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Laying Brian Rose in the London Mayoral race – the best bet out there at the moment – politicalbetti

SystemSystem Posts: 12,168
edited December 2020 in General
imageLaying Brian Rose in the London Mayoral race – the best bet out there at the moment – politicalbetting.com

Thanks to Quincel (@PipsFunFacts) for this tip which it is hard to disagree with – betting against Brian Rose – the unexpected second favourite in the London mayoral race. He’s currently rated as a an 11/12% chance on the betting exchanges – Smarkets chart shown above.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,091
    edited December 2020
    Rose is a dodgy grifter. I would suspect he is.second favourite due to some market manipulation to boost his crowd funding grift. His last crowd funding scheme netted his £1 million, so I suspect he is trying to repeat the trick.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    Did somebody say Tice was also standing?
  • Laying Gammons in London is more fun.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    NY-22 continues to be absolutely utterly amazing

    https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1341755742827794434
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,091
    edited December 2020
    If anybody isn't familar with Brain Rose, search coffeezilla on YouTube. The guy has a whole series of videos exposing him.
  • If I was a polish lorry driver (for example) when someone wants a load delivered to UK in new year I would be putting a pretty high extra premium on the costs for the risk involved. Or just flatly refusing.

    No doubt Gove has thought all this through in his meticulous No Deal planning.

    Meanwhile, we hold out for a few more fish.
    The queues from 1st Jan won't go away if we sod fish and do a deal. We are leaving the customs union. We have required France to join us imposing a hard border at a crossing than does up to 10k trucks a day each way.

    Average processing time at external EU land border crossings is 45 minutes per vehicle. Which creates queues of 20 hours plus elsewhere with a fraction of our throughput.

    Deal or no deal, the queues will be there and will be catastrophic.
    How long will we hold out before rejoining customs union?
    I don't know - there is a fundamental lack of understanding on the subject:
    1. We hold all the cards - the EU will let us through
    2. German car manufacturers need us too much - the EU will let us through
    3. We've had enough of experts. As Philip rightly says they can all be ignored
    4. If we get a deal it means we Win which means we carry on like before only Better

    The reason why you create a customs union is to remove the physical border. By physical border I mean a barrier where traffic has to stop for inspection by customs officers. Even if we agreed the kind of standstill deal that Shagger insists we won't sign (we might - he is a liar...) if we want full checks then that creates the problem. And we DO want the checks apparently.

    Unless the deal is that we maintain complete alignment with the EU and do not have a physical border - and it almost certainly won't be - then our border with the EU will cease to function. You cannot process 10k trucks a day each way through a physical border. Do the maths. 10k trucks (per day each way) x 45 minutes (average crossing time at external EU borders) per truck = 312 man days on each side of the border assuming an even flow of vehicles 24 hours a day. As we have a sea crossing between the two sides of the border those vehicles cannot queue to the border which means they get corralled in Kent / Pas-de-Calais.

    Operation Brock will do two things. Vehicles bound for the Channel Tunnel will be queued first on the M20 between Junctions 8 and 9, then at Ashford, then there was an M26 option previously looked at. Vehicles bound for Dover go to Manston, then into an M20 style queue on both the A256 and A2. So at these locations they will need to provide food, toilets, showers.

    They will not. Because despite Brock existing the cabinet still think nothing will happen.
    What evidence do you have that it takes 45 minutes with the EU borders within the Common Transit Convention which we are members of in our own right (and will remain so even under No Deal)?

    You seem to be contrasting our arrangements with non-CTC nations which is a bit of a schoolboy error.
    Will the CTC remove the border? Queues of 30 hours have been reported at the Turkey - EU border (as an example https://www.ft.com/content/b4458652-f42d-11e6-8758-6876151821a6).

    45 minutes is the number quoted by logistics experts as opposed to keyboard warrior experts. You seem to be contrasting what they know with what you know and considering them equal. Which is a total schoolboy error.
    Turkey is in a customs union with the EU, that is what you want to replicate and you're linking that as something that doesn't work? 🤣🤣🤣

    Citation please on 45 minutes being quoted within the CTC because whenever you've been quoting borders recently you've been doing so for non-CTC nations which is not what the UK will be.

    How many hours long is the queue between EFTA and EU nations? They aren't in a customs union but are in the CTC.
    Turkey is in the CTC you tool. That is is also in a customs union should reduce the transit time more than we will get not in a customs union.

    Tell you what, you tell us what the average wait time is and what that means. Then we will compare and contrast what you said with all your logistics expertise against actual logistics professionals.
    Yes Turkey is in the CTC and the Customs Union that you consider to be so important - and still faces problems.

    At the Norway/Sweden border on the other hand the average wait time is 10 minutes, with 3-6 minutes of processing and all up the process takes 20 minutes including waiting and processing.

    At the French/Swiss border the average time to cross the border is 20 minutes to 2 hours.

    So we could be outside a customs union like Norway and Switzerland and have from a 20 minute total (crossing the Channel takes longer than that) or we could be in a customs union like Turkey and face a 24 hour queue.

    Because the customs union isn't all you crack it up to be. Norway and Switzerland will be more our border future than third world Turkey will.
    Good, so you've dropped your CTC strawman and started talking numbers? Great.

    Lets take your best case scenario - Norway / Sweden. Not that we can be like them because we aren't EEA members so it won't be as effortless. Their busiest crossing does 1,300 trucks a day total. Vs 18-20k per day total at Dover - Calais. Because they have automated it they manage to whip vehicles through in 20 minutes.

    We won't be as automated as them as EEA membership makes it easier - they don't have to check standards as we do. So 20 minutes JUST to do customs and we have to do standards as well. And 1,300 HGV moves vs 13 to 15 times that volume. With a sea crossing for added fun.

    Let me know when you comprehend the issue.
  • Reuters: Trade deal imminent.

    FPT

    If I was a polish lorry driver (for example) when someone wants a load delivered to UK in new year I would be putting a pretty high extra premium on the costs for the risk involved. Or just flatly refusing.

    No doubt Gove has thought all this through in his meticulous No Deal planning.

    Meanwhile, we hold out for a few more fish.
    The queues from 1st Jan won't go away if we sod fish and do a deal. We are leaving the customs union. We have required France to join us imposing a hard border at a crossing than does up to 10k trucks a day each way.

