South African work on genomics - impressive for an emerging economy to have done more than Germany, France, Italy...in fact only 4 EU members (Denmark, Spain, Netherlands & Ireland) have done more.....
Mr. Pete, Starmer should back the deal, unless there's something horrendous in it.
The alternatives are overtly supporting No Deal (as he's ruled out backing an extension to negotiations) or, on one of the crucial matters of our time, sitting it out because he wants to be able to criticise without troubling himself to express an opinion.
Johnson has a majority of 80, he does not require Labour to back his "pig in a poke" deal. This is a Tory project, Labour should steer well clear. Abstain!
Captain Hindsight to show no leadership on the greatest issue of the day again?
Why are Conservative Brexiteers so keen for Labour to support their deal? I suspect you are setting an enormous elephant trap for the hapless Starmer. When your trade deal fails miserably you can call it the Starmer Deal, he after all supported it.
Hancock full of praise for South African work on genomics - impressive for an emerging economy to have done more than Germany, France, Italy...in fact only 4 EU members (Denmark, Spain, Netherlands & Ireland) have done more.....
Does anybody think there won't be a strain of covid that is 'vaccine resistant?'
The vaccines all target the spike protein. Unless there is a mutation that gets rid of that (which seems pretty unlikely) then it's unlikely they will become completely ineffective.
HOWEVER, we'll know if there's a real problem, real quick.
A lot of people in the UK have had CV19 already. If those that already had it start getting this new variant (and my guess is we'd already be seeing that if it was happening) then you need to worry.
Mr. Pete, Starmer should back the deal, unless there's something horrendous in it.
The alternatives are overtly supporting No Deal (as he's ruled out backing an extension to negotiations) or, on one of the crucial matters of our time, sitting it out because he wants to be able to criticise without troubling himself to express an opinion.
Johnson has a majority of 80, he does not require Labour to back his "pig in a poke" deal. This is a Tory project, Labour should steer well clear. Abstain!
Captain Hindsight to show no leadership on the greatest issue of the day again?
Why are Conservative Brexiteers so keen for Labour to support their deal? I suspect you are setting an enormous elephant trap for the hapless Starmer. When your trade deal fails miserably you can call it the Starmer Deal, he after all supported it.
I honestly couldn't care less whether Labour support the deal or not. It is moot, so long as they don't oppose it - only political geeks (who won't be swung by this) will pay attention. Nobody cares that IDS backed Iraq, it was and always will be Blair's war.
Brexit Deal will be owned by Boris not Starmer.
But from a politics geek PoV if Starmer abstains on the biggest issue of the day then that is hilarious.
Mr. Pete, why are you so keen for him to evade making a decision on a crucial matter?
MPs voting in Parliament is quite an important part of a democracy. If a man aspires to be PM then he has to be able to form an opinion to back or oppose a vote on a vital matter.
Yep I'm on this already. Laid him at an average 7.6 for a decent sum. My only slight worry was that I had not seen a photo of him. But ok I have now. There he is.
Mr. Pete, Starmer should back the deal, unless there's something horrendous in it.
The alternatives are overtly supporting No Deal (as he's ruled out backing an extension to negotiations) or, on one of the crucial matters of our time, sitting it out because he wants to be able to criticise without troubling himself to express an opinion.
Johnson has a majority of 80, he does not require Labour to back his "pig in a poke" deal. This is a Tory project, Labour should steer well clear. Abstain!
Captain Hindsight to show no leadership on the greatest issue of the day again?
Why are Conservative Brexiteers so keen for Labour to support their deal? I suspect you are setting an enormous elephant trap for the hapless Starmer. When your trade deal fails miserably you can call it the Starmer Deal, he after all supported it.
Actually I think it is Starmer's interest to vote for a deal as abstaining will just confirm he is unable to make decisions
I also think he would receive terrible press but as a conservative I am content for him to abstain
The PM timing his victory/surrender (take your pick or somewhere in between) perfectly for a Christmas present, and to give his beloved optimism for the new year. Well, perfectly for his short term popularity, shit for business who have no time to prepare and have faced ridiculous uncertainty.
Mr. Pete, Starmer should back the deal, unless there's something horrendous in it.
