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Laying Brian Rose in the London Mayoral race – the best bet out there at the moment – politicalbetti
Laying Brian Rose in the London Mayoral race – the best bet out there at the moment – politicalbetting.com
Thanks to Quincel (@PipsFunFacts) for this tip which it is hard to disagree with – betting against Brian Rose – the unexpected second favourite in the London mayoral race. He’s currently rated as a an 11/12% chance on the betting exchanges – Smarkets chart shown above.
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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1341755742827794434
Lets take your best case scenario - Norway / Sweden. Not that we can be like them because we aren't EEA members so it won't be as effortless. Their busiest crossing does 1,300 trucks a day total. Vs 18-20k per day total at Dover - Calais. Because they have automated it they manage to whip vehicles through in 20 minutes.
We won't be as automated as them as EEA membership makes it easier - they don't have to check standards as we do. So 20 minutes JUST to do customs and we have to do standards as well. And 1,300 HGV moves vs 13 to 15 times that volume. With a sea crossing for added fun.
Let me know when you comprehend the issue.
FPT Yes Turkey is in the CTC and the Customs Union that you consider to be so important - and still faces problems.
At the Norway/Sweden border on the other hand the average wait time is 10 minutes, with 3-6 minutes of processing and all up the process takes 20 minutes including waiting and processing.
At the French/Swiss border the average time to cross the border is 20 minutes to 2 hours.
So we could be outside a customs union like Norway and Switzerland and have from a 20 minute total (crossing the Channel takes longer than that) or we could be in a customs union like Turkey and face a 24 hour queue.
Because the customs union isn't all you crack it up to be. Norway and Switzerland will be more our border future than third world Turkey will.
I thought it was some kind of spoof the first time I saw his material.
BREXIT NEGOTIATORS DRAWING CLOSE TO U.K.-EU TRADE AGREEMENT
Senior EU diplomat says UK-EU trade deal is imminent and may come as early as today
If true great news
Rose is 9 to win.
But he's also 6 to get over 5% of the vote. That looks a bit... out of kilter.
https://twitter.com/Brexit/status/1341756402839269379
If you think the likes of Carl Benjamin transition from YouTuber to potential MEP got smashed by contaxt with the media, this guy has so much baggage, you need a team of Sherpa's to shift it.
We'll see.
My dealbreaker is the same as its always been. Can we diverge unilaterally?
If we can, great. If we can't, pointless.
?
No deal will ever be as good as we had.
Happy Christmas!
I'm working for HMRC at the moment on the inland border sites programme.
It's nothing like you describe. For one thing they will only stop 1-2% of lorries and only do a full inspection of a far smaller number - dependent on cargo.
Stop bullshiting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_39l4HWVkY
Channel's got some interesting battles. Familiar ones from the medieval and classical worlds, but also from India and the like.
If there's punishment like tariffs for doing so then unless that's worse than No Deal then I don't see a problem with that unless that punishment is a one-way street. If the EU can apply tariffs on us if we diverge but we can't reciprocate that would be a problem. If the EU can apply tariffs on us if we do state aid but we can't reciprocate that would be a problem. If its reciprocal though then that is reasonable.
My other concern is who adjudicates. If its the ECJ that's a problem. If its a neutral arbitration procedure that's OK.
Rose is a conspiracy oddball linked to David Icke and others, with some no doubt interesting finance sources. He can afford plenty of paid for ads on social media and so on, and can no doubt also afford to keep his price propped up on the betting exchanges. But it's free money, and I will continue to take it.
Still, enjoy Manston Airport, oh and queuing with the Russians at immigration on your next holiday.
Richard Tyndall speaks very well against CUs (unlike rest of us is probably doing an honest days work today) Despite the attack on how it works, I think the key dislike of it is how much sovereignty and democracy it sucks from U.K. to Brussels. That in itself is a fair enough position, though not actually an effective attack on a CU itself if you are unbothered by the amount of sovereignty it sucks up for membership.
When I described it before Phillip you gave me kudos for understanding it. But you claim it was rejected in 2016 and subsequent elections, which I disagree with, I don’t think CU membership was properly discussed and rejected. In fact the time for that is yet to come. This is the new phase this never ending struggle is entering, where Brexit is in defence and under attack.
This is how I described it last time
The moment Britain quits the CU and starts a FTA our commerce instantly becomes more expensive. A customs union is the removal of tariff barriers between members, together with acceptance of a common tariff against non-members. Countries that export to the customs union only need to make a single payment once the goods have passed through the border. Once inside goods can move freely without additional tariffs. Tariff revenue may then be shared between members, with the possibility that the country that collects the duty retaining a share, between 20 and 25% in the European customs union to cover the additional administration costs associated with border trade. That is an awful lot of money that helps with administration costs to be surrendering at stroke of a pen to be absorbed by our businesses.
One of the strongest arguments for a customs union over a simple free-trade agreement, is that it solves the problem of trade deflection. Trade deflection occurs when non-members ship goods to a low tariff FTA member (or set up a subsidiary in the low tariff country) and re-ship to a high tariff FTA member. Hence, without a unified external tariff, trade flows become one-sided and further action is taken to deal with that. For example, assuming Europe operated a simple FTA, rather than a customs union, and if Germany imposes a high 40% tariff on Japanese cars, while France imposes just a 10% tariff, Japan would export its cars to French car dealers, and then re-sell them to Germany on a free-trade basis. This trade deflection is avoided if Germany and France (and others) form a customs union.
can Britain outside really compete with Europe on this basis? Inside the EU Britaingains from trade creation massively outweigh the losses from trade diversion, becuase
this isn’t just for final goods and resources, this is beneficial for supply chains integral to what the deindustrialising British economy has become, tariff free movement within the customs union for important supply chain.
I'd suspect commercial sensitivity - either the data are not being made public or the teams aren't allowed to comment on it. Mr Hancock [edit] does not seem to have the reputation of being someone to disagree with the principle of someone making money out of the NHS.
🥳 🎈
Will he whip to vote for the deal
Probably two years with the fast growth recorded in decades.
The alternatives are overtly supporting No Deal (as he's ruled out backing an extension to negotiations) or, on one of the crucial matters of our time, sitting it out because he wants to be able to criticise without troubling himself to express an opinion.
More restrictions in the SW
That said neither your fantasy nor mine will ever happen.
Well done that Burley woman.
If there is then it doesn't matter so much if there is - if there is then give notice you're terminating the agreement then move on.
Part of what made May's deal so horrific was no unilateral exit clause.
Your politics are blinding you.
Case data R (using the formula provided by MaxPB)
Local R in London
Sitting out on a decision like that is a very weak look, as it was when Clegg had a three line whip abstaining on a Lisbon referendum.