    Average processing time at external EU land border crossings is 45 minutes per vehicle. Which creates queues of 20 hours plus elsewhere with a fraction of our throughput.

    Deal or no deal, the queues will be there and will be catastrophic.
    How long will we hold out before rejoining customs union?
    I don't know - there is a fundamental lack of understanding on the subject:
    1. We hold all the cards - the EU will let us through
    2. German car manufacturers need us too much - the EU will let us through
    3. We've had enough of experts. As Philip rightly says they can all be ignored
    4. If we get a deal it means we Win which means we carry on like before only Better

    The reason why you create a customs union is to remove the physical border. By physical border I mean a barrier where traffic has to stop for inspection by customs officers. Even if we agreed the kind of standstill deal that Shagger insists we won't sign (we might - he is a liar...) if we want full checks then that creates the problem. And we DO want the checks apparently.

    Unless the deal is that we maintain complete alignment with the EU and do not have a physical border - and it almost certainly won't be - then our border with the EU will cease to function. You cannot process 10k trucks a day each way through a physical border. Do the maths. 10k trucks (per day each way) x 45 minutes (average crossing time at external EU borders) per truck = 312 man days on each side of the border assuming an even flow of vehicles 24 hours a day. As we have a sea crossing between the two sides of the border those vehicles cannot queue to the border which means they get corralled in Kent / Pas-de-Calais.

    Operation Brock will do two things. Vehicles bound for the Channel Tunnel will be queued first on the M20 between Junctions 8 and 9, then at Ashford, then there was an M26 option previously looked at. Vehicles bound for Dover go to Manston, then into an M20 style queue on both the A256 and A2. So at these locations they will need to provide food, toilets, showers.

    They will not. Because despite Brock existing the cabinet still think nothing will happen.
    What evidence do you have that it takes 45 minutes with the EU borders within the Common Transit Convention which we are members of in our own right (and will remain so even under No Deal)?

    You seem to be contrasting our arrangements with non-CTC nations which is a bit of a schoolboy error.
    Will the CTC remove the border? Queues of 30 hours have been reported at the Turkey - EU border (as an example https://www.ft.com/content/b4458652-f42d-11e6-8758-6876151821a6).

    45 minutes is the number quoted by logistics experts as opposed to keyboard warrior experts. You seem to be contrasting what they know with what you know and considering them equal. Which is a total schoolboy error.
    Turkey is in a customs union with the EU, that is what you want to replicate and you're linking that as something that doesn't work? 🤣🤣🤣

    Citation please on 45 minutes being quoted within the CTC because whenever you've been quoting borders recently you've been doing so for non-CTC nations which is not what the UK will be.

    How many hours long is the queue between EFTA and EU nations? They aren't in a customs union but are in the CTC.
    Turkey is in the CTC you tool. That is is also in a customs union should reduce the transit time more than we will get not in a customs union.

    Tell you what, you tell us what the average wait time is and what that means. Then we will compare and contrast what you said with all your logistics expertise against actual logistics professionals.
    Yes Turkey is in the CTC and the Customs Union that you consider to be so important - and still faces problems.

    At the Norway/Sweden border on the other hand the average wait time is 10 minutes, with 3-6 minutes of processing and all up the process takes 20 minutes including waiting and processing.

    At the French/Swiss border the average time to cross the border is 20 minutes to 2 hours.

    So we could be outside a customs union like Norway and Switzerland and have from a 20 minute total (crossing the Channel takes longer than that) or we could be in a customs union like Turkey and face a 24 hour queue.

    Because the customs union isn't all you crack it up to be. Norway and Switzerland will be more our border future than third world Turkey will.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    If anybody isn't familar with Brain Rose, search coffeezilla on YouTube. The guy has a whole series of videos exposing him.

    The photos alone should be enough to inspire extreme caution.

    I thought it was some kind of spoof the first time I saw his material.
  • Looks value. Normally I'd have to skip it but the lovely Sakhir result somewhat reinvigorated my Betfair account so I've put a little on.
  • Flash up on the Bloomberg terminals.

    BREXIT NEGOTIATORS DRAWING CLOSE TO U.K.-EU TRADE AGREEMENT
  • Breaking on Sky

    Senior EU diplomat says UK-EU trade deal is imminent and may come as early as today

    If true great news
  • Ha, just checked the Ladbrokes odds.

    Rose is 9 to win.

    But he's also 6 to get over 5% of the vote. That looks a bit... out of kilter.
  • Seems batteries are the sticking point now not fish.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,376

    Flash up on the Bloomberg terminals.

    BREXIT NEGOTIATORS DRAWING CLOSE TO U.K.-EU TRADE AGREEMENT

    As always, "You grunt, I'll groan" as Alistair Meeks first put it.
  • Breaking on Sky

    Senior EU diplomat says UK-EU trade deal is imminent and may come as early as today

    If true great news

    So long as its a good deal its fantastic news.
  • Breaking on Sky

    Senior EU diplomat says UK-EU trade deal is imminent and may come as early as today

    If true great news

    So long as its a good deal its fantastic news.
    To be honest any deal is fine by me
  • Chris said:

    If anybody isn't familar with Brain Rose, search coffeezilla on YouTube. The guy has a whole series of videos exposing him.

    The photos alone should be enough to inspire extreme caution.

    I thought it was some kind of spoof the first time I saw his material.
    He had David Icke as a regular on his YouTube show, is anti-lockdown / dodgy covid takes...while rinsing his followers for £1 million in donations to start his own "digital freedom platform", so YouTube can't censor him, that the never came to be.

    If you think the likes of Carl Benjamin transition from YouTuber to potential MEP got smashed by contaxt with the media, this guy has so much baggage, you need a team of Sherpa's to shift it.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    Thank god for that. Now we look forward to the bed-wetting.
  • Yeh, yeh, yeh.

    We'll see.

  • Breaking on Sky

    Senior EU diplomat says UK-EU trade deal is imminent and may come as early as today

    If true great news

    So long as its a good deal its fantastic news.
    To be honest any deal is fine by me
    Not me.

    My dealbreaker is the same as its always been. Can we diverge unilaterally?

    If we can, great. If we can't, pointless.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Lads, ...

    ?
    ?
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    Any deal is better than no deal.

    No deal will ever be as good as we had.