The alternatives are overtly supporting No Deal (as he's ruled out backing an extension to negotiations) or, on one of the crucial matters of our time, sitting it out because he wants to be able to criticise without troubling himself to express an opinion.
Johnson has a majority of 80, he does not require Labour to back his "pig in a poke" deal. This is a Tory project, Labour should steer well clear. Abstain!
Captain Hindsight to show no leadership on the greatest issue of the day again?
Why are Conservative Brexiteers so keen for Labour to support their deal? I suspect you are setting an enormous elephant trap for the hapless Starmer. When your trade deal fails miserably you can call it the Starmer Deal, he after all supported it.
It's not an elephant trap. One of the biggest criticisms of Starmer is that he is indecisive and a fence sitter. He would go a long way to rid himself of that label by voting on the deal (either way). Abstaining is the cowardly option and can be used against him to suggest he would be fine with 'no deal' after a year of Labour implying they were desperate to avoid it.
Mr. Pete, Starmer should back the deal, unless there's something horrendous in it.
The alternatives are overtly supporting No Deal (as he's ruled out backing an extension to negotiations) or, on one of the crucial matters of our time, sitting it out because he wants to be able to criticise without troubling himself to express an opinion.
Johnson has a majority of 80, he does not require Labour to back his "pig in a poke" deal. This is a Tory project, Labour should steer well clear. Abstain!
Captain Hindsight to show no leadership on the greatest issue of the day again?
Why are Conservative Brexiteers so keen for Labour to support their deal? I suspect you are setting an enormous elephant trap for the hapless Starmer. When your trade deal fails miserably you can call it the Starmer Deal, he after all supported it.
It's Johnson's deal, just as Iraq was Blair's war. Whether Labour backs it is neither here nor there, really. The bottom line is that any deal is better than no deal. And labour is not going to be arguing about the deal once it is done, it is going to be holding Johnson to account for the promises that he has made about delivering prosperity, levelling up and healing divisions, all while lowering taxes and increasing public spending.
Mr. Pete, Starmer should back the deal, unless there's something horrendous in it.
The alternatives are overtly supporting No Deal (as he's ruled out backing an extension to negotiations) or, on one of the crucial matters of our time, sitting it out because he wants to be able to criticise without troubling himself to express an opinion.
Johnson has a majority of 80, he does not require Labour to back his "pig in a poke" deal. This is a Tory project, Labour should steer well clear. Abstain!
Captain Hindsight to show no leadership on the greatest issue of the day again?
Why are Conservative Brexiteers so keen for Labour to support their deal? I suspect you are setting an enormous elephant trap for the hapless Starmer. When your trade deal fails miserably you can call it the Starmer Deal, he after all supported it.
Actually I think it is Starmer's interest to vote for a deal as abstaining will just confirm he is unable to make decisions
I also think he would receive terrible press but as a conservative I am content for him to abstain
I don't think Starmer has any influence say or significance whether he abstains or votes in favour.
Its like asking whether a fly on a windscreen should have a say on which direction the driver takes the vehicle.
Nobody is going to care in 3 years what Starmer does. This is Boris's deal, not his.
Yep I'm on this already. Laid him at an average 7.6 for a decent sum. My only slight worry was that I had not seen a photo of him. But ok I have now. There he is.
Still happy with my lay.
Looks as if your confidence on a deal is about to come about
Hancock sounded very very worried about just how serious super mutant SA covid is.
Ban travel with South Africa. Ban travel with anywhere that is allowing travel with South Africa.
Ban travel.....end of.....
I have friends who have driven to be home for Xmas in the SE. I fear for their safety but I simply do not understand why people with any discretion would choose to travel anywhere right now.
Hancock full of praise for South African work on genomics - impressive for an emerging economy to have done more than Germany, France, Italy...in fact only 4 EU members (Denmark, Spain, Netherlands & Ireland) have done more.....
To be fair, we did get a vaccine out of Germany.
When it comes to "which virus variant" they've got they're largely flying blind - we're sampling 90 times as many tests as Germany is. They could easily have both the "UK" (sic) and "South African" (sic) variants running amok and it will take them a while to find out. It's no surprise that the other country in Europe to identify they've got it is Denmark - because they're testing.....
The PM timing his victory/surrender (take your pick or somewhere in between) perfectly for a Christmas present, and to give his beloved optimism for the new year. Well, perfectly for his short term popularity, shit for business who have no time to prepare and have faced ridiculous uncertainty.