    Happy Christmas!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,091
    edited December 2020
    5...4....3...2...1....masses of tweets about how Boris capitulated...from Remainers and Leavers.
  • Breaking on Sky

    Senior EU diplomat says UK-EU trade deal is imminent and may come as early as today

    If true great news

    So long as its a good deal its fantastic news.

    We will not know the full detail for weeks, maybe months. But there will be enough in its headlines for Johnson to declare a victory and for it to be reported that way in the newspapers Tory voters read. My guess is that this is the government's only negotiating objective.

  • Exactly. These loons would complain even if Calais was part of the deal. They'll moan whatever because they want some non-existent world full of unicorns.

  • If I was a polish lorry driver (for example) when someone wants a load delivered to UK in new year I would be putting a pretty high extra premium on the costs for the risk involved. Or just flatly refusing.

    No doubt Gove has thought all this through in his meticulous No Deal planning.

    Meanwhile, we hold out for a few more fish.
    The queues from 1st Jan won't go away if we sod fish and do a deal. We are leaving the customs union. We have required France to join us imposing a hard border at a crossing than does up to 10k trucks a day each way.

    Average processing time at external EU land border crossings is 45 minutes per vehicle. Which creates queues of 20 hours plus elsewhere with a fraction of our throughput.

    Deal or no deal, the queues will be there and will be catastrophic.
    How long will we hold out before rejoining customs union?
    I don't know - there is a fundamental lack of understanding on the subject:
    1. We hold all the cards - the EU will let us through
    2. German car manufacturers need us too much - the EU will let us through
    3. We've had enough of experts. As Philip rightly says they can all be ignored
    4. If we get a deal it means we Win which means we carry on like before only Better

    The reason why you create a customs union is to remove the physical border. By physical border I mean a barrier where traffic has to stop for inspection by customs officers. Even if we agreed the kind of standstill deal that Shagger insists we won't sign (we might - he is a liar...) if we want full checks then that creates the problem. And we DO want the checks apparently.

    Unless the deal is that we maintain complete alignment with the EU and do not have a physical border - and it almost certainly won't be - then our border with the EU will cease to function. You cannot process 10k trucks a day each way through a physical border. Do the maths. 10k trucks (per day each way) x 45 minutes (average crossing time at external EU borders) per truck = 312 man days on each side of the border assuming an even flow of vehicles 24 hours a day. As we have a sea crossing between the two sides of the border those vehicles cannot queue to the border which means they get corralled in Kent / Pas-de-Calais.

    Operation Brock will do two things. Vehicles bound for the Channel Tunnel will be queued first on the M20 between Junctions 8 and 9, then at Ashford, then there was an M26 option previously looked at. Vehicles bound for Dover go to Manston, then into an M20 style queue on both the A256 and A2. So at these locations they will need to provide food, toilets, showers.

    They will not. Because despite Brock existing the cabinet still think nothing will happen.
    What evidence do you have that it takes 45 minutes with the EU borders within the Common Transit Convention which we are members of in our own right (and will remain so even under No Deal)?

    You seem to be contrasting our arrangements with non-CTC nations which is a bit of a schoolboy error.
    Will the CTC remove the border? Queues of 30 hours have been reported at the Turkey - EU border (as an example https://www.ft.com/content/b4458652-f42d-11e6-8758-6876151821a6).

    45 minutes is the number quoted by logistics experts as opposed to keyboard warrior experts. You seem to be contrasting what they know with what you know and considering them equal. Which is a total schoolboy error.
    Turkey is in a customs union with the EU, that is what you want to replicate and you're linking that as something that doesn't work? 🤣🤣🤣

    Citation please on 45 minutes being quoted within the CTC because whenever you've been quoting borders recently you've been doing so for non-CTC nations which is not what the UK will be.

    How many hours long is the queue between EFTA and EU nations? They aren't in a customs union but are in the CTC.
    Turkey is in the CTC you tool. That is is also in a customs union should reduce the transit time more than we will get not in a customs union.

    Tell you what, you tell us what the average wait time is and what that means. Then we will compare and contrast what you said with all your logistics expertise against actual logistics professionals.
    Yes Turkey is in the CTC and the Customs Union that you consider to be so important - and still faces problems.

    At the Norway/Sweden border on the other hand the average wait time is 10 minutes, with 3-6 minutes of processing and all up the process takes 20 minutes including waiting and processing.

    At the French/Swiss border the average time to cross the border is 20 minutes to 2 hours.

    So we could be outside a customs union like Norway and Switzerland and have from a 20 minute total (crossing the Channel takes longer than that) or we could be in a customs union like Turkey and face a 24 hour queue.

    Because the customs union isn't all you crack it up to be. Norway and Switzerland will be more our border future than third world Turkey will.
    Good, so you've dropped your CTC strawman and started talking numbers? Great.

    Lets take your best case scenario - Norway / Sweden. Not that we can be like them because we aren't EEA members so it won't be as effortless. Their busiest crossing does 1,300 trucks a day total. Vs 18-20k per day total at Dover - Calais. Because they have automated it they manage to whip vehicles through in 20 minutes.

    We won't be as automated as them as EEA membership makes it easier - they don't have to check standards as we do. So 20 minutes JUST to do customs and we have to do standards as well. And 1,300 HGV moves vs 13 to 15 times that volume. With a sea crossing for added fun.

    Let me know when you comprehend the issue.
    You don't know what you're talking about, despite you posing on here like an expert.

    I'm working for HMRC at the moment on the inland border sites programme.

    It's nothing like you describe. For one thing they will only stop 1-2% of lorries and only do a full inspection of a far smaller number - dependent on cargo.

    Stop bullshiting.
  • Sean_F said:

    Flash up on the Bloomberg terminals.

    BREXIT NEGOTIATORS DRAWING CLOSE TO U.K.-EU TRADE AGREEMENT

    As always, "You grunt, I'll groan" as Alistair Meeks first put it.
    I wish he hadn't put it quite like that.
  • I wonder if a deal is agreed, we move into January and the border copes with a bit of disruption - and then life goes on, no customs union etc necessary (just like Norway, Switzerland etc aren't in the customs union) whether certain people will be relieved there projections of doom were wrong . . . or distraught that Brexit hasn't become the disaster they expected.
  • Breaking on Sky

    Senior EU diplomat says UK-EU trade deal is imminent and may come as early as today

    If true great news

    So long as its a good deal its fantastic news.

    We will not know the full detail for weeks, maybe months. But there will be enough in its headlines for Johnson to declare a victory and for it to be reported that way in the newspapers Tory voters read. My guess is that this is the government's only negotiating objective.

    Well it worked last time, to be fair.
  • Hmm. I'm just wondering if the French ever paid the ransom on King John (captured at Poitiers by the Black Prince), and, if not, what the compound interest would make the sum now...
  • I wonder if a deal is agreed, we move into January and the border copes with a bit of disruption - and then life goes on, no customs union etc necessary (just like Norway, Switzerland etc aren't in the customs union) whether certain people will be relieved there projections of doom were wrong . . . or distraught that Brexit hasn't become the disaster they expected.

    I'll be relieved.
  • 5...4....3...2...1....masses of tweets about how Boris capitulated...from Remainers and Leavers.

    I'll be disappointed and denouncing Boris Johnson if the deal doesn't ensure the UK takes back Normandy & Calais or gets the French to honour the Treaty of Troyes.
  • If I was a polish lorry driver (for example) when someone wants a load delivered to UK in new year I would be putting a pretty high extra premium on the costs for the risk involved. Or just flatly refusing.

    No doubt Gove has thought all this through in his meticulous No Deal planning.

    Meanwhile, we hold out for a few more fish.
    The queues from 1st Jan won't go away if we sod fish and do a deal. We are leaving the customs union. We have required France to join us imposing a hard border at a crossing than does up to 10k trucks a day each way.

    Average processing time at external EU land border crossings is 45 minutes per vehicle. Which creates queues of 20 hours plus elsewhere with a fraction of our throughput.

    Deal or no deal, the queues will be there and will be catastrophic.
    How long will we hold out before rejoining customs union?
    I don't know - there is a fundamental lack of understanding on the subject:
    1. We hold all the cards - the EU will let us through
    2. German car manufacturers need us too much - the EU will let us through
    3. We've had enough of experts. As Philip rightly says they can all be ignored
    4. If we get a deal it means we Win which means we carry on like before only Better

    The reason why you create a customs union is to remove the physical border. By physical border I mean a barrier where traffic has to stop for inspection by customs officers. Even if we agreed the kind of standstill deal that Shagger insists we won't sign (we might - he is a liar...) if we want full checks then that creates the problem. And we DO want the checks apparently.

    Unless the deal is that we maintain complete alignment with the EU and do not have a physical border - and it almost certainly won't be - then our border with the EU will cease to function. You cannot process 10k trucks a day each way through a physical border. Do the maths. 10k trucks (per day each way) x 45 minutes (average crossing time at external EU borders) per truck = 312 man days on each side of the border assuming an even flow of vehicles 24 hours a day. As we have a sea crossing between the two sides of the border those vehicles cannot queue to the border which means they get corralled in Kent / Pas-de-Calais.

    Operation Brock will do two things. Vehicles bound for the Channel Tunnel will be queued first on the M20 between Junctions 8 and 9, then at Ashford, then there was an M26 option previously looked at. Vehicles bound for Dover go to Manston, then into an M20 style queue on both the A256 and A2. So at these locations they will need to provide food, toilets, showers.

    They will not. Because despite Brock existing the cabinet still think nothing will happen.
    What evidence do you have that it takes 45 minutes with the EU borders within the Common Transit Convention which we are members of in our own right (and will remain so even under No Deal)?

    You seem to be contrasting our arrangements with non-CTC nations which is a bit of a schoolboy error.
    Will the CTC remove the border? Queues of 30 hours have been reported at the Turkey - EU border (as an example https://www.ft.com/content/b4458652-f42d-11e6-8758-6876151821a6).

    45 minutes is the number quoted by logistics experts as opposed to keyboard warrior experts. You seem to be contrasting what they know with what you know and considering them equal. Which is a total schoolboy error.
    Turkey is in a customs union with the EU, that is what you want to replicate and you're linking that as something that doesn't work? 🤣🤣🤣

    Citation please on 45 minutes being quoted within the CTC because whenever you've been quoting borders recently you've been doing so for non-CTC nations which is not what the UK will be.

    How many hours long is the queue between EFTA and EU nations? They aren't in a customs union but are in the CTC.
    Turkey is in the CTC you tool. That is is also in a customs union should reduce the transit time more than we will get not in a customs union.

    Tell you what, you tell us what the average wait time is and what that means. Then we will compare and contrast what you said with all your logistics expertise against actual logistics professionals.
    Yes Turkey is in the CTC and the Customs Union that you consider to be so important - and still faces problems.

    At the Norway/Sweden border on the other hand the average wait time is 10 minutes, with 3-6 minutes of processing and all up the process takes 20 minutes including waiting and processing.

    At the French/Swiss border the average time to cross the border is 20 minutes to 2 hours.

    So we could be outside a customs union like Norway and Switzerland and have from a 20 minute total (crossing the Channel takes longer than that) or we could be in a customs union like Turkey and face a 24 hour queue.

    Because the customs union isn't all you crack it up to be. Norway and Switzerland will be more our border future than third world Turkey will.
    Good, so you've dropped your CTC strawman and started talking numbers? Great.

    Lets take your best case scenario - Norway / Sweden. Not that we can be like them because we aren't EEA members so it won't be as effortless. Their busiest crossing does 1,300 trucks a day total. Vs 18-20k per day total at Dover - Calais. Because they have automated it they manage to whip vehicles through in 20 minutes.

    We won't be as automated as them as EEA membership makes it easier - they don't have to check standards as we do. So 20 minutes JUST to do customs and we have to do standards as well. And 1,300 HGV moves vs 13 to 15 times that volume. With a sea crossing for added fun.

    Let me know when you comprehend the issue.
    You don't know what you're talking about, despite you posing on here like an expert.

    I'm working for HMRC at the moment on the inland border sites programme.

    It's nothing like you describe. For one thing they will only stop 1-2% of lorries and only do a full inspection of a far smaller number - dependent on cargo.