I would be very surprised if part of the deal did not include a six month implementation period
I predict very strong post-transition growth in 2021 📈 and 2022 📈
Probably two years with the fast growth recorded in decades.
I would expect there'll be quite a lot of post-CV19 bounce. But I'd be surprised if there was any meaningful near term additional economic growth driven by Brexit.
In the real world of course, the UK economy is already 8/9% smaller than per pandemic. and the new measures being introduced now probably mean a further recession.
Our deficit is USD240bn over 8 months, reaching USD400bn by next April. Probably more if shagger Ferguson gets his way and there is another full lockdown in January.
That full lockdown will be the last straw for a further swathe of businesses. Paul Johnson of the IFS said the other day a great deal of further damage will be done in the following years when we will still be running very large deficits, because it will be impossible to get back to normal quickly.
Real cost of COVID 19? its going to be close to a trillion pounds all told. That's always supposing Ferguson & Co don;t dream up another threat next year, which right now looks pretty likely, given their track record.
POst covid 19? there is no post covid 19. There is no prosper mightily and there is no getting out of this.
The only things that are getting us out of this is running out of money, or people deciding the risks are worth getting their lives back.
Mr. Pete, why are you so keen for him to evade making a decision on a crucial matter?
MPs voting in Parliament is quite an important part of a democracy. If a man aspires to be PM then he has to be able to form an opinion to back or oppose a vote on a vital matter.
I can't speak for Starmer, he may well do something ridiculous like support the Johnson Deal. I can however speak for myself.
I accept that trading on WTO terms is worse, even than a bad deal. However, I would make the CONSCIOUS decision that I cannot allow the deal to fail to satisfy the headbanging no deal ERGers by voting against it. Nonetheless it is so bad (remember, I am a swivel-eyed former Remainer) that I couldn't possibly endorse it, and run the risk of Johnson saying to me in six months time, "well OK, it was a bad deal, but you supported it, so it is your fault".
Anyway, Johnson has an 80 seat majority, coutesy of Jeremy Corbyn, so he doesnt need my vote!
Those charts don't really show what he claims. The positivity rates were lower than or same as early Nov for non-mutant one and essentially flat to small increase. The real increase is dominated by the new mutant variant.
e.g. SE going fron 0.4 to 0.5 of non-mutant covid is basically rounding error.
Areas badly hit in Wales started to see 20% positivity...thats when you know shit fan hit.
Mr. Pete, Starmer should back the deal, unless there's something horrendous in it.
The alternatives are overtly supporting No Deal (as he's ruled out backing an extension to negotiations) or, on one of the crucial matters of our time, sitting it out because he wants to be able to criticise without troubling himself to express an opinion.
Johnson has a majority of 80, he does not require Labour to back his "pig in a poke" deal. This is a Tory project, Labour should steer well clear. Abstain!
Captain Hindsight to show no leadership on the greatest issue of the day again?
Why are Conservative Brexiteers so keen for Labour to support their deal? I suspect you are setting an enormous elephant trap for the hapless Starmer. When your trade deal fails miserably you can call it the Starmer Deal, he after all supported it.
Actually I think it is Starmer's interest to vote for a deal as abstaining will just confirm he is unable to make decisions
I also think he would receive terrible press but as a conservative I am content for him to abstain
I don't think Starmer has any influence say or significance whether he abstains or votes in favour.
Its like asking whether a fly on a windscreen should have a say on which direction the driver takes the vehicle.
Nobody is going to care in 3 years what Starmer does. This is Boris's deal, not his.
You are 100% correct, Phil - and that's not something I say everyday!
"See you later, Keir! Boris Johnson leaves Labour Party for dust in new YouGov poll"
Actually it's the old YouGov poll, which mysteriously became newsworthy in the eyes of a Daily Express sub-editor only on the day of the following week's poll which puts Labour 4% ahead.
"See you later, Keir! Boris Johnson leaves Labour Party for dust in new YouGov poll"
Actually it's the old YouGov poll, which mysteriously became newsworthy in the eyes of a Daily Express sub-editor only on the day of the following week's poll which puts Labour 4% ahead.