    Stop bullshiting.
    I have never claimed to be an expert. When you say "we" do you mean HMRC or the French? Are you saying that 98-99% of trucks that cross the French border will be waved through with no paperwork of any description? Blimey, thats even more friendly than Norway Sweden!
  • Mr. Eagles, you might like this video (and its sequel, when it comes out):

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K_39l4HWVkY

    Channel's got some interesting battles. Familiar ones from the medieval and classical worlds, but also from India and the like.
  • Breaking on Sky

    Senior EU diplomat says UK-EU trade deal is imminent and may come as early as today

    If true great news

    So long as its a good deal its fantastic news.

    We will not know the full detail for weeks, maybe months. But there will be enough in its headlines for Johnson to declare a victory and for it to be reported that way in the newspapers Tory voters read. My guess is that this is the government's only negotiating objective.

    Well it worked last time, to be fair.
    Brexiteers don't know what Brexit actually is anyway. Hence the ability to paint lipstick on a pig and claim its Marilyn Monroe.
  • Breaking on Sky

    Senior EU diplomat says UK-EU trade deal is imminent and may come as early as today

    If true great news

    So long as its a good deal its fantastic news.

    We will not know the full detail for weeks, maybe months. But there will be enough in its headlines for Johnson to declare a victory and for it to be reported that way in the newspapers Tory voters read. My guess is that this is the government's only negotiating objective.

    Well it worked last time, to be fair.

    Yep - but only because he got a general election straightaway. There are a few years until he can do that again. That may be enough time for even the dullest members of the ERG to realise they have been sold a pup.
  • If I was a polish lorry driver (for example) when someone wants a load delivered to UK in new year I would be putting a pretty high extra premium on the costs for the risk involved. Or just flatly refusing.

    No doubt Gove has thought all this through in his meticulous No Deal planning.

    Meanwhile, we hold out for a few more fish.
    The queues from 1st Jan won't go away if we sod fish and do a deal. We are leaving the customs union. We have required France to join us imposing a hard border at a crossing than does up to 10k trucks a day each way.

    Average processing time at external EU land border crossings is 45 minutes per vehicle. Which creates queues of 20 hours plus elsewhere with a fraction of our throughput.

    Deal or no deal, the queues will be there and will be catastrophic.
    How long will we hold out before rejoining customs union?
    I don't know - there is a fundamental lack of understanding on the subject:
    1. We hold all the cards - the EU will let us through
    2. German car manufacturers need us too much - the EU will let us through
    3. We've had enough of experts. As Philip rightly says they can all be ignored
    4. If we get a deal it means we Win which means we carry on like before only Better

    The reason why you create a customs union is to remove the physical border. By physical border I mean a barrier where traffic has to stop for inspection by customs officers. Even if we agreed the kind of standstill deal that Shagger insists we won't sign (we might - he is a liar...) if we want full checks then that creates the problem. And we DO want the checks apparently.

    Unless the deal is that we maintain complete alignment with the EU and do not have a physical border - and it almost certainly won't be - then our border with the EU will cease to function. You cannot process 10k trucks a day each way through a physical border. Do the maths. 10k trucks (per day each way) x 45 minutes (average crossing time at external EU borders) per truck = 312 man days on each side of the border assuming an even flow of vehicles 24 hours a day. As we have a sea crossing between the two sides of the border those vehicles cannot queue to the border which means they get corralled in Kent / Pas-de-Calais.

    Operation Brock will do two things. Vehicles bound for the Channel Tunnel will be queued first on the M20 between Junctions 8 and 9, then at Ashford, then there was an M26 option previously looked at. Vehicles bound for Dover go to Manston, then into an M20 style queue on both the A256 and A2. So at these locations they will need to provide food, toilets, showers.

    They will not. Because despite Brock existing the cabinet still think nothing will happen.
    What evidence do you have that it takes 45 minutes with the EU borders within the Common Transit Convention which we are members of in our own right (and will remain so even under No Deal)?

    You seem to be contrasting our arrangements with non-CTC nations which is a bit of a schoolboy error.
    Will the CTC remove the border? Queues of 30 hours have been reported at the Turkey - EU border (as an example https://www.ft.com/content/b4458652-f42d-11e6-8758-6876151821a6).

    45 minutes is the number quoted by logistics experts as opposed to keyboard warrior experts. You seem to be contrasting what they know with what you know and considering them equal. Which is a total schoolboy error.
    Turkey is in a customs union with the EU, that is what you want to replicate and you're linking that as something that doesn't work? 🤣🤣🤣

    Citation please on 45 minutes being quoted within the CTC because whenever you've been quoting borders recently you've been doing so for non-CTC nations which is not what the UK will be.

    How many hours long is the queue between EFTA and EU nations? They aren't in a customs union but are in the CTC.
    Turkey is in the CTC you tool. That is is also in a customs union should reduce the transit time more than we will get not in a customs union.

    Tell you what, you tell us what the average wait time is and what that means. Then we will compare and contrast what you said with all your logistics expertise against actual logistics professionals.
    Yes Turkey is in the CTC and the Customs Union that you consider to be so important - and still faces problems.

    At the Norway/Sweden border on the other hand the average wait time is 10 minutes, with 3-6 minutes of processing and all up the process takes 20 minutes including waiting and processing.

    At the French/Swiss border the average time to cross the border is 20 minutes to 2 hours.

    So we could be outside a customs union like Norway and Switzerland and have from a 20 minute total (crossing the Channel takes longer than that) or we could be in a customs union like Turkey and face a 24 hour queue.

    Because the customs union isn't all you crack it up to be. Norway and Switzerland will be more our border future than third world Turkey will.
    Good, so you've dropped your CTC strawman and started talking numbers? Great.

    Lets take your best case scenario - Norway / Sweden. Not that we can be like them because we aren't EEA members so it won't be as effortless. Their busiest crossing does 1,300 trucks a day total. Vs 18-20k per day total at Dover - Calais. Because they have automated it they manage to whip vehicles through in 20 minutes.

    We won't be as automated as them as EEA membership makes it easier - they don't have to check standards as we do. So 20 minutes JUST to do customs and we have to do standards as well. And 1,300 HGV moves vs 13 to 15 times that volume. With a sea crossing for added fun.

    Let me know when you comprehend the issue.
    You don't know what you're talking about, despite you posing on here like an expert.

    I'm working for HMRC at the moment on the inland border sites programme.

    It's nothing like you describe. For one thing they will only stop 1-2% of lorries and only do a full inspection of a far smaller number - dependent on cargo.

    Stop bullshiting.
    I have never claimed to be an expert. When you say "we" do you mean HMRC or the French? Are you saying that 98-99% of trucks that cross the French border will be waved through with no paperwork of any description? Blimey, thats even more friendly than Norway Sweden!
    Incidentally if it is as you expertly inform us then are we not wasting our time with all of this? We don't need the truck parks or Brock or a computer system or Kent border or all of the customs and standards checks if almost every vehicle will be waived through as now.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,881

    If I was a polish lorry driver (for example) when someone wants a load delivered to UK in new year I would be putting a pretty high extra premium on the costs for the risk involved. Or just flatly refusing.

    No doubt Gove has thought all this through in his meticulous No Deal planning.

    Meanwhile, we hold out for a few more fish.
    The queues from 1st Jan won't go away if we sod fish and do a deal. We are leaving the customs union. We have required France to join us imposing a hard border at a crossing than does up to 10k trucks a day each way.

    Average processing time at external EU land border crossings is 45 minutes per vehicle. Which creates queues of 20 hours plus elsewhere with a fraction of our throughput.

    Deal or no deal, the queues will be there and will be catastrophic.
    How long will we hold out before rejoining customs union?
    I don't know - there is a fundamental lack of understanding on the subject:
    1. We hold all the cards - the EU will let us through
    2. German car manufacturers need us too much - the EU will let us through
    3. We've had enough of experts. As Philip rightly says they can all be ignored
    4. If we get a deal it means we Win which means we carry on like before only Better

    The reason why you create a customs union is to remove the physical border. By physical border I mean a barrier where traffic has to stop for inspection by customs officers. Even if we agreed the kind of standstill deal that Shagger insists we won't sign (we might - he is a liar...) if we want full checks then that creates the problem. And we DO want the checks apparently.

    Unless the deal is that we maintain complete alignment with the EU and do not have a physical border - and it almost certainly won't be - then our border with the EU will cease to function. You cannot process 10k trucks a day each way through a physical border. Do the maths. 10k trucks (per day each way) x 45 minutes (average crossing time at external EU borders) per truck = 312 man days on each side of the border assuming an even flow of vehicles 24 hours a day. As we have a sea crossing between the two sides of the border those vehicles cannot queue to the border which means they get corralled in Kent / Pas-de-Calais.

    Operation Brock will do two things. Vehicles bound for the Channel Tunnel will be queued first on the M20 between Junctions 8 and 9, then at Ashford, then there was an M26 option previously looked at. Vehicles bound for Dover go to Manston, then into an M20 style queue on both the A256 and A2. So at these locations they will need to provide food, toilets, showers.

    They will not. Because despite Brock existing the cabinet still think nothing will happen.
    What evidence do you have that it takes 45 minutes with the EU borders within the Common Transit Convention which we are members of in our own right (and will remain so even under No Deal)?

    You seem to be contrasting our arrangements with non-CTC nations which is a bit of a schoolboy error.
    Will the CTC remove the border? Queues of 30 hours have been reported at the Turkey - EU border (as an example https://www.ft.com/content/b4458652-f42d-11e6-8758-6876151821a6).

    45 minutes is the number quoted by logistics experts as opposed to keyboard warrior experts. You seem to be contrasting what they know with what you know and considering them equal. Which is a total schoolboy error.
    Turkey is in a customs union with the EU, that is what you want to replicate and you're linking that as something that doesn't work? 🤣🤣🤣

    Citation please on 45 minutes being quoted within the CTC because whenever you've been quoting borders recently you've been doing so for non-CTC nations which is not what the UK will be.

    How many hours long is the queue between EFTA and EU nations? They aren't in a customs union but are in the CTC.
    Turkey is in the CTC you tool. That is is also in a customs union should reduce the transit time more than we will get not in a customs union.

    Tell you what, you tell us what the average wait time is and what that means. Then we will compare and contrast what you said with all your logistics expertise against actual logistics professionals.
    Yes Turkey is in the CTC and the Customs Union that you consider to be so important - and still faces problems.

    At the Norway/Sweden border on the other hand the average wait time is 10 minutes, with 3-6 minutes of processing and all up the process takes 20 minutes including waiting and processing.

    At the French/Swiss border the average time to cross the border is 20 minutes to 2 hours.

    So we could be outside a customs union like Norway and Switzerland and have from a 20 minute total (crossing the Channel takes longer than that) or we could be in a customs union like Turkey and face a 24 hour queue.

    Because the customs union isn't all you crack it up to be. Norway and Switzerland will be more our border future than third world Turkey will.
    Good, so you've dropped your CTC strawman and started talking numbers? Great.

    Lets take your best case scenario - Norway / Sweden. Not that we can be like them because we aren't EEA members so it won't be as effortless. Their busiest crossing does 1,300 trucks a day total. Vs 18-20k per day total at Dover - Calais. Because they have automated it they manage to whip vehicles through in 20 minutes.

    We won't be as automated as them as EEA membership makes it easier - they don't have to check standards as we do. So 20 minutes JUST to do customs and we have to do standards as well. And 1,300 HGV moves vs 13 to 15 times that volume. With a sea crossing for added fun.

    Let me know when you comprehend the issue.
    You don't know what you're talking about, despite you posing on here like an expert.

    I'm working for HMRC at the moment on the inland border sites programme.

    It's nothing like you describe. For one thing they will only stop 1-2% of lorries and only do a full inspection of a far smaller number - dependent on cargo.

    Stop bullshiting.
    I have never claimed to be an expert. When you say "we" do you mean HMRC or the French? Are you saying that 98-99% of trucks that cross the French border will be waved through with no paperwork of any description? Blimey, thats even more friendly than Norway Sweden!
    Well, I also wonder what happens when the lorries come back the other way. There's no reason to expect the French to be remotely so negligent at guarding their borders.
  • Breaking on Sky

    Senior EU diplomat says UK-EU trade deal is imminent and may come as early as today

    If true great news

    So long as its a good deal its fantastic news.
    To be honest any deal is fine by me
    Not me.

    My dealbreaker is the same as its always been. Can we diverge unilaterally?

    If we can, great. If we can't, pointless.