I've noticed the Mail only deem a poll newsworthy when there is a Lab lead. So every 3 or 4 weeks they report one. Which must be confusing for their readers who aren't polling wonks who must be wondering why they were behind the Tories in the first place when it wasn't reported.
Mr. Pete, Starmer should back the deal, unless there's something horrendous in it.
The alternatives are overtly supporting No Deal (as he's ruled out backing an extension to negotiations) or, on one of the crucial matters of our time, sitting it out because he wants to be able to criticise without troubling himself to express an opinion.
Johnson has a majority of 80, he does not require Labour to back his "pig in a poke" deal. This is a Tory project, Labour should steer well clear. Abstain!
Captain Hindsight to show no leadership on the greatest issue of the day again?
Why are Conservative Brexiteers so keen for Labour to support their deal? I suspect you are setting an enormous elephant trap for the hapless Starmer. When your trade deal fails miserably you can call it the Starmer Deal, he after all supported it.
It's Johnson's deal, just as Iraq was Blair's war. Whether Labour backs it is neither here nor there, really. The bottom line is that any deal is better than no deal. And labour is not going to be arguing about the deal once it is done, it is going to be holding Johnson to account for the promises that he has made about delivering prosperity, levelling up and healing divisions, all while lowering taxes and increasing public spending.
I dispute that anstaining is a mark of Starmer's weakness, as claimed by every Johnson -ramping Tory on PB.
Mr. Observer, you're right that the clown will get the praise or blame for the deal, if one is agreed.
However, those who are contemplating whether Starmer is worth backing should he be the candidate for PM opposing the buffoon might consider his decision here a factor of significant weight.
Mr. Pete, Starmer should back the deal, unless there's something horrendous in it.
The alternatives are overtly supporting No Deal (as he's ruled out backing an extension to negotiations) or, on one of the crucial matters of our time, sitting it out because he wants to be able to criticise without troubling himself to express an opinion.
Johnson has a majority of 80, he does not require Labour to back his "pig in a poke" deal. This is a Tory project, Labour should steer well clear. Abstain!
Captain Hindsight to show no leadership on the greatest issue of the day again?
Why are Conservative Brexiteers so keen for Labour to support their deal? I suspect you are setting an enormous elephant trap for the hapless Starmer. When your trade deal fails miserably you can call it the Starmer Deal, he after all supported it.
It's Johnson's deal, just as Iraq was Blair's war. Whether Labour backs it is neither here nor there, really. The bottom line is that any deal is better than no deal. And labour is not going to be arguing about the deal once it is done, it is going to be holding Johnson to account for the promises that he has made about delivering prosperity, levelling up and healing divisions, all while lowering taxes and increasing public spending.
I dispute that anstaining is a mark of Starmer's weakness, as claimed by every Johnson -ramping Tory on PB.
Its a sign of strength to bravely cower from the sidelines? 🤣
Mr. Pete, why are you so keen for him to evade making a decision on a crucial matter?
MPs voting in Parliament is quite an important part of a democracy. If a man aspires to be PM then he has to be able to form an opinion to back or oppose a vote on a vital matter.
I can't speak for Starmer, he may well do something ridiculous like support the Johnson Deal. I can however speak for myself.
I accept that trading on WTO terms is worse, even than a bad deal. However, I would make the CONSCIOUS decision that I cannot allow the deal to fail to satisfy the headbanging no deal ERGers by voting against it. Nonetheless it is so bad (remember, I am a swivel-eyed former Remainer) that I couldn't possibly endorse it, and run the risk of Johnson saying to me in six months time, "well OK, it was a bad deal, but you supported it, so it is your fault".
Anyway, Johnson has an 80 seat majority, coutesy of Jeremy Corbyn, so he doesnt need my vote!
Yep I'm on this already. Laid him at an average 7.6 for a decent sum. My only slight worry was that I had not seen a photo of him. But ok I have now. There he is.
Still happy with my lay.
Looks as if your confidence on a deal is about to come about
The PM timing his victory/surrender (take your pick or somewhere in between) perfectly for a Christmas present, and to give his beloved optimism for the new year. Well, perfectly for his short term popularity, shit for business who have no time to prepare and have faced ridiculous uncertainty.
I would be very surprised if part of the deal did not include a six month implementation period
Businesses have been facing uncertainty for years now, I have spent some of the last week trying to understand what the VAT implications could be in ten days time, it is both a complete waste of my time and a prudent necessity. This from the party who used to boast about cutting red tape, not wrapping us up in it.
Mr. Pete, Starmer should back the deal, unless there's something horrendous in it.
The alternatives are overtly supporting No Deal (as he's ruled out backing an extension to negotiations) or, on one of the crucial matters of our time, sitting it out because he wants to be able to criticise without troubling himself to express an opinion.
Johnson has a majority of 80, he does not require Labour to back his "pig in a poke" deal. This is a Tory project, Labour should steer well clear. Abstain!
Captain Hindsight to show no leadership on the greatest issue of the day again?
Why are Conservative Brexiteers so keen for Labour to support their deal? I suspect you are setting an enormous elephant trap for the hapless Starmer. When your trade deal fails miserably you can call it the Starmer Deal, he after all supported it.
It's Johnson's deal, just as Iraq was Blair's war. Whether Labour backs it is neither here nor there, really. The bottom line is that any deal is better than no deal. And labour is not going to be arguing about the deal once it is done, it is going to be holding Johnson to account for the promises that he has made about delivering prosperity, levelling up and healing divisions, all while lowering taxes and increasing public spending.
I dispute that anstaining is a mark of Starmer's weakness, as claimed by every Johnson -ramping Tory on PB.
Its a sign of strength to bravely cower from the sidelines? 🤣
Hancock full of praise for South African work on genomics - impressive for an emerging economy to have done more than Germany, France, Italy...in fact only 4 EU members (Denmark, Spain, Netherlands & Ireland) have done more.....
To be fair, we did get a vaccine out of Germany.
When it comes to "which virus variant" they've got they're largely flying blind - we're sampling 90 times as many tests as Germany is. They could easily have both the "UK" (sic) and "South African" (sic) variants running amok and it will take them a while to find out. It's no surprise that the other country in Europe to identify they've got it is Denmark - because they're testing.....
The biochemical - as opposed to chemical - industry in Germany is interesting.
A serious problem is the Green fixation on BioTech = Evul. Which has ended up with laughable restrictions on school level experiments.
The PM timing his victory/surrender (take your pick or somewhere in between) perfectly for a Christmas present, and to give his beloved optimism for the new year. Well, perfectly for his short term popularity, shit for business who have no time to prepare and have faced ridiculous uncertainty.
I would be very surprised if part of the deal did not include a six month implementation period
It would make perfect sense to have an implementation period.
Mr. Pete, Starmer should back the deal, unless there's something horrendous in it.
The alternatives are overtly supporting No Deal (as he's ruled out backing an extension to negotiations) or, on one of the crucial matters of our time, sitting it out because he wants to be able to criticise without troubling himself to express an opinion.
Johnson has a majority of 80, he does not require Labour to back his "pig in a poke" deal. This is a Tory project, Labour should steer well clear. Abstain!
Captain Hindsight to show no leadership on the greatest issue of the day again?
Why are Conservative Brexiteers so keen for Labour to support their deal? I suspect you are setting an enormous elephant trap for the hapless Starmer. When your trade deal fails miserably you can call it the Starmer Deal, he after all supported it.
It's Johnson's deal, just as Iraq was Blair's war. Whether Labour backs it is neither here nor there, really. The bottom line is that any deal is better than no deal. And labour is not going to be arguing about the deal once it is done, it is going to be holding Johnson to account for the promises that he has made about delivering prosperity, levelling up and healing divisions, all while lowering taxes and increasing public spending.
I dispute that anstaining is a mark of Starmer's weakness, as claimed by every Johnson -ramping Tory on PB.
I am not in thrall to Boris, indeed I would replace him with Rishi or Hunt today, but I posed the question as I do think he will make a mistake if he does not vote for the deal
If these new variants are due to treatment of immunocompromised people with the antibody serum (as has been speculated), should we ban serum treatment?
It seems the most likely way that we are going to breed strains for which the vaccine won't work.
Those charts don't really show what he claims. The positivity rates were lower than or same as early Nov for non-mutant one and essentially flat to small increase. The real increase is dominated by the new mutant variant.
e.g. SE going fron 0.4 to 0.5 of non-mutant covid is basically rounding error.