    If that's your bar, you are going to be very happy. There is no deal that can stop us from diverging. The issue has always been what happens if we do.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    BBC pre-briefing leaking appears to suggest it’ll be the rest of the SE that will be moved to T4 on Boxing Day, with other areas of the country moving up but not to T4
  • Scott_xP said:
    The best post you have ever done Scott
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,933
    Really?
  • Breaking on Sky

    Senior EU diplomat says UK-EU trade deal is imminent and may come as early as today

    If true great news

    So long as its a good deal its fantastic news.
    To be honest any deal is fine by me
    Not me.

    My dealbreaker is the same as its always been. Can we diverge unilaterally?

    If we can, great. If we can't, pointless.

    If that's your bar, you are going to be very happy. There is no deal that can stop us from diverging. The issue has always been what happens if we do.

    Theresa May's backstop did.

    If there's punishment like tariffs for doing so then unless that's worse than No Deal then I don't see a problem with that unless that punishment is a one-way street. If the EU can apply tariffs on us if we diverge but we can't reciprocate that would be a problem. If the EU can apply tariffs on us if we do state aid but we can't reciprocate that would be a problem. If its reciprocal though then that is reasonable.

    My other concern is who adjudicates. If its the ECJ that's a problem. If its a neutral arbitration procedure that's OK.
  • Thank fuck for deals. It had to happen. It's been done.
  • On topic, someone or some group is clearly propping up Rose's price.

    Rose is a conspiracy oddball linked to David Icke and others, with some no doubt interesting finance sources. He can afford plenty of paid for ads on social media and so on, and can no doubt also afford to keep his price propped up on the betting exchanges. But it's free money, and I will continue to take it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    £/$ moving strongly up
  • Clinging on to the end - No 10 announces deal is done via Scott's post
  • RobD said:
    Post-Brexit post-transition boom. 📈
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380
    edited December 2020
    RobD said:

    Really?
    It is for those of us who believed the Referendum was a stupid idea, and everything from that date more so.

    Still, enjoy Manston Airport, oh and queuing with the Russians at immigration on your next holiday.
  • Breaking on Sky

    Senior EU diplomat says UK-EU trade deal is imminent and may come as early as today

    If true great news

    So long as its a good deal its fantastic news.
    To be honest any deal is fine by me
    Not me.

    My dealbreaker is the same as its always been. Can we diverge unilaterally?

    If we can, great. If we can't, pointless.

    If that's your bar, you are going to be very happy. There is no deal that can stop us from diverging. The issue has always been what happens if we do.

    Theresa May's backstop did.

    If there's punishment like tariffs for doing so then unless that's worse than No Deal then I don't see a problem with that unless that punishment is a one-way street. If the EU can apply tariffs on us if we diverge but we can't reciprocate that would be a problem. If the EU can apply tariffs on us if we do state aid but we can't reciprocate that would be a problem. If its reciprocal though then that is reasonable.

    My other concern is who adjudicates. If its the ECJ that's a problem. If its a neutral arbitration procedure that's OK.

    You're going to be very happy, Phil.

  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362
    Fpt. Customs Union


    Richard Tyndall speaks very well against CUs (unlike rest of us is probably doing an honest days work today) Despite the attack on how it works, I think the key dislike of it is how much sovereignty and democracy it sucks from U.K. to Brussels. That in itself is a fair enough position, though not actually an effective attack on a CU itself if you are unbothered by the amount of sovereignty it sucks up for membership.

    When I described it before Phillip you gave me kudos for understanding it. But you claim it was rejected in 2016 and subsequent elections, which I disagree with, I don’t think CU membership was properly discussed and rejected. In fact the time for that is yet to come. This is the new phase this never ending struggle is entering, where Brexit is in defence and under attack.

    This is how I described it last time

    The moment Britain quits the CU and starts a FTA our commerce instantly becomes more expensive. A customs union is the removal of tariff barriers between members, together with acceptance of a common tariff against non-members. Countries that export to the customs union only need to make a single payment once the goods have passed through the border. Once inside goods can move freely without additional tariffs. Tariff revenue may then be shared between members, with the possibility that the country that collects the duty retaining a share, between 20 and 25% in the European customs union to cover the additional administration costs associated with border trade. That is an awful lot of money that helps with administration costs to be surrendering at stroke of a pen to be absorbed by our businesses.

    One of the strongest arguments for a customs union over a simple free-trade agreement, is that it solves the problem of trade deflection. Trade deflection occurs when non-members ship goods to a low tariff FTA member (or set up a subsidiary in the low tariff country) and re-ship to a high tariff FTA member. Hence, without a unified external tariff, trade flows become one-sided and further action is taken to deal with that. For example, assuming Europe operated a simple FTA, rather than a customs union, and if Germany imposes a high 40% tariff on Japanese cars, while France imposes just a 10% tariff, Japan would export its cars to French car dealers, and then re-sell them to Germany on a free-trade basis. This trade deflection is avoided if Germany and France (and others) form a customs union.
    can Britain outside really compete with Europe on this basis? Inside the EU Britaingains from trade creation massively outweigh the losses from trade diversion, becuase
    this isn’t just for final goods and resources, this is beneficial for supply chains integral to what the deindustrialising British economy has become, tariff free movement within the customs union for important supply chain.
  • If the deal is done let's hope it's status quo ante on standards and customs.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380

    RobD said:
    Post-Brexit post-transition boom. 📈
    ...and then you woke up.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 42,881
    edited December 2020

    Nigelb said:
    That's some interesting, factual data.

    I still can't find a good theoretical analysis of the effects of varying levels of accuracy in tests.

    Seems strange that the modelling types haven't been all over this....
    FPT

    I'd suspect commercial sensitivity - either the data are not being made public or the teams aren't allowed to comment on it. Mr Hancock [edit] does not seem to have the reputation of being someone to disagree with the principle of someone making money out of the NHS.
  • Theresa May's backstop did.

    If there's punishment like tariffs for doing so then unless that's worse than No Deal then I don't see a problem with that unless that punishment is a one-way street. If the EU can apply tariffs on us if we diverge but we can't reciprocate that would be a problem. If the EU can apply tariffs on us if we do state aid but we can't reciprocate that would be a problem. If its reciprocal though then that is reasonable.

    My other concern is who adjudicates. If its the ECJ that's a problem. If its a neutral arbitration procedure that's OK.

    You're going to be very happy, Phil.