Areas badly hit in Wales started to see 20% positivity...thats when you know shit fan hit.
It's a damn shame that the tiering was apparently working, or close enough so that a few tweaks would do it, before supercovid came along.
Mr. Pete, Starmer should back the deal, unless there's something horrendous in it.
The alternatives are overtly supporting No Deal (as he's ruled out backing an extension to negotiations) or, on one of the crucial matters of our time, sitting it out because he wants to be able to criticise without troubling himself to express an opinion.
Johnson has a majority of 80, he does not require Labour to back his "pig in a poke" deal. This is a Tory project, Labour should steer well clear. Abstain!
Captain Hindsight to show no leadership on the greatest issue of the day again?
Why are Conservative Brexiteers so keen for Labour to support their deal? I suspect you are setting an enormous elephant trap for the hapless Starmer. When your trade deal fails miserably you can call it the Starmer Deal, he after all supported it.
It's Johnson's deal, just as Iraq was Blair's war. Whether Labour backs it is neither here nor there, really. The bottom line is that any deal is better than no deal. And labour is not going to be arguing about the deal once it is done, it is going to be holding Johnson to account for the promises that he has made about delivering prosperity, levelling up and healing divisions, all while lowering taxes and increasing public spending.
I dispute that anstaining is a mark of Starmer's weakness, as claimed by every Johnson -ramping Tory on PB.
I am not in thrall to Boris, indeed I would replace him with Rishi or Hunt today, but I posed the question as I do think he will make a mistake if he does not vote for the deal
Either way I am content
If Boris can achieve a deal, get us through CV19 vaccinations prior to most of the western world and then we start growing again then could you see yourself voting for his party in 2024 if he's still there?
Mr. Pete, if you think I'm a 'Johnson-ramping Tory' I'd gently suggest that doesn't necessarily line up with what I've been saying about the clown for years...
Starmer abstaining = Starmer accepting no deal as an option. Incredibly easy for his opponenets and the media to frame this argument.
“No deal” will be an irrelevance as soon as the deal passes so I’m not sure what your point is.
That he's spent so long saying it's a bad idea only to essentially try and let it in through the backdoor. Voting for the deal might annoy Adonis and a few headbangers but it's not going to win round many of the 52% he needs.
Mr. Pete, Starmer should back the deal, unless there's something horrendous in it.
The alternatives are overtly supporting No Deal (as he's ruled out backing an extension to negotiations) or, on one of the crucial matters of our time, sitting it out because he wants to be able to criticise without troubling himself to express an opinion.
Johnson has a majority of 80, he does not require Labour to back his "pig in a poke" deal. This is a Tory project, Labour should steer well clear. Abstain!
Captain Hindsight to show no leadership on the greatest issue of the day again?
Why are Conservative Brexiteers so keen for Labour to support their deal? I suspect you are setting an enormous elephant trap for the hapless Starmer. When your trade deal fails miserably you can call it the Starmer Deal, he after all supported it.
It's Johnson's deal, just as Iraq was Blair's war. Whether Labour backs it is neither here nor there, really. The bottom line is that any deal is better than no deal. And labour is not going to be arguing about the deal once it is done, it is going to be holding Johnson to account for the promises that he has made about delivering prosperity, levelling up and healing divisions, all while lowering taxes and increasing public spending.
I dispute that anstaining is a mark of Starmer's weakness, as claimed by every Johnson -ramping Tory on PB.
I am not in thrall to Boris, indeed I would replace him with Rishi or Hunt today, but I posed the question as I do think he will make a mistake if he does not vote for the deal
Either way I am content
If Boris can achieve a deal, get us through CV19 vaccinations prior to most of the western world and then we start growing again then could you see yourself voting for his party in 2024 if he's still there?
2024 is open for my vote but I have only voted Labour twice in my 76 years
Comments
Lay (Bet Against)
Backer's odds Backer's stake
Payout
Liability
Brian Rose
6.31
£186.00
£987.24
Not shrug and say "I dunno" when faced with a vote on a very serious matter.
There's no way this new strain could impact Northerners, it only goes for soft arse Southerners.
Why do you think it went for South Africa and not North Africa?
I think there will be some near term additional economic growth driven by an end to all the uncertainty that has plagued things for the past five years. But yes of course post CV-19 will be the main reason there'll be a post-transition boom.
I suspect Boris will want Labour to abstain, if Keir is smart he'll show some conviction and vote for the deal, otherwise the ghost of his Brexit flipflopping will come back to haunt him.
I'm glad to see some things never change.
Lorry drivers have incredibly low rates of CV19 (unsurprisingly given they spent most of their day on their own).
Does anybody think there won't be a strain of covid that is 'vaccine resistant?'
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/22/south-africa-struggles-contain-second-covid-wave-new-strain
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brian_Rose
https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-uk-confirms-two-cases-of-another-new-variant-linked-to-south-africa-12171410
HOWEVER, we'll know if there's a real problem, real quick.
A lot of people in the UK have had CV19 already. If those that already had it start getting this new variant (and my guess is we'd already be seeing that if it was happening) then you need to worry.
Brexit Deal will be owned by Boris not Starmer.
But from a politics geek PoV if Starmer abstains on the biggest issue of the day then that is hilarious.
https://twitter.com/thelittlest/status/968542313130622977
MPs voting in Parliament is quite an important part of a democracy. If a man aspires to be PM then he has to be able to form an opinion to back or oppose a vote on a vital matter.
Yep I'm on this already. Laid him at an average 7.6 for a decent sum. My only slight worry was that I had not seen a photo of him. But ok I have now. There he is.
Still happy with my lay.
I also think he would receive terrible press but as a conservative I am content for him to abstain
https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/1341769596056047616
Its like asking whether a fly on a windscreen should have a say on which direction the driver takes the vehicle.
Nobody is going to care in 3 years what Starmer does. This is Boris's deal, not his.
If not let the poor MPs decide for themselves.
Our deficit is USD240bn over 8 months, reaching USD400bn by next April. Probably more if shagger Ferguson gets his way and there is another full lockdown in January.
That full lockdown will be the last straw for a further swathe of businesses. Paul Johnson of the IFS said the other day a great deal of further damage will be done in the following years when we will still be running very large deficits, because it will be impossible to get back to normal quickly.
Real cost of COVID 19? its going to be close to a trillion pounds all told. That's always supposing Ferguson & Co don;t dream up another threat next year, which right now looks pretty likely, given their track record.
POst covid 19? there is no post covid 19. There is no prosper mightily and there is no getting out of this.
The only things that are getting us out of this is running out of money, or people deciding the risks are worth getting their lives back.
I accept that trading on WTO terms is worse, even than a bad deal. However, I would make the CONSCIOUS decision that I cannot allow the deal to fail to satisfy the headbanging no deal ERGers by voting against it. Nonetheless it is so bad (remember, I am a swivel-eyed former Remainer) that I couldn't possibly endorse it, and run the risk of Johnson saying to me in six months time, "well OK, it was a bad deal, but you supported it, so it is your fault".
Anyway, Johnson has an 80 seat majority, coutesy of Jeremy Corbyn, so he doesnt need my vote!
e.g. SE going fron 0.4 to 0.5 of non-mutant covid is basically rounding error.
Areas badly hit in Wales started to see 20% positivity...thats when you know shit fan hit.
Merry Christmas to you ;-)
Actually it's the old YouGov poll, which mysteriously became newsworthy in the eyes of a Daily Express sub-editor only on the day of the following week's poll which puts Labour 4% ahead.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/1375850/Labour-party-news-keir-starmer-Boris-Johnson-yougov-poll-voting-brexit-latest-ont
Or the super duper variant isn;t that super duper.
Established facts?
*looks at Christmas eggnog, prematurely*
However, those who are contemplating whether Starmer is worth backing should he be the candidate for PM opposing the buffoon might consider his decision here a factor of significant weight.
(26 seconds)
I rule! -
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1341770636658663432?s=20
does this sound like its going to end any time soon to you? does it even remotely sound like the beginning of the end?
A serious problem is the Green fixation on BioTech = Evul. Which has ended up with laughable restrictions on school level experiments.
Either way I am content
It seems the most likely way that we are going to breed strains for which the vaccine won't work.
Bad for the individuals involved, but...
This kind of unwinding of restrictions could have been left until the spring.
https://twitter.com/nicktolhurst/status/1341695074619568128?s=20