    🥳 🎈
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    Hancock looking quite shaken by the magnitude of this.
  • On the assumption the deal is done the next big test for Starmer comes with the HOC vote

    Will he whip to vote for the deal
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380

    On the assumption the deal is done the next big test for Starmer comes with the HOC vote

    Will he whip to vote for the deal

    Let's hope he is not that stupid.
  • Hancock looking quite shaken by the magnitude of this.

    I detect him holding back a tear
  • RobD said:
    Post-Brexit post-transition boom. 📈
    ...and then you woke up.
    I predict very strong post-transition growth in 2021 📈 and 2022 📈

    Probably two years with the fast growth recorded in decades.
  • Hancock looking quite shaken by the magnitude of this.

    I don't blame him.
  • Mr. Pete, Starmer should back the deal, unless there's something horrendous in it.

    The alternatives are overtly supporting No Deal (as he's ruled out backing an extension to negotiations) or, on one of the crucial matters of our time, sitting it out because he wants to be able to criticise without troubling himself to express an opinion.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,868
    More of E & SE go into T4

    More restrictions in the SW
  • On the assumption the deal is done the next big test for Starmer comes with the HOC vote

    Will he whip to vote for the deal

    Almost no-one will care. What is clear is that the House of Commons will get absolutely no time to give the deal any serious scrutiny. The question before MPs will essentially be: "Is any deal better than a no deal?"

  • Tier 3 and Tier 2 for more of the nation too as well as the SE and E.
  • Another new strain
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    I am amazed anywhere is staying in Tier 2.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380

    RobD said:
    Post-Brexit post-transition boom. 📈
    ...and then you woke up.
    I predict very strong post-transition growth in 2021 📈 and 2022 📈

    Probably two years with the fast growth recorded in decades.
    My fantasies are better, Miranda Kerr and Heidi Klum feature in a threesome.

    That said neither your fantasy nor mine will ever happen.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    This Saffer strain must be fecking nasty.
  • Has Hancock made South Africa a no go travel destination world wide
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Another new strain

    Imported from South Africa, because we permitted it to be. Biggest fail of the pandemic so far.

    Well done that Burley woman.
  • Mr. Pete, Starmer should back the deal, unless there's something horrendous in it.

    The alternatives are overtly supporting No Deal (as he's ruled out backing an extension to negotiations) or, on one of the crucial matters of our time, sitting it out because he wants to be able to criticise without troubling himself to express an opinion.

    How will anyone know if there is anything horrendous in it? The agreement is going to be hundreds - if not thousands - of pages long.

  • RobD said:
    Post-Brexit post-transition boom. 📈
    ...and then you woke up.
    I predict very strong post-transition growth in 2021 📈 and 2022 📈

    Probably two years with the fast growth recorded in decades.
    My fantasies are better, Miranda Kerr and Heidi Klum feature in a threesome.

    That said neither your fantasy nor mine will ever happen.
    Mine's not a fantasy, it is economic reality. What odds will you give me that 2021 📈 and 2022 📈 will be better than historical averages?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,380

    Mr. Pete, Starmer should back the deal, unless there's something horrendous in it.

    The alternatives are overtly supporting No Deal (as he's ruled out backing an extension to negotiations) or, on one of the crucial matters of our time, sitting it out because he wants to be able to criticise without troubling himself to express an opinion.

    Johnson has a majority of 80, he does not require Labour to back his "pig in a poke" deal. This is a Tory project, Labour should steer well clear. Abstain!
  • Mr. Pete, Starmer should back the deal, unless there's something horrendous in it.

    The alternatives are overtly supporting No Deal (as he's ruled out backing an extension to negotiations) or, on one of the crucial matters of our time, sitting it out because he wants to be able to criticise without troubling himself to express an opinion.

    How will anyone know if there is anything horrendous in it? The agreement is going to be hundreds - if not thousands - of pages long.

    Is there a termination clause is the first thing to be identified.

    If there is then it doesn't matter so much if there is - if there is then give notice you're terminating the agreement then move on.

    Part of what made May's deal so horrific was no unilateral exit clause.
  • Mr. Pete, Starmer should back the deal, unless there's something horrendous in it.

    The alternatives are overtly supporting No Deal (as he's ruled out backing an extension to negotiations) or, on one of the crucial matters of our time, sitting it out because he wants to be able to criticise without troubling himself to express an opinion.

    Johnson has a majority of 80, he does not require Labour to back his "pig in a poke" deal. This is a Tory project, Labour should steer well clear. Abstain!
    Captain Hindsight to show no leadership on the greatest issue of the day again?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    Carnyx said:

    Nigelb said:
    That's some interesting, factual data.

    I still can't find a good theoretical analysis of the effects of varying levels of accuracy in tests.

    Seems strange that the modelling types haven't been all over this....
    FPT

    I'd suspect commercial sensitivity - either the data are not being made public or the teams aren't allowed to comment on it. Mr Hancock [edit] does not seem to have the reputation of being someone to disagree with the principle of someone making money out of the NHS.
    No - I am talking about building a theoretical model. The effects of 99% efficacy, 90%, 85% etc

    Your politics are blinding you.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398

    Mr. Pete, Starmer should back the deal, unless there's something horrendous in it.

    The alternatives are overtly supporting No Deal (as he's ruled out backing an extension to negotiations) or, on one of the crucial matters of our time, sitting it out because he wants to be able to criticise without troubling himself to express an opinion.

    Johnson has a majority of 80, he does not require Labour to back his "pig in a poke" deal. This is a Tory project, Labour should steer well clear. Abstain!
    Yep - there is no need for the opposition to do anything beyond taking the day off and letting Boris and co own the entire operation.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 50,357
    From the last thread -

    Case data R (using the formula provided by MaxPB)

    image

    Local R in London

    image
  • Super mutant south African covid already in the UK...
  • Mr. Observer, lucky for Starmer he's Leader of the Opposition and has plenty of staff to help him read it more rapidly than one bloke by himself could.

    Sitting out on a decision like that is a very weak look, as it was when Clegg had a three line whip abstaining on a Lisbon referendum.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,209

    RobD said:
    Post-Brexit post-transition boom. 📈
    ...and then you woke up.
    I predict very strong post-transition growth in 2021 📈 and 2022 📈

    Probably two years with the fast growth recorded in decades.
    I would expect there'll be quite a lot of post-CV19 bounce. But I'd be surprised if there was any meaningful near term additional economic growth driven by Brexit.
This discussion has been closed.